Contango Oil & Gas Co. Presentation
Contango Oil & Gas Co. Presentation
Contango Oil & Gas Co. Presentation
3
The Big Lebowski
and the
Zen of E & P
4
Contango’s Core Beliefs
From Inception
The only competitive advantage in the natural gas and oil business
is to be among the LOWEST COST producers
Virtually all the exploration and production industry’s VALUE
CREATION occurs through the drilling of successful exploration
wells
The goal is only and always value creation PER SHARE
$7.00
$6.04 $5.93
$6.00
(E) (E)
$5.31 $5.26 $5.35
$5.06
$5.00
$4.00
Credit Suisse 38
(E)
(E) MCF
$3.00
$2.54 $2.61
$2.32
$2.15
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009
*Total Cost Structure includes Operating Costs (including Production taxes), Interest and G&A Plus DD&A for 38 Companies followed
by Credit Suisse
• From a full cycle cost perspective the industry is losing money
• It is not apparent (to me) that full cycle costs have or will decline
• I think the industry needs $6.00/Mcfe to earn a 5‐10% ROR
WALTER.......“I’m sorry the guy wrecked your car Dude, did you make it home?
DUDE……….of course I made it home, you called me here didn’t you?” 6
And, What About Value Creation?
Find, Drill Aquire Capex (last 3 fiscal years)…..............$556 million
Reserves added ……………................................................408 Bcfe
F & D & A $1.36/Mcfe*
DD&A for 12 months ended June 30, 2009……………...$1.17/Mcfe
*F & D Drill Bit $.80/Mcfe
*Acquisition Cost $3.10/Mcfe
7
Taxes Are By Far Our Biggest Cost
Our costs FY 2009 were $2.39/mcfe:
LOE (including severance + workovers)..= $.87/ Mcfe
G & A……………………………………….= $.35/ Mcfe
Interest……………………………………...= $ 0/ Mcfe
Total Variable Costs……………………...= $ 1.22/ Mcfe
DD&A………………………………………= $ 1.17/ Mcfe
Total Costs…………………………………= $ 2.39/Mcfe
Absent dry holes (we follow successful efforts accounting), we are GAAP profitable down to
about $2.50/MMbtu Henry Hub
Our effective tax rate is about 39% for Federal & State of LA taxes combined
8
FY 2010 Capex Program
Well 8/8th DHC Cost Contango NRI Status
($MM) DHC W.I. (inclusive of REX and COE)
“I am not Mr. Lebowski, you’re Mr. Lebowski. I’m the dude so that’s
what you call me…….that or his dudness, or duder, or el duderino if
your not into the whole brevity thing”
9
Natural Gas Prices-
How much more pain?
Lower 48 ONSHORE supply of natural gas peaked in Nov 2008
and is in decline. Demand has bottomed, now increasing
EVENTUALLY, according to Economics 101, when decreasing
supply collides with increasing demand.......prices rise
Natural gas rig count down 50% ± 700 rigs
Balance Sheet strength still demands a premium
Opportunity abounds
Lower
48 Gulf of
States Mexico Onshore
BCFD BCFD BCFD
• What does Chevron know that none of us at this conference seem to know?
• Every company has a Belief/Need/Story as to why it makes sense to drill NOW
• Hold leases, rig contracts, service costs are low “ We just raised a bunch of capital,”
prices will be up in 2010, hedged, need the money to pay interest and G & A,
EBITDA/Interest coverage covenant…..etc.
• My personal favorite – A 35% partner – the IRS
• The critical question, however, is what rate of return (ROR) is the industry investing
capital? Don’t look to F & D cost. I repeat…F & D costs are irrelevant to informing the
rate of return earned on invested capital.
•ROR = Profit ÷ Investment
•We are profitable (owe the IRS money) down to a very low natural gas price. Our
exploration Capex has the effect of deferring taxes via dry holes – expensed and IDC
deductions.
DUDE……This Chinaman who peed on my rug, I can't go give him a bill so what are you talking about?
WALTER……This Chinaman is not the issue! I'm talking about drawing a line in the sand, Dude. Across this
line you do not, uh--and also, Dude, Chinaman is not the preferred, uh. . . Asian- American. Please.
DUDE……..Walter, this is not a guy who built the rail- roads, here, this is a guy who peed on my rug. 12
Hypothetical Example
Assuming No Capex
• Henry Hub gas at $3.50/MMbtu = $4.00 Mcfe (NGL’s & Condensate)
• 75 MMcfed production x 365 days = 27.4 Bcfe
• Revenues = $4.00/Mcf x 27.4 Bcfe = $110 million
• Cash expenses = LOE + G & A + interest = $1.22/Mcfe x 27.4 Bcfe = <$33 million>
• DD & A for Tax Purposes = <$7 million>
• Pre tax Income = $70 million
• Taxes owed 39% (assuming no drilling Capex)= <$27 million>
• Net Income = $43 million
13
Hypothetical Drilling Economics
• Drill 3 GOM wells at $15 million DHC each – 2 dry holes = $45 million
• One successful well requires an additional $15 million in completion cost = $15 million
• Gross Capex = $60 million
• Deferral of taxes due to IDC* = <$15 million>*
• Net “tax effected” Capex = $45 million
• Assumed reserves found 40 Bcfe gross x .72 NRI = 29 Bcfe
• Tax effected F & D = $45 million ÷ 29 Bcfe = $1.55/Mcfe
• Tax effected Years to payback net Capex ($45 million) = 2.5 years**
*Taxes deferred DHC ($30 million) + IDC successful well ($12 million)
Or $42 million x 35% = $15 million
**20 million Mcfed x ($4/Mcfe ‐ $.50/Mcfe LOE) x .72 NRI = $50,000/day x 900 days (2.5 years) = $45 million
The objective is first, always and only to create value per share. The
langniappe is deferral of taxes
17,000,000
16.7 MM Series D
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
16.5 MM
16,000,000
Series C
15,000,000
WALTER ………What do you think happens when you get divorced? You turn in your library card?
Get a new driver's license? Stop being Jewish? I'm as Jewish as Tevye.
DUDE………….It's just part of your whole sick Cynthia thing. Taking care of her dog. Going to her
synagogue. You're living in the past.
WALTER …….Three thousand years of beautiful tradition, from Moses to Sandy Koufax-- YOU'RE 16
DAMN RIGHT I LIVE IN THE PAST!
In Conclusion………..
Run a Screen of E & P Companies with
Following Traits
22 Mcfe’s of proved developed reserves per share
No debt
7 employees
LOE (includes severance tax + workovers) + G&A +
INTEREST at $1.22/mcfe
Wildcat exploration upside
Share repurchase program/no options or shares to
management & BOD
Incentive Alignment ‐ Management owns 24% of Company
17
The Dude donates his
car to the Navy
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