System Reliability Center

201 Mill Street

Rome, NY 13440-6916
888.722.8737
or 315.337.0900
Fax: 315.337.9932

Worst Case Circuit Analysis (WCCA)

Worst case circuit analysis (WCCA) is a technique which, by accounting for component
variability, determines circuit performance under a worst case scenario, i.e., under extreme
environmental or operating conditions. Environmental conditions are defined as external
stresses applied to each circuit component, and can include temperature, humidity or
radiation. Operating conditions include external electrical inputs, but must also consider
factors such as component quality level, interaction between parts, and drift due to
component aging. The output of a WCCA allows an assessment of actual applied part
stresses against rated part parameters. This can help ensure sufficient part stress derating
to meet design requirements. WCCA should be considered for all circuitry that is safety
and/or financially critical.

Performance of a WCCA, and implementation of its results, can help identify design
problems and alternatives that can reduce financial, legal and safety risks to the
manufacturer, and help ensure satisfactory performance for the customer under virtually all
operating conditions. The advantages and disadvantages of the three major WCCA methods
are presented in Table 1. A capacitor example is shown in Table 2. The WCCA process is
outlined in Table 3.

One of the most critical steps involved in completing a meaningful WCCA is the development
of a part characteristic database. This database contains a composite of information
necessary for quantifying sources of component parameter variation. Once these sources
have been identified, the database can be used to calculate worst case component drift for
critical parameters. Quantifying the contribution of environmental effects on component
variability (as will be illustrated in an example) is also a critical step in the development of a
WCCA. A number of starting places can be used to establish random and biased
contributions to variability. They maybe summarized as:

• Company data (historical test data from other products, or special test programs)
• Vendor data (documentation of test conditions, sample size, number of lots, etc.,
is needed)
• Military specifications (tend to be very conservative)
• Outside sources (e.g., Jet Propulsion Lab for radiation data)

Actual field performance indicates that components tend to drift beyond initial tolerance
levels. The magnitude of component tolerance variation is dependent on a variety of
sources, as illustrated in Table 4. When conducting a worst case circuit performance
analysis, the key elements to be examined within the system are dependent upon the
intended function of the circuit. Critical timing of digital circuits, transfer functions of
filtering networks, and characteristics of amplifiers are examples of circuit performance
elements. Table 5 describes those parameters which should be analyzed in a worst case
performance analysis for digital and analog circuits.

1
 System Reliability Center
201 Mill Street
Rome, NY 13440-6916
888.722.8737
or 315.337.0900
Fax: 315.337.9932

Worst Case Circuit Analysis (WCCA) (Cont'd)

Methodology

Part statistics are based on two types of component variation: random and bias. Random
variation is not predictable in direction. Bias, however, is predictable given known inputs.
All sources of component variation can be grouped into one of these effects. The effects are
subsequently combined to give an overall indication of part variability. Addition of individual
random and biased variables is as follows:

• Bias Effects – Added Algebraically

• Random Effects – Root Sum Squared (±3σ limits of a normally distributed
population)

Determination of the minimum and maximum limits of component value due to drift is as
follows:

Worst Case Minimum = Nominal Value - (Nominal Value x Σ | Negative Biases | )

 
-  Nominal Value x ∑ (Random Effects)2 
 

Worst Case Maximum = Nominal Value + (Nominal Value x Σ | Positive Biases | )

 
+  Nominal Value x ∑ (Random Effects)2 
 

Table 1. WCCA Analysis Methods

Method Advantages Disadvantages
Extreme Value • Most readily obtainable estimate of worst • Pessimistic estimate of circuit worst
Analysis (EVA) case performance (best initial WCCA case performance
approach) • If circuit fails, there is insufficient data
• Does not require statistical inputs for to assess risk (modify circuit to meet
circuit parameters (easiest to apply) EVA requirements, or apply RSS or MCA
• Database need only supply part parameter for less conservatism)
variation extremes (easiest to apply)
• If circuit passes EVA, it will always
function properly (high confidence for
critical production applications)
Root-Sum- • More realistic estimate of worst case • Standard deviation (σ) of piece part
Squared (RSS) performance than EVA parameter probability distribution is
• Knowledge of part parameter probability required
density function (pdf) is not required • Assumes circuit sensitivities remain
• Provides a limited degree of risk constant over range of parameter
assessment (% of units to pass or fail) variability
• Assumes circuit performance variability
follows a normal distribution
Monte Carlo • Provides the most realistic estimate of true • Requires use of computer
Analysis (MCA) worst case performance • Consumes a large amount of CPU time
• Provides additional information in support • Requires knowledge of part parameter
of circuit/product risk assessment pdf

2
 System Reliability Center
201 Mill Street
Rome, NY 13440-6916
888.722.8737
or 315.337.0900
Fax: 315.337.9932

Worst Case Circuit Analysis (WCCA) (Cont'd)

Calculation of Capacitor Minimum and Maximum Values

The following example illustrates a representative calculation for determining the worst case
minimum and maximum values for a 1200 µF CLR capacitor. These parameters are used to
determine the potential resultant effect of CLR capacitor drift on circuit applications.

Table 2. Capacitor Example

Bias (%)
Parameters: Capacitance Neg. Pos. Random (%)
Initial Tolerance at 25°C -- -- 20
Low Temp. (-20°C) 28 -- --
High Temp. (+80°C) -- 17 --
Other-Envt's (Hard Vacuum) 20 -- --
Radiation (10KR, 1013 N/cm2 ) -- 12 --
Aging -- -- 10
TOTAL VARIATION 48 29
(20) 2 + (10) 2 = 22.4

where:

Worst Case Minimum = - 48 - 22.4 = -70.4%

Worst Case Maximum = + 29 + 22.4 = +51.4%
Worst Case Minimum Capacitance = 1200µf - 1200µf ( | -.48 | + .224) = 355.2µf
Worst Case Maximum Capacitance = 1200µf + 1200µf ( | +.29 | + .224) = 1816.8µf

Table 3. Worst Case Circuit Analysis Process

Action Rationale
Determine Analysis • Full analysis vs. circuit partitioning to critical functions
Approach • Define the circuitry to be analyzed (analog, digital, etc.)
• Determine availability of component data
• Identify the tools available to support the analysis
Obtain the Data
• Performance • Analyst must be knowledgeable of the circuit and parameters being
Requirements and examined, including timing diagrams where appropriate
Specifications
• Schematics and Block
Diagrams
• Interconnection Lists and
Wiring Diagrams
• Full Parts Lists
• Theory of Operation
• Product Operational
Environments
• Product Operational
Configurations
• Thermal Design Analysis

3
 System Reliability Center
201 Mill Street
Rome, NY 13440-6916
888.722.8737
or 315.337.0900
Fax: 315.337.9932

Worst Case Circuit Analysis (WCCA) (Cont'd)

Table 3. Worst Case Circuit Analysis Process (Cont'd)

Action Rationale
Plan the Analysis • Functional breakdown should include block diagrams that outline
• Develop a Functional major sub functions
Breakdown and Theory of • Block diagrams should detail all functional interactions (inputs and
Operation outputs)
• Establish the Analysis • Primary considerations include analysis of worst case circuit
Scope performance, and analysis of proper part application (i.e., derating)
• Secondary considerations may include circuit shielding, noise, EMI,
ground loops and temperature control
• Develop a Part Parameter • Critical part parameters include environmental (ambient and self-
Database (See Table 2, 4, heating temperature, vibration, humidity, radiation) and
and 5) component aging characteristics
• Identify Method of • Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) is easiest to apply. Analysis of a
Analysis (See Table 1) given circuit/product under simultaneous worst case parts limits.
Results are conservative.
• Root-Sum-Squared (RSS) is a statistical approach. Results are
more realistic than EVA, but methodology is more labor intensive.
• Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA) randomly selects part parameters and
analyzes resulting system performance. Many simulations
(typically 1,000 to 50,000 runs) must be made. Piece-part
parameter statistical distributions must be known (or assumed
normal).
Perform the Analysis • Identifies components that are overstressed under worst case
• Worst Case Stress conditions (or exceed product derating guidelines)
Analysis
• Worst Case Performance • Analyze circuit to determine if performance under worst case
Analysis conditions is achieved (simultaneous change of environmental
conditions and part parameters to their worst realizable extremes)
• For circuit partitioning, minimize the active components to as few
logical blocks as possible
• Include circuit and timing diagrams, as appropriate, in the analysis
• Compare WCCA results with the specifications, documenting all
inconsistencies
Document the Results • Analysis results should be verifiable (document or reference all
information used to develop the analysis - circuit equations, part
data sources, and circuit simulation tools used)
• If problems are found during the analysis, develop and propose
potential fixes and alternative solutions

4
 System Reliability Center
201 Mill Street
Rome, NY 13440-6916
888.722.8737
or 315.337.0900
Fax: 315.337.9932

Worst Case Circuit Analysis (WCCA) (Cont'd)

Table 4. Effected Parameters vs. Source of Variation

Environmental
Component Type Source of Variation Parameter Effected
Bipolar/Field Effect Temperature HFE (Bias) , VBE (Bias)
Transistors ICBO (Bias)
RDSON (Bias) , VTH (Bias)
Radiation HFE (Bias) , ICBO (Bias)
VCE (Saturation) (Random & Bias)
VTH (Bias)
Rectifiers/Switching Temperature VF (Bias) , TS (Bias) , IR (Bias)
Diodes
Radiation IR (Bias) , VF (Bias)
Zener Diodes Temperature VZ (Bias) , (Sometimes Random)
ZZ (Bias)
Resistors Temperature Resistance (Bias & Random, Random)
Humidity Resistance (Bias) Carbon Composition
Aging (Powered) Resistance (Bias & Random)
Life (Unpowered) Resistance (Bias & Random)
Vacuum Resistance (Bias)
Mechanical Resistance (Bias & Random)
Capacitors Temperature Capacitance (Bias and/or Random)
ESR (Bias), DF (Bias, Non Linear)
Aging ESR (Bias), Capacitance (Bias and/or Random)
Mechanical Capacitance
Electrical Voltage Coefficient
Vacuum Capacitance (Bias, Non Hermetic)
Humidity Capacitance (Bias)
Linear ICs Radiation Voltage, current offset (Random), AOL (Bias)
Temperature Voltage, current offset (Bias & Random), Random
AOL (Bias)
Digital ICs Temperature Propagation Delay (Bias)
• Rise/Fall Time
• Propagation Delay
Radiation
Magnetics (strongly Temperature Saturation flux density (Bias)
dependent on Permeability (Bias)
materials) Core Loss (Bias, Nonlinear, Nonmonotonic)
Aging Saturation flux density (Bias, very small)
Mechanical Permeability (Bias)
Saturation flux density (Bias)
Relays Temperature Pull in/Drop out current/volts (Bias)
Contact resistance (Bias, Secondary effect)
Mechanical Contact Resistance (Bias)
HFE gain VF forward voltage ESR equivalent series resistance
ICBO collector-base output current Ts storage time DF dissipation factor
RDSON on-drain source resistance IR reverse current AOL open loop gain
VTH threshold voltage Vz zener voltage
VCE collector-emitter voltage Zz zener impedance

5
 System Reliability Center
201 Mill Street
Rome, NY 13440-6916
888.722.8737
or 315.337.0900
Fax: 315.337.9932

Worst Case Circuit Analysis (WCCA) (Cont'd)

Table 5. Circuit Parameters for WCCA

Digital Circuit Parameters
• Circuit Logic • Pulse Widths • Compatibility
• Circuit Timing • Current Draw
Analog Circuit Parameters
• Comparator • Oscillator
- Threshold Precision - Hysteresis - Frequency, Accuracy, Stability
- Switching Speed/Time Constant - Output Power Level Stability
- Offset Stability - Output Impedance - Load Impedance
- Phase Stability
- Noise & Spurious Output

• Filter • Detector
- Insertion Loss - Phase Response - Bias Voltage - Input Impedance
- Frequency Response - Linearity - Frequency Range - Output Impedance
- Input/Output Impedance - VSWR - VSWR - Input
- Spurious or Out-of-Band Feedthrough

• Modulator • RF Switch (Solid State/Mechanical)

- Frequency Response - Phase Response - Drive Requirements - Insertion Loss
- Input/Output Impedance - Linearity - Power Dissipation - Frequency Response
- Insertion Loss - Output Level - Power Handling - Video Feedthrough
- Deviation - VSWR - Switching Speed - Switch Duty Cycles
- Input/Output Impedance - VSWR

• Multiplier • Coupler, Circulator

- Output Power - Input Drive - Insertion Loss - Magnetic Leakage
- Frequency Response - Frequency Response - VSWR
- Input/Output Impedance - Power Handling - Directivity
- Input/Output Impedance

• Mixer (Converter) • Stripline, Waveguide, Cavity

- Noise Figure - Group Delay - Mode Suppression - Insertion Loss
- Frequency - Power Dissipation - Adjustment Range, Resolution
- Output Spectrum - Conversion Loss - Dimensional Stability - VSWR
- Intercept Points - Driver Require- - Input/Output Impedance
- Compression Points ments - Material Stability
- Terminating Impedance

Copyright  2004 Alion Science and Technology. All rights reserved.

Source:
• RAC Publication, CPE, Reliability Toolkit: Commercial Practices Edition.

For More Information:

• RAC Publication, CRTAWCCA, Worst Case Circuit Analysis Application Guidelines.