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    Conditional Probability

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    sophie
    The document defines conditional probability and provides examples to illustrate key concepts. Conditional probability is the probability of event A given event B, written as P(A|B). It gives formulas for joint probability when events are dependent or independent. Example problems demonstrate calculating probabilities for events related to student demographics, defective televisions, and card draws from a deck. The problems show how to find probabilities like the chance of two specific cards being drawn or at least one of several events occurring.

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    Conditional Probability

    Uploaded by

    sophie
    78 views4 pages
    The document defines conditional probability and provides examples to illustrate key concepts. Conditional probability is the probability of event A given event B, written as P(A|B). It gives formulas for joint probability when events are dependent or independent. Example problems demonstrate calculating probabilities for events related to student demographics, defective televisions, and card draws from a deck. The problems show how to find probabilities like the chance of two specific cards being drawn or at least one of several events occurring.

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    STAT400

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    The document defines conditional probability and provides examples to illustrate key concepts. Conditional probability is the probability of event A given event B, written as P(A|B). It gives formulas for joint probability when events are dependent or independent. Example problems demonstrate calculating probabilities for events related to student demographics, defective televisions, and card draws from a deck. The problems show how to find probabilities like the chance of two specific cards being drawn or at least one of several events occurring.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    78 views4 pages

    Conditional Probability

    Uploaded by

    sophie
    The document defines conditional probability and provides examples to illustrate key concepts. Conditional probability is the probability of event A given event B, written as P(A|B). It gives formulas for joint probability when events are dependent or independent. Example problems demonstrate calculating probabilities for events related to student demographics, defective televisions, and card draws from a deck. The problems show how to find probabilities like the chance of two specific cards being drawn or at least one of several events occurring.

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    Conditional Probability

    STAT 400
    August 29, 2016
    Definition: If Ai and Aj are not independent, the joint probability is,
    P (Ai Aj ) = P (Ai |Aj ) P (Aj )
    P (Ai Aj ) = P (Aj |Ai ) P (Ai )
    The probability of Ai given Aj is,
    P (Ai |Aj ) =

    P (Ai Aj )
    P (Aj )

    Notice that if Ai and Aj are independent that P (Ai |Aj ) = P (Ai ).


    If P (B) > 0,
    1. P (A|B) 0
    2. P (B|B) = 1
    3. If Ai are mutually exclusive events for i = 1 to k,
    

    P ki=1 Ai |B =

    k
    X

    P (Ai |B)

    i=1

    P (
    i=1 Ai |B) =

    P (Ai |B)

    i=1

    where the last equality includes a countable number of events.

    STAT 400

    Conditional Probability

    Example 1: It is known that 30% of all the students at Anytown College live off campus. Suppose
    also that 48% of all the students are females. Of the female students, 25% live off campus.
    a. What is the probability that a randomly selected student is a female and lives off campus?
    Note that the following table shows the probabilities for all of the events considered in
    this problem.
    Gender

    Off-Campus

    On-Campus

    Total

    Females

    .12

    0.36

    0.48

    Males

    0.18

    0.34

    .52

    Total

    0.30

    0.70

    1.00

    We can use the conditional probability identity to show that P (F OF F ) =


    P (F ) P (OF F |F ) = (0.48) 0.25 = 0.12.
    b. What proportion of off-campus students are female?

    P (F |OF F ) =

    0.12
    2
    P (F OF F )
    =
    =
    P (OF F )
    0.30
    5

    c. What proportion of male students live off-campus?


    Note that P (M OF F ) = P (OF F ) P (F OF F ) = 0.18.

    P (OF F |M ) =

    P (M OF F )
    0.18
    9
    =
    =
    0.346
    P (M )
    0.52
    26

    Stepanov, Culpepper

    STAT 400

    Conditional Probability

    Example 2: Suppose that Joes Discount Store has received a shipment of 25 television sets, 5 of
    which are defective. On the following day, 2 television sets are sold.
    a. Find the probability that both of the television sets are defective (D).
    

    P (D D) = P 1st Def ective P 2nd Def ective|1st Def ective =

    5
    25

    

    4
    1
    =
    24
    30
    

    b. Find the probability that at least one of the two television sets sold is defective.
    We can approach this problem at least two ways. The first is to calculate the probability
    that neither defective TV is sold and compute the compliment.

    P (At least 1 D) = 1 P 1st N ot Def ective P 2nd N ot Def ective|1st N ot Def ective
    20
    =1
    25
    

    

    11
    19
    =
    24
    30
    

    Alternatively, we could add the probabilities of 1 D and 2 Ds

    P (At least 1 D) = P (D Dc ) + P (Dc D) + P (D D)


    5
    20
    20
    5
    5
    =
    +
    +
    25
    24
    25
    24
    25
    5
    5
    1
    11
    =
    +
    +
    = .
    30 30 30
    30
    

    

    

    

    4
    24

    Stepanov, Culpepper

    STAT 400

    Conditional Probability

    Example 3 Cards are drawn one-by-one without replacement from a standard 52-card deck. What
    is the probability of the following:
    a. Both the first and second cards selected are Hearts (H)?
    P (H H) =

    1 12
    1
    =
    4 51
    17
    

    b. The first two cards drawn are a H and Club (C) (or C and H)?
    13
    13
    13
    13
    P (H C) + P (C H) =
    +
    52
    51
    52
    51
      
      
    13
    1
    13
    1
    =
    =2
    4
    51
    2
    51
    

    

    

    c. There are at least two Hs among the first three cards drawn?
    Note that
    P (at least 2 H in 3 draws|M ) =P (H H H) + P (H c H H) + P (H H c H)
    + P (H H H c )

    These probabilities are presented below:


    13
    P (H H H) =
    52
    

    

    12
    51

    

    11
    50

    P (H c H H) =

    39
    52

    

    13
    51

    

    12
    50

    P (H H c H) =

    13
    52

    

    39
    51

    

    12
    50

    P (H H H c ) =

    13
    52

    

    12
    51

    

    39
    50

    Adding these probabilities up yields

    19,968
    132,600

    0.151.

    Stepanov, Culpepper

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