Tut 30 POYO (Solutions)

Tutorial 30: Probability II
Practise on Your Own

1
1
. The
5
1
1
probability that B will hit the target is
. The probability that C will hit the target is
. If
4
3
A, B and C fire one shot each at a target. The probability that A will hit the target is
they fire together, calculate the probability that
(i)
all three shots hit the target,
(ii)
only Cs shot hits the target,
(iii)
at least one shot hits the target,
(iv)
exactly two shot hit the target.
A recent poll of residents in a certain country revealed the following information about voters
preferences:
Male
Female
Democrat
50
60
Republican
40
30
Independent
20
25
The following events are defined:

M: resident is male; F: resident is female; D: resident is a Democrat; R: resident is a Republican
I: resident is an independent.
Find: (a) P(R|F),
(b) P(M|D),
(c) P(M|RI ).
3 Ivan and Joe are chess players. In any game the probabilities of Ivan beating Joe, Joe beating
Ivan, or the game resulting in a draw are 0.6, 0.1 or 0.3 respectively. They play a series of 5
games. Calculate the probability that
(i)
they win alternate games with Ivan winning the first game,
(ii) exactly three of the games are drawn,
(i) Joe does not win more than one game.
A box contains 25 apples, of which 20 are red and 5 are green. Of the red apples, 3 contain
maggots and of the green apples, 1 contains maggots. Two apples are chosen at random from
the box. Find, in any order, the probability that
(i)
both apples contain maggots,
(ii)
both apples are red and at least one contains maggots,
(iii) at least one apple contains maggots, given that both apples are red,
(iv) both apples are red given that at least one apple is red.
A choir has 7 sopranos, 6 altos, 3 tenors and 4 basses. The sopranos and altos are women and
the tenors and basses are men. At a particular rehearsal, three members of the choir are chosen
at random to make tea. Find the probability that
(i) all three tenors are chosen,
(ii) exactly one bass is chosen,

(iii) two women are chosen, given that exactly one bass is chosen,
(iv) the chosen group contains exactly one tenor or exactly one bass, or both.
In a simple model of the weather in October, each day is classified as either fine or rainy.
The probability that a fine day is followed by a fine day is 0.8.
The probability that a rainy day is followed by a fine day is 0.4.
The probability that 1 October is fine is 0.75. Find the probability that
(i)
2 October is fine
(ii) 3 October is fine.

(iii) Find the conditional probability that 3 October is rainy, given that 1 October is fine.
(iv) Find the conditional probability that 1 October is fine, given that 3 October is rainy.
[J89/2/6]
A bag contains 10 orange-flavoured, 14 strawberry-flavoured and 16 cherry-flavoured sweets

which are of identical shapes and sizes.
Benny selects a sweet at random from the bag. If it is not cherry-flavoured he replaces it and
selects another sweet at random. He repeats the process until he obtains a cherry-flavoured
sweet. Calculate the probability that
(i)
the first sweet selected is strawberry-flavoured and the fourth sweet is orange-flavoured,
(ii)
he selects an even number of sweets.
[Solution]
(i)
7
Required probability
20
63
3 1
2000 or 0.0315
5 4
3
(ii)
2
3 2 3 2 3
Required probability ...
5
5 5 5 5 5
2
4
6
1
3
3
3 2 3
1
... 25 . 1 3 2 8
5
5
5 5 5
A street ball match between Singapore United and Singapore Rovers ends in a draw and the
match is to be decided on the result of penalty kicks. One round of penalty kicks consists of two
kicks, one kick being taken by each team. If both teams score or if both teams fail to score, then
another round of penalty kicks is played. The match is won when, in a round of penalty kicks,
one team scores and the other team fails to score.
The probability that Singapore United scores a goal with a penalty kick is 0.8 and
independently, the probability that Singapore Rovers scores a goal with a penalty kick is 0.9.
Find the probability that the result of the match is still undecided after 1 round.
(i) Find the probability that Singapore United wins the match in less than 3 rounds of penalty
kicks given that Singapore United scores a goal in the first round of penalty kicks.
(ii) Find the least number of rounds of penalty kicks n such that the probability that the result
of the match is decided in at most n rounds of penalty kicks is greater than 0.98.
[09/ACJC/II/13]
[Solution]
P(match is still undecided after 1 round )
= P(both score a goal) + P(both did not score a goal) = 0.8 0.9 + 0.2 0.1 = 0.74 =
37
50
(i) P(United won in less than 3 rounds| United scores a goal in the first round)
P(United won in less than 3 rounds and United scores a goal in the first round)
P(United scores a goal in the first round
0.8 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.1
=
0.8
= 0.172
=
(ii) P(result is decided in at most n rounds) > 0.98

1 P(result is not decided in n rounds) > 0.98
P(result is not decided in n rounds) < 0.02
37
50
< 0.02
ln 0.02
= 12.992
ln 37
50
Least n = 13
n>
n 1
13 37 13 37
13 37
13

....
0.98
50 50 50 50
50 50
50
2
n 1
13
37 37
37
0.98
1 ....
50
50 50
50
n
13
37
1

50
50
0.98
37
1
50
n
37
0.02
50
4

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Tutorial 30: Probability II

Practise on Your Own

they fire together, calculate the probability that

all three shots hit the target,

only Cs shot hits the target,

at least one shot hits the target,

exactly two shot hit the target.

The following events are defined:

(ii) exactly three of the games are drawn,

(i) Joe does not win more than one game.

both apples contain maggots,

both apples are red and at least one contains maggots,

(ii) exactly one bass is chosen,

(ii) 3 October is fine.

A bag contains 10 orange-flavoured, 14 strawberry-flavoured and 16 cherry-flavoured sweets

he selects an even number of sweets.

(ii) P(result is decided in at most n rounds) > 0.98

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