A Study On Portfolio Management
A Study On Portfolio Management
A Study On Portfolio Management
ON
Rachana.Shailar
(08U01E0026)
I hereby declare that this project report titled A Study On Security Analysis and
Portfolio Management submitted by me to the
Department of Business
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
For completing this industrial analysis, a few people have been very helpful. I
would like to say the word of gratitude for them in printed.
First of all I would like to thank sincerely to our HOD Mr. Purnachandar sir for
his encouragement, motivation and kind of help to complete this industrial
analysis.
I would like to thank my project guide, especially.Deepthi madam for her
guidance, suggestions, help, support and encouragement.
I am grateful to MBA faculty for their steering guidance, valuable suggestions,
support and co-operation for the successful completion of this project work.
Place: Keesara
A.DEEPTHI
Date:
(08U01E0026)
INTRODUCTION
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT:
Portfolio Management:
Investing is simple but not easy. when it comes to managing your hard-earned money, making
sure it goes that extra mile is a task best left to the experts. And who better to do it for you than
the ICICI DIRECT.COM. The recently launched Portfolio Management Service is sheer music to
investors' ears with the perfect symphony of our varied expertise honed over the years with our
experience in the stock markets.
The whole raison d'etre of the Portfolio Management Service is ensuring that your money goes
that extra mile or earns that extra return, which dramatically improves the returns structure for
your investments.
To highlight the kind of value that we add to your investments, let us consider a small example.
From the age of 25 if you were to invest INR10000/ month and manage your investments and
consequently earn a good average of 14% p.a., your wealth at the time of retirement (at the age
of 60) would be INR 11.77 million. Simultaneously if we were to manage your investment of a
similar nature (INR10000/ month from the age of 25) using all the skills, experience technology
and infrastructure at our disposal and make an increment in your returns of just 2% p.a., your
wealth at the time of retirement would be INR 21.63 million which is a whopping increment of
about INR 10 million.
There are a number of factors, which contribute to earning such a great return on your
investments.
Research:
We have a team of over 15 research analysts, each with impeccable professional credentials.
With a collective experience spanning several hundred years, a veritable treasure-trove of
experience and understanding of the markets and of various sectors and companies, it comes as
no surprise that we are the obvious choice for none other than Forbes when it came to choosing
the Best of the Web for Asia. Under the Asian investing category, Forbes rates us as `a must
read for investors across Asia'.
Asset allocation:
Our investment committee led by two of our directors with impeccable reputation for stock
picking decides on asset allocation across sectors and product categories. They bring to the table
their enormous experience and knowledge of economy, market sentiment and sectoral trends. For
every portfolio, the investment strategy is decided after a careful assessment of several factors
like your investment needs, preferences and risk profile. To ensure a consistent performance, we
apply rigorous methods to measure and control risk. As our investment philosophy is not driven
by brokerage income, you may find a surprisingly low churn in the portfolios managed by us.
Timing:
Proponents of the traditional long-term investment would have you believe that in the long-term,
timing hardly makes any difference. But given the extent of volatility that is prevalent in the
modern markets, stocks could swing more even in a given day more than a conservative
investors targeted return for an entire year. We have a team of dealers and technical analysts
who can help you capitalize on precisely these fluctuations in the markets.
Relationship management:
As a Portfolio management customer you will have the services of your very own Relationship
Manager. Relationship Managers at India Info line are chosen after stringent checks related to the
character, integrity and the overall competence post which they undergo extensive training. You
can think of your Relationship Manager as your one point of contact for all your queries related
to your investments
BackOffice:
An online back office means you always have online and anytime access to your ledger account,
your contract notes, bills and portfolio performance report. This is the result of our immense
investment in technology and systems over the years.
Apart from these you will discover many small and thoughtful features, which will add value to
your experience, literally
OBJECTIVES
To study the investments pattern of an investor and its related risk and return.
To analyze and select the portfolio of investment.
To help investors to choose the combination of securities reducing risk and
Maximizing returns.
To study how to construct portfolio using two securities.
To study the overall profit of the portfolio
To study what is the risk involved in the constructed portfolio
METHODOLOGY OF STUDY
For implementing the study, of securities or stocks consisting the sensex market are selected of
one year opening and closing share movement price date from BSE on date.
-------------------------------------------- 100
Opening price
To know the average (R) the following formula has been used
Average (R) = R
N
The next step is to know the risk of the stock or security; the following formula is given below.
Std.dev = Variance
n
Variance =1/n-1 (R-R)
t=1
Where
(R-R) = squares of different between sample and mean.
n = number of sample observations.
After that, the correlation of the securities is calculated by using the following formula;
Corrlation Coefficient (rAB) = COV AB
(A)(B)
Co-variance (COVAB) = 1/n (RA)-(RA)(RB-RB)
t =1
Where,
(RA-RA)(RB-RB) =combined deviations of A&B.
(A) ( B)
COV AB
N= no of observations.
The next step would be the construction of the optimal portfolio on the basis of what percentage
of investment should be invested when two securities and stocks are combined ie, calculations of
assets portfolio weights by using minimum equation, which is given below
B ( B rABA)
WA =
A +B - 2rABAB
WB = 1 - WA
Where WA= proportion of investment in A
WB= proportion of investment in B
The next and final step is to calculate the portfolio risk (combined risk) that shows how much is
reduced by combining two stocks or securities by using this formula.
FORMULA:
p = A- WA + B W B + 2r AB A A WA WB
Where,
p = Portfolio Risk
A = Standard Deviation of securitiy A
WA = Proportion of investment in security B
B = Standard Deviation of security of B
WB = proportion of investment in security B
rAB = Co-relation Coefficient between security A&B.
The study has certain constrains which has limited to its scope and objects of the study.
The fulfillment of project to 45 days.
From BSE and NSE listing a very few and randomly selected scripts are
analyzed.
Construction of portfolio restricted to two- assets based in Markowitz model.
Limited industries are only covered in the study.
INDUSTRY PROFILE
NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India became operational in the capital market
segment on 3rd November 1994 in Mumbai. The genesis of the NSE lies in the recommendations
of the pertains committee 1991. Apart from the NSE, it had recommended for the establishment
of national stock market system also. The committee pointed out some major defects in the
Indian stock market. The Defects specified are
1. Lack of liquidity in most of the markets in terms of depth and breadth.
2. Lack of ability to develop markets for debts.
3. Lack of infrastructure facilities and outdated trading system.
4. Lack of transparency in the operations that effect investors confidence.
5. Outdated settlement systems that are inadequate to cater to the growing volume, leading
to delays.
6. Lack of single market due to the inability of various stock exchanges to function
cohesively with legal structure and regulatory framework.
These factors led to the establishment of the NSE.
OBJECTIVES:
1) To establish a nationwide trading facility for equities, debt instruments and
hybrids.
2) To ensure equal access to investors all over the country through appropriate
communication network.
3) To provide a fair, efficient and transparent securities market to investors using an
electronic communication network.
4) To enable shorter settlement cycle and book entry settlement system.
subsidiaries of banks engaged in financial services and such other persons or entities are may be
permitted from time to time by RBI\SEBI.
1. The whole-time Directors should possess at least two years experience in any activity related
to banking or financial services.
2. The applicant must be engaged solely in the business of the securities and must not be engaged
in any fund-based activities.
3. The applicant must possess a minimum of Rs.2crores
In case of individual or sole proprietary concerns. The two experienced directors in a corporate
applicant or trading member should hold minimum 5% of the capital of the company.
NSE-NIFTY
The national Stock Exchange on April 22,1996 launched a new Equity Index. The
NSE-50. The new Index which replaces the existing NSE-100 Index is expected to serve as an
appropriate Index for the new segment of futures and options.
Nifty means National Index for Fifty Stock.
The NSE-50 comprises 50 companies that represent 20 broad Industry groups with an aggregate
market capitalization of around Rs.170000crores. All companies included in the index have a
market capitalization in excess of Rs.500crores each and should have traded for 85% of trading
days at an impact cost of less than 1.5%.
The base period for the index is the close of prices on Nov 3, 1995 which makes one year of
completion of operation of NSEs capital market segment. The base value of the Index has been
set at 1000.
A Government Board comprising of 9 elected Directors (one third of them retire every year by
rotation), Two SEBI Nominees, Seven Public representatives and an Executive Director is the
Apex Body, which decides the policies and regulates the affairs of the Bombay Stock Exchange.
The executive Director as the Chief Executive Officer is responsible for the day-to-day
administration of the Bombay Stock exchange.
SECURITIES TRADED:
The securities traded in the BSE are classified in to three groups namely specified shares of A
group and non-specified securities. The latter is sub-divided into B1 and B groups. A group
contains the companies with large outstanding shares, good track record and large volumes of
business in the secondary market. Settlements of all the shares are carried out through the
Clearing House. In order to enable the market participants, analysts etc., to track the various ups
and downs in the Indian Stock Market, the Exchange has introduced in 1986 an equity stock
index called BSE-SENSEX that subsequently became the barometer of the moments of the share
prices in the Indian Stock Market. It is a Market Capitalization-Weighted index of 30
components. The base year of SENSEX is 1978-79. The SENSEX is widely reported in both
domestic and international markets through print as well as electronic media.
SENSEX is calculated using a market capitalization weighted method. As per this
methodology, the level of the index reflects the total market value of all 30component stocks
from different industries related to particular base period. The total market value of a company is
determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the number of shares outstanding.
Statisticians call an index of a set of combined variables (such as price and number of shares) a
composite index. An indexed number is used to represent the results of this calculation in order
to make the value easier to work with and track over a time. It is much easier to graph a chart
based on indexed values than one based on actual values.
In practice, the daily calculation of SENSEX is done by dividing the aggregate market
of the 30 Companies in the Index by a number called the Index Divisor. The Divisor is the only
link to the original based period value of the SENSEX. The divisor keeps the index comparable
over a period of time and if the reference point for the entire Index maintenance adjustments.
SENSEX is widely used to describe the mood in the Indian Stock Markets.
Base year average is changed as per the formula:
New Base Year Average =Old Base Year Average * (New Market Value/Old Market Value)
Company Profile:
ICICI GROUP
ICICI
Securities
Indias
Leading
Investment
Bank
A subsidiary of ICICI Bank - the largest and most recognized private bank in India ICICI
Securities Ltd is premier Indian Investment Bank, with a dominant position in its core segments
of its operations - Corporate Finance including Equity Capital Markets Advisory Services,
Institutional Equities, Retail and Financial Product Distribution with a full-Service portfolio, a
roster of blue-chip clients and performance second to none, we have a formidable reputation
within the industry.
Under the able leadership of Mr.s Mukherji, Managing Director and CEO, ICICI Securities
is among the leading Financial Institutions both on the institutional as well as retail side.
The Corporate Finance team regularly ranks highest among the leading capital markets league
tables and recently topped the Prime Database League tables for funds mobilized through equity
instruments in the first half of CY 07.
Headquartered in Mumbai, I-Sec operates out of several locations in India.
Overview:
ICICI Securities is a strongly positioned investment bank in India and provides products and
services in Fixed Income, Equities and Corporate Finance. In the fixed income business ICICI
Securities is a leading market participant in the country. ICICI Securities fixed income activities
include interest rate trading, derivatives trading, research and issue management.
The Corporate Finance business focuses on industry consolidation. ICICI Securities has been
involved in a number of mergers, cross border acquisition, equity and bidding for a number of
reputed companies. The equity business offers research, sales and execution services to
institutional investors in the secondary market and capital market related services such as
execution of public offerings, structuring and regulatory and legal documentation services.
In order to assist/provide corporate clients and institutional investors with investment banking
services in the United States of America, ICICI Securities has set up two subsidiaries namely,
ICICI Securities Holdings Inc and ICICI Securities Inc, ICICI Securities Inc, has become the
registered broker dealer with the National Association of Securities Dealers Inc, empowering it
to engage in a variety of securities transactions in the U.S. market.
Year in review:
ICICI Securities is amongst the largest arranger of funds in Debt and Equity segments and also
amongst the leading advisors in Mergers and Acquisitions. Its clients include a wide range of
Indian and foreign corporations and institutional investors.
ICICI Securities continued to maintain its leadership position in the industry and delivered a
remarkable performance. ICICI Securities net worth was Rs. 3.51 billion, an increase of 10.03%
over the previous year. ICICI Securities was placed as a No. 1 advisor for M&As in India, with
closure of 4 deals aggregating to US $ 142.47 million (This is as per recent rankings published
by Bloomberg for the first quarter of 2003).
ICICI Securities raised Rs. 6.7 billion through initial public offerings (IPOs).
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES
I-Sec assists global institutional investors to make the right decisions through insightful research
coverage and a client focused Sales and Dealing team. A 30-member strong dedicated and
specialized research team ensures flow of well thought-out and well-researched stock ideas and
portfolio strategies. The Sales and Dealing team has demonstrated strong sales and execution
capabilities of actionable ideas to clients which have resulted in good relationships across
geographies.
I-Sec enjoys the first mover and market leader advantage in the derivatives segment. We have the
strongest derivatives desk and we offer the entire spectrum, from set-up to trading strategy. The
equity group leverages research and distribution reach to domestic and foreign institutional
investors in case of public offerings. The research team tracks over 15 key sectors of the Indian
economy and publishes in-depth research reports every year.
The equity group acts as a bridge for institutional investors and corporate clients with the
markets. For its expertise, ICICI Securities has been adjudged as the Best Brokerage House" by
Asia Money in 2003, a prestigious financial journal.
Retail Equities
ICICI Securities has the largest reach to the retail segment through its two pioneering brands
ICICIdirect.com and ICICI direct.
ICICIDirect.com
ICICIdirect.com is the most comprehensive website, which allows you to invest in Shares,
Mutual funds, Derivatives (Futures and Options), IPO, Commodities and other financial
products. Subscribers benefit from the unique 3-in-1 package - a demat account, a trading
account, and a bank account, thus giving the customer an efficient and hassle free trading
platform. An adept research team facilitates the consumer in taking more informed investment
decisions. ICICIDirect.com is a truly online share-trading site. This means that from the time you
punch in a buy or sell trade on your computer to the final settlement in your account, everything
happens completely online. The 3-in-1 e-invest account integrates your brokerage, bank and one
or more depository accounts to make sure that you can do the otherwise cumbersome share
trading from the comfort of your home or office, at absolutely any time of the dayor night.
ICICIdirect.com is the leader in the online share trading space with over 1.2 million customers,
which translates to a market share of over 65%. The firm has been winning the prestigious
Outlook Money - Indias Best e-Brokerage House for 2003-2004, 2004-2005 and 2006-07.
ICICI Securities has also set up a unique model of neighborhood financial superstores called
ICICIdirect. With an avowed purpose of turning money to wealth the stores offer a slew of
financial products like Mutual Fund, IPO, Loans as well as Share trading and assist Customers in
investing their funds wisely in options of their choice. The ICICIdirect centers, due to its
personalized advisory system, are firmly driven by the relationship with its customers.
provided the BO Account/s at transferee DP and at transferor DP are one and the same, i.e.
identical in all respects. In case the BO Account at transferor DP is a joint account, the BO
Account at transferee DP should also be a joint account in the same sequence of ownership.
Alliance MF
UTI MF
Prudential ICICI MF
ING Vysya MF
Reliance Capital MF
JM MF
Standard Chartered MF
Franklin Templeton MF
Kotak Mahindra MF
Sundaram MF
HDFC MF
Principal MF
Tata MF
CHOLA MF
Deutsche MF
HSBC MF
Fidelity MF
You can invest in mutual funds without the hassles of filling application forms or any other
paperwork.
You
need
no
signatures
or
proof
of
identity
for
investing.
Once you place a request for investing in a particular fund, there are no manual processes
involved. Your bank funds are automatically debited or credited while simultaneously crediting
or debiting your unit holdings. You also get control over your investments with Online order
confirmations and order status tracking. Get to know the performance of your investments
through online updation of MF portfolio with current NAV.
Awards:
Convenience: the 3-in-1 account integrates your banking, broking and demat accounts. This
enables you to trade in shares without going through the hassles of tracking settlement cycles,
writing cheques and Transfer Instructions, chasing your broker for cheques or Transfer
Instructions etc.
Speed: You can now get the latest quotes of scrips on ICICIdirect.com and place an order
almost instantly.
Control: You can be assured that you have in fact placed an order at the price you always
wanted to, but may not have been able to do so till now. Thereby giving you control over your
own trades.
Independence: Instead of transferring monies to a broker's pool or towards deposits, you can
manage your own demat and bank accounts when you trade through ICICIdirect.com.
Trust: ICICIdirect.com comes to you from ICICI, the organization trusted by millions of
Indians. Utilize it to the maximum of its potential and thereby reduce unnecessary paperwork
Companys Vision:
To make ICICI Direct the dominant online share trading by world class people and
Understanding the needs of customers and offering them superior product and Service.
Providing and enabling environment to foster growth and learning for our
employees
Companys mission:
To judged by their sales and earnings growth rates than on the absolute value of their
sales and earnings. Look for companies that consistently grow faster than there peers. Investors
prefer companies that increase profit margins -- the percentage of sales that they keep -- every
year. This is accomplished either by lowering expenses or raising prices. Look for companies
that consistently find ways to squeeze more profits out of sales than their peers.
The financial health of a company is dependent on a combination of
profitability, short-term liquidity and long term liquidity. Companies, which are profitable, but
have poor short term or long term liquidity measures, do not survive the troughs of the trade
cycle
Anil Kaul, ceo Retail
Ashish Kaul, marketing & analysist
Rajendra Sharma, equity Analysist & MIS
Rohit Dhabolkar, marketing & Branding
Sanjiv Saraff, product Manager
Abhijit Ghosh, Sales zonal heads
Dharmesh dixit, project & operation.
Prasanan keshavan, Customer service & operation
Raman Addanki, Legal risk & Complain
Manoj kabra, Audit & cost control.
Harendra Kumar, Research
Joseph Abraham, HR.
A process by which the physical certificates of an investor are taken back by the company /
registrar and actually destroyed and an equivalent number of securities are credited in the
electronic holdings of the investor.
Offers services to clients dealing in Government securities through the SGL A/C. besides
holding the securities, ICICI Capital Services Ltd.
Provides records update based on the transactions made by the clients.
Collects and credits the benefits and proceeds from sale to the clients account and
Supplies periodical reports on the transactions and holding of the clients.
TRADING:
Next function activates when an investor buys or sells in the market.
BUYING:
1.
SELLING:
1. An investor gets order executed.
2. Investor instructs his Depository Participant to debit his account with immediate effect.
The shares move from investors account to Brokers Clearing Member account via NSDL.
A broker clearing member accounts is credited.
3. Before settlement day broker transfers shares from his clearing member account to
Clearing house via NSDL. His account is debited.
4. On settlement day Broker receives payment from clearing house which he passes on
to the investor.
Organizational structure
Profile of the Organization
DEPARTMENT/FUNCTIONAL AREAS
Infrastructure financing, corporate financing and retail have been the strong pillars of ICICI's
growth. They expect these to remain thrust areas in the future too. The financial institution sees
significant opportunities in the power sector, and in the rapid de- regulation of the Telecom sector.
On the retail side, ICICI has established a retail franchisee through a physical presence across 42
cities. Its retail thrust has been on the planks of technology enabled low cost distribution channels
like the Internet, Call centers and ATMs.
It occupies the number one position in automobile financing (over 20% of the market share),
number one in credit cards on an incremental basis. It also has a growing presence in home
finance and on-line trading.
ICICI BANK
ICICI Bank is a commercial banking outfit set up by the ICICI Group. The Bank was registered
a banking company on January 5th, 1994 and received its banking license from the Reserve Bank
of India on May 17th, 1994. The Bank has an authorized capital of INR 300crore (USD 75.96
million), of which subscribed and paid-up capital is INR 165 crore (USD 41.78 million). The
first ICICI Bank branch was started in Madras in June 1994. The branches are fully
computerized with state-of-the-art technology and systems. All of them are fully networked
through V-SAT (Satellite) technology. The Bank is connected to the international SWIFT
network since March 1995. ICICI Bank offers a wide spectrum of domestic and international
banking services to facilitate trade, investment, cross- border business, and treasury and foreign
exchange services. This is in addition to a whole range of deposit services offered to individuals
and corporate bodies. ICICI Banks
Infinity was the first Internet banking service in the country, and a prelude to banking in
the next millennium. Currently the Bank has around 150,000 customers.
The profit after tax of the Company for the year under review is Rs.377
million Due to inclusion of an extraordinary profit of Rs.250 million on sale of investments, the
Profit after Tax has registered an increase of 42% compared to previous year. The profit from the
manufacturing activities of the Company is lower mainly due to
1. Price reduction offered to customers
2. Increase in the input and raw materials cost
3. a particular customer in the two wheeler market witnessed a steep decline in the sale of
a model for which UFSL is supplying the Carburettors
Key Ratios 2005-06 2004-05
Current Ratio (Current Assets/Current Liabilities) 1.67:1 2.55:1 Debt - Equity Ratio 0.47:1 0.04:1
Debtors
Turnover
(Debtors/Gross
Sales)
1.18
Months
1.25
Months
Creditors
Weakness
1. Competition from cheap imports
2. Low customer base
Opportunities
1. UFSL has initiated development of products for diesel application. This will provide
Turnover
PORTFOLIO
A portfolio is a collection of securities. Since it is rarely desirable to invest the entire funds of an
individual or an institution in a single security, it is essential that every security be viewed in the
portfolio context. Thus it seems logical that the expected return of each of the security contained
in the portfolio.
Portfolio analysis considers the determination of future risk and return in holding various blends
of the individual securities. Portfolio expected return is a weighted average of the expected
return of individual securities but portfolio variances, in short contrast, can be something less
than a weighted average of security variance. As a result an investor can sometimes reduce
portfolio risk by adding security with greater individual risk than any other security in the
portfolio. This is because risk depends greatly on the co-variance among returns of individual
security. Portfolio which is combination of securities may or may not take an aggregate
characteristic of their part.
Since portfolios expected return is a weighted average of the expected return of its securities, the
contribution of each security to the portfolios expected returns depends on its expected returns
and its proportionate share of the initial portfolios market value. It follows that an investor who
simply wants the greatest possible expected return should hold one security; the one which is
considered to have a greatest, expected return. Very few investors do this, and very few
investments advisors would counsel such an extreme policy. Instead, investors should diversify,
meaning that their portfolio should include more than one security.
Portfolio management is an on-going process involving the following the following basic tasks:
Identification of the investors objectives, constraints and preferences.
Strategies are to be developed and implemented in tune with investments policy
formulated.
Review and monitoring of the performance of the portfolio.
Finally the evaluation of the portfolio
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
Portfolio analysis is needed for the selection of optimal portfolio by rational risk adverse
investors. Portfolio analysis is essential for portfolio construction. The objective of the portfolio
or maximize the risk subject to the desired level of return on the portfolio or maximize the return
subject to the constraint of a tolerable level of risk. It enables the investors to identify the
potential securities, which will maximize the following objectives such as security of the
principle, stability of income, capital growth marketability, liquidity & diversification.
Concept of Risk
Investment in shares has its own risk or uncertainty, which arises out of variability of returns,
yields and uncertainty of appreciation or depreciation of shares prices, loss of liquidity
etc. this risk over time, is capital appreciation. This risk is measured statistically by the
degree of variance or standard deviation of returns. Normally higher the risk that the
investor taker higher is the return.
Diversification of Risk:
minimized, subject to desired level of return on the portfolio or maximized the return, subject to
constrain of tolerable level of risk.
Markowitz model
According to Markowitz, the portfolio theory establishes a relationship between portfolios
expected return and its level of risk as the criteria for selecting the optimal portfolio. Thus two
measures were suggested for evaluating the merits of portfolio.
The expected return from the portfolio.
The level of risk exposure associated with the portfolio.
This theory believes in asset correlation and combining assets so as to lower the risk.
From the efficient set of portfolios the best one would be selected on the basis of the risk
and returns. These risk and returns are calculated using standard deviations and the
coefficient of variations. It is also called as the full co-variance model. The expected
return on the portfolio is calculated by using the following;
N
Rp = RiXi
I=1
Where, Rp = expected return on portfolio
Ri = expected return on security i
Xi = the proportion of portfolio investment in security i
N = total number of securities in the portfolio.
The risk of a portfolio comprising of shares A and B van be expressed using variance as the
measures of risk.
Covariance of AB = X2 A2 A +X2 B2 B + 2XAXBrAB A B
Cov.AB = the variance between the rates of return on shares A and B,
Where,
rAB = Coefficient of correlation between A and B shares
X2 A = Proportion invested in shares A
2
X B
Cov.AB = rAB A B
Portfolio revision
Irrespective of how well a portfolio is constructed, it soon tends to change and hence needs to be
monitored and revised periodically. Portfolio once constructed undergoes changes in the market
prices; reassessment of companies, the portfolio risk and the proportion in each asset class will
change to bring back the portfolio to the targeted level of beta or risk and duration. Overtime
several things are likely to happen.
This usually involves two things:
1) Portfolio rebalancing.
It involves reviewing and revising the portfolio compositions. There are three basic policies with
respect to portfolio rebalancing.
By and hold policy,
Constant asset mix, and
Portfolio insurance policy.
2) Portfolio upgrading.
While portfolio rebalancing involves shifting from stocks to bonds or vice versa, it calls for
reassessing the risk return characteristics of various securities, selling
and buying under priced securities. It may also involve the other changes the investor may
consider necessary to enhance the performance of portfolio.
Portfolio evaluation
The performance of the portfolio should be evaluated periodically. The key dimensions of a
portfolio performance evaluation are risk and return and the key issue is whether the portfolio
return is commensurate with its risk exposure. Such a review may provide useful to improve the
quality of portfolio management process on a continuing basis.
For evaluating the performance of a portfolio it is necessary to consider both risk and return. The
following are the models for evaluating performance of a portfolio.
Treynor Measure.
Sharpe measure.
Jensen measure.
Investment Decision
Definition of investment
According to F. Amling Investment may be defined as the purchase by an individual or
institutional investor of a financial or real asset that produces a return proportional to the risk
assumed over some future investment period.
According to D.E. Fisher and R.J. Jordan, investment is a commitment of funds made in the
expectation of some positive rate of return. If the investment is properly undertaken, the return
will be commensurate with the risk the investor assumes.
Concept of investment
Investment will be generally be used in its financial sense and as such investment is an allocation
of monetary resources to assets that are expected to yield some gain or positive return over a
given period of time. Investment is a commitment of persons funds to drive future income in the
form of interest, dividends rent, premiums, pension benefits or the appreciation of the value of
his principle capital
Any Investors would like to know the media or range of investment so that he can use his
discretion and save in those investments, which will give him both security and stable return. The
ultimate objective of the investor is to derive a variety of investments that meets his preference
for risk and expected return. The investor will select the portfolio, which will maximize his
utility. Another important consideration is the temperament and psychology of the investor. It is
not only the construction of a portfolio that will promise the highest expected return, but it is the
satisfaction of the need of the investor.
Many types of investment media or channels for making investment are available. Securities
ranging from risk free instruments to highly speculative shares and debentures are available for
alternative investments.
All investments are risky, as the investor parts with his money. An efficient investor with proper
training, can reduce the risk and maximize returns, he can avoid pitfalls and protect his interests.
There are different methods of classifying the investment avenues. A physical, if savings are used
to acquire physical assets, useful for consumption or production. Some physical assets like
ploughs, tractors or harvesters are useful in agriculture production. A few useful physical assets
like cars, jeeps etc., are useful in business. Among different types of investments some are
marketable and transferable and other are not. Example of marketable assets are shares and
debentures of public ltd companies particularly the listed companies on stock exchange, bonds of
P.S.U. Government securities etc. non marketable securities of investments are bank deposits,
provident and pension funds, insurance certificates, company deposits, private Ltd Company
shares etc.,
Investment process
The investment process may be described in the following stages.
Investment Policy: The first state determines and involves personal financial affairs and
objectives before making investment. It can also be called the preparation of the investment
policy stage. The investor has to see that he should be able to create an emergency fund, an
element of liquidity and quick convertibility of securities into cash. This stage may, therefore, be
called the proper time for identifying investment assets and considering the various features of
investment.
Investment Analysis: After arranging a logical order of type of investment preferred, the next
step is to analyze the securities available for kind of securities etc. the primary concerns at this
stage would be to form beliefs regarding future behavior of prices and stocks, the expected return
and associated risks.
Investment Valuation: Investment value, in general is taken to be the present worth to the
owners of future benefits from investments. The investor has to bear in mind the value of these
investments. An appropriate set of weights have to be applied with the use of forecasted benefits
to estimate the value of investment assets such as stocks, debentures and bonds and other assets.
Comparison of the value with the current market price of the asset allows a determination of the
relative attractiveness of the asset must be valued on its individual merit.
Requirement of portfolio
An investor who has and wishes to exploit his stock picking skills should start with a base
portfolio to that of type A investor. He should then adjust the weights of the stocks, which are in
his opinion mispriced. Specifically, he should overweight the stocks that are over valued and
underweighted those which are under value. For example, the base portfolio may have 2% in
stock X and 1.5% in stock Y. the investor who finds X under valued and Y over valued may
change the weights to 3% to X, he may have a portfolio. This may not be legally or practically
possible. The investor than has to raise the weight X to 4%, eliminate Y from the portfolio and
reduce the weight of some other stocks by 0.5%.
The investor can deal with this problem in a slightly different manner. He can put, say 90% of his
equity investment in the diversified portfolio and reserve the remaining 10% for the mispriced
stocks. How large a fraction he should devote to mispriced scripts depends on how good analyst
may choose a larger fraction. What we are doing in this decision is to balance to profit potential
of investing is undervalued stocks against the benefits of diversification. Unless we are confident
about our analysis, we should give privacy to the need for diversification.
Since the average beta of the undervalued and overvalued stocks is likely to be closed to one, the
overall beta is likely to remain close to the target value, unless the target beta is substantially
different from one and the percentage of the portfolio devoted to mispriced stocks is large. If, for
some reason, this is not so, the investor would have to take future action to maintain to the beta
at the largest value. The portfolio of the type B investor is concentrated but has a constant beta.
Type C Investor: Only market timing skills
The type C investor holds a well-diversified portfolio but switches actively between defensive
and offensive portfolios to take advantage of the market timing. If the expects the market to rise,
he should push his portfolio beta above his target level by any of the techniques described in the
section on market timing. The converse should be done if the investor is bearish about the
market. In either case, the portfolio would remain diversified all through. The portfolio of this
investor diversified, but its beta is managed and not constant.
Type D Investor: Both stock picking and market timing skills
This type of investor would use the techniques used by both the type B and type C investor.
These investors would have the most active and aggressive portfolio management strategies.
Using their superior ability to predict boom and busts in the markets as a whole and their skills in
identifying undervalued scrips, they should hold highly concentrated portfolios and let the beta
fluctuate quiet sharply around the long run target value.
A pitfall be a very strenuously avoided is that of assuming that one has a skill,
which one in reality does not have. For example, an investor who does not have very good
abilities in script selection may still think that he does not have suck stills. He would then end up
with an ill-diversified portfolio, which earns mediocre returns: he would have been better off
with a passive portfolio.
An important technique used by ICICI direct.com for evaluating their shares for trading purpose.
The discounted cash flow technique is an improvement on the pay-back period method. It takes
into account both the interest factor as well as the return after pay-back period. The method
involves three stages:
1. Calculation of cash flow, i.e. both inflows and out flows (preferable after tax) over the full life
of the asset.
2. Discounting the cash flow so calculated by a discount factor.
3. Aggregating of discounted cash inflows and out comparing the total with discounted cash out
flow
Discounted cash flow thus recognizes that Re1 of day (the cash out flow) is worth more than Re1
received at a future date (cash inflow). Discounted cash flow method s for evaluating capital
investment proposal is of three types as explained below:
(a)
NPV method.
In this method cash inflow and cash outflows associated with each project are first worked out.
The present value pt these cash inflows and outflows are then calculated at the rate of return
acceptable to the management. This rate of return is considered as the cut-off rate and is
generally determined on the basis of cost of capital suitable adjusted to allow for the risk element
involved in the project. Cost outflows represent the investment and commitments of cash in the
project at various point of time. The working capital is taken as a cash outflow in the year the
project starts. Commercial production profit after tax but before depreciation represents cash
inflow. Thee Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the total present value of future
cash inflows and the total present value of future cash outflows.
(b) Excess present value index:
This is refinement of the net present value index method. Instead of working out the net present
value, a present index is found out by comparing the total of present value of future cash inflows
and the total of the present value of future cash outflows.
(c) Internal Rate of Return:
IRR is that at which the sum of discounted cash inflows equals the sun of discounted cash
outflows. In other words, it is the rate which discounts their dash flows to zero. It can be started
in the form of a ratio as follows.
Cash inflows
Cash outflows
=1
As for the technique followed shows only for the present value or an limited time period where
as the technique followed in analysis for portfolio building takes into account all he long term
capital gains.
Symbol
Date
Open
Price
Close
Price
INFOSYSTCH
2-Mar-10
2631.55
2641
INFOSYSTCH
3-Mar-10
2651.1
2666.25
INFOSYSTCH
4-Mar-10
2662
2623.8
INFOSYSTCH
5-Mar-10
2633.9
2635.7
INFOSYSTCH
8-Mar-10
2653
2659.55
INFOSYSTCH
9-Mar-10
2650.05
2683.95
INFOSYSTCH
10-Mar-10
2674.9
2659.25
INFOSYSTCH
11-Mar-10
2665
2682.95
INFOSYSTCH
12-Mar-10
2699.9
2673.25
INFOSYSTCH
15-Mar-10
2654.4
2701.25
returns
0.359
0.571
-1.435
0.068
0.247
1.279
-0.585
0.674
-0.987
1.765
avg
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
dif
0.375
0.587
-1.419
0.084
0.263
1.295
-0.569
0.689
-0.971
1.781
dif2
0.140
0.345
2.015
0.007
0.069
1.677
0.324
0.475
0.944
3.171
INFOSYSTCH
16-Mar-10
2700
2732.35
INFOSYSTCH
17-Mar-10
2735
2738.3
INFOSYSTCH
18-Mar-10
2740
2787.6
INFOSYSTCH
19-Mar-10
2780.1
2772.35
INFOSYSTCH
22-Mar-10
2752.1
2757.4
INFOSYSTCH
23-Mar-10
2770.05
2775.5
INFOSYSTCH
25-Mar-10
2771
2813.95
INFOSYSTCH
26-Mar-10
2816
2774.85
INFOSYSTCH
29-Mar-10
2758
2716.65
INFOSYSTCH
30-Mar-10
2715
2644.1
INFOSYSTCH
31-Mar-10
2653.9
2615.95
1.198
0.121
1.737
-0.279
0.193
0.197
1.550
-1.461
-1.499
-2.611
-1.430
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
-0.016
1.214
0.136
1.753
-0.263
0.208
0.212
1.566
-1.446
-1.484
-2.596
-1.414
1.473
0.019
3.073
0.069
0.043
0.045
2.451
2.090
2.201
6.738
2.000
29.36
9
Risk=d2/n
=29.369/21
= 1.1825
INTERPRETATION:
The above graph shows individual return and risk as well as portfolio return and risk calculated
using Markowitz theory .this portfolio consist of one securities Infosys whose average returns are
-0.016.
Symbol
Date
Open
Price
Close
Price
WIPRO
2-Mar-10
675
701.25
WIPRO
3-Mar-10
705
698.5
WIPRO
4-Mar-10
697.5
693.75
WIPRO
5-Mar-10
695
685.85
WIPRO
8-Mar-10
687
697.7
WIPRO
9-Mar-10
702
702.05
WIPRO
10-Mar-10
702
696.3
WIPRO
11-Mar-10
702
709.4
WIPRO
12-Mar-10
714.8
710.05
WIPRO
15-Mar-10
715
728.65
WIPRO
16-Mar-10
731
727.7
WIPRO
17-Mar-10
734
739.1
WIPRO
18-Mar-10
745
728.95
WIPRO
19-Mar-10
731.9
726.5
WIPRO
22-Mar-10
719.7
728
WIPRO
23-Mar-10
720
720.25
WIPRO
25-Mar-10
715
719.15
return avera
s
ge
dif
D2
3.889
0.062
3.827 14.645
-0.922
0.062 -0.984
0.968
-0.538
0.062 -0.600
0.360
-1.317
0.062 -1.379
1.900
1.557
0.062
1.495
2.237
0.007
0.062 -0.055
0.003
-0.812
0.062 -0.874
0.764
1.054
0.062
0.992
0.984
-0.665
0.062 -0.727
0.528
1.909
0.062
1.847
3.412
-0.451
0.062 -0.513
0.264
0.695
0.062
0.633
0.400
-2.154
0.062 -2.216
4.912
-0.738
0.062 -0.800
0.640
1.153
0.062
1.091
1.191
0.035
0.062 -0.027
0.001
0.580
0.062
0.518
0.269
WIPRO
26-Mar-10
726
717.5
WIPRO
29-Mar-10
718
715.6
WIPRO
30-Mar-10
710
701.6
WIPRO
31-Mar-10
702
706.95
Risk= d2/n
=37.118/21
=1.3294
-1.171
-0.334
-1.183
0.705
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
-1.233
-0.396
-1.245
0.643
1.520
0.157
1.550
0.414
37.118
Symbol
HDFCBANK
HDFCBANK
Date
2-Mar-10
3-Mar-10
Open
Price
1724
1742.55
Close
Price
Return
s
AVG
1744.95
1644.9
5
1736.8
81
1776.65
1676.6
5
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
HDFCBANK
4-Mar-10
1775
1781.15
1681.1
5
HDFCBANK
5-Mar-10
1785.55
1784
1684
1736.8
81
HDFCBANK
8-Mar-10
1810
1784.2
1684.2
1736.8
81
1711.2
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
HDFCBANK
9-Mar-10
1775
1811.2
HDFCBANK
10-Mar-10
1812
1814.45
HDFCBANK
11-Mar-10
1816
1826.95
1714.4
5
1726.9
5
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
1736.8
HDFCBANK
12-Mar-10
1827
1801.25
1701.2
5
HDFCBANK
HDFCBANK
15-Mar-10
16-Mar-10
1780
1805
1812.55
1804.6
1712.5
5
1704.6
Dif
91.93
1
60.23
1
55.73
1
52.88
1
52.68
1
25.68
1
22.43
1
-9.931
35.63
1
24.33
1
-
d2
8451.3
09
3627.7
73
3105.9
44
2796.4
2775.2
88
659.51
38
503.14
98
98.624
76
1269.5
68
591.99
76
1042.0
81
HDFCBANK
17-Mar-10
1804.6
1807.7
1707.7
1736.8
81
HDFCBANK
18-Mar-10
1812.4
1800.9
1700.9
1736.8
81
HDFCBANK
19-Mar-10
1814.8
1819.85
1719.8
5
HDFCBANK
22-Mar-10
1802
1837.1
1737.1
HDFCBANK
23-Mar-10
1835
1884
HDFCBANK
25-Mar-10
1880
1926.15
HDFCBANK
26-Mar-10
1931
1951.45
HDFCBANK
29-Mar-10
1628.85
1965.05
HDFCBANK
30-Mar-10
1965
1906.85
1784
1826.1
5
1851.4
5
1865.0
5
1806.8
5
HDFCBANK
31-Mar-10
1900
1933.5
Risk= d2/n
=81331.29/21
=62.2327
1833.5
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
1736.8
81
32.28
1
29.18
1
35.98
1
17.03
1
0.219
47.11
9
89.26
9
114.5
69
128.1
69
69.96
9
96.61
9
63
851.53
08
1294.6
32
290.05
5
0.0479
61
2220.2
7968.9
54
13126.
06
16427.
29
4895.6
61
9335.2
31
81331.
29
Symbol
Date
Open
Price
Close
Price
ICICIBANK
2-Mar-10
885.1
897.15
ICICIBANK
3-Mar-10
899.9
908.35
ICICIBANK
4-Mar-10
906
898.4
ICICIBANK
5-Mar-10
898.1
901.75
ICICIBANK
8-Mar-10
910
923.75
ICICIBANK
9-Mar-10
922
925.15
ICICIBANK
10-Mar-10
925
917.8
ICICIBANK
11-Mar-10
915
930.85
ICICIBANK
12-Mar-10
935.05
936.65
ICICIBANK
15-Mar-10
930
923.75
ICICIBANK
16-Mar-10
921
930.5
ICICIBANK
17-Mar-10
935
948.55
ICICIBANK
18-Mar-10
950.05
963.65
ICICIBANK
19-Mar-10
963
956.55
ICICIBANK
22-Mar-10
949
935.25
ICICIBANK
23-Mar-10
939
925.5
ICICIBANK
25-Mar-10
920
933.85
ICICIBANK
26-Mar-10
939
947.5
ICICIBANK
29-Mar-10
945
952.6
ICICIBANK
30-Mar-10
956.1
959.8
ICICIBANK
31-Mar-10
964.8
952.5
Risk= d2/n
=23.189/21
=1.0508
return avera
s
ge
dif
d2
1.361
0.326
1.035
1.072
0.939
0.326
0.613
0.376
-0.839
0.326 -1.165
1.357
0.406
0.326
0.080
0.006
1.511
0.326
1.185
1.404
0.342
0.326
0.016
0.000
-0.778
0.326 -1.104
1.220
1.732
0.326
1.406
1.978
0.171
0.326 -0.155
0.024
-0.672
0.326 -0.998
0.996
1.031
0.326
0.705
0.498
1.449
0.326
1.123
1.262
1.432
0.326
1.106
1.222
-0.670
0.326 -0.996
0.992
-1.449
0.326 -1.775
3.150
-1.438
0.326 -1.764
3.111
1.505
0.326
1.179
1.391
0.905
0.326
0.579
0.335
0.804
0.326
0.478
0.229
0.387
0.326
0.061
0.004
-1.275
0.326 -1.601
2.563
23.18
0.326
9
Symbol
Date
Open
Price
Close
Price
TATASTEEL
2-Mar-10
581.15
608.9
TATASTEEL
3-Mar-10
610
608.2
TATASTEEL
4-Mar-10
610
617.55
TATASTEEL
5-Mar-10
620
618.1
TATASTEEL
8-Mar-10
623.65
621.75
TATASTEEL
9-Mar-10
620
614.7
TATASTEEL
10-Mar-10
616.05
612.2
TATASTEEL
11-Mar-10
612
608.3
TATASTEEL
12-Mar-10
610
607.55
TATASTEEL
15-Mar-10
605.2
610.05
TATASTEEL
16-Mar-10
610.9
627.2
TATASTEEL
17-Mar-10
536
632.1
TATASTEEL
18-Mar-10
635
639.2
TATASTEEL
19-Mar-10
640.5
644.25
TATASTEEL
22-Mar-10
636.15
629.05
TATASTEEL
23-Mar-10
632
637.95
TATASTEEL
25-Mar-10
637
638.2
TATASTEEL
26-Mar-10
640
644.1
TATASTEEL
29-Mar-10
639.8
643.55
TATASTEEL
30-Mar-10
645
634.75
TATASTEEL
31-Mar-10
635
632.05
return
s
avera
ge
4.775
-0.295
1.238
-0.306
-0.305
-0.855
-0.625
-0.605
-0.402
0.801
2.668
17.92
9
0.661
0.585
-1.116
0.941
0.188
0.641
0.586
-1.589
-0.465
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
Risk= d2/n
=333.438/21
=3.9847
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
dif
3.611
-1.459
0.074
-1.470
-1.469
-2.019
-1.789
-1.769
-1.566
-0.363
1.504
16.76
5
-0.503
-0.579
-2.280
-0.223
-0.976
-0.523
-0.578
-2.753
-1.629
d2
13.03
9
2.129
0.005
2.162
2.157
4.076
3.200
3.128
2.451
0.131
2.263
281.0
69
0.253
0.335
5.199
0.050
0.952
0.274
0.334
7.580
2.652
333.4
38
Symbol
Date
Open
Price
Close
Price
SAIL
2-Mar-10
220
224.9
SAIL
3-Mar-10
225.4
226.6
SAIL
4-Mar-10
226.6
237
SAIL
5-Mar-10
238.85
234.5
SAIL
8-Mar-10
236.5
238
SAIL
9-Mar-10
238.05
233.7
SAIL
10-Mar-10
233
233.9
SAIL
11-Mar-10
234.25
235.35
SAIL
12-Mar-10
236
234.2
SAIL
15-Mar-10
236.9
229.85
SAIL
16-Mar-10
230
236.35
SAIL
17-Mar-10
238
239.65
SAIL
18-Mar-10
241
244.8
SAIL
19-Mar-10
248
247.3
SAIL
22-Mar-10
244.45
239.4
SAIL
23-Mar-10
241
242.15
SAIL
25-Mar-10
241.65
242.85
SAIL
26-Mar-10
244.5
244.05
SAIL
29-Mar-10
243.9
243.25
SAIL
30-Mar-10
246
244.2
SAIL
31-Mar-10
246.5
252.55
return
s
2.227
0.532
avera
ge
0.304
0.304
dif
1.923
0.228
4.590
-1.821
0.634
-1.827
0.386
0.470
-0.763
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
4.286
-2.125
0.330
-2.131
0.082
0.166
-1.067
-2.976
2.761
0.693
1.577
-0.282
-2.066
0.477
0.497
-0.184
-0.267
-0.732
2.454
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
-3.280
2.457
0.389
1.273
-0.586
-2.370
0.173
0.193
-0.488
-0.571
-1.036
2.150
0.304
Risk= d2/n
= 63.311/21
= 1.736
d2
3.699
0.052
18.36
6
4.517
0.109
4.543
0.007
0.027
1.138
10.75
8
6.036
0.152
1.620
0.344
5.616
0.030
0.037
0.238
0.325
1.073
4.624
63.31
1
Symbol
Date
Open
Price
Close
Price
BPCL
2-Mar-10
571
540.95
BPCL
3-Mar-10
542
541.9
BPCL
4-Mar-10
541
534.9
BPCL
5-Mar-10
536.8
540.25
BPCL
8-Mar-10
543
541.9
BPCL
9-Mar-10
546
536.45
BPCL
10-Mar-10
537
537.15
BPCL
11-Mar-10
536
530.05
BPCL
12-Mar-10
536
526.75
BPCL
15-Mar-10
537
528.2
BPCL
16-Mar-10
530
545.25
BPCL
17-Mar-10
547
538
BPCL
18-Mar-10
525
526.7
BPCL
19-Mar-10
530
522.6
BPCL
22-Mar-10
516
517.5
BPCL
23-Mar-10
529.7
511.6
BPCL
25-Mar-10
517
505.15
BPCL
26-Mar-10
505.15
510.1
BPCL
29-Mar-10
520
526.9
BPCL
30-Mar-10
530
522.1
BPCL
31-Mar-10
526
518.05
retuns
avera
ge
dif
-5.263
-0.018
-1.128
0.643
-0.203
-1.749
0.028
-1.110
-1.726
-1.639
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-4.400
0.845
-0.265
1.506
0.660
-0.886
0.891
-0.247
-0.863
-0.776
2.877
-1.645
0.324
-1.396
0.291
-3.417
-2.292
0.980
1.327
-1.491
-1.511
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
3.740
-0.782
1.187
-0.533
1.154
-2.554
-1.429
1.843
2.190
-0.628
-0.648
-0.863
Risk= d2/n
= 61.028/21
= 1.704
d2
19.35
7
0.713
0.070
2.267
0.436
0.785
0.794
0.061
0.744
0.602
13.99
0
0.612
1.409
0.284
1.331
6.523
2.042
3.396
4.796
0.394
0.420
61.02
8
Symbol
Date
Open
Price
Close
Price
HINDPETRO
2-Mar-10
349.7
338.55
HINDPETRO
3-Mar-10
340.5
341.85
HINDPETRO
4-Mar-10
341.85
339.75
HINDPETRO
5-Mar-10
342.4
340.6
HINDPETRO
8-Mar-10
345
344.3
HINDPETRO
9-Mar-10
345
342.2
HINDPETRO
10-Mar-10
342.5
339.1
HINDPETRO
11-Mar-10
341.1
331.25
HINDPETRO
12-Mar-10
331.25
331.95
HINDPETRO
15-Mar-10
332
328.1
HINDPETRO
16-Mar-10
331.7
334.05
HINDPETRO
17-Mar-10
335
331.25
HINDPETRO
18-Mar-10
328.65
323.35
HINDPETRO
19-Mar-10
325
321.35
HINDPETRO
22-Mar-10
315
317.6
HINDPETRO
23-Mar-10
317.7
313.45
HINDPETRO
25-Mar-10
313.5
308.15
HINDPETRO
26-Mar-10
311.9
310.1
HINDPETRO
29-Mar-10
316
320.4
HINDPETRO
30-Mar-10
320.4
316.9
HINDPETRO
31-Mar-10
317
318.55
return
s
-3.188
0.396
-0.614
-0.526
-0.203
-0.812
-0.993
-2.888
0.211
-1.175
0.708
-1.119
-1.613
-1.123
0.825
-1.338
-1.707
-0.577
1.392
-1.092
0.489
-0.712
Risk= d2/n
=26.496/21
= 1.123
avera
ge
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
dif
-2.476
1.108
0.098
0.186
0.509
-0.100
-0.281
-2.176
0.923
-0.463
1.420
-0.407
-0.901
-0.411
1.537
-0.626
-0.995
0.135
2.104
-0.380
1.201
d2
6.133
1.229
0.010
0.035
0.259
0.010
0.079
4.734
0.853
0.214
2.018
0.166
0.811
0.169
2.364
0.392
0.989
0.018
4.429
0.145
1.442
26.49
6
Symbol
Date
Open
Price
Close
Price
BHEL
2-Mar-10
2382
2428.1
BHEL
3-Mar-10
2442
2455.85
BHEL
4-Mar-10
2460.05
2446.65
BHEL
5-Mar-10
2454.3
2429.05
BHEL
8-Mar-10
2440
2431
BHEL
9-Mar-10
2439
2423.5
BHEL
10-Mar-10
2411
2432.45
BHEL
11-Mar-10
2430
2422.45
BHEL
12-Mar-10
2404
2379.45
BHEL
15-Mar-10
2380
2367.6
BHEL
16-Mar-10
2369
2379.55
BHEL
17-Mar-10
2384.7
2378.7
BHEL
18-Mar-10
2390
2383.45
BHEL
19-Mar-10
2388
2373.95
BHEL
22-Mar-10
2350
2333.65
BHEL
23-Mar-10
2349
2356.95
BHEL
25-Mar-10
2352.1
2381.95
BHEL
26-Mar-10
2389
2361.65
BHEL
29-Mar-10
2368
2394.8
BHEL
30-Mar-10
2400
2408.7
BHEL
31-Mar-10
2416.9
2390.65
return
s
1.935
0.567
-0.545
-1.029
-0.369
-0.636
0.890
-0.311
-1.021
-0.521
0.445
-0.252
-0.274
-0.588
-0.696
0.338
1.269
-1.145
1.132
0.362
-1.086
-0.073
Risk= d2/n
= 14.847/21
= 0.840
avera
ge
dif
-0.073
2.008
-0.073
0.640
-0.073 -0.472
-0.073 -0.956
-0.073 -0.296
-0.073 -0.563
-0.073
0.963
-0.073 -0.238
-0.073 -0.948
-0.073 -0.448
-0.073
0.518
-0.073 -0.179
-0.073 -0.201
-0.073 -0.515
-0.073 -0.623
-0.073
0.411
-0.073
1.342
-0.073 -1.072
-0.073
1.205
-0.073
0.435
-0.073 -1.013
d2
4.033
0.410
0.223
0.914
0.088
0.316
0.927
0.057
0.899
0.201
0.269
0.032
0.040
0.266
0.388
0.169
1.801
1.149
1.451
0.190
1.026
14.84
7
Symbol
Date
Open
Price
Close
Price
TATAMOTORS
2-Mar-10
720
798.05
TATAMOTORS
3-Mar-10
810
809.25
TATAMOTORS
4-Mar-10
808.9
813
TATAMOTORS
5-Mar-10
818
794.25
TATAMOTORS
8-Mar-10
800
797.65
TATAMOTORS
9-Mar-10
785
776.05
TATAMOTORS
10-Mar-10
778
778.75
TATAMOTORS
11-Mar-10
780
770.4
TATAMOTORS
12-Mar-10
773
760.9
TATAMOTORS
15-Mar-10
755
769.1
TATAMOTORS
16-Mar-10
773
786.05
TATAMOTORS
17-Mar-10
789.8
780.5
TATAMOTORS
18-Mar-10
782.7
780.3
TATAMOTORS
19-Mar-10
775.5
783.65
TATAMOTORS
22-Mar-10
777
760.2
TATAMOTORS
23-Mar-10
760
739.3
TATAMOTORS
25-Mar-10
745
725.2
TATAMOTORS
26-Mar-10
731.5
749.75
TATAMOTORS
29-Mar-10
753.1
740.6
TATAMOTORS
30-Mar-10
744.9
755.95
TATAMOTORS
31-Mar-10
758
757.7
return
s
10.84
0
-0.093
0.507
-2.903
-0.294
-1.140
0.096
-1.231
-1.565
1.868
1.688
-1.178
-0.307
1.051
-2.162
-2.724
-2.658
2.495
-1.660
1.483
-0.040
0.099
Risk=d2/n
=170.624/21
= 2.850
avera
ge
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
dif
10.74
1
-0.192
0.408
-3.002
-0.393
-1.239
-0.003
-1.330
-1.664
1.769
1.589
-1.277
-0.406
0.952
-2.261
-2.823
-2.757
2.396
-1.759
1.384
-0.139
d2
115.3
75
0.037
0.166
9.015
0.154
1.535
0.000
1.768
2.770
3.128
2.526
1.629
0.165
0.906
5.113
7.968
7.599
5.740
3.093
1.917
0.019
170.6
24
returns
1
0.3591
04
0.5714
61
1.4350
1
0.0683
4
0.2468
9
1.2792
21
0.5850
7
0.6735
46
0.9870
7
1.7649
94
1.1981
48
0.1206
58
1.7372
26
0.2787
7
0.1925
8
0.1967
47
avg
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
dif1
0.3747
7
returns2
0.0840
05
3.8888
89
0.9219
9
0.5376
3
1.3165
5
0.2625
56
1.5574
96
1.2948
87
0.5694
0.0071
23
0.8119
7
0.6892
12
0.9714
1
1.0541
31
0.6645
2
1.7806
6
1.9090
91
0.4514
4
0.5871
27
1.4193
5
1.2138
14
0.1363
24
0.2631
0.6948
23
2.1543
6
0.7378
1
0.2082
46
0.2124
13
1.1532
58
0.0347
22
1.7528
92
avera
ge
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
0.062
dif2
3.8268
89
0.9839
9
0.5996
3
1.3785
5
1.4954
96
0.0548
8
0.8739
7
0.9921
31
0.7265
2
1.8470
91
0.5134
4
0.6328
23
2.2163
6
0.7998
1
1.0912
58
0.0272
d1*d2
dif22
1.434
14.64
5
-0.578
0.968
0.851
0.360
-0.116
1.900
0.393
2.237
-0.071
0.003
0.498
0.764
0.684
0.984
0.706
0.528
3.289
3.412
-0.623
0.264
0.086
0.400
-3.885
4.912
0.210
0.640
0.227
-0.006
1.191
0.001
1.5499
82
1.4612
9
1.4992
7
2.6114
2
1.4299
7
0.0156
7
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
0.0156
7
8
1.5656
48
1.4456
3
1.4836
1
2.5957
5
1.4143
1
0.5804
2
0.062
1.1708
0.3342
6
0.5184
2
0.812
0.269
1.782
1.520
0.588
0.157
0.062
1.2328
0.3962
6
1.1831
0.062
1.2451
3.232
1.550
0.7051
28
0.062
0.6431
28
-0.910
0.414
8.604
37.11
8
0.062
0.0619
36
COV =D1*D2/D22
=8.604/37.118
=0.2318
Correlation co-efficient:R1, 2=cov1, 2/1 2
= 0.2318/1.1825*1.3294
= 0.1474
Returns of portfolio =
Rp1 = w1 r1 + w2 r2
= 0.5*-0.01567+ 0.5*0.061936
= 0.0231
Risk of portfolio: p =(w12 12 +w22 22 +2w1 w2 1 2 r1,2)
= 0.25*1.3983 +0.25*1.7673 +2*0.5*0.5*1.1825*1.3294*0.1474
= 0.9526
Return
s1
AVG
Dif1
return
s2
AVG
DIFF2
D1*D2
D22
91.93
1
60.23
1
55.73
1
52.88
1
52.68
1
25.68
1
22.43
1
1644.9
5
1736.8
81
1676.6
5
1736.8
81
1681.1
5
1736.8
81
1684
1736.8
81
1684.2
1736.8
81
1711.2
1736.8
81
1714.4
5
1736.8
81
1726.9
5
1736.8
81
1701.2
5
1736.8
81
1712.5
5
1736.8
81
1704.6
1736.8
81
1707.7
1736.8
81
1700.9
1736.8
81
1719.8
5
1736.8
81
-9.931
35.63
1
24.33
1
32.28
1
29.18
1
35.98
1
17.03
1
1737.1
1736.8
81
0.219
1784
1826.1
1736.8
81
1736.8
47.11
9
89.26
97.80
0
97.76
4
97.74
9
97.76
8
97.73
9
97.70
9
97.70
2
97.72
7
97.67
7
97.69
0
97.71
2
97.67
7
97.64
0
97.60
8
97.64
3
97.66
8
-
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
98.12
6
98.09
0
98.07
5
98.09
4
98.06
5
98.03
5
98.02
8
98.05
3
98.00
3
98.01
6
98.03
8
98.00
3
97.96
6
97.93
4
97.96
9
97.99
4
-
9020.8
57
9628.7
89
5908.0
39
9621.5
83
5465.7
94
9618.6
2
5187.3
22
9622.4
82
5166.1
54
9616.7
15
2517.6
39
9610.8
79
2198.8
59
9609.4
28
973.76
03
9614.3
11
3491.9
39
9604.5
56
2384.8
16
9607.0
49
3164.7
64
9611.4
44
2859.8
33
9604.6
37
3524.9
12
9597.3
22
1667.9
11
21.455
2
4617.3
6
-
9591.0
31
9597.8
79
9602.7
57
9612.0
81
1851.4
5
1736.8
81
114.5
69
1865.0
5
1736.8
81
128.1
69
1806.8
5
1736.8
81
69.96
9
1833.5
1736.8
81
96.61
9
97.71
5
97.66
8
97.65
3
97.62
6
97.60
4
97.69
2
1736.8
81
0.326
0.326
0.326
0.326
98.04
1
97.99
4
97.97
9
97.95
2
97.93
0
8752.0
2
11227.
1
12557.
9
6853.5
8
31
9602.7
92
9599.9
05
9594.5
16
9461.9
9590.2
95
41.343
08
201759
COV =D1*D2/D22
=41.343/201759
=2.0491
Correlation co-efficient:R1, 2=cov1, 2/
= 2.0491/62.2327*1.0508
= 0.0313
Returns of portfolio =
Rp1 = w1 r1 + w2 r2
= 0.5*1736.881+ 0.5*-97.692
= 917.2865
Risk of portfolio: p =(w12 12 +w22 22 +2w1 w2 1 2 r1,2)
=
0.25*3873.1765
0.25*1.1041
2*0.5*0.5*62.2327*1.0508*0.0313
= 31.1382
returns
1
4.7750
15
avera
ge
dif1
3.6110
1.164
15
returns
2
2.2272
73
avera
ge
dif2
D1*D2
D22
1.9232
0.304
73
6.945
3.699
0.2950
8
1.2377
05
0.3064
5
0.3046
6
0.8548
4
0.6249
5
0.6045
8
0.4016
4
0.8013
88
2.6681
94
17.929
1
0.6614
17
0.5854
8
1.1160
9
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
1.164
0.9414
56
1.164
0.1883
83
1.164
0.6406
25
0.5861
1.164
1.164
1.4590
8
0.0737
05
1.4704
5
1.4686
6
2.0188
4
1.7889
5
1.7685
8
1.5656
4
0.3626
1
1.5041
94
16.765
1
0.5025
8
0.5785
2
2.2800
9
0.2225
4
0.9756
2
0.5233
7
-
0.5323
87
4.5895
85
1.8212
3
0.6342
49
1.8273
5
0.3862
66
0.4695
84
0.7627
1
2.9759
4
2.7608
7
0.6932
77
1.5767
63
0.2822
6
2.0658
6
0.4771
78
0.4965
86
0.1840
5
-
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.2283
87
4.2855
85
2.1252
3
0.304
0.3302
49
2.1313
5
0.304
0.0822
66
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.1655
84
1.0667
1
3.2799
4
2.4568
7
0.3892
77
0.304
1.2727
63
0.5862
6
2.3698
6
0.304
0.1731
78
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.1925
86
0.4880
5
-
-0.333
0.316
0.052
18.36
6
3.125
4.517
-0.485
0.109
4.303
4.543
-0.147
0.007
-0.293
0.027
1.670
1.138
1.189
10.75
8
3.696
6.036
6.526
0.152
-0.640
1.620
0.339
0.344
5.403
5.616
-0.039
0.030
-0.188
0.037
0.255
0.330
0.238
0.325
21
1.5891
5
0.4645
7
1.1644
23
0.5778
8
2.7531
5
1.6285
7
1.164
1.164
0.2665
0.7317
1
2.4543
61
0.3038
46
0.304
0.5705
1.0357
1
0.304
2.1503
61
2.851
1.073
-3.502
31.32
3
4.624
63.31
1
COV =D1*D2/D22
=31.323/63.311
= 0.4947
Correlation co-efficient:R1, 2=cov1, 2/
= 0.4947/3.9847*1.73 = 0.0715
Returns of portfolio =
Rp1 = w1 r1 + w2 r2
= 0.5*1.1644 + 0.5*0.3038
= 0.7341
Risk of portfolio: p =(w12 12 +w22 22 +2w1 w2 1 2 r1,2)
= 0.25*15.877 + 0.25*3.0136 + 2*0.5*0.5*3.9847*1.736*0.0715
= 2.229
retuns1
5.2627
0.0184
5
1.1275
4
0.6426
97
0.2025
avera
ge
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
returns
dif1
4.3997
0.8445
5
0.2645
4
1.5056
97
0.6604
22
3.1884
5
0.3964
76
0.6143
0.5257
0.2029
avera
ge
dif2
D1*D2
D22
-0.712
2.4764
5
10.89
6
6.133
-0.712
1.1084
76
0.936
1.229
-0.026
0.010
0.281
0.336
0.035
0.259
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
0.0976
95
0.1862
99
0.5091
01
8
1.7490
8
0.0279
33
1.1100
7
1.7257
5
1.6387
3
2.8773
58
1.6453
4
0.3238
1
1.3962
3
0.2906
98
3.4170
3
2.2920
7
0.9799
07
1.3269
23
1.4905
7
1.5114
1
0.8627
7
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
-0.863
0.8860
8
0.8909
33
0.2470
7
0.8627
5
0.7757
3
3.7403
58
0.7823
4
1.1868
1
0.5332
3
1.1536
98
2.5540
3
1.4290
7
1.8429
07
2.1899
23
0.6275
7
0.6484
1
0.8115
9
0.9927
2.8877
2
0.2113
21
1.1747
0.7084
72
1.1194
1.6126
6
1.1230
8
0.8253
97
1.3377
4
1.7065
4
0.5771
1
1.3924
05
1.0923
8
0.4889
59
0.7116
2
-0.712
0.0995
9
0.2807
2.1757
2
-0.712
0.9233
21
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
-0.712
0.4627
1.4204
72
0.4074
0.9006
6
0.4110
8
1.5373
97
0.6257
4
0.9945
4
-0.712
0.1348
92
2.1044
05
0.3803
8
-0.712
1.2009
59
-0.712
-0.712
0.088
0.010
-0.250
0.079
0.538
4.734
-0.797
0.853
0.359
0.214
5.313
2.018
0.319
0.166
-1.069
0.811
0.219
0.169
1.774
2.364
1.598
0.392
1.421
0.989
0.249
0.018
4.608
4.429
0.239
0.145
-0.779
1.442
26.25
3
26.49
6
COV =D1*D2/D22
=26.253/26.496
= 0.9908
Correlation co-efficient:R1, 2=cov1, 2/
= 0.9908/1.704*1.123
= 0.5177
Returns of portfolio =
Rp1 = w1 r1 + w2 r2
= 0.5*-0.8627 + 0.5*-0.7116
= 0.78715
Risk of portfolio: p =(w12 12 +w22 22 +2w1 w2 1 2 r1,2)
= 0.25*2.9036 + 0.25*1.2611 + 2*0.5*0.5*1.704*1.123*0.5177
= 1.2395
returns
1
1.9353
48
0.5671
58
0.5447
1.0288
1
0.3688
5
0.6355
1
0.8896
72
0.3107
-
avera
ge
returns
dif1
2.0083
-0.073
48
-0.073
0.6401
58
0.4717
0.9558
1
0.2958
5
0.5625
1
0.9626
72
-0.073
-0.073
0.2377
-
-0.073
-0.073
-0.073
-0.073
-0.073
10.840
28
0.0925
9
0.5068
61
2.9034
2
0.2937
5
1.1401
3
0.0964
01
1.2307
7
-
avera
ge
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
dif2
D1*D2
D22
10.741 21.57
28
2
115.375
0.1915
9 -0.123
0.037
0.4078
61 -0.192
0.166
3.0024
2 2.870
9.015
0.3927
5 0.116
0.154
1.2391
3 0.697
1.535
0.0026 -0.003
7E-06
1.3297
7 0.316
1.768
- 1.578
2.770
1.0212
1
0.5210
1
0.4453
36
0.2516
0.2740
6
0.5883
6
0.6957
4
0.3384
42
1.2690
79
1.1448
3
-0.073
-0.073
0.9482
1
0.4480
1
0.5183
36
-0.073
0.1786
0.2010
6
0.5153
6
0.6227
4
-0.073
0.4114
42
-0.073
-0.073
-0.073
-0.073
1.3420
79
1.0718
3
1.1317
57
-0.073
1.2047
57
0.3625
-0.073
0.4355
-0.073
1.0131
1.0861
0.0729
6
-0.073
COV =D1*D2/D22
=19.286/170.624
= 0.1130
Correlation co-efficient:-
1.5653
3
1.8675
5
1.6882
28
1.1775
1
0.3066
3
1.0509
35
2.1621
6
2.7236
8
2.6577
2
2.4948
74
1.6598
1
1.4834
21
0.0395
8
0.0988
32
1.6643
3
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.099
1.7685
5
1.5892
28
1.2765
1
0.4056
3
0.9519
35
2.2611
6
2.8226
8
2.7567
2
2.3958
74
1.7588
1
1.3844
21
0.1385
8
-0.792
3.128
0.824
2.526
0.228
1.629
0.082
0.165
-0.491
0.906
1.408
5.113
-1.161
7.968
-3.700
7.599
-2.568
5.740
-2.119
3.093
0.603
1.917
0.140
0.019
19.28
6
170.624
R1, 2=cov1, 2/
= 0.1130/0.840*2.850
= 0.4720
Returns of portfolio =
Rp1 = w1 r1 + w2 r2
= 0.5*-0.0729 + 0.5*0.0988
= 0.08585
Risk of portfolio: p =(w12 12 +w22 22 +2w1 w2 1 2 r1,2)
= 0.25*0.7056 + 0.25*8.1225 + 2*0.5*0.5* 0.840*2.850*0.4720
= 1.6649
FINDINGS
Present project work has been undertaken to construct a portfolio using Markowitz theory .
Markowitz theory in applied to construct a portfolio using only two securities. According to this
theory five securities were selected from profitable sectors, their retunes were calculated using
previous and current prices. Using their returns risks are calculated during the project work
following facts were found.
Axis is a profit making company from banking industry which is having a returns of
13.5% and risk 59%. Both returns and risk are very high for this company.
SBI is a profit making bank from banking industry which is having a return of 54% and
risk only 28%. Comparing the risk and returns, risk is less for this return.
ICICI is the another bank but an MNC which is having a return of 56% and risk of
28.6%. comparing SBI, these are more than that.
Wipro is a good company from IT sector but its returns are negative i.e.; -13.9% and risk
is 24.5% which is very high for the returns.
Herohonda is a very good automobile company having a return of 24.6% and risk of
31.59% which is very high for these returns.
All five securities have corresponding returns and risk. These risks are used to calculate the
covariance for various combinations using two securities each time and correlation co-efficient.
The values are as follows.
portfolio name
Infosys &
wipro
Hdfc & Icici
Tata steel &
Sail
Bpcl & Hin
Bhel & Tata
motors
returns
risk
0.0231
917.2865
0.9526
31.1382
0.7341
0.78715
2.2293
1.2395
0.08585
1.6649
SUGGESTIONS:
The present project work has been undertaken to identify a best portfolio using different sets
of securities using their returns and risk along with correlation co-efficient on the basis of
analysis and findings, the following suggestions can be made the investors.
1) The best portfolio consists of the two companies Zuari industries and Asian paints with a
portfolio return of 2.177805 and portfolio risk 24.3944.
2) The best portfolio consists of the two companies Aurobindho pharmacy and Dabur
With a portfolio return of 0.43945 and portfolio risk 14.93772
3) The best portfolio consists of the two companies Indian bank and axis bank with a portfolio
return of 0.238295 and portfolio risk 22.9723
4) The best portfolio consists of the two companies California and Satyam software with a
portfolio return of 0.2277115 and portfolio risk 38.23
5) The best portfolio consists of the two companies Tata motors and Maruti suzuki with a
portfolio returns of 0.21949 and portfolio risk 8.3484.
CONCLUSION
The present project work has been undertaken to study the investment opportunities
available to investors.
These avenues are different for different profiles of investors.
However it is very important for an investor to identify the risk associated with the
returns of various securities.
In order to manage the risk associated with the returns one has to construct the
portfolio.
By using Markowitz theory a portfolio is constructed and the returns and risks are
calculated.
The entire project work is done to identify the best portfolio and it is found the results
are satisfactory.
Bibliography
-S kevin
Portfolio management
-V.K Bhalla
Websites :
www.nseindia.com
www.bseindia.com
www.icicidirect.com
www.valueresearch.com
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