Rogers 2014 State of The Oceans

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD,
TINBERGEN BUILDING,
SOUTH PARKS ROAD,
OXFORD,
OX1 3PS
SOMERVILLE COLLEGE,
WOODSTOCK ROAD,
OXFORD,
OX2 6HD
The IPSO State of the Oceans

Report 2013
Prof. Alex David Rogers,

Email: [email protected]
January 29, 2014
IPSO meetings 2011 and 2012
The state of the ocean
January 29, 2014

Page 2
The Ocean
How inappropriate to call this planet Earth when it is quite clearly ocean
Arthur C Clarke
Oceans cover 71% Earths surface

Deep-ocean (>200m depth) ~ 360 million km2
Ocean volume is >1.3 billion km3 (70% High
seas)
January 29, 2014

Page 3
Goods and services provided by the

oceans
CO2 sequestration & storage

(~ third emissions)
Oxygen production (40-50%)
Major role in nutrient cycling
Major role in Earths hydrology
Thermoregulation of the planet
Food (fish, shellfish, algae)
Fuel/energy
Transport
Waste disposal
Coastal protection
Medicines and technologies
Cultural importance / biophilia
January 29, 2014

Page 4
Long-term changes in latitudinal SST anomalies
Globally synchronous changes from

tropics to poles with intensification of
warming coinciding with El Nios
Reid & Beaugrand (2012) JMBA
January 29, 2014

Page 5
The biological impacts

of warming
Projections by Cheung et al.,
(2009) of changes in
distribution of >1000 species
by 2050
Species invasions
Mid-high latitude
Local extinction
Tropics and high latitude
Species turnover
Mid-high latitudes
Cheung et al (2009) Fish & Fisheries 10: 235-251
The state of the oceans
January 29, 2014

Page 6
Broadly fits with observations of range

shifts and changes in phenology
1735 studies / responses; 81-83% changes consistent with climate change expectations
Poloczanska et al. (2013) Nature Climate Change 3: 919-925
January 29, 2014

Page 7
Habitat loss: hypoxia and anoxia in the

coastal and open ocean
January 29, 2014

Page 8
The spread of dead zones and relationship

to human footprint
Relationship between human footprint and occurrence of

dead zones generated by nutrient enrichment
January 29, 2014

Page 9
Loss of habitat in blue marlin as a result of

shoaling of oxygen minimum zone
OMZ defined as area
where oxygen conc.
drops below 3.5ml l-1
Lower habitat boundary
for blue marlin and other
pelagic fish
Estimated habitat has
decreased by 15% from
1960-2010 in tropical
Northeast Atlantic
Stramma et al. 2011 Nature Climate Change 2:
DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE1304
January 29, 2014

Page 10
CO2 is converted to carbonic acid in

seawater which then lowers pH and
converts carbonate to bicarbonate
Result is a reduction
in the availability of
aragonite, the form
of calcium carbonate
that corals build their
skeletons from.
January 29, 2014

Page 11
Current CO2 levels highest for 15MY and possibly 34MY.

Rate of change of CO2 is possibly highest for 300MY (Bijma
et al. (2013) MPB
Turley et al 2006.
January 29, 2014

Page 12
First evidence of direct impacts of

acidification from Antarctica
Pteropods in natural area of upwelling found to have severely corroded shells as

a result of acidification and natural low pH of upwelled seawater.
Tarling et al. (2012) Nature Geoscience
January 29, 2014

Page 13
Fisheries: food security and employment
Marine fisheries ~ 79.5 million tonnes

per year (drop from 86.3mt)
20% protein intake for 1.5 billion

people; 15% for 3 billion people
(>40% popn)
>230 million people dependent on

small-scale fisheries for livelihoods
Artisanal fisheries ~ 25% of the global

marine catch ~ 40% of the catch for
human consumption
What have the high seas got to do

with coastal fisheries?
January 29, 2014

Page 14
The state of fisheries

Overall, global catches are declining
Masks very different regional trends
N America, Europe and Oceania (2025% of global catch) catch is stabilising

at ~32% virgin biomass. About half of
these stocks are expected to rebuild
with careful management
Biomass relative to virgin biomass with 95% CL (line)

FAO figures (filled circles)
445 large stocks monitored by FAO

(80% of global catch) show a
continuous declining trend (illustrated)
Worm & Branch Trends Ecol Evol
Blue line catches (FAO_

Red Line fishing power
January 29, 2014

Page 15
Unused and unmanaged catch (by-catch)
Estimated as 38.5 million tonnes

in 2009 for landed catch of 95.2
million tonnes (40.4% Davies et
al., 2009 Marine Policy 33: 661)
Catch that is unused or

unmanaged
Tendency to use more of the bycatch as previous target species

become depleted
In Europe 10-60% of the catch is

discarded depending on fishery
January 29, 2014

Page 16
Out of sight out of mind: the ecosystem

impacts of fishing
Angelshark (Squatinidae). Puerto del Carmen, Lanzarote,

Canary islands, Spain. November 2006 Carlos Surez (Oceana)
Endangered
sharks
NE Atlantic
Reasons for decline of endangered/
threatened species: Mediterranean
(42% species threatened) IUCN SSG
IUCN SSG
January 29, 2014

Page 17
Albatross bycatch
January 29, 2014

Page 18
Impacts of trawling
January 29, 2014

Page 19
South Australian (Tasmanian) Seamounts
January 29, 2014

Page 20
Habitat alteration or destruction
January 29, 2014

Page 21
Pollutants
Legacy contaminants
- Antifoulants (e.g. tributyltin)
- Heavy metals
- Polychlorinated biphenyls
- Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
Emerging contaminants
- Endocrine disrupters
- Flame retardants
- Fragrances
- Pharmaceuticals
- Plastics
January 29, 2014

Page 22
New activities new stakeholders
Marine mining
(Nautilus Minerals
PNG currently
halted)
January 29, 2014

Page 23
Four different deposits of interest in very

different environments
Marine phosphates (Namibia Phosphate)
Seamount cobalt crusts (BGR)
Seabed massive sulphides

(Dragon vent field NERC)
Manganese nodules (Census of Marine Life /

Aker Wirth)
January 29, 2014

Page 24
Ecosystem-based management:
maintaining a healthy ocean
Goal: maintain an ecosystem in a healthy, productive and

resilient condition so that it can provide the services we need
January 29, 2014

Page 25
Reforming fisheries management
Decisions based on science
Transparent decision making
Technical modification of gear to reduce by-catch, eliminate

most destructive fishing practices
Improved monitoring, control and surveillance, better

enforcement
Classify illegal fishing as a transnational crime, penalise flag

states that do not control their vessels
Reduce overcapacity and eliminate harmful (capacity

enhancing) subsidies
January 29, 2014

Page 26
What do whales do
for us?
January 29, 2014

Page 27
Whales swim around in the ocean and dive

to fantastic depths
Sperm whales dive to a depth of

1,200m or more to forage for food
(squid)
Watwood et al. (2006) J Anim Ecol 75: 814-825
January 29, 2014

Page 28
The importance of swimming / diving toothed

whales in a vertically-stratified ocean
Toothed whales may
contribute ~17Gw yr-1
of energy to ocean mixing
About 0.5-1% of the total
required energy for ocean
mixing.
Approximately the stirring
effect of the entire Hawaiian
Island chain.
Total biological stirring ~1Tw
stirring from physical effects
~2-3 Tw
Dewar et al. (2006) Oceanography 20: 162-171
January 29, 2014

Page 29
Whale defecation and iron

12,000 sperm whales in the
Southern Ocean release 50t yr-1
iron into surface waters
This is a high nutrient-low
chlorophyll ocean, i.e. it is iron
limited
Stimulates the export of 4 x 105t
carbon from euphotic zone.
Whales respire 2x105
Lavery et al. (2010) Proc. Roy Soc B: 277: 35273531.
January 29, 2014

Page 30
No legal framework for MPAs on

The High Seas
The state of the oceans
January 29, 2014

Page 31
Why should we care about the high seas?

Highly connected nature of marine ecosystems
Why the ocean is

important.
Block et al (2011) Nature

January 29, 2014
Doi:10.1038/nature10082
Page 32
Species that live in the high seas and in EEZs

represent 67.5% of annual catch (56.7 million tonnes)
Caught in high seas ~ 10.7Mt ($17 billion)

Only caught in EEZs ~ 27.8 Mt ($31 billion)
Only caught in high seas ~ 3500t ($3.4 million)
Sumaila
January 29, 2014

Page 33
Patterns of primary production and carbon export

Influenced by:
Climate change
Fishing
Shipping?
Pollution?
Mining?
Why the ocean is

important.
January 29, 2014

Page 34
Value of the high seas as a carbon sink

Carbon sequestration
(Gt per year)*
Carbon price
($ per tCO2)
Low = 11
Medium = 55
High = 101
Low = 0.318
3.5
17.5
32.1
Medium = 0.636 High = 0.954

7.0
10.5
35.0
52.5
64.2
96.4
*1 Gigatonne (Gt) = billion t.

** Values are in $ billion.
Sumaila & Rogers
January 29, 2014

Page 35
Should the high seas be closed to fishing?

Reduce fishing
pressure on stocks
More sustainable
and economically
viable fisheries
Greater global
equity in economic
terms
Less destruction of
ecosystem
January 29, 2014

Page 36
What we dont know.....
Increasing evidence life structures

marine ecosystems examples:
stirring of the oceans; active
transport; fertilisation of surface
January 29, 2014

Page 37
Summary
The oceans are under multiple human stressors at a range of

spatial and temporal scales
Change in marine ecosystems is occurring at a very rapid pace

often with little knowledge or understanding of the implications
Main impacts to date are from overexploitation of marine living

resources, pollution, habitat destruction and climate change
Technical fixes to some problems understood (e.g. fishing)
There needs to be a complete revision of our relationship to the

ocean that fully values the ecosystem goods it produces
Lack of knowledge is a major barrier to ecological economic

approaches
January 29, 2014

Page 38

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY

The IPSO State of the Oceans

Prof. Alex David Rogers,

January 29, 2014

IPSO meetings 2011 and 2012

The state of the ocean

January 29, 2014

Oceans cover 71% Earths surface

The state of the ocean

January 29, 2014

Goods and services provided by the

CO2 sequestration & storage

January 29, 2014

Long-term changes in latitudinal SST anomalies

Globally synchronous changes from

January 29, 2014

The biological impacts

January 29, 2014

Broadly fits with observations of range

January 29, 2014

Habitat loss: hypoxia and anoxia in the

The state of the ocean

January 29, 2014

The spread of dead zones and relationship

Relationship between human footprint and occurrence of

January 29, 2014

Loss of habitat in blue marlin as a result of

The state of the ocean

January 29, 2014

CO2 is converted to carbonic acid in

The state of the ocean

January 29, 2014

Current CO2 levels highest for 15MY and possibly 34MY.

January 29, 2014

First evidence of direct impacts of

Pteropods in natural area of upwelling found to have severely corroded shells as

January 29, 2014

Fisheries: food security and employment

Marine fisheries ~ 79.5 million tonnes

20% protein intake for 1.5 billion

>230 million people dependent on

Artisanal fisheries ~ 25% of the global

What have the high seas got to do

January 29, 2014

The state of fisheries

N America, Europe and Oceania (2025% of global catch) catch is stabilising

Biomass relative to virgin biomass with 95% CL (line)

445 large stocks monitored by FAO

Blue line catches (FAO_

The state of the ocean

January 29, 2014

Unused and unmanaged catch (by-catch)

Estimated as 38.5 million tonnes

Catch that is unused or

Tendency to use more of the bycatch as previous target species

In Europe 10-60% of the catch is

The state of the ocean

January 29, 2014

Out of sight out of mind: the ecosystem