Grant Williams Duck Test

Duck Test
Grant Williams
Things that make you go
www.ttmygh.com
US GDP vs Total Credit Instruments

1949 - 2014
Recession
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: St. Louis Fed
S&P500
2011 - 2016
2200
2100
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg
MSCI World Index

2011 - 2016
1850
H
S
1750
1650
1550
1450
1350
1250
1150
1050
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg
Germany Dax Index

2000 - 2016
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bloomberg
Central Bank Total Assets

Fed/BoJ/SNB/BoE/ECB/PBoC
2006 - 2016
6,000,000
QE3 Ends
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bloomberg
US Dollar Index
May 2009 - Jun 2014
90
85
80
75
70
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Bloomberg
Global Debt
Q4 2000 - Q4 2014
$40 Trillion
$57 Trillion
$33 Trillion
$56 Trillion
$38 Trillion
$19 Trillion
$26 Trillion
$58 Trillion
$33 Trillion
$22 Trillion
$20 Trillion
Q4 2000
$37 Trillion
Q4 2007
$45 Trillion
Q4 2014
Source: McKinsey: Debt and (not much) Deleveraging
Total Central Bank Assets

1995 vs 2015
2015
$21.0 trillion
1995
1995
$2.1 trillion
Source: David Stockman
S&P500
2500
1978 - 2016
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: Bloomberg
US Corporate Profits (with IVA & CCA YoY %)

1986 - 2015
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 2015t
Source: Bloomberg
US Dollar Index Post-QE3

Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
Oct 14
Dec 14
Feb 15
Apr 15
Jun 15
Aug 15
Oct 15
Dec 15
Feb 16
Source: Bloomberg
US Dollar Index
1976 - 2016
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
Source: Bloomberg
S&P500 Post-QE3
Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
2150
2100
2050
2000
1950
1900
1850
1800
Oct 14
Dec 14
Feb 15
Apr 15
Jun 15
Aug 15
Oct 15
Dec 15
Feb 16
S&P500 Price/Earnings Ratio

2006 - 2015
25
20
QE3 Ends
15
10
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg
MSCI World Index Post-QE3

Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
1815
1805
1795
1785
1775
1765
1755
1745
1735
1725
1715
1705
1695
1685
1675
1665
1655
1645
1635
1625
1615
1605
1595
1585
1575
1565
1555
1545
1535
1525
1515
1505
1495
1485
Oct 14
Dec 14
Feb 15
Apr 15
Jun 15
Aug 15
Oct 15
Dec 15
Feb 16
Source: Bloomberg
MSCI World Index

2011 - 2016
1850
QE3 Ends
1750
1650
1550
1450
1350
1250
1150
1050
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg
HYG Post-QE3
Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
93
91
89
87
85
83
81
79
77
75
Oct 14
Dec 14
Feb 15
Apr 15
Jun 15
Aug 15
Oct 15
Dec 15
Feb 16
Source: Bloomberg
LQD Post-QE3
Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
124
122
120
118
116
114
112
Oct 14
Dec 14
Feb 15
Apr 15
Jun 15
Aug 15
Oct 15
Dec 15
Feb 16
Source: Bloomberg
TLT Post-QE3
Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
140
135
130
125
120
115
Oct 14
Dec 14
Feb 15
Apr 15
Jun 15
Aug 15
Oct 15
Dec 15
Feb 16
Source: Bloomberg
German 10-Year Bund Yield

1989 - 2016
10
0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Source: Bloomberg
Japan 10-Year Bund Yield

1989 - 2016
10
0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Source: Bloomberg
US Manufacturing ISM
80
1948 - 2016
70
60
50
40
30
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Source: Bloomberg
US PCE YoY
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1960
1960 - 2016
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Source: Bloomberg
US Industrial Production YoY

25
1944 - 2016
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Source: Bloomberg
US Total Exports ($mln)

150000
145000
140000
135000
130000
125000
120000
115000
110000
105000
100000
95000
90000
85000
80000
75000
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
1993
1993 - 2015
?????
2008
Recession
2001
Recession
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Source: Bloomberg
US Durable Goods New Orders (YoY)

1992 - 2015
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30
-40
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Source: Bloomberg
Total Global Exports (YoY)

35
1998 - 2015
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bloomberg
Global PMI
60
1998 - 2015
50
40
30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bloomberg
China Manufacturing PMI

2005 - 2015
60
50
40
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg
China Non-Manufacturing PMI

2007 - 2015
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg
Korea Exports YoY

1967 - 2015
150
120
90
60
30
-30
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Source: Bloomberg
Taiwan Exports YoY

1982 - 2015
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Source: Bloomberg
Nikkei 225 Index

Jan 29 2016
17650
REACTION
RECOVERY
17150
16650
11:30am
-4.94%
[0:33:30]
12:00pm
12:30pm
1:00pm
1:30pm
2:00pm
Source: Bloomberg
5,000,000
% of Global GDP under the auspices of

a Central Bank with Negative Rates
4,000,000
ECB
Denmark
Sweden
Switzerland
Japan
3,000,000
25.0%
22.5%
2,000,000
20.0%
17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
1,000,000
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
1995 1996 1997 1996 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2012
2013
2014
0.0%
2015
Source: FactSet/Oxford Economics/WSJ/Bloomberg
Smoothed US Recession Probabilities

1967 - 2015
99.38%
100
99.48%
99.14%
94.50%
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Bloomberg
UST 2s/10s Spread vs Fed Funds

1986 - 2015
3.0
10
2.5
8
2.0
6
1.5
1.0
0.5
2
0.0
-0.5
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
0
2016
Source: Bloomberg
Global CPI (YoY %)

1997 - 2015
1997
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bloomberg
Benchmark Interest Rates

2000 - 2016
ECB
Denmark
Japan
Switzerland
Sweden
-1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bloomberg
CPI (YoY%)
1997 - 2016
-1
EU
Switzerland
Japan
Sweden
Denmark
-2
-3
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Source: Bloomberg

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Duck Test

Things that make you go

US GDP vs Total Credit Instruments

MSCI World Index

Germany Dax Index

Central Bank Total Assets

Total Central Bank Assets

US Corporate Profits (with IVA & CCA YoY %)

US Dollar Index Post-QE3

S&P500 Price/Earnings Ratio

MSCI World Index Post-QE3

MSCI World Index

German 10-Year Bund Yield

Japan 10-Year Bund Yield

US Industrial Production YoY

US Total Exports ($mln)

US Durable Goods New Orders (YoY)

Total Global Exports (YoY)

China Manufacturing PMI

China Non-Manufacturing PMI

Korea Exports YoY

Taiwan Exports YoY

Nikkei 225 Index

% of Global GDP under the auspices of

Smoothed US Recession Probabilities

UST 2s/10s Spread vs Fed Funds

Global CPI (YoY %)

Benchmark Interest Rates

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