Iijee 2015 03 03 1

IPASJ International Journal of Electrical Engineering (IIJEE)
Web Site: http://www.ipasj.org/IIJEE/IIJEE.htm

Email: [email protected]
ISSN 2321-600X
A Publisher for Research Motivation........
Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015
Evaluation and Analysis of Electricity

Generating Sources Contribution in Nigerian
Energy Mix
EnemuohF.O1 , Anyaegbu J.C2 , Kelle C.M3
The Department of Electrical Engineering, NnamdiAzikiwe University Awka, Nigeria.
ABSTRACT
Access to diversified electricity generating methods is an enormous challenge facing developing country such as Nigeria
because electricity from multiple sources is fundamental for socioeconomic development and poverty eradication. Although
Nigeria is blessed with abundant natural resources, yet cannot adequately harness these resources for electricity generation. In
the present, over 80% of the Nigerian power generation comes from gas power stations and about 19.3% from hydro power
stations, thereby making the country exposed to energy challenges such as insufficient power supply and total black-out in most
part of the country when there is gas pipeline vandalization and inadequate rainfall reserves. A set of diversified shares of
energy sources contribution to electricity generation in the present, short, medium and long-term is analyzed. Energy
interventions are addressed such as promotion and exploitation of renewable energy resources that can make a major
contribution to the sustainable economic, environmental and social development of Nigeria, especially non-grid connected
rural communities.
Keywords- Electricity, Energy, Fossil, Power, Renewable.
1. INTRODUCTION
Power generating capacity of any nation often times determines its level of development and standard of living of its
citizen. The provision of regular, affordable and efficient electrical energy is crucial for growth, prosperity, national
security as well as the rapid industrialization of any society. It fuels productive activities which includes agriculture,
commerce, manufacturing and mining. Most developing countries such as Nigeria is faced with the challenge of energy
poverty which occurs when supply of energy falls below demand or expectation. The endemic power crisis came as a
result of the inability of the existing plants to meet the ever increasing demand. The energy supply-demand gulf exists
because of myriads of reasons such as obsolete and dilapidated plants with 36% of installed capacity are over 20 years
old, 48% are over 15 years old and 80% are over 10 years old [1]. The countrys current power generation stands at
3800MW and the per capita basis is among the lowest in the world when compared with the average per capita
electricity usage of counterpart nations. Since Nigeria is blessed with abundant fossil based and renewable energy
resources, there is need to harness these resources and chart a new energy future for the country because future
economic growth crucially depends on the long-term availability of electrical energy from various sources that are
affordable, accessible and environmentally friendly.
2. RESOURCES FOR ELECTRICITYGENERATION IN NIGERIA

Nigeria is Africas energy giant, endowed with sufficient energy resources to meet its present and future development
requirements. It is the continents most prolific oil producing country and possesses the worlds sixth largest reserve of
crude oil of about 33billion barrel. It is an increasingly an important gas province with proven estimated reserve of
about 187.44 trillion standard cubic feet in 2005 [2], and are known to be substantially larger than its oil resources in
energy terms. Coal and lignite reserves are estimated to be 2.75 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Identified large and
small hydro electricity power sites have an estimated capacity of about 11,250MW and 735MW respectively. Nigeria
has significant biomass resources to meet both traditional and modern energy uses, including electricity generation.
The country is exposed to a high solar radiation level of 3.7 7.0 Kwh/m2/day. Wind resources in Nigeria have an
annual average speed of 2 4 m/s at 10m height.
3. RENEWABLE AND NON-RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN NIGERIA

Renewable electricity refers to electric energy sources that do not result in the depletion of the earths resources. It also
includes energy sources and technologies that have minimal environmental impacts, such as hydropower, solar energy,
biomass cogeneration and wind energy for electricity production.
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ISSN 2321-600X
Hydropower- Nigerias hydro potential is high and hydro power currently accounts for about 30% of the total
installed commercial electric power capacity. The first large scale hydro power station in Nigeria was built in
Kainji on the river Niger with an installed capacity of 760MW and with expansion to 1150MW in 1968, then
followed by Jebba in 1984 and Shiroro in 1990 with installed capacity of 578.4MW and 600MW respectively. So
far about eight small hydro power stations with aggregate capacity of 39MW have been installed in Nigeria [3].
Meanwhile, there are over 278 unexploited small hydro potential sites which exist in virtually all part of the
country with total potentials of about 734.3MW some of which would be developed in National Integrated Power
Project (NIPP) second phase projects that involves the construction of at least 16 large, medium and small hydro
power plants. A typical micro hydro power station is as shown in Fig I.
Fig I: Micro hydro power station.

Solar energy- A great number of solar photovoltaic systems is used in the country by both the private sector and
government institutions that utilize solar energy for power back-ups, water pumping, rural electrification and
urban street lighting system. Also, International organizations in collaboration with the government of Nigeria
have assisted in providing solar refrigerators for National Programme on Immunization (NPI). There is still large
unexploited solar energy potentials, which if properly harnessed would meet a significant proportion of the energy
demand of the country with less deteriorating effects on the environment.
Biomass- The 5MW Ebonyi biomass gas turbine project being executed in collaboration with the United Nations
Industrial DevelopmentOrganisation (UNIDO) [4], sited at Ikwo near one of the modern rice mills. It will convert
rice husk into power. The generated power will be enormous as the rice mills will use 2MW while the Oferekpe
water scheme will use 1.5MW, the balance will go to the nearby communities.
Wind power- Huge potentials exists for harnessing strong wind energy along the northern plateau, coastal regions
and offshore areas of the country. The two pilot wind electricity projects in existence are the 5KWp
SayyaGidanGada wind electricity project in Sokoto State, and a 0.75KWp wind electricity project near Danjawa
village. The biggest wind power project in Nigeria when commissioned would be the 10MW wind power plant in
the small village of Rimi, 25KM south of Katsina City as shown in Fig II. The plant consists of 37 wind turbines
with a rated power of 275KW each.
Fig II: 10MW Katsina wind power station (275KW each).

Non-renewable electricity refers to electrical energy that is produced by burning of fossil fuels such as crude oil, natural
gas, coal, oil shale and tar sand. Fossil fuels are formed by the burying, subsequent pressure and heating of dead plants
and animals or biomass (organic matters), over millions of years [5]. The trapped energy can be released and utilized
for electricity generation when the fuels are burnt.
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ISSN 2321-600X
Coal thermal power- Commercial exploration of coal commenced in 1916 at Ogbete, Enugu State. Nigerias coal
characteristic properties of low sulphur, low ash content and low thermoplastic properties, makes these subbituminious coal ideal for coal-fired electric power plants. Fig III depicts a typical coal thermal power station. The
only coal-fired steam power stations in Nigeria are the 30MW Oji River power station which is non-functional, and
1200MW Zuma Energys coal power station at Itobe, Kogi State.
Fig III: Coal thermal power station.

Gas thermal power- Nigerias huge gas reserves are located in the Niger-Delta region of the country from where
it is explored, processed and transported via pipeline to industries and gas turbine power plants [6]. Over 80% of
present Nigerias power generation comes from gas power stations which are situated near the gas pipeline route in
South-West and Niger-Delta regions of the country. Table 1 shows the gas turbine power stations in Nigeria.
TABLE I.GAS TURBINE POWER STATIONS IN NIGERIA.
NAME OF POWER STATION
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
EGBIN
EGBIN AES
AFAM IV & V
SAPELE
SAPELE II
DELTA (UGHELLI)
GEREGU I
GEREGU II
OMOTOSHO I
OMOTOSHO II
OLORUNSHOGO I
OLORUNSHOGO II
OMOKU I
OMOKU II
AJAOKUTA
OKPAI
ALAOJI
IHOVBOR
CALABAR
EGBEMA
GBARAIN
SHELL
AGIP
DANGOTE POWER
CAPACITY
(MW)
1320
270
702
1020
508
840
414
506
335
513
335
754
150
265
110
480
1131
508
634
381
254
474
450
135
4. ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM VARIOUS ENERGY SOURCES INSTALLED

CAPACITY PROJECTION
The generation installed capacity projection based on compound-growth method is expressed by the following
equations.
y = antilog (a + bx) I
The constants a and b are determined by solving
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ISSN 2321-600X
.II
And
..III
Simultaneously where, x is the electricity generation year under consideration and y is the annual electricity installed
capacity (MW/h).
TABLE II. COMPOUND-GROWTH TREND VALUE FOR ANNUAL GENERATION INSTALLED CAPACITY
Year,x
Installed Capacity (MW), y
Log y
x Log y
x2
1. 1999
5579.921
3.747
3.747
2. 2000
5580.081
3.747
7.494
3. 2001
5579.944
3.747
11.241
4. 2002
5580.000
3.747
14.988
16
5. 2003
6179.885
3.791
18.955
25
6. 2004
6179.773
3.791
22.746
36
7. 2005
6527.153
3.815
26.705
49
8. 2006
8336.078
3.921
31.368
64
9. 2007
7914.505
3.898
35.082
81
10. 2008
8039.000
3.905
39.050
100
11. 2009
8693.850
3.939
43.329
121
12. 2010
8417.000
3.925
47.100
144
13. 2011
8902.000
3.949
51.337
169
14. 2012
9920.643
3.997
55.958
196
15. 2013
10,000.000
4.000
= 120
= 111429.833
60.000
= 57.919
225
=
= 1240
469.100
From the computation of Table II, we have;

= 120,
= 1240,
= 469.100 and
= 57.919
Substituting the value into Equation (ii) and (iii) and solving Equation (iv) and (v) simultaneously, we have;
57.919 = 15a + 120b. IV
469.100 = 120a + 1240b.. .V
The model for the annual installed capacity projection is therefore;
y = antilog (3.697 + 0.02x)... VI
The annualgeneration installed capacity projection for the future years are computed using equation (VI), the values
are recorded in Table III.
The percentage contributions of the Nigerian energy mix projections were computed with Wein Automatic System
Planning (WASP) model and the results for the various energy sources contribution is recorded in Table IV.
TABLE III. PROJECTED ANNUAL GENERATION INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW)
Year, x
Annual Installed Capacity (MW), y
16. 2014
10399.202
17. 2015
10889.301
18. 2016
11402.498
19. 2017
11939.881
20. 2018
12502.590
21. 2019
13091.819
22. 2020
13708.818
23. 2021
14354.894
24. 2022
15031.420
25. 2023
15379.829
26. 2024
16481.624
27. 2025
17258.379
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28. 2026
18071.741
29. 2027
18923.436
30. 2028
19815.270
31. 2029
20749.135
32. 2030
21727.012
TABLE IV. NIGERIAN ENERGY MIX PROJECTIONS

Resources
Now (2014)
Short Term (2020)
Medium Term (2025)
Long Term (2030)
Coal
0.00
1800.00 (13.1%)
2352.98 (13.6%)
3198.37 (14.7%)
Electricity Import
0.00
0.00
0.00
600.00 (2.8%)
Gas
8391.02 (80.7%)
9165.40 (66.9%)
9990.89 (57.9%)
10210.37 (47%)
Hydro
1938.00 (18.6%)
2319.53 (16.9%)
2433.43 (14.1%)
3506.74 (16.1%)
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
599.90 (3.5%)
1200.00 (5.5%)
Small Hydro
60.18 (0.6%)
169.90 (1.2%)
578.16 (3.4%)
814.76 (3.8%)
Solar
0.00
230.31 (1.7%)
1239.41 (7.2%)
1926.92 (8.9%)
Wind
10.00 (0.1%)
13.44 (0.1%)
27.90 (0.16%)
160.35 (0.74%)
Biomass
0.00
10.00 (0.07%)
35.70 (0.2%)
109.50 (0.5%)
Total Supply
10399.20
13708.82
17258.38
21727.01
5.ANALYSIS OF CONTRIBUTION OF VARIOUS ELECTRICITY GENERATING

SOURCES CONTRIBUTION IN NIGERIAN ENERGY MIX
Fig IV: Percentage Share of Present all Energy Source Contribution.
Fig V: Percentage Share of Short Term (2020) all Energy Source Contribution.
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Fig VI: Percentage Share of Medium Term (2025) all Energy Source Contribution.
Fig VII: Percentage Share of Long Term (2030) all Energy Source Contribution.
The countrys specific situation with respect to the achieved as well as the future potential shares of all electricity
sources contribution in Nigerian energy mix is depicted in Fig. IV-VII, for present, short, medium, and long-term
scenarios. It was observed that gas powered generation dominates the current energy mix in the country. In the present,
gas power accounts for 80.6% of electrical energy contribution and, of the other sources, only hydropower is of much
relevance with a contribution of 19.22%. Only in the short and medium-term does gas power have shares of 66.86%
and 57.89% respectively, while solar energy would attain a contribution share of 7.2% in medium-term from a shortterm contribution of 1.68%. The largest potential contribution would be from gas power (47%) in the long-term
percentage share of the Nigerian energy mix, followed by hydropower (19.89%), coal (14.7%) , solar (8.89%) as well as
promising future for nuclear (5.52%), wind (0.74%) and biomass (0.5%).
6. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DIVERSIFICATION OF NIGERIAN ENERGY MIX

It is established that balanced electrical energy generating mix is crucial for Nigeria to achieve a sustainable
development. Therefore, it is recommended that the country should do the following:
Carry out a resource survey and assessment to determine the total renewable and fossil based electricity generating
potentials in the country as well as identify the local conditions and local priorities in various ecological zones.
Promote decentralize electrical energy supply sources especially in the rural area, based on renewable energy
resources.
Government agencies in the power sector should take advantage of global partnerships with international
organizations to assist the country in the integration of various power generating methods.
Development of appropriate drivers and enabling environment by Government through policies that will
democratize Nigerian energy markets, which would allow a large number of actors to participate in the power
generation business, including small and medium size companies, farmers, and private persons.
Political decision makers should create laws that encourage green electricity promotion such as Feed-in-Tariff
system that would mandate power producers to include a certain share of renewable electricity in their generation.
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ISSN 2321-600X
7. CONCLUSION
From the energy outlook of Nigeria, there is clear evidence that the country is blessed with abundant resources of fossil
based fuels as well as renewable energy resources. The major challenge is an insufficient and inefficient usage of
energy. As a result, there is an urgent need to encourage the evolvement of an energy mix that will emphasize the
conservation of petroleum resources in such a manner that would enable their continued exploration for foreign earning
for as many years as possible. The development and implementation of renewable energy generating projects which
have abundant availability of raw material (resources) especially in the rural communities across the country will
provide more efficient energy supply that is cost effective with less environmental impact, better system capability and
better facilities security. The energy generation and supply mix must thus be diversified through installing an
appropriate infrastructure and creating full awareness to promote and develop the abundant renewable energy resources
present in the country as well as to enhance the security of supply in order to avert looming energy crisis.
REFERENCES
[1] Olorunkanmi O.J, Issues and Challenges in the Privatized Power Sector in Nigeria, Journal of Sustainable
Development Studies, Vol. 6, Nov 2014, Pp 161-174.
[2] Sambo A.S, Matching Electricity Supply with Demand in Nigeria, International Association of Energy
Economics, 4th quarter, 2008,Pp 32-36.
[3] Jimoh O.D, Operation of KainjiReservior in a Changing Hydrology, Nigerian Journal of Engineering, Ahmadu
Bello University,Zaria, Vol 14, No. 1, Pp53-60.
[4] Nwofe P.A, Utilization of Solar and Biomass Energy- A Panacea to Energy Sustainability in a Developing
Economy, International Journal of Energy and Environmental Research, Vol. 2, No 3,Sept 2014, Pp 10-19.
[5] Sharma P.C, Power Plant Engineering,S.K. Kataria, Delhi, 2007, p407.
[6] Nigeria Infrastructure Advisory Facility retrieved from http://niaf.org/powering-nigerias-future-from-gas/
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IPASJ International Journal of Electrical Engineering (IIJEE)

Web Site: http://www.ipasj.org/IIJEE/IIJEE.htm

A Publisher for Research Motivation........

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

Evaluation and Analysis of Electricity

Keywords- Electricity, Energy, Fossil, Power, Renewable.

2. RESOURCES FOR ELECTRICITYGENERATION IN NIGERIA

3. RENEWABLE AND NON-RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN NIGERIA

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

IPASJ International Journal of Electrical Engineering (IIJEE)

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

Web Site: http://www.ipasj.org/IIJEE/IIJEE.htm

Fig I: Micro hydro power station.

Fig II: 10MW Katsina wind power station (275KW each).

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

IPASJ International Journal of Electrical Engineering (IIJEE)

A Publisher for Research Motivation........

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

Fig III: Coal thermal power station.

4. ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM VARIOUS ENERGY SOURCES INSTALLED

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

IPASJ International Journal of Electrical Engineering (IIJEE)

A Publisher for Research Motivation........

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

Installed Capacity (MW), y

From the computation of Table II, we have;

Annual Installed Capacity (MW), y

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

IPASJ International Journal of Electrical Engineering (IIJEE)

A Publisher for Research Motivation........

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

TABLE IV. NIGERIAN ENERGY MIX PROJECTIONS

Short Term (2020)

Medium Term (2025)

Long Term (2030)

5.ANALYSIS OF CONTRIBUTION OF VARIOUS ELECTRICITY GENERATING

Fig IV: Percentage Share of Present all Energy Source Contribution.

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

IPASJ International Journal of Electrical Engineering (IIJEE)

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

Web Site: http://www.ipasj.org/IIJEE/IIJEE.htm

6. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DIVERSIFICATION OF NIGERIAN ENERGY MIX

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

IPASJ International Journal of Electrical Engineering (IIJEE)

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

Web Site: http://www.ipasj.org/IIJEE/IIJEE.htm

Volume 3, Issue 3, March 2015

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