CHAPTER ONE

1.0

INTRODUCTION

Timely identification of newly emerging trends is very important to businesses. Sales patterns of
customer segments indicate market trends. Upward and downward trends in sales signify new
market trends. Time-series predictive modeling can be used to identify market trends embedded
in changes of sales revenues.
Predictive analytics encompasses a variety of techniques from statistics, modeling, machine
learning, and data mining that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about
future, or otherwise unknown, events.
In business, predictive models exploit patterns found in historical and transactional data to
identify risks and opportunities. Models capture relationships among many factors to allow
assessment of risk or potential associated with a particular set of conditions, guiding decision
making for candidate transactions.
Predictive
analytics
is
used
in actuarial
science, marketing financial
services, insurance, telecommunications, retail, travel, healthcare, pharmaceuticals and other
fields.
One of the most well known applications is credit scoring, which is used throughout financial
services. Scoring models process a customer's credit history, loan application, customer data,
etc., in order to rank-order individuals by their likelihood of making future credit payments on
time
Predictive models analyze past performance to assess how likely a customer is to exhibit a
specific behavior in order to improve marketing effectiveness. This category also encompasses
models that seek out subtle data patterns to answer questions about customer performance, such
as fraud detection models. Predictive models often perform calculations during live transactions,
for example, to evaluate the risk or opportunity of a given customer or transaction, in order to
guide a decision. With advancements in computing speed, individual agent modeling systems
have become capable of simulating human behaviors or reactions to given stimuli or scenarios.
The new term for animating data specifically linked to an individual in a simulated environment
is avatar analytics
Understanding of sales trends is important for marketing as well as for customer retention.
Regression is an analytic technique used in developing predictive models for numerical data. It
automatically derives mathematical functions that summarize trends embedded in past historical
data, in such a way that minimizes the errors between actual input data and predicted values by
the models. Regression can be applied to time-series data. A time-series consists of a set of
observations which are measured at specific time intervals, say, monthly, quarterly, yearly, etc.
Observations we are interested are sales revenues.
Page 1 of 36

The analytical technique used for this research is the time series model. It is used for predicting
or forecasting the future behavior of variables. These models account for the fact that data points
taken over time may have an internal structure (such as autocorrelation, trend or seasonal
variation) that should be accounted for. As a result standard regression techniques cannot be
applied to time series data and methodology has been developed to decompose the trend,
seasonal and cyclical component of the series. Modeling the dynamic path of a variable can
improve forecasts since the predictable component of the series can be projected into the future.
Time series models estimate difference equations containing stochastic components. Two
commonly used forms of these models are autoregressive models (AR) and moving
average (MA) models. The Box-Jenkins methodology (1976) developed by George Box and
G.M. Jenkins combines the AR and MA models to produce the ARMA (autoregressive moving
average) model which is the cornerstone of stationary time series analysis. ARIMA
(autoregressive integrated moving average models) on the other hand are used to describe nonstationary time series. Box and Jenkins suggest differencing a non stationary time series to obtain
a stationary series to which an ARMA model can be applied. Non stationary time series have a
pronounced trend and do not have a constant long-run mean or variance.
Box and Jenkins proposed a three stage methodology which includes: model identification,
estimation and validation. The identification stage involves identifying if the series is stationary
or not and the presence of seasonality by examining plots of the series, autocorrelation and
partial autocorrelation functions. In the estimation stage, models are estimated using non-linear
time series or maximum likelihood estimation procedures. Finally the validation stage involves
diagnostic checking such as plotting the residuals to detect outliers and evidence of model fit.

Nyce, Charles (2007), Predictive Analytics White Paper, American Institute for Chartered
Property Casualty Underwriters/Insurance Institute of America.

1.2

SCOPE AND LIMITATION

1.2.1 SCOPE
NBC operates the Apapa Plant since 1958 and is located in the Apapa area of Lagos State in
South-West Nigeria. The Apapa plant is responsible for the production of Coca-Cola, Fanta,
Sprite and Schweppes and distribution of all product categories. Coca-Cola was an instant hit
with the Nigerian consumer and has remained so. Over the next six decades, NBC has continued
on its journey keeping its promise of refreshing consumers, strengthening its communities,
enriching the workplace and preserving the environment while recording many memorable
milestones along the way.
Page 2 of 36

1.2.2 LIMITATION
The process of getting the data for this research was quite cumbersome, demanding but on the
overall, its quite rewarding.

1.3

OBJECTIVES of the Study

1.
2.

To fit a model to the sales of each soft drink and forecast with it.
To compare the sales performance of the soft drinks

1.4

LITERATURE REVIEW

Some of the greatest contributors to the theme of the study are:

Christensen and Brogan (1971) in a journal on modeling and optimal control of a production
process disclosed that an industrial production process is modeled as a discrete-time system with
a disturbance input due to sales.. The state consists of rates of flow of parts or subassemblies at
various work stations, backlogs of parts awaiting processing, and the inventory level of the
finished product. The control variables are the man-hours scheduled for various work processes.
A quadratic performance criterion is minimized so as to keep state and control variables near
desired values. Dynamic programming is used and numerical examples are provided
Mandal (1980) in an article on vendor selection using interpretive structural modeling wrote that
Vendor selection is one of the most important activities of a purchasing department.
Traditionally, vendors are selected for their ability to meet the quality requirement, delivery
performance and the price offered. However, as they are selected not only to meet the immediate
requirement but also future needs, one needs to consider many other factors when selecting a
reliable vendor. Analyses some of the most important criteria which have been classified into
four categories: autonomous, dependent, linkage and driver depending on their driver power and
dependence. Develops an interpretive structural model (ISM) to show the inter-relationship of
different criteria and their levels of importance in the vendor selection process. Reveals that
attitude and willingness for business and after sales service are as important factors as
quality, delivery and practice. These criteria are dependent on all the others. This analysis could
provide a meaningful analytical base in the vendor selection process.
Betts et al (1996) in his article on Consumer behavior and the retail sales noted that In spite of
the ubiquity of seasonal and other retail sales, they have been curiously neglected within the
Page 3 of 36

marketing literature. This is most surprising, given their impact on profit-margins, brand/store
images, supplier-retailer relationships and consumer behavior. Since 1980, the effects of
comparison price advertising on consumer behavior have received growing attention from
researchers, although much of this literature has been at the individual product level and
confined to groceries. Builds on this research in the specific context of store wide sales, where
the impact of reductions extends far beyond the sum of individual price changes. Based on focus
groups and preliminary surveys of sale shoppers, develops and tests a typology of motivations.
Presents taxonomy of responses to sales, illustrating alternative behavioral responses.
Concludes with a model of the attitude problem brought about by recession, overcapacity,
overuse of the strategy and growing skepticism on the part of consumers.
Simon et al (1999) in an article on modeling of the cycle of products with data acquisition
features were of the opinion that Domestic appliances are long-lived and relatively expensive
products that come under the new EC electrical waste recovery directive. In the UK, washing
machines in particular tend to be unreliable; increasing the reuse of components could improve
the economics of end-of-life operations. Trends in appliance design are towards more
sophisticated control and networking; this makes adding functions to record data on the use of
the machines feasible. The data would also have value for life cycle environmental assessment.
The paper reports on the development of self-contained data acquisition units for washing
machines based on a microcontroller and non-volatile memory. The data has applications in
design, marketing and servicing as well as end-of-life. A batch of units have been manufactured
and tested on limited field trials in washing machines. Ten parameters are continuously
monitored, timed and/or recorded during appliance operation; error conditions are also logged
for use during servicing. The data is then downloaded, either during servicing or at end-of-life;
the dynamic data from use is combined with static data from manufacture. The information
system which links all parties interested in the data is the key aspect of life cycle data
acquisition. Two models are described which evaluate the economic benefits of adding such
functions to products: a steady-state model as used by previous authors who were concerned with
end-of-life product treatment and a more sophisticated transient model that accurately reflects the
limited life of designs. Results show that in this case, more reusable components arise from
servicing rather than from end-of-life recovery of parts. The cost savings from increased reuse
are also estimated to be comparable to the additional cost of the system; greater savings could
well arise from the use of the use data in marketing.

Page 4 of 36

Heyse and Wei (2005) in a book on modeling the advertising-sales relationship through use of
multiple time series techniques were of the view that when time series data are available for both
advertising and sales, it may be worthwhile to model the two series jointly. Such an analysis may
contribute to our understanding of the dynamic relationships among the series and may improve
the accuracy of forecasts. Multiple time series techniques are applied to the well-known Lydia
Pinkham data to illustrate their use in modeling the advertising-sales relationship. In analyzing
the Lydia Pinkham data the need for a joint model is established and a bivariate model is
identified, estimated and checked. Its forecasting properties are discussed and compared to other
time series approaches.
Hoptroff (2005) in a journal on the principles and practice of time series forecasting and business
modeling using neural nets used a hands-on practical discussion of how and why neural
networks are used in forecasting and business modeling. The need for forecasting is briefly
examined. The theory of the multilayer preceptor neural network is then covered both
qualitatively and in mathematical detail, including the methods of back-propagation of error and
independent validation. The advantages of the neural net approach to forecasting, namely
nonlinear modeling capability, plausible interpolations and extrapolations, robustness to noise,
ill-conditioning and insufficient data, and ease of use, are discussed. Finally, some working notes
are offered for the practical implementation of neural nets in forecasting, and four real-life
examples are given from the pursuits of econometrics, sales forecasting, market modelling, and
risk evaluation.
Gupta et al (2005) in a journal on differential sales tax structure noted that it contributes
significantly to distribution network decisions that build logistics inefficiencies in firms
operating in India. In this paper, we develop a model for determining distribution centers (DCs)
locations considering the impact of CST. A non-linear mixed integer-programming problem that
is formulated initially is approximated to a mixed integer-programming problem. Using a
numeric example, the effect of CST rates and product variety on DC locations is studied and
found to be having impact. It is felt that the Indian Government proposal to switch over from the
present sales tax regime to value added tax (VAT) regime would significantly contribute to
reducing the logistics inefficiencies of Indian firms.
Burgess (2006) in a book on modeling business profitability noted that various methods are in
use for the top down assessment and comparison of the future profitability of businesses. The
most advanced is the PAR equation of the PIMS programme, which combines quantitative
evaluations of the average effect of various business characteristics on profitability. However it
is not a true model in the OR sense being essentially a linear regression equation. The proposed
new approach is a first attempt to combine the characteristics in a way which models the
bargaining of customers with suppliers who are in competition for the supply of a bulk product.
All the constants in the resulting non-linear equation (called 5C) are meaningful in marketing or
production terms. The model is in a preliminary non-optimized state, but seems to offer
opportunities for ongoing development. It is in this spirit that it is offered for discussion.
Page 5 of 36

Buzzell and Wiersema (2006) in a journal on modeling changes in market share noted that the
decision to build market share has major resource-allocation implications. To aid managers in
assessing these implications, research was conducted to determine general relationships between
changes in market share and variables representing market strategies and competitive position.
The research was based on multiproduct, cross-sectional regression analyses and includes
variables that are - or should be readily available to most businesses.
Chanda and Bardhan (2008) in a book on modeling innovation wrote that Majority of consumer
durables have multiple technological generations. Each succeeding generation offers some
innovative performance enhancements, feature additions etc. distinguishing itself from the past
releases. Therefore the consumer's attitude towards each of them can be very different. There is a
need to understand consumer psychology and have accurate measure to predict the adoption
process of new technology. Mathematical models have proved to be ideal tools to explain the
past purchasing-behavior and also for forecasting. This paper focuses on studying the relative
changes of diffusion parameters for both first time purchasers and upgraders along with
developing a more general sales model for multiple technology generation products. The
proposed model explicitly identifies different groups of purchaser viz. first timers and repeaters
(upgraders).
Themido et al (2006) in a journal on modeling the retail sale of gasoline described the modelling
approach for the sales of gasoline in service stations located in a Portuguese metropolitan area.
The models were developed for planning purposes in order to assess potential sales of new sites.
The estimates produced are more accurate than those made by previous models and are currently
being used to support investment decisions of the largest Portuguese company. Starting from a
basic multiplicative regression model, several segmentations of the service stations were
obtained. Among these, the sub-models for service stations located in urban areas and for service
stations located along routes produced a better fit. The models reflect, without exception, the
importance of the variables representing the size of service station and the traffic passing by,
as well as variables which express location and road type. The fast growth experienced by this
market explains the lesser impact on sales of the area sales potential and of competition.

Page 6 of 36

CHAPTER TWO

2.0

DATA COLLECTION

2.1

METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION

The data collected is a raw or primary data. The data was collected by method of Registration.
The statistics of sales are taken immediately they are made.

2.2

DATA COLLECTED

The products whose sales were considered in this research are:

2.2.1 COCA COLA

Coca-Cola is the most popular and biggest-selling soft drink in history. An icon of all times,
Coca-Cola is the best-known product in the world.
Created in Atlanta, Georgia, by Dr. John S. Pemberton, Coca-Cola was first offered as a fountain
beverage by mixing Coca-Cola syrup with carbonated water. Coca-Cola was introduced in 1886,
patented in 1887, registered as a trademark in 1893 and by 1895 it was being sold in every state
and territory in the United States. In 1899, The Coca-Cola Company began franchised bottling
operations in and outside the United States taking Coca-Cola to consumers in other parts of
North America and Europe and in subsequent years to other parts of the world.
In 1951, the refreshing wave of Coca-Cola arrived in Nigeria and has remained a hit with
consumers across the country.

Coca-Cola is available in: 35cl and 50cl classic glass contour bottle; 33cl on-the-go Can, 50cl
and 1.5L PET bottle.
Coca-cola is made with Carbonated water, sugar, Carbon-dioxide, caffeine, Phosphoric acid,
caramel color and flavoring.

Page 7 of 36

2.2.2 FANTA
Fanta is a bubbly, fruity, and colorful sparkling drink. The brand represents a playful spirit;
appealing to everyone to laugh, play and take life less seriously.
Launched in 1960, Fanta is the second oldest brand of The Coca-Cola Company in Nigeria.
Fanta is enjoyed more than 130 million times everyday worldwide.
In Nigeria, Fanta is available in orange and pineapple flavors.
Fanta is available in: 35cl and 50cl glass bottle; 33cl on-the-go Can and 50cl PET bottle.
Fanta is made of Carbonated water, sugar, citric acid, ascorbic acid, stabilizers, flavorings,
sodium benzoate and colouring.

2.2.3 SPRITE
Sprite is the world's leading lemon-lime flavored soft drink. It is sold in more than 190 countries
including Nigeria and ranks as the No. 4 soft drink worldwide. With a strong appeal to young
people, Sprite is often perceived as the better for you Sparkling Beverage because of its clear
color, caffeine-free, and naturally flavored formula.
Packaged in the familiar green dimpled bottle with the shoulders, millions of people enjoy Sprite
because of its crisp, clean taste that really quenches your thirst. Sprite also has an honest,
straightforward attitude that sets it apart from other soft drinks and offers a total freedom from
thirst.
To appeal to its large youthful consumer base as well as bring out the creativity and ingenuity in
this group, Sprite has engaged in the Sprite Triple Slam activation. The Sprite Triple Slam is a
property of the Sprite brand that combines three fun elements of basketball, music and dance..

Sprite is available in: 35cl and 50cl glass bottle; 33cl on-the-go Can and 50cl PET bottle.
Sprite is made of Carbonated water, sugar, citric acid, flavorings, sodium salt, and sodium
benzoate.

http://www.nigerianbottlingcompanyltd.com/Productsandbrands/Sparklingbeverages

Page 8 of 36

CHAPTER THREE

3.0

DATA ANALYSIS

3.1

Time Series

3.1.1 Coke
Year

Variable (Coke)

YEAR_ MONTH_

DATE_

Pred._Coke Forecast

2001

3163820

2001

Jan-01

2001

3163367

2001

Feb-01

3164555

2001

3163453

2001

Mar-01

3164546

2001

3164120

2001

Apr-01

3164711

2001

3165928

2001

5 May-01

3165196

2001

3165387

2001

Jun-01

3166426

2001

3168931

2001

Jul-01

3166645

2001

3168740

2001

Aug-01

3168782

2001

3169621

2001

Sep-01

3169545

2001

3169541

2001

10

Oct-01

3170452

2001

3169897

2001

11

Nov-01

3170827

2001

3170620

2001

12

Dec-01

3171236

2002

3175360

2002

Jan-02

3171641

2002

3177768

2002

Feb-02

3174468

2002

3178135

2002

Mar-02

3176950

2002

3176260

2002

Apr-02

3178275

2002

3181135

2002

5 May-02

3177896

2002

3180497

2002

Jun-02

3180558

2002

3183760

2002

Jul-02

3181251

2002

3187690

2002

Aug-02

3183479

2002

3188532

2002

Sep-02

3186602

2002

3188654

2002

10

Oct-02

3188417

2002

3185135

2002

11

Nov-02

3189368

2002

3189708

2002

12

Dec-02

3187900

2003

3193880

2003

Jan-03

3189749

2003

3191497

2003

Feb-03

3192741

2003

3196888

2003

Mar-03

3192676

2003

3193135

2003

Apr-03

3195819

Page 9 of 36

2003

3193366

2003

5 May-03

3194987

2003

3199897

2003

Jun-03

3194956

2003

3195808

2003

Jul-03

3198579

2003

3195497

2003

Aug-03

3197729

2003

3198906

2003

Sep-03

3197409

2003

3197875

2003

10

Oct-03

3199181

2003

3199497

2003

11

Nov-03

3199299

2003
2004

3201135
3190357

2003
2004

12
1

Dec-03
Jan-04

3200346
3201501

2004

3199876

2004

Feb-04

3196005

2004

3199535

2004

Mar-04

3199238

2004

3200780

2004

Apr-04

3200080

2004

3202551

2004

5 May-04

3201240

2004

3203876

2004

Jun-04

3202751

2004

3206686

2004

Jul-04

3204156

2004

3206950

2004

Aug-04

3206364

2004

3205551

2004

Sep-04

3207465

2004

3205880

2004

10

Oct-04

3207245

2004

3205135

2004

11

Nov-04

3207424

2004

3204632

2004

12

Dec-04

3207093

2005

3203865

2005

Jan-05

3206511

2005

3200880

2005

Feb-05

3205849

2005

3204689

2005

Mar-05

3203916

2005

3204889

2005

Apr-05

3205266

2005

3206807

2005

5 May-05

3205828

2005

3208557

2005

Jun-05

3207185

2005

3208805

2005

Jul-05

3208740

2005

3207935

2005

Aug-05

3209569

2005

3210651

2005

Sep-05

3209505

2005

3212975

2005

10

Oct-05

3211059

2005

3209555

2005

11

Nov-05

3212980

2006

3209664

2005

12

Dec-05

3211915

2006

3211888

2006

Jan-06

3211476

2006

3211552

2006

Feb-06

3212513

2006

3214880

2006

Mar-06

3212722

2006

3213897

2006

Apr-06

3214720

2006

3215135

2006

5 May-06

3214985

2006

3215659

2006

3215890

Page 10 of 36

Jun-06

2006

3216680

2006

Jul-06

3216577

2006

3211550

2006

Aug-06

3217476

2006

3214897

2006

Sep-06

3215023

2006

3215686

2006

10

Oct-06

3215994

2006

3215875

2006

11

Nov-06

3216722

2006

3218551

2006

12

Dec-06

3217161

2007

3226812

2007

Jan-07

3218680

2007
2007

3226543
3226663

2007
2007

2
3

Feb-07
Mar-07

3223906
3225886

2007

3226098

2007

Apr-07

3226994

2007

3227076

2007

5 May-07

3227251

2007

3227387

2007

Jun-07

3227979

2007

3228965

2007

Jul-07

3228474

2007

3228987

2007

Aug-07

3229600

2007

3228675

2007

Sep-07

3230097

2007

3230543

2007

10

Oct-07

3230190

2007

3232654

2007

11

Nov-07

3231314

2007

3235645

2007

12

Dec-07

3232954

2008

3237980

2008

Jan-08

3235132

2008

3234790

2008

Feb-08

3237372

2008

3230765

2008

Mar-08

3236597

2008

3231843

2008

Apr-08

3234186

2008

3235675

2008

5 May-08

3233842

2008

3233489

2008

Jun-08

3235745

2008

3232743

2008

Jul-08

3235258

2008

3237611

2008

Aug-08

3234755

2008

3239543

2008

Sep-08

3237275

2008

3238563

2008

10

Oct-08

3239328

2008

3238097

2008

11

Nov-08

3239714

2008

3240231

2008

12

Dec-08

3239732

2009

3242563

2009

Jan-09

3240777

2009

3243795

2009

Feb-09

3242496

2009

3241897

2009

Mar-09

3243918

2009

3239780

2009

Apr-09

3243519

2009

3237679

2009

5 May-09

3242278

2009

3239670

2009

Jun-09

3240631

2009

3240080

2009

Jul-09

3241056

2009

3241780

2009

Aug-09

3241385

Page 11 of 36

2009

3240900

2009

Sep-09

3242487

2009

3243650

2009

10

Oct-09

3242461

2009

3243460

2009

11

Nov-09

3244054

2009

3244674

2009

12

Dec-09

3244592

2010

3238800

2010

Jan-10

3245372

2010

3237908

2010

Feb-10

3242445

2010

3241765

2010

Mar-10

3240862

2010
2010

3242670
3244000

2010
2010

4 Apr-10
5 May-10

3242279
3243265

2010

3246443

2010

Jun-10

3244464

2010

3235330

2010

Jul-10

3246362

2010

3240200

2010

Aug-10

3240992

2010

3242587

2010

Sep-10

3241721

2010

3243800

2010

10

Oct-10

3243116

2010

3240180

2010

11

Nov-10

3244359

2010

3244660

2010

12

Dec-10

3242911

2011

3245856

2011

Jan-11

3244725

2011

3248850

2011

Feb-11

3246047

2011

3254640

2011

Mar-11

3248324

2011

3252675

2011

Apr-11

3252526

2011

3256800

2011

5 May-11

3253204

2011

3251000

2011

Jun-11

3255992

2011

3257540

2011

Jul-11

3253923

2011

3259430

2011

Aug-11

3256912

2011

3258440

2011

Sep-11

3259069

2011

3261780

2011

10

Oct-11

3259506

2011

3264550

2011

11

Nov-11

3261670

2011

3266760

2011

12

Dec-11

3264110

2012

3263760

2012

Jan-12

3266216

2012

3268540

2012

Feb-12

3265500

2012

3265769

2012

Mar-12

3268012

2012

3270896

2012

Apr-12

3267446

2012

3269123

2012

5 May-12

3270213

2012

3266432

2012

Jun-12

3270310

2012

3274436

2012

Jul-12

3268994

2012

3272890

2012

Aug-12

3272975

2012

3277006

2012

Sep-12

3273627

2012

3278590

2012

10

Oct-12

3276370

Page 12 of 36

2012

3274360

2012

11

Nov-12

3278391

2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2103
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013

3280684

2012

12

Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13

3276975

Page 13 of 36

3279010
3297889
3304216
3303210
3315400
3315650
3304235
3314872
3315785
3318460
3320078
3320050

Autocorrelations
Series: Coke
Lag

Autocorrelation

Std. Error

Box-Ljung Statistic
Value

df

Sig.

.968

.082

137.664

.000

.941

.082

268.805

.000

.912

.082

392.945

.000

.883

.082

510.124

.000

.858

.081

621.381

.000

.829

.081

726.091

.000

.805

.081

825.487

.000

.780

.080

919.483

.000

.753

.080

1007.873

.000

10

.728

.080

1090.973

10

.000

11

.701

.080

1168.586

11

.000

12

.674

.079

1241.033

12

.000

13

.649

.079

1308.614

13

.000

14

.625

.079

1371.870

14

.000

15

.601

.078

1430.809

15

.000

16

.579

.078

1485.817

16

.000

a. The underlying process assumed is independence (white noise).

b. Based on the asymptotic chi-square approximation.

Page 14 of 36

Partial Autocorrelations
Series: Coke
Lag

Partial Autocorrelation

Std. Error

.968

.083

.075

.083

-.040

.083

-.027

.083

.038

.083

-.051

.083

.044

.083

-.014

.083

-.038

.083

10

-.010

.083

11

-.028

.083

12

-.012

.083

13

.001

.083

14

.020

.083

15

-.024

.083

16

.007

.083

Page 15 of 36

Model Description
Model Type
Model ID

Coke

Model_1

ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,0,0)

Model Summary

Fit Statistic
Stationary R-squared
R-squared

Coke-Model_1
0.166
0.991

RMSE

2873.385

MAPE

0.0625

MAE
MaxAPE
MaxAE

2102.934
0.349
11143.73

Normalized BIC

16.065

Statistics

13.068

DF
Sig.

Page 16 of 36

16
0.668

Page 17 of 36

3.1.2 Fanta

Year

Variable
(Fanta)

YEAR_

MONTH_ DATE_

Pred._Fanta Forecast

2001 3163135

2001

Jan-01

2001 3163420

2001

Feb-01

3163918

2001 3163576

2001

Mar-01

3164323

2001 3164345

2001

Apr-01

3164599

2001 3164490

2001

May-01

3165249

2001 3165686

2001

Jun-01

3165516

2001 3167467

2001

Jul-01

3166443

2001 3165476

2001

Aug-01

3167872

2001 3168139

2001

Sep-01

3166871

2001 3168432

2001

10

Oct-01

3168624

2001 3169453

2001

11

Nov-01

3169131

2001 3169420

2001

12

Dec-01

3170039

2002 3171131

2002

Jan-02

3170382

2002 3174776

2002

Feb-02

3171720

2002 3172709

2002

Mar-02

3174521

2002 3173766

2002

Apr-02

3173773

2002 3173135

2002

May-02

3174604

2002 3172708

2002

Jun-02

3174372

2002 3175765

2002

Jul-02

3174108

2002 3175740

2002

Aug-02

3176141

2002 3178135

2002

Sep-02

3176490

2002 3179735

2002

10

Oct-02

3178326

2002 3179689

2002

11

Nov-02

3179843

2002 3185761

2002

12

Dec-02

3180267

2003 3185576

2003

Jan-03

3184768

2003 3187880

2003

Feb-03

3185618

2003 3189135

2003

Mar-03

3187730

2003 3189808

2003

Apr-03

3189200

2003 3191646

2003

May-03

3190179

2003 3190874

2003

Jun-03

3191819

2003 3193821

2003

Jul-03

3191756

2003 3193576

2003

Aug-03

3193927

2003 3192850

2003

Sep-03

3194237

2003 3195545

2003

10

Oct-03

3193985

Page 18 of 36

2003 3194556

2003

11

Nov-03

3195860

2003 3196880

2003

12

Dec-03

3195557

2004 3196881

2004

Jan-04

3197334

2004 3194616

2004

Feb-04

3197717

2004 3195821

2004

Mar-04

3196394

2004 3196477

2004

Apr-04

3197039

2004 3198880

2004

May-04

3197534

2004 3199135

2004

Jun-04

3199277

2004 3199497

2004

Jul-04

3199821

2004 3198800

2004

Aug-04

3200313

2004 3196616

2004

Sep-04

3200024

2004 3197397

2004

10

Oct-04

3198549

2004 3199820

2004

11

Nov-04

3198794

2004 3202487

2004

12

Dec-04

3200370

2005 3204803

2005

Jan-05

3202565

2005 3201835

2005

Feb-05

3204678

2005 3200580

2005

Mar-05

3203271

2005 3200386

2005

Apr-05

3202382

2005 3201277

2005

May-05

3202059

2005 3202770

2005

Jun-05

3202520

2005 3202697

2005

Jul-05

3203560

2005 3201806

2005

Aug-05

3203713

2005 3205675

2005

Sep-05

3203210

2005 3204635

2005

10

Oct-05

3205781

2005 3205785

2005

11

Nov-05

3205536

2006 3205907

2005

12

Dec-05

3206449

2006 3206750

2006

Jan-06

3206865

2006 3207900

2006

Feb-06

3207614

2006 3207455

2006

Mar-06

3208604

2006 3206487

2006

Apr-06

3208567

2006 3203760

2006

May-06

3208000

2006 3205880

2006

Jun-06

3206064

2006 3208437

2006

Jul-06

3207096

2006 3209110

2006

Aug-06

3208864

2006 3209155

2006

Sep-06

3209667

2006 3210227

2006

10

Oct-06

3209983

2006 3210650

2006

11

Nov-06

3210879

2006 3211875

2006

12

Dec-06

3211399

Page 19 of 36

2007 3216786

2007

Jan-07

3212531

2007 3216453

2007

Feb-07

3216173

2007 3216509

2007

Mar-07

3216759

2007 3217378

2007

Apr-07

3217226

2007 3219780

2007

May-07

3218071

2007 3219600

2007

Jun-07

3219962

2007 3218480

2007

Jul-07

3220299

2007 3217670

2007

Aug-07

3219777

2007 3218650

2007

Sep-07

3219214

2007 3219400

2007

10

Oct-07

3219761

2007 3218450

2007

11

Nov-07

3220322

2007 3219440

2007

12

Dec-07

3219797

2008 3219352

2008

Jan-08

3220524

2008 3221350

2008

Feb-08

3220588

2008 3222210

2008

Mar-08

3222002

2008 3220900

2008

Apr-08

3222875

2008 3223780

2008

May-08

3222258

2008 3219564

2008

Jun-08

3224202

2008 3222807

2008

Jul-08

3221694

2008 3222576

2008

Aug-08

3223554

2008 3221786

2008

Sep-08

3223611

2008 3220090

2008

10

Oct-08

3223162

2008 3220800

2008

11

Nov-08

3221950

2008 3219670

2008

12

Dec-08

3222170

2009 3218560

2009

Jan-09

3221445

2009 3220543

2009

Feb-09

3220530

2009 3222890

2009

Mar-09

3221633

2009 3232000

2009

Apr-09

3223338

2009 3230760

2009

May-09

3229902

2009 3231098

2009

Jun-09

3230459

2009 3223000

2009

Jul-09

3231347

2009 3229432

2009

Aug-09

3226261

2009 3228450

2009

Sep-09

3229821

2009 3234540

2009

10

Oct-09

3229506

2009 3235567

2009

11

Nov-09

3233724

2009 3231890

2009

12

Dec-09

3235257

2010 3230700

2010

Jan-10

3233488

2010 3232450

2010

Feb-10

3232591

Page 20 of 36

2010 3240060

2010

Mar-10

3233568

2010 3236890

2010

Apr-10

3238843

2010 3239098

2010

May-10

3237733

2010 3237607

2010

Jun-10

3239431

2010 3238555

2010

Jul-10

3238813

2010 3241606

2010

Aug-10

3239491

2010 3243060

2010

Sep-10

3241704

2010 3247380

2010

10

Oct-10

3243166

2010 3248600

2010

11

Nov-10

3246569

2010 3253437

2010

12

Dec-10

3248232

2011 3251700

2011

Jan-11

3252281

2011 3260807

2011

Feb-11

3252141

2011 3263808

2011

Mar-11

3258720

2011 3257354

2011

Apr-11

3262173

2011 3261200

2011

May-11

3258999

2011 3259860

2011

Jun-11

3261482

2011 3254909

2011

Jul-11

3260989

2011 3266010

2011

Aug-11

3257683

2011 3264110

2011

Sep-11

3264621

2011 3268065

2011

10

Oct-11

3264411

2011 3255650

2011

11

Nov-11

3267485

2011 3256120

2011

12

Dec-11

3259774

2012 3260165

2012

Jan-12

3259008

2012 3257760

2012

Feb-12

3261145

2012 3259450

2012

Mar-12

3259668

2012 3258895

2012

Apr-12

3260590

2012 3264125

2012

May-12

3260292

2012 3264560

2012

Jun-12

3263819

2012 3263340

2012

Jul-12

3264775

2012 3260320

2012

Aug-12

3264383

2012 3262111

2012

Sep-12

3262420

2012 3266560

2012

10

Oct-12

3263291

2012 3269808

2012

11

Nov-12

3266341

2012 3268900
2013
2013
2013
2013
2103

2012

12

Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13

3269141

Page 21 of 36

3269104
3278807
3269750
3270033
3269998

2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013

Page 22 of 36

Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13

3272430
3273350
3273664
3269880
3271876
3273452
3276380

Autocorrelations
Series: Fanta
Lag

Autocorrelation

Std. Error

Box-Ljung Statistic
Value

df

Sig.

.972

.082

138.953

.000

.946

.082

271.479

.000

.921

.082

397.835

.000

.898

.082

519.063

.000

.877

.081

635.509

.000

.853

.081

746.289

.000

.828

.081

851.587

.000

.801

.080

950.808

.000

.778

.080

1045.094

.000

10

.755

.080

1134.426

10

.000

11

.732

.080

1219.034

11

.000

12

.707

.079

1298.700

12

.000

13

.685

.079

1373.977

13

.000

14

.663

.079

1445.161

14

.000

15

.636

.078

1511.041

15

.000

16

.609

.078

1571.916

16

.000

a. The underlying process assumed is independence (white noise).

b. Based on the asymptotic chi-square approximation.

Page 23 of 36

Partial Autocorrelations
Series: Fanta
Lag

Partial Autocorrelation

Std. Error

.972

.083

.018

.083

-.003

.083

.051

.083

.011

.083

-.075

.083

-.007

.083

-.063

.083

.051

.083

10

-.021

.083

11

-.004

.083

12

-.033

.083

13

.030

.083

14

-.003

.083

15

-.125

.083

16

-.015

.083

Page 24 of 36

Model Description
Model Type
Model ID

Fanta

Model_1

ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,0,0)

Model Summary

Fit Statistic

Fanta-Model_1

Stationary R-squared

0.101

R-squared

0.991

RMSE
MAPE
MAE
MaxAPE
MaxAE

2776.094
0.059
1896.053
0.367
11956,841

Normalized BIC

15.998

Statistics

19.826

DF
Sig.

Page 25 of 36

16
0.228

Page 26 of 36

3.1.3

Sprite

Year
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003

Variable
(Sprite) YEAR_
MONTH_ DATE_
Pred._Sprite Forecast
3162489
2001
1
Jan-01
3162463
2001
2
Feb-01
3163226
3164414
2001
3 Mar-01
3163565
3164935
2001
4
Apr-01
3164642
3164520
2001
5 May-01
3165507
3165429
2001
6
Jun-01
3165940
3165609
2001
7
Jul-01
3166521
3165486
2001
8 Aug-01
3166988
3165135
2001
9
Sep-01
3167268
3167420
2001
10
Oct-01
3167344
3168690
2001
11 Nov-01
3168118
3168410
2001
12 Dec-01
3169086
3170135
2002
1
Jan-02
3169612
3171760
2002
2
Feb-02
3170505
3170135
2002
3 Mar-02
3171652
3172755
2002
4
Apr-02
3171935
3173776
2002
5 May-02
3172925
3173656
2002
6
Jun-02
3173963
3174760
2002
7
Jul-02
3174639
3174497
2002
8 Aug-02
3175438
3175135
2002
9
Sep-02
3175912
3175709
2002
10
Oct-02
3176427
3176768
2002
11 Nov-02
3176969
3176737
2002
12 Dec-02
3177680
3179880
2003
1
Jan-03
3178110
3179135
2003
2
Feb-03
3179395
3182686
2003
3 Mar-03
3180080
3184576
2003
4
Apr-03
3181649
3184875
2003
5 May-03
3183366
3188497
2003
6
Jun-03
3184642
3189840
2003
7
Jul-03
3186646
3187135
2003
8 Aug-03
3188480
3186860
2003
9
Sep-03
3188869
3189990
2003
10
Oct-03
3188987
3190764
2003
11 Nov-03
3190057
3190550
2003
12 Dec-03
3191081

Page 27 of 36

2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007

3193135
3193880
3194865
3193357
3195684
3195353
3198831
3196811
3197445
3199180
3197657
3195886
3199980
3198557
3197878
3199876
3201229
3202865
3205357
3205686
3209880
3206812
3203357
3204540
3209660
3205535
3206780
3207980
3204586
3204457
3206340
3206520
3209125
3210230
3210447
3212886
3216467
3216456
3216476
3216990
3216500

Page 28 of 36

2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5

Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07

3191655
3192853
3193942
3194995
3195240
3196113
3196640
3198090
3198486
3198912
3199763
3199884
3199318
3200208
3200437
3200348
3200913
3201763
3202878
3204446
3205645
3207781
3208314
3207512
3207230
3208697
3208471
3208635
3209155
3208453
3207881
3208102
3208350
3209349
3210420
3211226
3212485
3214509
3215925
3216873
3217669

2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010

3216443
3216760
3216550
3216640
3218490
3218644
3217456
3218432
3218670
3219750
3219550
3220320
3221564
3220555
3222342
3224890
3223780
3226890
3225765
3224654
3228650
3228908
3227098
3229780
3226564
3229556
3234654
3233680
3231675
3229908
3232009
3230350
3243800
3231760
3236000
3233900
3229605
3240125
3233590
3239760
3241805

Page 29 of 36

2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010

6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10

3218056
3218288
3218546
3218662
3218768
3219432
3219963
3219889
3220128
3220387
3220911
3221222
3221673
3222387
3222570
3223242
3224537
3225101
3226442
3226985
3226972
3228213
3229205
3229297
3230176
3229799
3230436
3232542
3233739
3233879
3233375
3233617
3233299
3237325
3236458
3236981
3236755
3235204
3237429
3237055
3238632

2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2103
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013

3246660
3241880
3244990
3252760
3250800
3249870
3256230
3259850
3249350
3255665
3259065
3266550
3263530
3254238
3269786
3255564
3256768
3267653
3264115
3267005
3256740
3256553
3269120
3270440
3270559
3272880

Page 30 of 36

2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012

11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13

3240458
3243255
3243639
3244783
3248075
3249800
3250610
3253149
3256116
3254830
3255766
3257602
3261267
3262898
3260913
3264339
3262427
3261250
3263954
3264855
3266298
3264063
3262314
3265143
3267703
3269468
3267386
3269665
3267989
3265996
3267035
3269123
3270541
3268790
3266985
3269554
3270088
3274320

Autocorrelations
Series: Sprite
Lag

Autocorrelation

Std. Error

Box-Ljung Statistic
Value

df

Sig.

.967

.082

137.351

.000

.941

.082

268.559

.000

.918

.082

394.243

.000

.892

.082

513.786

.000

.875

.081

629.487

.000

.853

.081

740.321

.000

.829

.081

845.849

.000

.804

.080

945.794

.000

.775

.080

1039.363

.000

10

.754

.080

1128.445

10

.000

11

.736

.080

1213.974

11

.000

12

.707

.079

1293.618

12

.000

13

.685

.079

1368.989

13

.000

14

.661

.079

1439.543

14

.000

15

.633

.078

1504.822

15

.000

16

.609

.078

1565.772

16

.000

a. The underlying process assumed is independence (white noise).

b. Based on the asymptotic chi-square approximation.

Page 31 of 36

Partial Autocorrelations
Series: Sprite
Lag

Partial Autocorrelation

Std. Error

.967

.083

.109

.083

.031

.083

-.043

.083

.107

.083

-.045

.083

-.045

.083

-.055

.083

-.066

.083

10

.074

.083

11

.063

.083

12

-.156

.083

13

.044

.083

14

-.024

.083

15

-.045

.083

16

-.010

.083

Page 32 of 36

Model Description
Model Type
Model ID

Sprite

Model_1

ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,0,0)

Model Summary

Fit Statistic

Sprite-Model_1

Stationary R-squared

0.319

R-squared

0.988

RMSE

3310.33

MAPE

0.072

MAE
MaxAPE
MaxAE

2334.801
0.324
10500.563

Normalized BIC

16.348

Statistics

33.546

DF
Sig.

Page 33 of 36

16
0.006

Page 34 of 36

3.2

Friedman Test

Descriptive Statistics
N

Mean

Std.

Minimum

Maximum

Deviation

Percentiles
25th

50th (Median)

75th

Coke

144

3220605.7431

29963.40051

3163367

3280684

3199620.25

3222324.5

3241867.75

Fanta

144

3214567.6806

29374.61634

3163135

3269808

3195614.0

3214164.0

3234017.5

Sprite

144

3213202.0139

29729.55225

3162463

3272880

3191356.75

3214664.5

3231946.75

Ranks
Mean Rank
Coke

2.76

Fanta

1.86

Sprite

1.38

Test Statistics
N
Chi-Square
df
Asymp. Sig.

144
140.292
2
.000

a. Friedman Test

With an asymptotic significant value = .000 < .05the null hypothesis it reject for
the alternate that the sales performance of the products is not equal. This is fatherly
shown by the mean rank indicating that coke and sprite has the highest and least
sales respectively with a mean rank range of 1.38

Page 35 of 36

CHAPTER FOUR
4.0

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECCOMMENDATION

Nigeria Bottling Company (NBC) has been a major player in the production of soft
drinks in Nigeria. The study focuses on the sales performance of her major
products (Coke, Fanta and Sprite). In studying these variables, a raw data showing
the sales rates of these products were collected from 2001 2012.
The analysis was run using SPSS v21.0 with the aim modeling the sales of these
products over the years and making forecast (2013).
CONCLUSION

Analysis showed that although with slight drops, there was a continuous increase
in the sales of the products during the years in question. The model ARIMA (1,1,1)
was developed for althrough for predicting the trend and forecasting subsequent
years. The prediction almost followed the actual sales while the forecast showed
there will be a increase in the sales of the product in 2013.
Further test showed that the sales performances are not equal as the product coke
led the way.
RECOMMENDATION

The rise shown in the forecast is not convincing and as such, the branch of NBC
considered should improve in the stability of the sales of her product. Also, advert
placement for both fanta and sprite should be considered to foster a health
competition between the products.

Page 36 of 36