Uncertainty Analysis of Power System Components Based On Stochastic Response Surfaces
Uncertainty Analysis of Power System Components Based On Stochastic Response Surfaces
Uncertainty Analysis of Power System Components Based On Stochastic Response Surfaces
I. INTRODUCTION
usa , sb , sc = Rs isa , sb , sc +
ura ,rb ,rc = Rr ira ,rb ,rc +
d
dt
d
dt
sa ,sb , sc
(1)
ra ,rb,rc
(2)
with ira, irb and irc the phase currents in the rotor, isa, isb and isc
the phase currents in the stator, ura, urb and urc the rotor phase
voltages, usa, usb and usc the stator phase voltages, ra, rb and
rc the rotor flux and sa, sb and sc the stator flux. These
equations can be simplified according to established
transformations in electrical engineering [1], i.e. the
transformation of rotor and stator variables to the -reference
frame (Clarke transformation) [4] and the transformation to
the dq-reference frame (Park transformation) [5]. Depending
on the chosen reference frame, this can lead to different
expressions for the torque. The expression for the torque,
obtained according to a reference frame rotating with the rotor
flux, becomes:
Lh
Lr
rd isq = p
Lh 2
Lr
i isq
(3)
Lr di
Rr dt
+ i = isd
= r +
Rr isq
Lr i
(4)
(5)
Corr ( X , Y ) =
(X
the first few and the last few points show a marked departure
from the reference fitted line. The non-linearity of the normal
probability plot also shows up in the S-like pattern in the
center of the data set. In this case it can be reasonably
concluded that the normal distribution can be improved upon
as a model for these data.
X ) (Yi Y )
(6)
(X
X ) 2 (Yi Y )2
PARAMETER
Lr
Rr
Lh
MEAN
Lr
Rr
Lh
Tel
0.00398
0.32292
0.14595
20.9468
STANDARD
DEVIATION
0.000084
0.004183
0.001210
0.258589
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
0.99246
0.98024
0.96473
The above methods give a decisive answer about the first two
parameters. The normal distribution provides a good model
for the data. For the last dataset the normal distribution can be
improved upon as a model for these data. However, since the
influence of this motor parameter is limited, the distribution is
assumed normal in this paper. Figure 4 shows the cumulative
probability of the dataset. All the data points are located in the
99% confidence bounds of the normal fit. The assumption of
normality seems to be a plausible choice.
Fig. 8. Mean and Standard deviation for Random Sampling and Latin
Hypercube Sampling at 55 and 200 samples
(7)
(9)
+ a71 2 + a813 + a9 23
The values of the coefficients ai (i=1,,10) are shown in
Table 3. The statistical properties of the torque can be easily
deduced from this expression. By taking a large number of
samples of the standard random variables, the probability
distribution can be calculated using standard methods. The
first and second moment of the output variable are calculated
through:
1
N
T2 =
1 N
(Tel ,i Tel )2
N 1 i =1
el
i1
i1
i2
i1 =1 i2 =1
(8)
T =
el
T
i =1
(10)
el ,i
(11)
TABLE III
COEFFICIENTS OF THE EXPANSION
COEFFICIENT
a0
a1
a2
a3
a4
a5
a6
a7
a8
a9
VALUE
20.9468
0.22773
0.10912
-0.05663
-0.00047
0.00038
-0.00007
-0.00011
0.00001
0.00004
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
[7]
[8]
[9]
[10]
[11]
[12]
[13]
[14]
[15]
[16]
Fig. 10. Comparison of second and third order Polynomial Chaos expansion
and Monte Carlo simulations
VI. CONCLUSIONS
In this paper an uncertainty analysis of a torque estimation
model is performed. After the characterization of the input
parameters, a simple sensitivity test is performed to achieve a
better understanding of the behavior of the model. To provide
adequate information about the nature of the output
uncertainty three sampling based methods are compared.
From Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling method the
distribution of the output can be deduced, however these
methods are computationally expensive. It is proven that the
stochastic response surface method is more efficient to
analyze the torque estimation model.
It is the authors strong opinion other branches in probabilistic
power system analysis can benefit as well from the presented
approach.
VII. REFERENCES
[1]
[2]