15/3/2016

IsaacAsimovAsks,HowDoPeopleGetNewIdeas?

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A View from Isaac Asimov

Isaac Asimov Asks, How Do People Get New

October 20, 2014

ote from Arthur Obermayer, friend of the author:

N
In1959,Iworkedasascientistat

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AlliedResearchAssociatesin
Boston.Thecompanywasan
MITspinothatoriginally

focusedontheeectsofnuclear
weaponsonaircraftstructures.
Thecompanyreceivedacontract
withtheacronymGLIPAR
(GuideLineIdentication
ProgramforAntimissile
Research)fromtheAdvanced
ResearchProjectsAgencytoelicitthemostcreativeapproachespossible
foraballisticmissiledefensesystem.Thegovernmentrecognizedthatno
matterhowmuchwasspentonimprovingandexpandingcurrent
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contractorstothinkoutofthebox.

WhenIrstbecameinvolvedintheproject,IsuggestedthatIsaac
Asimov,whowasagoodfriendofmine,wouldbeanappropriateperson
toparticipate.Heexpressedhiswillingnessandcametoafewmeetings.
Heeventuallydecidednottocontinue,becausehedidnotwanttohave
accesstoanysecretclassiedinformation;itwouldlimithisfreedomof
expression.Beforeheleft,however,hewrotethisessayoncreativityashis
singleformalinput.Thisessaywasneverpublishedorusedbeyondour
smallgroup.WhenIrecentlyrediscovereditwhilecleaningoutsomeold
les,Irecognizedthatitscontentsareasbroadlyrelevanttodayaswhen
hewroteit.Itdescribesnotonlythecreativeprocessandthenatureof
creativepeoplebutalsothekindofenvironmentthatpromotes
creativity.

ON CREATIVITY

Howdopeoplegetnewideas?

Presumably,theprocessofcreativity,whateveritis,isessentiallythe
sameinallitsbranchesandvarieties,sothattheevolutionofanewart
form,anewgadget,anewscienticprinciple,allinvolvecommon
factors.Wearemostinterestedinthecreationofanewscientic
principleoranewapplicationofanoldone,butwecanbegeneralhere.

Onewayofinvestigatingtheproblemistoconsiderthegreatideasof
thepastandseejusthowtheyweregenerated.Unfortunately,the
methodofgenerationisnevercleareventothegeneratorsthemselves.

Butwhatifthesameearthshakingideaoccurredtotwomen,
simultaneouslyandindependently?Perhaps,thecommonfactors

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involvedwouldbeilluminating.Considerthetheoryofevolutionby
naturalselection,independentlycreatedbyCharlesDarwinandAlfred
Wallace.

Thereisagreatdealincommonthere.Bothtraveledtofarplaces,
observingstrangespeciesofplantsandanimalsandthemannerin
whichtheyvariedfromplacetoplace.Bothwerekeenlyinterestedin
ndinganexplanationforthis,andbothfaileduntileachhappenedto
readMalthussEssayonPopulation.

Boththensawhowthenotionofoverpopulationandweedingout
(whichMalthushadappliedtohumanbeings)wouldtintothe
doctrineofevolutionbynaturalselection(ifappliedtospecies
generally).

Obviously,then,whatisneededisnotonlypeoplewithagood
backgroundinaparticulareld,butalsopeoplecapableofmakinga
connectionbetweenitem1anditem2whichmightnotordinarilyseem
connected.

Undoubtedlyinthersthalfofthe19thcentury,agreatmany
naturalistshadstudiedthemannerinwhichspeciesweredierentiated
amongthemselves.AgreatmanypeoplehadreadMalthus.Perhaps
somebothstudiedspeciesandreadMalthus.Butwhatyouneededwas
someonewhostudiedspecies,readMalthus,andhadtheabilitytomake
acrossconnection.

Thatisthecrucialpointthatistherarecharacteristicthatmustbe
found.Oncethecrossconnectionismade,itbecomesobvious.Thomas
H.HuxleyissupposedtohaveexclaimedafterreadingOntheOriginof
Species,Howstupidofmenottohavethoughtofthis.

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Butwhydidnthethinkofit?Thehistoryofhumanthoughtwould
makeitseemthatthereisdicultyinthinkingofanideaevenwhenall
thefactsareonthetable.Makingthecrossconnectionrequiresa
certaindaring.Itmust,foranycrossconnectionthatdoesnotrequire
daringisperformedatoncebymanyanddevelopsnotasanewidea,
butasamerecorollaryofanoldidea.

Itisonlyafterwardthatanewideaseemsreasonable.Tobeginwith,it
usuallyseemsunreasonable.Itseemstheheightofunreasontosuppose
theearthwasroundinsteadofat,orthatitmovedinsteadofthesun,
orthatobjectsrequiredaforcetostopthemwheninmotion,insteadof
aforcetokeepthemmoving,andsoon.

Apersonwillingtoyinthefaceofreason,authority,andcommon
sensemustbeapersonofconsiderableselfassurance.Sinceheoccurs
onlyrarely,hemustseemeccentric(inatleastthatrespect)totherestof
us.Apersoneccentricinonerespectisofteneccentricinothers.

Consequently,thepersonwhoismostlikelytogetnewideasisaperson
ofgoodbackgroundintheeldofinterestandonewhois
unconventionalinhishabits.(Tobeacrackpotisnot,however,enough
initself.)

Onceyouhavethepeopleyouwant,thenextquestionis:Doyouwantto
bringthemtogethersothattheymaydiscusstheproblemmutually,or
shouldyouinformeachoftheproblemandallowthemtoworkin
isolation?

Myfeelingisthatasfarascreativityisconcerned,isolationisrequired.
Thecreativepersonis,inanycase,continuallyworkingatit.Hismindis
shuinghisinformationatalltimes,evenwhenheisnotconsciousof

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it.(ThefamousexampleofKekuleworkingoutthestructureofbenzene
inhissleepiswellknown.)

Thepresenceofotherscanonlyinhibitthisprocess,sincecreationis
embarrassing.Foreverynewgoodideayouhave,thereareahundred,
tenthousandfoolishones,whichyounaturallydonotcaretodisplay.

Nevertheless,ameetingofsuchpeoplemaybedesirableforreasons
otherthantheactofcreationitself.

Notwopeopleexactlyduplicateeachothersmentalstoresofitems.One
personmayknowAandnotB,anothermayknowBandnotA,and
eitherknowingAandB,bothmaygettheideathoughnotnecessarily
atonceorevensoon.

Furthermore,theinformationmaynotonlybeofindividualitemsAand
B,butevenofcombinationssuchasAB,whichinthemselvesarenot
signicant.However,ifonepersonmentionstheunusualcombination
ofABandanothertheunusualcombinationAC,itmaywellbethat
thecombinationABC,whichneitherhasthoughtofseparately,may
yieldananswer.

Itseemstomethenthatthepurposeofcerebrationsessionsisnotto
thinkupnewideasbuttoeducatetheparticipantsinfactsandfact
combinations,intheoriesandvagrantthoughts.

Buthowtopersuadecreativepeopletodoso?Firstandforemost,there
mustbeease,relaxation,andageneralsenseofpermissiveness.The
worldingeneraldisapprovesofcreativity,andtobecreativeinpublicis
particularlybad.Eventospeculateinpublicisratherworrisome.The
individualsmust,therefore,havethefeelingthattheotherswontobject.

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Ifasingleindividualpresentisunsympathetictothefoolishnessthat
wouldbeboundtogoonatsuchasession,theotherswouldfreeze.The
unsympatheticindividualmaybeagoldmineofinformation,butthe
harmhedoeswillmorethancompensateforthat.Itseemsnecessaryto
me,then,thatallpeopleatasessionbewillingtosoundfoolishand
listentootherssoundfoolish.

Ifasingleindividualpresenthasamuchgreaterreputationthanthe
others,orismorearticulate,orhasadistinctlymorecommanding
personality,hemaywelltakeovertheconferenceandreducetherestto
littlemorethanpassiveobedience.Theindividualmayhimselfbe
extremelyuseful,buthemightaswellbeputtoworksolo,forheis
neutralizingtherest.

Theoptimumnumberofthegroupwouldprobablynotbeveryhigh.I
shouldguessthatnomorethanvewouldbewanted.Alargergroup
mighthavealargertotalsupplyofinformation,buttherewouldbethe
tensionofwaitingtospeak,whichcanbeveryfrustrating.Itwould
probablybebettertohaveanumberofsessionsatwhichthepeople
attendingwouldvary,ratherthanonesessionincludingthemall.(This
wouldinvolveacertainrepetition,butevenrepetitionisnotinitself
undesirable.Itisnotwhatpeoplesayattheseconferences,butwhat
theyinspireineachotherlateron.)

Forbestpurposes,thereshouldbeafeelingofinformality.Joviality,the
useofrstnames,joking,relaxedkiddingare,Ithink,oftheessence
notinthemselves,butbecausetheyencourageawillingnesstobe
involvedinthefollyofcreativeness.ForthispurposeIthinkameeting
insomeoneshomeoroveradinnertableatsomerestaurantisperhaps
moreusefulthanoneinaconferenceroom.

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Probablymoreinhibitingthananythingelseisafeelingofresponsibility.
Thegreatideasoftheageshavecomefrompeoplewhowerentpaidto
havegreatideas,butwerepaidtobeteachersorpatentclerksorpetty
ocials,orwerenotpaidatall.Thegreatideascameassideissues.

Tofeelguiltybecauseonehasnotearnedonessalarybecauseonehas
nothadagreatideaisthesurestway,itseemstome,ofmakingit
certainthatnogreatideawillcomeinthenexttimeeither.

Yetyourcompanyisconductingthiscerebrationprogramon
governmentmoney.Tothinkofcongressmenorthegeneralpublic
hearingaboutscientistsfoolingaround,boondoggling,tellingdirty
jokes,perhaps,atgovernmentexpense,istobreakintoacoldsweat.In
fact,theaveragescientisthasenoughpublicconsciencenottowantto
feelheisdoingthisevenifnoonendsout.

Iwouldsuggestthatmembersatacerebrationsessionbegivensinecure
taskstodoshortreportstowrite,orsummariesoftheirconclusions,or
briefanswerstosuggestedproblemsandbepaidforthat,thepayment
beingthefeethatwouldordinarilybepaidforthecerebrationsession.
Thecerebrationsessionwouldthenbeociallyunpaidforandthat,
too,wouldallowconsiderablerelaxation.

Idonotthinkthatcerebrationsessionscanbeleftunguided.There
mustbesomeoneinchargewhoplaysaroleequivalenttothatofa
psychoanalyst.Apsychoanalyst,asIunderstandit,byaskingtheright
questions(andexceptforthatinterferingaslittleaspossible),getsthe
patienthimselftodiscusshispastlifeinsuchawayastoelicitnew
understandingofitinhisowneyes.

Inthesameway,asessionarbiterwillhavetositthere,stirringupthe

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animals,askingtheshrewdquestion,makingthenecessarycomment,
bringingthemgentlybacktothepoint.Sincethearbiterwillnotknow
whichquestionisshrewd,whichcommentnecessary,andwhatthe
pointis,hiswillnotbeaneasyjob.

Asforgadgetsdesignedtoelicitcreativity,Ithinktheseshouldarise
outofthebullsessionsthemselves.Ifthoroughlyrelaxed,freeof
responsibility,discussingsomethingofinterest,andbeingbynature
unconventional,theparticipantsthemselveswillcreatedevicesto
stimulatediscussion.

PublishedwithpermissionofAsimovHoldings.

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Illustration by Sam D'Orazio

Isaac Asimov

Guest contributor

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The Danger of the Universal Basic Income

Giving everyone a basic income is the latest trendy idea sweeping Silicon Valley.

Its a terrible solution to a real problem.

by David Rotman

March 11, 2016

Free money! Whats not to like?

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Itsthelatestbigideaamongtech

elites,asthoseinSiliconValley
struggletocopewithgrowing
publicuneaseovertheeects

digitaltechnologieshavehadon
jobsandincomeinequality.
Dressedupasuniversalbasic
income,theideaistogive
everyoneinsomeversions,
everyadultaxedsumevery
month.Itsnotalotofmoney,but

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IsaacAsimovAsks,HowDoPeopleGetNewIdeas?
sotheargumentgoesitwould
helppeoplesurviveasjobsare
increasinglylosttorobots,
software,andautomation.

Iftherearenojobs,itwouldat
leastgivepeoplesomethingelse
todo,suggeststheNewYork
TimessFarhadManjoo:Wedall

befreetobecomeartists,
scholars,andentrepreneursor
otherwiseengageourpassions.

Agovernment
suppliedguaranteedbasic
incomeisnotanewidea.An
earlierincarnation,calledthe
negativeincometax,waspitched
bytheconservativeeconomist
MiltonFriedmanintheearly
1960sasawaytocurtailthe
growinggovernmentantipoverty
programsofthatera.Inthe1972presidentialcampaign,bothRichard
NixonandhisliberalDemocratchallenger,GeorgeMcGovern,
supportedsomeversionoftheidea.Andinrecenttimes,thebasic
incomehasregainedpopularityamongsomepolicymakers.Thisweek,
itwasreportedthatOntarioisconsideringapilotprojecttobeginnext
year.AndtherearecallsfortheU.K.tofollowsuit.

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IsaacAsimovAsks,HowDoPeopleGetNewIdeas?

Theseinitiativesmayormaynotmakesenseasanantipoverty
strategytoprovidepeoplewithaneconomicsafetynet.Andthatmight
beparticularlyimportantasdigitaltechnologiesandautomation
continuetodisplacemanyworkersfromwellpayingjobs.

Butamongmanytechelitesandtheirboosters,theideaofabasic
incomeseemstohavemorphedfromanantipovertystrategyintoa
radicalnewwayofseeingworkandleisure.Inthisview,theeconomyis
becomingincreasinglydominatedbymachinesandsoftware.That
leavesmanywithoutjobsand,notably,societywithnoneedfortheir
labor.Sowhynotsimplypaythesepeopleforsittingaround?Somehow,
inthethinkingofmanyinSiliconValley,thishasbecomeagoodthing.

EduardoPorter,alsowritingintheNewYorkTimes,doesanexcellent
jobofdebunkingthisutopianscenario.Still,thereissomethingdeeply
troublingaboutthewaymanyinSiliconValleyareembracingthis
vision.Writingoalargenumberofpeopleasnotrelevanttoourtech
centriceconomywouldbeanenormouswaste.Whatsmore,theincome
gapbetweenthetechelitesandothersisalreadyfartoolarge.Andits

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hardtoknowhowabasicincomewouldhelp.FarbetterforSilicon
Valleyleaderstousetheirtalentsandcreativitytodeploymore
immediateandeectivemethodsofclosingtheeconomicgaptheyhave
helpedcreate.

(Readmore:NewYorkTimes;WhoWillOwntheRobots?;
TechnologyandInequality)

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automation, jobs, Income inequality,

economics, digital economy

Credit

Photo by TaxCredits | Flickr

David Rotman

Editor

As the editor of MIT Technology Review, I spend much of my time thinking about the types of

stories and journalism that will be most valuable to our readers. What do curious, well-

informed readers need to know about emerging technologies? As a

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