Maths in Focus Chapter 11

11
Probability
TERMINOLOGY
Arrangements: Different ways of organising objects
Combinations: Arrangements of objects without
replacement or repetition when order is not important
Complement: The complement of an event E is when the
event E does not occur
Equally likely outcomes: Each outcome has the same
chance of occurring
Factorial: A factorial is the product of n consecutive
positive integers from n down to 1. For example
6! = 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
Fundamental counting principle: If one event can occur in
p ways and a second independent event can occur in q
ways, then the two successive events can occur in p x q
different ways
Independent events: Events are independent if the result
of one event does not influence the outcome of another
event. There is no overlap between the events
Multi-stage events: A series of successive independent
events
Mutually exclusive results: Two events with the same
sample space that cannot both occur at the same time
Non-mutually exclusive results: Two events with the same
sample space that can occur at the same time i.e. there is
some overlap
Ordered selections: Selections that are taken in a

particular position or order.
Permutations: The arrangement of objects without
replacement or repetition when order is important
Probability tree: A diagram that uses branches to show
multi-stage events and sets out the probability on each
branch with the sample space listed at the right of each
branch
Random experiments: Experiments that are made with no
pattern or order where each outcome is equally likely to
occur
Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes in an event
or series of events
Tree diagram: A diagram that uses branches to show
multi-stage events where the probabilities on each
branch are equal
Unordered selections: Selections that are made when the
order of arrangements is not important or relevant
Venn diagram: A special diagram to show the sample
space for non-mutually exclusive events using circles for
each event drawn inside a rectangle which represents the
sample space
Chapter 11 Probability
Introduction
Probability is the study of how likely it is that something will happen.
It is used to make predictions in different areas, ranging from gambling to

determining the rate of insurance premiums. For example an actuary looking
at death-rate statistics can estimate the probable age to which someone will
live, and set life insurance premiums accordingly.
Another example of where probability is useful is in biology.
The probability of certain diseases or genetic defects can be
calculated in high-risk families.
Probability is also closely related to statistics and data analysis,
as well as games of chance such as card games, tossing coins,
backgammon and so on. It is also relevant to buying raffle and
lottery tickets.
In this chapter, you will revise simple probability that you
have learnt in previous years and extend this to more complex
probability involving multi-stage events.
DID YOU KNOW?

Girolamo Cardano (150176) was a doctor and mathematician who developed the first theory of
probability. He was a great gambler, and he wrote De Ludo Aleae (On Games of Chance). This
work was largely ignored, and it is said that the first book on probability was written by Christiaan
Huygens (162995).
The main study of probability was done by Blaise Pascal (162362), whom you have already
heard about, and Pierre de Fermat (160165). Pascal developed the arithmetical triangle you
studied in the last chapter. Pascals triangle has properties that are applicable to probability as well.
Simple Probability
Mutually exclusive events
Mutually exclusive events means that if one event occurs, the other cannot.
For example, when rolling a die, a 6 cannot occur at the same time as a 2.
We can measure probability in theory as long as the events are random,
independent and equally likely to happen. However, even then, probability
only gives us an approximate idea of the likelihood of certain events
happening.
For example, in Lotto draws, there is a machine that draws out the balls
at random and a panel of supervisors checks that this happens properly. Each
ball is independent of the others and is equally likely to be drawn out.
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Maths In Focus Mathematics Extension 1 HSC Course
In a horse race, it is difficult to measure probability as the horses are not

all equally likely to win. Other factors such as ability, training, experience and
weight of the jockey all affect it. The likelihood of any one horse winning is
not random.
Class Discussion
Discuss these statements:
1. The probability of one particular football team winning a
1
competition is
as there are 16 teams.
16
2. The probability of Tiger Woods winning the US Open golf
1
tournament is
if there are 78 players in the tournament.
78
3. A coin came up tails 8 times in a row. So there is a greater chance
that the next time it will come up heads.
The probability of an event E happening, P(E), is given by the number

of ways the event can occur, n(E), compared with the total number of
outcomes possible n(S) (called the sample space)
P (E) =
n (E)
n (S)
If P(E) = 0 the event is impossible

If P(E) = 1 the event is certain (it has to happen)
0 P(E) 1
The sum of all (mutually exclusive) probabilities is 1
Examples
1. A container holds 5 blue, 3 white and 7 yellow marbles. If one marble
is selected at random, find the probability of getting
(a) a white marble
(b) a white or blue marble
(c) a yellow, white or blue marble
(d) a red marble.
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Solution
The sample space, or total number of marbles is 5 + 3 + 7 or 15.
3
15
1
=
5
(a) P (W) =
3+5
15
8
=
15
(b) P (W or B) =
7+3+5
15
15
=
15
=1
(c) P (Y or W or B) =
0
15
=0
(d) P (R) =
Getting a red marble is

impossible!
2. The probability that a traffic light will turn green as a car approaches
5
it is estimated to be
. A taxi goes through 192 intersections where there
12
are traffic lights. How many of these would be expected to turn green as
the taxi approached?
Solution
It is expected that
5
of the traffic lights would turn green.
12
5
192 = 80
12
So it would be expected that 80 traffic lights would turn green as the taxi
approached.
11.1 Exercises
1. Peter is in a class of 30 students.
If one student is chosen at
random to make a speech, find
the probability that the student
chosen will be Peter.
2. A pack of cards contains

52different cards, one of which
is the ace of diamonds. If one
card is chosen at random, find
the probability that it will be the
ace of diamonds.
500
Die is singular for

dice.
3. There are 6 different newspapers

sold at the local newsagent
each day. Kim sends her little
brother to buy her a newspaper
one morning but forgets to tell
him which one. What is the
probability that he will buy the
correct newspaper?
4. A raffle is held in which 200
tickets are sold. If I buy 5 tickets,
what is the probability of my
winning the prize in the raffle?
5. In a lottery, 200 000 tickets are
sold. If Lucia buys 10 tickets,
what is the probability of her
winning first prize?
6. A bag contains 6 red balls and
8white balls. If one ball is drawn
out of the bag at random, find
the probability that it will be
(a) white
(b) red.
7. A shoe shop orders in 20 pairs
of black, 14 pairs of navy and
3pairs of brown school shoes.
If the boxes are all mixed up,
find the probability that one box
selected at random will contain
brown shoes.
8. Abdul has 12 CDs in his car
glovebox. The labels have
become mixed up. If he chooses
one of the CDs at random, find
the probability that it is his
favouriteCD.
9. A bag contains 5 black marbles,
4 yellow marbles and 11 green
marbles. Find the probability of
drawing 1 marble out at random
and getting
(a) a green marble
(b) a yellow or a green marble.
10. A die is thrown. Calculate the

probability of throwing
(a) a 6
(b) an even number
(c) a number less than 3.
11. A book has 124 pages. If the book
is opened at any page at random,
find the probability of the page
number being
(a) either 80 or 90
(b) a multiple of 10
(c) an odd number
(d) less than 100.
12. In the game of pool, there are
15 balls, each with the number
1 to 15 on it. In Kelly Pool,
each person chooses a number
at random to determine which
ball to sink. If Tracey chooses a
number, find the probability that
her ball will be
(a) an odd number
(b) a number less than 8
(c) the 8 ball.
13. At a school dance, each girl is
given a ticket with a boys name
on it. The girl then must dance
with that boy for the next dance.
If the tickets are given out at
random and there are 50 boys at
the dance, what is the probability
that Jill will get to dance with her
boyfriend?
14. Find the probability of a coin
coming up heads when tossed. If
the coin is double-headed, find
the probability of tossing a head.
15. In a bag of caramels, there are

21with red wrappers and 23 with
blue wrappers. If Leila chooses a
caramel at random from the bag,
find the probability that she will
choose one with a blue wrapper.
16. A student is chosen at random
to write about his/her favourite
sport. If 12 students like tennis
best, 7 prefer soccer, 3 prefer
squash, 5 prefer basketball and
4 prefer swimming, find the
probability that the student
chosen will write about
(a) soccer
(b) squash or swimming
(c) tennis.
17. A school has 875 students. If
5students are chosen at random
to help show some visitors
around, find the probability
that a particular student will be
chosen.
18. A box containing a light globe
1

has a
probability of holding
20

a defective globe. If 160 boxes
are checked, how many would be
expected to be defective?
19. There are 29 red, 17 blue,
21yellow and 19 green chocolate
beans in a packet. If Kate
chooses one at random, find the
probability that it will be red or
yellow.
20. The probability of breeding a
2

white budgerigar is . If MrSeed
9

breeds 153 budgerigars over
the year, how many would be
expected to be white?
21. A biased coin is weighted so that

heads comes up twice as often
as tails. Find the probability of
tossing a tail.
22. A die has the centre dot painted
white on the 5 so that it appears
as a 4. Find the probability of
throwing
(a) a 2
(b) a 4
(c) a number less than 5.
23. Discuss these statements.
(a) The probability of one
particular horse winning the
1
Melbourne cup is
if there are
20
20 horses in the race.
(b) The probability of Greg
Norman winning a masters golf
1
tournament is
if there are
15
15players in the tournament.
(c) A coin came up tails 8 times
in a row. So the next toss must be
a head.
(d) A family has three sons.
There is more chance of getting a
daughter next time.
(e) The probability of a Holden
winning the car race at Bathurst
6
as there are
this year is
47
6Holdens in the race and 47 cars
altogether.
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Complementary events
When we find the probabilities of events, the total of all the possible events
will always add up to 1.
Example
A ball is chosen at random from a bag containing 5 blue, 3 red and
7yellow balls. The probabilities are as follows:
5
P (blue) =
15
3
P (red) =
15
7
P (yellow) =
15
3
5
7
Total probability =
+
+
15 15 15
15
=
15
=1
The complement of an event happening is the event not happening. That

Eh
is, the complement of P(E) is P(not E). We can write this as P ^ L
Example
A die is thrown. Find the probability of
(a) throwing a 6
(b) not throwing a 6.
Solution
(a) P ] 6 g =
1
6
(b) P (not 6) = P (1, 2, 3, 4, or 5)

5
=
6
In general,
P (E) + P (L
E) = 1
or P (E) = 1 P (L
E)
Proof
Let e be the number of ways E can happen out of a total of n events. Then the
number of ways E will not happen is n e.
e
Then P (E) = n
ne
P (L
E) = n
n e
=n n
e
= 1 n
= 1 P (E)
Examples
1
. What is the probability of
1. The probability of a win in a raffle is
350
losing?
Solution
P (lose) = 1 P ] win g
1
= 1
350
349
=
350
2. The probability of a tree surviving a fire is 72%. Find the probability
of the tree failing to survive a fire.
Solution
P ^ failing to survive h = 1 P ^ surviving h
= 100% 72%
= 28%
11.2 Exercises
1. The probability of a bus arriving
18
. What

on time is estimated at
33

is the probability that the bus will
not arrive on time?
2. The probability of a seed

7
.
9
Find the probability of the flower
producing a different colour.
producing a pink flower is
3. If a baby has a 0.2% chance of

being born with a disability, find
the probability of the baby being
born without any disabilities.
4. The probability of selecting a card
with the number 5 on it is 0.27.
What is the probability of not
selecting this card?
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5. There is a 62% chance of a

student being chosen as a prefect.
What is the probability of a
student not being selected as a
prefect?
12. The probabilities of a certain

number of seeds germinating
when 4 seeds are planted are as
follows:
P ] 4 seeds g =
6. A machine has a 1.5% chance of

breaking down at any given time.
What is the probability of the
machine not breaking down?
7. The life of a certain type of
computer is about 7 years. If the
probability of its needing repairs
1

in that time is
, find the
23

probability that it will not need
repairs.
8. A certain traffic light has a
13

probability of
of being green.
18

Find the probability of the light
not being green when a car
comes to the traffic light.
9. A certain organism in a river has
a probability of 0.79 of surviving
a flood. What is the probability of
its not surviving?
10. A city has an 8.1% chance of
being hit by an earthquake. What
is its chance of not having an
earthquake?
11. The probabilities when 3 coins
are tossed are as follows:
1
8
3
P (2 heads and 1 tail) =
8
3
P (1 head and 2 tails) =
8
1
P (3 tails) =
8
P (3 heads) =
Find the probability of tossing at

least one head.
P ] 3 seeds g =
P ] 2 seeds g =
P ] 1 seed g =
P (0 seeds) =

4
49
8
49
16
49
18
49
3
49
Find the probability of at least

1seed germinating.
13. The probabilities of 4 friends

being chosen for a soccer team
are as follows:
P ] 4 chosen g =
1
15
4
P ] 3 chosen g =
15
6
P ] 2 chosen g =
15
2
P ] 1 chosen g =
15

Find the probability of

(a) none of the friends being
chosen
(b) at least 1 of the friends being
chosen.
14. A dog breeder tries to produce a

dog with a curly tail. If 2 puppies
are born, the probabilities are as
follows:
15. The probabilities of 3 new cars

passing a quality control check
are as follows:
P ^ 3 passing h =
1
16
7
P ^ 2 passing h =
16
3
P ^ 1 passing h =
16
5
P ^ 0 passing h =
16
P ^ no curly tails h =
4
11
5
P ^ 1 curly tail h =
11
2
P ^ 2 curly tails h =
11
Find the probability that at least

1 puppy will have a curly tail.
505
Find the probability that at least

1 car will fail the check.
Non-mutually exclusive events

All the examples of probability given so far in this chapter are mutually
exclusive. This means that if one event occurs, then another one cannot.
Forexample, if a die is thrown, a 6 cannot occur at the same time as a 2.
Sometimes, there is an overlap where more than one event can occur at
the same time. We call these non-mutually exclusive events.
It is important to count the possible outcomes carefully when this
happens. If there are not too many outcomes, we can simply list them, but if
this is difficult, we can use a Venn diagram to help.
Examples
1. One card is drawn from a set of cards numbered 1 to 10. Find the
probability of drawing out an odd number or a multiple of 3.
Solution
The odd cards are 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9.
The multiples of 3 are 3, 6 and 9.
The numbers 3 and 9 are both odd and multiples of 3.
So there are 6 numbers that are odd or multiples of 3: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 9
6
P (odd or multiple of 3) =
10
3
=
5
continued
The trick with this question

is not to count the 3
andthe 9 twice.
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Using a Venn diagram:

Count all the numbers inside the
twocircles.
There are 6 numbers
insidethe circles and
10numbers altogether.
From the Venn diagram:

3
6
= .
Probabilityis
10 5
2. In year 7 at Mt Random High School, every student must do art or
music. In a group of 100 students surveyed, 47 do music and 59 do art.
If one student is chosen at random from year 7, find the probability that
this student does
(a) both art and music
(b) only art
(c) only music.
Solution
47 + 59 = 106
But there are only 100 students!
This means 6 students have been counted twice.
i.e. 6 students do both art and music.
Students doing music only: 47 6 = 41
Students doing art only: 59 6 = 53
A Venn diagram shows this information.
(a) P ] both g =
3
6
=
100 50
53
(b) P ^ art only h =
100
41
(c) P ^ music only h =
100
DID YOU KNOW?

Venn diagrams are named after John Venn (18341923), an English probabilist
and logician.
There is a formula that can be used for non-mutually exclusive events.

P ] A or B g = P ] A g + P ] B g P ] A and B g
Notice that P ] A g + P ] B g counts P ] A and B g twice, since it occurs in both
P(A) and P(B). This can be adjusted by subtracting P(A and B).
Example
From 100 cards, numbered from 1 to 100, one is selected at random. Find
the probability that the card selected is even or less than 20.
Solution
Some cards are both even and less than 20 (i.e. 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18).
9
P (even and < 20) =
100
50
P (even) =
100
19
P (< 20) =
100
P (even or < 20) = P (even) + P (< 20) P (even and < 20)
50
19
9
=
+
100 100 100

60
=
100
3
=
5
11.3 Exercises
1. A number is chosen at random
from the numbers 1 to 20. Find
the probability that the number
chosen will be
(a) divisible by 3
(b) less than 10 or divisible by 3
(c) a composite number
(d) a composite number or a
number greater than 12.
2. A set of 50 cards is labelled from

1 to 50. One card is drawn out at
random. Find the probability that
the card will be
(a) a multiple of 5
(b) an odd number
(c) a multiple of 5 or an odd
number
(d) a number greater than 40 or
an even number
(e) less than 20.
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3. A set of 26 cards, each with a

different letter of the alphabet on
it, is placed in a box and one is
drawn out at random. Find the
probability that the letter on the
card drawn will be
(a) a vowel
(b) a vowel or one of the letters
in the word random
(c) a consonant or one of the
letters in the word movies.
4. A set of discs is numbered 1 to
100 and one is chosen at random.
Find the probability that the
number on the disc will be
(a) less than 30
(b) an odd number or a number
greater than 70
(c) divisible by 5 or less than 20.
5. In Lotto, a machine holds
45 balls, each with a number
between 1 and 45 on it. The
machine draws out one ball
at a time at random. Find the
probability that the first ball
drawn out will be
(a) less than 10 or an even
number.
(b) between 1 and 15 inclusive,
or divisible by 6
(c) greater than 30 or an odd
number.
6. A class of 28 students puts on
aconcert with all class members
performing. If 15 dance and
19sing in the performance, find
the probability that any one
student chosen at random from
the class will
(a) both sing and dance
(b) only sing
(c) only dance.
7. A survey of 80 people with dark

hair or brown eyes showed that
63 had dark hair and 59 had
brown eyes. If one of the people
surveyed is chosen at random,
find the probability that the
person will
(a) have dark hair but not brown
eyes
(b) have brown eyes but not dark
hair
(c) have both brown eyes and
dark hair.
8. A list is made up of people with

experience of either computers
or digital cameras. On the list
of 20 people, 13 have computer
experience while 9 have
experience with a digital camera.
If one name is chosen at random
from the list, find the probability
that the person will have
experience with
(a) both computers and digital
cameras
(b) computers only
(c) digital cameras only.
9. In a group of 75 students, all

do either History or Geography.
Altogether 54 do History and
31 do Geography. If I select one
student at random, find the
probability that he/she will do
(a) only Geography
(b) both History and Geography
(c) History but not Geography.
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10. In a group of 20 dogs at

obedience school, 14 dogs will
walk to heel and 12 will stay
when told. If one dog is chosen at
random, find the probability that
the dog will
(a) both walk to heel and stay
(b) walk to heel but not stay
(c) stay but not walk to heel.
Multi-Stage Events
Product rule of probability
Class Discussion
Break up into pairs and try these experiments with one doing the activity
and one recording the results.
1. Toss two coins as many times as you can in a 5 minute period and
record the results in the table:
Result
Two heads
One head and one tail
Two tails
Tally
Compare your results with others in the class. What do you notice? Is this
surprising?
2. Roll two dice as many times as you can in a 5 minute period, find the
total of the two uppermost numbers on the dice and record the results
in the table:
Total
10
11
12
Tally
Compare your results with others in the class. What do you notice? Is this
surprising?
Why dont these results appear to be equally likely?
The counting of all possible outcomes (the sample space) is important.

This is why we use tables and tree diagrams.
You learned about tree

diagrams in your earlier
studies.
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Examples
Compare these probabilities
with your results in the
experiments.
Find the sample space and the probability of each outcome for each
question by using a table or tree diagram.
1. Tossing two coins
Solution
Using a table gives
H
HH
HT
TH
TT
Using a tree diagram gives

H
H
T
H
T
T
Since there are four separate outcomes (HH, HT, TH, TT) each outcome
1
has a probability of .
4
1
Remember that each outcome when tossing 1 coin is .
2
1 1 1
Notice that = .
2 2 4
2. Rolling 2 dice and recording the sum of the uppermost numbers.
Can you see why a tree
diagram is too difficult here?
Solution
A tree diagram would be too difficult to draw for this question.
Using a table:
1
10
10
11
10
11
12
1
36
1
Remember that each outcome when rolling 1 die is .
6
1 1
1

Notice that =
6 6 36
Since there are 36 outcomes, each has a probability of
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If A and B are independent events, then the probability of both occurring

is the product of their probabilities.
P ] AB g = P ] A g $ P ] B g
Examples
1
. Find the
6
probability of getting a double 6 when rolling two dice.
1. The probability of getting a 6 when rolling a die is
Solution
P ] double 6 g =
1 1
6 6
1
=
36
7
2. The probability that a certain missile will hit a target is . Find the
8
probability that the missile will
(a) hit two targets
(b) miss two targets.
Solution
7 7
(a) P ] 2 hits g =
8 8

49
=
64
7
(b) P ] miss g = 1
8

1
=
8
1 1
P ] 2 misses g =
8 8

1
=
64
Sometimes the outcomes change when looking at more than one event.
Using these answers, could

you calculate the probability
that the missile hits one
target and not the other?
512
Examples
1. Maryam buys 5 tickets in a raffle in which 95 tickets are sold
altogether. There are two prizes in the raffle. What is the probability of her
(a) winning both first and second prizes?
(b) winning neither prize?
(c) winning at least one of the prizes?
Solution
(a) Probability of winning first prize =
5
95
After winning first prize, Maryams winning ticket is taken out of

the draw. She then has 4 tickets left in the raffle out of a total of
94tickets left.
4

Probability of winning second prize =
94
5
4
P ] WW g =
95 94

2
=
893
5
(b) Probability of not winning first prize = 1
95
90
=
95
After not winning first prize, Maryams 5 tickets are all left in the
draw, but the winning ticket is taken out, leaving 94 tickets in the
raffle.
5

Probability of winning second prize =
94
5

Probability of not winning second prize = 1
94
89
=
94

P ] LL g =
90 89
95 94
801
=
893
(c) P ] at least one W g = 1 P ] LL g

801
=1
893
92
=
893
2. I choose 3 balls at random from a bag containing 7 blue and 5red
balls.
(a) Find the probability of getting 3 blue balls if
(i) I replace each ball before choosing the next one
(ii) I dont replace each ball before choosing the next one.
(b) Find the probability of getting at least one red ball (without
replacement).
Solution
(a) (i)
P ]Bg =
7
12
So P ] BBB g = 7 7 7
12 12 12
343
=
1728
7
(ii) P ] B g =
12
After the first blue ball has been chosen, the bag now contains 6 blue and
5 red balls.
P ] 2nd B g =
6
11
After the second blue ball has been chosen, the bag contains 5 blue and
5red balls.
P ] 3rd B g =
5
10
6
5
7
So P ] BBB g =
12 11 10
7
=
44
(b) P ] at least one R g = 1 ] no R g
= 1 P ] BBB g
7
=1
44
37
=
44
11.4 Exercises
1. If 2 dice are thrown, find the
probability of throwing two 6s.
2. Find the probability of
getting2heads if a coin is
tossedtwice.
3. A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the
probability of tossing 3 tails.
4. A card has a picture on one side
and is blank on the other. If the
card is thrown into the air twice,
find the probability that it will
land with the picture side up
both times.
5. A box contains 2 black balls, 5 red

balls and 4 green balls. If I draw
out 2 balls at random, replacing
the first before drawing out the
second, find the probability that
they will both be red.
6. The probability of a conveyor belt
in a factory breaking down at any
one time is 0.21. If the factory
has 2 conveyor belts, find the
probability that at any one time
(a) both machines will break down
(b) neither machine will break
down.
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514
7. The probability of a certain plant

flowering is 93%. If a nursery
has 3of these plants, find the
probability that they will all flower.
8. An archery student has a 69%
chance of hitting a target. If she
fires 3 arrows at a target, find the
probability that she will hit the
target each time.
9. A bag contains 8 yellow and
6green lollies. If I choose
2lollies at random, find the
probability that they will both
begreen
(a) if I replace the first lolly
before selecting the second
(b) if I dont replace the first lolly.
10. I buy 10 tickets in a raffle in
which 250 tickets are sold. Find
the probability of winning both
first and second prizes.
11. Two cards are drawn from a
deck of 20 red and 25 blue cards
(without replacement). Find the
probability that they will both
bered.
12. Find the probability of winning
the first 3 prizes in a raffle if Peter
buys 5 tickets and 100 tickets are
sold altogether.
13. The probability of a pair of small
parrots breeding an albino bird
2

is
. If they lay three eggs, find
33

the probability of the pair
(a) not breeding any albinos
(b) having all three albinos
(c) breeding at least one albino.
14. A photocopier has a paper jam

on average around once every
2400sheets of paper.
(a) What is the probability that a
particular sheet of paper will jam?
(b) What is the probability that
two particular sheets of paper
willjam?
(c) What is the probability that
two particular sheets of paper will
not jam?
15. In Yahtzee, 5 dice are rolled. Find

the probability of rolling
(a) five 6s
(b) no 6s
(c) at least one 6.
16. The probability of a faulty
computer part being
manufactured at Omega
3

Computer Factory is
.
5000
If 2computer parts are examined,
find the probability that
(a) both are faulty
(b) neither are faulty
(c) at least one is faulty.
17. A set of 10 cards is numbered
1to 10 and two are drawn out at
random with replacement. Find
the probability of drawing
(a) two odd numbers
(b) two numbers that are
divisible by 3
(c) two numbers less than 4.
18. A bag contains 5 white, 4 black

and 3 red marbles. If 2 marbles
are selected from the bag at
random without replacement,
find the probability of selecting
(a) two red marbles
(b) two black marbles
(c) no white marbles
(d) at least one white marble.
19. The probability of an arrow hitting
a target is 85%. If 3 arrows are shot,
find the probability as a percentage,
correct to 2 decimal places, of
515
(a) all arrows hitting the target

(b) no arrows hitting the target
(c) at least one arrow hitting the
target.
20. A coin is tossed n times. Find
the probability in terms of n of
tossing
(a) all heads
(b) no tails
(c) at least one tail.
Tree diagrams and probability trees

When using the product rule to find the probability of successive events
occurring, sometimes there is more than one possible result. For example,
when tossing two coins, there are two ways of getting a head and a tail
(HTand TH). We add these results together.
P ] A or B g = P ] A g + P ] B g
This is called the

addition rule of
probability.
We use tree diagrams or probability trees to combine the product and

addition rules.
We use the product rule by multiplying along the branches and the
addition rule by adding up the probabilities from different branches.
Examples
1. If 2 coins are tossed, find the probability of tossing a head and a tail.
Solution
continued
516
P ] head and tail g = P (HT ) + P (TH )

1 1
1 1
= c m+c m
2 2
2 2
1 1
= +
4 4
1
=
2
2. A person has probability of 0.2 of winning a prize in a
competition. If he enters 3 competitions, find the probability of his
winning
(a) 2 competitions
(b) at least 1 competition.
Solution
Probability of losing is
1 0.2.
(a) Probability of losing is 0.8

P (2W) = P (WWL) + P (WLW) + P (LWW )
= (0.2 0.2 0.8) + (0.2 0.8 0.2) + (0.8 0.2 0.2)

= 0.032 + 0.032 + 0.032
= 0.096
(b) P (at least one W ) = 1 P (LLL)
= 1 (0.8 0.8 0.8)

= 1 0.512
= 0.488
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3. A bag contains 3 red, 4 white and 7 blue marbles. Two marbles are
drawn at random from the bag
(a) replacing the first before the second is drawn
(b) without replacement
Find the probability of drawing out a red and a white marble in these cases.
Solution
(a)
P (R and W ) = P (RW ) + P (WR)

3
3
4
4
=c
m+c
m
14 14
14 14

12
12
=
+
196 196
6
=
49
(b)
The probabilities in each

set of branches must add
up to 1.
continued
518
P (R and W ) = P (RW ) + P (WR)

3
3
4
4
=c
m+c
m
14 13
14 13
12
12
=
+
182 182
12
=
91
11.5 Exercises
1. Two coins are tossed. Find the
probability of getting
(a) 2 heads
(b) a head followed by a tail
(c) a head and a tail.
2. Three coins are tossed. Find the
(a) 3 tails
(b) 2 heads and 1 tail
(c) at least 1 head.
3. In a set of 30 cards, each one
has a number on it from 1 to
30. If 1card is drawn out, then
replaced and another drawn out,
find the probability of getting
(a) two 8s
(b) a 3 on the first card and an
18on the second card
(c) a 3 on one card and an 18 on
the other card.
4. Five cards are labelled A, B, C, D
and E. If 2 are selected at random,
with replacement, find the
probability that they will be
(a) both As
(b) an A and a D.
5. A bag contains 5 red marbles and
8 blue marbles. If 2 marbles are
chosen at random, with the first
replaced before the second is drawn

out, find the probability of getting
(a) 2 red marbles
(b) a red and a blue marble.
6. A certain breed of cat has a 35%
probability of producing a white
kitten. If a cat has 3 kittens, find
the probability that she will
produce
(a) no white kittens
(b) 2 white kittens
(c) at least 1 white kitten.
7. The probability of a certain type of
photocopier in a school needing a
service on any one day is 0.3. Find
the probability that a school with
2 of these photocopiers will need
to service, on a particular day,
(a) 1 machine
(b) both machines
(c) neither of them
8. The probability of rain in May
3

each year is given by
.A
10

school holds a fete in May for
three years running. Find the
probability that it will rain at
(a) 2 of the fetes
(b) 1 fete
(c) at least 1 fete
9. A certain type of plant has a

probability of 0.85 of producing
a variegated leaf. If I grow 3 of
these plants, find the probability
of getting a variegated leaf in
(a) 2 of the plants
(b) none of the plants
(c) at least 1 plant.
13. Mary buys 20 tickets in a lottery

that has 5000 tickets altogether.
Find the probability that Mary
will win
(a) first and second prize
(b) second prize only
(c) neither first nor
second prize.
14. Two musicians are selected at
random to lead their band. One
person is chosen from Band A,
which has 8 females and 7 males,
and the other is chosen from
Band B, which has 6 females and
9 males. Find the probability of
choosing
(a) 2 females
(b) 1 female and 1 male.
10. A bag contains 6 white balls and

5 green balls. If 2 balls are chosen
at random, find the probability of
getting a white and a green ball
(a) with replacement
(b) without replacement.
11. A bag contains 3 yellow balls,
4pink balls and 2 black balls. If
2balls are chosen at random, find
the probability of getting a yellow
and a black ball
12. Alan buys 4 tickets in a raffle
in which 100 tickets are sold
altogether. There are two prizes
in the raffle. Find the probability
that Alan will win
(a) first prize
(b) both prizes
(c) 1 prize
(d) no prizes
(e) at least 1 prize.
15. The two machines in a workshop

1

each have a probability of
45

of breaking down. Find the
(a) neither machine will be
broken down
(b) 1 machine will be broken
down.
16. Two tennis players are said to
2

have a probability of and
5
3

respectively of winning a
4

tournament. Find the probability
that
(a) 1 of them will win
(b) neither one will win.
17. If 4 dice are thrown, find the
probability that the dice will
have
(a) four 6s
(b) only one 6
(c) at least one 6.
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18. In a batch of 100 cars, past

experience would suggest that
3 could be faulty. If 3 cars are
selected at random, find the
probability that
(a) 1 is faulty
(b) none are faulty
(c) all 3 cars are faulty.
19. In a certain poll, 46% of people
surveyed liked the current
government, 42% liked the
opposition and 12% had no
preference. If 2 people from the
survey are selected at random,
(a) both will prefer the
opposition
(b) 1 will prefer the government
and the other will have no
preference
(c) both will prefer the
government.
20. A manufacturer of X brand of soft
drink surveyed a city and found
that 31 people liked X drinks
best, 19 liked another brand
better and 5 did not drink soft
drink. If any 2 people are selected
at random from that city, find the
probability that
(a) one person would like the X
brand of soft drink
(b) both people would not drink
soft drink.
21. A bag contains 5 red, 6 blue,
2white and 7 green balls. If 2
are selected at random (without
replacement), find the probability
of getting
(a) 2 red balls
(b) a blue and a white ball
(c) 2 green balls
(d) at least 1 red ball.
22. In a group of people, 32 are

Australian born, 12 were born
inAsia and 7 were born in
Europe. If 2 of the people are
selected at random, find the
probability that
(a) they were both born in Asia
(b) at least 1 of them will be
Australian born
(c) both were born in Europe.
23. There are 34 men and 32 women
at a party. Of these, 13 men
and 19 women are married. If
2 people are chosen at random,
(a) both will be men
(b) 1 will be a married woman
and the other an unmarried man
(c) both will be married.
24. In a certain city, the
probability that the pollution
level will be high is 0.27. If
the pollution is monitored
for 4 successive days, find the
probability that the pollution
levels will be
(a) high on 2 days
(b) high on 1 day
(c) low on at least 1 day.
25. At City Heights School it was

found that 75% of students in
year 12 study 13 units, 21% study
12 units and 4% study 11 units. If
2 students are selected at random
from year 12, find the probability
that
(a) 1 student will study 12 units
(b) at least 1 student will study
13 units.
26. Three dice are rolled. Find the
probability of rolling
(a) 3 sixes
(b) 2 sixes
(c) at least 1 six.
27. A set of 5 cards, each labelled
with the letters A, B, C, D and
E, is placed in a hat and two
selected at random without
replacement. Find the probability
of getting
(a) D and E
(b) Neither D nor E on either card
(c) At least one D.
28. The ratio of girls to boys at

a school is four to five. Two
students are surveyed at random
from the school. Find the
probability that the students are
(a) both boys
(b) a girl and a boy
(c) at least one girl.
29. The number of cats to dogs at a
pet hotel is in the ratio of 4 to 7.
If 3 pets are chosen at random,
(a) they are all dogs
(b) just one is a dog
(c) at least one is a cat.
30. A set of 20 cards is numbered
1to 20 and three are selected at
random with replacement. Find
the probability of selecting
(a) all three 10s
(b) no 10s
(c) at least one 10.
Counting techniques
As you can see from the previous section, the hardest part of calculating
probabilities is finding all the possible outcomes. You have used lists, tables,
tree diagrams and probability trees to help find the sample space.
However, these can become quite difficult to use in some cases. Think of
how you would list all the possible outcomes when rolling 3 dice!
There are many examples where counting techniques are useful. For
example, in the early days, phone numbers used to have fewer digits, but
these ran out when too many people started to have a telephone. Now
mobile phone numbers have 10 digits, but in the future as more and more
people use them, we might need to add more digits. In some areas of science,
for example, in genetics, counting of molecules on strands of DNA can be
challenging.
You studied permutations and combinations in the Preliminary course.
We will revise this work here.
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522
Fundamental counting principle

The product rule
uses this.
If 1 event can happen in p different ways

and after this another event can happen in q
different ways, then the 2 successive events
canhappen in pq different ways.
Examples
1. The numberplate on a car has 2 letters, followed by 4 numbers. How
many different numberplates of this type are possible?
Solution
There are 26 letters and 10 numbers (0 to 9) possible for each position in
the numberplate.
Total number = 26 26 10 10 10 10
= 26 2 10 4
= 6 760 000
So 6 760 000 numberplates are possible.
2. I have 12 pairs of earrings, 3 necklaces, 8 rings and 2 watches in my
jewellery box.
(a) If I can wear any combination of earrings, necklaces, rings and
watches, how many different sets of jewellery can I wear?
(b) If my friend makes a guess at the combination of jewellery that I will
wear, what is the probability that she will guess correctly?
Solution
(a) Total number = 12 3 8 2
= 576
1
(b) P ^ correct guess h =
576
11.6 Exercises
1. A combination lock has 4 dials,
each with 10 digits. How many
combinations are possible?
2. A certain type of serial number

on a television set is made up of
5 numbers, followed by a letter.
How many serial numbers of this
type are available?
3. A personalised car numberplate

can fit up to 6 letters on it. If
I could use any letter of the
alphabet, or a space, in any
position, how many different
combinations could be formed?
4. A personal identification number
(PIN) is made up of 4 digits. How
many different PINs are possible?
5. Jan saw a car leaving the bank
after a robbery. She remembered
all of its numberplate except
the last number. How many
cars could there be with this
numberplate?
6. A poker machine has 5 reels,
each with 12 symbols on it. How
many different combinations are
possible?
7. A local library has 59 books on
drama, 102 books on ballet and
87 books on gymnastics. I ask
my friend to borrow a particular
book on each of these subjects,
but he loses my list. If he chooses
1 of each type of book at random,
find the probability that he will
choose the 3 books that I wanted.
8. A company that manufactures
radios labels each radio with
a serial number made up of 2
numbers and 3 letters. How many
radios can have this type of serial
number?
9. To win a trifecta in a race, a
person has to pick the horses
that come first, second and
third in the race. For a certain
race, Marie wishes to bet on
every combination possible to

win the trifecta. If there are 12
horses in the race, how many
combinations will she bet on?
10. A security door unlocks when
a person presses a certain
combination of 6 numbers. If
Itry a particular combination at
I will be able to unlock the door.
11. The NSW and ACT postcodes all
have 4 digits and start with 2.
How many different postcodes
are possible?
12. Many telephone numbers in
Sydney have 8 digits. If the first
digit is not allowed to be zero,
how many telephone numbers
are possible?
13. The game of Yahtzee involves
tossing 5 dice.
(a) How many ways can the
5dice land?
(b) What is the probability of
tossing 5 sixes?
14. Wendy orders a 3 course dinner
at a restaurant that offers 8
entres, 5 main courses and 7
desserts. What is the probability
that she has ordered the same
combination as her friend?
15. A certain brand of car has a
choice of 3 engine sizes and
7colours, a choice of manual
or automatic, and a choice of a
sunroof or air conditioning. How
many different combinations are
possible?
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Permutations
A permutation describes an arrangement of objects in a certain order.
Example
A number from 1 to 20 is written on each of 20 cards. If 3 cards are
chosen randomly, without replacement, find the possible number of ways
the cards can be chosen.
Solution
The first card can be any of the 20 numbers.
The second card can be any of the remaining 19 numbers.
The third card can be any of the remaining 18 numbers.
the number of ways the cards can be chosen is 20 19 18 = 6840
How many ways could

3 cards be chosen with
replacement?
Permutation n Pr is the number of ways of making ordered selections ofr

objects from a total of n objects. The number of ways to choose r objects in
order from a total of n objects is given by n ] n 1 g ] n 2 g f ] n r + 1 g .
You studied permutations in

the Preliminary course.
Pr =
n!
]n r g!
Proof
n
Pr = n (n 1) (n 2) . . . (n r + 1)
= n (n 1) (n 2) . . . (n r + 1)
n ] n 1 g ] n 2 g . . . 3. 2. 1
] n r g ] n r 1 g . . . 3. 2. 1
n!
=
]n r g!
] n r g ] n r 1 g . . . 3. 2. 1
] n r g ] n r 1 g . . . 3. 2. 1
Proof
n!
]n r g!
n!
` n Pn =
]n ng!
n!
=
0!
n!
=
1
= n!
n
Remember that 0! = 1.
Pr =
Pn = n!
Examples
1.
(a) Find the number of 4 digit numbers that can be made using the
numbers 0 to 9 if each number can only be used once.
(b) How many 4 digit numbers greater than 6000 can be formed?
Solution
There are 10 digits from 0 to 9.
(a) The 1st digit can be any of the 10 numbers.
The 2nd digit can be any of the remaining 9 numbers.
The 3rd digit can be any of the remaining 8 numbers.
The 4th digit can be any of the remaining 7 numbers.
Total permutations = 10 9 8 7
= 5040
10
10!
P4 =
or
] 10 4 g !
10!
=
6!
= 5040
(b) The 1st digit can be 6, 7, 8 or 9 (4 possible digits).

The 2nd digit can be any of the remaining 9 numbers.
The 3rd digit can be any of the remaining 8 numbers.
The 4th digit can be any of the remaining 7 numbers.

Total arrangements = 4 9 8 7
= 2016

or
There are 4 ways to get the 1st digit.
The possible arrangements for the remaining 3 digits are 9 P3 .
Total arrangements = 4 9 P3
= 4 504

= 2016
continued
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526
2.
(a) In how many ways can 9 people sit around a circular table with no
conditions restricting where anyone sits?
(b) If 2 people want to sit together, what is the probability that they will
be, if they are seated at random?
Solution
If A can sit anywhere,

wefix this position and
arrange the others.
(a) The 1st person can sit anywhere.

The 2nd person can sit in any of the remaining 8 seats.
The 3rd person can sit in any of 7 seats, and so on.

total arrangements depend on the seating of 8 people
Total arrangements = 8!
= 40 320

(b)
The 2 people can sit together in 2! ways (AB or BA).

The remaining 7 people can sit in 7! ways.
Total arrangements = 2! 7!
= 10 080
2 7!
P ^ 2 sitting together h =
8!
10 080
=
40 320
1
=
4
3.
(a) How many ways can the letters of the word PROBABLE be arranged?
(b) If I jumble the letters in the word PROBABLE and make up a word at
random, find the probability that the word I choose will be the reverse of
PROBABLE (i.e. ELBABORP).
Solution
(a) PROBABLE has 8 letters, with 2 Bs.
If each B were different, i.e. B1 and B2, then there would be 8!
arrangements.
However, we cannot tell the difference between the 2 Bs. Since there
are 2! ways to arrange the 2 Bs, there are 2! arrangements of the
word PROBABLE that look the same.
8!
` total arrangements =
2!

= 20 160
1
(b) P ] ELBABORP g =
20 160
11.7 Exercises
1. Evaluate, then check answers on
the calculator.
(a) 6 P4
(b) 7 P6
(c) 9 P1
(d) 5 P3
(e) 8 P6
2. If I have 10 cards, each labelled
with a different number from
1to 10, find how many numbers
are possible if selecting (without
replacement)
(a) 2 cards
(b) 6 cards
(c) 5 cards
(d) 3 cards
(e) 8 cards.
3. A 3 digit number is to be made
from the digits 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7.
(a) How many numbers can be
made if no digit may be used
more than once in the same
number?
(b) In how many ways can an
even number be made from these
digits?
(c) How many numbers over 600
can be made?
4. A 4 digit number is to be made

from the digits 1 to 9, with no
digit allowed more than once in
the same number.
(a) How many numbers can be
made?
(b) In how many ways can an
odd number be made?
(c) How many numbers less than
3000 can be made?
5. (a)How many 1, 2, 3 or 4 digit
numbers can be made using
the digits 1 to 4, withno digit
allowed more thanonce?
(b) How many numbers less than
100 can be made?
6. How many 3 letter combinations
can be made from the word
SWITZERLAND?
7. How many arrangements of the
digits 1, 2, 3 and 4 can be made
without using any digit more
than once in the same number?
8. How many 3 digit numbers can
be made from the digits 1, 2, 3,
4 and 5 without using any digit
twice in the same number?
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9. In how many ways can a group of

7 people be arranged
(a) in a straight line
(b) around a circle?
10. In how many ways can a group of
4 people be arranged
(a) in a straight line
(b) around a circle?
A bracelet can be turned

over so it looks the same
either side.
11. A queue has 4 boys and 4 girls

standing in line. Find how many
different arrangements of the line
are possible if
(a) the boys and girls can stand
anywhere in the line
(b) the boys and girls alternate
(c) 2 particular girls wish to stand
together
(d) all the boys stand together.
(e) Also find the probability that
3 particular people will be in the
queue together if the queue forms
randomly.
12. A table has 4 boys and 4 girls
sitting around it.
(a) Find the number of ways of
sitting possible if the boys and
girls can sit anywhere around the
table.
(b) If the seating is arranged
atrandom, find the probability
that
(i) 2 particular girls will sit
together, and
(ii) all the boys will sit
together.
13. How many ways can 10 people be
arranged in a
(a) line?
(b) circle?
14. At a dinner party 6 people sit

around a table.
(a) How many different
arrangements are possible?
(b) Find the probability that if
seating is at random, 2 friends
will sit apart.
(c) How many ways can the
seating be arranged so that
3 particular people will sit
together?
15. (a) Nine beads are arranged
randomly in a line. How many
(b) If the beads are placed in a
circle, how many ways can this
be done?
(c) The beads are arranged on
a bracelet. How many different
ways are possible?
16. Find the probability that in a
circle of 20 people, 2 particular
people will be together.
17. How many different
arrangements can be made from
the following words? Note that
the arrangements need not be
proper words.
(a) MATHS
(b) WORD
(c) ELEPHANT
(d) POPULAR
(e) SAUSAGE
(f) TEPEE
(g) BLACKBOARD
(h) PERCENTAGE
(i) ENGINEERING
(j) SUPERMARKET
18. Find out how many arrangements

are possible from the word
STUDIO if
(a) any grouping of letters is
allowed
(b) the T and D are together
(c) the vowels are together
(d) the vowels and consonants
alternate
(e) the letter S is not the first letter
(f) the letter O is not first or last.
19. In how many ways can 10 boys

be arranged in a line if
(a) the first boy in the line is
always the same
(b) the first boy and the last boy
in the line are always the same?
20. Twelve differently coloured
beads are arranged around a
necklace. How many different
Combinations
The permutation n Pr is the number of arrangements possible for an ordered
selection of r objects from n objects. That is, the selection AB and BA are
different, as they are in a different order.
When the order is not important, that is, when AB and BA mean the
same thing, the number of arrangements is called a combination. You studied
combinations in the previous chapter.
The number of ways of making unordered selections of r
objects from n objects is given by n C r .
Proof
Let n Pr be the ordered selection of r objects from n objects.
There are r! ways of arranging the r objects.
n
P
If order is unimportant, then the unordered selection of r objects is given by r .
r!
n!
]n r g!
=
r!
r!
n!
1
=
] n r g ! r!
n!
=
] n r g !r!
= nCr
Pr
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Examples
1.
(a) A committee of 4 people is formed from a group of 11 people. In how
many different ways can the committee be formed?
(b) If the group consists of 5 men and 6 women, how many ways can the
committee be formed with 1 man and 3 women?
Solution
(a) The order of the committee is not important (e.g. a committee of
David and Mary is the same as a committee of Mary and David).
Number of committees = 11 C 4
= 330
(b) One man can be chosen from 5 in 5 C 1 or 5 ways.
Three women can be chosen from 6 in 6 C 3 or 20 ways.
Total number of arrangements = 5 C 1 6 C 3
= 5 20

= 100
2.
(a) Twelve people apply for a scholarship to boarding school, but only
5scholarships are available. How many different combinations of people
are possible for the 5 scholarships?
(b) Out of the 12 people, 4 are from Sydney and 8 are from the country.
If3 scholarships are awarded to country people, how many combinations
are possible?
Solution
(a) 12 C 5 = 792
(b) The 4 Sydney people can get 2 scholarships in 4 C 2 ways.
The 8 country people can get 3 scholarships in 8 C 3 ways.
Total combinations = 4 C2 8 C3
= 6 56

= 336
3. A team of 4 men and 5 women is to be chosen at random from a
group of 8 male and 7 female swimmers. If Craig and Tracey are both
hoping to be chosen, find the probability that
(a) both will be chosen
(b) neither will be chosen.
Solution
The number of possible teams = 8 C4 7 C5
= 1470
(a) If Craig is chosen, then 3 of the other 7 men need to be chosen,
i.e.7 C 3 . If Tracey is chosen, then 4 of the other 6 women need to be
chosen, i.e. 6 C 4 .

Number of combinations = 7 C 3 6 C 4
= 525
525
5
Probability =
=
1470 14
(b) If Craig and Tracey are not included in the team, then 4 men out of
the other 7 are chosen, and 5 women out of the other 6 are chosen.
Number of combinations = 7 C 4 6 C 5
= 210
210
1
Probability =
=
1470 7
11.8 Exercises
1. In a class of 20 students, 2 are
selected as class prefects. If the
selection is made at random, in
how many ways is the selection
possible?
2. A group of 8 tennis players all
have an equal chance of being
chosen in a team. If the team can
only have 5 players, in how many
ways can the team be selected?
3. In a group of 6 apprentices,
ateam of 4 is put on a special
job. If the selection is made at
random, in how many different
ways can the selection of the
team be made?
4. A debating team of 4 is chosen
from a class of 15. How many
different combinations are
possible
(a) if there are no restrictions on
who is in the team
(b) if 1 particular person is to be

included in the team
(c) if 2 particular people are to be
included?
5. A committee of 3 women and
5men is to be selected at random
from 7 women and 7 men.
(a) Find the number of ways that
the committee can be chosen.
(b) Among the group is a married
couple. Find the probability that
they will both be selected.
6. Out of 25 students who study
drama, 3 are chosen to be in a
play.
(a) In how many ways can
this be done if the selection is
random?
(b) A brother and sister both do
drama. Find the probability that
neither of them will be selected
for the play.
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7. There are 6 books about ancient

Rome on a certain shelf in the
library. If there are 20 books on
the shelf altogether and I choose
6 at random, find the probability
that they will all be about ancient
Rome.
8. An excursion is arranged for a
class of 31 students. However,
there is only room for 20
students in the bus. If 20 students
are selected at random from the
class, in how many ways can this
be done?
9. To win Lotto, you choose 6
numbers out of a total of 45.
(a) In how many ways can this
be done?
(b) What is the probability of
winning first prize in Lotto if you
play 4 games?
(c) Find the probability of
winning Lotto if you play
100games.
10. To play the Australian Soccer
Pools you choose 6 numbers out
of 38. What is the probability of
winning if you play 10 games?
11. A committee of 3 people is
formed from a group of 9 people.
(a) In how many different ways
can the committee be formed?
(b) If the group consists of 6 men
and 3 women, how many ways
can the committee be formed
with 2 men and 1 woman?
12. A team of 3 girls and 3 boys is
chosen from a group of 15 girls
and 12 boys to represent their
school. In how many different
ways can the team be formed?
13. There are 9 people who are

applying for 4 jobs.
(a) If the jobs are allocated
randomly, how many different
combinations of people are
possible for the 4 jobs?
(b) Out of the 9 people, 5 have
their HSC. If 3 jobs require the
HSC, how many ways can the
4jobs be allocated?
14. Thirty people apply for a special
housing package, but only
12packages are available, and are
allocated randomly.
(a) What is the probability that
a particular person applying will
get a house?
(b) Out of the 12 packages, 5 are
in Sydney and 7 are in the Blue
Mountains. If 19 people apply for
the Sydney houses and the rest
apply for the Blue Mountains, in
how many ways can the houses
be allocated?
15. Of a group of 16 children at
preschool, only 5 are allowed on
the climbing equipment at one
time.
combinations of children are
possible?
(b) Out of the 16 children, 7 are
under 3 years old. If 2 children
under 3 years and 3 over 3 years
are allowed on the climbing
equipment, how many ways can
this be done?
(c) Find the probability that
Allan, who is 2 years old, and his
friend Hannah, who is 4 years
old, will both be included in
the group chosen to play on the
climbing equipment.
16. A school committee is to be made

up of 5 teachers, 4 students and
3parents.
(a) If 12 teachers, 25 students
and 7 parents apply to be on
the committee, which is chosen
at random, how many possible
committees could be formed?
(b) If Jan and her mother both
apply, find the probability that
both will be chosen for the
committee.
17. Tom chooses 2 kittens at random
from a litter of 3 male and
2female kittens.
selections could he make if his
selection is random?
(b) If Tom selects 1 male and
1female kitten, how many ways
can he do this?
18. A sample of 3 coins is taken at
random from a bag containing
8ten cent coins and 8 twenty
cent coins.
(a) In how many ways can the
selection be made?
(b) Find the probability that
a particular ten cent coin will
be chosen, if 2 ten cent and
1twenty cent coins are chosen.
19. A basketball team of 2 men and

3women is to be chosen at
random from a group of 5 male
and 7female players.
selection be made?
(b) If Mike has to be in the
team, in how many ways can the
selection be made?
(c) If George and his girlfriend
both try out for the team, find
the probability that neither will
be chosen in the team.
20. A group of 8 people is chosen
at random from a class of
30students to go on a hike.
group be selected?
(b) Out of 12 teachers, 2 are
chosen to go on the hike with
the students. In how many ways
can the teachers be selected at
random?
(c) Mr Baldwins favourite
student is Paula. Find the
probability that they will both be
chosen.
Binomial probability distribution

In the last chapter you saw how Pascals triangle can be written using
combinations, or the coefficients of binomial products. Pascals triangle is also
useful in probability.
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Class Investigation
1. By using a tree diagram or otherwise, complete the table with the
number of ways of getting different combinations of heads and tails
when tossing coins.
Number
ofcoins
Number of combinations
1 head
1 tail
2 heads
1 head
2 tails
1tail
3
4
5
3 heads
4 heads
5 heads
2 heads
1 head
3 tails
1tail
2tails
3 heads
2 heads
1 head
1tail
2tails
3tails
4 heads
3 heads
2 heads
1 head
1tail
2tails
3tails
4tails
4 tails
5 tails
2. Can you see a link between these results and Pascals triangle?
Let the probability of heads be p and the probability of tails be q when

tossing a coin. Investigate all the possible outcomes for tossing different
numbers of coins.
Example
A tree diagram shows all possible outcomes for when 3 coins are tossed.
Solution
Total probabilities = p 3 + 3p 2 q + 3pq 2 + q 3
= (p + q) 3
If p is the probability of success and q is the probability of failure for an

event, then the probability of r successes in n independent events is given by
P ] r successes g = n C r p r q n r
Proof
Let p be the probability of 1 success.
Then the probability of r successes is p p p f p.
i.e. p r
Let the probability of failure be q.
Then r successes in n events means (n r) failures.
The probability of (n r) failures is q q q q.
i.e. q n r
There are n C r ways of getting r successes from n events.
` P ] r successes g = nCr p r q n r
This means that when n trials are performed, with probabilities p and q
possible, then the total of probabilities is ^ p + q hn .
Examples
1
of producing white flowers. If
3
4 plants are grown, find the probability that 1 plant will produce white
flowers.
1. A certain plant has a probability of
Solution
1
3
2
P (Not white) =
3
P (W ) =
continued
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536
If we draw a probability tree, we can see all the different ways in which
1plant out of the 4 will produce white flowers.
There are 4 different ways this can happen:

WNNN
NWNN
NNWN
NNNW
However, we could find the number of ways this can happen without a
probability tree. We use combinations.
Number of ways = 4 C 1
=4
To find the probability of each combination, we multiply along the
branches of the probability tree.
e.g. P ] WNNN g =
1 2 2 2

3 3 3 3
Each other combination has the same probability (the fractions are just in
a different order).
1 1
2 3
So each combination has probability c m c m .
3
3
1
3
1
2
So P (1 white) = 4 C 1 c m c m
3
3
32
=
81
2. Maria tosses 8 coins. Find the probability of tossing 5 heads.
Solution
1
2
1
P (T) =
2
P (H ) =
There are 8C5 different ways of getting 5 heads when tossing 8 coins.
5
1 3
The probability of getting 5 heads is c 1 m and 3 tails is c m .
2
2
1 5 1 3
So P (5 heads) = 8 C 5 c m c m
2
2
7
=
32
3. If I throw 5 dice in a game of Yahtzee, find the probability of throwing
3 sixes.
Solution
P (6) =
5
1
and P ] not 6 g =
6
6
1 3 5 53
P ] 3 sixes g = 5 C 3 c m c m
6
6
3
5 2
1
= 5 C3 c m c m
6
6
25
1
= 10
216 36
250
=
7776
125
=
3888
4. A car assembly plant has a certain machine with an average
probability of 0.1 of breaking down. If the assembly plant has 8 of these
machines, what is the probability, correct to 3 decimal places, that at least
6 will be in good working order at any one time?
Solution
P ] broken down g = 0.1
` P (working) = 0.9
We want to find the probability of at least 6 working machines.
This means that 6 or 7 or 8 are working.
P (6) = 8 C 6 ] 0.9 g6 ] 0.1 g2
P (7) = 8 C 7 ] 0.9 g7 ] 0.1 g1
P (8) = 8 C 8 ] 0.9 g8 ] 0.1 g0
Remember when there is more than one answer, we add them together.
So P (at least 6 working) = P (6) + P (7) + P (8)
= 8 C 6 (0.9) 6 (0.1) 2 + 8 C 7 (0.9) 7 (0.1) 1 + 8 C 8 (0.9) 8 (0.1) 0
= 0.962
We can use the binomial theorem for further probability questions.
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Example
A supermarket display contains 5 different brands of tomato paste,
including TomTom brand. Over the period of a week, 80 people randomly
buy tomato paste.
(a) What is the greatest number of people likely to buy the TomTom (TT)
brand?
(b) Find the probability of this number of people buying the TT brand,
correct to 2 decimal places.
Solution
(a) There are 5 brands and people are buying these randomly.
1
So P ] TT g =
5
4
P ] other brands g =

5
Let k be the number of people that buy the TT brand.
1 k 4 80 k
P (TT) = 80 Ck c m c m
5
5
To find the greatest number of people, we find the value of k that gives
the greatest value of P(TT)

You learned how to find the
greatest value of coefficients
in the previous chapter.
1 k 4 80 k
Tk + 1 = 80 C k c m c m
5
5
1 k 1 4 80
Tk = 80 C k 1 c m c m
5
5
Comparing coefficients:
Tk + 1
Tk
1 k 4 80 k
Ck c m c m
5
5
=
]
g
k1
1
4 80 k 1
80
Ck 1 c m c m
5
5
1
80
Ck c m
5
=
4
80
Ck 1 c m
5
80
Ck
1 4

= 80
Ck 1 5 5
80
80
]k 1 g
=
=
80
Ck
Ck 1
80
Ck
4 80 C k 1
1 5
5 4
=
=
=
80!
] 80 k g !k!
4 ] 80! g
6 80 ] k 1 g @ ! (k 1)!
6 80 ] k 1 g @ ! (k 1)!
80!
] 80 k g !k!
4 ] 80! g
80 ] k 1 g
4k
80 k + 1
4k
81 k
4k
For the coefficient of Tk + 1 > Tk

Tk + 1
>1
the coefficient of
Tk
i.e. 81 k > 1
4k
81 k > 4k
81 > 5k
1
16 > k
5
So for k = 1, 2, 3, 16 the coefficient of Tk + 1 > Tk

For k = 17, 18, 19, 80, the coefficient of Tk + 1 < Tk
So the term with the greatest coefficient occurs when k = 16
So the greatest number of people likely to choose the TT brand is 16
16
80 16
(b) P (TT) = 80 C 16 c 1 m c 4 m
5
5
16
1
4 64
= 80 C 16 c m c m
5
5
= 0.11
11.9 Exercises
1. A coin is tossed 10 times. Find
the probability of tossing
(a) 6 tails
(b) 3 tails
(c) 8 heads
(d) 1 head
(e) at least 9 tails.
2. A coin is tossed 7 times. Find the

probability of tossing
(a) 1 tail
(b) 6 heads
(c) at least 5 heads.
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3. Kim throws 8 dice. Find the

(a) 2 sixes
(b) 5 sixes
(c) 6 sixes
(d) at least 7 sixes
(e) fewer than 2 sixes.
4. A die is thrown 4 times. Find the
(a) 2 threes
(b) 3 ones
(c) 1 four
(d) less than 3 ones
(e) at least 3 fives.
5. The probability of an arrow
hitting a target is 0.7. If 8 arrows
are fired, find the probability of
hitting the target
(a) 5 times
(b) twice
(c) 3 times
(d) 7 times
(e) at least 6 times.
6. The probability that dogs of a
certain breed will have black
2

spots is . If a dog of this breed
5

has 5 pups, find the probability
that
(a) 3 will have black spots
(b) none will have black spots
(c) 4 will have black spots
(d) at least 3 will have black spots
(e) fewer than 3 will have black
spots.
7. The probability of a certain brand
of light globe being faulty is
1.3%. In a batch of 8 such light
globes, find the probability, as a
percentage correct to 1 decimal
place, that
(a) none will be faulty
(b) 6 will work
(c) at least 7 will work.
8. A survey showed that about 70%

of people liked Crunchy Muesli
for breakfast. If another survey is
carried out with 20 people, find
the probability that
(a) 12 people eat Crunchy Muesli
(b) 13 people eat Crunchy Muesli
(c) 9 people eat Crunchy Muesli.
9. The probability on average of a
3

traffic light being red is . If there
7

are 8 traffic lights on my way to
work, find the probability that
(a) 7 will be red
(b) 6 will be red
(c) more than 5 will be red
(d) 2 will be red
(e) they will be all green.
10. If the probability of a
manufacturers machine breaking
3

down is
, find the probability
11

that at any particular time
7machines out of a total of
20machines will be broken down
(leave your answer in index
form).
11. A photocopy machine has a
2

probability of of breaking down
5

at any one time.
(a) A business owns 2 of these
machines. Find the probability
that at any one time
(i) 1 machine is broken
down
(ii) at least 1 machine is
broken down.
(b) Another business owns 10
of these machines. Find the
probability, correct to 2 decimal
places, that at any one time
(i) 4 of these machines are
broken down
(ii) less than 3 machines are
broken down.
12. (a)A treadmill in a gym has a

4

probability of of being used out
7

of peak times. If a gym has
9 treadmills, find the probability
(to 2 decimal places) that 6 are
being used out of peak times.
(b) A stepper has a probability
4
of of being used out of peak
9
times. If a gym has 6 steppers,
find the probability that at least 5
are being used out of peak times.
(c) Find the probability that 3
treadmills and 2 steppers are
being used out of peak times.

(Answer correct to 2 decimal
places.)
13. A casino has 20 poker machines
and 8 roulette wheels. The
probability of a poker machine
1

being faulty is and the
6

probability of a roulette wheel
3

being faulty is
. Find the
11

probability that at a certain time
3 poker machines and 2 roulette
wheels are faulty (leave in index
form).
14. A school owns 12 data projectors
and 8 smart boards. The
probability of a data projector
being used in a certain period is
3

and the probability of a smart
4

board being used in the same
5

period is . Find the probability
6

that 3 data projectors and 5 smart
boards are being used at this time
(in index form).
15. A quiz has 20 multiple choice
questions, each with a choice
of 4answers. If Jay guesses an
answer for each question at
he will score 75% on this quiz,
correct to 2 significant figures.
16. A library has 10 different books

on ancient history. If 70 people
borrow one of these books at
random over a period of months,
what is the greatest number of
people likely to borrow the book
Catullus and Co?
17. Silvana rolls a die 50 times.
(a) What is the greatest number
of 6s is she likely to roll?
(b) Find the probability of
Silvana rolling this number of 6s
(leave in index form).
18. Phuong takes the 4 aces from
a deck of cards and randomly
selects an ace out of these 4 cards
over 100 experiments.
(a) What is the greatest number

of times that he is likely to have
selected the ace of hearts?
(b) Find the probability that
he selects the ace of hearts this
number of times (to 3 significant
figures).
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19. One bag contains 5 blue and

3yellow balls and another bag
contains 7 blue and 2 yellow balls.
(a) A ball is drawn out at
random from each bag. Find the
(i) 2 blue balls
(ii) one yellow and one blue
ball
(iii) at least one yellow ball.
(b) A bag is chosen at random
and a ball drawn out. What is the
probability that it is blue?
(c) A bag is chosen at random
and a ball drawn out. The result is
recorded, then the ball is placed
back in the bag. If this is done
20 times, find the probability of
drawing out 12 blue balls correct
to 3 decimal places.
20. One bag contains 3 black and

4 white balls and another bag
contains 5 black and 3 white balls.
(a) A bag is chosen at random
and a ball drawn out. What is the
probability that it is white?
(b) A bag is chosen at random
and a ball drawn out. The result is
recorded, then the ball is placed
back in the bag. If this is done
15 times, find the probability
of drawing out 9 white balls
(to3decimal places).
Test Yourself 11
1. The probability that a certain type
of seed will germinate is 93%. If 3 of
this type of seeds are planted, find the
probability that
(a) all will germinate
(b) just 1 will germinate
(c) at least 1 will germinate.
2. A game is played where the differences of
the numbers on 2 dice are taken.
(a) Draw a table showing the sample
space (all possibilities).
(b) Find the probability of getting a
difference of
(i) 3
(ii) 0
(iii) 1 or 2.
3. Mark buys 5 tickets in a raffle in which
200 are sold altogether.
(a) What is the probability that he will
(i) win
(ii) not win the raffle?
(b) If the raffle has 2 prizes, find the
probability that Mark will win just
1prize.
6. A set of 100 cards numbered 1 to 100is

placed in a box and one drawn at
random. Find the probability that the
card chosen will be
(a) odd
(b) less than 30
(c) a multiple of 5
(d) less than 30 or a multiple of 5
(e) odd or less than 30.
4. In a class of 30 students, 17 study

history, 11 study geography and 5 study
neither. One of these students is chosen
at random. Find the probability that this
student will
(a) study geography but not history
(b) study both history and geography.
9. There are 7 different colours and 8

different sizes of leather jackets in a
shop. If Jean selects a jacket at random,
find the probability that she will select
one the same size and colour as her
friend does.
5. In the casino, when tossing 2 coins,

2tails came up 10 times in a row. So there
is less chance that 2 tails will come up
next time. Is this statement true? Why?
3
of
5
winning and a second game has a
2
probability of of winning. If Jenny
3
plays one of each game, find the
probability that she wins
(a) both games
(b) one game
(c) neither game.
7. One game has a probability of

8. A bag contains 5 black and 7 white

marbles. Two are chosen at random from
the bag (a) with replacement (b) without
replacement. Find the probability of
getting a black and a white marble.
10. Each of a certain type of machine in

a factory has a probability of 4.5%
of breaking down at any time. If the
factory has 3 of these machines, find the
(a) all will be broken down
(b) at least one will be broken down.
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11. In how many ways can a 3 digit number

be made at random from the digits 1, 2,
3, 4 and 5 if
(a) no digit may be used twice?
(b) the digits may be repeated and the
number is greater than 300?
12. A bag contains 4 yellow, 3 red and 6 blue
balls. Two are chosen at random. Find
the probability of choosing
(a) 2 yellow balls
(b) a red and a blue ball
(c) 2 blue balls.
13. The probability that advertisements are
showing when changing TV channels
2

at random is . If George changes
5

channels 6 times during an evening, find
the probability that advertisements are
showing
(a) on 2 occasions
(b) more than 4 times.
14. In a class of 25 students, 4 are selected at
random to attend a workshop.
(a) What is the probability that 4 friends
are chosen?
(b) If there are 16 females and 9 males
in the class, in how many ways can 2
females and 2 males be selected for the
workshop?
15. In a group of 12 friends, 8 have seen the
movie Star Wars 20 and 9 have seen the
movie Mission Impossible 6. Everyone in
the group has seen at least one of these
movies. If one of the friends is chosen
at random, find the probability that this
person has seen
(a) both movies
(b) only Mission Impossible 6.
16. Twelve people are to be seated around a

table.
(a) In how many ways can they be
seated?
(b) In how many ways can they be seated
if 2 particular people are not to be put
together?
(c) Find the probability that 2 friends
will be seated together.
17. A game of chance has a

2
probability of
5
3
probability of a draw.
8
(a) If I play one of these games, find the
probability of losing.
(b) If I play 2 of these games, find the
probability of
(i) a win and a draw
(ii) a loss and a draw
(iii) 2 wins.
a win or a
18. A card is chosen at random from a set

of 10 cards numbered 1 to 10. A second
card is chosen from a set of 20 cards
numbered 1 to 20. Find the probability
that the combination number these cards
make is
(a) 911
(b) less than 100
(c) between 300 and 500.
2
probability of
3
coming up 6. The other numbers have
an equal probability of coming up. If the
die is rolled, find the probability that it
comes up
(a) 2
(b) even.
19. A loaded die has a

20. In how many ways can the word

AUSTRALIA be arranged?
21. Amie buys 3 raffle tickets. If 150 tickets

are sold altogether, find the probability
that Amie wins
(a) 1st prize
(b) only 2nd prize
(c) 1st and 2nd prizes
(d) neither prize.
22. A bag contains 6 white, 8 red and 5 blue
balls. If two balls are selected at random,
find the probability of choosing a red
and a blue ball
23. A group of 9 friends go to the movies. If
5 buy popcorn and 7 buy ice creams, find
the probability that one friend chosen at
random will have
(a) popcorn but not ice cream

(b) both popcorn and ice cream.
24. The probability that an arrow will hit a
8

target is .
9
(a) If 3 arrows are fired, find the
probability that
(i) 2 hit the target
(ii) at least 1 hits the target.
(b) If 12 arrows are fired, find the
probability that 5 hit the target
(to2significant figures).
3
5
and the probability of winning Game B is
7
. Find the probability of winning
10
(a) both games
(b) neither game
(c) one game.
25. The probability of winning Game A is

Challenge Exercise 11
1. In a group of 35 students, 25 go to the
movies and 15 go to the football. If all
the students like at least one of these
activities, find the probability that a
student chosen at random will
(a) go to both the movies and the
football
(b) only go to the movies.
2. In a train compartment, there are 8 seats,
with 4 facing the front and 4 facing
backwards.
(a) If 5 people sit in the compartment, in
how many ways can they be arranged?
(b) If 2 of the people do not like sitting
backwards, in how many ways can the

5people be arranged?
(c) Find the probability that 2 particular
people will sit opposite each other if
seating is arranged at random.
3. In how many different ways can the
word MISSISSIPPI be arranged?
4. A certain soccer team has a probability of
0.5 of winning a match and a probability
of 0.2 of drawing. If the team plays 2
matches, find the probability that it will
(a) draw both matches
(b) win at least 1 match
(c) not win either match.
545
546
5. A game of poker uses a deck of 52 cards

with 4 suits (hearts, diamonds, spades
and clubs). Each suit has 13 cards,
consisting of an ace, cards numbered
from 2 to 10, a jack, queen and king.
If a person is dealt 5 cards find the
(a) four aces
(b) a flush (all cards the same suit).
6. I throw a coin k times. Find an
expression to describe the probability
ofthrowing
(a) at least 1 tail
(b) (k 3) heads
(c) 9 tails.
7. The probability of an egg hatching out at
a certain farm is 73%.
(a) If there are 20 eggs, find the
probability that they will all hatch.
(b) Find the probability that 17 eggs will
hatch.
(c) Find the probability that k eggs will
hatch.
8. Twelve students sit at a round table.
(a) How many ways can they be
arranged?
(b) If 4 students wish to sit together,
how many seating arrangements can be
made?
(c) Find the probability that 2 friends
will be separated from each other if the
seating arrangement is random.
9. A boat has 2 seats facing the bow and 2
seats facing aft. Four people are sitting in
the boat.
(a) How many ways can they be
arranged in the seats?
(b) One person does not like to sit facing
aft. How many ways can the seating be
arranged?
10. A squad of 8 is chosen at random from

3 baseball teams with 10 players in each
team.
(a) In how many ways can this squad be
selected?
(b) If 5 of the squad are chosen from the
A team, and 2 from the B team, and 1
is chosen from the C team, how many
ways can the squad be formed?
(c) Find the probability that Joe from the
B team and Dan from the A team will be
chosen.
11. There are n seats around a circular table,
and n people are arranged randomly
around the table.
(a) In how many ways can they be
arranged?
(b) What is the probability of 2 particular
people sitting together?
(c) Show that the probability of 3
particular people sitting together is
6

.
(n 1) (n 2)
(d) What is the probability of k people
sitting together?
12. If a card is drawn out at random from a
set of playing cards find the probability
that it will be
(a) an ace or a heart
(b) a diamond or an odd number
(c) a jack or a spade.
13. Bill does not select the numbers 1, 2,
3, 4, 5 and 6 for Lotto as he says this
combination would never win. Is he
correct?
14. In a set of 5 cards, each has one of the

letters A, B, C, D and E on it. If two cards
are selected at random with replacement,
(a) both cards are As
(b) one card is an A and the other is a D
(c) neither card is an A or D.
17. A game involves tossing 2 coins and

rolling 2 dice. The scoring is shown in
the table.
15. In the game of Yahtzee, 5 dice are rolled.

Find the probability of rolling
(a) all 6s
(b) all the same number
(c) 3 6s
16. Out of a class of 30 students, 19 play a
musical instrument and 7 play both a
musical instrument and a sport. Two
students play neither.
(a) One student is selected from the class
at random. Find the probability that this
person plays a sport but not a musical
instrument.
(b) Two people are selected at random
from the class. Find the probability that
both these people only play a sport.
Result
Score (points)
2 heads and
double 6
2 heads and
double (not 6)
2 tails and double 6
2 tails and double

(not 6)
(a) Find the probability of getting

2heads and a double 6.
(b) Find the probability of getting 2 tails
and a double that is not 6.
(c) What is the probability that Andre will
score 13 in three moves?
(d) What is the probability that Justin
will beat Andres score in three moves?
547

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