Probability of Win: Total Expectancy Using Martingale

Probability of win
Trial 1
Trial 2
Bet size
b1
Outcome
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Win
Win
Win
Loss
Win
Loss
Loss
Loss
Probability Bet size

p1
b2
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
Outcome
Win
Win
Loss
Win
Loss
Win
Loss
Loss
Trial 3
p2
b3
0.5
0.5
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
-0.5
Outcome
1
1
2
1
2
1
4
4
Win
Loss
Win
Win
Loss
Loss
Win
Loss
Total expectancy using Martingale

Trial 1
Bet size
b1
Outcome
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Win
Win
Win
Loss
Win
Loss
Loss
Loss
Trial 2
p1
b2
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Outcome
Win
Win
Loss
Win
Loss
Win
Loss
Loss
Trial 3
p2
b3
0.5
0.5
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
-0.5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Outcome
Win
Loss
Win
Win
Loss
Loss
Win
Loss
Total expectancy using fixed size betting
The above illustrates, over 3 trials, that the Martingale offers no edge in expectancy ov
Only by changing the win probability in the yellow cell, can we alter expectancy.
50%
Trial 3
Final expectancy
Probability
b1p1 + b2p2 + b3p3
p3
0.5
-0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.5
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
le
1.5
0.5
1.0
1.0
-1.0
0.0
0.5
-3.5
0.0
Trial 3
etting
Final expectancy
Probability
b1p1 + b2p2 + b3p3
p3
0.5
-0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.5
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1.5
0.0
edge in expectancy over flat betting.

lter expectancy.
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
000001 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 5
000010 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5
000011
000100 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5
000101 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 4 4
000110
0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 4
000111
0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 1 2 3 3 3 3
001000 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5
001001 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 4 4
0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 4
10 001010 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4
11
001011
0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 1 2 2 3 3 3
12
001100
0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 4
13
001101
0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 3 3
Perm#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
14
001110
0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 3
15
001111
0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 1 2 2 2 2 2
16 010000 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5
17 010001 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 4 4
18 010010 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 4
19
010011
0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 3 3 3
20 010100 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 4
21 010101 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 3 3
22
010110
0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 3
23
010111
0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 4 1 1 2 2 2 2
24
011000
0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4
25
011001
0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 2 3 1 1 1 2 3 3
26
011010
0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 2 3
27
011011
0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 2 3 4 1 1 1 2 2 2
28
011100
0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 3
29
011101
0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 3 3 4 1 1 1 1 2 2
30
011110
0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 2
31
011111
0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 1 1 1 1 1
32 100000 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
33 100001 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 2 3 4 4
34 100010 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 2 3 3 4
35
100011
1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 3 3
36 100100 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 1 2 2 3 4
37 100101 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 0 1 2 2 3 3
38
100110
1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 0 1 2 2 2 3
39
100111
1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 2 2 2
40 101000 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 0 1 1 2 3 4
41 101001 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 0 1 1 2 3 3
42 101010 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 0 1 1 2 2 3
43
101011
1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 0 1 1 2 2 2
44
101100
1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 3 0 1 1 1 2 3
45
101101
1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 0 1 1 1 2 2
46
101110
1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 0 1 1 1 1 2
47
101111
1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 1 1 1 1
48
110000
1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 1 2 3 4
49
110001
1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 0 0 1 2 3 3
50
110010
1 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 2 3 3 0 0 1 2 2 3
51
110011
1 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 0 0 1 2 2 2
52
110100
1 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 1 1 2 3
53
110101
1 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 0 0 1 1 2 2
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
54
110110
1 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 2 3 4 4 0 0 1 1 1 2
55
110111
1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 0 0 1 1 1 1
56
111000
1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 1 2 3
57
111001
1 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 0 0 0 1 2 2
58
111010
1 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 3 3 4 4 0 0 0 1 1 2
59
111011
1 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 0 0 0 1 1 1
60
111100
1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 1 2
61
111101
1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 0 0 0 0 1 1
62
111110
1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 1
63
111111
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
##################
##################
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
The table below illustrates, over 6 (or less) trials, that the Martingale offers no edge in exp
any betting system and playing strategy, and convince yourself that it's impossible to alter
The key value is the "Expectancy divided by ave bet size" (gray background). The table co
To simulate Martingale betting: upon a win, multiply bet size by 0, and then add 1 (reverts
To simulate anti-Martingale betting: upon a win, multiply bet size by 2, and then add 0 (do
To simulate d'Alembert betting: upon a win, multiply bet size by 1, and add 1 (reduces y
To simulate flat betting: upon a win, multiply bet size by 1, and then add 0 (retains bet size
Game Parameters
6
Maximum number of trials (16)
Expectancy
Average win size
RR =
Average loss size
EV or Profit Factor =
Probability of win
50.0%
Kelly value =
Betting system (MM)
Outcomes
LLLLLL
LLLLLW
LLLLWL
LLLLWW
LLLWLL
LLLWLW
LLLWWL
LLLWWW
LLWLLL
LLWLLW
LLWLWL
LLWLWW
LLWWLL
LLWWLW
Starting bet size
Upon a win, multiply prior bet size by
and then add
Upon a loss, multiply prior bet size by
and then add
Quit after how many wins?
(6 = never quit)
Quit after how many losses?
(6 = never quit)
Bet size
1
Trial 1
Outcome
Loss
Expectancy
-0.50
Bet size
2
Trial 2
Outcome
Loss
Expectancy
-0.50
Bet size
4
Trial 3
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
LLWWWL
LLWWWW
LWLLLL
LWLLLW
LWLLWL
LWLLWW
LWLWLL
LWLWLW
LWLWWL
LWLWWW
LWWLLL
LWWLLW
LWWLWL
LWWLWW
LWWWLL
LWWWLW
LWWWWL
LWWWWW
WLLLLL
WLLLLW
WLLLWL
WLLLWW
WLLWLL
WLLWLW
WLLWWL
WLLWWW
WLWLLL
WLWLLW
WLWLWL
WLWLWW
WLWWLL
WLWWLW
WLWWWL
WLWWWW
WWLLLL
WWLLLW
WWLLWL
WWLLWW
WWLWLL
WWLWLW
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
WWLWWL
WWLWWW
WWWLLL
WWWLLW
WWWLWL
WWWLWW
WWWWLL
WWWWLW
WWWWWL
WWWWWW
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Total overa
artingale offers no edge in expectancy over flat betting. Feel welcome to experiment by changing the values in the
self that it's impossible to alter expectancy, no matter what the probability of a win is, and no matter what strategy y
ray background). The table could be extended from 6 to any number of trials - the result would always be the sam
e by 0, and then add 1 (reverts bet size back to 1); upon a loss, multiply bet size by 2 and add 0 (doubles your bet
t size by 2, and then add 0 (doubles your bet); upon a loss, multiply bet size by 0 and add 1 (reverts bet size back
e by 1, and add 1 (reduces your bet); upon a loss, multiply bet size by 1 and add 1 (increases your bet).
nd then add 0 (retains bet size); upon a loss, multiply bet size by 1 and add 0 (retains bet size).
Total overall expectancy
0.00
Average bet size
2.25
Expectancy divided by ave bet size
0.00
1.00
Percentage of positive outcomes
78%
0.00
1
0
Trial 3
Outcome
Loss
Expectancy
-0.50
Bet size
8
Trial 4
Outcome
Loss
Expectancy
-0.50
Bet size
16
Trial 5
Outcome
Loss
Expectancy
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
16
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
16
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
16
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Loss
-0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Win
0.50
Total overall expectancy
by changing the values in the yellow cells to simulate

and no matter what strategy you use.
esult would always be the same.
2 and add 0 (doubles your bet).

d add 1 (reverts bet size back to 1).
(increases your bet).
ns bet size).
Bet size
32
Trial 6
Outcome
Loss
Expectancy
-0.50
32
Win
0.50
0.50
Loss
-0.50
0.00
Win
0.50
1.00
Loss
-0.50
-1.00
Win
0.50
1.00
Loss
-0.50
0.50
Win
0.50
1.50
Loss
-0.50
-3.00
Win
0.50
1.00
Loss
-0.50
0.50
Win
0.50
1.50
Loss
-0.50
-0.50
Win
0.50
1.50
Final
expectancy
-31.50
Loss
-0.50
1.00
Win
0.50
2.00
Loss
-0.50
-7.00
Win
0.50
1.00
Loss
-0.50
0.50
Win
0.50
1.50
Loss
-0.50
-0.50
Win
0.50
1.50
Loss
-0.50
1.00
Win
0.50
2.00
Loss
-0.50
-2.50
Win
0.50
1.50
Loss
-0.50
1.00
Win
0.50
2.00
Loss
-0.50
0.00
Win
0.50
2.00
Loss
-0.50
1.50
Win
0.50
2.50
16
Loss
-0.50
-15.00
16
Win
0.50
1.00
Loss
-0.50
0.50
Win
0.50
1.50
Loss
-0.50
-0.50
Win
0.50
1.50
Loss
-0.50
1.00
Win
0.50
2.00
Loss
-0.50
-2.50
Win
0.50
1.50
Loss
-0.50
1.00
Win
0.50
2.00
Loss
-0.50
0.00
Win
0.50
2.00
Loss
-0.50
1.50
Win
0.50
2.50
Loss
-0.50
-6.50
Win
0.50
1.50
Loss
-0.50
1.00
Win
0.50
2.00
Loss
-0.50
0.00
Win
0.50
2.00
Loss
-0.50
1.50
Win
0.50
2.50
Loss
-0.50
-2.00
Win
0.50
2.00
Loss
-0.50
1.50
Win
0.50
2.50
Loss
-0.50
0.50
Win
0.50
2.50
Loss
-0.50
2.00
Win
0.50
3.00
0.00

Probability of Win: Total Expectancy Using Martingale

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Probability of Win: Total Expectancy Using Martingale

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Probability of win

Probability Bet size

Total expectancy using Martingale

Total expectancy using fixed size betting

edge in expectancy over flat betting.

Maximum number of trials (16)

Average loss size

Betting system (MM)

Starting bet size

Upon a win, multiply prior bet size by

and then add

Upon a loss, multiply prior bet size by

and then add

Quit after how many wins?

Quit after how many losses?

Total overall expectancy

Average bet size

Expectancy divided by ave bet size

Percentage of positive outcomes

Total overall expectancy

by changing the values in the yellow cells to simulate

2 and add 0 (doubles your bet).

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