Survey of US Voters

Caddell & Associates

March 10, 2016

Methodology

Online survey of registered U.S. voters

Survey was conducted February 23 March 3, 2016

Completed 1,950 interviews

Oversamples were collected among the following groups:

n=642; MoE 3.87 White men with less than a 4 year college degree.

n=257; MoE 6.11 White men with less than a 4 year college degree who are less
likely to vote.

n=277; MoE 5.89 White women with less than a 4 year college degree who are less
likely to vote.

n=337; MoE 5.34 Persons age 18-34 years old (Millennials) who are less likely to
vote.

Sample was weighted to a nationally representative sample of 1,200n MoE 2.83%

Please note that due to rounding, some
percentages may not add up to exactly 100%.
U.S Voter Survey| 2

TPP Initial Vote

Don't know
enough
51%

Support
15%
Somewhat 12%
Strongly 3%
Support

Oppose
22%
Somewhat 13%

Undecided
11%

Strongly 9%
Oppose

Do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal?

Not sure

Don't know enough

U.S Voter Survey| 3

TPP Information
The Trans-Pacific Partnership, also known as the TPP, is a trade agreement involving the
United States, Canada, Japan, Mexico, Australia, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand,
Chile, Singapore, and Brunei. The agreement was designed to deepen economic ties
between the 12 member nations by removing tariffs and standardizing regulations in
order to make it easier for the countries to trade with each other. Congress has to vote to
approve the agreement without amendment.
Supporters of the TPP say the agreement will help the American economy and create
jobs by leveling the playing field for American medium and small businesses on the
global stage. Supporters also say the agreement will increase labor standards and
environmental protections in member nations which will lead to improved wages,
economic growth, and access to other markets.
Opponents of the TPP say that the agreement will strip the United States of valuable jobs
and manufacturing capabilities and it will open the door for more foreign workers to
enter the American job market without any restraints. The TPP will benefit entrenched
global corporations but hurt working Americans, small businesses and startups. It will
also subject us to laws and regulations written by an international panel. This is a direct
threat to our self-government and to American sovereignty.
U.S Voter Survey| 4

TPP Informed Vote

Initial Vote

Informed Vote
Don't
know
enough
51%

Oppose
45%
Support
32%

Support
15%
Somewhat
12%

Strongly
3%
Support

Oppose
22%
Somewhat
13%

Undecided
11%

Not sure

Undecided
23%

Somewhat
27%

Strongly
9%
Oppose

Somewhat
28%

Don't know enough

Strongly
5%
Support

Now that youve heard more, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade
deal?

Strongly
17%
Oppose

Not sure

U.S Voter Survey| 5

TPP Informed Vote by Party

Support
Overall

(Don't know)

32%

Decided vote

23%

45%

42%

Democrat (32%)

58%

39%

Independent (41%)

29%

Republican (27%)

28%

Oppose

23%

37%

27%

17%

Now that youve heard more, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal?

44%

54%
U.S Voter Survey| 6

TPP Informed Vote by Key Demographics

Support
Overall

32%

Decided vote
White/Non-College/Men (16%)
White/Non-College/Less Likely
Voter/Men (4%)
White/Non-College/Less Likely
Voter/Women (6%)
Millennials/Less Likely Voter
(12%)

(Don't know)
23%

45%

42%
24%
27%
19%

58%
21%

54%
32%

41%

36%
33%

Oppose

45%
34%

Now that youve heard more, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal?

33%
U.S Voter Survey| 7

TPP After Arguments Vote by Party

Support
Overall

22%

Decided vote

29%

Democrat (32%)

30%

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

Oppose

25%

53%

71%

27%

19%

15%

(Don't know)

44%

29%

18%

Now that youve heard more, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal?

52%

66%
U.S Voter Survey| 8

TPP After Arguments Vote by Key Demographics

Support
Overall

22%

Decided vote
White/Non-College/Men (16%)
White/Non-College/Less Likely
Voter/Men (4%)
White/Non-College/Less Likely
Voter/Women (6%)
Millennials/Less Likely Voter
(12%)

(Don't know)
25%

53%

29%
15%

71%
22%

17%
10%

63%
36%

47%

34%
24%

Oppose

56%
39%

Now that youve heard more, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal?

37%
U.S Voter Survey| 9

Anti-TPP President Support by Party

More Likely
Overall

(Don't know)

54%

Decided vote

Less Likely
29%

17%

76%

24%

Democrat (32%)

50%

32%

18%

Independent (41%)

50%

32%

19%

Republican (27%)

64%

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for President who promises to put a stop to
the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and enact trade policies that put U.S. jobs first?

20%

15%

U.S Voter Survey| 10

Anti-TPP Congressional Support by Party

More Likely
Overall

Less Likely

58%

Decided vote

27%

15%

79%

Democrat (32%)

53%

Independent (41%)

54%

Republican (27%)

(Don't know)

21%

30%

17%

30%

69%

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for U.S. Congress who promises to put a
stop to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and enact trade policies that put U.S. jobs first?

16%

18%

12%

U.S Voter Survey| 11

Lame Duck TPP Support by Party

Support
Overall

17%

Decided vote

23%

Democrat (32%)

23%

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

14%

16%

(Don't know)
25%

Oppose
57%

77%

27%

27%

21%

Do you support or oppose Congress voting on the TPP in a special session of Congress?

51%

59%

63%

U.S Voter Survey| 12

Lame Duck Congressional Vote by Party

More likely
Overall

48%

Decided vote

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

(Don't know)

Less likely
30%

69%

42%

31%

33%

47%

22%

24%

32%

56%

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for U.S. Congress who committed to
opposing any trade deals in a special after-the-election session of Congress?

24%

21%

21%

U.S Voter Survey| 13

Lame Duck Congressional Vote by Party

More likely
Overall

48%

Decided vote

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

(Don't know)

Less likely
30%

69%

42%

31%

33%

47%

22%

24%

32%

56%

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for U.S. Congress who committed to
opposing any trade deals in a special after-the-election session of Congress?

24%

21%

21%

U.S Voter Survey| 14

International Trade Attitudes

Agree

Don't Know

Disagree

U.S. businesses struggling to find workers

should be working to attract and train
Americans by raising wages or improving
working conditions rather than bringing in
workers from outside the country who will
work for less.

77%

Our economic and trade policies should

always put American needs and American
jobs first, before the needs of other
countries or big corporations.

75%

12%

13%

While increasing international trade has led

to cheaper goods, it doesnt matter how
cheap they are if I dont have a good paying
job.

74%

12%

14%

Increasing international trade is good for

the U.S. economy. It makes products like
smartphones, TVs, and clothing cheaper for
U.S. consumers, and it gives U.S. companies
access to more foreign markets to sell our
products.

55%

For each of the following statements, please indicate whether you agree or disagree.

12%

17%

11%

28%
U.S Voter Survey| 15

International Trade Attitudes

One of the reasons we have such cheap goods, particularly
cheap clothes, is because the workers making them in mostly
Asian countries, many being children, are paid slave-like wages
in harsh working conditions without any worker protections at
all. We should punish those countries with tariffs on those
imports which would raise the cost of those goods until there
are fair working conditions for all comparable to the United
States. Even though we might pay more for clothes, we would
be protecting our American values.

Agree

68%

The real economic division in America is between the elites

who see themselves as global citizens of the world and the
mainstream of America which says put America's economic
interest first and the needs of the ordinary American people
above all.
International trade has helped improve foreign relations with
other countries and has led to increased cooperation in the
international community.

For each of the following statements, please indicate whether you agree or disagree.

Don't Know

15%

64%

47%

Disagree

16%

19%

17%

20%

35%

U.S Voter Survey| 16

Crony Capitalism by Party

The same political elite who have been rigging the political process in Washington are
the same ones that have been rigging trade deals that hurt Americans, but benefit
themselves.
Agree

(Don't know)

Disagree

Overall

72%

14%

14%

Democrat (32%)

70%

15%

14%

Independent (41%)

71%

15%

15%

Republican (27%)

76%

10%

15%
U.S Voter Survey| 17

Crony Capitalism by Key Demographics

The same political elite who have been rigging the political process in Washington are
the same ones that have been rigging trade deals that hurt Americans, but benefit
themselves.
Agree

(Don't know)

Disagree

Overall

72%

White/Non-College/Men (16%)

72%

5%

White/Non-College/Less Likely
Voter/Men (4%)

70%

10%

White/Non-College/Less Likely
Voter/Women (6%)
Millennials/Less Likely Voter
(12%)

14%

76%
55%

14%

23%
20%

7%
15%

18%
30%
U.S Voter Survey| 18

U.S. Right Direction/Wrong Track

Wrong Track
64%

Right Direction
29%
(Don't Know)
7%

U.S Voter Survey| 19

American Exceptionalism
The United States is not an ordinary nation; America stands apart from all
other countries and we should protect our unique character in the world.
Strongly
Agree

42%

Somewhat
Agree

Don't
know

Somewhat
Disagree

34%

Strongly
Disagree

7%

13%

4%

U.S Voter Survey| 20

The American Dream

Do you think you are better off financially or worse
off financially than your parents were when they
were your age?

Better

46%

Worse

Don't know

37%

16%

Looking to the future, do you think most children

in this country will grow up to be better off or
worse off than their parents?
Better

23%

Worse

Don't know

50%

27%

U.S Voter Survey| 21

Unequal Opportunity
In this country right now, do you think

There are different rules for the well

connected and people with money

Everyone more or less plays by the same

rules to get ahead

Don't know

83%

10%

7%

U.S Voter Survey| 22

Legacy of Free Trade

Over the last two decades do you believe the free trade agreements signed by the
United States with other countries were:
More of a benefit to
other countries

46%

Equally beneficial to
all

More of a benefit to
the U.S.

Don't know

More of a benefit to
other countries

63%

18%
Equally beneficial to
all

25%

9%

27%

More of a benefit to
the U.S.

12%

U.S Voter Survey| 23

Global Cooperation Through Free Trade

In this country right now, do you think
Protecting American jobs by
raising tariffs on countries
with unethical trade
practices even if it harms
Americas global reputation.
Fostering good relations
between America and other
countries through free
trade agreements at the
loss of some American jobs.

Don't know

57%

Protecting American jobs by

raising tariffs on countries
with unethical trade
practices even if it harms
Americas global reputation.

72%

23%

20%

Fostering good relations

between America and other
countries through free
trade agreements at the
loss of some American jobs.

28%

U.S Voter Survey| 24

Trade Priorities
Which is more important to you?

Protecting American jobs

and industries from being
outsourced to other
countries

Allowing free trade so you

can buy products at low
prices no matter what
country they come from

Don't know

72%

Protecting American jobs

and industries from being
outsourced to other
countries

82%

16%

12%

Allowing free trade so you

can buy products at low
prices no matter what
country they come from

18%

U.S Voter Survey| 25

Decline of America by Party

America is in a state of decline
Agree
Overall

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

(Don't know)

Disagree
7%

68%

51%

10%

40%

8%

67%

89%

Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree.

25%

25%

3% 9%
U.S Voter Survey| 26

Decline of America by Key Demographics

America is in a state of decline
Agree

(Don't know)

Overall

Disagree

68%

7%

25%

White/Non-College/Men (16%)

72%

5%

White/Non-College/Less Likely
Voter/Men (4%)

70%

10%

White/Non-College/Less Likely
Voter/Women (6%)
Millennials/Less Likely Voter
(12%)

76%
55%

Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree.

23%
20%

7%
15%

18%
30%
U.S Voter Survey| 27

Issue Importance
Mean
8.52

8-10 Important Problem

73%

Government ethics and corruption

Cuts to Social Security and Medicare

72%

8.30

Jobs and unemployment

72%

8.25

The budget deficit and the national debt

69%

8.24

Terrorism attacks on American soil

70%

8.24

Fighting ISIS and Al-Qaeda terrorism

71%

American jobs moving overseas*

69%

National security and defense

67%

8.23
8.20
8.07

Increasing crime and violence

62%

7.85

Stagnation of lower-to-middle-income wages

62%

7.82

Income inequality*
Increasing border security and controlling immigration

7.26

54%

Trade deals with other countries*

44%

Climate change

46%

Social issues like abortion and same sex marriage

7.36

57%

39%

Indicate whether each one is an important problem facing the country today. On this scale,
0 is not at all an important problem and 10 is an extremely important problem.

7.06
6.57
6.13
U.S Voter Survey| 28

Foreign Policy and Security Issues

In the 15 years since 9-11, do you think the power and prestige of
the United States as an international leader and power has
Declined

56%

Remained the
same

Declined

62%

25%
Remained the
same

Increased

Don't know

28%

9%

9%

Increased

10%

U.S Voter Survey| 29

Foreign Policy and Security Issues Continued

Which of the following comes closes to your opinion?

The U.S. is only one of

several leading
military powers

53%

The U.S. is the No. 1

military power in the
world

Don't know

The U.S. is only one of

several leading
military powers

59%

37%

10%

The U.S. is the No.1

military power in the
world

41%

U.S Voter Survey| 30

Foreign Policy and Security Issues Continued

Do you feel that its important for the United States to be the No. 1 military
power in the world, or do you think that being No. 1 is not that important
as long as the U.S. is among the leading military powers?
Important for U.S. to
be No. 1 military
power in the world

54%

Not important as long

as the U.S. is among
the leading military
powers

Don't know

Important for U.S. to

be No. 1 military
power in the world

59%

37%

9%

Not important as long

as the U.S. is among
the leading military
powers

41%

U.S Voter Survey| 31

Foreign Policy and Security Issues Continued

Several weeks ago two naval patrol boats were seized by the Iranian Republican Guard.
Secretary John Kerry eventually negotiated their released, but not before footage of
American soldiers on their knees, on their own vessels, with guns pointed at their heads
was shown worldwide. Which of the following comes closest to your opinion?
This has become the
symbol of American
humiliation.

This is proof that our

improving relations with
Iran.

Don't know

54%

This has become

the symbol of
American
humiliation.

70%

23%

22%

This is proof that

our improving
relations with Iran.

30%

U.S Voter Survey| 32

Foreign Policy and Security Issues Continued

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement Just recently it was reported
that the United States must rely on Russian space rockets to put Americas most
sensitive spy and defense satellites into space. This is a frightening national security
consequence for America having crippled our own space program.
Agree

Overall

Decided vote

(Don't know)

69%

Disagree

17%

82%

15%

18%

U.S Voter Survey| 33

Foreign Policy and Security Issues Continued

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement Our immigration policies are
being written by the same corporate elite that want cheap labor anywhere they can
find it. They send our jobs and factories overseas and at the same time want to bring
lower-paid immigrant labor into our country.
Agree

Overall

Decided vote

(Don't know)

67%

Disagree

16%

79%

18%

21%

U.S Voter Survey| 34

China
Regarding China, do you think that America can rely on China as a strong economic
partner who want the United States to be safe and secure, or do you think China is
actively trying to undermine the United States to advance its own economic and
national interests?
China is trying to
undermine U.S.

Partner we can
rely on

Don't know

66%

China is trying to
undermine U.S.

84%

13%

21%

Partner we can
rely on

16%

U.S Voter Survey| 35

China Continued
Given the recent news reports about Chinas military build-up, building artificial islands
in key Pacific trade routes, cyber hacking, currency manipulation and trade policies,
which of the following statements do you most agree with:
Compromising
security

47%

Totally ignoring
threats

Successfully managed
relationship

Dont know

Compromising
security

55%

28%
Totally ignoring
threats

33%

10%

15%

Successfully managed
relationship

12%

U.S Voter Survey| 36

China Continued
There have been many news reports over the past few years about the cyber hacking
by China of sensitive and confidential United States military and financial data and
electrical power grids. In addition, millions of American government workers have had
their personal confidential files hacked and taken by the Chinese. There are claims that
China has also hacked into the confidential health records of millions of Americans.
How would you regard the way the Obama administration is handling this issue?
Obama admin. needs
to be more aggressive

Obama admin.
correctly taking action

Don't know

53%

Obama admin.
needs to be
more aggressive

67%

26%

21%

Obama admin.
correctly taking
action

33%

U.S Voter Survey| 37

Alienation
Strongly
Agree

Somewhat
Agree

Don't
Know

Somewhat
Disagree

Strongly
Disagree

Agree/Disagree

The power of ordinary people to control our

country is getting weaker every day.

47%

34%

7% 10%3% 81% / 12%

Political leaders are more interested in protecting

their power and privilege than doing what is right
for the American people.

47%

35%

6% 9% 3% 82% / 12%

The U.S. has a two-track economy, where most

Americans struggle every day, where good jobs
are hard to find, and where the huge
corporations get all the rewards.
Powerful interests from Wall Street banks to
corporations, unions and political interest groups
have used campaign and lobbying money to rig
the system for themselves.

40%

37%

36%

35%

7% 13% 5% 75% / 18%

11% 13% 4% 72% / 18%

U.S Voter Survey| 38

Alienation
Strongly
Agree

People like me dont really have much say about

how the government works.

Somewhat
Agree

Politicians really care about the economic

4%
suffering of ordinary Americans.

22%

19%

Somewhat
Disagree

37%

25%

Politicians really care about people like me. 5% 14% 6%

I believe the U.S. government is working for the

5%
peoples best interests.

Don't
Know

32%

7%

7%

36%

33%

7%

Strongly
Disagree

Agree/Disagree

21%

11% 61% / 32%

43%

19% / 75%

31%

37%

26% / 67%

23% / 70%
U.S Voter Survey| 39

Key Findings

This issue of American Trade Policy has moved from a minor issue in the
thinking of American voters to becoming a central issue as it relates not only
to trade but to economic anxieties.

While TPP is essentially unknown to the American electorate, once informed

about it they move very quickly and strongly against it.

Surprisingly, the voters of the party traditionally strongest for free trade, the
Republican party, have become the most consistent and strongest opponents
to trade policy and with those attitudes.

It appears that the trade issue and economic nationalism have become a
concrete nexus issue for the electorate. Into that issue seems to be flowing
the concerns of economic anxiety, national security and particularly the high
alienation of the American people.

U.S Voter Survey| 40