Population: Basic Statistics: We Are Continuing To Grow

Population: Basic Statistics
Introduction
For all of its futuristic stylings, the television show Star Trek was, like most science fiction, a commentary
on the state of society at the time it was written (late 1960s). One of the more famous episodes of that
series was the one entitled The Mark of Gideon, which dealt with a planet that was so overpopulated that
people did not have anywhere to sit down. At the time of the show, the Earths population was at about
3.5 billion, and was increasing at an incredible rate. The effects of such a large population on the
environment were beginning to become abundantly clear, and people had begun to wonder just how
many more people the Earth could hold. This Star Trek episode was just one of a number of television
shows, movies, and books at that time (ex. Soylent Green) that foretold of an ominous future if we did not
begin to do something.
Since that time, the only thing that seems to have changed is that the worlds population has gotten
larger. We now have more than 6.3 billion occupants, and we are continuing to grow. Not only that, but
the United States population is growing dramatically, meaning that US citizens may someday need to
make a decision about how much is too much and then develop a policy, if it were possible, to control
growth.
Demographic Basics
Demographers are researchers who study population and its changes. Some terms that they use are birth
rate, death rate, replacement-level fertility, and total fertility rate. We will discuss them here:
Birth rate: Commonly used as the crude birth rate, this is the number of births per 1,000 people within a
certain population.
Death rate: Commonly used as the crude death rate, this is the number of deaths per 1,000 people
within a certain population.
The formulae for determining crude birth rate and crude death rate for a given time interval, such as a
year, are as follows:
total number of births in a population
total population
1,000
crude birth rate
total number of deaths in a population

total population
1,000
crude death rate
Replacement-level fertility: This is the average number of births couples in a population must have in
order to keep the population stable at a certain number. In more developed countries, this number is
approximately 2.1. In any human population, the replacement-level fertility always exceeds 2.0 because
some offspring do not make it to the age of 15, which is the age demographers define as the beginning of
the reproductive years; therefore, more offspring are needed to cover for the shortfall. In less developed
countries, the replacement-level fertility is higher than 2.1 because of harsher conditions and increased
childhood mortality.
Total fertility rate: This is the average number of children a woman in a population has in her lifetime.
Excluding immigration and emigration from the equation, if the total fertility rate exceeds the replacement-
level fertility in a population, then the population is growing. If the total fertility rate is below the
replacement-level fertility, then the population is reducing. Germany, for example, is a growing in
population only because of immigration because its total fertility rate is well below replacement-level
fertility.
An excellent web site for finding statistics related to population is the following:
http://www.geographyiq.com
When you arrive at the site, click on where it says Rankings on the menu at the upper left. When you
arrive at the next web page, scroll down until you see the Population topic heading. You will see
categories related to population such as birth rate, death rate, and total fertility rate listed. Statistics for
each country in the world are provided.
Determining in Percentage Terms How Fast a Population is Growing or Declining
Here is the formula for determining how fast a population is growing or shrinking annually:
Annual Rate of
Population Change
Births
Deaths
1,000
100
X%
We all learned at one time or another that we can simply a formula by crossing out zeroes in the
numerator and denominator, so we are left with the following version:
Annual Rate of
Population Change
Births
10
Deaths
X%
Example: Let us say that a certain population has 28 births and 8 deaths per 1,000 people in that
population for a certain year. How fast is that population growing or shrinking for that year?
Annual Rate of
Population Change
28
10
2%
The population is growing at 2% per year.

Doubling Time and the Rule of 70
Mathematicians are so smart. In economics, they found that if one divides an annual percentage rate into
a certain number, then the number of years for that amount to double could be determined. Likewise for
population, if the growth rate is divided into the number 70, then the number of years it would take for the
population to double could be precisely determined if the growth rate stays the same from year to year;
hence, a population growing at 1% per year would take 70 years to double.
Example: A population of 10 million is growing 3.5% per year. If it stays at this rate from year to year, how
many years would it take for the population to reach 20 million?
70
3.5
20 years
Yes, it is that simple to figure. If the population grows consistently at 3.5% per year, then 20 years is all
the time it takes for the population to double.
Activity Sheet
Population Basic Statistics
ESA21: Environmental Science Activities

Name:
To answer the following questions, go to http://www.geographyiq.com and click on Rankings that you
see in the menu on the left. Look at the list under the title Rankings and find Population. Look to the right
of the word Population and click on the link labeled All Descending. You will then see a list of the
countries of the world and their populations. Answer the following questions:
1. Which is the most populous country in the world?
2. Of the two most populous countries, in fraction terms, approximately how much of the worlds
population do these two most populous countries comprise if world population is 6.3 billion? Circle the
correct answer.
one eighth
one sixth
one third
one half
3. Using 6.3 billion, what percentage of the worlds population belongs to the United States? Circle the
correct answer
2%
5%
8%
10%
4. Click on Rankings in the menu at the left of the http://www.geographyiq.com web site. You will see
under the title Rankings Birth Rate and Death Rate. Go to those web pages to get the following
information:
Country
Germany
Somalia
United States
Mexico
China
Birth Rate
Death Rate
5. Using the formula for calculating annual rate of population change that you read in the lecture part for
this activity, use the information in the table above to determine the change for the countries below. If the
population has a higher death rate than birth rate, be sure to show a negative value for population
change.
Country
Germany
Somalia
United States
Mexico
China
Annual Pop. Change (X%)
6. Go back to the list under the title Rankings at http://www.geographyiq.com and click where it says All
Ascending next to Population growth rate (Note: You can still get the same information from All
Descending; the information is simply listed in reverse). Find the listed population growth rate for
Germany. How does the growth rate shown for Germany there compare with Germanys annual rate of
population change that you calculated above? How much do they differ?
7. Why do these numbers differ? In other words, what is taken into account when they calculated the
population growth rate that you found for Germany as opposed to the growth rate that you calculated for
Germany just using the birth rate and death rate numbers? Without this factor, would Germany still be
growing?
Population Explosion or Not?

8. Based on what youve noticed from observing the population statistics for countries of the world, what
can you say about what is happening with population in general around the world:
the population explosion is continuing world-wide
population is now showing a negative growth rate (reduction) in approximately 95% of the countries in the
world
population is stable world-wide with total fertility rates equaling replacement-level fertility, neither growing
nor shrinking significantly
some countries are still growing at a high rate, but other countries have total fertility rates well below
replacement-level fertility
Total Fertility Rate and Replacement-Level Fertility
9. On the Rankings web page found at http://www.geographyiq.com , find Total Fertility Rate in the list
under Rankings. Click on the link All Ascending that you see to the right of Total Fertility Rate.
Which country in the list comes closest to equaling the replacement-level fertility of 2.1?
10. Which country has the fewest number of children born per woman?
11. Regarding the highly populated countries of India and China, find the total fertility rates of the two
countries. Based on those figures, which of the two countries has been more effective in decreasing its
total fertility rate?
12. Looking at the list of the countries and their total fertility rates, which countries can you generalize to
be less stable politically: those with low total fertility rates or those with high total fertility rates?

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Population: Basic Statistics

crude birth rate

total number of deaths in a population

crude death rate

The population is growing at 2% per year.

ESA21: Environmental Science Activities

Annual Pop. Change (X%)

Population Explosion or Not?

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