Renewals - Perry Anderson
Renewals - Perry Anderson
Renewals - Perry Anderson
T
he life-span of journals is no warrant of their achieve-
ment. A couple of issues, and abrupt extinction, can count for
more in the history of a culture than a century of continuous
publication. In its three years, the Athenaeum put German
Romanticism into orbit. The reworks of the Revue Blanche, the rst
journal of a modern avant-garde, lit Paris for barely a decade. Lef closed
after seven issues in Moscow. These were reviews at the intersection of
aesthetic innovation with philosophy and politics. Journals of criticism
have often survived longerThe Criterion, in various incarnations, for
most of the inter-war period, Scrutiny from the thirties into the fties.
Reasons for closure might be external, even accidental, but typically the
vitality of a journal is tied to those who create it. In heroic cases, a single
individual can defy time with the composition of a personal monument:
Kraus writing Die Fackel alone for twenty-ve years, Croce rivalling the
feat with La Critica. Usually, life-cycles of journals are more adventi-
tious and dispersed. Editors quarrel, change their minds, get bored or go
bankrupt, for the most part well before they go to the grave themselves.
A political journal is as subject to the incidents of mortality as any other.
In one respect, more sosince politics is always a Kampfplatz, a eld of
division, breaking ties and forcing conicts. Wreckage through disputes
or scissions is more frequent here than anywhere else. In other respects,
however, political journals have a different reason for being, that makes
renewal beyond their rst impetus a test specic to them. They stand
both for certain objective principles, and the capacity of these to decipher
the course of the world. Here, editorial fade-out is intellectual defeat.
Material or institutional pressures may, of course, cut off any periodical
RENEWALS
perry anderson
Editorial
2 nlr 1
in its prime. But short of such circumstances, political journals have no
choice: to be true to themselves, they must aim to extend their real life
beyond the conditions or generations that gave rise to them.
This journal, now entering its fth decade, has reached such a point.
Forty years is a signicant span of activity, though not an extraordinary
oneLes Temps Modernes, from which NLR learnt a good deal in its early
days, has lasted much longer. But it is sufcient to call for an overhaul.
With this issue, we start a new series of the journal marked by a break of
numerals, in keeping with radical tradition, and a redesign of its appear-
ance, in token of changes to come. Charged for the moment with the
transition to another style of review, not to be achieved overnight, I set
out below my own view of the situation of NLR today, and the directions
it should begin to take. Billed as an editorial, the result is nonetheless a
personaland therefore provisionalstatement: open to contradiction.
So too will be the editorials that follow in each issue, written on topics
of their choice by others, without presumption of any automatic agree-
ment.
1
Any consideration of the future of NLR must start from its differentia
specica. What has made it distinctive as a journal of the Left? There
would be a number of ways of answering this, but the simplest and most
succinct is this. No other such review has attempted to publish across
the same range of terrainstretching from politics to economics to aes-
thetics to philosophy to sociologywith the same freedoms of length
and detail, where required. This span has never been evenly or regularly
explored, and the difculties of moving between such completely dis-
crepant registers of writing have consistently been scanted, to the cost
of even the most patient readers. But here is where the character of New
Left Review has effectively been dened. It is a political journal based in
London that has tried to treat social and moral sciencestheory, if you
willand arts and moresculture, for shortin the same historical
spirit as politics itself. The best way of grasping the present situation of
the review is to look back at the context in which the format of NLR was
originally conceived, that made possible the combination of these inter-
ests. The conjuncture of the early sixties, when the review took shape
under a new collective, offered the following features:
anderson: Editorial 3
t Politically, a third of the planet had broken with capitalism. Few
had any doubts about the enormities of Stalins rule, or the lack
of democracy in any of the countries that described themselves as
socialist. But the Communist bloc, even at its moment of division,
was still a dynamic realityIsaac Deutscher, writing in NLR, could
take the Sino-Soviet split as a sign of vitality.
1
Khrushchev, viewed
as a revolutionary romantic by current historians of Russia, held
out promise of reform in the USSR. The prestige of Maoist China
was largely intact. The Cuban Revolution was a new beacon in Latin
America. The Vietnamese were successfully ghting the United States
in South-East Asia. Capitalism, however stable and prosperous in its
Northern heartlands, wasand felt itself to beunder threat across
the larger part of the world outside them. Even at home, in Western
Europe and Japan, mass Communist movements were still ranged
against the existing order.
t Intellectually, the discredit of Stalinist orthodoxy after 1956 and
the decline of domestic Cold War conformity after 1958 released
a discovery process of suppressed leftist and Marxist traditions
that, in starved British conditions, took on aspects of a theoretical
fever. Alternative strands of a revolutionary Marxism linked to mass
politicsLuxemburgist, Trotskyist, Maoist, Council Communist
started to circulate. Simultaneously, the various legacies of a Western
Marxism born from the defeat of mass politicsfrom the era of
Lukcs, Korsch and Gramsci onwardsbecame available for recovery.
Crucial to the inuence of these Western traditions was its continuity
into the present: Sartre, Lefebvre, Adorno, Marcuse, Della Volpe,
Colletti, Althusser were contemporary authors, producing new texts
as NLR was sending its numbers to press. British isolation from such
continental patterns made sudden, concentrated encounter with them
all the headier.
t Culturally, exit from the conformist atmosphere of the fties was a
much broader phenomenon than this, and the rupture just as abrupt.
The two dominant markers of the period were the emergence of
rock music as a pervasive sound-wave of youth revolt, in contrast to
the generally saccharine output of the previous perioda popular
form laying claim to both aesthetic breakthrough and social upsurge.
1
Three Currents in Communism, NLR 23, JanFeb 1964.
4 nlr 1
Britain was itself the leading country in this transformation, whose
shock-effects were not yet routinized, as they later became. The second
critical shift was the emergence of auteur cinema, as conception and
project. Here the inuence of Cahiers du Cinema and the Nouvelle
Vague that came out of it was decisive. In this reception, the position
accorded classic Hollywood directors by French cineastes opened a
loop that dened much of the period. In effect, the new ascendance of
cinema and music set free a dialectic between high and low planes
of reference in the cultural life of the sixties that looks retrospectively
distinctive. Playful or serious, the ease of trafc between the twoan
absence of strainowed much to the most important theoretical
current of the time, aside from Marxism, which was structuralism.
The moment of the early Barthes or Lvi-Strauss (Mythologies or Tristes
Tropiques), bringing a common method to the study of each, was
critical for the mediation between high and low forms. Recuperating
the legacy of Russian formalism, this was a structuralism whose
concerns were still perfectly congruent with those of the cultural Left.
2
In this triple context, NLR undertook a range of programmes that at
the time were innovatory for the English-speaking world. Politically, the
review set its compass towards anti-imperalist movements in the Third
World, and while parochial reexes were still strong on the British Left,
gathered a team whose interests eventually spanned most of the world
Latin America, Black Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and the Far East
were all represented. At home, a set of distinctive arguments about the
UK was developed, which came to have a certain inuence. So when the
explosion of the late sixties, triggered by the war in Vietnam, occurred in
the Westrst student rebellion, then labour upsurgeNLR was well
placed to play some role in the ensuing tumult, and to gain an interna-
tional readership by the mid-seventies.
Intellectually, the journal devoted much of its energies to the introduc-
tion and critical reception of the different schools of Western Marxist
thought, a sufciently large enterprise to occupy it for over a decade.
Structuralism, formalism, psychoanalysis featured toocanonical texts
or sources often rst surfacing in its pages. On these fronts NLR was
well ahead of the surrounding culture, pioneering a more cosmopolitan
anderson: Editorial 5
and radical horizon of reference than was easily available elsewhere in
the Anglophone world.
Culturally, too, the review developed new styles of intervention, linking
interest in traditional arts to engagement with avant-garde forms, and
interventions on popular cinema or music. Peter Wollens famous series
on lm directors, orsayFranco Morettis Dialectic of Fear, exempli-
ed the freedom of movement between high and low terrains. The
initiatives released by this ferment escaped narrow classication. NLR
was premonitory both of the seventies rediscovery of feminism, and the
eighties rediscovery of work, in the same few years. It was a creative
period.
3
Four decades later, the environment in which NLR took shape has all
but completely passed away. The Soviet bloc has disappeared. Socialism
has ceased to be a widespread ideal. Marxism is no longer a dominant
in the culture of the Left. Even Labourism has largely dissolved. To
say that these changes are enormous would be an under-statement.
It cannot be maintained they reduced the review to silence. Each in
their fashion, writers associated with it have responded with spirit to
the conjuncture of 89. Texts in different registers would include Robin
Blackburns Fin-de-Sicle: Socialism After the Crash; Peter Wollens
Our Post-Communism: The Legacy of Karl Kautsky; Alexander Cock-
burns The Golden Age is Within Us; Fred Hallidays The Ends of Cold
War; Tom Nairns Faces of Nationalism; Benedict Andersons Radical-
ism after Communism; Tariq Alis Fear of Mirrors; and the list could
be lengthened.
2
It would be interesting to trace the variety of these reac-
tions, and of other contributors published by the review. Judgements of
each will differ. But as a whole the tradition of the journal acquitted itself
without dishonour.
Ten years after the collapse of Communism, however, the world has
moved on, and a condition of re-launching the review is some distinc-
2
Respectively: NLR 185, JanFeb 1991 (Blackburn); NLR 202, NovDec 1993
(Wollen); Verso 1994 (Cockburn); NLR 180, MarApr 1990 (Halliday); Verso 1997
(Nairn); NLR 202, NovDec 1993 (Anderson); Arcadia 1998 (Ali).
6 nlr 1
tive and systematic approach to its state today. What is the principal
aspect of the past decade? Put briey, it can be dened as the virtually
uncontested consolidation, and universal diffusion, of neo-liberalism.
This was not so widely predicted. If the years 198991 saw the destruc-
tion of Soviet-bloc Communism, it was not immediately obviouseven
to its championsthat unfettered free-market capitalism would sweep
the board in East or West. Many East European dissidents, West Euro-
pean progressives, North American conservatives, foresaw some kind of
re-balancing of the global landscapethe Left perhaps gaining a fresh
lease of life, once released from the crippling moral legacy of Stalinism,
and Japanese or Rhenish corporatism proving superior in both social
equity and economic efciency to Wall Street or the City. These were
not isolated beliefs, and could draw on authorities of distinction. As late
as 1998, Eric Hobsbawm and former Marxism Today writers were still
hopefully proclaiming the end of neo-liberalism.
3
In fact, the trend of the time has moved in the opposite direction. Five
inter-linked developments have changed the scene quite drastically:
t American capitalism has resoundingly re-asserted its primacy in all
eldseconomic, political, military, culturalwith an unprecedented
eight-year boom. However inated are asset values on Wall Street,
burdened with debt private households, or large the current trade
decits, there is little doubt that the underlying competitive position
of US business has been critically strengthened.
t European social-democracy, having taken power across the Union, has
responded to continent-wide slow growth and high unemployment
by across-the-board moves towards an American modelaccelerating
deregulation and privatization not only of industries but also social
services, often well beyond the limits of previous conservative regimes.
Britain had a head-start in deregulation, but Germany and Italy are
now bidding to catch up, and France lags more in words than deeds.
t Japanese capitalism has fallen into a deep slump, andalong with
Koreanis being gradually pressured to submit to deregulatory
standards, with increasing unemployment. Elsewhere in Asia, the
3
The Death of Neo-Liberalism, Marxism Today one-issue revenant, NovDec
1998.
anderson: Editorial 7
PRC is eager to enter the WTO at virtually any price, in the hope
that competitive pressures from foreign capital will weed out state
industries, without having itself to take responsibility for their fate;
while India is for the rst time now willingly dependent on the IMF.
t The new Russian economy, the weakest link in the global market
system, has provoked no popular backlash, despite catastrophic
regression in productive output and life-expectation. Stabilization
of its nancial oligarchy under a plebiscitary leadership, capable of
centralizing power and privatizing land, is now in prospect.
These are massive socio-economic changes, working their way across
the globe, which have already found canonization in Daniel Yergin and
Joseph Stanislaws enthusiastic survey The Commanding Heights. They
have been accompanied by two complementary, political and military,
shifts:
t Ideologically, the neo-liberal consensus has found a new point of
stabilization in the Third Way of the ClintonBlair regimes. The
winning formula to seal the victory of the market is not to attack, but
to preserve, the placebo of a compassionate public authority, extolling
the compatibility of competition with solidarity. The hard core of
government policies remains further pursuit of the ReaganThatcher
legacy, on occasion with measures their predecessors did not dare
enact: welfare reform in the US, student fees in the UK. But it is now
carefully surrounded with subsidiary concessions and softer rhetoric.
The effect of this combination, currently being diffused throughout
Europe, is to suppress the conictual potential of the pioneering
regimes of the radical right, and kill off opposition to neo-liberal
hegemony more completely. One might say that, by denition, TINA
only acquires full force once an alternative regime demonstrates that
there are truly no alternative policies. For the quietus to European
social-democracy or the memory of the New Deal to be consummated,
governments of the Centre-Left were indispensable. In this sense,
adapting Lenins maxim that the democratic republic is the ideal
political shell of capitalism, we could say that the Third Way is the best
ideological shell of neo-liberalism today. It is scarcely an accident that
the most ambitious and intransigent theorization of ultra-capitalism
as a global order, Thomas Friedmans The Lexus and the Olive-Tree,
should at the same time be a brazen paean to US world hegemony,
8 nlr 1
and an unconditional advocacy of Clintonism, under the slogan one
dare not be a globalizer today without being a social-democrat.
4
t Finally, the Balkan War has rounded off the decade with a military-
diplomatic demonstration of the ascendancy of this constellation.
Comparison with the Gulf War suggests how much stronger the New
World Order has become since the early nineties. Bush had to mobilize
a vast army to reverse the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, in the name of
protecting Western oil supplies and a feudal dynasty; without succeeding
in either overthrowing the regime in Baghdad, or drawing Russiastill
unpredictableinto the alliance against it. Clinton has bombed Serbia
into submission without so much as a soldier having to re a shot, in
the name of a moral imperative to stop ethnic cleansing, that is likely
to conclude in short order with a removal of the regime in Belgrade;
and brigaded Russia effortlessly into the occupation force as a token
auxiliary. Meanwhile China, after the destruction of its embassyon
the heels of a respectful visit by its Premier to the UShas cooperated
meekly in setting up a UN screen for the NATO protectorate in Kosovo,
and made clear that nothing will be allowed to disturb good relations
with Washington. For its part, the European Union is basking in a
new comradeship-in-arms with the United States, and joint purpose
in generous reconstruction of the Balkans. Victory in Kosovo has in
this sense not been just military and political. It is also an ideological
triumph, that sets a new standard for interventions on behalf of human
rightsas construed in Washington: Chechens or Palestinians need not
applyaround the world. The society created by the capitalist free-for-
all of the past twenty years was in need of a good conscience. Operation
Allied Force has provided it.
4
The intellectual atmosphere in the advanced countries, and extending
well beyond them, reects these changes. If the bulk of the Western
intelligentsia was always substantially satised with the status quo, with
4
The Lexus and the Olive-Tree, New York 1999, p. 354. In similar vein, Yergin and
Stanislaw end their glowing tour of the world-wide triumph of markets with a
concluding homage to Blairs great accomplishment in fusing social-democratic
values of fairness and inclusiveness with the Thatcherite economic programme:
The Commanding Heights, New York 1999, p. 390.
anderson: Editorial 9
a more restless and imaginative minority anking it to the right, the left
was still a signicant presence in most of the leading capitalist states
down through the eighties, even if there were important national vari-
ationsthe British becoming less conservative, as the French or Italians
became more so, and so forth. With the homogenization of the political
scene in the nineties, one would expect there to have been a Gleich-
schaltung of acceptable opinion as well. By the end of the decade, this has
gathered pace. If we look at the spectrum of what was the traditional
formerly socialistLeft, two types of reaction to the new conjuncture
predominate.
The rst is accommodation. In its hour of general triumph, capitalism
has convinced many who at one time believed it an avoidable evil that it is
a necessary and on balance salutary social order. Those who have rallied,
explicitly or tacitly, to the Third Way are obvious examples. But the range
of guises in which accommodation can be reached are much wider,
and are quite compatible with a sceptical or even derisive view of of-
cialBlumenthalCampbelloleographs of the new order: extending
from frank acknowledgement of a down-the-line superiority of private
enterprise, without mollifying embellishments, to simple dropping of
the subject of property regimes altogether. One consequence of the shift
in the ideological climate at large is that it becomes decreasingly neces-
sary even to express a position on these issues, as they fall outside the
perimeter of signicant debate. Clamorous renegacy is quite rare; the
commoner pattern is just changing the subject. But the depth of actual
accommodation can be seen from episodes like the Balkan War, where
the role of NATO was simply taken for granted, as a normal and desir-
able part of the political universe, by a wide band of opinion that would
not have dreamt of doing so ten or twenty years back. The underlying
attitude is: capitalism has come to stay, we must make our peace with it.
The second type of reaction can best be described as one of consola-
tion.
5
Here there is no unprincipled accommodationearlier ideals are
not abandoned, and may even be staunchly reafrmed. But faced with
5
It is a matter of logic that there is a third possible reaction to the turn of the time,
that is neither accommodation nor consolation: namely, resignationin other
words, a lucid recognition of the nature and triumph of the system, without either
adaptation or self-deception, but also without any belief in the chance of an alterna-
tive to it. A bitter conclusion of this kind is, however, rarely articulated as a public
position.
10 nlr 1
daunting odds, there is a natural human tendency to try and nd silver
linings in what would otherwise seem an overwhelmingly hostile envi-
ronment. The need to have some message of hope induces a propensity
to over-estimate the signicance of contrary processes, to invest inap-
propriate agencies with disinterested potentials, to nourish illusions in
imaginary forces. Probably none of us on the Left is immune to this
temptation, which can even claim some warrant from the general rule of
the unintended consequences owing from any historical transforma-
tionthe dialectical sense in which victories can unexpectedly generate
victors over them. It is also true that no political movement can survive
without offering some measure of emotional relief to its adherents,
which in periods of defeat will inevitably involve elements of psychologi-
cal compensation. But an intellectual journal has other duties. Its rst
commitment must be to an accurate description of the world, no matter
what its bearing on morale may be. All the more so, because there is
an intermediate terrain in which consolation and accommodation can
overlapthat is, wherever changes in the established order calculated
to fortify its hold are greeted as steps towards its loosening, or perhaps
even a qualitative transformation of the system. Russell Jacobys recent
End of Utopia offers trenchant reections on some of this.
5
What kind of stance should NLR adopt in this new situation? Its general
approach, I believe, should be an uncompromising realism. Uncompro-
mising in both senses: refusing any accommodation with the ruling
system, and rejecting every piety and euphemism that would understate
its power. No sterile maximalism follows. The journal should always
be in sympathy with strivings for a better life, no matter how modest
their scope. But it can support any local movements or limited reforms,
without pretending that they alter the nature of the system. What it
cannotor should notdo is either lend credence to illusions that the
system is moving in a steadily progressive direction, or sustain conform-
ist myths that it urgently needs to be shielded from reactionary forces:
attitudes on display, to take two recent examples, in the rallying to Prin-
cess and President by the bien-pensant left, as if the British monarchy
needed to be more popular or the American Presidency more protected.
Hysteria of this kind should be sharply attacked.
anderson: Editorial 11
Appeals to venerable traditions or established institutions toso to
speaklive up to their own standards, form a different sort of case. A
great deal of the best writing on the Left today seeks to take the ruling
conventions at their wordtreating ofcial hypocrisy, the gap between
word and deed, as the homage vice must pay to virtue, that promises a
happy ending. This was the approach classically favoured, and eloquently
practised, by the rst New Left. Many contributions to the journal will
continue to be couched in these terms, and should be judged on their
often considerablemerits. There is, however, a risk in this style of
address. The line between the desirable and the feasible may be left
unclear, allowing mystication about the realities of power, and what
can rationally be expected of it. It is best to leave no ambiguity here.
The test of NLRs capacity to strike a distinctive political note should be
how often it can calmly shock readers by calling a spade a spade, rather
than falling in with well-meaning cant or self-deception on the Left. The
spirit of the Enlightenment rather than the Evangelicals is what is most
needed today.
6
A decade does not make an epoch. The neo-liberal grand slam of the
nineties is no guarantee of perpetual power. In a longer historical per-
spective, a more sanguine reading of the time can be made. This, after
all, has also been a period in which the Suharto dictatorship has been
overthrown in Indonesia, clerical tyranny weakened in Iran, a venal oli-
garchy ousted in Venezuela, apartheid ended in South Africa, assorted
generals and their civilian relays brought low in Korea, liberation nally
won in East Timor. These were not movements that enjoyed the con-
dence of investors in the West, as the spring-time of peoples in Europe
had done. An optimistic view would take them as the seeds of a reckon-
ing to comethe latest acts of a continuing emancipation of nations that
constitutes the real process of democratization on a world scale, whose
outcome we can barely yet imagine. Another version would point rather
to the general weakening in the hierarchy of the sexes, with world-wide
pressures for womens emancipation, as the leading story of the age;
or to the growth in ecological consciousness, to which even the most
hardened states must now pay formal respect. Common to all these
visions is an intimation that capitalism may be invincible, but might
12 nlr 1
eventually prove solubleor forgettablein the waters of profounder
kinds of equality, sustainability and self-determination.
If so, such deeps still remain unfathomable. The spread of democracy
as a substitute for socialism, as hope or claim, is mocked by the hollow-
ing of democracy itself in its capitalist homelands, not to speak of its
post-communist adjuncts: steadily falling rates of electoral participation,
increasing nancial corruption, deadening mediatization. In general,
what is strong is not democratic aspiration from below, but the asphyxi-
ation of public debate and political difference by capital above. The force
of this order lies not in repression, but dilution and neutralization; and
so far, it has handled its newer challenges with equanimity. The gains
made by the feminist and ecological movements in the advanced world
are real and welcome: the most important elements of human progress
in these societies of the last thirty years. But to date they have proved
compatible with the routines of accumulation. Logically, a good measure
of political normalization has followed. The performance of feminists in
the United States, and Greens in Germanywhere each movement is
strongestin the service of Clintons regimen in the White House and
NATOs war in the Balkans speaks for itself.
This is not to say that any other force in the advanced capitalist countries
has shown a greater quotient of effective antagonism to the status quo.
With rare exceptionsFrance in the winter of 1995labour has been
quiescent for over twenty years now. Its condition is not a mere out-
come of economic changes or ideological shifts. Harsh class struggles
were necessary to subdue it in Britain as the United States. If somewhat
less cowed in Europe, workers still remain everywhere on the defensive.
The only starting-point for a realistic Left today is a lucid registration of
historical defeat. Capital has comprehensively beaten back all threats to
its rule, the bases of whose powerabove all, the pressures of competi-
tionwere persistently under-estimated by the socialist movement. The
doctrines of the Right that have theorized capitalism as a systemic order
retain their tough-minded strength; current attempts by a self-styled
radical Centre to dress up its realities are by comparison little more
than weak public relations. Those who always believed in the over-riding
value of free markets and private ownership of the means of production
include many gures of intellectual substance. The recent crop of bow-
dlerizers and beauticians, who only yesterday deplored the ugliness of
the system they primp today, do not.
anderson: Editorial 13
6
NLR 229, MayJune 1998; an expanded version will appear as a Verso book.
7
The New Collectivism, NLR 233, JanFeb 1999.
For the Left, the lesson of the past century is one taught by Marx. Its rst
task is to attend to the actual development of capitalism as a complex
machinery of production and prot, in constant motion. Robert Bren-
ners Economics of Global Turbulence, taking up an issue of NLR, sets
the appropriate example.
6
No collective agency able to match the power
of capital is yet on the horizon. We are in a time, as genetic engineering
looms, when the only revolutionary force at present capable of disturb-
ing its equilibrium appears to be scientic progress itselfthe forces of
production, so unpopular with Marxists convinced of the primacy of rela-
tions of production when a socialist movement was still alive. But if the
human energies for a change of system are ever released again, it will be
from within the metabolism of capital itself. We cannot turn away from
it. Only in the evolution of this order could lie the secrets of another one.
This is the sense of enquiries like those by Robin Blackburn in NLR into
the trend of nancial institutions.
7
There are no certainties here; so far,
all that is possible are proposals and conjectures.
7
Ideologically, the novelty of the present situation stands out in histori-
cal view. It can be put like this. For the rst time since the Reformation,
there are no longer any signicant oppositionsthat is, systematic rival
outlookswithin the thought-world of the West; and scarcely any on a
world scale either, if we discount religious doctrines as largely inopera-
tive archaisms, as the experiences of Poland or Iran indicate we may.
Whatever limitations persist to its practice, neo-liberalism as a set of
principles rules undivided across the globe: the most successful ideol-
ogy in world history. What this means for a journal like NLR is a radical
discontinuity in the culture of the Left, as itor if itrenews itself gen-
erationally. Nowhere is the contrast with the originating context of the
review sharper than in this respect. Virtually the entire horizon of ref-
erence in which the generation of the sixties grew up has been wiped
awaythe landmarks of reformist and revolutionary socialism in equal
measure. For most students, the roster of Bebel, Bernstein, Luxemburg,
Kautsky, Jaurs, Lukcs, Lenin, Trotsky, Gramsci have become names as
remote as a list of Arian bishops. How to reweave threads of signicance
14 nlr 1
between the last century and this would be one of the most delicate and
difcult tasks before any journal that took the term left seriously. There
seem to be few guide-posts for it.
If we look at the intellectual traditions closest in time and inuence to
the early NLR, the situation does not at rst look much better. Most of the
corpus of Western Marxism has also gone out of general circulation
Korsch, the Lukcs of History and Class Consciousness, most of Sartre and
Althusser, the Della Volpean school, Marcuse. What has survived best is
least directly political: essentially, post-war Frankfurt theory and selected
Benjamin. Domestically, Raymond Williams has been put out of court,
much as Wright Mills in America twenty years ago; Deutscher has disap-
peared; the name Miliband speaks of another time.
On the other hand, the history of ideas is not a Darwinian process. Major
systems of thought rarely disappear, as if they were so many species
become extinct. Though no longer seen within any coherent context,
strands of these traditions have continued to show remarkable vitality.
It could be said that British Marxist historiography has now achieved a
world readership, something it never knew before, with Hobsbawms
Age of Extremeswhich seems likely to remain the most inuential
single interpretation of the past century well into this one, as the over-
all history of a victory from the viewpoint of the vanquished. Jamesons
work on the postmodern, descending directly from Continental Marx-
ism, has no exact counterpart as a cultural version of the age. Robert
Brenner has provided the only coherent economic account of capitalist
development since the Second World War, Giovanni Arrighi the most
ambitious projection of its evolution in a longer timeframe. Tom Nairn
and Benedict Anderson are leading voices on the political ambiguities of
modern nationalism. Rgis Debray has developed one of the most sys-
tematic theories of the contemporary media now on offer. Terry Eagleton
in the literary eld, T. J. Clark in the visual arts, David Harvey in the
reconstruction of geography, are central gures for all concerned with
these disciplines.
It is enough to list such names to see that no forcible unication of them
into a single paradigm is conceivable. The span of different methods,
interests and accents is far too wide. If that is in part a consequence
of the fragmentation of the culture of the Left, it is also an expression of
a creative disinhibition and diversication of lines of enquiry. Respect-
anderson: Editorial 15
ing these, the review should seek to present an intelligible landscape,
in which such bodies of work have an accessible relationship to one
another.
At the same time, there is a wider intellectual spectrum with few or no
Marxist origins, dening itself as loosely on the left, that is in move-
ment today. Taking the elds of philosophy, sociology and economics, it
would include the work of Habermas, Derrida, Barry; Bourdieu, Mann,
Runciman; Stiglitz, Sen, Dasgupta. Here criss-crossing shifts of position
can be seen, previously moderate thinkers becoming radicalized as neo-
liberal hegemony has become more absolute, while others once more
radical have become reconciled to elements of the conventional wisdom.
But more signicant than these eddies is a common feature of much of
this range of work: the combination of bold intellectual ambition and
broad disciplinary synthesis with timorous or truistic commitments in
the political eld itselfa far cry from the robust and passionate world
of Weber, Keynes or Russell. Here the consequences of the uprooting of
all the continuities of a socialist tradition, however indirectly related to,
are very visible. The result is typically a spectacle of impressive theoreti-
cal energy and productivity, whose social sum is signicantly less than
its intellectual parts.
By contrast, commanding the eld of direct political constructions of
the time, the Right has provided one uent vision of where the world
is going, or has stopped, after anotherFukuyama, Brzezinski, Hunt-
ington, Yergin, Luttwak, Friedman. These are writers that unite a single
powerful thesis with a uent popular style, designed not for an academic
readership but a broad international public. This condent genre, of
which America has so far a virtual monopoly, nds no equivalent on
the Left. There, at best, normative schemes of a cosmopolitan democ-
racy or law of peoples, bracketing or euphemizing the actual course of
things, remain the lame alternative. NLR has not engaged much with
either. This ought to be one of its priorities. It is unlikely the balance of
intellectual advantage will alter greatly before there is a change in the
political correlation of forces, which will probably remain stable so long
as there is no deep economic crisis in the West. Little short of a slump
of inter-war proportions looks capable of shaking the parameters of the
current consensus. But that is no reason to mark timepolemical or
analyticalin the interim.
16 nlr 1
8
The cultural scene, too, bears little resemblance to that in which the early
NLR ourished. Three major changes have dened the interval. First, there
has been a massive displacement of dominance from verbal to visual codes,
with the primacy of television over every preceding means of communi-
cation, followed by the rise of subsequent electronic media in which the
same shift has been technologically replicated. This pattern has, of course,
dened the arrival of postmodern forms at large. Secondlyanother hall-
mark of the lattermost of the tension between deviant or insurgent
impulses from below and the established order above has been absorbed,
as the market has appropriated and institutionalized youth culture in much
the same way it earlier encapsulated avant-garde practices: butthis being
a mass marketmuch more thoroughly. The commodity apotheosis of
idols like Jackson or Jordan are the upshot. Thirdly, the voltage connect-
ing high and low systems, whose circuit was such a feature of the modern
period, has been shorted as the distance that was a condition of it has
tended to collapse. The effect is mutual caricature, as the two converge on
common terrain: slumming at the Royal Academy, and pretention at the
OscarsSensation and Dreamworks as obverse forms of kitsch. Literature,
dragged into the same vortex by prize-money and publicity budgets, gener-
ates Eco or late Rushdie.
For the journal, it is the critical side of the situation that matters. Here the
pattern on the side of production has been inverted. Where once there was
lively interchange between high and low levels, a polarization has occurred
that tends to leave each sealed in hypertrophied discourses of their own.
Thus high forms have fallen prey to tortuous routines of philosophical
deconstruction, while popular forms have become the playground of cul-
tural studies of a sub-sociological type. Each has origins in radical lines
of work in the late fties and sixties: Hoggart and Williams on one side,
Bataille to Derrida on the other. Formally speaking, the respective muta-
tions continue to identify themselves, for the most part, with the Left:
indeed, in grander momentsas critics on the Right are quick to point
outvirtually as the Left, at any rate in America. What they too often
amount to, however, is a choice between obscurantism and populism,
orstill worsea mixture of the two, parading a weird blend of the dema-
gogic and apolitical.
anderson: Editorial 17
Obscurantism as wilful impediment of meaning has few defenders.
Populism, on the other hand, is sometimes thought to have progressive
potential. But if we set aside its legendary origins in Russia, where the
Narodniks would be regarded by current standards as thoroughly elitist,
what populism typically means today is faking an equality of condition
between voters, readers or viewersthat does not exist, the better to pass
over actual inequalities of knowledge or literacy: ground on which a cynical
right and pious left all too easily meet. It is thus not surprising that of the
two hermeneutics on offer, cultural studies is currently the more inuen-
tial, and in its deteriorated forms the main obstacle to any recreation of
an unselfconscious sense of movement between high and low. Commend-
able exercises in the analysis of mass culture are not lacking, in which the
original intentions behind the HoggartWilliams line have continued. All
too many, however, of the progeny of the Birmingham School have lurched
towards an uncritical embrace of the market as zestful fount of popular
culture. In these conditions, the role of NLR should be to bend the stick
resolutely in the opposite direction, while avoiding any neo-Leavisite over-
tones. Julian Stallabrasss contributions to the review have struck a requisite
note, engaging critically both with the newest electronic media, at the level
of the games arcade, and with the newest British painting, as itin every
senseplays to the gallery.
In any radical journal, tension is always likely between two forms of
criticism, equally necessary yet markedly distinct. One can think of these
as, roughly speaking, avant-garde and hegelian approaches to cul-
turethe rst committed to staking out an aggressive, even if one-sided
imperative stance, the second to deciphering in more indicative mood
the historical or philosophical intelligibility of a wider scene: Clement
Greenberg and Fredric Jameson as respective virtuosos. The two styles
are not exclusive, and the review should encourage both. The need for
one or the other varies, inevitably, according to topic or conjuncture. In
an area like the cinema, earnest reections on the meaning of the latest
box-ofce hit from Hollywood or Elstree, even if well-aimed, are a waste
of NLRs space, compared with treatment of directors, above all outside
the Anglophone world, who are short of attention or difcult to see. For,
counter-balancing the negative developments in the metropolitan zone
of the past period, there has been one enormous cultural gain at large
the multiplication of peripheral producers in Asia, Africa, the Middle
East, Latin America. This is very poorly covered in the West, and should
be a priority for the Left to address. One good text on Hou Hsiao-Hsien,
18 nlr 1
Kiarostami, Sembene, Leduc is worth a hundredno matter how criti-
calon Spielberg or Coppola. A sequence along these lines, extended
to the new European cinema (Amelio, Reitz, Jacquot, Zonca), would be
the natural successor to Peter Wollens path-breaking series in the early
NLR.
More generally, the kind of literary geography Franco Moretti has been
developing, because it focuses on the market as well as the morphology
of forms, provides a natural bridge between elite and mass zones of cul-
ture, as well as, most recently, an outward turn to global systems that
offers a model of another kind. In all elds, NLR should try to counter
the provincialismactually, narcissismof the English-speaking world,
by focusing, if necessary more than proportionately, on non-Anglophone
works and producers. One of the most striking features of the current
English scene (a fortiori American too) is that although foreign lan-
guages, literatures and politics are much more widely learnt in schools
and universities than they were twenty years ago, the cultural references
of the newest generationseven at their most sophisticatedare often
narrower, because the hegemony of Hollywood, CNN and Bookerism
has increased exponentially in the interim. A glance at the slipstream of
current journalistic fashions is enough to register the paradox. In keep-
ing with its tradition, the review should resist this involution.
9
Editing a journal with this set of concerns has always been a tightrope
affair. To achieve a balance between such disparate elds as the eco-
nomic and the aesthetic, the sociological and the philosophical, would
be tricky enough in itself. Here they come together, by the nature of the
review, under the primacy of the political, that poses its own problems
of denition and selection. The order of the journal tacitly reects its
organizing focus, editorials or lead articles normally dealing with inter-
national issues of the day. NLR remains rst and foremost a political
journal, outside any polite consensus or established perimeters of opin-
ion. But this is not a politics that absorbs the domains it touches on.
The culture of any society always exceeds the spectrum of politics active
within it, as a reservoir of meanings of which only a delimited range
have to do with the distribution of power, that is the object of political
anderson: Editorial 19
8
The outstanding argument for the asymmetry of culture and politics is to be
found in Francis Mulhern, The Present Lasts a Long Time, Cork 1998, pp. 67, 5253,
a book to which the review will return in a forthcoming issue.
action.
8
An effective politics respects that excess. Attempts to conscript
any theoretical or cultural eld for instrumental purposes will always be
futile or counter-productive. That does not mean indifference. The Left
needs a cultural politics; but what that signies rst of all is a widening
of the limits of its own culture. It follows that NLR will publish articles
regardless of their immediate relationship, or lack of it, to familiar radi-
cal agendas.
A major change of the past epoch, often remarked upon, has been the
widespread migration of intellectuals of the Left into institutions of
higher learning. This developmenta consequence not only of changes
in occupational structure, but of the emptying-out of political organ-
izations, the dumbing-down of publishing houses, the stunting of
counter-culturesis unlikely to be soon reversed. It has brought with
it, notoriously, specic tares. Edward Said has recently drawn attention
sharply to some of the worst of thesestandards of writing that would
have left Marx or Morris speechless. But academization has taken its
toll in other ways too: needless apparatuses, more for credential than
intellectual purposes, circular references to authorities, complaisant self-
citations, and so on. Wherever appropriate, NLR aims to be a scholarly
journal; but not an academic one. Unlike most academicnot to speak
of otherjournals today, it does not shove notes to the end of articles, or
resort to sub-literate Harvard references, but respects the classical cour-
tesy of footnotes at the bottom of the page, as indicators of sources or
tangents to the text, immediately available to the reader. Where they are
necessary, authors can be as free with them as Moretti is in this issue.
But mere proliferation for its own sake, a plague of too many submis-
sions today, will not pass. It should be a matter of honour on the Left to
write at least as well, without redundancy or clutter, as its adversaries.
The journal will feature a regular book-review section, and encourage
polemical exchange. NLR has always enjoyed an undeserved compara-
tive advantage in the language in which it is published, since English has
a world-wide audience that no other idiom possesses. By way of com-
pensation, it should try to bring to the notice of its readers important
works that are not published in English, as well as those that are. The
20 nlr 1
reviews in this issue offer an improvised sample of what we might do. Of
polemics in its pages, the journal has traditionally had too few. We hope
to change this. The current number contains a pair, as will the next.
Here, as elsewhere, the criterion is not political correctness, however
construed, but originality and vigour of argument. There is no require-
ment of contributors that they be conventionally of the Leftthere are
many areas, perhaps especially in the eld of international relations,
where arguments against standard progressive pieties, usually shared by
pillars of respectable liberalism, are superior to them. The most devas-
tating criticisms of the expansion of NATO and the war in the Balkans
often came from the Right. The review should welcome interventions
like these. By contrast, surplus to requirements are apologia for ofcial
policies from the Left, of which quite a few were to be heard as the B52s
took off for Kuwait or Kosovo. These are available any day in the estab-
lishment press. The value of polemical exchange here should be to lie
clear of this chloroformed zone.
Finally, a word on location. NLR was a journal conceived in Britain, a
state we must hope will not last much longer, for the reasons trench-
antly set out by Tom Nairn. It has had much to say about the UK, and
will not stop now. At the same time, many of its editors today live or
work in the US, about which the journal has also published a good deal.
Over two decades, writing on America by Mike Davisits most consist-
ent contributorhas left an indelible mark. There is also the European
background that stimulated most of the initiating ideas of the review.
The scope of NLR has always been wider than this Western base-line.
But while the journal has covered the rest of the worldThird and
Second, as well as First, while these terms still heldfor better or worse
according to period, its writers have continued to come essentially from
its homelands. This we would like to change. The time should come
when the contributors to NLR are as extra-Atlantic as its contents. For
the moment, that is out of reach. But it is a horizon to bear in mind.
new left review 1 jan feb 2000 21
r. taggart murphy
J APAN S ECONOMI C
CRI SI S
J
apans troubles have persisted now for nearly a decade. That
the worlds second largest economy and leading net creditor
should remain mired in seemingly endless stagnation/recession
confounds policy makers and observers around the globe. And
their fears over the consequences have deepened since the onset of the
developing world crisis in July 1997. It is evident that the United States
alone cannot generate sufcient demand to pull the developing world
out of the doldrumsthat it requires the assistance of other leading
economic powers. With a Europe preoccupied for the time being with
its new currency, the only sizeable power left to help the United States
propel the world forward is Japan. Yet far from being part of the solu-
tion, Japan appears to be a big part of the problem.
Complaints about Japan have become numbingly familiar. According
to widely accepted conventional wisdom, Tokyos inability or unwilling-
ness to come up with a growth-restoring policy-mix blocks recovery in
Asia. Japans consumers do not spend on imports; its companies, facing
weak demand at home and insulated from the pressure of nancial mar-
kets to exit unprotable lines of business, dump production abroad,
squeezing out developing world competitors. The countrys imploding
banking system has become a kind of black hole of global nance, suck-
ing in liquidity that ought to be going to poorer countries to fuel growth.
Meanwhile, concerns that a sudden stock market reversal in the United
States could bring the American expansion to a halt exacerbate worries
about Japan. For without a Japan to pick up some of the slack, as it were,
we would truly be staring global recession in the face.
1
22 nlr 1
What particularly frustrates so many non-Japanese is the sense that
Japans policy challenges, while severe, are neither novel nor mysteri-
ous. The policy recipe urged on Tokyo is pretty straightforward: scal
stimulus and monetary expansion; the closing down of sick nancial
institutions combined with recapitalization of the rest; dismantling of
anti-competitive regulations and cartels; reforms of corporate governance
and nancial markets that force companies to become more protable
or face bankruptcy or takeover. Most observers acknowledge that this
policy mix could cause political difculties for any government that tried
to carry it out. At the same time, it appears no more onerous than the
restructuring of the American economy in the 1980s or the measures
implemented in a number of European countries in order to qualify for
membership in the euro bloc. Japans failure to act seems to boil down
to a simple lack of political courage.
The result has been increasingly testy foreign pressure on Japanmuch
of it, although by no means all, emanating from Washington. It is
common knowledge that the Japanese elite often relies on so-called
gaiatsu (foreign pressure) to provide political cover for unpopular but
necessary change. Indeed, the June 1998 meetings in Tokyo of central
bankers and deputy nance ministers from eighteen countries are a case
in point. Japan found itself totally isolated, pressed on all sides to take
the necessary measures to stimulate its economy and heal its banking
system. The meetings may have even contributed to the ruling Liberal
Democratic Partys (LDP) losses in the next months elections for the
Upper House, and the subsequent replacement of the Hashimoto cabi-
net with a cabinet under Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi that gave the
initial impression of being prepared to do what it took. Certainly, much
of the impetus behind the sixty trillion yen bank bailout package, the
seventeen trillion yen stimulus package, and the de facto nationaliza-
tion of several important banks can be traced to these meetings. Yet they
were actually arranged by Japans Ministry of Finance (MOF), leading to
accusations in the Japanese media that they had been deliberately staged
to produce a loud chorus of foreign pressure on Japan, thereby providing
political cover for an about-face by Japans policy elite.
2
1
Originally presented as a paper at the Centre for Social Theory and Comparative
History at UCLA, this article will appear in Robert Brenner (ed.), The New World
Economic Disorder, Verso forthcoming.
2
For example Kinkyutsuka Kaigi Seimei, Shingen Nihon no Sekinin Tou: Fuan
no Rensahadome? (Declaration from Emergency Currency Meeting; Inquiring
murphy: Japan 23
More, however, lurks behind the exasperation with Japanat least in
Washingtonthan simple resentment at having to play the perennial
heavy in an unending political drama that a supposedly mature indus-
trial democracy should no longer need to stage. Indeed, if gaiatsu were
all it took to elicit the changes Washington wants to see, Larry Summers
and Bill Clinton would no doubt be happy to endure the painlessfor
themslings and arrows of the Japanese mass media in applying what-
ever pressure is required. Japans is not the rst governmentnor will
it be the lastto nd foreign pressure a convenient cover for imple-
menting much-needed domestic change: witness the deft ends to which
the Italians have employed the Maastricht Treaty obligations, or South
Korean President Kim Dae Jungs handling of the IMF requirements
imposed on his country. Rather, what seems to produce widespread
indignation with Japanand this indignation is certainly not conned
to Washingtonis the sense that the Japanese elite does not realize how
bad things are, that it is kidding itself. How else to explain the incredu-
lity with which the consumption tax increase of April 1997 was greeted
in policy circleswhat are these people doing raising taxes? Dont they
know their economy is at on its back? Or the increasing shrillness
with which well-known economists such as Paul Krugman and Andrew
Smithers berate Japans monetary authorities from the pages of the
Financial Times?
3
Response of Japanese ofcialdom
Maybe we ought to stop for a moment, therefore, and ask ourselves why
Japanese elite ofcials act as if they believe that Japans economic plight
is not so bad after all. Could it be that they are right; that Japans eco-
nomic situation is not so terrible? This seems like a stupid question.
The numbers coming out of Tokyo do not lie. Unemployment and
bankruptcies are at their post-1940s peaks. GNP shrank in 1998, and
the poor third-quarter numbers for 1999 suggest that the high growth
rates recorded in the rst half of the year were indeed, as many had
on Epicenter Japans Responsibility: Halting the Chain Reaction?) Nihon Keizai
Shimbun, 21 June 1998. For an English language account from the same news
organization (Japans leading provider of news on business and nance) see Japan
Faces Dangerous Isolation, The Nikkei Weekly, 6 July 1998.
3
Paul Krugman Personal View: Japan heads for the edge, Financial Times, 20
January 1999. See also letters to the same newspaper from Andrew Smithers on 11
November 1998; 15 January 1999; 21 January 1999.
24 nlr 1
feared, simply the one-off products of huge dollops of public spending
rather than signals of any fundamental turnaround. Repeated attempts
to jumpstart the Japanese economy with such spending have saddled
the country with a government decit which, as a percentage of GNP, is
among the highest in the OECD. The Tokyo Stock Exchange languished
for nearly a decade in the grip of one of the most vicious and protracted
bear markets of the century; even the recovery that set in early in 1999
is simply taking it back to levels that a few years ago would have been
regarded as disastrously low. Real estate prices have fallen more than 60
per cent from their late 1980s peak, with no oor in sight; most of the
nations banks would be insolvent if Japan followed Western account-
ing standards. And to top it off, we have seen over the past year spikes
in both interest rates and the yen. While interest rates have come back
down, the forces that led to the spikes are still there; if higher interest
rates return or the yen does not soon weaken again, a range of Japanese
manufacturers that have been kept alive since the mid nineties on the
life support of a weak currency and extremely low interest rates will not
survive.
Yet the sense remains that, irrespective of whatever political difculties
may stand in the way of getting the country moving again, Japans policy
elite doesnt really think things are that bad. How could this be? Lets
dismiss the notion right away that these people are stupid. Stupidity
might serve to explain why they are not doing what Paul Krugman
thinks they should do, but it doesnt square with the facts. This is the
same policy elite with the same educational and social backgrounds
that guided the country from complete devastation to the front rank of
the worlds industrial powers in less than three decades. In any intel-
ligence test one cared to use, the bureaucrats who staff the Ministry of
Finance (MOF), the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI),
the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and the Economic Planning Agency, together
with the upper management ranks of Japans corporate and banking
hierarchies, could hold their own against their counterparts anywhere.
Nor is their information faulty; public accounting standards in Japan
may leave something to be desired and outside investors certainly fret
at their inability to grasp the real nancial situation of Japans banks
and corporations, but MOF bureaucrats know exactly what is going on
inside the countrys nancial institutions. For the MOF controls bank
funding powers, the opening of branches, the hiring of personnel, and
approvals for all nancial products. It has engineered every single bank
murphy: Japan 25
merger since the 1930s. Japanese bankers do very little without MOF
blessing; indeed Japanese banks can be regarded essentially as institu-
tions charged with the execution of MOF policies.
4
So stupidity or faulty information doesnt help us explain why the Japanese
elite acts as if it werent really sure it faced a crisis. Maybe they privately
know how bad things are, but dont want to give the impression of
panic. On the surface, this seems like a reasonable hypothesis. If ordinary
Japanese households sensed panic in their leaders, if the currency and
equity markets saw a policy elite sick with worry, it could only make things
worse. Central bankers and nancial regulators are expected everywhere
to project serene, unappable condence; market participants monitor
their every twitch for signs of anything else. But this theory falls apart the
moment one actually looks at the measures taken by Tokyos policy elite.
Far from giving the impression of attempting to project masterful con-
trol, these people act openly as if they dont quite know what to do about
problems that they are not convinced are all that urgent. Everyone points
ngers, yells at them to do something; since this nger pointing comes
from their most important allies and foreign customersand now from
sizeable domestic constituencies, with the capacity to make troublethey
know they must respond. Yet because these problems seem to them fun-
damentally unrealor at least beside the pointtheir policy response
lacks coherence. How else to explain such seemingly monumental policy
errors as the consumption tax hike of April 1997? The dithering on the
bad debt problems, when the dimensions have been clear to everyone
since 1992 at the latest? The mule-like obstinacy of the BOJ in refusing to
spring the liquidity jaws that seem to have trapped Japan, notwithstand-
ing a domestic and international chorus of economists and policy makers
urging the deliberate creation of inationary expectations? The about-face
on government purchases of the bonds being issued to nance the latest
bank bailout and stimulus packages? First the MOF says its Trust Fund
Bureau wont be buying the new bonds, creating a bond-market panic and
driving long-term interest rates up; a few weeks later, it reverses course
and says that after all it will mop the excess debt.
4
Akio Mikuni writes in Japan: The Road to Recovery, Occasional Papers #55
(Washington: Group of Thirty 1998), p. 33, The MOF has absolute power over
Japans nancial institutions thanks to a licensing system that accords licensees
the status of little more than subordinate, quasi-public institutions. Mikuni is the
founder and president of Mikuni & Co. Ltd., Japans only independent, investor-
supported bond rating agency.
26 nlr 1
Taken together, Tokyos policy moves paint a portrait of befuddlement,
uncertainty and serious internal rifts. Banking crises are the nancial
equivalent of res; one expects alarm, panic, remen rushing to the
scene; what one doesnt expect are groups of obviously capable remen
standing around debating whether there really is or isnt a re; if there
is, should we use water to put it out, or might we run out of water, so
maybe it would be better to try one of these new chemical extinguish-
ersexcept the bill for that would be too high? In the meantime, a whole
eld of bystanders jumps up and down shouting, Put out the bloody re
before it burns our houses too! So the remen feel they must look busy
but dont really do very much.
Viewing the world from Tokyo
Maybe Tokyos remen have other things on their minds. Their behav-
iour may mystify Wall Street and neoclassically trained economists,
but Japans policy elite is not primarily concerned with the factors that
usually preoccupy ofcials in capitalist countries: market condence,
corporate prots, sound banks, stable prices, rising living standards.
Other things being equal, its nice to have these things, but even a cur-
sory look at the history of Japans policy preoccupations show that other
things are more important. Take something as unexceptional as sound
banking, for exampleseemingly as uncontroversial as motherhood.
Sound banking implies prudent lending: lending directed towards sol-
idly protable borrowers that doesnt nance overcapacity. It implies
proper matching between assets and liabilitiesin other words, that
banks dont use short-term funding to nance long-term lendingand
concern with adequate capital cushions. Yet Japanese banks not only
paid little attention to such matters; at numerous times during the post-
war era they had been actively encouraged by the authorities to make
funds available to borrowers who showed no signs of protability, and
to nance overcapacity in a host of industries from automobiles to semi-
conductors. They were encouraged to fund long-term loans to these
sectors with a mixture of short-term deposits and borrowing in the so-
called call money market (Japans short-term interbank market), with
shortfalls made up by the BOJ. When, in the early 1980s, the more
nancially stable Japanese corporates began to reduce their reliance on
bank funding, the authorities looked the other way as the banks began
to shovel loans at lesser quality developers and stock market specula-
torsindeed, the authorities deliberately used the banks to push vast
murphy: Japan 27
amounts of credit into an overheated economy, creating in the late 1980s
the greatest nancial bubble in history. Regulators in most countries
urgeor requiretheir banks to maintain thick capital cushions; back in
the mid-1980s, at the so-called BIS negotiations to determine universal
bank capital standards, Japans ofcials argued that their banks did not
need such thick cushions.
5
Today, these same ofcials openly connive
with the banks to make the cushions look thicker than they actually are.
It is tempting to say that after all Japans regulators really must be stupid;
that they dont know how to administer a modern nancial system.
Resisting this temptation has proven too much for an army of commen-
tatorssome of whom ought to know betterindulging themselves in
a veritable orgy of gloating over Japans current difculties. But all this
triumphalism misses the point; sound banking as dened in the West
has never been a policy objective for Japans elite, any more than get-
ting prices right or properly functioning markets for labour, consumer
goods, corporate control and housing.
What, then, have their policy objectives been? Answering this question
requires doing something quite unfashionable in todays ahistorical,
ageographical, model-fetishizing intellectual worldpaying attention to
history and to institutions; in this case, Japans modern history and the
bureaucratic power structures that determine policy there.
This is not the place to give Japans modern history and institutions
the treatment they deservesuch an enterprise would require several
lifetimes of scholarly work and occupy many thousands of pages. But
at the risk of sounding simplistic and reductionist, two points must be
emphasized. First, Japan was what might be called a catch-up developer,
obsessed with avoiding what had been the fate of most of the non-West-
ern worldcolonization. And second, Japan has not experienced what
classical Marxists would term a genuine revolutionone class overturn-
ing anothersince the twelfth century, when a rising class of provincial
5
The reference is to the Bank for International Settlements under whose aegis
international bank-capital standards were worked out. By March 1993 banks were
to have raised the minimum ratio of capital to total assets to 8%, with at least half
this capitalso-called Tier Oneto consist of equity and retained earnings. A spe-
cial exception was made for Japanese banks, permitting them to count 45% of the
difference between the book value of their equity holdings and the market value of
these securities towards their capital requirements.
28 nlr 1
warriors usurped the prerogatives of a sclerotic centralized aristocracy.
(The Meiji Restoration, while hugely important, was, in the last analysis,
a struggle between elements of the ruling elite. The feudal character of
power relations in the preceding Tokugawa era survived the Restoration
essentially intact and indeed continues in some form to this day.)
Lets start with the catch-up developer. Catch-up developers from
Bismarks Germany to Park Chung Hees Korea conceive as the overrid-
ing aim of economic policy not living standards and market condence
but the building of the infrastructures of an advanced economy. If a
steel industry is a prerequisite for an advanced economy, then policy
makers in catch-up developers will do what it takes to ensure their
country has a steel industry, even if that means bank loans to unprot-
able companies at subsidized rates and agrant violations of Ricardian
free-trade norms. Japan, of course, is the paradigmatic example of a
catch-up developer, but there is even more to it than that. Japans fran-
tic and successful attempts to avoid colonization in the late nineteenth
century led to forced development of industries essential to warmaking,
a process that accelerated with the invasion of China in 1933 and the
subsequent war with the United States. Once the war ended, Japans
economic bureaucracies put the institutions of forced development to
work, rst in the service of those industries deemed essential to postwar
recovery and then to transforming Japan into an industrial power of the
rst rank.
Japans economic administrators therefore judge their performance
by the criteria of the countrys technological prowess and industrial
strength. Anyone who has spent any time in Japan or done business
with Japanese companies knows that the Japanese are obsessed with
the relative standing on global markets of their manufactured products
in terms of cost, quality and technological advancement. The prot-
ability or price-earnings ratios of the manufacturers themselves have
been, until very recently, almost irrelevanteven meaningless. But on
top of this concern with brute industrial strengthnatural in a country
whose entire modern history essentially constitutes a desperate quest to
avoid domination by capricious foreigners whose motives could never
be trustedhas been the unique legacy of a political and social order
that has not been overturned in its most fundamental aspects for 800
years. For that legacy brings with it the unspoken fear that an overturn-
ing might someday happen. Japan did in fact narrowly escape revolution
murphy: Japan 29
in the 1870s and again in the late 1940s.
6
Thus we see the obsession on
the part of Japans governing class with the maintenance of social peace,
and a nearly pathological aversion to anything that potentially threatens
disorder or a loss of control. Indeed, Japans 125-year-long drive for tech-
nological self-sufciency and overwhelming industrial might is really
part and parcel of the overall efforts to neutralize any threat to the exist-
ing order. For ever since the Portuguese appeared in Japanese waters
in 1543 with their warships, their guns and their subversive religion,
foreigners have represented arguably the biggest single source of such
threats. In 1854, a 250-year-old effort to isolate Japan from the world col-
lapsed; and 1945 saw the utter ruin of attempts to use military means in
order to force foreigners to deal with the country on its terms. Japans
administrators have thus been left with the single tool of economic policy
in trying to control relations with the outside world.
The 1990sa Japanese perspective
Looked at from the perspectives of industrial might and social order,
then, the 1990s presents much more of a mixed picture than do the
standard measurements of GNP growth, corporate prots and unem-
ployment rates. To be sure, even when seen through the eyes of Tokyos
policy elite, the picture is not good. Uncertainties once thought resolved
have returned with greater force. Demands for changefrom both inside
and outside Japanhave increased in volume and frequency. After two
decades of technological leadership, the country nds itself again a fol-
lower in the most widely touted new industries. Formerly reliable policy
tools no longer work as they used to. Doubts proliferate about the ability
of Japans administrators to honour all the promises made to disparate
groups in the country that have the capacity to make trouble.
At the same time, neither is the picture wholly bleak. In a wide range
of manufactured products, Japanese companies can still provide higher
quality goods at lower costs than their competitors anywhere. Japanese
dominance of key industrial components is so great that it is no more pos-
sible these days to run an industrial economy without buying goods from
Japan than to do so without buying petroleum. Complex machines
6
See Andrew Gordons account of the erce and often violent struggles for control
of the workplace, to use his term, in the immediate postwar years in The Wages of
Afuence: Labor and Management in Postwar Japan, Cambridge, Mass. 1998.
30 nlr 1
computers, automobiles, aircraftcannot be built without Japanese
components. For all its nancial troubles, the country still commands
the worlds largest pool of savings and remains the number one net cred-
itor. Indeed, that is why Japans difculties so exercise central bankers
and nance ministers around the worldif Japan were a poor country
with few savings, who would care?
Japans administrators are clearly under pressure. But at the same time,
stretched as they may be, I think they believe that they still command
the resources to cope with threats to the existing order, whether those
originate from irate foreign countries or increasingly restive domestic
groups. Indeed, one could make a convincing case that both internation-
ally and domestically, those threats have receded somewhat in the last
three years. A Clinton administration that came to ofce determined to
force change on Japan and overhaul chronic American payments decits
with Tokyo essentially gave up pushing structural reform in the fall of
1998 with the tacit endorsement of the bank bailout and stimulus pack-
ages at the expense of the earlier much-hyped reform efforts. And since
early 1999, believing that no other alternative to a disastrous Japanese
economic collapse exists, Washington has sent several signals that it
is once again prepared to accept a further widening of Japans record
trade and current account surpluses. Meanwhile, at home, the most far-
reaching attempt in fty years to impose political control over Japans
governing bureaucracy shows every sign of having run out of steam.
The Liberal Democratic Party, which has long traded political cover for
the bureaucracy and non-interference in bureaucratic policy making in
return for funding to feed its principal power basesthe countryside
and the bloated construction sectorhas succeeded, at least for the time
being, in neutralizing the rst signicant opposition it had faced since
1960. This is an opposition that had, back in 1993, actually managed
to turn the LDP out of ofce for a few months with a programme of
imposing political control over the bureaucracy. But the prospect scared
too many inuential groups in Japanthe bureaucrats themselves, of
course, but also the quality newspapers which fundamentally determine
what passes for public opinion in Japan. And the LDPbureaucracy
nexus now appears completely in charge again.
Which doesnt mean they dont face severe challengesor that they have
any unied notion of how to respond to them; but understanding the
likely policy responses to these challenges means making the effort to
see them through the eyes of Japans policy elite.
murphy: Japan 31
Loss of technological leadership
Reviewing some of the biggest of these challenges, we could start with
the loss of technological leadership in such industries as computers
and telecommunications. This has had a profoundly demoralizing effect
on Japans administrative elitemore so, I would suspect on the basis
of my conversations in Tokyo, than such widely publicized problems
as the banking crisis and the exploding scal decits. For by the late
1980s, Japans policy elite believed they had achieved their century-long
goal of an advanced industrial structure wholly under Japanese con-
trolthus forcing the outside world to deal with Japan on its terms,
rather than the reverse. But the unexpected resurgence of American
industry in the 1990sparticularly the growth of industries clustered
around software, the internet and the personal computermeant that,
at their moment of triumph, Japanese companies found they did not
after all control the direction of markets in the most important new
industries. Indeed, Japanese semi-conductor and computer components
companies grumble that they have been reduced to the status of price-
takers; that Dell, Compaq and Cisco treat them the way they treat their
second- and third-tier subcontractors in Japan. Meanwhile, complaints
about the American dominance of the internet are ubiquitous, but the
complaints tend to be resigned rather than deant. For Japans admin-
istrators know full well that the price of taking on the United States
head-to-head in internet and software-related industries is the importing
of the free-wheeling, entrepreneurial culture of Silicon Valley, complete
with maverick young scientists walking out on established university
professors, billion-dollar start-ups run by boys in their early twenties,
and highly developed venture capital markets immune to bureaucratic
interference. Despite periodic attempts to mimic certain aspects of this
culturethe Japanese electronics giants that encourage their program-
mers to wear jeans to work; the attempts by MITI to pass out some $1.5
billion over the past two years to jumpstart software development
7