Elements of A Test of Hypothesis

Lecture Notes
Chapter Eight: Inferences Based on a Single Sample: Test of Hypothesis

Randall Miller
1. The Elements of a Test of Hypothesis

Conclusions and Consequences for a Test of Hypothesis
True State of Nature
Conclusion
H 0 True
H a True
Correct decision
Type II error (probability )
Accept H 0 (Assume H 0 True)
Correct decision
Type I error (probability )
Reject H 0 (Assume H a True)
Elements of a Test of Hypothesis

1. Null hypothesis ( H 0 ): A theory about the values of one or more population parameters. The
theory generally represents the status quo, which we adopt until it is proven false. By
convention, the theory is stated as H 0 : parameter = value.
2. Alternative hypothesis ( H a ): A theory that contradicts the null hypothesis. The theory
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
generally represents that which we will accept only when sufficient evidence exists to
establish its truth.
Test statistic: A sample statistic used to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis.
Rejection region: The numerical values of the test statistic for which the null hypothesis will
be rejected. The rejection region is chosen so that the probability is that it will contain the
test statistic when the null hypothesis is true, thereby leading to a Type I error. The value of
is usually chosen to be small (e.g., .01, .05, or .10) and is referred to as the level of
significance of the test.
Assumptions: Clear statements of any assumptions made about the population(s) being
sampled.
Experiment and calculation of test statistic: Performance of the sampling experiment and
determination of the numerical value of the test statistic.
Conclusion:
a. If the numerical value of the test statistic falls into the rejection region, we reject the
null hypothesis and conclude that the alternative hypothesis is true. We know that
the hypothesis-testing process will lead to this conclusion incorrectly (a Type I error)
only 100 % of the time when H 0 is true.
b. If the test statistic does not fall into the rejection region, we don not reject H 0 . Thus,
we reserve judgment about which hypothesis is true. We do not conclude that the
null hypothesis is true because we do not (in general) know that the probability
that our test procedure will lead to an incorrect acceptance of H 0 (a Type II error).
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Lecture Notes
Randall Miller
Determining the Target Parameter

Parameter
Key Words or Phases

Mean; average
Proportion; percentage; fraction; rate
Variance; variability; spread
Type of Data
Quantitative
Qualitative
Quantitative
2. Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis about a Population Mean

Steps for Selecting the Null and Alternative Hypotheses
1. Select the alternative hypothesis as that which the sampling experiment is intended to
establish. The alternative hypothesis will assume one of three forms:
a. One tailed, upper tailed
Example: H a : > 2, 400
b. One tailed, lower tailed
Example: H a : < 2, 400
c. Two tailed
Example: H a : 2, 400
2. Select the null hypothesis as the status quo that which will be presumed true unless the
sampling experiment conclusively establishes the alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis
will be specified as the parameter value closest to the alternative in one-tailed tests and as the
complementary (or only unspecified) value in two-tailed test.
Rejection Regions for Common Values of

= .10
= .05
= .01
Lower Tailed
z < -1.28
z < -1.645
z < -2.33
Alternative Hypotheses
Upper tailed
Two Tailed
z > 1.28
z < -1.645 or z > 1.645
z > 1.645
z < -1.96 or z > 1.96
z > 2.33
z < -2.575 or z > 2.575
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Lecture Notes
Randall Miller
Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis about

Two-Tailed Test
H 0 : = 0
One-Tailed Test
H 0 : = 0
H a : < 0 ( or H a : > 0 )
Test statistic: z =
H a : 0
x 0
Test statistic: z =
Rejection region: z < z / 2 or z > z / 2
Rejection region: z < z
( or z > z
x 0
when H a : > 0 )
Where z / 2 is chosen so that
Where z is chosen so that
P ( z > z / 2 ) =
/2
P ( z < z ) =
Note: 0 is the symbol for the numerical value assigned to under the null hypothesis
Conditions Required for a Valid Large-Sample Hypothesis Test for

1. A random sample is selected from the target population.
2. The sample size n is large (i.e., n 30 ). (Due to the central limit theorem, this condition
guarantees that the test statistic will by approximately normal regardless or the shape of the
underlying probability distribution of the population).
Possible Conclusions for a Test of Hypothesis

1. If the calculated test statistic falls into the rejection region, reject H 0 and conclude that the
alternative hypothesis H a is true.
State that you are rejecting H 0 at the level of
significance. Remember that the confidence is in the testing process, not the particular
results of a single test.
2. If the test statistic does not fall into the rejection region, conclude that the sampling
experiment does not provide sufficient evidence to reject H 0 at the level of significance.
[Generally, we will not accept the null hypothesis unless the probability of a Type II
error has been calculated. (See optional Section 8.6.)]
3. Observed Significance Levels: p-values

Definition 8.1
The observed significance level, or p-value, for a specific statistical test is the probability
(assuming that H 0 is true) of observing a value of the test that is at least as contradictory to the
null hypothesis, and supportive of the alternative hypothesis, as the actual one computed from the
sample data.
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Lecture Notes
Randall Miller
Steps for Calculating the p-value for a Test of Hypothesis

1. Determine the value of the test statistic z corresponding to the result of the sampling
experiment.
a. If the test is one-tailed, the p-value is equal to the tail area beyond z in the same
direction as the alternative hypothesis. Thus, if the alternative hypothesis is of the
form >, the p-value is the area to the right of, or above, the observed z-value.
Conversely, if the alternative is of the form <, the p-value is the area to the left or, or
below, the observed z-value. (See Figure 8.8.)
b. If the test is two tailed, the p-value is equal to twice the tail area beyond the observed
z-value in the direction of the sign of z. That is, if z is positive, the p-value is twice
the area to the right, or above, the observed z-value. Conversely, if z is negative, the
p-value is twice the area to the left of , or below, the observed z-value. (See Figure
8.9.)
Reporting Test Results as p-Values: How to Decide Whether to Reject H 0

1. Choose the maximum value of that you are willing to tolerate.
2. If the observed significance level (p-value) of the test is less that the chosen value of ,
reject the null hypothesis. Otherwise, do not reject the null hypothesis.
Converting a Two-Tailed p-Value from a Printout to a One-Tailed p-Value

p=
Reported p value H a : is of form > and z is positive

if
2
H a : is of form < and z is negative
Reported p value
p= 1
H : is of form > and z is negative

if a
H a : is of form < and z is positive
4. Small-Sample Test of Hypothesis about a Population Mean

Small-Sample Test of Hypothesis About
One-Tailed Test
H 0 : = 0
Two-Tailed Test
H 0 : = 0
H a : < 0 ( or H a : > 0 )
Test statistic: t =
x 0
s/ n
Rejection region: t < t
H a : 0
Test statistic: t =
x 0
s/ n
Rejection region: t < t / 2 or t > t / 2
( or t > t when H a : > 0 )

Where t and t / 2 are based on (n 1) degrees of freedom
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Lecture Notes
Randall Miller
What Can Be Done if the Population Relative Frequency Distribution Departs

Greatly from Normal?
Answer: Use one of the nonparametric statistical methods of Chapter 14.
5. Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis about a Population Proportion

Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis about p
Two-Tailed Test
H 0 : p = p0
One-Tailed Test
H 0 : p = p0
H a : p < p0 ( or H a : p > p0 )
Test statistic: z =
p p0
Rejection region: z < z
( or z > z
H a : p p0
Test statistic: z =
p p0
Rejection region: z < z / 2 or z > z / 2
when H a : p > p0 )
Where p0 = hypothesized value of p, p =
p0 q0
, and q0 = 1 p0
n
Conditions Required for a Valid Large-Sample Hypothesis Test for p

1. A random sample is selected from a binomial population
2. The sample size n is large. (This condition will be satisfied if np0 and nq0 are both at least
15.)
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Lecture Notes

Chapter Eight: Inferences Based on a Single Sample: Test of Hypothesis

1. The Elements of a Test of Hypothesis

Elements of a Test of Hypothesis

Determining the Target Parameter

Key Words or Phases

2. Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis about a Population Mean

Example: H a : < 2, 400

Rejection Regions for Common Values of

Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis about

Rejection region: z < z / 2 or z > z / 2

Rejection region: z < z

Where z / 2 is chosen so that

Where z is chosen so that

Conditions Required for a Valid Large-Sample Hypothesis Test for

Possible Conclusions for a Test of Hypothesis

State that you are rejecting H 0 at the level of

3. Observed Significance Levels: p-values

Steps for Calculating the p-value for a Test of Hypothesis

Reporting Test Results as p-Values: How to Decide Whether to Reject H 0

Converting a Two-Tailed p-Value from a Printout to a One-Tailed p-Value

Reported p value H a : is of form > and z is positive

H : is of form > and z is negative

4. Small-Sample Test of Hypothesis about a Population Mean

( or t > t when H a : > 0 )

What Can Be Done if the Population Relative Frequency Distribution Departs

5. Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis about a Population Proportion

Rejection region: z < z

Rejection region: z < z / 2 or z > z / 2

Where p0 = hypothesized value of p, p =

Conditions Required for a Valid Large-Sample Hypothesis Test for p

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