Towards An Africa Urban Agenda

TOWARDS AN
AFRICA URBAN
AGENDA
HS Number
UNITED NATIONS HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PROGRAMME

P.O.Box 30030,Nairobi 00100,Kenya;
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TOWARDS AN
AFRICA URBAN
AGENDA
02 TOWA R D S A N A F R I C A U R B A N AG E N DA
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United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) 2015
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www.unhabitat.org
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Economic Commission for Africa

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First printing September 2015
Title: Towards an African Urban Agenda

Language: English
ISBN: 978-99944-61-72-7
eISBN: 978-99944-62-72-8
Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted. Acknowledgement is requested, together with a copy of the
publication.
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whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and the United Nations Human
Settlements Programme concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the
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Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme, the
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TOWA R D S A N A F R I C A U R B A N AG E N DA 03
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This publication was undertaken as a complement to the Africa Regional review report of the Third
United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development- Habitat III in support
of the development of an inclusive and sustainable African Urban Agenda.
This publication was undertaken as part of the Africa Urban Agenda Programme, an initiative of UN-
Habitat. The report was conceptualized by UN-Habitat and drafted by the African Center for Cities at
the University of Cape Town and jointly published by United Nations Human Settlements Programme
(UN- Habitat) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).
AUTHORS ECA ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT TEAM:

Lead Author: Prof. Edgar Pieterse Tigist Eshetu
Contributors: Susan Parnell and Gareth Haysom Meaza Molla
Deborah Abebe
UN-HABITAT TECHNICAL TEAM
Abraham Kassa
Mariam Yunusa - Overall Coordination
Thomas Melin PEER REVIEW
Lucia Kiwala Oyebanji Oyeyinka UN-Habitat
Omoayena Odunbaku Alemakef Tassew Kebede Addis Ababa University
Aloysious Mosha University of Botswana
UNECA TECHNICAL TEAM
Firdaous Oussidhoum Africa Institute of Architects (AIA)
Takyiwaa Manuh Jean Pierre Elong Mbasi United Cities and Local
Edlam Abera Yemeru Governments of Africa (UCLG-A)
Semia Solange Guermas de Tapia Rasna Warah Freelance writer
Sandra Zawedde Shuaib Lwasa Makerere University
UN-HABITAT ADMINSTRATIVE SUPPORT TEAM Taibat Lawanson University of Lagos
Wycliffe Tongwa DESIGN AND LAYOUT

Florence Bunei Andrew Ondoo
Elizabeth Kahwae
Emmanuel Bugoye FINACIAL SUPPORT
The Federal Government of Nigeria
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)
Lagos, Nigeria. © Shutterstock
We aspire that, by 2063, Africa shall be a prosperous continent with

the means and resources to drive its own development, and where
African people have a high standard of living and quality of life, sound
health and well-being; Well educated citizens and skills revolution
underpinned by science, technology and innovation for a knowledge
society; Cities and other settlements are hubs of cultural and economic
activities, with modernized infrastructure, and people have access to all
the basic necessities of life including shelter, water, sanitation, energy,
public transport and ICT; Economies are structurally transformed to
create shared growth, decent jobs and economic opportunities for all…
(Agenda 2063 - The Africa We Want)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.............................................................................................................3
UN-HABITAT FOREWORD..........................................................................................................6
UNECA FOREWORD...................................................................................................................8
01. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................10
02. HABITAT AGENDA: TAKING STOCK AND CONSIDERING POTENTIAL....................................14
03. AFRICAN URBANISATION: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS..........................................................16

Differential Urbanisation Trends in Africa.......................................................................................... 16
Youthful Labour Force intersects with Urbanisation........................................................................... 19
Income Poverty and Inequality.......................................................................................................... 21
Infrastructural Deficits and Demands................................................................................................ 22
Urban Ecosystems and Climate Change............................................................................................ 24
Social Dynamics of Urbanisation ..................................................................................................... 25
04. WHAT DOES SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT MEAN FOR AFRICA?............................28
05. CONCEPTUAL FRAME: SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA............................30

Macro Development Frame (Global, Continental & National)............................................................. 30
From Macro to Urban....................................................................................................................... 33
Urban Service Delivery Strategies and Investment Portfolios ............................................................ 35
06. INSTITUTIONAL ARCHITECTURE TO OPTIMISE AFRICA’S URBAN FUTURE...........................38
National Urban Policy...................................................................................................................... 39
Legislative Reform Agenda............................................................................................................... 41
Decentralisation Support Programme............................................................................................... 41
Research and Development System to Underpin Urban Innovation.................................................... 44
Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning system..................................................................................... 44
07. NEXT STEPS.........................................................................................................................47
08. CONCLUSION......................................................................................................................48
REFERENCES.............................................................................................................................49
UN-HABITAT FOREWORD
Africa is now at an impressive outcomes such as productivity increases, rising employment
stage of transformation and income resulting from skilled activities in industry and
witnessing rapid wealth services, yielding increased prosperity and higher quality of
generation. This is manifested life. The capacity of urbanization to generate wealth is greatly
in the high growth of GDP determined by the quality of its design, stemming from the
in many countries and linked fact that urbanization is a social and community endeavor.
to the significant growth in
Although Africa currently faces urban challenges, it has, more
urbanization that goes hand in
importantly, an immense opportunity of directing urbanization
hand. While Africa is still the
towards a model inducive to prosperity, employment and social
least urbanized continent, its urbanization rates are higher
well-being. There have been examples of huge urbanization
than anywhere else in the world. These parallel evolutions
processes, as illustrated with the case of China, where the role
– the growth of GDP and growth of urbanization – present
of urbanization in fostering development has been clearly
a unique opportunity to review the African urban growth
demonstrated. However, the Chinese model has not been
pattern so that over the next three to five decades, urbanization
able to effectively address the environmental dimensions of
can be properly guided as a driver of sustainable development.
urbanization.The objective of the United Nations, stated in
The alternative to planned urbanization is a chaotic evolution
the Sustainable Development Goals, especially Goal 11 – to
of towns and cities that will be a hindrance to prosperity and
make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient
social integration. In the last two decades, there has been a
and sustainable – advocates for a balance between the three
growing professional consensus on the role of sustainable
pillars of sustainable development; economic, social and
urbanization as a tool for development. Studies and findings
environmental, towards a prosperous society.
from Economic Geography from the 1990s provide consistent
scientific evidence of this correlation (World Bank, 2009). In today’s African reality where there is a still much
development needed, the role of efficient urbanization as
The nature of Africa’s economic growth till date has been
a tool for development holds unprecedented potential. In
mostly based on the primary sector of the economy (extractive
most of the analysis of African development there is a lack
industries and agriculture). The expected next step of
of in-depth attention to the role of urbanization as a tool for
substantive development will be a progressive shift towards
economic growth. Most of the analysis focus on the ailments
more productive sectors of the economy, mainly industrial
of urbanization but not on transforming urbanization into
manufacturing (secondary sector) and services (tertiary sector).
a tool for a successful development strategy. This one-sided
The main vehicle for this sectoral transition is urbanization
approach has promoted ad hoc and partial interventions in
which changes the structural compositions of all sizes of cities,
detriment of a strategic vision that will increase the advantages
from the large cities to the rural villages. When this transition
of urbanization.
is properly managed it tends to yield the expected development
To foster a more sustainable urbanization model in Africa, efforts of African Ministers in charge of Housing and Urban
some changes of approach are required. At national Development over the past decades. They have articulated
government level, there is a need to clearly state the rules of the a shared view towards Habitat III, through the sessions of
game country-wide in order to mobilize society, stakeholders, the African Ministerial Conference of Housing and Urban
the private sector and foreign investment in the process. A Development and in other fora, integrating productive
National Urban Policy can be a good tool for framing the urbanization within the core pillars of Agenda 2063, for
debate, and build consensus and strategies that can deliver Africa’s structural transformation.
a level playing field to unleash the opportunities presented
In this context, UN-Habitat is actively supporting the Africa
by urbanization. At the local level, there is a need to focus
Urban Agenda Programme in close cooperation with Member
the strategic interventions in a pragmatic manner in order
States. This cooperation has sought to coordinate urban actors
to address the local specificities on rules and regulations,
in Africa and support systematic urban policy formulation,
urban design and financial design conducive to planned city
advocacy, and implementation and monitoring leading up
extensions and other tools that can yield the expected wealth
to Habitat III in 2016. I commend the process of citizens’
derived from planned urbanization.
participation that many African countries are engaging
The urban transformation that UN-Habitat foresees for Africa in, through National Urban Forums, National Habitat
demands in depth consideration of its legal framework, its Committees and preparation of National Habitat III Reports,
urban design and its financial plan. In some countries, there which, in both bottom-up and top-down processes, seeks
may be no need for more legislation but for existing legislation to deepen the ownership of the transformative and people-
to be consistently applied. Special attention is required in centered Africa Urban Agenda.
urban planning because the current analysis of urbanization
UN-Habitat’s partnership with UNECA to link these
shows an insufficient allocation of land for common spaces
processes with the macro-economic planning and feed them
and services, severely undermining the economic value of
into regional integration is much commended and give all of
buildable plots and contributing to the continent-wide issue of
us much hope and energy for Africa’s urban transformation.
urban congestion. Equally important is the need to focus on
the financial design as in general, the value that urbanization
generates is not currently shared sufficiently to offset its cost.
These fundamental pillars of urbanization, known as

the three-pronged approach, are usually determined
at the national level. That is why a renewed role of Joan Clos
central government in this process, together with the Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director
consistent empowerment of local authorities, is proposed. United Nations Human Settlements Programme
In this process, Africa owes debts of gratitude to the excellent (UN-Habitat)
UNECA FOREWORD
As Africa’s urban innovation, and optimizing infrastructure investment,
population almost doubles provides an important lever for change. ECA has thus
in the next two decades, reinvigorated its work on urbanization to help seize this
the imperative of steering unique combination of opportunities.
and guiding the growth
process – through national As decision-makers recognize urbanization as inevitable
planning - becomes a and appreciate its implications, they will cushion
priority. Africa’s rapid its impact and harness its benefits. The narrative on
urbanization presents urbanization in Africa must move away from a negative
an unprecedented to a more positive tone. It is urgent to improve the
opportunity to accelerate livability and increase productivity of cities. While
the region’s transformation to respond to development Africa’s urban population growth is a powerful asset for
challenges. Africa needs a transformative agenda that development, this can only be realized when cities are
entails substantial changes in the sectoral composition properly planned and adequately serviced.
of its GDP including a shift of productive activities Unfortunately, few African countries have adequately
from primary to secondary sectors, particularly industry factored the challenges and opportunities of sustainable
and manufacturing, as well as a change in the spatial urbanization in their national development planning.
distribution of economic activities from rural to urban Although urbanization has the potential to make
areas. This is essential given concerns about the quality economies and people more prosperous, most African
and sustainability of the region’s impressive economic countries have found themselves grossly unprepared in
growth rate in recent years despite the optimism about the face of the spatial, demographic, social, cultural,
future prospects. economic and environmental challenges associated with
Urbanization is a decisive determinant of Africa’s ability urbanization. If the potential to harness urbanization
to realize its vision of transformation. The dynamism is not “captured” by forward-looking policymakers
which African cities are exhibiting today with respect to within the next several years, the continent may witness
higher value creation, increasing productivity, fostering intractable obstacles to its vision.
Setting the agenda right is just the obvious first step.

Much more is needed if implementation of good
ideas are to take center stage. I am convinced the
youthfulness, creativity and innovation associated with
cities are essential assets for the industrialization drive
most African countries envision. As latecomers, African
countries have one unique factor over others: they can
learn from previous mistakes. And, in so doing, lead the
way for the urban landscape.
Carlos Lopes
Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
(UNECA)
01 INTRODUCTION
The next two years provide an unprecedented Shaping all of these debates is the broader African-
opportunity for member states of the United Nations driven process of the African Union to formulate an
and their populations to shape the urban future of endogenous growth trajectory towards 2063. The
the 21st Century. Every country, every member of spirit of pan-Africanism, cultural pride and political
civil society and the private sector, along with their determination called upon by the African Union serves
governments, is expected to engage vigorously on the as a touchstone for this report.
state of urbanisation in their country, determining what
needs to be done to achieve transformative outcomes The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) framework
over the next 20 years. is striving to extend the work of the Millennium
Development Goals to eliminate extreme poverty and
This report is a resource for African citizens and create a development framework that can see more
governments as they utilise the opportunity that the inclusive and sustainable patterns of growth.2
Habitat III process opens up. More specifically, the
report aims to strengthen Habitat Agenda Partners and The SDG discussion is novel in that it explicitly
other non-state actors in Sub-Saharan Africa in their confronts the fact that the current model of
policy dialogues and capacity-building processes. The extractive growth violates the limits of the natural
report is designed to inform and enrich national level resource base of the Earth and therefore requires ‘a
engagements across sub-Saharan Africa on advancing radical shift towards more sustainable patterns of
the urban agenda. consumption and production and resource use.3
It also recognises that poverty cannot be disconnected
The report puts the agenda of Habitat III in the context from inequality, which speaks to inequitable access
of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) due to to power and resources globally, regionally, within
be finalised in September 2015; the Conference of the countries, within settlements and within households if
Parties, signatory to the UN Framework Convention we consider patriarchal gender relations.
on Climate Change (COP)1 scheduled for Paris in
December 2015 and the AfriCities Summit 7, planned The post-2015 focus on natural resource limits is also
for 29 November- 3 December 2015. The contemporary confronted through the debate on climate change, which
political moment is further contextualised in terms of reaches an important milestone at the Paris COP (21).
the lineage of ideas and policies that stem from Habitat Since the Kyoto Protocol has expired, a binding deal on
I in 1976 and Habitat II in 1996. carbon emission cuts to stay within a range of 2 degrees
warming has yet to be completed. Optimists are looking

to the dissuasions in Paris to deliver a universally-
applicable agreement that will be legally binding. With
the growing awareness that cities are central to the overall
global effort to address climate variability through the
work of the C40 and ICLEI, among many others, the
Paris conference is expected to reaffirm the importance
of urban management in this agenda.4
The implications of these multilateral processes

are profound, especially for Africans. For the first
time since the heyday of industrial modernisation
after the Second World War, there is near-universal
acknowledgement that the current model of economic
growth is untenable. A new pathway has to be found
that is more environmentally sustainable, socially just
and economically inclusive.
Since Africa has undoubtedly been the worst victim of

unjust global economic rules and dynamics, rooted in the
colonial project of exploitation and political subjugation
with profound cumulative effects of maldevelopment, it
is impossible to overstate just how significant the current
moment of development rethinking is. We are on the
edge of a paradigm change in mainstream development Nairobi, Kenya. © UN-Habitat
thinking and practice, which is potentially good

news for Africa in general and its cities in particular.5 To illustrate the potential for paradigm change,
The movement towards a shared African perspective on The Report of the High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on
these global debates is vital and this was reflected in the the Post-2015 Development Agenda frames the current
elaboration of the Common African Position (CAP) on conjuncture boldly:
the post-2015 Development Agenda in January 2014.6
perspective that is imperative to action at the city scale

where the complex challenges of development meet and
A new development agenda should carry forward the spirit of are concentrated. There is thus in the Goals and post-
the Millennium Declaration and the best of the MDGs, with a 2015 processes not only a commitment to addressing
practical focus on things like poverty, hunger, water, sanitation, the sub-national scale, but to doing so holistically.
education and healthcare. But to fulfil our vision of promoting
sustainable development, we must go beyond the MDGs. They It is with this global opportunity in mind that the
did not focus enough on reaching the very poorest and most
African Union’s Africa 2063 vision and campaign is
excluded people. They were silent on the devastating effects of
conflict and violence on development. The importance to devel-
gaining traction. The 2063 vision is focussed on:
opment of good governance and institutions that guarantee the
rule of law, free speech and open and accountable government
• A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and
was not included, nor the need for inclusive growth to provide sustainable development
jobs.7
• An integrated continent, politically united and based
Most seriously, the MDGs fell short by not integrating the on the ideals of Pan-Africanism and the vision of
economic, social, and environmental aspects of sustainable Africa’s Renaissance
development as envisaged in the Millennium Declaration, and
by not addressing the need to promote sustainable patterns of • An Africa of good governance, democracy, respect for
consumption and production. The result was that environment human rights, justice and the rule of law
and development were never properly brought together.8
• A peaceful and secure Africa
• An Africa with a strong cultural identity, common
It is anticipated that this will be addressed through heritage, values and ethics
the Sustainable Development Goals. It is also for this • An Africa where development is people-driven,
reason that there has been a massive global campaign9 unleashing the potential of its women Youth Africa
for an urban Goal over the past two years because
as a strong, united and influential global player and
effective urban management is seen as the linchpin for
partner11
an agenda that brings the environment and development
together.10 The task now is to position this African thinking in
global debates and forums, such as Habitat III, where
Equally significant is that the philosophical basis binding commitments will be made by all nations. In this
of development advocated by the Goals is socially, regard, African countries must prioritise the importance
economically and environmentally integrated – a
of creating the enabling conditions for a structural

economic shift from an agricultural or resource-
based economy towards significant improvement in
manufacturing and processing of agricultural products,
and gradual movement to a more knowledge-intensive,
services and manufacturing structure.12
Africa’s preparations for Habitat III, the first of the

new cycle of UN post-2015 agreements, provides an
excellent opportunity to project ideas on how vibrant,
inclusive and sustainable cities and towns can unlock
the continent’s potential. First, it is important to
consider what the Habitat Agenda involves and what
the specificities of the African urban condition are. By
considering material conditions on the ground, future
trends and normative imperatives for sustainable urban
development, the specific priorities of an African Urban
Agenda will be clarified for analysis, debate and common
Praia City, Cabo Verde. © UN-Habitat
action.
02 HABITAT AGENDA: TAKING STOCK AND
CONSIDERING POTENTIAL
Lagos, Nigeria. © UN-Habitat
The September 2014 General Assembly of the United imperative to align the emphasis of the high-level
Nations in New York affirmed that cities should agreements not only in a single urban goal, but also in
be profiled more explicitly in global development common targets and indicators.
priorities, endorsing a dedicated urban Sustainable
Development Goal that commits the world to ‘make Some hope that Habitat III, being billed as a ‘New
cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient Urban Agenda’, will build on Goal 11 and provide the
and sustainable’ for ratification in September 2015.13 first truly global urban paradigm and not just define the
For the organisers of Habitat III, the likelihood of a means of implementation of a few specified targets and
stand alone urban Goal (henceforth Goal 11) creates indicators.14
both opportunities and constraints as there is an obvious
If we are to achieve the African Union’s 2063 vision, it Habitat III’s core task then is to deal with the issue
would be a mistake to think that securing the stand alone of global leadership on cities, setting out a normative
urban Goal is enough and that Habitat III will have base, highlighting priority interventions that will shift
done its job if it simply affirms a general commitment the urban trajectory, provide a reporting structure that
to cities as sites of sustainable development. Rather, incentivizes good collective urban practices for current
the challenge for 2016 is to set out an appropriate and future generations and addresses the imperative
response to the African urban vortex, acknowledging of securing adequate financing and support for poor
the centrality of cities as urban pathways of national and countries who face the biggest urban challenges. It is
global development. There is ample opportunity in the up to individual stakeholder organizations, nation
framing of the Habitat III agenda for African delegates states and regional deliberations to provide the detailed
to play a leading role in doing that. evidence and experience on which the New Urban
Agenda will rest.16
UN-Habitat has laid out the following objectives for
Habitat III: For African members, Habitat III offers the scope to
refine further the commitments to participation that
• Undertake a critical review of the implementation of was agreed at Habitat I, and to slum eradication that was
the Habitat Agenda the consensus emerging from Habitat II. Habitat III has
• Identify constraints to the implementation of the three new areas of focus for debate: substantive political
goals and objectives and fiscal decentralization; holistic land-use policies
(both inter-urban and intra-urban) linked to effective
• Develop a shared perspective on human settlements planning systems and integrated human settlements
and sustainable urban development strategies that involve working with the poor to achieve
• Tackle new challenges and opportunities that have the realization of housing and service rights. African
emerged since Habitat II imperatives on these issues to be taken up in the New
Urban Agenda have a particular history and profile.
• Outline a new development agenda to achieve Positioning the continent in the global deliberations
inclusive, people-centred and sustainable urban effectively rests on deep knowledge about urban change
development and wisdom that bring to the foreground the political
• Engender a collective agreement on the role that importance of urban-rural linkages, the deep poverty of
sustainable urbanization can play to support many in African cities and the aspirations of the youth
sustainable development15 on the continent.
03 AFRICAN URBANISATION:
TRENDS AND PROSPECTS
No development policy cycle will impact Africa more

directly than this one. The clock is ticking and the next
two to three decades will define the urban transition
on the continent, not least because of the massive
expansion in the number of people living in these cities.
Africa and Asia are the two most populous world regions
and the least urbanised. The latest World Urbanization
Prospects reports that: ‘the most urbanized regions
include Northern America (82 per cent living in urban
areas in 2014), Latin America and the Caribbean (80
per cent), and Europe (73 per cent). In contrast, Africa
and Asia remain mostly rural, with 40 and 48 per cent
of their respective populations living in urban areas. All
regions are expected to urbanize further over the coming
decades but Africa and Asia are urbanizing faster
than the other regions and are projected to become Accra, Ghana. © Shutterstock
56 and 64 per cent urban, respectively, by 2050.17
Asia is expected to be predominantly urban by the mid-
2020s and Africa by circa 2035. 1.33 billion in 2050 and Africa is projected to pass
the 50 per cent urban tipping point around 2035.18
There is of course tremendous variation across Africa.
Differential Urbanisation Figure 2 segments Africa by region and depicts the level
Trends in Africa of urbanisation by country. Northern and Southern
While it is important for Africa to speak coherently to Africa are both relatively urbanised, with West and
position its view in the global debate on the new urban East Africa on the other end of the spectrum. This is
agenda, we should be weary of overgeneralisation. important because the bulk of population growth in
The number of Africa’s urban dwellers is projected to Africa will be concentrated in these two regions, which
increase from 471 million (40 per cent) in 2015 to are also the poorest in terms of GDP/capita.19
FIG U R E 1 : A CT U A L A ND P R O J E CT ED D E M O GR APH I C CH ANGE S I N AFR I CA, 1950-2050 20
56
PERCENT
URBAN
3
POPULATION (IN BILLIONS)
URBAN
1
TOTAL POP.
RURAL
19 50 19 6 0 1970 19 8 0 19 9 0 20 0 0 20 1 0 2020 203 0 20 40 20 50
50
PERCENT
URBAN
20
United Nations (2014) World Urbanization Prospects. The 2014 Revision. New York: The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Source: United Nations, 2014

AFRICA’s DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT
SOURCE:
Figure 1 puts the current level of urbanisation in a primacy coupled with small-scale urbanisation. Most
hundred year context, ranging from 1950 and projected sub-Saharan African countries are characterised by a
to 2050. These trend lines obscure the importance of lop-sided urban system. The traditional colonial capital
regional and country variance and should therefore city tends to be large and dominant in the national
be considered in relation to the disaggregated data in political economy, followed by much smaller cities
Figure 2 below. and a large array of town-like urban areas (sometimes
called peri-urban settlements). For example, the United
In addition to appreciating the enormous variety in Nations data suggest that in 2015, 9.2 per cent of the
levels and rates of urbanisation across the continent, it is urban population reside in mega cities with populations
also important to appreciate the phenomenon of urban exceeding 10 million, compared to 5.3 per cent in cities
F I G U R E 2: P ER CE NTA GE U R B A N P O P U L ATI O N PE R CO UNTRY ACR O SS AFR I CAN R E GI O NS 21
COTE % URBANISATION
D’IVORE 66.7
52.8 TUNISIA
0 - 40% 40 - 50% 50%+
ALGERIA
NIGER CHAD
LIBYA
57.8 EGYPT
MOROCCO
74.7
78.1 43.8
WESTERN
SAHARA
MALI
33.5 SUDAN
MAURITANIA 42.0 36.4
18.3
22.0
S.SUDAN
43.1 SENEGAL
28.2 BURKINA FASO ETHIOPIA
38.7
NIGERIA
GUINEA 50.9 17.5 SOMALIA
45.3 18.4
BISAU
39.5 C.A.R
SIERRA
40
LEON
53.2 53.2
UGANDA 16.4
GHANA CAMEROON
46.2 24.8 KENYA
BENIN 86.8 GABON
19.7 RWANDA
64.5 BURUNDI 11.5
CONGO 35.4
BRAZAVILLE CONGO 27.6 TANZANIA
48.9
16.0
LIBERIA 60.7
ANGOLA MALAWI
ZAMBIA 40.0 31.7
39.6 33.8
NAMIBIA 39.5
MADAGASCAR
BOTSWANA 62.9
SOUTH AFRICA 62.9 MOZAMBIQUE
ZIMBABWE
21
This figure is primarily based on: African Economic Outlook, Demographic Statistics, 2014 - http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/statistics/; and
UN-Habitat (2014). State of African Cities Report. Nairobi: UN-Habitat, p. 266.
Source: African Economic Outlook, Demographic Statistics, 2014 and UN-Habitat, 2014
between 5-10 million; 22.5 per cent in 1-5 million cities and the insertion of African cities into global
cities; 8.4 per cent in 0.5-1 million; 7.3 per cent in 300 economic and resource networks. There is also a need
000 – 500 000 cities and, most significantly, 47.3 per for much greater clarity on how to manage cities with
cent in cities smaller than 300 000 inhabitants. 1-5 million people and, even more crucially, how to
address the majority urban condition of Africa, which
In light of this, it is may be prudent to prioritise research is towns with fewer that 300,000 inhabitants. Figure
and policy that gives a better handle on how best to 3 provides a graphic illustration of the distribution of
understand the overall urban system, namely the links settlements by size.
between town and country, between small and large
FIGURE 3: AFRICAN URBAN DISTRIBUTION IN PERCENTAGE BY SETTLEMENT SIZE 22
50.0
37.5
25.0
12.5
0.0
2015 2020 2025 2030
10 million 1-5 million > 300 thousand

1-50 million 300 - 500 thousand
22
United Nations (2014) World Urbanization Prospects. The 2014 Revision. New York: The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Source: United Nations, 2014
Youthful Labour Force intersects According to the African Development Bank, 50 per
cent of Africa’s population are presently younger than
with Urbanisation 19 years of age.24
Africa’s population will continue to grow until the
end of this century whereas Asia will peak in about One of the distinctive features of Africa is that the
50 years and most other continents have already vast majority of the labour force (population between
plateaued. This demographic picture points to the 15-64) is trapped in vulnerable employment.25
fact that Africa, even now, has a youthful population Only 28 per cent of the labour force is in stable wage
and it is forecast that the continent will experience earning jobs contrasted with 63 per cent in vulnerable
a demographic dividend over the next 40 years.23 occupation. Furthermore, McKinsey Global Institute
FIGURE 4: INCOME DISTRIBUTION ACROSS CLASS LINES IN AFRICA27
0.7
0.6
0.5
Population
Income
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Poor Floating Lower-Middle Upper-Middle Rich
27
The middle of the pyramid: Dynamics of the middle class in Africa. Market Brief, April 2011. Chief Economic Complex, African Development Bank
Source: African Development Bank (AfDB), 2011.
points out that between 2000-2010, when Africa Development Bank (2011). Put directly, how will all of
experienced exceptionally robust GDP growth rates, the new entrants into the labour market be absorbed
the proportion of the labour force in vulnerable into stable jobs if the current economic growth path is
employment dropped by only 2 per cent, suggesting not radically altered? Put differently, how can the Agenda
a worrying disconnect between economic growth and 2063 goal of inclusive growth, where the potential of
formal employment creation.26 young people are unleashed, be realized if vulnerable
employment continues to be the norm in the African
This is a profound problem in light of the fact that city?
Africa’s labour force will treble between 2000-2050:
rising from 400m to 1.2bn, according to the African
FIGURE 5: SLUM INCIDENCE BY REGION IN DEVELOPING WORLD 28
NON-SLUMS
72%
SLUMS
28%
13%
25%
E. ASIA
75%
69%
87%
WESTERN ASIA
31%
NORTH AMERICA
38%
S.EAST ASIA
23%
62%
65%
77%
S.SAHARAN AFRICA
35%
LAC
SOUTHERN ASIA
SLUM INCIDENCE BY REGION IN THE WORLD

SOURCE: UN HABITAT 2012
28
Data is derived from a 2012 UN-Habitat Powerpoint presentation in possession of the authors.
Source: UN-Habitat, 2012
Income Poverty and Inequality High costs of informal service provision and the absence
of social safety nets expose low income urban households
A closely-related trend to large-scale vulnerable
to particular risk.
employment is the scale of income poverty in Africa.
Figure 4 reflects that 81.7 per cent of Africans live on If one does not have a stable or decent income, it is
less than USD4 per day, with 60.8 per cent falling below near impossible to have a decent quality of life and
the USD2 per day mark. For residents of cities, where enjoy formal housing because the routine reproductive
even the most basic needs like water and shelter must costs associated with (sub)urban living and consumer
be paid for in cash, income poverty is a major concern.
good markets are unaffordable. In light of the scale of degree of infrastructure deficits is exceptional in Africa.
vulnerable employment and income poverty, it is not In the Figure 6 there is a useful distinction between less
that surprising that, according to UN-Habitat, 61.7 per industrial versus middle-income countries, which allows
cent of urban Africans live in slums. This is much higher one to account for countries like Zambia and South
than the second-highest incidence of slum prevalence, Africa and compare like with like.
which is South Asia at 45 per cent. Figure 5 puts the
sub-Sahara Africa slum prevalence in global context.
There is a vicious cycle between poor living conditions,

limited access to education and lack of decent health,
obtaining decent work and surviving in the margins of
society. This seems to be the dominant prospect for the
hundreds of millions of young people who will enter
the labour force over the next few decades, apart from
the 61 per cent (273 million) already trapped in slum
living. Unless the proposed paradigm shift argued for in
the African Union’s Common African Position on the post-
2015 Development Agenda is substantially advanced, it is
likely that the visionary goals Agenda 2063 will not be
achieved.
Infrastructural Deficits and

Demands
Economic growth in Africa has been showing promising
signs over the past decade even when the global economy
went into recession after the 2008 financial crisis.29
However, most economists point out that the extremely
limited infrastructural footprint presents a binding
constraint to continued and high growth. Most acute is
the energy deficit, but this is reinforced by shortfalls in
mobility infrastructures, water systems, ICT cabling and
Abidjan, Ivory Coast. © Shutterstock
so on. Again, comparative data demonstrates that the
FIGURE 6: INFRASTRUCTURE ENDOWMENTS FOR AFRICAN LICS/MICS 30

COMPARED TO OTHER GLOBAL REGIONS 31
700
Paved-road density Total road density Fixed-line density
600 Mobile density Internet density Power generation capacity

Electricity coverage Improved water Improved sanitation
500
400
300
200
100
0
Africa Others Africa Others
LICs MICs
30
In 2011, the World Bank classified countries by income groups as follows: low income, USD1,025 or less; lower middle income, USD1,026 - USD4,035; upper middle income,
USD4,036 - USD12,475; and high income, USD12,476 or more.
AfDB [African Development Bank] (2013) An Integrated Approach to Infrastructure Provision in Africa. Tunis: AfDB.
31
Source: AfDB, 2013
Note: Road density is measured in kilometres per 100 square kilometres of arable land; telephone density in lines per thousand population;
generation capacity in megawatts per million population and electricity, water, and sanitation coverage in percentage of population.
What sets Africa apart is that the relatively small size of a budget of no more than USD180 per month; urban
national economies, restricted middle class and limited households are only about USD100 per month better
tax base - this thin economic base and weak associated off than rural households,33 but urbanites typically have
fiscal and land regulatory regimes make its cities a to pay cash for all their basic needs, including food.
generally less attractive proposition for international
infrastructure investors. This is compounded by the fact This finding reminds us that, not only is there
that the infrastructure financing opportunities in other insufficient investment in infrastructure to sustain
world regions are much larger than Africa’s needs.32 economic productive capacity and growth, but even if
In other words, infrastructure capital has options for the available pot was equitably shared between middle-
where to invest, especially since mature OECD markets class imperatives and ensuring access to basic services for
are now in need of massive infrastructure replacements the poor, there is little prospect of the latter happening
and retrofits to meet more stringent environmental due to such low rates of return on investment in narrow
standards. economic terms. As long as we will see GDP/capita levels
below the USD2000 mark, coupled with high income
The general deficit in infrastructure capacity, combined inequality, we can be sure that the vast majority of urban
with acute financing challenges create a situation in African people cannot be serviced through conventional
which there is tremendous pressure on the existing infrastructure investment approaches. Most African
infrastructure investment budgets in terms of who countries will have to figure out a different approach
and what it will prioritise and service. Private sector to ensure that the basic needs of their citizens are met
players are increasingly international actors who can whilst creating the infrastructural platforms for growth.
promise major economic investments such as ports, An important part of this equation is the unforeseeable
airports, trunk roads and office blocks and they gain impacts of climate variability and numerous other
access to political decision makers and tend to get to environmental threats.
the front of the development approval queue. These
ad hoc, often physically and institutionally ringfenced Urban Ecosystems and
forms of development, impact negatively on resources
to address large-scale slum living conditions and as the Climate Change
urban population grows, the needs and financing gaps In many African cities, inequality is not simply driven
get ever larger. It is against these trends that the sobering by income or employment. Inequality is exacerbated
conclusion of the World Bank research should be by factors such as unequal access to robust or safe
considered: ‘…affordability may be a barrier to further infrastructure and natural resources. For many residents
expansion of access. Most African households live on of small towns who depend on the integrity of untreated
very modest budgets and spend more than half of their water, urban expansion without significant improvement
resources on food. The average African household has in ecosystem management poses a threat to life and
well-being. Across Africa, cities with weak land use and in effective and democratic urban governance and
traffic regulation and under-capacitated natural resource management. One of the drivers of this is the limited
management put poor urban populations at risk, not just implementation of national decentralisation programmes
to major events associated with climate change but also and ambiguity over the urban responsibilities of central
everyday exposures to air, water and soil pollutants.34 and local governments. The gap in accountability in
settlement management is further complicated by
Due in part to Africa’s resource curse35 access to, hybrid and overlapping governance systems, reflected
and the benefits derived from, its resources often most acutely in land-use and tenure arrangements.39
perpetuate inequality. For Africa, the nexus between
the environmental crisis, the global economy and the Put differently, in the absence of cadastres that can
second urbanisation wave36 exacerbate the exposure of all render land-use transparent and predictable, a plurality
Africans to environmental risks associated with resource of informal power dynamics have emerged in African
extraction and depletion as raw materials are exported cities that determine how land is used, serviced (or
for urban consumption elsewhere. African cities are not not), rented out, profited from and made available
simply the recipients of global environmental change and for coherent and systematic planning and regulation.
risk but depending on how they are mismanaged they Informal land and service-based power dynamics knit
can also generate ecosystem instability and degradation. together elected politicians in loose coalitions with local
A key threat to urban resilience is sprawl and unchecked strong men who rely on force, traditional authority
land use cover change that ignores known and predicted status or dominance of political parties to exert control.
hazards and/or encroaches on sensitive areas. Figure In the absence of strong local democratic associations it
7 shows that, although there are significant protected is almost impossible to break the power of these de facto
areas, there are urban hot spots especially in sensitive property and commodity mafias.
lakeside, riverine and coastal areas that will have their
ecological integrity decimated by the growth of large It is difficult to unravel and reform these practices
cities over the next two decades. since land use in particular has been subjected to
such dynamics of elite control over decades. There are
often vested interests that operate beyond democratic
Social Dynamics of Urbanisation requirements for accountability and transparency.
Intensifying informalisation, slum living and divided Governance reform is lagging far behind the ideals of
cities constitute a recipe for social conflict, especially democratic decentralisation as codified in the Habitat
as the increasingly youthful population increase their Agenda of 1996, the African Charter on the Values
expectations through globalised consumer cultures and and Principles of Decentralisation, Local Governance
social media.38 Most African urban areas are lacking and Local Development, or the aspirations of Agenda
FIGURE 7: PROJECTED LAND USE COVER CHANGE RELATIVE TO PROTECTED AREAS 37
37
Derived from: Pieterse, E. (2011) Recasting urban sustainability in the South, Development, 54(3): 309-316.
Source: Seto, Gunerap, Parnell and Luasa, in press

2063 as noted above. Linkages between corrupted and needs of these territories. National governments perceive
unregulated land regulation and formal tax collection these conditions as justification for continued national
capacity also erode opportunities for public interest control and management of urban areas, especially
value capture and can preclude the generation of local strategic nodes such as capital cities or strategically-
capital to address the urban problems already identified. located secondary cities. The net effect is that there is no
A number of recent studies underscore that there is coherent strategy or investment programme to address
tremendous potential to use well-crafted regulations urban management imperatives across the diverse needs
to connect land value appreciation and infrastructure of the national settlement/urban system.
investment to generate new revenue sources to finance
urban investments.40
The flipside of weak governance is often disempowered

civil society interests. Most African cities are endowed with
dense social systems, especially since most households
need to insert themselves into multiple networks and
social settings to gain strategic information to stay in the
‘game’ of survival and expansion of livelihood options.41
However, these institutions tend to stand apart
from formal political institutions or overt political
mobilisation because of the potential costs involved.
Practically, this means that the incredibly rich seam
of social capital does not get mobilised for effective
democratic urban governance and management.
In summary, extraordinarily high levels of poverty and

systemic neglect mark African urban areas. Into this
breach, urban households invest an inordinate amount
of time, energy and resources to activate informal systems
of service provision to meet their daily needs.42 Due to
the predominance of informal economic life, combined
with thin local institutional systems, the tax base for
Rabat, Morocco. © Philip Lange/Shutterstock
urban investment is wholly inadequate to meet the vast
04 WHAT DOES SUSTAINABLE URBAN
DEVELOPMENT MEAN FOR AFRICA?
This governance failure, is not as yet, seen as a major In this carefully-worded formulation, attention is being
political concern or risk. To date, little has happened to paid to the importance of local solutions for local
political elites if urban areas continue to underperform problems but the reality is that many of the drivers
or fail their citizens. Disease outbreaks such as Ebola, that shape unsustainable patterns of urbanisation
social unrest, and or rising terror threats may shift the go well beyond the local and national content and
current middle-class disregard for the public good in into the international systems of governance, trade
African cities. and regulation. This agenda, organised around the
meta themes of shelter for all and sustainable human
The menu of urban policy reforms adopted by all settlements, become codified in the reporting which all
governments present in Istanbul at Habitat II in 1996 to governments are expected to do in the preparations for
achieve sustainable urban development was summarised Habitat III. The country reports that were submitted
in the Habitat Agenda Declaration: in 2014 had to cover seven themes (listed below) and
We, the Heads of State or Government […] take provide evidence that was retrospective and, ideally, this
this opportunity to endorse the universal goals of analysis can also feed into the expectations of the New
ensuring adequate shelter for all and making human Urban Agenda that is to be formulated.
settlements safer, healthier and more liveable, Seven themes for country reports for Habitat III
equitable, sustainable and productive. […] We
shall intensify our efforts to eradicate poverty and • Urban demographic issues and challenges
discrimination, to promote and protect all human
• Land and urban planning
rights and fundamental freedoms for all, and to
provide for basic needs, such as education, nutrition • Environment and urbanization
and life-span health care services, and, especially, • Urban governance and legislation
adequate shelter for all. To this end, we commit
ourselves to improving the living conditions in • Urban economy
human settlements in ways that are consonant with • Housing and basic services
local needs and realities, and we acknowledge the
• Indicators
need to address the global, economic, social and
environmental trends to ensure the creation of better
living environments for all people.
These reports are essentially baseline overviews that • Should substantive planning, regulation and taxation
may or may not unlock deep and meaningful debate powers be devolved to local authorities if there is a
at a country and city level. A lot depends on the level deficit of skills?
of investment African governments have put into the
• Should mall-centred suburban development patterns
establishment of active National Urban Policy Forums
where the range of stakeholders debate and refine the be allowed when most African cities are already
contents and analysis of the country reports. However, suffering the cost and pollution problems associated
there is a deeper problem. Due to the formal nature of with uncontrolled sprawl?
these processes and the categories and sub-categories • Should foreign land and infrastructure investment
that must be used in preparing these reports, it be curtailed, regulated, taxed or promoted and
becomes almost impossible to break conceptually with incentivised?
sectoral silos such as slum upgrading, public transport
and public health and it is not feasible to address the None of these questions has an easy or definitive
wicked problems that affect the peculiar dynamics of answer but they go to the heart of the debates that
urbanisation in Africa as elaborated before. should be raging at national, local and regional forums
if an African-centric and resonant paradigm of urban
To illustrate, here are a number of difficult questions development is going to evolve. In order to open up
that confront all African countries, cities, leaders and a space for real discussions about the real challenges
residents that get obscured when the checklist of the associated with urbanisation in Africa, we now explore
formal reporting process is addressed: a more grounded conceptual framework to analyse
and debate the continent’s unique urban management
• Should new town property developments aimed at imperatives with an eye on an appropriate institutional
attracting international capital and elites be allowed architecture suited to optimise its urban future. These
if the majority of the population will never afford to are issues that must be raised by Africans in the Habitat
live there, and these schemes could suck completely III process.
dry what little public investment resources there are?
• Should basic services such as water, sanitation and
energy be provided on a subsidised basis so that
everyone can benefit in the short- and medium-term
even if it means there are not resources available
to invest in higher-order infrastructures such as
broadband, bus rapid-transit systems and convention
centres?
05 CONCEPTUAL FRAME: SUSTAINABLE
URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA
It is impossible to argue with the normative framing of At the moment, most African countries are arguably
sustainable urban development as set out in the Habitat fixated on GDP growth in any form or shape, even if
Agenda. However, the real challenge is to figure out it does not necessarily generate large numbers of new
how to implement this amidst the series of interlocking jobs or is environmentally damaging. The high rates
dynamics of distorted urbanisation across Africa. of poverty and the small revenue coffers of African
This section provides a potential way of thinking and governments drive this pattern. The problem of limited
imagining to implement sustainable urban development revenue is of course part of a much larger and complex
in Africa.43 set of issues pertaining to the legacy effects of short-
and wrong-sighted structural adjustment policies that
Macro Development Frame dominated public policy preferences for more than two
decades since the 1980s. However, a narrow fixation on
(Global, Continental & National) GDP growth is not good enough and will in the long
The starting point is the macro development imperative run undermine Africa’s larger ambitions as encapsulated
that must be realised at multiple scales because cities are in the Agenda 2063 vision.
shaped by global, regional and national as well as local
forces. The New Urban Agenda outlines the global policy Inclusive growth points to the imperative of establishing
ambitions for cities, the 2063 Agenda covers a regional economic growth trajectories that are highly labour
perspective but it is the national scale that is often pivotal absorptive and afford access to decent work. This is a
in determining the future of cities and regions as well particularly difficult objective in a context of slow growth
as their integration with their rural hinterlands. This is that is often decoupled from intensive job creation,
generally true but there are also important exceptions. except of course for the fast-growing Asian economies.
Certain cities and regions, especially ones central to However, for most African countries the difficulties are
extractive economies, are inserted into globalised value greater because national economies tend to be small
chains that give the urban government a particularly and are adversely inserted into globalised value chains
strategic positioning. Figure 8 provides a diagrammatic where the terms of exchange are not favourable, which
illustration that national development strategies need denotes their limited bargaining power. Furthermore,
to pursue simultaneously inclusive growth, resilient these economies are often overly reliant on a single
growth, human development and generalised well-being commodity, such as oil or diamonds, which places the
as manifest in liveable communities and settlements. national fiscus at continual risk. It is, therefore, vital
FIGURE 8: AFRICA’S MACRO DEVELOPMENT FRAME (CONTINENTAL AND NATIONAL)44
HUMAN
DEVELOPMENT
IMPROVEMENT
Liv
e
h
ab
wt
ilit
gro
& y
ive
W
lus
ell
Inc
be
ing
CO2 REDUCTION
GDP GROWTH & RESOURCE
Resilient growth EFFICIENCY
Source: Recasting Urban Sustainability in the South, 2011
that African governments and citizens debate how these Resilient growth refers to the growing debate on the
structural obstacles can be overcome in a context of a green economy as the necessary gateway to a low-carbon
commitment to greater regionalism, intra-regional trade and resource-efficient future.45 This imperative refers
and endogenous industrialisation to supply the goods to the need to change the nature of both production
and services of the domestic populations. Cities can kick and consumption so to radically reduce the harmful
start these debates and efforts need to be given pride of emissions associated with economic churn and, more
place in these debates. important, delink each unit of economic output from
non-renewable resource inputs.46
These are tough requirements for African economies are not yet locked into unsustainable pathways.47
that are predominantly reliant on extractives for Since so many economic systems need to still be
trade and foreign exchange. Yet, as the world inches constructed, there is an unprecedented opportunity
towards a global carbon trading and taxation regime to use the massive infrastructure-build imperative in
and more stringent environmental standards linked African cities and regions as a catalyst for embedding the
to trade agreements, future economic competitiveness green economy.48 However, this opportunity will only be
will depend on getting this right. The potential optimised if there is a profound shift in the imagination
advantage for African countries of the new post-2015 of African elites so that they stop regarding the
focus on resilience is that the relatively low levels established Northern model of urbanism as what needs
of economic development means that these systems to be transplanted into Africa as a badge of modernity.
Neither inclusive nor resilient growth is possible if

Africa’s human potential remains untapped and under-
invested. Education and health are the two most
important drivers of human capital formation, along
with social safety nets as the economy of a country
expands.49 The skills and knowledge of the urban
workforce are a central determinant of the dynamism
and long-term durability of growth.
However, optimally functioning schools and health

systems are highly dependent on the quality of the
social and public fabric where they are embedded. If
a neighbourhood is unsafe, wracked by social conflicts
and unhealthy public environments, it is highly unlikely
that public institutions will function effectively. It
is, therefore, imperative to understand that national
human development goals must be connected to a
holistic approach of strengthening education, health
and welfare institutions within the community contexts
where they are nested.
People walk and cycle along promenade on “Golden Mile”

beach front in Durban, South Africa.
© lcswart / Shutterstock
There is a lot to discuss and clarify about how these • Accelerate economic development through strategic
imperatives can be pursued at community level. We need infrastructure investments (especially energy
a proliferation of models and experiments to conduct and mobility), appropriate planning regulations,
area-based planning and management that can optimise institutional coordination and the provision of useful
human capital investments and foster better social information
protection. Many Africans, exposed to the uncertainties
of the urban economy, still have had to depend on rural Given the complexity of the variables at play in each of
connections as a safety net in times of hardship and for these fields of governance, and the plurality of actors
their old age. implicated, every urban government must be given
the right and support to formulate long-term strategic
It is not easy or obvious how a country or city decides action plans that explain how these imperatives will
on the most optimum policy mix to achieve inclusive be addressed. These long-term frameworks should
and resilient growth along with greater liveability become the linchpin for negotiations about the role of
simultaneously. However, unless policy options and urban governments in the national development effort
investment choices are evaluated in terms of the and associated questions about sensible devolution of
inevitable tensions between these imperatives, it is powers, functions and the concomitant fiscal powers.
impossible to achieve transformative development.
They can also be the basis for rolling engagements with
organised civil society, the private sector and citizens.
From Macro to Urban Most important, locating urban development in a
An explicit and intelligent place-based lens on public wider frame will compel urban leaders (and national
investment can greatly improve the chances of African governments where they are the dominant public sector
countries finding the most appropriate balance or players) to be more explicit about the rationale behind
coordination between the imperatives of inclusive their investment strategies.
growth, resilient growth and human wellbeing.
Figure 9 provides an illustration of a hierarchy of nested
There are three over-arching considerations that must investments that would make sense in a typical African
inform and anchor democratic debates about how best setting marked by high levels of residential and economic
to develop and manage African cities and towns: informality combined with low levels of income per
capita. The logic behind this hierarchy is that the basic
• Optimise urban form to become appropriately needs of all urban residents must be the number one
dense,50 green and just priority over everything else and this goes to the heart of
• Calibrate urban infrastructure networks and systems fundamental well-being and dignity.51
to ensure a sustainable metabolic flow of money,
resources, goods, services, people and data
FIGURE 9: CONCEPTUAL HIERARCHY OF INVESTMENT PRIORITIES
BASIC SERVICES
(ENERGY, WATER, SANITATION AND WASTE)
EDUCATION AND HEALTH
PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE
AND TRANSPORT
ECONOMIC
INFRASTRUCTURE
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
SHELTER
Source: Authors own tabulation
This is followed by key investments to optimise the essential that the public realm (the street and key social
capabilities of all residents. In a knowledge-driven and mobility nodes) is optimised as a social space,
globalised economy, this imperative is becoming economic arteries and primary cultural domain.52
more important if people are to access employment, If this is combined with a concerted public transport and
which in turn is the fundamental driver of household mobility strategy, it can unlock the profound potential
wellbeing and social mobility. Since the majority of all cities and towns. In this sense the predominantly
of African urban dwellers live in slums which are informal economic practices in large swathes of African
extremely dense, and marked by over-crowding, it is cities can be used as a resource and optimised.
Building on top of an activated public realm is a In this schema, shelter investments come last. This is
commitment to optimise logistical infrastructures obviously contrary to the way in which the urban
that can enhance and diversify urban economic life. development agenda was framed in 1996 at Habitat I or
It is vital to underscore that a holistic understanding affirmed with the focus on slums at Habitat II. However,
of the economy is critical. Informal economies and this approach does not to diminish the importance of
everyday livelihood practices are the dominant modes of consolidating the right to housing, but rather confirms
economic life in most sub-Saharan African cities. that urban majorities need support with the enabling
armatures of urban life whilst they take care of the
Furthermore, the formal and informal systems are shelter needs, even if in a makeshift manner.
inter-dependent and will have to grow in tandem for
some time to come given Africa’s structural legacy of The Latin American and Asian contexts have
economic underdevelopment and limited education demonstrated that improvements in the public realm
opportunities. Resolving the formal informal dichotomy prove much more important to the wellbeing and
is less important than preventing fiscal leakage and livelihoods of poor households than starting off with
corruption and fostering overall urban system legibility public housing provision. It all boils down to how one
and transparency. can optimise the return on investment of every cent
spent in the urban realm.
After the economy, ecosystem services must be
addressed. As intimated in the Agenda 2063 discussion
document, blue and green economic sectors can become Urban Service Delivery Strategies
the fundamental underpinning of the African economy and Investment Portfolios
over the next few decades. This potential will only be It is self-evident that local authorities or national
harnessed if local authorities and citizen realise that the departments cannot address the intractable challenges
restoration and protection of natural ecosystem services of African cities on their own. As invoked by the early
is vital to their well-being, a sense of community and iterations of the Habitat Agenda, they have to work
the overall quality of life of the urban system as a whole. through partnerships with the private sector and civil
Most importantly, large numbers of public works society to ensure both legitimacy for their investment
opportunities can be shaped around ecosystem services choices and synergy between the disparate actions across
restoration, which is the missing conveyor belt that these sectors.53 Local authorities also have to invest in the
African urban economies need to move the youth into empowerment of these sectors so that the engagement
the labour market and entrepreneurship. can be substantive and meaningful.
Building on this prescript of the Habitat Agenda, it

FIGURE 10: EVALUATION CRITERIA FOR
is important to become more specific. In light of the DECIDING LEVEL OF SERVICES
proposed investment hierarchy discussed above, and
the need to calibrate investments to achieve optimal
sequencing and cumulative impact, it is important to
propose how this can be done.
At the urban scale, each local authority must produce AFFORDABILITY

a clear service delivery model that explains how the
service will be rendered and maintained; the standard
of the service; the cost of the service in relation to a
given standard; the income, expenditure and cross- ACCESS
subsidisation of the service to attain the standard and
progressively, universal coverage. Developing a service
delivery model that is made transparent will require
intense discussion between the all spheres of government, QUALITY
particularly local government and society.54 To avoid elite
capture or narrow growth assumptions, it is important
to establish three fundamental criteria for negotiations
about the service delivery model: affordability, quality
and universal access. (See Figure 10)
In light of the extent of urban poverty, vulnerability and service extension are factored into the overall service
low incomes, it is imperative that a given city’s service delivery model. The debates on affordability and
delivery model address how the affordability criteria access will compel an honest engagement with the vast
will be met in the short and long-term. However, a informal systems of delivery that step into the breach in
singular focus on affordability could generate a situation most African cities where the state is yet to deliver and
where the local authority abdicates responsibility for to the selection of the most appropriate technologies for
considering the quality of the service and allow a range universal coverage. There is now a considerable body
of private actors to deliver the service with no minimum of evidence that coming to terms with the so-called
standards, contract enforcement or opportunities for informal systems of service delivery is vital to improve
recourse. access to basic services progressively and to establish a
viable fiscal model.
To avoid this, it is important to clarify what the expected
quality of a service or piece of infrastructure will be. Any long-term agenda to consolidate sustainable urban
Again, the Latin American experience is instructive. development in Africa will have to address the governance
The Colombian cities that have seen a convincing and institutional questions of how to knit together the
turnaround in fortunes during the past two decades have formal, private and informal private systems in ways
all taken quality considerations very seriously, especially which grow the local economy, enhance livelihoods
in their most deprived areas. Africa can learn from the and wellbeing and establish an efficient urban form and
multiplier benefits of this approach. metabolism. This can be made more practical through
city- and neighbourhood-level deliberations about
However, in light of the massive service and infrastructure appropriate service delivery standards and modalities.
deficits in much of sub-Saharan Africa, it is equally Doing this assumes there is a coherent national and
important to spell out when all urban residents will gain local institutional architecture to deliberate upon and
access to a given a service and how these processes of practice effective urban management.
06 INSTITUTIONAL ARCHITECTURE TO
OPTIMISE AFRICA’S URBAN FUTURE
It is obvious that those who live in and manage African to solving national and city challenges. In fact, even
cities need to drive the global conversation about what though it might appear as if there is a natural hierarchy
sustainable urban development means in practice. of national urban policies shaping local actions, in most
Furthermore, the real-life innovations to achieve contexts it is more likely and desirable that there is a
sustainable urbanism will come from the ground and dynamic interplay between national indicative policies
cascade upwards. Technocratic top-down programmes and locally defined priorities that feed into the national
and solutions will not work because each city and town is agenda.
unique and will need to draw on the collective resources
of all actors affected to produce fit-for-purpose reforms.
That said, local innovations become a lot easier if there
is a coherent and high profile national programme
of deliberation and action to drive systematic urban
transformation.
National governments have substantial political,

institutional and fiscal resources that can stimulate and
enable urban innovation. In this section we summarise
the minimum elements of a national urban policy
system, led by national governments in close partnership
with the relevant local government association, civil
society organisations, the private sector and knowledge
institutions. The following suite of institutions is a
necessary, but not sufficient, condition for effective
urban management and transformation.
Local action, experimentation and learning that

is buttressed by a broader national system that is
sensitive to the imperatives of the changes ushered
Kigali, Rwanda. © Shutterstock
in by urbanisation and urban growth will contribute
National Urban Policy Thus, for African countries marked by complex

interdependencies between the formal and informal
During the past decade, the importance of explicit
economies, it is particularly important to catalogue and
National Urban Policies have strongly come to the fore55
analyse the place-based dynamics of the local, national
and now forms part of the reporting by member states of
and regional economy. It can make all the difference
the United Nations in the lead up to Habitat III. At its
between modest and robust economic growth.
core, these policies seek to understand and manage urban
growth and decline across the national territory with Large urban agglomerations like the Gauteng city-
an eye on cross-border dynamics and processes. In this region, the greater Cairo-Alexandra conurbation and
sense they are fundamentally data-driven and evidence- the West African belt from Abidjan to Accra (taking
based. This form of global reporting requires national in Lagos of course) all point to the regional dynamics
statistical agencies to be centrally involved in order to of Africa’s primary economic hubs. Put differently,
progressively improve a dynamic spatial perspective of National Urban Policies can demonstrate how primary
key national trends with regard to the economy, people, economic hubs are in fact the springboards for the larger
landscape, infrastructure, environment and the flows African regional integration project promoted in Agenda
of goods and services. These policies are rooted in the 2063. On the other hand, these policies could also raise
desire of governments to adopt a territorial approach in awareness about how large metropolitan centres in the
national and local planning, especially since urban and national economy connect with secondary cities and
rural economies and environments are so intertwined. rural economies through a multiplicity of connections
and interdependencies.
New policy insights on the spatial dynamics of economic
development — referred to as agglomeration dynamics It is in this regard that the African Union and Regional
in the 2009 World Development Report — demonstrate Economic Communities will have to work closely with
how important place dynamics are in an increasingly member states because the cross-border city-regional
globalised economy premised on knowledge and the economies will be the backbone of the African sub-
clustering of talent and markets.56 To ensure effective regions. More to the point, the new industrial strategy
and targeted national development, it is essential to for Africa to realise the goals of Agenda 2063 will have
understand the unique agglomeration dynamics of all to be anchored spatially in these primary economic hubs
economic sectors, especially the globally-organised value that require cross-border coordination and synergy.
chains that criss-cross all dimensions of the modern National Urban Policies will be useful to translate these
economy. Critically, we now know that these territorial agendas into the national context and back-up into the
dynamics are not unique to the formal economy but sub-regional and continental forums.
play an equally vital role in informal and criminal
economies.57
Idanre Town in Ondo state, Nigeria. © Shutterstock
On the basis of such a differentiated understanding of often makes sense to pursue substantive functional and
the national territory, National Urban Policies create a fiscal decentralisation for metropolitan areas and to a
national consensus for an appropriately differentiated lesser extent, secondary cities. Ideally, National Urban
model of urban governance and management. In other Policies should spell out the rationale for staggered
words, in most African countries it is inappropriate or differentiated decentralisation as institutional
to expect small towns with micro-economies and capabilities of local authorities expand. For these policies
populations below 50,000 to look and operate like a to make an impact, they should set out and monitor
secondary city or a metropolitan hub. National and the implementation of a systematic fiscal and legislative
provincial or district governments have to play a far reform agenda.
more active role in these smaller geographies, whereas it
Legislative Reform Agenda Decentralisation Support

The Planning Sustainable Cities global report of Programme
UN-Habitat established that post-independence Decentralisation has been on the lips of policy makers
Africa has not pursued urban planning and land-use at least since the early 1990s. With the momentum
reform with enough vigour.58 In fact, much of Africa established by the intensified commitment to
remains wedded to culturally-inappropriate and out- democratic decentralisation in the Habitat Declaration,
dated planning laws and associated town planning and many African governments have paid lip service to
zoning schemes. However, this does not only apply to decentralisation but the implementation has been
urban planning. Sectoral infrastructure planning and disappointing. A number of studies confirm that most
regulation such as transport, energy, waste management sub-Saharan African countries have a poor track record
suffer from similar problems. Engineering norms and in implementing full-blown decentralisation with a
standards that hark back to the colonial era and/or the few exceptions, the most notable being South Africa.
European context are taken for granted and serve as the In the past decade, as multi-party democracy has taken
basis of both investment and under-investment. root, the growth of opposition political parties in
At one level this is inappropriate due to affordability large cities has seemingly further undermined national
challenges as explained before. On another level, the governments appetite for full decentralisation. One of
old-style assumptions and practices come from an era the most remarked on trends in the recent past is that,
that failed to understand social and environmental in many key African cities, opposition political parties
externalities such as pollution. Thus, the new urban have either come into office as the majority party or
paradigm that promotes greater urban compaction, represent a sizeable opposition.60
public infrastructure and participatory slum upgrading To date, there has not been a sufficiently nuanced
as invoked by AMCHUD59 will never come to pass unless discussion on democratic decentralisation that is
there is substantial legislative reform to reorient key informed by a strategic inter-governmental and inter-
sectors of the built environment but, most important, sectoral approach to urban development. The principle
to enable more integrated modalities of investment of subsidiarity is important but it would be absurd to
and urban management. The institutional linchpin of treat large and small urban centres in the same manner.
an effective national urban management system must
be local government. It is essential that legislative Where local authorities have no tax base, small
reform promotes an appropriate and substantive institutional footprints and limited planning and
decentralisation agenda. regulatory capacity, it makes complete sense for national
governments and regional governments to play an active
role in supporting and managing the area to ensure that It should be recognised that decentralisation must be
basic universal rights are met. However, in larger cities linked to specific institutional capabilities at the local
that require on-the-ground intelligence and institutional level that will ensure state legitimacy such as law, finance
reach, it is essential that decentralisation reforms are and skills. Figure 11 provides an illustrative overview of
completed to ensure effective urban management. the key institutional building blocks that need to be in
place for effective and adaptive urban management at
The norms and guidelines for democratic decentralisation the metropolitan scale. This is based on the conceptual
published by UN-Habitat in 2007 remain as salient as approach discussed in Section 5. In other words, it is
ever.61 In most African contexts, achieving this level of assumed that urban governments must take the lead
decentralisation is not about the unbundling of national in formulating a long-term vision and evidence-based
competencies but improving currently inadequate local strategy for the territory in a participatory and inclusive
state capacity. manner. This long-term agenda, focused on systemic
Significantly, in the past year there has been major change to establish a dynamic trajectory towards
progress at a pan-African level to establish a more sustainable urban development, must be broken down
favourable political climate for decentralisation in line into smaller chunks of planning that can shape the short-
with the Guidelines for Democratic Decentralisation. In and medium-term priorities of elected local authorities
June 2014, the African Union’s gathering of the Heads of that need to also adopt term-of-office plans. This
State and Government of the Union adopted an African strategic model seeks to harness the investment capital
Charter on values and principles of decentralization, associated with major infrastructure sectors but roots
local governance and local development.62 This has it in a strong regional spatial development framework,
brought the pan-African policy environment in line which in turn will ensure the necessary connections are
with global norms. At the same conference, the Heads made between infrastructure and land-use management.
of State and Government also approved the creation of Every aspect of this illustrative framework can be made
the High Council of Local Governments as an African transparent, participatory and adaptive. There is no
Union institution. Its purpose is to reflect the voice of need for blueprint planning or closed-door deal making.
local governments in the deliberations of the Union.
These two decisions are providing a new impetus for
decentralisation and provide an excellent basis for
driving reform across the continent.
FIGURE 11: INSTITUTIONAL ELEMENTS OF DECENTRALISED URBAN MANAGEMENT
Growth management
Strategy (20yrs)
Integrated Development
Integrated Infrastructure Plan (term of office)
Plan (10yrs) Spatial Development
Framework (10 - 40yrs)
INTEGRATED WASTE MANAGEMENT PLAN
CATCHMENT MANAGEMENT PLAN

INTEGRATED TRANSPORT PLAN
WATER SERVICES DEV. PLAN
Priority Projects to effect

Spatial Transformaion
ENERGY PLAN
Rolling Regulatory
Medium-term income & Reform
expenditure framework
INFRASTRUCTURE LIFECYCLE
ASSET MANAGEMENT PLAN
Source: Adapted from Draft Integrated Urban Development Framework, South Africa63
It is important that the national decentralisation support and informal economies, and tied up with critical
programme is based on a commitment to empower local infrastructure investments, but always situated within a
authorities to execute effective strategic management that larger spatial development perspective. The investments
can engage with long-term trends. Growth management for the term of office integrated development plan
strategies force urban governments to take a long-term must then be derived from these larger policy agendas.
view, based on rigorous economic analysis of the formal Furthermore, it then becomes possible to identify
flagship projects that a mayor and other political All African countries have national Research and
leaders can champion without undermining the long- Development (R&D) policies that seek to foster
term trajectory for the city. It creates the possibility of national innovation systems. The time has come
overcoming the perianal problem of short-termism that to overhaul these research systems to adopt a more
stem from delivery imperatives of electoral cycles. place-based understanding of economic development,
innovation milieus, and strategic intermediation so
A lot of national support and investment will be required that innovators can connect with policy makers, users
to migrate to this kind of approach. It will have to be and investors. Diverse city-based economies should
designed in close collaboration with the national local become the primary focal point of R&D institutional
association, municipal trade unions, traditional leaders, investment in close collaboration with national and
key urban investors and civil society organisations. regional universities. It will be essential to elevate the
However, whatever is agreed upon in a given country role of design within the larger built-environment
must have a sound financial component. This speaks to disciplines and professions because these are best placed
the importance of aligning the national fiscal strategy to foster integrated problem-solving research and
with the agenda of empowering local government. experimentation. The quicker African governments can
empower their scientists, professionals and innovators
Research and Development System to get to work on the future sustainable African city,
to Underpin Urban Innovation the quicker African economies will become globally
competitive. There is obviously enormous scope to
There can be little doubt that it will take an
establish regional and continental cooperation on the
extraordinary amount of political will, policy clarity,
various issues that require R&D. UN-Habitat, AfDB,
research, experimentation and resources to address the
UNECA and AUC could cooperate to build this system
vast development challenges that beset most African
as an outcome of Habitat III.
cities and towns. Furthermore, if the goal is not just
to ameliorate basic needs but also to unleash creative
potential and energy, the knowledge requirements are Monitoring, Evaluation and
even greater. At the moment, research investments Learning system
seem to be restricted to the private sector, focussed The rich and the poor, the public and private sectors,
on providing service delivery and real estate solutions professionals and lay people are inextricably bound
that are usually inappropriate for most African urban together in Africa’s cities. Deep urban governance
settings. However, in the absence of alternative research reform as suggested in this report creates the appropriate
and evidence, these perspectives often get traction at mechanisms for deliberation, moderated conflict,
enormous cost to the city and country. cooperation, co-production and mutual learning so that
the best possible decisions are taken in the development

of cities. However, since the current system favours
certain interests and marginalises the powerless, it is
important to create a more level playing field that can
also enhance accountable and responsive government.
A combination of increasingly-affordable mobile

telephony, digital maps, the proliferation of bespoke
applications and cultures of crowd-sourcing create
ideal conditions for social learning. A key tenet of
new public management reforms of the 1990s was an
obsession with targets and indicators. This culture lives
on in the ongoing proliferation of composite indices
such as the Resilient Index that was canvassed at the
last World Urban Forum among many others. There
is a place for these measures and the high level metrics
of the Sustainability Development Goal, but it is more Harare, Zimbabwe. © Ulrich Mueller Shutterstock
important to identify what is meaningful for a local

community and city and to track the performance of In summary, if African governments are going to utilise
the government and its partners in relation to those the Habitat III preparatory processes effectively, it is
priorities. vital that each country creates a national debate on what
the national institutional system for effective urban
In this regard the turn to community enumeration governance and management should look like. This
and Google maps by various urban social movements section outlined some of the essential ingredients of
offers an opportunity to connect official monitoring and such a system as a provocation or resource for reflection
indicators with community-driven processes to improve and debate. Each country will adopt its own approach,
the reach and quality of service delivery. To have durable one which may or may not include these elements, but
impact, however, the process and knowledge generated the point is that the global discussion around Habitat
through these mechanisms need to feed into a variety III offers an opportunity for Africans to bring greater
of forums where diverse urban actors come together to coherence to national and local processes to improve
deliberate and act in concert. Through demand-driven urban performance.
monitoring of performance, cultures of responsiveness,
excellence and continuous improvement can be
established.
Aerial view of the city of Addis Ababa,Ethiopia. © Shutterstock

07 NEXT STEPS
View of city center of Cairo, Egypt.© Leonid Andronov/ Shutterstock
Preparations for Habitat III are well on their way. In Other continental processes such as the AfriCities
2014 African Member States compiled country reports Summit 7 in December 2015 will serve as convening
in the run up to the first Prep Comm in New York in moments where the final components of the African
September. A refined version of these reports are currently Urban Agenda can be agreed before the final Prep
underway in order to be presented at the 25th Governing Comm meeting and Habitat III itself. These all need
Council and Prep Comm II in Nairobi in April 2015. to be informed by regional preparation processes or
This will lay the foundation for the debates that are conferences designed to enable participation in such
necessary to formulate an unified African perspective processes. It is hoped that, on the back of local and
in the three potentially paradigm shifting processes, country debates informed by this background report,
the finalization of the Sustainable Development Goal Africa’s preparations will become more substantive and
processes due to be finalised in September 2015, the urgent.
Paris COP meeting in December 2015 and Habitat III
in Quito in October 2016.
08 CONCLUSION
Africa’s urban transition holds the key to the broader management and urban governance. It is also in these
transformation agenda set out in Agenda 2063. Let us settings that the new, youthful interpretation of Africa’s
consider some of the key over-arching goals. Inclusive cultural identity, common heritage, values and ethics
growth and sustainable development will fundamentally will be made manifest through art, culture and media.
depend on how the primary sites of production and Lastly, robust African cities with a powerful reach in the
consumption, in terms of total economic output, are globalised economy will become increasingly important
organised in terms of overcoming social and spatial in a new context of international relations in a multi-
divides so that everyone can potentially access economic polar world.
opportunities. It will also depend how efficient the flow
of resources, energy and data are through the urban In short, the potential and prospects of the Agenda
system in order to sustain economic activity. 2063 vision hinges on how well Africa’s cities and
towns perform. If these cities embrace the Habitat III
The millions of Africans who practice pan-Africanism agenda and forge an African interpretation and practice,
by migrating from city to city across national optimism for the future can be justified. However, this
boundaries are paving the way for how social and requires a sharper explication of what needs to be done,
cultural integration could function. Instead of tolerating by whom and how the overall institutional architecture
xenophobia, cities can be the true laboratories of pan- will cohere.
African solidarity and cross-cultural innovation. Also,
the ideals of good governance, democracy, respect for This background report serves as a resource for local,
human rights, justice and the rule of law must be forged national and regional dialogues about what is at stake
in the hurly-burly of Africa’s cities otherwise they will and what action is required for Africans to make a
never find root. Furthermore, African cities offer the meaningful intervention. UN-Habitat will take the lead
necessary social thickness to construct these cultures in distributing this resource and promoting continuous
through routinized systems of democratic community democratic dialogue until a grounded and inspiring
vision of the African city presents itself.
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Urbanization presents an unprecedented opportunity to
accelerate the Africa’s transformation and capacity to respond
to development challenges. The continent is currently the
fastest urbanizing in the world and its urban population
TOWARDS AN
will almost double in the next two decades. The imperative
of steering and guiding the urban growth process is thus a
priority undertaking.
AFRICA URBAN
The report highlights key trends, policy imperatives and
policy priorities for an African Urban Agenda in line with
Agenda 2063. This is a timely undertaking at a time when
AGENDA
the role of urbanization in sustainable development is widely
acknowledged including in the context of the Post 2015
Development Agenda. The Third United Nations Conference
on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development (HABITAT
III) further provides a renewed opportunity for Africa’s
efforts to ensure an environmentally sound, socially just and
economically inclusive urbanization paradigm.
HS/065/15E
ISBN: 978-99944-61-72-7
eISBN: 978-99944-62-72-8
UNITED NATIONS HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PROGRAMME

P.O.Box 30030,Nairobi 00100,Kenya;
Tel: +254-20-7626742; Fax: +254-20-7625015;
[email protected]
www.unhabitat.org

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TOWARDS AN

UNITED NATIONS HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PROGRAMME

Copyright © United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) and

All rights reserved

Economic Commission for Africa

© 2015 United Nations

Title: Towards an African Urban Agenda

AUTHORS ECA ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT TEAM:

Wycliffe Tongwa DESIGN AND LAYOUT

Lagos, Nigeria. © Shutterstock

We aspire that, by 2063, Africa shall be a prosperous continent with

02. HABITAT AGENDA: TAKING STOCK AND CONSIDERING POTENTIAL....................................14

03. AFRICAN URBANISATION: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS..........................................................16

05. CONCEPTUAL FRAME: SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA............................30

These fundamental pillars of urbanization, known as

Setting the agenda right is just the obvious first step.

warming has yet to be completed. Optimists are looking

The implications of these multilateral processes

Since Africa has undoubtedly been the worst victim of

thinking and practice, which is potentially good

perspective that is imperative to action at the city scale

of creating the enabling conditions for a structural

Africa’s preparations for Habitat III, the first of the

Lagos, Nigeria. © UN-Habitat

No development policy cycle will impact Africa more

FIG U R E 1 : A CT U A L A ND P R O J E CT ED D E M O GR APH I C CH ANGE S I N AFR I CA, 1950-2050 20

19 50 19 6 0 1970 19 8 0 19 9 0 20 0 0 20 1 0 2020 203 0 20 40 20 50

Source: United Nations, 2014

F I G U R E 2: P ER CE NTA GE U R B A N P O P U L ATI O N PE R CO UNTRY ACR O SS AFR I CAN R E GI O NS 21

ZAMBIA 40.0 31.7

SOUTH AFRICA 62.9 MOZAMBIQUE

FIGURE 3: AFRICAN URBAN DISTRIBUTION IN PERCENTAGE BY SETTLEMENT SIZE 22

2015 2020 2025 2030

10 million 1-5 million > 300 thousand

Source: United Nations, 2014

FIGURE 4: INCOME DISTRIBUTION ACROSS CLASS LINES IN AFRICA27

Source: African Development Bank (AfDB), 2011.

FIGURE 5: SLUM INCIDENCE BY REGION IN DEVELOPING WORLD 28

SLUM INCIDENCE BY REGION IN THE WORLD

Source: UN-Habitat, 2012

There is a vicious cycle between poor living conditions,

Infrastructural Deficits and

FIGURE 6: INFRASTRUCTURE ENDOWMENTS FOR AFRICAN LICS/MICS 30

Paved-road density Total road density Fixed-line density

600 Mobile density Internet density Power generation capacity

Source: AfDB, 2013

FIGURE 7: PROJECTED LAND USE COVER CHANGE RELATIVE TO PROTECTED AREAS 37

Source: Seto, Gunerap, Parnell and Luasa, in press

The flipside of weak governance is often disempowered

In summary, extraordinarily high levels of poverty and

FIGURE 8: AFRICA’S MACRO DEVELOPMENT FRAME (CONTINENTAL AND NATIONAL)44

Source: Recasting Urban Sustainability in the South, 2011

Neither inclusive nor resilient growth is possible if

However, optimally functioning schools and health

People walk and cycle along promenade on “Golden Mile”

FIGURE 9: CONCEPTUAL HIERARCHY OF INVESTMENT PRIORITIES

EDUCATION AND HEALTH

Source: Authors own tabulation

Building on this prescript of the Habitat Agenda, it