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Original scientific paper
'(9(/23,1*6<67(0'<1$0,&602'(/6:,7+67(3-BY-67(3
APPROACH
MLUMDQD3HML-%DFK9ODWNRHUL
University of Zagreb, Faculty of economics, Zagreb, Croatia
{mpejic,vceric}@efzg.hr
Abstract: System dynamics is a powerful tool that enhances learning about company,
market and competitors; portrays the cognitive limitations on the information gathering and
processing power of human mind; facilitates the practice of considering opinions; and
supports building of "What if" scenarios. Although the literature on system dynamics
modeling is very rich with applications in many fields, not many papers on developing
system dynamics models were published so far. In this paper we portray current approaches
to the development of system dynamics models. These are (1) model development based on
influence diagram, (2) model development based on the identification of resources and their
states, (3) usage of generic structures for specific domain field, and (4) component strategy
for the formulation of system dynamics models. Validation is an important issue that none of
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with developing process of system dynamics models. This approach will be demonstrated on
the example of development of a simple inventory model.
Current approaches to the development of system dynamics models are: (1) model
development based on casual-loop diagram (Coyle, 1996), (2) model development based on
the identification of resources and their states (Wolstenholme, 1990), (3) usage of generic
structures for specific domain field (Wolstenholme, 2004), and (4) component strategy for
the formulation of system dynamics models (Forrester, 1968; Goodman, 1975). Validation is
an important issue that none of these approaches tackles.
Model development based on influence diagrams proposes building quantitative model
with system dynamics software using causal-loop diagrams. Casual-loop diagrams are very
suitable for explaining model structure to management at the beginning and at the end of the
modeling process. However, some problems may arise in causal-loop diagramming, both in
development of causal-loop diagrams and in the deriving system behavior from them. The
main problem is that causal-loop diagrams obscure the stock and flow structure of systems
(Richardson, 1986). Casual-loop diagrams are then used for deriving of both stock and flow
diagrams, as well as system dynamics equations.
System dynamics approach is based on identification of resources, their states and rates
at which resources change their states. Resources (levels or stocks) could be material, people,
cash, orders, etc. A state of the resource can be defined as any accumulation of the resource
which is relevant to the purpose of the model. The rate at which resources are converted
between states is represented by rate variables. Wolstenholme (1990) proposes creating the
structure of systems with the goal of recognizing resources and states. He proposes
identification of relevant resources related to the modeling goal, as well as states and rates at
which resources change. Based on this, stock and flow diagram and model equations are
derived.
Generic structures are relatively simple structures that occur in various situations (Albin
et al., 2001), and can help with the creation of dynamic hypotheses at the front end of the
modeling process as well as with communication on systemic insights at the back end of the
modeling process. In practice, it is often beneficial to use the archetypes in parallel
throughout the process to guide high-level thinking whilst detailed modeling is taking place
(Wolstenholme, 2004). In that way, stock and flow diagrams are created without any
preliminary preparation. However, by simply fitting the system to a generic structure, the
inexperienced modeler can easily use wrong generic structures that are not suitable for
particular system. (Breirova, 2001).
The most recent concept is the component strategy to the development of system
dynamics models. This approach concentrates on the formulation of the Forrester stock and
flow diagram, and incorporates the concept of an interaction matrix to assist in formulation
of such models (Burns, et al., 2002). In this strategy the quantities that will be included in the
model and their associated interactions are generated simultaneously. The goal of
introducing this strategy was to develop computer aids that could facilitate model
formulation in order to speed up the process of system dynamic model formulation. This
strategy would then divide the labor of modeling into human and computer part, where
computer part could be automated.
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3. 67(3-BY-67(3$33ROACH
Evaluation is a process in which users acquire confidence in the system dynamics model
(Richardson et.al, 1981). The experience shows that it is very important that the process of
model evaluation is conducted in parallel to the development of the model, rather than after
the model completion. It means that evaluation of the model should be an iterative procedure
conducted during all phases of the simulation modeling. This is especially important since it
is well known that too fast model development is WKH FRPPRQ EHJLQQHUV PLVWDNH. Most
frequently beginners develop whole models in a single stage, and conduct evaluation tests
only when the model is already finished. This approach cannot guarantee development of
high quality and robust model whose behavior and structure matches reality. Because of the
formerly mentioned problem with the use of casual-loop diagrams (causal-loop diagrams
obscure the stock and flow structure of systems) we recommend the development of the
stock and flow diagram right after the system analysis.
Because of all these we recommend development of the system dynamics model in
several steps:
1.
2.
Conducting the basic evaluation tests extreme condition tests, behavior sensibility
test and dimension consistency test
3.
Re-conducting aforementioned evaluation tests for the new version of the model
5.
If (a) these tests are not giving satisfactory results or if (b) the user on the basis of
understanding the system reach the conclusion that it is necessary to expand the
model with new feedbacks, step two is repeated and the whole procedure is
continued
6.
If the results of the aforementioned tests are satisfying, and the modeler concludes
that the model is complete, the other evaluation tests mentioned before are carried
out
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We describe here development of the inventory model in the company which solely
imports products, and GRHVQW KDYH any production capability. Model was developed using
Vensim system dynamics software.
The development of the inventory model is carried out through three steps. In the first
step the simple model of the inventory with supply and delivery is analyzed. ThiV PRGHOV
disadvantage is that in it the inventory can become negative. In the second step feedback is
added, which prevents the inventory to become negative. In the third step ordering new
products is added into the model.
inventory
supply
delivery
Evaluation of the model is done in the following way. Dimensional consistency test is
conducted by the 9HQVLPV built-in function, and it shows that the level units and the speed
are dimensional consistent. Extreme conditions test is carried out with two assumptions: (1)
delivery=0 and (2) supply=0.
It was shown that when delivery=0, inventory grows linearly (Figure 2). This kind of
behavior is consistent with the situation when company does not succeed in selling the
products, but still keeps on buying new ones. Since this kind of behavior is not realistic, the
model needs to be expanded so that the process of buying new products is formulated on the
basis of the demand information.
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45,000
1
1
1
1
30,000
1
1
1
15,000
1
1
1
1
1
16
Inventory: delivery = 0
24
32
Time (Month)
40
48
1
1
1
1
1
-14,250
1
1
1
-29,500
1
1
1
1
-44,750
1
1
-60,000
0
Inventory : supply = 0
16
24
32
Time (Month)
1
40
48
176
inventory ratio
effect of
inventory
ratio
Inventory
supply
delivery
DEMAND
The function of the inventory status is presented as follows (Figure 5). The abscissa
shows a current/desired inventory ratio, while the ordinate shows the effect of the inventory
state. The number of delivered products is calculated as a product of inventory state effect
and demand. The effect of inventory state depends on the ratio of current/desired number of
products on stock. For example, if the current/desired number of products ratio is 3/10, the
effect of inventory state is 0.5, what means that the management delivers half of the desired
quantity. The smaller current/desired inventory radio, management delivers a smaller part of
the requested quantity. If there inventory is empty, current/desired inventory radio equals to
zero. In this case the effect of inventory status also equals to zero, and management does not
delivery any products.
177
3
3
500 P
1,000 P/Month
1,000 P/Month
0
800
P
P/Month
P/Month
16
24
32
Time (Month)
40
48
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Inventory : Current1
P
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
supply : Current
P/Month
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3 P/Month
delivery : Current
Figure 6. Inventory model behavior with the demand of 1100 product per month
As in the previous step of model development dimensional consistency test is conducted
with the Venism software built-in function, and it is shown that the level units and the speed
are dimensionally consistent.
Extreme conditions test is conducted again, with two assumptions: (1) supply = 0 and
(2) demand = 0.
If the management stops buying the products and all other parameters are left unchanged
(inventory and desired inventory are 1000, demand is 1000) the inventory will decrease until
all he products are sold, i.e. until they reach the value 0, as seen in Figure 7.
178
750
1
500
250
Inventory: supply=01
3
Time (Month)
1
45,000
1
1
1
1
30,000
1
1
1
15,000
1
1
1
1
1
Inventory : Current 1
16
24
32
Time (Month)
1
40
48
179
1
2
750
3
1
500
23
250
3
1
1
2
0
0
1
2
1
2
16
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
24
32
Time (Month)
1
2
1
2
1
2
40
1
2
1
2
48
Inventory : Current 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Inventory : liberal policy 2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Inventory : restrictive policy
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
P
P
P
180
<expected demand>
desired inventory
inventory gap
effect of inventory ratio
inventory
effect of inventory
ratio lookup
Inventor
supply
delivery
products ordered
products delivered
DEMAND
DELIVERY TIME
TIME TO CORRECT
INVENTORY GAP
replacement ordering
new orders
Figure 11. Flow diagram of inventory model with constraint of delivery and ordering
Evidently no company works under ideal condition in which demand is always constant
and inventory always equals desired inventory. Therefore we will test the behavior of the
model in conditions where demand increases only once. It is assumed that demand increases
after 10 months from 1,000 products monthly to 1,500 products monthly, and it remains
unchanged until the end of the simulation. It this case the demand equation is
After the demand increases from 1,000 products to 1,500 products monthly, desired
inventory also changes from 1,500 products to 2,250 products (Figure 12). Since for the first
10 months inventory equals 1,500 products, the management has to order new products so
the inventory could grow to the desired level. However, when management orders product to
remove the deviation of inventory it does not take in consideration the time necessary for
delivering products from the supplier, what causes system oscillations. After the demand
181
3,000
1
2,000
1
1
1,000
0
1
Invnetorye : Current 1
19
37
Time (Month)
1
54
72
2,000
1 2 3 1 2 3
1,000
1
3
2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1
0
1
19
37
Time (Month)
1
2
1
2
54
1
2
1
2
1
2
72
1
2
1
2
P
P
P
Figure 13. Behavior of inventory with the ordering time of 1,3 and 5 months
Initial value of Inventory
Graph for Inventory
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1
19
37
Time (Mjesec)
54
72
JP
JP
JP
Figure 14. Behavior of inventory with the Initial value of inventory of 1000, 1500, 3000
products
183
10,000
5,000
0
1
19
37
Time (Mjesec)
54
72
JP
JP
JP
Figure 15. Behavior of inventory with desired inventory coverage of 1, 3 and 6 months
Delivery time
3,000
1,500
0
1
19
37
Time (Mjesec)
54
72
JP
JP
JP
Figure 15. Behavior of inventory with delivery time of 0.5, 1.5 and 3 months
5. CONCLUSION
In the paper VWHS-by-VWHSDSSURDFKWRGHYHORSLQJV\VWHPG\QDPLFVPRGHOZDV
shown. This approach consists of the following steps. In the first step the initial
version of the model is designed, which is tested by basic evaluation tests:
dimensional consistency test, extreme condition tests and behavior sensibility test. In
the second step the model is expanded with feedbacks, and the expanded version of
the model is tested using the aforementioned tests. The second step is repeated until
the model functions satisfactory. After that the other standard structure and behavior
184
tests are applied. This approach helps in achieving significant degree of confidence
and understanding of model EHKDYLRU7KHVWHS-by-VWHSDSSURDFKLVVKRZQRQWKH
example of development of the simple inventory model.
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Received: 16 March 2007
Accepted: 26 October 2007
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