Sino-India Relations
Sino-India Relations
Sino-India Relations
THE US FACTOR IN
SINO-INDIAN RELATIONS
INDIA'S FINE BALANCING
978-93-82169-56-7
First Published:
October 2015
Price:
Rs. 220/-
Published by:
Website: http://www.idsa.in
Cover &
Layout by:
Printed at:
Geeta Kumari
M/S A. M. Offsetters
A-57, Sector-10, Noida-201 301 (U.P.)
Mob: 09810888667
E-mail: [email protected]
Contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
1. INTRODUCTION
10
15
17
22
24
26
27
29
29
32
33
35
36
39
40
42
44
45
46
53
56
58
65
68
68
69
9. CONCLUSION
77
RECOMMENDATIONS
80
ANNEXURE I
81
ANNEXUREII
82
BIBLIOGRAPHY
83
I.
83
PRIMARY SOURCE :
84
A BOOKS
84
B. ARTICLES
86
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I acknowledge with sincere gratitude the help, support, inspiration and
encouragement of a number of individuals in the fruition of this humble
contribution in the form of this monograph. I am indeed grateful to
Dr. Arvind Gupta, former Director-General of the Institute for
Defence Studies and Analyses, and Deputy National Security Advisor,
for his inspiration and encouragement in the writing of the monograph.
I am equally grateful to Brig. Rumel Dahiya, Deputy Director- General
for his patience and support all through my stint at IDSA.
Incisive and insightful comments offered by Prof. Christopher S. Raj,
Prof. Chintamni Mahapatra of the Jawaharlal Nehru University and
Prof Sreeram Sunder Chaulia of O.P. Jindal University during the
presentation of the fellow paper in the fellow seminar at IDSA were
very helpful in embellishing the draft of the monograph. I am also
thankful to Shri H.K. Dua, Member of Rajya Sabha, Shri Sanjay Singh,
former secretary (East) of the Ministry of External Affairs, and Gen.
Y. M Bammy for going through the draft and offering valuable
suggestions.
I thank Dr. Jaydev Sahu, Additional Director in the Lok Sabha
Secretariat, my wife Sanjukta, daughters Swayamsiddha and Punya
Prabha for reading the proof and in editing the manuscript. Finally, I
am also thankful to Vivek Kaushik and Geeta Kumari for publishing
the monograph.
Rup Narayan Das
1
INTRODUCTION
In the narrative of the triangular India-China-US relations, United States
occupies some degree of strategic space in India-China relations,
notwithstanding the fact that Sino-Indian relations, like Sino-US
relations, or for that matter, Indo-US relations have their own dynamics
and imperatives. India and China are worlds two most populated
countries occupying vast swathe of territories. Both boast of rich
civilizational heritage. Similarities may end here. On the difference, most
significant is that India is a vibrant democracy, which achieved
independence through predominantly non-violent means, whereas
China is a communist country born out of a protracted armed struggle.
The two countries were, however, born contemporaneously. India
liberated from the British rule on August 15, 1947 and the Peoples
Republic of China came into being as a Communist nation on October
1, 1949. The nuances and ethos of western liberalism had impacted
the thought processes to a great deal on the minds of Indian leaders.
In the narrative of democratic peace theory, Indias credentials and
commitments to democracy, independence of judiciary and freedom
of press as contrasted with China play out in the triangular IndiaChina-US relations. In recent years, there has been a renewed recognition
and emphasis on shared values between the two countries.
The dynamics of the global and regional geo-politics have also found
their resonance in the triangular relationship among the three counties.
For example; it was the cold war geo-politics that greatly impacted the
relationship among the three countries during the Korean crisis in 1950s.
As far as the regional geo-politics is concerned, the Kashmir issue and
the US support to Pakistan, at times, found their resonance in the
triangular relations. The end of cold war, the seismic shift of geopolitics from the Atlantic to the Asia-Pacific, the rise of India and
China, globalization and emergence of mutual economic
interdependence have also impacted the triangular relations. Thus the
triangular relations need to be seen through the prism of all these
complex issues.
While the perceived trust deficit and security dilemma, both real and
imagined, between India and China, particularly after 1962 war, have
been one of the factors for Indo-US strategic and security cooperation,
it is seldom remembered that India and China enjoyed a degree of
camaraderie and strategic trust, though the term had not acquired the
salience then, in early 1950s, which enabled India to be a channel of
communication between China and USA. The war of 1962, however,
obliterated the mutual trust between the two countries. The adoption
of two competitive political systems and attendant economic
development model; and the emergence of the two Asian giants as
major powers in spite of the asymmetry between the two have provided
resonance to the persistent security dilemma and trust deficit between
India and China.
Realising the potential and possibilities of India to forge closer strategic
and security partnership with the USA, China extends overtures to
India to court New Delhi away from the US embrace. Similarly, India
occupies some strategic significance in the US strategy to hedge China
in its much touted Rebalancing or Pivot to Asia in the theatre of
Asia-Pacific, although India would like to assert that there is no such
element in Indias foreign policy. The China threat or Chinas assetive
behaviour not only provides a rationale for the Indo-US strategic
partnership, but also gives succor to the military-industrial complex of
the US, and to resurrect its economy. If Indo-US strategic relations
can cause consternation to China, Sino-Indian rapport may also cause
discomfort to USA. A G-2 between USA and China will also be an
issue of anxiety to India.
The monograph aims to determine the extent to which the US is a
factor as an intervening variable in the complex India-China relations.
The intervening variable works both as determinant and consequent
of the triangular relations. The study attempts to probe the research
question as to how China perceives U.S. policy towards India in
particular, and whether growing Indo-US ties can affect Chinas security
interest negatively. Related to this research question is how India is
trying to calibrate its relationship with both USA and China, and how
far India has been successful in this endeavour in the context of strategic
distrust and security dilemma. It endorses the assertion that skillful
maneuvering and manipulating of great power alignment can add to a
Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu, Jing-dong Yuan, China and India: Cooperation or Conflict, India
Research Press, New Delhi, 2003, p. 78.
2
THE KOREAN WAR
The Korean War broke out six months after the Communist assumed
power in China in 1949. The triangular relationship among India, China
and the USA was played out for the first time in the Korean Peninsula,
when North Korean forces invaded South Korea on June 25, 1950.
Indias actions at the UN were complex. While the crisis in the Korean
Peninsula found its echoes in the Indian Parliament, Indias proactive
role was played out in Beijing, the Korean Peninsula and at the UN
General Assembly at New York.2
At a time when the nuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula hardly finds
echo in the Indian Parliament in recent times, it is worth a while to
recall that Lok Sabha, the popular chamber of Indias bicameral
Parliament, was convened on July 31, 1950 to discuss the Korean crisis.
Addressing the members of Parliament, President Rajendra Prasad
said that Prime Minister Nehru had appealed to the Russian Premier,
Joseph Stalin and the Secretary of the United States of America, Dean
Acheson to exert their authority and power to localize the armed
struggle in Korea. He further said that India wanted to break the
deadlock in the Security Council of the United Nations over the
admission of the Peoples Republic of China, so that the international
tension might be eased and the way opened to a solution of the Korean
problem by discussion in the Security Council3. With his principle belief
in a peaceful settlement of disputes, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru,
at his own initiative, earlier on July 13, 1950 wrote to Dean Acheson
and Joseph Stalin, suggesting a broader approach arguing for admission
Shiv Dayal , Settlement of International Disputes Under United Nations ( S. Chand & Co.,Delhi,
1959); Robert Barnes, Branding an Aggressor: The Commonwealth, the United Nations
and Chinese Intervention in the Korean War, November 1950-January 1951, Journal of
Strategic Studies, vol.33, No.2, April 2010. pp.231-253.
Skand R. Tayal, India and the Republic of Korea: Engaged Democracies, Routledge, New Delhi,
2014, p. 28.
Dennis Kux, India and the United States: Estranged Democracies, National Defence University
Press, 1992, Washington, pp.73-74.
Robert Barnes, Branding Aggressor: The Commonwealth, the United Nations and
the Chinese Intervention in the Korean Was, November 1950-January 1951, Journal of
Strategic Studies, Vol.33,No.2,April 2010, p.235.
Han Suyin, Eldest Son, Zhou Enlai and the Making of Modern China, 1898-1976, Jonathan
Cape, London,1994, p.225.
Harry S. Truman, Memories, Years of Trial and Hope, Garden City; Doubleday&
Company,Inc;1956, pp.361-62.
10
Kux N.3, p.87, quoting Foreign Relations of The United States (FRUS), Vol. V, p. 1478.
11
3
1962
WAR:
THE
TURNING POINT
12
A.K. Damodaran, Foreign Policy in Action, in A Century History of the Indian National
Congress (1885-1985), vol.Four, Vikash Publishing House Private Limited, New Delhi,
1990, p.476.
When the Sino-Indian war was at its peak, Gailbraith met Prime Minister
Nehru on October 23, 1962 and strongly urged him to see how sensitive
the issue (Cuban missile crisis) was for the USA and to support the US
efforts in the U.N. to have U.N. inspectors go to the Cuban missile
sites.14
R.D. Pradhan, the Private Secretary to the late former Defence Minister
Y.V.Chavan, recalls in his book Debacle to the Revival that the request
unambiguously asked that the United States should also send planes
flown by American personnel to assist the Indian Air Force in any
battles with the Chinese in Indian air space and also two B-47 bomber
squadrons to enable India to strike at Chinese bases and air fields.
Making a plea for Nehrus request, Galbraith wrote to President
Kennedy, all his life Nehru had sought to avoid being dependent
upon the United States and the United Kingdom, most of his personal
reluctance to ask (or thank) for aid has been based on this prideNow
nothing is important to him, more personally than politically, than to
maintain the semblance of this independence. His age no longer allows
of readjustment. To a point we can, I feel, be generous on this15.
On October 26, 1962, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru made an appeal
to major world leaders for support and assistance against Chinese attack.
The letter said:
The issue involved is not one of small territorial gains, one
way or other, but standards of international behaviour between
neighbouring countries and whether the world will allow the
principles of Might is Right to prevail in international relations.
Finally he asserted:
In this hour of crisis, when we are engaged in resisting this
aggression, we are confident that we shall have your sympathy
13
Ramachandra Guha, India After Gandhi: The History of the Worlds Largest Democracy, Picador,
New Delhi, 2007, p. 339.
14
15
Ibid.
and the support of all countries, not only because of their friendly
relations with us, but also because our struggle is in the interests
of the world peace and is directed to the elimination of deceit,
dissimulation and force in international relations.16
16
R.D Pradhan, Debacle to Revival: Y B Chavan as Defence Minister, 1962-1965, Orient Longman,
1999, pp., 35-36.
17
Inder Malhotra, J.N. To JFK, Eyes only, The Indian Express, November 15, 2010; also
Letters from the darkest hour, The Indian Express, November 17, 2010. The Internet
editions, however, do not show Nehrus letters. Pl. see the hard copy of November 17
edition to view Nehrus two letters. Pl. see Annexure 1 and 2.
18
Ibid.
19
B.K.Nehru, Nice Guys Finish Second, Penguin India, New Delhi, 1997, p.404.
20
K. Subramanyam, U.S. Policy towards India, China Report, January-April 1972, p. 44.
21
ibid, p. 45.
22
Manu Puby, 1962 war hero Hercules to make a comeback, The Indian Express, July 5,
2010, accessed on February 1, 2015, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/
2547147/posts
23
24
Guha, n. 13, quoting from Galbraith to Kennedy, January 29,1963, copy in Dean Rusk
Papers, University of Georgia.
25
26
we ask that the elements of the Seventh Fleet be sent into the Bay of
Bengal, although this violated my rule that we do nothing that Indians
did not request27 Is there any causal connection between the
deployment of the Seventh Fleet and Chinas unilateral offer of cease
fire on November 20, 1962? According to K. Subramanyam, the
Chinese had offered unilateral cease fire on November 20. Enterprise,
the nuclear powered aircraft carrier that USA deployed in the Bay of
Bengal during the 1971 Bangladesh War took three days from Tonkin
Gulf to Singapore, one day to move up the Malacca Straits. Enterprise
is a much faster vehicle than the carriers deployed by the Seventh Fleet in
1962. Before one links up the Chinese offer of cease fire with any US
moves, some of these facts must be taken into account. On the other
hand, the Chinese had reasons to worry that their logistics were getting
over-extended and consequently their offer of unilateral cease fire was
a brilliant diplomatic move to cover up their military limitations.28
27
28
K. Subramanyam, U.S. policy towards India, The China Report, January- April,1972,
p. 47.
also claimed that Nehru, who sympathized with the Tibetans and had
been soured by Beijings heavy-handed tactics, did not oppose overt
American aid. However, since Nehru was still committed to maintaining
cordial ties with China, the best Mullik could offer was a wink and a
nod.29
Immediately after the 1962 war, USA assisted India in raising certain
paramilitary formations in the India-China border. The creation of
Tibet Force was one such instance, which was conceptualized to harness
the unconventional mind of the Tibetan refugees and convert them
into warriors. With the help of American financial aid and a CIA
instructor, General Sujan Singh Uban set up the camp in the tranquil
hill village of Chakrata. In the end, the Tibetan unit exceeded all
expectations. The Tibetans particularly excelled as parachutists and had
the distinction of conducting jumps at the altitude up to 15, 400 feet
using chutes specially procured by the CIA. A second joint CIA-IB
project involved raising a cadre of long-term Tibetan Agents that could
establish a resistance network inside their homeland. The agents would
receive extensive tradecraft training at a CIA base in Colorado. As the
project was originally conceived, India would provide limited assistance
during their infiltration back into Tibet.30
A third joint programme with the objective to lend air support to the
Tibetan commandos and agents was the Aviation Research Center
(ARC), a covert aviation outfit for use along the India-China border. It
was actually a subsection of the IB and was staffed by IB officers and
aircrews from the Indian Air Force. Its aircrafts consisted of transport
and light planes mostly from USA, courtesy the CIA. Mr. BijuPatnaik,
the then Chief Minister of Odisha and a veteran Parliamentarian, was
instrumental in setting up the project. Patnaik visited USA to work out
the concept with the CIA. The American saw merit in the plan and
dispatched two officers to India for initial fact finding tour. Rameshwar
Nath Kao was its first Director. Patnaik had also provided land for the
air base at Charbatia in Odisha for the use of ARC31.
29
M.S. Kohli and Kenneth Conboy, Spies in the Himalayas: Secret Mission and Perilous Climbs,
Harper Collins , New Delhi, 2003, p.15.
30
Ibid, p, 16.
31
Ibid.
32
Ibid, p.23.
33
Ibid, p.24.
the incident. According to this report, the use of Charbatia, was agreed
during a meeting between President Kennedy and the visiting Indian
President S. Radhakrishnan on June 3, 1963, but Indian work to improve
it took longer than expected, so the missions presumed from Thailands
Takhili. The report further said that the first mission out of Charbatia
did not take place until May 1964. The operation ceased consequent
upon the death of Prime Minister, Jawahar Lal Nehru. The US
detachment stayed on at Charbatia till 1967 and served as an adjunct
to the main operational base in Thailand.
The report further said, the pilots and aircraft left Charbatia, but others
remained in place to save staging costs. In December 1964, when SinoIndian tensions increased along the border, Detachment G returned to
Charbatia and conducted three highly successful missions, satisfying all
requirements for the Sino-Indian border region. By this time, however,
Takhli had become the main base for Detachment Gs Asian operations,
and Charbatia served merely as a forward staging base. The information
gathered from aerial surveillance was yet another aspect of the close
Indo-US cooperation in the immediate aftermath of the Sino-Indian
war of 1962.
34
Ted Widmar and Caroline Kennedy, Listening In: The Secret White House Recordings of John
F. Kennedy, http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB434/docs/U2%20%20Chapter%205.pdf
35
Strobe Talbott, Engaging India: Diplomacy, Democracy and the Bomb, Penguin Viking, New
Delhi, 2004, p.11.
4
POST 1962 DEVELOPMENTS
After the Sino-Indian war of 1962, Indias policy of non-alignment
was questioned both inside as well as outside the Parliament. There
was also demand that India must align with the West, particularly the
USA. Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru initiating the resolution on the
proclamation of emergency and aggression by China on November
8, 1962 in Lok Sabha acknowledged the swift help extended by western
democracies like the USA and the UK, France and friendly countries
like the Soviet Union. There were demands from the member(s) to
acknowledge this in the resolution.36
36
between the Prime Minister of India and the Prime Ministers of Britain,
Canada, Australia and New Zealand, and the President of the U.S.A to
the effect that India requested and these countries agreed that if at any
time during the next ten years, if China threatened to violate the territorial
integrity and the independence of India, these countries would
automatically come to the defence of India.37
Nehru in his reply to Ghosh said that the proposal was tantamount to
a military alliance and that it would be bad for India as well as from
the point of view of world peace. Nehru, however, allowed him to
visit USSR and USA to canvass support for India. Ghosh, thus, visited
Washington in March 1963 and interacted with the key men in the US
Senate, the House of Representatives and the American Administration,
and rounded it off with a talk with President Kennedy himself. Ghosh
found the response of the US Senators extremely supportive and
sensitive to the Indian cause. He was given a seat on the Senate floor to
sit with the Senators to watch the proceedings. He felt that there was
no lack of feeling for India and they were eager to hear all that he had
to say as Mr. Nehrus unofficial emissary. The forty odd leading men
with whom he discussed the India-China situation included most of
the leading members of the Senate Armed Services Committee and
the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and their counterparts in the
House as well as leading men in the Administration like Secretary Rusk,
Secretary McNamara and Mr. Harriman. He also met Mr. McGeorge
Bundy, the National Security Adviser to President Kennedy.
Thus, the post 1962 witnessed arguably the high point of India-US
security ties, which coincided with the Cuban missile crisis, and
Washingtons relief programme, which began in the early 1950s and
extended into the next decade. According to a Canadian scholar, who
had worked on India, In the late 1950s and early 1960s, both
humanitarian and security concerns worked to Indias advantage in the
containment of China. In the view of the State Department, South
Asia became a testing ground for the free world. In this area, it was
37
38
5
1971-1991: SINO-US CONVERGENCE,
INDO-US ESTRANGEMENT
AND
39
40
Joint Communiqu of the United States of America and the Peoples Republic of
China, February 28, 1972, https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus196976v17/d203
41
Sidhu, n.1, p. 20
between the USA and China. The disintegration of the erstwhile USSR
and the end of cold war also resonated in the triangular relationship
among the three countries. It paved the way for engagement between
India and China. US didnt construe Sino-Indian engagement detrimental
to its interest. USAs strategy, on the contrary, was to checkmate India
by empowering Pakistan. This was also the period during which the
Indo-US strategic partnership was yet to start. All these factors put
together provided a very conducive geo-strategic environment for a
heightened engagement between India and China.
Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi visited China in 1988, during which the
Joint Working Group (JWG) for settlement of the border dispute
was established. The visit created a very conducive pitch for SinoIndian engagement. Rajiv Gandhi, however, didnt live long to carry
forward Sino-Indian engagement to greater heights. The responsibility
fell on the succeeding government headed by Narasimha Rao. It was
against this backdrop that the visit of then Defence Minister Sharad
Pawar to China took place in July 1993. Pawars was the first ever visit
by a Defence Minister of India to China. During Pawars visit, the
Chinese military leadership emphasized the importance of troop
reduction in the border region as a result of prohibitive costs.
The visit of Defence Minister Pawar was followed by the visit of
Prime Minister, P.V. Narashimha Rao in September 1993, during which
an important Confidence Building Measure (CMB), the Agreement on
the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control in the
India-China Border Area, was signed. The Agreement was indeed a
breakthrough. It affirmed that the India-China boundary question shall
be resolved through peaceful and friendly consultations and that neither
side shall use or threaten to use force against the other. It also stipulated
that pending an ultimate solution of the boundary question between
the two countries, the two sides shall strictly observe the Line of Actual
Control (LAC) and that no activities of either side shall overstep the
LAC.
The Agreement further envisaged that: (1) each government will keep
its military forces in the area along the LAC to a minimum level
compatible with the friendly neighbourly relations between the two
countries, (2) that the two sides agree to reduce their military forces
along the LAC in conformity with the requirement of the principle of
42
Nuclear Anxiety; Indians letter to Clinton on the Nuclear Testing, The New York
Times, May 13, 1998, http://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/13/world/nuclear-anxietyindian-s-letter-to-clinton-on-the-nuclear-testing.html
Indo-US relations hit rock bottom in June 1998. While Bill Clinton
was upset with India immediately after Pokhran, his anger only seemed
to increase in the following weeks.43Clinton called the tests selfdefeating, wasteful and dangerous and said they would make the
people of India and Pakistan poorer and less secure. He bore down
harder on India than Pakistan, accusing the BJP government of betraying
the ideals of non-violent democratic freedom and independence at
the heart of Gandhis freedom struggle to end colonialism on the
Indian subcontinent. He applauded Chinas willingness to chair the
Geneva meeting of the P-5, citing it as further evidence of the
important role China can play in meeting the challenges of the twenty
first century and constructive Chinese leadership that will be essential
to the long-term resolution of issues involving South Asia.44
43
William H. Avery, Chinas Nightmare, Americas Dream: India as the next global power, Amaryllis,
New Delhi, 2012, p. 46.
44
Strobe Talbott, Engaging India: Diplomacy, Democracy and the Bomb, Penguin Viking, New
Delhi, 2004, p.74.
45
Statement of Official Spokesman, Ministry of External Affairs, New Delhi, June 27,
1998, accessed on February 1, 2015, http://fas.org/news/india/1998/06/980629-goi.htm
47
Chinas Statement on Indias Nuclear Tests, Beijing Review, June 1-7,1998, p.7
The Clinton-Vajpayee joint statement: The full text, accessed on February 1, 2015,
http://www.rediff.com/news/2000/sep/16pmus2.htm
6
INDO-US STRATEGIC CONVERGENCE AND
THE SINO-INDIAN TRUST DEFICIT
It is an irony of history that two of worlds largest and most vibrant
democracies couldnt maintain the best of relations in the post-war
years. What prevented the two democracies from coming together?
Perhaps the most plausible reason for this yawning gap was Indias
decision to aim for a socialist pattern of regime, giving primacy to the
state sector of the economy, and not the corporate sector as in the
USA. Indias Non-Aligned policy, which regarded Soviet Union as a
natural ally of the Non-Aligned Movement, and its leading role there
further, divided the two countries; Indias friendship treaty with the
Soviet Union in 1971 had the same effect. Indias victory in the
Bangladesh War of 1971 with Pakistan, then a close ally of the USA,
established Indias pre-eminent position in South Asia and further
heightened the hiatus of close cooperation between the two countries.
The prejudiced mind of the legislature (Congress) and the executive
bureaucracy in the USA also did not help the relationship to improve,
and there were no serious efforts on part of the intelligentsia, academia,
or media to correct popular perceptions and predilections.50
What changed the situation, as mentioned earlier, was the disintegration
of the Soviet Union and the end of Cold War. Yet another aspect of
the contour and contents of geopolitics has been the tectonic shift
from the West to the Asia-Pacific. What provided resonance to all
these changes and transformations in Indo-US relations was Indias
own economic reform and liberalization, which India initiated during
the same period.
50
51
Address by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Asia Society, accessed on July 16, 2012, http://
www.asiasociety.org/policy/address-shri-atal-bihari-vajpayee
52
Ashley J. Tellis, India as a New Global Power( India Research Press,New Delhi, 2005), p.2.
announced on July 27, 2007 that they had reached agreement on the
text of a nuclear cooperation agreement.
In terms of the bilateral relationship between the two countries, the
Indo-US nuclear deal is unprecedented. Indias nuclear explosion in
1974 had soured the relationship between the two countries and the
US Congress retaliated by passing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act
of 1978, imposing tough new requirements for US nuclear exports to
non-nuclear weapon states-full scope safeguards and termination of
exports if such a state detonates a nuclear explosive device or engage
in activities related to acquiring or manufacturing of nuclear weapons,
among other things. Internationally, the United States created the Nuclear
Supplier Group (NSG) in 1975 for nuclear transfers for peaceful
purposes, to help ensure that such transfers would not be diverted to
unguarded nuclear fuel cycles or nuclear explosive activities.
History was rewritten when the same USA put all its influence at the
same NSG to get a nod for the Indo-US nuclear deal, and President
George Bush put his best into facilitating a smooth passage of the
Indo-US nuclear deal for the approval of Congress. The nuclear deal
ended what is called Indias decades-long apartheid and paved the way
for India to sign similar deals with other countries, reflecting the deals
global implications beyond bilateral relations between India and the
US.
Never before in the history of the US Congress has such an issue
related to Indo-US relations been as intensely debated as the Indo-US
nuclear deal. Unlike in a parliamentary forum of government, in which
foreign policy issues are dealt with primarily by the executive, the
legislature in a presidential form of government such as the US wields
ultimate authority and grants its seal of approval to foreign policy
postulates and pronouncements. The passage of the US-India Civil
Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, also known as the 123 Agreement,
in the House of Representatives and earlier in the all-powerful Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, was unprecedented, demonstrating
bipartisan support in the House of Representatives and ultimately
garnering a 298-117 backing.
The Bill received overwhelming support in the House because of
sustained canvassing and campaigning by the Congressmen sympathetic
53
Aziz Hanifa, US law makers urged to support Nuclear Deal in Congress, Rediff
news, September 17, 2008.
54
55
C. Raja Mohan, Sleeping in New Delhi, The Indian Express, January 10, 2012, accessed
on February 1, 2015, http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/sleeping-in-new-delhi/
897876/
56
ibid
57
David Watts, Blunting the NPT Regime, Asian Affairs, May 2006, pp. 4-5
58
59
60
61
China backs Indo-US nuclear deal, Rediffnews, accessed on February 1, 2015, http:/
/www.rediff.com/news/2006/dec/13ndeal.htm
The National Security Strategy of the USA, unveiled in May 2010, also
saw India, China, and Russia as the key centers of influence in the
contemporary world countries with whom Washington would like
to deepen its partnership. Certain bilateral relationships such as US
relations with China, India, and Russia will be critical in building
broader cooperation in areas of mutual interest, the fifty-two-page
62
Condoleeza Rice address at Sofia University, Tokyo, Japan, March 19, 2005, accessed on
February 1, 2015, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/0501qus_china.pdf
63
64
India among key centers of influence in Obama security strategy, Hindustan Times,
May 28, 2010, accessed on February 1, 2015, http://www.hindustantimes.com/worldnews/Americas/India-among-key-centres-of-influence-in-Obama-security-strategy/
Article1-549620.aspx
65
Jayant Prasad, Estrangement and Engagement, The Hindu, January 16, 2014, accessed
on February 1, 2015, http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/
estrangement-and-engagement/article5580472.ece
66
the countries in the region, particularly American allies like Japan and
South Korea, and other countries like Vietnam, which has adversarial
relationship with China. Chinas assertiveness in the South China Sea
and Americas strong advocacy for freedom of navigation and the Sea
Lines of Communication (SLOCS) have offered challenges to India
to calibrate a nuanced approach to the Asia-Pacific, which can be
discerned from Indias foray into the South China Sea. India has
maintained that its engagement in the South China Sea is purely for
commercial purposes to explore hydrocarbon. Secondly, India is not a
party to South China Sea and that the dispute in the South China Sea
should be resolved by the concerned countries in accordance with
international law. Thirdly, what riles China, and which supports US
position is Indias articulation of freedom of navigation. Indias strategic
autonomy on various issues on Sino-Indian relations and Indo-US
relations have been reiterated by India from time to time including
during President Obamas address to the members of Indian
Parliament. While media paid attention to Obamas speech, little attention
was paid to the opening remark by the Vice-President of India, Hamid
Ansari, who is the Chairman of the Upper House of Indian Parliament.
In his opening remark he very thoughtfully said, As vibrant
democracies, we cherish the right to disagree within a framework of
our endeavour for the common good67
The appeal to exhort India was reiterated when US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton visited India, on July 2011. Speaking in Chennai she
said, Much of the history of the 21st Century will be written in Asia
which, in turn, will be influenced by the partnership between the US
and India and its relationship with neighbours.68 She said that India
could build a leadership role in the Asia-Pacific in forums like the East
Asia Summit and the Asian Regional Forum, contribute more to
67
Address by the Vice-President of India and Chairman, Rajya Sabha, Shri Mohammad
Ansari, The Journal of Parliamentary Information, Vol. Lvii, No 1, March 2011.
68
As China looms, US tells India to lead Asia, Hindustan Times, July 21, 2011, accessed on
February 1, 2015, http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/Chennai/As-Chinalooms-US-tells-India-to-lead-Asia/Article1-723313.aspx
69
US President Barack Obamas speech to parliament, The Australian, November 17, 2011,
accessed on February 1, 2015, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/obamain-australia/obamas-speech-to-parliament/story-fnb0o39u-1226197973237
70
Harsh V. Pant, Tectonic rumblings in the region, Indian Express, January 11, 2012.accessed
on February 1, 2015, http://www.indianexpress.com/news/tectonic-rumblings-inthe-region/898178/
71
P.S. Suryanarayan ,U.S. move tormentor India in new East Asia, The Hindu, February
22, 2011.
There seemed to be slight moderation in US strategy towards AsiaPacific with the exit of Ms. Hillary Clinton and the assumption of the
position of the secretary of state by John Kerry, presumably soft
towards China. But when Tom Donilon, the US National Security
Advisor, while speaking at the Asia Forum, said, US and Indian interests
powerfully converge in the Asia-Pacific, where India has much to give
and much to gain. South East Asia begins in Northeast India, and we
welcome Indias efforts to look East, from supporting reforms in
Burma to trilateral cooperation with Japan to promoting maritime
security72.It clearly conveyed the message that there would be change
with continuity as regards USAs engagement with India as far as Asia
Pacific is concerned.
This stance of USA was further reiterated by the Secretary of Defence
Chuck Hagel in his speech at the Shangri-la dialogue in Singapore in
June, 2013. Essentially, he was elucidating on the USAs strategy of
rebalancing in the Asia-Pacific. After mentioning the security
cooperation with treaty allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia,
Philippines, and Thailand, he alluded to such cooperation with other
allies like Singapore, New Zealand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Mynamar.
Referring to India, he first of all alluded to the US-Japan-India trilateral
cooperation. Articulating on India, he said that an important example
of this security cooperation was with India, one of the leaders in the
broader Asian region, where US is moving beyond purely defense
trade towards technology sharing, technology trade and co-production.
He further said, As the worlds largest democracy, Indias role as a
stabilizing power is of growing importance with the increase of trade
and transit between the India and the Pacific Oceans. The United Stated
considers Indias efforts to enhance its military capabilities as a welcome
contribution to security in the region. Elaborating further, he said,
Our vision for Asia-Pacific region is an open and inclusive one. Along
with India, other rising powers also have a special role to play in a
72
Indo-US ties one of the defining 21st century partnerships: US security adviser Tom
Donilon, The Economic Times, March 12, 2013, accessed on February 1, 2015, http:/
/articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-03-12/news/37651075_1_adviser-tomdonilon-northeast-india-asia-society
future security order as they assume the responsibilities that come with
growing stakes in regional stability. To that end, a critical element of
our long term strategy in Asia is to seek to build strong relationships
with rising powers-including India, Indonesia and China. The priorities
of the countries in the pecking order are quite clear. With regard to
China, he said, Building a positive and constructive relationship with
China is also an essential part of Americas rebalance to Asia. The
United States welcomes and supports a prosperous and successful
China that contributes to regional and global problem solving. To this
end, the United States has consistently supported a role for China in
regional and global economic and security institutions, such as the G20,
We encourage our allies and partners to do the same.73 The expectation
from India as compared with China is loud and clear.
If these statements of US officials are deconstructed, it clearly suggests
the hedging strategy of USA towards China and expected role of
India in this exercise. Considering Chinas military rise and the mutual
economic interdependence between USA and China, and Indias
compulsions to manage its tenuous relations with China, USA adopts
a hedging strategy .According to George J.Gilboy and Eric
Higginbotham, over the last decade, US. policies towards China
and India appear increasingly to reflect an underlying assumption that
India, a democracy, is more likely to foreign policies commensurate
with US interests than China, an authoritarian system with roots in
both imperial traditions and communism. Extrapolating from
democratic peace theory, he further writes that lack of common values
and institutions is said to make international conflict with China more
likely than with India In support of the assertion, the authors quote
US Senator John McCain who opines, Until China moves towards
political liberalization, our relationship will be based on periodically
shared interest rather than the bedrock of shared values. They further
quote Winston Lord, US ambassador to China during the Clinton
73
74
George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham, Chinese and Indian Strategic Behaviour,: Growing
Power and Alarm, Cambridge University Press, New Delhi, 2012, pp. 53-55.
75
William H. Avery, Chinas Nightmare, Americas Dream: India as the Next Global Power,
Amaryllis, New Delhi, 2012,p.xvi.
76
Be Strong Enough to Disagree with China: Ex-US official, Economic Times, December
7, 2013, accessed on February 1, 2015, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/
2013-12-07/news/44909530_1_south-china-shyam-saran-east-asia
77
Binod Singh, Clintons India visit reached no consensus on fighting terrorism, China
Daily, July 27, 2011, accessed on February 1, 2015, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/
opinion/2011-07/26/content_12985144.htm
78
Qin Jize and Li Xiaokun, China circled by chain of US anti-missile systems, China
Daily, accessed on February 1, 2015,http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2010-02/
22/content_9481548.htm
79
John W. Garver and Fei-Ling Wang, Chinas Anti-encirclement Struggle, Asian Security,
6.3(2010), pp. 238-261.
80
Ananth Krishnan, Chinas Communist Party sees India as part of U.S. containment
strategy, The Hindu, February 12, 2011, accessed on February 1, 2015, http://
www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/chinas-communist-party-sees-india-aspart-of-us-containment-strategy/article1415091.ece
81
http://opinion.globaltimes.cn/commentary/2011-03/634998_3.html
82
Sutirtho Patranobis, Paper calls for China-India alliance against US, Hindustan Times,
February 21, 2012, accessed on February 1, 2015, http://www.hindustantimes.com/
world-news/China/Paper-calls-for-China-India-alliance-against-US/Article1-814493.aspx
83
Rajat Pandit, India strikes a fine balance with combat exercises with US, China, The
Times of India, November 5, 2013, accessed on February 1, 2015, http://
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-strikes-a-balance-with-combat-exercises-withUS-China/articleshow/25226511.cms
7
INDIAS CALIBRATED APPROACH
Despite the US attempts to mentor India to balance China in the AsiaPacific, New Delhi has calibrated its approach to the region and China
with a great degree of finesse. The reality has been that this strategy is
easier said than done, but such is the challenge before diplomacy. Indias
approach has been to prod China to be a responsible stakeholder to
ensure and facilitate peace and stability in the region through institutional
mechanism like the East Asia Forum, the ASEAN Regional Forum,
and ADMM Plus. US Secretary of Defense Leone Panetta, during his
visit to India in June 2012 articulated the same sentiments in his address
at Indias Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) when he
said, The United States supports South-east Asias multilateral forums
such as ADMM Plus. These mechanisms will prevent and manage
regional tensions Indias voice and involvement in these international
forums will be critical. Panetta said that defense cooperation with
India is the linchpin in the American rebalancing strategy, and that
India is one of the countries whom US would help develop the
capabilities to share common values. Turning to China, he hastened to
add, As the United States and India deepen our defense partnership
with each other, and both of us will also seek to strengthen our relations
with China. He further asserted that the US recognizes that China has
a critical role to play in the security and prosperity in the region The
United States welcome the rise of a strong, prosperous, and a successful
China that plays a greater role in global affairs and respects and
enforces the international norms that have governed this region for six
decades.84
84
http://idsa.in/keyspeeches/LeonEPanettaonPartnersinthe21stcentury, accessed on
February 1, 2015.
85
Lan Lan and Qin Jize, Rio reflects efforts of developing nations, China Daily, June
22, 2012, http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-06/22/content_15517845.htm,
accessed on February 1 , 2015.
86
Manmohan Singhs speech on India-China relations at the Central Party School, Beijing,
The Hindu, October 24, 2013, http://www.thehindu.com/news/resources/manmohansinghs-speech-on-indiachina-relations-at-the-central-party-school-beijing/
article5268097.ece, accessed on February 1, 2015.
that President Obama and Prime Minister Singh pledged to make the
next decade equally as transformative, challenging their governments
to reach the full potential of this partnership, particularly in the areas of
security cooperation, (emphasis added) bilateral trade and investment, energy
and environment, higher education, and global architecture. Applauding
bilateral defense cooperation, including trade and military exercises;
both sides expressed satisfaction with the progress achieved so far in
defence relations. They emphasized the need for more intensive defence
cooperation. The leaders reiterated their desire to further strengthen
defense trade cooperation endorsing a Joint Declaration on Defence
Cooperation as a means of enhancing their partnership in defence
technology transfer, joint research, co-development and co-production.
President Obama encouraged the further participation of US firms in
partnering Indias efforts to enhance defence capabilities.87
During the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to USA, a Joint
Declaration on Defence Cooperation between the two countries was
signed. The Joint Declaration proclaimed that the USA and India shares
common security interest and place each other as their closest partners.
Spelling out further details of the defence cooperation, it said that it
includes defence technology transfer, trade, research, co-development,
and co-production of for defence article and services including the
most advanced and sophisticated technology. It further said that the
United States and India are also committed to protecting each others
sensitive technology and information. It also said that the US will
continue to support Indias full membership in four international export
control regimes which would further facilitate technology sharing.88
87
Joint Statement on Prime Ministers Summit Meeting with President Barack Obama in
Washington D.C (September 27, 2013), http://www.mea.gov.in/bilateraldocuments.htm?dtl/22265/Joint+Statement+on+Prime+
Ministers+Summit+Meeting+with+President+Barack+
Obama+in+Washington+DC+September+27+2013ar ticle.htm?22265/
Joint+Statement+on+Prime+Ministers+Summit+Meeting+with+
President+Barack+Obama+in+Washington+DC+September+27+2013, accessed on
February 1, 2015.
88
89
Aziz Haniffa, US army chief: Growing ties with India not to contain China, Rediff,
http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-us-army-chief-growing-tieswith-india-not-to-contain-china/20130805.htm, accessed on February 1, 2015.
90
Ibid.
trying their best to repair the damage and put the relationship back on
the track. It was in this backdrop that Dr. S. Jaishankar, who demitted
office as Indias ambassador to China, took over the charge as Indias
ambassador to the US from Ms. Nirupama Rao, consequent upon the
end of her tenure. In an address at the Carnegie Endowment, identifying
the key drivers of Indo-US relationship, he said that first and foremost
was the geo-strategic and political convergence, something that could
manifest itself after the Cold War91. Quite significantly, he said that the
new level of the relationship between the two countries was animated
by the strategic vision in both the nations. Without mentioning China,
he said that the fact that the two countries discuss East Asia regularly
reflected the confidence levels of the two countries. East Asia in Indias
diplomatic parlance subsumes China. He also alluded to the US-JapanIndia trilateral relations.
What further exacerbated Indo-US relations, besides the diplomatic
row over the alleged ill treatment meted out to Devyani Khobragade,
were the slew of unhelpful measures by the US like the blockage of
Indian generic drugs allegedly on the grounds of non-compliance to
its domestic standards. Also, the US International Trade Commission
(USITC) and the US Trade Representative (USTR) threatened to take
New Delhi to WTO on trade and investment policies like solar energy
and IPR regime. It was against this backdrop that the visit of Nisha D
Biswal, US assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, to
India took place in the first week of March, 2014. In an article in a
leading English daily ahead of her visit to Delhi, Ms. Biswal wrote, It
is becoming widely accepted that our converging interests will shape
Indo -Pacific strategic and economic geography and with it the future
of the 21st century and half of the worlds population that call this
region homeour diplomatic and service-to-service partnership in
the Indian Ocean will keep vital sea lanes free for navigation and
commerce, and co-development: and co-production of defense
91
platforms will enhance the security of both our nations for generations
to come92
Elucidating further, she wrote, In a globalized world, a relationship
like ours cant be focused on development in Delhi and Washington
only, nor can it be limited to our bilateral interests. India is an essential
partner in Americas broader engagement with Asia, where our interests
naturally converge. Reference to Chinas assertiveness was unmistakable,
although China was never mentioned by name, where she said, Over
the course of this century, our government need to work with partners
across the Indo-Pacific region to ensure that all countries can enjoy the
benefits of peace, stability and freedom that come with open societies
and open markets. To that purpose, we should seize the historic
opportunity afforded by Myanmars opening to connect South and
Southeast Asia into an integrated economic landscape. Through our
trilateral dialogue with India and Japan, we are doing just that
In her interaction with Indias Foreign Secretary Ms. Sujatha Singh, the
latter underlined the need for officials on both sides to expeditiously
resolve outstanding issues, to enable both sides to focus their energies
on the substantive and strategic issues that underpin this vital partnership.
Both sides reaffirmed the priority attached to India-US strategic
partnership, and discussed ways in which existing dialogue mechanisms
could be energized to generate fresh momentum.93
92
Nisha D. Biswal, Special, Strategic Relationship, The Times of India, March 4, 2014,
http://lite.epaper.timesofindia.com/getpage.aspx?articles=yes&pageid=
14&max=true&articleid=Ar01400§id=5edid=&edlabel=TOICH&mydateHid=0 403-2014&pubname=Times+of+India+-+Chennai++Editorial&title=Special%2C+Strategic+Relationship&edname=&publabel=TOI,
accessed on February 1, 2015.
93
Elizabeth Roche, US disputes: India for early resolution, The Mint, March, 2014,
http://www.livemint.com/Home-Page/xd1LAv3rOzd3rVQ1eJd0AO/US-disputesIndia-seeks-early-resolution.html, accessed on February 1, 2015.
India and USA signed the second contract worth $1.01 billion for
purchase of six additional C-130J Super Hercules aircraft in
December 2013 under foreign military sales (FMS) programme.
Indian Air Force earlier had acquired the first batch of six C-130Js
tactical airlift aircraft ordered for $962 million in 2007, which are based
at the Hindon airbase at the outskirts of Delhi. The six new C-130Js,
also meant for special operations as the first six are slated to be
based at Panagarh in West Bengal.94 Panagarh will also house the
headquarters of the mountain strike corpse with a total of 80,000
soldiers, being raised by the Army in a project worth around Rs. 90,000
crore. The proposal to form the mountain strike corpse was initiated
by the Indian Army some time in 2010. The Cabinet Committee on
Security, however, asked the services chief to redraw the plan with
components from each service to avoid chances of any repetition in
future. Subsequently, the plan was reviewed by the Chief of Staff
Committee, which had since been cleared by the defence ministry.
The C-130J had already landed at the Daulat Beg Oldie airstrip in the
eastern Ladakh at an altitude of 16,614-feet just 7 kilometers from
Line of Actual Control on the India-China border. Besides, the C130J, India also signed with USA in June 2011, to acquire ten C-17
Globmaster III airlifters, making India the largest C-17 customer outside
the U.S. C-17 is bigger than C-130-J, but C-130J can land at small
forward base on a semi-prepared runway. Capable of carrying Indias
T-72 tanks closer to the China border, C-17 Globmaster III can take
off or land on a small runway. Under normal operation, a C-17
Globmaster III airlifter can carry a T-72 or T-90 into, or out of, a high
altitude air field. It can carry armoured vehicles as well as the tanks.
During the field trials in India, the C-17 Globmaster III demonstrated
ability to fly at high altitudes, take off and land on short and unprepared
runways and carry heavy loads. Both the C-130-J and C-17 Globmaster
94
Rajat Pandit, India, US ink $1 billion deal for 6 more Super Hercules, The Times of
India, December 28, 2013, accessed on February 1, 2015, http://
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-US-ink-1billion-deal-for-six-Super-Herculesaircraft/movie-review/28025763.cms, accessed on February 1, 2015.
8
THE ELECTORAL VICTORY OF BJP AND
ITS IMPACT ON THE TRIANGULAR
RELATIONS
8.1. The Chinese Response
While the sixteenth general elections to the Lok Sabha will be
remembered as water shed for many reasons, it is interesting to analyze
how both China and USA tried to reach out to its Prime Ministerial
candidate Narendra Modi, in the run up to the elections and after the
election results were declared. While Indo-US relations remained on
the plateau without any major initiative to repair the damage caused by
the Devyani episode, Beijing continued its charm offensive and even
extended overtures to the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP) and
NarendraModi. Beijing hosted him in November 2011 and facilitated
a meeting for him with Wang Gang, member of the CPC Central
Committee. Chinese media showed a lot of interest on the long drawn
national elections in India that started on April 7 and ended on May 12.
Positive vibes were exuded towards BJPs prime ministerial candidate,
while acknowledging the contributions of the outgoing regime under
the leadership of the former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and
pointing out the continuity and stability of Sino-Indian relations. Beijing
based correspondent of major English daily extensively quoted a
Chinese scholar Lan Jianxue from the China Institute of International
Studies saying, Unlike some western countries, China doesnt feel
uncomfortable with any Indian parties or candidates. When he first
became chief minister in Gujarat, he had been studied by Chinese
scholars. A large amount of Chinese investment has been putting in
Gujarat. Some believe he is very pragmatic and has some Chinese
way. In 2011, he was invited to visit China. The visit was very successful
and good to build some personal linkage and working relationship.95
95
Sutirtho Patronobis, Shakti or Shanti, Chinese experts analyse Modis plan, The
Hindustan Times, April 6, 2014.
In the same news story, the former Consul General of China in Kolkata,
Mao Siwei had a similar view on Modis business policies. Mao was
quoted saying, There is a saying in India that Gujarat is Indias
Guangdong. This reflects a trend that Indians are recognizing the
importance of manufacturing to the economyIf Mr. Modi becomes
the next Prime Minister of India, I believe the Chinese government
would say that We respect the decision made by the Indian people.
The news report further quoted another Chinese scholar, who is known
for his favourable disposition towards India, as saying, No matter
which party comes to power, the current momentum of Sino-India
relations will be maintained. The aforesaid narrative suggests how
deterioration in Indo-US relations encourages China to extend overtures
of goodwill and strategic gestures towards India.
96
U.S. would welcome Modi as PM despite past visa ban, Reuters, http://in.reuters.com/
article/2014/05/12/modi-pm-usa-visa-idINKBN0DS1M120140512, accessed on
February 1, 2015.
97
Exit poll effect: Obama to work closely with NDA, The Pioneer, May 14, 2014, http://
www.dailypioneer.com/world/exit-poll-effect-obama-to-work-closely-with-nda.html,
accessed on February 1, 2015.
98
Ashley Tellis, Productive but Joyless? NarendraModi and U.S.-India Relations, May
12 ,2014, http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/05/12/productive-but-joyless-narendramodi-and-u.s.-india-relations/han1?reloadFlag=1, accessed on February 1, 2015.
he said that it was possible to solve the problems with China and take
the relationship with it to another level. If India and China want to
work together towards improving our relationship and resolve our
differences, it would be helpful to both the nations. The 21st century
belongs to Asia. More than 60% of the worlds population resides in
Asia. It would be thus in the interests of the world that Asia develops
and concentrates on improving the standard of living of its people.99
The reset in ties between the two countries started with a congratulatory
telephone call from President Obama to Prime Minister elect Modi on
May 16, 2014 that was also accompanied by an invitation to visit
Washington. It was on the same day that that the White House announced
the lifting of the visa ban on Modi.100 Few days later, US secretary of
state John Kerry called up foreign minister Sushma Swaraj on May 29,
2014 and followed it up with a visit to New Delhi on July 31 for the
fifth India-US strategic dialogue. Another high profile visitor from the
US administration was Secretary of Defence Chuk Hagel, who visited
New Delhi in August 2014.
China also tried to reach out to India with equal alacrity. Its foreign
minister Wang Yi visited New Delhi as a special envoy of the Chinese
government on February 11, 2014. After the formation of the new
government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi
in May 2014, Beijing wanted to invite him to visit China. Sensing that a
visit by Prime Minister Modi might not be possible immediately, Beijing
invited Vice-President Hamid Ansari to participate in the celebration
of the sixtieth anniversary of Panchsheel held in Beijing on June 28-29,
99
100
Elizabeth Roche, Advent of new govt. opportunity to renew ties: Obama, Modi, The
Mint, October 1, 2014, http://origin-www.livemint.com/Politics/
ZzaBkISPeY1MBBJ5R2npuL/Advent-of-new-govt-opportunity-to-renew-ties-ObamaModi.html, accessed on February 1, 2015.
2014. Jansangh, the precursor of the nationalist BJP was critical of the
Panchsheel agreement in the Indian Parliament in the 1960s. Prime Minister
Modi, however, sprang a surprise by deciding to visit Bhutan as his
first port of call after assuming power. Priorities of the countries,
which Prime Minister Modi decided to visit, certainly reflected his foreign
policy priorities. Be that as it may, Prime Minister Modi met Chinese
President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the sixth BRICS summit held
at Fortaleza (Brazil) on July 15, 2014. Interestingly while alluding to
India-China relations President Xi Jinping remarked that when India
and China meet, the whole world watches, Prime Minister Modi said,
If India and China amicably resolve the boundary question, it would
be an example for the entire world on peaceful conflict resolution.
The difference of emphasis is quite clear. President Xi tried to exhibit
the strategic solidarity between the two countries; Modi drew attention
to the contentious border dispute. Prime Minister Modi visited Japan,
a close ally of the USA in September 2014, ahead of the visit of
Chinese president Xi Jinping to India, which took place from September
17, 2014.
It was against this backdrop that foreign policy orientation of India
witnessed certain discernible shift towards the USA and its strategic
allies like Japan, a process which earlier started with the Congress led
UPA government under Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh. The subtle
tilt of the Modi government towards the USA manifested when he
visited USA towards the end of September within few months of the
formation of his government. The Joint Statement issued on September
30, 2014 said that President Obama recognized that Indias rise as a
friend and partner is in the United States interest. Noting that the two
way trade between the two countries had increased fivefold since 2001
nearly to $ 100 billion, the two sides pledged to facilitate the actions
necessary to increase bilateral trade to five fold. Significantly, the issue
that rattled Beijing was the reference to South China Sea. The Statement
asserted that the two leaders agreed to intensify cooperation in maritime
security to ensure freedom of navigation and unimpeded movement
of lawful shipping and commercial activity, in accordance with accepted
principles of international law. To achieve this objective, the two sides
considered enhancing technology partnerships for Indias navy including
assessing possible areas of technology cooperation. They also agreed
to upgrade their existing bilateral exercise MALABAR. The Statement
101
Third party should keep off South China Sea: Beijing to India ,US, The Hindustan
Times, October 9, 2014, http://www.htsyndication.com/htsportal/article/Third-partyshould-keep-off-South-China-Sea%3A-Beijing-to-India,-US/5707737, accessed on
February 1, 2015.
the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea on the basis of consensus
and called for cooperation in ensuring security of sea-lanes, maritime
security, combating piracy and conducting search and rescue
operations.102 The three day visit of President Xi Jinping to India which
concluded on September 19, 2014, was an important event in the
narrative of complex relationship between the two countries. The visit,
however, didnt result in any major breakthrough. The Joint Statement
between the two countries largely reiterated earlier stated positions on
different issues. Sixteen agreements were signed between the two
countries during the visit. A tangible out of the visit was the agreement
to establish two industrial parks in India. The border transgression by
the Peoples Liberation Army of China along the Indian side of the
Line of Actual Control (LAC), on April 10, 2015, however, exacerbated
the security dilemma between the two countries. This impelled Prime
Minister Narendra Modi to assert: Respect for each others sensitivities
and concerns, and peace and stability in our relations and along our
border, are essential for us to realize the enormous potential in our
relations.
While persistent security dilemma and increasing Chinese footprints in
Indias neighborhood stymied strategic partnership between India and
China, the same factor and the Chinese assertiveness forged Indo-US
relations to greater heights. Prime Minister Modi created a history of
sort when he invited President Barack Obama in November 2014 to
be the Chief Guest at Indias Republic Day celebrations on January 26,
2015. White House accepted the invitation swiftly. It was against this
backdrop of heightened bonhomie that President Barack Obamas
three day visit to India took place from January 25-27, 2015. It was
for the first time that a President of USA was the Chief Guest at the
ceremonial Republic Day parade. The US-India Joint Strategic Vision
for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region evoked a studied response
from China. The Vision document reiterated the importance of
102
Joint Communiqu between the Socialist Republic of Vietnam and the Republic of
India, Hanoi, Vietnam, September 15, 2014, http://www.presidentofindia.nic.in/pressrelease-detail.htm?1105, accessed on February 1, 2015.
103
US-India Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region, January
25, 2015, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, http://mea.gov.in/bilateraldocuments.htm?dtl/24728/USIndia+Joint+Strategic+Vision+for+the
+AsiaPacific+and+Indian+Ocean+Region, accessed on February 1, 2015.
104
Joint Statement during the visit of President of USA to India-Shared Effort; Progress
for All, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, January 25, 2015, http://
m e a . g o v. i n / b i l a t e r a l - d o c u m e n t s. h t m ? d t l / 2 4 7 2 6 / Jo i n t _ S t a t e m e n t _
during_the_visit_of_President_of_USA_to_India_Shared_Effort_Progress_for_All,
accessed on February 1, 2015.
Group. President Barack Obama affirmed that the United States and
India meets MTCR requirements and is ready for NSG membership
and that it supports Indias early application and eventual membership
in all four regimes. Speaking before a select gathering on January 27,
President Obama reiterated the support of USA for Indias candidature
for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council.105
Beijing keenly watched the visit and reacted very cautiously. Reporting
the development, China Daily quoted Foreign Ministry spokeswomen
Hua Chunying, China hopes that the development of US-India
relations will help promote mutual trust and cooperation among
countries in the region, and safeguard peace, stability and prosperity
of the region as well. The report also quoted the congratulatory
messages of President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang to President
Pranab Mukherjee and Prime Minister Modi on the occasion of the
66th anniversary of Indian Republic pledging that China was willing to
work with India to deepen their mutually beneficial cooperation, build
close partnership in development and elevate the bilateral strategic
cooperation partnership to a higher level.106 Quoting the article of an
Indian professor carried in its own columns the previous day, it said,
Modi must realize that since the Chinese economy has increased from
2.5 times that of India in 2000 to five times today, he has to focus on
economic diplomacy and build partnerships with one and all to replicate
Chinas policies.
While China Daily was conciliatory in its comments, the ultra nationalist
Party controlled Global Times was more critical of the President Obamas
India visit. It criticized western media for pitting India against China. It
described American strategic outreach to India as a craftily set trap,
which will be revealed eventually.
105
Want India as permanent member of UNSC: President Obama, Yahoo News India,
January 27, 2015, https://in.news.yahoo.com/want-india-permanent-member-unscpresident-obama-065302481.html, accessed on February 1, 2015.
106
Chen Weihua, Obamas India trip triggers triangular concern, China Daily, January 27,
2015, http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2015-01/27/content_19415778.htm, accessed
on February 1, 2015.
9
CONCLUSION
Unsure of Chinas strategic intention and the persistent security dilemma
existing between the two countries and given the asymmetry in the
military strength between India and China, New Delhi beefs up security
relations with the USA so as to create deterrence. Thus the 2005 New
Framework Agreement laid strong foundation leading to mutually
beneficial defence cooperation activities through security dialogue, service
level exchanges, defence exercises and defence and technology
collaboration. The new US Strategic Military Guidance announced in
January 2012 by President Obama puts greater emphasis on the Pacific
region and refers to India as a Strategic Partner. The common strategic
and security interests are , however, couched in subterfuge like
maintaining security and stability, defeating violent religious extremism
and terrorism, disaster relief, preventing the spread of weapons of
mass destruction and associated materials, data and techniques,
protecting the free flow of commerce and resources through the vital
sea lanes of Indian Ocean.
In the triangular relations, the US attitude towards India has been to
mentor it to play a pivotal role in the Asian balance of power to create
equilibrium to deter Chinese assertiveness. Sino-Indian relations on the
contrary have been resilient, but the undercurrent of strategic distrust
and security dilemma persists. Border incursions take place and security
dilemma persists. Although government avoids articulating them in so
many words, certain military defence and strategic measures do indicate
them. Moreover Chinas charm offensives and overtures do not match
with its infrastructural developments in the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir
(PoK), which exacerbates Indias security concerns. China is yet to extend
support to Indias candidature for the UNSC, while India had done so
even at the height of border war in 1962. This is because the nature of
relationship between the two countries continues to be adversarial in
spite of the claims of both the countries that there is enough space for
both to cooperate and compete. But there is a qualitative difference in
the nature of relationship that India shares with USA and China. One
fundamental difference in the nature of relationship that India shares
with US and China is that India-China relations even if they are resilient
continues to be competitive, if not adversarial, which is not the case
with the USA. So far as Chinas claim of Asian identity of India and
China; and the US claims of shared values of democracy are concerned,
it may be asserted that to a large extent they are both symbolic and
rhetoric. It is the national interest that drives the foreign policy postulates
of the three countries. Indo-US difference can be attributed to the
vibrant nature of the democratic polity of the two countries with
robust judicial system and also a fiercely independent media. The
differences in Indo-US relations at different levels are articulated freely;
whereas Sino-Indian relations, at times, are concealed or muted.
Can India trust USA? The answer is complex. Before an answer can
be drawn, USAs past attitude and behaviour will help us to formulate
answer. As discussed in the preceding sections, US in the past had
supported Pakistan on Kashmir issue much to the chagrin of India. It
had supplied arms and ammunitions to Pakistan targeted against India.
It sided with Pakistan in 1971 war and sent the USS Enterprise to deter
India. USA had imposed sanction against India for Indias nuclear
explosion in 1998. It didnt pay heed to India, when it suffered to
terrorism until the twin tower attack. Although in the past, in 1962
war, USA extended all material and political support to India, to the
extent as the economies of the USA and China are intertwined like the
con-joined Siamese twins, it is only a hazardous guess if US would
support India in the event of a conflict situation like 1962.
How is Indias experience with China? At the level of rhetoric, the two
countries claim cultural intercourse for about 2000 years; both suffered
colonialism and imperialism, and fought against them. Both championed
the cause of the Afro-Asian countries. Both argue that current world
governance structure should reflect the tectonic shift from Atlantic to
the Asia-Pacific. The similarities end here. The divergences are quite
enormous. The two have different and yet competitive political
systems-India, a boisterous democracy; and China, a totalitarian system.
Both are two of worlds largest economies competing for strategic
resources, and markets; and for global clout and influence. Will they
have to inevitably come to a conflict of war like situation to resolve
their claim and counter claim? Not necessarily; because, the nature of
geo-politics has changed. Not only that the theatre of geo-politics has
107
Yuriko Kolke, Tipping points to Asias future, The Mint, May 27, 2014, http://
www.livemint.com/Opinion/NZoT1x9xpF8whiXVOEOdEJ/Yuriko-Koike
Tipping-points-to-Asias-future.html, accessed on February 1, 2015.
Recommendations
l
India should further strengthen its infrastructure in the IndiaChina border. The border roads should be strengthened.
Defence is the best way to deter offence.
ANNEXURE I
ANNEXURE II
BIBLIOGRAPHY
I. Primary Source :
1)
1983. Foreign Relations of the United States, Vol. 7 (Korea and China),
part 1. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office,1951
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Lester Pearson, Memoirs Volume 2: The International Years, 19481957 (London: Gollancz 1974)
7)
8)
9)
10)
Sarvapalli Gopal, Jawaharlal Nehru: A Biography, Vol. 3, 19561964, New Delhi, Oxford University Press, 1984
11)
12)
13)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)
12)
Kux, Dennis, India and the United states: Estranged Democracies, 19471991, Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1992
13)
Nehru, B.K. Nice Guys Finish Second, Penguin India, New Delhi,
1997.
14)
Prasad, S.N. (ed.), History of the Conflict with China, 1962, History
Division, Ministry of Defence, Govt. of India, 1992
15)
16)
17)
18)
19)
Suyin, Han, Eldest Son: Zhou Enlai and the Making of Modern China,
1898-1976, Jonathan Cape, London, 1994.
20)
21)
22)
23)
Xia, Yafen, Negotiation with the enemy, US-China Talks During the
Cold War, 1949-1972, Bloomington: Indiana University Press,
2006
B. Articles
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Garver, John W., Chinas Decision for War with India in 1962,
in Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross (eds), New Directions
to the Study of Chinas Foreign Policy, Stanford University Press,
2006
7)
8)
9)
10)
Rup Narayan Das was a Senior Fellow with the Institute for
Defence Studies and Analyses for little over four years from
June, 2010 to 31 August, 2014 on deputation from the Lok
Sabha Secretariat, where currently he is a Director in the
Research and Information Division of the legislature's
secretariat. He holds Ph.D in Chinese studies from the
School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. His
research papers, book reviews and articles have appeared, among
others, in Harvard Asia Quarterly, China Report, International Studies,
Strategic Analyses, Journal of Defence Studies, China Brief, Asia Times,
Diplomat, besides most English dailies of India. His monograph on SinoIndian Relations: A New Paradigm was earlier published by IDSA.