Holy Cow and the Gospel – LSP President Jaya Prakash Narayan(JP) and his Misleading Gospel

Note: Numbers used in this note are,

• Latest numbers from the website of “The Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of AP”
• Statistical Abstract, A.P. 2008
• Data obtained from Govt of AP using Right to Information
• JP’s answers are from a live chat session on IBN Live - http://features.ibnlive.in.com/chat/view/346.html

Sometimes I wonder how well this man called JP can mislead people masquerading his usual rhetoric of Good Governance with some strange logic that he
attributes to numbers. Numbers are like water. By themselves, neither they convey anything nor provide any conclusion. Like water takes the shape of the
vessel that it is in, the message that numbers convey depends on the people using them. I will try to present what skewed logic JP attributes to numbers to
suit his agenda.

There are a lot of unanswered questions about his party and his style of functioning. But since LSP is the holy cow, we shouldn’t question.

• How and why some LSP candidates paid money to get articles published during election time?
http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?263242
http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?263241
• How was Mr L Rathaiah given a ticket overnight?
• Why did Mr JP dissolve elected committees in the party? He talks of internal democracy in other parties and calls on MLAs of other parties to heed
to their conscience if there is a voting on Telangana resolution. But why did he dissolve elected committees? How many of his colleagues left the
party after this step?
• Why were his party members from Telangana not allowed to discuss the issue of Telangana? Why did some of his long time colleagues start a new
party in Telangana?

Let us now look at his misleading gospel and how cleverly he uses numbers to suit his agenda. He does not consider other facts or numbers that do not fit
into his scheme of things.

A Document by Rakesh Reddy Dubbudu

The Question of his party’s Stand on a separate Telangana.

When people asked him about LSP’s stand, he goes onto say,

“This is not a great moral question. We can decide either way provided all stake-holders are satisfied, national repercussions are addressed, and the real
solution of district governments is implemented. Strong views are not necessary, as it is neither a catastrophe, nor a panacea.”

But in response to another question, “what is your view on telangana?”, he goes onto say,

“We need to do what is best for Telangana people. The only real answers are: 1. Repeal of Section 14(f) of the PresidentialOrder. 2. Creation of an
independent authority to implement GO 610 in all regions of AP. 3. Regional Committees in all regions with powers and resources 4. Effective and
empowered district governments. Lok Satta is fully committed to these goals. “

After looking at the above reply, any sane person with a little bit of understanding on the issue will know that his solution to the problem lies in a United
Andhra Pradesh. But he still refuses to commit to that stand. This gives rise to a lot of questions about him.

He says it’s not a great moral question. It may not be a great moral question according to him, but it’s still a question. Any serious political party should
have a stand on every issue that concerns people. Did people tell him that Dynastic politics are bad? In fact, most of the sons and daughters of current
politicians won the election. When he and his party takes a stand on any damn issue, why not Telangana? Why is he being a cat on the wall? 3 crore people
are asking this question.

He first came onto the scene saying, “
я
 

”. People are the ul9mate masters in a Democracy. But in case of Telangana, somehow the equa9on is
different. What people want is not the solu9on, but what he says in his gospel is the solu9on. Suddenly the new mantra is “ 
 ”.

Backwardness of Telangana districts, Growth rates and his lies

I will start by stating what he says about growth, backwardness etc.

“ I have presented many parameters and the growth in Telangana & rest of AP over 50 years. The facts speak for themselves. If you see the annual growth
rates of gross district domestic product of various districts from 1994-95 to 2006-07, the facts are revealing. 1994-95 to 2006-07 - Annual average growth
rate. AP: 6.68% Nalgonda: 7.38% Khammam: 6.99% Warangal: 7.57% Karimnagar: 7.53% Adilabad: 6.46% Nizamabad: 6.30% Medak: 7.34% Hyderabad:
10.41% Rangareddy: 9.32% Mahabubnagar: 8.34% Rayalaseema: Kurnool: 5.33% Ananthapur: 5.82% Cuddapah: 4.90% Chittoor: 4.73% coastal AP Nellore:

A Document by Rakesh Reddy Dubbudu

5.09% Prakasam: 6.80% Guntur: 4.81% Krishna: 7.01% West Godavari: 5.79% East Godavari: 6.46% Visakhapatnam: 9.65% Vizianagaram: 5.81% Srikakulam:
6.58% you can see these trends - these are long term trends aggregate economic growth over 13 years for each district. The facts speak for themselves.”

“ I have given plenty of statistical evidence to show that Telengana districts are growing fast economically”

He also goes onto say in a TV interview that “backwardness is not specific to Telangana”

I teach Maths to students. The first thing I tell them in a percentages class is to never compare two things merely based on their percentages. Because
percentages always have a base and without looking at the base on which they are calculated, there is every chance they present a very skewed picture and
can even mislead. Any class 6 student will know this fundamental logic about Percentages. Looks like JP needs a refresher course in Percentages and I will
be glad to do it.

Let me take a parallel and explain this further. Let me take 3 countries and talk about their average growth rates.

Country 1: Annual average GDP growth rate from 1990 to 2008 is 2%. In the last 6 years, this rate is somewhere close to 2.5%

Country 2: Annual average GDP growth rate from 1990 to 2008 is 4.7 %. In the last 6 years, this rate is somewhere close to 8%

Country 3: Annual average GDP growth rate from 1990 to 2008 is 2.4 %. In the last 6 years, this rate is somewhere close to 10%

(All these statistics are taken from UN’s Official website)

Going by the logic of Mr JP, the most developed country should be either country2 or country 3 and country 1 should be the most backward. Let me reveal
what those countries are,

Country 1: United States of America (USA)

Country 2: India
Country 3: Ethiopia

As I stated earlier, percentages never reveal the true picture. They should be looked at along with the actual numbers. Since USA already has a higher base,
its growth rate would obviously be low compared to India and Ethiopia. Though Ethiopia is growing at a rate that is 4 times to that of USA, it cannot be
termed as prosperous and USA as backward.

A Document by Rakesh Reddy Dubbudu

The same logic extends to JPs Figures.

Telangana has 10 districts including Hyderabad, Rangareddy and Medak which form a major part of GHMC. Coastal Andhra has 9 districts and Rayalaseema
has 4 districts.

GDP & Growth Rates

• As on March 31st 2006, the combined GDP of all Telangana districts including Hyderabad, Medak & Rangareddy (most parts of these 3 districts form
the GHMC area) is Rs 99462.81 Crores. Excluding the 3 districts, it stands at Rs 57121.27 Crores. The average for these 7 districts comes to nearly Rs
8100 crores per district. (I have counted GHMC separately as it is believed by various sections of people that about 30 Lakh people from other
regions live in GHMC area)
• As on March 31st 2006, the combined GDP of all Coastal Andhra districts is Rs 103846.14 Crores. The average for the 9 districts comes to nearly Rs
11540 crores per district.
• So the average GDP of Coastal Andhra district is 43% more than the average of 7 Telangana districts. I have counted the 3 districts of GHMC
separately as the GHMC area comprises the capital city. For the record, the average GDP of these districts is Rs 14000 Crores.
• The GDP of the 7 Telangana districts is below Rs 10000 crores, while 5 of the 9 Coastal AP districts have a GDP of more than Rs 10000 crores.

Example
As per JP average growth rate of Warangal is 7.57% and that of Guntur is 4.81%. The actual numbers of GDP as on March 31st 2006,

Warangal: Rs 7672. 23 Crores

Guntur: Rs 12773.92 Crores

Even if Warangal continues grows at the rate of 7.57% and Guntur continues to grow at 4.81%, it will take a minimum of 18 years
for their GDPs to be equal. Now tell me which of the districts are backward and which are not.

A Document by Rakesh Reddy Dubbudu

 GDDP in Rupees Lakhs (2005-06) Adilabad
Nizamabad
25,00,000 Karimnagar
Warangal
Khammam
20,00,000 Nalgonda
Mahboobnagar
Medak
15,00,000 Rangareddy
Hyderabad
Srikakulam
10,00,000 Vizianagaram
Vishakapatnam
East Godavari
5,00,000 West Godavari
Krishna
Guntur
Prakasam
0
Nellore
Anantapur
Kurnool
Kadapa
Chittoor

A Document by Rakesh Reddy Dubbudu

Per Capita Income

• The Per Capita income of AP in 2005-06 was Rs 26211.

• 5 out of 10 Telangana districts fell below this average. Out of the other 5 which are above this average, 3 of them form the GHMC area.
• 5 out of 9 Coastal AP districts are above this average. 2 of other 4 Coastal AP districts are very close to this average.
Now JP has to attribute a logic to these numbers and explain to us what all of this means.

Per Capita Income(2005-06) Andhra Pradesh

Adilabad
50000
Nizamabad
45000 Karimnagar
Warangal
40000 Khammam
Nalgonda
35000
Mahboobnagar
30000 Medak
Rangareddy
25000 Hyderabad
20000 Srikakulam
Vizianagaram
15000 Vishakapatnam
East Godavari
10000 West Godavari
5000 Krishna
Guntur
0 Prakasam
Nellore
Anantapur
Kurnool
Kadapa
Chittoor

A Document by Rakesh Reddy Dubbudu

Backwardness

He goes onto say, backwardness is not specific to Telangana and a lot of districts in coastal Andhra are backward than districts in Telangana. I would like to
bring to his notice about the Backward Regions Grant Fund (BRGF) scheme of Govt of India which says,

“9 of the 13 most backward districts in AP are in Telangana. 9 out of 10 Telangana districts (barring Hyd) are most backward as recognized by Govt of India.
• http://panchayat.gov.in/brgf/Report.do?method=BRGFdistrict
• http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2006/aug06/r20060801101.pdf
• http://panchayat.gov.in/data/1200551169460~BRGFFINALGUIDELINES.pdf

The 13 districts are,

1. ADILABAD 2. ANANTAPUR 3.CHITTOOR 4.CUDDAPAH 5.KARIMNAGAR 6. KHAMMAM 7.MAHBUBNAGAR 8.MEDAK
9.NALGONDA 10 .NIZAMABAD 11.RANGAREDDI 12.VIZIANAGARAM 13.WARANGAL

This is what the introduction of BRGF says, “The Backward Regions Grant Fund is designed to redress regional imbalances in development. The fund will
provide financial resources for supplementing and converging existing developmental inflows into 250 identified districts, so as to: Bridge critical gaps in
local infrastructure and other development requirements that are not being adequately met through existing inflows.”
Now JP has to tell us why Govt of India has a different story to tell.

• From 2004 to 2006, the number of Farmer suicides in Telangana is close to 2500 and that in Coastal Andhra is 500. Does this say anything about
backwardness?
• The Domestic power consumption in 2007-08 for the 8 districts of Telangana (Barring Hyd & Rangareddy) is 1937.27 MKWH. Compared to this, the
Domestic power consumption in 2007-08 for the 9 districts of Coastal Andhra is 4317.97 MKWH. Does this say anything about backwardness?
• As on March 2008, there is a Bank branch for every 14000 people in Andhra Pradesh. But in Telangana this average is higher than 14000 for 9 of
the 10 districts (except Hyd ), where as in Coastal Andhra, this average is lower than 14000 for 7 of the 9 districts. Does this also tell us anything
about Backwardness and Development?

A Document by Rakesh Reddy Dubbudu

 Domestic Power Consumption in MKWH (2007-08)
Adilabad
Nizamabad
2000
Karimnagar
1800 Warangal
Khammam
1600
Nalgonda
1400 Mahboobnagar
Medak
1200 Rangareddy
Hyderabad
1000
Srikakulam
800 Vizianagaram
Vishakapatnam
600
East Godavari
400 West Godavari
Krishna
200
Guntur
0 Prakasam
Nellore
Anantapur
Kurnool
Kadapa
Chittoor

A Document by Rakesh Reddy Dubbudu

 Average population per Bank Branch (in 000's)
25
Andhra Pradesh
Adilabad
Nizamabad
20 Karimnagar
Warangal
Khammam
Nalgonda
15
Mahboobnagar
Medak
Rangareddy
10 Hyderabad
Srikakulam
Vizianagaram
Vishakapatnam
5 East Godavari
West Godavari
Krishna
Guntur
0
Prakasam
Nellore
Anantapur
Kurnool
Kadapa
Chittoor

The demand for Telangana is not merely based on Economics or Development. It’s a fight for preserving a culture and an identity. This short piece is
intended to clear the misconception in a lot of people who are mislead by JP’s numbers and his skewed logic.

Jai Telangana Jai Hind

A Document by Rakesh Reddy Dubbudu