03-30-2015 PS 3

Anima Anwar
Professor Cati
EC203
29 March 2015
From chapter 4, pages: 187, 191, 197, 204, 205 and 212, exercises: 8, 11, 18, 19,
26, 29, 32, 35, 42 and 45. From Chapter5 , pages: 230, 235, 247, 251, 254, 259,
exercises: 10, 11, 19, 23, 32, 34, 35, 40, 43, 45, 49, 51, 56, 61, 65. From Chapter6,
pages: 269, 278, 284, 288, 290, 291, exercises: 3, 57, 7, 17, 20, 24, 29, 35, 38, 41,
45, 48.
CHAPTER 4: Pg. 187, 191, 197, 204, 205, 212; #8, 11, 18, 19, 26, 29, 32,
35, 42, 45
8.
a. Four sample points; positive or negative, approve or disapprove
b.
9.
C(50,4)
50!/(50-4)!4! = 230300
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230300
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11.
a. 350/520 = 0.673 or 67.3%
b. They would be pleased because the probability this year (67.3) is higher
than 0.48 and 0.63, the past results.
c. Northeast (96/(96+62)): 60.8%
Midwest (86/(86+43)): 66.67%
South (92/(92+49)): 65.25%
West (76/ (76+16)): 82.61%
The West has the highest probability of DOT- compliance
18.
a. California: (53/500) = 10.6%

b. CA, NY, TX: (53+50+52)/500 = 31.0%
c. (53+32+21+50+28+23+52+24) = 56.6%
19.
a. (334/(187+334+256+197+411+213)) = 20.90%
b. (411+213)/(1598) = 39.04%
c. (334+411)/1598 = 46.62%
26.
a. (16/25) = 64%
b. (7+2)/25 = 36%
c. P (DOMESTIC FUNDS WITH 4 STAR OR 5 STAR RATING) = P (4- STAR
RATING) + p(5 STAR RATING) = 7/25 + 2/25 = 0.28 + 0.08 =
d. P = domestic fund or fund with 4 or 5 star = p (domestic funds) + p (4 or
5 star ) = 0.64 + 0.48 0.36 = 0.76
29.
a. (0.362, 0.3, 0.338)

b. Yes;
32.
a. SEE TABLE
b. SEE TABLE; The marginal probabilities (0.48, 0.52, 0.42, 0.58); They tell
you the probability of each event separately. Therefore, the marginal probabilities
0.48 and 0.52 tell you what the probability of the type of vehicle is from the total
and the marginal probabilities 0.42 and 0.58 tell you the manufacturer.
c. P(CAR | US) and P(TRUCK | US): Car 0.31 and Truck 0.69
d. P(CAR | nonUS) and P(TRUCK | nonUS) Car 0.60; Truck 0.40
e. P(US | TRUCK): 0.56
f. The United States relatively manufactures more trucks than cars and
foreign countries manufacture more cars than trucks.
Light
Truck
Total
87.4
193.1
280.5
228.5
148
376.5
315.9
341.1
657
Car
US
Non US
Total
Car
US
Non US
Total
Light
Truck
Total
0.13
0.29
0.42
0.35
0.23
0.58
0.48
0.52
1
35.
a. SEE TABLE
b. SEE TABLE; Parents are more likely to help with paying for a car. This is true
from the marginal probabilities. The marginal probability for all the yes for rent is .
35 and for cars its .54. (0.54) > (0.35) and therefore it is more likely that the
parents aid with cars.
c. P(finRENT | finCAR): 0.52
d. P(finRENT | noCAR): (.07/.46) = 0.15
e. No because P(A | B) does not equal P(A)
f.
Yes rent
Yes
car
No car
Total
Yes - car
No - car
Total
42.
No -rent
56
14
70
52
78
130
Total
108
92
200
Yes rent
No -rent Total
0.28
0.26
0.54
0.07
0.39
0.46
0.35
0.65
1
a. P(D) = 0.05; P(NoDef)=0.95;

P(M|D)=1
and P(M|noDef) = 0.20
b. (0.05)/(0.05)+ 0.95 (0.20) = 0.5/0.24

= 0.2803
Yes; missing a payment means that the bank should recall its card. The probability
that sad customer misses a payment is greated than 20% (0.20).
45.
a. 983,664/1613234 = 0.61; 0.39 probability of missing a putt

b. P(A|B)=(0.61)(0.64)/(0.61)(0.64)+(0.392)(0.20)
0.83
c. P(A|B) = (0.61)(0.188)/(0.6097)(0.188)+(0.392)(0.734)
=0.9698
d. Birdie misses more putts than made, while putts for par are done. Doing
well in golf means getting on green in 2 strokes and taking two for par. The lower
probability birdie putts comes from a larger distance.
CHAPTER 5 PG. 230, 235, 247, 251, 254, 259; #10, 11, 19, 23, 32, 34, 35,
40, 43, 45, 49, 51, 56, 61, 65
10.
a. SEE TABLE
b. SEE TABLE
c. P(x=4 or 5) = 0.42+0.41 = 0.83
d. P(y=5) = 0.28
e. Overall senior executives seem to be more satisfied on average than
middle managers but senior executives seem to be more varied in their scores.
11.
a. SEE TABLE
b. STATA GRAPH
c. All f(x) values are positive and add up to 1; Probability distribution of x is
valid
d. Probability that the call will take three hours = P (x=3) = 0.25
e. Probability that the service technician will have to work overtime =
probability that the service call will take more than 2 hours
=P(x>2)
=P(x=3) + P(x=4) = 0.5
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.25
.2
19.
a. valid,
probabilities sum to 1
mean of frequency
.1
.15
b. .1
c. .1
d. 43
192.65
.05
23.
a. 0.3600
b. 0 * (0.3600) = 0.0000
1
c. (0-1.306)^2 * (0.3600)
= (0.6140)
d. The probability would be 1 is drinking adults at least a cup of coffee. The

expected value would be 1. The variance would be 0.
32.
a. Probability for single detection is p=0.90

b. 1-p(x=0), 1-0.01 = 0.99
c. 1-P (none of the 3 system will detect)
= 1-0.0001
= 0.999
d. Multiple detection system would increase effectiveness but the cost

involved should be feasible.
34.
a. This is a binomial experiment because there are two outcomes and the
sequences are identical. Each trial is independent of another.
b. 75% of the people aged 18-24 years were contributing to the household
costs. If the sample shows that only 18-24 year olds contributed to the household
expenses, it would not be relevant.
c. cumulative probability is 0.85
35.
a. 0.2060
b. 0.218
c. 0.589
d. 4
40.
a. 0.195
b. 0.105
c. 0.0183
d. 0.0907
43.
a. 0.00000454
b. 0.0103
c. 0.0821
d. 0.918
45.
a. 0.0498
b. 0.800
c. 1.5
d. 0.223
49.
a. 0.143
b. 0.00452
c. 0.090
d. 0.0483
51.
a. 0.2637
b. 0.4945
c. 0.22
d. 0.022
56.
a.0.0596
b. 0.3585
c. 100
d. variance = 95; std dev = 9.75
61.
0.1251
65.
a. 0.03993
b. 0.2995
c. 0.659
CHAPTER 6 PG: 269, 278, 284, 288, 290, 291; # 3, 5, 7, 17, 20, 24, 29, 35,
38, 41, 45, 48, 57
3.
a. 2 hours = 120 minutes; 2 hours 20 minutes = 140 minutes

X = flight time in minutes
b. 5 minutes late = 2 hours 10 minutes = 130 minutes

P(x>130) = (140-130)/(140-120) = 10/20 = 0.5
c. 10 minutes late = 2 hours 15 mins = 135 minutes
P(x>135) = (140-135)/(140-120) = 0.25
d. ux = (120+140)/2 = 130 minutes
5.
a. f(x)={8.5<= x <= 12
0 elsewhere
b. 6/14 = .429
c. 10/14 = .714
d. 8/14 = .571
e. 2/14 = .143
.143(100) = 14.3
7.
a. (1200010000)/(15000-10000) = .4
b. (14000-10000)/(15000-10000) = .8
c. (15000-10000)/(15000-10000) = 1
d. Bidding more than 15K would be an option depending on utility, decision
regarding the
amount of the bid depends on the utility of the property.
17.
a. (550 385)/110 = 1.5

1 - .9332 = .0668
b. (250 385)/110 = -1.23
.1093
c. .8413
d. 385 + 110(1.88) = 592
20.
a. (3.5 3.73)/.25 = -.92

17.88%
b. (3.5 3.4)/.2 = .5
69.15%
c. (3.73 3.4)/.2 = 1.65
1 - .9505 = .0495
4.95%
24.
a. (400-749)/225 = -1.55
.0606
b. (800-749)/225 =.23
1-.5910=.4090
c. (1000-749)/225=1.12
.8686-1.335=.7351
d. 749+225(1.64)=1118
29.
a. 1- .1854 = .8416
b. 1 - .375 = .9625
c. Using normal approximation is useful for large samples, otherwise have to
use extremely large factorials versus simple three variable equation.
d. Binomial distribution is more accurate and a computer can operate with a
very high speed. May take longer to program but end user has more accuracy
without the time loss.
35.
a.
b. 1-.367879=.632121
c. 1-.606531=.393469
d. .082085
38.
a.60/1.6 = 37.5
b. (1/37.5)e^(-x/37.5)
c. .7981
d..4493
e. .4134-.1248=.2886
41.
a. .1587 + (1-.8413) = .3174

317
b. .0013 + (1-.9986) = .0027
2.7
c. Reducing process variation results in process control limits at a greater
number of standard deviations from the mean. This results in less expected
number of defects.
45.
a. 330(368)/12=10120
b. 1-.8051=.1949
c. (7500-10120)/2200=-1.19
.1170
d. (12000-11550)/2500
z= 0.18
1.00-0.5714=0.4286
48.
(2.05)(.6) + 18 = 19.23

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Anima Anwar

a. 350/520 = 0.673 or 67.3%

a. California: (53/500) = 10.6%

a. (0.362, 0.3, 0.338)

a. P(D) = 0.05; P(NoDef)=0.95;

b. (0.05)/(0.05)+ 0.95 (0.20) = 0.5/0.24

a. 983,664/1613234 = 0.61; 0.39 probability of missing a putt

d. The probability would be 1 is drinking adults at least a cup of coffee. The

a. Probability for single detection is p=0.90

d. Multiple detection system would increase effectiveness but the cost

a. 2 hours = 120 minutes; 2 hours 20 minutes = 140 minutes

b. 5 minutes late = 2 hours 10 minutes = 130 minutes

a. (550 385)/110 = 1.5

a. (3.5 3.73)/.25 = -.92

a. .1587 + (1-.8413) = .3174

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