SchwartzMoon (2000) Rational Pricing Internet Cpy
SchwartzMoon (2000) Rational Pricing Internet Cpy
SchwartzMoon (2000) Rational Pricing Internet Cpy
Simulation of Rev
Parameters
Historical Sales (Rt)
Initial Revenue R0 355.8 million per quarter
Initial loss carry forward L0 559.0 million Simulated Sales (Rt)
revenues in $ million
Initial Cash Balance available X0 700.0 million Drift of (Rt)
Initial expected rate of revenue growth m0 11.0% per quarter Bankruptcy line
Initial volatility of revenues s0 10.0% per quarter
Initial volatility of expected rate of revenue growth h0 3.0% per quarter
Correlation between percentage change in r 0.0
revenue and change in expected rate of growth
Long-term rate of growth in revenues μ̄ mlt 1.5% per quarter
Long-term volatility of the rate of revenue growth slt 5.0% per quarter
2
Company's corporate tax rate tc 35.0%
Risk-free interest rate r -5 0 5 1
5.0% per year
Speed of adjustment for rate of growth process k 0.07 per quarter
Speed of adjustment for the volatility of revenue k1 0.07 per quarter Net Income and Tax
process
Speed of adjustment for the volatility of the rate of k2 0.07 per quarter
revenue growth process
COGS as % of revenues a 75.0%
revenues in $ million
Fixed component of other expenses F 75.0 million
Variable component of other expenses b 19.0%
Market price of risk for revenue factor l1 0.01 per quarter 2
Market price of risk for rate of revenue growth l2 - per quarter
factor
Horizon for estimation T 100.0 quarters
Time increment for discrete version of model Dt 1 quarter
-5 0 5 1
PRESS F9 (recalculate) to run new simulation
Ti
Results
Bankruptcy in period 4.00 yrs. Net income T
Final Cash Balance 89,827.0 million
10X EBITDA Multiple 18,732.6 million Cash Balance and Loss C
Present Value of Firm - million
revenues in $ million
100% mt
80%
Simulate
60% d mt 2
40%
Drift of -5 0 5 1
20% mt
0% Cash balance Xt
123412341234123123456789110111213141516171829202122232425262728393031323334353637384940414243444546474859505152535455565758696061626364656667687970717273747576777889808182838485868788999091929394959697989
996969696979797979898989899999
160%
revenues in $
140%
120%
Historical
growth in %
100% mt
80%
Simulate
60% d mt
2
40%
Drift of -5 0 5 1
20% mt
0% Cash balance Xt
123412341234123123456789110111213141516171829202122232425262728393031323334353637384940414243444546474859505152535455565758696061626364656667687970717273747576777889808182838485868788999091929394959697989
996969696979797979898989899999
time period (quarter)
10%
Drift of
8%
mt
6%
4%
2%
0%
96 1
2
3
97 4
1
2
1
2
3
1
99 2
3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
12
21
24
25
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
44
45
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
57
58
73
74
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
86
87
3
98 4
98 4
10
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
22
23
26
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
46
56
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
75
85
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
98
98
99
99
96
96
96
97
97
97
35,000
Quarter
Historical Sales (Rt)
30,000
96 1
Simulated Sales (Rt) 96 2
Drift of (Rt) 25,000 96 3
Bankruptcy line 96 4
20,000
97 1
15,000 97 2
10,000 97 3
97 4
5,000
98 1
2 - 98 2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 98 3
Time (years)
98 4
Net Income and Tax Expense 2,500
99 1
2,000
99 2
99 3
1,500
1
2
2 1,000 3
500 4
5
-
6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 7
8
Time (years) (500)
9
10
Net income Tax expense Bankruptcy line
11
12
Cash Balance and Loss Carry Forward 13
100,000
14
90,000 15
80,000 16
70,000 17
18
60,000
19
50,000 20
40,000 21
30,000
22
23
20,000
24
10,000
2 -
5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Time (years)
Cash balance Xt Loss carry forward Lt Bankruptcy line
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000 25
2 - 26
5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 27
Time (years) 28
Cash balance Xt Loss carry forward Lt Bankruptcy line 29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Quarterly Sales & Costs for Amazon
Time
scale in Historical Gross Interest Pretax Tax Net
years Sales (Rt) COGS profit SG&A EBITDA income profit expense income
-3.5 0.875 0.678 0.197 0.516 (0.319)
-3.25 2.230 1.725 0.505 1.253 (0.748)
-3 4.173 3.172 1.001 3.383 (2.382)
-2.75 8.468 6.426 2.042 4.286 (2.244)
-2.5 16.005 12.484 3.521 6.623 (3.102)
-2.25 27.855 22.641 5.214 13.067 (7.853)
36.0%
74.3%
32.3%
32.8%
32.4%
64.5%
16.1%
7.1%
559.000 700.000 355.800 355.800 13.2% 11.0% 11.0% 10.0% 3.0%
601.382 657.618 - - 396.880 394.796 11.7% 10.4% 9.7% 2.8%
639.333 619.667 - - 479.624 435.421 12.3% 9.8% 9.3% 2.6%
673.183 585.817 - - 555.929 477.516 11.4% 9.2% 9.1% 2.4%
0.053 0.461
0.808 0.461
0.326 -0.046
0.420 1.218
0.624 0.815
-0.519 0.173
-1.979 0.179
-0.395 1.371
0.842 -0.050
-0.939 1.397
-0.742 -0.331
-0.146 0.666
1.173 -1.071
0.170 -0.827
-0.244 2.066
1.335 0.856
1.024 -0.762
0.184 -0.075
0.341 -0.085
-1.929 0.383
0.664 -0.684
1.276 0.019
-1.398 0.414
0.976 0.690
0.113 -0.257
0.412 -0.064
0.693 0.418
-0.535 -0.161
-1.114 -1.923
-1.535 -2.187
1.233 0.057
0.397 0.965
-0.211 0.626
-0.028 -1.085
0.021 1.933
0.624 1.699
0.084 0.141
-0.126 -1.307
0.758 0.123
1.205 1.559
1.067 0.086
-1.037 -0.253
-0.618 -0.288
-0.824 -1.136
1.549 1.884
1.613 2.023
-2.770 -0.335
-0.366 -0.905
0.017 -0.690
1.647 -1.398
-0.833 0.300
1.875 -0.444
0.744 -0.969
-0.679 1.078
1.189 -0.216
-0.846 -0.437
-0.511 -0.198
1.422 -1.327
0.009 0.507
-0.210 1.835
-0.522 0.094
-1.339 -0.416
1.250 -0.278
-0.646 0.939
-1.813 -0.947
0.999 -1.572
-0.785 0.827
1.301 -0.538
1.428 -1.212
0.803 -1.144
0.245 1.118
1.563 0.125
-0.191 -0.039
-0.748 -0.063
-1.295 0.444
-0.139 -1.365
-1.506 2.231
-0.079 -1.153
0.443 -0.997
-0.862 -1.217
1.192 -0.562
-0.157 0.283
-1.395 0.714
-0.060 0.457
-0.893 0.640
-1.788 -1.074
-0.785 -0.695
0.669 0.784
-0.774 -0.648
-0.230 -1.625
-2.372 -0.843
0.402 1.112
-0.286 0.082
-0.461 0.327
0.015 0.793
-0.740 -1.040
0.847 -1.080
0.814 -0.975
-0.296 0.435
0.620 -0.831