Fox Business News Poll Wisconsin 3-31-16

All results are for release after 7:00 PM/ET Thursday, March 31, 2016.
WISCONSIN
This Fox Business Network Poll was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins
Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).
The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers March 28-30, 2016 among a random
state sample of 1,602 Wisconsin likely primary voters. Respondents were screened to identify
likely primary voters.
Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Results for the 860 likely Democratic primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3
percentage points and results for the 742 likely Republican primary voters have a margin of error
of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Landline (885) and cellphone (717) numbers were randomly selected from a statewide voter file
of registered Wisconsin voters using a probability proportionate to size method. This simply
means phone numbers are proportionally representative to the number of voters in all regions
across the state of Wisconsin. Fieldwork conducted by Braun Research, Inc. of Princeton, NJ.
An asterisk (*) is used for percentages of less than one-half percent.

A dash (-) represents a value of zero.
Some results may not add to 100% due to rounding.
1.
First, have you already voted in the presidential primary, either by early voting or by
sending in an absentee ballot? IF YES: Did you vote in the Democratic primary or the
Republican primary?
Yes, already voted Yes, already voted
(Dont know/
Democratic
Republican
Refused)
No
28-30 Mar 2016
5%
3
92
-
2.
How likely is it that you will vote in the Wisconsin presidential primary next Tuesday-will you definitely vote in the primary, probably vote in the primary, probably not vote,
or definitely not vote? [IF DEFINITELY OR PROBABLY] Will you vote in the
Democratic or the Republican primary?
----- Democratic --------- Republican ----Definitely
Probably
Definitely
Probably
(Not sure)
28-30 Mar 2016
79%
21
82%
18
-
[Q3-6 IF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN Q1 AND Q2, N=742]

3.
[IF ALREADY VOTED] Who did you vote for in the Republican primary? [IF
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN Q2] If the Republican presidential primary were held
today, which one of the following candidates would you support? [IF NOT SURE,
ASK: Well, if you had to decide today, which one would you choose?]
[RANDOMIZE LIST]
28-30 Mar 2016
N=742
Ted Cruz
42%
Donald Trump
32
John Kasich
19
(Other)
1
(None of the above)
1
(Dont know
5
[SKIP IF ALREADY VOTED IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY & CODE AS CERTAIN]
4.
Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and
support someone else? [If dont know: re-read question and probe for answer]
28-30 Mar 2016
GOP primary voters
Trump supporters
Cruz supporters
Kasich supporters
Certain
74%
84%
81%
60%
May change
22
15
18
40
(Dont know)
4
1
1
1
[IF DONT KNOW IN Q3, SKIP AND CODE AS DONT KNOW]

5.
And which Republican would be your second choice? [IF NOT SURE, ASK: Well, if
you had to decide today, which one would you choose?]
[ONLY READ LIST IF REQUESTED. READ IN SAME ORDER AS Q3. DO NOT
ACCEPT CHOICE FROM Q3.]
Second
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
First
choice
choice
supporters
supporters
supporters
Ted Cruz
42%
20%
35%
N/A
47%
Donald Trump
32
14
N/A
23%
20
John Kasich
19
35
34
57
N/A
2
(Other)
1
2
2
14
30
(None of the above)
1
20
26
4
3
(Dont know
5
9
3
6.
If Scott Walker were still in the race for the Republican nomination, who would you
support? [READ AND ROTATE]
28-30 Mar 2016
Scott Walker
44%
Donald Trump
21
Ted Cruz
17
John Kasich
12
(Other)
*
(None of the above)
1
(Dont know
5
[Q7-8 IF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IN Q1 OR Q2, N=860]

7.
[IF ALREADY VOTED] Who did you vote for in the Democratic primary? [IF
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IN Q2] If the Democratic presidential primary were held
today, which one of the following candidates would you support? [IF NOT SURE,
ASK: Well, if you had to decide today, which one would you choose?] [ROTATE]
28-30 Mar 2016
Bernie Sanders
48%
Hillary Clinton
43
(Other)
1
(None of the above)
4
(Dont know)
5
[SKIP IF ALREADY VOTED IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY & CODE AS CERTAIN]
8.
Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and
support someone else?] [If dont know: re-read question and probe for answer]
28-30 Mar 2016
Dem primary voters
Clinton supporters
Sanders supporters
Certain
80%
83%
86%
May change
15
16
13
(Dont know)
6
1
1
[RESUME ALL]
9.
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates
were: [IF DONT KNOW] Well, which way do you lean? [ROTATE NAMES]
28-30 Mar 16
Dem primary voters
GOP primary voters
10.
Democrat
Hillary
Clinton
49%
84%
9%
Republican
Donald
Trump
35
6
69
(Other)
6
5
7
(Wouldnt vote) (Dont know)

7
3
4
2
11
5
If Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are the two major party presidential candidates in
November, would you:
28-30 Mar 16
Dem primary voters
GOP primary voters
Be satisfied with
voting for one or
the other,
64%
72%
55%
Seriously consider Or just not cast

voting for a third
a vote for
party candidate, president at all? (Dont know)
26
7
3
20
5
3
34
8
3
Fox Business Network Poll -- Margin of Error for Subgroups

The Fox Business Network Poll was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins
Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).
The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers March 28-30, 2016 among a random
state sample of 1,602 Wisconsin likely primary voters. Respondents were screened to identify
likely primary voters. Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5
percentage points. Results for the 860 likely Democratic primary voters have a margin of error
of plus or minus three percentage points and results for the 742 likely Republican primary voters
have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Results among the attached subgroups have larger sampling errors:
Wisconsin Likely Primary Voters
+/- 2.5%
Overall Sample:
--+/- 3.5%
Democrats:
+/- 4%
Republicans:
+/- 6%
Independents:
--+/- 3.5%
Men:
+/- 3%
Women:
--+/- 2.5%
White:
+/- 8%
Non-White:
--+/- 3.5%
College Degree:
+/- 3.5%
No College Degree:
--+/- 6%
Under Age 35:
+/- 4%
Age 35-54:
+/- 3%
Age 55+:
+/- 4.5%
Age 65+:
--+/- 4%
Income Under $50k:
+/- 3%
Income $50k+:
--+/- 3.5%
Liberal:
+/- 5.5%
Very Conservative:
--+/- 3%
Dem Primary Voters:
+/- 3.5%
GOP Primary Voters:
WI Republican
Primary Voters +/- 3.5%
--Men:
Women:
--White Men:
White Women:
--College Degree:
No College Degree:
--Under Age 45:
Age 45+:
--Income Under $50k:
Income $50k+:
--White Evangelical:
--Very Conservative:
--Republican:
+/- 4.5%
+/- 5%
+/- 5%
+/- 5.5%
+/- 5%
+/- 5%
+/- 7%
+/- 4%
+/- 7%
+/- 4.5%
+/- 5.5%
+/- 6%
+/- 4%
WI Democratic
Primary Voters +/- 3%
--Men:
Women:
--White:
Non-White:
--College Degree:
No College Degree:
--Under Age 45:
Age 45+:
--Income Under $50k:
Income $50k+:
--Liberal:
--Democrat:
---
+/- 5%
+/- 4%
+/- 3.5%
+/- 9%
+/- 4.5%
+/- 4.5%
+/- 6%
+/- 4%
+/- 5%
+/- 4.5%
+/- 4%
+/- 3.5%
[ALL PRIMARY VOTERS]

1. First, have you already voted in the presidential primary, either by early voting or by sending in an
absentee ballot?
Yes, already voted Democratic

Yes, already voted Republican
No
(Don't know/Refused)
Total
5%
3%
92%
-
Yes, already voted Democratic

Yes, already voted Republican
No
(Don't know/Refused)
Total
5%
3%
92%
-
Dem
10%
*%
90%
-
Rep
7%
93%
-
Under
Age 35
5%
2%
93%
-
Ind
5%
4%
91%
-
35-54
4%
3%
93%
-
Men
3%
4%
93%
-
55+
6%
4%
90%
-
Women
6%
3%
91%
-
65+
8%
6%
86%
-
White
5%
4%
91%
-
NonWhite
5%
1%
94%
-
Under
$50k
8%
2%
90%
-
College
Degree
5%
4%
91%
-
$50k+
3%
4%
93%
-
Lib
9%
1%
91%
-
No
Degree
5%
3%
92%
Very
Cons
*%
4%
95%
-

2. How likely is it that you will vote in the Wisconsin presidential primary next Tuesday -- will you definitely
vote in the primary, probably vote in the primary, probably not vote, or definitely not vote?
Definitely vote in Democratic

primary
Probably vote in Democratic primary
Definitely vote in Republican
primary
Probably vote in Republican primary
Probably not vote in primary
Definitely not vote in primary
(Not sure)
Definitely vote in Democratic

primary
Probably vote in Democratic primary
Definitely vote in Republican
primary
Probably vote in Republican primary
Probably not vote in primary
Definitely not vote in primary
(Not sure)
Total
42%
Dem
77%
Rep
4%
Ind
39%
Men
34%
Women
50%
White
40%
NonWhite
61%
College
Degree
46%
No
Degree
39%
11%
39%
19%
2%
2%
78%
11%
40%
10%
45%
12%
32%
10%
40%
20%
18%
9%
37%
13%
40%
8%
-
1%
-
15%
-
10%
-
11%
-
6%
-
9%
-
2%
-
8%
-
9%
-
Total
42%
Under
Age 35
43%
35-54
40%
55+
44%
65+
43%
Under
$50k
46%
$50k+
41%
Lib
76%
Very
Cons
9%
11%
39%
15%
31%
11%
40%
9%
41%
9%
42%
17%
28%
8%
43%
15%
6%
3%
77%
8%
-
12%
-
9%
-
6%
-
6%
-
8%
-
8%
-
3%
-
10%
-
[REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS]

3. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, which one of the following candidates would you
support?
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
Total
42%
19%
32%
1%
1%
5%
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
Total
42%
19%
32%
1%
1%
5%
Men
40%
17%
35%
1%
1%
6%
Women
46%
21%
27%
*%
1%
5%
Under
Age 45
43%
21%
29%
1%
1%
4%
White
Men
40%
17%
36%
1%
1%
5%
45+
42%
17%
33%
*%
1%
6%
White
Women
46%
21%
28%
*%
1%
5%
Under
$50k
40%
23%
31%
1%
1%
3%
College
Degree
42%
23%
30%
*%
1%
4%
$50k+
45%
17%
32%
1%
1%
5%
No
Degree
44%
14%
34%
1%
1%
7%
White
Evangel
49%
16%
28%
1%
6%
Very
Cons
61%
9%
25%
1%
4%
Rep
48%
16%
31%
1%
*%
5%

4. Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else?
Certain
May change
(Don't know)
Total
74%
22%
4%
Certain
May change
(Don't know)
Total
74%
22%
4%
Men
74%
22%
3%
Women
74%
21%
4%
Under
Age 45
70%
27%
3%
White
Men
75%
22%
3%
45+
77%
19%
4%
White
Women
74%
22%
4%
Under
$50k
70%
26%
4%
College
Degree
78%
19%
3%
$50k+
76%
21%
3%
No
Degree
71%
25%
4%
White
Evangel
73%
22%
5%
Very
Cons
81%
16%
3%
Rep
76%
21%
3%
Very
Cons
16%
43%
16%
2%
14%
8%
Rep
21%
37%
14%
2%
16%
9%

5. And which Republican would be your second choice?
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
Total
20%
35%
14%
2%
20%
9%
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
Total
20%
35%
14%
2%
20%
9%
Men
20%
32%
16%
2%
20%
9%
Women
21%
39%
10%
1%
20%
9%
Under
Age 45
23%
34%
18%
1%
18%
6%
White
Men
21%
32%
16%
2%
20%
9%
45+
19%
36%
11%
2%
21%
11%
White
Women
20%
40%
10%
1%
20%
9%
Under
$50k
28%
27%
13%
2%
21%
9%
College
Degree
20%
36%
13%
1%
23%
7%
$50k+
19%
37%
16%
1%
19%
8%
No
Degree
21%
35%
14%
2%
17%
12%
White
Evangel
19%
42%
14%
*%
15%
10%

6. If Scott Walker were still in the race for the Republican nomination, who would you support?
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
Total
17%
12%
21%
44%
*%
1%
5%
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
Total
17%
12%
21%
44%
*%
1%
5%
Men
19%
11%
25%
41%
1%
4%
Women
15%
13%
16%
49%
*%
1%
5%
Under
Age 45
18%
13%
20%
45%
1%
3%
White
Men
18%
11%
25%
41%
*%
5%
45+
16%
11%
22%
44%
*%
1%
6%
White
Women
15%
13%
16%
49%
*%
1%
5%
Under
$50k
17%
11%
19%
48%
*%
*%
4%
College
Degree
18%
17%
20%
41%
1%
4%
$50k+
18%
11%
23%
43%
1%
4%
No
Degree
17%
7%
22%
48%
*%
*%
5%
White
Evangel
18%
10%
17%
51%
*%
4%
Very
Cons
21%
3%
14%
58%
1%
3%
Rep
18%
8%
19%
49%
*%
1%
5%
[DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS]

7. If the Democratic presidential primary were held today, which one of the following candidates would you
support?
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
Total
43%
48%
1%
4%
5%
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
Total
43%
48%
1%
4%
5%
Men
36%
55%
1%
5%
4%
Women
47%
44%
1%
3%
6%
Under
Age 45
22%
69%
2%
3%
4%
White
41%
50%
1%
4%
4%
45+
53%
38%
*%
4%
5%
NonWhite
51%
36%
1%
1%
11%
Under
$50k
45%
48%
1%
3%
3%
College
Degree
40%
50%
1%
4%
5%
$50k+
39%
51%
1%
4%
5%
No
Degree
45%
47%
1%
3%
5%
Lib
42%
53%
*%
1%
4%
Dem
47%
48%
*%
1%
4%

8. Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else?
Certain
May change
(Don't know)
Total
80%
15%
6%
Certain
May change
(Don't know)
Total
80%
15%
6%
Men
82%
13%
6%
Women
78%
17%
6%
Under
Age 45
79%
16%
6%
White
80%
15%
5%
45+
80%
15%
5%
NonWhite
74%
17%
9%
Under
$50k
80%
15%
5%
College
Degree
78%
17%
6%
$50k+
80%
15%
5%
No
Degree
81%
13%
5%
Lib
83%
14%
3%
Dem
81%
14%
4%

9. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were:
Democrat Hillary Clinton

Republican Donald Trump
(Other)
(Wouldn't vote)
(Don't know)
Total
49%
35%
6%
7%
3%

(Other)
(Wouldn't vote)
(Don't know)
Total
49%
35%
6%
7%
3%
Dem
90%
3%
4%
3%
1%
Rep
7%
71%
7%
12%
4%
Under
Age 35
50%
30%
8%
9%
3%
Ind
40%
38%
8%
10%
4%
35-54
47%
38%
6%
6%
3%
Men
39%
44%
7%
7%
3%
Women
59%
26%
4%
8%
3%
55+
50%
34%
4%
8%
3%
White
46%
37%
6%
8%
3%
65+
51%
33%
3%
10%
3%
NonWhite
79%
13%
3%
3%
2%
Under
$50k
57%
28%
4%
8%
3%
College
Degree
52%
30%
7%
8%
3%
$50k+
45%
39%
7%
6%
3%
Lib
85%
6%
4%
4%
1%
No
Degree
46%
39%
4%
7%
3%
Very
Cons
9%
70%
6%
11%
5%


(Other)
(Wouldn't vote)
(Don't know)
Total
9%
69%
7%
11%
5%

(Other)
(Wouldn't vote)
(Don't know)
Total
9%
69%
7%
11%
5%
Men
7%
74%
8%
8%
4%
Women
11%
62%
6%
15%
6%
Under
Age 45
11%
67%
11%
8%
3%
White
Men
7%
74%
7%
8%
4%
45+
7%
70%
5%
12%
5%
White
Women
11%
62%
6%
15%
6%
Under
$50k
9%
70%
6%
11%
5%
College
Degree
11%
62%
9%
12%
5%
$50k+
9%
70%
7%
10%
5%
No
Degree
6%
76%
4%
10%
4%
White
Evangel
7%
67%
6%
13%
6%
Very
Cons
2%
76%
6%
11%
5%


(Other)
(Wouldn't vote)
(Don't know)
Total
84%
6%
5%
4%
2%

(Other)
(Wouldn't vote)
(Don't know)
Total
84%
6%
5%
4%
2%
Men
78%
7%
6%
6%
3%
Women
88%
4%
3%
4%
1%
Under
Age 45
81%
3%
7%
7%
2%
White
82%
6%
5%
5%
2%
45+
86%
7%
3%
3%
1%
NonWhite
94%
2%
2%
1%
2%
Under
$50k
83%
6%
3%
6%
2%
College
Degree
85%
5%
4%
4%
2%
$50k+
83%
6%
6%
3%
2%
No
Degree
82%
7%
5%
5%
2%
Lib
90%
2%
4%
3%
1%
Dem
91%
2%
4%
3%
1%
Rep
6%
72%
7%
11%
4%

10. If Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are the two major party presidential candidates in November, would you:
Be satisfied with voting for one or

the other,
Seriously consider voting for a
third party candidate,
Or just not cast a vote for
president at all
(Don't know)

the other,
president at all
(Don't know)
Total
64%
Dem
77%
Rep
54%
Ind
54%
Men
63%
Women
65%
White
63%
NonWhite
76%
College
Degree
63%
No
Degree
65%
26%
17%
34%
34%
28%
25%
27%
17%
29%
24%
7%
4%
9%
7%
6%
7%
7%
5%
6%
7%
3%
2%
3%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
4%
Total
64%
Under
Age 35
55%
35-54
64%
55+
69%
65+
68%
Under
$50k
66%
$50k+
63%
Lib
76%
Very
Cons
58%
26%
37%
28%
21%
21%
24%
28%
18%
30%
7%
6%
6%
7%
6%
7%
6%
4%
9%
3%
2%
2%
4%
5%
3%
2%
2%
3%


the other,
president at all
(Don't know)

the other,
president at all
(Don't know)
Total
55%
Men
59%
Women
50%
White
Men
59%
White
Women
50%
College
Degree
50%
No
Degree
61%
34%
32%
36%
31%
37%
41%
27%
8%
7%
11%
7%
11%
8%
9%
3%
2%
3%
3%
3%
2%
3%
Total
55%
Under
Age 45
50%
45+
58%
Under
$50k
58%
$50k+
56%
White
Evangel
53%
Very
Cons
58%
Rep
55%
34%
42%
30%
30%
35%
33%
31%
33%
8%
7%
9%
10%
7%
11%
8%
9%
3%
1%
4%
3%
2%
3%
2%
3%


the other,
president at all
(Don't know)

the other,
president at all
(Don't know)
Total
Men
Women
White
NonWhite
College
Degree
No
Degree
72%
67%
75%
71%
79%
74%
69%
20%
23%
18%
21%
13%
19%
21%
5%
6%
4%
5%
3%
4%
5%
3%
4%
2%
3%
5%
2%
4%
Total
72%
Under
Age 45
60%
45+
78%
Under
$50k
70%
$50k+
72%
Lib
77%
Dem
77%
20%
31%
14%
22%
20%
17%
17%
5%
6%
4%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
3%
2%
2%

Fox Business News Poll Wisconsin 3-31-16

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Fox Business News Poll Wisconsin 3-31-16

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What are the main findings of the Fox Business Network poll?

What are the main findings of the Fox Business Network poll?

What are the current levels of support for the Republican candidates in Wisconsin?

What are the current levels of support for the Republican candidates in Wisconsin?

All results are for release after 7:00 PM/ET Thursday, March 31, 2016.

An asterisk (*) is used for percentages of less than one-half percent.

[Q3-6 IF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN Q1 AND Q2, N=742]

[IF DONT KNOW IN Q3, SKIP AND CODE AS DONT KNOW]

[Q7-8 IF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IN Q1 OR Q2, N=860]

(Wouldnt vote) (Dont know)

Seriously consider Or just not cast

Fox Business Network Poll -- Margin of Error for Subgroups

[ALL PRIMARY VOTERS]

Yes, already voted Democratic

Yes, already voted Democratic

[ALL PRIMARY VOTERS]

Definitely vote in Democratic

Definitely vote in Democratic

[REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS]

[REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS]

[REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS]

[REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS]

[DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS]

[DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS]

[ALL PRIMARY VOTERS]

Democrat Hillary Clinton

Democrat Hillary Clinton

[REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS]

Democrat Hillary Clinton

Democrat Hillary Clinton

[DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS]

Democrat Hillary Clinton

Democrat Hillary Clinton

[ALL PRIMARY VOTERS]

Be satisfied with voting for one or

Be satisfied with voting for one or

[REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS]

Be satisfied with voting for one or

Be satisfied with voting for one or

[DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS]

Be satisfied with voting for one or

Be satisfied with voting for one or

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