Marketinsightshcmc q3 2014 en
Marketinsightshcmc q3 2014 en
Marketinsightshcmc q3 2014 en
Q2 2014
Q3 2013
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
6.2%
5.3%
5.0%
4.6%
5.0%
6.7%
21,246
21,246
20,036
38.8
37.6
32.4
40.7
37.3
34.3
4,330
3,518
4,439
3,150
2,880
3,000
1.8
2.0
1.7
706,500
737,600
639,251
u
u
u
u
v
v
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
GDP (% y-o-y)
CPI (% y-o-y, e-o-p)
Exchange rate (USD/VND, e-o-p)
Location
US$
million
Investors
Smart
Complex
Thu
Thiem,
HCMC
2,000
Lotte
(Korea)
Vincom
Central Park
HCMC
1,500
VinGroup
(Vietnam)
Amata City
Long Thanh
Long
Thanh
District
530
Amata
(Thailand)
Samsung
HCMC
1,000
Samsung
(Korea)
Ascendas
HCMC
130
Ascendas
(Singapore)
3
2
614
VNIndex:514
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Realty stocks
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2012
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2013
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2014 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Inde x
RE S erv i c e
HCM C N e w La unch
Inde x
41.20
45.60
44.30
47.20
44.80
45.00
45.20
43.60
45.60
40.52
39.50
37.80
41.76
41.90
46.20
42.21
45.39
42.19
41.30
41.49
41.20
43.37
44.85
45.66
49.17
53.23
58.70
53.50
52.44
51.16
55.10
55.89
53.32
HCM
48.9
54.4
64.4
100.0
96.7
72.2
56.7
54.4
44.4
37.8
25.6
26.7
22.4
24.4
27.8
31.1
26.6
24.3
23.8
21.1
19.8
22.0
32.2
42.0
38.5
52.4
60.0
48.3
49.5
48.6
63.3
61.1
54.0
0
0
648
0
404
0
417
799
330
528
155
207
132
0
277
0
165
895
301
885
1061
391
286
1451
312
0
410
574
714
775
916
356
1381
HN N ew La unc h
M onth
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
HN
920
356
262
616
353
1494
901
300
1514
2397
340
220
772
779
584
134
0
625
622
234
870
1538
470
363
419
200
1000
500
1000
50
928
464
500
INTEREST RATES
Lower Lending Rates
25%
Interest rate
20%
15%
13.1%*
10%
6.8%**
5%
0%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
2011
2012
2013
2014
Lending rate
(*) Current lending rate is the average lending rate surveyed at ten banks, applied for home loan only. However, the back-dated numbers are the
average rate which was announced publicly at that point of time, applied for all sectors and all banks . The average lending rate is for reference
only.
(**) Deposit rate is the average deposit rate of a sample of ten banks in which the rates are announced publicly on their websites and can be
tracked backwards.
Source: Smartfinance.
7
CREDIT GROWTH
Target for 2014
Reported Number in August 2014
INFRASTRUCTURE - HCMC
Progress of Metro Line No. 1
3
Sections in District 2
Opera House
2
1
10
2 Section of Metro Line #1 from Thai Van Lung Str. to Ton Duc Thang Str.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
HCMC Q3 2014
Tropic Garden A2
Saigonland Apartment
Binh Thanh, 144 units
by Hoan Cau
@ $1,1132 1,226/sm
Lucky Palace
Lexington Residence
Block D
Green Valley B
District 7, 108 units
by Phu My Hung
CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS
@ $1,420 - 1,610/sm
13
| Q3 2014
25,000
Unit
20,000
15,000
8,393 units
in 9 months
10,000
5,000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
YTD 2014
14
25% sold
25% sold
43% sold
High-end
1
Mid-end
Affordable
La Astoria - District 2
Condos + Townhouses
Developer: An Gia Hung
16
SG Waterfront D. 1
By Canh Hung Hai Thanh
Saigon Plaza D. 1
By Quoc Cuong Gia Lai
The One D. 1
By Bitexco
Lavenue Crown D. 1
By May Flower
Eximbank Tower D. 1
By EximLand
17
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10% 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-20%
-30%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
2011
2012
2013
-4%
-6%
Luxury
High-end
Mid-end
Affordable
2014
- Affordable: <US$800 psm
- Mid-end: US$800 1,500 psm
- High-end: US$1,500 - $3,000 psm
- Luxury: >US$3,000 psm
CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014
Second tier
First tier
Before 2012
300 sm
125 sm
110 sm
65 sm
After 2012 55 sm
90 sm
110 sm
250 sm
Before 2012 50 sm
91 sm
110 sm
250 sm
After 2012 48 sm 75 sm
150 sm
90 sm
1BR
2BR
3BR
4BR+
(*): First tier: Luxury and high-end products; Second tier: Mid-end and affordable products
Second tier
First tier
Before 2012 3%
After 2012
Before 2012
After 2012
35%
12%
45%
45%
7%
28%
59%
9%
2BR
27%
3BR
Proportion of 1BR
and 2BR types
increased
significantly
14%
27%
63%
1BR
16%
7%
1%
4BR+
(*): First tier: Luxury and high-end products; Second tier: Mid-end and affordable products
1%
1%
27%
37%
Luxury
24%
High-end
31%
Mid-end
48%
31%
Affordable
After 2010
Before 2010
(*): Accumulative launches since 1999, including both completion and under construction units, sold and unsold units.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.
21
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2012
Luxury
Q3
Q4
2013
High-end
Mid-end
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Affordable
Unit
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
0
2011
2012
Luxury
2013
High-end
Mid-end
YTD 2014
Affordable
23
8.0%
8.0%
7.8%
7.8%
7.6%
7.7%
7.5%
7.4%
7.4%
7.2%
7.0%
2012
2013
District 7
YTD
2014
Q2 2014
District 2
Docklands Saigon
District 7
365 units
Expected price: N/A
Developer: Paujar
TOPAZ CITY P1
District 8
273 units
Expected price: US$700 psm
Developer: Van Thai
Ehome 6
District 9
500 units
Expected price: N/A psm
Developer: Nam Long
SUNVIEW TOWN A3
Thu Duc
330 units
Expected price: ~US$620 psm
Developer: Dat Xanh Group
25
26
COMMERCIAL MARKETS
HCMC Q3 2014
OFFICE
Limited New Supply
AN PHU PLAZA
EMPRESS TOWER
TIMES SQUARE
350
300
250
200
PRESIDENT PLACE
150
SAIGON ARIPORT
PLAZA
PICO SAIGON
PLAZA
LIM TOWER
100
50
0
MB SUNNY TOWER
Grade A
Grade B
28
OFFICE
Rent Up, Vacancy Down
AVERAGE ASKING RENT
(US$/sm/month)
GRADE B
VACANCY RATE
(%)
GRADE A
Q3
Q3
2014 Q2
2014 Q2
Q1
Q1
Q4
Q4
2013
2012
2011
GRADE A
GRADE B
Q3
2013
Q2
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q1
Q4
Q4
Q3
2012
Q2
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q1
Q4
Q4
Q3
2011
Q2
Q1
Q3
Q2
Q1
$0 $0
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
29
OFFICE
APAC Rental Growth
Better than expected
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Brisbane
Mumbai
Hanoi
Melbourne
Hong Kong
Tokyo
Sydney
Beijing
Guangzhou
Shanghai
Bangkok
Auckland
Seoul
Taipei
Kuala Lumpur
New Delhi
Singapore
Manila
-10%
* 2014
Forecast Rental Growth,
30
OFFICE
Very Restricted New Supply -> Limited Leasing Options
Grade A & B Net Absorption, Q3 2014
50,000
NLA (sm)
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2011
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2012
Q3
Q4
2013
Grade A
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Grade B
31
OFFICE
Tenant Categories
By Industry, Q3 2014
By Nationality, Q3 2014
Manufacturing
29%
US
6%
19%
6%
Vietnam
7%
Hong Kong
Logistic
Technology/Electronic
7% 10%
Europe
29%
Education
Sourcing
6%
16%
23%
19%
Japan
23%
Others
Others
By Size
2013
23%
37%
30%
<100 sm
10%
100-300 sm
YTD 2014
17%
0%
10%
35%
20%
30%
40%
28%
50%
60%
32
70%
19%
80%
90%
300-1000 sm
100%
>1000 sm
OFFICE
Tenant Preferences
2%
District 1
41%
District 3
42%
2014
9%
17%
3%
15%
58%
18%
2012
Decentralisation trend to new,
good quality non-CBD
buildings
15%
5%
75%
Others
2013
Rents softening in centralised
areas => opportunities to
upgrade or relocate to core
CBD
The percentage is based on net absorption recorded in each district per year
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.
33
OFFICE
Future Supply
LIM TOWER 2
158 Vo Van Tan, D3
GFA: 20,467 sm
Estimated completion:
Q1/2015
34
SSG TOWER
561A Dien Bien Phu St, Ward 25,
Binh Thanh.
GFA: 37,434 sm
Estimated completion: Q3/2015
OFFICE
HCMC Future Supply
New Supply by Year, HCMC
GFA (sm)
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2012
2013
2014
2015f
Grade B
2016f
2017f
Grade A
OFFICE
Outlook for HCMC
Average rent remain stable till the end of the year.
The vacancy rate will fluctuate (slightly) but still on an overall downward
trend.
Steady demand for office spaces on the back of positive market condition.
Budget is still the matter.
Limited new supply will come from large scale, mixed use projects and from
those projects developed partly for owner- occupation.
36
RETAIL
Saigon Tax Trade Center to a Iconic Mixed-Use Development
Expect to open in 2018
40-storey skyscraper
Shopping centre:
5 floors + 1.5 basements
Officially closed in
September 25, 2014
37
RETAIL
New Openings
New Openings by Trade, Q3 2014
100%
* Opens a 1,200 sm
flagship store in Vincom
Center B in Sept 2014
% in terms of NLA, sm
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Q2 2014
Others
Kids
F&B
Q3 2014
Home dcor
Cosmetics
Fashion & Accessories
RETAIL
Rent and Occupancy Improved in CBD
AVERAGE ASKING RENT
(US$/sm/month)
NON-CBD
VACANCY RATE
(%)
CBD
Net absorption (NLA, sm)
Q3
2014 Q2
Q1
Q4
2013
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
2012
60,000
20%
40,000
14%
20,000
8%
2%
2012
Q3
Q2
2013
2014
(20,000)
-4%
Q1
110 90 70 50 30 30 50 70 90 110
RETAIL
Future Supply
Expect to Complete/ Open in 2014 - 2015
40
SC VivoCity
District 7
GFA: 72,000 sm
1 basement, 5 floors
Fitting out. Leasing.
RETAIL
Future Supply
Expect to Complete/ Open in 2014 - 2015
Lim Tower 2
District 3
GFA: 6,519 sm
5 floors
Underconstruction.
Lman CT Plaza
District 3
GFA: 12,000 sm
6 floors
Underconstruction.
Parkson
SSG Tower
Binh Thanh District
GFA: 20,500 sm
6 floors
Under-construction.
41
RETAIL
APAC Development Pipeline
Development Pipeline, Q2 2014
2015
1,800
2014
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
42
Wellington
Auckland
Taipei
Perth
Hong Kong
Adelaide
Mumbai
Brisbane
Jakarta
Melbourne
Manila
Singapore
Sydney
Shanghai
Guangzhou
Hanoi
Shenzhen
New Delhi
Kuala Lumpur
Beijing
Bangkok
200
Tokyo
2,000
RETAIL
Outlook for HCMC
F&B and supermarket are necessary elements in any modern shopping
center
Street front shops and boutiques still maintain their uniqueness and
attractiveness
Retail space in the CBD is in high demand in spite of high rents due to
big retailers preferences, particularly new entries.
Luxury shopping centers should create better tenant mix and offer more
professional services to serve sophisticated and discerning customers.
43
SERVICED APARTMENTS
Vacancy Rate/Asking Rent
Achieved Rent 2-3 bedrooms (US$/month)
$4,100
$2,600
Rents (US$/month)
Rents (US$/month)
$3,600
$2,200
$2,000
$3,100
$1,800
$1,600
$2,600
Grade B 2-3BR
Both grades stopped the downwards trend in pricing with minor improvement
(up 0.5% for Grade A and 0.3% for Grade B) due to better absorption.
Larger units tended to revise the rent down in order to retain tenants.
44
SERVICED APARTMENTS
Vacancy Rate/Asking Rent
Vacancy Rate (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2012
2013
2014
Long-term Average
45
SERVICED APARTMENTS
Occupiers Sentiments
CBRE Enquiries by Location
9M 2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0%
20%
District 1
District 7
40%
60%
District 2
Binh Thanh
46
80%
100%
District 3
Others
SERVICED APARTMENTS
Occupiers Sentiments
CBRE Enquiries by Housing Budget
Q3/2014
Q2/2014
Q1/2014
Q4/2013
Q3/2013
Q2/2013
Q1/2013
0%
20%
US$0 -$1000
US$4000 - $6000
40%
60%
US$1000 - $2000
US$6000+
80%
100%
US$2000 - $4000
47
48
SERVICED APARTMENTS
Buy to let trend
In order to attract more buyers, developers of newly
built building in Hanoi are also offering more
incentives, including being prepared to take on newlybought apartments and putting them out to lease.
Vietnam Investment Review
SERVICED APARTMENT
Outlook for HCMC
Average rent will remain flat
The vacancy rate will fluctuate slightly due to limited major new supply
49
KHU T D N
DEVELOPMENT SITE
Scale: 1.3 ha
*Refinancing transaction
50
CORNER STONE
THE ESTELLA
Location: HCMC
Location: Hanoi
Location: HCMC
Location: Vietnam
Seller: POSCO
Seller: VIB
Buyer: Daibiru
Amount: n/a
NBB GARDEN II
OCEAN MART
Location: HCMC
Location: HCMC
Location: HCMC
Location: Vietnam
Seller: NBB
Seller: NBB
Owner: NBB
Buyer: CREED
Buyer: CREED
Refinanciar: CREED
Buyer: Vingroup
Amount: n/a
INVESTMENT
Thai Groups Expand Business in Vietnam
Location: Vietnam
Seller: Metro Cash & Carry Vietnam
Buyer: Berli Jucker
Property type: Retail
Amount: $877 million
52
INVESTMENT
Vietnam keeps appealing to Korean investors
BUYERS
SELLERS
Taiwan
Singapore 2%
Domestic
Thailand
4%
Hong Kong
8%
Japan
Offshore
4%
Korea
Malaysia
Korea
13%
Netherlands
Domestic
63%
Japan
6%
Offshore
Singapore
(blank)
Taiwan
Netherlands
5%
Malaysia
3%
Offshore
8%
Korea
13%
Domestic
54%
Japan
2%
Hong Kong
15%
Thailand
Data recorded during the period of 2011- YTD 2014
Source: RCA, retrieved Sep 2014
53