Marx and Magic Cards
Marx and Magic Cards
Marx and Magic Cards
Table of Contents
Background: Marxs Theory of Money.........................................................................1
Background: Magic: the gathering..............................................................................3
Preliminary Data......................................................................................................... 5
Experiment design................................................................................................... 13
Hypothesis............................................................................................................ 13
Procedure.............................................................................................................. 13
Discussion............................................................................................................. 14
Trading Overview............................................................................................... 14
Tournament and Confiscation............................................................................. 14
Barter Economy Analogue..................................................................................14
Assessing the Outcome......................................................................................... 15
Shortcomings, limitations, and theoretical considerations....................................15
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
Com. A = u Com. B or v Com. C or = w Com. D or = Com. E or = &c. What
differentiates the Total Form from the Accidental is that the value that is being
realized is not the utility of the good to the particular traders, rather the value of the
good stands in relation to the other commodities. In the Total Form we have the
equating of values with a kind of indifference to the particular use value. The
particular form, appearance or use value of the commodity now becomes accidental
to its value. The Total Form is equating the magnitudes of value to determine the
exchange proportions.
The third progression is the General Form of Value. The General Form of Value
functions by having all commodities find their value in a single commodity. That is,
instead of a market-wide system of equivalences between all types of commodities
based on their value, all commodities are compared to a single commodity. The
comparison to a single commodity as intermediary to all others solidifies the
consistency of the system of exchanges. Marx states that there is no fundamental
distinction between the third and fourth forms except that the commodity by which
all other commodities find their value is assumed by gold. Gold as Marx notes later
that gold and silver have the property of representing quantitative differences
through their divisibility and ability to be reunited. Put differently, the divisibility of
precious metals allows them exacting resolution in comparing quantity, that a
discrete commodity would not offer.
In the following chapter Marx describes the progression of exchange in a
narrative-like manner. The progression follows the extent of the market. Initially,
with commodity production at the margins of society, exchange is infrequent. In this
context commodities are exchanged explicitly with the goal of acquiring the use
value of the others goods. As the extent of the market increases and exchange
becomes more normalized, the owner, for some time, still sees their good in terms
of its particular equivalence to all other goods. However, as the extent of the market
grows the need for a general equivalent arises. There is the need for the consistent
comparison of goods values. It is no longer sufficient to directly compare two goods
to ascertain their exchange value. Instead, for greater consistency, merchants look
for an intermediate good by which all goods can be measured. Marx posits that this
mediating good is determined situationally important articles of outside exchange
or objects of utility that constitute the bulk of alienable wealth.
We can schematize these two descriptions in a number of other ways. We can
describe the progression as a logical strategic progression. In a market where there
are few traders, each agent must engage in direct trades where both agents happen
to desire the good offered by the other. That is, A will only trade with B if B has what
A wants. As the number of traders increases the possibility of intermediary
exchanges arises. We might imagine that A wants what B has, B wants what C has,
and C wants what A has. In order for A to acquire what B has, A must trade first with
C. As the number of agents expands further, this logic intensifies. Let us posit that A
has a good desired by many traders, however, A only wants a single particular
good. Even though B doesnt want what A trades, if B acquires the good desired by
A it gives them access to all of the goods offered by all of the traders who want
what A has to offer. If a particular good becomes broadly desirable, it would take on
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
an additional utility by merit of offering access to the market of traders who desire
that good. This utility that arises from access to other goods, adds further
compounding desirability for that good. This results in a particular good becoming
increasingly desirable and acting with greater frequency as an intermediary of
exchange. It is a network effect or strategic complement. The logic of the
interaction is that this particular good becomes universally accepted as an
intermediary of exchange. As corollary, depending on the form of the particular
commodity, the use-value as intermediary of exchange will change the perceived
raison detre of the good. We can understand this universal intermediary as the
general form of value.
Alternatively, we can conceptualize the progression in terms of systems of
equations. If we consider each trade as an equation (e.g. X of A = Y of B.) During
the accidental form, the coefficients of A and B would be inconsistent. But, as the
extent of the market increases the consistency of our system of equations should
increase. As their values become established and exchange more normalized, the
coefficients should be normalized as well. Mirroring the logic of Marx, exigencies of
the market would then demand that the valuations of commodities across the entire
system become consistent and comparable. Viewed from this framework, the
system would yield systems of equations that included an intermediary commodity
with greater frequency until all goods had their value measured by a particular set
of commodities. The system of equations would shift such that each good could be
consistently measured against a single commodity. However, there may be some
loss of integrity of the consistency of non-money commodity exchanges. The
adoption of a commodity that provides greater resolution (the nearly infinite
divisibility of gold for example) would therefore allow for the greatest consistency of
the system of equations. A money-commodity that was not highly divisible would
yield lower resolution result. Given trader proclivities a low resolution currency
would allow value estimates to waver on the indeterminacy of the discrete unit.
Based on these analyses, Marxs theory of money predicts a progression of
behaviors and relations:
1. Increasing consistency of commodity valuations
2. The realization of network effects: direct trades -> intermediary exchanges ->
Money-like commodities
3. Predicts that a money-commodity will arise
a. Money-commodity will have broadly desired use value
b. Moneyness will tend toward commodities with high resolution infinitely
divisible or minute discrete size
c. The exchange value of the eventual money-commodity should rise over
time as the use-value as currency adds an additional utility vector to the
commodity
d. Because the money-commodity allows access to markets of goods, the
money-commodity should circulate at an inordinate level
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
as a combination of chance (based on likelihood of drawing a card in ones deck)
and category states. Each card presents a series of attributes, categories and
abilities (see figure.)
All other things being equal the following determine the utility of a card.
Higher and/or more specific mana costs make a card less useful. Creature cards with
higher power or toughness are more useful. Cards with more advantageous abilities
give them a larger utility vector. Finally, each card has a type. The most common
types are creature, sorcery, artifact, land, instant or enchantment. No card type is
de jure better. The final determinant of utility is the degree to which the card
strategically interacts with other cards.
Typical deck building strategies will include cards that interact to promote a
strategy. These strategies can vary in specificity. That is, a cards can interact
broadly e.g. all generally interacting to produce large and powerful creatures not
relying on a particular card. Conversely, cards can interact narrowly, focusing on a
win condition generated by a single card. With this in mind, cards become
contextually useful. For example, looking at the Goblin Electromancer (see picture
as left.) this card simply would not function in a deck that relied on white, black or
green mana. Similarly, the cards ability lowers the mana cost of instant and sorcery
cards. This means that the card would interact strategically with decks that contain
these card types.
2 http://magiccards.info/rules.html
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
Preliminary Data
I postulate that it is a cards ability to
interact strategically with a broad number of deck
strategies that allows a card to gain moneyness.
That is, in the context of many gamers desiring
particular cards, if a card that is rare and interacts
strategically with many deck strategies then it
makes the card broadly desirable. This broad
desirability gives the card moneyness, further
utility, increasing its prices and giving is possessor
access to a larger trading space. The expectation is
that we should see cards that fit in this category to
exhibit a price significantly beyond its in game
utility.
It is important to bear in mind that this
analysis is complicated by these cards already
existing in a real world market that itself contains
money. That is, the existence of real life currency, within the scope of the
commodity -> money progression inhibits a new commodity from taking on
moneyness. Keeping this limitation in mind, the preliminary data is still promising.
To begin the search I considered which cards fit
the criterions of being both relatively scarce yet
maintaining a high degree of strategic interaction with
a broad set of deck building strategies. The category
of card that fits this criterion is the rare land card.
Land cards are the one card type which is essential to
any deck strategy. However, basic lands are so
common that they suffer from inflation and are near
worthless (some card shops are known to give them
out for free during drafts.) Rare lands on the other
hand are not ubiquitous and have broad strategic
interactions. For the preliminary data I followed one of
these cards, Flooded Strand (see picture left.) This
card interacts positively with decks that pursue a blue
and white mana base. The card exists alongside
comparable rare land cards with near identical ability
text. These other similar rare lands interact with other
deck strategies similarly combining access to two mana colors.
To assess whether the chosen card had a price that was disproportionate to
its rarity I compared it to the price of a selection of other cards. All of the selected
cards are from the same set release, Khans of Tarkir, and recorded over the same
interval of time. This means that all prices reflect the cards existence in the same
strategic or gamer meta-analysis milieu. Furthermore, ten cards were selected from
each rarity type. That is, ten commons, ten uncommons, ten rares, and ten mythic
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
rares. It should be noted that while a cards value is believed to be a function of its
rarity and utility, that rarity and utility tend to be covariant. The graph below shows
the pricing of various cards over the same 47 day interval. The entries have been
color coded according to rarity: Mythic Rare, Rare, Uncommon and Common. The
card of interest, Flooded Stand, is in black. The first thing that stands out is that the
pricing of Flooded Strand is well above the typical price of rares.
$10.00
Bloodfire Mentor
Alpine Grizzly
Comparison
Act of Treason
Ainok Bond-kin
Dragonscale Boon
Seigecraft
Abzan Guide
Abzan banner
Blossoming Sand
Quiet Contemplation
Burn Away
Bellowing Saddlebrute
Abzan charm
Armament Corp
Cranial Archive
Sandsteppe Citadel
Grim haruspex
End Hostilities
Crater's claw
Crackling doom
Ankle Shanker
Abzan Ascendancy
Flooded Strand
Zurgo Helmsmasher
Clever Impersonator
10
There are two cards that appear to be comparable in pric, Sarkhan, the
Dragonspeaker and Sorin, the Solemn Visitor. However, if one expands their view it
is clear that these two cards were both in the process of falling in price after an
12
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
early period of player speculation. In short, once the market of players had begun to
assess the true value of the card, its price declined to match.
According with my initial postulates the pricing of other card rarity types follows.
The pricing data for Watcher of the Roost is typical of common cards. There is an
initial jump as the card is brand new and the players sort out what it is worth, but
the price stabilizes.
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
Similarly, if one looks at the card of interest, Flooded Strand, over a long time
horizon it similarly accords with expectation. The card, with its broad strategic
interactions, maintains a consistently high price over time. However, it also
responds to the changes in the strategic landscape as new sets are released. It
should be noted that the peaks that appear in both Flooded Strand and the Cranial
Archive correspond to the release of a new set of cards.
The same pattern that one sees with Flooded Strand is repeated with its different
colored counterparts. That is, as rare lands, they all maintain an inordinate and
consistently high price over time that reacts to changes in game strategy.
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
This data is not without anomalies. Flooded Strand is a reprint. This means that the
card is not unique and occurs in other set releases. Each printing of the card retains
its own pricing. This is likely attributable to the varying degrees of collectability.
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
Below is pricing history for an earlier print of Flooded Strand. The pricing has a
marked decrease in Sept. of 2015 which corresponds with the release of the new
print set of Flooded Strand with different card art. While the earlier print declines in
value, its price does not converge to meet the price of the new print.
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
how to measure cards that passively interact. For example an elf creature card that
increased the power of all elves in play would actively interact with other elf cards.
But, an elf creature card that didnt have any ability text would not interact actively
with any other cards, except by merit of simply being an elf.
What was decided was to use time stamped google search results as a proxy
to measure the player meta-analysis/deck building strategizing. This proxy would
then give me an estimate of the perceived strategic interactions of the cards. In
other words, it is assumed that the more players talk about a given card the more
strategic interactions that card has. The graph below shows the google search
results vs price for a number of cards. The data forms into tranches. Each tranche is
a particular card as the number of search results varies over time. Furthermore, the
data was screened to remove inordinate results. That is, each card would have
regular and inordinate search results that were multiple orders of magnitude
deviations from the norm. These results were likely the result of advertising internet
bots. Baring the cloud of points in the center there seems to be a consistent pattern
of elevated search results correlating with a higher price.
$1.00
$10.00
Axis Title
$100.00
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
The cloud of data points tracks a card, Hardened Scales, that was changing in price
significantly during the period in question. Initially, the explanation was the
inordinate search results reflected both the higher price and the state of flux that
the price was in. That is, players were eager to discuss the card as perceptions were
shifting regarding its usefulness.
This explanation was found to be problematic. Data was collected just for this card
to see if the pattern of google search results over time compared to price would
prove fruitful. This was not found to be the case. The google search results appear
to be noise and defy any consistent narrative explanation. More specifically,
information was leaked regarding cards from a future set of magic cards that would
strategically interact with Hardened Scales. This was thought to explain the
elevated discussion despite the price not correlating, as people would not be able to
purchase the new card so the price would stay low, but speculation would stay high.
However, pushing the data further back in time, there was found to be no uptick in
google search results with the leaked information. The only remaining and
consistent explanation, is that not all rare cards appear in the same quantity. This
means that players do find Hardened Scales to be strategically interactive with
many strategies, but that a significantly larger number of the cards have been put
into circulation compared to other rare cards. Thereby, maintaining its usefulness
and speculation but suppressing its value. No information is available on the
number of Hardened Scales in circulation to verify this speculation.
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
7/15/15
10/23/15
1/31/16
Time
Price 3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
4/6/15
5/26/15 7/15/15
Time
Experiment design
Summary: The experiment aims to create a barter economy that contains
commodities of variable utility. By monitoring the exchanges that are made in this
temporary economy, I can observe whether the exchange-behavior mirrors the
progression described by Marx.
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
Procedure
1. I will host a tournament at a local gaming store whose patrons 3 commonly play
Magic: the gathering.
2. Each participant will have an ID number written on their wrist. This number will
be used later in recording trades.
3. The rules of the tournament will be explained to the participants. Participants will
be warned against collusion4, and informed that they will be removed from the
tournament if it is determined that they had colluded. Any players found making
undocumented exchanges will be removed from the tournament.
4. At a predetermined time, each participant will receive a trade form, 3 booster
packs and 20 basic land cards5
5. Players will be given three hours to trade cards and build decks. Players will
document each exchange on their trade form including their Player ID number,
the card number6 of each card they traded in that exchange, the other players
ID number, the card numbers and a time stamp
6. The players will then play a tournament.
7. All cards will be confiscated7
8. Each player will receive a booster packs as prizes. They will receive them in a
arithmetically increasing scale for each consecutive victory. E.g. One booster
pack for the first victory. Two for the second. And, three for the third. And
starting over again if they lose the fourth match. 8
9. Trade forms will be entered and analyzed.
Discussion
Trading Overview
Each player will receive 3 booster packs and 20 basic land cards. In other
words, each player will have an initial endowment of 65 cards. Assuming fifty
3 Players of MTG tend to be well versed in the most recent strategies. They will be
knowledgeable in the strategic interactions of the cards and their current prices.
4 Collusion amongst players is a known phenomenon.
5 Magic Card decks are typically 60+ cards. A rule of thumb is that 1 in 3 cards
should be a land card. Land cards do not appear in this ratio in the booster packs.
This is a deviation from a typical draft. In a typical draft no land cards are given out
and after players have constructed their decks the game shop will give out basic
land cards as needed.
6 Each card within a set has a number in the lower left hand corner.
7 Confiscating the cards insulates the cards from real world money-price, personal
acquisition, and collectability considerations.
8 Having prizes won in this manner promotes player participation and undermines
the intent to collude.
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
participants9 this will mean 150 rares/mythic rares and a total of 3,250 cards in
circulation. Assuming that each player engages in a single color deck strategy and
each card is traded a single time, a single trial will yield approximately 2,600 cards
traded. One should not expect participant behavior to be that straight forward.
Likely, trading behavior will include deception, coordination, countering,
anticipation, merchant arbitrage, and scarcity limits to viable deck strategies.
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Trade Form
From
Player
Numb
er
Card
Numbers
To
Player
Numb
er
Byron Harmon
Trading Cards and Marxs Theory of Money