Chapter 11

Expert Systems and Applied Artificial Intelligence

11.1 What is Artificial Intelligence?
The field of artificial intelligence (AI) is concerned with
methods of developing systems that display aspects of intelligent
behaviour. These systems are designed to imitate the human
capabilities of thinking and sensing.
Characteristics of AI Systems
Characteristics of AI systems include:
1. Symbolic Processing
In AI applications, computers process symbols rather than
numbers or letters. AI applications process strings of characters
that represent real-world entities or concepts. Symbols can be
arranged in structures such as lists, hierarchies, or networks.
These structures show how symbols relate to each other.
2. Nonalgorithmic Processing
Computer programs outside the AI domain are programmed
algorithms; that is, fully specified step-by-step procedures that
define a solution to the problem. The actions of a knowledgebased AI system depend to a far greater degree on the situation
where it is used.

The Field of AI
Artificial intelligence is a science and technology based on
disciplines such as computer science, biology, psychology,
linguistics, mathematics, and engineering. The goal of AI is to
develop computers that can think, see, hear, walk, talk and feel.
A major thrust of AI is the development of computer functions
normally associated with human intelligence, such as reasoning,
learning, and problem solving.
How the AI Field Evolved [Figure 11.2]
1950 Turing Test - a machine performs intelligently if an
interrogator using remote terminals cannot distinguish its
responses from those of a human.
Result: General problem-solving methods
1960 AI established as research field.
Result: Knowledge-based expert systems
1970 AI commercialization began
Result: Transaction processing and decision support systems
using AI.
1980 Artificial neural networks
Result: Resembling the interconnected neuronal structures in the
human brain

1990 Intelligent agents

Result: Software that performs assigned tasks on the users
behalf
11.2 Capabilities of Expert Systems: General View
The most important applied area of AI is the field of expert
systems. An expert system (ES) is a knowledge-based system
that employs knowledge about its application domain and uses
an inferencing (reason) procedure to solve problems that would
otherwise require human competence or expertise. The power of
expert systems stems primarily from the specific knowledge
about a narrow domain stored in the expert system's knowledge
base.
It is important to stress to students that expert systems are
assistants to decision makers and not substitutes for them.
Expert systems do not have human capabilities. They use a
knowledge base of a particular domain and bring that knowledge
to bear on the facts of the particular situation at hand. The
knowledge base of an ES also contains heuristic knowledge rules of thumb used by human experts who work in the domain.
11.3 Applications of Expert Systems
The test outlines some illustrative minicases of expert systems
applications. These include areas such as high-risk credit

decisions, advertising decision making, and manufacturing

decisions.
Generic Categories of Expert System Applications
Table 11.1 outlines the generic areas of ES applications where
ES can be applied. Application areas include classification,
diagnosis, monitoring, process control, design, scheduling and
planning, and generation of options.
Classification - identify an object based on stated characteristics
Diagnosis Systems - infer malfunction or disease from
observable data
Monitoring - compare data from a continually observed system
to prescribe behaviour
Process Control - control a physical process based on
monitoring
Design - configure a system according to specifications
Scheduling & Planning - develop or modify a plan of action
Generation of Options - generate alternative solutions to a
problem
11.4 How Expert Systems Work

The strength of an ES derives from its knowledge base - an

organized collection of facts and heuristics about the system's
domain. An ES is built in a process known as knowledge
engineering, during which knowledge about the domain is
acquired from human experts and other sources by knowledge
engineers.
The accumulation of knowledge in knowledge bases, from
which conclusions are to be drawn by the inference engine, is
the hallmark of an expert system.
Knowledge Representation and the Knowledge Base
The knowledge base of an ES contains both factual and heuristic
knowledge. Knowledge representation is the method used to
organize the knowledge in the knowledge base. Knowledge
bases must represent notions as actions to be taken under
circumstances, causality, time, dependencies, goals, and other
higher-level concepts.
Several methods of knowledge representation can be drawn
upon. Two of these methods include:
1. Frame-based systems
- are employed for building very powerful ESs. A frame
specifies the attributes of a complex object and frames for
various object types have specified relationships.
2. Production rules

- are the most common method of knowledge representation

used in business. Rule-based expert systems are expert systems
in which the knowledge is represented by production rules.
A production rule, or simply a rule, consists of an IF part (a
condition or premise) and a THEN part (an action or
conclusion). IF condition THEN action (conclusion).
The explanation facility explains how the system arrived at the
recommendation. Depending on the tool used to implement the
expert system, the explanation may be either in a natural
language or simply a listing of rule numbers.
Inference Engine [Figure 11.4]
The inference engine:
1. Combines the facts of a specific case with the knowledge
contained in the knowledge base to come up with a
recommendation. In a rule-based expert system, the inference
engine controls the order in which production rules are applied
(Afired@) and resolves conflicts if more than one rule is
applicable at a given time. This is what Areasoning@ amounts
to in rule-based systems.
2. Directs the user interface to query the user for any
information it needs for further inferencing.
The facts of the given case are entered into the working
memory, which acts as a blackboard, accumulating the

knowledge about the case at hand. The inference engine

repeatedly applies the rules to the working memory, adding new
information (obtained from the rules conclusions) to it, until a
goal state is produced or confirmed.
Figure 11.5 One of several strategies can be employed by an
inference engine to reach a conclusion. Inferencing engines for
rule-based systems generally work by either forward or
backward chaining of rules. Two strategies are:
1. Forward chaining
- is a data-driven strategy. The inferencing process moves from
the facts of the case to a goal (conclusion). The strategy is thus
driven by the facts available in the working memory and by the
premises that can be satisfied. The inference engine attempts to
match the condition (IF) part of each rule in the knowledge base
with the facts currently available in the working memory. If
several rules match, a conflict resolution procedure is invoked;
for example, the lowest-numbered rule that adds new
information to the working memory is fired. The conclusion of
the firing rule is added to the working memory.
Forward-chaining systems are commonly used to solve more
open-ended problems of a design or planning nature, such as, for
example, establishing the configuration of a complex product.
2. Backward chaining

- the inference engine attempts to match the assumed

(hypothesized) conclusion - the goal or subgoal state - with the
conclusion (THEN) part of the rule. If such a rule is found, its
premise becomes the new subgoal. In an ES with few possible
goal states, this is a good strategy to pursue.
If a hypothesized goal state cannot be supported by the
premises, the system will attempt to prove another goal state.
Thus, possible conclusions are review until a goal state that can
be supported by the premises is encountered.
Backward chaining is best suited for applications in which the
possible conclusions are limited in number and well defined.
Classification or diagnosis type systems, in which each of
several possible conclusions can be checked to see if it is
supported by the data, are typical applications.
Uncertainty and Fuzzy Logic
Fuzzy logic is a method of reasoning that resembles human
reasoning since it allows for approximate values and inferences
and incomplete or ambiguous data (fuzzy data). Fuzzy logic is a
method of choice for handling uncertainty in some expert
systems.
Expert systems with fuzzy-logic capabilities thus allow for more
flexible and creative handling of problems. These systems are
used, for example, to control manufacturing processes.

11.5 Expert System Technology [Figure 11.6]

There are several levels of ES technologies available. Two
important things to keep in mind when selecting ES tools
include:
1. The tool selected for the project has to match the capability
and sophistication of the projected ES, in particular, the need to
integrate it with other subsystems such as databases and other
components of a larger information system.
2. The tool also has to match the qualifications of the project
team.
Expert systems technologies include:
1. Specific expert systems
- These expert systems actually provide recommendations in a
specific task domain.
2. Expert system shells
- are the most common vehicle for the development of specific
ESs. A shell is an expert system without a knowledge base. A
shell furnishes the ES developer with the inference engine, user
interface, and the explanation and knowledge acquisition
facilities.

Domain-specific shells are actually incomplete specific expert

systems, which require much less effort in order to field an
actual system.
3. Expert system development environments
- these systems expand the capabilities of shells in various
directions. They run on engineering workstations,
minicomputers, or mainframes; offer tight integration with large
databases; and support the building of large expert systems.
4. High-level programming languages
Several ES development environments have been rewritten from
LISP into a procedural language more commonly found in the
commercial environment, such as C or C++. ESs are now rarely
developed in a programming language.
11.6 Roles in Expert System Development
Three fundamental roles in building expert systems are:
1. Expert - Successful ES systems depend on the experience and
application of knowledge that the people can bring to it during
its development. Large systems generally require multiple
experts.
2. Knowledge engineer - The knowledge engineer has a dual
task. This person should be able to elicit knowledge from the
expert, gradually gaining an understanding of an area of

expertise. Intelligence, tact, empathy, and proficiency in specific

techniques of knowledge acquisition are all required of a
knowledge engineer. Knowledge-acquisition techniques include
conducting interviews with varying degrees of structure,
protocol analysis, observation of experts at work, and analysis of
cases.
On the other hand, the knowledge engineer must also select a
tool appropriate for the project and use it to represent the
knowledge with the application of the knowledge acquisition
facility.
3. User - A system developed by an end user with a simple shell,
is built rather quickly an inexpensively. Larger systems are built
in an organized development effort. A prototype-oriented
iterative development strategy is commonly used. ESs lends
themselves particularly well to prototyping.
11.7 Development and Maintenance of Expert Systems
[Figure 11.7]
Steps in the methodology for the iterative process of ES
development and maintenance include:
1. Problem Identification and Feasibility Analysis:
- the problem must be suitable for an expert system to solve it.
- must find an expert for the project

- cost-effectiveness of the system has to be established

(feasibility)
2. System Design and ES Technology Identification:
- the system is being designed. The needed degree of integration
with other subsystems and databases is established
- concepts that best represent the domain knowledge are worked
out
- the best way to represent the knowledge and to perform
inferencing should be established with sample cases
3. Development of Prototype:
- knowledge engineer works with the expert to place the initial
kernel of knowledge in the knowledge base.
- knowledge needs to be expressed in the language of the
specific tool chosen for the project
4. Testing and Refinement of Prototype:
- using sample cases, the prototype is tested, and deficiencies in
performance are noted. End users test the prototypes of the ES.
5. Complete and Field the ES:

- the interaction of the ES with all elements of its environment,

including users and other information systems, is ensured and
tested.
- ES is documented and user training is conducted
6. Maintain the System:
- the system is keep current primarily by updating its knowledge
base.
- interfaces with other information systems have to be
maintained as well, as those systems evolve.
11-8 Expert Systems in Organizations: Benefits and
Limitations
Expert systems offer both tangible and important intangible
benefits to owner companies. These benefits should be weighted
against the development and exploitation costs of an ES, which
are high for large, organizationally important ESs.
Benefits of Expert Systems
An ES is no substitute for a knowledge worker's overall
performance of the problem-solving task. But these systems can
dramatically reduce the amount of work the individual must do
to solve a problem, and they do leave people with the creative
and innovative aspects of problem solving.

Some of the possible organizational benefits of expert systems

are:
1. An Es can complete its part of the tasks much faster than a
human expert.
2. The error rate of successful systems is low, sometimes much
lower than the human error rate for the same task.
3. ESs make consistent recommendations
4. ESs are a convenient vehicle for bringing to the point of
application difficult-to-use sources of knowledge.
5. ESs can capture the scarce expertise of a uniquely qualified
expert.
6. ESs can become a vehicle for building up organizational
knowledge, as opposed to the knowledge of individuals in the
organization.
7. When use as training vehicles, ESs result in a faster learning
curve for novices.
8. The company can operate an ES in environments hazardous
for humans.
Limitations of Expert Systems
No technology offers an easy and total solution. Large systems
are costly and require significant development time and

computer resources. ESs also have their limitations which

include:
1. Limitations of the technology
2. Problems with knowledge acquisition
3. Operational domains as the principal area of ES application
4. Maintaining human expertise in organizations
11-9 Overview of Applied Artificial Intelligence
Expert systems are only one area of AI. Other areas include:
1. Natural language processing
2. Robotics
3. Computer vision
4. Computerized speech recognition
5. Machine learning
Natural Language Processing
Being able to talk to computers in conversational human
languages and have them Aunderstand@ us in a goal of AI
researchers. Natural language processing systems are becoming
common. The main application for natural language systems at
this time is as a user interface for expert and database systems.

Robotics
AI, engineering, and physiology are the basic disciplines of
robotics. This technology produces robot machines with
computer intelligence and computer-controlled, human like
physical capabilities, robotics applications
Computer Vision
The simulation of human senses is a principal objective of the
AI field. The most advanced AI sensory system is compute
vision, or visual scene recognition. The task of a vision system
is to interpret the picture obtained. These systems are employed
in robots or in satellite systems. Simpler vision systems are used
for quality control in manufacturing.
Speech Recognition
The ultimate goal of the corresponding AI area is computerized
speech recognition, or the understanding of connected speech by
an unknown speaker, as opposed to systems that recognize
words or short phrases spoken one at a time or systems are
trained by a specific speaker before use.
Machine Learning
A system with learning capabilities - machine learning - can
automatically change itself in order to perform the same tasks
more efficiently and more effectively the next time.

A number of approaches to learning are being investigated.

Approaches include:
1. Problem Solving Learning - accumulate Aexperience@ about
its rules in terms of their contributions to correct advice. The
rules that do not contribute or those that are found to provide
doubtful contributions could be automatically discarded or
assigned low certainty factors.
2. Case-Based Learning - collecting cases in a knowledge base
and solving problems by seeking out a case similar to the one to
be solved.
3. Inducive Learning - learning from examples. In this case, a
system is able to generate its knowledge, represented as rules.
11-10 Neural Networks
Neural networks are computing systems modelled on the human
brain's mesh-like network of interconnected processing
elements, called neurons. Of course, neural networks are much
simpler than the human brain (estimated to have more than 100
billion neuron brain cells). Like the brain, however, such
networks can process many pieces of information
simultaneously and can learn to recognize patterns and programs
themselves to solve related problems on their own.
A neural network is an array of interconnected processing
elements, each of which can accept inputs, process them, and

produce a single output with the objective of imitating the

operation of the human brain. Knowledge is represented in a
neural network by the pattern of connections among the
processing elements and by adjusting weights of these
connections.
The strength of neural networks is in applications that require
sophisticated pattern recognition. The greatest weakness of
neural networks is that they do not furnish an explanation for the
conclusions they make.
In summary, a neural network can be trained to recognize certain
patterns and then apply what it learned to new cases where it can
discern the patterns.