Y 2015 Annual Letter
Y 2015 Annual Letter
Y 2015 Annual Letter
Alleghanys common stockholders equity per share at year-end 2015 was $486.02, an
increase of 4.4% from common stockholders equity per share of $465.51 at year-end 2014.
For 2015, Alleghany reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $560.3
million, or $35.14 per share, while changes in the market value of our investments and
other items reduced book value per share by $14.63 per share. For the five years ended
December 31, 2015, Alleghanys common stockholders equity per share increased at a
compound annual rate of 8.4%, compared to a compound annual rate of return of 12.6% for
the S&P 500 over the same time period. A year ago in my letter I suggested that the S&P
500 might be at an elevated level and unfortunately my observation is looking correct -since the end of 2014, the S&P 500 has had a negative total return.
The table below summarizes Alleghanys longer-term performance. For the ten years
ended December 31, 2015, Alleghanys common stockholders equity per share
increased at a compound annual rate of 8.6%, compared to a compound annual rate of
return of 7.3% for the S&P 500 over the same time period, and a compound annual rate
of return of 7.4% for the Russell 30003. Alleghanys share price appreciated at a 6.6%
compound annual rate of return over the past decade (adjusted for stock dividends).
Alleghanys share price performance lagged the growth in book value per share
because the share price was 119% of book value on December 31, 2005, and was 98%
of book value on December 31, 2015.
Although our growth rate in book value per share was modest in 2015, we are satisfied
with the result given the low levels of returns available elsewhere in the capital markets.
Over the past decade, our book value per share has increased in every year but one
2008 when it declined 5.0%, compared to a 37.0% decline in the S&P 500.
Performance Summary
Average Annual Return or Growth Rate
Periods Ended December 31, 2015
Alleghany
Stock Price2
4.4%
3.1%
8.5%
12.4%
8.4%
9.7%
8.6%
6.6%
BVPS1
1 year
3 years
5 years
10 years
1
S&P 500
1.4%
15.0%
12.6%
7.3%
Russell
30003
0.5%
14.7%
12.2%
7.4%
% of Beg.
Equity
6.8%
(73)
(98)
(171)
(1.0)
(1.4)
(2.4)
Share repurchases
Foreign exchange
Other items, net
Increase in common stockholders equity
(244)
(15)
3
81
(3.2)
(0.2)
0.0
1.0%
Strong underwriting results at TransRe and RSUI Group were the principal driver of
book value growth in 2015. Investment returns were negligible: including interest and
dividend income, our bond portfolios returned 0.3%, and our equity portfolios returned a
negative 1.5%. Although nominal growth in stockholders equity was only 1.0%, per
share growth was 4.4% as we reduced Alleghanys share count by 3.2% in 2015. This
4.4% increase in the per share value of Alleghany follows a 12.7% increase in 2014.
In 2015 we repurchased $244 million of Alleghany shares at an average price of
$468.45, or about a 4% discount to year-end 2015 common stockholders equity per
share. In addition, unlike much of Corporate America, we reduced our aggregate debt
outstanding. Debt to total capital was 15.5% at year-end 2015, compared to 19.1% at
year-end 2014. Total long-term debt decreased by $377 million from $1,767 million to
$1,390 million, and we ended 2015 with over $800 million of marketable investments
at Alleghany Corporation and its non-regulated subsidiaries. We are sometimes asked
why we are deleveraging at this point, with interest rates so low. The answer is when
heading into stormy seas it makes sense to batten down the hatches. We believe that
financial flexibility and corporate resiliency will be more valuable in 2016 and
beyond.
The table below summarizes our 2015 growth in book value per share in more detail:
Beginning Equity
RSUI
$1,587
Other4
$ 756
Total
$7,473
408
148
(48)
508
94
54
(9)
139
TransRe
$5,130
Operating Income
Net realized gains, after
tax
Impairment losses, after
tax
Net earnings
(46)
$ 456
(15)
$ 187
(26)
$ (83)
(87)
$ 560
Other Changes5
Capital Transactions
Ending Equity
(126)
(250)
$5,210
(58)
(150)
$1,566
(50)
156
$ 779
(234)
(244)
$7,555
(6.3)%
(18.4)%
6.8%
4.3%
Operating ROE
Growth in Book Value6
Growth in Book Value
Per Share
7.9%
6.4%
9.3%
8.1%
4.4%
TransRe and RSUI Group, which together account for 90% of our consolidated
stockholders equity, produced high single-digit returns on equity on an operating basis
(excluding net realized capital gains or losses and OTTI charges). Investment returns,
however, were weak in 2015 resulting in slightly lower growth in book value for each
company relative to the return on equity, which is consistent with the lackluster
performance of all investment classes in 2015.
Both TransRe and RSUI hold a significant amount of equity securities. In measuring
return on equity, we are including only the dividend income in the numerator of the
calculation, with unrealized appreciation or depreciation, net of taxes, flowing through
the balance sheet. Accordingly, return on equity understates the potential economic
return of an insurance enterprise, assuming equity investments appreciate over time.
As the table above shows, we had net assets of $779 million at the end of 2015 in addition
to the equity of TransRe and RSUI Group. The Other column includes our smaller
4
CapSpecialty, PacificComp, corporate assets, and Alleghany Capital Corporation investments, net of holding
company debt.
5 Principally the change in unrealized appreciation (depreciation) on investments, net of tax.
6 Dividends and share repurchases added back to ending equity.
5
$ 715
(997)
$ (282)
225
332
482
37
(15)
$ 779
Only the parent invested assets above are carried at market value. All of the other
investments reflect our share of each companys results, in some cases with purchase
accounting adjustments.
*****
In the case of Ares Management, LP the conversion value of our investment based on
the quoted price of Ares at December 31, 2015 was $162 million, approximately $63
million below the carrying value of our investment. Because our investment is in the
form of a limited partnership interest in certain Ares subsidiaries that is convertible into
the publicly-traded units of Ares accounting conventions require that we carry the
investment at cost adjusted for our share of earnings.
We remain constructive on the companys long-term prospects. The depressed
valuation of Ares appears to reflect investor concerns about the global economic
outlook, as well as changes to the fixed income liquidity environment. As noted by
Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan, regulatory changes requiring increased bank capital
7
8
Includes investments of AIHL. Excludes marketable securities held at Transatlantic Holdings, Inc.
Shown net of intercompany eliminations. Gross combined equity of these two companies is $407 million.
6
has reduced their role as market liquidity providers. As noted in his analysis9, fixed
income trading revenue from global investment banks has declined from approximately
$120 billion in 2009 to an estimated $60 billion in 2015. Fixed income trading assets
credit in particular are down roughly 38% over that timeframe.
From a longer point of view, we believe that Ares, like other alternative asset
managers, is very well positioned to deliver superior returns to institutional investors
and is competitively advantaged against the now highly-regulated banking industry.
Tony Ressler has assembled a first class team of investment professionals that have an
excellent long-term performance record in direct lending, tradeable credit, private
equity, and real estate.
*****
We continued to make progress in 2015 in improving the results of CapSpecialty and
PacificComp. CapSpecialty produced an almost 15% increase in net premiums written
and reduced its underwriting loss by almost 50% in 2015. PacificComp generated a
47% increase in net premiums written and reduced its underwriting loss from $19.7
million in 2014 to $13.5 million in 2015. We believe that both companies have the
potential to achieve underwriting profitability in 2016.
We also continued to build out Alleghany Capitals portfolio of non-financial
businesses. In the fourth quarter of last year Alleghany Capital acquired an 84%
ownership interest in IPS-Integrated Project Services, a leading international provider
of technical consulting, design, engineering, construction, project control,
commissioning and qualification services for technically complex facilities, primarily
in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries.
In late 2015, Alleghany Properties completed its first property sale since the 2008
Financial Crisis, and as a result reported a small profit for the year. Further sales in
2016 and beyond are now possible as the development moratorium related to required
improvements in Sacramentos levy system has been lifted. Alleghany Properties
continues to own over 300 acres in the greater Sacramento area.
As mentioned above, Alleghanys consolidated debt to total capital ratio, which was
19.1% at the beginning of the year, declined to 15.5% at the end of the year, a result of
the repayment of debt that matured in 2015 at Transatlantic Holdings, Inc. As indicated
9
When The Levee Breaks, Eye On The Market, January 19, 2016.
7
in the table above, our debt net of holding company marketable investments was only
$282 million at the end of 2015. Accordingly, our net debt to total capital ratio at the
end of 2015 was 3.7%.
Alleghanys business model
Financial markets have been extremely favorable for the past six years. Following the
2008 Financial Crisis, equity investors have enjoyed a long period of positive returns,
as the S&P 500 recovered from its early 2009 low of 666 to over 2000 at the end of
2015. Insurance markets too have been accommodating. Global catastrophe losses have
been significantly below average levels for the past three years, and liability claims
inflation has been subdued. With conditions like this, it is easy to fall into the trap of
thinking that more risk is better.
Alleghanys approach is to increase risk when the market price of risk is high and to
decrease risk when it is low. Today, expected returns on most investment classes are
low, so we have tried, for the most part, to stay at the higher end of the quality
spectrum, whether we are talking about bonds or equities. In the (re)insurance world,
we have reduced tail risk, as evidenced by the fact that our exposure to losses from
extreme events is a smaller percentage of capital than it was several years ago.
Our (re)insurance subsidiaries provide the holding company with dividends to the extent
they are profitable and are unable to reinvest their earnings to support organic growth. In
2015, for example, TransRe sent $250 million to Alleghany, and RSUI paid dividends of
$150 million. Alleghanys role, in addition to assisting our (re)insurance subsidiaries in
managing their businesses, is to redeploy this capital. We have used these dividends to
make acquisitions at Alleghany Capital, reduce debt, or repurchase shares. In 2015, of the
total upstream dividends of $400 million, $244 million was used to repurchase Alleghany
common stock and $90 million was used to acquire a controlling interest in IPS-Integrated
Project Services. TransRe has also accumulated sufficient excess capital to retire a
meaningful portion of its debt that existed at the time of the Alleghany merger.
The combination of risks which are, for the most part, independent financial returns,
non-financial profits, and insurance risks produces less volatility in the aggregate
than each risk by itself. We believe that in combination, they provide our stockholders
with a return profile that is quite attractive relative to Alleghanys risk. For the longterm stockholder, we aim to produce attractive real returns with a very low chance of
permanent capital loss. Of course, the performance of our stock price which can be
easily blown around like leaves on an autumn day can deviate from market returns
over relatively short (3-5 year) periods of time based on investor preferences, stock
price momentum, and other factors beyond our control. Because stock prices today are
8
TransRe has generated just shy of $1.6 billion of book value growth since
March 2012, which equates to a compound annual growth rate of 9.5%.
During this time, TransRe has paid Alleghany net dividends of $390 million,
redeemed $667 million of its debt at par value and added $1.2 billion to its book
value, which is up 30% to $5.2 billion at December 31, 2015 from $4.0 billion
at closing.
Alleghanys book value per share is about 10+% higher than it would have been
had we not purchased TransRe in 2012.
TransRe had another terrific year in 2015. Not only did the company report its lowest
combined ratio in its history, but it had its third highest underwriting profit ever at
$327 million (the highest was 2014 at $345 million) and had its third consecutive year
with a combined ratio of under 90%. In addition to these very strong results, TransRe
was able to retain a diversified and well-underwritten book of business in a competitive
and challenging market.
9
company was successful in writing a large whole account contract that added
significantly to gross and net written premium in the quarter. In casualty lines
(traditional and specialty), TransRe is seeing reduced demand, in part due to the
exceptionally strong results that ceding companies have experienced over the past
decade or so. TransRes international business had mixed trends in 2015. There appears
to be plenty of opportunity to write business in Asia Pacific, although TransRe has
been selective in writing business and posted only modest premium growth in the
region. In Latin America, TransRe has been able to find some growth opportunities as
well through differentiated reinsurance transactions with existing customers. In Europe,
however, the effect of intense competition is more evident, as volumes declined in
2015.
Over the past several years, TransRe has made significant investments in creating
integrated underwriting and workflow systems to improve efficiency and to assist in
better risk profile management. The companys systems are among the best in the
industry and give TransRe a competitive advantage in analyzing and optimizing risk.
*****
The low interest rate environment of the past five years, along with technological and
product innovation, has created an alternative market for reinsurance risk that is
growing and becoming an increasingly important part of the global insurance risk
management system. Pension funds and other investors are increasingly looking to
diversify their financial risk with insurance risk, particularly in the property catastrophe
arena. From a ceding companys perspective, having non-traditional suppliers of
catastrophe reinsurance assume some portion of their catastrophe reinsurance needs has
lowered costs and improved flexibility. It remains an open question the extent to which
financial investors will trade forward in this market after a major loss event.
Historically, the personal and institutional relationships between insurer and reinsurer
become extremely important after major catastrophic events.
The TransRe Capital Partners division manages TransRes capital market vehicles as
well as traditional retrocessional transactions, and has a robust and growing position in
these new markets. Side car support now exceeds $400 million, and the company has
been active in using retrocessional coverage to improve its risk-reward profile. In
addition to its Pangaea facility, TransRe is also an investor in Pillar Capital
Management, which manages catastrophe reinsurance funds.
11
Alleghany acquired RSUI in July of 2003 for an initial investment of $628 million.
Since then, our investment has been reduced to approximately $(146) million through
net upstream dividends of $774 million. The company has generated $1,549 million of
underwriting profits under our ownership, and its stockholders equity has compounded
at 11.1% adjusted for dividends and capital contributions. At year-end 2015, RSUIs
stockholders equity was approximately $1.6 billion.
CapSpecialty, Inc.
CapSpecialty made significant progress in its quest to return to underwriting profitability in
2015. The companys mission statement is to be the preferred specialty insurance and
surety company for small and mid-sized businesses in the U.S. The company pursues this
objective by hiring top underwriting talent, rebuilding the companys systems and operating
architecture, and reorganizing into industry practice groups. Under the leadership of
Stephen Sills, the company is well on its way to realizing its vision.
Net premiums written increased last year by almost 15%, resulting in an improvement
in the companys expense ratio from 49.9% in 2014 to 46.1% in 2015. CapSpecialty
has been refocusing its two legacy businesses binding authority and surety while
building out a third professional lines division. Professional lines grew 156% in 2015,
while the legacy property and casualty business and surety business declined modestly.
The combined ratio in 2015 was 102.6%, compared to 105.8% in 2014. If prior year
reserve development is excluded from both years, the combined ratio was 100.3%
compared to 105.7% in 2014.
Alleghany acquired Capitol Transamerica Corporation in January of 2002. Including
our investment in Platte River Insurance Company, which was combined with Capitol
Transamerica for management purposes, our initial investment was $242 million. Since
then, CapSpecialty as we now call it has returned approximately $130 million in
dividends to Alleghany, reducing our net investment to $112 million. At the end of
2015, CapSpecialty had stockholders equity of approximately $312 million.
Pacific Compensation Corporation
PacificComp again made very good progress in 2015 toward its goal of restoring
underwriting profitability. Jan Frank and her team have meticulously cultivated new
distribution relationships, implemented a rigorous underwriting platform, engineered
an efficient and high service organization, and significantly strengthened the
companys claims department.
13
2012
$ 19.0
2013
$ 40.8
2014
$ 69.5
2015
$101.9
Underwriting loss
Net investment income
Other income (expense)
Pretax loss
(31.2)
3.8
0.5
$ (26.9)
(33.2)
4.3
(0.9)
$ (29.8)
(19.7)
4.6
0.0
$ (15.1)
(13.5)
5.2
(0.3)
$ (8.6)
Loss ratio
Expense ratio
Combined ratio
120.0%
166.5%
286.5%
113.6%
71.7%
185.3%
81.7%
47.6%
129.3%
76.6%
36.9%
113.5%
253.2%
151.4%
125.8%
113.5%
****
Investments
Alleghanys equity portfolio returned (1.5%) in 2015, compared to the return of the
S&P 500 of +1.4% and the equal-weighted S&P 500 return of (2.2%).
In last years annual report, I said that the U.S. stock market appears to be fully- if not
over-valued, especially considering the fact that many companies are producing little
revenue growth and continue to enjoy record profit margins. Equities appear to offer
attractive returns only in comparison to the sub-2% interest rates offered on U.S.
14
government bonds. In early January, the stock market, as measured by the Russell 2000,
was about 20% below where it was at the end of 2014. I wish I had been wrong
Like most investors, we had a challenging year in 2015. As several investors have
observed, one would have to look back to 1937 to find a year in which there was so
little investment opportunity.
During 2015, we changed our equity investment strategy, reorganizing our approach to
be concentrated within individual sectors of the stock market but more diversified
across sectors. In total, our internally-managed equity portfolio had a value of $2,831
million at the end of the year10.
Our largest individual positions are shown below:
Company
Visa Inc.
Health Care SPDR
Alphabet Inc.
Walt Disney Company
CVS Health
JP Morgan Chase & Co.
Verizon Communications Inc.
Microsoft Corp.
PPG Industries Inc.
CSX Corp.
Roper Technologies
Boeing Co.
Subtotal
All other positions
Total
Value ($ mm)
$ 232.7
225.1
221.7
212.3
210.2
191.5
172.6
166.4
150.7
129.8
128.1
101.2
$ 2,142.3
688.9
$ 2,831.2
Our approach is research-intensive. We look to find companies that can reliably grow
revenues, earnings, and dividends, or which perform an essential role in the economy
that will, over time, generate attractive economic returns. In the case of the health care
sector, we determined that we are best served by indexing hence the position in the
Health Care SPDR.
10
We also have a small amount of equity securities managed by an outside manager with a focus on small
capitalization stocks.
15
Our exposure by sector compared to the 10-year trailing average weight of each sector
in the S&P 500, was as follows:
Alleghany
Weight
14.5%
11.0%
2.5%
11.0%
9.6%
12.7%
7.1%
25.6%
6.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Healthcare
Industrials
Materials
Technology
Telecommunications
Utilities
Total
Index
Weight
10.6%
10.6%
11.0%
16.5%
12.8%
10.7%
3.4%
18.0%
3.0%
3.4%
100.0%
has become less competitive, and growth is slowing. As the U.S. central bank raises
interest rates (more on this later), China needs to devalue its currency to maintain a
stable relationship to its other trading partners. Should the Federal Reserve continue to
raise interest rates, the U.S. dollar may continue to appreciate, making the situation
worse. A significant devaluation by China could be extremely disruptive to the world
economy.
According to official government statistics, the service sector now accounts for 50.5%
of the Chinese economy, up from 48.1% in 2014, while manufacturing is 40.5%. As
industrial growth slows (from 7.3% in 2014 to 6.0% in 2015 according to government
statistics), Chinas challenge is to transition to a more service-oriented economy.
Services growth was 8.3% in 2015, compared to 7.8% in 2014. Transitions of this
nature historically have not occurred smoothly.
Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, corporate debt in China increased from 98% of GDP to
160%. Total debt in China has increased from 160% of GDP to 260% at the end of last
year. Debt-fueled economic growth may have resulted in unproductive capital
investments in China. Moreover, other emerging markets Latin America, which is the
commodity supplier to China and Southeast Asia, which is the technology component
supplier also borrowed, some in U.S. dollars, to invest in capacity to support Chinaled demand.
Chinas demographic profile, massive debt overhang, and underdeveloped social safety
net will make the transition to a consumer-driven, services-intensive economy difficult.
As market forces put pressure on the countrys economy, China has been selling
reserves to protect against capital flight and currency depreciation -- a sort of reverse
QE. Chinas foreign exchange reserves have declined from a high of $4 trillion in
mid-2014 to $3.2 trillion at the end of January of this year, a decline of almost $800
billion. This is reducing U.S. dollar liquidity.
We believe that in late 2015 and continuing in 2016, world financial markets are now
in a powerful negative feedback loop. As commodity prices fall, emerging market
commodity producers some of whom have borrowed in U.S. dollars are faced with
declining commodity prices and a strengthening U.S. dollar, a deadly combination. To
come up with more U.S. dollars to service debt, they have to sell a greater volume of
the commodity, which of course causes the price to fall further. In the case of the oil
market, excess production is reducing the price of oil and reducing the volume of
petrodollars in circulation. Sovereign Wealth Funds, which total over $7 trillion
worldwide, may increasingly sell assets to fund their countries fiscal deficits.
17
The United States has not yet resolved the debt crisis
From roughly 1980 through 2005, the United States went through 25-years of
increasing debt relative to the growth in the economy. Globalization contributed to
stagnant household incomes as industrial employment withered, but consumption grew
by tapping available borrowing capacity. Economist A. Gary Shilling has demonstrated
that a fall in the savings rate from roughly 12% in the early 1980s to 2% by 2005 added
roughly 0.5% per year to U.S. GDP growth. Although one would think that 8 years
after the start of the 2008 Financial Crisis things should be getting back to normal,
Shilling demonstrates that debt imbalances have not yet returned to normal and are
not likely to do so for another 6-8 years.
Despite sluggish economic growth the recovery from the Great Recession has been
the slowest on record corporations have for the most part maintained or improved
profit margins through widespread adoption of technology, business process
improvement, and cost cutting. In acting rationally from a micro point of view,
corporations are contributing to stagnating aggregate demand.
Central banks and large-scale asset purchases: in Hotel California11
The Federal Reserves response to the financial crisis (and the response of foreign
central banks as well) was to inject significant liquidity into the banking system
through so-called large scale asset purchases, or quantitative easing. The Federal
Reserves balance sheet expanded to approximately $3.5 trillion as it purchased large
amounts of mortgage-backed securities and treasury securities. After talking about the
need to normalize interest rates for over a year, in late 2015 the Federal Reserve began
the process of increasing interest rates by paying banks higher interest rates on excess
reserves in short, paying them not to lend. A 25 basis point increase in short-term
interest rates in late 2015 appears to have contributed to a further collapse in
commodity prices, widening high yield spreads, and a near 10% correction in the
equity market. We believe that when the Fed started quantitative easing, it entered
Hotel California. As the classic Eagles song concludes, you can check out any time
you like, but you can never leave.
It now appears with 20-20 hindsight that the excess liquidity provided by the Federal
Reserve contributed to a massive amount of dollar borrowing in emerging markets to
invest in commodity production to support debt-fueled industrial capacity in China.
According to one estimate, emerging markets account for approximately 45% of global
11
This discussion is a tribute to the late, great Eagles musician Glenn Frey, who passed away earlier this year at
the age of 67.
18
There is a significant risk that if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in
response to what appears to be a steadily improving U.S. employment market, the U.S.
dollar will continue to strengthen, exacerbating economic challenges elsewhere in the
world. We hope they decide to take it easy.
Energy markets likely to remain challenging
Because we have two private investments in the energy industry, we spend a lot of time
thinking about the outlook for the energy complex. Fundamentally we agree with one
of our advisors14 who says that when it comes to predicting oil prices, nobody knows
nuttin Nevertheless, heres how we see it at this point.
Unlike past oil price crashes, the current situation appears to have been the result of
excess supply rather than a collapse in demand. It is certainly possible of course that
policymakers could drive the world economy into a contraction, in which case there
will be a demand problem as well. But so far this does not appear to have happened.
The success of U.S. shale producers and geopolitical factors have resulted in the global
oil complex producing roughly 1.6 million barrels per day of excess supply, or about
2% of demand. Demand continues to grow despite global economic growth of 3% or
less, and was up 1.8 million barrels per day in 2015 according to the IEA. As a result of
these supply and demand trends, OECD inventories are about 10% above their longterm averages. This is the first time in recent history that oil prices have dropped and
there has not been a supply response from OPEC. In early 2016, oil prices were below
$30 a barrel, which is approaching the average cash cost of non-OPEC producers.
In 2016, analysts at Bernstein Research project global demand growth at about
1.5 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC supply is projected to fall by 0.7 mm
barrels per day. Although OPEC continues to produce full out there is little spare
capacity in OPEC and financial strains on major OPEC producers are evident. Because
this is a long-cycle business, a recovery in oil prices is unlikely to be quick.
Geopolitical aspects of oil supply add to the uncertainty. Daniel Yergin has succinctly
described the situation as a battle for market share representing a geopolitical
struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran. He goes on to note that in 1974, Iran supplied
10% of the worlds oil production and Saudi Arabia supplied 14%. In 2015 Iran
supplied 3%, while Saudi Arabia supplied 11%. With a fiscal deficit of ~20% of its
GDP, Saudi Arabia is paying a high price for maintaining market share.
14
Because all non-OPEC producers are losing money at this point, capital investment is
plummeting. According to Wood MacKensie Ltd., $380 billion of investment in 68
major upstream projects have been delayed since the oil price crash. These projects had
an average breakeven price of $62/barrel and account in the aggregate for 27 billion of
reserves. OPEC itself expects non-OPEC supply to decline by 660,000 barrels in 2016,
but Iran of course is coming back to market post-sanctions.
Although the timing is difficult, if not impossible to predict, we continue to believe that
oil prices will be significantly higher in 2-3 years. Our investment in Stranded Oil
Resources Corporation gives us a call option on higher oil prices in the future.
Alleghanys investment strategy
Because we have to maintain a large fixed income portfolio that is, for the most part,
funded by (re)insurance reserves, we believe that our business model is inherently
well-positioned to maintain value in a deflationary environment. The average quality of
our fixed income portfolio at the end of 2015 was AA-, and the duration of the
portfolio was 4.6 years.
If we had a high level of conviction that deflation was going to dominate the global
economic outlook, we would probably eliminate most of our equity exposure and, to
the extent allowed, extend the duration of our bond portfolio by adding long-term
government bonds. Unfortunately, things arent that simple. A move to a highly
defensive posture would cost us income in the short-term and would only pay-off if
there is a massive reset that would present us with the opportunity to redeploy funds
at more attractive returns.
There are likely to be policy responses to deflationary pressures, and although investors
worry that central banks are out of ammo, they are not (yet) completely powerless.
Moreover, for industries and companies that are able to grow and maintain
profitability, the present value of their future cash flows increases significantly in a low
interest rate environment. The problem, of course, is that the universe of companies
with these characteristics is not a large number.
We do believe that the world is moving toward investment markets that will be
characterized by very low real and nominal returns on both fixed income and equity
securities due to a combination of high valuations and slow economic growth. Our goal
is to maintain a balanced position that will lock-in as much income as possible, while
intelligently re-deploying capital into businesses (or share repurchases) that will add to
economic value for Alleghany stockholders.
21
15
expertise with new media savvy, launching the highly innovative JazWings
platform, an online brand incubator, and the TubeHeroes product line, a line of
toys based on YouTube celebrities, in 2015. We acquired our interest for
approximately $60.3 million (excluding transaction fees) and have received
$13.4 million in cash distributions (including tax distributions) since our initial
investment. In 2015, Jazwares produced EBITDA of $35.8 million (vs.
approximately $41.3 million in 2014) with the growth in new brands such as
Peppa Pig and TubeHeroes offset by some mature brands natural decline and
start-up spending on the new JazWings platform. Our share of 2015 EBITDA
was $10.7 million.
Stranded Oil Resources Corporation was formed in 2011 to acquire legacy oil
fields and apply innovative enhanced oil recovery techniques. After completing
construction of its underground facility in 2014, Stranded Oil commenced its
drilling program in 2015. The drilling program, however, was delayed by
third-party equipment problems that have since been corrected as well as a
longer than expected trial-and-error process determining the optimum well
completion technique for the reservoir. After the delays encountered in 2015, we
expect production to commence in 2016. We have an economic interest of
approximately 80% of Stranded Oil and have invested approximately $245.2
million in the company as of the end of 2015, including the January 2015
purchase of the Teapot Dome Oilfield from the U.S. Department of Energy for
$45.2 million and purchase of conventional oil and gas acreage in Louisiana. In
2015, Stranded Oil had negative EBITDA of $19.7 million as a result of
(i) delays in the Fredonia drilling program and (ii) the significant decline in oil
prices which overwhelmed production increases and the pace of cost cutting at
Stranded Oils conventional oil fields.
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24
Yours sincerely,
Weston M. Hicks
President
25
Total
Segments
2014
Consolidated
Corporate
Activities
Total
Segments
Consolidated
($ in millions)
Revenues (expenses) for Corporate Activities:
EBITDA for Bourn & Koch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $
EBITDA for Kentucky Trailer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Alleghanys share of EBITDA for its investment in Jazwares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
EBITDA for IPS (commencing October 31, 2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
EBITDA for SORC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
EBITDA for SORC, Bourn & Koch, Kentucky Trailer, IPS and Alleghanys
investment in Jazwares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Add: depreciation expense for SORC, Bourn & Koch, Kentucky Trailer and
IPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Add: amortization of intangible assets for SORC, Bourn & Koch, Kentucky
Trailer and IPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Add: interest expense for SORC, Bourn & Koch, Kentucky Trailer and IPS . . .
Add: acquisition accounting impacts for SORC, Bourn & Koch, Kentucky
Trailer and IPS(1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Add: earnings before taxes attributable to noncontrolling interest for Bourn &
Koch, Kentucky Trailer and IPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Deduct: adjustments to equity in earnings of Jazwares(2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Subtotal, earnings before incomes taxes of SORC, Bourn & Koch,
Kentucky Trailer, IPS and equity in Jazwares earnings . . . . . . . . . . . .
Add: interest expense for all other entities within corporate activities . . . . . . . .
Add: corporate administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Add: other income (losses)(3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Subtotal, earnings before incomes taxes of corporate activities . . . . . . . . . . .
Revenues (expenses) for Reinsurance and Insurance Segments:
Net premiums earned . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Net investment income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Net realized capital gains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other than temporary impairment losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Net loss and loss adjustment expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Commissions, brokerage and other underwriting expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other operating expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Corporate administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Amortization of intangible assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Interest expense . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Subtotal, earnings before incomes taxes of total segments . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Earnings before income taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $
(1)
(2)
(3)
5.9
12.3
10.7
1.3
(19.7)
6.4
8.3
9.0
(15.2)
10.5
8.5
(12.4)
(6.6)
(3.1)
(1.5)
(0.3)
(0.8)
(0.1)
(3.5)
1.9
(0.8)
2.7
(5.8)
(5.5)
(52.0)
(45.6)
(43.0)
(5.8)
(42.4)
(45.8)
12.2
(146.1)
-
$ (146.1)
$ 4,230.3
427.6
242.6
(125.5)
6.5
(2,339.8)
(1,423.9)
(80.4)
(0.9)
5.3
(38.3)
(146.1)
(81.8)
-
903.5
$
903.5
903.5
$
757.4
(81.8)
(81.8)
$ 4,410.6
448.9
230.0
(36.3)
4.0
(2,494.5)
(1,421.3)
(85.7)
(1.3)
6.1
(46.8)
1,013.7
$ 1,013.7
1,013.7
$
931.9
Reflects the increase in the cost of goods sold arising from the valuation of inventory at fair value as of the acquisition date.
Reflects the removal of Alleghanys portion of Jazwares Adjusted EBITDA prior to Alleghanys investment on July 31, 2014 (applicable for 2014), and
adjustments for depreciation, amortization and interest expense.
Includes other revenues less other operating expenses, amortization of intangible assets and interest expense associated with Alleghany Properties and
Alleghany Capital Corporations other private capital investments and subsidiaries, among others, and investment activity for Alleghany Corporation.
26