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    BUAD 831 Assignment 1

    Uploaded by

    Shubhangi Dhokane
    This document contains instructions for an assignment with multiple forecasting problems. For problem 1, students are given historical sales data and asked to use different forecasting models including 3-month and 5-month moving averages and exponential smoothing to forecast sales for periods 6-11. They are then asked to compare the forecasts and select the best model. For problem 2, students are given tuition data and asked to use a linear model to forecast a 4-year tuition total. For problem 3, students are given inventory data and asked questions about forecast accuracy and the best performance measure to evaluate forecasting methods. The document concludes with an optional extra credit question about correcting a typo in a demand forecast.

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    BUAD 831 Assignment 1

    Uploaded by

    Shubhangi Dhokane
    157 views2 pages
    This document contains instructions for an assignment with multiple forecasting problems. For problem 1, students are given historical sales data and asked to use different forecasting models including 3-month and 5-month moving averages and exponential smoothing to forecast sales for periods 6-11. They are then asked to compare the forecasts and select the best model. For problem 2, students are given tuition data and asked to use a linear model to forecast a 4-year tuition total. For problem 3, students are given inventory data and asked questions about forecast accuracy and the best performance measure to evaluate forecasting methods. The document concludes with an optional extra credit question about correcting a typo in a demand forecast.

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    This document contains instructions for an assignment with multiple forecasting problems. For problem 1, students are given historical sales data and asked to use different forecasting models including 3-month and 5-month moving averages and exponential smoothing to forecast sales for periods 6-11. They are then asked to compare the forecasts and select the best model. For problem 2, students are given tuition data and asked to use a linear model to forecast a 4-year tuition total. For problem 3, students are given inventory data and asked questions about forecast accuracy and the best performance measure to evaluate forecasting methods. The document concludes with an optional extra credit question about correcting a typo in a demand forecast.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    157 views2 pages

    BUAD 831 Assignment 1

    Uploaded by

    Shubhangi Dhokane
    This document contains instructions for an assignment with multiple forecasting problems. For problem 1, students are given historical sales data and asked to use different forecasting models including 3-month and 5-month moving averages and exponential smoothing to forecast sales for periods 6-11. They are then asked to compare the forecasts and select the best model. For problem 2, students are given tuition data and asked to use a linear model to forecast a 4-year tuition total. For problem 3, students are given inventory data and asked questions about forecast accuracy and the best performance measure to evaluate forecasting methods. The document concludes with an optional extra credit question about correcting a typo in a demand forecast.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 2

    BUAD 831

    Dr. Hyde
    Assignment 1
    Forecasting
    1. (30 points)

    Using the data below,

    a) Use a 3-month moving average model to forecast sales for periods 6-11.
    b) Use a 5-month moving average model to forecast sales for periods 6-11.
    c) Use an exponential smoothing model with =.2 to forecast sales for periods 6-11. Assume a
    forecast of 65,000 for period 5.
    d) Use an exponential smoothing model with =.6 to forecast sales for periods 6-11. Assume a
    forecast of 65,000 for period 5.
    e) Compare the forecasts in (a)-(d) for periods 6 - 10. Which is best? Why? Support your answer
    with appropriate statistics.
    f) Starting with your solution to part (d), complete a double smoothing model for periods 6 -10 for
    sales. Again, assume a forecast of 65,000 for period 5.
    Note: Do parts a-d, and f using Excel.
    Period
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    2.

    Sales
    $35,725
    $47,180
    $54,965
    $63,220
    $66,315
    $57,730
    $62,700
    $60,025
    $74,590
    $83,900

    See the posted Excel file with UD tuition data from 2000 2014. You have a daughter who is
    currently in 7th grade. She hopes to attend UD right after she finishes high school. Given the data
    in the attached file, use a linear model to forecast her TOTAL associated 4-year tuition and
    mandatory fees (rounded to the nearest $1,000). Use the data set that reflects your residency status.
    If you use the trendline option to generate the linear model, Id suggest using t as the independent
    variable. Otherwise, Excel will generate your trend line equation using scientific notation and
    youll have to change the formatting to get the exact number you need. 12 pts
    Note: The data does NOT include study abroad tuition and program fees. When you finish the problem,
    pick your jaw up off the floor and proceed to Problem #3.

    3.

    The table below shows historical data regarding actual and projected inventory levels.
    Period
    Actual

    1 2
    50 70

    3
    60

    Forecaste

    40 65

    70

    4
    20
    80

    5
    10
    70

    6
    65

    7
    60

    8
    85

    75

    50

    80

    8 pts

    d
    a)
    b)
    c)

    For periods 1 8, on average, did the forecast underestimate or overestimate? And, by how
    many units, on average, did the forecast underestimate /overestimate per period? You must
    justify your answer with calculations.
    For periods 1 8, the forecast deviated from actual by an average of _______ units per period.
    You must justify your answer with calculations.
    In this particular case, which performance measure would be best to evaluate various
    forecasting methods for monthly ending inventory BIAS, MAD or MSE? Justify your
    answer.

    EXTRA CREDIT (4 pts)


    My policy is to provide no input/help on extra credit questions. Also, its all or nothing full credit or
    no credit.
    You just took over as regional manager for one of your companys up-and-coming products. The
    product went on the market December 2013; its now January 2015. The product has been experiencing
    slow growth (as expected). Exponential smoothing with trend has been used to forecast monthly
    demand for the product during these past 13 months. Youve looked at the forecasted vs actual for the
    past few months and the forecast seems to be performing adequately.
    One of your employees just told you that she has discovered a typo in the initial December forecast. It
    was entered as 50,000 but should have been 5,000. The forecast over the past 12 months has never been
    corrected.
    What are you going to do about next months forecast? (You must justify your course of action.)

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