Foreign Exchange Risk Management in India
Foreign Exchange Risk Management in India
Foreign Exchange Risk Management in India
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1.2 Framework for Foreign Exchange Risk Management Framework for Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Figure 1: Source: Kshitij Consultancy Services, 2010 The first step is complete when an organization accepts the need for foreign exchange risk management due to its exposure. The next step involves allocation of resources for managing such exposure. A generic framework is
presented in the above figure 1 can assist organizations in effective allocation of resources for risk management. Forecasts: Once the organization initiates the risk management process, the first step for the company is to develop an appropriate forecast with respect to expected market trends and expected currency movements in the future i.e. what is the expected direction/trend for the foreign exchange rates (Jacque, 1981). The forecast period depends on organization and varies with their choices. However, average forecast period is usually 6 months. Since the forecasts form foundation of risk management process, it is very necessary to ensure that forecasts are as accurate and valid as possible. The margin of error should also be estimated so that the organization can prepare itself for unexpected movements or error in judgement. Risk Estimation: Once the forecast for currency movements is completed, the next step is to measure the actual profit or loss that will be incurred corresponding to forecasted currency rate movements (Kshitij Consultancy Services, 2010). This is usually performed using a technique called Value at Risk and is accompanied with the probability of such risks (Xu and Wirjanto, 2010). While calculating such profit or loss, various risks such as those caused due to market specific issues, systemic risk (due to inadequacies such as reporting gaps and implementation gaps in the firms exposure management system) should also be included in the analysis. Benchmarking: Now the organization will have estimates for expected exposure as well as the corresponding risk. Depending on the organizations volume and size, it has to determine the limits for handling foreign exchange exposure. The company also has to decide the manner in which it wants to manage its exposures (Godwin and Goldberg, 2006): Cost centre approach is a defensive approach whereby the organizations objective is to ensure minimizing adverse effect on companys cash flows to the decided limit.(Sivakumar and Sarkar, 2008) Profit centre approach is an aggressive approach where the organizations objective is to generate profits on its exposure through company transactions. (Sivakumar and Sarkar, 2008) Hedging: Based on the above steps of forecasts, risk estimation and benchmarking, the organization has to now determine an appropriate hedging strategy. Depending on specific requirement, the organization can select from a variety of financial instruments available such as, futures, forwards, options and swaps and issue of foreign debt (Sivakumar and Sarkar, 2008). Stop Loss: The organization can select an instrument based on its forecasts and estimates. However, the firm has to consider the situation where movements may not be according to their estimates and may cause losses instead of risk management. For such scenario, the organization needs to ensure stop loss arrangements to cover for errors in estimates/forecasts. The organization also needs to monitor actual movements with respect to their estimates such that losses can be contained when risk reaches certain critical level (Lien, 2006) Reporting and Review: Risk management policies of any organization are usually reviewed periodically due to uncertainty and chances of forecast errors. Moreover, the effectiveness of current risk management strategy needs to be assessed such that rectifying measures can be taken in appropriate time frame. For this purpose, periodic reports may be generated which include profit/loss status on open contracts after marking to market, the actual exchange/interest rate achieved on each exposure, and profitability vis--vis the benchmark and the expected changes in overall exposure due to forecasted exchange/ interest rate movements. Such review reportshelp in analyzing the validity of benchmarks, effectiveness of strategies and accuracy of forecasts as also the requirement for any changes.
Indian Software companies revenues Geographic Segment TCS Infosys Wipro HCL
2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009 North America 52.8
51.38 74.4 72.3 44 45 54.4 UK 16.18 18.99 8.5 11.8 21 22 29.2 Europe 10.49 10.53 6.7 6.9 Australia
5.8 4.4
4.6 4.6 23 21 16.4 Rest of the world 11.88 11.25 12 12 Table 1: Source: TCS, 2010a; Infosys, 2010a; Wipro, 2010a; HCL, 2009a. As per NASSCOM report, wealth of software and service segments is estimated to cross the $1.2 trillion mark by 2012 (Nasscom, 2009). The figure 2 below shows that the software exports to other countries are on incremental trend since FY2000. Thanks to the Indian outsourcing and IT/software companies, India has come to be known as the preferred outsourcing destination.
Industry performance
Figure 2: Source: Nasscom, 2009 However, on the flipside, given the recent India success story and increasing amounts of foreign exchange reserves in the country, the Indian rupee is also facing high volatility. The volatile rupee aggravates the problem for such IT companies as majority of the revenues of such companies are from foreign countries rather than from India. It has been estimated that 1% of movement in Foreign exchange will have 0.7% adverse/favourable impact on operations margin %. 10% of foreign exchange movement in 2007 shaved off 7% margins in the business. Suresh Senapathy (2009), Wipros Chief operating officer says that 25% foreign exchange movement (USD against INR) in 2008 (Rs. 40 to Rs.50) had added 15-16% margins back. In 2009, 6% movement in downward trend (Rs.50-> Rs.47) took 4% of margin. The recent appreciation of rupee witnessed many of such similar companies reporting huge losses due to the foreign exchange exposure and inadequate risk coverage by the companies. Volatility in the foreign exchange rates continues to impact company results - but it can be managed properly through effective foreign exchange risk management practices.Hence, foreign exchange risk management gains special importance in case of such companies. In keeping with the requirement, foreign exchange risk management has gained a lot of momentum in India in the last two decades. Even the ban on futures trade was lifted in early 2000s in order to facilitate wider usage of such instruments. The companies in India were allowed to deal in options in 2007.
A joint survey conducted by NASSCOM and Mecklai Financial, on risk management practices among 41 of the information technologies (IT) firms found that more than 50% of the respondents believed that foreign exchange risk had the top or second priority in the list of considerable risks for their respective companies (Nasscom, 2007). An overwhelming four-fifth of the respondents revealed that the board members in their companies asked for foreign exchange forecasts at least once a year. In contrast to the above encouraging results, the same survey also revealed a surprising lack of sophistication among respondent IT companies, in regard to their risk exposure. The survey results revealed that 13% of companies interviewed allowed their risk exposures to be realized at the spot, whereas 16% of them stated that they didnt even know the margin they were charged by the bankers (Nasscom, 2007). A reason for usage of limited hedging instruments can also be the fact that very limited research and literature is available on the rationale behind choice of hedging instruments. There are various options and techniques like Hedging, currency options, currency swaps, currency futures and forward currency transactions should be utilised depending on the situation to minimise the foreign exchange risk (Sivakumar and Sarkar, 2008). But because the concept is relatively new and different authors and experts on the subject vary widely in their opinions on choice of instruments, the confusion regarding appropriate choice of instrument prevails. This was reflected in results of the above mentioned survey where two-third of the companies were relatively conservative and using just forward contracts with very small percentage using options and ameagre percentage of companies using options and swaps. Another surprising finding was that more than half of them do not "see" their non-dollar risk as existing in two parts - example, a Euro receivable is really the combination of euro/US dollar and US dollar/Indian rupee. This was also true for more than half the companies who had more than 25% of their exposures in non-dollar currencies, the survey said. Clearly, Indian software companies need to focus more on better risk management strategies. The survey also concluded results by highlighting urgent need for much sounder foreign exchange risk management practices among the Indian IT companies.
Chapter 3 of the study discusses the research methodology utilized for the research. The chapter also includes a justification of approach and methods used including the problems faced in the research process. Chapter 4 of the study presents the research analysis and results obtained from primary sources and secondary sources. The six companies covered for primary data collection include Infosys technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, Wipro Technologies and 2 relatively smaller companies. The smaller companies were not interested in disclosing their names in this project report. As requested by the company, the name of the company and other sensitive data (as described by them) is not disclosed in this report. The sample companies represent a healthy mix of top 4 and 2 smaller Indian software companies. All the top 4 companies taken for this research has more than 90% of their revenues coming from outside India. Therefore companies taken for this research has huge impact on their operating margins due to foreign exchange volatility. The two smaller companies were taken for this research in order to make this research a fruitful one, so that recommendation provided would suit wider range of companies. Based on data analysis, Chapter 5 discusses the recommendation on best practices for an effective foreign exchange risk management and conclusion.
management was to protect profit margins and the 55% said that one of the key objectives was to increase the predictability of margins. This means that foreign exchange risk management would benefit the stakeholders of an organization. Also the 67% of the respondents were of the view that currency volatility would significantly impact their business. Research conducted by Smart FX has found out that the change in exchange rates has made negative impact on the profits of 42 percent of small and medium sized enterprises. The CEO of Global Reach Partners, Stewart Blake, observes that half of small firms in UK are being negatively affected by fluctuations in the exchange rates (Masters, 2010). Based on the research he states that - the need for foreign exchange risk management to become central to everyday risk management has never been greater (NewswireToday, 2010). V Balakrishnan, Chief Financial Officer of Infosys (India) states that 1% fluctuation in the rupee-dollar rates would impact operational margins to about 40-basis point (Tejaswi, 2010). Hence it is very important for an organization to practice foreign exchange risk management techniques.
Hedging Techniques
Figure 3: Source: Adapted from Debasish, 2008
Forward Contracts:
Forward contracts are the most commonly used foreign exchange risk management technique by non-bank corporations. Forward contracts involve an agreement between two parties to buy/sell an amount of currency at a fixed price on a specified date in the future (Sivakumar & Sarkar, 2008). This will help to eliminate the foreign exchange exposure as the rate of exchange is already fixed for the future transaction. Hence, changes that take place between the contract date and the actual transaction date does not make any impact. The foreign exchange rates are locked for the future transaction and the future settlement date can be an exact date or any time between two agreed dates (Coyle, 2000). Ex: If an Indian company X wants to buy goods from a US company in Dollars after six months. Then X can get into an agreement (forward contract) to pay Rupees and buy dollars and the exchange rate can be fixed and locked in. As the contract is to be executed in the future it will not be affected by the then INR-USD exchange rate. One of the main advantages of forward contracts is that it can be tailor made to the specific needs of an organization. A company getting into a forward contract can only expect to upside benefit if there is any favorable movement in the foreign exchange rates but the contract does not provide any downside protection (Gandhi, 2006).
Currency Futures
Currency futures contract is an agreement between a buyer and seller and is similar to currency forward contracts. In a futures contract two parties get into an agreement to buy or sell a currency for a fixed amount at a specified time in the future, and it is traded on futures exchange (Debasish, 2008). Unlike forward contracts, futures contracts are more liquid as they are traded in an organized exchange. Futures make it possible to hedge currency depreciations by selling futures. Hedging of currency appreciations is possible by buying futures (Sivakumar & Sarkar, 2008). The incoming and outgoing cash flows of different currencies with respect to each other can be fixed by selling and purchasing currency futures (Gandhi, 2006). There are four important features of currency futures: they are standardized contracts, trading happens in 1 physical location or virtual location, Exchanges clearing houses are responsible for the settlement of contracts and contracts are revealed according to the market value (Clark &Ghosh, 2004). The example for currency forwards can be used here to. The only change here is that the company X has to purchase standardized dollar futures from US Dollar futures exchange. But the limit with the futures is that an organization cannot buy the futures for the exact amount required but has to buy standard denominations of currency (Sivakumar & Sarkar, 2008).
Currency Options
Currency options is an agreement which gives the owner of the agreement the right to buy or sell a specified amount of currency for a specified price over a given time period. Currency options give the owner of the agreement the right but it is not an obligation (Madura, 2009). The owner of the agreement can choose to sell or buy the currency or decide otherwise based on the exchange rates. The fixed price at which the owner can sell or buy the currency is called as strike price or the exercise price. It is possible to take advantage of the potential gains through currency options. Through currency options downside risks can be limited (Clark & Ghosh, 2004). The advantages of currency options can be best understood with an example. If an Indian company has to buy goods from the US in USD after six months, the company can buy a currency option. There are two possible scenarios here. First, if the dollar depreciates and the exchange rates turn out to be favorable, then the company can buy the currency at spot rate, as they are cheaper. On the other hand, if the dollar appreciates, than the spot rate will be higher than the strike price and hence the company can choose to use its right and purchase the currency at the strike price. Hence, in both cases the company will be paying the lowest price to purchase the dollar (Sivakumar & Sarkar, 2008).
Currency Swaps
A currency swap involves an agreement between two parties to exchange a principal amount of currency for the same principal amount of another currency (Chance & Brooks, 2010). The exchange of the currencies happens at the beginning of the deal. Each party would pay the interest for the exchanged currency at regular interval of time during the term of the loan. At maturity or at the termination of the loan period each party would re-exchange the principal amount in two currencies (Kevin, 2009). Coyle (2000) argues that a currency swap is an agreement made to buy/sell an exact amount of currency in exchange for the same amount of another currency at the spot exchange rates or an agreement is made to re-exchange the same amount of currency at pre-decided date at the same exchange rates or an agreement to exchange the interest costs for the duration of the swap. Hence each party would receive the same amount of currency that they had initially exchanged irrespective of the fluctuations in the exchange rates.
Foreign Debt
Foreign debts are an effective way to hedge the foreign exchange exposure (Chance & Brooks, 2010). This is supported by the International Fischer Effect relationship. To understand how foreign debts work, lets consider the example that a company is expected to receive a fixed amount of Euros at a specified time in the future. There is a possibility that the company can experience losses of the domestic currency appreciates against the Euros during the meantime. So in order to avoid this, company can take a loan in Euros for the same time period and convert the foreign currency into domestic currency at the spot exchange rate. But the company will have to pay interests for the loan, which the company must bare. This is where the International Fischer Effect plays a role. According to the theory profits gained by investing the proceeds will be equal to interest paid (foreign currency) for the loan (Sivakumar & Sarkar, 2008). Hence the company will not hedge the risk due to the foreign exchange exposure as it completely eliminates it.
Cross Hedging
Cross Hedging can be used when hedging of a particular foreign currency is not possible. Hedging of the foreign currency may not be possible when hedging facilities do not exist or it may not be a frequently traded currency (Madura, 2009). In such a scenario cross hedging can be employed. In cross hedging another foreign currency, which is correlated to the currency that can be hedged is selected and hedging is done in this currency. Even though hedging is done in a different currency, the effects would remain the same and hence cross hedging is an important technique that can be used by companies (Kevin, 2009).
Currency Diversification
The fluctuations in exchange rates are dependent on various factors. These factors are can be both specific to the respective country and global factors. There can be a pattern seen in changes in the exchange rates of different countries. The pattern is seen in both volatility and direction. A company that deals with the currencies of one or two foreign currencies will experience fluctuating cash flow values, which are in tune with the volatility of the exchange rates of the currency. But a company, which deals with numerous foreign currencies, would see exchange rate movements of different countries offsetting one another. Hence, currency diversification would be an important tool in foreign exchange risk management (Kevin, 2009).
risk management. The sampling of the study involved 501 non-banking Indian companies. The study identifies that the prime reason for hedging is the volatility reduction in cash flows. The paper identifies and discusses the various foreign exchange risk management techniques in detail. The study finds out that forward contracts are the most commonly used techniques by Indian firms and it is then followed by swaps and cross-currency options. He has also mentioned that the currency risk management in India is growing at very slow pace and there should be urgency shown in using better-suited hedging instruments appropriate for the firms while considering the impact of the foreign exchange. On the other hand Sivakumar and Sarkar (2008) in their paper Corporate Hedging for Foreign Exchange Risk in India evaluate the various alternatives available for Indian companies to hedge the foreign exchange risks. The paper studies various companies from various sectors and concludes that currency forwards and currency options are the most highly preferred hedging techniques used by Indian companies for short term hedging while swaps are preferred for long term hedging. They also discuss the various factors that influence the decision of the companies to hedge. Their research concluded that software companies in India have short term planning horizons when compared with high capital-intensive organizations. Figure 4 below shows that the top two Indian software companies namely TCS and Infosys, prefers to hedge using Options than forwards whereas capital intensive firms like Reliance industries, Maruti Udyog, Mahindra & Mahindra, Ranbaxy uses forward contracts and currency swaps, which shows their long term planning horizons as they involve longer gestation periods and heavy initial capitals. In general Indian firms choose short-term measures for hedging. The paper concludes that there is a need for rupee futures.
to come up with effective foreign exchange risk management tools that best suit the Indian software companies.
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