Pinkerton (A)

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The document analyzes the financial performance and valuation of CPP and Pinkerton companies using various metrics like revenue, costs, profits, cash flows and ratios over multiple years.

The analysis looks at metrics like revenue, gross profit, operating expenses, EBIT, EBIAT, FCFF, NWC, tax rate, net PPE, WACC for CPP and Pinkerton across years 1987-1992.

The valuation uses DCF method with both positive and negative scenarios. It also calculates terminal value and equity value. Comparable company multiples are also referenced.

page 3

4 % sales
page 3

net rev
cogs
gross profit
% of rev

1987
408.3
381.7
26.6
6.51%

operating exp % of rev

6.51%

net revenue
net PPE
delta net ppe
NWC (% changes)
NWC
delta NWC
NWC (% changes)
NWC
delta NWC

Net revenue
gross profit margin
operating expenses
EBIT
EBIAT = 34 % tax
less delta net ppe
delta NWC
FCFF
delta NWC
FCFF
discounted FCFF
discounted FCFF
Discount Rate
equity beta levered
assume risk premium
COE
after tax COD
debt
equity
D/V
E/V

1987
408.3
17.6

37.7

37.7

1987
408.3
26.6
27
-0.4

1988
367.47
14.6988
-2.9012
8.60%
31.60242
-6.09758
9.50%
34.90965
-2.79035
1988
367.47
31.23495
22.0482
9.18675
6.063255
-2.9012
-6.09758
15.062035
-2.79035
11.754805
13.4269300469
10.4787264436

0.89
5%
13.03%
using exh 5
6.53%
assume bond is A rated
10.6
70.2
exh 4
0.13118812
0.86881188

wacc
D/E
unleverd beta

12.18%
0.15099715
0.80934245

CPP
debt.
equity

3.1
18

Pinkerton
interest expense
0.4
long term debt at beginning of yr 4.1
cost of debt
9.80%
levered beta
Cost of equity

positive scenario

0.90133771
13.09%
1988
0
0
0
0

EBIT
EBIAT 34 % tax
less CF adjusted
FCFF
discounted FCFF
TV
PV
EV

28.9642986
16.3052847
19.584187

Final EV

137.529014

1988

6.61%
page 3

Revenue
operating expense
op exp proj
proj op. exp
saving
after tax saving
dsicounted after tax saving

367.47
24.3
6%
22.0482
2.2518
1.486188
1.3248503481

PRICING
1988
449.13
29.238363
8.50%
31.23495
1.996587

revenue
current GPM
revised GPM
revised GPM
increased GP

408.3
6.51%

sales rev
sales rev

408.3
408.3

449.13
367.47

1987
408.3
37.7
9.23%

1988
367.47

Non cash Working capital

Sales revenue
NWC
NWC % of SR
revised NWC
Revised NWC
delta NWC
delta NWC in positive scenario
decrease in delta NWC
Discounted NWC

Particulars
Cash
A/R

33.93
8.60%
31.60242
-3.77
-6.09758
2.32758
2.0749024842

1989
326.64
13.0656
-1.6332
7.40%
24.17136
-7.43106
9.50%
31.0308
-3.87885

1990
285.81
11.4324
-1.6332
6.20%
17.72022
-6.45114
9.50%
27.15195
-3.87885

1991
300.1005
12.00402
0.57162
6.20%
18.606231
0.886011
9.50%
28.509548
1.3575975

1992
315.10553 growth
12.604221
0.600201
6.20%
19.536543 positive scenario
0.9303116
9.50%
29.935025
negative scenario
1.4254774

1989
326.64
29.3976
19.27176
10.12584
6.6830544
-1.6332
-7.43106
15.747314
-3.87885
12.195104
14.037817
9.6910687

1990
285.81
27.15195
16.57698
10.57497
6.9794802
-1.6332
-6.45114
15.06382
-3.87885
12.49153
13.428521
8.8490136

1991
300.1005
30.760301
17.405829
13.354472
8.8139517
0.57162
0.886011
7.3563207
1.3575975
6.8847342
6.557733
4.347699

1992
315.10553
32.298316
18.27612
14.022196
9.2546493
0.600201
0.9303116
positive scenario
7.7241367
1.4254774
negative scenario
7.2289709
6.8856196
4.0695074

bond is A rated
no. of shares outstanding * share price

assuming data for Pinkerton same as CPP

assume D/E same as pinkerton

1989
1.2
0.792
0
0.792
0.6293777

1990
1.5
0.99
0
0.99
0.7013171

1991
2
1.32
0
1.32
0.833578

1992
3
1.98
0
1.98
1.1146296

1989

1990

1991

1992

326.64
21.6
5.90%
19.27176
2.32824
1.5366384
1.2211186
TV
PV
EV

285.81
18.9
5.80%
16.57698
2.32302
1.5331932
1.0861157
24.727107
13.919982
19.520257

300.1005
19.845
5.80%
17.405829
2.439171
1.6098529
1.0166196

315.10553
20.83725
5.80%
18.27612
2.5611296
1.6903455
0.9515702

1989
489.5517
31.869816
9%
29.3976
-2.472216

1990
528.71584
34.419401
9.50%
27.15195
-7.267451

1991
565.72594
36.828759
10.25%
30.760301
-6.068458

1992
599.6695
39.038485
10.25%
in positive scenario
32.298316
-6.740168

489.5517
326.64

528.71584 565.72594 599.6695


285.81
300.1005 315.10553

1989
326.64

1990
285.81

1991
300.1005

1992
315.10553

30.16
7.40%
24.17136
-3.77
-7.43106
3.66106
2.9093301

26.39
6.20%
17.72022
-3.77
-6.45114
2.68114
1.8993225

27.7095
6.20%
18.606231
1.3195
0.886011
0.433489
0.2737476

29.094975
6.20%
19.536543
1.385475
0.9303115
0.4551635
0.2562316

difference

GPM
operating exp growth

5%

1988
8.50%
8.50%
6%

1989
9.00%
8.75%
5.90%

Not changing
sales revenue
operating expense
tax rate
net ppe

changing
GPM
NWC

wacc

12.18%

TV
discounted TV
EV

112.9920214794
63.6082061015
117.9448270089

TV
discounted TV
EV

105.748521064
59.530519365
96.9665345456

1990
9.50%
9%
5.80%

1991
10.25%
9.50%
5.80%

selling price * selling volume = sales rve

TV
PV

6.656290007
3.7471200275

1992
10.25%
9.50%
5.80%

d
e
value

75
25
100

1 value of eValue of frim - LTD


2

FCFE / (1+ PAT+depr-delta capex-delta NWC + loan - loan repayment


Length of 2 stage model
3 stage
stable

+ loan - loan repayment / (1+ke)^n

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