CH 6 Investment Notes

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Return Components

Returns consist of two elements:



1. Yield :Periodic cash flows such as interest or dividends (income return)
2. Price appreciation or depreciation (capital gain or loss):The change in price
of the asset

Total Return =Yield +Price Change


Risk Types
Risk is the chance that the actual outcome from an investment will differ from
the expected outcome.
Risk is often associated with the dispersion (variability) in the likely
outcomes. , and the standard deviation is a statistical measure of variability
or dispersion.
1. Systematic (general) risk

Pervasive, affecting all securities, cannot be avoided
Interest rate or market or inflation risks

2. Nonsystematic (specific) risk: Unique characteristics specific to issuer
Total Risk = General Risk + Specific Risk
1. Interest Rate Risk: The risk that interest rates rises
2. Market Risk: is the variability in returns due to fluctuations in the overall
market. It includes a wide range of factors exogenous to securities
themselves.
3. Business risk is the risk of doing business in a particular industry or environment.
4. Interest rate risk and inflation risk are clearly directed related. Interest rates and inflation
generally rise and fall together.
5. Country risk is the same thing as political risk. It refers to the political and economic
stability and viability of a countrys economy. The

P
) P (P CF
TR
B
B E t

6. Inflation Risk: Purchasing power variability


7. Financial Risk(Credit ): Tied to debt financing
8. Liquidity risk the risk of failing to liquidate assets easily and quickly
9. Exchange Rate Risk: Fluctuations in exchange rate

Return
1. Historical returns are realized returns( Ex-Post)
2. Expected returns are returns expected to occur in the future(EX-Ante)
Arithmetic Mean Vs Geometric Mean
1. Arithmetic mean, or simply mean =average of returns

2. Geometric mean reflects compound, cumulative returns over more than one
period

The geometric mean is a better measure of the change in wealth over more
than a single period. Over multiple periods the geometric mean indicates
the compound rate of return, or the rate at which an invested dollar grows,
and takes into account the variability in the returns.

The geometric mean is always less than the arithmetic mean because it allows for the
compounding effect--the earning of interest on interest.

Return Relative RR=1+TR

Cumulative Wealth Index =CWI measures the cumulative effect of returns over
time, typically on the basis of $1 invested.

CWI =[1+GM]
1/n
or = WI
0
(1 + TR
1
)(1 + TR
2
) . . . (1 + TR
n
)
Adjusting Returns for Inflation
Returns measures are not adjusted for inflation
Purchasing power of investment may change over time
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is possible measure of inflation
) TR )...( TR )( TR (
/n
n
1 1 1 1
1
2 1





Risk Premiums
Premium is additional return earned or expected for additional risk
Equity risk premium is the difference between stock and risk-free returns
Bond horizon premium is the difference between long- and short-term
government securities




CPI
TR
TR
IA
1
1
1

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