This document defines key concepts related to investment returns and risk. It discusses that total return consists of yield from income and price appreciation/depreciation. It also describes the two main types of risk: systematic/general risk that affects all securities and cannot be avoided, and unsystematic/specific risk that is unique to a particular issuer. The document then provides examples of different types of risk such as market risk, interest rate risk, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. It also discusses the differences between arithmetic and geometric means for calculating returns over time as well as concepts like risk premiums.
This document defines key concepts related to investment returns and risk. It discusses that total return consists of yield from income and price appreciation/depreciation. It also describes the two main types of risk: systematic/general risk that affects all securities and cannot be avoided, and unsystematic/specific risk that is unique to a particular issuer. The document then provides examples of different types of risk such as market risk, interest rate risk, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. It also discusses the differences between arithmetic and geometric means for calculating returns over time as well as concepts like risk premiums.
This document defines key concepts related to investment returns and risk. It discusses that total return consists of yield from income and price appreciation/depreciation. It also describes the two main types of risk: systematic/general risk that affects all securities and cannot be avoided, and unsystematic/specific risk that is unique to a particular issuer. The document then provides examples of different types of risk such as market risk, interest rate risk, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. It also discusses the differences between arithmetic and geometric means for calculating returns over time as well as concepts like risk premiums.
This document defines key concepts related to investment returns and risk. It discusses that total return consists of yield from income and price appreciation/depreciation. It also describes the two main types of risk: systematic/general risk that affects all securities and cannot be avoided, and unsystematic/specific risk that is unique to a particular issuer. The document then provides examples of different types of risk such as market risk, interest rate risk, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. It also discusses the differences between arithmetic and geometric means for calculating returns over time as well as concepts like risk premiums.
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Return Components
Returns consist of two elements:
1. Yield :Periodic cash flows such as interest or dividends (income return) 2. Price appreciation or depreciation (capital gain or loss):The change in price of the asset
Total Return =Yield +Price Change
Risk Types Risk is the chance that the actual outcome from an investment will differ from the expected outcome. Risk is often associated with the dispersion (variability) in the likely outcomes. , and the standard deviation is a statistical measure of variability or dispersion. 1. Systematic (general) risk
Pervasive, affecting all securities, cannot be avoided Interest rate or market or inflation risks
2. Nonsystematic (specific) risk: Unique characteristics specific to issuer Total Risk = General Risk + Specific Risk 1. Interest Rate Risk: The risk that interest rates rises 2. Market Risk: is the variability in returns due to fluctuations in the overall market. It includes a wide range of factors exogenous to securities themselves. 3. Business risk is the risk of doing business in a particular industry or environment. 4. Interest rate risk and inflation risk are clearly directed related. Interest rates and inflation generally rise and fall together. 5. Country risk is the same thing as political risk. It refers to the political and economic stability and viability of a countrys economy. The
P ) P (P CF TR B B E t
6. Inflation Risk: Purchasing power variability
7. Financial Risk(Credit ): Tied to debt financing 8. Liquidity risk the risk of failing to liquidate assets easily and quickly 9. Exchange Rate Risk: Fluctuations in exchange rate
Return 1. Historical returns are realized returns( Ex-Post) 2. Expected returns are returns expected to occur in the future(EX-Ante) Arithmetic Mean Vs Geometric Mean 1. Arithmetic mean, or simply mean =average of returns
2. Geometric mean reflects compound, cumulative returns over more than one period
The geometric mean is a better measure of the change in wealth over more than a single period. Over multiple periods the geometric mean indicates the compound rate of return, or the rate at which an invested dollar grows, and takes into account the variability in the returns.
The geometric mean is always less than the arithmetic mean because it allows for the compounding effect--the earning of interest on interest.
Return Relative RR=1+TR
Cumulative Wealth Index =CWI measures the cumulative effect of returns over time, typically on the basis of $1 invested.
CWI =[1+GM] 1/n or = WI 0 (1 + TR 1 )(1 + TR 2 ) . . . (1 + TR n ) Adjusting Returns for Inflation Returns measures are not adjusted for inflation Purchasing power of investment may change over time Consumer Price Index (CPI) is possible measure of inflation ) TR )...( TR )( TR ( /n n 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
Risk Premiums Premium is additional return earned or expected for additional risk Equity risk premium is the difference between stock and risk-free returns Bond horizon premium is the difference between long- and short-term government securities