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VICTORIAN ANNUAL
PLANNING REPORT
Victorias Electricity and Gas
Transmission Network Planning Document
2010
VICTORIAN ELECTRICITY AND GAS
TRANSMISSION NETWORKS
New South Wales
Victoria
ELECTRICITY GAS
500kV Transmission
330kV Transmission
Declared Transmission System
Other Transmission System
275kV Transmission
220kV Transmission
HVDV Transmission
VICTORIAN ANNUAL PLANNING REPORT

AEMO 2010 1 Disclaimer
Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared by the Australian Energy Market Operator Limited (AEMO)
based on information provided by electricity and gas industry participants.
AEMO has not independently audited or verified the data or information provided by participants but
has reasonably endeavoured to ensure that this document accurately reflects the information
provided to AEMO by those participants. Anyone proposing to use the information in this Victorian
Annual Planning Report (VAPR) should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness,
reliability and suitability of the information to their satisfaction prior to taking any action on the VAPR
or any part of it. This publication contains certain predictions, estimates and statements that reflect
various assumptions. Those assumptions may or may not prove correct. The forecasts in this
document may change from year to year. Those forecasts may or may not prove to be correct.
The information contained in this publication might contain errors or omissions, and may or may not
prove to be correct. In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the information in this
publication should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability, and
suitability of that information (including information and reports provided by third parties) and should
obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts. Accordingly, to the maximum
extent permitted by law, neither AEMO, nor any of AEMOs advisers, consultants or other
contributors to this publication (or their respective associated companies, businesses, partners,
directors, officers or employees):
make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability
or completeness of this publication and the information contained in it; and
shall have any liability (whether arising from negligence, negligent misstatement, or otherwise) for
any statements, opinions, information or matter (expressed or implied) arising out of, contained in
or derived from, or for any omissions from, the information in this publication, or in respect of a
persons use of the information (including any reliance on its currency, accuracy, reliability or
completeness) contained in this publication.
Copyright Notice
AEMO is the owner of the copyright and all other intellectual property rights in this publication. All
rights are reserved. This publication must not be resold without AEMOs prior written permission. All
material is subject to copyright under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth) and permission to copy it, or any
parts of it, must be obtained in writing from AEMO.
Acknowledgment
AEMO acknowledges the support, co-operation and contribution of all participants in providing the
data and information used in this VAPR.

AEMO 2010 2

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AEMO 2010 3 Contents
Contents
Executive Summary ................................................................................................... 7
Chapter 1 Introduction .......................................................................................... 19
1.1 AEMOs planning documents .................................................................................... 21
1.2 About annual electricity and gas planning ................................................................. 22
1.3 Producing the VAPR ................................................................................................. 23
1.4 AEMOs Victorian electricity planning and development role ........................................... 24
1.5 AEMOs Victorian gas planning and development role ............................................. 24
1.6 Changes since 2009 ................................................................................................. 27
1.7 Contacting AEMO ..................................................................................................... 28
Chapter 2 Emerging issues and trends for 2010 ................................................ 29
2.1 Joint planning feasibility study with ElectraNet.......................................................... 30
2.2 Connecting generation clusters to the Victorian transmission network: a technical
perspective .......................................................................................................... 32
2.3 Gas and electricity transmission synergies ............................................................... 35
2.4 Victorian planning review - extreme hot weather ...................................................... 36
Chapter 3 Existing Network Adequacy ................................................................ 41
3.1 Network adequacy synergies .................................................................................... 42
3.2 Electricity 2009/10 ..................................................................................................... 44
3.3 Committed augmentations electricity transmission ................................................ 63
3.4 Gas 2009 ................................................................................................................... 68
3.5 Demand and supply .................................................................................................. 72
3.6 Demand and supply comparison ............................................................................... 77
3.7 Pipeline injections, withdrawals and operating boundaries ....................................... 78
3.8 Committed augmentations gas transmission ......................................................... 88
Chapter 4 Demand forecasts ................................................................................ 91
4.1 Electricity demand forecasts ..................................................................................... 92
4.2 Gas demand forecasts ............................................................................................ 104
Chapter 5 Supply Forecasts ............................................................................... 109
5.1 Supply forecast synergies ....................................................................................... 109
5.2 Electricity supply ..................................................................................................... 109
5.3 Gas supply .............................................................................................................. 112


Chapter 6 Fuel Supply ........................................................................................ 125
6.1 Historical fuel usage for electricity generation ......................................................... 125
6.2 Gas fuel usage in Victoria ....................................................................................... 126
6.3 Coal fuel usage in Victoria ...................................................................................... 128
6.4 Liquid fuel usage in Victoria .................................................................................... 130
6.5 Fuel prices ............................................................................................................... 130
Chapter 7 Supply, Demand and Transmission Capacity ................................. 135
7.1 Transmission capacity synergies ............................................................................ 135
7.2 Electricity transmission capacity ............................................................................. 137
7.3 Gas transmission capacity ...................................................................................... 141
7.4 Gas transmission system capacity for gas powered generation ............................. 145
7.5 Potenti al spare gas transmi ssi on system capacity due to augmentati on 146
Chapter 8 Planning Overview ............................................................................. 149
8.1 Planning synergies .................................................................................................. 149
8.2 Electricity planning .................................................................................................. 151
8.3 Planning for the 5-year outlook ............................................................................... 152
8.4 Electricity scenarios and the 10-year outlook .......................................................... 155
8.5 Gas planning ........................................................................................................... 163
8.6 Electricity and gas planning scenario overlaps ....................................................... 169
Chapter 9 Transmission Development .............................................................. 171
9.1 Electricity transmission development ...................................................................... 171
9.2 Gas transmission development ............................................................................... 176
9.3 Regional transmission constraints .......................................................................... 179
9.4 Distribution network service provider planning ........................................................ 225
9.5 SP AusNet asset replacement and refurbishment plan ........................................... 227
9.6 Gas - future developments ...................................................................................... 229
9.7 Plant outages and system capacity ......................................................................... 230
9.8 Planned maintenance (monthly planning review 2010)........................................... 231
E1 Comparison of Previous Forecasts and Actual Demand Data ...................... 237
E2 Victorian Economic Forecasts ......................................................................... 245
E3 Major Government Energy Policies and Initiatives ........................................ 247
E4 Terminal Station Demand Forecasts (2009/10-2018/19) ................................. 257
E5 Energy Supply Technology .............................................................................. 263

G1 System Capacity ............................................................................................... 265
G2 Modelling Methodology .................................................................................... 267
G3 Within-day Balancing ....................................................................................... 271
G4 Dependence of Pipeline Capacity on Delivery Pressure and Injection
Profile 277
G5 Compressor Requirements .............................................................................. 279
Glossary 281




AEMO 2010 7 Executive summary
Executive Summary
The Victorian Annual Planning Report (VAPR) is prepared by AEMO in accordance with Section
5.6.2A of the National Electricity Rules (Rules) and Rule 323 of the National Gas Rules (NGR). This
is the first VAPR produced by AEMO.
The VAPR provides forecasts for energy demand and supply, and identifies future development
needs for both the electricity Declared Shared Network (electricity DSN) and the gas Declared
Transmission System (gas DTS) for the forecast period 2010-2020. The VAPR covers the
stationary energy sector (reticulated natural gas and electricity ), and reflects various electricity and
gas market synergies by combining information historically published separately in AEMOs annual
planning reports for electricity and gas. In the electricity market, AEMO is responsible for planning
and directing augmentations to Victorias electricity DSN. In the gas market, AEMO provides
planning information to the gas industry, but it is not AEMOs role to act on that information.
The VAPR was prepared prior to Australian Government announcements regarding the Henry
Review of Taxation and the Resource Rent Tax in May 2010, and issues relating to these policies
have not been considered.
Energy corridors and regions examined
The VAPR examines a number of important energy corridors and zones that are used to transmit
electrical energy or gas, as well as the two main demand regions. This examination takes the form
of an analysis of energy demand and network constraints over a 5-year and a 10-year outlook.
Table 1 lists the corridors and zones considered, as well as identifying the colour coding used to
differentiate between the two throughout the VAPR. Findings are reported against these corridors
and zones.
Table 1 Electricity and gas regions
Electricity region Gas region
The Eastern Corridor Gippsland Zone
The South-West Corridor Western Zone
The Northern Corridor Northern Zone
Greater Melbourne and Geelong Melbourne and Geelong Zone
Regional Victoria Ballarat Zone

The VAPR enables industry and government to understand and plan for demand increases, and to
develop safe, secure, reliable, and economically viable transmission networks by providing
information that:
identifies and advances options to relieve existing or potential gas and electricity transmission
constraints
assesses future requirements for gas supplies and gas DTS augmentation, as well as the
availability of spare capacity for new connections, and
includes electricity DSN asset refurbishment plans provided by SP AusNet for the next 10 years.
Table 2 summarises the key findings from the 2010 Victorian Annual Planning Report (VAPR).

Table 2 Key messages for 2010
Key messages
New
initiatives
Several changes have been made to the VAPR this year:
Scenario planning has been linked to the scenario planning to be used in other planning documents, such
as the National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP), which were developed for the NTNDP
in consultation with energy industry stakeholders
There are two new chapters: Fuel outlook, which provides a fuel outlook for Victoria; and Emerging
issues and trends for 2010, which discusses a number of issues that will influence future transmission
investment planning in Victoria
See Chapter 1 for more detail

Electricity
investment

In the 5-year outlook for electricity, the VAPR identifies a number of projects to alleviate constraints that
warrant further economic assessment under the Regulatory Investment Test for Transmission (RIT-T)
including:
Eastern Corridor Braking resistor installation at Hazelwood terminal station, and
Regional Victoria Uprating of the Ballarat-Moorabool, Ballarat-Bendigo, and Geelong-Moorabool 220 kV
lines
The range of augmentation project costs to address these constraints is between $190 million and
$625 million. Individual projects, however, may not prove economic under the RIT-T
The 2009 Transmission Connection Planning Report (produced jointly by the Victorian electricity
distribution businesses who are responsible for planning and directing the augmentation of the facilities
that connect their distribution systems to the electricity DSN)
1
has highlighted a further $232 million of
capital projects for the next 10 years on distribution/transmission connection works
SP AusNet is also carrying out a significant capital replacement program totalling $573 million over the
next 10 years
See Chapter 9 for more information

Gas
investment
In the 5-year outlook for gas, the VAPR identifies a number of projects to alleviate constraints caused by
system demand growth, greater export and/or new gas powered generation (GPG) including:
Gippsland Zone Warragul-Pakenham branch pipeline duplication
Northern Zone Compressor upgrades to increase gas export through Culcairn
Melbourne and Geelong Zone and a new compressor station at Stonehaven
Ballarat Zone and a tie-over of the Sunbury lateral to the BLP pipeline, or a Sunbury branch pipeline
duplication
Of the new electricity DSN connection applications currently being processed by AEMO, over 1,000 MW
are for new gas powered generation (GPG) in Victoria

Energy
and
demand
forecasts

The electricity energy and maximum demand forecasts for 2010 reflect similar trends to those established
in the 2009 VAPR
The gas supply and demand forecasts reflect no change since the 2009 VAPR Update (published in
November 2009), which forecast a 13% increase in gas demand by 2019
Development of the VAPR
AEMO continuously reviews and revises its documentation to improve the relevance and value of its
publications for the stationary energy sector. Table 3 lists the changes and innovations implemented
by the VAPR for 2010.

1
See http://www.sp-ausnet.com.au/CA2575630006F222/Lookup/general/$file/TCPR2009.pdf

Table 3 New content in 2010

Title Description of approach
Chapter 1 Introduction
The introduction now incorporates a description of the relationship between the
VAPR and AEMOs other planning documents
Chapter 2
Emerging
issues and
trends for
2010
This new chapter provides a:
summary of work to-date on the AEMO and ElectraNet Joint Interconnector
Feasibility study - the study aims to identify options to economically increase
interconnector capacity to export power from South Australia to other
National Electricity Market (NEM) load centres. The study has a 20-year
outlook period, and covers both incremental and Greenfield projects
discussion about plans for electricity transmission collector hubs, prompted
by the large number of connections and connection proposals in Victorias
south west
discussion about potential gas and electricity transmission investment
synergies and the consideration of gas transmission as an alternative to
electricity DSN network development, and
review of the planning process undertaken by AEMO following the severe
summer bushfire season of 2008/09. Based on this, AEMO performed a
constraint assessment using a 5% probability of exceedence (5% POE)
maximum demand (MD) forecast for the Rowville-Springvale 220 kV line.
The review also recommended further work in other areas such as
transmission outage models and temperature models for transformer ratings
Chapter 3
Existing
network
adequacy
This chapter now includes a:
more explicit definition of the capability of the gas DTS, identifying the impact
operating pressure and system demand have on pipeline capacities, and
discussion about the relationship between frequently binding constraint
equations and Victorian spot market outcomes
Chapter 6 Fuel outlook
This new chapter describes the traditional fossil fuel outlook for Victorias
stationary energy sector. This shows that Victoria has significant brown coal
reserves and adequate gas reserves
Chapter 8
Planning
Overview
The scenarios used in the VAPR have been mapped to scenarios developed in
consultation with energy industry stakeholders for the NTNDP
Chapter 9
Transmission
development
This chapter now provides more information to assist with the development of
demand-side options for addressing electricity DSN constraints


Infrastructure investment
A summary of investment in electricity infrastructure in Victoria
Two recent changes are influencing investment in the Victorian electricity DSN:
The growth in peak demand has been delayed due to reduced consumption from energy
intensive industries and increased energy efficiency policies, both of which reduce the need for
investment in the electricity DSN.
There has been a significant increase in the number of generation connection enquiries, which
are now driving the most significant component of likely Victorian transmission network
investment.
Investment drivers have also been affected by the high proportion of peaking and intermittent
generation connection enquiries and applications to the network west of Melbourne. Modelling
suggests that, at times of peak demand, this generation will have the effect of backing off some
constraints east of Melbourne, allowing higher demand to be met by existing transmission network
assets. In brief:
AEMO is actively processing over 5,000 MW of new generation connection enquiries
there are plans for $233 million of distribution network connection modifications as highlighted in
the 2009 Transmission Connection Planning Report, and
there is a significant 10-year capital replacement program currently being carried out by SP
AusNet totalling $297 million in years 1 to 5, and a further $276 million by year 10.
The 5-year outlook for transmission network investment
For the electricity DSN, the 5-year outlook derives from a cost-benefit analysis of projects for each
region for each year of the forecast period. This analysis is based on a simulation that uses NEM
dispatch data and demand projections from the 2009 VAPR. It also uses critical plant capabilities to
determine probable usage of the electricity DSN and a quantification of possible unmet load.
For gas, the analysis behind the 5-year outlook identifies system constraints by assuming 25 TJ/d of
demand from existing GPG plant on top of the 1 in 20 year winter peak day demand (using the
system demand forecasts published in the November 2009 VAPR Update). The analysis then
assesses possible augmentation projects for each region based on this demand.
Transmission constraints (electricity and gas)
Electricity transmission constraints identified for further assessment (5-year outlook)
Table 4 summarises electricity DSN constraints from the 5-year outlook that have been highlighted
for further detailed assessment and potential Regulatory Investment Test for Transmission (RIT-T)
analysis along with ranges of possible network solutions to address each of them. The sum of the
lowest cost options for each constraint is $190 million and the sum of highest is $625 million. This
large range arises since possible solutions to transmission constraints consist of small capital
expenditure projects as well as larger capital expenditure works projects. Each of these projects
delivers higher or lower benefits in accordance with its cost. To proceed, a project identified for a
RIT-T analysis must be economically justifiable, i.e. the capital expenditure delivers more value than
costs. This further cost-benefit assessment will determine the optimum solution in each case, which
may be that no project is economically justified.

Table 4 Electricity transmission constraints and possible solutions (5-year outlook)
Constraint Possible network solution
Cost estimate
($M)
Eastern Corridor
Transient stability export limit for Victorian export
to New South Wales and South Australia
Braking resistor installation at Hazelwood
Terminal Station
1726
Static VAr Compensator (SVC) installation at
Dederang Terminal Station
72108
South-West Corridor
Elevated levels of voltage unbalance on the
MooraboolHeywood 500 kV line
Installation of individual phase-controllable
SVCs
36108
Installation of additional line transpositions 4583
Heywood 500/275/22 kV transformer loading
New (third) 500/275/22 kV transformer
installation at Heywood Terminal Station
3350
Greater Melbourne and Geelong
Rowville 500/220 kV transformer loading
New (third) 500/220 kV transformer installation
at Rowville Terminal Station
5065
at Rowville Terminal Station, including
increased East RowvilleRowville 220 kV line
rating from a twin to quad bundled conductor
6281
at Rowville Terminal Station, including a new
(underground) East RowvilleRowville 220 kV
circuit
6686
at Rowville Terminal Station, including
establishing a new 220 kV terminal station at
Narre Warren
93121
Regional Victoria
BallaratMoorabool 220 kV line loading
New (third) BallaratMoorabool 220 kV circuit
installation (strung on existing towers)
2132
Increased GeelongMoorabool No.1 220 kV
circuit rating to 75C conductor design
temperature
2335
Increased GeelongMoorabool No.1 220 kV
circuit rating to 82C conductor design
temperature
2638
BallaratBendigo 220 kV line loading
Increased BallaratBendigo 220 kV line rating
to 75C conductor design temperature
2842
1

Replacement of the existing BallaratBendigo
220 kV line with a double circuit line
150225
GeelongMoorabool 220 kV line loading
Increased rating of the GeelongMoorabool
220 kV line terminations to match the
conductor rating
58
New double circuit GeelongMoorabool 220 kV
line installation
21-25

1 Estimate includes line cost only.


Table 5 summarises gas DTS constraints in each of the 5 zones that are triggered by any or a
combination of the following three factors - system demand increase, new GPG and greater gas
export. Table 5 shows possible solutions based on current modelling from the 5-year outlook.
Table 5 Gas transmission constraints and possible solutions (5-year outlook)
Constraint Possible network solution Trigger
Gippsland Zone
Warragul Warragul branch pipeline duplication
Anticipated winter 2012
increase in industrial/Tariff D
demand
Pakenham South

Pakenham South branch duplication
The pipeline owner has indicated that
duplication of the small diameter
section of this lateral is being
undertaken, and is expected to be
complete by the end of June 2010
Increased system demand
leading to high gas velocity
on the branch pipeline
Western Zone
Western Transmission System A new system injection point
and low or no injection
coming from Iona timing
prior to winter 2014
Northern Zone
Shepparton/Echuca

Culcairn (exports)
Upgrade maximum allowable
operating pressure (MAOP) to 8.8
MPa from Wollert to Euroa
Wollert Compressor Station upgrade,
and reverse compression at
Springhurst
A new compressor station at Euroa is
required to further increase export
capacity
Increased system demand,
especially gas export of
approximately 28 TJ/d to
New South Wales
Melbourne and Geelong Zone
Maroondah Highway A Yarra Glen to Lilydale link
gas export to New South
Wales
South West Pipeline
A new compressor station at
Stonehaven
New entry GPG, gas export
Ballarat Zone
Sunbury
Operate Wandong pressure limiter at
high outlet pressure

and export to New South
Wales
Prior to winter 2010

Tie over the Sunbury lateral to the
BLP pipeline
and
Sunbury branch pipeline duplication

Wales



Ten-year outlook
To ensure consistency between all AEMO planning documents and studies, a set of five National
Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP) scenarios have been developed.
Using the inputs from the NTNDP scenarios, as well as preliminary market modelling results, AEMO
has detailed five scenarios specifically for the VAPR 10-year electricity outlook. The VAPR
scenarios, which are designed to capture the limits of transmission infrastructure development that
may be required, describe the potential location and type of new generation within Victoria as well
as the potential changes in Victorian imports and exports.
The VAPR scenarios, which represent possible trends in the generation mix expected under the
NTNDP scenarios, are not intended to be predications of the state of generation in 10 years, but to
represent the bounds of reasonable possibility. The VAPR scenarios also account for new electricity
and gas connection enquiries from AEMO.
Table 6 summarises how the five scenarios have been used in the VAPR (see Chapter 8 for more
detailed descriptions).
Table 6 Scenarios used for the 10-year electricity outlook
Scenario name Scenario description
Scenario 1
Fast rate of change
Substantial new gas generation in the Eastern Corridor, combined with
no existing generator retirement
Growth on the gas DTS from GPG in the Eastern Corridor
Rising imports from South Australia into Victoria from geothermal
generation
Substantial exports into New South Wales from both Eastern Corridor
generation and South Australia
Moderate growth in demand-side participation (DSP) and GPG on the
gas DTS in Greater Melbourne and Geelong.
Scenario 2
An uncertain world
Substantial imports from New South Wales into Victoria
Moderate new investment in GPG in the South-West Corridor
Substantial export from Victoria into South Australia
Little or no gas DTS growth
Scenario 3
A decentralised world
Substantial DSP in Greater Melbourne and Geelong
Substantial new wind generation in both the south west and regional
areas, as well as supporting peaking GPG
Less generation than currently exists in the Eastern Corridor, with
some conversion from coal to gas causing gas DTS growth
Moderate demand for GPG in Melbourne and Geelong, and additional
demand on the gas DTS

Scenario name Scenario description
Scenario 4
Oil shock and
adaptation
Substantial wind and gas generation in the South-West Corridor
Substantial geothermal and wind generation exports from South
Australia to Victoria
Less generation than currently exists in the Eastern Corridor, with
some conversion from coal to gas causing some gas DTS growth
Moderate growth in DSP and GPG on the DTS in Greater Melbourne
and Geelong
Scenario 5
Slow rate of change
Very little generation growth in Victoria
Substantial geothermal and wind generation exports from South
Australia to Victoria
Little or no demand growth on the gas DTS
Little net power transfer between Victoria and New South Wales

Table 7 summarises the broader findings of the 10-year outlook scenarios for electricity and gas.
Table 7 Key conclusions from 10-year electricity and gas outlook
10-year outlook Summary of conclusions
Electricity
The VAPR identifies a number of electricity DSN projects that may be required in the 10-year
outlook. These include the:
Eastern Corridor, and Latrobe Valley to Melbourne 500 kV line works
South-West Corridor, and new generation connections along the Moorabool-Heywood 500
kV line, new 500 kV line installations from Moorabool to Heywood, and a new 275 kV line
installation from Heywood to South-East substation in South Australia
Northern corridor, and a capacitor bank installation and series compensation at Dederang
Greater Melbourne/Geelong corridor, and new 220 kV line cut-ins at South Morang and
Ringwood, and
Regional Victoria, and line uprating or replacement with new 220 kV lines for Ballarat to
Horsham, Ballarat to Terang, Moorabool to Terang, Horsham to Red Cliffs, Kerang to Wemen
to Red Cliffs, and Dederang to Glenrowan
Gas
The VAPR identifies a number of gas DTS projects that may be required in the 10-year
outlook. These include the:
Gippsland Zone, and Longford pipeline duplication upstream and downstream of Gooding
Northern Zone, and pipeline duplication between Wollert and Barnawartha, and
Geelong/Melbourne Zone, and a new Rockbank to Wollert pipeline and pipeline duplication
from Iona to Lara
Long-term planning investigations
Table 8 summarises two significant studies into long-term electricity transmission requirements
scheduled for 2010. Both studies are looking at transmission capabilities between NEM regions,
potentially requiring Victorian electricity DSN development.

Table 8 Long-term electricity planning investigations
Study Description
Joint feasibility study
on South Australian
interconnection
AEMO and ElectraNet are working on a joint interconnector feasibility study to examine
cost-effective options to increase electricity interconnector capability between South
Australia and other major load centres. Incremental augmentation options and
greenfield options are being analysed over a 20-year outlook period
Options under consideration include incremental augmentations to existing
interconnections (Heywood and Murraylink) and possible new HVDC and HVAC
transmission between South Australia and Victoria and/or New South Wales
The four greenfield options currently under consideration are a:
500 kV double circuit AC line from Wilmington to Mt. Piper (1,100 km)
500 kV HVDC line from Wilmington to Mt. Piper (1,100 km)
500 kV double circuit AC line from Tepko to Yass via Horsham, Shepparton and
Wodonga (1,050 km), and
500 kV double circuit AC line from Krongart to Heywood (125 km)
Feasibility study on
improving
interconnection
between Victoria and
New South Wales
AEMO is studying the feasibility of upgrading the New South Wales to Victoria
interconnector
The feasibility study objectives are to develop a range of cost-effective transmission
augmentation options compatible with existing national transmission networks and
considered feasible from an approvals and construction perspective. The proposed
approach seeks to rely and build on the current joint feasibility study with ElectraNet as
well as AEMOs NTNDP analysis
Current network augmentation options are being collated and refined. As with the
ElectraNet joint feasibility study, both incremental and greenfields options will be
considered with capacity increases of up to 1,000 MW

Energy and demand forecasts
Energy and maximum demand (MD) forecasts for electricity, and peak day and annual demand
forecasts for gas form key inputs into electricity and gas transmission network planning and
investment decisions.
Electricity forecasts
AEMO engaged KPMG Econtech to provide an updated assessment of the economic outlook and
policy environment for the NEM regions in April 2010. The forecasts presented in the 2010 VAPR
are consistent with the Victorian forecasts that will be published in AEMOs 2010 Electricity
Statement of Opportunities (ESOO).
The electricity energy and MD forecasts were prepared by the National Institute of Economic and
Industry Research (NIEIR) and AEMO in May 2010.
Table 9 shows the change in the electricity forecasts from 2009 to 2010.

Table 9 Electricity forecast summary
2010 VAPR 2009 VAPR Change
Summer 2010/11 10% POE Native MD 10,783 MW 10,702 MW 81 MW (0.8%)
Winter 2010 10% POE Native MD 8,347 MW 8,262 MW 85 MW (1.0%)
2010/11 Annual Energy 52,092 GWh 51,436 GWh 656 GWh (1.3%)
2010/11 Australian GDP Growth 3.6% 4.0% -0.4%
2010/11 Victorian GSP Growth 2.5% 2.7% -0.2%

Table 10 shows the summer 10% probability of exceedence (POE) native MD is forecast to increase
by 3.4% in 2010/11, from 10,425 MW in summer 2009/10 to 10,783 MW in summer 2010/11,
increasing by an average of 239 MW, or 2.1% per annum, over the period from 2010/2011 to
2019/20 to reach 12,930 MW.
Table 10 Electricity summer 10% POE native MD forecasts (medium economic growth
scenario), 2010-2019 (MW)
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
10,783 11,103 11,372 11,461 11,673 11,990 12,174 12,421 12,699 12,930

Table 11 shows the winter 10% POE MD native MD is forecast to increase by an average of
approximately 120 MW, or 1.4 % per annum, over the period from 2010-2019.
Table 11 Electricity winter 10% POE native MD forecasts (medium economic growth
scenario), 2010-2019 (MW)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
8,347 8,429 8,650 8,733 8,816 8,886 9,010 9,175 9,289 9,431

Table 12 shows annual electrical energy consumption is forecast to increase by 0.4 % in 2010/11 to
52,092 GWh, from an estimated 51,870 GWh in 2009/10. From 2010/11 onwards, positive growth in
consumption is expected, with an average growth rate of 0.9%, or 520 GWh, per annum to 2019/20.
Table 12 Electricity annual native energy forecasts (medium economic growth scenario),
2010-2019 (GWh)
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
52,092 53,404 54,272 53,856 53,930 54,103 54,889 55,746 56,208 56,804


Gas forecasts
The gas system demand and GPG forecasts presented in the 2010 VAPR were prepared by NIEIR
in November 2009. The Victorian economic outlook used to prepare these forecasts was produced
by NIEIR in September 2009. These results were published in AEMOs Victorian Annual Planning
Report Update (VAPR Update
2
) in November 2009.
Table 13 shows the peak day gas demand forecasts for the forecast period.
Table 13 Gas peak day demand forecasts, 2010-2019 (PJ/yr)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1 in 2 1,181 1,193 1,197 1,198 1,204 1,209 1,213 1,223 1,231 1,238
1 in 20 1,296 1,310 1,315 1,317 1,323 1,330 1,334 1,347 1,356 1,365

Table 14 shows the annual gas demand given a medium economic growth scenario for the forecast
period.
Table 14 Gas annual system demand forecasts (medium economic growth scenario), 2009-
2018 (PJ/yr)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Average Annual
Growth
2010-2019
208.2 210.1 210.7 211.1 211.4 211.9 212.3 213.1 213.9 214.6 0.34%

2
See http://www.AEMO.com.au/index.php?action=filemanager&folder_id=492&pageID=7736.



AEMO 2010 19 Chapter 1 - Introduction
AEMO performs a number of key roles within Victorias electricity and gas markets, one of which
involves planning Victorias electricity Declared Shared Network (electricity DSN) and gas Declared
Transmission System (gas DTS), which provides a key link in the supply chain to the States 2.2
million electricity and 1.4 million gas customers.
Various gas and electricity market synergies are now making it increasingly appropriate to consider
both gas and electricity when planning either transmission network. Market mergers and acquisitions
are tending to link the markets organisationally, and government action to streamline regulation is
linking them institutionally, while at the same time, energy suppliers are pursuing potential gas
powered generation (GPG) opportunities, which is increasingly linking the two markets physically.
In response to these developments, the 2010 Victorian Annual Planning Report (VAPR), which
covers the stationary energy sector (reticulated natural gas and electricity), continues to reflect
emerging electricity and gas market synergies by combining gas and electricity information within
the same cover.
The combined planning approach
Combining the approach to planning the electricity and gas networks, presents numerous
challenges, including reconciling differing APR publication dates, planning horizons and forecasting
requirements.
The 2010 VAPR partially satisfies AEMOs obligations under Section 5.6.2A of the National
Electricity Rules (NER) and Rule 323 of the National Gas Rules (NGR), which require AEMO to
produce two planning documents for Victoria:
An annual planning report covering the electricity DSN is published by 30 June each year. This
report sets out the peak and annual demand forecasts, and reviews the adequacy of the
electricity DSN for the next 10 years.
An annual planning review covering the gas DTS is published by 30 November each year. This
review provides an assessment of the supply-demand outlook and the adequacy of system
capacity, as well as providing additional information about maintenance plans, gas reserves and
gas pipeline developments.
The combined VAPR, published in June, satisfies these requirements, with the exception of the
latest gas forecast information, which can only be prepared using the most recent winter
observations once the June-August peak winter period ends, and information about Liquefied
Natural Gas (LNG) usage for the following winter period. As in previous years, this information will
be published in the 2010 VAPR Update in November 2010, along with information about gas supply.
Navigating the VAPR
The VAPR uses colour coded section headings to assist with navigating the document. Blue
indicates subject matter involving gas, and red indicates electricity. Intermediate information is
neutrally identified to indicate more general content.
Key aspects of Victorias electricity and gas industries
Despite many similarities, there are still some fundamental differences between the gas and
electricity industry segments, including the different roles AEMO plays as:

electricity planner, where it plans and procures services and is therefore responsible for the
delivery of the system, and
gas planner, where it provides advice about network services, leaving final decisions and
investment to market participants.
Table 1-1 lists the comparative features of the electricity and gas industries in Victoria.
Summer peak electricity demand is a prominent feature driving electricity DSN investment. Gas DTS
investment, however, is driven by a winter day peak, with increased GPG gas demand during
electricity demand peaks presenting new challenges for the gas DTS, especially with the use of
linepack and other storage to cope with rapid gas demand variations.
In Victoria, two transmission asset owners dominate the market, with SP AusNet owning the
electricity DSN and APA Group owning the gas DTS. Jemena, TRUenergy, Origin Energy and
International Power own major inter-state gas interconnections and gas storage facilities.
Table 1-1 Comparative features of the electricity and gas industries in Victoria
Feature Electricity Gas
Industry
structure and
ownership
Private ownership in Victoria and South
Australia, and of generation and retail in
Queensland. High levels of government
ownership in other States
Active regulation of mergers and acquisitions
by the ACCC
Diverse company structures with some
generation/retail integration as well as
gas/electricity retail integration
Private ownership
Ring fencing of costs enforced by the ACCC
Some large, vertically integrated companies
Some integration of gas/electricity retail
Wholesale
market
National market spanning five regions,
aligned with State boundaries
Half-hour spot price defined ex-post, highly
variable
Production scheduled for the current day plus
the following 48 half-hour intervals
In Victoria, five major distributors and ten
transmission-connected generators
Parallel financial market to hedge spot prices
State-based
Victorian daily price defined ex-ante,
relatively stable
Production scheduled for current day and day
ahead
In Victoria, three major distributors, six
injection points
Long-term physical supply contracts
Move to Short-Term Trading Market
Transmission
contracts
Open access for generators at no cost
Location pricing signals, varied annually in
accordance with the NER, produce revenue
to match the amount determined by the
AER's economic regulation of transmission
businesses
Open access market carriage in Victoria,
various forms of contract carriage in other
States
Rates ($/GJ) for injection into and withdrawal
from the gas DTS are relatively stable
In other States, access to single pipelines is
regulated under the National Gas Access
regime and associated transport prices are
calculated under the national Gas Code or
determined by competition
Physical
market
Electricity cannot be stored, so supply and
demand must be balanced at all times
Long distance transmission losses can be
large at peak demand times
Gas can be stored, allowing balancing to be
carried out at (daily or within day) intervals
Transmission losses are minimal
(compressors create some shrinkage)


1.1 AEMOs planning documents
In 2010, AEMO will publish six planning documents, some originally published by AEMOs
predecessor organisations, and some altogether new publications. While individually satisfying
unique demands for energy market information from AEMOs various planning roles, a key aim has
been to ensure that their common elements provide a consistent and coherent message.
The VAPR satisfies AEMOs Victorian gas and electricity transmission planning roles. AEMO will
also publish the South Australian Supply and Demand Outlook (SASDO), outlining South Australian
electricity supply, demand and fuel information, at the same time as the VAPR.
In August, AEMO will publish the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), which provides an
outlook for electricity supply and demand in the National Electricity Market (NEM) for the next 10
years. The ESOO will provide a 10-year outlook again this year, focussing on years 3-10. This year
AEMO will also produce the Power System Adequacy report, which is a new publication focussing
on electricity supply and demand for the next two years.
In November, AEMO will publish the VAPR update, and by the end of the calendar year will also be
publishing its second Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the inaugural National
Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP).
Table 1-2 lists the six planning documents and the Power System Adequacy report to be produced
by AEMO in 2010, and the unique and common elements of each.

Transmission
assets
Power lines and cables
Transformation and switching stations
Ancillary facilities (reactive power support,
and series compensation for long lines)
Automatic control systems
Pipelines
Compressors
LNG storage
Underground storage
Termination and control facilities (city gates,
regulators, limiters, etc)
Capacity
constraints
Power line sag and conductor strength due to
heating
Transformer heating
Fault levels (short circuit currents that can be
safely interrupted)
Transient and other system stability criteria
Voltage maintenance
Linepack (gas storage in pipelines)
Pipeline operating pressure
(maximum/minimum limits) determined by
pipe diameter

Table 1-2 AEMOs planning documents
Victorian
Annual
Planning
Report
(VAPR)
South
Australian
Supply
and
Demand
Outlook
(SASDO)
Power
System
Adequacy
Report
Electricity
Statement of
Opportunities
(ESOO)
Victorian
Annual
Planning
Report
Update
(VAPR
Update)
National
Transmission
Network
Development
Plan (NTNDP)
Gas Statement
of
Opportunities
(GSOO)
Publication
date
By 30 June By 30 June By 31 August By 31 August By 30
November
By 31
December
By 31
December
Published
by
Planning
Dept
Planning
Dept
Operations
Dept
Planning Dept Planning
Dept
Planning Dept Planning Dept
Focus Victorian Gas
and
Electricity
South
Australian
Electricity
NEM
Electricity
NEM Electricity Victorian
Gas
NEM Electricity Eastern
Australian Gas
Outlook 10 years 10 years 2 years 10 years 5 years 20 years 20 years
Gas
forecasts
n/a n/a n/a n/a
Electricity
forecasts
n/a n/a
Scenario
planning
n/a n/a
Network &
modelling
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Market
modelling
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
1.2 About annual electricity and gas planning
1.2.1 About annual electricity and gas planning
Under Section 5.6.2A of the NER, AEMO is required to undertake an annual electricity planning
review and publish an annual planning report by 30 June each year. This review considers:
the forecast loads and overall demand provided by distribution network service providers
(DNSPs) and the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR)
planning proposals for future connection points
a forecast of constraints and any inability to meet network performance requirements, and
an analysis of all proposed augmentations to the electricity DSN.
Under Rule 323 of the NGR, AEMO is required to undertake an annual gas planning review that is
published by 30 November each year. This review considers:
forecasts of peak day, peak hour and annual gas demand
expansions or extensions to the gas DTS
an assessment on overall supply, demand and capacity, and
information on gas storage.
1.2.2 Planning information
Electricity planning information is intended to enable market participants and other interested parties
to formulate and propose options to relieve identified constraints, including options involving

components of local generation and demand-side participation (DSP), and any other options
providing economically efficient outcomes. In brief, this information includes:
an overview of the existing electricity DSNs adequacy to meet both actual and forecast maximum
demands (MDs)
a list of committed augmentations
forecasts of seasonal MD and annual energy for the next 10 years
analysis of potential electricity DSN constraints, and options to alleviate these constraints,
coupled with the benefits of upgrades/augmentations, and
an outlook for the next 10 years, based on the demand forecasts for 2019/20, taking into account
a series of supply scenarios for the purposes of establishing possible electricity DSN
augmentation requirements.
Gas planning information is provided for the primary purpose of allowing market participants and
interested parties to make informed decisions relating to planning pipeline or production facilities
and formulating market strategies. In brief, this information includes:
an overview of the gas DTS and current system operations and developments, and a review of
demand and supply for the year
peak day and annual gas supply and storage forecasts
peak day forecasts of the gas DTSs capacity to deliver gas supplies, including the demand-
supply-capacity outlook for the next five years
peak day and winter forecasts of LNG requirements for within-day balancing
a long-term network development outlook considering future system constraints, and
monthly demand forecasts and a monthly demand-supply outlook for the next twelve months.
While AEMO is required to provide planning information to the gas industry, it is not AEMOs role to
act on, or ensure that other parties act on, the information it provides, and AEMO does not direct
gas DTS augmentation.
1.3 Producing the VAPR
Figure 1-1 shows a summary of the VAPR production process. Taking over a year to complete, the
electricity planning process begins with the Victorian 10-year forecast update currently provided by
NIEIR. Prior to the publication of the VAPR, AEMO starts the annual fault level review, using data
from the Victorian distribution businesses (DBs) and SP AusNet, which establishes the 5-year fault
level forecasts. This data also enables the forecasting of terminal station demand.
The gas planning process begins by collecting 5-year forecasts from participants in Victoria. These
forecasts are published in the VAPR update before 30 November each year. Following the
publication of the VAPR update, AEMO begins the Custody Transfer Meter peak day forecast
production, which is used to develop scenarios for the 5-year and 10-year modelling work.
See also Chapter 8 for more information about AEMOs planning processes.

Figure 1-1 The VAPR production process

1.4 AEMOs Victorian electricity planning and development role
AEMO is the transmission network service provider (TNSP) for Victorias electricity DSN, as set out
under the NER. As the Victorian TNSP, AEMOs primary driver is to ensure the electricity
transmission networks long-term reliability for the transport of electricity between generation and
load centres.
1.5 AEMOs Victorian gas planning and development role
AEMO is the system operator and provides information on gas planning for Victorias gas DTS, as
set out under the NGR. A key driver for AEMO is to ensure the daily and long-term reliability of the
gas DTS, which transports gas between gas suppliers and customers.
Victorias gas industry
Outside Victoria, the wholesale supply of gas in eastern Australia is dominated by long-term, highly
customised bilateral gas supply contracts entered into on an infrequent basis with a limited number

May Jul Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Annual
Fault Level
Review
(AFL)
Victorian Terminal
Station Demand
forecasts (Statewide
P.O.C.)
Market
Modelling

Transmissio
n Network
Short Circuit
levels
Report
Published
10 year
demand
forecast
NIEIR
Update
Electricity
Section
Production

Electricity
Section
Production
10 year
deman
d
forecast
NIEIR
update
NTNDP

Connection Asset Planning
Transmission Connection
Planning Report

VAPR
Production
/Publicatio
n

Scenarios
Developme
nt
Gas Section
Production
5 year
gas
modelling

10 year
gas
modelling

VAPR
update
Production/
Publication
CTM Peak Day
Forecast
Production

Participant
Data update

Gas Section
Production

Constraint
Analysis

of end-users. Invariably these contracts are highly confidential. Historically there has also been a
tendency for producers operating under joint venture arrangements to market their gas jointly.
In 1999, the Victorian Government adopted a unique market model for Victoria, making one of
AEMOs legacy organisations (VENCorp) the independent system operator of both the physical spot
market and the gas DTS. As the independent system operator in 2010, AEMO:
balances gas supply and demand and transportation capacity on a daily basis through a centrally
co-ordinated scheduling process, and sets the market price, and
undertakes a number of other functions including identifying gas DTS constraints and forecasting
production and demand, as well as demand variances and demand peaks.
Victorias physical gas spot market
The Victorian spot market enables users to trade daily gas supply imbalances (the difference
between contracted gas supply quantities and actual requirements). The spot market is settled as a
net market. This means that market participants pay for the excess of actual withdrawals over actual
injections, or receive payment for the excess of actual injections over actual withdrawals. The spot
market determines the price paid or received.
The gas DTS operates as a network with a number of injection points including Longford, Iona,
VicHub, BassGas, Culcairn and the LNG facility at Dandenong. This system is owned by the APA
Group, and operates under an open access model independently operated by AEMO (which does
not require users to enter into capacity-based transportation contracts, unlike contract carriage).


The Short-Term Trading Market
In Victoria, the wholesale and retail gas markets will run in parallel with the emerging national gas
market, the Short-Term Trading Market (STTM). The STTM is a market for the trading of natural gas
at the wholesale level at defined hubs between pipelines and distribution systems.
The STTM will initially provide hubs in Sydney and Adelaide, and additional hubs are intended for
the future. Each hub is scheduled and settled separately, but all hubs operate under the same rules.
These hubs are the transfer points through which gas is transmitted via pipelines and facilities and
delivered to the distribution networks. All gas supplied through a hub is transacted in the STTM,
including gas that is supplied under existing long-term contracts. Gas is traded a day ahead of the
actual gas day, and the day-ahead price (the ex-ante market price) is applied to all gas that is
supplied according to the market schedules through the hub on the gas day. A market price is set
each day at each hub for clearing all trades in the ex-ante market. Anyone with the necessary
agreements and authorities is able to buy and sell gas in the STTM.
Previously, a retailer might purchase gas directly from a producer and pay someone to deliver its
gas to the network. With the STTM, shippers deliver gas to be sold in the market, and users buy
gas for delivery to consumers. The same organisation may also sell gas into the market and
purchase gas from the market, but it does so at the daily market price, selling under the same terms
as any other shipper, and buying under the same terms as any other user.
If an organisation has gas that is excess to its requirements, it can sell the gas the next day on the
open market, or if demand is higher than expected, it can bid to purchase the extra gas, when and if
it needs to. This gives participants more choice in purchasing gas supplies. Furthermore, price
transparency ensures that the price of gas set daily by the market properly reflects the true
supply-demand situation, which in turn provides a more reliable price indicator for future investment
in production, transmission, and distribution infrastructure.
The STTM will operate in conjunction with the underlying gas supply, transportation and network
contracts, while the physical operation of pipeline or network assets will be maintained by owners of
the infrastructure.
Subject to further development and approvals, the STTM is expected to commence in September
2010, after a market trial. The existing retail gas markets in New South Wales and South Australia
will operate in conjunction with the STTM.


1.6 Changes since 2009
Changes to the VAPR since 2009 are shown in Table 1-3.
Table 1-3 New content in 2010
2010 VAPR chapter Title Description of approach
The introduction now incorporates a description of the relationship between the
VAPR and AEMOs other planning documents
Chapter 2
Emerging
issues and
trends for
2010
This new chapter provides:
A summary of work to date on the AEMO and ElectraNet Joint
Interconnector Feasibility study. This study aims to identify options to
economically increase interconnector capacity to export power from South
Australia to other National Electricity Market (NEM) load centres. The study
has a 20-year outlook period, and covers both incremental and Greenfield
projects
A discussion of plans for electricity transmission collector hubs, prompted by
the large number of connections and connection proposals in Victorias south
west
A discussion of potential gas and electricity transmission investment
synergies and the consideration of gas transmission as an alternative to
electricity DSN network development
A review of the planning process undertaken by AEMO following the severe
summer bushfire season of 2008/09. Based on this, AEMO performed a
constraint assessment using a 5% probability of exceedence (5% POE)
demand forecast for the Rowville-Springvale 220 kV line. The review also
recommended further work in other areas, such as transmission outage
models and temperature models for transformer ratings
Chapter 3
Existing
network
adequacy
This chapter now includes:
A more explicit definition of the capability of the gas DTS, identifying the
impact operating pressure and system demand have on pipeline capacities
A discussion on the relationship between electricity DSN constraints and
Victorian price outcomes
Chapter 6 Fuel outlook
This new chapter describes the traditional fossil fuel outlook for Victorias
stationary energy sector.
Chapter 8
Planning
Overview
The scenarios used in the VAPR have been mapped to scenarios developed in
consultation with energy industry stakeholders for the NTNDP
Chapter 9
Transmission
development
This chapter now provides more information to assist in the development of
demand-side options for addressing electricity DSN constraints


1.7 Contacting AEMO
AEMO welcomes discussion regarding the issues raised in the VAPR. For more information,
contact:
AEMO Planning
Post: GPO Box 2008, Melbourne VIC 3001
Phone: 1300 361 011
Email: [email protected]


AEMO 2010 29 Chapter 2 Emerging Issues and Trends for 2010
Chapter 2 Emerging issues and trends for
2010
This chapter discusses topical transmission planning ideas and emerging trends, and provides
information on current thinking, including possible solutions to current planning issues covering both
electricity and gas. The topics cover the benefits of scale, coordination and the creation of various
options and approaches.
Three of the chapters topics the Joint Interconnector Feasibility study between the Australian
Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and ElectraNet, the discussion relating to potential gas and
electricity transmission investment synergies, and the plans for electricity transmission collector
hubs address these broad issues. The fourth topic a review of the planning process in light of
extreme hot weather addresses the specific planning challenges identified by the experiences of
February 2009.
This chapters content is based on areas of work in transmission planning that AEMO has been
involved with over the last 12 months, and is intended to provide general information to market
participants and other interested parties. This information is not definitive, and interested parties
seeking further information or clarification about any of the reviews, issues or observations
presented here can contact AEMO planning (see Chapter 1 for contact information).
In this chapter:
Section 2.1 discusses the AEMO and ElectraNet Joint Interconnector Feasibility study, which is
examining options to economically increase interconnector transfer capabilities between South
Australia and other National Electricity Market (NEM) load centres.
As well as highlighting the cooperation between AEMO and ElectraNet on an issue of potential
significance to National Electricity Market (NEM) transmission development, the study also
provides an example of the way AEMO would like to work with transmission network service
providers (TNSPs) as part of their annual planning reviews and AEMOs National Transmission
Network Development Plan (NTNDP) process to develop significant, large-scale project options.
Section 2.2 discusses the plans for electricity transmission collector hubs, which has been
prompted by the large number of connections and connection proposals in Victorias south west.
It has been included to provide an outline of AEMOs current thoughts on the most effective and
economical approach to their co-ordination.
Section 2.3 discusses potential gas and electricity transmission investment synergies, and the
feasibility of gas transmission as a viable alternative to electricity transmission network
development.
When planning the Victorian electricity Declared Shared Network (electricity DSN), AEMO has a
responsibility to consider alternatives to electricity transmission augmentations. Where AEMO
can identify viable options, it can facilitate the development of appropriate solutions. A clear
example of this is in considering the relative merits of developing either gas transmission
pipelines or radial electricity transmission lines closer to gas resources.
Section 2.4 discusses a review of the planning process undertaken by AEMO following the
severe summer bushfire season of 2008/09.
This review was conducted to establish whether existing planning methodologies are under-
estimating extreme temperature risks and if so, whether changes to these methodologies should
be considered and what may be required.


2.1 Joint planning feasibility study with ElectraNet
2.1.1 Introduction
The South Australian region possesses extensive renewable energy resources with significant
development potential. The extent to which these resources can be leveraged to meet the
challenges of climate change and a low carbon intensity future, however, may be limited by the
existing ability to export energy from South Australia.
This section provides information about the joint feasibility study being undertaken by ElectraNet Pty
Ltd
3
and AEMO, examining various transmission development options to economically increase
interconnector transfer capabilities between South Australia and other NEM load centres. It has
been included because of its relevance to Victoria, and to highlight the cooperation between AEMO
and ElectraNet on an issue of particular significance to NEM transmission development.
This work was initiated in December 2009 and commenced in February 2010 when AEMO and
ElectraNet agreed on its scope and principles, and set up a joint working group. The work is planned
to be finalised by September 2010.
The study considers a 20-year time horizon, and involves:
developing a range of feasible and cost-effective transmission development options
determining reasonable cost estimates (considered feasible from an approvals and construction
perspective) for each of the options proposed
developing reasonable market development scenarios and using simulation techniques to assess
each options economic merit, and
reporting on each options technical and economic feasibility.
The study also provides an example of the way AEMO would like to share information about
transmission development and work with the TNSPs as part of their annual planning reviews and
AEMOs National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP) process to develop significant,
large-scale project options.
2.1.2 Deliverables
At the conclusion of the feasibility study, ElectraNet and AEMO intend to publish a joint report
outlining the analysis and findings. Providing input into the NTNDP and future Victorian and South
Australian annual planning reports, the joint report will specifically indicate:
which options (if any) have a reasonable prospect of satisfying the Regulatory Investment Test -
Transmission (RIT-T)
areas where there is uncertainty about the assessed benefits or costs
which scenarios show higher and lower benefits for each option, and
the key assumptions and data the analysis is based on, so it can be validated by interested
parties.
The joint report will be a feasibility study, not a comprehensive investment test assessment.

3
The South Australian TNSP.

2.1.3 Project background
Two interconnectors currently connect Victoria and South Australia.
The Heywood AC interconnector involves a 275 kV AC link connected between the Heywood
275/500 kV terminal station in Victoria and the South East 275 kV substation in South Australia, and
has an upper thermal limit of 460 MW (set by the 500/275kV transformers at Heywood).
The Murraylink DC interconnector, with a capacity of 220 MW, involves a high voltage DC link
connected between the Red Cliffs 220 kV substation in Victoria and the Monash 132 kV substation in
South Australia, and suffers from existing limitations due to the nearby 132 kV network in South
Australia and the 220 kV network in Victoria (see the network map on the inside front cover of the
VAPR).
In terms of combined interconnector capability, power flow in the:
South Australia to Victoria direction can be limited by thermal limits of the nearby 132 kV network
in South Australia and oscillatory limits (the sum of the power flow on the Heywood AC and
Murraylink DC interconnectors must be less than or equal to 420 MW), and
Victoria to South Australia direction can be limited by the voltage or thermal limits of the 220kV
network and voltage stability in South Australia.
AEMO is in the process of reviewing the combined Heywood and Murraylink limit after a review by
ElectraNet indicated that it potentially can be increased beyond the current 420 MW. The results of
this review are expected to be published on the AEMO website by July 2010.
2.1.4 Study methodology
The feasibility study, which was stimulated by ElectraNets original findings, initially involved
reviewing the current performance of the interconnectors between Victoria and South Australia to
form the reference case. Viable options have since been identified to improve capacity, involving
either incrementally augmenting the existing network, or greenfield projects (new transmission
projects with no existing transmission infrastructure).
For both the incremental and greenfield options, market modelling (with an outlook period of up to 30
years using a range of scenarios similar to those described in Chapter 6) will identify the optimal
solutions by considering the transmission issues and the impacts on the electricity market.
2.1.5 Preliminary transmission options
Possible preliminary incremental augmentation options include the following:
The addition of a third 500/275 kV transformer at Heywood and reconfiguration of the Heywood
500 kV switchyard.
Dynamic line rating improvements for the:
Tailem Bend-South East 275 kV lines
South East-Heywood 275 kV lines, and
Robertstown-Monash 132 kV lines.
Additional static (shunt capacitors) and dynamic (SVC) reactive power support.
Series compensation for the Tailem Bend-South East 275 kV lines.
These augmentation options will also require some level of replacement or upgrade of existing
transmission network plant and equipment to facilitate increased interconnector capability.
Emergency control schemes may also be required to provide reliable and secure power system
operation at higher power transfer levels.
Possible preliminary greenfield options include the following:
A 500 kV AC double circuit line (with series compensation) from Wilmington, near Davenport in
South Australia, to Mt. Piper in New South Wales.

A bidirectional 500 kV DC link from Wilmington, near Davenport in South Australia, to Mt. Piper in
New South Wales.
A 500 kV double circuit line (with series compensation) from Tepko, near Tungkillo in South
Australia, to Yass in New South Wales. This will be routed via Horsham, Shepparton and
Wodonga.
A 500 kV AC double circuit line from Krongart, near Penola in South Australia, to Heywood in
Victoria.
These projects may also require the following supporting projects:
Reconstruction of the Davenport-Brinkworth-Para 275 kV line as a double line.
A Krongart-Tepko 275 kV double circuit line.
A Sydenham-Shepparton 500 kV AC double circuit line.
A South Morang-Dederang-Wagga-Bannaby 330 kV single circuit line, and
A Yass-Bannaby 500 kV AC double circuit line.
2.1.6 Next steps
AEMO has created a dynamic web-site
4
that enables comments to be made on the work-to-date.
The results of the joint planning feasibility study with ElectraNet will be reported in the second half of
2010.
2.2 Connecting generation clusters to the Victorian transmission
network: a technical perspective
2.2.1 Introduction
AEMO has reviewed the technical issues arising from connecting multiple generating systems, in
close proximity and within similar timeframes, to the transmission network supporting Regional
Victoria and the Victorian South-West Corridor.
This section provides a summary of the technical issues and the approach AEMO is currently
investigating for connecting new generation to this network. This information has been included due
to the large number of connections in Victorias south-west, and to outline AEMOs current thoughts
on their effective co-ordination. A solution is required in advance of a decision about the new Scale
Efficient Network Extensions (SENEs) currently being considered by the Australian Energy Market
Commission (AEMC) given the immediate needs of generators requiring connection to the Victorian
electricity DSN.
AEMOs options for connecting new generation in Victoria include:
dedicated terminal station connections
existing terminal station connections, and
developing collector hubs.
Developing collector hubs (which provide single connection points for multiple generators in close
proximity) is AEMOs preferred solution to meet this challenge.

4
See http://share.aemo.com.au/jfs

AEMO will keep interested parties notified of any relevant developments with regards to the
proposed concept of generation cluster connections and transmission hub collection (collector
hubs).
2.2.2 The current situation
AEMOs strategic objective is to develop an economical and technically robust approach to
connecting generation to the transmission network.
As the Victorian electricity DSN transmission network service provider (TNSP), AEMO receives and
typically processes connection applications on a case-by-case basis, each of which addresses the
short and long-term impact of its integration with the electricity DSN.
The technical requirements for connecting new generation primarily depend on the:
timing of the connection application
location of the connection
complexity of the connection arrangements and their flexibility for future development
impact on the electricity DSNs reliability, and
project commissioning order, relative to other projects connecting to the electricity DSN in the
same area.
National carbon policies are changing both the generation types being developed and the
connection locations, leading to increasing numbers of connection applications and enquiries from
potential generators in the process of developing generation proposals.
Additionally, there are a number of generation proposals that have been or are in the process of
being assessed by local councils or the Minister for Planning.
AEMO has received the equivalent of approximately 5,000 MW of Victorian transmission system
connection applications and enquiries. Of these, approximately 3,600 MW are expected to be
connected to the 500 kV lines between Portland and Geelong or the 220 kV lines out of Ballarat.
These proposals, which aim to capitalise on Victorias substantial wind and gas resources and the
existing transmission infrastructure along the south-western coast of Victoria and in the Ballarat
area, pose new challenges for transmission planning due to their dispersed nature and associated
uncertainty.
Potential future transmission network capability limitations mean AEMO will also possibly face the
following issues:
Maintaining the transmission networks reliability and continuity of power flow, particularly through
high-capacity interconnections.
Developing sufficient transmission capability, taking into account current connection applications
and expected future generation developments.
Ensuring timely availability of transmission capacity to connected generation.
Keeping the systems connection costs to a minimum by reducing the planned transmission
network outages required for connecting new generation to the transmission system.
The technical challenge for AEMO is to facilitate the connection of new generation at least cost,
while maintaining current levels of power quality and ensuring transmission network reliability. For
example, proposed wind generation developments may exceed the networks capability in the
Ballarat area (the Moorabool-Ballarat-Horsham 220 kV transmission lines) and between Moorabool
and Heywood (the Moorabool-Heywood 500 kV line).

2.2.3 Option 1 dedicated terminal station connection
AEMOs typical connection process is to establish a new terminal station at a particular location on
the generators request. New generators favour this approach when the existing terminal station is
either distant from its fuel source or requires substantial augmentation to enable the connection.
In these cases, AEMO adopts a facilitatory approach when connecting, which specifies that the
terminal stations configuration must not impede the connection of future generation at that location,
nor adversely affect transmission network reliability or system security.
A drawback of this approach is that a large number of generating systems connecting in relatively
close proximity will potentially affect reliability. The networks availability is also reduced by the
number of required planned outages when connecting new generation to the electricity DSN.
As a result, this arrangement presents significant potential costs for existing generators and does
not capture the economic benefits that can be obtained by sharing the connection assets.
2.2.4 Option 2 existing terminal station connection
Generation with highly transportable fuel may elect to connect at an existing terminal station. This
solution is technically simple when the terminal station has significant spare capacity and the
reliability or system security requirements (such as the ability to handle transmission system faults)
will not be violated.
The benefits of this approach, however, depend on the availability of a fuel resource near a terminal
station. When this is not the case, significant cost may be incurred from building either a fuel
transport structure from the resource site to a terminal station (e.g. a gas pipeline) or transmission
lines for transporting electricity generated from a location near the fuel resource to a terminal station
(e.g. wind-generated electricity).
2.2.5 Option 3 developing collector hubs
A collector hub basically provides a single transmission network connection for a number of
generating systems in close proximity. Connecting new generation to collector hubs at appropriate
locations within a particular area, like Regional Victoria or the South-West Corridor, provides the
following benefits:
Transmission network reliability is improved with fewer connection points.
There are fewer transmission outages during the construction and connection of generating
systems, and a likely reduction in the number of planned and unplanned outages.
Generation proponents can readily incorporate planned connection arrangements and readily
available infrastructure into their project planning.
Accommodating future connections and system augmentation is easier.
2.2.6 Collector hub location criteria
The proposed criteria for locating collector hubs include the following:
There is sufficient concentration of energy resources around the location to enable a generation
cluster.
They are close to an existing transmission corridor and align with future transmission
development plans.
The location minimises the connection costs for each generating system in the cluster.
The number of current generation enquiries, connection applications and projects with planning
application submissions to the Victorian Government for location in sufficient proximity.

The likelihood that generation within the cluster will increase its generating capacity in the future.
The ability of stakeholders to mitigate collector hub development environmental impacts.
Accessibility to the collector hub site for construction and associated construction transport
infrastructure (such as roads, bridges, etc.).
The availability of easements or land for the collector hubs construction and for connecting
transmission lines.
Based on these criteria, a collector hub is likely to be centrally located within a cluster of generating
systems, and closer to the largest generating system within the cluster. Centrally positioning a hub
reduces the cost of building higher-capacity lines and the overall loss in power transmission to the
collector hub.
2.2.7 AEMOs conclusion
AEMO considers the development of collector hubs to be an economical and technically robust
approach for dealing with the long-term technical challenges associated with connecting multiple
generating systems in close proximity and within the same timeframes.
To ensure the long-term reliability of increasing generation connection to Victorias electricity DSN,
AEMO is presently investigating the development of collector hubs along the 220 kV network in
Regional Victoria and the 550 kV network in the South-West Corridor.
2.3 Gas and electricity transmission synergies
2.3.1 Introduction
AEMO is receiving a significant number of connection enquiries and applications from new gas
powered generators (GPG) in response to climate change policies. Some of this generation will be
connecting to both the Victorian electricity Declared Shared Network (DSN) and the gas Declared
Transmission System (gas DTS), while others will only connect to the electricity DSN and via
dedicated pipelines to gas basins.
This section provides high-level information about AEMOs current considerations in terms of
facilitating economically rational and effective energy infrastructure investment decisions.
AEMO currently provides information that facilitates decisions for economically efficient investment
in gas markets. AEMO also plans, procures and directs augmentations for the electricity DSN. The
provision of information that enables the market to make fully informed and reasoned decisions, and
that minimises uncertainty, is critical to both these roles.
As a result, a balance is required between informing the market about the costs, risks, opportunities
and consequences of decisions that may affect gas markets and AEMOs own functions in regards
to planning and procuring electricity transmission services that deliver desired or required outcomes.
2.3.2 A historical perspective
Transmission investment planning, in both gas and electricity systems, has traditionally been
reactive. For example, some developments, such as the BLP pipeline, are supported by an
economic cost-benefit test while others are typically sized and constructed to suit the commercial
decisions of investors. Similarly, electricity transmission infrastructure has traditionally been
designed to meet forecast load growth based on a range of forecast scenarios.

As a result, energy planning to date has not involved making decisions that considered the relative
merits of investing in either gas or electricity infrastructure, or both.
This will become even more challenging as carbon policies require AEMO to consider optimal
investment strategies and options. For example, analysing electricity transmission augmentation
benefits under the RIT-T requires consideration as to whether the development or expansion of a
gas transmission pipeline to serve a generator or group of generators delivers greater benefits than
building a radial transmission line closer to a gas resource. In this example, it may be even more
efficient for gas transmission pipeline developments to be sized to serve a number of potential
GPGs. This is similar to the concept of Scale Efficient Network Extensions (SENEs) currently being
considered by the AEMC, or AEMOs proposed collector hub developments for the electricity DSN
(see Section 2.2 for more information). Both concepts attempt to provide the most economic
augmentations by pre-empting future developments.
2.3.3 Future opportunites
AEMO does not direct gas transmission augmentations. In order to play some part in facilitating
efficient investment outcomes, however, AEMO can provide information to the market.
The kind of information AEMO provides may potentially include the cost of constructing pipelines
based on different dimensions, land acquisition and environmental considerations through defined
parts of the state, and the potential capacity and line-pack outcomes of those developments, which
can then be compared to the costs and benefits of developing an electricity transmission alternative.
This approach will also require an improved information framework that considers the benefits, costs
and risks of pre-emptive transmission investments.
In the future, AEMO will need to work with pipeline owners and operators in Victoria, including non-
gas DTS participants, as it considers and assesses new electricity transmission network
developments.
2.4 Victorian planning review - extreme hot weather
In 2009, a series of extreme temperature and bushfire events resulted in a number of incidents
involving the Victorian electricity DSN. This section summarises the conclusions from the review of
AEMOs current electricity planning approach in the context of these events.
2.4.1 Introduction
Undertaken by Nuttall Consulting, the AEMO Heatwave/Bushfire reviews objective was to
recommend improvements to the probabilistic electricity transmission planning methodology applied
in Victoria, and specifically the associated assumptions and criteria (described in AEMOs planning
criteria - see Chapter 8, Section 8.2, for more information), as well as the design parameters
associated with procuring new transmission assets.
The data and processes of four main areas of Victorian planning methodology were reviewed:
electricity demand
asset ratings
outage events, and
maximum design temperatures.

A further aspect of the review included an analysis of the implications of climate change. As well as
input from AEMO, the review involved:
an industry survey of a number of national and international electricity transmission businesses to
explore views about planning for extreme temperatures and bushfire risk, and
a meeting with SP AusNet to explore issues associated with plant design parameters.
2.4.2 Electricity demand
AEMO bases its prediction of unserved energy on three separate maximum demand (MD) forecasts.
Each forecast is expressed as the probability that an MD will be exceeded in a particular year, which
for summer is largely related to the probability of high temperatures. The most onerous case
analysed by AEMO is the 10% probability of exceedence (POE) (or 1 in 10 year) MD.
Annual unserved energy is calculated for each of these three forecasts, and the most likely value
estimate is based on the average of the three.
The review considered several aspects of this planning methodology, covering the use of only three
MD forecasts, the preparation and use of annual hour-by-hour demand traces associated with each
forecast, and the weighted averaging approach used to determine the most likely costs of unserved
energy. Based on an analysis of AEMOs temperature and MD forecasting data, the review
established three key findings:
The MD does not always appear to plateau at the most onerous 10% POE MD case presently
analysed. Rather, there is a risk that the MD can continue to increase as the POE reduces, and
could be appreciably higher at the lowest probabilities. The 2% POE (or 1 in 50 year) MD, for
example, could be as much as 6% to 9% higher than the 1 in 10 year outcome.
The existing approach may underestimate the most likely unserved energy because
augmentation timings are sensitive to its accuracy, and the unserved energy can be associated
with higher levels of demand than the most onerous 10% POE MD case presently analysed.
The preparation of demand traces requires care (although the analysis does not suggest that the
existing traces are inappropriate). This is because the calculated unserved energy for a specific
MD forecast is sensitive to the assumed demand trace, which may lead to a significant over- or
under-estimation of the unserved energy associated with a particular MD forecast.
2.4.3 Asset ratings
A number of AEMO systems hold data on thermal ratings for specified plant and temperature
assumptions. A number of models are also used that define ambient temperature-rating
relationships for many transmission assets.
The main areas under review in this area included identification of gaps in AEMOs thermal rating
knowledge, and the accuracy of the existing models, particularly at high temperatures.
The review of AEMOs systems, coupled with discussions with SP AusNet to determine its views on
likely thermal rating effects at extreme temperatures, established three key findings:
Comprehensive temperature-rating data for transmission lines and associated substation
connection equipment exists and is used effectively by AEMO.
Some gaps in AEMOs knowledge-base for other asset types (such as transformers, reactive
plant, generating systems, and DC links like Basslink and Murraylink) do exist, but are unlikely to
present significant risks.
The temperature-rating models currently used by AEMO can be considered appropriate up to
around 46-47C. Above this level, it becomes less certain. It is unlikely; however, that any de-
rating (the fall in rating due to increasing temperature) above these temperatures will result in

significantly greater unserved energy, due to the very low probability these temperatures will
occur.
2.4.4 Outage events
AEMO uses a transmission line outage model that is independent of time, season or temperature.
The model derives from historical Victorian transmission network outage data.
The review of this area examined the relationship between high temperatures and the probability of
a Victorian transmission outage, and whether the outage models can allow for other information
associated with the asset state (e.g. age, condition, or loading).
The analysis of AEMOs historical outage database, coupled with discussions with SP AusNet to
determine its views on the performance of assets at high temperatures, established two key
findings:
A relationship exists between high temperatures and the probability of a Victorian transmission
outage. This may mean that AEMO is underestimating the risks associated with a specific MD
scenario. The extent of this issue, however, could not be determined within the scope of this
review and the feasibility of addressing it.
It may be too difficult to develop generic planning models that generally account for asset states
(e.g. their condition). A pragmatic approach, based on a case-by-case evaluation, may be more
appropriate.
2.4.5 Maximum design temperatures
AEMO uses a functional specification to define operating requirements when it procures new
transmission services. This specification requires a continuous rating up to 40C for facilities in the
Melbourne region, and 42C in rural areas. It also requires a supplier to define the de-rating that will
occur up to 47C.
The main issue for the review was whether these specifications are appropriate for existing climate
conditions and the associated planning risks.
The key finding from this review is that the maximum temperature parameters in AEMOs existing
functional specifications are appropriate for the current climate conditions.
2.4.6 Implications of climate change
Projections from the Australian Government indicate that maximum temperatures may rise by from
0.5-1.5C by 2030, and by 1.0-3.0C by 2050
5
. Importantly, these small changes in temperature
may result in more substantial changes in the likelihood of extreme temperatures.
Broadly, however, the projected increases in temperature (and associated probability changes) are
not expected to significantly affect the reviews findings in terms of the overall planning assumptions
(assumptions associated with electricity demand, asset rating, and outage events). The annual
planning process, which is largely based on recent historical data, is expected to track climate
change with a relatively insignificant lag.
Climate change projections are, however, far more relevant for the specification of new transmission
assets, which may have a life of at least 40-50 years. As such, the probability that temperatures will
exceed maximum temperature limits in the existing functional specification will increase significantly

5
Climate change in Australia Technical Report, available on www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au.

over the life time of new assets. Current climate change projections indicate that the maximum
temperature limits may need to be increased by 2-3C to ensure that the probability they will be
exceeded by the end of their life is similar to the probability faced by similar types of assets now.
2.4.7 Industry survey
Eleven transmission companies, both national and international, were surveyed as part of the
review. The aim of the survey, which involved questions on 10 broad areas of asset planning, was
to provide the review with additional support so the findings could be tested against industry
practice.
The responses indicated no significant matters contradicting the reviews findings.
2.4.8 Victorian planning review - extreme hot weather recommendations
Electricity demand
The Heatwave/Bushfire review found a number of areas where the existing planning methodology
may be under-estimating unserved energy due to extreme temperatures. Based on these findings, it
was recommended that AEMO undertake further investigations to assess their significance in terms
of actual planning decisions.
Asset ratings
The review found a number of other matters for consideration, which included:
requesting temperature capability information from Victorian generators and the DC
interconnectors
improving the joint planning protocol with SP AusNet
developing a transformer temperature-rating model for planning purposes
enhancing the tender evaluation process to explicitly consider the level of de-rating offered, and
increasing the maximum temperature limits in the specifications for new assets by 2-3C to allow
for the projected increase in extreme temperatures due to climate change.
2.4.9 Further work in response to the review
Electricity demand
As a specific response to the recommendations on electricity demand, AEMO has assessed the
impact of using a more onerous MD scenario than the present 10% POE (1 in 10 year) MD, by
assessing the RowvilleSpringvale 220 kV line loading with both a 10% POE MD as well as a 5%
POE (1 in 20 year) MD, and comparing the impact. See Chapter 9, Section 9.3.4, for more
information about this assessment.
The assessments key conclusions suggest the following:
A 5% POE MD advances the forecast energy at risk by approximately three years. Due to the
reduced probability of a 5% POE MD occurring, however, overall probability-weighted market
benefits are not expected to significantly differ for the different MDs considered. As a result, an
emerging transmission network limitation may be identified earlier, but the benefits of
augmentation to alleviate that limitation will still occur at approximately the same time.
The advance in timing of the forecast energy at risk is caused by a combination of increased line
loading due to a higher forecast MD, and reduced line ratings due to higher forecast
temperatures (resulting from using a temperature-dependant dynamic line rating).

Asset ratings
Although no significant risks were identified, AEMO will, where possible, seek to further its
understanding of the temperature effect on asset ratings across all transmission assets.
Outage events
AEMO will review historical data sets to assess confidence levels in the correlation between sets of
outage cases and ambient temperature, to establish the suitability of historical data set use as a
basis for updating outage models.
Maximum design temperatures
The maximum design temperatures currently being used are deemed to be suitable. AEMO will
discuss the ratings of new transmission assets with future asset providers.


AEMO 2010 Chapter 3 - Existing Network Adequacy 41
Chapter 3 Existing Network Adequacy
This chapter presents information about the existing electricity Declared Shared Network (the
electricity DSN) and its ability to meet 2009/10 summer maximum demand (MD) conditions, and the
gas transmission network for the 12-month period to December 2009. This information includes a
review of gas supply and demand, and a summary of gas Declared Transmission Network (gas
DTS) operations and developments.
Electricity
This chapter aims to assist existing or potential users of the electricity DSN to:
understand electricity DSN constraints, and
identify locations where the transmission network is:
currently robust, and further load or generation is unlikely to require immediate new investment, or
approaching the limits of its capability, and further load or generation is likely to require network
investment or alternative solutions, such as demand-side participation (DSP).
Gas
This chapter provides an overview (focussing on bulk gas transfers) of pipeline gas injections,
withdrawals, normal operating boundaries, and spare capacity. In this context:
gas DTS/pipeline capacity refers to the maximum demand that can be met on a sustained basis
under a defined set of operating conditions (see the Glossary for more information), and
normal pipeline operating boundaries refer to the normal range of injections into a pipeline due to
operational requirements and other contributing factors, as well as anticipated gas DTS
augmentations.
In this chapter:
Section 3.1 provides high-level information about the electricity DSN and gas DTS.
Section 3.2 provides information about Victorias electricity DSN layout, DSN loadings during the
forecast 2009/10 summer MD, transmission network adequacy at the time of the MD, fault levels
and the available headroom relative to the capability of existing circuit breakers at Victorian
terminal stations, and key terminal stations for review.
Section 3.3 provides information about committed augmentations in the Victorian electricity DSN.
Section 3.4 provides a basic description of Victorias gas DTS, its pipelines, injection points, and
gas regions.
Section 3.5 describes the peak day and annual demand and supply levels for 2009.
Section 3.6 provides a comparison of the levels of demand and supply for 2009.
Section 3.7 details the maximum allowable pipeline injections and contributing factors to pipeline
operating boundaries for each main pipeline within the gas DTS.
Section 3.8 details the various gas DTS developments commenced or concluded throughout the
year.


3.1 Network adequacy synergies
This section highlights specific network adequacy synergies relevant to the 2010 VAPR and the
relationship between electricity and gas.
The majority of Victorias electricity is generated in the Latrobe Valley from brown (and some black)
coal, via power stations operating at base load. Electricity is also generated in open-cycle gas
turbine (OCGT) power stations (a type of gas powered generation (GPG)) and at hydroelectric
stations in the alpine region of North East Victoria. This generation is predominantly operated at low
load factors to meet peak or rapidly fluctuating demand. An increasing number of wind turbines are
being built and their operation is dictated by wind levels. Electricity is also usually imported from
Tasmania and New South Wales, and exported to South Australia (although these flows can often
be reversed).
The majority of Victorias gas is supplied from Bass Strait via processing plants in Gippsland. Other
sources are also located off the south coast of Victoria, and cover the area from Bass Strait (east of
Melbourne) to the Otway Basin (west of Melbourne). Although Victoria has, via the gas DTS,
exported and imported gas to and from New South Wales in the past, this exchange recently fell to
minimal volumes. Other pipelines also link the gas DTS to New South Wales, South Australia and
Tasmania, enabling significant gas flows between the States.
While there are significant points of electricity and gas demand spread throughout Victoria, the
majority of this demand derives from the Greater Melbourne and Geelong region. As a result, both
transmission networks:
are characterised by major energy flows and associated network development challenges around
Greater Melbourne and Geelong, and
have major routes that run due east, north, and south west of Melbourne. Other key centres
linked by both networks include Ballarat and Bendigo.
The capital base valuations for each network are:
$2,191 M
6
for the electricity DSN, and
$524 M
7
for the gas DTS.
A map of both networks can be found on the inside front cover of the VAPR.
3.1.1 The Victorian electricity Declared Shared Network
Victorias electricity transmission infrastructure can be broadly described as a combination of the
following elements:
Infrastructure in the greater metropolitan area of Melbourne and Geelong to deliver electricity to
distribution networks spread through the various cities and suburbs in this region.

6
AER (January 2008), SP AusNets Transmission Determination 2008/09 2013/14 Final Decision, p.7.

7
ACCC (14 November 2007), Draft Decision on the Revised Access Arrangement, GasNet, p.14.

Three major electricity transmission corridors (Eastern, Northern and South West) to move bulk
energy to the major demand centres and to and from other National Electricity Market (NEM)
regions.
Infrastructure to deliver energy to provincial cities and other demand centres in the regional areas
of the State.
A diagram of the Victorian electricity DSN can be found in the fold-out section at the back of the
VAPR. The diagram shows Victorias electricity DSN, comprising various transmission lines and
transformers linking power stations to the distribution system, and electrical equipment at
approximately 50 terminal stations across the State. The transmission lines operate at a range of
voltages:
500 kV transmission primarily transports bulk electricity from generators in the Latrobe Valley to
Melbourne (a major load centre), and then on to the major smelter load and interconnection with
South Australia
330 kV transmission interconnects with the New South Wales region
275 kV transmission interconnects with the South Australian region via Heywood
two new High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) interconnections now form a second connection
with South Australia via Red Cliffs and a connection with Tasmania, and
220 kV transmission supplies the metropolitan area and major regional cities.
The transmission lines cover a total circuit distance of approximately 6,000 kilometres.
3.1.2 The Victorian gas Declared Transmission System
The gas DTS comprises pipelines extending from Longford in the east of Victoria, across to Portland
in the south west, and northwards to Culcairn in New South Wales. The main gas DTS pipelines
include the:
Longford to Melbourne pipeline (Longford-Dandenong-Wollert)
South West Pipeline (SWP) (Brooklyn-Geelong-Iona)
New South Wales interconnect (Wollert-Wodonga-Culcairn), and
Western Transmission System (WTS) from Iona to Portland (integrated into the gas DTS in 2003).
See also Chapter 7 for more information about gas transmission capacity.
Pipelines forming part of the gas DTS but not representing main corridors includes the:
Dandenong-West Melbourne and South Melbourne-Brooklyn pipelines, and
Ballarat pipeline (Brooklyn-Ballarat-Bendigo).
A diagram of the gas DTS pipelines can be found in the fold-out section at the back of the VAPR.
Cost structures
Transmission costs constitute between 3% and 7% of the total delivered cost for electricity and gas.
Although this total delivered cost has grown over the years, the relative cost component percentages
have largely remained the same. In the future, however, these cost structures may change as
emissions costs are incurred by suppliers, increasingly remote gas sources are introduced, and as
emerging transmission technologies become cost competitive.

3.2 Electricity 2009/10
This section presents a basic description of the Victorian electricity DSN, and details of its
performance under the peak demand experienced on 11 January 2010.
The purpose of this section is to assist potential or existing network users to understand
transmission network constraints, and identify locations where the network is:
currently robust and unlikely to require new investment in the near future, and
approaching the limits of its capability, and further load is likely to require investment or an
alternative solution like demand-side participation (DSP).
3.2.1 The Victorian electricity Declared Shared Network
The Victorian electricity DSN has developed and evolved from the early parts of the twentieth
century when the Victorian Government sought to take advantage of Victorias large coal reserves in
the Latrobe Valley.
In 1917 the Brown Coal Advisory Committee recommended establishing an Electricity Commission
to develop Victorias brown coal reserves, and construct a power station and transmission lines. This
led to the establishment of the State Electricity Commission of Victoria (SECV).
The first capital works carried out by the SECV involved developing the Yallourn Power Station,
briquette factory, and open-cut brown coal mine in the Latrobe Valley. Expansion was also carried
out at the Newport Power Station, which was fuelled by imported black coal and Yallourn briquettes.
Work on hydroelectric power also commenced with the Rubicon Hydroelectric Scheme to the north-
east of Melbourne.
Todays Victorian transmission network comprises various transmission lines and transformers that
link power stations to the distribution system. Operating at voltages of 500 kV, 330 kV, 275 kV, and
220 kV, the 500 kV transmission primarily transports bulk electricity from generators in the Latrobe
Valley in Victorias east to the major load centre of Melbourne, and then onto the major smelter load
and interconnection with South Australia in the west. Strongly meshed 220 kV transmission services
the metropolitan area and major regional cities of Victoria, while the 330 kV transmission
interconnects with New South Wales. The 275 kV transmission provides for the interconnection with
South Australia. Victoria also has direct current (DC) interconnection with South Australia and
Tasmania.
The electricity transmitted through the extra high voltage transmission is converted to lower voltages
at terminal stations where it then supports the distribution system. There are a total of 58 terminal
stations and 144 transformers in Victoria. The total circuit distance covered by transmission lines is
approximately 6,600 kilometres.
3.2.2 Victorian electricity Declared Shared Network loading
Sections 3.2.3 to 3.2.7 describe the Victorian electricity DSN, broken down into the following regions:
Eastern Corridor
South-West Corridor
Northern Corridor
Regional Victoria.

Each section includes a transmission network diagram indicating how close the particular network
elements were to their thermal limits under the peak load condition for 2009/10, which occurred at
16:00 AEDST (15:00 AEDT) on 11 January 2010.
In each diagram, the line and transformer loadings are shown as a percentage of their continuous
ratings
8
, with the:
first figure representing system normal operation (intact, or N elements in service)
second figure representing the maximum loading on a network element following the loss of the
most critical network element (leaving N-1 elements in service)
line loading figures included with the relevant line (the upper figure representing N, the lower
figure representing N-1), and
transformer loadings included in a table.
Although some elements show a contingency (N-1) loading greater than 100% of the continuous
rating, these overloads are within short-term ratings. A range of post-contingent actions, using
automatic controls or remote manual intervention (for example, rescheduling generation,
reconfiguring the network, and/or load shedding) ensure the transmission system remains in a
satisfactory operating state after a critical contingency.
The percentage loadings do not reflect other limitations that may result from stability or voltage
collapse considerations.
3.2.3 Eastern Corridor
The Eastern Corridor connects the greater Melbourne load centre to generation in the Latrobe
Valley. One of the oldest electricity corridors to Melbourne, it still dominates Melbournes electricity
supply, despite electrical connection to hydroelectric schemes to the north and to the adjoining NEM
regions.

8
A continuous rating represents the maximum MVA loading an item of plant can indefinitely carry. These ratings assume a
44.3C ambient temperature, consistent with hot summer conditions that are likely to produce a maximum demand. Line
ratings are also based on the standard 0.6 m/s wind speed, except in some cases where wind monitoring is installed and
ratings based on 1.2 m/s wind speed typically apply on hot days.

Figure 3-1 shows the electrical layout of the Eastern Corridors electricity transmission network
assets.
Figure 3-1Eastern Corridor

With the installation of new generation, constraints may emerge (see Chapter 9 for more information
about transmission network development and constraints).
3.2.4 South-West Corridor
The South-West Corridor connects the Greater Melbourne and Geelong load centres with Heywood,
Portland, and South Australia. Although 220 kV transmission was originally established to supply
load to South Western Victoria, 500 kV transmission was subsequently established to supply the
Portland aluminium smelter. The last 25 years have seen this corridors role develop, with electricity
connections made to South Australia. Figure 3-2 shows the electrical layout of the South-West
Corridors electricity transmission network assets.
Rowville
Bass Link Loy Yang
Cranbourne
South
Morang
Yallourn
Jeeralang
Morwell
Hazelwood
Loy Yang
Loy Yang Gas
Tasmania
41,27
71,70
16
44
34
40
45
58
67,68,68
77,79,79
4,12
40,82
Transformers: N N-1
South Morang 500kV/330kV F2 19% 33%
South Morang 330kV/220kV H1 71% 82%
Rowville 500kV/220kV A1 79% 93%
Hazelwood 500kV/220kV A1 57% 94%
55
65
38,33,33
57,50,49
37
38
10
16
42
47
21
22
28,24
45,36
57,22
75,64

Figure 3-2South-West Corridor

There is considerable spare thermal capability in the South-West Corridor, compared with the
existing supply requirements for the Portland smelter, Geelong and Regional Victoria load, and
transfer to South Australia through Heywood. Stability and power quality issues, however, may limit
power flows ahead of thermal considerations.
3.2.5 Northern Corridor
The Northern Corridor includes the interconnection to the New South Wales region. This corridor
also includes electrical transmission for the Victorian hydroelectric stations of Dartmouth, Eildon,
McKay Creek and West Kiewa.
Figure 3-3 shows the electrical layout of the Northern Corridors electricity transmission network
assets, and includes:
330 kV transmission lines between Dederang and Murray
330 kV transmission lines from Dederang to Wodonga to Jindera (New South Wales)
330 kV transmission lines between Dederang and South Morang, and
220 kV transmission lines to connect the Victorian hydroelectric stations between Dederang and
the Greater Melbourne and Geelong load centre.

South Australia
Moorabool Sydenham
Heywood
Portland
8,10
17,17
16,18
34,34
13
23
26
48
Transformers: N N-1
Heywood 500kV/275kV M1 11% 25%
Heywood 500kV/275kV M2 15% 25%
Moorabool 500kV/220kV A1 45% 74%

Figure 3-3Northern Corridor

The apparent N-1 overloading of the:
Dederang 330 kV/220 kV transformers are within short-term ratings and are managed by the
DBUS-Transformer scheme for loss of a DDTS transformer
Dederang to Murray 330 kV lines are within short-term ratings and are managed by the DBUS-
Line scheme for loss of a Dederang-Murray 330 kV line, and
Dederang to South Morang 330 kV lines are within short-term ratings.
The overload is currently mitigated by generation rescheduling and load shedding.
With the installation of new generation, or increases in the interconnector capacity, constraints may
emerge (see Chapter 9 for more information about transmission network development and
constraints).
3.2.6 Greater Melbourne and Geelong
The infrastructure in and around the greater metropolitan area encompassing Melbourne, Geelong
and the Mornington Peninsula comprises two classes of assets in a classic demand centre
configuration including an:
outer 500 kV high-capacity ring around most of the territory being supplied, and
inner 220 kV ring and radial connections (mainly supplied from the outer ring) to connection points
spread throughout the area.
Figure 3-4 shows the electrical layout of Greater Melbourne and Geelongs electricity transmission
network assets.
Thomastown
South
Morang
New South Wales
New South Wales
Wodonga
Dederang
Dartmouth
McKay Creek
Eildon
Mt. Beauty
West Kiewa
88
-
15
30
70
112
10
51
64
74
74
-
3
-
Transformers: N N-1 N-1(1)
Dederang 330kV/220kV H1 77% 112% 77%
Dederang 330kV/220kV H2 58% 83% 58%
Dederang 330kV/220kV H3 55% 81% 55%
__________________________________________
Note (1): DDTS 330 kV bus split arrangement is operated f or:
1. Outage of a DDTS MSS 330 kV line.
2. Outage of a DDTS 330/220kV transf ormer.
47
67
15
33
54,53
73,73
Jindera
Murray
(Ref er Note 1)
Bogong
91
-

Figure 3-4Greater Melbourne and Geelong

With the installation of new generation or load connection, constraints may emerge (see Chapter 9
for more information about transmission network development and constraints).
3.2.7 Regional Victoria
Victorias regional areas are mainly served by a 220 kV transmission network that delivers energy to
provincial cities and regional load centres.
A number of Regional Victorias transmission lines also form parallel paths with the Northern
Corridor, and are significantly influenced by import and export levels between Victoria and New
South Wales, and to a lesser extent by the level of demand at Regional Victoria terminal stations, as
well as the amount of transfer across the HVDC interconnector between Berri in South Australia and
Red Cliffs in Victoria.
Figure 3-5 shows the electrical layout of Regional Victorias electricity transmission network assets.
Rowville
Brunswick
West
Melbourne
Keilor
Malvern
Richmond
Springvale
Ringwood
Templestowe
Heatherton
East Rowville
Cranbourne
Tyabb
Western Port
Thomastown
Fisherman's
Bend
Newport
Altona
Brooklyn
Geelong
Point Henry
Anglesea
Moorabool Sydenham
South
Morang
26
48
35
47
52
-
9
16
1
8
47
53
4
11
23
40
19
37
25
39
43
87
30
39
18
42
24
38
58
64
34
67
34
58
43
87
Transformers: N N-1
Keilor 500kV/220kV A2 48% 54%
Keilor 500kV/220kV A3 48% 54%
Keilor 500kV/220kV A4 48% 54%
Cranbourne 500kV/220kV A1 62% 86%
22
46
Laverton
North
30
59
40
49
48
91
47
95
34
65
22,21
32,32
10
15
21
22
20,19,20
35,34,35
10,23
25,34
20,15
34,34
54,10
58,36
36,7
39,28
55,55
88,87
77,61
99,72
51,48
72,72

Figure 3-5 Regional Victoria

The apparent N-1 overloading of the following components are addressed in the transmission
network development plan:
The Dederang 330 kV/220 kV H1 transformer is within its short-term rating and is managed by the
DBUS-Transformer scheme for loss of a Dederang transformer, and
The Shepparton to Glenrowan 220 kV No. 3 line is within its short-term rating and is managed by
rescheduling generation and load shedding.
3.2.8 Network adequacy at time of maximum demand
Demand at the time of the system snapshot for the 2009/10 summer was 9,916 MW, which was
close to the 10% POE summer scheduled MD of 9,918 MW.
Taken at 15:00 AEST (16:00 AEDT) on 11 January 2010, the system snapshot was as follows:
Victorian native demand 9,916 MW
Ambient temperature 42.3 C
Import from New South Wales 170 MW
Import from Tasmania 590 MW
Export to South Australia (HYTS link) 76 MW
Export to South Australia (Murraylink) 46 MW
Murray generation 1,497 MW
The 2009/10 MD occurred in the half hour ending at 16:00 AEST (17:00 AEDT) on 11 January 2010,
with a total Victorian native demand of 10,143 MW (half-hourly average).
Moorabool
Ballarat
Horsham
Kerang
Bendigo
Red Cliffs
Shepparton
Glenrowan
South Australia
New South Wales
Dederang
Fosterville
Terang
11
27
34
88
42
70
23
63
67
88
13
27
40
45
12
37
Transformers: N N-1 N-1(1)
Dederang 330kV/220kV H1 77% 112% 77%
Dederang 330kV/220kV H2 58% 83% 58%
Dederang 330kV/220kV H3 55% 81% 55%
________________________________________________
Note (1): DDTS 330 kV bus split arrangement is operated f or:
1. Outage of a DDTS MSS 330 kV line.
2. Outage of a DDTS 330/220 kV transf ormer.
48
63
46
64
53
72
46,63
78,108
49,34
91,53
Waubra
48
63
53
89

The Victorian electricity DSN has been economically designed to support an MD of approximately
10,800 MW, depending on the availability of generation and import from Tasmania via Basslink. The
transmission network was operated satisfactorily within its design capability during the year.
3.2.9 Impact of Victorian transmission constraint equations
This section presents information about the most frequently binding Victorian transmission constraint
equations (and the average Victorian spot price at the time) for 2008 and 2009. This is the first time
the VAPR presents this information (representing another aspect of electricity DSN capability), which
is provided as a high-level overview relating to the impact of transmission constraint equations
across all periods. Only thermal, voltage stability and oscillatory stability constraint equations were
considered.
Fully assessing the market impacts relating to binding constraint equations theoretically requires
relaxing the relevant constraint equation and re-running a National Electricity Market Dispatch
Engine (NEMDE) simulator. The relaxation (or removal) of a binding constraint equation that
coincides with high spot market prices, however, may not result in lower market prices. For
example, relaxing binding Constraint Equation A may cause Constraint Equation B to bind, which
may also impact market price and dispatch outcomes. Where relaxation does not lead to lower price
outcomes, the market impact assessment should also consider relaxing the constraint equations that
bind in the simulated re-run.
The 2010 VAPR does not provide this assessment.
Binding Victorian transmission constraint equations, 2008
Figure 3-6 shows the 21 most frequently binding Victorian constraint equations for 2008. Three are
voltage stability constraint equations, six are transient stability constraint equations, and twelve are
thermal constraint equations.
Figure 3-7 shows the correlation between constraint equations binding in 2008 and the average
Victorian spot price (on a logarithmic scale). This shows that in 2008, transient stability and voltage
stability constraint equations bind at prices below $100/MWh, and thermal constraint equations bind
at all price levels.
Table 3-1 lists a description of each constraint equation and the network limit it defines.
Binding Victorian transmission constraint equations, 2009
Figure 3-8 shows the 20 most frequently binding Victorian constraint equations for 2009. Five are
voltage stability constraint equations, four are transient stability constraint equations, and eleven are
thermal constraint equations.
Figure 3-9 shows the correlation between constraint equations binding in 2009 and the average
Victorian spot price (on a logarithmic scale). This shows that in 2009, a large number of constraint
equations bind when the price is less than $100/MWh, and that transient stability constraint
equations bind at lower prices than thermal constraint equations, which bind at all price levels.
Table 3-2 lists a description of each constraint equation and the network limit it defines.

Figure 3-6 Binding Victorian transmission constraint equation hours, 2008

Figure 3-7 Binding Victorian transmission constraint equation hours and average Victorian
spot prices, 2008

-
50
100
150
200
250
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U
H
o
u
r
s

B
i
n
d
i
n
g

Thermal Transient Stability Voltage Stability
-
50
100
150
200
250
1 10 100 1,000 10,000
H
o
u
r
s

B
i
n
d
i
n
g
Average VIC Spot Price When binding ($/MWh)

Table 3-1 Binding Victorian transmission constraint equations, 2008 (shown in Figure 3-6)
Label Constraint equation Definition
A V::S_NIL
Victoria to South Australia stability limit for loss of one Northern Power Station generator
due to a 2-phase to ground fault close to the generator
B S>>V_NIL_SETX_SETX
Avoid overloading the remaining South East 275/132 kV transformer given the trip of one
South East 275/132 kV transformer (feedback constraint)
C S>V_NIL_NIL_RBNW
Limit power flows from South Australia to Victoria on Murraylink to avoid overloading
North West Bend to Robertstown 132 kV line.
D V::N_NILVE_BL_R
When Basslink is exporting to Tasmania, limit Victorian interconnector power flows and
Victorian generation to avoid transient instability for fault and trip of the Hazelwood to
South Morang 500kV line, radial mode at Hazelwood
E H^^V_NIL_1_P
Limit Snowy to Victoria power flows and Snowy generation to avoid voltage collapse for
the loss of the largest Victorian generating unit, 3/5 or 2-5 tied parallel modes or modified
radial mode with 1-2 tied
F N::H_KC_VC1
New South Wales to Snowy Transient Limit for situation where one Kemps Creek SVC
(static VAR compensator) is out of service
G T>>T_NIL_BL_220_6B
For Basslink in service, avoid overloading the Palmerston to Sheffield 220kV line (flow to
South) for loss of a Sheffield to Georgetown 220kV line (feedback constraint)
H S>>V_NIL_DVBG_DVBR
Limit power flows on Murraylink and South Australia generation to avoid overloading the
Davenport to Brinkworth 275 kV line for trip Davenport to Bungama line
I H>>H-NIL_C
Avoid overloading the Upper Tumut to Murray (65) transmission line on Lower Tumut-
Murray(66) trip (feedback constraint)
J V>>V_NIL_2A_R
Limit Victorian interconnector power flows and Victorian generation to avoid pre-
contingent overloading the South Morang 500/330kV (F2) transformer, Yallourn unit 1 in
500kV mode, radial mode at Hazelwood
K N^^V_NIL_1_P
Limit power flows from New South Wales to Victoria, Victorian generation and New South
Wales generation to avoid voltage collapse for loss of the largest Victorian generating
unit, 3/5 or 2-5 tied parallel modes or modified radial mode with 1-2 tied
L V>>V_DDTX_A
When Dederang No.2 or No.3 330/220kV transformer is out of service, the constraint
limits Victorian generation and Victorian interconnector power flows to avoid pre-
contingent overload of the Dederang No.1 transformer
M V::N_NILQE_BL_R
When Basslink is exporting to Tasmania, constraint limits Victorian interconnectors,
power flows from Queensland to New South Wales on QNI and Victorian generation to
avoid transient instability for fault and trip of a Hazelwood to South Morang 500kV line,
radial mode at Hazelwood
N S>V_NWRB2_RBNW1
When the North West Bend to Robertstown No2 line is out of service, the constraint limits
South Australia to Victoria power flows on Murraylink to avoid overloading the
Robertstown to North West Bend 1 line
O V::N_NILVF_BL_R
When Basslink is exporting to Tasmania, limits power flows on Victorian interconnectors
and Victorian generation to avoid transient instability for fault and trip of a Hazelwood to
South Morang 500kV line, radial mode at Hazelwood
P S>>V_XCG_TUTB_PATX
When the Cherry Gardens to Tailem Bend & Cherry Gardens to Tungkillo 275kV lines are
out of service and the Cherry Gardens to Mt barker 132 kV line is out of service, the
constraint avoids overloading Para 275/132kV transformer on trip of Tungkillo to Tailem
Bend (feedback constraint)
Q V>V_HWTS_TX1_PAR_3-5
Outage of Hazelwood #1 or #2 500/220kV transformer, 3-5 Parallel, Jeeralang split with
Jeeralang B connected to Hazelwood #1 or #2 220kV bus, avoid O/L Hazelwood to
Rowville #1 and #2 220kV lines for loss of Hazelwood #2 or #1 500/220kV transformer
R V>V_NIL_RADIAL_1-2_5
Limits Yallourn unit 1 + Hazelwood + Jeeralang + Bairnsdale + Morwell to avoid
overloading the Hazelwood 500/220kV A3 transformer given the trip of A4 transformer,
Yallourn unit 1 in 500kV mode, Hazelwood Radial Mode with 1&2 busses tied (3&4
busses remain split)
S V::S_CGMB_NPS
When the Cherry Gardens to Mt. Barker 132kV line is out of service; the constraint is the
Victoria to South Australia transient stability limit given the trip of Northern Power Station
T V^SML_NSWRB_2
When the NSW Murraylink runback scheme is out of service, constraint limits power
flows from Victoria to South Australia on Murraylink to avoid voltage collapse for loss of
Darlington Pt to Buronga (X5) 220kV line
U H>>H-NIL_O
Avoids Upper Tumut to Murray(65) line overloading on Lower Tumut-Wagga(051) +
970,990,99M ex_Yass lines trips (feedback constraint)


Figure 3-8 Binding Victorian transmission constraint equation hours, 2009

Figure 3-9 Binding Victorian transmission constraint equation hours and average Victorian
spot prices, 2009

-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
H
o
u
r
s

B
i
n
d
i
n
g

-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 10 100 1,000 10,000
H
o
u
r
s

B
i
n
d
i
n
g
Average VIC Spot Price When binding ($/MWh)
Oscillatory Stability Thermal Transient Stability Voltage Stability

Table 3-2 Binding Victorian transmission constraint equations, 2009 (shown in Figure 3-8)
Label Constraint equation Definition
1 V>>V_NIL_2B_R
Limit Victorian interconnector flows and generation to avoid pre-contingency
overloading the South Morang 500/330kV (F2) transformer when Yallourn Unit 1
is in 220kV mode & Hazelwood in radial mode
2 V^^S_NIL_NPS_SE_OFF
Victoria to South Australia Long Term Voltage Stability limit (South East Capacitor
out of service) for the loss of one of Northern Power Station generator
3 V::S_NIL
Victoria to South Australia Transient Stability limit for the loss of one Northern
Power Station generator due to a 2 phase to ground fault close to the generator
4 N^^V_SM_SCAP_R
In place for the South Morang 330kV series capacitor being out of service to limit
New South Wales to Victoria power flows and Snowy generation to avoid voltage
collapse following the trip of the largest Victoria generating unit in radial mode
5 V::N_SMCSVE_R
In place for the South Morang 330kV series capacitor being out of service to limit
Victorian generation and Victorian interconnector power flows to avoid transient
instability for the fault and trip of a Hazelwood to South Morang 500kV
transmission line in radial mode
6 S>V_NIL_NIL_RBNW
Limit South Australia to Victoria power flows on Murraylink to avoid overloading
the North West Bend to Robertstown 132kV transmission line
7 V>>V_NIL_2A_R
Limit Victorian interconnector power flows and Victorian generation to avoid pre-
contingent overloading of the South Morang 500/330kV (F2) transformer, when
Yallourn unit 1 is in 500kV mode & radial mode at Hazelwood
8 V::N_SMCSVD_R
In place for South Morang 330kV series capacitor being out of service to limit
Victorian generation and Victorian interconnector power flows to avoid transient
instability for fault and trip of a Hazelwood to South Morang 500kV line in radial
mode
9 N>>N-MNMP_ONE_1
In place for the Marulan to Mt. Piper (35 or 36) line being out of service to avoid
Mt Piper to Wallerawang 330kV line (70) overloading given the outage of the Mt
Piper-Wallerawang 330kV line (71) (feedback constraint)
10 V>V_NIL_4
Limits Hazelwood units 3, 4 & 5 to avoid an overload of the Hazelwood 500/220kV
No.1 transformer when Hazelwood is in radial mode
11 S>>V_NIL_SETX_SETX
Avoid overloading the remaining South East 275/132 kV transformer given the trip
of one of the South East 275/132 kV transformers (feedback constraint)
12 N^^V_NIL_1
Limits power flows from New South Wales to Victoria, Victorian generation and
NSW generation to avoid voltage collapse given the loss of the largest Victorian
generating unit
13 V^^S_TBCP_NPS_SE_OFF
For the outage of the Tailem Bend 100 MVAr Capacitor Bank; the constraint is a
Victoria to South Australia Long Term Voltage Stability limit (South East Capacitor
out of service) for loss of one Northern Power Station generator
14 V^SML_NSWRB_2
When the New South Wales Murraylink runback scheme is out of service, the
constraint limits Victoria to South Australia on Murraylink power flows to avoid
voltage collapse for the loss of the Darlington Point to Buronga (X5) 220 kV line
15 N>>V-NIL_O
Constraint prevents overloading the Upper Tumut to Murray (65) given the Lower
Tumut-Wagga(051) + 970,990,99M ex_Yass lines tripping (feedback constraint)
16 T>>T_NIL_BL_220_6B
When Basslink is in service, avoid overloading the Palmerston to Sheffield 220kV
transmission line (for flows to South) given the loss of a Sheffield to Georgetown
220 kV transmission line (feedback constraint)
17 V::N_SMCSQE_R
When the South Morang 330 kV series capacitor is out of service, the constraint
limits Victorian generation and Victorian interconnector power flows to avoid
transient instability for fault and trip of a Hazelwood to South Morang 500kV line in
radial mode
18 S>>V_NIL_RBTX_WTMW4
Limit power flows from South Australia to Victoria on Murray Link and South
Australian generation to avoid overloading the Waterloo - MWP4 transmission line
given the trip of one Robertstown Transformer
19 S>VML_NWCB6023_TX2
For the outage of the North West Bend_CB6023, limit power flows from South
Australia to Victoria on Murraylink to avoid North West Bend transformer#2
overloading given the trip of the North West Bend - Robertstown transmission line
20
V>>V_HWTS_TX3_3-
5MOD
With the outage of Hazelwood #3 or #4 500/220kV transformer, 3-5 Parallel,
Jeeralang split with JLGS A connected to Hazelwood #3 or #4 220kV bus, the
constraint avoids overloading the Hazelwood #4 or #3 500/220kV transformer
given the loss of the Rowville to Yallourn #5 220 kV transmission line


High-impact Victorian transmission constraint equations
To identify transmission constraint equations with the highest market impact, the product of the total
binding hours for the year and the average Victorian spot prices at the time the equation bound (in
$/MWh) have been ranked.
Table 3-3 lists the 10 Victorian transmission constraint equations (with Victorian parameters
available to NEMDE for optimisation) during 2008 that have been assessed as having the greatest
impact on Victorian market outcomes.
Table 3-3 High impact Victorian transmission constraint equations, 2008
Constraint equation Definition
Average Vic
spot price
when binding
($/MWh)
Hours
binding
flat
Constraint
equation type
H>>H-NIL_O
Avoid Upper Tumut to Murray(65) overload on
Lower Tumut-Wagga(051) + 970,990,99M
ex_Yass lines trips (a feedback constraint
equation)
331.05 39.83 Thermal
H>>H-NIL_C
Avoid Upper Tumut to Murray (65) overload on
Lower Tumut-Murray(66) trip (a feedback
constraint equation)
135.51 70.50 Thermal
H^^V_NIL_1_P
Limit Snowy to Victoria and Snowy generation
to avoid voltage collapse for loss of the largest
Vic generating unit, 3/5 or 2-5 tied parallel
modes or modified radial mode with 1-2 tied
47.19 86.25
Voltage
Stability
N::H_KC_VC1
Outage of one Kemps Creek SVC, New South
Wales to Snowy Transient Limit
43.76 85.25
Transient
Stability
N^^V_NIL_1_P
Limit New South Wales to Victorian
interconnector, Victorian and New South Wales
generation to avoid voltage collapse for loss of
the largest Victorian generating unit, 3/5 or 2-5
tied parallel modes or modified radial mode with
1-2 tied
45.46 61.92
Voltage
Stability
V>>V_DDTX_A
Outage of Dederang No.2 or No.3 330/220kV
transformer, limit Victorian generation and
interconnectors to avoid pre-contingent
overload of the Dederang No.1 transformer
47.33 55.08 Thermal
V>V_HWTS_TX1_PAR_3-5
Outage of Hazelwood #1 or #2 500/220kV
transformer, 3-5 Parallel, Jeeralang split with
Jeeralang B connected to Hazelwood #1 or #2
220 kV bus, avoid overloading Hazelwood to
Rowville #1 and #2 220kV lines for loss of
Hazelwood #2 or #1 500/220 kV transformer
55.45 46.25 Thermal
V>V_NIL_4
Limit Hazelwood units 3, 4, and 5 to avoid
overload on Hazelwood 500/220kV No.1
transformer, Hazelwood in radial mode
65.00 39.25 Thermal
V>>V_X_DDTX2_3_DBUSS
Outage of Dederang No.2 or No.3 330/220kV
transformer and DBUSS transformer control
scheme, limit Victorian generation and
interconnectors to avoid overloading the
Dederang No.1 transformer for loss of the other
Dederang transformer
76.27 30.25 Thermal
N>>N-URWGYC-
1_X5OS_1
Outage of Uranquinty-Wagga(9R1)+Wagga-
Yanco(994)+X5_TS, avoid Wagga-
Uranquinty(9R2) overload on Wagga-Darlington
Pt(63) trip; auto-disabled if X5_TS in service
347.89 6.42 Thermal


Table 3-4 lists the 10 Victorian transmission constraint equations (with Victorian parameters
available to NEMDE for optimisation) during 2009 that have been assessed as having the greatest
impact on Victorian market outcomes.
Table 3-4 High impact Victorian transmission constraint equations, 2009
Constraint equation Definition
Average Vic
spot price
when binding
($/MWh)
Hours
binding
flat
Constraint
equation type
V>V_NIL_4
Limit Hazelwood units 3,4,5 to avoid overload on
Hazelwood 500/220kV No.1 transformer,
Hazelwood in radial mode
520.95 74.17 Thermal
V>>V_NIL_1B
Limit Victorian interconnectors and Victorian
generation to avoid overloading Dederang to Murray
No.2 330kV line for loss of the parallel No.1 line, 15
minute line ratings
1,567.60 16.92 Thermal
V::V_1900 Upper limit into Victoria of 1900 MW 3,822.67 5.75
Oscillatory
Stability
N>>N-NIL_DPTX
Avoid Darlington Point Tx3 or Tx4 overload on trip of
the other
759.65 17.67 Thermal
CA_SPS_3893391F_06
Constraint Automation, overload ROTS_YPS8_220
at YPS for CTG LVCB on trip of ROTS-YPS7 220
kV line
7,938.17 1.17 Thermal
CA_SPS_3893391F_04
Constraint Automation, overload
HWPS_ROTS1_220@HWPS for CTG LVCE on trip
of HWPS-ROTS2 220KV line
5,934.49 1.42 Thermal
CA_SPS_3893391F_10
Constraint Automation, overload ROTS_YPS8_220
@YPS for CTG LVCA on trip of ROTS-YPS6 220 kV
line
10,000.00 0.83 Thermal
N^^V_SM_SCAP_R
Outage of South Morang 330kV series capacitor,
limit New South Wales to Victorian interconnector
and Snowy generation to avoid voltage collapse for
trip of the largest Victorian generating unit in radial
mode
38.41 212.17
Voltage
Stability
V>>V_NIL_1A
generation to avoid overloading Dederang to Murray
No.1 330 kV line for loss of the parallel No.2 line, 15
minute line ratings
10,000.00 0.75 Thermal
V>>V_NIL_4A
generation to avoid exceeding the continuous rating
of the No.1 Dederang 330/220 kV transformer with
the DBUSS-Transformer control scheme armed
484.51 14.08 Thermal
Conclusions
Some general conclusions can be drawn from this analysis. In any given year, different types of
constraint equations have different impacts on market outcomes. For example, thermal constraint
equations and an oscillatory constraint equation had the greatest impact in 2009, while in 2008,
thermal, voltage stability, and transient stability constraint equations had the most significant impact.
The Victorian constraint equations found to be most frequently binding, or that bound at the times of
the highest prices in Victoria, were not necessarily those with the highest impact. Thermal constraint
equations have tended to dominate the analysis, which is expected, given the majority of NEM
transmission network constraint equations manage electricity DSN thermal limits.
Only one constraint equation, V>V_NIL_4 (which is in place to avoid overloading the Hazelwood
500/220 kV No. 1 transformer when Hazelwood is operating in a radial mode by limiting generation
from Hazelwood Units 3, 4 and 5) was indentified in Table 3-3 and Table 3-4 as a high impact
Victorian transmission constraint equation for 2008 and 2009.

3.2.10 Terminal station fault levels
When a fault occurs, such as a short circuit caused by an object coming into contact with one or
more phases, the current flowing through the short circuit and the adjacent system can be
significantly larger than the system is designed to handle continuously. Circuit breakers are switches
designed to interrupt fault currents quickly to prevent damage to plant and danger to personnel.
When calculating terminal station fault levels, AEMO:
is responsible for ensuring that fault levels are within circuit breaker interrupt capabilities
makes assumptions about system load levels, generation, transmission and interconnection
development
models forecast summer 10% POE MD with expected voltage levels at each node, and
models all generators and transmission plant normally in service.
AEMO calculates:
maximum three phase and single phase to ground busbar short-circuit currents
the maximum short-circuit currents for several different permissible modes of power system
operation, and
the symmetrical short-circuit current magnitudes flowing to a three phase or single phase to
ground bus fault immediately after the occurrence of the fault (i.e. current phase angles and DC
offsets are excluded).
Fault impedance is taken to be zero (all faults are assumed to be solid short circuits). Earth return
impedance for a single-phase-to-earth fault is included in the zero sequence impedance.
The maximum prospective short-circuit currents at each bus are determined on the assumption that
all generation and electrical networks are in service. Normally open points, which are only closed to
maintain supply during rearrangement of the system, are assumed to be open.
Current fault levels
Victorias electricity DSN exhibited adequate local circuit breaker interrupt capability at all locations
during the 2009/10 summer.
The following sections and figures present the calculated fault levels at each terminal station as a
percentage of the lowest rated circuit breaker capability within that terminal station, based on
AEMOs 2009 fault level review.
Fault levels at 500 kV, 330 kV and 275 kV
The five year analysis shows that fault levels at 275 kV, 330 kV and 500 kV voltage levels are:
well below circuit breaker interrupt capability (in the range of 17% - 59% of capability), and
unlikely to constrain development at any of these voltage levels within the foreseeable future.


Figure 3-10 500 kV, 330 kV, 275 kV fault levels for 2009/10

Fault levels at 220 kV
The five year analysis shows that fault levels at the 220 kV level are:
approaching the circuit breaker interrupt capability at a number of terminal stations, and
above 95% of the lowest circuit breaker interrupt capability at ten 220 kV terminal stations during
the 2009/10 summer. This indicates that augmentations at or in the vicinity of these stations may
include fault level mitigation.
Where 2009/10 fault levels exceed the capability of the lowest rated circuit breaker at that terminal
station, the fault current flowing through that circuit breaker would not exceed its capability as the
breaker would not be exposed to the full fault current.

Rowville
Keilor Bass Link Loy Yang
South Australia
Cranbourne
Moorabool Sydenham
Heywood
Portland
South
Morang
New South Wales
New South Wales
Wodonga
Dederang
Hazelwood
Loy Yang
40%
17% (500kV) 34% 36%
39%
43% (500kV)
40%
34%
59%
44%
17% (500kV)
52% (330kV)
27%
56% (330kV) 28%
(275kV)

Figure 3-11 Northern Corridor/South-West Corridor/Regional Victoria 220 kV fault levels for
2009/10

Figure 3-12 Greater Melbourne and Geelong/Eastern Corridor 220 kV fault levels for 2009/10

90%
Thomastown
Terang
Moorabool
Ballarat
Horsham
Kerang
Bendigo
Red Cliffs
Shepparton
Glenrowan
New South Wales
Dederang
Eildon
Mt. Beauty
Fosterville
25% 63%
77%
97%
41%
17%
68%
56%
37%
37%
12%
19%
37%
26%
39%
Dartmouth
McKay Creek
West Kiewa
50%
>95%
98%
80% to 95% 88%
Rowville
Brunswick
West
Melbourne
Keilor
Malvern
Richmond
Springvale
Ringwood
Templestowe
Heatherton
East Rowville
Cranbourne
Tyabb
Western Port
Thomastown
Fishermans
Bend
Newport
Altona
Brooklyn
Geelong
Point Henry
Anglesea
Moorabool South
Morang
Yallourn
Jeeralang
Morwell
Hazelwood
Loy Yang
Loy Yang Gas
97%
84%
68%
98%
65%
81%
76%
54%
>99%
56%
55%
64%
98%
24%
49%
31%
41%
88%
98%
99%
90%
65%
56%
36%
94%
69%
79%
>99%
83%
>99%
87%
>99%
94%
43%
Laverton
North
>95%
80% to 95%
58%
55%
97%

Fault levels at 66 kV and 22 kV
The five year analysis shows that fault levels at 66 kV and 22 kV are:
approaching the circuit breaker interrupt capability at a number of terminal stations, and
above 95% of the lowest circuit breaker interrupt capability at eight 66 kV and 22 kV terminal
stations during the 2009/10 summer. This indicates that augmentations at or in the vicinity of
these stations may include fault level mitigation.
Where 2009/10 fault levels exceed the capability of the lowest rated circuit breaker at that terminal
station, the fault current flowing through that circuit breaker would not exceed its capability as the
breaker would not be exposed to the full fault current.
Bracketed numbers represent 22 kV fault levels as a percentage of breaker ratings.
Figure 3-13 66 kV and (22 kV) fault levels for 2009/10

Key terminal stations for review
Fault levels at some 220 kV, 66 kV and 22 kV buses, particularly in the Greater Melbourne and
Geelong region, are close to circuit breaker capabilities, and they are forecast to exceed these over
the next five years. This will not occur within the 5-year planning period for the following terminal
stations (because the lowest rated circuit breakers capability is not exposed to the full fault current
or agreed fault level ratings):
Hazelwood
Jeeralang
Springvale
60%
West
Melbourne
Keilor
Malvern
Richmond
Templestowe
Heatherton
East Rowville
Cranbourne
Tyabb
Thomastown
Fishermans
Bend
Altona
Brooklyn
Geelong Terang
Ballarat
Horsham
Kerang
Bendigo
Red Cliffs
Shepparton
Glenrowan
Wodonga
Mt. Beauty
Yallourn
Morwell
Loy Yang
77% (90%)
80%
96% (98%)
69%
98%
90%
56%
94%
32%
84%
26% (43%)
95%
45%
59%
96%
51% (71%)
50% (95%)
Ringwood
77% 68%
69%
62%
52%
83%
97% 63%
96%
97% (91%)
31% (44%)
41%
(40%)
Brunswick
(78%)
71% (98%)
>95%
80% to 95%
South
Morang
89%
(89%)
68%
64%
78%
77%
58%
70% (99%)
(85%)
49%

Keilor
Rowville
Thomastown, and
West Melbourne.
If new projects proceed as modelled (see Section 3.2.11 for more information), short circuit currents
are forecast to exceed the installed circuit breaker capability or agreed fault level ratings at a number
of other locations over the forecast period 2009/10-2013/14.
Table 3-5 lists the terminal stations forecast to exceed the installed circuit breaker capability or
agreed fault level ratings.
Table 3-5 Insufficient circuit breaker capability forecasts
Forecast
occurrence
Terminal station Comment
Summer 2009/10
South Morang 66 kV
Fault level mitigation option is already in place to
address this
Jeeralang 220 kV
Fault level mitigation is currently managed
operationally and long term solution is to be
investigated
Summer 2010/11

Richmond 220 kV Fault level mitigation to be handled as part of
generator connection process
East Rowville 66 kV Fault level mitigation options are currently being
investigated by Distribution Businesses
Rowville 220 kV (No. 3 & 4
buses)
Fault level issue has been addressed following SP
AusNets re-assessment of fault level ratings
Thomastown 220 kV (No. 3 bus) Fault level mitigation will be handled by SP
AusNets station refurbishment
Keilor 220 kV Fault level mitigation will be handled by SP
AusNets station refurbishment
Summer 2011/12 Brooklyn 66 kV Fault level mitigation to be handled as part of
station rebuild
Summer 2012/13 Brunswick 66 kV Fault level mitigation to be handled as part of
connection process
3.2.11 Fault level impacts from electricity DSN projects
Fault levels over the next five years will be influenced by the following electricity DSN and
connection asset/sub-transmission projects:
likely generation development in South-West Victoria and the Ballarat and Mount Beauty areas
a second 500/220 kV transformer at Cranbourne
a third 330/220 kV transformer at South Morang
a third 220/66 kV transformer at Cranbourne
a fourth 220/66 kV transformer at East Rowville, and
two 220/66 kV transformers at Brunswick in 2010/11 and a third transformer in 2012/13.
AEMO is aware of a range of other proposals for the connection of new generation to both the
transmission and distribution networks, and sufficiently progressed proposals are considered in the
VAPR.
The establishment of wind farms and other types of embedded generation is expected to increase
short circuit currents at 220 kV, 66 kV, and 22 kV buses, depending on their size and location.

In South Australia and New South Wales, only new generation developments close to the Victorian
border significantly impact Victorian short circuit currents. Except Uranquinty generation, no other
new developments are considered.
New generation in Tasmania will not impact short circuit currents, since the interconnector is an
HVDC link.
Managing fault levels
Fault levels are rising due to increasing loads, new generation connections, and network
augmentations. In particular, new generators connecting near critical terminal stations at voltage
levels of 220 kV and below will significantly impact fault levels. As a result, fault level management is
a critical issue at a number of locations within the Melbourne metropolitan area.
Options to mitigate problems associated with increasing fault levels include:
operational switching arrangements (for example, splitting buses or open-ending lines)
automatic control schemes to open and/or close appropriate circuit breakers (if feasible)
replacement of affected circuit breakers or other plant
installation of fault current limiting reactors to lines and/or bus-ties, and
installation of neutral reactors on transformer secondaries (where these are not already installed).
Factors influencing the selection of the most appropriate options include the:
terminal stations location
magnitude of the problem, and
cost of the solution.
Historically, implementing operational switching arrangements has been the most effective and
economic way of managing fault levels, having facilitated fault level maintenance at critical locations
within circuit breaker interrupt capabilities for many years. However, in some instances the
application of operational arrangements and the possible reduction in plant redundancy means this
solution may not always be technically viable or economic.
3.3 Committed augmentations electricity transmission
This section presents a summary of committed and recently completed electricity DSN augmentation
projects. Previously committed or recently completed projects have appeared in previous APRs as
planned augmentations. The projects are categorised as either:
New Large Transmission Network Assets (capital cost > $20M)
New Small Transmission Network Assets ($5M < capital cost < $20M)
Minor Network Augmentations (capital cost < $5M), or
New or Modified Connections.
Table 3-6 lists a summary of committed or recently completed electricity DSN augmentation projects.

Table 3-6 Electricity DSN augmentation projects
Project
category
Description Status
New or
Modified
Connections
funded by third
parties
Mortlake Gas Generation
Augmentation: Mortlake Power Station
Expected implementation: late 2010
Committed
Ryans Corner and Hawkesdale planned
Augmentations: Tarrone Terminal Station
Planned
Macarthur Wind Farm
Augmentation: Macarthur Terminal Station
Expected implementation: mid 2012
Planned
Tarrone Gas Generator
Augmentation: Tarrone Power Station
Planned
Shaw River Power Station
Augmentation: Shaw River Terminal Station
Expected implementation: Stage 1 March 2012 timing of remaining
stages determined as required by the market
Planned
Mt Gellibrand Wind Farm
Augmentation: 220kV Connection into Terang Terminal Station
Expected implementation: Mid 2012
Planned
Mt Mercer Wind Farm
Augmentation: new Elaine Terminal Station
Expected implementation: To be advised
Planned
Ararat Wind Farm
Augmentation: BATS HOTS 220kV line
Expected implementation: June 2013
Planned
Berry Bank Wind Farm
Augmentation: 220kV Ballarat - Terang Transmission line
Expected implementation: Early 2013
Planned
Lexton Wind Farm
Augmentation: 220kV connection into Ballarat Terminal Station
Expected implementation: September 2012
Planned
Mortlake Wind Farm
Augmentation: 220kV connection into Terang Terminal Station
Expected implementation: Third quarter of 2013
Planned

Silverton Wind Farm
Augmentations: Stage 2 Red Cliffs Terminal Station
Expected implementation: To be advised
Planned
East Rowville Terminal Station
Expected implementation: November 2010
Committed
Brunswick Terminal Station 220/66 kV development Planned
Wemen Terminal Station 220/66 kV development Planned
Bendigo Terminal Station 220/22 kV development Planned
Geelong Terminal Station Planned

3.3.1 New or modified connections funded by third parties
Mortlake Gas Generation
Origin Energy Pty. Ltd. has proposed a new power station near Mortlake. A new 500 kV switchyard
is to be established at Mortlake to enable connection to the electricity DSN. The new Mortlake
Power Station will be cut in to the existing No 2 Moorabool-Heywood 500 kV line.
The proposed service date is by the end of 2010.
Ryans Corner & Hawkesdale Wind Farm
Union Fernosa has proposed a wind farm to connect to No2 Moorabool - Heywood 500kV
transmission line. The connection point will be at a new Hakesdale Terminal Station. The capacity
of the wind farm is planned at 350MW.
Macarthur Wind Farm
AGL in a joint venture with Meridian has proposed a wind farm consisting of up to 183 wind turbines
with a capacity of up to 450 MW in total capacity. This generating system will be connected to the No
1 Moorabool Heywood 500kV transmission line.
Tarone Terminal Station will also be established to connect the proposed wind farm.
The proposed service date is by early to mid-2012.
Tarrone Gas Generator
AGL Energy Limited has proposed a new 512 MW gas-fired power station for connection to the No.
1 Moorabool-Heywood 500 kV transmission line. The connection point will be shared with the
Macarthur Wind Farm at the new Tarrone Terminal Station. The capacity of the generator is planned
at 512MW.
Shaw River Power Station
Santos has proposed a new power station in the vicinity of the Orford locality in south-western
Victoria. A new 500 kV switchyard is to be established at the site to allow for the connection of the
proposed Shaw River Power Station to the transmission network.
The new Shaw River Power Station will connect to the existing No 1 Moorabool Heywood /Alcoa
Portland 500 kV line.
The project is expected to be completed in three stages beginning in 2012, with timing of
subsequent stages determined by the market.
Mt Gellibrand Wind Farm
Acciona Energy has proposed a wind farm of approximately 100 wind turbine generators in South
West Victoria.
A 220kV transmission station has also been proposed to connect to the Moorabool Terang
transmission line. The Mt Gellibrand wind farm will be connected to this station.

The proposed service date is the middle of 2012.
Mt Mercer Wind Farm
Mt Mercer Wind Farm Pty. Ltd. has proposed a new 130 MW wind farm south of Ballarat, with a new
132 kV transmission line between Mt Mercer Wind Farm and the Ballarat Terminal Station.
The proposed service date is yet to be advised.
Ararat Wind Farm
RES Australia Pty. Ltd. has proposed a new 183 MW wind farm south of Horsham for connection to
a new 220 kV transmission line at the Ballarat Terminal Station.
The proposed service date is by June 2013.
Berry Bank Wind Farm
Union Fernosa has proposed a new Berry Bank Wind Farm to be connected at 220kV between
Ballarat and Terang Terminal Stations. The capacity of the wind farm is planned at 250MW.
The proposed service date is by early 2013.
Lexton Wind Farm
Origin Energy Pty Ltd has proposed a 38 MW wind farm in the North West of Ballarat. The
connection will be via a new 220kV line into Ballarat Terminal Station.
The proposed service date is by September 2012.
Mortlake Wind Farm
Acciona Energy has proposed a 150 MW wind farm in the North of Terang. The proposed
connection will be at 220 kV at Terang Terminal Station.
The proposed service date is by the third quarter of 2013.
Silverton Wind Farm
Silverton Wind Farm Developments Pty Ltd has proposed the development of a wind farm located
3km north of Silverton. The maximum power generated is likely to be in excess of 1,000MW.
The wind farm will be connected to Broken Hill substation (in NSW) and Red Cliffs Terminal Station
(in Victoria).
The proposed service date for the connection of the wind farm is to be advised.
East Rowville Terminal Station
Jemena Ltd. (on behalf of United Energy Distribution) and SPI Electricity Pty. Ltd. (SPIE) have jointly
proposed to establish a fourth 220/66 kV transformer at the East Rowville Terminal Station together
with the necessary 220kV shared asset and 66 kV switchgear and control.
The proposed service date is by November 2010.

Brunswick Terminal Station
CitiPower has submitted a connection application for a new 66 kV supply from the existing
Brunswick Terminal Station.
The initial stage of the proposed connection comprises two transformers connecting to an extended
No. 1, 220 kV bus, and a new No. 3, 220 kV bus.
Wemen Terminal Station
Powercor has submitted a connection application for a new terminal station located in the vicinity of
Wemen, for connection to the existing Kerang-Red Cliffs 220 kV transmission line.
New transformer projects
Connection applications have been received for the development of new transformers at the
following terminal stations:
Geelong
Keilor
Cranbourne
Bendigo.


3.4 Gas 2009
This section presents:
a basic description of the gas DTS, its pipelines, injection points, and gas regions or zones
the peak day and annual demand levels for 2009, including system demand, gas powered
generation (GPG) demand and export demand
the peak day and annual supply levels for 2009, and a comparison of the levels of demand and
supply
information about specific pipeline injections and withdrawals, and the contributing factors to
normal pipeline operating boundaries for each main gas DTS pipeline, and
information about the various system developments commenced or concluded throughout the
year.
3.4.1 The gas transmission system
The gas market involves injections and withdrawals of gas, and the balancing of gas flow in or
through the gas transmission system. The gas transmission system primarily comprises the gas
DTS, with connections to non-gas DTS pipelines (other pipelines not forming part of the gas DTS).
A map and a detailed topographical diagram of the gas DTS can be found in the fold-out section at
the back of the VAPR.
The Victorian gas transmission system has evolved since the early 1950s when manufactured gas
was produced from brown coal in the Latrobe Valley.
Natural gas was discovered in Bass Strait in 1965 in the Barracouta field and subsequently in the
Marlin field. Oil was also discovered in the Kingfish field in 1967. Subsequently the Longford Gas
Plant 1 and the Crude Stabilisation Plant were constructed, and in 1969 the supply of natural gas to
Melbourne consumers began. The rapid expansion of the gas system had commenced, with
individual systems and country towns that were previously supplied by manufactured gas being
converted to natural gas.
Natural gas was later also discovered in the Otway Basin at North Paaratte and a pipeline
constructed to Allansford to supply Warrnambool. Over time, the Western Transmission System
(WTS) was extended to supply Portland, Cobden, Koroit and Hamilton by 1995.
The interconnection of the Victorian and New South Wales systems was achieved in 1998.
Following an explosion at Longford in late 1998, the planned South West Pipeline (SWP) from Iona
to Lara was fast tracked for completion, enabling the integration of the WTS and the gas DTS.
3.4.2 Injection points, key infrastructure and typical gas flow
The gas DTS receives gas via the following system injection points:
Longford located at Longford, with gas supplied by Exxon-Mobil/BHP Billiton/Southern Natural
Gas Development (SNGD). The group procures gas from the Bass Strait gas fields in Gippsland.
VicHub located at Longford with gas flow to and from New South Wales through the Eastern
Gas Pipeline (EGP).
BassGas located at Pakenham with gas supplies from the Yolla gas field via a gas plant located
at Lang Lang.
Iona located near Port Campbell with gas supplies from the Iona gas plant and the Underground
Gas Storage (UGS) facility. Gas from the Casino gas field is processed at the Iona gas plant and
flows to the gas DTS through the Iona injection point.

SEA Gas located adjacent to Iona and the UGS facility. Gas from the Minerva gas field flows to
this injection point.
Otway located near Port Campbell with gas supplies from the Thylacine and Geographe gas
fields. Gas from Thylacine and Geographe can also be injected into the gas DTS at the SEA Gas
and Iona injection points.
Culcairn located in New South Wales. Gas from the Moomba gas field is injected at Culcairn
and flows into the gas DTS via the New South Wales interconnect. Longford gas can also be
exported to New South Wales via Culcairn.
The Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility located at Dandenong, LNG is stored, vaporised, and
injected into the gas DTS as required.
points shows the location of each system injection point.
Figure 3-14 gas Declared Transmission System injection points
from
Bass Strait
Horsham
Melbourne
Echuca
Longford
Jeeralang
Power Stn
Morwell
Gooding
Dandenong
Wollert
Somerton
Power Stn
Loy Yang B
Power Stn
LNG
Docklands
Newport
Power Stn
Brooklyn
to Adelaide
Sunbury
Ballarat
Maryborough
Carisbrook
Bendigo
Wandong
Clonbinane
Euroa
Springhurst
Koonoomoo
Barnawartha
Wodonga
Culcairn
Tyers
Vic Hub
to New South Wales
Inner
ringmain
Brooklyn - Lara Pipeline
Lara SWP
Geelong
SEAGas
Iona UGS
Iona
Portland
Iona
from Casino
from Minerva
from Thylacine Geographe
Bass Gas
from Yolla
to New South Wales
to Tasmania
Laverton North
Power Stn
Otway


Figure 3 -15 gas Declared Transmission System main pipelines shows the location of the main gas
DTS pipelines.
Figure 3-15 gas Declared Transmission System main pipelines
Melbourne
Echuca
Jeeralang
Power Stn
Morwell
Gooding
Dandenong
Wollert
Somerton
Power Stn
Loy Yang B
Power Stn
Docklands
Newport
Power Stn
Brooklyn
Sunbury
Ballarat
Maryborough
Carisbrook
Bendigo
Wandong
Clonbinane
Euroa
Springhurst
Koonoomoo
Barnawartha
Wodonga
Tyers
Lara SWP
Geelong Iona UGS
Iona
Portland
Laverton North
Power Stn
Longford
Culcairn
Vic Hub
SEAGas Iona
Bass Gas
LNG
Western
Transmission System
South West Pipeline
Longford Pipeline
NSW Interconnect
Otway

Figure 3-16 shows the direction of typical gas flows within the gas DTS on low to medium and high
demand days.
Figure 3-16 gas Declared Transmission System typical gas flows
Melbourne
Echuca
Jeeralang
Power Stn
Morwell
Gooding
Dandenong
Wollert
Somerton
Power Stn
Loy Yang B
Power Stn
Docklands
Newport
Power Stn
Brooklyn
Sunbury
Ballarat
Maryborough
Carisbrook
Bendigo
Wandong
Clonbinane
Euroa
Springhurst
Koonoomoo
Barnawartha
Wodonga
Tyers
Lara SWP
Geelong Iona UGS
Iona
Portland
Laverton North
Power Stn
Longford
Culcairn
Vic Hub
SEAGas Iona
Bass Gas
LNG
Low Medium demand day typical gas flow
High demand day typical gas flow (where different)
Otway

3.4.3 Non-gas Declared Transmission System pipelines
Pipelines not forming part of the gas DTS (but connected to it via gas market withdrawal/injection
points) include the following pipelines:

EGP (from Longford to Wilton, New South Wales) - the bi-directional connection at Longford is
known as the VicHub interconnect.
SEA Gas Pipeline (from Iona to Adelaide, South Australia) - this pipeline has two connections,
one to the UGS facility, and one to the gas DTS (known as the SEA Gas interconnect).
BassGas Pipeline (from the Lang Lang gas field to Pakenham) - the connection at Pakenham is
primarily a transmission injection point (commissioned in June 2006).
Otway Pipeline (from Thylacine and Geographe gas field to Iona) - this pipeline is connected to
the UGS and SEA Gas pipeline for transport to South Australia and to the gas DTS through the
SEA Gas interconnect.
Carisbrook to Horsham Pipeline - the connection at Carisbrook is a gas DTS transmission
withdrawal point.
Tasmanian Pipeline (from Longford to Bell Bay, Tasmania) - this pipeline is connected to the
EGP.
Figure 3-17 shows the location of the non-gas DTS pipelines.
Figure 3-17 Non-gas Declared Transmission System pipelines
from
Bass
Strait
Horsham
Melbourne
Echuca
Longford
Jeeralang
Power Stn
Morwell
Gooding
Dandenong
Wollert
Somerton
Power Stn
Loy Yang B
Power Stn
LNG
Docklands
Newport
Power Stn
Brooklyn
to Adelaide
Sunbury
Ballarat
Maryborough
Carisbrook
Bendigo
Wandong
Clonbinane
Euroa
Springhurst
Koonoomoo
Barnawartha
Wodonga
Culcairn
Tyers
Vic Hub
to New South Wales
Inner
ringmain
Lara SWP
Geelong
SEAGas
Iona UGS
Iona
Portland
Iona
from Casino
from Minerva
from Thylacine
Geographe
Bass Gas
from Yolla
to New South Wales
to Tasmania
Laverton North
Power Stn
Non-gas DTS pipeline
Otway

3.4.4 Gas regions
The gas market comprises six regions: Gippsland Zone, Western Zone, Northern Zone, Melbourne
and Geelong Zone, and Ballarat Zone. Demand forecasts are required for each region as well as the
gas DTS as a whole. Figure 3-18 shows the location of each gas region.

Figure 3-18 Gas regions
Northern
Gippsland
Ballarat
Melbourne Geelong Western
Melbourne
Echuca
Jeeralang
Power Stn
Morwell
Gooding
Dandenong
Wollert
Somerton
Power Stn
Loy Yang B
Power Stn
Docklands
Newport
Power Stn
Brooklyn
Sunbury
Ballarat
Maryborough
Carisbrook
Bendigo
Wandong
Clonbinane
Euroa
Springhurst
Koonoomoo
Barnawartha
Wodonga
Tyers
Lara SWP
Geelong Iona UGS
Iona
Portland
Laverton North
Power Stn
Longford
Culcairn
Vic Hub
SEAGas Iona
Bass Gas
LNG
Otway

3.5 Demand and supply
3.5.1 Peak day demand
Total demand refers to system demand, GPG demand, and exports. System demand refers to
demand from Tariff V and Tariff D customers excluding GPG (see the 2009 VAPR Update available
on the AEMO website for more information on Tariff V and Tariff D demand). The 2009 peak day
occurred on 9 June 2009, with a system demand of 1,121 TJ. This was the coldest day in the 2009
winter on an effective degree day (EDD) basis, with an EDD of 13.8, below the current 1 in 2 and 1
in 20 year weather standards of 14.55 and 16.8 respectively. This compares with the 2008 VAPR
Updates peak day system demand forecast for 2009 of:
1,163 TJ for a 1 in 2 peak day on a day with EDD of 14.35, and
1,269 TJ for a 1 in 20 peak day on a day with EDD of 16.5.
Table 3-7 lists the breakdown of demand in 2009 for the peak day.
Table 3-7 Peak day demand, 2009 (TJ/d)
Demand source 9 June 2009 % of Total
System Demand 1,120.9 95.8
GPG 49.2 4.2

Demand source 9 June 2009 % of Total
Export Iona
1
0.0 0.0

Bass Gas 0.0 0.0

Culcairn 0.0 0.0

SEA Gas 0.0 0.0

VicHub 0.0 0.0
Total demand

1,170.1 100.0
1. Iona withdrawals are delivered to the UGS or exported to South Australia

Figure 3-19 shows a comparison of the peak day hourly demand profile with a more typical hourly
demand profile.
Figure 3-19 Peak day/typical hourly system demand profile comparison (TJ/hr)

3.5.2 Annual demand
Total demand
9
was 226.42 PJ for the 12 months to 31 December 2009, with 124.19 PJ
(approximately 55%) of this demand occurring during the winter peak period (May to September).
This compares with the total demand in 2008 of 241.46 PJ, with 136.90 PJ of this demand
(approximately 57%) occurring during the winter peak period.
Table 3-8 lists the breakdown of demand in 2009 for the year and for the winter period.

9
Total demand for the period comprises system demand, Iona withdrawals (and exports), GPG demand, and
other exports.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
6am 9am 12am 3pm 6pm 9pm 12pm 3am
T
J
Peak day system
demand + GPG
Peak day system
demand
Typical day
system demand

Table 3-8 Annual demand, 2009 (PJ/yr)
Demand source
Twelve
months to
December
2009
% of Total
May to September
2009
% of Total
System demand 204.33 90.25 118.06 95.06
GPG 17.73 7.83 5.87 4.73
Export Iona
1
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bass Gas 0.04 0.02 0.001 0.01

Culcairn 4.23 1.87 0.21 0.17

SEA Gas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

VicHub 0.08 0.03 0.04 0.03
Total demand 226.42 100.00 124.19 100.00
1. Iona withdrawals are delivered to the UGS or exported to South Australia.
System demand
System demand for the 12 months to 31 December 2009 was 204.33 PJ (approximately 90% of the
total demand). This compares with the system demand in 2008 of 212.80 PJ (approximately 88% of
total demand).
System demand covers the industrial, commercial and residential sectors (Tariff D and Tariff V). See
Chapter 3 for more information about system demand for 2009.
GPG demand
GPG demand for the 12 months to 31 December 2009 was 17.7 PJ (approximately 7.8% of the total
demand). This compares with GPG demand in 2008 of 22.95 PJ (approximately 9.5% of the total
demand). Figure 3-20 shows the annual GPG demand over the last five years. The significant
increase in GPG demand in 2007 was largely due to drought-induced hydroelectric and coal-fired
generation capacity limitations leading to an increased reliance on GPG to meet electricity demand.

Figure 3-20 Gas powered generation demand 2005-2009 (PJ/yr)

Figure 3-21 shows monthly GPG demand over the last three years. GPG demand in 2009 was 17.7
PJ. GPG demand in 2007 was unusually high when compared to previous years, with relatively high
levels of demand continuing from the shoulder period through to the beginning of winter (May/June).
Previously, GPG demand has been highest in the shoulder periods, due to the scheduling of coal-
fired generation maintenance.
Figure 3-21 Gas powered generation monthly demand 2007-2009 (TJ/mth)

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
G
P
G

(
P
J
/
y
r
)
Year
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
T
J
Month
2007
2008
2009

Export demand
Export demand for the 12 months to 31 December 2009 was 4.35 PJ (approximately 1.9% of the
total demand). This compares with export demand for the 12 months to December 2008 of 5.71 PJ
(approximately 2.4% of the total demand).
Exports represent actual physical flows from the gas DTS, either via an interconnect or into the UGS
facility. Total exports for the period were:
4.23 PJ via Culcairn (down from 4.33 PJ in 2008), showing virtually no change
0.04 PJ via BassGas (the same as 0.04 PJ in 2008), showing no change from 2008
0.08 PJ via VicHub (down from 0.09 PJ in 2008), showing a decrease due to market factors and
operating conditions at Longford, and
0.00 PJ via Iona (down from 1.11 PJ in 2008), showing insignificant Iona exports for 2009. The
decrease was due to market conditions.
3.5.3 Peak day supply
The 2009 peak day occurred on 9 June 2009, with total supply (including LNG) of 1,183.0 TJ. The
12.9 TJ difference between demand and supply on this day was due to linepack changes over the
course of the day.
Table 3-9 lists the breakdown of supply in 2009 for the peak day.
Table 3-9 Peak day supply, 2009 (TJ/d)
Injection point (TJ/d) % of Total
Longford 828.2 70.0
VicHub 0.0 0.0
BassGas 63.4 5.4
Total Longford, VicHub and BassGas 891.6 75.4
Iona UGS 211.3 17.9
SEA Gas 55.4 4.7
Otway 0.0 0.0
Total Iona and SEA Gas 266.7 22.5
Culcairn 63.4 2.1
Total (excluding LNG) 1183.0 100.0
LNG
1
0.0 0.0
Total (including LNG) 1183.0 100%
1. This represents scheduled LNG only.

3.5.4 Annual supply
Gas market supplies totalled 224.9 PJ for the 12 months to 31 December 2009. Longford and
VicHub supplies were 147.8 PJ for 2009 (approximately 66% of total supply). This compares with
186.1 PJ in 2008 (approximately 77% of total supply). The BassGas connection, with the capacity to
inject 67 TJ/d, provides an increasingly important source of additional supply for the Longford to
Dandenong pipeline. BassGas supplies were 17.21 PJ in 2009 (approximately 8% of total supply),
compared to 16.5 PJ in 2008 (approximately 6.9% of total supply).
A total of 72 TJ (131 tonnes) of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was scheduled and vaporised over this
period. This represented a significant decrease from 2008, and is largely attributed to the decrease

in GPG demand and milder weather conditions resulting in lower demand. See Section 3.5.2 for
more information about GPG demand. See Chapter 5, Section 5.3.7, for more information about
historical LNG use and current modelling involving profiled injection rates at Iona.
Table 3-10 lists the breakdown of supply in 2009 for the year and for the winter peak period.
Table 3-10 Annual supply, 2009 (PJ/yr)
Injection point
12 months to
December
2009
% of Total
May to September
2009
% of Total
Longford 145.37 64.64 83.17 65.21
VicHub 2.46 1.09 0.1 0.08
BassGas 17.21 7.65 8.31 6.51
Total Longford, VicHub
and BassGas
165.04 73.38 91.58 71.80
Iona UGS 35.57 15.82 18.15 14.23
SEA Gas 16.01 7.12 9.80 7.68
Otway 3.94 1.75 3.94 3.09
Total Iona, SEA Gas and
Otway
55.52 24.69 31.89 25.00
Culcairn 4.35 1.93 4.09 3.20
Total (excluding LNG) 224.91 100.00 127.55 100.00
LNG
1
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total (including LNG) 224.91 100.00 127.55 100%
1. This represents scheduled LNG only.

3.6 Demand and supply comparison
3.6.1 Monthly demand and supply comparison
Figure 3-22 shows the components of demand and supply for the 12-month period. In general,
monthly demand and supply was lower during 2009 when compared to 2008, especially for the
winter months except June. A large proportion of this overall decrease can be attributed to the milder
weather conditions and decrease in GPG demand. Other changes in demand include the fall in
exports at Iona. Exports in 2009 were much lower during the months of May to October, compared
to 2008.

Figure 3-22 Monthly demand and supply comparison, 2009 (PJ/month)

3.7 Pipeline injections, withdrawals and operating boundaries
This section details the maximum allowable pipeline injections and contributing factors to pipeline
operating boundaries for each main pipeline within the gas DTS. The System Security Guidelines
provide information about minimum pressure requirements
10
.
This section also provides an overview, focussing on bulk gas transfers, of gas DTS pipeline gas
injections, withdrawals, normal operating boundaries, and spare capacity. In this context:
transmission system/pipeline capacity refers to the maximum demand that can be met on a
sustained basis under a defined set of operating conditions (see the Glossary for more
information), and
normal pipeline operating boundaries refer to the normal range of injections into a pipeline due to
operational requirements and other contributing factors, as well as anticipated gas DTS
augmentations.
Table 3-11 lists a summary of the currently allowable maximum pipeline injections, pipeline
operating boundaries, and withdrawals. Nominal values are used, but reference is also made (where
appropriate) to the range of injections for different operating conditions. These capacities assume a

10
See the AEMO website for more information about the System Security Guidelines.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
J
a
n
F
e
b
M
a
r
A
p
r
M
a
y
J
u
n
J
u
l
A
u
g
S
e
p
O
c
t
N
o
v
D
e
c
P
J
Total Export
GPG
System
Demand
LNG
Culcairn
Otway
SEA Gas
Iona
BassGas
VicHub
Longford

flat profile (a constant injection rate) for gas supply injections and a winter peak demand profile
(unless otherwise specified).
See Section 3.4, for more information about the location of key gas DTS infrastructure, including gas
DTS and non-gas DTS pipelines, system injection points, city gates, compressor stations, and the
LNG storage facility.
Table 3-11 Pipeline injections, withdrawals, and operating boundaries
Pipeline
Allowable
maximum
pipeline
injections
(TJ/d)
Normal
pipeline
operating
boundary
(TJ/d)
Comment
Longford to
Melbourne
1,030 990-1,030
Longford to Melbourne pipeline injections are 990 TJ/d with
coincident injections from Esso and VicHub. This can increase to
1,030 TJ/d with further coincident injections from BassGas (at
Pakenham). These capacities are based on Longford pressures
not exceeding 6,750 kPa
When BassGas is injecting, and on reaching pipeline capacity,
injections at Longford need to be reduced in the ratio of 1 to 3 to
compensate
See Section 3.7.1 for more information
South West
Pipeline (from Iona)
347 220-315
South West Pipeline injection rates at Iona depend on the
pipelines pressure and Geelong system withdrawal zone
demand
Providing for the maintenance of Western Transmission System
supply security, a winter operating pressure at the beginning-of-
day at Iona of:
9000 - 10,000 kPa enables injections of 347 TJ/d, and
8,500 kPa enables injections of 315 TJ/d.
South West
Pipeline (to Iona)
129
1
38-129
Allowable withdrawals at Iona (which occur mostly during
summer) fall when the Laverton North gas power generation
(GPG) plant is operating. During winter, Iona withdrawals are
greatly reduced compared to summer. In fact, due to market
forces it is expected that Iona will inject during winter
New South Wales
Interconnect
(imports)
92 35~92
92 TJ/d can be imported when both the Young Centaur
compressor and the Springhurst compressor are operating. If
the Springhurst compressor is not operating, import capacity is
60 TJ/d. If the Young compressor is not operating, import
capacity is 50 TJ/d. If neither compressor is operating, import
capacity is 35 TJ/d
See Section3.7.4 for more information
New South Wales
Interconnect
(exports - summer)
50 0-50
Summer exports to New South Wales are normally 25 TJ/d.
With commissioning of the compressor at Culcairn and
favourable operating conditions in both Victoria and New South
Wales, up to 50 TJ/d can be exported
New South Wales
Interconnect
(exports - winter)
10 0-10
Winter exports are limited to 10 TJ/d under ideal circumstances,
due to expected gas DTS linepack, pressure and compression
operating conditions
Western
Transmission
System
28 17-28
Western Transmission System injections at Iona of 17-22 TJ/d
are possible with Iona compression and Iona pressures of
4,000 kPa to 4,300 kPa. This can increase to 28 TJ/d with
sufficient injections from Iona
1. This refers to maximum withdrawals from Iona rather than maximum injections into the SWP

3.7.1 Longford to Melbourne pipeline
Pipeline injections and withdrawals
The modelled injections into the Longford to Melbourne pipeline are 990 TJ/d, when injections are
solely from Longford. This figure assumes:
injections from the Exxon-Mobil plant and VicHub (only) at Longford
that there are no injections from BassGas
favourable operating conditions (for example, sufficient beginning-of-day linepack), and
that all compressors and other transmission assets are available.
Longford pipeline modelling assumes a Longford operating pressure of up to 6,750 kPa. High
pressures at Longford, especially overnight, can cause the Exxon-Mobil plant to back off injections.
BassGas injections at Pakenham of 60 TJ/d increase the Longford to Melbourne pipelines injection
capacity to a maximum of 1,030 TJ/d. When BassGas is injecting, and on reaching pipeline capacity,
injections at Longford need to be reduced in the ratio of 1 to 3 to compensate.
Pipeline operating boundary - contributing factors
Factors affecting the operating boundary include:
system linepack and Longford morning peak pressures (for example, low linepack and morning
peak pressures reduce Longfords capacity to inject gas)
demand forecast accuracy and its impact on the scheduling of gas injections (leading to an
unexpected reduction in linepack and a potential increase in scheduled injections)
Gooding and Wollert Compressor Station (CS) operations, and
GPG in the Latrobe Valley and other intermittent sources of significant gas demand.
3.7.2 South West Pipeline (from Iona)
Under normal conditions, current operating strategy requires Iona to operate at 8,500 kPa at
beginning-of-day, producing an SWP operating boundary of approximately 315 TJ/d. This operating
boundary allows gas from Longford to be stored within the SWP on days when demand is lower than
forecast, and the pressure at Longford is close to 6,750 kPa.
The current capacity of the SWP (from Iona to Lara) is declared to be 347 TJ/d, which is the amount
of gas that can be transported from Iona towards Melbourne. Modelling has shown that the pipelines
capacity differs under different operating conditions.
Figure 3-23 shows the relationship between SWP capacity and maximum operating pressures at
Iona. The SWP can transport 353 TJ/d based on an average of 9,000 kPa at Iona (corresponding to
a maximum operating pressure of approximately 9,500 kPa on the diagram) and can transport up to
372 TJ/d on a 1 in 20 peak day under ideal conditions if the pipeline is operating at its maximum
allowable operating pressure (MAOP) of 10,000 kPa at Iona. However, for operational reasons, it is
considered impractical to operate the pipeline at MAOP.
AEMO is currently reviewing the declared capacity of the SWP with a view to potentially revising it
on the basis of the latest modelling.

Figure 3-23 SWP capacity with varying Iona pressure

Factors affecting the SWP operating boundary include:
demand uncertainty
linepack management requirements, and
beginning-of-day pressure at Iona.
Allowing the pipeline to be operated at pressures approaching its MAOP enables increased
injections. High pipeline pressures, however, create operational issues for the gas DTS. For
example, warmer than expected weather and lower daily demand increase the risk of high pressure
at Longford, especially overnight. Inability to shift linepack to the SWP due to high pressure at Iona
can cause the Exxon-Mobil plant to back-off injections, possibly resulting in a risk to system security
(depending on the time required to restore the plant to full capacity).
On the other hand, operating the pipelines at lower pressures (for example, 4,000 kPa) reduces
linepack. This reduces pipeline capacity and operational responsiveness to potential system
security threats on high demand days.
In winter, an Iona beginning-of-day pressure of 8,500 kPa enables injections of 315 TJ/d, including
additional WTS flow. This provides a reasonable balance of injections, usable system linepack,
operational responsiveness from Iona, and the ability to accommodate a linepack increase if
overnight temperatures unexpectedly rise, causing a reduction in demand. The analysis of LNG
requirements for within-day balancing (see Chapter 6 for more information) also assumes SWP
injections of approximately 220 TJ/d.
Pressure management issues at Iona occur due to the day-to-day variations in Iona injections. In
the future, regular high Iona injection levels may require an increase in Iona beginning-of-day
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
8000 8500 9000 9500 10000
S
W
P

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

(
T
J
)
Maximum Iona Pressure (kPa)

pressure and gas DTS linepack targets. This can, however, reduce operational flexibility in
managing linepack.
3.7.3 South West Pipeline (to Iona)
The capacity to withdraw at Iona currently depends on the throughput of the Brooklyn Compressor
Station. Based on summer conditions, and after meeting demand from the Geelong Zone and the
WTS
11
, the maximum modelled withdrawals from the SWP at Iona are:
129 TJ/d with the BLP pipeline coupled with the operation of Unit 11 and Unit 12, and a minimum
pressure of 4,300 kPa at Iona
38 TJ/d if only Unit 11 is available, and
65 TJ/d if only Unit 12 is available.
Factors leading to a future reduction in the requirement to transport gas to Iona include the:
likelihood of year-round SEA Gas injections (in the medium term)
the requirement to inject gas at Iona to meet system demand, and
development of new supplies from the Otway Basin, such as the Casino, Minerva, Geographe
and Thylacine gas fields.
Withdrawals from the SWP at Iona can be shared between the UGS, the SEA Gas interconnect, and
the WTS.
Figure 3-24 shows the effect of different levels of system demand and different minimum Iona
pressures on the ability to withdraw at Iona. The modelling assumes there is no GPG operating
downstream of Brooklyn.
Simulations for the summer period indicate that there is a reduction in withdrawal capability of
approximately 1 TJ/d for every 10 TJ/d of GPG demand at Newport and by 10 TJ/d for every 10 TJ/d
of GPG demand at Laverton North.

11
Approximately 10-19 TJ/d is required to meet WTS demand. Part of the Brooklyn CS capacity can also be used to supply
the Ballarat pipeline in winter.

Figure 3-24 Withdrawals at Iona as a function of gas DTS demand

Factors affecting the operating boundary (for possible Iona withdrawals) include the:
demand downstream of Brooklyn (including the Laverton North GPG, Geelong Zone and WTS
loads), and
minimum operational pressure requirements at Iona.
During the shoulder season (September or October), minimum pressure requirements to ensure
adequate SWP linepack are:
approximately 4,300 kPa (depending on system conditions), and
4,500 kPa to provide the additional linepack to meet a 1 in 20 peak demand load in the WTS.
These figures allow for the management of a possible load increase from Laverton GPG if gas is
withdrawn at Iona.
Modelling indicates that maintaining Ionas beginning-of-day pressure at 5,000 kPa (during the
higher demand days from Sunday to Thursday in the non-winter period) will provide an extra 12 TJ
of linepack available for reserve to improve overall system security
12
.
Future increases in Ionas minimum pressure targets may be required for at least part of the year so
as to:
provide sufficient SWP security margins to ensure supply security to the WTS, and
help manage Iona withdrawals in combination with withdrawals at the Laverton North GPG.

12
See the AEMO website for more information about the System Security Guidelines.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
W
i
t
h
d
r
a
w
a
l
s

a
t

I
o
n
a

(
T
J
/
d
)
DTS Demand (TJ/d)
Iona Pmin 4000 kPa
Iona Pmin 4300 kPa
Iona Pmin 4500 kPa
Iona Pmin 5000 kPa

The requirement to maintain Iona at higher pressure, however, will lead to a reduction in the ability to
withdraw gas at Iona.
3.7.4 New South Wales interconnect (imports)
It was reported last year that the Young and Springhurst compressors are available to assist
Victorian gas import via Culcairn. When both the Young and Springhurst compressors are
operating, the maximum Culcairn import capacity is 92 TJ/d.
Figure 3-25 shows the effect of different levels of system demand on the maximum possible
capability to import gas at Culcairn. The modelling assumes the Young compressor has adequate
power to operate at constant discharge pressure of 8,500 kPa, the Springhurst compressor is
operating, the Uranquinty Power Station is not in operation, and the system was set up to maximize
the import.
Figure 3-25 Imports from New South Wales through Culcairn

If the Springhurst compressor is not operating, the import capacity is 60 TJ/d. If the Young
compressor is not operating, the capacity is 50 TJ/d. If both compressors are unavailable, the
approximate import capacity is 35 TJ/d.
The pipeline owner has advised of its commitment to commission the Wagga-Wagga Loop between
Young and Culcairn in New South Wales. The loop could increase the import capacity from 92 TJ/d
to approximately 120TJ/d based on the similar operation conditions of the gas DTS and the MSP
system.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
300 500 700 900 1100 1300
C
u
l
c
a
i
r
n

I
m
p
o
r
t

(
T
J
/
d
)
System Demand (TJ/d)

Factors affecting the operating boundary include:
gas DTS demand in Victoria and system demand in New South Wales
operational constraints in New South Wales, and
Northern Zone linepack.
No firm or non-firm supplies from New South Wales have been advised for the forecast period.
3.7.5 New South Wales interconnect (exports)
APA Group commissioned a new compressor at Culcairn during 2009. Previously, pressures north
of Culcairn were regularly too high to enable exports from the gas DTS via the New South Wales
interconnect during winter.
Exports during winter and increased exports during summer when gas DTS demand is low, can now
be achieved.
Factors affecting the operating boundary include the:
pressures on the New South Wales side of the interconnect
demand levels in the gas DTS and New South Wales
length (260 km) and diameter (300 mm) of the pipeline from Wollert to Barnawartha
Wollert CS capacity, and
Northern Zone linepack.
Export operations have limited flexibility due to an inability to switch from imports to exports on a
daily or a within-day basis. Import to export mode changes require advance planning of a day or
more, providing time for adequate pressurisation of the Northern Zone to enable exports.
Figure 3-26 shows the relationship between Culcairn export capacity via the New South Wales
Interconnect and gas DTS demand. These exports are achievable with a pressure at Culcairn of
3,000 kPa due to the operation of the Culcairn compressor.
In winter, the ability to export to New South Wales declines due to higher peak winter demand in the
gas DTS and Northern Victoria.

Figure 3-26 Exports to New South Wales at 3,000 kPa minimum pressure at Culcairn

3.7.6 Western Transmission System
The maximum modelled injections into the WTS are 28 TJ/d (assuming injections at Iona support
Iona pressures of at least 7,500 kPa for the current demand forecast). This is not a firm capacity and
requires high net injections at Iona over consecutive days to maintain the pressure.
Factors affecting the operating boundary include the:
WTS load growth (given its fringe location), and
pressures at Iona.
Depending on the preceding days SWP gas flows, Iona pressures may be high enough to supply
WTS demand without using the Iona compressors.
Figure 3-27 shows the relationship between injections into the WTS and the pressures at Iona.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300
C
u
l
c
a
i
r
n

E
x
p
o
r
t

(
T
J
/
d
)

Figure 3-27 Western Transmission System injections and Iona pressures

The WTS has unique operational pressure requirements. In terms of WTS demand:
compression at Iona is required to meet moderate and peak demands when SWP pressures at
Iona are relatively low
without Iona compression, the SWPs minimum pressure at Iona of 3,800 kPa is lower than the
normal 4,300 kPa minimum operational requirement and limits supplies to approximately 10 TJ/d,
which is insufficient except on days of low summer demand - with Iona compression, the same
minimum pressure at Iona will enable supplies of approximately 18 TJ/d, and
peaks can occur in September and October (or both), due to the regions increased food and
dairy processing plant activity, when the Iona UGS can also be in withdrawal mode.
Peak WTS demand is currently forecast to grow. As a result of this growth, Iona pressures higher
than 4,300 kPa are required to meet peak demand in winter, as well as in September and October
when Iona is in withdrawal mode and SEA Gas is not injecting. Iona pressures will need to increase
to approximately 4,500 kPa by 2012, however, to maintain WTS security of supply on a 1 in 20 day.
When Iona is not injecting gas, the WTS can be supplied with Gippsland gas via the Brooklyn
Compressor Station. Brooklyn compression can build Iona pressures over 12 to 24 hours to around
5,000 kPa if gas is not being withdrawn at Iona. This pressure enables security of supply to the
WTS on a moderate demand day without further compression at Iona.
If the Iona compressors discharge pressure is approximately 6,500 kPa, the WTS fringe pressures
at Portland and Hamilton fewer than 1 in 20 peak day conditions can be maintained until 2013.
3.7.7 System capacity
The modelled maximum individual capacities of the gas DTS pipelines are as follows:
The Longford pipeline is 1,030 TJ/d, with Longford injecting 970 TJ/d and BassGas injecting 60
TJ/d.
The SWP pipeline is 347 TJ/d.
The New South Wales interconnect is 92 TJ/d.
5
10
15
20
25
30
3,500 4,500 5,500 6,500 7,500
T
J
Iona pressure (kPa)
With Iona
compression
Without Iona
compression

Due to transmission system constraints, however, total gas DTS pipeline capacity is not determined
by summing these capacities.
Figure 3-28 shows the gas DTS system capacity under a simplified scenario where Culcairn flow is
assumed to be zero. The upper line shows the SWP capacity when Iona operates at up to
10,000 kPa, and the lower line shows the SWP capacity when Iona operates at up to 9,000 kPa. The
oblique lines show the total system demand. Figure 3-28 shows with Iona operating at pressure up
to 9,000 kPa the maximum system capacity is 1,316 TJ/d.
This figure shows the limits of system capacity with a feasible operational region below and to the
left of the coloured lines. The upper area tends to maximise Iona injections and the right hand
region maximises Longford injections.
With Iona operating at up to 10,000 kPa, the system can achieve 1,330 TJ/d.
Figure 3-28 Gas transmission system capacity
13

3.8 Committed augmentations gas transmission
This section provides information about new and modified connections and developments
commenced or concluded throughout the year.

13
Figure prepared using 2009 Custody Transfer Meter (CTM) forecast.
1300 TJ
1200 TJ
1100 TJ
1000 TJ 900 TJ
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100
S
W
P

(
T
J
/
d
)
Longford (TJ/d)
Longford vs Iona(Iona 9000kPa, Brook Ext 4500 kPa) Longford vs Iona(Iona 10000kPa, Brook Ext 4500 kPa) Capacity Lines

3.8.1 New and modified connections
Table 3-12 lists the committed new or modified gas DTS connections for 2009/10.
Table 3-12 New and modified gas DTS connections
Location Description Completion date
Castlemaine, Chiltern, Cranbourne
East, Damum, Epping, Hampton
Park, Lyndhurst
Meter upgrades 2010
Wyndham Vale A new connection Winter 2010
3.8.2 Pakenham South branch pipeline duplication
Modelling has found that the 80 mm section of the Pakenham South branch pipeline can experience
very high gas velocities under peak demand conditions. APA Group has indicated that duplication of
the small diameter section of this lateral is expected to be completed by end of June 2010.




AEMO 2010 91 Chapter 4 Demand Forecasts
Chapter 4 Demand forecasts
This chapter presents electricity and gas demand forecasts for the forecast period (2010-2019),
covering the:
Victorian electricity annual energy and maximum demand (MD) for electricity
peak day system demand and annual demand for gas supplied through the gas Declared
Transmission System (gas DTS), and
demand from gas powered generators (GPG) supplied from the gas DTS.
AEMO uses these forecasts to identify future Victorian transmission constraints and to quantify
potential development proposals.
Electricity
The electricity energy and MD forecasts, which form key inputs into Victorian electricity Declared
Shared Network (electricity DSN) planning, were prepared by the National Institute of Economic and
Industry Research (NIEIR) and AEMO in May 2010.
AEMO engaged KPMG Econtech to provide an updated assessment of the economic outlook and
policy environment for the National Electricity Market (NEM) regions in April 2010, including high
and low economic growth scenarios, which was used to prepare the forecasts in this chapter.
The forecasts presented in the VAPR are consistent with the Victorian forecasts that will be
published in AEMOs 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO).
Gas
The gas system demand and GPG forecasts were prepared by NIEIR in November 2009. The
Victorian economic outlook used in their preparation was produced by NIEIR in September 2009.
The 2009 Victorian Annual Planning Report Update (VAPR Update), available from the AEMO
website, provides an overview of the annual gas system demand forecast inputs and the forecast
approach. The report also includes:
information about the peak day forecast methodology and the probability of exceedence (POE)
weather standards
a comparison of the 2008 and 2009 gas DTS peak day and annual demand forecasts for the
period 2010-2018
information about economic growth forecasts
details about GPG demand forecasts, and
information about the demand forecasts by gas region.
Unless otherwise stated, system demand refers to demand from Tariff V (residential, small
commercial and industrial customers nominally consuming less than 10 TJ of gas per annum) and
Tariff D (large commercial and industrial customers nominally consuming more than 10 TJ of gas
per annum), and excludes GPG demand, exports, and gas withdrawn at Iona.
In this chapter:
Section 4.1 provides AEMOs 2010 Victorian electricity annual energy and MD forecasts, including:
information about key definitions and the forecast approach

summer peak demand forecasts for 2010/11-2019/20
winter peak demand forecasts for 2010- 2020
annual electricity consumption forecasts for 2010/11- 2019/20
demand-side participation (DSP) forecasts
a comparison of the 2009 and 2010 VAPR forecasts, and
semi-scheduled and non-scheduled generation forecasts.
Section 4.2 presents an overview of the gas demand forecasts developed in November 2009 and
published in the 2009 VAPR Update, including:
peak day gas demand forecasts for 2010- 2019
annual system demand for 2010- 2019
GPG demand for 2010- 2019, and
export demand (and export levels).
4.1 Electricity demand forecasts
Definitions of native energy and maximum demand
Native energy and native MD refers to the load supplied by scheduled, semi-scheduled, and
significant non-scheduled generating units.
Scheduled and semi-scheduled (a new registration category that came into effect on 31 March
2009) generating units are dispatched by AEMO through the central dispatch process. Non-
scheduled generating units are not dispatched by AEMO, and significant non-scheduled generating
units have a nameplate rating of 1 MW or more and AEMO has access to the units actual
generation data
14
.
Generally generating units with an aggregate nameplate rating of:
30 MW or more are classified as scheduled or semi-scheduled (unless AEMO approves
otherwise), and
less than 30 MW are classified as non-scheduled (unless AEMO approves otherwise).
Generating units with a nameplate rating of 30 MW or more can be classified as non-scheduled if it
is impractical for the unit to participate in AEMOs central dispatch process. Prior to 31 March 2009,
this included generators with intermittent output such as wind generation. From 31 March 2009,
generating units with intermittent output can be classified as semi-scheduled.
The energy and MD forecasts presented in this chapter are made on a native basis. Forecasts of
significant non-scheduled generation are also provided, as both annual energy projections and
expected levels of generation at the time of the forecast MD. Scheduled and semi-scheduled
forecasts can be calculated by subtracting the significant non-scheduled MD forecasts from the

14
Significant non-scheduled generators included in AEMOs 2010 VAPR forecasts include the existing and
committed Victorian wind farms (Challicum Hills, Codrington, Toora, Wonthaggi, Yambuk, Portland and
Waubra) and mini-hydros (Clover and Rubicon).

native MD forecasts. These forecasts are consistent with the forecast demand supplied by
generation dispatched through AEMOs central dispatch system.
Forecast basis
AEMOs annual energy forecasts are prepared using a high-level top-down econometric approach.
The economic scenario and electricity market inputs were developed for the forecasts by KPMG
Econtech. The forecasting impacts from energy and environmental policy measures were developed
by NIEIR.
The native energy forecasts represent total annual growth in Victorian electricity consumption. The
native MD forecasts represent the growth in electricity consumed in the single half-hour when
electricity usage is at its greatest for the year.
The key drivers of energy consumption growth include:
economic conditions, in particular Victorian gross state product (GSP) growth
population growth
energy and environment policy measures and price assumptions, and
stock and technological changes in electrical equipment and appliances.
The key drivers of MD, in addition to economic and policy impacts, include:
weather conditions
air conditioning or electric space heating penetration, and
customer responsiveness to weather conditions.
NIEIR develop peak demand forecasts for summer and winter using a simulation approach to
forecast probability distributions for the range of possible demand outcomes. The simulation model
incorporates assumptions regarding space heating and cooling appliance penetration, customer
behaviour, and warming trends developed by NIEIR from research and consumer surveys. The
10%, 50% and 90% POE MD forecasts are prepared for each energy forecast, representing the 90
th
,
50
th
and 10
th
percentiles of the distribution of MD for each season.
The forecasts assume that no DSP occurs at the time of the MD, and forecasts for DSP are
presented separately.
See the Victorian Electricity Forecast Report (available on AEMOs website) for more information
about the electricity annual energy and MD forecasting methodology.
Scenario assumptions
Three scenarios were developed: a base or medium economic growth scenario (representing KPMG
Econtechs best estimate of the outlook for the Australian economy), a high growth scenario
(optimistic) and a low growth scenario (pessimistic).
The principal source of uncertainty for the energy forecasts involved the timing and the impact of
Australian Government policies and schemes, including the CPRS. The significant uncertainty
created by the shelving of this policy means that the assumptions relating to it should be taken into
account when considering the 2010 forecasts. For the medium growth scenario, NIEIR developed
the assumptions regarding the impact of energy and environmental policy on electricity price and
demand. These impacts were reduced for the high energy scenario (i.e., assumed to cause a
smaller reduction in electricity used), and increased for the low energy scenario to account for the
inherent uncertainty in policy measure impacts.

Summary of the 2010 energy and maximum demand projections
Under the medium growth scenario, Victorias summer 10% POE MD is forecast to increase by
3.4%, from 10,425 MW in 2009/10 to 10,783 MW in summer 2010/11, and at an average rate of
2.1% per annum over the forecast period to reach 12,930 MW by 2019/20.
Victorian energy use is forecast to increase by 0.4% over 2010/11 to 52,092 GWh. After 2010/11,
average growth in energy consumption is expected to increase at an average rate of 0.9% per
annum over the forecast period to reach 56,804 GWh.
This is lower than the 1.4% per annum growth experienced over the previous 10 years, reflecting the
impact of government energy policies on energy demand, including the assumed introduction of a
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS).
4.1.1 Summer native maximum demand forecasts
Ten-year forecasts
Table 4-1 lists the forecast summer 10%, 50%, and 90% POE native MDs. From the start of the
forecast period, the summer 10% POE native MD is projected to grow each year by:
2.0% under the medium growth scenario
2.4% under the high growth scenario, and
1.7% under the low growth scenario.
Table 4-1 - Summer native maximum demand forecasts (MW)
Year POE 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

10%

10,911

11,244

11,598

11,716

11,963

12,339

12,542

12,826

13,163

13,461
High 50%

10,188

10,503

10,764

10,999

11,208

11,457

11,643

11,943

12,141

12,452

90%

9,604

9,878

10,134

10,318

10,471

10,740

10,915

11,170

11,368

11,635

10%

10,783

11,103

11,372

11,461

11,673

11,990

12,174

12,421

12,699

12,930
Medium 50%

10,063

10,367

10,567

10,754

10,934

11,129

11,302

11,566

11,712

11,959

90%

9,481

9,747

9,941

10,083

10,211

10,426

10,589

10,815

10,965

11,173

10%

10,670

10,903

11,120

11,193

11,365

11,639

11,751

11,962

12,242

12,445
Low 50%

9,952

10,168

10,343

10,495

10,638

10,793

10,896

11,127

11,281

11,503

90%

9,372

9,552

9,724

9,831

9,923

10,102

10,198

10,394

10,554

10,739

Figure 4-1 shows the summer 10%, 50%, and 90% POE native MD forecasts under the
medium growth scenario for the forecast period.

Figure 4-1 Summer native maximum demand forecasts - medium growth scenario (MW)
Forecast comparison (summer native maximum demand)
Figure 4-2 compares the 2009 and 2010 VAPR summer native MD forecasts. Compared to the
2009 VAPR, the current forecasts for the medium growth summer 10% POE MD are 81 MW, 127
MW and 133 MW higher for the 2010/11, 2014/15 and 2018/19 financial years, respectively.
Figure 4-2 Comparison of summer native maximum demand forecasts (MW)

7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
S
u
m
m
e
r

N
a
t
i
v
e

M
a
x
i
m
u
m

D
e
m
a
n
d

(
M
W
)
10% POE
50% POE
90% POE
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
2
0
0
3
/
0
4
2
0
0
4
/
0
5
2
0
0
5
/
0
6
2
0
0
6
/
0
7
2
0
0
7
/
0
8
2
0
0
8
/
0
9
2
0
0
9
/
1
0
2
0
1
0
/
1
1
2
0
1
1
/
1
2
2
0
1
2
/
1
3
2
0
1
3
/
1
4
2
0
1
4
/
1
5
2
0
1
5
/
1
6
2
0
1
6
/
1
7
2
0
1
7
/
1
8
2
0
1
8
/
1
9
2
0
1
9
/
2
0
S
u
m
m
e
r

N
a
t
i
v
e

M
a
x
i
m
u
m

D
e
m
a
n
d

(
M
W
)
2009 VAPR 10% POE 2010 VAPR 10% POE
Actual Native MD

4.1.2 Winter native maximum demand forecasts
Ten-year forecasts
Table 4-2 lists the forecast winter 10%, 50%, and 90% POE native MDs. From the start of the
forecast period, the forecast 10% POE winter native MD is projected to grow each year by:
Table 4-2 Winter native maximum demand forecasts (MW)
Year POE 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

10%

8,450

8,538

8,829

9,011

9,125

9,207

9,383

9,538

9,681

9,860
High 50%

8,295

8,386

8,670

8,839

8,948

9,035

9,212

9,365

9,509

9,659

90%

8,176

8,260

8,543

8,706

8,817

8,899

9,073

9,230

9,373

9,513

10%

8,347

8,429

8,650

8,733

8,816

8,886

9,010

9,175

9,289

9,431
Medium 50%

8,176

8,262

8,477

8,550

8,629

8,702

8,828

8,991

9,107

9,220

90%

8,057

8,137

8,353

8,422

8,503

8,572

8,695

8,863

8,977

9,081

10%

8,285

8,283

8,433

8,535

8,585

8,622

8,711

8,812

8,900

9,053
Low 50%

8,132

8,133

8,278

8,370

8,418

8,459

8,551

8,650

8,740

8,868

90%

8,014

8,008

8,154

8,243

8,294

8,331

8,421

8,524

8,614

8,733

Figure 4-3 shows the winter 10%, 50%, and 90% POE native MD forecasts under the medium
growth scenario for the forecast period.

Figure 4-3 Winter native maximum demand forecasts - medium growth scenario (MW)

Forecast comparison (winter native maximum demand)
Figure 4-4 compares the 2009 and 2010 VAPR winter native MD forecasts. Compared to the 2009
VAPR, the current forecasts for the medium-growth winter 10% POE MD are 85 MW, 199 MW and
137 MW lower for the 2010, 2014 and 2018 calendar years, respectively.
Figure 4-4 Comparison of winter native maximum demand forecasts (MW)

7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
W
i
n
t
e
r

N
a
t
i
v
e

M
a
x
i
m
u
m

D
e
m
a
n
d

(
M
W
)
10% POE
50% POE
90% POE
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
W
i
n
t
e
r

N
a
t
i
v
e

M
a
x
i
m
u
m

D
e
m
a
n
d

(
M
W
)
Actual Native MD

4.1.3 Native energy forecasts
Ten-year forecasts
Table 4-3 lists the native energy forecasts, which are projected to grow each year, from the start of
the forecast period commencing 1 July 2010, by:
Table 4-3 Native energy forecasts (GWh)
Year 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
High 52,539 54,515 55,357 55,383 55,796 56,919 57,716 58,488 59,256 60,306
Medium 52,092 53,404 54,272 53,856 53,930 54,103 54,889 55,746 56,208 56,804
Low 51,865 51,793 52,067 51,977 51,823 52,192 52,488 52,750 53,017 53,972

Figure 4-5 shows the native energy forecasts for the high, medium and low growth scenarios for the
forecast period.
Figure 4-5 Native energy forecasts (GWh)

40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
N
a
t
i
v
e

E
n
e
r
g
y

(
G
W
h
)
High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario

Forecast comparison (native energy)
Figure 4-6 compares the 2009 and 2010 VAPR native energy forecasts. Compared to the 2009
VAPR, the current forecasts are higher for the first five financial years but are almost the same from
2015/16 onward under the medium growth scenario.
Figure 4-6 Comparison of native energy forecasts (MW) (medium growth scenario)

The 2010 native energy forecasts are higher in the first five years mainly due to higher economic
projections and a lower assumed impact of government policies. The reduction to the 2010 Native
energy forecasts from 2013/14 is mainly due to Carbon price assumptions (see Appendix E.3 for
more information).
4.1.4 Demand-side participation forecasts
Demand-side participation (DSP) refers to voluntarily reducing electricity consumption in response to
a change in market conditions, such as the spot price.
Participating customers enter into confidential DSP contracts with their respective retailers. Details
of these contracts are not available to the market. To obtain confidential DSP information, AEMO, in
conjunction with the Load Forecasting Reference Group (LFRG), surveys Victorian distributors,
retailers, large industrial customers and a demand response aggregator to collect information about:
actual DSP that occurred during selected 2009/10 summer and 2009 winter peak demand times,
and
anticipated levels of DSP.
Table 4-4 lists the level of Victorian:
committed DSP (aggregated), which is the contracted quantity of DSP available at times of high
summer and winter demand, and
non-committed DSP that may be available at times of high demand, depending on market
conditions.
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
2
0
0
3
/
0
4
2
0
0
4
/
0
5
2
0
0
5
/
0
6
2
0
0
6
/
0
7
2
0
0
7
/
0
8
2
0
0
8
/
0
9
2
0
0
9
/
1
0
2
0
1
0
/
1
1
2
0
1
1
/
1
2
2
0
1
2
/
1
3
2
0
1
3
/
1
4
2
0
1
4
/
1
5
2
0
1
5
/
1
6
2
0
1
6
/
1
7
2
0
1
7
/
1
8
2
0
1
8
/
1
9
2
0
1
9
/
2
0
N
a
t
i
v
e

E
n
e
r
g
y

(
G
W
h
)
Actual Native Energy 2010 VAPR Native Energy 2009 VAPR Native Energy

Table 4-4 AEMO survey of Victorian demand-side participation, 2010 (MW)
Year Committed
AEMO 2010 Survey 54 MW
4.1.5 Major loads
In April 2009, Alcoa announced it was reducing production at its Portland Aluminium Smelter plant
by 15% from 1 July 2009. This resulted in the following assumptions for the 2010 VAPR energy and
MD forecasts:
Under the medium growth scenario, smelter production will return to normal (pre-2008/09
production levels) in late 2011, remaining that way for the rest of the forecast period.
Under the high growth scenario, smelter production will return to normal in mid-2010, and then
grow at just under 2% per annum for the rest of the forecast period.
Under the low scenario, smelter production will be lower than expected in 2009/10, before a
partial recovery over the next three years, then returning to 90% of normal production levels for
the rest of the forecast period.
The forecasts account for the planned Victorian desalination plant at Wonthaggi
15
, details of which
assume a 150 GL capacity installed in 2011/12 under all scenarios, increasing to:
200 GL in 2016/17 under the medium growth scenario
200 GL in 2015/16 and up to 220 GL in 2017/18 under the high growth scenario, and
170 GL in 2017/18 under the low scenario.
4.1.6 Comparison of the 2009 and 2010 VAPR forecasts
Table 4-5 lists a comparison of the 2009 and 2010 VAPR forecasts.
Table 4-5 Summary of 2010/11 forecasts (VAPR 2010 compared with VAPR 2009)

2010 VAPR 2009 VAPR Change
Summer 2010/11 10% POE Native MD 10,783 MW 10,702 MW 81 MW (0.8%)
Winter 2010 10% POE Native MD 8,347 MW 8,262 MW 85 MW (1.0%)
2010/11 Annual Energy 52,092 GWh 51,436 GWh 656 GWh (1.3%)
2010/11 Australian GDP Growth 3.6% 4.0% -0.4%
2010/11 Victorian GSP Growth 2.5% 2.7% -0.2%

The quick recovery of the Australian economy has driven the change in the outlook. In the 2009
VAPR, Australian GDP and Victorian GSP were projected to grow at -0.2% and -0.8% over the
2009/10 financial year, respectively. The current estimates for the 2009/10 year are 2.3% and 1.6%
for GDP and GSP, respectively.
Figure 4-7 shows the Victorian GSP projections used to develop both sets of forecasts.

15
http://www.dpi.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrenpl.nsf/LinkView/5249619A2A213442CA2573BE007EEAA992FBC7C133A
6F520CA2572DA007FAB8B.

Figure 4-7 2009 and 2010 Victorian GSP forecast comparison

The 2010 VAPR annual energy consumption forecast for 2010/11 has increased by more than
650 GWh when compared with the 2009 VAPR forecast. Most of the increase is due to faster than
previously projected economic recovery.
When compared with the 2009 forecasts, the increases in the 2010 summer and winter MD
forecasts, of 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively, is also a result of the increase in the forecast Victorian
GSP.
4.1.7 Semi-scheduled and non-scheduled generation forecasts
From 2010/11-2019/20, native energy is forecast to grow by 0.9% under the medium growth
scenario. Using the projections of semi-scheduled and non-scheduled generation supplied by
KPMG Econtech, and AEMOs wind generation projections, the annual electricity load supplied by:
semi-scheduled generation is forecast to grow by an average of 57% per annum
non-scheduled generation is forecast to grow by an average of 9.8% per annum, and
scheduled generation is forecast to decline by an average of approximately -0.4% per annum.
Figure 4-8 shows projections of future wind farm capacity based on KPMG Econtechs projections.
The projections assume that all future wind developments with an aggregate nameplate rating of 30
MW or more will be classified as semi-scheduled.
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
2
0
0
6
/
0
7
2
0
0
7
/
0
8
2
0
0
8
/
0
9
2
0
0
9
/
1
0
2
0
1
0
/
1
1
2
0
1
1
/
1
2
2
0
1
2
/
1
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2
0
1
3
/
1
4
2
0
1
4
/
1
5
2
0
1
5
/
1
6
2
0
1
6
/
1
7
2
0
1
7
/
1
8
2
0
1
8
/
1
9
2
0
1
9
/
2
0
V
i
c
t
o
r
i
a
n

G
S
P

(
$

m
i
l

0
6
-
0
7
)
Actual
2010 VAPR
2009 VAPR

Figure 4-8 Installed wind capacity projection (MW)

Figure 4-9 shows a breakdown of generation types contributing to the medium growth scenario
native energy projections.
Figure 4-9 Energy contribution projection (GWh)

Table 4-6 lists the projections of non-scheduled generation capacity, energy contribution (i.e. annual
generation) and contribution to the summer and winter MD (i.e. generation level).
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d

W
i
n
d

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

(
M
W
)
Existing Committed Announced (assumed to proceed) 2009 VAPR Scenario 1 2009 VAPR Scenario 2
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
E
n
e
r
g
y

(
G
W
h
)
Non-scheduled non-wind Non-scheduled wind Semi-scheduled Scheduled

Table 4-6 Projections of non-scheduled generation
Year Capacity (MW)
Energy Contribution
(GWh)
Summer MD
Contribution (MW)
Winter MD
Contribution (MW)
2010/11 472 747 51 38
2011/12 493 1,017 58 42
2012/13 585 1,258 132 88
2013/14 629 1,438 165 109
2014/15 629 1,524 165 109
2015/16 657 1,619 168 111
2016/17 663 1,637 168 111
2017/18 691 1,725 170 113
2018/19 713 1,784 172 114
2019/20 713 1,784 172 114

The non-scheduled generation capacity growth rates have increased from a 2009 forecast of 3% per
annum, to a 2010 forecast of 4.8% per annum from 2010/11-2018/19.
Semi-scheduled generation capacity is expected to grow by 55% per annum over the forecast
period.
4.1.8 Further information
Terminal station forecasts
In addition to the regional native energy and MD forecasts, AEMO prepares forecasts for points of
connection within the Victorian electricity DSN. Maximum active power and reactive power demands
for the 10% and 50% POE forecast levels, for each of the financial years 2009/10 to 2018/19
inclusive, are provided for each terminal station in Victoria.
System participants supply AEMO with the forecast maximum levels of active demand and
associated reactive demand that they expect to be supplied to their licensed distribution area over
the next 10 years (separated according to their points of connection at each terminal station). Once
received, the forecast information is aggregated to produce consolidated bottom-up terminal station
forecasts. These forecasts, which were prepared in September 2009, are presented in Appendix
E4. An updated set of forecasts will be prepared and published on AEMOs website in September
2010.


Related publications
This chapter of the VAPR presents the 10-year native energy and MD forecasts, as well as the non-
scheduled generation forecasts. Appendix E1 presents historical Victorian electricity energy and
demand and an assessment of the 2009 VAPR forecasts. Appendix E2 presents the Victorian GSP
forecast forecasts. Appendix E3 summarises the government policy assumptions.
Additional information relevant to the forecasting process is available in a series of related
publications:
The Victorian Electricity Forecast Report 2010 (available on AEMOs website
16
). This report
contains information on the energy and MD forecasting methodologies.
KPMG Econtechs reports (which will be published with the 2010 AEMO ESOO). These three
reports contain energy policy, economic scenario, and electricity market inputs (reports 1 and 2)
and semi-scheduled and non-scheduled generation forecasts (report 3).
Terminal Station Demand Forecasts 2009/2010-2018/2019 (available on AEMOs website).
4.2 Gas demand forecasts
This section provides a summary of the gas demand forecasts published in the 2009 VAPR Update
in November 2009. This report is available on AEMOs website and includes detailed forecasts for
the:
annual, peak day and peak hour system demand for 2010-2019
annual, peak day and peak hour demand by gas region for 2010-2019
monthly peak day and peak hour demand for the system and by gas region for 2010
GPG forecasts for 2010-2019, and
gas export demand.
An updated set of gas demand forecasts for system demand and for GPG will be prepared and
published by AEMO by the end of November 2010.
4.2.1 Peak day demand forecasts
Peak day demand forecasts are prepared for a medium economic growth scenario, and exclude
withdrawals from Iona, GPG demand, and export demand.

16
http://www.AEMO.com.au

Table 4-7 lists the 1 in 2 and 1 in 20 peak day system demand forecasts.
Table 4-7 Peak day system demand forecast, 2010-2019 (TJ/d)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Average
Annual
Growth
1 in 2 1,181 1,193 1,197 1,198 1,204 1,209 1,213 1,223 1,231 1,238
Annual
Growth
1.02% 0.34% 0.08% 0.50% 0.42% 0.33% 0.82% 0.65% 0.57% 0.53%
1 in 20 1,296 1,310 1,315 1,317 1,323 1,330 1,334 1,347 1,356 1,365
Annual
Growth
1.08% 0.38% 0.15% 0.46% 0.53% 0.30% 0.97% 0.67% 0.66% 0.58%

Peak day demand is sensitive to weather conditions, with an increasing component of heating load
expected on colder winter days. The peak day forecasts are presented for two weather standards:
The 1 in 2 peak day represents a milder standard, with weather conditions for the day expected
to be exceeded once every two years, or a 50% probability of exceedence (POE), or the peak
day demand during an average winter.
The 1 in 20 peak day represents more severe weather conditions, expected to be exceeded once
in 20 years, or a 5% POE. This is the planning standard for assessing gas supply adequacy and
transmission system capacity.
Figure 4-10 shows the 1 in 2 and 1 in 20 peak day forecasts, compared with the 1 in 2 peak day
forecasts produced by distribution businesses.
Figure 4-10 Peak day system demand forecast, 2010-2019 (TJ/d)

0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
T
J
1 in 2 1 in 20 Distributors

4.2.2 Annual demand forecasts
Table 4-8 lists the annual demand forecasts for low, medium and high growth scenarios.
Table 4-8 Annual system demand forecasts, 2010-2019 (PJ/yr)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Average
annual
growth
2010-2019
System demand
High 212.5 215.4 217.2 218.6 220.1 221.6 223.1 225.1 226.9 228.8 0.83%
Medium 208.2 210.1 210.7 211.1 211.4 211.9 212.3 213.1 213.9 214.6 0.34%
Low 204.4 205.2 204.8 204.1 203.5 202.9 202.3 202.1 201.8 201.5 -0.16%
System demand by tariff group (medium growth)
Tariff V 123.2 124.2 124.7 125.1 125.8 126.6 127.4 128.6 129.7 130.8 0.67%
Tariff D 85.0 85.9 86.0 86.0 85.6 85.2 84.9 84.5 84.2 83.8 -0.16%

Tariff V demand increases are driven by population growth, employment levels and household
income, and are mitigated by improved gas appliance efficiency, increased reverse cycle air
conditioner usage for heating, and reduced water heating demand due to lower water usage.
Factors affecting Tariff D demand include building cycle sensitivities and increased manufacturing
sector competition from overseas imports.
4.2.3 Gas powered generation demand
AEMOs 2009 VAPR Update provided GPG demand forecast updates following a series of
developments, including:
the expected Australian Government CPRS, which will affect the gas demand for GPG located in
Victoria
the planned commissioning of Stage 1 of Mortlake Power Station (550 MW Open Cycle Gas
Turbine) in October 2010 with associated dedicated gas pipeline, and
planned and publicly announced GPG projects with plans to source gas without contributing to
demand on the Victorian gas DTS.
Historically, GPG demand has been sensitive to a number of factors, including:
weather conditions, particularly during extreme weather events in summer and winter when peak
electricity demands are highest
unplanned generation plant outages
contractual arrangements between electricity retailers and individual GPGs, and
planned load transfers associated with National Electricity Market (NEM) adequacy of supplies
and regional capacity transfers.
The factors that make up the total GPG demand forecasts are:
capacity support for planned and unplanned generation plant outages
peak support for high electricity demands
drought support due to water restrictions on hydroelectric and coal-fired generation, and
carbon signals.
Forecasts are prepared for a low, medium and high GPG gas demand scenario.

Figure 4-11 shows GPG demand growth under all three scenarios. These forecasts are indicative
only, since annual GPG demand is highly variable. For example, annual GPG demand averaged 9.7
PJ from 2000 to 2006, and 29.6 PJ from 2007 to 2008. The GPG scenarios shown here include only
gas DTS-connected GPG demand.
Figure 4-11 Low, medium and high gas DTS-connected GPG gas demand growth, 2010-2019
(PJ)

It is expected that the majority of the GPG growth will be driven by increased output from existing
GPG. Under the high growth scenario, additional demand from new Open Cycle Gas Turbine
(OCGT) or Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) plant, or the conversion of existing OCGT to
CCGT, is forecast on the gas DTS.
Table 4-9 lists the annual demand forecasts for the low, medium and high growth scenario
combined with a low, medium and high GPG demand scenario, respectively.
Table 4-9 Annual system and GPG gas demand forecast, 2010-2019 (PJ)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Average
annual
growth
2010-2019
High 234.5 238.4 245.3 252.0 258.7 267.8 275.4 283.7 291.9 300.2 2.78%
Medium 223.1 224.0 228.3 233.1 237.1 238.9 242.9 247.2 249.4 252.9 1.40%
Low 215.8 215.2 215.3 217.1 217.4 218.0 217.3 219.9 220.8 222.8 0.35%

Figure 4-12 shows the annual system demand and GPG gas demand forecasts for the low, medium
and high growth scenarios for the period 2010-2019.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
T
J
Low Medium High

Figure 4-12 Annual system and GPG gas demand forecast, 2010-2019 (PJ)

4.2.4 Export demand scenarios
In the past, exports to New South Wales via Culcairn normally occurred outside the winter peak
period. Injections occurred at Culcairn from June to August in 2006, while 2007 experienced net
exports all year round. This trend has continued throughout 2008 and there have been no net
imports through Culcairn. Higher exports have occurred since commissioning of the compressor at
Culcairn in readiness for commissioning of the Uranquinty Power Station in New South Wales. For
the 12 months to the end of September 2009, there were exports of 4.6 PJ for October 2008 to April
2009, and imports of 3.9 PJ for May 2009 to September 2009 at Culcairn, compared to exports of
3.5 PJ for the year to September 2008. It is reasonable to assume that exports may increase in the
future at Culcairn.
Interstate export via VicHub is currently negligible. Exports at VicHub can be delivered to either
New South Wales or Tasmania. No significant change is expected to VicHub exports in 2010.
Additional GPG in New South Wales may provide the opportunity for increased exports to New
South Wales from VicHub.
4.2.5 Gas region forecasts
See the 2009 VAPR Update (available on the AEMO website) for more information about forecast
annual, monthly, peak day, and peak hour system demand by gas region. See Chapter 3 for more
information about the gas regions.

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
P
J
Year
GPG (High) GPG (Medium) GPG (Low)
System Demand (High) System Demand (Medium) System Demand (Low)

AEMO 2010 109 Chapter 5 Supply Forecasts
Chapter 5 Supply Forecasts
This chapter presents supply forecasts for electricity and gas for the forecast period (2010-2019 and
2010-2014, respectively). This includes forecasts of Victorian electricity supplies, and of annual and
peak day supplies of gas transported through the gas Declared Transmission System (DTS).
Electricity
The electricity supply forecasts are presented in AEMOs 2009 Electricity Statement of Opportunities
(ESOO). They include details about scheduled generation, committed projects (generation), and
wind power generation (installed capacities).
Gas
The gas supply forecasts are based on information published in the 2009 VAPR Update (November
2009), and provided by gas producers, storage providers and market participants. They assume that
events affecting supply in markets elsewhere are unlikely to interrupt gas supplies to the Victorian
market.
In this chapter:
Section 5.1 provides high-level information about electricity and gas interactions relevant to
electricity and gas supplies.
Section 5.2 presents forecasts of peak day electricity supplies.
Section 5.3 presents forecasts of peak day, monthly (for 2010), and annual gas supplies and
storage, including information about Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) requirements for within-day
balancing.
5.1 Supply forecast synergies
This section highlights specific supply synergies relevant to the 2010 VAPR and the relationship
between electricity and gas.
Victorias electrical energy and gas is sourced mostly from the Latrobe Valley/Gippsland area, east
of Melbourne. Almost 80% of Victorias electricity generating capability is located in the Eastern
Corridor, while almost 70% of peak day gas supply capability comes from Gippsland, with the region
forecast to supply over 90% of Victorias total gas demand in 2010.
Current gas supply forecasts provided by participants indicate a reduced reliance on gas from
Gippsland over the next five years.
5.2 Electricity supply
5.2.1 Electricity supply forecast
Information about the summer and winter electricity supply forecasts by region and power station
can be found in AEMOs 2009 ESOO. See Chapter 7, Section 7.2.1, for a more detailed supply and
demand balance forecast for summer 2009/10.

Table 5-1 lists a summary of the terminal stations, connection types, fuel types and heat rates for
each power station.
Table 5-1 Generation connections, fuel types, and heat rates
17

Generation
Terminal
station
Connection
voltage
Fuel type
Thermal
efficiency
Heat rate
(MWh sent
out per TJ
fuel burnt)
Eastern Corridor
Bairnsdale Not applicable 66 kV Gas Turbine/OCGT 34% 94
Hazelwood Hazelwood
500 kV and
220 kV
Brown Coal 22% 61
Jeeralang A Jeeralang 220 kV Gas Turbine/OCGT 22.9% 64
Jeeralang B Jeeralang 220 kV Gas Turbine/OCGT 22.9% 64
Loy Yang A Loy Yang 500 kV Brown Coal 27.2% 76
Loy Yang B Loy Yang 500 kV Brown Coal 26.6% 74
Energy Brix
Complex
Morwell 220 kV Brown Coal 24% 67
Toora Wind Farm Not applicable 66 kV Wind Farm

n/a
Valley Power Loy Yang 220 kV Gas Turbine/OCGT 24% 67
Wonthaggi N/A 66kV Wind Farm

n/a
Yallourn Yallourn
500 kV and
220 kV
Brown Coal 23.5% 65
South-West Corridor
Mortlake
Heywood
Moorabool loop
500 kV Gas Fired 32% 89
Codrington Not applicable 66 kV Wind Farm

n/a
Cape Bridgewater
(APD 220 kV)
Portland (APD
Smelter)
220 kV Wind Farm

n/a
Yambuk (TGTS
66 kV)
Not applicable 66 kV Wind Farm

n/a
Northern Corridor
Bogong McKay Creek 220 kV Hydro

n/a
Dartmouth Dartmouth 220 kV Hydro

n/a
Eildon Eildon 220 kV Hydro

n/a
Hume (VIC) Wodonga 66 kV Hydro

n/a
McKay Creek McKay Creek 220 kV Hydro

n/a
West Kiewa West Kiewa 220 kV Hydro

n/a

17
Source: ACIL Tasman, Fuel Resource, New Entry and Generation Costs in the NEM, Draft Report Feb
2009.

Generation
Terminal
station
Connection
voltage
Fuel type
Thermal
efficiency
Heat rate
(MWh sent
out per TJ
fuel burnt)
Anglesea Anglesea 220 kV Brown Coal 27.2% 76
Laverton North Laverton North 220 kV
Gas
Turbine/OCGT
30.4% 85
Newport Newport 220 kV Steam Turbine 33.3% 93
Somerton Not applicable 66 kV
Gas
Turbine/OCGT
24% 67
Regional Victoria
Waubra
Ballarat
Horsham Loop
220 kV Wind Farm

n/a
Challicum Hills
Ballarat
Horsham loop
66 kV Wind Farm

n/a

Figure 5-1 shows the location of the generation listed in Table 5-1. Where generation is connected
below 220 kV and is not adjacent to a terminal station, it is not shown as connected to the
transmission network, and its approximate position is given as rough guide only.
Figure 5-1 Generation locations

Portland Wind
Energy project
Jeeralang A & B
West Kiewa
Newport
Anglesea
Dartmouth
McKay Creek
Eildon
Yallourn
Energy Brix Complex
Hazelwood
Loy Yang
A & B
Valley Power
Bogong
Hume
Waubra
Challicum Hills
Mortlake
Codrington
Yambuk
Laverton
North
Somerton
Wonthaggi
Toora
Bairnsdale
Wind powered
Hydro powered
Fossil-fuel powered

5.3 Gas supply
5.3.1 Peak day gas supply forecasts
For planning purposes, gas supply is classified as either firm or non-firm, where:
firm supply is the aggregate contracted maximum daily quantity (MDQ) available to the market
through commercial arrangements between market participants and gas producers or storage
providers, and
non-firm supply is subject to market participants offering gas on the gas day, and may depend on
interconnecting pipeline operating conditions and contracts.
Table 5-2 lists a summary of the forecast winter peak day firm and non-firm supplies by gas region
and injection point for the forecast period. It also provides a comparison with the 2009 VAPR
forecast for 2010.
The gas supply forecasts are provided by market participants in accordance with the National Gas
Rules (NGR). As a result, this update does not provide an extended supply forecast to 2019.
Table 5-2 Peak day gas supply forecast, 2010-2014 (TJ/d)
Gas region
Injection
point
2010
(2009
VAPR)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gippsland
Zone
Longford firm 925 969.5 982.5 893 891 891
Longford non-
firm
130 134.5 148 168.3 162.3 166.7

VicHub firm 70 63 60 0 0 0
VicHub non-
firm
40 10 0 0 0 0

BassGas firm 67 67 67 67 67 67
Total
Longford,
VicHub and
BassGas

1,232 1,244 1,257.5 1,128.3 1,120.3 1,124.7
Western Zone Iona UGS firm 500 288 236 236 236 236
Iona UGS
non-firm
0 282 334 334 334 334

Otway firm 0 189 189 189 189 189
Otway non-
firm
0 0 0 0 0 0

SEA Gas firm 78 110 110 100 100 100
SEA Gas non-
firm
9 1.5 1.5 1.5 5 5
Total Iona
and SEA
Gas
1

587 870.5 870.5 860.5 864 864
Northern
Zone
Culcairn firm 0 35 35 35 35 35
Culcairn non-
firm
10 15 15 15 15 15


The forecast totals represent an aggregate of the individual sources of supply at each location, as
provided by market participants. For example, supply from the Casino field is included in the
Iona/Underground Storage (UGS) forecast for the forecast period.
It should be noted that the producers at Longford are negotiating for further contracted capacity for
2010 onwards.
Figure 5-2 shows the total winter peak day firm (including LNG) and non-firm supplies for the
forecast period.
Figure 5-2 Peak day gas supply forecast, 2010-2014 (TJ/d)

5.3.2 Annual gas supply forecasts
Table 5-3 lists a summary of the annual firm (excluding LNG) and non-firm supplies by gas region
and injection point for the forecast period.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
S
U
P
P
L
Y

(
T
J
/
d
)
Non-firm
Firm
Total
(excluding
LNG)

1,829 2,164.5 2,178 2,038.8 2,034.3 2,038.7
Melbourne
and Geelong
Zone
LNG firm
2
87 87 87 87 87 87
Total
(including
LNG)

1,916 2,251.5 2,265 2,125.8 2,121.3 2,125.7
1. It is understood that the total for Iona and SEA Gas is available to both South Australia and Victoria and the quantity
available to the Victorian Market will be dependant on the market
2. APA Group advises that all retailer contracts for LNG storage expire on 31 January 2011

Table 5-3 Annual gas supply forecast, 2010-2014 (PJ/yr)
Gas region Injection point 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gippsland
Zone
Longford firm 295.2 302.2 285.5 268.5 268.5
Longford non-firm 33.9 38.1 38.6 35.4 35.7
VicHub firm 18.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
VicHub non-firm 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
BassGas firm 20.0 21.6 21.3 22.7 22.8
BassGas non-firm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Longford,
VicHub and
BassGas
370.1 379.9 345.4 326.6 327
Western
Zone
Iona UGS firm 50.1 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.6
Iona UGS non-firm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Otway firm 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0
Otway non-firm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SEA Gas firm 2.2 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
SEA Gas non-firm 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.8 1.8
Total Iona and SEA
Gas
106.8 98.0 95.1 96.4 96.4
Northern
Zone
Culcairn non-firm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total (excluding
LNG)
476.9 477.9 440.5 423.0 423.4
Melbourne
and
Geelong
Zone
LNG firm 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Total (including
LNG)
477.4 480.4 441 423.5 423.9

Figure 5-3 shows the total annual firm (excluding LNG) and non-firm supplies for the forecast period.

Figure 5-3 Annual gas supply forecast, 2010-2014 (PJ/yr)

5.3.3 Monthly peak day gas supply forecasts for 2010
This section presents the monthly demand forecasts and the monthly demand-supply outlook for
January-December 2010.
Table 5-4 lists the monthly peak day firm and non-firm supply forecasts provided by participants.
The quantities available at each system injection point have been adjusted to reflect plant
maintenance outages, recall times and ramp rates (where applicable). These adjustments
particularly affect the LNG and UGS facilities. Participants have indicated that there are contracts
for imports and exports for gas through Culcairn. What occurs on any day will be market-driven.
Total reported gas supply increases are mainly due to increases reported from the Otway basin.
Table 5-4 Monthly firm and non-firm supply, July 2010-December 2010 (TJ/d)

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Longford 1,094.0 1,094.0 1,094.0 1,104.0 1,104.0 1,104.0
VicHub 72.5 72.5 72.5 72.5 72.5 72.5
BassGas 67.0 67.0 0 67.0 0 67.0
Iona 570.0 570.0 570.0 0 570.0 570.0
SEA Gas 111.5 111.5 111.5 111.5 111.5 111.5
Otway 189 189 189 189 189 189
Culcairn 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0
LNG 87 87 87 43 43 87
Total Supply 2,226.0 2,226.0 2,159.0 1,622.0 2,125.0 2,236.0

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
S
U
P
P
L
Y

(
P
J
/
y
)
Non-firm
Firm

Monthly peak day demand-supply scenarios
Table 5-5 lists the monthly peak day demand-supply scenarios, including GPG demand and exports.
Table 5-5 Monthly peak day demand-supply scenarios, July-December 2010 (TJ/d)

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nominal
Supply
(excluding
LNG)
1,316 1,316 1,316 1,316 1,030 1,030
Scheduled
LNG
37 37 37 0 0 0
1 in 20 System
Demand
1,296 1,296 1,296 940 846 689
Exports
1
35 35 35 51 58 66
GPG 20 20 20 100 100 150
Surplus 2 2 2 225 26 125
Spare LNG 50 50 50 43 43 87
1. Exports assumed for illustration purposes for the supply/demand balance

It is assumed that total system supply from November to December is constrained to 1,030 TJ/d,
being the current Longford pipeline injection capacity. This is taken as a worst case scenario for this
time of year when Iona may not be injecting.
From recent experience, supply will be available from Otway sources in non-winter months. It is also
assumed that 1,316 TJ/d is available for the May-October period, based on the aggregate of
deliverable supply from the Longford pipeline and Iona (no supply is assumed via Culcairn).
Scheduled maintenance at Longford during November-March is not expected to affect total supplies
from Longford, VicHub and BassGas. See Chapter 5 for more information about the peak day
transmission system capacity forecasts.
The monthly peak day demand-supply scenario assumes that:
1 in 20 peak day system demands will apply every month, except for December-February, where
the forecasts instead assume that GPG demand drives peak gas DTS demand on very hot days -
as a result, summer peak day system demand forecasts are adjusted to have no heating demand
for December-February
there will be minimal exports from June-September on 1 in 20 peak days
there may be approximately 70 TJ/d of exports/Iona withdrawals from December-February with
lower values over the shoulder and winter period of up to 35 TJ/d
up to 200 TJ/d of GPG demand occurs in January and February, and
due to the severity of the June-September system demand profile, LNG is required for within-day
balancing on peak days. In 2010, approximately 37 TJ of LNG is expected to be required on 1 in
20 peak days in June-September based on the modelling of within-day balancing LNG
requirements (see Sections 5.3.6 and 5.3.7 for more information about LNG requirements).


5.3.4 Gas supplies and storage
See Chapter 3 for information about the gas DTS, its pipelines, injection points, and regions.
Longford
The Longford plant, located near Sale in South Gippsland, processes gas flowing from the Bass
Straits Gippsland Basin gas fields and injects it into the gas DTS via the Longford metering station.
The Longford plant is the largest producer of gas for the Victorian market.
The winter peak day firm supply from Longford is 969 TJ/d for 2010. There is a slight decrease in
the reported firm supply in 2010 that can be explained by the market taking a shorter-term approach
to entering into firm supply contracts, and new supplies from the Otway Basin. As a result, there will
be a greater reliance on non-firm supplies from 2010 onwards. It is expected that participants will
negotiate further firm supplies closer to the time.
VicHub
VicHub, located at Longford, has a system injection point for gas flow from the Eastern Gas Pipeline
(EGP). VicHub has a winter peak day injection capacity of up to 110 TJ/d. Current advice, however,
has supply for winter 2010 at 63 TJ/d firm and 10 TJ/d non-firm. It has been advised that this will
remain the same for the forecast period.
BassGas
BassGas, located near Pakenham, is the system injection point for gas from the offshore Yolla gas
field, which is supplied via the BassGas undersea pipeline and processed at Lang Lang. The winter
peak day firm supply from BassGas is 67 TJ/d for the forecast period.
Iona
The Iona gas plant facility, located near the township of Port Campbell in South West Victoria, has a
winter peak day processing/injection capacity of approximately 570 TJ/d, and is the processing and
system injection point for gas from the offshore Casino gas field.
The operating boundary of the South West Pipeline (SWP) during normal winter operations limits the
scheduling of gas for gas DTS injection at Iona to 315 TJ/d. However, the current declared capacity
of the SWP is 347 TJ/d (see Chapter 3, Section 3.7.2, for more information about the SWP
capacity). Iona gas is also injected into the SEA Gas pipeline for export to South Australia.
The 18 PJ holding capacity of the UGS is assumed to be full or nearly full before the start of each
winter. Holding capacity will be increased to 20 PJ during 2010 and further increased to 22 PJ for
2011. Higher Iona UGS firm supply forecasts are due to additional contributions from the Casino gas
field.
SEA Gas
The SEA Gas processing facility, located near the township of Port Campbell in South West Victoria,
is the system injection point for gas from the offshore Minerva gas field, and the Otway Basin,
Geographe and Thylacine gas field supply developments. From this injection point, gas can be
injected into the gas DTS, the SEA Gas pipeline (for export to Adelaide) or the UGS.
The winter peak day firm supply from SEA Gas is 100 TJ/d in 2010. Additional supply from SEAGas
(up to plant capacity) may be available to the gas DTS, depending on market conditions.

Otway
The Otway gas plant located north of Port Campbell in South West Victoria began production in
September 2007.
Conventional gas from the offshore Thylacine and Geographe gas fields in the Otway basin is
transported via an offshore and onshore pipeline, and is processed at the Otway gas plant.
Gas from the Otway plant can be injected into the Victorian gas DTS through the Otway, SEA Gas
or Iona injection points.
Culcairn
The New South Wales interconnect, which is metered at Culcairn in New South Wales, has the
capacity to import 92 TJ/d into the Victorian gas market when both the Young and Springhurst
compressors are operating, and the Uranquinty Power Station is offline. Participants indicate that
supplies of 35 TJ/d will be firm for 2010, and an extra 15 TJ/d will be non-firm in later years. Other
participants indicate that there may be export at Culcairn.
APA GasNet has informed AEMO that gas DTS augmentation in the Northern Zone will be
completed during winter 2010. This will involve installing two new compressors at the Wollert
Compressor Station, pipeline operating pressure uprating of the Wollert to Euroa pipeline, and
installation of flow reversal capability at the Springhurst Compressor Station.
LNG
The Dandenong LNG storage facility liquefies and stores LNG for maintaining system security on
high demand days and for peak shaving. LNG is also critical for managing system security in the
event of restrained supply or transmission failure from Longford or Iona. The existing LNG tank has
a storage capacity of 12,000 tonnes (659 TJ)
18
. See Section 5.3.8 for information about the LNG
Security Reserve.
Assumptions involving the LNG storage facility include the following:
The LNG tank will be full or nearly full prior to the start of each winter.
A firm vaporising capacity of up to 100 tonnes per hour (t/h) will be available over 16 hours for
peak shaving
19
. This capacity equates to the vaporisation of 87 TJ/d, reflecting the contracted
firm rate for the forecast period.
Normally, LNG is not scheduled from the beginning-of-day, but is included in a reschedule later in
the day
20
. For within-day balancing purposes, LNG only effectively supports system pressures when
injected by 10 pm on the day it is required.
Given LNG is only available for peak shaving over 11 hours rather than the contracted time of 16
hours, peak day planning assumes 60 TJ/d is available for within-day balancing
21
. After 10 pm,
further LNG injections only build up linepack for the following day.

18
APA Group advise that as of September 2009, 1 tonne of LNG has an energy equivalent of 54.9 GJ.
19
This is based on APA Groups firm LNG rate, which allows for an outage of one of three pumps and one of
three vaporiser units.
20
LNG can be scheduled from the beginning-of-day.

LNG liquefaction to replenish stock levels is planned on a monthly basis, with the potential to order
liquefaction of up to 1,500 tonnes per month, averaging approximately 50 tonnes per day (2.7 TJ/d).
5.3.5 Peak day Liquefied Natural Gas requirement
This section presents an analysis of LNG requirements for peak day within-day balancing and for
the winter peak periods (May to September) for the forecast period (2010-2014).
This chapter presents forecasts of the daily supply of gas available for injection. Transmission
constraints and pipeline operating boundaries, however, limit daily supply. As a result, LNG is
required on high demand days to address within-day constraints due to limited pipeline capacity and
usable linepack.
LNG use falls into one of three categories (the first two categories are modelled for this analysis):
1. LNG required for within-day balancing, scheduled out of price-merit order (to manage
transmission constraints, supply or transmission outages).
2. LNG required for peak shaving on very high demand days, scheduled in price-merit order.
3. LNG scheduled in merit order on high demand days because it is priced lower than scheduled
gas from other marginal supplies (such as Iona or VicHub).
The Longford and BassGas plants generally have adequate supply and capacity over the summer
months to support system demand, GPG demand, and withdrawals at Iona, Culcairn and VicHub.
Therefore LNG would not normally be required in summer.
To analyse future demand growth and assess the adequacy of gas supplies and LNG storage during
winter, AEMO uses two measures that involve forecasting LNG requirements for:
peak days using deterministic modelling, and
the winter peak period using probabilistic modelling, based on outcomes from simulations
applying the full range of weather conditions.
See Appendix G 3 for more information about deterministic and probabilistic modelling, and within-
day balancing. See Chapter 3 for more information about summer peak export capacities.
5.3.6 Peak day Liquefied Natural Gas requirement
Table 5-6 lists the LNG requirements for 1 in 2 peak day modelling. System demand is based on the
current five-year forecasts and GPG demand is based on an assumed 90 TJ/d (making the total
demand approximately equal to a 1 in 20 day). The table also includes the LNG requirements for
both flat and profiled injection rates at Iona.
Profiled injection rates refer to the practise of higher injections in the morning and lower injections in
the afternoon. See Chapter 8 for information about the application of gas planning criteria. See
Appendix G 4 for more information about profiled injections.
Table 5-7 lists the LNG requirements for 1 in 20 peak day modelling with no GPG demand, and with
injections at Iona at a flat rate and a profiled rate.
Table 5-8 lists the LNG requirements for 1 in 20 peak day modelling with an assumed 25 TJ/d GPG
demand (observed in July 2007), and with injections at Iona at a flat rate and a profiled rate.

21
The LNG used at 100 t/h for 11 hours (11 am-10 pm) is 1,100 tonnes (60 TJ).

The results for 1 in 2 peak day and 1 in 20 peak day LNG requirements demonstrate that the LNG
required before 10 pm will not exceed the 60 TJ/d available for within-day balancing in 2010. This is
the case for both flat and profiled injection rates at Iona, although to a lesser extent with a profiled
injection rate.
In both the 1 in 2 and 1 in 20 peak day cases, profiled injection rates at Iona can be used to
supplement the role of LNG in addressing within-day constraints and usable linepack.
Despite the latters greater total demand, more LNG is used in the 1 in 2 peak day case compared to
the 1 in 20 peak day case, as it is assumed that most of the GPG will be used before 10 pm. This
depletes linepack more than system demand for the same total demand.
Table 5-6 1 in 2 peak day LNG requirement with GPG demand, 2010-2014 (TJ/d)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Forecast system demand 1,181 1,193 1,197 1,198 1,204
Assumed GPG demand 90 90 90 90 90
LNG requirement for flat injection
rate at Iona
46 50 51 52 54
LNG requirement for profiled
injection rate at Iona
27 31 32 32 34

Table 5-7 1 in 20 peak day LNG requirement, 2010-2014 (TJ/d)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
rate at Iona
37 40 42 42 44
19 24 26 26 28

Table 5-8 1 in 20 peak day LNG requirement with GPG demand, 2010-2014 (TJ/d)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
rate at Iona
49 55 57 58 61
36 42 45 46 49

5.3.7 Winter period Liquefied Natural Gas requirement
At the start of each winter, LNG storage is normally 626 TJ (11,400 tonnes). Considering a normal
refill rate each month, 600-700 TJ
22
represents a high-level gauge of whether there will be sufficient

22
This range assumes that LNG storage is at full capacity at the beginning of winter.

LNG supplies for winter. An LNG requirement in excess of this level in any given year means that
there is a possibility that storage may be insufficient if refill rates remain the same.
LNG enables a rapid response to changing demand due to its variable injection rate and its
proximity to the Dandenong City Gate (a critical system pressure point). As a result, GPG demand
significantly influences LNG use, as GPG withdrawals represent a much greater volume over a
shorter timeframe than industrial or residential loads. To avoid drops in linepack and pipeline
pressure, this demand requires a faster response from supply sources, which is achieved with the
vaporisation and injection of LNG.
Table 5-9 lists the forecast LNG requirement for the winter peak period, with injections at Iona at a
flat rate.
Table 5-10 lists the forecast LNG requirement for the winter peak period, with injections at Iona at a
profiled rate. These figures are presented as a theoretical exercise and make no allowance for
limitations to profiling that may result from other peak day condition considerations.
The analysis presented in the tables incorporates:
three GPG forecast scenarios
the profiling of existing open cycle gas turbine (OCGT) gas demand using actual winter GPG
demand data from 2004, 2006 and 2007, and
the assumption that the combined cycle gas turbine/s (CCGT) will be running at full capacity
during winter.
The results demonstrate that the use of profiled injection rates at Iona will enable a substantially
reduced winter LNG requirement. This is because:
the BLP pipeline effectively increases system capacity and linepack, and
profiled injection rates at Iona provide supply flexibility similar to that provided by LNG. Iona is
also situated near the Brooklyn City Gate, which also enables access to key system pressure
points.
Under the high GPG demand scenario, major augmentation could be required for 2013 for the flat
injection case and 2014 for the profiled injection case.


Table 5-9 Winter period LNG requirement, flat injection rate, 2010-2014 (TJ/winter)
Low GPG demand

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
19 in 20 winter (95% POE)
0 0 0 0 0
30 29 28 32 31
115 115 115 131 132
Medium GPG demand

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0 0 1 7 18
62 72 97 141 190
187 194 258 331 423
High GPG demand

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10 21 52 108 175
160 212 317 461 645
366 454 664 897 1162

Table 5-10 Winter period LNG requirement, profiled injection rate, 2010-2014 (TJ/winter)
Low GPG demand

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0 0 0 0 0
9 8 8 11 12
85 85 85 90 93
Medium GPG demand

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0 0 0 0 0
31 36 54 88 130
139 152 198 266 343
High GPG demand

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0 0 20 53 110
104 150 247 361 523
295 381 555 766 1040

Historical Liquefied Natural Gas use
Winter LNG use over the last nine years (2001-2009) averaged 152 TJ. LNG use in 2007 increased
significantly as a result of the increase in GPG demand, which was driven by market conditions and
the reduced availability of generation due to drought. The dramatic reduction in LNG use in 2008
and 2009 was mainly due to commissioning of the BLP pipeline in 2008.
Table 5-11 lists the winter LNG use for the last nine years.
Table 5-11 Historical winter LNG use

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
TJ 29 217 175 199 88 270 321 45 26
Tonnes 525 3,974 3,206 3,631 1,615 4,918 5,827 823 471

Occasional supply outages (approximately every three years) may require significant extra LNG
vaporisation of 1,000-2,000 tonnes. See Chapter 4 for the demand forecasts for the forecast period.
5.3.8 Liquefied Natural Gas system security reserves
Previously AEMO held 1,500 tonnes (83 TJ) of LNG allocation and stock in reserve. As of 1
February 2010, this holding was reduced to zero. AEMO has the right, however, to obtain a security
reserve if conditions change.




AEMO 2010 125 Chapter 6 - Fuel Supply
Chapter 6 Fuel Supply
The National Electricity Market (NEM) relies on coal for around 85% of its power generation, with
another 8% supplied by gas, and the remainder supplied by hydro, wind, and liquid fuels.
While gas powered generations (GPG) contribution to the NEM is relatively small, it has grown at an
annual average rate of 13.9% over the last five years, and consumes nearly 30% of total gas
production.
Victorian generation is mostly fuelled by brown coal, supplemented by hydro and gas-fired peaking
generation, with liquid fuels playing only a relatively minor role due to their higher costs, and only
used by two power generators as back-up fuel.
There is an abundant brown coal reserve exclusively used for power generation.
Victoria is also the largest gas-consuming State on the east coast. In 2009, however, only 10% of
that consumption was used for power generation. Gas use in Victoria has been growing at an
average rate of 1.6% per annum over the last five years and mostly consists of manufacturing and
residential use.
This chapter will present a brief overview of the fuel mixes on the east coast of Australia, focussing
on the Victorian stationary energy sector.
In this Chapter:
Section 6.1 presents a breakdown of Victorian fuel usage for electricity generation.
Section 6.2 discusses the sources and use of gas as fuel in Victoria.
Section 6.3 discusses the use of coal as fuel in Victoria.
Section 6.4 presents information about the use of different liquid fuel types.
Section 6.5 discusses fuel prices and impacts.
The information in this chapter has been based on a report received by AEMO from EnergyQuest
titled Fuel Supplies in the National Electricity Market Report for the Australian Energy Market
Operator.
6.1 Historical fuel usage for electricity generation
Brown coal is the fuel source for 90% of Victorias electricity generation. The brown coal power
stations provide base-load requirements and are in general unsuitable to respond to sudden
changes in demand. Generation from fuels like gas and hydro provide the extra capacity to respond
to peak demand periods.
Figure 6-1 shows the relative percentage of total generation in 2008/09 by fuel source. It shows that
coal is the dominant fuel source for Victorias electricity generation.

Figure 6-1 Victorian Electricity Generation by Fuel Source (2008-09)

Source: AEMO, 2010

6.2 Gas fuel usage in Victoria
The east coast of Australia has six major gas producing basins:
The Surat and Bowen basins west of Brisbane produce growing volumes of coal seam gas (CSG)
as well as some conventional gas.
The Cooper Basin in the north-east of South Australia and the south-west of Queensland
produces conventional gas.
The offshore Gippsland, Otway and Bass basins in the south of Victoria produce conventional
gas.
The pattern of gas production is changing, with falling production from the Cooper Basin, growing
Queensland CSG production, and significant production from the offshore Otway and Bass basins in
Victoria. New South Wales and South Australia both rely on Victoria for around half their gas
demand and Queensland is now exporting CSG to the southern States.
Eastern Australia has just over 100,000 PJ of gas reserves and resources (3P plus 2C,
23
or 160
times current production. CSG comprises 75% of 2P reserves and nearly 80% of total gas reserves
and resources. There are also substantial reserves and resources off the Victorian coast, with the
Gippsland, Otway and Bass basins amounting to 10,800 PJ or 30 times current Victorian production.
The Gippsland Basin is currently the largest gas-production basin on the east coast. Gas production
comes primarily from fields developed by the ExxonMobil/BHP-Billiton Gippsland Basin Joint venture
(GBJV), which is linked into the Longford-Dandenong Pipeline and the Victorian gas Declared
Transmission System (gas DTS), the Eastern Gas Pipeline to Sydney (fully contracted and being

23
These are estimated quantities that have a chance of being discovered under favourable conditions (3P) and estimated to be potentially
recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable (2C).
COAL
GAS
WATER
WIND
GASDIST

expanded), and the Tasmanian Gas Pipeline. GBJV gas production was down 14% in 2009
compared to 2008. This fall appears to have been due to Otway and Bass production substituting for
Gippsland production (in other words, an increase in market share of non-Gippsland sources of gas).
Further development of GPG in the LaTrobe valley, however, will lead to an increase in Gippsland
gas utilisation.
The Otway Basin has three offshore fields producing gas (Minerva, Casino-Henry and Geographe-
Thylacine), and three gas plants (Iona, Otway and Minerva), which are linked into the SEA Gas
Pipeline to South Australia (fully contracted) and the South West Pipeline feeding into the Victorian
gas DTS. Production has increased with the development of the Thylacine and, more recently,
Henry fields. Current reserves are largely contracted to third parties for their own use.
Gas from Yolla, the Bass Basins one producing gas field, is processed through the Lang Lang plant
in Eastern Victoria and currently contracted to Origin Energy.
Figure 6-2 shows gas usage for GPG in the NEM.
Figure 6-2 Victorian GPG gas usage relative to the NEM (20042009)

Source: EnergyQuest
While Victoria is the largest gas consumer on the east coast, using 216 PJ in 2009, it is a relatively
small user of gas for GPG, consuming 20.1 PJ in 2009. Gas use for GPG peaked at 38.3 PJ in 2007
due to the drought, but this has since fallen. The major uses of gas are for manufacturing and
residential demand.
Victoria has substantial gas reserves and resources, sufficient to supply the largest gas market on
the east coast and export gas to New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania. In the absence
of substantial new discoveries, however, and in the context of rising industry costs for offshore
development, costs are expected to increase in real terms over the long term, and higher prices may
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
P
J
Tas
SA
Qld
Vic
NSW

make it possible to commercialise tight onshore gas (natural gas which is difficult to access because
of the nature of the rock and sand surrounding the deposit).
6.3 Coal fuel usage in Victoria
Australia has abundant black and brown coal resources in Queensland and New South Wales, and
Victoria, respectively. The economic coal resource is 39 times the size of the economic gas resource
on an equivalent energy basis. Australian coal production is expected to grow at an average rate of
1.8% per annum to 2030, driven by growth in exports averaging 2.4% per annum. Domestic coal
consumption is expected to fall at an average rate of 0.8% per annum, reflecting a fall in its share of
domestic electricity generation.
According to Geoscience Australia and ABARE (2010), Eastern Australia demonstrates economic
coal resources of 70 billion tonnes, or over one million petajoules (PJ), of which Queensland and
New South Wales black coal comprises almost 70%.
Table 6-1 lists a summary of the state of Eastern Australian coal production and resources as at
2009.
Table 6-1 Eastern Australian coal production and resources, 2009

Economic Resources
2008
Coal 2009
State Basin Mt PJ
Heat
Value
MJ/kg
Production
Mt
Exports
Mt
Domestic
Mt
Queensland
Bowen,
Surat,
Galilee
Black
Coal
18,000 419,200 22.0-24.0 190 168 22
New South
Wales
Sydney,
Clarence
Morton
Black
Coal
15,800 356,400 22.9 143 106 37
Victoria Gippsland
Brown
Coal
36,800 356,900 9.7 65 0 65
South
Australia
Leigh
Creek
Black
Coal
26 415 15.8 4 0 4
TOTAL 70,626 1,132,915 402 274 128
Sources: Geoscience Australia and ABARE (2010), (ABARE, 2010)
Historically, only top-quality thermal coal has been exported, with lower-quality coal used for local
generation. Typical specifications for thermal coal from the Newcastle fields are for a heating value
of 28.3 MJ/kg and 15.1% ash compared with 25.0 MJ/kg and 22.0% ash for domestic thermal coal.
Export demand has increased, however, for higher-ash coals for blending with lower-ash Indonesian
coals.
There are substantial reserves of coal from existing sources to meet future power generation needs
(subject to contractual arrangements with mine owners). At current production rates, the east coast

has 100 years of economic black coal reserves and approximately 500 years of economic brown
coal reserves at current levels of consumption.
In Victoria, brown coal is used exclusively for power generation. Due to the high moisture content of
brown coal, however, it cannot be economically exported. Table 6-2 shows Victorian coal
specifications. The coal has high moisture and low heating value. A number of coal seams are
mined by open-cut. In 2008/09, production was 65 million tonnes (Mt) (663 PJ) supplying the five
coal-fired power stations in the Latrobe Valley. HRL Technology is proposing a new 550 MW
demonstration plant in the Latrobe Valley using integrated drying and gasification combined cycle
technology.
Table 6-2 Victorian coal specifications
Moisture % Ash % VM % Sulphur %
Heat Value
MJ/kg
Yallourn Seam Y 65.5 1.7 51.1 0.3 7.1
Morwell Seam M1 60.1 3.3 48.2 0.4 8.8
Yallourn N Extension Seam
M2
51.7 4.4 48.8 0.5 11
Loy Seam M 1B 62.5 1.5 51.3 0.4 8.1
Yang Seam M2 61.0 1.7 50.5 0.4 8.8
Source: EnergyQuest
Table 6-3 lists the five Victorian Latrobe valley power stations and their supply sources, all of which
are privately owned mine-mouth operations with a total generation capacity of 6,299 MW
24
.
Table 6-3 Victorian coal-fired power stations
Power station Operating company Coal field Transport
Year of
commissioning
Total capacity
(MW)
Loy Yang A Loy Yang Power Loy Yang Conveyor 1984-87 2,170
Hazelwood Hazelwood Power Hazelwood Conveyor 1964-71 1,580
Yallourn W TRUEnergy Yallourn Conveyor
1973-75
1981-82
1,420
Loy Yang B International Power Loy Yang Conveyor 1993-96 965
Morwell Energy Brix
Loy Yang
Hazelwood
Conveyor 1958-62 164
Sources: ESAA (2009), Barton, Gloe, & Holdgate (1993) and company websites.
In recent years Hazelwood Power has undertaken its Hazelwood West extension project. Loy Yang
is mining Block 2 of the Loy Yang open cut mine, and will move on to Block 3 by around 2027.
Yallourn is developing the Maryvale field for production from 2011 (requiring the diversion of the
Morwell River). The Victorian Government has identified and implemented measures to protect
future mining areas.

24
Based on 2009 ESOO 2009/10 summer aggregate scheduled generation for Victoria.

6.4 Liquid fuel usage in Victoria
According to the Australian Energy Regulator (2009) approximately 0.1% of power generated in
Australia in 2009 was generated using oil-based petroleum fuels as the primary fuel type
25
.
Generating base load power from liquid fuels is significantly less economic than from gas or coal.
Depending on the prevailing price, however, oil can be and is used economically for generating
power to meet peak demand at times of high NEM prices, or to meet a generators contractual
supply commitments.
The main types of oil-based fuels used for power generation in Australia are diesel, kerosene, and
fuel oil. Most peaking power stations that use liquid fuels use diesel as their primary fuel. Mt Stuart
in Queensland uses kerosene as its primary fuel type. Torrens Island Power Station (TIPS) uses
fuel oil as a back-up. Alternative liquid fuels such as biodiesel, LPG or condensate may be available
in Australia, but are not regarded as mainstream alternatives for power generation.
In Victoria, diesel (or distillate) is used only as a back-up fuel for two principal plants at Newport and
Jeeralang. Newport has large on-site storage connected by pipeline to the nearby Newport import
fuel terminal. Jeeralang relies on the delivery of diesel by road tanker from the Melbourne and
Hastings fuel terminals. TRUenergy advises that Jeeralang can operate continuously for only eight
to twelve hours in extreme circumstances.
Diesel, kerosene and fuel oil costs generally track the price of crude oil. The indicative cost of fuel
oil delivered to Torrens Island in South Australia in mid-February 2010, with oil prices around USD75
per bbl (USD/AUD exchange rate of 0.91) would have been around AUD804 per tonne or
AUD18.78/GJ.
The indicative cost of supplying diesel or kerosene to other generators in South Australia, Victoria,
New South Wales and Queensland in mid-February 2010 varied between AUD760 and AUD800 per
tonne or AUD 16.5 to AUD 17.5/GJ.
Biodiesel is not currently seen as a reliable substitute for diesel for power generation in Australia,
mainly due to limited reliable suppliers and concerns over quality and fuel stability.
6.5 Fuel prices
Relative fuel costs are an important determinant of fuel use. Figure 6-3 shows international fuel
prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, a US oil price benchmark, liquid natural gas (LNG)
imported into Japan, US Henry Hub gas, and thermal coal imported into Japan, all expressed in
USD per gigajoule (GJ) to standardise energy units.
Internationally, on an energy basis oil is the most expensive fuel (and WTI is crude oil, rather than
the more expensive refined product) and coal is the cheapest. Gas imported into north Asia as LNG
is indexed to oil prices and is relatively expensive.

25
EnergyQuest

US gas prices, a global gas price benchmark, fell heavily in 2009 due to the recession and the
increase in US gas production.
Figure 6-3 International fuel prices

Sources: EnergyQuest, 2010
Coal
Coal and gas for NEM power generation are below international prices. Coal costs vary, depending
on the type of coal, its quality, location in relation to the power station, and the nature of the contract.
In many cases, coal deposits are owned by the generator, making it difficult to estimate costs. In
cases where coal is purchased from third parties, prices are generally confidential. Coal, however, is
generally the cheapest fuel source, ranging from below AUD0.50 per GJ in Victoria to between
AUD1.00 and AUD2.00/GJ in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia.
In comparison, spot prices for export of coal from Newcastle as at February 2010 were USD93.25
per tonne or around AUD3.90/GJ. Exports of thermal coal are sold both under long-term contracts
(around 70%) and on a spot basis (around 30%).
Gas
There continues to be a disparity between domestic gas prices and export prices. Although the long-
term outlook may be for higher gas prices in real terms, spot prices are currently below contract
prices. This situation reflects the economic downturn and increase in gas supply in both Queensland
and Victoria.
Figure 6- 4 shows the international and Australian gas prices in AUD/GJ for the 2009 December
quarter. The international figures include the UK system average price (SAP), the US Henry Hub
spot gas price, the average export price for gas (predominantly pipeline gas) from Russia, and the
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
U
S

d
o
l
l
a
r
s

p
e
r

G
J
WTI oil
LNG Japan
US gas
Thermal coal Japan

average landed import prices (shown in green boxes) for LNG into Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China.
The arrows show the highest average price of imports into each country in the December quarter.
The figure also shows the average price for Australian LNG exports in the December quarter
compared with domestic gas prices (ex-field). International prices continue to be higher than
Australian domestic prices, giving rise to concerns that east coast gas prices may ultimately rise to
international levels.
Figure 6- 4 International gas prices

Source: EnergyQuest, 2010
Figure 6-5 shows the Victorian average daily spot price for gas. There are more occurrences of low
prices in 2008/09, and an increase in price variability. The low prices may be due to the introduction
of the BLP pipeline, which increased the capability to transport more gas from Iona, potentially
encouraging competition between Iona and the Longford gas plant. Price variability is likely to have
been caused by market bidding behaviour.

Figure 6-5 Victorian average daily spot price for gas AUD/GJ

Source: AEMO, 2010

$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
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AEMO 2010 135 Chapter 7 Supply, Demand and Transmission Capacity
Chapter 7 Supply, Demand and Transmission
Capacity
This chapter presents regional supply-demand balance information for the Victorian electricity
Declared Shared Network (electricity DSN) for the year 2009/10, and Victorian gas Distributed
Shared Network (gas DTS) capacity forecasts for the forecast period (2010-2014). The gas
projections include forecasts for the demand-supply-capacity outlook and peak day gas DTS
capacity.
Electricity
In terms of the electricity DSN, this chapter aims to assist existing and potential transmission
network users to understand:
which regions the are net users and net generators of electrical energy
what requirements enable the transmission system to transfer power between regions at times of
peak demand, and
whether the location of a new major load or generation is likely to change these requirements.
Gas
In terms of the gas DTS, this chapter aims to assist existing and potential transmission network
users to understand the:
capacity of the main pipelines to transfer gas to major demand centres, and
extent to which the forecasts of deliverable gas supplies meet forecast demand.
In this chapter:
Section 7.1 provides high-level information about electricity and gas interactions relevant to
electricity DSN and gas DTS capabilities.
Section 7.2 presents an overview of the active and reactive supply-demand balance for the
forecast 2009/10 electricity summer maximum demand (MD).
Section 7.3 presents information about the gas peak day demand-supply-capacity outlook for the
gas DTS as a whole and specific pipeline injections and withdrawals, and the contributing factors
to normal pipeline operating boundaries for each main gas DTS pipeline.
Section 7.4 discusses gas transmission system capacity for gas powered generation (GPG).
Section 7.5 presents information about spare gas DTS capacity for specific purposes and major
loads.
7.1 Transmission capacity synergies
This section highlights transmission capacity synergies relevant to the 2010 VAPR and the
relationship between electricity and gas. When the electricity and gas regional supply-demand
balances and transmission capacities are considered together, a series of broad regional issues, in
terms of the location of new GPG, can be identified.

Table 7-1 Comparative regional issues of electricity and gas
Region Electricity Gas
Eastern
Corridor/Gippsland
Zone
The region is a major energy exporter, which
drives the design of the network limits in this
area. Any significant increase in generation is
therefore likely to necessitate electricity DSN
augmentation
The Longford plant is the largest producer of
gas for the Victorian market. Significant
increases in GPG and system demand may
necessitate the augmentation of the Longford
pipeline
South-West
Corridor/Western
Zone
The electricity DSN in this region is likely to be
able to absorb the connection of new
generation. Electricity DSN augmentation or
generation constraint is likely to be required to
control elevated levels of unbalanced voltages
The deliverable winter peak day firm supplies
available to Melbourne from Iona are limited by
the capacity of the South West Pipeline (SWP).
The Western Transmission System (WTS) is
currently unable to support significant (100 MW
or more) new GPG
Northern
Corridor/Northern
Zone
The region is a net generator as well as a
transporter of energy from New South Wales to
Melbourne during times of high demand.
Significant augmentation may be required to
increase the regions ability to transfer more
energy to Melbourne at these times
Spare pipeline capacity was very limited in 2009
following rapid demand growth in the zone.
Committed augmentation in the zone will
increase pipeline capacity, however additional
compression north of Wollert will be required if
demand in the zone continues to increase
Greater Melbourne
and Geelong/
Melbourne and
Geelong Zone
Any new generation connections are likely to
increase fault levels, which at 220 kV and below
are already close to acceptable limits at many
metropolitan terminal stations. As a result,
augmentation to manage increased fault levels
is likely. Fault levels at 500 kV are not as
problematic
Meeting gas demand in this zone is a primary
driver behind the design of the gas DTS. As a
result, any significant increase in demand, such
as new GPG, is likely to require gas DTS
augmentation
Regional
Victoria/Ballarat
Zone
New generation is likely to meet local demand
in the region, and will reduce the burden on the
electricity DSN. However, given the regions
size and layout, in specific cases the expected
flows on some individual lines may change
radically, leading to constraints. The level of
constraint depends on the location and size of
generation
Increased demand in this zone, which is served
by lateral rather than mains pipelines, will
probably require significant gas DTS
augmentation
Energy market size
In 2010, the stationary energy industry is forecast to supply approximately 408 petajoules (PJ) of
energy to Victoria in the form of electricity (185 PJ or 45% of the total) and natural gas (208 PJ
system demand and 15 PJ GPG totalling 223 PJ or 55% of the total). These figures include both
electricity delivered by GPG and gas used by GPG (15 PJ)
26
.
Gas energy is typically measured in petajoules (PJ), terajoules (TJ), and gigajoules (GJ). Electrical
energy is usually measured in gigawatt-hours (GWh) and megawatt-hours (MWh).
One MWh is equivalent to 3.6 GJ and 1 PJ is approximately equal to 278 GWh.

26
This potentially results in some inherent double counting of energy, given statistics are separately recorded
for gas and electricity.

7.2 Electricity transmission capacity
This section presents a series of breakdowns of supply and demand, which, when considered with
Victorian electricity DSN loading information (see Chapter 3) indicate the transmission networks
adequacy for carrying existing power flows, and how significantly these vary across the network as a
whole.
7.2.1 Active and reactive supply demand balance
Active power supply-demand balance
Table 7-2 shows the combined Victorian and South Australian reserve summer peak demand
conditions forecast for 2009/2010. AEMOs Electricity Statement of Opportunites (ESOO) considers
the Victorian and South Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) regions together, because the:
supply-demand outlook for the two regions depends on the network capability for power flows into
Victoria from New South Wales and Tasmania
Victorian and South Australian interconnectors are unlikely to constrain power flows in or out of
South Australia during high demand weather periods, and
two regions have similar weather patterns.
The forecast 2009/10 supply-demand balance reflects the forecast maximum demand (MD) of
10,346 MW for summer 2009/10, with maximum import available from New South Wales and
Tasmania, and all Victorian generation available to produce at maximum output at the time of the
MD.
Table 7-2 Summer 2009/10 supply-demand balance forecast (MW)
27

Source MW
Supply Victorian generation 9,947
South Australian generation 3,847
Import capability from New South Wales and Tasmania 594
Total combined regional supply 14,388
Demand Victorian forecast demand (10% POE scheduled MD) 10,346
South Australian forecast demand (10% POE scheduled MD) 3,500
Total combined regional demand 13,846
Committed DSP
1
(66)
Reserve Combined Victorian and South Australian reserve 608
1. Committed DSP has been included in region generation (VIC: -54 MW, SA: -12 MW)

27
Source: AEMO 2009 SOO Supply Demand Outlook, August 2009.

Table 7-3 shows the Victorian supply-demand balance forecast for 2010/2011 by region.
Table 7-3 Summer 2009/10 Victorian supply-demand balance
Region Generation
Summer 2009/10
capacity (MW)
Total generation
+ import
% MW
Net
generation
+ import
(MW)
Eastern Corridor Bairnsdale 74 7,662 6,698

Energy Brix
Complex
164
Hazelwood 1,580
Jeeralang A 200
Jeeralang B 216
Loy Yang A 2,170
Loy Yang B 965
Valley Power 270
Yallourn 1420

Wind generation
(Toora, Wonthaggi)
3 (33)
1

Import from Basslink 600
Distribution network service
provider (DNSP) load
3.8% 396
Generator auxiliary load 5.5% 568
South-West Corridor N/A -448 -958

Wind generation
(Codrington and
Portland Stage 1, 2
and 3 Yambuk,
Cape Bridgewater
and Cape Nelson
South)
12 (150)
Import from SA -460
DNSP load 0.0% 2
Major industrial load 4.9% 508
Northern Corridor Bogong 140 2,429 2,306
Clover 26
Dartmouth 0
Eildon 120
Hume (Victoria) 17
McKay Creek 160
West Kiewa 66
Murray 1 and 2 1,310
Import from NSW 590
DNSP load 1.2% 123
Greater Melbourne and
Geelong
Anglesea 158 1,075 -5,993
Laverton North 310
Newport 475
Somerton 132
DNSP load 64.5% 6,671

Region Generation
Summer 2009/10
capacity (MW)
Total generation
+ import
% MW
Net
generation
+ import
(MW)
Major industrial load 3.5% 357
Generator auxiliary load 0.4% 40
Regional Victoria N/A -80 -1,331

Wind generation
(Challicum Hills,
Waubra)
20 (245)

Import from
Murraylink
-100
DNSP load 12.1% 1,251
Transmission losses
2
4.2% 430
Total generation and import
3

10,638
Total demand (load +
losses)
100% 10,346
1. This represents wind generation with 8% load factor of installed capacity and the values within the brackets show the
installed capacities
2. Includes losses in transformers at the point of connection and in sub-transmission lines that connect terminal stations
3. In this supply/demand balance calculation, export from Victoria to South Australia is set at 560 MW
Reactive power supply-demand balance and Victorian maximum supportable demand
Irrespective of thermal limitations, Victorias maximum supportable demand (as defined by reactive
power and voltage constraints for summer 2008/09) was 10,800 MW and is constrained by a voltage
control/level limitation. The maximum supportable demand has not been reassessed for summer
2009/10. With the inclusion of Bogong Power Station the 2009/10 maximum supportable will have
marginally increased from 2008/09 maximum supportable demand of 10,800 MW published in the
2009 VAPR.
This is an amount that can be supported with all plant in service, and that allows for any credible
contingency event.
Factors that determine the level of maximum supportable demand include:
operating the system within acceptable voltage profiles and reactive reserve margins, both before
and after a critical contingency
maintaining voltage stability after any single credible contingency
maintaining the reactive output of all existing generation within capability requirements of the
National Electricity Rules (NER), and
optimising the reactive output of all generation to maximise the overall network capability.
To ensure acceptable post contingency voltages and reserve margins, actual system demand is not
allowed to exceed supportable MD.

Table 7-4 lists Victorias reactive supply-demand balance for summer 2009/10 at a forecast 10,346
MW
28
(summer 2009/10 MD was 10,305 MW) for system normal conditions with all generation and
transmission elements in service.
Table 7-4 Reactive supply-demand balance at 10,346 MW (system normal)
Reactive supply MVAr Reactive demand MVAr
Generation 1,715 Loads 3,669
SVCs and sync cons -144 Line reactors 201
Line charging 2,863 Line losses 5,873
Shunt capacitors 5,281 Inter-regional transfer 138
Series capacitors 166 - -
Total 9,881 Total 9,881

Table 7-5 lists the system reactive supply-demand balance following the most critical outage, which
is the loss of the 500 MW Newport Power Station. The modelling of this critical outage assumes
frequency control from New South Wales and Victorian generation.
As a result of the outage, the:
import from New South Wales increases from 680 MW to 1,180 MW, causing an increase in
active and reactive transmission power losses
amount of reactive supply in Greater Melbourne and Geelong decreases, and
increased requirement for reactive supply is met by the remaining generation, synchronous
condensers, static VAr compensators (SVC), and series capacitors.
Table 7-5 Reactive supply-demand balance at 10,346 MW (following loss of Newport)
Reactive supply (MVAr) Reactive demand (MVAr) (MVAr)
Generation 2,848 Loads 3,669
SVCs and sync cons -21 Line reactors 183
Line charging 2,693 Line losses 6,749
Shunt capacitors 4,899 Inter-regional transfer 135
Series capacitors 317
Total 10,736 Total 10,736

28
See the 2009 VAPR, Chapter 3, Demand Forecasts, Section 3.1.1.

7.3 Gas transmission capacity
This section presents forecasts of peak day gas DTS capacity and the demand-supply-capacity
outlook for the forecast period (2010-2014).
7.3.1 Peak day demand-supply-capacity forecasts
Under ideal weather conditions the deliverable supply from all system injection points is 1,316 TJ/d,
comprising 1,030 TJ/d via the Longford to Melbourne pipeline and 286 TJ/d via the South West
Pipeline (SWP). Including LNG, the total deliverable gas supply will be 1,376 TJ/d.
The non-winter peak day demand-supply-capacity assumptions account for different operating
modes due to increased exports, plant maintenance, and the seasonality of firm supply.
Figure 7-6 provides an overview of the forecast peak day demand, supply, and transmission system
capacity for the gas DTS. It also summarises the deliverable winter peak day firm supplies (as
limited by pipeline capacity) and LNG (assumed to be a maximum deliverable of 60 TJ/d for within-
day balancing), against the forecast 1 in 20 peak day demand, as well as showing firm supply from
Iona, which is constrained by the existing pipeline capacity.
The capacity of the gas DTS limits Melbournes access to gas supply from Iona and the
Underground Gas Storage (UGS), even with the BLP pipeline, leading to a continued reliance on
supply from Longford.
Figure 7-6 - Peak day demand, supply, and transmission system capacity forecast, 2010-2014
(TJ/d)

7.3.2 Peak day transmission system capacity by pipeline
AEMOs modelling identified the following maximum peak day injections or pipeline operating
boundaries:
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
T
J
/
d
Constrained firm and
non-firm
LNG
Iona deliverable firm
Longford deliverable
firm
Demand (1 in 20 )

1,030 TJ/d at Longford (Exxon-Mobil and VicHub) and Pakenham (BassGas), via the Longford to
Melbourne pipeline
315 TJ/d at Iona (Iona gas plant and UGS, and SEA Gas), via the South West Pipeline (SWP),
however, the SWP can transport up to 347 TJ/d under favourable linepack conditions
92 TJ/d approximately at Culcairn (Moomba gas field/Culcairn imports) via the New South Wales
interconnect
29
, and
28 TJ/d at Iona, via the Western Transmission System (WTS).
The modelling scenarios assume that injections are available to meet peak demand. The scenarios
also assume 60 TJ/d of LNG injection is available for within-day balancing, and will be required
depending on the severity of the peak day profile and the beginning-of-day linepack conditions.
7.3.3 Longford to Melbourne pipeline
Figure 7-7 provides a comparison of the available supply from Longford, VicHub and BassGas
against the available Longford to Melbourne pipeline capacity.
The maximum available plant capacity at Longford is 1,150 TJ/d but the combined supply from
Longford, VicHub and BassGas is constrained to 1,030 TJ/d due to back-off effects on the Longford
to Melbourne pipeline when pipeline capacity has been reached. While pipeline capacity remains
constant for the forecast period, contracted supplies from the participants at Longford are
decreasing. In 2010 and 2011, the 1,030 TJ/d limit from Longford to Melbourne is lower than the
reported total contracted gas. It is understood that negotiations are proceeding on contracting
additional Longford supply.
The quantity of gas that can be made available at Longford for injection into the gas DTS is higher
than the pipeline capacity, indicating a potential to augment the Longford pipeline.

29
This figure represents the potential pipeline capacity only supplies from the Culcairn injection point include 35 TJ/d firm
and 15 TJ/d non-firm for the forecast period.

Figure 7-7 - Total Longford, VicHub, and BassGas peak day supply and capacity forecast,
2010-2014 (TJ/d)

South West Pipeline
Figure 7-8 provides a comparison of the available supply from Iona and SEA Gas (including Otway)
against the available SWP pipeline capacity. The figure indicates that pipeline capacity is the
overriding constraint for suppliers injecting via the Iona and SEA Gas injection points, with the
combined Iona and SEA Gas supplies being significantly larger than the pipelines capacity.
Pipeline capacity currently constrains supply to 315 TJ/d due to normal winter beginning-of-day
SWP operating pressures. The currently declared SWP capacity is 347 TJ/d which reflects system
limitations at the time of the previous assessment. Previous modelling suggests that the SWP can
achieve higher capacities. See Chapter 3, Section 3.7.2, for more information. AEMO is currently
reviewing the declared capacity of the SWP.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Longford Non-firm
Longford Firm
Pipeline capacity

Figure 7-8 Total Iona and SEA Gas peak day supply and capacity forecast, 2010-2014 (TJ/d)

Increasing quantities of gas sourced from the Minerva and Thylacine fields are also likely to be
offered into the gas market via the SEA Gas interconnect, resulting in competition with the UGS
facility for limited SWP pipeline capacity.
The Otway plant is not connected to the gas DTS and therefore injections/withdrawals pass through
the SEA Gas connection point. Total SEA Gas and Otway injections are limited to 200 TJ/d and
withdrawals to 135 TJ/d based on the current SEA Gas connection agreement.
New South Wales interconnect
The New South Wales interconnect pipeline capacity for import is 92 TJ/d. Participants advise that
there are 35 TJ/d firm and 15 TJ/d non-firm supplies from New South Wales for the forecast period.
Gas offered into the Victorian market may be limited:
when New South Wales and Victoria experience high demand at the same time, or
subject to operating conditions and/or contractual arrangements on the Moomba-Sydney
pipeline
30
.
Western Transmission System
The WTS pipeline capacity is 28 TJ/d. This pipeline is currently supplied exclusively from Iona, for
supply to the Western Zone.

30
Peaking GPG at Uranquinty, near Wagga Wagga, can result in exports of 70 TJ/d in summer and 35 TJ/d in
winter, affecting this pipelines current operating conditions. AEMO has been advised by APA Group that they
will complete augmentation of the compressor stations at Wollert and Springhurst.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Iona Non-firm
Iona Firm
Pipeline Capacity

7.4 Gas transmission system capacity for gas powered
generation
7.4.1 Spare transmission system capacity for gas powered generation
Depending on system demand and operating conditions on the day, planned or unplanned GPG can
rapidly deplete linepack, potentially risking system security. The potential maximum hourly quantity
(MHQ) of GPG can be very high relative to the hourly demand from all other industrial and
commercial gas customers.
The approximate capacity of the gas DTS to support GPG demand for a typical 1 in 2 day is
130 TJ/d, decreasing to 30 TJ/d under 1 in 20 conditions. These figures are only approximations as
system conditions and demand profiles vary from day-to-day.
Figure 7-9 shows a series of typical GPG demand profiles.
Figure 7-9 Possible profiles of GPG demand for various levels of system demand (TJ/h)

Spare summer capacity has been modelled to determine gas availability for GPG. Table 7-10 lists
the modelled spare capacities for summer GPG, showing:
modelled spare capacity available at various gas DTS locations, expressed as a maximum daily
quantity (MDQ) and corresponding maximum hourly quantity (MHQ) of demand fitting the test
profile for a theoretical new load, and
indicative pressures at each location. Some pressures rely on compressor operations, and result
from one or both Brooklyn Compressor Station compressors (2,850 kW Unit 11 or 3,500 kW Unit
12) being in use for GPG demand at Laverton North and at Golden Plains (near Geelong).
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00
D
e
m
a
n
d

(
T
J
/
h
)
1000 TJ
1100 TJ
1200 TJ

Table 7-10 Spare transmission system capacity for summer GPG
Zone Location
MDQ
(TJ)
MHQ (TJ)
Typical Minimum
Pressure (kPa)
Gippsland
Latrobe Valley 150 19.9 4,200
Pakenham 130 17.2 3,500
South Morang 125 16.6 3,500
Melbourne and Geelong Golden Plains (2C)
1
24 3 4,000
Northern
Shepparton/Echuca 10 1.3 2,500
Bendigo 22 2.9 3,200
1. 2C refers to two Brooklyn compressors (Unit 11 and Unit 12)

These capacities apply to the relevant zones. Capacity taken up at any location within a zone will
reduce capacity at other locations within the same and interrelated zones in direct proportion.
The results for Golden Plains assume no withdrawals at Iona, which would reduce spare capacity for
GPG at this site on a one-for-one basis (approximately).
Most capacity is available on the 750 mm pipeline from Longford to Dandenong and from Pakenham
to Wollert, whereas capacity is very limited for GPG peaking plants in the northern and central parts
of the gas DTS.
The summer GPG cases:
are modelled for a late summer day representing system demand of 500 TJ
assume no injections to or withdrawals from either Culcairn or Iona, and
assume all existing GPG plant is operating.
Based on actual sample data, total existing GPG demand is assumed to be 220 TJ/d. Newport
demand is 83 TJ/d, Jeeralang is 45 TJ/d, Valley Power is 29 TJ/d, Somerton is 13 TJ/d, and
Laverton North is 50 TJ/d.
The profile used for GPG test loads is based on the Jeeralang GPG peaking plant on a very hot day.
The gas DTS supplied up to 335 TJ/d to GPG demand during the heat wave in late January 2009
when system demand was 370 TJ/d.
7.5 Potential spare gas transmission system capacity due
to augmentation
Demand from GPG substantially increased in 2007, with average weekday consumption of
approximately 170 TJ. Meeting possibly significant future GPG demand during simultaneous periods
of high system demand, however, will require gas DTS augmentation.
The Longford pipeline has four unduplicated sections between Tyers (line valve 4) and Bunyip (line
valve 8). Duplication of all of these sections (by inserting four loops) will increase the capacity of the

Longford pipeline. The capacity increases resulting from each of the individual loop augmentations
will vary depending on the order in which they are carried out.
Potential augmentations to increase the capacity of the SWP include installing compressors,
pipeline duplication, and construction of the Rockbank to Wollert pipeline. The resulting capacity
increases from each (or a combination) of these augmentations, will vary.

AEMO 2010 149 Chapter 8 Planning Overview
Chapter 8 Planning Overview
This chapter presents information about the inputs involved in planning for Victorias electricity
Declared Shared Network (electricity DSN) and the Gas Declared Transmission System (gas DTS).
In this chapter:
Section 8.1 provides high-level information about electricity and gas interactions relevant to the
electricity and gas planning role.
Section 8.2 presents information about AEMOs electricity planning criteria, and the five and ten-
year planning process.
Section 8.3 discusses AEMOs gas planning criteria, and the 5-year and 10-year planning
process.
Section 8.4 provides information about the supply scenarios created to enable a study of the
electricity DSN over the next 10 years.
Section 8.5 presents information about gas planning criteria, gas scenario planning and scenario
development.
Section 8.6 presents information about gas and electricity scenario overlaps.
Victorias energy transmission infrastructure framework
Victorias transmission network combines a series of basic, large-scale infrastructure elements (see
Chapter 3 for more information). Factors tending to preserve this infrastructure framework, ensuring
that the existing Victorian infrastructure will remain relevant in the long term, include the following:
The location of major long-term fuel sources.
New investment in Victorias (relatively mature) energy industry typically only represents a few
percent of the industrys total asset value in any year.
Existing infrastructure assets have a particularly long service life (typically several decades), and
future demand growth is relatively low.
New easements and sites are difficult to obtain, meaning that infrastructure topology changes
tend to be relatively small.
Greater Melbourne and Geelong continues to be dominant as the primary demand centre.
As a result of these factors, the likelihood is that future infrastructure development will evolve in the
short to medium term using existing assets (especially sites and easements), rather than requiring
significant changes.
8.1 Planning synergies
The different planning roles and approaches
In the electricity market, AEMO is responsible for planning and directing augmentations to Victorias
high voltage electricity DSN. In the gas market, AEMO is required to provide planning information
and recommendations to the gas industry but it is not AEMOs role to act on the information it
provides.

In planning the electricity DSN, AEMOs investment decisions are based on a cost-benefit analysis
of energy at risk, which includes consideration of the probability-weighted impacts on supply
reliability of unlikely, high-cost events such as:
single and multiple outages of transmission elements, and
unexpectedly high levels of demand.
This approach provides a sound actuarial estimate of the expected value of energy at risk, and aims
to ensure that an economic balance is struck between the costs of:
providing sufficient network capacity to remove all possible constraints, and
some exposure to load levels that exceed the transmission networks capability for a few hours
(at most) each year.
In short, while recognising that extreme loading conditions may occur, it may be uneconomic to
provide the additional electricity DSN capacity required to prevent load shedding.
In contrast, AEMO bases the identification of the potential gas Declared Transmission System (DTS)
augmentations on criteria involving the capability of the gas DTS to meet demand on a 1 in 20 winter
peak day
31
(a peak day demand forecast for defined severe weather conditions and operating
conditions that are expected to be exceeded, on average, once every 20 years).
The 1 in 20 winter peak day planning standard acts as the trigger for a more detailed assessment of
a potential gas transmission network constraint (identified as part of an annual planning report).
Following the identification of a potential constraint, AEMO informs the market (but cannot impose
an obligation to act) by:
identifying a range of options to address the constraint
determining the option that best meets the National Gas Rules (NGR) Economic Value test
32
,
and
publishing a major system augmentation report.
Gas and electricity planning interactions
The economics and accessibility of new fuel sources is a significant variable shaping infrastructure
investment over the next 25 years. While brown coal reserves are sufficient to supply Victorias
electricity needs for approximately 500 years at current rates of consumption, the same may not be
true of gas reserves. However, brown coals long-term viability is similarly uncertain due to
Australian Government carbon policies, and it is not yet clear how successful clean coal technology
will be in terms of delivering an economic solution (or when this may happen). See Chapter 6 for
more information about Victorian fuel supplies.
As a result, and in parallel with the rapidly increasing impact of renewable technologies, gas
powered generation (GPG) may dominate the medium-term development of both the electricity and
gas transmission networks. If this occurs, it is likely that GPG plant will be located close to fuel
sources or electricity demand centres, and (due to inter-regional trading risk) in the same market
region as the load being served. Similarly, the specific location of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

31
The gas planning criteria also consider 25 TJ/d of demand from existing GPG.
32
Rule 79(2)(a) of NGR also allows for the detailed consideration of constraints on lateral parts of the gas DTS.

shipping terminals (if they become a local gas industry feature) may also influence gas transmission
network topologies.
In order to consider the range of electricity and gas transmission network requirements that may
arise, a number of different planning scenarios have been developed. These scenarios:
are not predictions or long-term estimates
lie within the bounds of reasonable possibility, and
have been designed purely to capture the limits of the infrastructure development that may be
required for a 10-year outlook.
Other scenarios that do not push the boundaries of infrastructure development have not been
included.
8.2 Electricity planning
AEMOs planning role
AEMO is responsible for independently planning and directing the augmentation of Victorias
electricity DSN. In performing this role, AEMO:
undertakes its responsibility in accordance with its licence obligations, the National Electricity Law
(NEL), National Electricity Rules (NER), and the Victorian Electricity System Code, and
assesses the feasibility of transmission projects using the Regulatory Investment Test for
Transmission (RIT-T) and the Regulatory Test, as specified by the Australian Energy Regulator
(AER).
It is AEMOs policy that electricity DSN
33
augmentations generally proceed with the option with the
highest net economic benefit out of a range of other options. This does not apply where an
augmentation is funded by a third party.
AEMOs planning criteria
In accordance with RIT-T
34
requirements, AEMO considers the benefits associated with
transmission investment as accruing from, among other things:
expected unserved energy (USE) reductions
total National Electricity Market (NEM) generation fuel cost reductions
transmission loss reductions
plant capital cost deferrals, and
ancillary service cost reductions.

33
AEMO considers non-network options in addition to network options when assessing responses to
identified needs.
34
The RIT-T is to be in place as of 1 August 2010, in line with the Rule change introducing it on 1
July 2009. Previously, the Regulatory Test was used to assess all electricity network investments.

These benefits are then balanced against the cost of that investment. See Section 8.3 for more
information about AEMOs planning criteria.
In establishing development investment options for each Victorian region for the next 10 years (the
forecast period), AEMO takes two distinct approaches that involve a 5-year outlook and a 10-year
outlook.
Five-year outlook
AEMO performs a detailed cost-benefit analysis for each region for the forecast periods first five
years (years 15), based on a simulation that uses extrapolated NEM dispatch data and demand
forecasts published in the 2009 VAPR to determine probable electricity DSN usage.
Forecast flow conditions are then compared with critical plant capabilities, enabling quantification of
the possible exposure to USE.
Due to the relatively high degree of confidence short-term planning provides, possible augmentation
timings can be confidently supplied. This is appropriate, given the potential lead times required for
major augmentation works.
See Section 8.3 for more information about the 5-year outlook analysis.
Ten-year outlook
AEMO performs a scenario analysis for each region for the forecast periods final year (year 10),
based on the forecast level of demand. This is necessary, given the range of possible sites for the
new generation required to meet anticipated increases in demand. Five possible (mutually
exclusive) supply scenarios, describe the plausible range of outcomes from future generation
patterns.
The analysis of these scenarios overlays an indicative cost-benefit assessment of constraints that
incorporates a deterministic and limited cost-benefit analysis. Due to the lower degree of confidence
attached to this period, however, possible augmentation timings are indicative only.
See Section 8.4 for more information about the possible supply scenarios and the 10-year outlook
analysis.
8.3 Planning for the 5-year outlook
Planning criteria
AEMO plans and develops the Victorian electricity DSN to ensure that it operates within system
security and system performance obligations.
In developing its planning approach for Victoria, AEMO aims to:
ensure that system security and performance obligations can be fulfilled in the most economic
way, and
plan the network with the optimal level of redundancy for particular circumstances.
To achieve this, AEMO assesses potential network developments by:

weighing up individual development costs against the potential system benefits (benefits often
being related to ensuring compliance with obligations such as generation re-dispatch or load
shedding), and
predicting the actions required to meet statutory obligations, by application of probabilistic
planning techniques to determine expected benefits.
The Rules require augmentations to be assessed against the RIT-T and the Regulatory Test, as
appropriate. When planning an electricity DSN augmentation under the RIT-T, AEMO compares a
probabilistic assessment
35
of market benefits with the augmentations cost, and augments the
network to deliver the greatest net economic benefit.
Underpinning the cost-benefit analysis is a technical assessment of the current system with and with
out the augmentation, which involves:
a number of yearly demand and generation scenarios, and
simulating future system operator actions, enabling each scenarios compliance with system
performance and security obligations.
Figure 8-1 shows the relationship between the economic and technical analysis underpinning the
RIT-T.
Figure 8-1 AEMOs planning assessments for the RIT-T

AEMOs Planning Criteria is currently being updated to reflect regulatory developments. The existing
planning criterion is currently available on AEMOs website and provides additional information
about the planning of the Victorian electricity DSN
36
.
AEMOs power system technical assessment involves a number of yearly demand and generation
scenarios, and an hour-by-hour simulation of the future system operator actions, enabling each
scenarios compliance with system performance and security obligations.
This assessment examines three power system components, involving a market analysis, a network
analysis, and a system operations analysis.

35
As required under the National Electricity Law, AEMO must apply a probabilistic (as distinct from a
deterministic) approach to determining the benefit of an augmentation to the electricity DSN (section 50F).
36
See http://www.aemo.com.au/planning/criteria.html.
Technical Analysis
Technical assessment of the power
system to reach option considered
in the RIT-T.
Method includes probabilistic
simulations of system operational
actions (e.g. load shedding and
generation re-dispatch) to allow
compliance with the system
performance and security
Economic Analysis
Market benefits test incorporating a
financial/economic assessment to
determine the preferred options.
Guidance on assessment provided
in the NER and the AERs RIT-T
guideline (to be finalised in 2010).

The market analysis produces the demand and generation scenarios, providing hourly demand and
generation dispatch and costs.
The network analysis calculates network loading under the system conditions the market analysis
defines, including reactive power loading, voltage levels, and circuit thermal loadings. Power transfer
limit calculations are based on system performance requirements and compared with network
loadings, enabling a system performance compliance assessment for all probable system
conditions.
The system operations analysis determines operational actions to ensure system security
compliance, and uses network analysis output to determine appropriate actions, such as load
shedding or generation re-dispatch. Probabilities are then applied to these actions, to account for
uncertainties such as demand, generation unavailability, and network contingencies.
The 5-year analysis
AEMOs 5-year outlook is based on a NEM simulation to determine possible electricity transmission
system usage. This simulation:
uses published criteria to determine the value of constraints associated with critical transmission
element loadings
calculates transmission element loading using constraint equations and simulated generation
dispatch and connection point load trace data, and uses simulated hourly temperatures to
calculate transmission element ratings
identifies potential overloads by comparing the calculated transmission element ratings and the
potential loading, and
considers both system normal conditions (all transmission plant in service), and outages of other
transmission elements.
The frequency and extent of potential transmission element overloads are calculated from the
simulation data. Where an overload occurs, operational actions required to remove it are identified,
including electricity DSN re-configuration and generation rescheduling. Load reduction is applied
when these measures are insufficient. The benefit of avoiding these operational actions is calculated
and valued using the Value of Customer Reliability (VCR).
Value of Customer Reliability
The VCR is a measure of the cost of USE that aims to capture the value of energy to users. In
simple terms it represents the cost to consumers of being without electricity, and is an important
input for regulatory test assessments of planned electricity transmission augmentations in Victoria.
Constraint costs are equal to the sum of the generation rescheduling and/or load reduction required
to remove any overloads for the analysis period. The cost of the required operational action, in
instances where the outage of a transmission element or generator is being considered, is weighted
with the probability of the outage occurring (with benchmark and/or historical forced outage rates
assumed).
A survey to determine the VCR for electricity in Victoria was last conducted in 2007. AEMO applies
an index to these survey results between survey periods. This ensures that the VCR value is
updated to reflect current income and economic growth for the various identified sectors of the
economy (Residential, Agricultural, Commercial, and Industrial), enabling the production of a
headline figure reflecting a weighted average.

The index uses data from the Australian National Accounts: State Accounts data series, updated by
the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The data for the 2008/09 year was released on 22
December 2009. The new data has been used to calculate the 2010 VCR numbers for Victoria.
Table 8-1 summarises the 2010 VCR results.
Table 8-1 VCR value for Victorian electricity
Sector Value (per MWh)
Residential $16,326
Agricultural $134,149
Commercial $114,679
Industrial $45,945
Headline $60,178
Note: all figures are in $2009/10 (Dec $09)

8.4 Electricity scenarios and the 10-year outlook
This section describes the supply scenarios created to enable a study of the electricity DSN in year
10 (see Chapter 7 for the results of this study), and the way they are expected to impact future
generation and power flow patterns.
To model the system for this period of time, it is necessary to take a view about likely generation
patterns in year 10. While demand can be forecast, and a central view taken (such as medium
economic growth), this approach is not appropriate for generation. As the location of new generation
can considerably affect the pattern of power flows and system constraints, a scenario-based
planning approach has been adopted.
8.4.1 National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP) scenarios
To ensure consistency between all AEMO planning documents and studies, a set of five National
Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP) scenarios have been developed. These
scenarios are described in a report to AEMO from consultants MMA titled Future Developments in
the Stationary Energy Sector: Scenarios for the Stationary Energy Sector, 2030. This report is
available on the AEMO web-site with other background information on the 2010 NTNDP.
37

Using the inputs from the NTNDP scenarios, as well as preliminary market modelling results, AEMO
has developed five scenarios specifically for the VAPR 10-year electricity outlook. These scenarios
are designed to capture the limits of transmission infrastructure development that may be required,
describe the potential location and type of new generation within Victoria as well as the potential
changes in Victorian imports and exports.

37
See http://www.aemo.com.au/planning/ntndp2010.html

The VAPR scenarios, which represent trends in the generation mix expected under the NTNDP
scenarios, are not intended to be predications of the state of generation in 10 years, but do lie within
the bounds of reasonable possibility. The VAPR scenarios also account for new electricity and gas
connection enquiries from AEMO.
The NTNDP scenarios were developed with extensive consultation with a Stakeholder Reference
Group (SRG) made up of industry experts with a diverse range of experiences and interests. The
SRG members were invited to participate in a number of surveys, questionnaires and two
workshops to draw out different perspectives, facilitate discussion, and test the robustness of the
scenarios.
Each NTNDP scenario describes the Australian Stationary Energy sector in 2030. These
descriptions then translate to a set of drivers that will impact the Victorian electricity DSN and the
gas DTS, including through regional interchange.
8.4.2 The 10-year development study
The 10-year development study enables the study of the electricity DSN over the next ten years,
and models the Victorian transmission network with a native maximum demand (MD) of 12,777 MW
(summer 10% POE MD).
To meet the demand and power transfer levels between regions, approximately 2,000 MW of
additional new generation will be required in Victoria by 2019/20 (see Table 8-2 for information
about the supply-demand balance used to determine this additional generation).
In all the scenarios, at least 1,000 MW and 1,150 MW of installed wind power capacity (existing and
new) was modelled in the South-West Corridor and Regional Victoria, respectively.
Two of the scenarios modelled up to 4,000 MW of installed wind power capacity (existing and new),
with 2,000 MW in the South-West Corridor and 2,000 MW in Regional Victoria.
It is assumed that at least 8% of installed wind power capacity will be available for the summer MD.

Table 8-2 lists a summary of the supply scenarios used to assess Victorian electricity DSN
requirements. The five mutually exclusive supply scenarios load different parts of the transmission
network to assess the effects of different generator sizes and locations.
Table 8-2 Electricity supply scenarios for the 10-year outlook (MW increases)

Eastern
Corridor
South-West
Corridor
Greater
Melbourne &
Geelong
Regional
Victoria
New
Victoria
Import
from
NSW
Import
from
SA
Total

Fuel MW Fuel MW Fuel MW Fuel MW MW MW MW MW
Scenario 1
Fast rate of
change
Gas 1,400 Wind 80
Gas/
DSP
500 Wind 60 3,240 -1,500 460 2,000
Gas 1,000

(700) (500) (1,200)
Scenario 2
Uncertain
world
Gas 0 Wind 80
Gas/
DSP
0 Wind 60 1,640 1,460 -1,000 2,000
Coal 0 Gas 1,400

Scenario 3
Decentralised
world

Coal -1,800 Wind 160
Gas/
DSP
1,160 Wind 160 2,240 0 0 2,000

Gas 800 Gas 1,000 Gas 300
(Gas DTS v1) (400) (800) Solar 220

(1,200)
(Gas DTS v2) (400) (500) (300) (1,200)
Scenario 4
Oil shock and
adaptation
Coal 800 Wind 160
Gas/
DSP
500 Wind 160 1,920 -720 1,000
2,000
Gas -1,800 Gas 1,900

(Gas DTS) (400) (500) (500)
(1,400)
Scenario 5
Slow rate of
change
Gas 0 Wind 80
Gas/
DSP
100 Wind 60 1,240 0 960

2,000
Gas 800


8.4.3 Scenario 1 - Fast rate of change
Description at 30 years
Successful deployment of both centralised and decentralised supply-side technologies, combined
with high demand-side participation (DSP), facilitates a rapid transformation of the sector to meet
strong emission targets. Australia remains competitive on the global stage and reaps the benefit of
strong international growth.
Internationally agreed CO2-emission (CO2-e) reduction targets of less than 450 ppm by 2050 have
been achieved. Government and industry investment in low emissions technology such as carbon
coal and sequestration (CCS) means that these technologies are cheaper than expected.
Geothermal, solar and wind operate on a large scale. Coal and gas are fitted with CCS and
continue to operate in traditional generation locations.
World-wide growth in LNG demand supports LNG production in Australia and gas prices in the
northern States reach international parity.
Under this future, research and development into CCS and geothermal technologies have
proceeded faster than expected and the technologies are clearly viable on a large scale. Coal
generators in the Eastern Corridor will be preparing to fit CCS to existing generation and new and
existing generators will be building new gas plants in the Eastern Corridor to take advantage of the
carbon storage capability in the region.
New entry wind generation will have slowed down as proponents watch geothermal taking off with
the first large scale geothermal plant built in South Australia in 2015.
LNG production in Australia has ramped up and gas prices in the northern States have doubled,
limiting new gas generation in New South Wales and Queensland.
VAPR scenario
The VAPR scenario in a Fast rate of change world may take the following shape:
Substantial new gas generation in the Eastern Corridor, combined with no retirement of existing
generators.
Growth on the gas DTS from GPG generation in the Eastern Corridor.
Rising imports from South Australia into Victoria from geothermal generation.
Substantial exports into New South Wales from both Eastern Corridor generation and South
Australia.
Moderate growth in DSP and GPG on the gas DTS in the Greater Melbourne and Geelong
region.

8.4.4 Scenario 2 - An uncertain world
Carbon policy uncertainty creates barriers for emerging demand and supply-side technologies.
Strong international demand for Australias resources drives high economic and population growth,
resulting in high energy demand.
A target CO2-e concentration not exceeding 550 ppm by 2050 has been agreed internationally, but
is constantly being reviewed and debated.
A high-risk premium is placed on capital investment in the electricity sector due to continuing carbon
policy uncertainty. Low levels of investment in research and development results in slowed
investment in new, low-emission electricity generation, and delays the anticipated retirement of older
plant.
Deployment of new demand-side technologies is also muted and the cost of small-scale renewables
remains high. Wind farms are tolerated, but local community resistance has begun to force the
selection of more remote sites.
Domestic LNG production is limited as Australia struggles to capture its share of the international
market, leading to low domestic gas prices across the eastern seaboard.
The low gas price and relatively strong industrial demand in the northern States have supported new
gas generation in New South Wales and Queensland. The weak carbon target has not caused the
retirement of existing coal generation. With no CCS on the immediate horizon there has been no
new development in the Eastern Corridor.
After the completion of generation projects that were on the table in 2008-2010, there is little further
investment in Victoria due to the uncertain investment environment, with the result that Victoria has
become a stronger importer from the northern States.
New entry geothermal generation is still uncertain, and community resistance to local installation (a
not in my backyard or NIMBY attitude) has slowed down the rate of new entry wind generation,
leaving South Australia short of generation.
VAPR Scenario
The VAPR scenario in An uncertain world may take the following shape:
Substantial imports from New South Wales into Victoria.
Moderate new investment in gas generation in the South-West Corridor.
Substantial export from Victoria into South Australia.
Little or no gas DTS growth.

8.4.5 Scenario 3 - A decentralised world
Demand-side technologies and distributed generation emerge as lower cost alternatives to new
centralised supply-side options, such as geothermal generation or CCS. The emergence of fuel cells
in homes, coupled with high uptake of commercial and industrial cogeneration and tri-generation,
increases domestic demand for gas.
Moderate reduction targets aimed at restricting CO2-e concentration to less than 550 ppm have
been implemented and met.
Domestic LNG production from coal seam gas manages to capture a reasonable share of
international demand, but new gas supply discoveries in the domestic market keep gas prices low
across the eastern seaboard.
New low-emission, baseload power sources, such as geothermal and CCS, have proven more
expensive than first thought and there has not been large-scale uptake. The first large-scale
geothermal plants were built in 2020, and the first CCS plants are yet to come. There has been
strong growth in wind generation and small scale renewable generation.
Wind generation in both Victoria and South Australia has grown rapidly due to strong renewable and
CO2-e targets and the lack of geothermal development.
In the Eastern Corridor there has been some retirement of brown coal as well as some conversion to
GPG. There has been a strong focus on energy efficiency and demand-side initiatives including
smart meters, solar water heaters, and photo-voltaic panels.
VAPR Scenario
The VAPR scenario in A decentralised world may take the following shape:
Substantial demand-side participation in the Greater Melbourne and Geelong region.
Substantial new wind generation in both the south west and regional areas, as well as supporting
gas peaking generation
Less generation than currently exists in the Eastern Corridor, with some conversion from coal to
gas, causing some gas DTS growth.
Moderate demand for GPG in Melbourne and Geelong, and additional demand on the gas DTS.
8.4.6 Scenario 4 - Oil shock and adaptation
After reaching agreement on a global carbon emissions policy, the international economy is
challenged by a global oil shortage, putting upward pressure on oil and gas prices and leading to
low economic growth both internationally and domestically. Higher than expected CCS costs and
fossil fuel prices lead to greater reliance on centralised renewable energy options.
CO2-e targets are moderate at 550 ppm by 2050. Demand-side initiatives and CCS have proven to
be more costly than first anticipated, which has made meeting the CO2-e target more challenging.

Oil reserve shortages drive up international demand for LNG, and domestic LNG production has
increased, causing gas price rises.
Increasing gas prices caused by LNG export demand produce a heavy reliance on geothermal and
other renewable generation options to meet the growth in energy requirements. Gas peaking
generation also increases to support increased intermittent wind generation in the south west and
regional areas of Victoria.
The moderate CO2-e reduction causes some retirement and conversion of brown coal plant in the
Eastern Corridor, leaving Victoria reliant on increasing geothermal generation in South Australia.
VAPR Scenario
The VAPR scenario in an Oil shock and adaptation world may take the following shape:
Substantial wind and gas generation in the South-West Corridor.
Substantial geothermal and wind generation exports from South Australia to Victoria.
Less generation than currently exists in the Eastern Corridor, with some conversion from coal to
gas, causing some gas DTS growth.
Moderate growth in DSP and GPG on the DTS in Greater Melbourne and Geelong.
8.4.7 Scenario 5 - Slow rate of change
Low domestic economic growth and population growth, driven by difficulties accessing capital, slows
the rate of transformation of the Stationary Energy Sector. Australia moves further towards a service
economy, with some manufacturing and energy-intensive industry moving off-shore.
Boosting economic activity is considered the key priority for government. To support the domestic
coal industry, CCS research is supported but low demand growth slows this technologys rate of
deployment.
Significant support for geothermal research enables the first large scale geothermal plant to be built
in South Australia in 2016, leading to large exports to Victoria by 2018/19. The entry of geothermal
generation to the renewable market has significantly slowed investment in wind generation.
Geothermal generation proposals are also close to becoming committed in New South Wales.
The government support for CCS and the low CO2-e target has encouraged brown coal generators
to remain operating, but there has been no new investment.
VAPR Scenario
The VAPR scenario in a Slow rate of change world may take the following shape:
Very little generation growth in Victoria.
Substantial geothermal and wind generation exports from South Australia to Victoria.
Little or no demand growth on the gas DTS.

Little net power transfer between Victoria and New South Wales.
8.4.8 Electricity supply-demand balance 2019/20
Table 8-3 lists the supply-demand balance used for the 10-year outlook, setting out the levels of
existing and committed generation, import and export, Victorian demand and the reserve figures
used to determine the requirement for new generation.
Table 8-3 Electricity supply-demand balance (MW) 2019/20
Supply-demand source Supply-demand (MW)
Demand Victorian native demand (10% POE)

12,777
Victorian minimum reserve level 665
Total demand plus reserve level 13,442
Supply Anglesea 156
Bairnsdale 74
Bogong 140
Clover 26
Dartmouth 153
Eildon 120
Energy Brix Complex 164
Hazelwood 1,580
Hume (Vic) 17
Jeeralang 416
Laverton North GT 310
Loy Yang A 2,190
Loy Yang B 965
McKay Creek 160
Mortlake 518
Murray 1,500
Newport 475
Somerton GT 133
Valley Power 270
West Kiewa 66
Yallourn 1,420
Import from Tasmania 600
Portland wind generation (132 MW) 11
Waubra wind power generation (192 MW) 15
Distribution connected wind power generation (104 MW) 8
Distribution connected non-wind power generation 14
Total supply 11,453

Supply-demand source Supply-demand (MW)
Amount of additional new generation required 1,989
1. The combined minimum reserve level (MRL) for Victoria and South Australia is 615 MW. The minimum reserve level for
South Australia is -50 MW (as per the 2009 Electricity Statement of Opportunities). These minimum reserve levels are
assumed for 2019/20
2. Scheduled generation capacities are based on the summer 2018/19 figures from AEMOs 2008 Electricity Statement of
Opportunities.
8.4.9 National transmission planning
The National Transmission Network Development Plan
In 2010, AEMO will publish its first National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP). The
NTNDP will provide AEMOs view of the efficient development of the national transmission grid for a
planning horizon covering the next 20 years for a range of credible scenarios.
The NTNDP is intended to be a key planning resource for the electricity industry, and AEMO is
seeking stakeholder views about how the NTNDP can best meet their needs.
2009 National Transmission Statement outcomes
In 2009, AEMO published the National Transmission Statement (NTS). This was a transitional
document that replaced the Annual National Transmission Statement (ANTS)
38
.
The NTS was published in two volumes:
Volume 1 National Grid 2030 for a Low Carbon Australia was a vision statement, drawing on
and providing a high-level analysis of the results from Volume 2.
Volume 2 Modelling and Analysis provided a detailed analysis of historical NEM transmission
network performance, emerging needs identified by the jurisdictional planning bodies (JPBs), and
projected network performance based on market simulation.
The findings on Victorian electricity transmission planning have been incorporated into this years
VAPR, with particular emphasis on the scenarios that were developed (See Section 8.4.2).
8.5 Gas planning
AEMOs planning role
AEMO is the system operator and gas planner for Victorias gas transmission network, the gas
Declared Transmission System (DTS). In performing this role, AEMO undertakes its responsibility in
accordance with the National Gas Rules (NGR). AEMOs identification and subsequent provision of
information about potential constraints constitutes advice to the market, but does not impose an
obligation on market participants to act.

38
Previously published by the National Electricity Market Management Company (NEMMCO).

Planning criteria and scenario development
Information about gas planning updates for 2010 involves the following:
Gas planning criteria.
Gas scenario planning and scenario development.
Gas planning criteria
AEMO has reviewed and updated the gas planning criteria and gas scenarios (used to assess
system constraints and propose possible gas transmission network developments) for each gas
region for 2010. These updates build on the criteria used for the 2009 VAPR and also take into
account emerging gas industry trends.
Gas scenario planning and scenario development
AEMO uses 5-year and 10-year outlook studies as a screening process to identify transmission
constraints and possible augmentation options.
Identified constraints receive further, more detailed analyses that are beyond the scope of the
VAPR, the results of which are published in Major System Augmentation Reports. Possible
augmentation requirements within the 5-year outlook period are then prioritised.
The VAPRs 5-year outlook studies are based on a set of trigger events that give rise to the need for
augmentation. The reduced certainty surrounding these events in the 10-year outlook studies,
however, requires modelling that uses a scenario-planning approach.
The gas planning criteria, 5-year outlook studies, and 10-year outlook study scenarios reflect both
current and possible future demand on the gas DTS, and have been developed in partnership with
gas industry stakeholders. This approach facilitates prudent, early identification and exploration of
potential system constraints and augmentation requirements.
As gas is both readily available and less greenhouse-gas intensive than other fossil fuels, it is likely
that it will continue to be an attractive option for new entry generation. As a result, the studies also
consider various possible locations for future generation of this type.
The 5-year outlook studies and 10-year outlook study scenarios also cover new patterns of physical
gas flow through the gas DTS. In the past, Victorian gas supplied Victorian demand centres.
However, new commercial drivers and the evolution of the gas transmission network have increased
the demand for Victorian gas for export to other States.
Industry stakeholders have advised of:
proposals to export larger amounts of gas through the Northern Zone, and
the possibility of supplying gas from Longford to South Australia via Iona.
Both these proposals impact the Northern Zone and the scenario export considerations (which
manifest as a focus on augmentations in the Northern Zone).
All gas scenarios at least consider:
1 in 20 peak demand conditions, and
25 TJ/d of demand from existing GPG plants during 1 in 20 peak demand conditions.

The scenarios also consider some or all of the following factors:
new entry OCGT GPG (at different locations)
new entry CCGT GPG (at different locations), and
increased gas exports.
8.5.1 Planning for the 5-year outlook
To assess system constraints and propose possible gas transmission network developments for
each gas zone, the 5-year gas planning criteria for the winter peak day considers:
1 in 20 winter demand
25 TJ/d demand from existing GPG
900 MW of new CCGT, and
export of up to 28 TJ/d via Culcairn to New South Wales.
The 5-year outlook studies aim to meet target system pressure, and assume that Longford and
BassGas provide the majority of supply, with gas from Iona meeting any further capacity
requirements.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is used for peak shaving when supply from Longford, BassGas and
Iona cannot maintain target system pressures. Under this planning approach, a requirement for LNG
in excess of the 60 TJ/day assumed for within-day balancing purposes leaves no security margin
and no redundancy in the LNG facility for at least part of the day, making curtailment highly likely
(see Chapter 5 for more information about LNG and within-day balancing). Scenarios that consider
enhanced northern export also impact LNG usage.
Four main triggers for recommended augmentations are as follows:
System demand growth, which has historically been the main driver of gas DTS augmentations.
New entry GPG, which can have the effect of accelerating system demand growth leading to the
need for augmentations that would otherwise not be required as soon.
Greater export, which is not strictly a trigger for augmentation but rather the consequence of
evolving commercial and market outcomes.
Other factors, such as operating conditions, gas velocity and the amount of injection.
Increased export capability through Culcairn was considered based on committed augmentations in
the Northern Zone. See Chapter 9, for information about export capability through Culcairn, and for
information about the findings of the 5-year outlook analysis and the triggers for augmentation.
The committed augmentations in the Northern Zone have been assumed to be operational in the
2010 winter for the purposes of this study.
8.5.2 Planning for the 10-year outlook
This section describes the demand and supply scenarios created to enable a study of the gas DTS
over the next 10 years. To model the system for this period of time, it is necessary to take a view
about likely demand and supply patterns in 10 years time. While system demand can be forecast,
and a central view taken, this approach is not appropriate for GPG demand.
As the location of new GPG can considerably affect the pattern of gas flows and system constraints,
a scenario-based planning approach has been adopted due to the range of possible sites for new
GPG plant and possible network flows of gas under different demand and gas market conditions.

Furthermore, as combined system and GPG demand will exceed current supplies, supply increases
(injections) are also assumed.
Four scenarios were developed that considered different locations for new GPG demand:
The emphasis for Scenario 1 was new GPG demand in the Eastern Corridor.
The emphasis for Scenario 2 was new GPG demand in the South-West Corridor.
The emphasis for Scenario 3 was new GPG demand in Greater Melbourne and Geelong.
The emphasis for Scenario 4 was new GPG demand in Regional Victoria.
The 10-year outlook also considered a further increase in export capability through Culcairn, beyond
the increases considered in the 5-year outlook, as well as export to South Australia. These export
scenarios are defined as Scenarios 5a-5d.
The NTNDP scenarios described in Section 8.4 form the basis for the 10-year gas planning
scenarios. Table 8-2 shows how the NTNDP scenarios impact the expected electricity supply
outlook, and quantifies the additional capacity expected to be provided by GPG. Not all the NTNDP
scenarios, however, are expected to impact GPG demand, and one NTNDP scenario may
potentially lead to two different GPG demand scenarios. With respect to the relationship between
the NTNDP scenarios and the gas planning scenarios:
Scenario 1 Fast rate of change had an emphasis on new generation in the Eastern Corridor and
aligns with gas planning Scenario 1.
Scenario 3 Decentralised world included new gas generation in Greater Melbourne and Geelong
and Regional Victoria. One potential variation of this scenario aligns with Gas Planning Scenario
3 and the other potential variation of this scenario aligns with gas planning Scenario 4.
Scenario 4 Oil shock and adaptation included substantial new gas generation in the South-West
Corridor. This scenario aligns with the gas planning Scenario 2.
Scenario 2 Uncertain world and Scenario 5 Slow rate of change both assumed that there would
be no additional GPG demand on the gas DTS within the next 10 years.
The 10-year development studies
The 10-year outlook studies include a high and low system demand scenario, including other factors
such as existing and new GPG demand and exports (which make up sub-scenario parameters).
The four triggers for augmentation for the 5-year outlook have also been used to characterise the
findings of the 10-year outlook studies.
See Chapter 9 for information about the findings of the 10-year outlook analysis and the triggers for
augmentation.
High system demand scenarios
The following assumptions were made for the 10-year study for high system demand:
The current peak day system demand forecast for 2019 is 1,356 TJ/d. Allowing for 25 TJ/d of
existing GPG demand, approximately 200 TJ/d export via Culcairn, and an additional GPG
demand forecast of 186 TJ/d, gives a total peak day demand forecast for 2019 of approximately
1,767 TJ/d.
Firm supplies forecast for 2014 are 1,518 TJ/d (excluding LNG), leaving the assumption that a
further 249 TJ/d (approximately) will be available by 2019. For these screening studies this is

assumed to be supplied at Longford, given the high levels of non-firm forecast for 2014. See
Chapter 5, Section 5.3.1, for more information.
Existing GPG demand from GPG (OCGT) plant was considered given the level of GPG demand
observed during the 2007 peak day.
Taking the GPG demand forecast into account (see the 2009 VAPR Update, Section 1.1.6, for
more information), it is assumed that between 1,200 MW and 1,400 MW of new GPG will be
supplied from the gas DTS.
Of the gas DTS-connected GPG, all scenarios include at least 500 MW of new CCGT in Greater
Melbourne and Geelong, and an additional 400 MW of new CCGT in the Eastern Corridor, and
300-500 MW located in one of either the Eastern Corridor, Greater Melbourne and Geelong,
South-West Corridor, or Regional Victoria.
All CCGTs are assumed to run at 100% load factor during the modelled peak gas demand period.
Table 8-4 lists a summary of the high system demand scenario, sent out electricity at year 10 used
to assess Victorian DTS augmentation requirements.
Table 8-4 New CCGT assumptions for high system demand scenarios for the 10-year outlook
(2019)
Electricity sent out (MW)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Eastern Corridor (L) 700 400 400 400
(M)
500 500 800 500
South-West (SW) 0 500 0 0
Regional (R) 0 0 0 300

Low system demand scenarios
The following assumptions were made for the 10-year study for low system demand:
All CCGT GPG runs 24-hours per day, 7-days per week during the peak gas demand period.
CCGT plant efficiency (sent-out electrical energy) is assumed to be 52%.
Scenario 5 Low system demand with injection at Longford and no injection at Iona was
developed to test the systems capacity for export under low system demand conditions.
Table 8-5 lists the sub-scenarios considered for Scenario 5 as at year 10. The emphasis of these
sub-scenarios is to consider the impact of export to New South Wales and South Australia in
conjunction with different possible locations for new GPG.

Table 8-5 Low system demand with injection at Longford and no injection at Iona (2019)

New GPG (MW)

Export to
NSW
(TJ/d)
Export to
SA
(TJ/d)
System
Demand
(TJ/d)
Existing
GPG Sent
Out
Electricity
(MW)
Scenario
5a
Scenario
5b
Scenario
5c
Scenario
5d

Eastern
Corridor (L)
200 80 400 150 700 400 400 400

Greater
Melbourne
and Geelong
(M)
200 80 400 150 500 500 800 500

South-West
Corridor (SW)
200 80 400 150 0 500 0 0

Regional (R)
200 80 400 150 0 0 0 300
Long-term planning considerations
Long-term planning considerations include the following:
New large GPG demand will significantly impact both gas and electricity transmission, with a
range of factors determining whether GPG will be located near fuel sources or loads.
Gas and electricity have different market processes and locational price signals. For example,
investors may build new GPG close to gas supplies to:
avoid complexity risk (e.g. operating in two complex markets rather than one), and/or
use equity gas, rather than purchased gas, in situations where the investor also owns large gas
reserves.
New small GPG demand located close to load centres may enable the deferral of electricity
network augmentation.
The increased presence of wind power generation may increase the demand for GPG, the
flexibility of which can compensate for wind power variability by providing frequency control
ancillary services.
Large GPG installations may place challenging demands on gas transmission network
operations. Current methods of network operation are based on the use of linepack, underground
and LNG storages, which do not smooth demand. CCGT gas demand, however, has greater
potential to reduce the effects of demand variation than most other gas loads. As a result, new
approaches to gas transmission network operation may need to be developed to support GPG.
GPG demand for gas can be met by dedicated new transmission or by augmentation of the gas
DTS, or both. For new GPG facilities located in or around:
the Eastern and the South-West Corridor, dedicated new transmission is a more likely option, and
Greater Melbourne and Geelong, augmentation of the gas DTS may be necessary.
See Chapter 7 for information about existing spare gas DTS capacity for GPG.

Whereas GPG in the Eastern and the South-West Corridor may be supplied via dedicated
transmission, supply for GPG around Melbourne and Geelong is more likely to require gas DTS
augmentation as well as:
increased supply from Longford and/or Iona, and
augmentation of the outer metropolitan ring and the building of new off-take points to move gas
from the ring to GPG sites.
Given the proximity to urban areas, environmental issues and the acquisition of the necessary
easements may also present significant issues.
8.6 Electricity and gas planning scenario overlaps
The 10-year outlook scenarios for both electricity and gas planning have been developed to ensure
consistency.
The electricity supply scenarios do not differentiate between coal-fired generation and GPG (see
Table 8-2), which allows for the location of new CCGTs identified in the gas scenarios, where:
the Eastern Corridor is the same in both sets of scenarios
Greater Melbourne and Geelong CCGTs are within the Greater Melbourne and Geelong
electricity region, and
Brooklyn-Geelong CCGTs can be within either the Greater Melbourne and Geelong or South-
West Corridor electricity regions.
Figure 8-2 shows the possible locations for new CCGTs considered in the 10-year outlook
scenarios. See the figure on the inside front cover for a legend and more detail about other
locations.


Figure 8-2 Possible new GPG locations considered in the 10-year outlook scenarios

Newport
Tyers
Wollert
Stonehaven
Modelled
Locations of new
GPG
Northern
zone
Loy
Yang

AEMO 2010 171 Chapter 9 Transmission development
Chapter 9 Transmission Development
This chapter presents information about existing and emerging limitations on the electricity Declared
Shared Network (electricity DSN) and the gas Declared Transmission System (gas DTS). This
includes plant outages and system capacity impacts, existing spare capacity, the status of major
augmentations, and future planned developments for the forecast period (based on forecast
Victorian energy and maximum demand (MD)), and the transmission network development options
designed to alleviate them.
This information is presented by region, covering both electricity and gas in each case, to enable
identification of specific transmission network development synergies.
In this chapter:
Section 9.1 summarises identified electricity DSN constraints by region, covering a 5-year outlook
and an outlook at year 10.
Section 9.2 summarises identified gas DTS constraints by region, covering a 5-year outlook and
an outlook at year 10.
Section 9.3 lists the identified electricity DSN and gas DTS constraints by region (where relevant,
identifying the potential impact, subject to the Regulatory Investment Test for Transmission (RIT
T), of continued high gas powered generation (GPG) demand on gas DTS constraint solution
timings, and any development options currently being investigated
39
.
Section 9.4 lists electricity DSN impacts and considerations resulting from distribution network
service provider planning.
Section 9.5 outlines the SP AusNet Transmission asset renewal process and 10-year plan.
Section 9.6 presents information about future gas transmission system developments (both
proposed and commenced, and not necessarily linked to identified system constraints), and any
significant new connections.
Section 9.7 lists the potential impacts from specific gas plant outages.
Section 9.8 lists specific gas plant outages by month for the 2010 planning year (sourced from
the 2009 VAPR Update).
9.1 Electricity transmission development
9.1.1 Electricity Declared Shared Network constraints
This section summarises the electricity DSN constraints by Victorian electricity region:
Eastern Corridor
South-West Corridor
Northern Corridor

39
Although electricity and gas regions are not precisely aligned, they share sufficient similarities to enable a
common regional categorisation.

Regional Victoria.
Each regions constraints and possible network solutions are presented in terms of the 5-year (years
1-5) and 10-year (year 10) outlooks. AEMO bases its constraint analysis on the energy and
maximum demand (MD) forecasts presented in the 2009 VAPR, because the latest electricity
forecasts (see Chapter 4 for more information) do not become available until late May.
The constraint analysis:
assumes that the committed augmentations described in Chapter 3 will be in-service, as planned,
and
covers transmission constraints arising from transmission network capacity limitations.
Table 9-1 lists a summary of the network constraints for each Victorian region. The 10-year outlooks
network solutions are only regarded as possible, and have not undergone rigorous economic
justification.
Table 9-1 - Electricity transmission network constraint summary
Constraint
Possible network
solution
Trigger Status
Eastern Corridor (see Section 9.3.1)
Five-
year
outlook
Transient stability
export limit
Braking resistor installation
at Hazelwood Terminal
Station
Increased export
to New South
Wales and/or
South Australia
Identified for RIT-T
assessment in 2010/11
Hazelwood 500/220
kV transformer
loading
500/220 kV transformer
installation
Generation
dispatch/new
generation
connected
around the
Latrobe Valley
220 kV area
Detailed assessment
completed in 2009/10 with no
justifiable solution will re-
assess at the time of
additional generation around
the Latrobe Valley 220 kV
network
Hazelwood-Loy Yang
500 kV line loading
Line installation and/or
additional circuit breaker
installation
Generation
dispatch/new
generation or
increased import
connected
around the
Latrobe Valley
500 kV area
Detailed assessment
justifiable solution will re-
assess at the time of
additional generation around
the Latrobe Valley 500 kV
network, or additional import
from Tasmania
Ten-
year
outlook

Latrobe Valley-
Melbourne 500 kV line
loading
Termination and circuit
breaker upgrades, and line
installation
Generation
dispatch/new
generation or
increased import
connected
around the
Latrobe Valley
500 kV and/or
220 kV area
Reassessment at time of
increased generation around
the Latrobe Valley 500 kV or
220 kV networks, or
additional import from
Tasmania
South-West Corridor (see Section 9.3.2)
Five-
year
outlook
Moorabool-Heywood-
Portland 500 kV line
voltage unbalance
Installation of additional
line transpositions on the
Moorabool-Heywood-
Portland 500 kV line
New generation
connections
along the
Moorabool-
Heywood 500 kV
line
Identified for further
assessment dependant on
new generation

Constraint
Possible network
solution
Trigger Status
Heywood 500/275/22
kV transformer
loading
New 500/275/22 kV
transformer and 500 kV
bus-tie installation at
Heywood Terminal Station
New generation/
increased bi-
directional
transfer between
Victoria and
South Australia
Undergoing detailed
assessment as part of the
VIC-SA joint feasibility study
Ten-
year
outlook
Insufficient connection
points for possible
wind farm and GPG
connections
New connection point
provision
New generation
connections
along the
Moorabool-
Heywood 500 kV
line
Preparation of a new
connection point provision is
underway
Moorabool-Heywood
500 kV line loading
New Moorabool-Heywood
500 kV line installation
New generation
connections
along the
Moorabool-
Heywood 500 kV
line
Undergoing detailed
Heywood-South East
275 kV line loading
New Heywood-South East
Increased bi-
directional
transfer between
Victoria and
South Australia
Undergoing detailed
Voltage instability or
collapse
Additional static VAr
compensation (SVC)
New generation/
increased bi-
directional
transfer between
Victoria and
South Australia
Undergoing detailed
Northern Corridor (see Section 9.3.3)
Five-
year
outlook

Murray-Dederang 330
kV line loading
Series compensation,
and/or a new Murray-
Dederang 330 kV line
installation
Increased import
from New South
Wales
Undergoing detailed
NSW-VIC feasibility study
(focussing on the Snowy
Mountains Scheme)
Eildon-Thomastown
220 kV line loading
Wind monitoring, line
uprating, and/or series
compensation on the
Eildon-Thomastown 220
kV line
Increased import
from New South
Wales
Undergoing detailed
Mountains Scheme)
Dederang-Mount
Beauty 220 kV line
loading
Wind monitoring
installation or line uprating
of the Dederang-Mount
Beauty 220 kV line
Increased
generation in the
Eildon/Kiewa
area
Detailed assessment
justifiable solution will
monitor with increasing
generation in the
Eildon/Kiewa area
Dederang-South
Morang 330 kV line
loading
Line and series capacitor
uprating, and/or a new
Dederang-South Morang
Increased import
from New South
Wales
Undergoing detailed
Mountains Scheme)
Dederang 330/220 kV
transformer loading
New 330/220 kV
transformer installation at
Dederang Terminal Station
Increased import
from New South
Wales
Undergoing detailed
Mountains Scheme)

Constraint
Possible network
solution
Trigger Status
Ten-
year
outlook

Voltage collapse at
South Morang,
Dederang, Wodonga
and Jindera
Capacitor bank installation,
and controlled series
compensation at Dederang
Terminal Station
Increased import
from New South
Wales
Undergoing detailed
Mountains Scheme)
Greater Melbourne and Geelong (see Section 9.3.4)
Five-
year
outlook

Eastern Metro
500/220 kV
transformer and
220kV line loading
New 500/220 kV
transformer installation at
Rowville or Cranbourne
Terminal Station
Increased
demand in the
Melbourne
metropolitan
area
Identified for further
assessment
South Morang
330/220 kV
transformer loading
New or higher rated
replacement 330/220 kV
transformer or new
installation at South
Morang Terminal Station
Increased
demand in the
Melbourne
metropolitan
area
Detailed assessment
commenced in 2009/10 with
no justifiable solution
reached will finalise
assessment with updated
demand forecasts
South Morang
500/330 kV
transformer loading
New 500/330 kV or
installation at South
Morang Terminal Station
Increased export
to New South
Wales
Undergoing detailed
Mountains Scheme)
Double circuit 220 kV
line security in the
south east
metropolitan area
New circuit installation
Increased
demand at
Springvale,
Heatherton,
Malvern and
Tyabb terminal
stations and/or
the facility to
Western Port
Joint assessment with
distribution business (DBs)
commenced in 2009/10 with
no justifiable solution
reached will finalise
assessment with updated
demand forecasts
Rowville-Springvale
220 kV line loading
Conductor replacement or
new Rowville-Springvale
220 kV circuit installation
Increased
demand at
Springvale
and/or
Heatherton
terminal stations
Detailed assessment
justifiable solution will
monitor with increased load
growth
Metropolitan 220 kV
line loading
Dynamic rating wind
monitoring scheme
installations around the
Melbourne metropolitan
area
Increased
demand in the
Melbourne
metropolitan
area
Detailed assessment
completed in 2009/10 with
wind monitoring scheme
installation likely by around
2016 will monitor with
increased load growth
Rowville 220 kV bus
fault level
Bus support insulator
replacements
Increased
demand/
generation,
particularly in the
Rowville area
Bus support insulator
replacements to take place in
conjunction with terminal
station refurbishment
Ten-
year
outlook

Rowville-Malvern 220
kV line loading
Line uprating
Increased
demand at
Malvern
Terminal Station
Emerging constraint with no
justifiable solution at this time
will monitor with increasing
demand
Thomastown-
Ringwood 220 kV line
loading
220 kV line cut-in at
Ringwood
Increased
demand in the
Melbourne
metropolitan
area
demand

Constraint
Possible network
solution
Trigger Status
South Morang-
Thomastown 220 kV
line overloading
220 kV line cut-in at South
Morang
Increased
demand in the
Melbourne
metropolitan
area
demand
collapse
Additional reactive power
compensating plant
installation
Increased
demand in the
Melbourne
metropolitan
area
will monitor with increased
load growth
Fault levels
Operational arrangements,
series reactor installation,
switchgear replacement
Increased
demand and/or
generation,
particularly in the
Melbourne
metropolitan
area
Reassessment at the time of
increased
demand/generation in this
area
Regional Victoria (see Section 9.3.5)
Five-
year
outlook
Ballarat-Bendigo 220
kV line
Line uprating
Increased
demand in
Regional Victoria
Ballarat-Moorabool
220 kV line
Line uprating or new line
installation
Increased
demand in
Regional Victoria
Geelong-Moorabool
220 kV line loading
Line uprating or
replacement with new lines
Increased
demand in the
Geelong and
Melbourne
metropolitan
area and/or
generation in
Regional Victoria
or along the
South-West
Corridor
Ten-
year
outlook

Bendigo-Fosterville-
Shepparton 220 kV
line loading
Line uprating, phase angle
regulator, or new line
construction
Increased
demand in
Regional Victoria
increased demand in this
area
Ballarat-Horsham 220
kV line loading
Line uprating or
Increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
increased generation in this
area
Ballarat-Terang 220
kV line loading
Line uprating or
Increased
demand at
Terang Terminal
Station and/or
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
area
Moorabool-Terang
220 kV line loading
Line uprating or
Increased
demand at
Terang Terminal
Station and/or
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
area
Horsham-Red Cliffs
220 kV line loading
Line uprating or
Increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
area

Constraint
Possible network
solution
Trigger Status
Kerang-Wemen-Red
Cliffs 220 kV line
loading
Line uprating or
Increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
area
Buronga-Red Cliffs
220 kV line loading
Line uprating
Increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
area
Dederang-Glenrowan
220 kV line loading
Line uprating, phase angle
regulator, or new line
construction
Increased
demand in
Regional Victoria
and/or increased
import from New
South Wales
(focussing on the
Snowy
Mountains
Scheme)
increased
area
collapse
Additional reactive power
compensating plant
installation
Increased
demand in
Regional Victoria
will monitor with increased
load growth
Fault levels
Operational arrangements,
series reactor installation,
switchgear replacement
Increased
demand and/or
generation,
particularly in
Regional Victoria
increased
area
9.2 Gas transmission development
9.2.1 Declared Transmission System constraints
This section summarises the gas transmission constraints for Victoria, and presents identified gas
DTS constraints, plant outages and system capacity impacts, current spare transmission system
capacity, the status of major transmission system augmentations, and future planned developments
for the forecast period (2010-2019) by Victorian gas region:
Gippsland Zone
Western Zone
Northern Zone
Melbourne and Geelong Zone, and
Ballarat Zone.
Constraints are identified when a part of the gas DTS experiences lower pressures than the
minimum pressure obligations required by the System Security Guidelines (SSG) or Distribution
Business Connection Deeds. Constraints are grouped by gas region for augmentation within the
next 5 and 10-years.
AEMO has modelled the gas DTS and produced possible network solutions for the constraints
identified in each region. Other network solutions are always possible, and AEMOs modelling
cannot be considered exhaustive.
Table 9-2 lists a summary of the gas DTS constraints, identified by modelling 1 in 20 peak day
demand assuming all plant is available. See Section 9.3 for more information about each constraint.

Table 9-2 Principal Transmission System constraint summary
Gippsland Zone (see Section 9.3.1)
Five-year
outlook
Warragul Warragul branch pipeline duplication
(dependent on increased
demand)
Pakenham South

Pakenham South branch duplication
The pipeline owner has indicated that
duplication of the small diameter section of this
lateral is being undertaken, and is expected to
be complete by the end of May 2010

leading to high gas velocity
on the branch pipeline
Ten-year
outlook
Longford pipeline
Duplication upstream and downstream of
Gooding to account for the limited pipeline
capacity

Higher injections at
Longford, new entry GPG
(CCGT) and increased gas
export
Western Zone (see Section 9.3.2)
Five-year
outlook
Western
Transmission
System
A new system injection point

and low or no injection
coming from Iona
Ten-year
outlook
No constraints
identified based
on current
demand forecast
Not applicable Not applicable
Northern Zone (see Section 9.3.3)
Five-year
outlook
Shepparton/
Echuca

Culcairn
(exports)

Upgrade maximum allowable operating
pressure (MAOP) to 8,800 kPa from Wollert to
Euroa
Wollert Compressor Station upgrade, and
northwards compression at Springhurst
A new compressor station at Euroa is required
to further increase export capacity
Increased system demand,
especially gas export of
approximately 28 TJ/d
export to New South
Wales
Ten-year
outlook
Culcairn
(exports)
Pipeline duplication between Wollert to
Barnawartha
Gas export of
approximately 200 TJ/d
Geelong/Melbourne Zone (see Section 9.3.4)
Five-year
outlook
Maroondah
Highway
Yarra Glen to Lilydale link

South West
Pipeline
A new compressor station at Stonehaven
New entry GPG, gas
export
Ten-year
outlook
South West
Pipeline
A new Rockbank to Wollert pipeline
Pipeline duplication from Iona to Lara

Higher injections at Iona,
new entry GPG (CCGT),
and gas export to New
South Wales

Additional compression capability at Wollert to
compress gas toward Iona
A new compressor station at Rockbank to
compress gas toward Iona
Gas export to South
Australia

Ballarat Zone (see Section 9.3.5)
Five-year
outlook
Sunbury
Operate Wandong pressure limiter at high
outlet pressure

Wales
Tie over the Sunbury lateral to the BLP pipeline
and
Sunbury branch pipeline duplication

Wales

Ten-year
outlook
No constraints
identified based
on current
demand forecast
Not applicable Not applicable

9.3 Regional transmission constraints
This section presents a combined view of transmission constraints by corresponding electricity and
gas regions. Although electricity and gas regions are not precisely aligned, they share sufficient
similarities to enable a common regional categorisation.
Table 9-3 electricity and gas regions
Electricity region Gas region
The Eastern Corridor Gippsland Zone
The South-West Corridor Western Zone
The Northern Corridor Northern Zone
Greater Melbourne and Geelong Melbourne and Geelong Zone
Regional Victoria Ballarat Zone
9.3.1 The Eastern Corridor/Gippsland Zone
The Eastern Corridor and Gippsland Zone connect the greater Melbourne load centre to electricity
generation in the Latrobe Valley and major gas supplies at Longford and VicHub (see Chapter 3 for
more information about the Eastern Corridor and its electrical and gas layouts).
This review:
involves constraints caused by issues within this region, and
identifies constraint impacts and potential solutions to maintain the efficient transmission of
electricity and gas.
Eastern Corridor electricity 5-year outlook
The Eastern Corridors 5-year outlook (years 1-5) includes the following constraints:
A transient stability export limit.
Hazelwood 500/220 kV transformer loading.
Hazelwood-Loy Yang 500 kV line loading.

Transient stability export limit
Background
Transient stability has been identified as limiting power flow in the Victoria to New South Wales
direction and/or in the Victoria to South Australia direction under certain network operating conditions.
Network constraints are invoked for system normal and various outage conditions to constrain export
in preparation for a two-phase-to-ground fault on the Hazelwood-South Morang 500 kV line, resulting
in the trip of a Hazelwood-South Morang 500 kV circuit
Potential
impact
When binding under the existing constraint equations, power flow in the Victoria to New South Wales
direction is limited to a maximum of 1,246 MW and a minimum of 281 MW. The export limit also
impacts flows on the Basslink, Heywood-South East, Murraylink and Queensland-New South Wales
(QNI) interconnectors and the combined set of constraint equations bound for more then 600 hours in
the 2009 calendar year
Binding of this constraint equation will only result in loss of load if there is insufficient generation in a
particular region. This is more commonly associated with higher market prices due to the need to
dispatch higher cost generation, rather then utilise cheaper generation in adjacent National Electricity
Market (NEM) regions
Probability
weighted
constraint
assessment
Due to the nature of this constraint, it is primarily results in generation rescheduling, as opposed to
load reduction, and therefore has a small estimated value of less then $100,000 per annum in
2014/15
Possible
constraint
alleviation
options
Installation of a 500 MW, 500 kV braking resistor at Hazelwood Terminal Station, at an indicative cost
of $17 million, and/or
installation of a static VAr compensator (SVC) at Dederang Terminal Station, at an indicative cost of
$72 million
Economic
evaluation of
possible
options
The market benefits associated with these proposed options are currently insufficient to justify
augmentation
Conclusion
The market benefits associated with this constraint alone do not appear to justify the proposed
augmentation. However, AEMO will assess this constraint in detail in conjunction with other
interconnector limitations as part of the joint feasibility study between AEMO and ElectraNet on
South Australian interconnection, and the New South Wales-Victoria interconnector upgrade
feasibility study conducted by AEMO

Hazelwood 500/220 kV transformer loading
Background
The Hazelwood transformers are required for transferring power from generation connected at
Hazelwood power station and the Jeeralang Terminal Station 220 kV switchyards to the 500 kV
network. The flow through the Hazelwood 500/220 kV transformers is equal to the combined output
of all of the generation, less the Morwell area load and the power used by the generator auxiliaries.
There are four 500/220 kV transformers with a total capacity of 2,400 MVA. The transformers
loading is limited to 1,914 MVA, so that the outage of one transformer does not cause the loading on
the remaining parallel transformers to exceed their short-term capacity
The transformers thermal capacity :
requires the dispatch of generation of up to 400 MW (approximately) from generating units connected
at the Hazelwood Power Station and Jeeralang Terminal Station 220 kV switchyards to be
constrained, and
leads to no reduction of generation at times of high summer demand, with transfer of Yallourn
Generating Unit No.1 to the Yallourn 220 kV network via its alternative network connection

Potential
impact
A reduction in generation dispatched via the Hazelwood 500/220 kV transformers may increase
Victorian market prices due to the need to dispatch higher-cost plant in Victoria, New South Wales,
South Australia and Tasmania. The dispatch of higher-cost plant replaces cheaper but constrained-
off generation connected to the Hazelwood and Jeeralang 220 kV transmission networks
With prior outage of a Hazelwood 500/220 kV transformer, up to 640 MW of generation may need to
be constrained-off, with transfer of Yallourn Generating Unit No.1 to the Yallourn 220 kV transmission
network via its alternative network connection
Following outage of a Hazelwood 500/220 kV transformer, peak load reduction of approximately
20 MW is forecast during summer peak demand in the Melbourne area in 2013/14, increasing to
approximately 230 MW in 2014/15. However, historical information suggests the probability of a
Hazelwood 500/220 kV transformer being unavailable is less then 2%
Probability
weighted
constraint
assessment
AEMOs 2010 assessment determined that the value of the constraint is approximately $500,000 in
2014/15
Possible
constraint
alleviation
options
Installation of a fifth 500/220 kV transformer at Hazelwood Terminal Station, at an indicative cost is
$36.4 million, and including replacement of four 220 kV circuit breakers at the Jeeralang Terminal
Station to accommodate the increased fault level
Economic
evaluation of
possible
options
The market benefits associated with this proposed option are currently insufficient to justify
augmentation. AEMO expects that the market benefits of augmenting the network to alleviate this
constraint will continue to fall as demand from Morwell increases
Conclusion
An option to remove the Hazelwood transformer constraint involves installing an additional
Hazelwood 500/220 kV transformer and associated fault-level mitigation works with an indicative cost
of $36.4 million. AEMO has assessed the cost-benefits in detail and considers that the market
benefits of this option are currently insufficient and will continue to fall as demand from Morwell
increases and addition of new generation in Victoria at locations other than Hazelwood, Jeeralang
and Morwell connection points.

Hazelwood-Loy Yang 500 kV line loading
Background
The three 500 kV lines between Hazelwood Terminal Station and Loy Yang Power Station are key
components enabling access to generation at Loy Yang Power Station, and imports from Tasmania.
Each line is connected with only one circuit breaker at one end, and with a more secure switching
arrangement at the other end. A prior outage of a line or circuit breaker reduces the transfer
capability from Loy Yang to Hazelwood
Potential
impact
There is no constraint under system normal conditions. That is, with all three lines in service or in
preparation for any single unplanned outage of these lines, the dispatch of generation or import from
Tasmania is not constrained. However, with prior outage of a Hazelwood-Loy Yang line, the transfer
from Loy Yang to Hazelwood needs to be reduced below 3,000 MW. This is in preparation of an
additional unplanned outage that would leave only a single Hazelwood-Loy Yang line in service
Following loss of a Hazelwood-Loy Yang 500 kV circuit, peak load reduction in the Melbourne area of
approximately 100 MW may be required around 2012/13 to maintain system security. This increases
to approximately 450 MW in 2014/15. However, historical information suggests the probability of a
Hazelwood-Loy Yang circuit being unavailable is less then 1%
Probability
weighted
constraint
assessment
AEMOs 2010 assessment determined that the value of the constraint will be approximately $500,000
in 2014/15
Possible
constraint
alleviation
options
Two additional circuit breakers at Loy Yang and a new circuit breaker at Hazelwood at an indicative
cost of $14 million
A new (fourth) 500 kV line between Hazelwood and Loy Yang at an indicative cost of $55 million
(excluding easement cost)
Economic
evaluation of
possible
options
The market benefits of this option are currently insufficient to justify augmentation
Conclusion
AEMO has assessed the cost-benefits in detail and considers that the market benefits of this option
are currently insufficient. AEMO will re-assess this constraint at the time of additional generation or
import capability around the Latrobe Valley 500 kV area.


Figure 9-1 shows the schematic of the constraints identified during the Eastern Corridors 5-year
outlook.
Figure 9-1 Transient stability export limit/Hazelwood transformer loading/Hazelwood-Loy
Yang line loading
Rowville
Bass Link Loy Yang
Cranbourne
South
Morang
Yallourn
Jeeralang
Morwell
Hazelwood
Loy Yang
Loy Yang Gas
Tasmania
Possible installation of a 5
th
Possible installation of a new line
Possible installation of a 500 MW
500 kV Braking resistor

Eastern Corridor electricity 10-year outlook
Table 9-4 lists each supply scenarios impact in terms of the Eastern Corridors 10-year outlook
(year 10). See Chapter 8, Section 8.4, for a detailed description of the supply scenarios.
Table 9-4 Eastern Corridor supply scenario impacts (year 10)
Supply scenario Impact
Scenario 1 (LV, increased export to
NSW and increased import from SA)
Increased South Morang-Hazelwood 500 kV line and the Loy Yang-
Hazelwood 500 kV line capacity will be required
Increased transient stability limits will be required
Scenario 2 (Increased import from
NSW and export to SA)
Scenario 3 (Metro and Wind) None
Scenario 4 (SW and increased import
from SA and export to NSW)
Scenario 5 (Increased import from
SA)

Table 9-5 lists the specific Eastern Corridor transmission network constraints (and the possible
network solutions) resulting from each supply scenario.

Table 9-5 Eastern Corridor constraints (year 10)
Cost
estimate
($M)
Indicative timing Trigger
Inadequate
Latrobe
Valley-
Melbourne
500 kV line
thermal
capacity
Upgrading terminations and
circuit breaker thermal ratings at
Hazelwood
To be
costed
At the time
approximately 800 MW
of new Latrobe Valley
generation is
connected to the 500
kV network
Increased 500 kV
and/or 220 kV
generation in the
Latrobe Valley, as
modelled under
Scenario 1




Gippsland Zone gas 5-year outlook
Gippslands 5-year outlook (years 1-5) includes the following constraints:
Warragul minimum connection pressure breach.
Pakenham South excessive gas velocity.
Warragul minimum connection pressure breach
Background
The Warragul branch pipeline connects to the Lurgi pipeline approximately 67 km east of the
Dandenong City Gate (CG)
Issue
Assessments indicate that, with an increase in demand at Warragul, a breach in the minimum
connection pressure will occur at Warragul under 1 in 20 peak day conditions in winter 2012
Solution
The solution to this constraint involves one of three options:
a duplication of the 450 mm Lurgi pipeline, or
a new compressor at the start of the Warragul branch pipeline, or
duplication of the Warragul branch pipeline
Based on current modelling, the preferred solution involves duplicating the 4.7 km, 100 mm diameter
Warragul branch pipeline, using either 100 mm or 150 mm diameter pipe
Timing
Prior to winter 2012, based on a 1 in 20 peak day planning standard, depending on whether the
expected load increase occurs
Trigger Warragul demand growth

Figure 9- 2 shows the schematic of the Warragul constraint.
Figure 9- 2 Warragul Lateral/Lurgi pipeline interconnection

Longford
Jeeralang
Power Stn
Morwell
Gooding
Dandenong
Loy Yang B
Power Stn
Tyers
Vic Hub
Bass Gas
Warragul branch pipeline
Lurgi pipeline
Warragul

Pakenham South excessive gas velocity
Background
The Pakenham South lateral connects to the Lurgi pipeline approximately 28 km east of the Dandenong
City Gate (CG)
Issue
Assessments indicate that, with a significant increase in demand in Pakenham, the smaller diameter
section of the branch experiences excessively high gas velocity
Solution
The pipeline owner has indicated that duplication of the lateral is currently underway, and completion of
the project is expected by the end of May 2010
Timing Required prior to winter 2010 based on a 1 in 20 peak day planning standard
Trigger Pakenham South demand growth, and high gas velocity

Figure 9- 3 shows the schematic of the Pakenham South constraint.
Figure 9- 3 Pakenham Lateral/Lurgi pipeline interconnection

Gippsland Zone - gas 10-year outlook
Table 9-6 lists each supply scenarios impact in terms of the Gippsland Zones 10-year outlook (year
10). See Chapter 8, Section 8.5, for a detailed description of the supply scenarios.
Table 9-6 Gippsland Zone scenario impacts (year 10)
Scenario 1 (LV) Dandenong below minimum operating pressure
Scenario 2 (SW) Dandenong below minimum operating pressure
Scenario 3 (M) Dandenong below minimum operating pressure
Scenario 4 (R) Dandenong below minimum operating pressure
Scenario 5
(exports)
a No impact
b No impact
c No impact
d No impact

Table 9-7 lists the specific Gippsland zone constraints (and the possible network solutions) resulting
from each supply scenario.
Longford
Jeeralang
Morwell
Gooding
Loy Yang B
Tyers
Vic Hub
Bass Gas
Pakenham branch pipeline
Lurgi pipeline
Warragul

Table 9-7 Gippsland Zone constraints (year 10)
Constraint Possible network solution Indicative timing
Dandenong below
minimum operating
pressure with
increased gas DTS
demand
This constraint will occur as a result of Scenario 1,
2, 3, and 4.
At the time new GPG connects to the gas
DTS in the Gippsland and Metropolitan
area, and increased export to New South
Wales to 200 TJ/d via Culcairn
Possible network solutions include:
duplicating the pipeline upstream and downstream
of Gooding Compressor Station, and/or
commissioning the Rockbank to Wollert pipeline to
increase the pressure at Dandenong




9.3.2 South-West Corridor/Western Zone
The South West Corridor links Greater Melbourne and Geelong to the localised high demand centre
of Portland, and ultimately to South Australia (See Chapter 2 for more information about the South
West Corridor and its electrical layout).
The Western Zone connects demand west of Iona to supplies at Iona and to the South West
Pipeline (see Chapter 2 for more information about the Western Transmission System).
This review:
electricity and gas.
South-West Corridor electricity 5-year outlook
The South-West Corridors 5-year outlook (years 1-5) includes the following constraints:
Moorabool-Heywood-Portland 500 kV line voltage unbalance.
Heywood 500/275/22 kV transformer loading.
A detailed assessment of the constraints in the South-West Corridor is also being undertaken as
part of the South Australia-Victoria joint feasibility study.

Moorabool-Heywood-Portland 500 kV line voltage unbalance
Background
The Moorabool-Heywood-Portland 500 kV lines currently have two evenly spaced
transposition points. At each of these transpositions the three phases of each circuit are
rotated to minimise the voltage unbalance between phases, caused by the mutual coupling
between the two parallel circuits
The existing lines were constructed in 1980 to supply the Portland aluminium smelter, and
the transpositions were evenly spaced to adequately reduce the voltage unbalance caused
by the mutual coupling between the two parallel Moorabool-Heywood-Portland 500 kV
circuits
AEMO has received a number of new generation connection applications in the South-West
Corridor, including the new Mortlake GPG. As the level of voltage unbalance is associated
with power flow magnitude and direction, the location and output of new generation
connections have an impact
Potential impact
With installation of the Mortlake GPG and other proposed new connections, the level of
voltage unbalance on the Moorabool-Heywood-Portland 500 kV lines can increase beyond
the allowable limit defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER) during certain outage
conditions
Probability weighted
constraint assessment
Limiting the amount of voltage unbalance below expected levels is an NER requirement.
Constraint equations to limit Mortlake generation under outage conditions, and so the level
of voltage unbalance, have been developed for use in the National Electricity Market
Dispatch Engine (NEMDE). If these constraint equations bind, the resulting value of
constraint due to generation re-scheduling has not yet been calculated
Possible constraint
alleviation options

1. Switched-capacitor with individual phase switching at Heywood or near Alcoa Portland
2. Static VAr Compensator (SVC) or Synchronous Static Compensator (STATCOM)
3. Additional transposition towers along the Moorabool-Heywood 500 kV lines

Economic evaluation of
possible options
An economic evaluation of the possible options has not yet been conducted
Conclusion
AEMO has developed generation dispatch constraint equations to limit Mortlake generation
during certain network outage conditions. When the Mortlake GPG is commissioned, these
constraint equations will be available to be invoked to ensure the level of voltage unbalance
remains within NER limits. Further assessment of the identified options is dependant on
new generation connecting to these lines

Heywood 500/275/22 kV transformer loading
Background
The two Heywood 500/275/22 kV transformers are important elements in the transfer of
power between Victoria and South Australia
The thermal capacity of these transformers may present a limitation at times of high
transfer between the two regions for loss of the parallel transformer
Potential impact
A reduction in transfer capability between Victoria and South Australia may increase
Victorian or South Australian market prices due to the need to dispatch higher-cost plant in
place of reduced power transfers. With prior outage of a Heywood transformer, this may
also lead to load reduction if demand exceeds available generation in a region
The value of this constraint is negligible at present due to other constraints limiting the
power transfer capability between Victoria and South Australia. However, if possible
solutions to increase other transfer limiting constraints are implemented, the value of this
constraint is expected to increase significantly over the period to 2014/15
Possible constraint
alleviation options
A new (third) 500/275/22 kV transformer installation at Heywood Terminal Station, with an
indicative cost of $33 million, individually or in combination with a 500 kV bus-tie installation
at Heywood Terminal Station, which is still to be costed
possible options
AEMO will undertake a detailed assessment of the available network augmentation options
and non-network solutions
Conclusion
AEMO will assess this constraint in detail in conjunction with other interconnector limitations
as part of the VIC-SA joint feasibility study

Figure 9-4 shows the schematic of the constraints identified during the South-West Corridors 5-year
outlook.

Figure 9-4 Voltage unbalance and Heywood transformer loading
Rowville
Keilor Bass Link Loy Yang
Cranbourne
Moorabool Sydenham
Heywood
Portland
South
Morang
Hazelwood
Loy Yang
Mortlake
Possible installation of
additional transposition
towers
individual phase controllable
SVC
Possible installation of Heywood
transformer and 500 kV bus-tie

South-West Corridor electricity 10-year outlook
Table 9-8 lists each supply scenarios impact in terms of the South -West Corridors 10-year outlook
Table 9-8 South-West Corridor supply scenario impacts (year 10)
Scenario 1 (LV,
increased export to
NSW and increased
import from SA)
New generation (wind farm and gas-fired) connection points will be required
New constraint equations for use in AEMOs dispatch process will be required to manage the
anticipated 500 kV voltage unbalance between Moorabool and Portland. Resolving this issue in
the longer term may require additional transposition points on the Moorabool-Heywood 500 kV
lines, one or more static VAr compensators (SVC), or an alternative network solution
A new (third) 275 kV power line from Heywood to South East (South Australia) will be required
A new (third) 500 kV power line from Moorabool to Heywood will be required
A new (third) 500/275 kV transformer at Heywood will be required
New dynamic/static reactive support at or near Heywood will be required to control voltage
stability
Scenario 2
(Increased import
from NSW and
export to SA)
As for scenario 1
Scenario 3 (Metro
and Wind)
Scenario 4 (SW and
increased import
from SA and export
to NSW)
As for scenario 1
Scenario 5
(Increased import
from SA)
A new (third) 500 kV power line from Moorabool to Heywood will be required
A new (third) 275 kV power line from Heywood to South East (South Australia) will be required
A new (third) 500/275 kV transformer at Heywood will be required
New dynamic/static reactive support at or near Heywood will be required to control voltage
stability


Table 9-9 lists the possible South-West Corridor transmission network constraints (and the possible
Table 9-9 South-West Corridor constraints (year 10)
Constraint
Possible network
solution
Cost estimate
($M)
Insufficient
connection
points for
possible wind
farms and GPG
Providing suitable
connection points as
proposed under the new
connection point
provisions outlined in
Chapter 3
Customer
funded and
project specific
At the time of wind
farm and/or GPG
connections
New generation
connections to the
Moorabool-Heywood
500 kV line, as
modelled under
Scenario 1, 2, 3, 4, and
5
Potential risk of
loss of
generation in
excess of 2,000
MW for outage of
a Moorabool-
Heywood 500 kV
line
A new (third) 500 kV
double circuit line from
Moorabool to Heywood
500
At the time of
significant wind farm
and/or GPG
connections
New generation to the
Moorabool-Heywood
500 kV line, as
modelled under
Scenario 4
Overloading of a
275 kV
Heywood-South
East line for
outage of the
parallel line
A new (third) 275 kV line
from Heywood to South
East (South Australia)
121
At the time of
additional power
transfer between
South Australia and
Victoria via Heywood
Increased bi-directional
transfer due to
increased
import/export from/to
South Australia via
Heywood to the South
East, as modelled
under Scenario 2, 4
and 5
Voltage
instability or
collapse
A new 275/11 kV static
VAr compensator (SVC)
(one 200 MVAr) or
modern equivalent plant at
Heywood
87

At the time of
increased power
transfer between
South Australia and
Victoria and
increased wind
generation in the
South-West Corridor
Increased bi-directional
transfer due to
increased
import/export from/to
South Australia via
Heywood to the South
East, or new
generation on the
Moorabool-Heywood
500 kV line, as
modelled under
Scenario 1, 2, 4 and 5

Western Zone gas 5-year outlook
The Western Zones 5-year outlook (years 1-5) includes the following constraints:
Western Transmission System minimum connection pressure breach.


Western Transmission System minimum connection pressure breach
Background
The Western Transmission System (WTS) comprises 220 km of 150 mm diameter pipeline between the
Iona City Gate and the Portland City Gate. It supplies Cobden, Hamilton, Koroit, Portland, and
Warrnambool. New demand at Iluka has the potential to be as large as 1 TJ/d (approximately 6% of the
current winter demand)
Due to higher than average WTS demand growth, pressures at Portland and Hamilton may fall below
the required minimum connection pressures if the pressure at Iona is not adequately maintained
Issue
Assessments indicate that, assuming the maintenance of minimum connection pressure at Iona, a
breach in minimum connection pressure will occur at Portland under 1 in 20 peak day conditions in 2014
Solution
The solution to this constraint involves one of two options:
upgrading the Iona Compressor Station, or
creating a new system injection point south of Hamilton, to allow gas from the SEA Gas pipeline to be
injected into the WTS
These options will maintain minimum delivery pressures for the next 20 years, based on current demand
forecasts. Based on current modelling, the preferred solution to this constraint involves a new system
injection point. This option, though more cost-effective, also gives rise to:
market issues relating to new gas supply arrangements, price, bidding and possibly shipping, and
the need to determine just how much gas can be injected each day
The effect of additional compression at Brooklyn is yet to be investigated
Timing Prior to winter 2014, based on a 1 in 20 peak day planning standard
Trigger No Iona injection and increased demand growth

Figure 9- 5 shows the schematic of the Western Transmission System.
Figure 9- 5 Western Transmission System

Western Zone gas 10-year outlook
No constraints have been identified in the Western Zone for the 10-year outlook (year 10) based on
the current demand forecasts and supply scenarios.

to Adelaide
SEAGas
Iona UGS
Iona
Portland
Iona
from Casino
from Minerva
from Thylacine

Iluka
Hamilton
Cobden
Koroit
Otway


9.3.3 Northern Corridor/Northern Zone
The Northern Corridor includes the Victorian side of the Victoria to New South Wales electrical
interconnection (see Chapter 3 for more information about the Northern Corridor and its electrical
layout), and is designed to enable import from New South Wales plus Murray generation of up to
1,900 MW
40
. Immediately following the loss of one of a number of critical transmission elements,
operating solutions may be triggered that reduce import from New South Wales plus Murray
generation levels to below 1,900 MW.
AEMO is currently undergoing a feasibility study to look at potential options to increase import from
New South Wales into Victoria (focusing on the Snowy Mountains Scheme).
Northern corridor interconnector augmentations require joint planning between AEMO and Transgrid
(the jurisdictional planning body for New South Wales).
The Northern Zone connects the compressor station at Wollert (just north of Melbourne) to the New
South Wales interconnect. The main gas pipeline supplies laterals to Bendigo, Echuca, Koonoomoo
and Wodonga. In recent years, all gas supply for this region has come via Wollert.
This review:
electricity or gas.
Northern Corridor electricity 5-year outlook
The Northern Corridors 5-year outlook (years 1-5) includes the following constraints:
Murray-Dederang 330 kV line loading.
Eildon-Thomastown 220 kV line loading.
Dederang-Mount Beauty 220 kV line loading.
Dederang-South Morang 330 kV line loading.
Dederang 330/220 kV transformer loading.

40
The 1,900 MW level (with import from New South Wales plus Murray generation) assumes system normal
conditions (all transmission elements in service) and an ambient temperature of 40C.

Murray-Dederang 330 kV line loading
Background
The 330 kV transmission lines between Murray and Dederang are key components of the
Victoria to New South Wales electrical interconnection. Loading on these lines defines the
physical MW import from New South Wales plus Murray generation
An outage of either line significantly reduces Victorias:
import from New South Wales plus Murray generation from 1,900 MW by approximately 550
MW, and
export capability to New South Wales by approximately 400 MW
Potential impact
Reduced New South Wales import capability and Murray generation may increase Victorian
market prices due to the need to dispatch higher-cost plant in Victoria, South Australia, and
Tasmania. This may also lead to load reduction if demand exceeds available generation
Reduced export capability to New South Wales may increase market prices in New South
Wales and Queensland, and may also lead to load reduction in those regions if demand
exceeds available generation
AEMOs 2010 assessment estimates the value of this constraint is less than $100,000 per
annum for the period to 2014/15
Possible constraint
alleviation options
Installation of a new (third) 330 kV power line from Murray to Dederang at an indicative cost
of $153 million (excluding easement cost). This option is subject to obtaining the necessary
easement
Installation of a new (second) 330 kV line from Dederang to Jindera at an indicative cost of
$86 million (excluding easement cost). This option requires widening of the existing
easement between Dederang and Jindera. Uprating transmission lines in New South Wales
will also be required
Economic evaluation
of possible options
The market benefits associated with these options are currently insufficient to justify
augmentation
Conclusion
interconnector limitations as part of the Victoria-New South Wales (focussing on the Snowy
Mountains Scheme) feasibility study

Eildon-Thomastown 220 kV line loading
Background
The Eildon-Thomastown 220 kV line is a key component of the connection of Southern Hydro
generation, and the Victoria to New South Wales interconnection. The lines thermal capacity
presents a constraint on Victorian import from New South Wales, Murray generation, and
Southern Hydro generation, which can arise during prior outage of a Dederang-South Morang
330 kV line. In combination with several other constraints, a prior outage of a Dederang-
South Morang line restricts power transfers in the New South Wales (including Murray
generation) to Victoria direction to approximately 1,200 MW
Potential impact
An import capability reduction and constraint on Murray and Southern Hydro generation may
increase Victorian market prices due to the need to dispatch higher-cost plant in Victoria,
South Australia and Tasmania. The dispatch of higher-cost plant would be in place of the
cheaper but constrained-off Murray and Southern Hydro generation plant. This constraint may
also lead to load shedding if demand exceeds available generation
AEMOs 2010 assessment estimates the value of this constraint is less than $100,000 per
annum for the period to 2014/15
Possible constraint
alleviation options
Installation of a dynamic line rating wind monitoring scheme, at an estimated cost of $1.75
million
Uprating the Eildon-Thomastown 220 kV line to 75C operation, at an estimated cost of $44
million
Economic evaluation
of possible options
The market benefits associated with this option are insufficient to justify augmentation
Conclusion
interconnector limitations as part of the Victoria-New South Wales (focussing on the Snowy
Mountains Scheme) feasibility study


Dederang-Mount Beauty 220 kV line loading
Background
The Dederang-Mount Beauty 220 kV line is a key component for the connection of
Kiewa/Eildon area generation and the Victoria to New South Wales interconnector. Loading
of the line impacts Kiewa/Eildon area generation and export from Victoria to New South
Wales. The recent removal of obsolete reactors (line traps), previously used for the old
communications network that has since been upgraded, has increased the line terminations
rating to the point that the conductor is now the limiting plant item
Potential impact
A reduction in Kiewa/Eildon area hydroelectric generation may increase Victorian market
prices due to the need to dispatch higher-cost plant in Victoria and elsewhere in the National
Electricity Market (NEM). The dispatch of higher-cost plant would be in place of the cheaper
but constrained-off Murray and Southern Hydro generation plant
AEMOs 2010 assessment estimates the value of this constraint is approximately $300,000 in
2014/15
Possible constraint
alleviation options
Uprating of the Dederang-Mount Beauty 220 kV line (subject to feasibility)
Economic evaluation
of possible options
The market benefits associated with this option are insufficient to justify significant
augmentation. In particular, if less hydroelectric generation is available from the Kiewa area,
there will be no constraint on this line during periods of import from or low export to New
South Wales
Conclusion
AEMO has assessed the cost-benefits in detail and considers that the market benefits of this
option are currently insufficient to justify augmentation. AEMO will re-assess this constraint at
the time of the additional generation in the Eildon/Kiewa area

Figure 9-6 shows the schematic of the constraints identified during the Northern Corridors 5-year
outlook (featuring the Murray-Dederang 330 kV lines, and the Eildon-Thomastown and Dederang-
Mount Beauty 220 kV lines).
Figure 9-6 Murray-Dederang 330 kV lines/Eildon-Thomastown and Dederang-Mount Beauty
220 kV lines

Thomastown
South
Morang
New South Wales
New South Wales
Wodonga
Dederang
Dartmouth
McKay Creek
Eildon
Mt. Beauty
West Kiewa
a third line
Possible uprating
Possible uprating
a second line

Dederang-South Morang 330 kV line loading
Background
The Dederang-South Morang 330 kV lines are key components of the Northern Victorian
transmission network and the Victoria to New South Wales interconnector. With all plant
in service, the Dederang-South Morang thermal constraint does not normally limit
Victorian import from New South Wales, since the Murray-Dederang 300 kV lines are
the more critical constraint
With prior outage of a South Morang-Dederang line, a number of overlapping Victorian
import constraints apply. These include a voltage collapse and thermal loading on the
Dederang 330/220 kV transformers and the Eildon-Thomastown 220 kV line
See also the constraint reviews in this section for the Dederang 330/220 kV
Transformers and the Eildon-Thomastown 220 kV line
Potential impact
An import capability reduction from New South Wales and Murray generation may
increase Victorian market prices due to the need to dispatch higher-cost plant in
Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania. This may also lead to load shedding if demand
exceeds available generation
An export capability reduction to New South Wales may increase market prices in New
South Wales and Queensland, and may also lead to load shedding in those regions if
demand exceeds available generation
AEMOs 2010 assessment estimates the value of this constraint is less than $100,000
per annum for the period to 2014/15
Possible constraint
alleviation options
Uprate both Dederang-South Morang 330 kV lines to 82
O
C operation, and uprate series
compensation to match the line rating at an indicative cost of $7 million
Install a third Dederang-South Morang 330 kV line, with 50% series compensation to
match the existing lines, at an indicative cost of $330 million (excluding easement costs)
possible options
The market benefits associated with this option are insufficient to justify augmentation
Conclusion
augmentation. However, AEMO will assess this constraint in detail in conjunction with
other interconnector limitations as part of the Victoria-New South Wales (focussing on
the Snowy Mountains Scheme) feasibility study

Figure 9-7 shows a schematic of the constraints identified during the Northern Corridors 5-year
outlook (featuring the Dederang-South Morang 330 kV lines).
Figure 9-7 Dederang-South Morang 330 kV lines
Thomastown
South
Morang
New South Wales
New South Wales
Wodonga
Dederang
Dartmouth
McKay Creek
Eildon
Mt. Beauty
West Kiewa
Possible uprating and
installation of a third
line with 50% series
compensation


Dederang 330/220 kV transformer loading
Background
The three Dederang 330/220 kV transformers are an important source of supply to
Northern Victoria and also carry a portion of Victorian import from New South Wales and
Murray generation
The thermal capacity of these transformers presents a limitation on import from New
South Wales and Murray generation, which may be reduced to (approximately):
anywhere between 100 MW and 1,500 MW, depending on Eildon/Kiewa area
generation, with the prior outage of one Dederang transformer, and
1,200 MW, with all plant in service and no Eildon/Kiewa area generation
With more than approximately 50% of the Eildon/Kiewa area generation dispatched,
transfer levels from New South Wales (including Murray generation) ) to Victoria
nominally increase to 1,900 MW
Potential impact
A reduction in import from New South Wales and Murray generation may increase
Victorian market prices due to the need to dispatch higher cost plant in Victoria, South
Australia and Tasmania. With prior outage of a Dederang transformer, this may also
lead to load shedding if demand exceeds available generation. The dispatch of higher-
cost plant replaces the cheaper but constrained-off Murray generation plant
AEMOs 2010 assessment estimates the value of this constraint is less than $100,000
per annum for the period to 2014/15
Possible constraint
alleviation options
Installation of a fourth 330/220 kV transformer at Dederang at an estimated cost of $22
million
Asset replacement program
coordination
As part of asset refurbishment works, SP AusNet plans to replace the existing 330/220
kV No.1 transformer at Dederang in 2016
possible options
The level of energy at risk does not economically justify the identified works
Conclusion
The market benefits associated with this option are currently insufficient to justify
augmentation and AEMO expects the issue can be economically managed until
completion of SP AusNets asset refurbishment works. However, AEMO will assess this
constraint in detail in conjunction with other interconnector limitations as part of the
Victoria-New South Wales (focussing on the Snowy Mountains Scheme) feasibility study

Figure 9-8 shows a schematic of the constraints identified during the Northern Corridors 5-year
outlook (featuring the Dederang 330/220 kV transformers).
Figure 9-8 Dederang 330/220 kV transformers

Shepparton
Bendigo
Glenrowan
South
Morang
New South Wales
New South Wales
Wodonga
Dederang
Mt. Beauty
Fosterville
Possible installation of a
fourth 330/220 kV transformer

Northern Corridor electricity 10-year outlook
Table 9-10 lists each supply scenarios impact in terms of the Northern Corridors 10-year outlook
Table 9-10 Northern Corridor supply scenario impacts (Year 10)
Supply Scenario Impact
Scenario 1 (LV,
increased export to
NSW and
increased import
from SA)
Increased capacity between Dederang and Mount Beauty will be required
Scenario 2
(Increased import
from NSW and
export to SA)
Increased network element capacities at and around Dederang, to enable increased New South
Wales import, will be required
Additional reactive plant at Wodonga or Dederang will be required to prevent voltage collapse
Scenario 3 (Metro
and Wind)
No impact
Scenario 4 (SW
and increased
import from SA
and export to
NSW)
No impact
Scenario 5
(Increased import
from SA)
No impact

Table 9-11 lists the possible Northern Corridor transmission network constraints (and the possible
Table 9-11 Northern Corridor constraints (year 10)
Cost
estimate
($M)
Voltage
Collapse at
South Morang,
Dederang,
Wodonga and
Jindera
Installing a second 150 MVAr
capacitor bank at Wodonga
9
At the time of increased
import or export from New
South Wales or Snowy
This
constraint
will occur
as a result
of
Increased
import
from /
export to
New South
Wales, as
modelled
under
Scenarios
1 and 2
Upgrading the existing static series
compensation on the South
Morang-Dederang 330 kV lines to
fully controlled series compensation
(FACTS)
35
A new 330/11 kV static VAr
compensator (one +200/-120 MVAr)
or modern equivalent plant
72



Northern Zone gas 5-year outlook
The Northern Zones 5-year outlook (years 1-5) includes the following constraints:
Culcairn demand (exports).
Culcairn (exports)
Background
There is limited capacity to enable exports to New South Wales via the New South Wales Interconnect
at Culcairn, on days of high system demand
Issue
Background issues include the following:
Northern Zone 1 in 2 peak day demand has increased by approximately 34% since 1999, from76
TJ/d to approximately 100 TJ/d, reducing the ability to export gas to New South Wales. In an
average year, 10 TJ/d can be exported via Culcairn for approximately 340 days per year
Northern Zone import-to-export mode changes take advance planning of a day or more (see
Chapter 3, Section 3.7.5, for more information)
Solution
The pipeline owner is augmenting the system by:
increasing the maximum allowable operating pressure (MAOP) from Wollert to Euroa to 8,800 kPa
installing 2 Centaur 50 compressors at Wollert Compressor Station, and
modifying the Springhurst Compressor Station to enable it to compress gas northwards
The augmentations, referred to as the Northern Expansion, will increase export capacity to 28TJ/d on a
1 in 20 peak day in 2010
Timing Currently under construction
Trigger Increased export of gas to New South Wales via Culcairn

Figure 9-9 shows a schematic of the Wollert to Euroa pipeline and the New South Wales
interconnect (Culcairn).
Figure 9-9 Wollert to Euroa pipeline and the New South Wales interconnect (Culcairn)

Echuca
Wollert
Wandong
Clonbinane
Euroa
Springhurst
Koonoomoo
Barnawartha
Wodonga
Culcairn
Typical gas flow
to New South Wales
Shepparton

Northern Zone expansion and export capability through Culcairn
The export capacity to New South Wales varies, depending on the total system demand and gas
DTS operating conditions, such as beginning-of-day conditions and the target minimum pressure at
Culcairn (which is 6,000 kPa).
AEMO carried out modelling on the export capability through Culcairn to determine the relationship
between export and other system factors, and particularly total gas DTS system demand.
AEMOs results show that exports of approximately 28 TJ/d through Culcairn under 1 in 20 peak day
conditions are achievable in 2010 assuming that the Northern zone expansion is complete, with gas
DTS operating boundaries stretched to their minimum limits at the Wollert Compressor Station,
Springhurst Compressor Station, Wandong Regulator and Dandenong City Gate.
Figure 9-10 shows the relationship between Northern Zone exports and total gas DTS system
demand after augmentation, which demonstrates that export capacity increases as system demand
decreases.
Figure 9-10 Northern Zone export vs total system demand

Prior to the Northern Expansion becoming operational, approximately 30-45 TJ/d of LNG is required
to maintain system linepack under 1 in 20 peak day demand conditions. The availability of this
linepack under these conditions is also impacted by gas exports. Usable system linepack within the
Longford, Dandenong and Wollert section of the gas DTS will decrease when gas is exported
through Culcairn (for example, for every 1 TJ of export through Culcairn, system linepack decreases
by approximately 2.5 TJ).
Once the Northern Expansion is complete, introducing more usable linepack, the LNG required to
maintain system linepack will decrease. However, LNG injection remains the most effective way to
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
300 500 700 900 1100 1300
E
x
p
o
r
t

A
m
o
u
n
t

(
T
J
)
Total System Demand (TJ)

compensate for falling linepack, and exports of 28 TJ/d on a 1 in 20 winter peak day will still require
LNG injections.
The export capability to New South Wales through Culcairn will decrease with system demand
growth if there are no further Northern Zone augmentations.
Import capability through Culcairn
AEMO carried out modelling on the import capability through Culcairn to provide information on the
relationship between import and other system factors, and particularly total gas DTS system
demand.
The import capacity via Culcairn varies depending on the total system demand and gas DTS and
Moomba to Sydney Pipeline (MSP) operating conditions. For example, the maximum import
capacity depends on the full availability of the MSP compressor located at Young and import
capacity may be limited when ambient temperature exceeds 30C due to design limitations at the
Springhurst Compressor Station.
Figure 9-11 illustrates the import capacity trend with the Young and Springhurst compressors
compressing southwards.
Figure 9-11 Import capacity trend

Northern Zone gas 10-year outlook
Table 9-12 lists each supply scenarios impact in terms of the Northern Zones 10-year outlook (year
10). See Chapter 8, Section 8.5, for a detailed description of the supply scenarios.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
300 500 700 900 1100 1300
C
u
l
c
a
i
r
n

I
m
p
o
r
t

(
T
J
/
d
)

Table 9-12 - Northern Zone scenario impacts (year 10)
Scenario 1 (LV) Culcairn drops below minimum operating pressure
Scenario 2 (SW) Culcairn drops below minimum operating pressure
Scenario 3 (M) Culcairn drops below minimum operating pressure
Scenario 4 (R) Culcairn drops below minimum operating pressure
Scenario 5
(exports)
a Culcairn drops below minimum operating pressure
b Culcairn drops below minimum operating pressure
c Culcairn drops below minimum operating pressure
d Culcairn drops below minimum operating pressure

Table 9-13 lists the specific Northern Zone constraints (and the possible network solutions) resulting
from each supply scenario.
Table 9-13 Northern Zone constraints (year 10)
Culcairn drops below
minimum operating
pressure with
increased export
demand via Culcairn
This constraint will occur as a result of Scenarios
1, 2, 3, 4, and 5
duplication of the Wodonga pipeline from Wollert
to Barnawartha
Limiting Culcairn exports
When current system can no longer meet
export requirements.


9.3.4 Greater Melbourne and Geelong/Melbourne and Geelong Zones
Greater Melbourne and Geelong form the Victorian transmission networks major electricity and gas
demand centre (see Chapter 3 for more information about the Greater Melbourne and Geelong
region and its electrical and gas layouts). Electrical power flows into the area, mainly from the
Latrobe valley and the Northern Corridor, and limitations can occur as a result of transferring power
from the 500 kV ring to the inner 220 kV mesh, and in some cases along 220 kV lines.
The Melbourne and Geelong Zone gas supply flows into the area primarily from Gippsland, as well
as from Iona (at times of peak demand).
This review:
electricity or gas.
Greater Melbourne and Geelong electricity 5-year outlook
The Greater Melbourne and Geelong 5-year outlook (years 1-5) includes the following constraints:
Eastern metro 500/220 kV transformers and 220 kV line loading.
South Morang 330/220 kV transformer loading.
South Morang 500/330 kV transformer loading.
Double circuit 220 kV line security in the south east metropolitan area.
Rowville-Springvale 220 kV line loading.
Metropolitan 220 kV line rating.
Rowville 220 kV bus fault level.
Metropolitan 220 kV network voltage stability.

Eastern metro 500/220 kV transformers and 220 kV line loading
Background
The eastern metro tie transformers at Cranbourne, Rowville and South Morang limit electricity
supply from the 500 kV and 330 kV electricity transmission networks to the eastern metropolitan
area of Melbourne
In particular, the Cranbourne 500/220 kV transformer and two 220 kV lines from Rowville to East
Rowville supply the load to the connection points at the Cranbourne, East Rowville and Tyabb
Terminal Stations and the Western Port (JLA) sub-station in the south eastern metropolitan area
A prior outage of the Cranbourne 500/220 kV transformer can limit the load supplied to these
connection points at times of high load
Potential impact
Overloading of the Cranbourne transformer only occurs during peak demand conditions and if a
critical network element is out of service. Following an outage of the Cranbourne transformer (or
another credible contingency), the Rowville-East Rowville 220 kV lines can be overloaded,
requiring the load supplied to the Cranbourne, East Rowville and Tyabb Terminal Stations, and the
JLA sub-station to be constrained
With all plant in service, load reduction is not required to maintain the loading of the transformers
and lines within their thermal capacities
Following a critical network outage, peak load reduction is forecast during summer peak demand at
the Cranbourne, East Rowville and/or Tyabb terminal stations and/or the JLA sub-station of
approximately 150 MW in 2013/14, increasing to approximately 250 MW in 2014/15
Under system normal conditions, a Rowville A1 500/220 kV transformer overload is forecast during
summer peak demand by approximately 2014/15, requiring a peak load reduction at Springvale,
Heatherton, Malvern and/or Richmond of approximately 25 MW
Following a critical network outage during summer peak demand, load reduction at Springvale,
Heatherton, Malvern and/or Richmond is forecast to be approximately 300 MW in 2010/11, 500
MW in 2012/13 and 700 MW in 2014/15
Further to this, following an outage of the Rowville A1 transformer (or a credible contingency), the
A2 transformer at Rowville and the transformers at Cranbourne and South Morang can be
overloaded and load supplied to Templestowe and Ringwood may also need to be constrained to
avoid overloading the Thomastown-Templestowe and Thomastown-Ringwood 220kV transmission
lines
Despite the forecast peak load reduction levels, both the Cranbourne and Rowville transformers
remain within their short-term ratings, so generation rescheduling and/or demand curtailment is
restricted to a few hours during an unplanned network outage
Probability
weighted
constraint
assessment
AEMOs 2010 assessment estimates the value of the Cranbourne transformer constraint is less
then $100,000 per annum
The value of the Rowville transformer constraint is approximately $500,000 in 2014/15
Possible
constraint
alleviation
options
A second 500/220 kV transformer at Cranbourne with an indicative cost of $56 million and any fault
level mitigation works
A second 500/220 kV transformer at Rowville, Ringwood or Templestowe and an upgrade of the
Rowville-East Rowville and Cranbourne-East Rowville 220 kV lines with an indicative cost between
$45 million and $143 million, plus any fault level mitigation works
Non-network solutions (demand-side participation and/or new generation)
Economic
evaluation of
possible options
AEMO will undertake a detailed assessment of the available network augmentation options and
non-network solutions
Conclusion
AEMO has identified that further assessment of the cost-benefits and timing of the potential
solutions is required

South Morang 330/220 kV transformer loading
Background
The South Morang 330/220 kV transformers form part of the New South Wales to Victoria
interconnector and metropolitan tie transformers
With all plant in service, the South Morang 330/220 kV thermal constraint does not limit Victorian
imports from New South Wales and Murray generation. With prior outage of a South Morang
330/220 kV transformer, imports from New South Wales and Murray generation are reduced to
approximately 1,500 MW
Potential impact
Reduced imports from New South Wales and Murray generation may increase Victorian market
prices due to the need to dispatch higher-cost plant in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. The
dispatch of higher-cost plant replaces the cheaper but constrained-off Murray generation plant.
With prior outage of a South Morang 330/220 kV transformer, this may also lead to load reduction
if demand exceeds available generation

Probability
weighted
constraint
assessment
AEMOs 2010 assessment estimates the value of this constraint is less then $100,000 per annum
Possible
constraint
alleviation
options
A new (third) 330/220 kV transformer at South Morang at an indicative cost of $24 million and any
fault level mitigation works
A new 500/220 kV transformer at South Morang, with an indicative cost of $45 million plus any fault
Replacement of 330/220 kV transformers at South Morang with higher rated transformers
Non-network solutions (demand-side participation and new generation)
Asset
replacement
program
coordination
SP AusNet plans to replace the existing 330/220 kV No.1 transformer at South Morang in 2010
and the No.2 transformer around 2017. As part of this asset refurbishment AEMO will assess the
cost-benefits of replacing the existing 330/220 kV transformers with higher rated transformers
Economic
evaluation of
possible options
AEMO will undertake a detailed assessment of the available network augmentation options and
non-network solutions
Conclusion
AEMO has commenced detailed assessment of the cost-benefits. Assessment of this constraint
will be finalised with the updated demand forecasts and AEMO will continue to coordinate with SP
AusNet regarding their asset replacement program

Background
The South Morang 500/330 kV transformer forms part of the New South Wales to Victoria
interconnector. Power flow through the South Morang transformer can limit Victorian export
capability to New South Wales under low Victorian demand conditions, such as overnight when
Victorian base load generation is supporting high export to New South Wales
Potential impact
Overloading of the South Morang 500/330kV transformer can occur during low demand conditions,
with all plant in service. NEMDE currently utilises pre-contingent constraints to avoid overloading
this transformer at times of high export to New South Wales. In the 2009 calendar year this
constraint was identified as limiting Victoria to New South Wales export for approximately 480
hours
Reduced export capability to New South Wales may increase market prices due to generation
rescheduling in New South Wales and Queensland, and may also lead to load reduction in those
regions if demand exceeds available generation
Probability
weighted
constraint
assessment
AEMOs 2010 assessment estimates the value of this constraint is less then $100,000 per annum
as the constraint is historically associated primarily with generation rescheduling, as opposed to
load reduction
Possible
constraint
alleviation
options
A new (second) 500/330 kV transformer at South Morang at an indicative cost of $46 million plus
any fault level mitigation works
A new 500/220 kV transformer at South Morang at an indicative cost of $45 million plus any fault
Non-network solutions (demand-side participation and new generation)
Economic
evaluation of
possible options
The market benefits associated with these options are currently insufficient to justify augmentation
Conclusion
As the market benefits associated with these options are currently insufficient to justify
augmentation, AEMO will assess this constraint in detail in conjunction with other interconnector
limitations as part of the Victoria-New South Wales (focussing on the Snowy Mountains Scheme)
feasibility study

Figure 9-12 shows a schematic of the constraints identified during the Greater Melbourne and
Geelong Corridors 5-year outlook (featuring the metro transformers).

Figure 9-12 Metro transformers
Rowville
Brunswick
West
Melbourne
Malvern
Richmond
Springvale
Ringwood
Templestowe
Heatherton
East Rowville
Cranbourne
Tyabb
Western Port
Thomastown
Fishermans
Bend
Newport
Altona
Brooklyn
Geelong
Point Henry
Anglesea
Moorabool Sydenham
South
Morang
Possible 500/220 kV transformer
Keilor
Possible 330/220 kV
500/330 kV or 500/220 kV
transformer
Possible 500/220 kV
transformer


Double circuit 220 kV line security in the south east metropolitan area
Background
Radially-configured double-circuit 220 kV lines supply the Springvale, Heatherton, Malvern
and Tyabb Terminal Stations, and the JLA sub-station. Failure of one or more of the radial
lines towers can cause considerable loss of supply to any one of these areas
United Energy Distribution (UED) forecasts that a new terminal station in the Dandenong
area, supplied from the 220 kV network, may be needed as early as 2020. A new
transmission line is proposed to address security of supply and to provide a connection
point for the new terminal station
Potential impact
An unplanned outage of any of these double-circuit lines will result in total loss of supply to
the relevant terminal station. A Rowville-Springvale line tower failure can result in over 900
MW of load shedding for an extended period of time. However, a portion of load can be
supplied from nearby terminal stations via emergency distribution network rearrangements
taking anywhere from minutes to hours to implement
AEMOs 2010 estimate of the value of this potential loss of load is approximately $58 million
over 30 years, reduced to $36 million by utilisation of existing emergency arrangements.
AEMO is in discussions with distribution businesses to determine the value of any additional
limitations on supplying future load growth in the south eastern metropolitan area
Possible constraint
alleviation options
An overhead 220 kV line from Cranbourne Terminal Station to Heatherton Terminal Station
at an indicative cost of $80 million, subject to procuring an easement for overhead line
construction
A 220 kV underground cable from Cranbourne Terminal Station to Heatherton Terminal
Station at an indicative cost of up to $673 million, including 10 km of tunnelling
A 220 kV underground cable between Heatherton and Malvern terminal stations with an
indicative cost of $370 million, including 8 km of tunnelling
Option 1 secures Springvale and Heatherton area loads against double-circuit line outages
and establishes a new Dandenong Terminal Station to securely supply the rapidly growing
Dandenong area load
Options 2 and 3 supply less than 85% of peak load at Springvale and Heatherton Terminal
Stations during a Rowville-Springvale double-circuit outage, but do not supply the new
Dandenong Terminal Station
possible options
AEMO is in discussions with distribution businesses to determine the relative market
benefits, including the assessed value of possibly being able to procure an overhead line
easement immediately, due to community developments utilising currently undeveloped
land
Conclusion
AEMO proposes further joint planning with distribution businesses to identify all the options
and to undertake a detailed assessment of the constraint and market benefits. An initial
joint planning consultancy study has now been completed so further joint planning can
continue

Rowville-Springvale 220 kV line loading
Background
Springvale and Heatherton Terminal Stations are supplied at 220 kV by a radial double-
circuit line from Rowville Terminal Station. In recent years, installation of a wind monitoring
scheme and a line upgrade has increased the line capability. Expected increases in load
growth in the Springvale and Heatherton areas will lead to further increases in loading of the
Rowville-Springvale 220 kV line for the forecast period and beyond
Potential impact
The Rowville-Springvale lines ability to supply the Springvale and Heatherton loads is
expected to reach its thermal limit as soon as 2012/13
Following an outage of a Rowville-Springvale 220 kV circuit (to avoid overloading the parallel
circuit), during the equivalent of a summer:
10% POE maximum demand (MD) and 1.2 m/s wind speed, approximately 3 MWh of load is
at risk in 2014/15, and
5% POE MD and 1.2 m/s wind speed, approximately 19 MWh of load is at risk in 2012/13,
increasing to approximately 70 MWh in 2014/15
AEMOs constraint value estimate is negligible within the forecast period to 2014/15

Rowville-Springvale 220 kV line loading
Possible constraint
alleviation options
All of the network options referred to in the 5-year outlook constraint issue involving double
circuit 220 kV line security in the south east metropolitan area
Replacement of a Rowville-Springvale circuit with high capacity (high temperature)
conductors
Demand-side management and/or new generation connected to Springvale and/or
Heatherton Terminal Station
Economic evaluation
of possible options
The market benefits associated with these options are insufficient to justify network
augmentation
Conclusion
AEMO has assessed the cost-benefits in detail and considers that the market benefits of
these potential options are currently insufficient to justify augmentation. AEMO will re-assess
this constraint a the time of increased load at the Springvale and/or Heatherton terminal
stations

Metropolitan 220 kV line loading
Background
Most of the terminal stations in the Melbourne metropolitan area are supplied from 220 kV
transmission lines. The loading on these lines is forecast to increase with increased load
growth in the metropolitan area, and the outage of one or more is likely to overload the
parallel transmission circuit or the remaining transmission circuit connected to the terminal
stations at times of both high demand and high ambient temperature
Transmission line thermal capabilities increase with wind speed due to the cooling effect of
the wind over the conductor. Wind monitoring stations at appropriate locations help
determine real-time wind speeds so that they can be combined with already monitored real-
time ambient temperatures to calculate real-time thermal capabilities
Potential impact
An outage of a 220 kV transmission line in the metropolitan area may require up to a 160
MW (approximately) load reduction in the Melbourne metropolitan area. The location and
amount of load reduction depends on the location of the outage and the ambient temperature
AEMOs 2010 assessment estimates that the value of this constraint is approximately $7,000
in 2010/11, increasing to approximately $145,000 in 2018/19
Possible constraint
alleviation options
1. Install wind monitoring schemes for the identified transmission lines to take advantage
of higher wind speeds on hot summer days, and better utilisation of the existing assets,
at an indicative cost of $0.35 million per monitoring station unit
2. Uprating and/or replacing a number of 220 kV transmission lines
3. Demand-side options and/or connection of new local generation at a number of terminal
stations in the metropolitan area
Economic evaluation
of possible options
The market benefits assessment shows that installing wind monitoring schemes for the
identified 220 kV transmission lines is a likely option in around 2016 if achievable with one
additional monitoring station
Conclusion
AEMO completed a detailed assessment of the possible options and considers that
installation of a wind monitoring scheme is a likely option to address a number of thermal line
constraints. AEMO will monitor the 220 kV line loading with increasing Melbourne
metropolitan load growth, with the likely result being installation of a new wind monitoring
station by around 2016.



Rowville 220 kV bus fault level
Background
Rowville Terminal Station is connected to the 500 kV and 220 kV transmission networks in
Melbournes south east metropolitan area. Its roles include:
switching 500 kV and 220 kV lines to the Latrobe Valley, and in the metropolitan
(500 kV and 220 kV) rings
supplying bulk power between these rings via its two 1,000 MVA 500/220 kV
transformers, and
supplying bulk power to a number of directly-connected terminal stations
Rowville Terminal Station usually operates with its four 220 kV buses connected as two
groups, with:
buses 1 and 2 tied, and
buses 3 and 4 tied
The two groups are tied via remote 220 kV terminal stations and the 500 kV network.
Rowville 220 kV fault levels have increased with power system development over time, with
bus 1-2 fault levels leading bus 3-4 fault levels
Buses 1-2 and connected plant were augmented to be capable of withstanding the increased
the fault levels caused by connection of the second Rowville 500/220 kV transformer. Under
a particular network switching configuration, fault levels where previously reported as
approaching the fault level withstand capability of the No.3 and No.4 220 kV bus bars at
Rowville
After a detailed assessment, however, SP AusNet has since advised that the fault withstand
capability of these busbars, including supports and foundations, are sufficient to meet the
forecast fault levels for the foreseeable future
This revised fault withstand capability is subject to replacement of a small number of bus
support insulators in addition to SP AusNets asset refurbishment planned for this station

Potential impact
Plant is operated, as planned; within its fault withstand capability. At times of high demand
and generation, and with increased levels of Victorian generation, the existing fault ratings
may require network reconfiguration, increasing the probability of constraining generation
and/or load shedding following an unplanned transmission element outage
AEMO has not undertaken a probability weighted assessment of the options to alleviate the
plant limitations identified, as an option with negligible costs now exists
Possible constraint
alleviation options
Replacement of bus support insulators at negligible cost
Interim switching to reduce the fault level prior to implementation of Option 1
Asset replacement
program coordination
SP AusNet plans to replace a number of 220 kV switch bays at Rowville Terminal Station
from 2010-2013. AEMO is coordinating with SP AusNet to ensure that the replacement
plants ratings are increased and to minimise the cost of the long-term option
Economic evaluation
of possible options
Due to the negligible cost, in addition to SP AusNets asset refurbishment works, AEMO
considers the replacement of additional bus support isolators is economically justified
Conclusion
AEMO will continue to consult with SP AusNet to ensure 220 kV switch bay replacements,
including bus support insulators, are adequately rated to withstand the forecast fault levels

Figure 9-13 shows a schematic of the constraints identified during the Greater Melbourne and
Geelong Corridors 5-year outlook (featuring the Double circuit 220 kV line security in the south east
metropolitan area/Rowville-Springvale 220 kV line loading/wind monitoring schemes/Rowville 220
kV bus fault level).

Figure 9-13 Double circuit 220 kV line security in the south east metropolitan area/Rowville-
Springvale 220 kV line loading/wind monitoring schemes/Rowville 220 kV bus fault level

Greater Melbourne and Geelong electricity 10-year outlook
Table 9-14 lists each supply scenarios impact in terms of the Greater Melbourne and Geelong 10-
year outlook (year 10). See Chapter 8, Section 8.4, for a detailed description of the supply
scenarios.
Table 9-14 - Greater Melbourne and Geelong supply scenario impacts (year 10)
Scenario 1 (LV,
increased export to
NSW and increased
import from SA)
Increased network element capacities around the major power inflows to Rowville, South
Morang, Keilor, and Moorabool will be required. At some locations, security of supply also
becomes an issue
Other requirements include: new terminal stations for 220/66 kV transformation; upgraded
reactive support to maintain voltage levels within limits and to prevent voltage collapse; and
improved fault-level management
Increased South Morang 500/330 kV transformation capacity will be required
Scenario 2
(Increased import
from NSW and
export to SA)
becomes an issue
Additional South Morang 330/220 kV transformation, and increased Thomastown-South Morang
220 kV line capacity, will be required
Scenario 3 (Metro
and Wind)
becomes an issue
Rowville
Brunswick
Malvern
Richmond
Springvale
Ringwood
Templestowe
Heatherton
East Rowville
Cranbourne
Tyabb
Western Port
Thomastown
Radially configured 220 kV
double circuit lines
Possible uprating of 220 kV
no.s 3 & 4 buses

Scenario 4 (SW and
increased import
from SA and export
to NSW)
becomes an issue
Increased South Morang 500/330 kV transformation capacity will be required
Scenario 5
(Increased import
from SA)
becomes an issue

Table 9-15 lists the possible Greater Melbourne and Geelong transmission network constraints (and
the possible network solutions) resulting from each supply scenario.
Table 9-15 Greater Melbourne and Geelong constraints (year 10)
Constraint
Possible network
solution
Cost estimate
($M)
Outage of a
Rowville-Malvern
220 kV line and
overloading of the
parallel line

Uprating the Rowville-
Malvern 220 kV line to
82C
16
At the time of
significant
permanent load
transfer from
Richmond to Malvern
This constraint will
occur as a result of
increased demand
at Malvern
Terminal Station,
as modelled under
all scenarios
Cut-in Rowville-Richmond
220 kV lines at Malvern
Terminal Station
30
Feasibility in respect
to fault levels to be
investigated

Outage of
Rowville-
Ringwood 220 kV
line overloads the
Thomastown-
Ringwood 220 kV
line
Cut-in existing
Thomastown-Templestowe
220 kV line at Ringwood.
5
At the time of
significant increased
Melbourne
metropolitan area
load, estimated to be
approximately 2015
increased demand
in the Melbourne
metropolitan area,
as modelled under
all scenarios
Outage of a South
Morang-
Thomastown 220
kV line and
overloading of the
parallel line

Cut into the existing
Rowville-Thomastown 220
kV line into the South
Morang 220 kV bus to form
a third South Morang-
Thomastown 220 kV line
8
At the time of
increased power
transfer from New
South Wales
This constraint is
caused by
increased
Melbourne
metropolitan area
demand and/or
increased import
from New South
Wales, as
modelled under all
scenarios
Cut into the existing
Eildon-Thomastown 220
kV line into the South
Morang 220 kV bus to form
a fourth South Morang-
Thomastown 220 kV line
7
At the time of
increased power
transfer from New
South Wales
Unable to maintain
network voltage
levels and voltage
stability

A 220 kV switched shunt
capacitor at Cranbourne
7.3
At the time of
increased Melbourne
metropolitan load
occur on a
locational basis
due to increased
demand in the
Melbourne
metropolitan area,
as modelled under
all scenarios
Dynamic reactive power
plant

Power factor correction at
the point of connection by
the connected parties

Increase in fault
Operational arrangements Needs driven

Constraint
Possible network
solution
Cost estimate
($M)
levels
Series reactor installation
occur due to
increased demand
and/or new
generation in the
Melbourne
metropolitan area
Switchgear replacement

Melbourne and Geelong Zone gas 5-year outlook
The Melbourne and Geelong Zone 5-year outlook (years 1-5) includes the following constraints:
South West Pipeline (SWP) and system capacity.
South West Pipeline (SWP) and system capacity
Background
The commissioning of the BLP pipeline has increased system capacity from Iona to Brooklyn. However,
with increased demand from new GPG and increased export to Culcairn, greater deliverability and
system linepack will be required
AEMOs modelling indicates that a Stonehaven compressor will increase system capacity by
approximately 46 TJ/d under normal operating conditions, but will only marginally increase system
linepack, which is insufficient for peak day requirements. However, at different operating conditions, this
increase in capacity can vary
Issue Insufficient system capacity and linepack will result in the curtailment of demand
Solution
Based on current modelling, a preferred solution to this constraint involves constructing a compressor
station at Stonehaven
A new Centaur 50 compressor at Stonehaven will increase SWP capacity by approximately 46TJ/d.
However, the available SWP capacity depends upon the systems operating pressure
Timing
Timing of the new compressor station is contingent upon the timing and location of a major new GPG
connection to the gas DTS, together with increased export requirements through Culcairn
Based on currently available information, modelling shows the solution is likely to be required by winter
2012
Trigger
Triggers include: the commissioning of a new GPG; exports of gas to New South Wales via Culcairn;
increased existing GPG demand; and increased system demand during peak times

Figure 9-14 shows the range of SWP capacities, based on pressure at Iona and demonstrates the
SWP capacity with and without operation of a Stonehaven compressor. Figure 9-14 also shows the
SWP capacity at three different gas DTS demand levels: 1200 TJ/d, 1293 TJ/d and 1307 TJ/d.


Figure 9-14 South West Pipeline capacities with the addition of a compressor at Stonehaven

Figure 9-15 shows the schematic of the South West Pipeline (Stonehaven).
Figure 9-15 South West Pipeline (Stonehaven)

383
(1200)
399
(1200)
418
(1200)
337
(1200)
353
(1200)
372
(1200)
402
(1293)
357
(1293)
423
(1307)
376
(1307)
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
8800 9000 9200 9400 9600 9800 10000 10200
S
W
P

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

(
T
J
/
d
)
Maximum Iona Pressure (kPa)
With Stonehaven
Without Stonehaven
SWP Capacity (TJ/d)
Total System Demand
(TJ/d)
Melbourne
Docklands
Brooklyn
to Adelaide
Lara SWP
Geelon
SEAGas
Iona UGS
Iona
Iona
from Casino
from Minerva
Laverton North

Stonehaven

Otway
Melbourne
Docklands
Brooklyn
to Adelaide
Lara SWP
Geelong
SEAGas
Iona UGS
Iona
Ion
from Casino
from Minerva
Laverton North

Stonehaven

Otway

Melbourne and Geelong Zone gas 10-year outlook
Table 9-16 lists each supply scenarios impact in terms of the Melbourne and Geelong Zone 10-year
outlook (year 10). See Chapter 8, Section 8.5, for a detailed description of the supply scenarios.
Table 9-16 Melbourne and Geelong Zone supply scenario impacts (year 10)
Scenario 1 (LV) South West Pipeline capacity is constrained by its maximum operating pressure
Scenario 2 (SW) South West Pipeline capacity is constrained by its maximum operating pressure
Scenario 3 (M) South West Pipeline capacity is constrained by its maximum operating pressure
Scenario 4 (R) South West Pipeline capacity is constrained by its maximum operating pressure
Scenario 5
(exports)
a Brooklyn to Lara Pipeline City Gate (CG) inlet pressure below minimum operating pressure
b Brooklyn to Lara Pipeline City Gate (CG) inlet pressure below minimum operating pressure
c Brooklyn to Lara Pipeline City Gate (CG) inlet pressure below minimum operating pressure
d Brooklyn to Lara Pipeline City Gate (CG) inlet pressure below minimum operating pressure

Table 9-17 lists the specific Melbourne and Geelong Zone constraints (and the possible network
solutions) resulting from each supply scenario.
Table 9-17 Melbourne and Geelong Zone constraints (year 10)
South West
Pipeline capacity is
constrained by its
maximum operating
pressure while
flowing from Iona to
Melbourne, and its
minimum pressure
while flowing from
Melbourne to Iona
This constraint will occur as a result of
Scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4

Commissioning the Rockbank to Wollert
pipeline
1

Duplication of the pipeline between Iona and
Stonehaven
Duplication of the pipeline between Stonehaven
and Lara
Installation of a compressor station at Rockbank
to compress gas towards Iona
Upgrade of a Wollert compressor to enable gas
compression toward Iona
When Iona injects more than 400 TJ/d and/or
when new GPG (CCGT) connects to the DTS
in the Gippsland and Metropolitan area

When a large amount of flow from Melbourne
to Iona is required (e.g. 80TJ/d export to
South Australia)
Brooklyn to Lara
Pipeline City Gate
(CG) inlet pressure
below minimum
operating pressure
with increased
export to South
Australia
This constraint will occur as a result of Scenario
5
duplicating the pipeline upstream and
downstream of Gooding Compressor Station,
and
commissioning the Rockbank to Wollert
pipeline, and
a new compressor at Wollert compressing gas
towards Iona
At the time new GPG connects to the gas
DTS, and increased export to New South
Wales to 200 TJ/d and South Australia to
80 TJ/d
1. Under certain operating conditions (e.g. high injection from Iona and low injection from Longford on a low demand
day), the Rockbank to Wollert link is required. This requirement supports commissioning of the link as soon as possible
(within 5 years).


9.3.5 Regional Victoria/Ballarat Zone
Regional Victoria forms an electrical area of long distance, lower-capacity lines that deliver energy to
provincial cities and regional load centres (see Chapter 2 for more information about Regional
Victoria and its electrical layout). Regional Victorias lines provide a path for energy imported from
New South Wales to the main demand centre of Greater Melbourne and Geelong. This path runs
parallel to the Northern Corridor, which carries the bulk of that energy. Regional Victoria also
provides links to South Australia via the Murraylink HVDC interconnector at Red Cliffs. As a
consequence, limitations in the area not only arise from load growth at its terminal stations, but also
from the bulk transfer of energy across the region under certain system conditions.
The Ballarat Zone connects the Bendigo lateral to Brooklyn via the Bendigo lateral. This allows gas
supply to this region to flow from Brooklyn at times of peak demand.
This review:
electricity or gas.
Regional Victoria electricity 5-year outlook
The Regional Victoria 5-year electricity outlook (years 1-5) includes the following constraints:
Ballarat-Bendigo 220 kV line loading.
Ballarat-Moorabool 220 kV line loading.
Moorabool-Geelong 220 kV line loading.
Ballarat-Bendigo 220 kV line loading
Background
The Ballarat -Bendigo 220 kV line forms one of the main supply routes into North Western
Victoria and South Australia, via the Murraylink DC interconnector at Red Cliffs, and on to
South Western New South Wales
Loading of the line presents a thermal constraint during system normal conditions in
preparation for loss of the Ballarat-Horsham 220 kV line or the Bendigo-Fosterville-
Shepparton 220 kV line
The impact of this constraint will increase with load growth in North Western Victoria.
A wind monitoring scheme for this line is currently being installed and will reduce the impact
of the constraint
Potential impact
Given the simultaneous occurrence of peak demand and high ambient temperatures, an
unplanned transmission circuit outage of either the Ballarat-Horsham 220 kV line or the
Bendigo-Fosterville-Shepparton 220 kV line may require load reduction in North Western
Victoria to prevent thermal overload of the Ballarat-Bendigo 220 kV line
During peak summer demand, forecast load reduction is approximately 50 MW in 2010/11,
70 MW in 2010/13, and 70 MW in 2014/15
AEMOs 2010 constraint assessment estimates that the value of this constraint is $5 million
in 2014/15
Possible constraint
alleviation options
Uprating the Ballarat-Bendigo 220 kV line to 75C operation at an estimated cost of $28
million
possible options
The market benefits associated with this constraint show that a detailed assessment of the
constraint is required
Conclusion
AEMO will perform a detailed assessment of the constraint and possible solutions
while ensuring completion of the new wind monitoring scheme to utilise increased
line capability during high wind conditions


Figure 9-16 shows a schematic of the constraints identified during the Regional Victoria 5-year
outlook (featuring the Ballarat-Bendigo 220 kV line).
Figure 9-16 Ballarat-Bendigo 220 kV line

Ballarat-Moorabool 220 kV line loading
Background
The two Moorabool-Ballarat 220 kV circuits form one of the main supply routes into North
Western Victoria. These circuits also form part of the supply into South Australia, via the
Murraylink DC interconnector at Red Cliffs, and into South Western New South Wales
A wind monitoring scheme, commissioned in September 2006, allows additional thermal
line capacity to be utilised at times of increased wind, thereby reducing any thermal
limitation in the short term. However, increased load growth, above the level of any new
local generation, has led to increased line loading over time
Potential impact
Given the simultaneous occurrence of high demand in North Western Victoria and high
ambient temperatures, a single unplanned transmission circuit outage can result in export
to South Australia (via Murraylink) falling to zero, and a reduction of export to (or an
increase in import from) New South Wales, and load reduction in North Western Victoria
During peak summer demand, forecast load reduction is approximately 40 MW in 2010/11,
60 MW in 2010/13, and 80 MW in 2014/15
AEMOs 2010 constraint assessment estimates that the value of this constraint is $5 million
in 2014/15
Possible constraint
alleviation options
Uprating the Moorabool-Ballarat No. 1 circuit to 75C operation, at an estimated cost of
$23.4 million
Uprating the Moorabool-Ballarat No. 1 circuit to 82C operation, at an estimated cost of
$25.6 million (or $5 million after option 1)
Installing a third Moorabool-Ballarat circuit, at an estimated cost of $21 million (the new line
will be strung on the existing Moorabool-Ballarat No.2 line)
possible options
The market benefits associated with this constraint show that a detailed assessment of the
constraint is required
Conclusion AEMO will perform a detailed assessment of the constraint and possible solutions

outlook (featuring the Ballarat-Moorabool 220 kV line).
Moorabool
Ballarat
Horsham
Kerang
Bendigo
Red Cliffs
Shepparton
Glenrowan
South Australia
New South Wales
Dederang
Fosterville
Possible uprating of the line

Figure 9-17 Ballarat-Moorabool 220 kV line

Geelong-Moorabool 220 kV line loading
Background
Loads at Geelong Terminal Station and the Point Henry Smelter are supplied by two
Geelong-Moorabool 220 kV circuits, three Geelong-Keilor 220 kV circuits, and local
generation from the Anglesea Power Station
Due to the large demand at Geelong and Point Henry, the 220 kV circuits are heavily
loaded and may reach their thermal limit during high demand high temperature conditions
or during an outage of one of the parallel circuits
Potential impact
During peak summer demand, under system normal conditions the forecast load reduction
(at the Geelong Terminal Station or the Point Henry Smelter) is approximately 150 MW in
2014/15
AEMOs 2010 constraint assessment estimates that the value of this constraint is $1.5
million in 2014/15
Possible constraint
alleviation options
Uprating the Geelong-Moorabool 220 kV line terminations to match the conductor rating, at
an estimated cost of $5 million
New double circuit Geelong-Moorabool 220 kV line installation (with a conductor
temperature of 82C), at an estimated cost of $21 million
possible options
The market benefits associated with this constraint show that a detailed assessment is
required and that replacement of line terminations is justifiable
Conclusion AEMO will perform a detailed assessment of the constraint and possible solutions

outlook (featuring the Geelong-Moorabool 220 kV line).
Moorabool
Ballarat
Horsham
Kerang
Bendigo
Red Cliffs
Shepparton
Glenrowan
South Australia
New South Wales
Dederang
Fosterville
Possible uprating of No. 1 circuit or
installation of a third line

Figure 9-18 Geelong-Moorabool 220 kV line

Regional Victoria electricity 10-year outlook
Table 9-18 lists each supply scenarios impact in terms of the Regional Victoria 10-year outlook
(year 10). See Chapter 8, Section 8.4, for a more detailed description of the supply scenarios.
Table 9-18 Regional Victoria supply scenario impacts (year 10)
Scenario 1 (LV,
increased export
to NSW and
increased import
from SA
Increased line capacities in the loop running parallel to the Northern Corridor (Moorabool to
Dederang via Bendigo) will be required. Other requirements include: new terminal stations to
meet load growth; improved reactive support to maintain voltage levels within limits and to prevent
voltage collapse; and improved fault-level management
Increased line capacities (specifically involving the No.1 Moorabool-Ballarat 220 kV and Mount
Beauty-Dederang 220 kV lines) will be required
Scenario 2
(Increased import
from NSW and
export to SA)
Scenario 3 (Metro
and Wind)
Increased line capacities in a number of 220 kV lines in Western and South Western Victoria will
be required. Other requirements include: new terminal stations to connect wind farms and meet
load growth; improved static and dynamic reactive support to maintain voltage stability and
voltage levels within limits; and improved fault-level management
Scenario 4 (SW
and increased
import from SA
and export to
NSW)
Scenario 5
(Increased import
from SA)

Table 9-19 lists the possible Regional Victoria transmission network constraints (and the possible

Keilor
Geelong
Point Henry
Anglesea
Moorabool Sydenham
South
Morang
Terang
Ballarat
Possible upgrading of 220 kV
line terminations

Table 9-19 Regional Victoria constraints (year 10)
Cost
estimate
($M)
Indicative
timing
Trigger
Bendigo-
Fosterville-
Shepparton
lines overload
for numerous
outages
1

Uprating the Bendigo-Shepparton
220 kV line to 90C
25

Approximately
2017 or at the
time of increased
import from New
South Wales
increased demand
in regional Victoria
and/or increased
import from New
South Wales, as
modelled under all
scenarios
Installing a phase angle regulating
transformer on the Bendigo-
46

A new double circuit Bendigo-
Shepparton 220 kV line conductor
temperature 82C
183

Ballarat-
Horsham 220
kV line overload
for numerous
outages
1

Uprating the Ballarat-Horsham 220
kV line terminations to match the
conductor rating

1.2
At the time of
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
(Scenario 3)
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria,
as modelled under
Scenario 3
A new double circuit Ballarat-
Waubra-Horsham-Redcliffs 220 kV
line conductor temperature 82C
694
A new Ballarat-Horsham Cliffs 500
kV line initially operating at 220 kV

Ballarat-Terang
220 kV line
overload for
outage of the
Moorabool-
Terang line
Uprating the Ballarat-Terang 220 kV
lines conductor temperature to 82C
70

At the time of
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
(Scenario 3)
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria,
as modelled under
Scenario 3
A new double circuit Ballarat-Terang
220 kV line conductor temperature
82C
180
At the time of
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
(Scenario 3)
Moorabool-
Terang 220 kV
line overload for
outage of the
Ballarat-Terang
line
Uprating the Moorabool-Terang 220
kV lines conductor temperature to
82C
70
At the time of
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
(Scenario 3)
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria,
as modelled under
Scenario 3
A new double circuit Moorabool-
Terang 220 kV line conductor
temperature 82C

205

Cost
estimate
($M)
Indicative
timing
Trigger
Horsham-Red
Cliffs 220 kV
line overload for
numerous
outages
1

Uprating the Horsham-Red Cliffs 220
kV line terminations to match
conductor rating
1.2

At the time of
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
(Scenario 3)
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria,
as modelled under
Scenario 3
A new double circuit Horsham-Red
Cliffs 220 kV line conductor
temperature 82C
270
A new Horsham-Red Cliffs 500 kV
line initially operating at 220 kV

Kerang-Wemen-
Red Cliffs 220
kV line overload
for numerous
outages
1

A new double circuit Kerang-Wemen-
Red Cliffs 220 kV line each of the
circuit rating 800 MVA
230

At the time of
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
(Scenario 3)
increased
generation in
regional Victoria,
as modelled under
Scenario 3
A new Kerang-Wemen-Red Cliffs
500 kV line initially operating at 220
kV

Dederang-
Glenrowan 220
kV line overload
for outage of a
parallel circuit
Installing a phase angle regulating
transformer on the Bendigo-
46

Approximately
2016 or at the
time of increased
import from New
South Wales
increased demand
and/or increased
import from New
South Wales, as
modelled under all
scenarios
A new double circuit Dederang-
Glenrowan 220 kV line each circuit
rated at 800 MVA
240

Lack of network
reactive support
and voltage
control in
Regional
Victoria
Shunt static capacitors

Needs driven
increased demand
and/or with
increased wind
generation in
Regional Victoria,
as modelled under
all scenarios
Dynamic reactive power plant (1 or 2
units, with a second unit only
required for Scenario 3)
36 to 73
At the time of
increased
generation in
Regional Victoria
(Scenario 3)
Increase in fault
levels
Operational arrangements

Needs driven
increased demand
and/or increased
generation in
Regional Victoria,
as modelled under
all scenarios
Series reactor installation

Switchgear replacement

Outages of the Darlington Point-Balranald 220 kV line, Balranald-Buronga 220 kV line, Buronga-Red Cliffs 220 kV line,
Ballarat-Bendigo 220 kV line, Bendigo-Kerang 220 kV line, Ballarat-Waubra-Horsham 220 kV line or Eildon-Thomastown
220 kV line


Ballarat Zone gas 5-year outlook
The Ballarat Zone gas 5-year outlook (years 1-5) includes the following constraints:
Sunbury minimum connection pressure breach.
Sunbury minimum connection pressure breach
Background
Demand in the Ballarat Zone is growing much faster than average, particularly on the Sunbury lateral
due to increased demand at Sunbury, Diggers Rest, Sydenham and Caroline Springs. This has the
potential to cause minimum pressure breaches at Sunbury
The latest CTM peak day data shows a 13% increase in demand (from 60 TJ to 68 TJ) in the Ballarat
Zone.
Issue
Assessments indicate that a minimum connection pressure breach will occur at Sunbury under 1 in 20
peak day conditions in winter 2010
Solution
Increasing the Wandong Regulator pressure to approximately 4,800-5,200kPa, and/or

connecting the Sunbury branch onto the South West Pipeline, and
duplicating the Sunbury lateral
Timing
Prior to winter 2010 to increasing the Wandong Regulator pressure to approximately 4,800-5,200 kPa

Prior to 2012 for duplicating the Sunbury lateral
Trigger High Sunbury system demand growth and export to New South Wales from 2010

Figure 9-19 shows a schematic of the Ballarat and Sunbury laterals.
Figure 9-19 Ballarat and Sunbury

Ballarat Zone gas 10-year outlook
No constraints have been identified in the Ballarat Zone for the 10-year outlook (year 10) based on
the current demand forecasts and supply scenarios.

Wollert
Brooklyn
Sunbury
Ballarat
Maryborough
Carisbrook
Bendigo
Wandong
Clonbinane
High demand day typical gas flow



9.4 Distribution network service provider planning
AEMO uses load forecasts provided by distribution network service providers (DNSPs) in its
electricity DSN planning.
In undertaking augmentation planning, AEMO:
accounts for DNSP plans for existing and new connection points, and
addresses the impact that DNSP plans have on electricity DSN planning in its constraint
assessments.
The general impact distribution load growth has on the electricity DSN is addressed by modelling
this growth at connection points. This also tends to account for the impact that preferred network
solutions have on connection asset constraints (for example, installing additional transformation at
existing connection points), which are not explicitly addressed by the VAPR.
Table 9-20 lists the planned connection modifications from the 2009 Transmission Connection
Planning Report, and the potential shared transmission network impacts and considerations.
Table 9-20 Distribution network service provider planning impacts
Location /
terminal
station
Preferred network solution Electricity DSN impacts and considerations
Altona 66 kV
Install additional transformation
capacity and reconfigure 66 kV exits
in 2019
Fault levels may increase (220 kV and 66 kV)
Ballarat 66 kV
Install a third Ballarat 150 MVA
220/66 kV transformer in 2019
Contingency plans exist to reduce supply interruptions due
to Ballarat 220/66 kV transformer outages. Distribution
(66 kV) transfers of up to 20 MVA to Brooklyn and 10 MVA
to Horsham may be made
Installing a third Ballarat 220/66 kV transformer reduces or
eliminates the need for these contingency plans. However,
this will not affect electricity DSN augmentation, as AEMO
does not consider these contingency plans in its
transmission constraint valuation
Bendigo
66 kV and
22 kV
Install two new 75 MVA 230/22 kV
transformers by 2013, separating 66
kV and 22 V points of supply and
transferring load from the existing
(230/66/22 kV) transformation
Increased Bendigo load, leading to the additional Bendigo
Terminal Station transformer installation, and fault levels
with the planned reconfiguration, are being monitored.
Brunswick
66 kV
Establish a new 66 kV supply point
with two 225 MVA 220/66 kV
transformers in approximately 2012.
This enables off-loading of the West
Melbourne and Richmond Terminal
Stations
The transfer of load from the western and eastern
metropolitan areas to the northern metropolitan area may
impact electricity DSN augmentation timings and
preferences
Cranbourne
66 kV
Install a fourth Cranbourne 150 MVA
220/66 kV transformer in 2014
This will supply most new south-eastern growth corridor
load from the Rowville A2 and Cranbourne A1 500/220 kV
transformers. Timings allow for 150 MVA of 66 kV load
transfers within two hours to East Rowville, Tyabb and
Heatherton Terminal Stations. Fault levels are likely to
increase (220 kV and 66 kV)
East Rowville
66 kV
Install a fourth 150 MVA 220/66 kV
transformer in late 2011
Fault levels may increase (220 kV). Timings allow for load
transfers within two hours of 60 MVA to Ringwood and
65 MVA to Springvale Terminal Stations via 66 kV
networks, and 20 MVA via 22 kV networks

Location /
terminal
station
Preferred network solution Electricity DSN impacts and considerations
Fishermans
Bend 66 kV
Implement a 66 kV bus tie normally
open/auto-close control so all three
transformers can be in service in
2017/18
Fault levels likely to increase (220 kV and 66 kV)
Geelong
66 kV
Install a fourth 150 MVA 220/66 kV
transformer in late 2010
Fault levels may increase (220 kV and 66 kV)
Keilor 66 kV
Rearrange 66 kV lines in 2011 so all
five 150 MVA 220/66 kV transformers
can be normally in service,
connected to two 66 kV bus groups,
within fault ratings
The Keilor 220 kV terminal station switching configuration
and flows under normal and various abnormal conditions
are being reviewed
Morwell 66 kV
Install a fourth Morwell 165 MVA
220/66 kV transformer in 2013 based
on power station outputs of 50 MVA
at Morwell and nil at Bairnsdale
Thermal and fault-level impacts in the Hazelwood
220 kV area may require action if an additional Morwell
transformer is installed
Red Cliffs 66 kV
Establish Wemen Terminal Station
with 235/66 kV transformers in early
2011, transferring Red Cliffs 66 kV
load there, and to Red Cliffs 22 kV
buses
The electricity DSN 220 kV lines supplying Red Cliffs may
require thermal and/or voltage control changes to retain
reliability
Richmond
66 kV
Transfer load to the new Brunswick
66 kV connection point from 2012 to
2015. Additional transformation is
provided at Brunswick instead of at
the Richmond Terminal Station by
2014/15
Metropolitan 220 kV ring loading and fault levels will be
affected by this change
Ringwood
22 kV
Install new 220/22 kV transformers at
Ringwood in 2010/11, replacing
existing assets
The 220/22 kV transformers requirements may impact the
possible switching (as part of the Ringwood Terminal
Station refurbishment project) of the Rowville-Templestowe
220 kV circuit at the Ringwood Terminal Station
Ringwood
66 kV
Development of an extra 150 MVA
transformer at Ringwood (5th) or
Templestowe (4th), new Ringwood
66 kV capacitor banks, or a new
terminal station at either Coldstream
or Doncaster in 2016
AEMO will review the requirements and feasibility of the
new termination stations and associated electricity DSN
supply requirements, including easements
South Morang
66 kV
Install a third 220/66 kV 225 MVA
transformer at South Morang in 2019
AEMO will review the requirements to accommodate the
new 220/66 kV transformer at South Morang
Terang 66 kV
Install an additional 220/66 kV
transformer at Terang in 2019
timing may be deferred subject to
embedded generation at Terang
Fault levels likely to increase (e.g. 220 kV and 66 kV)
Tyabb 66 kV
Install a third 220/66 kV transformer
at Tyabb in 2016/17
The Tyabb 220 kV switchyard needs to be reconfigured
with additional 220 kV circuit breakers to accommodate a
new Tyabb transformer
Wemen 66 kV
Establish a 220/66 kV terminal
station at Wemen with a first
transformer in 2010 and a second
transformer in 2014
Wemen 220 kV connection on the existing Kerang-Red
Cliffs 220 kV line, approximately 61 km from Red Cliffs
Terminal Station
No significant impact on the electricity DSN
West Melbourne
22 kV
66 kV connection point in 2015
West Melbourne
66 kV
66 kV connection point in 2012
Wodonga 66 kV
SPI Electricity is negotiating network
support arrangements for 2013 with a
new Wodonga power station
proponent. Install a third 345/66 kV
transformer at Wodonga in around
2017/18
The Wodonga 330 kV switchyard needs to be reconfigured
with additional 330 kV circuit breakers to accommodate a
new Wodonga transformer

9.5 SP AusNet asset replacement and refurbishment plan
This section outlines SP AusNets transmission asset renewal process and provides a list of asset
renewal projects planned for the next 10-year period.
The asset renewal plan is based on asset condition and performance information as well as other
factors that affect the life of the assets, where the asset life is defined as that period of time that an
asset continues to be of technical and economic use.
Plans for asset renewal also examine efficiencies for the entire planning period by integrating them
with the augmentation plans. This approach optimises outage requirements and resource utilisation.
Asset renewal objectives
The objective of asset renewal is to achieve sustainable outcomes in the following areas:
Health, safety and environment.
Network performance and community impact due to network outages.
Minimising asset life cycle costs through the consideration of capital, operational and
maintenance costs.
Physical security of assets.
Compliance with codes, licences, contracts, industry standards and other obligations.
Asset renewal options
The following options are considered in the asset renewal evaluation:
Replace upon Failure is only employed in circumstances where asset failure has an insignificant
or no impact on network performance, health, safety and the environment, and where the asset
has a short procurement and installation lead-time.
Asset Renewal on Condition or Performance is employed to optimise the lifecycle cost of the
asset with due consideration to health, safety and environmental factors as well as the
community cost based on the performance of the asset. This strategy requires sufficient asset
condition and performance monitoring to predict failure of the respective plant with sufficient lead-
time to enable renewal prior to failure.
Renewal by Asset Class is employed when a class of asset has either a higher than acceptable
failure rate or exhibits a greater degree of deterioration than other types of assets. This approach
avoids network performance deterioration due to multiple asset class-related failures.
Renewal on a Bay-by-Bay (or Scheme/Network) Basis is employed when all primary plant and
equipment within a specific bay or scheme of a station is being replaced. This strategy is often
adopted for terminal station renewals.
Replacement of Whole Station in Existing Location (Brownfield) is employed when all assets are
replaced as part of a single, coordinated project within the existing station or location (normally
when station assets are approaching the end of their life and there are advantages in station
reconfiguration).
Replacement of Whole Station in New Location (Greenfield) is employed for the construction of a
replacement station on a new site. It is a more expensive strategy than works within an existing
station (due to the need to procure new land, establish key infrastructure, and to relocate
associated lines), and can usually only be justified on the basis of the existing infrastructures

inadequacy or poor condition, or (possibly) when replacement works cannot occur without a
sustained supply disruption due to the existing sites limitations.
SP AusNet 10-year asset renewal plan
The SP AusNet 10-year plan (in calendar years) covers major asset renewal projects where the cost
is forecast to exceed $5 million. Projects already committed are not included in this plan. The
description of the scope of work in the table below only covers the main plant items.
The project commitment and completion dates are indicative timings only, as the projects are yet to
be approved. A higher degree of uncertainty is being placed on projects in the 6-10 year period.
The cost estimates provided are also indicative at this stage and may vary significantly due to
factors like outage requirements to implement the project.
The plan is subject to change based on the results of further analysis, asset failures necessitating a
reprioritisation of projects, and regulatory revenue decisions.
Table 9-21 SP AusNet 10-year asset renewal plan (cost estimates are in $2010)
Project Name Location Scope of Work Summary
C
o
s
t

E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e

(
$
M
)

L
i
k
e
l
y

C
o
m
m
i
t
m
e
n
t

D
a
t
e

L
i
k
e
l
y

C
o
m
p
l
e
t
i
o
n

D
a
t
e

Years 1 to 5
HWPS Switch Bay
Replacement -
Stage 2
HWPS
Replace 4 x 220 kV Switch Bays, Refurbish
Bushings of selected CBs
10 2010 2012
DDTS 220kV
Switch Bays
DDTS Replace 5 x 220 kV Switch bays 10 2010 2012
KTS Transformer
Replacement
KTS
Replace with 2 x 150 MVA 220/66 kV
Transformers
13 2010 2012
ROTS 220kV
Switch Bays
ROTS Replace 7 x 220 kV Switch Bays 17 2010 2013
HOTS Switch Bays HOTS Replace 4 x 220 kV and 5 x 66 kV Switch bays 12 2010 2013
GNTS Switch Bays GNTS
Replace 7 x 220 kV Switch Bays and 6 x 66 kV
Switch Bays
17 2012 2014
RTS Rebuild RTS
Replace with 3 x 225 MVA 220/66 kV
Transformers, with 9 x 220 kV Switch Bays, new
66 and 22kV stations
98 2010 2015
WMTS Rebuild WMTS
Replace 3 x 150MVA 220/66 kV Transformers,
7 x 220 kV Switch Bays, 16 x 66 kV Switch Bays
and 22 kV Switch Bays
65 2011 2016
GTS Transformer
Replacement
GTS Replace 2 x 150 MVA 220/66kV Transformers 13 2012 2015
SMTS Transformer
Replacement -
Stage 1
SMTS Replace 1 x 700 MVA 330/220 kV Transformer 15 2013 2015
BETS-KGTS Line
Communications
BETS-KGTS
Line
Replace PLC with OPGW 5 2014 2015
RWTS
Replacement -
Stage 2
RWTS Replace 9 x 220 kV and 8x 66 kV Switch Bays 21.5 2014 2015
Years 6 to 10


Project Name Location Scope of Work Summary
C
o
s
t

E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e

(
$
M
)

L
i
k
e
l
y

C
o
m
m
i
t
m
e
n
t

D
a
t
e

L
i
k
e
l
y

C
o
m
p
l
e
t
i
o
n

D
a
t
e

DDTS Transformer
Replacement
DDTS Replace 1 x 340 MVA 330/220 kV Transformer 10 2014 2016
BETS Transformer
Replacement
BETS Replace 1 x 150 MVA 220/66 kV Transformers 6.5 2014 2016
TTS Transformer
Replacement
TTS Replace 1 x 150 MVA 220/66kV Transformers 7 2014 2016
GNTS Transformer
Replacement
GNTS Replace 1 x 150 MVA 220/66kV Transformer 9 2014 2016
KGTS-RCTS Line
Communications
KGTS-
RCTS Line
Replace with OPGW 10 2015 2016
HTS Rebuild HTS
Replace 2 x 150 MVA 220/66 kV Transformers,
2 x 220 kV Switch Bays and 8 x 66 kV Switch
Bays
25 2015 2017
SVTS Switch Bays SVTS Replace 15 x 66 kV and 4 x 220 kV Switch Bays 18 2015 2017
Waubra TS-HOTS
Line
Communications
Waubra TS-
HOTS Line
Replace with OPGW 5 2016 2017
FBTS
Synchronous
Condenser
FBTS
Refurbish SCO or replace with SVC or other
reactive plant retaining existing service levels
33 2016 2018
HWPS Switch
Bays - Stage 3
HWPS Replace 19 x 220 kV Switch Bays 38 2016 2018
RCTS
Transformers and
Switch Bays
RCTS
Replace with 2 x 35 MVA 220/66/22 kV
Transformers and 3 x 22 kV Switch Bays
8 2016 2018
TSTS
Synchronous
Condenser
TSTS
Refurbish SCO or replace with SVC or other
reactive plant retaining existing service levels
33 2016 2018
TSTS Transformer
Replacement
TSTS Replace 1 x 150 MVA 220/66 kV Transformer 6.5 2016 2018
MLTS 500kV
Switch Bays
MLTS Replace 8 x 500 kV CBs 16 2017 2018
SMTS Transformer
Replacement -
Stage 2
SMTS Replace 1 x 700 MVA 330/220 kV Transformer 15 2017 2019
ERTS Switch Bays ERTS Replace 2 x 220 kV and 16 x 66 kV Switch bays 36 2017 2019
9.6 Gas - future developments
This section provides details about transmission system developments that are not necessarily
linked to the regional gas DTS constraints identified in Section 9.3.
9.6.1 Compressor strategy
APA Group has completed upgrade of 2850 kW compressor packages at Gooding and Brooklyn to
dry seals and installed a new dry seal 3500 kW compressor package at Brooklyn. Two dry seal 4500
kW compressor packages are being commissioned at Wollert in 2010 and further work is under

review at Brooklyn (see Table 9-22). The upgrade work is subject to the APA Group Access
Arrangement. Table 9-22 lists the proposed upgrades to specific compressors.
Table 9-22 Compressor upgrades (proposed and committed)
Station
Compress
or
Nature of upgrade
Expected
completion
Brooklyn
BCS13 and
BCS14
Two new 3,500 kW dry seal compressors to replace the 850 kW BCS6
and BCS8, and the 950 kW BCS7 and BCS9 compressors (proposed)
Under
review
BCS11
Relocation of existing BCS11 2,850 kW compressor (proposed).
BCS10 to be removed
Under
review
Wollert
WCS4 and
WCS5
Two new 4,500 kW dry seal compressors to replace the 850 kW WCS1
and WCS3, and the 950 kW WCS2 compressors (proposed)
2010
WCS6
A new 4,500 kW dry seal compressor to meet increasing demand
(proposed)
The proposed Wollert upgrades are linked to the Ballarat Zone
constraint located at Shepparton/Echuca
2015
Springhurst SCS1
Reconfigure existing 4,500 kW dry seal compressor for northward
compression (proposed)
2010
Euroa ECS1 One new 4,500 kW dry seal compressor (proposed) 2011/2012

9.6.2 New connections
There have been a series of enquiries, including a number of potentially large loads in the Latrobe
Valley, regarding new supplies to various locations within the gas DTS. As none of these enquiries
are regarded as being firm, no detailed analysis has been undertaken.
9.7 Plant outages and system capacity
Table 9-23 lists the potential high-level impacts from specific gas plant outages involving entire
facilities.
Table 9-23 Gas plant outage impacts
Plant Outage impact
Brooklyn CS
Constrains summer transport to Iona to less than 45 TJ/d. During winter, the compressor
configuration, power and redundancy minimises supply risks to Geelong and Ballarat
Gooding CS Limits Longford injections to approximately 760 TJ/d
LNG facility Decreases the ability to maintain system linepack, potentially leading to curtailment
SCADA/Communication
system
Requires the implementation of manual operation, reducing control effectiveness and
impacting operational schedules
Springhurst CS
Decreases the import capacity at Culcairn from 50 TJ/d to 35 TJ/d if Young compressor
station is not operating and from 92 TJ/d to 60 TJ/d if Young compressor station is not
operating
Wollert CS
Decreases the capacity from Wollert to Culcairn, further limiting gas exports to New South
Wales

Maintenance schedules
Annual maintenance schedules are generally the same from year-to-year. As a result, AEMO
expects the maintenance schedule for 2009 to apply for the forecast period. See Section 9.8 for
more information about scheduled maintenance and outages for 2010, including the impact of
scheduled cyclical plant maintenance and outages on system capacity for 2010.
9.8 Planned maintenance (monthly planning review 2010)
Under the National Gas Rules (NGR), AEMO is responsible for coordinating transmission pipeline
owner and storage provider maintenance planning, to ensure system security is not threatened due
to the unavailability of pipeline equipment. As a result, maintenance and outages are planned to
minimise gas transport disruptions, and to ensure 1 in 20 peak day system demand requirements.
The same principles apply to other planned works, such as system augmentations and new
connections (or both).
In terms of scheduled maintenance outages for 2010 (unless otherwise identified), AEMO reviewed:
APA Groups planned gas DTS equipment maintenance and LNG plant outages, and
supply and UGS maintenance.
9.8.1 Maintenance and plant outages for 2010
Table 9-24 lists the gas DTS maintenance schedules, infrastructure, and plant outages for 2010.
See also Section 9.6 for information about compressor upgrades (proposed and committed).

Table 9-24 DTS maintenance schedules, infrastructure, and plant outages, 2010
Infrastructure Description, role and required maintenance
Brooklyn Compressor
Station
Description: One 850 kW compressor (Unit 8), one 950 kW compressor (Unit 9), two
2,850 kW compressors (Units 10 and 11), and one 3,500 kW compressor (Unit 12)
Primary Role: Provides compression to the Brooklyn-Corio pipeline (and ultimately the
South West Pipeline (SWP)) and the Brooklyn-Ballarat-Bendigo pipeline
Maintenance required: With increased production of gas from the Otway fields, it is
expected that Otway gas, rather than Longford gas, will be used to replenish the UGS.
As a result, there will be less compression at Brooklyn to replenish the UGS. There
will, however, be increased Brooklyn compression to supply the GPG at Laverton
North
Units 8 and 9 will be out of service for maintenance during January and February,
respectively. Units 10 and 11 will be out of service during September and April,
respectively. Unit 12 will be out of service for March. These outages are not expected
to cause a transmission constraint. Ongoing consultation between AEMO and APA
Group should enable maintenance to be carried out whilst minimising the risk to
system security
Brooklyn Unit 10 is a standby machine and will only be operated if Unit 11 or Unit 12
has failed
Gooding Compressor
Station
Description: Four 2,850 kW compressors (Units 1, 2, 3 and 4). For normal winter
operation, up to three compressors are operated simultaneously. One compressor is
available as a standby in case of failure
Primary Role: Provides compression to the Longford-Melbourne pipeline
Maintenance required: Normal annual maintenance (making alternate compressors
unavailable for up to four weeks at a time) from January-April. As the works are to
occur when Gooding compression is unlikely to be required, this outage is not
expected to cause a transmission constraint
Iona Compressor Station
Description: Two 298 kW reciprocating compressors (Units 1 and 2)
Primary Role: Provides compression to the WTS from the SWP
Maintenance required: Alternate units will be out of service for one week in
November. During this period, a standby compressor failure will limit Iona withdrawals
to approximately 25 TJ/d to maintain a pressure of approximately 4,500 kPa at Iona
and ensure supply to the WTS
Springhurst Compressor
Station
Description: One 4,550 kW compressor (Unit 1)
Primary Role: Provides compression for imports via the New South Wales
interconnect
Maintenance required: This compressor will be out of service for general
maintenance during May. This normally reduces interconnect import capacity from 50
TJ/d to 35 TJ/d, when the Young compressor is not operating. APA Group proposes to
upgrade the station to allow compression northwards. See Chapter 3 for more
information about anticipated import levels via the New South Wales interconnect for
2009
Wollert Compressor Station
Description: Two 850 kW compressors (Units 1 and 3) and one 950 kW compressor
(Unit 2). Up to two units are operated in winter with one on standby, minimising the
risk of transmission constraints. APA Group is installing two new 4500 kW compressor
packages at Wollert to replace the wet seal Saturn compressors, and to increase
export capacity to Culcairn
Primary Role: Provides compression to the Wollert-Wodonga pipeline and assists
supply to the New South Wales interconnect at Culcairn. Exports to New South Wales
are generally not possible without Wollert compression
Maintenance required: Alternate units will be out of service for four weeks each for
annual maintenance from January-March. This is not expected to further restrict export
capacity


In addition to compressor maintenance, general compressor station maintenance is also scheduled
to take place at different times of the year. This maintenance:
does not normally require extensive equipment outages
has a rapid recall period (usually four hours), and
does not represent a major risk to gas transport and system security.
Liquefied Natural Gas plant maintenance
Table 9-27 summarises LNG facility maintenance schedules for 2010. Taking plant redundancy into
account, maintenance and works have been scheduled to minimise supply risks throughout the
period.
The LNG facility has a maximum vaporisation capacity of 180 t/h, requiring three vaporisers, three
pumps, and one boil-off compressor to be available. Failure of either a pump or a vaporiser can
reduce capacity by 17% (to 44%). The LNG firm contracted rate is for 100 t/h for 16 hours, providing
up to 87 TJ/d. This provides for plant redundancy in case of an outage of one pump and one
vaporiser (see Chapter 5, Section 5.3.4 to 5.3.7, for more information about LNG storages).
The facility will undergo general maintenance in February and May. The recall period (usually four
hours) minimises the risk to system security. Annual vaporiser maintenance requires each unit to be
out of service for four weeks during low demand periods. During this period, the vaporisation
capacity will be reduced to 56% (when Vaporiser C is unavailable), and 83% (when either Vaporiser
A or B is unavailable).
Boil-off compressor maintenance does not affect vaporisation.
9.8.2 Supply and Underground Gas Storage maintenance
Table 9-25 lists supply and UGS infrastructure maintenance schedules. Table 9-26 and Table 9-27
list monthly planned maintenance for the compressor stations and LNG facility, respectively.
Table 9-25 Supply and UGS infrastructure maintenance schedules for 2010
Infrastructure Planned Maintenance
The Longford plant
Maintenance is scheduled to occur during the lower demand summer period. In addition,
Esso and BHP Billiton will undertake maintenance activities required for the Kipper, Tuna
and Turrum projects, including the installation of the newest platform in Bass Strait, Marlin B
While final scheduling is not confirmed, some of these activities are currently planned for
Winter and Spring 2010. AEMO and Exxon-Mobil work jointly to plan Longford plant
maintenance
The UGS facility
The commissioning of a second Iona gas processing train is expected to occur in August
2010, but may be delayed due to high gas demand in August or a project delay. This will
require a five day shutdown. No other capacity restrictions are expected
VicHub Limited maintenance is planned
SEA Gas Limited maintenance is planned
BassGas Maintenance is scheduled for October 2010. This will require a five day shutdown

Infrastructure Planned Maintenance
Pipeline Inspection
The following pipeline inspection (pigging) works are scheduled:
Iona Paaratte 150 mm pipeline (2010)
Paaratte-Allansford 150 mm pipeline (2010)
Allansford-Portland 150 mm pipeline (2010)
Metropolitan Ring main 450 mm pipeline (summer 2009/10)
Wollert-Wodonga 300 mm pipeline (summer 2009/10)
Keon Park-Wollert 600 mm pipeline (summer 2009/10)
Brooklyn-Corio 350 mm pipeline (summer 2009/10)
The exact timing of these works will depend on resource availability and suitable flow and
pressure conditions. As pigging is carried out on a live pipeline, there is no effect on
pipeline capacity. Pigging runs are not always successful, and may need to be rerun under
different conditions to enable collection of reliable data.
Third party projects
Occasionally, bodies such as VicRoads or Melbourne Water request APA Group to make
pipeline alterations. Under these circumstances, APA Group and AEMO work jointly to
determine the appropriate timing of the work to ensure that peak demand can be met.

Table 9-26 APA Group planned maintenance and outages, July 2010-June 2011
1

Brooklyn
Compressor
Station
Gooding
Compressor
Station
Iona
Compressor
Station
Springhurst
Compressor
Station
Wollert
Compressor
Station

July

August

September Unit 10

October

November

Units 1 & 2

December

January Unit 9 Unit 1

February Unit 8 Unit 2

Unit 2
March Unit 12 Unit 3

Unit 3
April Unit 11 Unit 4

Unit 1
May

Unit 1

June

1. Only accounting for major maintenance and outages with a recall time longer than 24 hours


Table 9-27 APA Group planned maintenance and outages LNG facility, July 2010 - June
2011
1

LNG facility
unavailable
Vaporiser unavailable
Boil-off compressor
unavailable
Pump unavailable
July

August

September

October

Unit A

November

Unit B

December

January

February Total facility

Unit B

March

April

Unit A

May Total facility

June

1. Only accounting for major maintenance and outages with a recall time longer than 24 hours




AEMO 2010 237 Appendix 1 Comparison of Previous Forecasts and Actual Demand Data
E1 Comparison of Previous Forecasts and
Actual Demand Data
E1.1 Historical information
Victorian electricity consumption
Annual electricity consumption in Victoria has grown by around 730 GWh per annum over the 10
years from 1999/00-2008/09. Table E 1-1 shows the historical Victorian electricity energy
consumption from 1997/98-2008/09. Data prior to 1 July 1999 was obtained from SP AusNets
Historical Information System (HIS). Data from 1 July 1999 is based on the operational data
published by NEMMCO (now AEMO). The non-scheduled energy shown includes energy supplied
by Victorian wind generation data, sourced from electricity distribution businesses, and by
generation from the small hydro plants at Clover and Rubicon.
Table E 1-1 Historical annual electricity consumption
Financial year Scheduled energy (GWh)
Non-scheduled energy
(GWh)
Native energy (GWh)
1997/98 43,275 62 43,337
1998/99 44,861 62 44,923
1999/00 45,991 115 46,106
2000/01 47,035 115 47,150
2001/02 46,892 136 47,028
2002/03 48,474 211 48,685
2003/04 49,434 362 49,795
2004/05 49,822 357 50,180
2005/06 50,791 355 51,146
2006/07 51,561 417 51,978
2007/08 52,379 399 52,778
2008/09 51,590 620 52,209

Historical Victorian maximum demand
Victorian summer maximum demand (MD) has increased by approximately 243 MW per annum over
the 10 years from 1999/00-2008/09 and winter MD has increased by around 148 MW per annum
over the same period.
Table E 1-2 shows the summer MD and the non-scheduled generation at the time of the MD from
1997/98.

Table E 1-2 Historical summer maximum demand
Financial year
Summer scheduled MD
(MW)
Non-scheduled
generation (MW)
Summer native MD (MW)
1997/98 7,213 22 7,235
1998/99 7,584 22 7,606
1999/00 7,832 40 7,872
2000/01 8,088 40 8,128
2001/02 7,618 43 7,661
2002/03 8,202 46 8,248
2003/04 8,572 61 8,633
2004/05 8,512 54 8,566
2005/06 8,730 58 8,788
2006/07 9,062 72 9,134
2007/08 9,818 60 9,878
2008/09 10,566 57 10,623
2009/10 9,918 225 10,143

Table E 1-3 shows the winter MD and the non-scheduled generation at the time of the MD from
1997.
Table E 1-3 Historical winter maximum demand
Calendar year Winter scheduled MD
(MW)
Non-scheduled
generation (MW)
Winter native MD (MW)
1997 6,404 12 6,416
1998 6,662 12 6,674
1999 6,672 23 6,695
2000 7,086 23 7,109
2001 7,118 23 7,141
2002 7,312 39 7,351
2003 7,488 45 7,533
2004 7,436 90 7,526
2005 7,764 46 7,810
2006 7,863 36 7,899
2007 8,351 84 8,435
2008 8,037 56 8,093
2009 8,108 70 8,178

Table E 1-4 lists the summer days with the highest average temperatures from 1999/00-2009/10
and their corresponding MD for the day. Most of these days fell on weekends or public holidays
when demand was lower than on normal business weekdays.

Table E 1-4 Historical hottest day average temperature by year
Financial year Date
Daily native
MD (MW)
Average
temperature
(C)
Comments
1999/00 Thu 3-Feb-00 7,618 33.4 Load shedding
2000/01 Thu 11-Jan-01 7,434 32 Christmas-New Year holiday, reduced load
2001/02 Fri 15-Feb-02 7,617 29.3 Friday, reduced load
2002/03 Sat 25-Jan-03 7,460 35.5 Saturday, reduced load
2003/04 Tue 30-Dec-03 7,381 32 Christmas-New Year holiday, reduced load
2004/05 Wed 26-Jan-05 7,432 30.1 Australia Day, reduced load
2005/06 Sun 22-Jan-06 8,075 34.6 Sunday, reduced load
2006/07 Sun 10 Dec 06 7,580 31.7 Sunday, reduced load
2007/08 Sun 1 Jan 08 7,475 34.6 Christmas-New Year holiday, reduced load
2008/09 Fri 30 Jan 09 10,400 35.4 No significant effect
2009/10 Mon 11 Jan 10 10,278 31.1 Holiday period, reduced load
Daily and annual load profiles
Figure E 1-1 shows the daily load profiles for the Victorian region for the 2009 winter MD and the
2009/10 summer MD.
Figure E 1-1 Summer and winter MD, 2009/10

3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
0
0
:
3
0
0
1
:
3
0
0
2
:
3
0
0
3
:
3
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4
:
3
0
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:
3
0
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6
:
3
0
0
7
:
3
0
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8
:
3
0
0
9
:
3
0
1
0
:
3
0
1
1
:
3
0
1
2
:
3
0
1
3
:
3
0
1
4
:
3
0
1
5
:
3
0
1
6
:
3
0
1
7
:
3
0
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8
:
3
0
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9
:
3
0
2
0
:
3
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1
:
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0
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2
:
3
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3
:
3
0
N
a
t
i
v
e

D
e
m
a
n
d

(
M
W
)
Half-hour Ending
Summer Peak - 11 Jan 2010
Winter Peak - 10 June 2009

Figure E 1-2 shows the annual load duration curve characteristic for Victorian native demand over
the 2008/09 financial year.
Figure E 1-2 Load duration curve, 2008/09

Comparison of the 2010 VAPR forecasts with historical demand
Table E 1-5 compares the historical and forecast annual average growth rates for energy
consumption and summer and winter MD in Victoria. The historical growth rates for summer and
winter MD, adjusted to 10% probability of exceedence (POE) conditions, are shown for comparison.
The historical average annual growth rates of Australian gross domestic product (GDP), Victorian
gross state product (GSP) and Victorian population, and the projections used in the 2009 and 2010
VAPR are also shown.
Table E 1-5 Summary of annual average growth rates
Outlook period
Australian
GDP
Victorian
GSP
Victorian
populatio
n
Annual
energy
Summer
10% POE
MD
Winter 10%
POE MD
Historical growth rates actual (adjusted summer and winter 10% POE)
2000/01 to 2009/10 2.9% 2.8% 1.4% 1.4% 2.8% 2.1%
2010 VAPR growth rates medium energy scenario and summer and winter 10% POE forecasts
2010/11 to 2014/15 3.4% 2.5% 1.4% 0.8% 2.6% 1.3%
2014/15 to 2018/19 2.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.9% 2.1% 1.4%
2009 VAPR growth rates medium energy scenario and summer and winter 10% POE forecasts
2010/11 to 2014/15 2.8% 2.0% 1.3% 0.8% 2.2% 0.7%
2014/15 to 2018/19 3.5% 3.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.8% 1.4%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
N
a
t
i
v
e

D
e
m
a
n
d

(
M
W
)
% of Time of Year
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%

First five-year period
The Victorian population has grown an average of 1.7% over the past three years, and this growth is
expected to continue at a similar rate for the near future. The projected growth rate in GSP is
slightly lower relative to historical rates of growth. This reduced rate of GSP growth and the
announced smelter reduction cause the decrease in the growth of energy use over the first five
years of the outlook period compared to the historical rates of growth.
The projected summer 10% POE MD growth rate is reduced relative to the historical growth rate.
Summer MD can be considered in two portions: a non-temperature sensitive portion (or base load),
mainly arising from industrial and commercial demand, and a temperature sensitive portion, mainly
arising from air-conditioning use. Base load summer demand and annual energy use have the
same drivers, so demand is expected to grow at a slower rate than historically, in line with projected
GSP growth.
The temperature sensitive portion of the summer MD is assumed to continue to grow, but at a
slower rate than over the last five years. This reflects the assumption that during extreme
temperature events consumers will continue to use their existing air-conditioners at the same rate as
they did in the past, but that new air-conditioner sales will slow.
Winter 10% POE MD growth over the first five years of the outlook period is projected to be lower
than it was in the past decade. This reduction is again caused by the smelter reductions, which
have a larger impact on the winter peak demand than on the summer peak demand.
Second five-year period
Over the latter part of the forecast period, from 2014/15-2018/19, the economic indicator growth
rates are projected to be lower than they were over the last decade. The lower energy and demand
growth rates (versus historical growth rates) forecast for this later period result from the increasing
number of policies designed to reduce energy use in Victoria, and the introduction of a price on
carbon emissions from 2013/14.
Comparison of actual energy and maximum demand with 2009 VAPR forecasts
Table E 1-6 lists the 2009/10 native summer MD, which was 10,118 MW, and occurred at 4:00 pm
on Monday, 11 January 2010. AEMOs forecasts are produced on a native basis, and assume no
demand-side participation (DSP) and no load shedding, enabling calculation of an estimated native
demand corrected for DSP.
Table E 1-6 2009/10 summer maximum demand
Date and time Scheduled demand
(MW)
Non-scheduled
generation (MW)
Native maximum
demand (MW)
DSP (MW)
11/01/2010 16:00 9,892 225 10,118 135

The 2009 VAPR forecast medium 10% POE MD was 10,346 MW. This was:
higher than the estimated 2009/10 summer native MD of 10,253 MW, and
lower than the backcast of 10,425 MW (reflecting the higher than previously forecast economic
recovery).
The 2009 native winter MD of 8,178 MW occurred on 10 June 2009. This was lower than the
backcast winter 10% POE MD of 8,327 MW.

Estimated annual electricity consumption over 2009/10, using actual data up to the end of April
2010, is projected to be 51,870 GWh. This is slightly lower than the high economic growth scenario
forecast in the 2009 VAPR as shown in Table E 1-7, due to an earlier than previously forecast
economic recovery.
Table E 1-7 2009/10 electricity annual energy versus 2009 VAPR forecasts
Actual 2009 VAPR high
growth scenario
2009 VAPR medium
growth scenario
2009 VAPR low
growth scenario
2009/10 Energy
(GWh)
51,870 52,068 51,291 50,047
Difference

-198 GWh (-0.4%) 579 GWh (1.1%) 1,823 GWh (3.5%)

Forecast model assessment
AEMOs summer and winter MD forecasts are prepared using a simulation model, which produces
forecast probability distributions for the range of possible MD outputs. These forecast probability
distributions reflect variability in demand due to the timing and severity of weather effects and
randomness in consumer behaviour. As this methodology explicitly forecasts demand distributions,
rather than point forecasts of peak demand, it is not valid to associate a particular POE demand to a
POE temperature, as a range of drivers can cause a particular demand level. For this reason
AEMO no longer publishes reference temperatures.
To assess the accuracy of the demand forecasts, the simulation model is used to produce demand
distributions for past years using actual historical economic outcomes. Accuracy statistics can then
be derived from these backcast, or ex-post, demand distributions and the actual demand outcomes.
Table E 1-8 lists the accuracy statistics assessment of the 2009 and 2010 summer MD model. The
accuracy statistics were calculated using the actual observed MD and the expected MD,
approximated by the ex-post forecast 50% POE demand estimates over the period 1996/97-
2009/10.
Accuracy metrics rely on the assumption of a sufficient sample size. In a small sample like this one
(11 peaks), statistics can be misleading, and it is recommended that caution be exercised when
interpreting these statistics and making conclusions about the relative accuracy of the model.
Table E 1-8 - Accuracy statistics of the summer maximum demand models
Measure VAPR 2010 VAPR 2009 Difference
Root Mean Square Error
(RMSE)
318 (MW) 314 (MW) 4 (MW)
Mean Absolute Error (MAE) 223 (MW) 189 (MW) 34 (MW)
Mean Absolute Percentage
Error (MAPE)
2.5% 2.2% 0.3%
Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.02 0.02 0
Bias Proportion 0.01 0.03 -0.02
Variance Proportion 0.122 0.135 -0.013
Covariance Proportion 0.864 0.839 0.025


The Root Mean Square Error is a commonly used measure of the difference between expected and
observed values. The estimate here suggests that the average difference between observed MD
and implied 50% POE MD is approximately 318 MW.
The Mean Absolute Error measures the difference in expected and observed values.
The Mean Absolute Percentage Error measures the difference in expected and observed values as
a proportion of the observed value.
The Theil Inequality Coefficient provides a measure of how well a time series of estimated values
compares to a corresponding time series of observed values. The closer the coefficient is to zero,
the better the forecast method.
The Bias Proportion measures how far the mean of the expected values is from the mean of the
observed values.
The Variance Proportion measures how far the variance of the expected values is from the variance
of the observed values.
The Covariance Proportion measures the remaining unsystematic difference.
Expected values are considered good when the bias and variation proportion are small.
In addition to these statistics, excess percentage metrics were calculated using the entire implied
POE distribution of MD over the period 1996/97-2009/10. Over a 10-year period, (on average) one
MD is expected to exceed a 10% POE level. Extending this logic further, (on average) two MDs are
expected to exceed a 20% POE level over a 10-year period. This logic applies across the whole
probability distribution.
Figure E 1-3 shows the number of MD events expected over a 13-year period for each POE level. It
also shows the number of MD events observed over the 13-year period for each POE level. The
MD events broadly track the expected number of MDs for most of the probability spectrum.
Figure E 1-3 Number of maximum demand events in the period 1996/97-2009/10

-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

M
D

E
v
e
n
t
s
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

M
D

E
v
e
n
t
s
Probability of Exceedance
Expected Number of MD Events Observed Number of MD Events


Figure E 1- 4 is an alternative way of visualizing this information. It shows the deviation between the
observed and expected number of MD events as a proportion of the expected number of events.
Figure E 1- 4 Excess percentage in the period 1996/97-2009/10

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
A
b
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E
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AEMO 2010 245 Appendix E2 Victorian Economic Forecasts
E2 Victorian Economic Forecasts
This appendix presents the Victorian economic outlook for the next 10 years. AEMO engaged
KPMG Econtech to prepare the economic projections for a medium (or most probable), high (or
optimistic) and low (or pessimistic) economic growth scenario. These projections were prepared in
March 2010.
E2.1 Economic forecasts
Table E2-1 lists:
actual Victorian Gross State Product (GSP) growth for the period from 2006/07-2008/09
estimated GSP growth for 2009/10, and
KPMG Econtechs projected Victorian GSP growth for the next 10 years for the medium, high and
low economic growth scenarios.
Victorian GSP growth was 2.0% in 2008/09 and is forecast to be 1.6% in 2009/10.
Table E2-1 Victorian GSP projections, KMPG Econtech
Year Medium High Low
2006/07 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
2007/08 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
2008/09 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2009/10 1.6% 2.6% 2.1%
2010/11 2.5% 3.0% 2.0%
2011/12 2.5% 2.1% 1.7%
2012/13 1.7% 3.2% 2.4%
2013/14 2.6% 4.2% 2.7%
2014/15 3.3% 4.0% 2.1%
2015/16 3.1% 3.2% 1.3%
2016/17 2.4% 2.5% 0.8%
2017/18 1.8% 2.6% 2.1%

Table E2-2 lists KPMG Econtechs projections of population growth for the medium, high and low
economic growth scenarios.
Table E2-2 Victorian population projections, KMPG Econtech
2006/07 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
2007/08 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
2008/09 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
2009/10 1.5% 1.6% 1.3%
2010/11 1.4% 1.6% 1.1%
2011/12 1.3% 1.5% 1.0%

AEMO 2010 246 Appendix E2 Victorian Economic Forecasts
2012/13 1.3% 1.6% 1.0%
2013/14 1.4% 1.6% 1.0%
2014/15 1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
2015/16 1.4% 1.6% 1.0%
2016/17 1.3% 1.6% 0.9%
2017/18 1.3% 1.6% 0.9%

Victorian GSP growth over recent years has been underpinned by strong population growth, solid
growth in private consumption expenditure, and high levels of private business investment and
construction expenditures. Under the medium economic growth scenario for 2010/11, Australian
GDP is forecast to be 2.7%, and Victorian GSP is forecast to be 2.5%.


AEMO 2010 247 Appendix E3 Major Government Energy
Policies and Initiatives
E3 Major Government Energy Policies and
Initiatives
This appendix provides a list of current and recent major government energy policies, and identifies
the extent to which the electricity forecasts reflect those policies and any related assumptions that
have been made. Government policies that were announced but are not yet implemented have been
identified and any related assumptions clearly outlined.
E3.1 Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme
On 15 December 2008, the Australian Government released its White Paper on the Carbon
Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS). The White Paper followed the Green Paper, which was
released in July 2008 and canvassed options for the schemes design.
The CPRS is a cap and trade scheme, which caps the total amount of annual greenhouse gas
emissions through the issue of permits.
Under the scheme, significant emitters of greenhouse gases must acquire a permit for every tonne
of gas emitted in a particular year. Entities obliged to acquire permits will be able to trade them,
placing a price on emissions.
In short, the key points from the White Paper were as follows:
The Australian Government has committed to a medium-term target range to reduce Australias
greenhouse gas emissions by between 5% and 15% below 2000 levels by 2020, and a long-term
goal of reducing emissions to 60% below 2000 levels by 2050.
The price of permits will be capped at $40/t carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) emissions, with the
cap imposed for the first five years of the scheme, rising in real terms by 5% each year beyond
2015.
Coverage of the scheme is around 75% of Australias emissions, involving mandatory obligations
for around 1,000 entities.
Revenue generated from the auction of permits will be used to assist households and businesses
to adjust to the economic impact of the CPRS.
Around 25% of total permits will be issued free to emissions-intensive trade-exposed industries
(EITEs) at the schemes commencement, increasing to around 45% by 2020.
The coal industry is classified as a strongly affected industry and will receive compensation under
the Electricity Sector Adjustment Scheme (ESAS).
A scheme regulator will be established and given a high level of operational independence to
implement the emissions trading legislation and apply it to individual cases.
On 4 May 2009, the Prime Minister announced amendments to the CPRS including:
a delay in the start date, from mid-2010 to mid-2011
fixed price permits (at $10 per tonne CO2-e emissions) for the first year of the scheme
a commitment to a more ambitious target of 25% of 2000 levels by 2020 if a global agreement on
emissions reductions is reached
an increase in assistance to EITEs, and

recognition of various voluntary emission reduction activities.
In November 2009, a number of further amendments to the CPRS were announced, including:
permanently including assistance to EITE, and
a total of $1.5 billion in transitional assistance to the coal sector over five years.
After several unsuccessful attempts, the legislation has now been shelved until after the 2013
election due to uncertainty relating to the major emitters, China, the United States and India. As a
result, the 2010 forecast assumes that the CPRS is introduced in mid-2013 with a permit price of
$10 per tonne CO2-e emissions.
Table E 3-3 lists the assumed permit prices.
Table E 3-3 Carbon permit prices ($/tonne CO2-e)
Year Assumed trajectory
2011/12 0.0
2012/13 0.0
2013/14 10.0
2014/15 34.3
2015/16 35.7
2016/17 37.1
2017/18 38.6
2018/19 40.1
2019/20 41.7

In the first year of the scheme, the permit prices were set to the fixed permit price of $10/tonne
CO2-e. From 2014/15, the permit prices grow by 4% per annum.
Renewable Energy Target
The Australian Government is committed to expanding its Mandatory Renewable Energy Target
(MRET) scheme, which includes a legislated target of 9,500 GWh of electricity from renewable
sources in 2010, to create a national Renewable Energy Target (RET) scheme, which includes a
target of 45,000 GWh by 2020. The aim of the expanded scheme is to have the equivalent of at
least 20% of Australias electricity supply generated from renewable sources by 2020.
Draft amendment regulations for the national RET scheme were released for comment in December
2008, with the following design elements:
A dual linear ramp-up of annual targets from 2010 rising to 45,000 GWh in 2020.
Targets maintained at 45,000 GWh from 2020-2024.
Targets ramped down from 45,000 GWh in 2025 to 23,000 GWh in 2030 when the scheme
terminates.
All existing projects eligible under the current MRET scheme to be eligible under the national RET
scheme.
The same eligibility criteria to apply under the national RET scheme as under the current MRET
including:
solar water heaters with a 10-year deeming period through to the end of the scheme, and
native forest wood waste eligible subject to current MRET restrictions.

Unlimited banking allowed.
Projects able to create Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) from date of accreditation until
scheme termination.
The fixed (un-indexed) shortfall REC penalty price to be set at a level marginally above the
projected peak REC price.
A multiplier is to be applied for RECs created by micro-generation units including photovoltaic
(PV) systems, small wind turbine systems, and micro-hydro systems, such that:
from 2009/10 every 1 MWh of deemed generation from micro-generation units will earn five
RECs
the multiplier of five RECs for every 1 MWh of deemed generation will remain until 2011/12,
after which it ramps down to zero in 2015/16, and
the multiplier applies only to the first 1.5 kW of a micro-generation systems capacity.
In April 2009, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) announced an agreement on the
design of the national RET scheme to achieve a 20% share of renewables, or 45,000 GWh, in
Australias electricity mix by 2020. Changes from the original COAG agreement draft included the:
annual target of 45,000 GWh, which will now be extended from 2020 until 2030 when the scheme
ends, and
REC penalty price, which will be increased from the current MRET penalty price of $40/MWh to
$65/MWh.
The national RET scheme legislation passed on 20 August 2009.
Assumptions used
KPMG Econtech developed forecasts of semi-scheduled, non-scheduled, and exempt generation
required to met the national RET scheme in April 2010.
In developing the electricity annual energy and maximum demand (MD) forecasts, NIEIR considered
the impact the national RET scheme will potentially have on retail electricity prices as well as solar
hot water heater installations and micro-generation system installations and usage. Installation of
solar hot water heaters and micro-generation systems reduces native demand by displacing
demand required to be supplied by the transmission system, and in the case of micro-generation
systems, may also contribute generation to the grid.
In the medium growth scenario, it is assumed the energy impacts from micro-generation systems
derive from a native energy reduction of around 6 GWh in 2010/11, rising to 29 GWh by 2019/20.
The majority of micro-generation is assumed to be in the form of photovoltaic systems. Their impact
is assumed to rise during the summer MD from 4.5 MW in 2009/10 to 21 MW in 2019/20, and to be
negligible during winter MDs.
The impact of the national RET scheme on solar hot water heater installation was considered along
with other initiatives designed to decrease electricity use in water heating (see Section E3.6 for more
information).
E3.2 Minimum energy performance standards
Lighting
In November 2009, a Minimum Energy Performance Standard (MEPS) for lighting was introduced,
requiring most incandescent light bulbs and some low voltage halogen bulbs to be removed from

sale. The MEPS is initially set at a minimum of 15 lumens/watt. Incandescent bulbs have an
efficiency of approximately 7 lumens/watt. The more efficient bulbs that meet the MEPS, including
compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), already have a substantial market share, and some major
grocery chains have (apart from decorative types) already stopped selling incandescent lamps.
For the medium growth scenario, it was assumed that the additional reduction in annual electricity
consumption due to the MEPs for lighting will be around 142 GWh per annum for the first three
years of the scheme, decreasing to around 28 GWh for the following five years.
The winter MD in Victoria generally occurs between 6 and 7 pm, and is associated with increased
lighting load from the residential sector. The forecasts assume that the winter MD will decrease by
approximately 30 MW in 2010, but by only 5 MW by 2016.
The impact of the MEPs for lighting on summer peaks is assumed to be negligible, as the summer
MD commonly occurs between 3 and 4 pm, when lighting is not as significant.
Air conditioners
The MEPS for air conditioning is to be increased from 2010. A recent NIEIR survey, however, found
that many of the available air conditioning units in the most common residential unit size already
meet or exceed the proposed 2010 target. In addition, the way that manufacturers meet MEPS
tends to mean that overall efficiency improvements, in MWhs, translate into lower peak performance
improvements. NIEIRs projections of the impact of air conditioner MEPS take these two factors into
account, as well as the increased market penetration of air-conditioning units and behavioural
changes towards their use.
In the medium growth scenario, the impact on annual electricity consumption is expected to be
minor, starting at 5 GWh per annum in 2010/11, increasing to 56 GWh in 2019/20. The impact on
the summer MD is assumed to start at 7 MW in 2010/11, increasing to 75 MW in 2019/20.
Standby power
A target of one watt is planned for all appliance and equipment standby power usage by 2012.
Under the medium growth scenario, NIEIR estimated the reduction in annual electricity consumption
will start at around 51 GWh in 2011/12, increasing to 212 GWh in 2019/20. The impact on summer
and winter MD was assumed to be in the order of 6 MW starting from 2012.
E3.3 Federal insulation program
As part of the Australian Governments Energy Efficient Homes Package, Australian homeowners
and renters received financial assistance to install ceiling insulation in uninsulated homes or homes
with ceiling insulation of negligible effectiveness. The program originally supported installation of
ceiling insulation up to the value of:
$1,600 through the Homeowner Insulation Program, or
$1,000 through the Low Emission Assistance Plan for Renters.
Following advice received from Dr. Allan Hawke in the Review of the Administration of the Home
Insulation Program, the Government decided not to proceed with the insulation component of the
Renewable Energy Bonus Scheme (REBS), which is assumed to have no impact on future energy
consumption reduction.

E3.4 Advanced Metering Infrastructure
The Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) policy intends to deliver interval or smart meters to all
Victorian households. The Victorian Government approved the roll-out of smart meters in early 2006
to consumers with an annual energy consumption of less than 160 MWh. The smart meters replace
residential and small-to-medium business customer meters that only record total consumption and
are subject to quarterly manual readings.
The roll-out started in 2009, with approximately 2.5 million smart meters to be installed throughout
Victoria over four years. Smart meters are intended to provide Victorian consumers with
information enabling them to better manage their electricity consumption.
Assumptions
AMI is likely to deliver energy reduction and reduced peak loads across Victoria. Time-of-use tariffs,
incorporating some form of peak power pricing and direct load control (DLC), are also assumed to
affect the peak demand forecasts. The assumed effects are conservative, partly because some
customers will have opted not to switch tariffs or implement DLC.
NIEIR based their estimates of the impact of AMI on trials in other regions. Trialled consumer
responses were mixed, with reductions in residential load varying from 4% to 10%. For the medium
growth scenario, NIEIR assumed a reduction of 6% of residential load, starting at 165 GWh in
2012/13, increasing to 396 GWh in 2015/16.
Reductions in peak load are more difficult to make, as this largely depends on customer willingness
to shift to peak pricing tariffs and responsiveness to pricing events. The summer peak response,
estimated by NIEIR for the medium energy scenario, starts at 27 MW in 2011/12, increasing to 57
MW in 2014/15. The medium energy scenario winter peak response is slightly more pronounced,
starting at 41 MW in 2012, increasing to 101 MW in 2015.
E3.5 Victorian Energy Efficiency Target or Energy Saver
Incentive
The Victorian Energy Efficiency Target (VEET) scheme, which commenced on 1 January 2009, sets
energy savings targets. Starting with the residential sector, the VEET scheme requires energy
retailers to meet their own targets through energy efficiency activities, such as providing households
with energy saving products and services, at little or no cost.
The VEET scheme plays an important role in achieving the Victorian Governments target of
reducing household greenhouse gas emissions by 10% of 2000 levels by 2010, and Victorias
overall emissions to 60% of 2000 levels by 2050.
The scheme operates by making large Victorian electricity and gas retailers (known as relevant
entities) legally liable for contributing to energy efficiency measures by acquiring and surrendering
Victorian energy efficiency certificates (VEECs). A penalty will be imposed on entities that fail to
surrender sufficient VEECs to meet their liability.
Under the VEET scheme, accredited persons are eligible to create VEECs for prescribed activities
undertaken at residential premises. Each VEEC created represents one tonne of carbon dioxide
equivalent (CO2-e) emissions reduced by a prescribed activity.

The Victorian Energy Efficiency Target Act 2007 (VEET Act) provides for the VEET scheme to
operate in three-year phases, with new scheme targets and prescribed activities set for each phase.
The first phase of the VEET scheme will operate from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2011.
Assumptions
When estimating the VEET schemes impact on annual and peak Victorian electricity consumption,
NIEIR assessed the additional impacts from the VEET scheme as opposed to business as usual
(BAU), such as the penetration of low-flow shower heads and CFLs. Some VEET scheme activities
are accounted for by other measures, including MEPS for lighting and air-conditioning, various hot
water initiatives, and the Australian Governments insulation program. The VEET scheme impact
determined by NIEIR includes only those activities not likely to be affected by other measures.
For the medium growth scenario, NIEIR forecast a reduction in annual energy consumption due to
the VEET scheme activities starting at 18 GWh in 2010/11, increasing to 99 GWh by 2014/15. The
impact on summer and winter peak demand is forecast to be negligible.
E3.6 Hot water initiatives
The range of initiatives affecting electric water heating over the forecast period includes:
an Australian Government rebate to replace electric storage hot water systems with solar or heat
pump hot water systems, available from February 2009 until June 2013
Victorian rebates for the installation of solar hot water or heat pumps, and for replacing peak
electric water heaters with high efficiency gas water heaters
replacement of electric resistance water heaters with gas or solar water heaters, which is an
eligible VEET scheme activity
solar hot water and heat pump installations, which are eligible for RECs under the national RET
scheme
the Victorian 5-star building standard, which requires the installation of a solar water heater or
plumbed water tank in new residences
hot water management, particularly regulations and incentives for installation of low-flow shower
heads
a national program to substantially phase out electric resistance water heating by restricting
assess to these heaters in new homes and as existing water heater replacements (except when
exempt), and
CPRS impacts on electricity and gas prices.
NIEIR forecast that by 2020 most electric resistance hot water units will be replaced in Victoria,
except in some apartments where replacement will not be feasible. Commercial and industrial heat
pump penetration will reduce hot water heating loads in sectors. Hot water energy use will also be
reduced by improved hot water management in shower heads, dishwashers and washing machines.
For the medium growth scenario, NIEIR estimates that the reduction in annual energy use from
these initiatives will be around 57 GWh per year from 2010/11, reaching 578 GWh by 2019/20. The
impact on the summer and winter MD is estimated to be negligible.


E3.7 Other initiatives
Feed-in tariffs
Feed-in tariffs (FITs) provide a guaranteed price for electricity produced by small generation
systems that export electricity to the grid. A gross FIT provides a guaranteed price for all electricity
generated, and a net FIT provides a guaranteed price for electricity exported to the grid.
A premium net FIT of $600/MWh was introduced in Victoria on 1 November 2009 for solar PV
systems up to 3.2 kW. The standard retail net FIT applies to other renewable power systems, such
as wind, hydro, and biomass used by households and businesses with capacities up to 100 kW.
NIEIR included the impact of FITs in their analysis of micro-generation systems under the national
RET scheme (see Section E3.1).
Residential building standards - 5-star and proposed 6-star
The current 5-star standard in Victoria covers the building shell and the requirement to install either
a solar hot water system or a rain water tank. The 5-star standard was introduced in 2004/05.
Through a COAG process in April 2009, the Australian, State and Territory Governments have
agreed to move towards a 6-star residential standard by 2012. NIEIR only included a small impact
for the proposed 6-star building standard in its forecasts.
E3.8 Policy summary
The various policies and initiatives will reduce annual electricity energy and MD. The CPRS and the
national RET scheme will impact usage by changing electricity prices. The national RET scheme
and the other measures discussed also impact electricity usage by:
changing the stock of appliances (due to the MEPS, VEET, hot water initiatives, and the phasing
out of incandescent lightbulbs)
reducing the need for energy (due to new building standards)
introducing time-of-day pricing that consumers can see and respond to (due to AMI or smart
meters), and
displacing electricity delivered by the transmission network (due to feed-in-tariffs, national RET
scheme incentives for solar water heaters and PVs).
NIEIR estimated the impacts of these measures in terms of annual electricity energy and MD,
keeping in mind that several of the measures are not mutually exclusive. Impact estimates are
problematic, given that some are new measures without historical precedent, and others have had a
large range of impacts. As a result, AEMO has accounted for the uncertainties in these estimates
by using the lower and upper ends of the range of impacts for the high and low economic growth
scenarios, respectively.
Figure E 3-1 shows the impact each policy and initiative has had on Victorian annual electricity
consumption in the medium growth scenario.

Figure E 3-1 Policy impact on native energy forecasts, medium growth scenario

Figure E 3-2 shows the overall annual energy reduction assumed in each growth scenario.
Figure E 3-2 Policy impact on native energy forecasts

Estimating the energy policy impacts on MD is particularly challenging because it is difficult to
predict how households will operate appliances and equipment during peak periods, and how
appliances and equipment will perform. For this reason, the range between the scenarios is
reasonably wide and the impact assumed in the high growth scenario is conservative.
Figure E 3-3 shows the impact of the policies on the summer MD under the high, medium and low
growth scenarios.
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Figure E 3-3 Policy impact on summer maximum demand

The estimated policy impact on high growth scenario winter peak demand is also quite conservative,
with the reduction reaching around 200 MW, but is more pronounced than the impact on the
summer peak. This is because of the larger impact of lighting efficiency at the time of the winter
peak, typically around 6 pm, rather than the 3 pm summer peak.
Figure E 3-4 shows the policy impacts on the winter MD under the high, medium and low growth
scenarios.
Figure E 3-4 Policy impact on winter maximum demand

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AEMO 2010 257 Appendix E4 - Terminal Station Demand
Forecasts (2009/10-2018/19)
E4 Terminal Station Demand Forecasts
(2009/10-2018/19)
AEMO prepares load forecasts for points of connection within the electricity Distributed Shared
Network (the electricity DSN) in Victoria. Table E 4-1 and Table E 4-2 list the average active power
1 year in 2 (50% POE) and 1 year in 10 (10% POE) maximum demand (MD) forecast for summer
and winter, respectively.
This appendix provides forecasts for each Victorian terminal station. The Terminal Station Demand
Forecasts 2009/10-2018/19, a detailed report including reactive power demand, is available from the
AEMO website.
A new report with forecast updates will be published in September 2010.
Table E 4-1 Summer maximum demand forecasts by terminal station
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Terminal station POE MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW
Altona West
66kV
10 174.7 179.5 185.0 191.6 197.6 203.8 210.2 216.8 208.0 231.1
50 166.6 171.1 176.4 182.7 188.4 194.4 200.4 206.7 198.4 220.3
Altona/Brookly
n 66 kV
10 296.6 298.0 307.5 311.6 317.5 323.8 330.1 336.4 360.8 367.2
50 287.9 289.5 298.9 303.1 308.8 315.0 321.1 327.3 351.3 357.6
Ballarat
66 kV
10 176.1 179.5 185.3 188.6 191.7 195.1 198.4 201.7 204.6 207.5
50 169.3 172.6 178.2 181.3 184.4 187.6 190.8 194.0 196.7 199.5
Bendigo
22 kV
10 59.9 67.9 69.6 81.6 83.5 85.4 87.5 89.5 91.5 93.6
50 52.9 60.0 61.5 72.1 73.8 75.5 77.3 79.1 80.9 82.7
Bendigo
66 kV
10 185.2 187.0 190.2 184.7 187.8 191.1 194.3 197.6 201.2 204.9
50 171.5 173.2 176.1 171.0 173.9 177.0 179.9 183.0 186.3 189.7
Brooklyn
22 kV
10 65.7 66.9 68.2 69.5 70.9 72.3 73.7 75.2 73.4 74.8
50 65.4 66.6 67.9 69.2 70.5 71.9 73.3 74.8 73.0 74.4
Brooklyn-SCI
66 kV
10 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2
50 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.2
Brunswick
22 kV
10 99.0 100.9 102.6 104.2 105.9 107.8 109.8 111.8 113.8 115.9
50 92.3 94.0 95.6 97.1 98.7 100.5 102.3 104.2 106.1 108.0
Cranbourne
66 kV
10 371.7 383.4 417.6 439.1 461.7 484.6 508.4 534.3 562.0 591.3
50 350.3 361.2 393.3 413.5 434.8 456.4 478.8 503.2 529.3 556.9
East Rowville
66 kV
10 515.3 530.9 536.1 556.9 578.0 596.4 614.0 633.8 654.9 676.3
50 481.4 495.8 500.1 519.5 539.1 556.3 572.7 591.2 610.8 630.9
Fishermans
Bend 66 kV
10 255.7 270.5 281.0 290.3 299.6 309.7 320.0 330.3 339.7 346.7
50 243.4 257.4 267.4 276.3 285.1 286.7 304.5 314.3 323.3 330.0
Geelong
66 kV
10 434.8 450.6 465.5 481.1 490.0 500.9 512.0 520.7 530.9 539.6
50 426.8 442.6 457.5 473.1 482.0 492.9 504.0 512.7 522.9 531.6
Glenrowan
66 kV
10 110.7 112.4 114.2 116.9 119.6 122.4 125.3 128.3 131.3 134.4
50 104.4 106.1 107.7 110.3 112.9 115.5 118.2 121.0 123.8 126.8
Heatherton
66 kV
10 339.7 346.2 354.9 361.6 368.0 372.8 376.6 381.5 386.6 391.5
50 321.4 327.3 335.2 341.4 347.4 351.9 355.4 359.9 364.7 369.3

Forecasts (2009/10-2018/19)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Heywood
22 kV
10 2.6 2.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6
50 2.6 2.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6
Horsham
66 kV
10 88.4 90.5 92.2 93.3 94.4 95.5 96.6 97.8 98.9 99.9
50 86.4 88.5 90.2 91.3 92.4 93.5 94.6 95.8 96.9 97.9
Keilor 66 kV 10 625.1 654.1 676.1 698.0 720.0 740.4 758.6 777.4 796.6 807.1
50 593.1 620.6 641.5 662.2 683.1 702.5 719.8 737.8 756.0 765.9
Kerang 22 kV 10 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.8
50 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4
Kerang 66 kV 10 57.9 59.5 60.9 61.9 62.9 64.2 65.2 66.2 67.4 68.7
50 56.9 58.5 59.9 60.9 61.9 63.2 64.2 65.2 66.4 67.7
Loy Yang
66 kV
10 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.6
50 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.2
Malvern 22 kV 10 39.7 40.0 40.7 41.2 41.7 42.1 42.4 42.7 43.1 43.5
50 36.7 36.9 37.5 37.9 38.4 38.7 39.0 39.3 39.7 40.0
Malvern 66 kV 10 176.5 181.4 187.8 193.0 198.0 202.1 204.5 207.6 210.8 213.9
50 163.3 167.7 173.5 178.2 182.8 186.6 188.7 191.5 194.5 197.3
Morwell/Loy
Yang 66 kV
10 455.6 466.3 477.2 494.1 511.5 529.6 548.3 567.7 587.8 608.6
50 430.3 440.4 450.7 466.6 483.1 500.1 517.8 536.1 555.0 574.7
Mount Beauty
66 kV
10 34.6 34.9 35.2 35.6 36.1 36.6 37.1 37.6 38.1 38.6
50 32.6 32.9 33.2 33.6 34.1 34.5 35.0 35.5 35.9 36.4
Red Cliffs
22 kV
10 41.2 42.3 43.2 44.0 44.9 45.7 46.6 47.5 48.5 49.4
50 39.0 40.1 40.9 41.7 42.5 43.3 44.1 45.0 45.9 46.8
Red Cliffs
66 kV
10 170.8 176.9 141.1 143.9 146.9 149.8 152.5 155.3 158.1 161.1
50 165.1 170.9 136.3 139.1 141.9 144.8 147.3 150.0 152.8 155.6
Richmond
22 kV
10 77.6 79.2 80.4 81.6 82.9 84.1 85.4 86.7 87.9 89.2
50 71.8 73.3 74.5 75.6 76.8 77.9 79.1 80.2 81.4 82.6
Richmond
66 kV
10 574.5 590.5 604.0 616.2 627.5 638.3 648.9 659.9 670.9 682.0
50 531.4 546.2 558.6 569.9 580.3 590.3 600.1 610.2 620.4 630.6
Ringwood
22 kV
10 99.7 101.9 104.8 107.5 110.3 112.9 115.5 118.3 121.2 124.1
50 93.3 95.3 98.0 100.5 103.1 105.6 108.0 110.6 113.3 116.0
Ringwood
66 kV
10 521.2 534.2 549.7 571.0 593.0 615.2 637.9 661.9 687.0 713.1
50 489.8 502.0 516.4 536.4 557.1 578.0 599.4 622.0 645.6 670.1
Shepparton
66 kV
10 301.0 305.6 312.8 317.4 321.5 325.6 329.7 334.0 338.3 342.7
50 286.0 290.6 297.8 302.4 306.5 310.6 314.7 319.0 323.3 327.7
South Morang
66 kV
10 235.7 247.5 258.9 273.0 287.6 301.3 315.8 331.0 347.0 363.9
50 222.4 233.5 244.2 257.6 271.3 284.3 297.9 312.3 327.4 343.3
Springvale
66 kV
10 477.8 491.6 512.4 523.1 532.8 541.3 547.7 555.6 564.0 572.1
50 441.6 454.0 472.8 482.6 492.0 499.2 504.9 512.2 519.9 527.2
Templestowe
66 kV
10 344.8 349.7 357.5 365.3 373.0 379.9 386.4 393.5 400.8 408.2
50 321.9 326.3 333.5 340.7 347.9 354.3 360.3 366.9 373.8 380.7
Terang 66 kV 10 195.3 200.7 205.6 209.4 212.9 216.2 219.5 222.9 226.4 229.6
50 192.3 197.5 202.4 206.1 209.5 212.8 216.1 219.4 222.9 226.0
Thomastown 10 268.7 275.7 281.8 290.5 300.0 308.1 316.5 325.2 334.1 343.3

Forecasts (2009/10-2018/19)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
1&2 66 kV
50 253.5 260.1 265.8 274.1 283.0 290.7 298.6 306.8 315.2 323.9
Thomastown
3&4 66 kV
10 268.6 275.5 282.5 292.3 301.7 307.5 313.3 319.3 325.3 331.5
50 253.4 259.9 266.5 275.7 284.7 290.1 295.6 301.2 306.9 312.8
Tyabb 220 kV 10 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3
50 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3
Tyabb 66 kV 10 265.5 271.3 281.9 290.2 298.2 304.1 309.0 315.0 321.5 327.7
50 244.7 249.8 259.4 266.9 274.2 279.6 283.9 289.5 295.4 301.0
Wemen 66 kV 10 0.0 0.0 51.8 54.4 56.3 57.7 58.9 59.7 60.5 61.2
50 0.0 0.0 50.1 52.6 54.4 55.8 56.9 57.7 58.5 59.2
West
Melbourne 22
kV
10 96.9 105.8 110.0 114.2 118.5 122.8 127.1 131.5 135.9 140.4
50 91.5 99.8 103.8 107.8 111.8 115.8 119.9 124.1 128.2 132.4
West
Melbourne 66
kV
10 483.9 500.1 516.5 538.3 554.8 571.2 587.7 604.4 621.4 638.5
50 456.3 471.5 487.0 507.6 523.2 538.6 554.2 569.9 585.9 602.0
Wodonga
22 kV
10 33.6 34.7 35.7 36.8 37.9 39.0 40.2 41.4 42.6 43.9
50 31.7 32.7 33.7 34.7 35.7 36.8 37.9 39.0 40.2 41.4
Wodonga
66 kV
10 68.6 69.3 69.9 71.0 72.0 73.0 74.1 75.2 76.3 77.4
50 64.7 65.3 66.0 66.9 67.9 68.9 69.9 70.9 72.0 73.0
Yallourn
11 kV
10 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4
50 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0

Table E 4-2 Winter maximum demand forecasts by terminal station
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Altona West
66kV
10 142.0 140.1 144.1 148.3 153.6 158.2 163.0 168.1 173.2 163.3
50 138.9 137.0 140.9 145.1 150.3 154.8 159.5 164.5 169.5 159.8
Altona/Brooklyn
66 kV
10 296.8 309.5 311.6 320.5 323.9 329.1 332.8 338.4 344.0 367.8
50 293.5 306.2 308.2 317.1 320.5 325.6 329.3 334.9 340.4 364.0
Ballarat 66 kV 10 163.9 166.2 168.8 173.6 176.2 178.6 181.3 183.8 186.4 187.9
50 163.9 166.2 168.8 173.6 176.2 178.6 181.3 183.8 186.4 187.9
Bendigo 22 kV 10 37.2 38.5 44.4 45.4 54.1 55.3 56.6 57.8 59.1 60.5
50 37.2 38.5 44.4 45.4 54.1 55.3 56.6 57.8 59.1 60.5
Bendigo 66 kV 10 134.9 136.6 138.2 140.4 135.0 137.2 139.4 141.6 144.0 146.4
50 134.9 136.6 138.2 140.4 135.0 137.2 139.4 141.6 144.0 146.4
Brooklyn 22 kV 10 60.7 60.0 61.1 62.2 63.3 64.5 65.6 66.9 68.1 66.2
50 60.4 59.7 60.8 61.9 63.0 64.2 65.3 66.6 67.8 65.8
Brooklyn-SCI
66 kV
10 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6
50 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6
Brunswick
22 kV
10 87.3 88.0 89.4 90.7 91.9 93.1 94.5 95.9 97.3 98.7
50 83.9 84.6 86.0 87.2 88.3 89.5 90.8 92.2 93.5 94.9
Cranbourne
66 kV
10 247.6 266.9 284.7 290.2 296.8 303.6 310.1 317.1 324.4 331.7
50 236.1 254.8 271.6 276.7 282.9 289.4 295.6 302.3 309.2 316.2

Forecasts (2009/10-2018/19)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
East Rowville
66 kV
10 400.3 409.2 408.3 417.2 428.5 440.4 451.3 463.7 476.6 489.6
50 385.4 393.7 393.0 401.3 412.1 423.5 433.8 445.8 458.1 470.6
Fishermans
Bend 66 kV
10 201.5 221.9 234.5 240.7 253.0 263.0 273.3 283.7 286.2 300.5
50 195.7 215.5 227.8 233.9 245.8 255.5 265.5 275.6 285.8 291.9
Geelong
66 kV
10 351.2 363.2 378.4 392.1 405.6 413.5 423.0 432.4 440.1 448.7
50 351.2 363.2 378.4 392.1 405.6 413.5 423.0 432.4 440.1 448.7
Glenrowan
66 kV
10 109.4 110.2 111.0 112.2 113.5 114.7 116.0 117.3 118.5 119.9
50 103.2 103.9 104.7 105.9 107.0 108.2 109.4 110.6 111.8 113.1
Heatherton
66 kV
10 255.6 260.6 266.1 268.9 274.1 279.7 284.1 289.7 295.4 301.1
50 248.2 252.8 258.0 260.6 265.6 271.0 275.3 280.7 286.3 291.8
Heywood
22 kV
10 2.6 2.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6
50 2.6 2.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6
Horsham
66 kV
10 68.8 70.5 71.8 73.1 74.0 74.7 75.6 76.4 77.2 78.0
50 68.8 70.5 71.8 73.1 74.0 74.7 75.6 76.4 77.2 78.0
Keilor
66 kV
10 462.6 474.0 497.8 515.8 532.0 549.0 564.4 577.6 591.3 605.3
50 453.6 464.7 488.0 505.6 521.6 538.2 553.3 566.3 579.7 593.4
Kerang
22 kV
10 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1
50 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1
Kerang
66 kV
10 50.0 51.1 52.6 53.7 54.8 55.8 56.9 58.0 59.1 60.4
50 50.0 51.1 52.6 53.7 54.8 55.8 56.9 58.0 59.1 60.4
Loy Yang
66 kV
10 32.5 32.7 32.8 32.9 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.4 33.5 33.6
50 31.9 32.0 32.1 32.2 32.3 32.4 32.6 32.7 32.8 32.9
Malvern
22 kV
10 34.5 34.7 35.2 35.5 36.0 36.6 37.1 37.7 38.3 38.9
50 33.5 33.7 34.1 34.3 34.9 35.5 35.9 36.5 37.1 37.7
Malvern
66 kV
10 126.6 129.9 133.4 135.1 137.9 140.7 143.2 145.4 147.7 149.9
50 122.8 126.0 129.3 130.9 133.5 136.3 138.7 140.9 143.0 145.2
Morwell/Loy
Yang 66 kV
10 426.8 430.4 434.1 439.5 445.1 450.7 456.4 462.2 468.1 474.0
50 403.2 406.6 410.0 415.2 420.5 425.8 431.2 436.6 442.1 447.7
Mount Beauty
66 kV
10 53.0 53.3 53.7 54.2 54.6 55.1 55.6 56.1 56.6 57.1
50 50.0 50.3 50.6 51.1 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0 53.4 53.9
Red Cliffs
22 kV
10 21.9 22.9 23.7 24.2 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.2 26.7 27.3
50 20.8 21.8 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.2
Red Cliffs
66 kV
10 103.1 111.5 93.4 96.0 98.7 101.4 103.1 104.7 106.3 108.0
50 100.3 108.5 90.9 93.4 96.0 98.6 100.3 101.9 103.4 105.1
Richmond
22 kV
10 62.6 64.5 65.7 66.7 67.8 68.8 69.9 70.9 72.0 73.0
50 60.2 62.1 63.2 64.2 65.2 66.2 67.2 68.2 69.2 70.2
Richmond
66 kV
10 431.8 445.5 457.2 466.6 476.4 485.7 494.8 504.2 513.6 523.1
50 415.6 428.8 440.0 449.0 458.4 467.4 476.2 485.2 494.3 503.4
Ringwood
22 kV
10 75.8 77.5 79.4 81.2 83.4 85.5 87.7 90.0 92.3 94.7
50 72.2 73.8 75.6 77.3 79.3 81.4 83.4 85.6 87.8 90.1
Ringwood
66 kV
10 374.1 382.2 390.8 403.2 416.8 431.0 445.3 460.4 476.0 492.2
50 355.3 362.8 370.9 382.6 395.5 408.9 422.4 436.7 451.5 466.8

Forecasts (2009/10-2018/19)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Shepparton
66 kV
10 203.2 207.4 210.8 215.5 218.8 221.7 224.6 227.6 230.7 233.8
50 203.2 207.4 210.8 215.5 218.8 221.7 224.6 227.6 230.7 233.8
South Morang
66 kV
10 119.9 192.3 199.8 208.0 215.8 223.6 230.0 236.7 243.5 250.6
50 113.1 183.0 190.1 198.0 205.4 212.8 219.0 225.3 231.8 238.5
Springvale
66 kV
10 355.5 361.6 372.6 382.0 389.5 397.5 403.9 411.9 420.1 428.2
50 344.7 350.4 360.9 369.8 377.0 384.8 390.9 398.7 406.6 414.5
Templestowe
66 kV
10 278.0 283.5 287.5 291.9 297.4 302.9 308.0 313.6 319.2 325.0
50 266.2 271.4 275.2 279.4 284.5 289.8 286.7 300.0 305.4 310.9
Terang 66 kV 10 180.8 186.9 190.8 195.0 198.2 200.7 203.4 206.2 209.0 211.8
50 180.8 186.9 190.8 195.0 198.2 200.7 203.4 206.2 209.0 211.8
Thomastown
1&2 66 kV
10 253.4 185.5 189.2 192.4 196.1 200.2 203.2 206.2 209.3 212.4
50 242.5 176.8 180.4 183.5 187.0 190.9 193.7 196.6 199.5 202.5
Thomastown
3&4 66 kV
10 210.4 223.4 229.1 234.4 242.0 249.4 253.4 257.4 261.6 265.8
50 203.3 215.9 221.3 226.5 233.9 241.0 244.8 248.7 252.7 256.8
Tyabb 220 kV 10 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2
50 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2
Tyabb 66 kV 10 217.8 205.9 210.0 212.0 215.9 220.1 223.4 227.5 231.7 235.9
50 211.4 199.7 203.6 205.4 209.2 213.2 216.4 220.4 224.5 228.5
Wemen 66 kV 10 0.0 0.0 27.0 28.7 29.7 30.5 31.2 31.8 32.1 32.5
50 0.0 0.0 26.3 27.9 28.9 29.7 30.3 30.9 31.2 31.6
West
Melbourne 22
kV
10 86.5 90.5 94.8 98.7 102.7 106.8 110.8 115.0 119.1 123.3
50 83.2 87.0 91.1 94.9 98.8 102.7 106.6 110.5 114.5 118.6
West
Melbourne 66
kV
10 359.1 377.4 390.8 404.6 422.4 436.3 450.0 463.9 478.0 492.1
50 345.7 363.3 376.2 389.5 406.6 420.0 433.3 446.6 460.1 473.8
Wodonga
22 kV
10 29.0 29.9 30.8 31.7 32.7 33.7 34.7 35.7 36.8 37.9
50 27.4 28.2 29.1 29.9 30.8 31.8 32.7 33.7 34.7 35.7
Wodonga
66 kV
10 53.7 54.2 54.8 55.5 56.3 57.1 57.9 58.7 59.5 60.4
50 50.7 51.2 51.7 52.4 53.1 53.9 54.6 55.4 56.2 57.0
Yallourn 11 kV 10 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8
50 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5


Forecasts (2009/10-2018/19)


AEMO 2010 263 Appendix E5 - Energy Supply Technology
E5 Energy Supply Technology
E5-1 New supply technologies
Victoria is a world leader in advanced brown coal utilisation research. Currently, clean coal
technologies are in a developmental stage and have been receiving significant government support
through taxation concessions and grants. They are yet to demonstrate commercial viability in their
own right, however, or to contribute significant amounts to Victorian electricity supplies. If widely
adopted, they will have important implications for transmission investment by preserving the central
role of the Latrobe Valley as an energy source.
Similarly, distributed generation technologies, if commercially successful, have the potential to
reduce the concentration of generation that has dominated electricity transmission network topology
to date.
Table E 5-1 lists the energy supply technologies in which Australia currently plays a significant
international research and development role.
Table E 5-1 Energy supply technology
Supply technology Australian relevance
Advanced brown coal
utilisation
Australia has large reserves of cheap brown coal. Coal of this type is used in only a few
countries so there is limited international research and development to support its long
term use. Research is focused on coal drying and gasification processes to increase the
efficiency of electricity production and cut greenhouse gas emissions
Geo-sequestration Technology to remove carbon dioxide (CO
2
) from power station exhaust gas or natural
gas and return it to long term underground storage is a possible key to low emission use
of fossil fuels. Local geology is central to the performance of sequestration sites.
Identifying, characterising and evaluating potentially suitable geologic structures to
identify viable CO2 storage locations is vital to the development of this technology
Hot dry rocks This is one of the more speculative (less proven) base load renewable electricity
generation options. Australias hot dry rock resource is among the best in the world,
although much is distant from energy markets. Domestic geology determines accessibility
and potential
Photovoltaic (PV) Australia has world-leading research in this technology. Australias climate, settlement
patterns, and electricity use profile offer a supportive environment for uptake. However,
despite decades of development, the delivered price of PV devices remains non-
competitive for mainstream energy supply, although it fills a significant niche market
Remote area power supply
systems
Australia has technology leadership in small integrated systems for remote settlements
and industries (for example mine sites)
Solid oxide fuel cells Australia has world-leading fuel-cell technology. Fuel cells can utilise natural gas and offer
significant potential for moving to more distributed electricity generation. However, this is
an inherently capital intensive technology, which requires fuel supply to distributed
locations
Solar tower electricity Listed company Enviromission Limited is planning the first large scale application of this
technology at a site north of Mildura. Solar heating will be used to generate rapid airflow
through a high tower, producing 200 MW of electricity from internal wind turbines at its
base


AEMO 2010 264 Appendix E5 - Energy Supply Technology


AEMO 2010 265 Appendix G1 - System Capacity
G1 System Capacity
This appendix presents information about the operational (and other) factors that affect system
capacity.
G1-1 Operational factors affecting system capacity
Beginning-of-day linepack
Linepack is the pressurised gas stored in transmission pipelines. Gas Declared Transmission
System (gas DTS) linepack varies considerably throughout the day, as it is drawn down in the first
half of the gas day to balance a fairly constant hourly injection rate with the evening peak demand.
Linepack reaches a minimum by 10 pm (approximately). Overnight, injections exceed demand and
linepack is replenished until the start of the morning peak at around 6 am (approximately).
Demand forecast error
Daily demand forecast errors occur due to changes in the weather, large loads varying from the
initial forecast (such as gas powered generation (GPG)), and forecast model errors.
When actual demand is:
higher than forecast, this can result in a greater depletion of system linepack through the day,
reducing system capacity, and
lower than forecast, this can result in excessively high linepack and system pressures, potentially
leading to a back-off of injections at the Exxon-Mobil plant at Longford.
Delivery pressures
Delivery or supply pressure drives gas through a pipeline. The higher the pressure, then the higher
the average level of linepack and effective system capacity.
Injection profiles
For operational reasons, gas production plants generally operate at a fairly constant injection rate.
Varying the injection rate to reflect demand throughout the day, however, can increase gas transport
capacity. In particular, an injection profile with a higher injection rate during the first half of the day
can increase gas transport capacity by over 4%. See Appendix G 4 for more information about
injection profiles.
Gas sources that can be injected for short periods at times of high demand, such as Liquefied
Natural Gas (LNG), can greatly assist overall system capacity.
Demand profiles (temporal distribution)
During winter, peaking demand in the morning and evening (due to temperature sensitive load)
draws down system linepack. More severe demand profiles, including the presence of spike loads
such as GPG, will deplete linepack at a faster rate.

AEMO 2010 266 Appendix G1 - System Capacity
Spatial distribution of demand
System capacity is modelled using forecast load distribution across the system. If a specific load is
located close to an injection point, the gas transport capacity is higher than if the load is located
further away.
G1-2 Other factors affecting system capacity
Other factors affecting system capacity include:
heating values and the specific gravity of injected gas at each injection point
ground and ambient air temperatures
minimum and maximum operating pressure limits at critical points throughout the system, and
the power and efficiency of compressor stations.


AEMO 2010 267 Appendix G2 - Modelling Methodology
G2 Modelling Methodology
This appendix provides an overview of the methodology and assumptions attaching to the use of the
Gregg Engineering Winflow and WinTran software modules.
G2-1 AEMO determines system capacity using a calibrated gas
transmission system model (specifically, the Gregg
Engineering WinFlow (steady state) and WinTran (transient)
software modules).
Table G2-1 lists the standard modelling assumptions.
Table G2-1a sample set of conditions for determining system capacity.
AEMOs gas transmission system model is regularly calibrated using actual winter metered gas
injections and withdrawals on selected high and moderate-demand days. Regular model calibration
refines the model to ensure that it accurately simulates the observed pressures and flows
throughout the gas Declared Transmission System (gas DTS). AEMO and APA Group have
thoroughly checked this model, revising the pipe lengths and diameters to ensure it is as accurate
as possible.
System capacity is normally modelled as the maximum daily flow that can be sustained over several
days given a defined set of operating conditions. System capacity is a function of many factors (see
Appendix G1). As a result, a set of conditions and assumptions must be applied in any system
capacity assessment.
To better reflect real-world conditions, the adequacy of the system to meet peak demand has been
modelled using typical beginning-of-day linepack and surprise cold weather. This methodology is
used in the assessment of constraints in Chapter 7.
G2-2 Interpreting modelled capacities
Modelled capacities are subject to uncertainty because they depend on forecast inputs, assumed
operating parameters, operating conditions, and a mathematical representation of the system.
Uncertainties in modelled capacities are estimated at approximately 1% for high-capacity runs (for
example, Longfords capacity to inject gas) but can be up to 10% for small capacities, such as the
New South Wales Interconnects export capacity, or the capacity of a lateral pipeline.
Modelled maximum capacities can only be realised with reliable demand forecasting and operating
conditions (on the day) that are similar to the models assumptions. Extreme high demand days that
test system capacity are often also surprise cold days, where scheduling is not optimum and
maximum capacities cannot be realised. On peak days, the level of linepack and the beginning-of-
day operating conditions are also critical.

G2-3 Modelling assumptions
Table G2-1 lists the standard modelling assumptions.
Table G2-1 System (GREGG) network modelling assumptions
Capacity model for gas transmission system
Network modelling assumptions and conditions Notes
Heating value: 38.7 MJ/m
3
and specific gravity: 0.61 Victorian gas standard properties
Gas delivery temperature above 2C Gas Quality Regulations requirement
Longford injections at flat hourly profile Normal operating condition
Maximum pressure at Longford 6,750 kPa To conform to normal operating practice and pipeline
licence requirements
VicHub injections at flat hourly profile Normal operating condition
New South Wales injection at Culcairn at flat hourly profile Normal operating condition
Iona and SEA Gas injection at flat hourly profile Normal operating condition
Iona maximum and minimum pressures As per pipeline licences, operating agreements and practice
Minimum pressure at Culcairn Operating agreement pressure requirement
Maximum allowable operating pressure (MAOP) and
delivery pressures in connection and Service Envelope
Agreements are not infringed
Service Envelope Agreement and Connection Deed
requirements. For example, a minimum 3,100 kPa at the
Dandenong City Gate
Load profiles calculated by AEMO Calculated from historical flow data for each custody
transfer meter (CTM)
Load distribution as per AEMO forecasts Based on historical CTM data
Supply to Horsham pipeline at Carisbrook Carisbrook to Horsham pipeline modelled with demands at
Ararat, Stawell and Horsham (connected in 1998)
Supply to Murray Valley (Chiltern Valley-Koonoomoo) New pipeline commissioned 1998
Transmission UAFG determined at Longford Calculated from calibrated model data
New South Wales gas flow from north to south Information provided for the VAPR indicates imports of gas
at Culcairn during winter
BOC liquefaction operating, let down gas operating Full supply to this customer is normally required
Beginning -of-day (BOD) and end-of-day (EOD) linepack are
equal
For capacity modelling, mining of linepack is not allowed
Beginning-of-day linepack 20 TJ below target Used for lateral constraint modelling
APA Group pipeline, regulator and compressor assets and
operating conditions as specified in Service Envelope
Agreement
Agreement between APA Group and AEMO 20 November
2006
BOD and EOD pressures similar at key network locations Required for System Security
Regulators, compressors, and valves are set to reflect
operational guidelines
Required to reflect operational and system security
requirements
LNG contracted vaporisation rate 100 t/h for 16 hours For peak shaving purposes to support critical system
pressures, LNG is effective only up to 10 pm. As a result,
only 11 hours LNG is assumed, equivalent to 60 TJ

Table G2-2 lists the planning assumptions for probabilistic mass-balance modelling.
Table G2-2 Probabilistic mass-balance modelling base-case assumptions
Probabilistic mass-balance modelling assumptions and
conditions
Notes
GPG consumption The GPG profiles used are normalised profiles. The model
scales up the historic GPG profile to meet the annual

Probabilistic mass-balance modelling assumptions and
conditions
Notes
quantity while accounting for the actual maximum output
capability of the GPG plant
Winter period only The modelling covers the high demand period between May
and September. The use of LNG for supply-demand
balancing is not expected to be required outside this period
Effective degree day (EDD) Uses actual daily EDD data between 1970 and 2009
Annual demand The system demand profiles used are normalised profiles.
The model scales up the historic system demand profile to
meet the annual quantity
Winter period only The modelling covers the high demand period between May
and September. The use of LNG for supply-demand
balancing is not expected to be required outside this period
VicHub injections at flat hourly profile Normal operating condition
New South Wales injection at Culcairn at flat hourly profile Normal operating condition
Iona and SEA Gas injection at flat hourly profile Normal operating condition
Iona maximum and minimum pressures As per pipeline licences, operating agreements, and
practice

Table G2-3 lists the planning assumptions for deterministic mass-balance modelling.
Table G2-3 Deterministic mass-balance modelling base case assumptions
Deterministic mass-balance modelling assumptions and
conditions
Notes
System demand 1 in 20 peak day
System demand profile 78.8% demand 6 am to 10 pm
GPG demand profile 90% demand 6 am to 10 pm
Forecasting error 6% under actual demand at 6 am schedule
GPG forecasting error 15% under actual demand at 6 am schedule
BOD system linepack 10 TJ below target
Supply reschedules Effective 10 am, 2 pm, 6 pm, 10 pm

LNG is critical for maintaining system pressures. The planning standard for LNG reflects the need to
maintain redundancy in the LNG plant. This is consistent with the firm, contracted, LNG-
vaporisation capacity. The contracted LNG capacity is 100 t/h for 16 hours and provides 87 TJ/d.
Only 60 TJ/d of LNG is effective for peak shaving purposes before 10 pm, which is an important
peak day planning assumption.




AEMO 2010 271 Appendix G3 Within-day balancing
G3 Within-day Balancing

This appendix presents information about the application of the mass-balance model in terms of
analysing within-day balancing requirements, the management of linepack depletion, and the
application of probabilistic and deterministic modelling for forecasting Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
requirements.
G3-1 Mass-balance model

Figure G 3-1 shows a deterministic mass-balance model representation of hourly supply and
demand on a gas day. This model treats the gas transmission system as a storage tank that holds
linepack. Excepting local transmission constraints, the model is a simple but useful representation
of the system.
This type of model can be used in the peak day supply-demand and load duration curve supply-
demand analysis, as well as the LNG simulation models to estimate LNG requirements.
To ensure the reliability of the results, the models have been tuned to match usable linepack and
LNG usage with a range of representative scenarios that were developed using a calibrated
computer model of the transmission system.
G3-2 Within-day balancing

Figure G 3-1 also shows within-day supply, demand and usable linepack. However, as within-day
balancing is affected by pipeline capacity and the usable system linepack, an examination of hourly
supply and demand becomes critical.
In this figure, the left axis applies to supply and demand, and the right axis applies to usable system
linepack. The amount of usable system linepack varies from day-to-day, depending on operating
conditions. In this example, beginning-of-day (BOD) usable linepack is set at 140 TJ.
In this figure:
Daily supply typically follows a flat injection profile over a 24-hour period (injection plants running
most efficiently at a constant rate) excepting for reschedules as shown in
Figure G 3-1. An initial forecast at the beginning-of-day determines the rate of injection, which is
then kept relatively constant for the rest of the day. With the introduction of the new 6 am gas
day, within-day adjustments have become possible with rescheduling at 10 am, 2 pm, 6 pm, and
10 pm. AEMO is examining operational data to assess if this is helping to eliminate some forecast
error, and potentially reducing LNG requirements.
Demand varies considerably through the day, increasing in the morning and evening due to gas
heating, cooking, and hot water loads, and decreasing overnight due to commerce and industry
demand reductions, and reduced heating in homes. Any additional demand from gas powered

generation (GPG) is usually more concentrated in the first half of the gas day, increasing the
daytime swing in demand, and tending to draw down system linepack.
A typical days system linepack profile results from an imbalance in the hourly supply and
demand levels. Although the aim is for supply to match demand over 24 hours, this may not
occur. System linepack falls to a minimum at around 10 pm, and is rebuilt for the following
morning.
The dashed linepack projection falls to a negative value, indicating there is insufficient usable
linepack. LNG is scheduled to compensate. Capable of being injected at short notice (and in
close proximity to the point of demand), LNG is used:
for within-day balancing (because it is the fastest way to supply gas to the gas Declared
Transmission System (gas DTS), and
to maintain system pressures when predictions have system linepack falling to a minimum.
Under favourable conditions, the profiling of injections at Iona has reduced the volume of LNG
required, but LNG is still a critical supply source on high-demand days.
Normally, LNG is not introduced until later in a gas-day, once demand forecasts and system
linepack projections are firm. However, LNG may still be present in the first schedule issued for the
day. See Chapter 5, Section 5.3.5, for more information about LNG scheduling.
Breaches of system security are most likely to occur in the late evening (around 10 pm to 11 pm),
when system linepack normally reaches a minimum.
Figure G 3-1 Within-day supply, demand and usable linepack

-45
0
45
90
135
180
0
20
40
60
80
100
9:00 AM 12:00 PM 3:00 PM 6:00 PM 9:00 PM 12:00 AM 3:00 AM 6:00 AM 9:00 AM
T
J

(
L
i
n
e
p
a
c
k
)
T
J
Peak Demand Supply LNG Linepack w/o LNG Linepack

G3-3 Managing linepack depletion
Operational factors leading to a depletion of usable system linepack include:
extreme demand
high demand with an extreme profile
lower than planned BOD system pressures (meaning low BOD linepack, usually due to a colder
than forecast morning leading into a cold day)
demand from GPG, where this demand is usually concentrated in the first half of the gas day
GPG forecast error, where demand turns out to be materially higher than forecast due to changes
in National Electricity Market (NEM) schedules, including reschedules due to forced outages
system demand forecast error, where demand turns out to be materially higher than forecast,
usually due to colder weather than the original morning forecast
supply problems when a producer or storage provider has not been able to meet scheduled
injection rates, particularly in the first half of the gas day, and
pipeline constraints.
In practice, some combination of these events can occur on any gas day, causing uncertainty in the
projections for the rest of the day, including the likelihood and magnitude of LNG use.
Methods for mitigating the impact of these events include the following:
The use of non-uniform supply injection profiles that more closely resemble the demand profile to
support system linepack. In practice, this involves a higher than average injection rate for the first
half of each gas day so that, say, 55% of the scheduled daily quantity is injected in the first 12
hours.
Overnight rescheduling to increase supply if the linepack target is not going to be met, including,
if necessary, scheduling LNG vaporisation before 9 am.
Use of a higher end-of-day (EOD) linepack target during periods of high demand. This is not
always possible because higher linepack levels increase the probability of having to back-off
supplies when demand turns out to be lower than expected.
Use of zonal EOD linepack targets, for example, by way of separate targets for the South West
Pipeline and the Longford pipeline.
Improved demand forecasting performance for very high demand days (which is difficult, given
weather forecasting errors).
Participant awareness of the within-day impact of GPG, particularly if the level of demand is
higher than AEMO is advised at BOD. Market participants, as GPG agents, need to work closely
with their clients and AEMO to improve the reliability and timeliness of their forecasts.
Building a security margin in supply schedules to provide for greater linepack depletion, where
possible.


G3-4 Probabilistic and deterministic modelling for forecasting LNG
requirements
AEMO uses two measures for the forecast period, which involve forecasting LNG requirements
during:
peak days using deterministic modelling, and
winters using probabilistic modelling, based on outcomes from simulations applying the full range
of weather conditions.
The probabilistic and deterministic modelling methodologies both model the transmission system as
the existing system including the BLP pipeline.
Deterministic modelling (peak day LNG requirement)
AEMO uses deterministic mass-balance modelling to establish when system capacity will be
reached on a peak day. The model, which assesses 1 in 20 peak day capabilities:
treats the system like a simple storage tank, simulating the operation of the gas DTS over a 24-
hour period
calculates system linepack over the day, using specific supply and demand inputs to determine
the LNG required for within-day balancing, and
applies the 6 am to 6 am gas day, taking into account the system demand profile, demand
forecast error, injection rescheduling, and usable system linepack (determined via system
modelling).
Deterministic modelling cases
AEMO assesses three cases, which include the:
1 in 20 peak winter day base case (for severe, 1 in 20 year weather conditions), which is the
planning standard used for assessing the adequacy of gas supplies and transmission system
capacity
1 in 20 peak winter day base case with GPG (for severe, 1 in 20 year weather conditions). The 1
in 20 peak day with GPG, which is the planning standard used for assessing the adequacy of gas
supplies and transmission system capacity, and
1 in 2 peak winter day with GPG (for milder, 1 in 2 year weather conditions). The 1 in 2 peak day
represents the more probable outcome, with the addition of GPG resulting in the same total
demand as a 1 in 20 peak day, but with a peakier demand profile.
Probabilistic modelling (winter LNG requirement)
AEMO uses a probabilistic mass-balance model to establish future LNG usage for within-day
balancing over a whole winter. As with deterministic modelling, probabilistic modelling assesses
system security by calculating LNG use, and considers probability distributions for weather taken
from the last 30 years, taking into account the warming trend, and adjusted for the latest weather
standard, level of demand, demand profile, and BOD linepack.
Probabilistic modelling is also used to determine the potential for GPG and industrial curtailment on
high demand days by simulating:
the impact of the most frequent events driving LNG use, which are system linepack depletion,
severe demand profiles, forecast errors, and winter GPG

daily supply and demand over each winter (for 175 years), taking into account demand forecast
errors, demand profile variation, BOD system linepack variation, and GPG and industrial demand
curtailment (when required), and
a full range of weather conditions (historical EDD adjusted for a warming trend).
The modelling of winter capabilities:
takes a mass-balance approach to model daily LNG use
generates random values to simulate variable operating conditions and events
models gas use every day of the period May to September (LNG is assumed not to be in use
outside this period)
assumes LNG is used to manage system linepack deficits and peak shaving
assumes the aggregate capacity from non-LNG sources has been reached
assumes normal GPG assumptions, and
applies the 6 am to 6 am gas day, injection rescheduling, and system linepack.

AEMO 2010 277 Appendix G4 Dependence of pipeline capacity
G4 Dependence of Pipeline Capacity on
Delivery Pressure and Injection Profile
This appendix presents information about pipeline capacity dependence on injection pressure,
injection profile, load profile and load distribution, and the variables that can determine a pipelines
transport capacity.
G4-1 Injection profiles
Usual injection flow rates are constant throughout the day, with variations due to rescheduling.
Under these conditions, the pressure varies throughout the day. If a constant delivery pressure can
be maintained, however, pipeline transport capacity increases by almost 5%.
Figure G 4-1 shows the curved injection profile that occurs as a result of a constant delivery
pressure (charting each hours demand as a percentage of the total demand for the day). Higher
injection rates during the daytime, with compensating lower rates overnight, maximise system
capacity. Alternatively, an increase of approximately 4% in pipeline transport capacity can be
achieved using a 2-step injection profile (dual-level profile).
Figure G 4-1 Injection profiles

2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
6am 9am 12pm 3pm 6pm 9pm 12am 3am 6am
H
o
u
r
l
y

s
u
p
p
l
y

a
s

%

o
f

t
o
t
a
l

d
a
i
l
y

s
u
p
p
l
y
Time
Flat injection
Constant pressure
Dual-level profile

AEMO 2010 279 Appendix G5 - Compressor Requirements
G5 Compressor Requirements
This appendix presents information about compressor requirements, and includes information about
compressor availability and the requirements for meeting expected system demand each month, the
level of compressor redundancy, and the difference between the number of units available and the
number of units required.
Table G 5-1 lists the:
compressor availability and requirements for meeting expected system demand each month
level of compressor redundancy, and
difference between the number of units available and the number of units required.
The Brooklyn compressor station comprises three Centaur compressors (2 x 2,850 kW and 1 x
3,500 kW), and two Saturn compressors (850 kW and 950 kW). Their requirement and availability
are shown separately, as only the Centaurs are used to compress gas to Iona for Underground Gas
Storage (UGS) withdrawal. During winter, if compressors are required to compress gas to Geelong
and/or Ballarat, Centaur and Saturn compressors are used in appropriate combinations. The table
also shows the scheduled compressor maintenance, and can be read in conjunction with the
maintenance tables in Chapter 9, Section 9.8.2.
Table G 5-1 Compressor requirement and availability July 2010 to June 2011
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Gooding Compressor
Station

4 Centaurs @ 2,800 kW
Available 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4
Required 3 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 3
Redundant 1 1 1 1 2 4 3 3 3 1 2 1
Maintenance - - - - - - 1 1 1 1
Brooklyn Compressor
Station

2 Centaurs (C) @ 2,850 kW
and 3,500 kW 1

Available 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2
Required 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Redundant 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1

For TRUenergy GS
Withdrawal

Available 2 2 2 2 2 1
Required 2 2 2 2 2 1
Redundant 0 0 0 0 0 0
Maintenance - 1 - - - - - - 1 1 - -
2 Saturns (S) @ 850 kW and
950 kW

Available 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2
Required 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
Redundant 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 0
Maintenance - - - - - - 1 1 - - - -

AEMO 2010 280 Appendix G5 - Compressor Requirements
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Wollert Compressor Station
3 Saturns @ 850 kW
Available 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3
Required 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Redundant 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1
Maintenance - - - - - - - 1 1 1 - -
Springhurst Compressor
Station

1 Centaur @ 4,500 kW
Available 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1
Required 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Redundant 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1
Maintenance - - - - - - - - - - 1 -
Iona Compressor Station
2 Caterpillars @ 300 kW
Available 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Required 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Redundant 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Maintenance - - - - 1 - - - - - - -
1. Only two Centaur compressors are shown on the basis that Unit 10 (wet-seal compressor) is used as a backup only when dry-
seal compressors (Unit 11 and 12) are not available


AEMO 2010 281 Glossary
Glossary
Definitions, abbreviations and terminal station names
Definition Description
1 in 2 peak day Most probable peak day gas demand forecast, with a 50% probability of exceedence.
This is expected, on average, to be exceeded once in 2 years (also known as the 50%
peak day).
1 in 20 peak day Peak day gas demand forecast for severe weather conditions, with a 5% probability of
exceedence. This is expected, on average, to be exceeded once in 20 years (also
known as the 95% peak day).
AEMC Australian Energy Market Commission.
AER Australian Energy Regulator.
AEST Australian Eastern Standard Time (see also EDST).
AMDQ Authorised Maximum Daily Quantity.
Annual planning report An annual report providing forecasts of gas or electricity (or both) supply, capacity and
demand and other planning information.
APD Portland Aluminium (customer owned station).
APS Anglesea Power Station.
APT Australian Pipeline Trust (formerly Eastern Australian Pipeline Limited).
ATS Altona Terminal Station
Augmentation The process of upgrading the capacity or service potential of a transmission (or a
distribution) pipeline.
Australian Pipeline Trust
(formerly Eastern Australian
Pipeline Limited)
Owner and operator of the Moomba to Sydney pipeline (and laterals).
Authorised Maximum Daily
Quantity
In respect of a customer, the maximum daily quantity of gas, expressed in GJ/day,
which is authorised by AEMO to be withdrawn by or on behalf of that customer from
the transmission system, in accordance with the allocation of authorised MDQ under
clauses 5.3.2, 5.3.3 and 5.3.4 of the MSOR.
Back-off A forced reduction in gas injections.
BassGas A new project, sourcing gas from the Bass Basin for supply to the gas DTS, and
injected at Pakenham.
BATS Ballarat Terminal Station.
Beginning-of-day linepack Beginning-of-day linepack (BOD LP) is equal to the end-of-day linepack from the
previous gas day.
BETS Bendigo Terminal Station.
Bid stack Incremental gas quantities by injection point offered by market participants and stacked
in price order.
BLTS Brooklyn Terminal Station.
BOC BOC Gases Australia Limited.
BOC Gases Australia Limited. The BOC plant, situated next to GasNet in Dandenong, liquefies natural gas for
storage in GasNets LNG tank.
BOD LP Beginning-of-day linepack.
BOM Bureau of Meteorology.
Brownfield A tract of land developed for industrial purposes, polluted, and then abandoned.
BTS Brunswick Terminal Station.
CAGR Compound average growth rate.
CBTS Cranbourne Terminal Station.
CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine. A type of GPG.

Central dispatch The process managed by AEMO for the dispatch of scheduled generating units and
other services in accordance with Clause 3.8 of the NER.
Coincident peak day demand Gas used by a given customer or a group of customers on the day of maximum system
usage in a given year or month.
Compound average growth
rate
The year-over-year growth rate over a specified period of time.

Connection asset The electricity transmission or distribution network components used to provide
connection services (for example, 220/66 kV transformers).
Connection asset constraint A constraint applying to an asset connecting the electricity transmission network to the
distribution network.
Connection point A gas delivery point, transfer point, or receipt point.
Constraint (electricity) Any limitation on the operation of the transmission system that will give rise to
unserved energy (USE) or to generation re-dispatch costs.
Constraint (gas) Any limitation causing some defined gas property (such as minimum pressure) to fall
outside its acceptable range.
Constraint value estimate An electricity transmission network constraints expected cost to the community,
weighted by the probability of a contingency event occurring. This cost comprises load
shedding and generation rescheduling (for example increased fuel cost).
Consumer See customer.
Contestable augmentation An electricity transmission network augmentation for which the capital cost is
reasonably expected to exceed $10 million and that can be constructed as a separate
augmentation (i.e. the assets forming that augmentation are distinct and definable).
Contingency Either a forced or planned outage. An event affecting the power system that is likely to
involve an electricity generating units or transmission elements failure or removal from
service.
CPI Consumer Price Index.
Credible contingency Any planned or forced outage that is reasonably likely to occur. Examples include the
outage of a single electricity transmission line, transformer, generating unit, or reactive
plant, through one or two phase faults.
Critical contingency The specific forced or planned outage that has the greatest potential to impact on the
electricity transmission network at any given time.
CTM Custody Transfer Meter.
Culcairn The gas transmission network interconnection point between Victoria and New South
Wales.
Curtailment The interruption of a customers supply of gas at the customers delivery point, which
occurs when a system operator intervenes, or an emergency direction is issued.
Custody Transfer Meter A meter installed at a connection point to measure gas withdrawn from or injected into
a transmission system.
Customer Any party who purchases gas and consumes gas at particular premises. Customers
can deal through retailers or may choose to become market participants in their own
right, and take on the retailing functions themselves.
DB Distribution business.
DD Degree Day.
DDTS Dederang Terminal Station.
Degree Day A commonly used temperature model for predicting gas demand for area/space
heating.
Delivery point The point on a pipeline gas is withdrawn from for delivery to a customer or injection into
a storage facility.
Demand-side management The act of administering electricity demand-side participants (possibly through a
demand-side response aggregator).
Demand-side participation The act of voluntarily shedding electrical load by prior arrangement.
Demand-side response
aggregator
An organisation or agency for the provision and administration of electricity demand-
side responses/participation.
Distribution The transport of gas over a combination of high pressure and low pressure pipelines
from a city gate to customer delivery points.

Distribution pipeline Pipelines for the conveyance of gas that:
have a maximum allowable operating pressure of 515 kPa or less, or
where the maximum operating pressure is greater than 515 kPa, and are
uniquely identified as a distribution pipeline in a distributors access arrangement.
Distributor The owners of the distribution pipelines that transport gas from the transmission
pipelines to the consumer or customer.
DNSP Distribution network service provider.
DPS Dartmouth Power Station.
DSP Demand-side participation.
DTS Declared Transmission System (gas)
DSN Declared Shared Network (electricity)
EAPL East Australian Pipeline Limited.
EAPR Electricity Annual Planning Report.
East Australian Pipeline
Limited
The former operator of the Moomba to Sydney pipeline.
Eastern Gas Pipeline The east coast pipeline from Longford to Sydney.
EDD Effective Degree Day.
EDST Eastern Daylight Savings Time (see also AEST).
Effective Degree Day A measure of coldness that includes temperature, sunshine hours, chill and
seasonality. The higher the number, the colder it appears to be and the more energy
that will be used for area heating purposes. EDD is used to model the daily gas
demand-weather relationship.
EGP Eastern Gas Pipeline.
EHV Extra high voltage.
End-of-day linepack End-of-day linepack (EOD LP) is measured at the end of a gas day at 6 am. EOD LP
is equal to the beginning-of-day linepack (BOD LP) for the next gas day.
EOD LP End-of-day linepack.
EPS Eildon Power Station.
ERTS East Rowville Terminal Station.
ESC Essential Services Commission.
Ex-ante Before the event.
FBTS Fishermans Bend Terminal Station.
FCAS Frequency control ancillary service.
FEED Front-End Engineering and Design.
Firm capacity Guaranteed or contracted capacity to supply gas.
Flow path Those elements of the electricity transmission networks used to transport significant
amounts of electricity between generation centres and major load centres.
Forced outage An unplanned outage of an electricity transmission network element (transmission line,
transformer, generator, reactive plant, etc).
Front-End Engineering and
Design
An engineering process commonly undertaken to determine the engineering
parameters of a construction or development, in terms of engineering design, route
selection, regulatory and financial viability assessments, and environmental and native
title clearance processes.
FVTS Fosterville Terminal Station (customer-owned substation).
Gas market (market) A market administered by AEMO for the injection of gas into, and the withdrawal of gas
from, the gas transmission system and the balancing of gas flows in or through the gas
transmission system.
Gas quality excursion Breach of gas quality limit (as determined by the Gas Quality Guidelines).
Generator auxiliary load Load used to run a power station, including supplies to operate a coal mine (otherwise
known as used in station load).
Generator-terminal basis Refers to the demand for electricity as measured at the generator terminals. This
measure includes generator auxiliary loads.
GJ Gigajoule. An SI unit, 1 GJ equals 1x109 Joules.

GNTS Glenrowan Terminal Station.
GPG Gas powered generation.
Greenfield Land (as a potential industrial site) not previously developed or polluted.
GRP Gross regional product.
GSP Gross state product.
GTS Geelong-terminal Station.
GWh Gigawatt hours.
HDD Heating Degree Day. See Degree Day.
Heating Degree Day See Degree Day.
HOTS Horsham Terminal Station.
HTS Heatherton Terminal Station.
HVDC High-voltage direct current.
HWPS Hazelwood Power Station.
HWTS Hazelwood Terminal Station.
HYTS Heywood Terminal Station.
Injection The physical injection of gas into the transmission system.
Interconnect (The) Refers to the pipeline from Barnawartha to Wagga Wagga connecting the Victoria and
New South Wales transmission systems at Culcairn. This does not include the VicHub
(Longford) and SEA Gas (Iona) interconnections.
JLA Western Port (customer-owned substation).
JLTS Jeeralang Terminal Station.
k Thousand.
KGTS Kerang Terminal Station.
km Kilometres.
kPa Kilopascal. A unit for measuring gas pressure.
KTS Keilor Terminal Station.
kV Kilovolts.
Lateral A pipeline branch.
Let-down gas Gas released from the BOC plant (during the liquefaction processes) into the high
pressure distribution system.
Limiter A regulator installed in a pipeline to reduce pressure and remove the need for heaters
at downstream off-takes.
Linepack The pressurised volume of gas stored in the pipeline system. Linepack is essential for
gas transportation through the pipeline network throughout each day, and is required
as a buffer for within-day balancing.
Liquefied Natural Gas Natural gas that has been converted to liquid for ease of storage or transport. The
Melbourne LNG storage facility is located at Dandenong.
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas.
Load shedding Disconnection of electricity customer load.
Longford Hub Interconnection hub for the EGP, DTS, TGP pipelines and Gippsland gas supplies.
LOR Lack of Reserve.
LRA Long-run average.
LY Loy Yang Substation (customer-owned substation).
LYPS Loy Yang Power Station.
M Million.
MAOP Maximum allowable operating pressure.
Market customer A gas customer who is a market participant.
Market participant A party who is eligible, by registration with AEMO, to trade gas on the spot market by
submission of nominations and inc/dec offers to AEMO in accordance with the MSOR.

Maximum allowable operating
pressure
The maximum pressure at which a pipeline is licensed to operate.
Maximum daily quantity Maximum daily quantity of gas supply or demand.
Maximum hourly quantity Maximum hourly quantity of gas supply or demand.
MBTS Mount Beauty Terminal Station.
MD Maximum demand.
MDQ See Maximum daily quantity.
Meter A device that measures and records volumes and/or quantities of electricity or gas.
Meter ID number The number attaching to a daily metered site with annual gas consumption greater
than 10,000 GJ or an MHQ greater than 10 GJ, which are assigned as Tariff D in the
AEMO meter installation register. See also Tariff D.
Metering The act of recording electricity and gas data (such as volume, peak, quality parameters
etc) for the purpose of billing or monitoring quality of supply.
Metering data The data obtained from a metering installation, including energy data.
Metering Identification
Registration Number (MIRN)
The unique gas supply withdrawal point identifier (daily metered sites and CTMs).
See meter ID number.
Metropolitan ring-main The 450 mm, distributorowned pipeline from Dandenong to Keon Park to West
Melbourne.
MHQ Maximum hourly quantity.
MIRN See Metering Identification Registration Number (MIRN).
MKPS McKay Creek Power Station.
MLTS Moorabool Terminal Station.
MMt/a Million, million tonnes per annum.
MPS Morwell Power Station.
Mt/a Million tonnes per annum.
MTS Malvern Terminal Station.
MVA Megavolt amperes.
MVAr Megavolt amperes reactive.
MW Megawatts.
MWh Megawatt hours.
MWTS Morwell Terminal Station.
National Electricity Market The wholesale market for electricity supply in the Australian Capital Territory and the
states of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia.
National Institute of Economic
and Industry Research
A private economic research, consulting, and training group.
Natural gas A naturally occurring hydrocarbon composed of between 95 and 99% methane (CH4),
the remainder predominantly being ethane (C2H6).
NCAS Network control ancillary service.
NEM National Electricity Market.
NEMMCO National Electricity Market Management Company.
NER National Electricity Rules.
NGR National Gas Rules
NIEIR See National Institute of Economic and Industry Research.
Non-coincident peak day
demand
A given customers (or group of customers) gas demand peak day. This does not
necessarily occur at the same time as the system demand peak day.
Non-contestable augmentation Electricity transmission network augmentations that are not considered to be
economically or practically classified as contestable augmentations.
Non-credible contingency Any planned or forced outage for which the probability of occurrence is considered very
low. For example, the coincident outages of many transmission lines and
transformers, for different reasons, in different parts of the electricity transmission
network.
NPSD Newport Power Station.

NPV Net present value.
OCGT Open cycle gas turbine. A type of GPG.
Otway Hub The interconnection hub for the SWP, WTS and SEA Gas pipelines, the UGS, and the
on-shore and offshore Otway Basin supplies.
Participant A person registered with AEMO in accordance with the MSOR (Victorian gas industry).
Peak day profile The hourly profile of injection or demand occurring on a peak day.
Peak flow rate The highest hourly flow rate of gas or MHQ passing a particular point in the system
under normal conditions (as determined by AEMO) in the immediately preceding 12-
month period or, if gas has passed a particular point in the system for a period of less
than 12 months, the highest hourly flow rate which in the reasonable opinion of AEMO
is likely to occur in respect of that system point under normal conditions for the
following 12-month period.
Peak shaving Meeting a demand peak using injections of vaporised LNG.
Petajoule Petajoule (PJ), SI unit, 1 PJ equals 1x1015 Joules.
Also PJ/yr or petajoules per year.
Pipeline A pipe or system of pipes for or incidental to the conveyance of gas and includes a part
of such a pipe or system.
Pipeline injections The injection of gas into a pipeline.
Pipeline throughput The amount of gas that is transported through a pipeline.
PJ Petajoule.
Planned outage A controlled outage of a transmission element for maintenance and/or construction
purposes, or due to anticipated failure of primary or secondary equipment for which
there is greater than 24-hours notice.
POE Probability of Exceedence.
Post-contingent The timeframe after a power system contingency occurs.
Pre-contingent The timeframe before a power system contingency occurs.
Declared Transmission System Owned by GasNet and operated by AEMO, the Declared Transmission System (gas
DTS) serves Gippsland, Melbourne, Central and Northern Victoria, Albury, the Murray
Valley region, Geelong, and extending to Port Campbell.
Declared Transmission System
constraint
A constraint on the Declared Transmission System (gas DTS). See also Constraint
(gas).
Prior outage conditions A weakened electricity transmission network state where a transmission element is
unavailable for service due to either a forced or planned outage.
Probability of Exceedence Refers to the probability that a forecast electricity maximum demand figure will be
exceeded. For example, a forecast 10% POE maximum demand figure will, on
average, be exceeded only 1 year in every 10.
PTH Point Henry (customer-owned substation).
RCTS Red Cliffs Terminal Station.
Retailer Those selling the bundled product of energy services to the customer.
ROTS Rowville Terminal Station.
RTS Richmond Terminal Station.
RWTS Ringwood Terminal Station.
Satisfactory operating state Operation of the electricity transmission network such that all plant is operating at or
below its rating (whether the continuous or (where applicable) short-term rating).
Scheduling The process of scheduling nominations and increment/decrement offers, which AEMO
is required to carry out in accordance with the MSOR, for the purpose of balancing gas
flows in the transmission system and maintaining transmission system security.
SEA Gas Interconnect The interconnection between the SEA Gas pipeline and the gas DTS at Iona.
SEA Gas Pipeline The 680 km pipeline from Iona to Adelaide, principally constructed to ship gas to South
Australia.
Secure operating state Operation of the electricity transmission network such that should a credible
contingency occur, the network will remain in a satisfactory state.
Sent-out basis A measure of demand and energy at the connection point between the generating
system and the electricity transmission network. The measure includes consumer
load, and transmission and distribution losses.

Shoulder season The period between low (summer) and high (winter) gas demand, it includes calendar
months April, May, October, and November.
SHTS Shepparton Terminal Station.
SMTS South Morang Terminal Station.
SOO (AEMO) Statement of Opportunities.
South West Pipeline The 500 mm pipeline from Lara (Geelong) to Iona.
Spike loads A short duration peak in gas demand.
SRMC Short-run marginal cost.
Statement of Opportunities The Statement of Opportunities published annually by AEMO.
Storage facility A facility for storing gas, including the LNG storage facility and the Iona UGS.
Summer In terms of the electricity industry, December to February of a given fiscal year.
Surprise event An event that can occur within the day for which, in order to operationally balance the
system, AEMO may need to change the schedule of gas injections and/or withdrawals
issued at the start of the gas day (due to a change in forecast weather, for example).
SVC Static Var compensator.
SVTS Springvale Terminal Station.
SWP South West Pipeline.
SWZ System withdrawal zone.
System capacity The maximum demand that can be met on a sustained basis over several days given a
defined set of operating conditions. System capacity is a function of many factors and
accordingly a set of conditions and assumptions must be understood in any system
capacity assessment. These factors include:
load distribution across the system
hourly load profiles throughout the day at each delivery point
heating values and the specific gravity of injected gas at each injection point
initial linepack and final linepack and its distribution throughout the system
ground and ambient air temperatures
minimum and maximum operating pressure limits at critical points throughout the
system, and
powers and efficiencies of compressor stations.
System coincident peak day The day of highest system demand (gas). See also system demand.
System constraint See Declared Transmission System (DTS) constraint.
System demand Demand from Tariff V (residential, small commercial and industrial customers
nominally consuming less than 10 TJ of gas per annum) and Tariff D (large commercial
and industrial customers nominally consuming more than 10 TJ of gas per annum). It
excludes GPG demand, exports, and gas withdrawn at Iona.
System injection point A gas transmission system network connection point designed to permit gas to flow
through a single pipe into the transmission system, which may also be, in the case of a
transfer point, a system withdrawal point.
System normal constraint A constraint that arises even when all electricity plant is available for service.
System withdrawal point A gas DTS connection point designed to permit gas to flow through a single pipe out of
the transmission system, which may also be, in the case of a transfer point, a system
injection point.
System withdrawal zone Part of the gas DTS that contains one or more system withdrawal point/s and in
respect of which AEMO has determined that a single withdrawal nomination or a single
withdrawal increment/decrement offer must be made.
SYTS Sydenham Terminal Station.
t/d Tonnes per day.
t/h Tonnes per hour.
t/m Tonnes per month.
Tariff D The gas transportation Tariff applying to daily metered sites with annual consumption >
10,000 GJ or MHQ > 10 GJ and that are assigned as Tariff D in the AEMO meter
installation register. Each site has a unique Metering Identity Registration Number
(MIRN).

Tariff order The Tariffs and Charges Order made under section 48A of the Gas Industry Act and
any Tariffs and charges that are approved under an access arrangement.
Tariff V The gas transportation Tariff applying to non-Tariff D load sites. This includes
residential and small to medium-sized commercial and industrial gas users.
Tasmanian Gas Pipeline The pipeline from VicHub (Longford) to Tasmania.
TBTS Tyabb Terminal Station.
Terajoule Terajoule (TJ). An SI unit, 1 TJ equals 1x1012 Joules.
TGP Tasmanian Gas Pipeline.
TGTS Terang Terminal Station.
TJ Terajoule.
TJ/d Terajoules per day. See also Terajoule.
TNSP Transmission network service provider.
TOC Transmission Operations Centre (formally VNSC).
Transmission Long haul transportation of gas via high pressure pipelines.
Transmission customer A customer that withdraws gas from a transmission delivery point.
Transmission delivery point A point on the gas DTS at which gas is withdrawn from the transmission system and
delivered to a transmission customer or injected into a storage facility.
Transmission pipeline A pipeline that is not a distribution pipeline.
Transmission pipeline owner A person who owns or holds under a lease a transmission pipeline that is being or is to
be operated by AEMO.
Transmission system The transmission pipelines or system of transmission pipelines forming part of the gas
transmission system as defined under the Gas Industry Act.
TSTS Templestowe Terminal Station.
TTS Thomastown Terminal Station.
UAFG Unaccounted for gas.
UGS Underground Gas Storage.
Unaccounted for gas The difference between metered injected gas supply and metered and allocated gas at
delivery points. UAFG comprises gas losses, metering errors, timing, heating value
error, allocation error, and other factors.
Underground Gas Storage The Underground Gas Storage (UGS) facility at Iona.
Unserved energy (USE) The amount of energy that cannot be supplied because there is insufficient generation
to meet demand.
USE Unserved energy.
Value of Lost Load VoLL is a price cap applied to dispatch prices. The value of VoLL, which is set by the
reliability panel, is currently $10,000 per MWh.
VCR Value of Customer Reliability.
VENCorp Victorian Energy Networks Corporation.
VicHub The interconnection between the EGP and the gas DTS at Longford, facilitating gas
trading at the Longford hub.
VoLL Value of Lost Load.
VPGS Valley Power Gas Station.
Western Transmission System
(WTS)
Western Transmission System. The transmission pipelines serving the area from Port
Campbell to Portland, and the Western District from Iona. Now integrated into the gas
market and the gas DTS.
Winter In terms of the electricity industry, June to August of a given calendar year.
WKPS West Kiewa Power Station.
WMTS West Melbourne Terminal Station.
WOTS Wodonga Terminal Station.
WTS See Western Transmission System.
YPS Yallourn Power Station.

Victorian shared electricity transmission network
topological representation
Brunswick
West
Melbourne
Bass Link Loy Yang
South Australia
Malvern
Richmond
Ringwood
Templestowe
Heatherton
East Rowville
Cranbourne
Tyabb
Western Port
Thomastown
Fishermans
Bend
Newport
Altona
Brooklyn
Geelong
Point Henry
Anglesea
Terang
Moorabool Sydenham
Heywood
Portland
Ballarat
Horsham
Kerang
Bendigo
Red Cliffs
Shepparton
Glenrowan
South
Morang
South Australia
New South Wales
New South Wales
New South Wales
Wodonga
Dederang
Dartmouth
McKay Creek
Eildon
Mt. Beauty
Yallourn
Jeeralang
Morwell
Hazelwood
Loy Yang
Loy Yang Gas
Tasmania
Fosterville
West Kiewa
Northern corridor
Regional
Victoria
South west
corridor
Eastern corridor
Greater
Melbourne
& Geelong
Rowville
Springvale
Keilor
Laverton
North
330kV Transmission
275kV Transmission
220kV Transmission
HVDC Transmission
500kV Transmission
Switching Stations with tie transformer(s)
between multiple voltages
Switching Station / Node
(500, 330, 275, 220, 66kV and HVDC)
Regional boundary point
KEY
ELECTRICITY
NETWORK
ELECTRICITY NETWORK
Port Melbourne
Laverton North
Power Stn
Keon Park East
Melbourne
Noble
Park Malvern
Rosedale
Yarragon
Echuca
Longford
Traralgon
Jeeralang
Power Stn
Morwell
Gooding
Hampton
Park
Bass Gas
Narre
Warren
Gembrook
Seville East
Healesville
Dandenong
Whittlesea
Mernda
Yarra Glen Wollert
Somerton
Power Stn
Loy Yang B
Power Stn
LNG
St. Kilda
East
Clayton
Docklands
Newport
Power Stn
Brooklyn
Hoppers
Crossing Werribee
Avalon Lara
Rockbank
Wyndham Vale
Derrimut
Sydenham
Sunbury Diggers Rest
Melton
Bacchus Marsh
Ballan
Kyneton
Woodend
Lancefield
Kilmore Wallan
Wandong
Clonbinane
Broadford
Seymour
Euroa
Shepparton
Tongala
Kyabram Merrigum
Tatura
Benalla
Wangaratta
Springhurst
Cobram Rutherglen
Yarrawonga
Koonoomoo
Chiltern Barnawartha
Wodonga
Walla Walla
Culcairn
APM
Maryvale
Tyers
Vic Hub
to New South Wales
Pakenham
South
Inner
Ringmain
Spotswood
Keon Park West
from Yolla
to New South Wales
to Tasmania
from Bass
Strait fields
Geelong
from
Minerva
from Thylacine
Geographe
Plumpton
Horsham
Stawell Ararat
Maryborough
Daylesford
Portland
Iluka
Hamilton
Cobden
Koroit
Allansford
Iona UGS
to Adelaide
from
Casino
Iona SEAGas
Ballarat
Wallace
Otway
Castlemaine
Bendigo
Lara SWP
Berwick
Carisbrook
Iona
KEY
Gas demand connection
Compressor
Pressure limiter / regulator
Compressor and regulator station
Injection point
Power Station / withdrawal point
Storage facility
Processing plant
Bulk transfer DTS pipeline
Other DTS pipeline
Non DTS pipeline
Geelong
Ballarat
Melbourne
Northern
Gippsland
Western
Victorian gas transmission network
topological representation
GAS
NETWORK
GAS NETWORK
AEMO
15 William Street
Melbourne VIC 3000
www.aemo.com.au
INFORMATION CENTRE:
1300 361 011

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VICTORIAN ANNUAL

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