How To Make Money in Stocks - Summary
How To Make Money in Stocks - Summary
How To Make Money in Stocks - Summary
nd
edition
Individual investors
Institutional Investors
Can only buy companies with large supply of stocks, which usually under perform
Are limited to a narrow set of stocks because of their stated strategy
Can not move in and out of a stock quickly because of the size of their trades
Buy only stocks of companies with superb growth, whose stocks are performing superbly.
Buy and sell at the right time based on proven patterns
CAN-SLIM Method
C Current Quarterly Earnings The higher, the better
A Annual Earnings Increases Significant Growth
N New products, new management, new highs
S Supply and Demand Volume drives demand
L Leader or Laggard
I Institutional Sponsorship Follow the leaders
M Market Direction
Research has shown that super performing stocks had substantial earnings in the quarter or two before
a major price advance. 3 out of 4 best stocks over 40 years had earnings increase > 70% in the latest
quarter compared to the same quarter the year before. The one in four that didnt, did so in the very
next quarter.
EPS increase in the latest quarter should be at least 25%
EPS increase in the latest quarters should show accelerating growth
Next quarter EPS estimates
o At least 15%
o Increase should be more than latest quarter
Sales growth should be acceleration and in-sync with EPS increase
Signs of financial trouble:
o Large sales increase but low EPS increase might mean company:
Issued shares (diluted)
Took large charge
o One-time earnings
o Cost reduction measures
Page 1 of 17
Annual EPS ideally should have increased every year for the past 3 years
Latest annual EPS increase of at least 25%
Next annual EPS increase estimate at least 15%
IBDs EPS rating measures EPS growth against all other stocks
o It factors the last 2 quarters and the last 3 years
o Historically, the best performing stocks had EPS rating > 80
ROE at least 17%
Annual cash flow per share = 25% > actual EPS
IBDs EPS stability < 25
Supply and demand move the market, more important than any analyst opinion.
Shares float = Total shares outstanding shares closely held.
Management should own > 2% of shares
Look for companies buying their own stock back, EPS will grow.
Low debt-to-equity ratio
L=Leader or Laggard
Institutions account for more than 70% of the activity in most leading stocks. They are the sustained
force behind most important price moves.
Too much sponsorship can cause a massive sell-off when a stock tops
IBDs SPON Rating measures institutional sponsorship. It ranges from A (best) to E.
Look at quantity and quality of sponsorship
o At least 10 institutional owners
o Number of institutional owners should be increasing
Page 2 of 17
M=Market Direction
Market Cycles and influence in stocks
Bull markets
o Usually last 2-4 years
o Are followed by a recession or a bear market
Bear markets
o Usually 3-6 months
o 2+years are rare
No matter how good a stock is, 3 out of 4 stocks will plummet with the market
Order of market recovery after a bear market:
1. growth stocks lead (new price highs)
2. turnarounds
3. basic industry groups and cyclical steel, chemical, paper, machinery are last
4. when capital goods, machinery, railroad move up, the bull market is about to end
Bulls and Bears
In bull markets, stocks usually open weak and close strong.
In bear markets, stocks usually open strong and close weak
Bull/bear markets usually end while business is still in an up/down trend. The reason is that stocks
valuations anticipate future events. Use of economic indicators or even stocks fundamental indicators is
useless because they lag.
Bull and Bear markets dont end easily.
o Usually it takes 2 or 3 pullbacks to fake out or shake out the few remaining speculators
o After everyone who can be run in/out has thrown in the towel, there isnt anyone left to continue
in the same direction.
o Only then the market finally turns and begins a whole new trend.
Spotting a Market Top
Market is in a very strong uptrend
Market goes up but volume decreases from the previous day
Market goes down and volume increases from the previous day (distribution)
Three distribution days in a week or 5 distribution days in 2-4 weeks is a clearly signal to:
o Stop buying new stocks
o Sell portion of some positions
Market breaks 50-day MA on the way down:
o Sell all positions
Spotting a Market Bottom
Market is in a downtrend
Closes higher on volume higher than the day before (or volume above average). This is the first
accumulation day of a possible rally.
Market follows-through on the 4-10th day: goes up 1% or more on volume higher than the day before
and possibly higher than average
Page 3 of 17
the highest price and the small horizontal line is the closing price. The charts also show the 200-day and the 50day moving averages.
Page 4 of 17
Volume
Volume is the best measure of supply/demand and institutional sponsorship. Big volumes move stocks.
Timing
Only buy stocks that:
o Have the highest RPS and EPS ratings
o Are performing better than the general market
o Are beginning to emerge from sound base-building periods
o Break resistance lines
Time to sell:
o Advances rapidly
o Too extended from the base
o Showing extremely high RPS
Resistance
Is an upper price boundary that stocks have difficulty breaking
Exists because institutional investors who made prior purchases at resistance level prices sell to break
even when the price approaches their buy point
Overhead supply
o Supply of stocks bought around resistance price
o Can be sold when price approaches resistance level
Better to buy after price breaks resistance level (breakout)
o Proves that there is sufficient demand to absorb overhead supply sales
Support
Opposite of resistance
Institutional buying
Chart Patterns
Definition: Price correction is a price drop of at least 10%. A healthy market will correct from time to time.
Definition: Price consolidation is the movement of a stock price within a well-defined range (upper and lower
boundaries.
Chart patterns, also called bases, are areas of price correction and consolidation after an earlier price advance.
The price uptrend prior to the base should be clear and definite and have appreciated at least 30%. Many
stocks will surge after breaking out of the base.
Reasons for corrections
General market decline
Sector out of favor
Company conditions changes (bad news, miss expectations, contamination, etc...)
Classification of bases according to percentage correction
1. Flat
- 10-15%
2. Base-on-base - 16-29%
3. New Base
- 30% or more
Classification of bases according to timeline
1. Bottoming base
o Base at the bottom of a bear market
o Best buy points come on breakouts off bottoming bases
2. Stage Base
o Each base after a bottoming base or a new base or after a 20% run-up from the prior base
(investors corner)
Page 5 of 17
Occurrence
o
Most common and reliable after a bear market
o
Very common during general market declines
Duration:
o
Last 7-65 weeks(2 to 15 months)
o
Most last 12-27 weeks(3-6 months)
Shape
o
Best if in a U-shape, as opposed to a V-shape
Shakes out weak holders
Build a more solid foundation of strong holders who are less apt to sell during next
advance
o
Symetrical similar number of weeks on left and right side
Important Points:
o
A=Absolute peak (start of the cup on the left leg)
o
B=absolute bottom
o
C=top of the right leg (highest intraday price on the day price reaches the top)
o
D=Bottom of the handle
Bottom
o
Volume dries up noticeably near the low for 2+ weeks( shakeout)
o
Bullish sign if price tightens up
o
Absolute bottom=point B
Right Side
o
Volume
Page 6 of 17
Usually spikes
Stays above average
Handle
Last dose of selling pressure; prepares for breakout
Downward price drift (shakeout of weak holders)
Top of right leg before price drift=point C
C <= A and C > A 15%
2+ weeks
Volume dries up noticeably near the low
Prices:
Correct:
10-15% in a normal market
20-30% in a bear market bottom
Stay in the upper half of the overall cup
Stay above 200-day MA
Tighten up at least some days or weeks
o
Bottom of the handle=point D
No more selling
Pivot price = Point C
Breakout (can be used as screen rules):
o
Rally from the bottom of the handle
o
Surges through the pivot line
o
Makes new price high
o
Volume increases at least 50%
o
Tends to move up 20%+
Buy Point
o
Point on the handle where it breaks through the pivot line + 0.10
o
Price no more than 5% over pivot point
o
Can buy at the point, inside the handle and prior to the breakout, where the stock breaks the
upper channel line, but it is risky.
o
Can buy at the point, inside the handle and prior to the breakout, where chart shows 3 tight
weeks, but it is risky.
Cup without handle
o
Can succeed but failure rate is higher
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Bullish Signs:
o
Cup is U-shape as opposed to V-shape
o
# of up weeks on above average volume > # of down weeks on above average volume
o
The handle forms within 5-15% of the top of the left leg
o
Volume decreases on the left side of the cup or left side of the handle, forming a downward
slope
o
Volume increases on the right side of the cup or left side of the handle, forming an upward
slope
o
Breaks the 200-day MA on the way down (left side) and on the way up (right side)
o
There is a shakeout at the bottom of the cup or handle (price decrease with high volume)
o
Price tightens up close to the bottom of cup
o
Volume subsidies close to the bottom of the cup
o
There is evidence of support at the bottom of the cup or the handle:
Churning day or week. Churning happens when price does not decrease much
although volume is above average
Price closes in the top half of the bar
o
Volume on the breakout week is higher than the week before
o
Price does not change much for 3 weeks or more (3-week tight pattern)
o
Price tightens up (for some days or weeks) just before the top (point C)
o
Up weeks on above average volume followed by weeks of very low volume
Saucer Pattern
Page 7 of 17
Similar to cup but tends to stretch out over a long period of time
Pattern more shallow
Symetrical similar number of weeks on left and right side
Double-Bottom Pattern
Similar to cup but looks like a W
Not as common as cup-with-handle
Handles are not as essential because shakeout happens in the second bottom area
Symetrical similar number of weeks on left and right side
A = top left leg
B = first bottom
C = top of middle of W
D = second bottom
C should be less than A and greater than (A-B)/2 (top half of the left leg)
Bullish if D < B
D should be no more than 2% below B
Pivot point
o If it has a handle then it is the peak price of the handle, otherwise it is the top of the middle of
the W.
Buy Point
o Point where it breaks the pivot line + 0.10
o Breakout needs to have high volume
o Shakeout + 3
Alternative buy point to the traditional pivot point
Buy point is B+$3 (for $20-$30 stocks, or percentage for others)
Requires D < B
Requires high volume on the breakout
Triple-Bottom Pattern
Similar to double bottom
Weaker and less attractive than double bottom because falls back sharply to new lows 3 times
Flat-Base Pattern
Second-stage base after a stock has advanced 20%+ of a cup, saucer or double-bottom
Correction
o Price drifts down in a fairly tight range
o At least 5-6 weeks
o 10-15%
Second opportunity to buy
Pivot point is the highest point at the beginning of the base before the correction
Buy point is the point where it breaks the pivot line
Flag Pattern
Rare
Similar to a flat-base
Stock advances 100%+ in 4-8 weeks
Correction:
o Price drifts down in a fairly tight range
o 4-5 weeks
o 10-20%
Pivot point is the highest point at the beginning of the base before the correction
Buy point is the point where it breaks the pivot line
Ascending Bases Pattern
Page 8 of 17
Wild duration
o
Take too long to form (too wide)
Wild swings
o
Too deep
Correct > 2.5 times the average
Correct 40-50% in a bull market -> much more difficult to make new highs
o
Price range too wide
o
Come straight off the bottom to make new highs
Shape
o
Assymetric
o
V-shape
o
Corrects more than 35%
Handle
o
Too wide
o
Too deep
In the lower half of left leg
Below 200-day MA
o
Price range too wide
o
Drifts upward -> no shakeout (high risk)
o
Price does not tighten up
Breakout
o
With low volume
o
Price drops below pivot point
Page 9 of 17
Page 10 of 17
Page 11 of 17
Page 12 of 17
Sometimes happen just after a breakout of a cup or saucer pattern. In this case the cup/saucer
base is the left shoulder and the top of the breakout is the head.
Page 13 of 17
Page 14 of 17
Uptrend Market
Lots of heavy accumulation days
One or two heavy accumulation days are followed by a couple of light distribution days
Growth industries (medical, retail, technology) lead market
Defensive industries (utilities, oil&gas, metals) do poorly
Rallies on any good news
Recovers quickly from any bad news
A lot of times opens low but closes high (improves during the day)
Downtrend Market
Lots of heavy distribution days
One or two heavy distribution days are followed by a couple of light accumulation days
Churning day
Growth industries (medical, retail, technology) are taking a beating
Defensive industries (utilities, oil&gas, metals) are up
Declines significantly on bad news
Does not rally much, if at all, on good news
A lot of times opens high but closes low (deteriorates during the day)
How to Determine a Market Bottom
100-day MA points down
Downtrend loses steam (sellers shakeout):
o Goes down on volume lower than the day before
o Churning day(s)
Downtrend Reverses
o First day of accumulation: closes higher on volume higher than the day before (or volume
above average)
o Follow-through on the 4-10th day: market rallies > 1% on volume higher than the day before and
possibly higher than average
Uptrend
o MA starts to flatten
o Declines, if any, are gentle and barely break the MA
o MA line is totally horizontal, no inclination at all.
o Breaks the 100-day MA on the way up
o MA starts pointing up
How to Determine a Market Top
Uptrend loses steam (buyers shakeout)
o Goes up but volume is lower than the day before
o Churning day(s)
Uptrend reverses:
o 2-3 distributions in 5 days or 5 distributions (or churnings) in 2-4 weeks(10-20 days)
Summarized sequence of technical events on the NASDAQ (1999-2003)
Bull market picks up steam
Bull market loses steam and reaches top
Bull to bear transition:
o 2 or 3 declines and rallies that fail to move back to the top and barely break the 100-day MA
Bear market:
o Several declines (3 in the 2000-2001); rallies fail to break the 100-day MA
o Several more declines/rallies but not as sharp as before (bear losing steam). May break 100day MA.
o Reaches absolute bottom
Bear to bull transition:
Page 15 of 17
Page 17 of 17