Pak. J. Commer. Soc. Sci.

2012 Vol. 6 (1), 83-96

Effectiveness of Exchange Rate in Pakistan:
Causality Analysis

Rana Ejaz Ali Khan (Corresponding Author)
Associate Professor, Department of Management Sciences,
COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Sahiwal. Pakistan.
E-mail: [email protected]

Rashid Sattar
Department of Economics, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur. Pakistan
E-mail: [email protected]

Hafeez ur Rehman
Department of Economics, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur. Pakistan
E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract
The study analyzed the effectiveness of exchange rate on macroeconomic variables of
Pakistan. The precise objective of the study is to examine the causality between exchange
rate, trade, inflation, FDI and GDP through a series of models. On the annual time series
data for the years 1980-2009 unit root test for stationarity, Johansens cointegration test
for long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables for each model and Granger
Causality test to check the causality between the variables is applied. The main findings
are as: there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and inflation,
but there exists long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and trade. There
is also long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and FDI and causality
runs in both directions, i.e. exchange rate to FDI and FDI to exchange rate. Finally, there
is long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and GDP but causality does
not run in either direction.
Keywords: Exchange rate, Pakistan, Inflation, FDI, GDP.
1. Introduction
Exchange rate is one of the most important policy variables in an open economy as it
affects the macroeconomic variables like, trade, capital flows, FDI, inflation,
international reserve, GDP and remittances, etc. The economists and policy makers
believe that increasing the exchange rate brings about competitive advantage in
international trade. When a country increases exchange rate, domestic export goods
becomes cheaper relative to its trading partners resulting into an increase in international
demand of exports and a decrease in imports. It also affects the FDI and remittances. All
of these ultimately affect the level of GDP. Due to the change in the prices of imports and
exports, there emerged the possibility of change in inflation in the economy.
For an economy like Pakistan exchange rate plays an important role in international trade
along with FDI and ultimately the GDP. The impact of exchange rate volatility on
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84
macroeconomic variables particularly the international trade has been studied intensively
since the late 1970s when the exchange rate moved from fixed to flexible system. The
theory explains that higher exchange rate volatility reduces trade by creating uncertainty
about future profits from export trade. By using the forward markets and managing the
timings of payments and receipts the exports can reduce the uncertainties in the short-run.
In the long-run, exchange rate volatility may affect trade indirectly by influencing firms
investment decisions. Real exchange rate is crucial to determine foreign direct
investment. Goldberg and Klein (1997) opined that foreign direct investment in less
developed countries is significantly affected by bilateral real exchange rate.
Less restrictive models of the equilibrium exchange rate, such as the traditional Mundell-
Fleming model (Mundell, 1963) or generalized portfolio balance (Branson and Buiter,
1983) assume that output is not fixed at the level of full employment, and postulate that
the current account balance determines the equilibrium exchange rate. In other words, the
real exchange rate, rather than assumed to be constant, is related to the relative output
levels. The empirical implication of this hypothesis is that the real exchange rate should
be co-integrated with the relative levels of domestic and foreign output.
The change in exchange rate can affect domestic prices through direct and indirect
channels. Under the direct channel, a fall in exchange rate may trigger increase in the
prices of imports of finished goods and inputs in local currency.
Under the indirect channel, depreciation of the exchange rate makes domestic products
relatively cheaper for foreign buyers, demand for exports rise and induce an increase in
the domestic price level subject to limited surplus for exports. Since nominal wage
contracts are fixed in the short-run, so real wages decline. However, when real wages
approach to their original level over time, the production cost increases and the overall
price level moves up.
For the reasons, exchange rate is the most watched analyzed and manipulated economic
measures by governments. However, the empirical evidences of such types of
relationships are mixed for different economies possibly due to the economic level,
structure and international trade policies. The objective of our study is to empirically see
the effectiveness of exchange rate for adjusting trade, inflation, FDI and GDP in Pakistan.
2. Review of Literature
There is a variety of literature on exchange rate implications for different economies. It
ranges from causality analysis to effectiveness of exchange rate policies. Similarly, a
good range of techniques exists in the literature. For instance, Rittenberg (1993)
employed the granger causality tests to examine the relationship between change in
exchange rate and price level in Turkey. Since causality tests were sensitive to lag
selection, therefore the researcher employed three different methods for optimal lag
selection. In all cases it was found that causality runs from price level change to exchange
rate change but there was no feedback causality from change in exchange rate to change
in price level.
The simultaneous determination of nominal exchange rate and domestic price level in
Pakistan has been analyzed by (Ahmad and Ali, 1999). The study concluded that the
relationship between price level and exchange rate was bi-directional. So managing the
exchange rate was not proposed in the presence of inflation. Bhatti (2001) using the
quarterly data of 1982-2004 and applying Johansen multivariate maximum likelihood
Effectiveness of Exchange Rate in Pakistan



85
technique of cointegration concluded that there exists a long-run relationship between
exchange rate and relative prices, income and interest rate.
Aftab and Aurangzeb (2002) investigated the long-run and short-run impact of exchange
rate devaluation on Pakistan's trade performance. They used the Johansen's co-integration
technique to investigate the long-run trade elasticities and the presence of Marshall-
Lerner (ML) condition. They also investigated the short-run exchange rate dynamics by
constructing an error-correction model to trace the J-curve. For the quarterly data for time
period 1998-2000, the study reaffirmed the satisfaction of the ML condition in the long-
run for Pakistan. The results showed that there was the existence of j-curve phenomenon
in the country. The results indicated that the real depreciation of Pak-rupee may be used
as a policy tool to improve the trade balance.
The effect of exchange rate volatility on export growth has been investigated by Mustafa
and (Nishat, 2004). They used quarterly data for the years 1991-2004 and applied
cointegration and error-correction technique. The study concluded with mixed results of
export growth in Pakistan for different economies. The volatility of exchange rate has
negative and significant effect in the long-run and short-run for Australia, New Zealand,
UK and US. However for the countries like Bangladesh and Malaysia no empirical
relationship observed. Azid et al. (2005) have probed whether excessive volatility or
shifting of exchange rate regimes have pronounced effects on manufacturing sector of
Pakistan. The results obtained by impulse response endorsed that exchange rate volatility
has no significant effect on manufacturing production. It raised a serious concern to
policy makers about the cost of adopting flexible exchange rate system.
The empirical evidence on interaction between exchange rate and FDI are based on the
fact the there is a keen competition for FDI among countries. The exchange rate policy
could explicitly or implicitly serve as an instrument to reinforce a countrys FDI
competitiveness. Xing (2006b) examined the FDI-exchange rate nexus in the context of
one FDI source and two host countries. It focused on the effect of exchange rates on
relative FDI inflows between the two host countries. The theoretical analysis shows
explicitly that relative FDI inflows are a function of relative real exchange rates. In
particular, if one host country devalues its currency against that of the source country
more than the other does, FDI into the former country will be expected to increase
relative to the other country. This theoretically inference is examined by the study, with
Japanese FDI in manufacturing industries of China and ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines and Thailand). The results support the theoretical conclusion suggesting that
real devaluation of the Chinese Yuan undercut FDI into ASEAN-4. The theoretical and
empirical results also suggested that the relation between exchange rates and FDI is
multidimensional. The exchange rate policy of one FDI host country influences not only
its own FDI inflows but also substantially affects FDI into other countries competing for
FDI from the same source.
Examining the competition between China and ASEAN-4 for FDI from Japan, Xing and
Wan (2006) empirically show that the Chinese Yuans cumulative devaluation was one of
the reasons causing shifting of Japanese FDI from ASEAN-4 to China. Based on analysis
of Japanese FDI in Chinas manufacturing, Xing (2006a) argued that the cumulative
devaluation of the Chinese Yuan significantly enhanced Japanese direct investment into
China.
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86
The relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth for Pakistan had
been empirical investigated by Javed and Farooq (2009) employing Error Correction
techniques along with Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. They concluded
that exchange rate volatility, reserve money and exports have long-run positive
relationship with economic growth. Alam and Ahmed (2010) have investigated the
impact of exchange rate volatility on Pakistans aggregate export demand. The study
concluded that real effective exchange rate has not increased the level of exports in the
long-run. The study further concluded that volatility of real depreciation has not
decreased import demand in Pakistan, i.e. import demand is insensitive or inelastic to real
depreciation and its volatility
3. Data and Model Specifications
The main objective of this study is to explore the links between exchange rate, and trade,
inflation, FDI and GDP in Pakistan. We used the annual time series data for the years
1980-2009. The data has been taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan, Federal Bureau
of Statistics and World Bank. Most of the economic variables exhibit a non stationary
trend.
We checked the stationarity of data, otherwise ordinary least square may generate
spurious results. We used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test developed by Dickey
and Fuller (1981) to find the unit root problem in data, which is indication for non-
stationarity of data. ADF test is based on the following equation:
(1-L)Y
t=
+ Y
t-1
+

k
i
i
1

(1-L) Y
t-i
+ut .. (i)

Where, L is a lag operator, t denotes time trend, and u
t
is a white noise error term. Y
t

denotes the variables for which study is testing unit root problem. Y
t-i
are the lagged
values of variables of our study.
i
are the coefficients of lagged values of Y
t-i
to capture
the optimum lag length (k), k ensures that there is no correlation between error term and
regressors of this equation. Lag length is selected by AIC criterion. The equation is only
with constant and includes also time trend t afterward along with constant. ADF test
checks the statistical significance of , if has statistically zero value then Y
t
has unit
root problem and is non-stationary. If is not statistically zero then there is not a problem
of unit root and Y
t
is stationary.
A series of the models have been used to see the effectiveness of exchange rate (EXR =
Rs/Dollar) on macroeconomic variables like inflation (INF =Consumer Price Index),
foreign direct investment (FDI =FDI as a percentage of GDP), international trade (TR =
Volume of Trade as percentage of GDP), and gross domestic product (GDP =GDP
growth rate).
We hypothesized that exchange rate is conintegrated with inflation, trade, FDI and GDP.
Cointegration, a multivariate technique, occurs between two or more time series
variables, if one or more linear combinations of different nonstationary time series
produce stationary time series (Engle and Granger, 1987). The linear combination
produces the long run relationship between different time series because it is a
description of the lasting effects shared by the different time series (Johansen, 1995). The
long run relationship, as a statistical point of view, means the variables move together
Effectiveness of Exchange Rate in Pakistan



87
over time so that short term disturbances from the long term trend will be corrected. A
lack of cointegration suggests that such variable have no long run equilibrium
relationship and in principle, they can wander arbitrarily far away from each other
(Dickey et al., 1991).
The Johansen (1991) maximum likelihood test is used to test the cointegration between
EXR, INF, FDI, TR and GDP. That means it examines, whether the series are driven by
common trends (Stock and Watson, 1988) or, equivalently, whether they are cointegrated
(Engle and Granger, 1987). The test statistic is used as follows;

t k t k t t t
X X X X

...
2 2 1 1
(ii)

Where X
t
is the vector of non-stationary I (1) variables;
1
,
2
, ..
k
are the parameters;
t

is the vector of random errors which is distributed with zero mean and variance matrix.
The model can be further rewrites as:
t i t
p
i
i t t
X X X

1
1
1
(iii)
Where
i i
p
i
i
I

1
.. (iv)
and
j
p
j
i i


1
.,. (v)
The Granger representation theorem asserts that if the coefficient matrix has reduced
rank r < x, there exists x X r matrix and each with rank r such that =

and

X
t

is stationary. R is the number of cointegrating relations (the cointegration rank) and each
column of is the cointegrating vector. The elements of are known as the adjustment
parameters in the vector error correction model. Johansens method is to estimate
matrix is an unrestricted form, the test whether we can reject the restrictions implied by
the reduced rank of .
We use Granger Causality Test to analyze the causality between variables for each
model. If both variables are integrated of order one, 1(1), and there is cointegration
between them. Granger causality test is a technique for determining whether one time
series is useful in forecasting other one.
4. Results and Discussion
Before conducting tests for cointegration and causality, the stationarity properties of the
variables have been checked by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test. To
determine the order of integration of time series, unit root test has been applied on level
as well as first difference. The table-1 shows the results of ADF unit root test.
Stationarity of all variables has been tested with intercept and trend. Results indicate the
acceptance of the unit root hypothesis in the level, then time series become stationary in
first difference, in other words all the variables are integrated of order one, I(1).
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88


Table 1: Results of ADF Unit Root Test

Variables
Level First Difference
t-statics critical value at 1% t-statics critical value at 1%
Exchange Rate -1.653 -4.416 -5.611 -4.416
Trade -4.953 -4.309 -5.262 -4.356
Inflation -3.393 -4.394 -6.186 -4.323
FDI -4.372 -4.440 -4.080 -3.644
GDP -3.750 -4.309 -3.583 -3.261

4.1 Exchange Rate and Inflation
In the literature, there are various trends associated with the use of fixed exchange rate to
reduce inflation. These trends include an appreciation of the real exchange rate, strong
growth of output and aggregate demand and a widening of trade and current account
deficit. Two broad approaches exist to explain these developments. One approach focuses
on explaining the stylized facts of exchange rate based stabilization, in an equilibrium
framework, assuming that prices clear the goods market at each moment in time (see
Rebelo and Vegh, 1995 for overview of equilibrium theories). In this equilibrium
approach the disinflation associated with exchange rate based stabilization is shown to
raise aggregate demand, thereby boosting output, raising prices of non-tradable goods
appreciating the real exchange rate and widening the trade deficit. The second broad
approach towards understanding the effects of exchange rate based stabilization stresses
the persistence of inflation in a framework in which goods and/or labor markets
temporarily may be out of equilibrium. It might be termed as intertial inflation
approach, immediately following the implementation of a fixed exchange rate regime,
inflation is posited to be slow to decline to international levels as a result of over-lapping
contracts, imperfect credibility, or backward-looking expectations (Dornbusch and
Werner, 1994). The presence of intertial inflation explains both the real appreciation of
the exchange rate and determination of trade performance observed during exchange rate
based stabilization program.
The theoretical model relating the Exchange Rate Pass Through (ERPT) to a lower
inflation environment is provided by Tylor (2000). This is explained through a model of
firm behavior based on staggered price setting and monopolistic competition. As firms
set prices for several periods in advance, they are more responsive to cost increase due to
exchange rate movement if cost changes are perceived to be persistent. The regimes with
higher inflation tend to lead to persistent cost changes. Taylor argued that a high inflation
environment would thus tend to increase ERPT. In other words, ERPT would be
endogeneous to a countrys inflation performance. Devereux and Yetman (2010)
developed a related argument. In their model with sticky prices, they allowed for the
frequency price changes to be chosen by firm. For a given menu cost of changing prices,
their model shows that firm will choose a higher frequency of price adjustment, the
higher is the average rate of inflation and the volatility of the nominal exchange rate. The
higher in the frequency of price changes, the greater is ERPT. Campa and Goldberg
(2005) argued that an important implication of Taylors argument is that there is a
Effectiveness of Exchange Rate in Pakistan



89
virtuous circle where low inflation leads to reduce ERPT which makes it easier to keep
inflation low, thereby keeping ERPT low. Choudhri and Hakura (2006) found strong
evidence of a positive correlation between ERPT and the average inflation for a large
sample of developed and emerging market economies.
For Pakistan, there are empirical evidences of increase in exchange rate to boost inflation
(see Ahmed and Ali, 1999). We will check cointegration between exchange rate and
inflation which explores the long-run equilibrium relationship between them. Akaike
Information Criterion (AIC) is used to determine the optimal lag length selection.
Table 2: Results for Lag Length Selection
Lag Length AIC
0 14.594
1 10.484
2 10.452
3 10.403*
4 10.584
AIC denotes Akaike Information Criterion
* indicates optimal lag length selected by AIC
The AIC has been again used to determine the most appropriate model specification for
Johansen cointegration test.
Table 3: Optimal Model Specification Selected by the AIC
Number of cointegration
equations
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5
0 10.914 10.914 10.790 10.790 10.785
1 10.786 10.787 10.689 10.651* 10.652
2 10.989 10.892 10.892 10.747 10.747
*indicates optimal model specification selected by the AIC
Results of the cointegration test are reported in tables-3. Both the Trace Eigenvalue test
and Maximum Eigenvalue test indicate no-cointegratin, which shows that there is no
long-run relationship between exchange rate and inflation.
Table4: Johansen Cointegration Test (Trace Eigen value Statistics)
Number of cointegrating equations Eigenvalue Trace statics 5% critical value
None* .407 21.127 25.872
At most 1 .251 7.515 12.517

Table 5: Results of Johansen Cointegration Test (Maximum Eigen value Statistics)
Number of cointegrating equations Eigenvalue Max statics 5% critical value
None* .407 13.612 19.387
At most 1 .251 7.515 12.517

We have calculated the Wald test statics for causality between exchange rate and
inflation (see table-6). The Wald static shows no causality in either direction. The
evidence of long-run cointegration does not exist between exchange rate and inflation.
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90
Table 6: Causality Results Based on Wald Test Statistics
Hypothesis Wald test-statics Prob
Exchange Rate does not cause Inflation 3.80 0.149
Inflation does not cause Exchange rate 2.89 0.235

4.2 Exchange rate and Trade
Theoretically there exists a correlation between exchange rate and international trade. A
depreciation in currency makes the exports cheaper and imports costly. In this way the
effect of depreciation on international trade may be positive or negative. If the exports are
more price sensitive to the imports and the country is having surplus items of exports
then total volume of the trade will be increased. On the other hand if imports are more
price sensitive as compared to the exports and the country is having deficit balance of
payments then there may be possibility of decreased trade volume of the country. Ahmed,
et. al. (2006) supported the conventional positive responsiveness of net exports due to
real exchange rate depreciation but largely driven by falling imports rather than rising
exports.
Similarly the volume of trade along with its composition, i.e. volume of imports and
exports also affects the exchange rate. For a country having higher bulk of the trade, if
the ratio of exports to imports is higher, then there may be a possibility of decrease in
exchange rate. Although Ahmed et al. (2006) empirically evidenced that terms of trade
shocks have very little effect on Pakistans real exchange rate.
For empirical investigation we have checked the cointegration between exchange rate and
trade to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and trade.
The results of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to determine the optimal lag length
selection has been shown in table-7.
Table 7: Results of Lag Length Selection
Lag Length AIC
0 15.301
1 11.000*
2 11.235
3 11.461
AIC denotes Akaike Information Criterion
* indicates optimal lag length selected by AIC
The AIC has been used to determine the most appropriate model specification for
Johansen cointegration test. The results are shown in table-8.
Table 8: Optimal Model Specification Selected by the AIC
Number of cointegration
equations
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5
0 11.659 11.659 11.512 11.512 11.592
1 11.473 11.329 11.144 11.090* 11.100
2 11.602 11.402 11.402 11.263 11.263
*indicates optimal model specification selected by the AIC

Effectiveness of Exchange Rate in Pakistan



91
Results of the Johansen cointegration test are reported in tables-9 and 10. Both the Trace
Eigenvalue test and Maximum Eigenvalue test indicate cointegration expressing long-run
relationship between exchange rate and trade.
Table 9: Results of Johansen Cointegration Test (Trace Eigenvalue Statistics)
Number of cointegrating equations Eigenvalue Trace statics 5% critical value
None* .540 26.958 25.872
At most 1 .168 5.155 12.517
*indicates significance at 5% level

Table 10: Results of Johansen Cointegration Test (Maximum Eigenvalue Statistics)
Number of cointegrating equations Eigenvalue Max statics 5% critical value
None* .540 21.802 19.387
At most 1 .168 5.155 12.517

*indicates significance at 5% level
The Wald-static for exchange rate and trade are shown in table-11, which shows no
causality in either direction. The evidence of long-run cointegration between exchange
rate and trade is existed. The results may be explained as the imports of the country are
inelastic to prices so an increased exchange rate has no effect on the imports. On the
other hand, for exports we have no surplus of exports mainly due to compressed
agricultural production. So exports remained unaffected to change in exchange rate.
Furthermore, in the global market demand for agricultural products is inelastic to price.
Table 11: Causality Results Based on Wald Test Statics (Model 2)
Hypothesis Wald test-statics Prob
Exchange Rate does not cause Trade 1.878 0.391
Trade does not cause Exchange rate 1.089 0.580

Theoretical studies on the nexus of FDI and exchange rate explained that a devaluation of
the host country (of FDI) currency against that of a source country enhance inflows of
FDI through both the production cost and relative wealth channels. Exchange rate not
only influence FDI flows between source and host countries, but also the distribution of
FDI among host countries competing for FDI from the same source country. Given other
factors determining FDI, such as market size, growth, labor skill, political and economic
stability and the regulatory framework constant, if a host country devaluates its currency
against that of the FDI source country by more than its rival countries, the devaluation
will reduce its local production cost in terms of foreign currency more, thus making it
more attractive for foreign investment. In other words, from the point of view of foreign
investors, the wealth and production cost effects associated with devaluation should be
greater in the country which devalues its currency more, therefore strengthening its
competitiveness for FDI and leading to a higher level of FDI inflows.
In our study for the third model of exchange rate and FDI, the results of Akaike
Information Criterion (AIC) to determine the optimal lag length selection are shown in
table-12.

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92
Table 12: Results for Lag Length Selection
Lag Length AIC
0 11.296
1 6.667
2 6.002*
3 6.198

AIC denotes Akaike Information Criterion
* indicates optimal lag length selected by AIC
The AIC results to determine the most appropriate model specification for Johansen
cointegration test are shown in table-13.
Table 13: Optimal Model Specification Selected by the AIC
Number of cointegration
equations
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5
0 6.622 6.622 6.455 6.455 6.528
1 6.415 6.471 6.231* 6.305 6.306
2 6.491 6.494 6.494 6.420 6.420
*indicates optimal model specification selected by the AIC
Results of the cointegration test are reported in the tables-14 and 15. Both the Trace
Eigenvalue test and Maximum Eigenvalue test indicate one cointegrating equation, which
shows that there exists long-run relationship between exchange rate and FDI.
Table 14: Johansen Cointegration Test (Trace Eigenvalue Statistics)
Number of cointegrating equations Eigenvalue Trace statics 10% critical value
None* .405 14.928 13.428
At most 1 .032 .887 2.705

*indicates significance at 10% level
Table 15: Johansen Cointegration Test (Maximum Eigenvalue Statistics)
Number of cointegrating equations Eigenvalue Max statics 10% critical value
None* .405 14.040 12.296
At most 1 .032 .887 2.705

*indicates significance at 10% level
The results of Wald test statics for causality between exchange rate and FDI are shown in
table-16. The Wald-static shows the causality in both directions.
Table 16: Causality Results Based on Wald test statics
Hypothesis Wald test-statics Prob
Exchange Rate does not cause FDI 5.750 .056
FDI does not cause Exchange rate 22.067 .0000

The bi-directional positive relationship between FDI and exchange rate
1
may be
explained as an increase in exchange rate enhances the value of foreign currency making
the decrease in cost of production in host currency. It attracts the foreign investment. On

11
Bayoumi and Lipworth (1998) emphasized that for Southeast Asian economies the
bilateral real exchange rate was one of the FDI determinants for these countries.
Effectiveness of Exchange Rate in Pakistan



93
the other hand, the increase in FDI results into increased exports as in Pakistan, foreign
direct investment is mainly concerned with export industry. The phenomenon contributes
to variability in exchange rate.
4.3 Exchange Rate and GDP
For the model of long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and GDP, the
Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) results to determine the optimal lag length selection
are shown in table-17.
Table 17: Results of Lag Length Selection
Lag Length AIC
0 13.125
1 9.260*
2 9.353
3 9.520

AIC denotes Akaike Information Criterion
* indicates optimal lag length selected by AIC
The AIC is again used to determine the most appropriate model specification for
Johansen cointegration test.
Table 18: Optimal Model Specification Selected by the AIC
Number of cointegration
equations
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5
0 9.769 9.769 9.621 9.621 9.675
1 9.732 9.513 9.349 9.343 9.332*
2 9.888 9.602 9.602 9.508 9.508
*indicates optimal model specification selected by the AIC
Results of the cointegration test are reported in tables-19 and 20. Both the Trace
Eigenvalue test and Maximum Eigenvalue test indicate one cointegrating equation, which
shows that there is long-run relationship between exchange rate and GDP.
Table 19: Johansen Cointegration Test (Trace Eigenvalue Statistics)
Number of cointegrating
equations
Eigenvalue Trace
statics
5% critical
value
10% critical
value
None* .466 20.692 18.397 16.106
At most 1 .104 3.091 3.841 2.705
*indicates significance at 5% and 10% level
Table 20: Johansen Cointegration Test (Maximum Eigenvalue Statistics)
Number of cointegrating
equations
Eigenvalue Max
statics
5% critical
value
10% critical
value
None* .466 17.600 17.147 15.001
At most 1 .104 3.091 3.841 2.705
*indicates significance at 5% and 10% level
The Wald-static shows no causality in either direction (see table-21). There is evidence of
long-run cointegration between exchange rate and GDP.
Khan et al

94

Theoretically there exists a positive correlation between high exchange rate and
economic growth of a country. The depreciation stimulates economic growth, if the
imports are price elastic and comprised of consumer items or the exports are price elastic.
It may be particular case for developing economies.
On the other hand, due to economic development there would be efficient use of
resources, adaptation of technology and refined human capital resulting into better quality
output in a bigger volume for exports. Consequently prices of exports are decreased and
the relative prices of imports are increased. In the case of Pakistan, the scenario is
different. The major imports are comprised of raw material like machinery, petroleum, oil
and lubricants and chemicals. On the other hand major exports are consisted of
agricultural products. It explains the results of current study, i.e. no causality between the
exchange rate and GDP.
Table 21: Causality Results Based on Wald test statics
Hypothesis Wald test-statics Prob
Exchange Rate does not cause GDP 2.857 0.239
GDP does not cause Exchange rate 2.502 .286

5. Conclusion
We analyzed the effectiveness of exchange rate on inflation, trade, GDP and FDI for
Pakistan. The major findings of the study are as follows:
Exchange rate and inflation are not cointegrated with each other. So there is no
causality in either direction.
Exchange rate and trade are cointegrated with each other, so there is long-run
equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and trade, but no causality found in either
direction.
Exchange rate and FDI are cointegrated with each other, so there is long-run
equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and FDI and causality found in both
directions.
Exchange rate and GDP are also cointegrated with each other but there is no causality
in either direction.
It may be concluded that exchange rate policy is not effective to have the desired results
for macroeconomic variables. Only foreign direct investment is the area for which
exchange rate may contribute.







Effectiveness of Exchange Rate in Pakistan



95
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