Understanding and Applying Risk Analysis in Aquaculture

FAO
ISSN 2070-7010
FISHERIES AND
AQUACULTURE
519
TECHNICAL
PAPER
519
Understanding and applying

risk analysis in aquaculture
Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture

Risk analysis is an objective, systematic, standardized and defensible method of assessing
the likelihood of negative consequences occurring due to a proposed action or activity
and the likely magnitude of those consequences, or, simply put, it is “science-based
decision-making”. Risk analysis has mainly been applied in assessing risks to society and the
environment posed by hazards created by or associated with aquaculture development,
e.g. risks of environmental degradation; introduction and spread of pathogens, pests and
invasive species; genetic impacts; unsafe foods; and negative social and economic impacts.
Risk analysis provides insights and assists in making decisions that will help avoid such
negative impacts and allows aquaculture development to proceed in a more socially and
environmentally responsible manner. An integrated approach to risk analysis will assist the
aquaculture sector in reducing risks to successful operations from both internal and external
hazards and can similarly contribute to protect the environment, society and other resource
users from adverse and often unpredicted impacts. This could lead to improved profitability
and sustainability of the sector, while at the same time improving the public’s perception of
aquaculture as a responsible, sustainable and environmentally-friendly activity.
ISBN 978-92-5-106152-7 ISSN 2070-7010
9 789251 061527
FAO
TC/M/I0490E/1/11.08/2000
Cover photos:
Left column, top to bottom: Fish farmers administering antibiotic treatment
to a suspected viral infection of fish, courtesy of M.B. Reantaso.
Middle column, top: Suminoe oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis), courtesy of E. Hallerman;
bottom: Mortalities of common carp in Indonesia due to koi herpes virus, courtesy of A. Sunarto.
Right column: Women sorting shrimp post-larvae at an Indian shrimp nursery, courtesy of M.J. Phillips.
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Understanding and applying FAO
FISHERIES AND
AQUACULTURE

TECHNICAL
PAPER
519
Edited by
Melba G. Bondad-Reantaso
Fishery Resources Officer (Aquaculture)
Aquaculture Management and Conservation Service
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department
Rome, Italy
James Richard Arthur

FAO Consultant
Barriere
British Columbia, Canada
and
Rohana P. Subasinghe
Senior Fishery Resources Officer (Aquaculture)
Rome, Italy
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS

Rome, 2008
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information
product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part
of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the
legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities,
or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific
companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does
not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to
others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.
The views expressed in this information product are those of the authors and
do not necessarily reflect the views of FAO.
ISBN 978-92-5-106152-7
All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information

product for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without
any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully
acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other
commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the copyright holders.
Applications for such permission should be addressed to:
Chief
Electronic Publishing Policy and Support Branch
Communication Division
FAO
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy
or by e-mail to:
[email protected]
© FAO 2008
Understanding and applying FAO
FISHERIES AND
AQUACULTURE
risk analysis in aquaculture TECHNICAL

PAPER
519
Edited by
Fishery Resources Officer (Aquaculture)
Rome, Italy
James Richard Arthur

FAO Consultant
Barriere
British Columbia, Canada
and
Senior Fishery Resources Officer (Aquaculture)
Rome, Italy
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS

Rome, 2008
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information
product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the
legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities,
or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific
companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does
not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others
of a similar nature that are not mentioned.
The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not
necessarily reflect the views of FAO.
ISBN 978-92-5-10...........
All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information

product for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without
any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully
acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other
commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the copyright holders.
Applications for such permission should be addressed to:
Chief
Electronic Publishing Policy and Support Branch
Communication Division
FAO
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy
or by e-mail to:
[email protected]
© FAO 2008
iii
Preparation of this document
A project “Application of risk analysis to aquaculture production” was undertaken in

2007 through a desk study and an expert workshop held in Rayong, Thailand, from
7 to 11 June 2007. The project culminated in the publication of this document, which is
presented in two parts.
Part 1 contains 12 technical papers presented during the expert workshop, contributed
by 23 specialists and peer-reviewed by nine experts. These include seven commissioned
sectoral review papers addressing the seven identified major risk sectors of aquaculture
production: pathogen risks, food safety and public health risks, genetic risks, ecological
risk assessment and management of exotic organisms, environmental risks, financial
risks and social risks, as well as an additional five contributed papers addressing the
following topics: general principles of risk analysis, introduced marine species risk
assessment, guidelines for ecological risk assessment of marine fish aquaculture, the
aquaculture insurance industry risk analysis process and risk analysis experiences from
small-scale shrimp farmers in India. Part 2 of this document contains the highlights of
the FAO/NACA Expert Workshop on Understanding and Applying Risk Analysis in
Aquaculture, with 42 experts participating.
The commissioned review papers and expert workshop were technically supervised
by Dr Melba B. Reantaso, Fishery Resources Officer and Dr Rohana P. Subasinghe,
Senior Fishery Resources Officer of the Aquaculture Management and Conservation
Service, Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Division of the FAO Fisheries and
Aquaculture Department.
The study, workshop and publication were made possible with financial assistance
through the Programme Cooperation Agreement of Norway under B.1 and D.1
objectives administered through the FishCode Programme of the FAO Fisheries and
Aquaculture Department and the Nutrition and Consumer Protection Division of the
FAO Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department, respectively.
iv
Abstract
As a food-producing sector, aquaculture has surpassed both capture fisheries and the
terrestrial farmed meat production systems in terms of average annual growth rate.
However, it has a number of biosecurity concerns that pose risks and hazards to both its
development and management, and to the aquatic environment and society. Aquaculture
faces risks similar to those of the agriculture sector. However, as aquaculture is very
diverse (in terms of species, environments, systems and practices), the range of hazards
and the perceived risks are complex. Multiple objectives are driving the application of
risk analysis to aquaculture. Foremost is for resource protection (human, animal and
plant health; aquaculture; wild fisheries and the general environment) as embodied in
international agreements and responsibilities. The other drivers of risk analysis are: (i)
food security, (ii) trade, (iii) consumer preference for high quality and safe products, (iv)
production profitability and (v) other investment and development objectives.
The expert workshop, using a series of seven review papers commissioned by the
desk study, focused on the importance and application of risk analysis to seven major
risk sectors of aquaculture production: pathogen risks, food safety and public health
risks, ecological (pests) risks, genetic risks, environmental risks, financial risks and social
risks. Part 1 of the document consists of 12 peer-reviewed technical papers relative to the
application of risk analysis to aquaculture that were prepared by 23 specialists papers
on: general principles of risk analysis, food safety and public health risks associated with
products of aquaculture, pathogen risk analysis, application of risk analysis to genetic
issues in aquaculture ecological risk assessment and management of exotic organisms,
introduced marine species risk assessment, guidelines for ecological risk assessment of
marine fish aquaculture, the aquaculture insurance industry risk analysis process and
risk analysis experiences from small-scale shrimp farmers in India. Part 2 contains the
detailed outcomes of the deliberations of 42 experts who developed the contents of a
Manual on the Application of Risk Analysis to Aquaculture, discussed in great length
the seven risk sectors and reached general conclusions and specific recommendations to
enhance the application of the risk analysis process to aquaculture production.
Risk analysis methods as applied to the seven risk sectors have many commonalities
but also many differences. An overriding feature is a firm foundation in drawing
upon the results of scientific studies, the use of logic or deductive reasoning and the
application of common sense in assessing risk and applying risk management measures.
General principles that apply to risk analysis for aquaculture include application of the
precautionary approach when dealing with uncertainty, transparency of the process,
consistency in methodolody, use of stakeholder consultation, application of high level of
stringency, use of minimal risk management interventions needed to achieve an acceptable
level of risk, the concept of unacceptable risk and recognition that some "risky" actions
cannot be managed and therefore should not be permitted under any circumstance, and
the concept of equivalence where alternative risk management measures achieving the
required level of protection are equally acceptable.
Bondad-Reantaso, M.G.; Arthur, J.R.; Subasinghe, R.P. (eds).

Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture.
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper. No. 519. Rome, FAO. 2008. 304p.
v
Contents
Preparation of this document iii

Abstract iv
Acknowledgements vii
Contributors viii
Reviewers x
Acronyms and abbreviations xi
Part 1 – CONTRIBUTED PAPERS ON UNDERSTANDING AND APPLYING

RISK ANALYSIS IN AQUACULTURE 1
General principles of the risk analysis process and its application to
aquaculture 3
J. Richard Arthur
Food safety and public health risks associated with products of aquaculture 9
Iddya Karunasagar
Pathogen risk analysis for aquaculture production 27
Melba G. Bondad-Reantaso and J. Richard Arthur
Application of risk analysis to genetic issues in aquaculture 47
Eric Hallerman
Ecological risk assessment and management of exotic organisms
associated with aquaculture activities 67
Kenneth M.Y. Leung and David Dudgeon
Application of risk analysis to environmental issues in aquaculture 101
Michael J. Phillips and Rohana P. Subasinghe
Introduced marine species risk assessment – aquaculture 121
Marnie L. Campbell and Chad L. Hewitt
Guidelines for ecological risk assessment of marine fish aquaculture 135
Colin E. Nash, Peter R. Burbridge and John K. Volkman
Financial risk analysis in aquaculture 153
Lotus E. Kam and Pingsun Leung
Social risks in aquaculture 209
Pedro B. Bueno
Aquaculture insurance industry risk analysis processes 229
Philip A.D. Secretan
Risk analysis in aquaculture – experiences from small-scale shrimp
farmers of India 247
N.R. Umesh, C.V. Mohan, M.J. Phillips, B.V. Bhat, G. Ravi Babu,
A.B. Chandra Mohan and P.A. Padiyar
PART 2 – PROCEEDINGS OF THE FAO/NACA EXPERT WORKSHOP ON

UNDERSTANDING AND APPLYING RISK ANALYSIS IN AQUACULTURE,
RAYONG, THAILAND, 7–11 JUNE 2007 255
Background 257
FAO initiatives in risk analysis for aquaculture and aquatic species 257
The current project: “Application of risk analysis in aquaculture production” 258
vi
Technical workshop 259

Purpose 259
Participation 259
Process 260
Working group findings 265
Working Group 1: Development of the contents of the Manual on
Understanding and Applying Risk Analysis in Aquaculture 265
Working Group 2: Identification and grouping of hazard categories
and assessment methodologies 265
Working Group 3: Hazards identification with emphasis on social,
financial/economic and cultural aspects 279
Conclusions and recommendations 281
Annexes 287
1 Experts and expert profiles 287
2 Expert workshop programme 301
3 Expert workshop group photo 304
vii
Acknowledgements
This publication is an outcome of the contributions of the many individuals who

participated in this project beginning with the desk study, through to the expert
workshop and then to the final publication of this document. They are all gratefully
acknowledged.
Thanks are also due to Prof. Sena de Silva, Mr Hassanai Kongkeo and Ms Rouella
Udomlarp of the Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the Pacific (NACA)
for logistic arrangements. Special thanks go to the various institutions, agencies and
projects that provided support for the participation of many experts. These are:
Australia’s Division of Primary Industries (Victoria); Australia’s Department of
Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Australian Maritime College; Australian Rivers
Institute; Canada’s Department of Fisheries and Oceans; China, Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region’s Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department; Marine
Biosecurity Education Consortium; Thailand’s Department of Fisheries; the Secretariat
of the Pacific Community; and the World Wildlife Fund. The authors and reviewers
of contributed papers and the workshop participants are sincerely acknowledged for
making this publication possible. The editors would also like to thank F. Schatto and
T. Farmer of the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Information and Statistics Service
and J.L. Castilla (desktop publisher) for various types of assistance during the final
production of this document. J. Jia, D. Bartley, D. Soto, M. Halwart, I. Karunasagar,
S. Siar, J. Collins and S. Borghesi of the FAO Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture;
and J. Clausen of the FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific are gratefully
acknowledged for support, guidance and encouragement. Last but not least, E. Reynolds
and A. Fabiani of the FAO FishCode Programme and E. Boutriff (FAO or Nutrition
and Consumer Protection Division) and M. Robson (FAO Plant Production and
Protection Division) for administering funding support through FAO’s Cooperation
Agreement with Norway.
viii
Contributors
J. Richard Arthur Barriere, B.C., Canada V0E 1E0
G. Ravi Babu National Center for Sustainable Aquaculture, 69-17-8,

SBI Officers, Colony, Rajendra Nagar,
Kakinada-533003, AP, India
B.V. Bhat Marine Products Export Development Authority

(MPEDA), MPEDA House, Panampilly Avenue,
PB 4272, Cochin 682036, India
Melba G. Bondad-Reantaso FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department,

Rome, Italy
Pedro B. Bueno Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the

Pacific (NACA), Bangkok 10903, Thailand
Peter R. Burbridge University of Newcastle (Rtd), Perthshire PH6 2JS,

Scotland, United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland
Marnie L. Campbell Australian Maritime College, Victoria, Australia
David Dudgeon The University of Hong Kong, China,

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,
People’s Republic of China
Eric Hallerman Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University,

Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America
Chad L. Hewitt Australian Maritime College, Victoria, Australia
Lotus E. Kam University of Hawaii,

Mānoa, Hawaii, United States of America
Iddya Karunasagar FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department,

Rome, Italy
Kenneth M.Y. Leung The University of Hong Kong, China,

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People’s
Republic of China
Pingsun Leung University of Hawaii,

Mānoa, Hawaii, United States of America
A.B. Chandra Mohan National Center for Sustainable Aquaculture, 69-17-8,

SBI Officers, Colony, Rajendra Nagar,
ix
C.V. Mohan Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the

Pacific (NACA),
Bangkok 10903, Thailand
Colin E. Nash National Marine Fisheries Station,

Manchester, Washington, United States of America
P.A. Padiyar Food And Agriculture Organization of the United

Nations, Rehabilitation Support Coordination Unit,
Jl. Angsa No. 12, Ateuk Deah Tanoh, Banda Aceh,
2344, Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, Indonesia
Michael J. Phillips Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the

Pacific (NACA),
Philip A.D. Secretan AUMS Ltd.,

East Sussex, BN7 2RJ,
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Rohana P. Subasinghe FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department,

Rome, Italy
N.R. Umesh National Center for Sustainable Aquaculture,

69-17-8, SBI Officers, Colony, Rajendra Nagar,
John K. Volkman CSIRO Marine Research,

Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
x
Reviewers
Peter Appleford Department of Primary Industries,

Victoria, Australia
J. Richard Arthur Barriere, BC, Canada
Devin Bartley FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department,

Rome, Italy
Malcolm Beveridge The WorldFish Center – Cairo Office,

Cairo, Egypt
Pedro B. Bueno Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the

Pacific (NACA),
Bangkok, Thailand
Jeffrey P. Fisher ENVIRON International Corp., Seattle,

Washington, United States of America
John Hambrey Hambrey Consulting, Ross-shire,

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Doris Soto FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department,

Rome, Italy
Raymon van Anrooy FAO Subregional Office for Central Asia,

Ankara, Turkey
xi
Acronyms and abbreviations
AAPQIS Aquatic Animal Pathogen and Quarantine Information

System
ADB Asian Development Bank
ADCP acoustic doppler current profiler
AHP analytic hierarchy process
AIDS Auto-immune deficiency syndrome
ALARA as low as reasonably achieved
ALOP appropriate level of protection
ALOR acceptable level of risk
APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
ANP Analytic Network Process
ANS Aquatic Nuisance Species
AQIS Australian Quarantine Inspection Service
ASFA Aquatic Science and Fisheries Abstracts
ASP amnesic shellfish poisoning
BDNs Bayesian decision networks
BMPs better management practices
BP Baculovirus penaei
CAB Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau
CAC Codex Alimentarius Commission
CART categorical and regression tree analysis
CBD Convention on Biological Diversity
CCFH Codex Committee on Food Hygiene
CCRF Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries
CDFs cumulative distributions functions
CE consequence of establishment
CRS corporate social responsibility
DAFF Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
DFA discriminant function analysis
DIAS Database on Introductions of Aquatic Species
DNA deoxyribonucleic acid
DO dissolved oxygen
DSP diarrhetic shellfish poisoning
DTs decision trees
Eh redox potential
EIA environmental impact assessment
EIFAC European Inland Fisheries Advisory Commission
ER economic rent
ERA ecological risk assessment
EU European Union
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FCR food conversion ratio
FCS frozen commodity shrimp
FEAP Federation of European Aquaculture Producers
FSO Food Safety Objective
GAP good aquaculture practices
GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
xii
GESAMP Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine

Environmental Protection
GIS geographic information system
GMOs genetically modified organisms
HACCP Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point
HPV hepatopancreatic parvo-like virus
HSNO hazardous substances and new organisms
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
ICES International Council for the Exploration of the Sea
IHHNV infectious hypodermal and haematopoietic necrosis virus
IMO International Maritime Organization
IRA import risk analysis
IRR internal rate of return
ISI Institute for Science Information
ISSG Invasive Species Specialist Group
IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature
KSh Keynan shillings
LOVV lymphoid organ vacuolization virus
LP linear program
MCDM multicriteria decision making
MFF Ministry of Fisheries and Forestry (Fiji)
MOP multiple objective programming
MOTAD minimization of total absolute deviations
MPEDA Marine Products Export Development Authority
MrNV Macrobrachium rosenbergii nodavirus
NAAHP National Aquatic Animal Health Programme
NACA Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the Pacific
NaCSA National Center for Sustainable Aquaculture
NBCR net benefit-cost ratio
NGO non-governmental organization
NHP necrotising hepatopancreatitis
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NPV net present value
NRC National Research Council
OIA organism impact assessment
OIE World Organisation for Animal Health (formerly Office
international des epizooties)
ORP organism risk potential
PCBs polychlorinated biphenyls
PCR polymerase chain reaction
PE Probability of Establishment
PICTs Pacific Island Countries and Territories
PL postlarvae
PRA pathogen risk analysis
PRP pathway risk potential
PSP paralytic shellfish poisoning
RA risk analysis
RAS recirculating aquaculture systems
RPS rhabdovirus of penaeid shrimp
SEAFDEC Southeast Asian Fisheries Development Center
SGS sediment grain size
SPC Secretariat of the Pacific Community
xiii
SPF specific pathogen free

SPS Agreement Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and
Phytosanitary Measures
STDF Standards and Trade Development Facility
TCP Technical Cooperation Project
TDH thermostable direct hemolysin
TMDL total maximum daily loads
TOTALPOLL total pollution
TRH TDH-related hemolysin
TSV Taura syndrome virus
TVS total volatile solids
UN United Nations
UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
UNESCO-IOC United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization-Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
USA United States of America
USDA United States Department of Agriculture
USEPA United States Environmental Protection Agency
VOI value of information
YHV yellow head virus
WB World Bank
WHO World Health Organization
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WSD white spot disease
WSSV white spot syndrome virus
WTD white tail disease
WTO World Trade Organization
XG foreign exchange earnings
XSV extra small virus
1
PART 1
Contributed papers
on
Understanding and applying risk
analysis in aquaculture
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faccumsandio eu faccums andrero diat. Duipisc iduisit at ut la.
3
General principles of the risk

analysis process and its application
to aquaculture
J. Richard Arthur
FAO Consultant
Box 1216
Barriere, B.C., Canada V0E 1E0
[email protected]
Arthur, J.R. 2008. General principles of the risk analysis process and its application
to aquaculture. In M.G. Bondad-Reantaso, J.R. Arthur and R.P. Subasinghe (eds).
Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture. FAO Fisheries and
Aquaculture Technical Paper. No. 519. Rome, FAO. pp. 3–8.
ABSTRACT
Governments and the private sector must often make decisions based on incomplete
knowledge and a high degree of uncertainty and where such decisions may have far-
reaching social, environmental and economic consequences. Risk analysis is a process
that provides a flexible framework within which the risks of adverse consequences
resulting from a course of action can be evaluated in a systematic science-based manner.
It permits a defendable decision to be made on whether a particular risk is acceptable or
not, and the means to evaluate possible ways to reduce a risk from an unacceptable level
to one that is acceptable.
Risk analysis is now widely applied in many fields, for example, in decisions
about risks due to chemical and physical stressors (natural disasters, climate change,
contaminants in food and water, pollution, etc.); biological stressors (human, plant and
animal pathogens; plant and animal pests; invasive species, invasive genetic material);
social and economic stressors (public security (including risk of terrorism), construction
and engineering (building safety, fire safety, military applications), and business (project
operations, insurance, litigation, credit, cost risk maintenance, etc.).
The general framework for risk analysis consists of four major components:
• Hazard identification – the process of identifying hazards that could potentially
produce consequences.
• Risk assessment – the process of evaluating the likelihood that a potential hazard
will be realized and estimating the biological, social and/or economic consequences
of its realization.
• Risk management – the seeking of means to reduce either the likelihood or the
consequences of it going wrong; and
• Risk communication – the process by which stakeholders are consulted, information and
opinions gathered and risk analysis results and management measures communicated.
Some basic principles that appear to be common to all types of risk analysis include
those of common sense, uncertainty, precaution, objectivity, transparency, consistency,
scientific validation, stakeholder consultation, stringency, minimal risk management,
unacceptable risk and equivalence.
4 Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture
Risk analysis has wide applicability to aquaculture. It has mainly been applied in
assessing risks to society and the environment posed by hazards created by or associated
with aquaculture development. These include the risks of environmental degradation;
introduction and spread of pathogens, pests and invasive species; genetic impacts; unsafe
foods; and negative social and economic impacts. The use of risk analysis can provide
insights and assist in making decisions that will help to avoid such negative impacts, thus
helping aquaculture development to proceed in a more socially and environmentally
responsible manner.
Risk analysis is less commonly used to achieve successful and sustainable aquaculture
by assessing the risks to aquaculture posed by the physical, social and economic
environment in which it takes place. These include reduction of environmental risks (e.g.
due to poor siting or severe weather events), biological risks (infection by pathogens via
transfer from native stocks, predation by seals and sharks; red tides, etc.), operational
risks (poor planning, work-related injuries), financial risks (e.g. market changes, currency
fluctuations, emergence of new competitors, etc.) and social risks (negative image and
resulting product boycott, lack of skilled manpower, competition from other sectors).
There exists, therefore, considerable scope to develop and expand the use of risk
analysis for the benefit of aquaculture and the social and physical environments in which
it takes place.
INTRODUCTION
Governments and the private sector must often make decisions based on incomplete
knowledge and a high degree of uncertainty. Such decisions may have far-reaching
social, environmental and economic consequences. Risk analysis is a process that
provides a flexible framework within which the risks of adverse consequences resulting
from a course of action can be evaluated in a systematic, science-based manner. The
risk analysis approach permits a defendable decision to be made on whether the risk
posed by a particular action or “hazard” is acceptable or not, and provides the means
to evaluate possible ways to reduce the risk from an unacceptable level to one that is
acceptable.
Risk analysis is now widely applied in many fields that touch our daily lives. These
include decisions about risks due to chemical and physical stressors (natural disasters,
climate change, contaminants in food and water, pollution etc.), biological stressors
(human, plant and animal pathogens; plant and animal pests; invasive species, invasive
genetic material), social and economic stressors (unemployment, financial losses, public
security, including risk of terrorism), construction and engineering (building safety,
fire safety, military applications) and business (project operations, insurance, litigation,
credit, cost risk maintenance etc.). Risk analysis is thus a pervasive but often unnoticed
component of modern society that is used by governments, private sector and individuals
in the political, scientific, business, financial, social sciences and other communities.
THE CONCEPT OF RISK

The definition of “risk” varies somewhat depending on the sector. Most definitions
incorporate the concepts of:
• uncertainty of outcome (of an action or situation),
• probability or likelihood (of an unwanted event occurring), and
• consequence or impact (if the unwanted event happens).
Thus “risk” is the potential for realization of unwanted, adverse consequences
to human life, health, property or the environment. Its estimation involves both the
likelihood (probability) of a negative event occurring as the result of a proposed action
and the consequences that will result if it does happen. As an example, taken from
pathogen risk analysis, the Aquatic Animal Health Code (OIE, 2007) defines risk as:
General principles of the risk analysis process and its application to aquaculture 5
“Risk – means the likelihood of the occurrence and the likely magnitude of the
consequences of an adverse event to public, aquatic animal or terrestrial animal health
in the importing country during a specified time period.”
While some sectors incorporate consideration of potential benefits that may result
from a “risk” being realized (e.g. financial risk analysis), others specifically exclude
benefits from being taken into account (e.g. pathogen risk analysis).
WHAT IS RISK ANALYSIS?

“Risk analysis” is usually defined either by its components and/or its processes.
The Society for Risk Analysis www.sera.org offers the following definitions of “risk
analysis”:
• a detailed examination including risk assessment, risk evaluation and risk
management alternatives, performed to understand the nature of unwanted,
negative consequences to human life, health, property or the environment;
• an analytical process to provide information regarding undesirable events;
• the process of quantification of the probabilities and expected consequences for
identified risks.
In can also be defined as an objective, systematic, standardized and defensible
method of assessing the likelihood of negative consequences occurring due to a proposed
action or activity and the likely magnitude of those consequences, or, simply put, it is
“science-based decision-making”.
The risk analysis process

In simple terms, a risk analysis typically seeks to answer four questions:
• What can go wrong?
• How likely is it to go wrong?
• What would be the consequences of its going wrong?
• What can be done to reduce either the likelihood or the consequences of its going
wrong? (see MacDiarmid, 1997; Rodgers, 2004; Arthur et al., 2004).
The general framework for risk analysis typically consists of four major components:
• Hazard identification – the process of identifying hazards that could potentially
produce consequences;
• Risk assessment – the process of evaluating the likelihood that a potential hazard
will be realized and estimating the biological, social and/or economic consequences
of its realization;
• Risk management – the seeking of means to reduce either the likelihood or the
consequences of it going wrong; and
• Risk communication – the process by which stakeholders are consulted,
information and opinions gathered and risk analysis results and management
measures communicated.
The risk analysis process is quite flexible. Its structure and components will vary
considerably depending on the sector (e.g. technical, social or financial), the user (e.g.
government, company or individual), the scale (e.g. international, local or entity-level)
and the purpose (e.g. to gain understanding of the processes that determine risk or
to form the basis for legal measures). It can be qualitative (probabilities of events
happening expressed, for example, as high, medium or low) or quantitative (numerical
probabilities).
The concept of “hazard”

All risk analysis sectors involve the assessment of risk posed by a threat or “hazard”.
The definition of “hazard” depends on the sector and the perspective from which risk
is viewed (e.g. risks to aquaculture or risks from aquaculture). A hazard thus can be:
• a physical agent having the potential to cause harm, for example:

– a biological pathogen (pathogen risk analysis);
– an aquatic organism that is being introduced or transferred (genetic risk
analysis, ecological risk analysis, invasive alien species risk analysis);
– a chemical, heavy metal or biological contaminant (human health and food
safety risk analysis, environmental risk analysis); or
• the inherent capacity or property of a physical agent or situation to cause adverse
affects, as in
• social risk analysis,
• financial risk analysis, and
• environmental risk analysis.
Risk analysis terminology

The terminology used by some risk analysis sectors is well established (e.g. pathogen
risk analysis, food safety, environmental risk analysis), and there is often considerable
differences in how individual terms are defined. An attempt at cross-sectoral
standardization of terms is thus probably futile, and it is thus important that that terms
used by the various risk analysis sectors be fully defined at the outset.
SOME GENERAL PRINCIPLES

Some basic principles that appear to be common to all types of risk analysis are presented
below. These involve the broader concepts of common sense, uncertainty, precaution,
objectivity, transparency, consistency, scientific validation, stakeholder consultation,
stringency, minimal risk management, unacceptable risk and equivalence.
• The Principle of Common Sense – In assessing risks, the use of “common
sense” should prevail. In many cases, the outcomes of a risk analysis are obvious
and uncontroversial, and a decision can be made without resulting to a full risk
analysis, which can be a lengthy and expensive process.
• The Principle of Uncertainty – All risk analyses contain an element of uncertainty.
A good risk analysis will seek to reduce uncertainty to the extent possible.
• The Principle of Precaution – Those involved in the aquaculture sector have a
responsibility to err on the side of caution, particularly if the outcomes of a given
action may be irreversible. If the level of uncertainty is high, the Precautionary
Principle can be applied to delay a decision until key information is obtained.
However, steps must be taken to obtain the information in a timely manner.
• The Principle of Objectivity – Risk analyses should be conducted in the most
objective way possible. However, due to uncertainty and human nature, a high
degree of subjectivity may be present in some risk analyses. A risk analysis should
clearly indicate where subjective decisions have been made.
• The Principle of Transparency – Risk analyses, particularly those conducted by
public sector agencies, should be fully transparent, so that all stakeholders can
see how decisions were reached. This includes full documentation of all data,
sources of information, assumptions, methods, results, constraints, discussions
and conclusions.
• The Principle of Consistency – Although risk analysis methodology continues
to evolve, it is important that decisions, particularly those made by government,
are reached via standardized methods and procedures. In theory, two risk analysts
independently conducting the same risk analysis should reach roughly similar
conclusions.
• The Principle of Scientific Validation – The scientific basis of a risk analysis and
the conclusions drawn should be validated by independent expert review.
• The Principle of Stakeholder Consultation – If the results of a risk analysis are
likely to be of interest to, or impact upon others, then stakeholder consultations
General principles of the risk analysis process and its application to aquaculture 7
should be held. This is accomplished by risk communication, the interactive

exchange of information on risk among risk assessors, risk managers and other
interested parties. Ideally, stakeholders should be informed/involved throughout
the entire risk analysis process, particularly for potentially contentious risk
analyses (e.g. ecological, genetic and pathogen risk analyses for the introduction
of new aquatic species).
• The Principle of Stringency – The stringency of the risk management measures
to be applied should be in direct proportion to the risk involved.
• The Principle of Minimal Risk Management – Risk management measures that
impinge on the legitimate activities of others should be applied only to the extent
necessary to reduce risk to an acceptable level.
• The Principle of Unacceptable Risk – If the level of risk is unacceptable and no
effective or acceptable risk management measures are possible, then the activity
should not take place.
• The Principle of Equivalence – Risk management measures proposed by trading
partners that meet the acceptable level of risk should be accepted by the importing
country.
APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TO AQUACULTURE

Risk analysis has wide applicability to aquaculture. So far, it has mainly been
applied in assessing risks to society and the environment posed by hazards created
by or associated with aquaculture development (Box 1). These include the risks of
environmental degradation; introduction and spread of pathogens, pests and invasive
species; genetic impacts; unsafe foods; and negative social and economic impacts. The
use of risk analysis can provide insights and assist in making decisions that will help
to avoid such negative impacts, thus helping aquaculture development to proceed in a
more socially and environmentally responsible manner.
Risk analysis is less commonly used to
achieve successful and sustainable aquaculture
by assessing the risks to aquaculture posed by BOX 1
the physical, social and economic environment Examples of risks to society from
in which it takes place Box 2. These include aquaculture
reduction of environmental risks (e.g. due to
poor siting or severe weather events), biological Environmental risks
risks (infection by pathogens via transfer • pollution from feeds, drugs, chemicals,
from native stocks, predation by seals and wastes
sharks; red tides etc.), operational risks (poor • alteration of water currents & flow
planning, work-related injuries), financial risks patterns
(e.g. market changes, currency fluctuations, Biological risks
emergence of new competitors, etc.) and social • introduction of invasive alien species,
risks (negative image and resulting product exotic pests & pathogens
boycott, lack of skilled manpower, competition • genetic impacts on native stocks
from other sectors). • destruction/modification of ecosystems
There exists, therefore, considerable scope and agricultural lands (mangrove
to develop and expand the use of risk analysis deforestation, salination of ricelands)
for the benefit of aquaculture and the social and Financial risks
physical environments in which it takes place. • failure of farming operations
• collapse of local industry/sector
CONCLUSIONS Social risks
An integrated approach to risk analysis will • displacement of artisanal fishers
assist the aquaculture sector in reducing risks Human health risks
to successful operations from both internal • food safety issues
and external hazards and can similarly help
to protect the environment, society and

BOX 2 other resource users from adverse and often
Examples of risks to aquaculture from unpredicted impacts. This could lead to
society and the environment improved profitability and sustainability of
the sector, while at the same time improving
Environmental risks the public’s perception of aquaculture as a
• severe weather patterns responsible, sustainable and environmentally
• pollution (e.g. agricultural chemicals, oil friendly activity.
spills)
Biological risks REFERENCES
• pathogen transfer from wild stocks Arthur, J.R., Bondad-Reantaso, M., Baldock,
• local predators (seals, sharks etc.) F.C., Rodgers, C.J. & Edgerton, B.F. 2004.
• toxic algal blooms, red tide Manual on risk analysis for the safe movement
Operational risks of aquatic animals (FWG/01/2002). APEC/DoF/
• poor planning NACA/FAO, APEC Publ. No. APEC #203-FS-
• poor design 03.1. 59 pp.
• workplace injuries MacDiarmid, S.C. 1997. Risk analysis, international
Financial risks trade, and animal health. In Fundamentals of risk
• market changes analysis and risk management. pp. 377–387. Boca
• inadequate financing Raton, CRC Lewis Publications.
• currency fluctuations OIE. 2007. Aquatic animal health code. 10th Edn.
• emergence of new competitors World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris
Social risks (available at: www.oie.int).
• negative image/press Rodgers, C.J. 2004. Risk analysis in aquatic
• lack of skilled manpower animal health. In J.R. Arthur & M.G. Bondad-
• competition for key resources from other Reantaso, eds. Capacity and awareness building
sectors on import risk analysis for aquatic animals.
• theft, vandalism Proceedings of the Workshops held 1–6 April
2002 in Bangkok, Thailand and 12–17 August
2002 in Mazatlan, Mexico. APEC FWG 01/2002,
Bangkok, NACA.
9
Food safety and public health

risks associated with products of
aquaculture
Iddya Karunasagar
Fish Products and Industry Division
Fisheries and Aquaculture Department
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla
00153 Rome, Italy
[email protected]
Karunasagar, I. 2008. Food safety and public health risks associated with products
of aquaculture. In M.G. Bondad-Reantaso, J.R. Arthur and R.P. Subasinghe (eds).
ABSTRACT
The Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement within the framework of the World
Trade Organization emphasizes the need to apply risk analysis as a basis for taking
any SPS measure. With the adoption of the food-chain approach for food safety, the
responsibility for the supply of safe food is shared along the entire food chain from
primary production to final consumption. Thus the application of risk analysis to the
aquaculture sector, which produces nearly half the fish that is consumed worldwide, has
become very important. Guidelines for performing risk analysis have been brought out
by the Codex Alimentarius Commission or Codex. Risk analysis is a process consisting
of risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Risk assessment is the
scientific evaluation of known or potential adverse health effects resulting from human
exposure to foodborne hazards. This consists of four steps: hazard identification, hazard
characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. The output of risk
assessment may be a qualitative or a quantitative (numerical) expression of risk as well
as attendant uncertainties. Hazard identification considers epidemiological data linking
the food and biological/chemical agent to human illness and the certainty associated with
such effects. At the hazard characterization step, a qualitative or quantitative description
of the severity and the duration of the adverse health effect that may result from the
ingestion of the micro-organism/toxin/chemical contaminants is made. During exposure
assessment, an estimate of the number of bacteria or the level of a biotoxin or chemical
agent consumed through the concerned food is made. The Codex defines the risk
characterization step as the process of determining the qualitative and/or quantitative
estimation including attendant uncertainties of the probability of occurrence and the
severity of the known or potential adverse health effect in a given population based on
hazard identification, exposure assessment and hazard characterization. As an example of
a risk assessment, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/World
Health Organization risk assessment for choleragenic Vibrio cholerae in warmwater
shrimp in international trade is presented. Risk management is the process of weighing
policy alternatives in the light of the results of risk assessment and if required, selecting
and implementing appropriate control options, including regulatory measures. Risk
communication is an interactive process of exchange of information and opinion on
risk among risk assessors, risk managers and other interested parties. Examples of risk
management measures adopted based on risk assessment are presented.
INTRODUCTION
Outbreaks of food-borne illnesses continue to be a major problem worldwide,
and international trade in food products is increasing. According to World Health
Organization (WHO) estimates, 1.8 million deaths related to contaminated food
or water occur every year. Traditionally, food safety programmes have focused on
enforcement mechanisms for final products and removal of unsafe food from the
market instead of a preventive approach. In such a model, the responsibility for safe
food tends to concentrate on the food-processing sector. The Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is recommending a food-chain approach
that encompasses the whole food chain from primary production to final consumption.
In such a system, the responsibility for a supply of food that is safe, healthy and
nutritious is shared along the entire food chain by all involved in the production,
processing, trade and consumption of food. Stakeholders include farmers, fishermen,
processors, transport operators (raw and processed material) and consumers, as well
as governments obliged to protect public health. In order to protect public health
and facilitate international food trade, the member countries of the World Trade
Organization (WTO) have signed the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement.
Under this agreement, member countries have a right to take measures to ensure that
consumers are supplied with safe food, but they also have the obligation to ensure that
their food safety regulations are based on risk analysis and are not arbitrary and used
as a means to protect domestic producers from competition. Considering that nearly
50 percent of the fish traded in international markets comes from aquaculture, it is
important to ensure that the aquaculture sector is producing safe food. The food-chain
approach to food safety is based on five important aspects:
• The three fundamental concepts of risk analysis – risk assessment, risk management
and risk communication – should be incorporated into food safety. There
should be an institutional separation of science-based risk assessment from risk
management, which is the regulation and control of risk.
• Traceability from the primary producer (including fish feed) through post-
harvest treatments, food processing and distribution to the consumer should be
improved.
• Harmonization of food safety standards is necessary; this implies increased
development and wider use of internationally agreed-upon, scientifically based
standards. The Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Agreement of WTO tries
to achieve this by ensuring that arbitrary standards do not become barriers to
international trade.
• Equivalence of food safety systems that achieve similar levels of protection
against food-borne hazards, whatever means of control are used. This is a
requirement under the SPS Agreement.
• Increased emphasis on risk avoidance or prevention at source within the whole
food chain – from farm or sea to plate – is necessary to complement conventional
food safety management based on regulation and control.
Complementing the current emphasis on regulation and control of the food safety
system with preventive measures to control the introduction of contamination at
source requires the adoption of practices in food production, handling and processing
that reduce the risk of microbiological, chemical and physical hazards entering the food
FIGURE 1
The risk analysis process
Risk analysis
Risk assessment Risk management Risk communication
Hazard identification Hazard characterization Exposure assessment
Risk characterization
chain. There are some hazards such as chemical contaminants and biotoxins in shellfish
that cannot be simply removed from foodstuffs. The adoption of sound practices along
the food chain based on principles defined in Good Aquaculture Practices (GAP) and
in-plant control of food processing based on hazard analysis and critical control point
(HACCP) analysis is important to prevent such hazards from entering the system.
By using a risk-based approach to the management of food safety, food control
resources can be directed to those hazards posing the greatest threat to public health
and where the potential gains from risk reduction are large relative to the resource use.
Establishing risk-based priorities requires sound scientific knowledge and effective
systems for reporting the incidence of food-borne diseases.
Guidelines for performing risk analysis have been brought out by the Codex
Alimentarius Commission (CAC). According to Codex, risk analysis is a process
consisting of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. Risk
assessment is a scientifically based process involving the following four steps: hazard
identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization
(Figure 1).
THE RISK ANALYSIS PROCESS
Hazard identification
This involves identification of biological or chemical agents capable of causing adverse
health effects that may be present in a particular food or group of foods. Products of
aquaculture include freshwater and marine finfish as well as shellfish (molluscs and
crustaceans). Hazard identification considers epidemiological data linking the food
and biological/chemical agent to human illness (CCFH, 1998) and the certainty and
uncertainty associated with such effects. Data from national surveillance programmes,
microbiological and clinical investigations, and process evaluation studies are important
(Fazil, 2005). At the hazard identification step, a qualitative evaluation of available
information is carried out and documented. The characteristics of the organism/toxin/
chemical agent, including its effects on the host and mode of action, are considered.
Table 1 lists known or potential hazards associated with products of aquaculture.
Based on epidemiological evidence, only a few microbial agents are known to be
involved in foodborne illnesses; however, only a small number of outbreaks have
been adequately investigated. Therefore, limitations of hazard identification with
respect to biological agents include the expense and difficulty involved in outbreak
investigations, and the difficulties involved in the isolation and characterization of
certain pathogens such as viruses. However, for most chemical agents, clinical and
epidemiological data are unlikely to be available. Since the statistical power of most
TABLE 1
Biological and chemical hazards associated with aquaculture products
Known or potential hazard Product likely to be affected Epidemiological
evidence
Biological agents
Bacteria
Vibrio vulnificus Molluscan shellfish Strong
V. parahaemolyticus Shellfish Strong
V. cholerae Fish and shellfish Very weak
Salmonella Fish and shellfish Very weak
Viruses
Norovirus Molluscan shellfish Strong
Hepatitis A virus Molluscan shellfish Strong
Parasites
Fish-borne trematodes (Opisthorchis viverrini, Finfish Strong
Clonorchis sinensis)
Biotoxins
Paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) Molluscan shellfish Strong
Diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) Molluscan shellfish Strong
Amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP) Molluscan shellfish Strong
Neurotoxic shellfish poisoning (NSP) Molluscan shellfish Strong
Chemical agents
Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) Finfish and shellfish Epidemiological
Pesticides Finfish and shellfish data lacking
epidemiological investigations is inadequate to detect effects at relatively low levels in

human populations, negative epidemiological evidence is difficult to interpret for risk
assessment purposes. Where positive epidemiological data are available, consideration
should be given to variability in human susceptibility, genetic predisposition, age-related
and gender-related susceptibility, and the impact of factors such as socio-economic and
nutritional status. Due to a paucity of epidemiological data, hazard characterization
may have to rely on data derived from animal and in vitro studies.
Some examples of hazard identification are given in Box 1.
Exposure assessment
At this step, an estimate of the number of bacteria or the level of a biotoxin or a chemical
agent consumed through the concerned food is made. This involves documenting the
sources of contamination, frequency, concentration and estimation of the probability
and the concentration that will be consumed. This requires information on the pathogen
(e.g. ecology of the microbial pathogen, distribution, growth, inhibition or inactivation
during handling and processing), on the food (food composition – pH, water activity,
nutrient content, presence of antimicrobial agents, competing microflora; processing
practices; handling at retail and consumer preparation practices), and on the consumer
(population demographics, food consumption patterns).
Primarily, exposure assessment is concerned with estimating the likelihood of being
exposed to the hazard through consumption of the food under consideration and the
amount or dose to which an individual or population is exposed. Microbial hazards
are much more dynamic as compared to chemical hazards because of the potential of
micro-organisms to multiply in foods or their numbers being reduced due to handling,
processing or storing (e.g. freezing) of foods and consumer preparation (e.g. cooking)
steps that may inactivate them. With respect to microbial toxins, a combination of the
microbes’ characteristics and the chemical-like effects of the toxin are to be considered.
Data on the concentration of the pathogen in the food at the time of consumption
are rarely available and therefore, it is necessary to develop models or assumptions
to estimate the likely exposure. For bacteria, the growth and death of the organism
under the predicted handling and processing conditions of the food are considered
in the model, which would take into account the effects on the pathogen due to time,
temperature, food chemistry and the presence of competing microflora. However,
biological agents like viruses and parasites do not multiply in foods. In these cases,
handling, storage and processing conditions may affect their survival.
BOX 1
Some examples of hazard identification
Vibrio vulnificus occurs in warm estuarine environments all over the world and three
biotypes have been reported (Bisharat and Raz, 1997; Bisharat et al., 1999; Strom and
Paranjpye, 2000). Nearly all human cases resulting from seafood consumption are due to
Biotype 1. Biotype 2 is associated with infections in cultured eel and Biotype 3 is limited
to wound infections associated with handling cultured fish in ponds. Annually, about
30–40 cases of primary septicaemia due to Biotype 1 are reported from the United States
of America, but there is little epidemiological evidence of cases in other countries. Nearly
all cases are associated with consumption of raw oysters harvested from the Gulf coast.
Although foodborne V. vulnificus infections are rare, case fatality ratio is high, exceeding
50 percent (Hlady and Klontz, 1996; Mead et al., 1999). Individuals with pre-existing
liver diseases are at the greatest risk of contracting primary septicaemia and subsequent
mortality, but other chronic illnesses and immunodeficiency conditions are also associated
with increased risk. Vibrio vulnificus is not a hazard that is specific to aquaculture
products. Natural beds of oysters, mussels and clams may contain this organism. As the
organism is not derived from faecal contamination, its presence is not higher in polluted
environments.
Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a halophilic bacterium found in coastal and estuarine
environments throughout the world (Joseph, Colwell and Kaper, 1982). However, most
environmental strains are not human pathogens. Strains isolated from clinical cases
produce a thermostable direct hemolysin (TDH) or a TDH-related hemolysin (TRH)
(Joseph, Colwell and Kaper, 1982; Honda, Ni and Miwatani, 1988). Gastroenteritis, an
illness of short duration and moderate severity that is characterized by diarrhea, vomiting
and abdominal cramps, is the most common clinical manifestation of V. parahaemolyticus
infection. Individuals with underlying medical conditions (diabetes, alcoholic liver
disease, hepatitis, those receiving immunosuppressive therapy for cancer or AIDS) do
not seem to be more susceptible to initial infection, but they may have higher risk of the
infection developing into septicaemia. In the United States of America, most infections
are associated with consumption of raw oysters; but in other countries, a wide variety of
seafood including finfish, crayfish, crabs, shrimp and clams have been involved. In the
United States of America, about 4 500 cases occur annually; a much higher number of
cases is reported from Japan. While most outbreaks are sporadic, outbreaks with pandemic
potential have been reported recently, and the strains involved belong mostly to O3:K6,
O4:K68 and O1:KUT serotypes. Cases involving these serotypes appeared in India in
1996 and were detected in Southeast Asia, Japan and the United States of America (Okuda
et al., 1997; Daniels et al., 2000). This organism is present in both cultured and wild fish
and shellfish and is not derived from faecal contamination of the waters.
Hazards associated with foodborne viruses have been recognized recently.
Transmission of norovirus and hepatitis A virus through consumption of raw molluscs
has been reported from several countries. The largest outbreak of hepatitis A occurred
in and around Shanghai in the People’s Republic of China in 1988 in which more than
293 000 individuals became sick after eating clams (Xu et al., 1992). Several cases have been
reported from the United States of America, Australia and Europe (Richards, 2006). The
bacteriological standards for shellfish-growing waters seem to be ineffective in preventing
viral disease outbreaks. An outbreak of hepatitis A occurred in Spain in 1999 with 184
cases from clams meeting European Union standards (Sanchez et al., 2002). Outbreaks
of illness due to shellfish-borne norovirus have been reported from the United States of
America, Australia, several countries in Europe, China and Japan (Richards, 2006). Unlike
the Vibrio spp. mentioned above, these viruses are derived from sewage contamination
of shellfish-growing areas. There is a high rate of secondary spread of viruses following
a food-borne episode. Therefore, it is a challenge to obtain reliable estimates for the
proportion of illness that is foodborne.
With respect to chemical hazards, exposure assessment requires information on the

consumption of relevant foods and the concentration of the chemical of interest in the
foods. Chemical contaminants and pesticides are generally present, if at all, at very low
concentrations. Estimation of the dietary intake of chemical contaminants requires
information on their distribution in foods that can only be obtained by analysing
representative samples of relevant foods with sufficiently sensitive and reliable
methods. Guidelines for estimation of dietary intake of contaminants are available
from WHO (GEMS/Food, 1985).
Hazard characterization and dose-response analysis

At this step, a qualitative or quantitative description of the severity and the duration of
the adverse health effect that may result from the ingestion of microorganism/toxin/
chemical contaminants is made. The virulence characters of the pathogen, effect of
food matrix on the organism at the time of consumption (factors of the food such as
high fat content that may protect the organism by providing increased resistance to
gastric acids), host susceptibility factors and population characteristics are considered.
Wherever data are available, a dose response analysis is performed. Data for dose
response analysis may come from outbreak investigations, human volunteer studies,
vaccine trial studies or animal studies. In the example given later in this paper, dose
response for choleragenic V. cholerae in seafood has been estimated based on data from
vaccine trials.
Codex defines the risk characterization step as the process of determining the
qualitative and/or quantitative estimation including attendant uncertainties of the
probability of occurrence and the severity of the known or potential adverse health
effect in a given population based on hazard identification, exposure assessment and
hazard characterization. The output of risk characterization is not a simple qualitative
or quantitative statement of risk. Risk characterization should provide insights into the
nature of the risk, including a description of the most important factors contributing
to the average risk, the largest contributions to uncertainty and variability of the
risk estimate and a discussion of gaps in data and knowledge. A comparison of the
effectiveness of various methods of risk reduction is also presented.
The output of risk characterization is the risk estimate, which may be qualitative
(low, medium, high); semi-quantitative (the risk assessors making a ranking, i.e. a
number within a range, e.g. 0–100); or quantitative (the risk assessors predicting the
number of people who are likely to become ill from the pathogen-commodity/product
combination). Qualitative risk assessment is performed when data are inadequate
to make numerical estimates, but when conditioned by prior expert knowledge and
identification of attendant uncertainties, data are sufficient to permit risk ranking or
separation into descriptive categories of risk. An example of qualitative risk assessment
is given by Huss, Reilly and Ben Embarek (2000), who estimated the risk as high for
consumption of molluscan shellfish, fish eaten raw, lightly preserved fish and mildly
heat-treated fish. Low-risk products were chilled/frozen fish and crustaceans, semi-
preserved fish and heat-processed (canned) fish. Dried and heavily salted fish were
considered to have no risk of pathogenic bacteria.
Quantitative risk assessments are based on mathematical models incorporating
quantifiable data and emphasize the likelihood of an adverse health effect (e.g. illness,
hospitalization, death). These can be further subdivided into deterministic and
probabilistic risk assessments. For deterministic risk assessment, single input values
that best represent the factors in the system are chosen. The values could represent
the most likely value or values that capture a worst-case situation. Deterministic risk
assessment does not provide information on the uncertainty of the risk estimate.
However, selecting worst-case values and combining worst-case input values across
multiple factors affecting food safety performance may be too stringent for most
of the industry if risks are associated with extremes of performance. In the case of
probabilistic risk assessments, input values are distributions that reflect variability
and/or uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis is a method used to estimate the uncertainty
associated with models and assumptions used in the risk assessment.
Almost always, risk assessments have a statement specifying that insufficient data
were available in one or more areas and, as a result, a certain amount of caution should
be attached to the estimate. Caution, as a result of lack of precise information, leads to
uncertainty, and it is always important to record the data gaps that lead to uncertainty.
Later, if that knowledge becomes available, the level of uncertainty will be reduced so
that the risk estimate becomes more accurate. Risk assessment is an iterative process
and may need re-evaluation as new data become available. Wherever possible, risk
estimates should be reassessed over time by comparison with independent human
illness data.
Risk management
Risk management is the process of weighing policy alternatives in the light of the
results of risk assessment and if required, selecting and implementing appropriate
control options including regulatory measures. According to Codex (FAO, 1997),
risk management should follow a structured approach involving the elements of risk
evaluation, risk management option assessment, implementation of management
decision, monitoring and review.
Risk evaluation
Risk evaluation involves identification of a food safety problem, establishment of a
risk profile, ranking of hazards for risk assessment and risk management priority,
establishment of policy for conduct of risk assessment, commissioning of the risk
assessment and consideration of the risk assessment results. Identification of the food
safety issue is the entry point for preliminary risk management activities and may
come to the attention of the risk manager through disease surveillance data, inquiry
from a trading partner or consumer concern. A risk profile comprises a systematic
collection of information needed to make a decision. This can include description of
the food safety issue, information about the hazard, any unique characteristics of the
pathogen/human relationship, information about the exposure to the hazard, possible
control measures, feasibility and practicality, information on adverse health effect (type
and severity of illness, subset of population at risk) and other information for making
risk management decisions. Based on the information generated in the risk profile, the
risk manager may be able to make a range of decisions. Where possible and necessary,
the risk manager may commission a risk assessment. This would involve defining the
scope and purpose of the risk assessment, defining risk assessment policy, interactions
during the conduct of the risk assessment and consideration of the outputs of risk
assessment.
Risk option assessment

This step consists of identification of available management options, selection of the
preferred management option, including consideration of appropriate safety standard,
and making the final management decision. Optimization of food control measures
in terms of their efficiency, effectiveness, technological feasibility and practicality at
different points in the food chain is an important goal. A cost-benefit analysis could be
performed at this stage.
Implementation of the risk management decision

This will usually involve regulatory food safety measures such as the Hazard Analysis
and Critical Control Points (HACCP). There could be flexibility in the measure applied
by the industry as long as it can be objectively demonstrated that the programme is
able to achieve the stated goals. On-going verification of the food safety measure is
essential.
Monitoring and review

This is the gathering and analysing of data that gives an overview of food safety and
consumer health. Foodborne disease surveillance identifies new food safety problems
as they emerge. If the monitoring indicates that the required food safety levels are not
being reached, redesign of the measures will be needed (FAO/WHO, 2002).
Further risk management considerations

Protection of human health should be the primary consideration in arriving at any risk
management decision. Other considerations (e.g. economic costs, benefits, technical
feasibility and societal preferences) may be important in some contexts, particularly
in deciding on the measures to be taken. However, these considerations should not be
arbitrary and should be made explicit. Risk management should:
• include the identification and systematic documentation of all elements of the
risk management process including decision-making, so that the rationale is
transparent to all interested parties (e.g. consumer organizations, food industry
and trade representatives, educational and research institutions, and regulatory
bodies);
• include determination of risk assessment policy as a specific component. (Risk
assessment policy sets the guidelines for value judgments and policy choices
that may need to be applied at specific decision points in the risk assessment
process, and preferably should be determined in advance of risk assessment, in
collaboration with risk assessors.);
• ensure the scientific integrity of the risk assessment process by maintaining the
functional separation of risk management and risk assessment. (However, as
risk analysis is an iterative process, interactions between risk managers and risk
assessors are essential for practical application.);
• lead to decisions that take into account the uncertainty in the output of the
risk assessment. (The risk assessment should include numerical expression of
uncertainty, and this must be conveyed to risk managers in an understandable
form so that the full implications of the range of uncertainty are included in risk
management decisions.);
• include clear, interactive communication with consumers and other interested
parties in all aspects of the process;
• be a continuing process that takes into account all newly generated data in the
evaluation and review of risk management decisions.
Governments in a number of countries are undertaking quantitative risk assessments
for specific microbiological hazards in foods with the intention that the output
can be used to develop national food safety measures. This is also a requirement
in international trade in foods because the SPS Agreement under the World Trade
Organization (WTO) permits countries to take legitimate steps to protect the life
and health of their consumers, while prohibiting them from using these measures in
ways that unjustifiably restrict trade. The standards, guidelines and recommendations
of Codex are considered by WTO to reflect international consensus regarding
requirements for protecting human health and safety. A member country’s food safety
measures are considered justified and in accordance with the provisions of the SPS
Agreement if they are based on Codex standards or guidelines. Failure to apply Codex
standards could create potential for dispute if a member applies a standard that is more
restrictive for trade than necessary to achieve the required level of protection. Members
are required to justify levels of protection higher than those in Codex by using risk
assessment techniques.
In the context of food safety, an appropriate level of protection (ALOP) is a
statement of public health protection that is to be achieved by the food safety systems
implemented in that country. Most commonly, ALOP is articulated as a statement of
disease burden associated with a hazard/food combination and its consumption within
the country. ALOP is often framed in the context for continual improvement in relation
to disease reduction. For example, if a country has 100 cases of Vibrio parahaemolyticus
due to consumption of raw oysters per 100 000 population and wants to implement a
programme that reduces the incidence, there are two possible approaches in converting
this goal into a risk management programme. The first is the articulation of a specific
public health goal, i.e. to reduce the number of cases to 10 per 100 000 population.
This is based on the assumption that there are practical means of achieving this.
The alternate approach is to evaluate the performance of risk management options
currently available and select an ALOP based on one or more of these options. This is
often referred to as the as low as reasonably achieved (ALARA) approach.
Implementation of a food safety control programme greatly benefits by expression
of ALOP in terms of the required level of control of hazard in foods. The concept of
food safety objective (FSO) provides a measurable target for producers, consumers
and regulatory authorities. FSO has been defined as “the maximum frequency and/or
concentration of a microbiological hazard in a food at the time of consumption that
provides the appropriate level of protection” (FAO/WHO, 2002). FSOs are usually used
in conjunction with performance criteria and/or performance standards that establish
the required level of control of hazard at other stages in the food chain. A performance
criterion is the required outcome of a step or a combination of steps that contribute to
assuring that the FSO is met. Performance criteria are established considering the initial
level of hazard and changes during production, distribution, storage, preparation and
use of the food. The control of Listeria monocytogenes in foods provides an example of
the need to consider a structured risk management approach (Box 2).
BOX 2
The control of Listeria monocytogenes in foods
The FAO/WHO (2004) risk assessment for L. monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods

indicates that Listeria is frequently consumed in small amounts by the general
population without apparent ill effects. Dose response data indicate that only higher
levels of Listeria have caused severe disease problems. It is also evident that Listeria is
a bacterium that will always be present in the environment. Therefore, the critical issue
may not be how to prevent Listeria in foods, but how to control its survival and growth
in order to minimize the potential risk. Complete absence of Listeria is unrealistic and
unattainable for many foods, and trying to achieve this goal can limit trade without
having any appreciable benefit to public health. A relevant risk management option,
therefore, is to focus on foods that support growth of Listeria to high levels, rather
than those that do not. Thus, establishment of tolerable low levels of Listeria in specific
foods may be one food safety objective established by risk managers after a rigorous
and transparent risk analysis. However, there is no internationally accepted FSO for
L. monocytogenes, and the Codex Committee on Food Hygiene (CCFH) has come up
with questions to the risk assessment team including an estimation of the difference in
risk resulting from FSOs varying between “absence” (0 cells/25 g) and 1 000 cells/g.
Risk communication
Risk communication is an interactive process of exchange of information and
opinion on risk among risk assessors, risk managers and other interested parties (e.g.
government agencies, industry representatives, the media, scientists, professional
societies, consumer organizations, other public interest groups and concerned
individuals). The practical application of risk communication in relation to food safety
involves all aspects of communication among risk assessors, risk managers and the
public. Risk communication may originate from official sources at the international,
national or local levels. It may also be from other sources such as industry, trade,
consumers and other interested parties. In some cases, risk communication may be
carried out in conjunction with public health and food safety education programmes.
The goals of risk communication are to:
• promote awareness and understanding of the specific issues under consideration
during the risk analysis process by all participants;
• promote consistency and transparency in arriving at and implementing risk
management decisions;
• provide a sound basis for understanding the risk management decisions proposed
or implemented;
• improve the overall effectiveness and efficiency of the risk analysis process;
• contribute to the development and delivery of effective information and
educational programmes, when they are selected as risk management options;
• foster public trust and confidence in the safety of the food supply;
• strengthen the working relationships and mutual respect among all
participants;
• promote the appropriate involvement of all interested parties in the risk
communication process; and
• exchange information on the knowledge, attitudes, values, practices and
perceptions of interested parties concerning risks associated with food and
related topics.
At an international level, organizations like the Codex Alimentarius Committee
(CAC), FAO, World Health Organization (WHO) and WTO are involved
in risk communication. The general subject Codex Committees are involved
in risk management such as development of standards, guidelines and other
recommendations. Risk assessment information is often provided by the Joint FAO/
WHO Expert Committee on Microbiological Risk Assessments. The FAO/WHO
Codex Secretariat carries out risk communication through publication of various
documents and Internet-based communications. The WTO SPS Committee manages
the implementation of the SPS Agreement for WTO member countries; and, through
the notification procedure required by the SPS Agreement, it communicates risk
management decisions among those member countries.
National governments have the fundamental responsibility of risk communication
while managing public health risks, regardless of the management method used.
Governments that are members of CAC need to take an active role in the Codex
process and ensure that all interested parties in their countries contribute to the
national position on Codex matters to the extent practicable and reasonable. Since
industry is responsible for the safety of the food it produces, it has corporate
responsibility to communicate information on the risks to the consumers. Food
labeling is used as a means of communicating instructions on the safe handling
of food as a risk management measure. Consumer organizations can work with
government and industry to ensure that risk messages to consumers are appropriately
formulated and delivered.
FAO/WHO RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHOLERAGENIC VIBRIO CHOLERAE IN

WARMWATER SHRIMP IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE: EXAMPLE OF A RISK
ASSESSMENT
Seafood exports are a major source of foreign exchange for many Asian countries.
Incidentally cholera is endemic in some Asian countries; and exports are often
affected whenever there are reports of cholera in seafood-producing countries. Shrimp
constitute the major seafood commodity that is affected. In 2003, there were 4.3 million
tonnes of shrimp in international trade, of which 70 percent was warmwater shrimp.
Considering the importance of shrimp from warm waters in international trade, FAO/
WHO set up an expert committee to perform a risk assessment for Vibrio cholerae in
warmwater shrimp processed for export. This section summarizes the findings of the
FAO/WHO Drafting Group; the complete risk assessment is given in FAO/WHO
(2005).
Vibrio cholerae is a heterogeneous species consisting of over 220 serotypes. The
disease cholera is caused only by serotypes O1 and O139, which are also referred to as
choleragenic V. cholerae. Strains belonging to non 01/non-0139 serotypes of V. cholerae
are widely distributed in the aquatic environment and are mostly nonpathogenic to
humans, although they are occasionally associated with sporadic cases of gastroenteritis
(Kaper, Morris and Levine, 1995; Desmarchelier, 1997). Choleragenic V. cholerae are
characterized by their ability to produce cholera toxin, which is a complex protein
consisting of A and B subunits. Production of cholera toxin is encoded by ctxAB
genes. The ctx gene is present in a filamentous bacteriophage that infects V. cholerae
through a pilus called toxin co-regulated pilus (Waldor and Mekalanos, 1996; Faruque,
Albert and Mekalanos, 1998). Since the ctxAB gene is phage encoded and there may
be loss of bacteriophage in some environmental strains, it is possible to isolate non-
toxigenic V. cholerae O1 from the environment and occasionally from seafoods like
shrimp (Colwell, Kaper and Joseph, 1977; Kaper et al., 1979; Dalsgaard et al., 1995).
Serotyping alone is inadequate to detect choleragenic V. cholerae due to serological
cross reactions (Shimada, Sakazaki and Oue, 1987; Dalsgaard, Mazur and Dalsgaard,
2002). Thus use of molecular techniques such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR)
or DNA probe hybridization has become important in determining the presence of
choleragenic V. cholerae in seafood (Koch et al., 1993, Karunasagar et al., 1995).
In the aquatic environment, V. cholerae may be associated with copepods (Huq et al.,
1983). But copepods are planktonic organisms while shrimp are demersal and therefore,
V. cholerae is generally not associated with shrimp in their natural environment. Under
an FAO-sponsored shrimp microbiology project during the late 1980s, shrimp surface
and gut were tested for the presence of V. cholerae in a number of countries such as
India, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. The data from
this study indicated absence of choleragenic V. cholerae in association with shrimp
(Karunasagar et al., 1990, 1992; Fonseka, 1990; Rattagool et al., 1990). Although one
study in the mid 1990s detected V. cholerae O1 in tropical shrimp, molecular studies
indicated that the isolates were non-toxigenic (Dalsgaard et al., 1995).
For risk assessment, it is important to consider the prevalence and concentration
of choleragenic V. cholerae in shrimp during all stages of the farm to fork chain. The
model considered in this risk assessment is shown in Figure 2. Warmwater shrimp
intended for export is handled as per HACCP guidelines, which involve the use of
adequate ice to cool shrimp immediately after harvest, use of potable water to make ice,
hygienic practices in handling and processing etc. Studies conducted in Peru during an
epidemic of cholera in 1991 have shown that contamination of seafood with V. cholerae
can be prevented by adopting HACCP procedures (De Paola et al., 1993).
Freshly harvested shrimp have a bacterial count of about 103–104 cfu/g, and diverse
bacterial groups are present (Karunasagar et al., 1992). If contamination with V.
cholerae occurs in raw shrimp, this organism has to compete with other natural flora
FIGURE 2
Production to consumption pathway for exposure assessment for choleragenic
Vibrio cholerae in warmwater shrimp
Source: FAO/WHO, 2005.
on the surface of shrimp. Studies indicate that V. cholerae is unable to multiply in raw
shrimp (Kolvin and Roberts, 1992). Studies conducted in our laboratory show that
icing and storage in ice for 48 hr can lead to a 2 log reduction in V. cholerae levels, if the
organism was present on shrimp before icing (Table 2). Studies conducted in Argentina
show that freezing and frozen storage of shrimp can lead to a 3–6 log reduction in levels
of V. cholerae (Reilly and Hackney, 1985; Nascumento et al., 1998). As shrimp are
normally consumed after cooking, and as V. cholerae is sensitive to heat with a D value
of 2.65 min at 60 °C (ICMSF, 1996), it can thus be expected that there will be about a
6 log reduction in numbers during cooking of shrimp (Table 2).
For risk assessment, dose-response data are important. Data based on human
volunteer studies conducted in the United States in connection with cholera vaccine
trials (Cash et al., 1974; Black et al., 1987; Levine et al., 1988) indicate that the infective
dose would range from 106–108 for different strains of choleragenic V. cholerae. Data on
the prevalence of choleragenic V. cholerae in warmwater shrimp were based on “port
of entry testing for V. cholerae” at Japan, the United States of America and Denmark.
Of 21 857 samples of warmwater shrimp tested, two were positive (0.01 percent) for
choleragenic V. cholerae. The risk assessments assumed that 90 percent of warmwater
shrimp are eaten cooked and 10 percent are eaten raw (as sashimi, etc.). Qualitative
risk assessment indicated that the risk to human health is very low. Since the risk of
the organism occurring in shrimp is low, the organisms would need to multiply in the
product to attain infectious levels, but during the processing of warmwater shrimp
TABLE 2
Effect of processing on levels of choleragenic Vibrio cholerae in shrimp
Processing step Temperature Time Effect on Source of data
distribution distribution population of
(ºC) V. cholerae O1
HARVEST
Handling time before Industry data for time,
icing temperature, Kolvin
Cultured shrimp 15–35 0–1 hr No effect and Roberts (1982) for
Wild-caught shrimp multiplication
10–30 0–3 hr 0–1 log increase
WASHING
Washing and icing of 0–7 1–4 hr 1 log reduction Dinesh (1991)
cultured shrimp 0–30 1–4 hr
Washing in seawater of
wild-caught shrimp
ICING
Icing during transport 0–7 2–16 hr 2–3 log reduction Karunasagar
(including on board (cultured) (unpublished)
fishing vessel for wild- 2–48 hr (wild-
caught shrimp) to caught)
processor
WATER USE
Water use during 4–10 1–3 hr No effect Industry data, Kolvin
handling at processing and Roberts (1982)
plant
TEMPERATURE
Temperature during 4–10 2–8 hr No effect Industry data, Kolvin
processing before freezing and Roberts (1982)
COOKING
Cooking at processing >90 0.5–1.0 min >6 log reduction Based on industry
plant (This is the data on total plate
holding time at count (Sterling Foods
>90 ºC) Mangalore, India,
pers. comm.)
In shrimp homogenate
D82.2=0.28 (Hinton and
Grodner 1985)
FREEZING
Freezing of cooked and -12 to -20 15–60 d 2–6 log reduction INFOFISH (pers.
raw products, storage, comm.) for shipment
and shipment time time, Reilly and
Hackney (1985);
Nascumento et al.
(1998) for survival in
frozen shrimp
Source: from FAO/WHO, 2005.
(icing, freezing, cooking), significant reductions in level are expected to occur (Table 3).
Also epidemiological evidence shows no link between imported warmwater shrimp
and cholera in importing countries. Semiquantitative risk assessment using Risk Ranger
(Ross and Sumner, 2002) estimated 1–2 cases per decade for Japan, the United States
and Spain. For other shrimp-importing countries, the estimate was 3–4 cases/century.
For a quantitative risk assessment, numerical inputs for a full harvest to consumption
model were not available; hence a shortened exposure pathway that began at the port of
entry of the importing country was taken (Figure 3). The quantitative model estimated
that the median risk of acquiring cholera from warmwater shrimp in selected importing
countries ranges from 0.009 to 0.9 per year. The prediction of low risk by each of the
approaches mentioned above is supported by the absence of epidemiological evidence
that warmwater shrimp has ever been incriminated in any cholera outbreak in any
developed nation in the world.
CONCLUSIONS
Food safety systems based on a risk analysis approach are essential to protect
public health and promote international trade in food products, including products
of aquaculture. Risk assessment is a science-based process and requires reliable
TABLE 3
Qualitative risk assessment for choleragenic Vibrio cholerae in warmwater shrimp
Product Identified Severity1 Occurrence Growth in Impact of processing Consumer Epidemiological Risk
hazard risk2 product and handling on the terminal link rating
required hazard step3
to cause
disease
Raw shrimp V. cholerae II Very low Yes Level of hazard No No Low
reduced during
washing (0–1 log),
icing (2–3 logs),
freezing (2–6 logs)
Shrimp cooked V. cholerae II Very low Yes Level of hazard No No Low
at the plant & reduced during
eaten without washing (0–1 log),
further heat icing (2–3 logs),
treatment cooking (>6 logs),
freezing (2–6 logs)
Shrimp cooked V. cholerae II Very low Yes Level of hazard Yes No Low
immediately reduced during
before washing (0–1 log),
consumption icing (2–3 logs),
freezing (2–6
logs), thawing and
cooking (>6 logs)
1
Severity of the hazard classified according to International Commission of Microbiological Specifications for Foods (ICMSF 2002).
Level II = serious hazard; incapacitating but not life threatening; sequale rare; moderate duration.
2
Very low occurrence of illness – an average of less than one case per ten million population per year based on the data for over a
six-year period. This reflects the situation in all countries considered except Japan, which experienced an average of less than one
case per million population.
3
Cooking, which brings about >6 log reduction in the level of V. cholerae.
FIGURE 3
Import to consumption pathway used in quantitative risk assessment

data. It involves expertise in different fields such as food production (aquaculture),

microbiology, epidemiology, food-processing technology and statistics. Thus, it
requires both human and financial resources, and this could be one of the major
constraints for developing countries. This has been recognized in WTO agreements.
The SPS Agreement encourages the provision of technical assistance to member states,
particularly developing countries, through bilateral agreements and via international
organizations. SPS accepts Codex standards and guidelines as representing international
consensus. Thus Codex standards serve as the benchmark for comparison of national SPS
measures. The FAO/WHO Trust Fund for Participation in Codex provides resources
to enhance developing-country participation in Codex standard setting. The Standards
and Trade Development Facility (STDF) is a joint initiative of the World Bank (WB),
FAO, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), WHO and WTO that aims to
strengthen donor contribution in standard setting related to food safety. STDF provides
small grants for pilot projects that build capacity in standard setting and development
in developing countries. STDF also provides assistance to government and the private
sector in meeting international standards and promotes interagency coordination and
donor collaboration in the delivery of technical assistance. Developing countries can
make use of these opportunities to strengthen their capacity in the area of food safety
and public health protection.
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Xu, Z.Y., Li, Z.H., Wang, J.X., Xiao, Z.P. & Dong, D.X. 1992. Ecology and prevention
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S67–68.
27
Pathogen risk analysis for

aquaculture production1
Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Division
00153 Rome, Italy
[email protected]
J. Richard Arthur
FAO Consultant
Box 1216, Barriere, B.C., Canada V0E 1E0
[email protected]
Bondad-Reantaso, M.G. and Arthur, J.R. 2008. Pathogen risk analysis for
aquaculture production. In M.G. Bondad-Reantaso, J.R. Arthur and R.P. Subasinghe
(eds). Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture. FAO Fisheries and
ABSTRACT
In the context of aquatic animal health, pathogen risk analysis (also termed “import
risk analysis”) is a structured process for analysing the disease risks associated with
the international and domestic movements of live aquatic animals and their products.
Risk analysis provides a clearly defined framework for a structured, repeatable process,
thereby removing to a large extent, ad hoc and arbitrary decision-making with regard to
requests to import aquatic animals and their products.
Risk analysis is only one of a large number of components in a national aquatic
animal health programme and cannot function effectively unless other components of
the national programme have also been developed. In addition to appropriate legislation
and policy, and the means to implement them, these other required components
include capacity in areas such as diagnostics, quarantine and inspection services;
disease surveillance, monitoring and reporting; national pathogen lists; legislation and
enforcement; contingency planning; etc.
This paper provides an overview of the pathogen risk analysis process, a list of
relevant instruments (treaties and agreements), and examples of actual risk analyses and
information sources, as well as a discussion of the way forward, particularly focusing on
challenges that will faced by developing countries.
Introduction
The international trade of live aquatic animals is carried out for various reasons
including aquaculture development and sustainment, the ornamental fish industry and
1
This paper is based primarily on the Manual on risk analysis for the safe movement of aquatic animals
(Arthur et al., 2004) and a paper entitled Pathogen risk analysis for biosecurity and the management of
live aquatic animal movements (Arthur et al., 2008).
the live food fish market. Live fish are also moved across national borders to support
the development of capture and sport fisheries, for use as bait, as biological control
agents and for research (Arthur, 2004; Subasinghe and Bartley, 2004).
Gametes, fertilized eggs, fry, fingerlings, and spat, as well as broodstock are
constantly being moved to support aquaculture development. While the international
movement of fertilized eggs and gametes is infrequent in some parts of the world
(particularly in Asia), this method is recommended by international codes of practice
for species introductions and transfers (e.g. the European Inland Fisheries Advisory
Commission [EIFAC] and the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea
[ICES], as it generally involves a lower risk of pathogen transfer (Turner, 1988; ICES,
2005).
In Asia and Latin America, immature stages of many species are frequently moved
across international borders in large numbers. New industries that are hindered by
non-existent or temporarily insufficient national production (e.g. milkfish fry, oyster
spat, prawn postlarvae) or industries involving species whose life cycles have not been
completed to a commercial level (e.g. groupers, tiger prawn) are associated with these
types of movements. Hossain (1997) provides a good example, in Bangladesh, of the
magnitude of this trade, estimating an importation level in 1995, of about 50 million
nauplii and postlarvae of giant tiger prawn to support the country’s developing shrimp
culture industry.
Broodstock movement, on the other hand, is less frequent and typically involves
only a few animals at a time. Such movements are characteristic for species without
closed life cycles at a commercial level (prawns) and for new aquaculture species, in
order to avoid delays in aquaculture start up due to the time needed for maturation of
juveniles to broodstock.
To support the live food market, fish, crustaceans and molluscs are moved both
internationally and domestically. Examples include movement of live oysters from
producing countries to consuming countries (e.g. to Europe, North America and South
Africa) and the intra-regional trade in Asia involving live finfish and shellfish (e.g.
groupers, seabass, shrimp, cockles, etc.) for consumption in seafood restaurants.
The ornamental fish trade is a major industry. Khan et al. (1999) and Davenport
(2001) reported that the international trade in ornamental fish involves more than
2 000 species and hundreds of millions of fish annually. The culture and trade of
aquarium fish is an important source of foreign exchange earnings for some countries.
For example, Malaysia, one of the world’s main exporters of aquarium fish, produced
some 338 million freshwater ornamental aquatic organisms in 2001, including some
293 million freshwater fish belonging to more than 90 species (Latiff, 2004). In 2001,
Malaysian production of freshwater ornamental aquatic organisms was valued at over
81 million Malaysian Ringgit (US$21.3 million), a figure which had increased by an
average annual rate of 7.5 per cent since 1997.
As a sector, the aquarium fish trade is highly unregulated, involving a high volume
of transshipment that often masks the country of origin of individual shipments
and species. The complexity of the trade often makes guarantees of the health status
difficult, if not impossible. Although ornamental fish diseases have not received the
detailed attention they deserve, there is increasing evidence of the presence of a wide
variety of pathogens and parasites, some of which are important disease agents of
cultured and wild fish or are human pathogens (see references in Arthur et al., 2008).
Koi herpesvirus disease is one of the most serious of these diseases and recently caused
major losses in wild and cultured common carp (Cyprinus carpio), an important food
fish in some countries in Asia.
Because of the volume of live aquatic animals traded internationally, the diversity
of species being moved, and the many known and potential pathogens that infect
aquatic species, countries have often faced great difficulty in trying to find methods
that will reduce the risk of spreading transboundary pathogens that could seriously
impact their domestic aquaculture industries and aquatic biodiversity. Developing
countries, in particular, constantly face this challenge in view of the lack of expertise,
capacity, policy, legislation and financial resources necessary to adequately manage
transboundary disease risks.
General Purpose of a Pathogen Risk Analysis

Pathogen risk analysis (termed “import risk analysis” when international trade is
involved) is a structured process for analysing the disease risks associated with the
international and domestic movements of live aquatic animals and their products.
“Risk” is the potential that an unwanted, adverse consequence (a serious disease
outbreak) will result from the importation or domestic movement of a living aquatic
animal or its product (a “commodity”) over a given period of time. Risk therefore
combines the elements of both likelihood and impact.
A pathogen risk analysis (MacDairmid, 1997; Rodgers, 2004; Arthur et al., 2004,
2008; Murray et al., 2004; OIE, 2007) seeks answers to the following questions:
1) What serious pathogens could the commodity be carrying?
2) If the commodity is infected by a serious pathogen, what are the chances that it
will enter the importing country and that susceptible animals will be exposed to
infection?
3) If susceptible animals are exposed, what are the expected biological and socio-
economic impacts?
4) If the importation is permitted, then what is the risk associated with each
pathogen?
5) Is the risk determined for each pathogen in the risk assessment acceptable to the
importing country?
6) If not, can the commodity be imported in such a way that the risk is reduced to
an acceptable level?
Risk analysis provides a clearly defined framework for a structured, repeatable
process, thereby removing to a large extent, ad hoc and arbitrary decision-making
with regard to requests to import aquatic animals and their products. Its greatest
strength is its flexibility. The process is based on science and is transparent (by having a
structured and defined process that is understood by all and by incorporating extensive
stakeholder consultation), therefore allowing subjective decisions that enter the
process to be recognized. An internationally accepted method, risk analysis provides
importing countries with the means to protect themselves against exotic diseases while
assuring their trading-partner countries that any disease concerns are justified and are
not disguised barriers to trade. It also allows for uncertainty of scientific knowledge.
Through the application of the precautionary approach, importing countries are
permitted the time needed to address any important information gaps where research
is needed to support sound decision-making.
Relevant Treaties and Agreements

International trade liberalization resulting from the General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade (GATT) and the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995
consequently brought major changes in the patterns of world trade. With the adoption
of the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the
SPS Agreement) in 1994, WTO member countries are now required to use the risk
analysis process as a means to justify restrictions on international trade in live aquatic
animals or their products based on risk to human, animal or plant health beyond the
application of the sanitary measures outlined in the OIE Aquatic Animal Health Code
(WTO, 1994; Rodgers, 2004; Arthur et al., 2004). As a result, risk analysis has become
an internationally accepted standard method for deciding whether trade in a particular
commodity poses a significant risk to human, animal or plant health, and, if so, what
measures, if any can be applied to reduce that risk to an acceptable level.
The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE, formerly the Office international
des Épizooties) is recognized as the international organization responsible for the
development and promotion of international animal health standards, guidelines
and recommendations affecting trade in live terrestrial and aquatic animals and their
products. The OIE’s Aquatic Animal Health Code (OIE, 2007) outlines the necessary
basic steps in the risk analysis process that should be followed; however, decisions as
to the details of the process are left to individual member countries.
Risk analysis is only one of a large number of components in a national aquatic
animal health programme (FAO/NACA, 2000; Arthur et al., 2004). It cannot function
effectively unless other components of the national programme have also been
developed, such as appropriate legislation and policy, and the means to implement
them; and capacity building in the areas of diagnostics, quarantine and inspection
services; disease surveillance, monitoring and reporting; national pathogen lists;
legislation and enforcement; contingency planning; etc.
Table 1 provides a list of examples of instruments (treaties and agreements) at
different levels (international, regional and national) concerned with aquatic animal
health issues.
Scoping a Pathogen Risk Analysis

The preparation of a detailed and accurate commodity description that contains all
essential information concerning the proposed importation (e.g. health status of the
stock; the number, life cycle stage and age of the animals to be imported; the handling
and treatment methods applied before and during shipment; etc.) is an important
initial step in the scoping process. Once a decision has been made that a risk analysis
is required, the risk analysis team established by the Competent Authority will decide
on the type of risk analysis (i.e. qualitative or quantitative) to be conducted. A working
group with appropriate expertise that will conduct the actual risk analysis will be
formed (Figure 2). The full cooperation of the exporting country in providing such
information is essential. Risk assessment methodology may range from the purely
TABLE 1
Examples of instruments at different levels concerned with aquatic animal health issues
International codes/treaties/guidelines Reference
OIE’s Aquatic Animal Health Code OIE (2007)
Code of Practice on the Introductions and Transfers of Marine Organisms of the ICES (2005)
International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES)
Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (CCRF) of the Food and Agriculture FAO (1995)
Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS WTO (1994)
Agreement) of the World Trade Organization (WTO)
FAO Technical Guidelines for Responsible Fisheries. No. 5, Suppl. 2 – Health FAO (2007)
management for responsible movement of live aquatic animals
Regional guidelines
Codes of Practice and Manual of Procedures for Consideration of Introductions Turner (1988)
and Transfers of Marine and Freshwater Organisms of the European Inland
Fisheries Advisory Commission (EIFAC)
FAO/NACA Asia regional technical guidelines for the responsible movement of FAO/NACA (2000)
live aquatic animals
National strategies
AQUAPLAN: Australia’s National Strategic Plan for Aquatic Animal Health AFFA (1999)
Canada’s National Aquatic Animal Health Programme (NAAHP) Olivier (2004)
USA’s National Aquatic Animal Health Plan Amos (2004)
Thailand’s Strategic Plan for Aquatic Animal Health Kanchanakhan and
Chinabut (2004)
Source: Bondad-Reantaso and Subasinghe, 2008.
qualitative to the purely quantitative. In most cases, a qualitative approach will be

simplest, quickest and most cost-effective.
Overview of the Risk Analysis Process

Figure 1 shows the four main components of the OIE risk analysis process and their
interrelationships, while Figure 2 outlines the steps in the risk analysis process.
The Steps IN the Risk Analysis Process

The principal components of the risk analysis process, as illustrated above (Figures 1
and 2) are: hazard identification, risk assessment (release, exposure and consequence
assessments, which become the basis for risk estimation), risk management (composed
of risk evaluation, option evaluation, implementation and monitoring and review)
and risk communication (a continuous activity that takes place throughout the entire
process).
The hazard identification step determines what pathogens could plausibly be carried by
the commodity. From this initial list of pathogens, those pathogens that pose a serious
risk to the importing country will then be determined. Examples of criteria used when
considering whether or not a pathogen constitutes a hazard include the following:
• the pathogen must have been reported to infect, or is suspected of being capable
of infecting the commodity;
• it must cause significant disease outbreaks and associated losses in susceptible
populations; and
• it could plausibly be present in the exporting country.
A list of information sources (disease databases, taxonomic databases, fish databases,
abstracting services, internet Web sites) that can be used to obtain information needed
to support hazard identification is provided in Table 2.
An example of the process used for hazard identification during a recent risk analysis
for the introduction of blue shrimp, Litopenaeus stylirostris, from Brunei Darussalam
to Fiji (Bondad-Reantaso et al., 2005) is provided in Box 1.
Risk assessment
The actual risk assessment consists of four components:
1. Release assessment is the step that determines the pathways whereby a pathogen can
move with the commodity from the exporting country to the border of the importing
country and the likelihood of this occurring. Information required for release
assessment includes the following:
Figure 1
The four components of risk analysis
Hazard identification Hazard assessment Risk management
Risk communication
FIGURE 2
A simplified diagram showing the steps in the risk analysis process
Establish a risk analysis project team within the competent authority
Define the scope of the project (i.e. Define precisely the nature & sources of the
commodity)
Establish a working group for the specific risk analysis
Conduct a preliminary hazard identification
Identify the stakeholders
Inform stakeholders of the project and seek comments on the preliminary hazard
identification
Conduct the detailed hazard identification
Conduct the risk assessment

• Release assessment
• Exposure assessment
• Consequence assessment
• Risk estimation
Conduct risk management

• Risk evaluation
• Option evaluation
• Implementation
• Monitoring and review
Conduct internal and external scientific reviews and revisions
Circulate the revised risk analysis to stakeholders for final comment & revise as necessary
Implement finalized risk analysis via policy and legislation
Source: Arthur et al., 2004.

TABLE 2
Examples of information resources to support hazard identification
Type of information resources Access
Scientific and disease databases and abstracting services
AGRICOLA (Agricultural Online Access) http://agricola.nal.usda.gov/
Aquatic Animal Pathogen and Quarantine http://www.aapqis.org
Information System (AAPQIS)
Aquatic Science and Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) http://www.fao.org/fi/asfa.asfa.asp
Biological Abstracts and BioResearch Index http://www.biosis.org
(BIOSIS), database for biological and medical
sciences
Cambridge Scientific Abstracts http://www.csa.com
Commonwealth Agricultural Bureaux (CAB) http://www.cabi.org
Veterinary Sciences/Medicine database
Food Science and Technology Abstracts database http://www.ifis.org
(International Food Information Service)
INGENTA http://www.ingenta.com
Northeastern Aquatic Animal Health Directory http://www.old.umassd.edu/specialprograms/nrac
OIE Collaborating Centre for Information on http://www.collabcen.net
Aquatic Animal Diseases
PubMed, a service of the National Library of http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi
Medicine
Science Citation Index, Institute for Science http://scientific.thomsonreuters.com/products/sci/
Information (ISI)
BOX 1
An example of the results of a hazard identification exercise, part of a pathogen
risk analysis for the introduction of blue shrimp, Litopenaeus stylirostris, from
Brunei Darussalam to Fiji
The criteria set for a pathogen or disease to be considered in the preliminary hazard
identification were:
• the potential hazard must be an identifiable biological agent or a disease believed
to be produced by a single (as yet unidentified) biological agent (thus generalized
syndromes are not considered)
• the agent must have been recorded from L. stylirostris (any life cycle stage) or it must
be listed by the OIE as a serious disease affecting other penaeid shrimp.
The preliminary hazard identification determined that there were 19 pathogens
fulfilling the above criteria (Tables 1 and 2).
Another set of criteria was drawn up that needed to be fulfilled in order for a
potential hazard be given further consideration (i.e. considered a hazard). These were:
• the pathogen must have been reported to infect, or is suspected of being capable of
infecting postlarval L. stylirostris;
• the agent must be an obligate pathogen (i.e., it is not ubiqitous free-living organism
that is capable of becoming an opportunistic pathogen of L. stylirostris under certain
environmental or culture conditions);
• the agent must cause significant disease outbreaks and associated losses in populations
of L. stylirostris or, if not a significant pathogen of L. stylirostris, it must cause serious
disease outbreaks in populations of other species of penaeid shrimp; and
• it must be plausible that the agent might be present in populations of L. stylirostris
in Brunei Darussalam.
In the final analysis, some comments and observations were presented as to why
some of the pathogens were not given consideration and which of the 19 pathogens were
recognized as requiring further consideration. These pathogens became the subject of
detailed risk assessment. In this particular case, out of the 19 pathogens, eight were given
further consideration (see Box 2).
Source: Bondad-Reantaso et al., 2005.

FIGURE 3
Simplified Pathways Diagram for the release of viral pathogens in Macrobrachium
rosenbergii postlarvae from Fiji to Cook Islands. Not considered are less probable
pathways such as via shipping water or fomites, or failure of the diagnostics tests to
detect true positives. In this simplified example, the likelihood that infected PL will be
released (LR) can be expressed as LR = (L1 x L2 x L3 x L4) + (L1 x L2 x L3 x L5)
Selection of spawners at Naduraloulou, Fiji
Infected broodstock selected (L1) Uninfected broodstock selected
Selection of postlarvae for shipment No pathogen transfer
Infected PL Uninfected PL selected

selected (L2)
No pathogen transfer
Selection of subsample for

pathogen testing
Subsample uninfected (L5)

Infected subsample
selected (L3)
Pathogen(s) detected by genome- Infected PL shipped to Cook

based testing Islands
Yes No L4
Batch rejected - No pathogen Infected PL shipped to Cook

transfer Islands
• Biological factors: susceptibility (species, life stage), means of transmission

(horizontal, vertical), infectivity, virulence, routes of infection, outcomes of
infection (sterile immunity, incubatory or convalescent carriers, latent infection),
impact of vaccination, testing, treatment and quarantine
• Country factors: evaluation of the exporting country’s official services in terms of
diagnostics, surveillance, and control programmes and zoning systems; incidence
and/or prevalence of the pathogen; existence of pathogen-free areas and areas of
low prevalence; distribution of aquatic animal population; farming and husbandry
practices; geographical and environmental characteristics
• Commodity factors: ease of contamination; relevant processes and production
methods; effect of processing, storage and transport; quantity of commodity to
be imported
2. Exposure assessment is the step that determines the pathways by which susceptible
populations in the importing country can be exposed to the pathogen and the likelihood
of this occurring (Figure 3). Information required for exposure assessment includes the
following:
• Biological pathways: description of pathways necessary for exposure of animals

and humans to the potential hazards and estimate of the likelihood of exposure
• Relevant factors:
– Biological factors: susceptibility of animals likely to be exposed (species, life
stage), means of transmission (horizontal, vertical), infectivity, virulence and
stability of potential hazards, route of infection, outcome of infection
– Country factors: presence of potential intermediate hosts or vectors, fish and
human demographics, farming and husbandry practices, customs and cultural
practices, geographical and environmental characteristics
– Commodity factors: intended use of imported animal, waste disposal practices,
quantity of commodity to be imported
3. Consequence assessment is the step that identifies the potential biological,

environmental and economic consequences expected to result from pathogen
introduction. Information required for consequence assessment include the following:
• Potential biological, environmental and economic consequences associated with
the entry, establishment and spread
– Direct consequences: outcome of infection in domestic and wild animals and
their populations (morbidity and mortality, production losses, animal welfare),
public health consequences
– Indirect consequences: economic considerations (control and eradication costs,
surveillance costs, potential trade losses [such as embargoes, sanctions and lost
market opportunities]), environmental considerations (amenity values, social,
cultural and aesthetic conditions)
4. Risk estimation is the step that calculates the overall risk posed by the hazard
(the unmitigated risk) by combining the likelihood of entry and exposure with the
consequences of establishment (Table 3).
In the risk assessment process, the use of pathway analysis and scenario diagrams is
very important. They serve as useful tools in identifying possible routes (pathways) and
the individual events or steps in each pathway that need to occur for a given pathway
to be successfully completed. Not only do they provide a logical process by which
the critical risk steps (events) leading to pathogen introduction and establishment in
an importing country can be identified, they also allow estimation of the probability
of each event occurring, thus leading to an overall estimate of the probability of a
given pathway being completed. When incorporated unto the pathway analysis, the
effectiveness of a risk mitigation measure can be determined, which can then allow the
recalculation of the overall risk to see whether the risk can be reduced to an acceptable
level. Another advantage of using the pathway/scenario diagram approach is that
it allows for sensitivity analysis, whereby the most influential pathway steps that
TABLE 3
Example unmitigated risk estimation combining the results of the exposure and consequence
assessments for a hypothetical hazard using three qualitative rankings (high, medium and low)
Likelihood of entry and exposure Consequence of establishment Unmitigated risk estimate
Low Low Low
Low Medium Medium
Low High Medium
Medium Low Medium
Medium Medium Medium
Medium High High
High Low Medium
High Medium High
High High High
determine the final risk estimate for a particular pathogen can be identified. This greatly
assists in targeting risk mitigation measures and in identifying areas where information
needs are most critical, particularly in areas where highly sensitive pathway steps are
associated with a degree of uncertainty or subjectivity.
Risk management
Risk management is the step in the process whereby measures to reduce the level of risk
are identified, selected and implemented. The three steps involved are briefly described
below:
• In the risk evaluation step, the unmitigated risk estimate for the hazard is
compared with the level of risk acceptable (the acceptable level of risk, ALOR) to
the importing country. If the estimated risk is within the ALOR, the importation
can be approved. However, if the risk posed by the commodity exceeds the
ALOR, then risk mitigation measures should be considered.
• During option evaluation possible measures to reduce the risk are identified and
evaluated for efficacy and feasibility, and the least restrictive measure(s) found
to reduce the risk to an acceptable level are selected. The process is essentially
the same as that used during risk assessment, with new scenarios and pathways
being constructed that incorporate steps for possible risk mitigation measures to
determine their ability to reduce the overall risk (now the mitigated risk estimate)
to an acceptable level.
• During implementation and monitoring and review, the requirements for
importation, including any mitigation measures, are presented to the proponent
and the importation process is monitored and reviewed by the importing country’s
Competent Authority to assure that all conditions for importation are met.
During the risk management step, it is important to keep in mind several important
principles of the SPS Agreement related to the risk management process. These are:
• Risk management measures must be applied in the least trade restrictive manner
possible – principle of least restrictiveness.
• The concept of equivalence allows the exporting country the opportunity to
prove that its own risk mitigation measures lower the risk to within the importing
country’s ALOR – principle of equivalence of mitigation measures.
• The importing country must apply the same ALOR (i.e. accept the same level
of risk) at both external (international) and internal (national) borders, and the
ALOR must be applied consistently across the range of commodities in which
the country trades, without prejudice as to the country of origin – principle of
consistency in application.
An important concept that needs to be understood in the risk management step
is what is called the “acceptable level of risk” or “ALOR”.2 ALOR is the level of
risk that can be tolerated by a country when importing live aquatic animals or their
products. It is the standard to which the results of a hazard analysis are compared (the
unmitigated risk estimate) to determine if an importation should be approved, as well
as the standard to be applied in determining whether risk mitigation measures can be
effective in reducing risk to an acceptable level (the mitigated risk).
Many factors need to be carefully weighed by politicians when establishing the
ALOR. These include the importance of protecting national biodiversity and natural
ecosystems, the availability of species for aquaculture and capture fisheries development,
the need for social and economic development, and past trading practices, including
those in the plant and livestock sectors.
2
The “appropriate level of protection” or “ALOP”, which can be thought of as the inverse of ALOR, is
often used in stating a country’s level of risk tolerance.
Examples of a conclusion of a pathogen risk analysis and the associated risk

management measures identified and recommended as an outcome of the risk analysis
process are given in Box 2.
Risk communication
Risk communication is the step whereby information and opinions regarding hazards
and risks are gathered from potentially affected and interested parties during a risk
analysis, and by which results of the risk assessment and proposed risk management
measures are communicated to decision-makers and interested parties in the importing
and exporting countries. Risk communication is a multidimensional and iterative
process, ideally beginning at the start of the risk analysis and continuing throughout the
whole process. It is the stage that provides over-all system integrity. In order to achieve
such integrity, a clear communication strategy is required (i.e. what kind of message,
the medium, to whom and the frequency of iteration, mechanism for seeking input/
feedback, etc.). An effective risk communication has the following key components:
transparency, consensus building, stakeholder cooperation and consultation.
As the risk analysis process may involve a large number of agencies, organizations
and individuals that have an interest in its outcome, key stakeholders should be
identified early in the process. The primary stakeholders in a risk analysis process
are the proponents, the Competent Authorities of the exporting and importing
countries, and the risk analysis team. Many other stakeholders will be interested in
the outcome of a risk analysis; the precise agencies, organizations and individuals
will vary depending on the commodity being considered and its intended use. To
give an example, a risk analysis involving the importation of a live marine mollusc for
aquaculture development may include the following potential stakeholders: oyster
farmers, oyster traders, restaurant owners, fish vendors, consumers, aquaculturists,
seafood processors, conservationists, and concerned international, national and local
governments and agencies.
Table 4 provides a list of the pathogen risk analyses for aquatic animals that have
been conducted or are currently in progress;
The precautionary approach

The large amount of uncertainty that is seen during many risk analyses is due to the
general lack of basic knowledge and information that is needed in the process. In
fisheries management and elsewhere where governments must take decisions based on
incomplete knowledge, the “precautionary approach” is widely used. FAO’s Code of
Conduct for Responsible Fisheries states that:
“States should apply the precautionary approach widely to conservation, management
and exploitation of living aquatic resources in order to protect them and preserve the
aquatic environment. The absence of adequate scientific information should not be
used as a reason for postponing or failing to take conservation and management
measures.” (FAO, 1995).
A “precautionary approach”, within the context of risk analysis for aquatic animals,
would be that both importing and exporting nations act responsibly and conservatively
to avoid the spread of serious pathogens (Arthur et al., 2004).
There are at least three points whereby the precautionary approach may come into
play within the context of risk analysis for aquatic animal movement:
• throughout the risk analysis process, when “cautious interim measures” are considered
necessary to ban or restrict trade until a sound risk analysis can be completed;
• during the pathways scenario portion of the risk assessment process, when sensitivity
analysis reveals key information gaps that must be addressed by targeted research; and
• during risk management, when risk mitigation measures are identified to reduce the risk to
an acceptable level.
BOX 2
Example of conclusions from a pathogen risk analysis (PRA) for the introduction
of blue shrimp, Litopenaeus stylirostris, from Brunei Darussalam to Fiji and risk
management measures identified and recommended as an outcome of this PRA
Conclusions of the pathogen risk analysis

Both Fiji and Brunei Darussalam, as members of the World Trade Organization (WTO),
and Brunei. as a member of the Office international des épizooties (OIE) are bound
to fulfill their obligations as WTO/OIE members, particularly in implementing new
agreements such as the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary
Measures (the “SPS Agreement”). The principal objective of the SPS Agreement
is to ensure that governments do not use food safety and quarantine requirements
as unjustified trade barriers to protect their domestic agricultural industries from
competitive imports. The SPS agreement also ensures that governments can give health
protection priority over trade.
The absence of historical and current information on the health status of the stock
of origin, and the lack of responsiveness of the exporter and Government of Brunei
to provide information necessitate the application of the precautionary approach.
Because of the high risk of introducing serious pathogens, further importations from this
source should not be permitted until adequate information to assess risk is provided by
Brunei. The Government of Fiji is urged make an official request to the Government
of Brunei, both directly and through the offices of the SPC and OIE, to obtain this
crucial information, which should be carefully evaluated prior to making a final
decision as to whether or not to permit these introductions to continue. Fiji and Brunei
should cooperate fully in order to address the critical information gaps in a timely and
transparent manner.
Based on the preliminary hazard identification, six viruses and two bacteria were
recognized as potentially serious hazards associated with the importation of PL of
Litopenaeus stylirostris from Brunei Darussalam:
• White spot syndrome virus (WSSV)
• Infectious hypodermal and haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV)
• Taura syndrome virus (TSV)
• Yellow head virus (YHV)
• Baculovirus penaei (BP)
• Hepatopancreatic parvo-like virus (HPV)
• Necrotising hepatopancreatitis (NHP)
• Vibrio penaeicida
Four of the six viruses (WSSV, IHHNV, TSV and YHV) are among the most serious
pathogens of both cultured and wild shrimp. These pathogens have been introduced and
spread on a global scale due to the irresponsible movement of shrimp broodstock and PL
for aquaculture development, and perhaps through other means, such as via aquaculture
products (e.g. frozen shrimp), other animal carriers (reservoir hosts, passive carriers) and
other abiotic factors.
The associated levels of risk (release, exposure and consequence) for these pathogens
exceed the appropriate level of protection (ALOP) recommended for Fiji (see Table 1).
From an economic, social and biological perspective, it is well worth the cost and
effort to protect Fiji, as far as possible, from the potential irreversible impacts of these
pathogens.
BOX 2 (continued)
Table 1
Summary of the results of assessment of unmitigated risk for eight potential hazards
Pathogen1 Likelihood of Likelihood of Probable Consequence
Release Escape
IHHNV moderate moderate moderate
TSV moderate moderate low
WSSV moderate moderate moderate
YHV moderate moderate moderate
BP moderate moderate low
HPV moderate moderate moderate
NHP low low low
V. penaeicida low low low
1 Infectious hypodermal and haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV), Taura syndrome virus
(TSV), white spot syndrome virus (WSSV), yellow head virus (YHV), Baculovirus penaei (BP),
hepatopancreatic parvo-like virus (HPV), necrotising hepatopancreatitis (NHP).
Mitigation measures are available that can be applied to reduce the risk associated
with all hazards to below that specified by the ALOP. The most important of these are:
• All shipments of PL to be imported into Fiji should be of “high health” status
and should originate from a facility certified as using specific pathogen free (SPF)
broodstock L. stylirostris. The facility must demonstrate a proven track record
of producing PL free of the specific diseases through a documented history of
pathogen surveillance, evidence of adherence to strict biosecurity protocols and an
over-all health management plan. The facility must provide sufficient guarantees
as to the health status and history of its stock. An on-site inspection visit to the
production facility by an internationally recognized shrimp health expert on behalf
of the Government of Fiji should be made to assure that the protocols, diagnostic
procedures, security, etc. are adequate to validate guarantees of health status.1,2
• The production facility in the exporting country should also meet the following pre-
border requirements:
– The batch of PL destined for export should be separated as early as possible from
other stocks reared in the facility of origin and should be maintained in tanks
separate from the rest of the stocks;
– Detailed records should kept of the health status and mortality rates of each
batch of L. stylirostris. Such records should be made available to the Competent
Authority responsible for health certification;
– A statistically appropriate sample taken from the batch intended for export should
be tested for the eight pathogens using the recommended methods (for OIE listed
diseases, these are the methods specified by OIE (2003));
– Should a batch of PL test positive for any of the eight hazards, the batch
will be rejected and future importations from the infected production facility
prohibited until such a time that freedom of the facility from disease can be clearly
demonstrated.
1
SPF is a concept that is generally poorly understood (see Carr 1996, Lotz 1997). Once broodstock
or PL produced by an SPF facility leave that facility, they are no longer considered to have SPF
status for the specific pathogens indicated, because the level of biosecurity under which they are
being maintained is now decreased. When transferred to a commercial hatchery or grow-out
facility having adequate, albeit lower level health security, they and any nauplii and PL derived
from them may be referred to as ‘high health’ shrimp. Because their health status is now less
certain, a new historical record for that facility must be established.
2
An alternate approach, and one that would provide a higher level of protection from exotic disease,
would be a single importation of a limited number of SPF broodstock L. stylirostris that would be
used to establish a breeding program in a biosecure facility in Fiji.
• The importing country should implement the following post-border requirements:

– The receiving facility should meet minimum requirements with regard to its
design and operation such that the risk of pathogen exposure is minimized. (see
Annex I).
– A health monitoring system should be in place at the receiving facility so that a
new historical record of health and mortality status can be established.
– No animals are to be removed from the receiving facility without prior permission
from the Ministry of Fisheries and Forestry (MFF), Fiji;
– The operators must report any occurrences of serious mortalities or disease
outbreak; and
– A farm level contingency plan should be developed requiring that in the event of a
serious disease outbreak or mortality, all animals will be destroyed and disposed of
in an approved sanitary method, and the facility fully disinfected before restocking
(see Annex II).
• Importations from countries with a known history of occurrence of serious shrimp
pathogens should be avoided unless the production facility is able to clearly
demonstrate freedom from serious pathogens. Ideally, the country of origin should
have capable veterinary or aquatic animal health services (an evaluation of the
Competent Authority may be necessary) and an established program of disease
surveillance and control in place to manage the disease.
• The stock of Litopenaeus stylirostris currently being cultured in Fiji is considered to
represent a high risk to the national disease status. To reduce this risk, the following
risk management measures are recommended:
– No animals should to be moved from the receiving facility (Gulf Seafood Fiji Ltd.)
without prior permission from the Ministry of Fisheries and Forestry (MFF);
– The operators should be required to report any occurrences of serious mortalities
or disease outbreak.
– The production facility should meet minimum standards of construction and
operation so as to minimize the possibility that pathogens will gain access to
natural waters through escapes, exposure of potential carriers, transfer by birds
and other vectors, and release of virus into natural waters. Suggested standards are
given in Annex I.
– A contingency plan should be developed requiring that in the event of a serious
disease outbreak or mortality, all animals will be destroyed and disposed of in an
approved sanitary method, and the facility fully disinfected before restocking. The
components of such a contingency plan are given in Annex II.
THE WAY FORWARD

Developing countries face many challenges in undertaking pathogen risk analysis.
Combining national expertise with the risk analysis expertise available in neighbouring
countries through regional approaches may be the most cost-effective way for many
countries to conduct risk analyses involving common and shared aquatic species. This
approach will also involve sharing of databases and other sources of information.
Particularly for introductions involving shared waterways, the sharing of risk analysis
approaches and associated costs will be a practical action.
Regional efforts to establish hatcheries and stocks with known health history, e.g.
specific pathogen free (SPF) stocks, for the most frequently traded species (e.g. tilapia,
marine shrimp, giant freshwater prawn, oysters) should be strongly considered by
developing countries. Accepting risks inherent in importing live aquatic animals of
uncertain health status is not justified.
The risk analysis process is science-based and as such requires adequate supporting
scientific information based on high quality research obtained from published
TABLE 4
Examples of pathogen risk analyses for aquatic animals
Title Agency Authors/ Date
Current import risk analysis: non-viable bivalve Australian Department In progress1
molluscs. of Aquaculture,
Fisheries and Forestry
(AQIS)
Current import risk analysis: freshwater crayfish AQIS In progress
Current import risk analysis: prawns and prawn AQIS In progress
products
Current import risk analysis: freshwater finfish AQIS In progress
Import risk analysis: frozen, skinless and boneless MAF Biosecurity New Johnson (2007)
fillet meat of Oreochromis spp. from China and Zealand
Brazil for human consumption.
Import risk analysis: Freshwater prawns New Zealand Ministry MAF (2006)
(Macrobrachium rosenbergii) from Hawaii of Agriculture and
Fisheries (MAF)
Pathogen and ecological risk analysis for the Secretariat of the Bondad-Reantaso et al.
introduction of the Blue Shrimp, Litopenaeus Pacific Community (2005)
stylirostris, from Brunei Darussalam to Fiji (SPC)
Pathogen and ecological risk analysis for the SPC Arthur et al. (2005)
introduction of giant river prawn, Macrobrachium
rosenbergii, from Fiji to the Cook Islands
Import risk assessment: juvenile yellowtail kingfish Island Aquafarms, Diggles (2002)
(Seriola lalandi) from Spencer Gulf Aquaculture, Ltd. and NIWA, New
South Australia Zealand
Import risk analysis on live ornamental fish AQIS Kahn et al. (1999)
Import risk analysis on non-viable salmonids and AQIS AQIS (1999)
non-salmonid marine finfish
Supplementary import risk analysis – head-on gill- Biosecurity Authority, MAF (1999)
in Australian salmonids for human consumption. MAF
Import health risk analysis: salmonids for human Ministry of Agriculture Stone, MacDiarmid
consumption Regulatory Authority, and Pharo (1997)
New Zealand
1
Information on animal risk analyses in progress can be accessed at: http://www.daff.gov.au/ba/ira/current-animal
scientific literature. Nonetheless, unpublished information obtained from colleagues

as well as expert opinion can also be used. Scientists having considerable research
experience can make a valuable contribution to the risk analysis process. In addition
to scientific information and input from experts, an individual risk analysis may also
require specific targeted research to address critical information gaps identified during
sensitivity testing.
Greater attention should be given to generating information and knowledge essential
to risk analysis. There is thus a need to establish the appropriate research capacity and
to conduct targeted studies. Examples of essential research areas include pathogen
studies, information on trade and most importantly, studies on biological pathways
for the introduction (release assessment), establishment (exposure assessment) and
spread (consequence assessment) of a pathogen. Other important areas of research
include studies on host susceptibility; modes of transmission; infectivity, virulence
and stability; intermediate hosts and vectors; and effects of processing, storage and
transport. For newly emerging diseases as well as some diseases in poorly studied
aquatic animal species, basic studies on their pathology and methods for rapid and
accurate diagnosis are essential to facilitate accurate risk assessment and biosecurity
management. Increased surveillance of wild fish to detect significant disease problems
at an early stage is also needed (Bondad-Reantaso et al., 2005).
Occasionally, despite the best risk analysis and risk mitigation measures, serious
pathogens will be introduced and cause major disease problems. This is due to
limitations in diagnostic techniques, the existence of cryptic pathogens and the ability
of benign organisms (normally non-pathogenic parasites, bacteria, viruses, fungi,
etc.) to become pathogenic when introduced to new hosts and environments. Good
disease surveillance and reporting as well as well-designed contingency plans will be
necessary.
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Annex I
Table 1
Results of the preliminary hazard identification (note: for all pathogens,there is no information available as
to occurrence in either the exporting or the importing country) Y=Yes, N=No, P=Plausible, ?=Uncertain
Pathogen Infects PL Causes Further Comments
stage significant consideration
disease required
Viruses
White spot syndrome virus (WSSV) Y Y Y Significant pathogen of penaeid
shrimp; global distribution;
wide host range; experimental
infections lethal to Litopenaeus
stylirostris.
Infectious hypodermal and Y Y Y Significant pathogen of penaeid
haematopoietic necrosis virus shrimp; infects a wide range of
(IHHNV) penaeids; occurs both in wild
and cultured shrimp; a major
pathogen of L. stylirostris.
Taura syndrome virus (TSV) Y Y Y Significant pathogen of penaeid
shrimp; L. stylirostris recently
found to be susceptible.
Yellow head virus (YHV) Y Y Y Natural infections in Penaeus
monodon, lethal experimental
infections in L. stylirostris and
other species.
Viruses
Baculovirus penaei (BP) Y Y Y Causes serious disease in
Farfantepenaeus duorarum,
F. aztecus, L. vannamei and P.
marginatus.
Hepatopancreatic parvo-like virus Y Y Y Natural infection in P. monodon,
(HPV) Fenneropenaeus merguiensis,
P. semisulcatus and L. stylirostris.
Lymphoid organ vacuolization Y N N Identical histopathology
virus (LOVV) occasionally observed in
L. stylirostris.
Rhabdovirus of penaeid shrimp Y N N Uncertain if a true pathogen of
(RPS) penaeid shrimp.
Bacteria
Necrotising hepatopancreatitis Y Y Y Reported only from American
(NHP) penaeids (L. vannamei, F. aztecus,
L. stylirostris, L. setiferus and F.
californiensis).
Vibrio harveyi Y Y N Vibriosis affects all penaeid
V. vulnificus Y Y N species; mortality ranges from
inconsequential to 100%;
V. parahaemolyticus Y Y N worldwide distribution.
V. penaeicida Y Y Y Reported from New Caledonia;
a significant pathogen of
Marsupenaeus japonicus.
Shrimp tuberculosis ? N N Ubiquitous; potentially infectious
(Mycobacterium marinum, M. to all penaeids
fortuitum and Mycobacterium sp.)
Rickettsia-like organisms P N N L. stylirostris experimentally
infected by rickettsia of P.
marginatus.
Parasites
Haplosporidium sp. ? N N In cultured and wild penaeid
shrimp including L. stylirostris.
Fungi
Lagenidium spp. Y N N Affects all penaeids
Sirolpidium spp. Y N N Affects all penaeids
Fusarium solani P N N Opportunistic pathogen;
isolated form both cultured and
wild crustaceans. All penaeids
probably susceptible; L. stylirostris
moderately susceptible.
Source: Bondad-Reantaso et al., 20051

1
References column has been deleted from this table (see Bondad-Reantaso et al., 2005).
46
TABLE 2
Known or probable infectivity of important pathogens in Litopenaeus stylirostris and seven penaeid species
reported to occur in Fiji. (Y=Yes, N=No, P=Plausible, NI=No Information)
Pathogen1
Annex II
Litopenaeus Penaeus P. canaliculatus P. semisulcatus P. latisulcatus Fenneropenaeus Metapenaeus M. elegans

stylirostris monodon merguiensis2 anchistus
Viruses
IHHNV Y Y NI Y NI N NI NI
TSV Y Y NI NI NI Y NI NI
WSSV Y Y NI Y NI Y NI NI
YHV Y Y NI NI NI Y NI NI
BP Y N NI NI NI NI NI NI
HPV Y Y NI Y NI Y NI NI
LOVV Y Y NI NI NI NI NI NI
RPS Y NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
Bacteria
NHP Y NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
Vibrio spp. P P P P P P P P
V. penaeicida Y NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
Mycobacterium P P P P P P P P
spp.
Rickettsia-like Y NI NI NI NI Y NI NI
organisms
Parasites
Haplosporidium sp. Y NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
Fungi
Lagenidium spp. P P P P P P P P
Sirolpidium spp. P P P P P P P P
Fusarium solani Y N NI NI NI N NI NI
1
Infectious hypodermal and haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV), Taura syndrome virus (TSV), white spot syndrome virus (WSSV),
yellow head virus (YHV), Baculovirus penaei (BP), hepatopancreatic parvo-like virus (HPV), lymphoid organ vacuolization virus (LOVV),
rhabdovirus of penaeid shrimp (RPS), necrotising hepatopancreatitis (NHP).
2
Established exotic species.
Source: Bondad-Reantaso et al., 2004.
47
Application of risk analysis to

genetic issues in aquaculture
Eric Hallerman
Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Blacksburg, VA 24061-0321, United States of America
[email protected]
Hallerman, E. 2008. Application of risk analysis to genetic issues in aquaculture. In

M.G. Bondad-Reantaso, J.R. Arthur and R.P. Subasinghe (eds). Understanding and
applying risk analysis in aquaculture. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper.
No. 519. Rome, FAO. pp. 47–66.
ABSTRACT
In this review and synthesis, I explore the application of risk analysis to genetic harms
posed by aquaculture, noting significant work to date and identifying areas where work
is still needed. Harms posed by culture of a stock of aquatic organisms relate to chains
of events occurring after an escape or release from a culture system. Direct genetic
harms will flow from the cultured stock interbreeding with reproductively compatible
populations in the receiving ecosystem, and could include loss of adaptation in natural
populations, introgression of new genetic material into species’ gene pools and, in the
extreme case, loss of locally adapted populations. Risk assessment is an estimation of
the likelihood of the occurrence of genetic harm becoming realized following exposure
to a genetic hazard. The likelihood of harm being realized given exposure to a hazard
is difficult to quantify with current knowledge, and we might often be restricted to
evaluating risk qualitatively on the basis of: (1) the species at issue, (2) the effect of genetic
background or improvement on the net fitness of the animal in the receiving ecosystem
at issue and (3) the stability and resiliency of receiving community. Should distribution
and production of a cultured stock pose unacceptable genetic harm to a population in
the receiving ecosystem, the question then turns to design, selection and implementation
of a programme of actions to minimize risk. Effective communication of principles and
application of risk analysis is needed to organizations in both developed and developing
countries.
INTRODUCTION
The development of aquaculture poses major benefits for mankind. Application of
quantitative and molecular genetic principles plays an important and growing role
in the development of aquaculture. Many approaches have been applied to obtain
genetically superior aquaculture stocks (Tave, 1993; Dunham, 2004; Gjedrem, 2005),
including use of high-performance nonindigenous stocks and species and development
and use of selectively bred stocks, interspecific hybrids, triploids and transgenic
lines. Genetic improvement of cultured stocks has increased production levels and
production efficiency (WFC, 2003; ADB, 2005).
There is growing recognition that aquaculture can pose harms to natural aquatic
systems (Pillay, 1992; Bardach, 1997; Costa-Pierce, 2003). Among them are genetic
harms to natural populations in receiving ecosystems, including loss of adaptation in
natural populations, introgression of new genetic material into species’ gene pools and
in the extreme case, loss of locally adapted populations. As I explain below, principles
of risk analysis can be applied to genetic harms posed by aquaculture. The purpose of
a genetic risk analysis is to identify risk pathways, estimate risk probabilities, develop
procedures to manage risk and communicate the results to stakeholders, thereby
minimizing harm to aquatic and human populations. Principles of risk analysis have
been applied to aquaculture (Reantaso, Subasinghe and Van Anrooy, 2006), including
aspects relating to use of non-indigenous species (e.g. Kohler and Courteney, 1986)
and to some types of genetic manipulations, most notably to triploid oysters (Dew,
Berkson and Hallerman, 2003; NRC, 2004c) and transgenic fishes (e.g. OAB, 1990;
Hallerman and Kapuscinski, 1995; Kapuscinski et al., 2007a), but less thoroughly or
not at all to others. Here, I explore the application of risk analysis to genetic harms
posed by aquaculture, noting significant work to date and identifying areas where
work is still needed.
Relevant International Policy

Recognition that aquaculture poses genetic harms to natural populations is
relatively recent and has not received a high level of attention by governmental
and intergovernmental agencies. Hence, standards, guiding principles and codes of
conduct vary widely among the respective approaches used to produce cultured stocks
(Table 1). Transfer and use of non-indigenous species is addressed in a number of
national policies and international agreements (Welcomme, 1986; Sindermann, 1986;
Thorgaard and Allen, 1992). Research and commercial use of genetically modified
organisms (GMOs) is subject to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 1992),
specifically the Cartegena Protocol on Biosafety under that convention (CBD, 2000)
and implementation policies flowing from it, with national polices for aquatic GMOs
mostly still under development. Use of non-indigenous stocks, interspecific hybrids
and ploidy-manipulated aquatic species is regulated in some, but not all countries.
SCOPING A RISK ANALYSIS

Consideration of genetic harms posed by cultured fishes must be based on an
understanding of key concepts underlying the science and practice of risk analysis
TABLE 1
Selected policies, codes of practice and databases relevant to genetic risk analysis for
aquaculture stocks
Exotic species
Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (FAO, 2007b)
Code of Practice on the Introduction and Transfer of Marine Organisms (EIFAC, 1988; ICES, 1995)
FAO Technical Paper 294 (Welcomme, 1988)
Database of Introductions of Aquatic Species (FAO, 2007a)
Non-indigenous genotypes
United States court order1
Genetically modified organisms
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 1992)
Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety (CBD, 2000)
United States Coordinated Framework for the Regulation of Biotechnology (OSTP 1985, 1986)
United States Performance Standards for Safely Conducting Research with Genetically Modified Fish and
Shellfish (ABRAC, 1995)
European Union Directive 2001/18/EC (EU, 2001)
Norwegian Gene Technology Act (Norwegian Ministry of Environment, 1993)
1
In its ruling in U.S. Public Interest Research Group vs. Atlantic Salmon of Maine, the United States District Court in
Maine on May 28, 2003 banned culture of European strain Atlantic salmon in United States waters (NRC, 2004a).
(NRC, 2002). In a genetic context, a harm is defined as gene pool perturbation

resulting in negative impacts to a species. A hazard is defined as an agent or process that
has the potential to produce harm. A risk is defined as the likelihood of harm resulting
from exposure to the hazard. Risk, R, is estimated as the product of the probability
of exposure, P(E), and the conditional probability of harm given that exposure has
occurred, P(H|E). That is, R = P(E) x P(H|E). The steps in risk analysis, then, are to:
1) identify potential harms;
2) identify hazards that might lead to harms;
3) define what exposure means for an aquaculture stock and assess the likelihood of
exposure, P(E);
4) quantify the likelihood of harm given that exposure has occurred, P(H|E); and
5) multiply the resulting probabilities to yield a quantitative estimate of risk.
Exact probabilities of risk are difficult or impossible to determine for all types of
possible harm. Indeed, it is unlikely that all possible harms would be known a priori,
particularly with respect to any indirect effects. Hence, it may be necessary – based on
current knowledge of population genetics, population dynamics, receiving ecological
communities and experience with cultured stocks – to classify levels of concern
regarding likely genetic impacts posed by cultured stocks into qualitative categories
ranging from low to high.
Risk assessment might best be considered as embedded in a three-stage, interactive
framework involving the range of stakeholders (Figure 1). Involvement of the full
range of stakeholders will bring all existing knowledge into the process, make the
process transparent to stakeholders and enhance the understanding and acceptance of
the outcome of risk analysis. Stage I involves identifying the problem at hand, engaging
stakeholders, identifying possible technical solutions to the problem at hand and
identifying potential harms, risk pathways and assessment methods. Stage II is the risk
assessment itself, leading to estimating the likelihood that harm will become realized
should a proposed action be taken. Upon estimation of that risk, a decision is faced
as to whether the risk is acceptable. If it is acceptable, the decision may be made to go
forward. If the level of risk is unacceptably high, risk management measures would be
identified and residual risk quantified, and the decision of whether to go forward would
again be considered. Should the proposed action be implemented, genetic, ecological
and social outcomes should be monitored. Because all potential harms and associated
pathways cannot be known and precisely predicted a priori, it will be necessary to
update the risk analysis as knowledge accumulates using an adaptive management
approach (NRC, 1996; Kapuscinski, Nega and Hallerman, 1999). Below, I focus on
genetic harms and elaborate on each step in risk assessment.
HARM IDENTIFICATION
The harms posed by culture of a stock of aquatic organisms relate to chains of events
occurring after an escape or release from a culture system. Potential harm must be
identified on a case-by-case basis and will depend on the phenotype of the organism,
and not per se on the genetic manipulation used to produce the stock. Direct genetic
harms will flow from the cultured stock interbreeding with reproductively compatible
populations in the receiving ecosystem. Indirect effects will flow from competition
or predation by the cultured stock on other populations or species in the receiving
ecosystem.
Loss of adaptation
Natural selection mediates adaptation of a population to its environment by changing
allele frequencies at fitness-related genes. Allele frequencies at fitness-related genes
will differ among cultured stocks and wild populations. Interbreeding with escaped
cultured organisms will displace allele frequencies at fitness-related genes in wild
FIGURE 1
Overview of a highly interactive risk assessment framework (Hayes et al. 2007). The framework
is divided into three stages. In the first stage, participants agree upon an assessment option,
define the scope of the assessment, agree on a conceptual model, identify assessment and
measurement endpoints and culminate with an agreed-upon list of prioritized hazard end-
points. In the second stage, the risks and uncertainties associated with these hazard end-points
are assessed, risks compared to predetermined acceptance criteria and, as appropriate, risk
management strategies identified and evaluated. In the third stage, results of monitoring are
used to test the predictions of the risk assessment, thereby generating additional data used to
reexamine uncertainty in the risk assessment
populations from selective optima, posing loss of fitness. The degree of harm will
be a function of the degree of differentiation among the two gene pools, the relative
proportion of spawners from the respective groups and the selective pressure imposed
by the receiving ecosystem. While it should be noted that not all natural populations
at selective optima, the chance of improving fitness through breeding with escaped fish
is remote.
For some traits, fitness depends upon expressing combinations of alleles across
fitness-related loci. The coadapted gene complexes arise by chance and are maintained
by natural selection (Hallerman, 2003). For example, anadromous salmonids must
express an appropriate combination of run timing, embryonic development rate, post-
hatching behaviour, migration and maturation traits in order to complete their life cycle.
Interbreeding of differently coadapted populations poses outbreeding depression, or
loss of fitness due to breakdown of coadapted gene complexes. The degree of harm will
be a function of the degree of difference of the coadapted phenotypes and how many
genes determine the traits at issue.
Although we often focus on underlying genotypes, fitness is a phenotypic trait.
When selecting mates, individuals must assume that phenotype is a reliable indicator
of fitness. This assumption is not always reliable. For example, size is often a fitness-
related trait in fishes. However, a fish may be large because it grew in a culture system,
not because it expresses genes conferring fitness in the wild. In particular, expression
of an introduced growth hormone gene may confer large size upon a transgenic fish,
although its offspring may exhibit decreased viability. Such unfavourable tradeoffs
among fitness-related traits are termed Trojan gene effects (Muir and Howard, 2001).
If the magnitude of the tradeoff is sufficiently large, under certain demographic
conditions, a population may face the risk of extinction.
Cultured stocks often have lower effective population sizes (Ne) than natural
populations. Escape or release of cultured stocks can decrease the effective size of a
receiving population, even if the census count of individuals rises (Ryman and Laikre,
1991). Smaller effective population size implies less genetic variability and less ability
to respond adaptively to changes in selection pressures. For example, resistance
to pathogens and parasites is often a function of allelic or haplotypic diversity,
especially at major histocompatibility complex loci affecting recognition of non-self
and coordination of immune response (Hedrick, 2002). It also heightens the risk of
subsequent inbreeding.
Introgressive hybridization
Escape or stocking of a non-indigenous species poses possible interbreeding with a
reproductively compatible species in the receiving environment. Should the resulting
interspecific hybrid prove fertile, it poses the risk of introgressive hybridization with
the native species, threatening the genetic integrity of the native species (Campton, 1987;
Rhymer and Simberloff, 1996). Similarly, escape or stocking of a fertile interspecific
hybrid poses the harm of introgressive hybridization.
Indirect effects
Escape or release of cultured stocks may also pose indirect genetic harms to populations
in the receiving ecosystem. Through competition or predation, by reducing the
abundance of affected populations, the cultured stocks may reduce their effective
population size, causing loss of genetic variability and ability to adapt in face of
changing selective pressure, and also increase the likelihood of subsequent inbreeding
and extinction. Should cultured fish interbreed unsuccessfully with a population in the
receiving ecosystem, the loss of reproductive investment increases demographic risk.
This mechanism can be realized by interbreeding of a cultured stock and a natural
population resulting in a sterile hybrid. Also, triploid males of some species undergo
gonadal maturation, steroidogenesis and gametogenesis, and may secure matings
(Benfey et al., 1989; Inada and Taniguchi, 1991; Kitamura, Ogata and Onozato, 1991).
Any such matings would result in aneuploid broods (Benfey et al., 1986), which would
not prove viable (Inada and Taniguchi, 1991). Indirect effects also may be realized
through changes in the aquatic community caused by the cultured stocks.
Case studies illustrating potential harms posed by cultured stocks are presented in
Box 1.
Sources of information
Sources of information to support harm identification will vary for different classes
of aquaculture stocks. There is a large literature on harms posed by non-indigenous
species, including species pertinent to aquaculture, as well as policies developed
to control their introduction and use. Impacts of exotic fishes in the United States
are reviewed in a volume edited by Courtenay and Stauffer (1984). The American
Fisheries Society featured discussion of issues posed by introduced species in a special
publication of Fisheries (Kohler, 1986). Book-length treatments include Rosenfield and
Mann (1992) and Devoe (1992). Ecological and socio-economic impacts of invasive
alien species were reviewed by Ciruna, Meyerson and Gutierrez (2004). A Database of
BOX 1
Genetic harms posed by cultured organisms
Entry of cultured fish into natural populations may pose genetic harms to receiving populations
(Waples, 1991; Utter, 2003; Kapuscinski and Brister, 2001). Here, I present examples of such potential
harms.
Direct effects. Interbreeding of cultured stocks and natural populations poses direct genetic harms.
Natural selection operates upon alleles at fitness-related loci, over time mediating adaptation of
populations to their environments. Across a landscape, spatial heterogeneity of natural selection
results in adaptive genetic divergence of populations. However, escape of widely cultured fish stocks
and interbreeding with local populations will tend to homogenize genetic variation over time. Escapes
of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) from net-pen aquaculture comprise 70 percent of the spawning stock
in some Norwegian rivers, with a mean of 29 percent across rivers. Mork (1991) developed a model
to assess one-generation effects of escape and interbreeding of cultured fish on genetic differentiation
of natural populations. Substantial reductions in genetic differentiation – i.e. reductions of up to 80
percent in the genetic differentiation statistic, GST – were predicted. Gharrett (1994) modeled the
net effects of immigration and selection on the rate of genetic change on natural populations, but
concluded that without knowing the extent of genetically effective migration and the magnitude of
loss of fitness, it is not possible to predict outcomes. Focusing on salmonids, Hindar, Ryman and
Utter (1991) reviewed studies of the genetic effects of cultured fish on natural fish populations,
finding a wide variety of effects, from no detectable effect to complete introgression to complete
replacement of natural populations. They recommended measures for genetic protection of natural
populations, including secure confinement, use of sterile fish and monitoring of gene flow. Case
studies involving non-salmonid species are less numerous. A survey of channel catfish (Ictalurus
punctatus) populations in Alabama, United States (Simmons et al., 2006) showed no evidence of
genetic impact from loss of cultured fish into natural populations, i.e. no apparent dispacement of
allele frequencies of natural populations near fish farms from those of natural populations farther
away.
Selective forces acting across fitness-related loci may result in combinations of alleles – termed
coadapted gene complexes – that confer fitness upon their carriers. Interbreeding of a cultured stock
with a locally adapted natural population may lead to outbreeding depression and loss of fitness.
Cultured Atlantic salmon stocks are genetically and behaviourally differentiated from natural
populations (Einum and Fleming 1997; Gross 1998, NRC 2004a). A two-generation experiment
comparing fitness traits among wild, cultured, F1, F2 and backcross salmon showed that cultured
and hybrid salmon exhibited reduced survival, but faster growth than wild fish, and that their parr
displaced wild parr competitively (McGinnity et al., 2003). In an independent experiment, the lifetime
reproductive success of farmed salmon was 16 percent that of native salmon, and the productivity of
the native population was reduced by more than 30 percent by interbreeding (Fleming et al., 2000).
Fishes select mates on the basis of phenotype, which is taken as a reliable indicator of fitness.
When phenotype is misleading and individuals choose mates whose offspring ultimately exhibit low
fitness, this is termed the Trojan gene effect (Muir and Howard, 2001). The theory was developed in
order to assess risks associated with interbreeding of escaped or released transgenic fish with a natural
population. Recurrence equations predict the frequency of the transgene and population number
as a function of the degree of tradeoff among, for example, heightened mating success and reduced
juvenile viability. Simulations showed that fitness values determine whether the transgene persists,
is purged from the gene pool by selection or a Trojan gene effect occurs, leading the population to
crash. Experiments are ongoing to parameterize the model using growth hormone-transgenic medaka
and Atlantic salmon. While the theory was developed for risk assessment for transgenic fish, it could
be applied to any organism whose fitness is affected by genetic manipulation.
BOX 1 (continued)
Genetic harms posed by cultured organisms
Genetically effective sizes of cultured stocks typically are lower than those of natural populations.
Escape or release of cultured fish into a receiving population may reduce Ne and increase the risk
of inbreeding if the proportion of cultured fish is sufficiently high, an outcome termed the Ryman-
Laikre (1991) effect. Wang and Ryman (1991) and Waples and Do (1994) extended the theory to
multiple generations and considered the effect of population age structure. Hatchery Atlantic salmon
exhibited significant changes in allele frequencies and loss of low-frequency alleles relative to the
natural population from which they had been derived one generation earlier (Tessier, Bernatchez and
Wright 1997). Estimates of drift and inbreeding effective population sizes showed that the risk of
random genetic drift and inbreeding had doubled over the one generation of supplementation.
Introgressive hybridization. Escape or release of interspecific hybrids, if fertile, pose the harm of
introgressive hybridization. For example, hybrid catfish (Clarias macrocephalus x C. gariepinus)
escaping from farms in central Thailand interbred with native populations of C. macrocephalus, giving
rise to introgressive hybridization with both wild and cultured stocks (Senanan et al., 2004). Similarly,
poor management of tilapia stocks led to unwanted hybridization of previously pure species to occur
by escapes into the wild, as well as by intrusions from the wild (McAndrew and Majumdar 1983,
Macaranas et al., 1986). In Bangladeshi hatcheries, 8.3 percent of silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys
molotrix) broodstock exhibited bighead carp (Aristichthys nobilis) alleles, while 23.3 percent of
bighead carp exhibited silver carp alleles (Sattar et al., 2005). While some individuals may have been
F1 hybrids, others were advanced-generation hybrids, compromising the integrity of the respective
broodstocks and their performance in aquaculture.
Indirect effects. Escape or release of cultured stocks in the absence of interbreeding may pose indirect
effects. To elaborate on one possible mechanism, triploidy often is used as a means of reproductively
confining cultured stocks, and all-female triploid stocks may be produced to minimize demographic
risks to a receiving population. However, use of triploid aquaculture stocks raises three issues (NRC
2004c). A first issue is the efficacy with which triploids are produced, which differs between the
interploid cross among tetraploids and diploids (near 100 percent) and de novo induction (generally
<100 percent) methods (Downing and Allen 1987; Guo, deBrosse and Allen 1996), but does not
reach a full 100 percent. Hence, triploid verification will have to be implemented to manage risk.
A second issue has to do with the stability of the triploid state. A small percentage of Pacific and
Suminoe oysters have shown signs of progressive reversion to the diploid state, depending on species,
individual and tissue (S.K. Allen, Jr., quoted in NRC 2004c). A third issue pertains to the functional
sterility of triploid adults. Triploid males of some species may undergo gonadal maturation and
steroidogenesis (Benfey et al. 1989). Male triploid fish have sometimes been found to produce haploid
or aneuploid sperm (Lincoln and Scott 1984; Allen, Thiery and Hagstrom 1986; Benfey et al., 1986;
Allen 1987) Should they mate with diploid females (Inada and Taniguchi 1991; Kitamura, Ogata and
Onozato 1991), the resulting broods will prove inviable, reducing the reproductive success of the
receiving population. Triploid females generally show little ovary development, although there are
some apparent exceptions in both fish (Benfey and Sutterlin 1984) and shellfish (Komaru and Wada,
1989, Allen and Downing, 1990). Triploid Pacific and Suminoe oysters are almost, but not completely
sterile (Allen and Downing, 1990, Guo and Allen 1994). Should the non-native species escape genetic
confinement in the Cheapeake Bay, it would pose competition with the already-declining native
Eastern oyster (NRC 2004c, Box 2).
Introductions of Aquatic Species (DIAS) is maintained by the Food and Agriculture

Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (Bartley et al., 2006; FAO, 2007a). Studies
identifying harms posed by non-indigenous genotypes to receiving populations
notably include Hindar, Ryman and Utter (1991), Utter (2003), and Kapuscinski
and Brister (2001). Campton (1987) reviews interspecific hybridization in fishes,

and Schwartz (1972, 1981) provides citations to the early literature on hybridization
in fishes. Harms posed by triploids have been reviewed by ABRAC (1995) and the
NRC (2004b, c). Harms posed by transgenic fish and shellfish have been reviewed by
ABRAC (1995), the Scientists’ Working Group on Biosafety (1998), the NRC (2002,
2004a) and Kapuscinski et al. (2007a).
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION
In the context of genetic risk analysis, the hazardous agent is the cultured stock
because it is the entity that poses genetic harm to populations in a receiving ecosystem.
In the aquaculture context, the hazardous agent may be a non-indigenous species;
an interspecific hybrid; or a non-indigenous, selectively bred, triploid or transgenic
stock.
RISK ASSESSMENT
In the context of genetic risk analysis, risk assessment is an estimation of the likelihood
of the occurrence of genetic harm becoming realized following exposure to a genetic
hazard. Because realization of harm would require occurrence of a chain of events, it
often is useful to consider risk assessment in terms of the components of the chain. For
example, Figure 2 illustrates the sequence of events needed to assess the likelihood of
direct genetic harm becoming realized from culture of a transgenic fish (Kapuscinski
et al., 2007b). To illustrate risk assessment for a specific case, examples of the types
of data, studies and scientific expertise that would be needed to assess risks related to
gene flow from transgenic fish to wild populations are presented in Table 2. Below, I
elaborate upon release assessment, exposure assessment and consequence assessment,
followed by risk estimation.
Likelihood of release
Routine aquaculture operations frequently involve the loss of small numbers of cultured
fish to the natural environment, with occasional catastrophic losses of larger numbers
of fish due to equipment failure, storm damage or flood (Hallerman and Kapuscinski,
1992; CEQ and OSTP, 2001). The information required for a release assessment in
a particular context relates to the biological factors, commodity factors and country
factors pertinent to that aquaculture system. Biological factors relate to the aquatic
species at issue, as they affect the likelihood of escape. Finfishes are mobile; in particular
the smallest life stages are hard to confine. Crustaceans vary, with many decapods
able to escape by crawling or burrowing out of culture systems. Molluscs are easy to
confine at the benthic adult stage, but harder to confine at the pelagic juvenile stages;
in some cases, the earliest life stages can escape confinement in aerosols. Commodity
factors relate to production methods; that is, different culture systems provide a
continuum of confinement, from low to high ranging from extensive production in
near-natural systems, to cages and net-pens in oceans and lakes, to intensive production
in managed ponds and raceways, to indoor recirculating systems. Country factors are a
consequence of policies and permit systems regulating aspects of siting, culture systems
and operations management procedures, as they all affect likelihood of release. In the
lack of express or enforced policies, operations of individual farms will vary widely
and complicate a release assessment. Especially for developing-country contexts, such
a release assessment must assume that cultured stock will escape.
Likelihood of exposure
Upon escape or release, for a cultured stock to prove a hazard, it must establish itself
in the community long enough to impose harm. Hence, for risk assessment, the critical
factor is the likelihood that the cultured stock will become established in the receiving
FIGURE 2
A conceptual pathway for conducting an assessment of gene flow from a
ransgenicstock to a wild population (Kapuscinski et al., 2007 b). Asterisks denote
assessment steps that require empirical data on traits of the transgenic fish
ecosystem, which is P(E). The likelihood of establishment is dependent on three

factors: the species’ invasiveness, fitness of the selectively bred stock and characteristics
of the receiving ecosystem.
A first aspect of evaluating likelihood of genetic exposure to a cultured stock is
the species’ invasiveness, i.e. its ability to escape, disperse and become feral in aquatic
communities. Many aquaculture species – notably including tilapias, carps and
salmonids – exhibit great abilities to disperse and establish themselves in ecosystems in
which they are not native.
A second aspect of ecological exposure is the fitness of the cultured stock in the
receiving ecosystem. Production traits in domesticated aquaculture stocks include
improved growth rate, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance. Traits
conferring fitness in culture systems may not be the same as those conferring fitness
TABLE 2
Examples of types of data, studies and scientific expertise needed to assess gene flow from transgenic fish
to wild populations (Kapuscinski et al., 2007 b)
Description of Data Need Types of Studies1 (Generally from Simplest to Studies (May) Require Expertise in:
Most Complex):
Data to estimate entry potential
What is the rate of escape • Field studies to detect and quantify escapees • Fisheries assessment methods
from existing aquaculture • Mandatory self-reporting of escapes by • Molecular genetics methods, such as
or experimental facilities relevant facilities (requires infrastructure for PCR-mediated detection of specific
(“propagule pressure”)? enforcement) genes
• Mark-recapture studies
• Use of molecular genetics markers
• Mixed-stock analysis
• Video surveillance
What is the pattern of escapes • Field studies to detect escapees • Fish population dynamics and field
from existing aquaculture • Molecular lab studies, especially when assessment methods
facilities? genetic markers are the only way to • Life history of the species in
differentiate cultured and wild fish question
• Use of telemetry systems • Spatial (GIS) modeling
What proportion of immature • Mark-recapture field experiments • Life history of the species in
transgenic escapees are likely to • Laboratory experiments to determine question
survive to sexual maturity in the survival rates relative to wild-type • Fish population dynamics and field
natural environment? • Mixed-stock analysis assessment methods
• Fish ecology
Data to estimate introgression potential
Do transgenic escapees disperse • Field sampling for presence of escapees at • Life history of the species in
in a spatial and temporal pattern critical times and places vis-à-vis the native question
and in a phenotypic state that population • Fisheries assessment methods
make them likely to find available • Laboratory experiments and spatial • Spatial (GIS) modeling
mates? modeling
Are transgenic escapees likely • Laboratory studies of mating behaviours of • Life history of the species in
to mate with wild conspecifics transgenic fish question, especially of mating
(or to hybridize with closely • Field sampling to determine what behaviours and breeding in captivity
related species) in the natural environments are suitable for reproduction • Fisheries assessment methods
environment?
Are F1 or BCn progeny likely to • Laboratory experiments in which matings • Life history of the species in
survive and reproduce successfully between transgenic and wild fish can be question, especially of mating
in the natural environment? controlled behaviours and breeding in captivity
• Genetics and breeding programmes
What is the relative net fitness • Laboratory experiments in which transgenic • Life history of the species in
of transgenic fish, compared and comparative strains of fish can be question, especially as it might
to a selected captive or wild bred and measured for fitness components guide prioritizing the most
population? (fecundity, fertility, age at sexual maturity, important fitness component traits
mating advantage, juvenile viability, adult to examine
viability)
What is the spatial distribution of • Field sampling for presence of wild fish • Fish systematics (ichthyology) for
populations of wild conspecifics, • Telemetry studies correct identification of fish species
or closely related species, in the in the wild
accessible ecosystem? • Fish behavioural ecology
• Fisheries assessment methods
• Population genetics techniques and
analysis
How many reproductively active • Field sampling for direct estimation of • Fish population dynamics and field
wild conspecifics, or closely abundance of wild fish assessment methods
related species, live in the • Mark-recapture studies
accessible ecosystem?
Other desirable data
How might transgenic fish’s • Laboratory experiments in which fish • Fish behaviour
phenotype be expressed in a can be exposed to manipulations of • Fish genetics
variable natural environment? environmental variables contributing to • Life history of the species in
survival and reproductive success in the wild question, especially as it might
(e.g. variable density, natural food or other guide prioritizing the most
simulations of natural habitat features) important environmental variables
What is the population genetic • Field sampling wild fish to collect tissue • Population genetics techniques and
structure of the wild populations? • Laboratory analysis of genetic structure analysis
of population (allozyme to DNA marker
studies)
How will the genetic background • Laboratory experiments in which matings • Life history of the species in
of the transgenic and wild between transgenic and wild fish from question, especially of mating
strains affect the probability of different strains can be controlled behaviours and breeding in captivity
introgression? • Genetics and breeding programmes
1
Any studies using transgenic fish should be well confined to prevent the escape of transgenic fish into the wild.
in the wild. A key question, then, is how genetic improvement might indirectly affect
traits determining fitness in the receiving ecosystem, perhaps affecting the likelihood
that the cultured stock would become established in the receiving ecosystem. Genetic
improvement that increases fitness increases the probability of establishment and
results in a higher level of genetic concern. It is difficult to make predictions of the
effects of genetic improvement on fitness in the wild in a general sense. For example,
experience with domestic farm animals suggests that selective breeding generally does
not increase the fitness of animals in natural environments, for example, because of
physiologic imbalances or growth demands in excess of food availability in natural
environments. However, genetic concerns posed by aquaculture stocks expressing
improved production traits cannot be dismissed as non-concerns. Selective breeding
has not differentiated most fish stocks dramatically from the wild type and, hence, their
fitness in the wild generally is expected to remain high. It is possible for selectively bred
stocks to overcome, for example, viability disadvantages if other fitness components
are enhanced, such as mating success, fecundity or age at sexual maturity. The key
issue is change in the net fitness of the selectively bred fish over the entire life cycle.
The six net fitness components of an organism’s life cycle to be considered are juvenile
viability, adult viability, age at sexual maturity, female fecundity, male fertility and
mating success (Muir and Howard, 2001).
The third aspect of ecological exposure is the stability and resilience of the receiving
community. A community is regarded as stable if ecological structure and function
indicators return to initial conditions following perturbation (Pimm, 1984). Resilience
is the property of how fast the structure or function indicators return to their initial
conditions following perturbation. Ecosystems that are most stable will suffer the least
harm, with unstable communities suffering the greatest harm. For example, decreases
in native species following introductions of tilapias occurred most frequently in aquatic
ecosystems with less diversified fish faunas; decreases in native species were observed
in high elevation lakes of Madagascar with few native species, but not in coastal lakes
with many native species (Moreau, 1983). Characterization of community stability
and resilience does not generally prove straightforward. Agreement on how to assess
community resiliency likely will come only when viewpoints focusing separately on
population dynamics, energetics and adaptations of individual species are reconciled
(Ricklefs, 1990).
A key caveat for assessing ecological exposure is that we cannot limit the spread of an
escaped aquaculture stock to a particular receiving ecosystem. Thus, we must consider
whether a cultured stock can become established in all possible ecosystems to which it
can gain access. If any of these communities is vulnerable, ecological concern would be
high. For this reason, precaution suggests that risk should be assessed and managed for
the most vulnerable ecosystem into which the escaped or released aquaculture stock is
likely to gain access.
CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT
Because of the uniqueness of each cultured stock, culture system and receiving
ecosystem, evaluating ecological risk will have to be conducted on a case-by-case basis.
The likelihood of harm being realized given exposure to a hazard is difficult to quantify,
especially with a lack of empirical data for the many kinds of genetic stocks at issue.
This linkage is the weakest aspect of current understanding for genetic risk analysis.
As a consequence, we might often be restricted to evaluating risk qualitatively on the
basis of: (1) the species at issue, (2) the effect of genetic background or improvement
on the net fitness of the animal in the receiving ecosystem at issue and (3) the stability
and resiliency of receiving community. The outcome of such an analysis is likely to
be a predication that likelihood of harm given exposure to a genetic hazard is “high”,
“medium”, “low” or “near-zero”.
Estimation of risk
Rating an overall level of genetic risk posed by a given action then would be based
on the product of the three factors, likelihood of release, likelihood of exposure and
likelihood of harm given exposure. Because the overall level of genetic risk is a product,
if one is negligible, then the overall level of concern would be low. In contrast, genetic
improvement that increases fitness of a highly invasive species for introduction into a
vulnerable community raises a high level of concern. The estimate of risk might then
be compared to a previously set acceptable level of risk (ALOR) to determine whether
to go ahead, whether to reconsider the action under conditions of risk management or
whether to reject the action at issue.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Should an oversight body determine that distribution and production of a cultured
stock poses genetic harm to a population in the receiving ecosystem, the question then
turns to how to manage the associated risk. Risk management is the design, selection
and implementation of a programme of actions to minimize risk. Considering genetic
harms in the context of formal risk analysis, it becomes clear that the best approach for
minimizing the likelihood of harm being realized is to minimize exposure to the hazard
(Mair, Nam and Solar, in press). Four non-mutually exclusive approaches include: (1)
geographic location, (2) physically confining the cultured stock on aquaculture facilities,
(3) reproductively confining cultured stocks and (4) operations management.

Geographic location. Context is key; the ease or difficulty of managing risk will depend
greatly on the geographic location of an aquaculture facility. Sites subject to flooding,
violent storms or wave action are poorly suited for confinement of production
stocks.

Physical confinement. Physical confinement of cultured aquatic organisms will require
a combination of measures in order to prove effective (ABRAC, 1995). Virtually all
physical confinement systems will include barriers to escape of cultured organisms
from the culture site, including mechanical or physical/chemical barriers. Mechanical
barriers are structures that physically hold back cultured organisms from escaping the
project site. Examples include stationary or moving screens (e.g. floor drains, standpipe
screens), tank covers, filters (e.g. gravel traps), grinders or pumps and French drains. A
French drain is a filter for screening effluent from an aquaculture facility that contains
gravel and geotextiles through which even small lifestages cannot pass. Physical or
chemical barriers use manipulation of physical (e.g. temperature) or chemical (e.g. pH)
attributes of effluent water to induce 100 percent mortality of any escaped organisms
before they can reach the accessible ecosystem. The set of barriers must prevent escape
of the hardest-to-retain lifestage held at the aquaculture operation, usually the smallest
lifestage. Because no barrier is 100 percent effective at all times, for effective physical
confinement, each possible escape path from the aquaculture facility would have
redundant barriers to escape of cultured organisms. Barriers also must prevent access
of predators that can carry cultured organisms off-site (e.g. avian predators) or damage
ponds (e.g. muskrats), allowing escape of cultured organisms.

Reproductive confinement. A key element of many risk management strategies is
reproductive confinement, especially for cases where physical confinement alone is
unlikely to prove effective. Two approaches, culture of monosex or sterile stocks,
might be applied singly or in combination. All-triploid stocks can be produced
most reliably by the crossing of diploid and tetraploid broodstock, although lack of
tetraploid broodstock precludes the approach for many species. Alternatively, triploid
stocks can be produced by de novo induction. De novo triploidy induction is not
always 100 percent effective and, hence, triploid broods will have to be screened to
determine whether they are indeed all-triploid (NRC, 2004b). This extra handling
and screening adds to the cost of seed-stock production. Other approaches for
reproductive confinement may become available in the future (Devlin and Donaldson,
1992), including the possibility of reversible sterility through transgenesis (Uzbekova
et al., 2000).

Operations management. Operations management is a key, though often overlooked,
aspect of a confinement system. Measures are needed to: (1) ensure that normal activities
of workers at the aquaculture operation are consistent with the goal of effective
confinement, (2) prevent unauthorized human access to the site and (3) ensure regular
inspection and maintenance of physical confinement systems. Effective supervision of
project personnel is critical for operations management. Materials transfer agreements
may prove important for limiting ill-considered distribution of aquaculture stocks.
Operations management must consider biosecurity after cultured organisms are
removed purposefully from the culture site, that is, through the marketing process.
For biosecurity purposes, it would be best if only dead fish were sent to market. This
is counter to marketing practices in many countries, where live sales prevail. Live
sale is a known route for introductions of non-indigenous species, and evidenced
by recent introductions of snakeheads (Perciformes: Channidae) and swamp eels
(Synbranchiformes: Synbranchidae) in the United States (Collins et al., 2002; Orrell
and Weight, 2005).
Effective risk management calls for combinations of confinements. Combinations of

risk management measures are advisable so that failure of any one measure will not
necessarily lead to escape of confined stocks. It is infeasible to anticipate the best
combination of risk management measures for every possible case. Differences in
species, production traits, receiving ecosystems and culture systems will affect the case-
by-case determination of appropriate risk management measures. The issue of what
combination of risk management measures proves practical for a programme where
the goal is to provide poor farmers with access to high-performance stocks requires
further discussion.
Adaptive management. Many critical unknowns complicate risk assessment and risk
management for aquaculture stocks. The adaptive management approach is based on
recognition that knowledge of the environmental and social systems into which the
aquaculture stocks would enter is always incomplete. Management should evolve
as knowledge of these systems increases. Management cannot adapt if realized by a
single passage through breeding, decision of whether and how to distribute the stocks
and implementation of the distribution programme. Instead, adaptive management
would include risk assessment for candidate areas for distribution, incorporation of
risk management in the distribution programme and capacity building as appropriate
to meet programme goals. Once the aquaculture stocks are distributed, culture
operations and receiving ecosystems would be monitored for indicators of ecological
and social conditions. Should monitoring indicate that benefits are being realized
without harms occurring, then few if any adjustments to programme implementation
are required. However, should monitoring indicate that production of cultured stocks
is not contributing to nutritional and economic well-being of farmers or that the
stocks are escaping and impacting receiving ecosystems, then it will prove necessary to
redefine goals, revise implementation and continue monitoring. Kapuscinski, Nega and
Hallerman (1999) discuss adaptive management regarding biotechnologically modified
organisms; the general approach is readily adaptable to all classes of aquaculture
stocks.
RISK COMMUNICATION
Genetic risk communication is the transmission of the ongoing process and ultimate
results of genetic risk analysis to stakeholders and the general public. In particular, pre-
agreed contingency plans, which are part of the FAO (1995) precautionary approach, as
a useful form of risk communication and for achieving agreement on what to do if things
go wrong, or well. Genetic risk assessment and risk management are emerging areas in
aquaculture science. While genetic hazards are well known, the associated risks are not
well quantified. Genetic risk management, while widely applied at the research scale, is
not widely applied at commercial aquaculture operations. Hence, we do not yet have a
body of case studies to exemplify effective communication of genetic risk management.
Development and implementation of communication strategies for genetic risk
analysis will involve crafting the message appropriate to the case at hand and its effective
delivery to target audiences. Two sorts of message are at issue – general explanation of
risk analysis as applied to genetic harms and information about applications of risk
analysis to specific genetic issues facing the aquaculture community. Results of risk
analysis should be communicated to all stakeholders, including agency officials (in
national, regional and international agencies, including the FAO, the aquaculture
sector, the nongovernmental organization (NGO) sector, the academic sector and
the general public. Different groups of stakeholders will be reached most effectively
by different means. Written materials will include FAO publications, such as the
proceedings of this workshop, and technical manuals (e.g. ABRAC, 1995; Scientists’
Working Group on Biosafety, 1998; Kapuscinski et al., 2007a). Electronic media will
include interactive websites (e.g. ABRAC, 1995). Risk communication through direct
interpersonal contact will prove effective and should include discussions of aquaculture
extension agents with small farmers and workshops at regional aquaculture meetings
targeting the commercial sector. Instructional materials should be developed that
integrate genetic risk analysis into fisheries and aquaculture curricula.
CONCLUSIONS
Aquaculture operations pose genetic harms to natural populations in the receiving
environment. The risk analysis framework is useful for identifying, evaluating and
addressing genetic harms posed by escape or release of aquaculture stocks. Direct
genetic harms include loss of adaptation, introgressive hybridization and reduction
of effective population size, community-level changes; indirect effects upon other
species might be mediated by predation or competition. The likelihood of release from
an aquaculture operation depends upon the species, culture system and operations
management practices at issue. The likelihood of exposure due to establishment of an
aquaculture stock in the receiving ecosystem depends upon its invasiveness and net
fitness, and upon the stability and resilience of the receiving ecosystem. The likelihood
of harm becoming realized given exposure to the hazard is difficult to quantify given
present knowledge, and in the immediate term, may be best considered qualitatively.
Risk is estimated by multiplying the likelihoods of release, exposure and harm given
exposure to the hazard. In the aquaculture context, risk management focuses on
minimizing exposure to the hazard by means of physical confinement, reproductive
confinement and operations management procedures. Effective risk communication
will require explanation of how risk analysis is applied to genetic issues, as well as
discussion of case studies relevant to aquaculture.
FUTURE CHALLENGES
A number of technical issues face genetic risk analysis for aquaculture stocks.
Regarding genetic risk assessment, more baseline data and case studies are needed.
Opportunities for many informative case studies were effectively lost for the lack
of baseline data or because we did not monitor a population until after a genetic
harm was realized. Background information useful as case study material is scattered
across the scientific and grey literature and is not as well developed for aquaculture
as for fisheries management. Understanding of some key issues – e.g. likelihood of
outbreeding depression and fitness of transgenic fishes – is still emerging. Other future
challenges include lack of knowledge of: long-term impacts of genetic changes, levels
of variation needed to maintain viable populations over the long term and relative risks
of different classes of genetically modified aquaculture stocks. Hence, development
of quantitative genetic risk analysis is very incomplete, especially with regard to
estimating the likelihood of harm becoming realized given exposure to a hazardous
agent. There are but a handful of definitive case studies of formal genetic risk analysis
in the aquaculture literature – notable examples include the finding of no significant
impact for the Auburn University field test of transgenic common carp (OAB, 1990)
and the risk analysis for introduction of triploid Asian oysters into Chesapeake Bay
(Dew, Berkson and Hallerman, 2003; NRC, 2004c; Box 2). Taken together, all these
observations suggest the need for more genetic risk analysis studies, especially for
nonsalmonid systems. Regarding risk management, while reliable confinement can be
achieved for capital-intensive systems, more effort must be directed to developing and
demonstrating cost-effective confinement systems for small aquaculture operations.
Regarding oversight of aquaculture by governments and non-governmental
organizations, while the theory of risk analysis is established, we as a profession need
to apply it, drawing upon definitive case studies for guidance. As experience is gained,
an adaptive approach to management of aquaculture systems would be appropriate,
not only for genetic risks, but also more generally for other types of risks. Effective
communication of principles and application of risk analysis is needed to organizations
in both developed and developing countries. There is a need for capacity-building in
oversight bodies, especially in the public sector.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I am grateful to the organizers – especially to Melba Reantaso – for challenging me to
broaden my thinking about genetic risk analysis to consider the full range of aquaculture
stocks and for covering my expenses for attending the workshop. The manuscript was
strengthened by attention to thoughtful comments of an anonymous reviewer.
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67
Ecological risk assessment and

management of exotic organisms
associated with aquaculture
activities
Kenneth M.Y. Leung

The Swire Institute of Marine Science
Division of Ecology & Biodiversity, School of Biological Sciences
The University of Hong Kong
Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
[email protected]
David Dudgeon
Division of Ecology & Biodiversity
School of Biological Sciences
The University of Hong Kong
Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
[email protected]
Leung, K.M.Y. and Dudgeon, D. 2008. Ecological risk assessment and management of
exotic organisms associated with aquaculture activities. In M.G. Bondad-Reantaso, J.R.
Arthur and R.P. Subasinghe (eds). Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture.
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper. No. 519. Rome, FAO. pp. 67–100.
ABSTRACT
Ecological risk assessment (ERA) can be defined as a logical and systematic process
for objectively defining the probability of an adverse effect (or impact) on an organism
or collection of organisms when challenged by an environmental modification such as
introduction of exotic organisms. Aquaculture activities have been thought to be one of
the major pathways for introducing exotic aquatic species that may become established
as nuisance or pest species. This review provides comprehensive guidelines in ecological
hazard identification, risk analysis methodologies, risk management and communication
in relation to the introduction of exotic species, particularly those with the potential
to become established pests. The best strategy for minimizing impacts from invasive
species is to prevent their introduction and their subsequent release or escape into the
environment. Effective ERA processes are, therefore, needed to identify most or all
potentially invasive species and restrict their introduction or use in aquaculture, while
encouraging the use of species that have low invasion potential and can provide net
economic benefits for the aquaculture industry and society at large. Both qualitative and
quantitative ERA approaches are described in this review, but more emphasis is placed on
the former because of its simplicity and practicality. Given the fact that data availability
has a huge influence on the quality and confidence of the risk assessment, it is essential
to put more effort and funding into basic research on the life histories, population
dynamics and ecology of aquaculture organisms and establish better regional and
international information systems concerning these species. Most importantly, concerted

efforts should be made to educate consumers and industries about the ecological risk
and economic impacts of invasive organisms, and mandate implementation of legally
binding species-specific risk assessments and risk management so as to reduce the risks
of biological invasion through aquaculture activities.
INTRODUCTION
Ecological risk assessment (ERA) can be defined as the process of determining the
nature and likelihood of effects of anthropogenic actions on animals, plants and
the environment (SETAC, 1997; USEPA, 1998). In more precise terms, ERA is a
logical and systematic process for objectively defining the probability of an adverse
effect (or impact) on an organism or collection of organisms when challenged with
an environmental modification such as habitat destruction, chemical contamination,
invasion of exotic species, infection with disease organisms or some other potential
stressor (Newman, Roberts and Hale, 2001; Sergeant, 2002). In 1998, the United
States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) published the Federal Guidelines
for ERA (USEPA, 1998), which provides the basic terminology, concepts, assessment
framework and step-by-step procedures of ERA, with special emphasis on assessing
ecological risks of chemical contamination. In general, ERA includes four key
phases:
• problem formulation (i.e. identification of hazards and sensitive receivers);
• parallel analysis of exposure and effect (i.e. pathway and risk analysis);
• risk characterization; and
• risk management and communication.
Such a framework has been recently adopted to assess ecological risks associated
with aquaculture activities (e.g. Visuthismajarn et al., 2005; Colnar and Landis, 2007).
For instance, the Working Group 31 on Environmental Impacts of Coastal Aquaculture
of the IMO/FAO/UNESCO-IOC/WMO/WHO/IAEA/UN/UNEP Joint Group of
Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP)
has examined the issue of risk assessment of coastal aquaculture with the objectives
of promoting harmonization and consistency in the analysis of risk and uncertainty,
and improving risk communication (Hambrey and Southall, 2002). Although this
GESAMP report covers many important topics such as ERAs for pollutants released
from the farms, alternation of benthic communities beneath the farm and interaction
of farmed fish with wild populations (Chapter 9; Hambrey and Southall, 2002), it does
not deal with ecological risks arising from diseases originating in farmed animals or the
introduction of exotic species.
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION IN AQUACULTURE
Ecological (pest) hazard identification

There are diverse operational systems in aquaculture, ranging from inland pond culture
to offshore ocean culture with submerged cages (Table 1). The major farming species
also vary, including various finfish, shrimp, crab, lobster, oyster, mussel, snail, abalone
and sea cucumbers. Different operational systems and farming species pose different
ecological risks to the surrounding natural environment (Table 1). These ecological
risks can be broadly classified into seven categories:
• habitat alternation or destruction;
• organic pollution and eutrophication;
• chemical contamination with pesticides and therapeutics;
• infection with disease organisms;
TABLE 1
Ecological risks associated with various aquaculture operation systems. Anticipated relative risk levels are indicated with abbreviations
Ecological hazard Inland closed systems Semi-open systems in wetland/ Open-water systems (lakes or coastal waters) Offshore open-
(freshwater) mangrove (brackishwater) ocean systems
Fish pond Shrimp/crab/ Fish tidal pond Shrimp/crab/ Open-water Open-water cages Bivalves on lines Clams on Submersible cages
snail sea cucumber cages/ net-pen for shrimp/crab or in cages natural sandy for offshore finfish
pond tidal pond or fish shore
1 Habitat alternation or
M M V V H H H H H
destruction
2 Organic pollution and
L1 L1 V V H–V2 H–V2 L–M2 L M
eutrophication
3 Chemical
contamination
L L V V V V N.A. N.A. M–H
with pesticides and
therapeutics
4 Genetic risks of
escaped culture M–H M–H V V V V V V V
animals
5 Introduction of exotic
V V V V V V V V V
“contaminant” species
6 Infection with disease
H H H H H H H H H
organisms
7 Use of wild pelagic
L–H3 L–M H L–M H L–M N.A. N.A. V
fish for feed
1
Assuming that effluent and sediment are treated before reuse or disposal.
2
The risk level depends on the stocking density.
3
The risk level would be reduced if polyculture mode is adopted (i.e. farming herbivores, omnivores and carnivorous fishes in the same pond).
Legend: V – very high risk; H – high risk; M – moderate risk; L – low risk; NA – not applicable
Ecological risk assessment and management of exotic organisms associated with aquaculture activities
69
• genetic risks of escaped culture animals;

• depletion of wild fish stock to provide food for cultured carnivorous fish; and
• introduction of exotic species.
The overall ecological risks of inland closed-culture systems with proper confinement
are anticipated to be comparatively low provided that the effluent and any contaminated
sediment are treated and handled properly (Table 1). In contrast, tidal-pond, open-
water cage (or net-pen) and offshore ocean culture systems pose relatively higher
ecological risks because of the direct contact between the farms and adjacent aquatic
environments. Wastes are directly discharged to the natural habitat, while farmed
animals can more easily escape from the farm to the environment through human errors
(e.g. escape during transfer between cages, so called “leakage”) or episodic events (e.g.
storms or tropical cyclones) (Table 1). As other articles in this proceedings deal with
the ecological risks associated with pollution from farm wastes and chemicals (Phillips
and Subasinghe, 2008, this volume), pathogens and diseases (Reantaso and Arthur,
2008, this volume), as well as the genetic risks from escaped organisms (Hallerman,
2008, this volume), this article primarily aims to provide comprehensive guidelines
in ecological hazard identification, risk analysis methodologies, risk management and
communication in relation to the introduction of exotic species, particularly those with
the potential to become established pests or nuisance organisms.
Definition of hazards associated with introduction of exotic species

Accidental or intentional introductions of non-native species have become an alarming
global environmental problem, because many of these introduced non-native species
are able to establish, spread and eventually become nuisance and/or invasive beyond
their natural ranges (Elton, 1958; Sugunan, 1995; Kolar and Lodge, 2001; Jeschke and
Strayer, 2005; De Silva et al., 2006; Soto et al., 2006). In some cases, these introduced
organisms become competitors that deplete or exclude native species where their niches
overlap, through competition for space or food. In other instances, they may drive
native species to extinction through direct predation. For example, the introduction of
the predatory Nile perch (Lates niloticus) in the 1950s into Lake Victoria, East Africa,
has been cited as causing the extinction of more than 200 native fish species (Reinthal
and King, 1997). Similarly, there is evidence that the introduction of predatory fish
into the Sepik River, New Guinea, in an attempt to enhance fisheries stocks, has been
associated with the decline of indigenous species (Dudgeon and Smith, 2006). Other
biological impacts of invaders include interbreeding between escaped aquaculture
animals and wild conspecifics (Youngson et al., 2001), transmission of disease and/
or parasites (Snyder and Evans, 2006) and alternation of community structure. Chen
(1989) reported that the introduction of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idellus) in
Donghu Lake in Wuhan, People’s Republic of China, dramatically reduced submerged
macrophytes, resulting in ecological changes that brought about increases in the
abundance of silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Aristichthys
nobilis) but, more importantly, the disappearance of most of the 60 native fish species
in the lake.
Apart from these ecological impacts, the establishment of invasive organisms
may have social and economic impacts. Introduced salmonids in southern Chile, for
example, resulted in substantial changes in the abundance and distribution of native
fishes, with profound consequences for fishing practices and fisheries management
(Soto, Jara and Moreno, 2001). The economic impacts included the costs of losing
natural resources and the environmental services they support (e.g. native species and
biodiversity) and controlling the nuisance species.
Once invaders establish in the wild, it is extremely difficult to eradicate them, and
such control measures are often very costly and ineffective. For example, the United
States and Canada together spend about US$ 15 million annually to control the sea
Ecological risk assessment and management of exotic organisms associated with aquaculture activities 71
lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in the Great Lakes (Goddard, 1997). The overall
economic costs of invasive species in the United States alone have been estimated
at US$ 120 billion annually (Pimentel et al., 2000, 2005). Furthermore, 42 percent
of the species on the threatened or endangered species lists in the United States are
at risk primarily because of exotic invasive species (Pimentel, Zuniga and Morrison,
2005). It is a reflection of the ecological and economic impacts of biological invasions
that a number of treaties and agreements (obligatory and voluntary) exist at the
international and regional levels to provide legal instruments and institutions for
prevention and control of invasive species. Those concerned with aquatic taxa are
listed in Annex 1.
Aquaculture activities are considered one of the major pathways for introducing
non-native aquatic species that may become invasive (Weigle et al., 2005; Casal, 2006).
First, exotic species that are deliberately introduced for culture may subsequently
escape from the farm and establish themselves as nuisance organisms in the wild.
Introduction of tilapias (Cichlidae: Oreochromis, Tilapia and Sarotherodon) as foodfish
in fresh or brackishwater aquaculture systems, for example, has resulted in significant
ecological and economic impacts in the tropics and subtropics (Canonico et al., 2005).
Secondly, farmed species such as oysters, clams and mussels can harbour other exotic
“contaminant” species (including pests, parasites and pathogens) on their shells, in their
tissues or associated with sediments in their bodies or mantle cavities (Minchin, 1996).
Therefore, aquaculture-related transfers of half-grown oysters between countries can
result in the unintentional introduction of exotic species and pathogens (see examples
in Minchin, 1996).
Once exotic species have been introduced, there is a significant likelihood that
they will become invasive species. Jeschke and Strayer (2005) have estimated that
approximately one in four vertebrate introductions becomes invasive. Consequently,
the best strategy for minimizing impacts from invasive species is to prevent their
introduction and their subsequent release or escape into the environment (Weigle
et al., 2005). Effective risk assessment processes are needed to identify most or all
potentially invasive species and restrict their introduction or use in aquaculture, while
encouraging the use of species that have low invasion potential and can provide net
economic benefits for the aquaculture industry and society at large (Keller, Lodge and
Finnoff, 2007). Leung et al. (2002) have estimated that if the introduction of the zebra
mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) had been prevented by spending US$0.32 million in
risk assessments and prevention measures, the benefits to the United States of America
would far exceed the US$0.5 million spent annually in managing this established
invader. In addition to more effective risk assessments of potential invasiveness of
candidate species before introduction, improved management and practices in handling
and transport of aquaculture organisms (e.g. appropriate packaging in transportation,
effective quarantine and sterilization of water from shipping containers), as well as
education and communication with the practitioners and stakeholders are needed.
A conceptual model and essential information for hazard identification

It is of utmost importance that regulatory authorities, risk assessors and risk managers
understand the processes involved in the introduction, establishment and spread of
exotic species in aquaculture industries before beginning risk analysis. The invasion
sequence typically follows five key steps:
(1) individuals of the target species are collected and transported from their native
geographical range to new locations where they do not occur naturally (they
must survive handling and transportation stresses);
(2) the target species is introduced into the new location where it is an exotic species
(the introduction may be intentional or unintentional);
(3) individuals become established at the point of introduction;
(4) the established population subsequently grows and spreads to other locations;
and
(5) the invaders became a nuisance and cause ecological and economic impacts
(Figure 1).
It is theoretically possible to predict and assess the invasion risk of the candidate
species based on this model by way of multiple-level evaluations of the survival
probability in Step 1, the chance of introduction via different pathways (e.g. accidental
escape) in Step 2, the chance of establishment in the wild in relation to environmental
conditions (e.g. temperature, salinity and food availability) in Step 3, and the likelihood
of spread in Step 4. Information required for an effective risk assessment includes
species-specific biological and ecological information such as invasion history of
closely related species; life-history parameters and lifecycle pattern, mobility, feeding
habits and habitat occupancy in the native environment, including tolerance limits
of temperature, salinity and other physicochemical factors. Also essential are data
related to the proposed introduction, such as the quantity of introduced organisms,
frequency of introduction, handling practices and the aquaculture operation system
FIGURE 1
A typical invasion sequence of exotic species, with the corresponding management
options (prevention, eradication and control/restoration) at different stages
Source: Modified from Kolar and Lodge, 2001; Sakai et al., 2001.
(Risk Assessment and Management Committee, 1996; Kolar and Lodge, 2002; Kelly,
Drake and Lodge, 2007).
RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS IN AQUACULTURE – OVERVIEW AND SOME

EXAMPLES
Ecological risk assessment for introduction of exotic species

Current ecological risk assessment protocols can be classified into either qualitative or
quantitative approaches. Both approaches are principally built upon the skeleton of
the invasion sequence presented in Figure 1. The former approach is based on largely
qualitative categorizations of putative diagnostic characteristics of invasive species,
all available relevant information (see above) and weight-of-evidence judgement by
experts. Detailed guidelines and protocols of this qualitative approach can be found
in the ICES Code of Practice on the Introductions and Transfers of Marine Organisms
(ICES, 2004), the Generic Non-indigenous Aquatic Organisms Risk Analysis Review
Process (Risk Assessment and Management Committee, 1996) and the Weed Risk
Assessment of Australia (Groves, Panetta and Virtue, 2001).
In contrast to the qualitative approach, quantitative methods are more sophisticated,
as they require extra efforts in data mining, and technical inputs from experts on
mathematical modelling and statistical computation (Kolar and Lodge, 2001). Given
the benefit of more published studies on biological invasions over the last 15 years,
more data allowing the development of quantitative methods for risk screening of
exotic organisms have become available, making it possible to identify the major
biological characteristic(s) of invasive species that predict invasion risk. These advanced
computation-intensive approaches are more powerful than the qualitative approach
and provide quite accurate prediction of invasive species with >80 percent accuracy
(Kolar and Lodge, 2001; Keller, Drake and Lodge, 2007).
Despite the relative success of the quantitative approach, quantitative methods
are complex and require highly-skilled personnel for implementation. On the other
hand, qualitative methods are highly flexible and relatively easy to follow, and are
thus more likely to be adopted by regulatory authorities worldwide. Since there is an
urgent need to implement risk analysis in aquaculture, simple and practical methods
are needed so that the process can begin and, it is hoped, prevent biological invasions
from aquaculture activities as soon as possible. Once this generic, qualitative approach
is established, the method could be gradually improved and advanced by incorporating
quantitative elements. Accordingly, this review places more emphasis on the qualitative
approach, whereas the quantitative approach is only briefly described.
Qualitative risk analysis

The method described herein originates from the Generic Non-indigenous Aquatic
Organisms Risk Analysis Review Process (hereafter referred to as the Review Process)
that was developed by the United States Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species (ANS) Task
Force in 1996 (Risk Assessment and Management Committee, 1996). As the Review
Process also provides detailed information on the history and development of the
exotic pest risk assessment, risk analysis philosophy and additional notes regarding the
risk assessment protocols, we have not repeated this material here.
In accordance with common aquaculture practices, slight modifications of the
Review Process have been made in this paper with a view to providing comprehensive,
user-friendly guidelines for risk analysis of invasiveness of exotic species. The objective
is to evaluate the risk of introducing exotic organisms into a new environment via
a standardized process, but it may also provide recommendations for appropriate
mitigation and/or risk management options. Like the conventional ecological assessment
framework (USEPA, 1998), the qualitative risk analysis also comprises:
(i) problem formulation;

(ii) risk analyses (referred to as Pathway Analysis and Organism Risk Assessment
in this paper); and
(iii) risk characterization.
(i) Problem formulation and assessment framework

Biological invasion risk is a sum of the risks incurred in the transportation, introduction,
establishment, spread and impact stages along the sequence of biological invasion
(Figure 1). The qualitative risk analysis should comprise two major components,
namely Pathway Analysis and Organism Risk Assessment (Figure 2; the Review
Process). To initiate the risk assessment process, the regulatory authority should
identify interested parties such as governmental officials, practitioners, representatives
from related non-governmental organizations (NGOs), academics, biological invasion
experts and other related stakeholders who will provide valuable input and comments
on the risk assessment processes (Figure 2; Step 1). Such an initiation step is vital, as
this will improve communication of potential risks among all parties, reduce bias and
make the processes more open and transparent to the general public. Both components
require extensive and comprehensive literature reviews on the pathway-related matters
(e.g. history, ecological risk and mitigation measures) and information on the biology,
ecology and invasion history of the species of concern (Figure 2; Step 2). In addition,
projected information such as the quantity, life stages and exact origin of the organisms
is needed for both pathway and organism analyses. It will be advantageous if the
FIGURE 2
A conceptual framework for the qualitative risk assessment for introduction of exotic
organisms. (*details of the organism risk assessment are presented in Figure 3)
receiving country or region has already created a list of exotic aquatic species (Step 3)
and an archive of their biological and ecological data, as well as invasion history. Such
a database will greatly help to speed up the analysis. Based on all available information,
the corresponding risk of each invasion step (i.e. introduction pathway, establishment
and spread, as well as ecological and economic impacts) is assessed through the
standardized Pathway Analysis and Organism Risk Assessment (Steps 4 and 5) based
on the principle of weight-of-evidence by a group of experts (Menzie et al., 1996).
Subsequently, the overall risk of the intended introduction of the exotic species can be
characterized using a standardized rating scheme (Step 6). The results can be used to
formulate appropriate mitigation measures and improve risk management (Step 7).
(ii) Pathway and organism risk analyses
Pathway analysis
Pathway analysis is largely conducted through collection of relevant information. The
following is a generalized list of information required for the pathway analysis:
• Describe the introduction pathway (intentional vs. unintentional introduction).
• Determine mechanism and history of the pathway.
• Determine the exact origin(s) of organisms associated with the pathway.
• Determine the numbers of organisms and species travelling with the pathway.
• Determine the intended use of the exotic organisms (as animal feeds or culture
organisms for food and/or aquarium trade).
• Review the history of past experiences and previous risk assessments (including
international examples) on the pathway or similar pathways.
• Review past and present mitigation actions related to the pathway.
As mentioned previously, there are two major pathways of introducing exotic
organisms through aquaculture activities: intentional introduction of exotic species as
culture organisms that eventually enter the natural environment (usually via accidental
escape) and unintentional introduction of exotic organisms associated with imported
culture organisms or live foods for aquaculture feed. It is important to evaluate the
likelihood of escape within the intentional introduction pathway, particularly, in
relation to the aquaculture system and facilities. In general, closed-circulation land-
based systems pose relatively lower probability of escape in contrast to open-water
systems, which have very high risks. Current management practices for minimizing
escape of farmed organisms should be carefully reviewed with special reference to
local conditions. Unintentional introductions are more likely associated with bivalve
aquaculture because of the risk from associated “hitchhiker” organisms (see above;
Minchin, 1996). Different handling processes can result in very different risks of
biological invasion. If the organisms have undergone a quarantine procedure (e.g. brine
dip of transfers) and are transported in reduced density, the risk of bringing in exotic
species will be lower (Minchin, 1996). In some cases, traditional methods for packing
shellfish can be problematic. For instance, many exotic species such as the green crab
(Caricinus maenas) and the algae Codium fragile are believed to have been introduced
to North America because they were among seaweeds used to pack shipments of bait
worms (Weigle et al., 2005). In addition, shipment containers usually contain water that
may include juveniles, larvae or eggs of exotic species. If such water is disposed of in
the new aquatic environment, it may give exotic organisms an opportunity to establish.
Proper sterilization of such water (e.g. through boiling) is needed before discharge.
Better codes of practice (e.g. ICES, 2004) should be followed by the aquaculture
industry to control such risks. In addition, a risk assessment that reviews and examines
the current practices of handling and transportation of shellfish is needed to generate
accurate risk predictions. As the unintentional pathway shows a particularly high
potential for introducing exotic organisms, it should trigger an in-depth risk analysis.
TABLE 2
Classification of native and exotic species according to their characteristics. The priority of
concern for each category is also given
Category Organism characteristics Concern
1a A species is exotic and not present in the region or country. Yes
1b An exotic species, which has already been present in the region or country, is Yes
capable of further expansion.
1c An exotic species is currently present in the region or country and has reached Yes
probable limits of its range, but is genetically different enough to warrant
concern and/or able to harbour another exotic pest.
1d An exotic species present in the region or country has reached probable limits No
of its range, and does not show any of the other characteristics of 1c.
2a A native species but is genetically different enough to warrant concern and/or Yes
able to harbour another exotic pest, and/or capable for further expansion.
2b Native species is not exhibiting any of the characteristics of 2a. No
Source: Risk Assessment and Management Committee, 1996.
Creating a list of exotic aquatic organisms of concern

In Step 3 (Figure 2), a list of exotic species of concern can be developed by identifying
the species associated with the pathway, and then classifying them into in one of
the categories listed in Table 2. Subsequent Organism Risk Assessments should
be conducted for any listed species in categories 1a, 1b, 1c or 2a. The Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ (FAO) Database on Introductions of
Aquatic Species (DIAS) includes records of species introduced or transferred from one
country to another and contains additional taxa, such as molluscs and crustaceans and
marine species (http://www.fao.org/fi/website/FISearch.do?dom=introsp). If the exotic
organisms are fish species, the risk assessor may visit and check relevant information
in FishBase (Froese and Pauly, 2007; http://www.fishbase.org), which has a section
dealing with invasive species associated with aquaculture and the aquarium trade
and providing the origin and invasion history of exotic species in different countries.
Furthermore, the Global Invasive Species Database which is managed by the Invasive
Species Specialist Group (ISSG) of the International Union for the Conservation of
Nature (IUCN) Species Survival Commission also provides useful information for the
Organism Risk Assessment, such as a searchable database on invasive aquatic species,
with references and links to relevant websites (www.issg.org/database).
Organism risk analysis

This manual follows the convention of considering any species as invasive that not only
becomes established, but also spreads readily in its new range (Elton, 1958). Invasive
organisms must be able to pass through all the key stages (Steps 1–5 in Figure 1) along
the sequence of successful biological invasion. The Organism Risk Assessment element
in Figure 2 (Step 5) is the most important component of the Review Process used in
evaluating and determining the risk associated with a pathway. The Risk Assessment
Model (i.e. PIES-COM model) that drives the Organism Risk Assessment (Figure 3)
has two major parts – the “probability of establishment” and “consequence of
establishment”, as described in the equations below:
Invasion Risk = {Probability of Establishment} × {Consequence of Establishment} (1)

Invasion Risk = {P × I × E × S} × {C × O × M} (2)
Where
P = Estimated probability of the organism being on, with or in the Pathway
I = Estimated probability of the organism surviving in transit and Introduction
E = Estimated probability of the organism colonizing and Establishing a population
S = Estimated probability of the organism Spreading beyond the colonized area
C = Estimated the Consequence of all possible ecological impacts if established
O = Estimated the Overall perceived impact from social and/or political influences
M = Estimated economic impact (i.e. Money) if established
This Risk Assessment Model contains seven essential elements (i.e. PIES.COM). The
probability of establishment is a product of the probabilities of the pathway associated
with the particular species (P), successful introduction (I), successful establishment (E)
and spread of the species in the new environments (S) (Figure 3). The consequence of
establishment includes the ecological impact potential (C), perceived impact from social
and political points of view (O) and the economic impact potential (M) (Figure 3).
The various elements of the PIES.COM model are portrayed as being independent of
one another for model simplification, and the order of the elements in the model does
not necessarily reflect the order of calculation. Based on the available information and
experts’ judgement on all relevant considerations (Table 3), a risk rating is given to each
element in the model from one of the three levels: Low, Medium or High. As the certainty
of such risk ratings will be influenced considerably by the available information and its
quality and reliability, it is important to record the source of information to support
the risk rating and state the degree of uncertainty that the assessor associated with each
element. The degree of uncertainty can be classified into:
• Very Certain (VC): firm conclusion;
• Reasonably Certain (RC): reasonably convinced;
• Moderately Certain (MC): more certain than not;
• Reasonably Uncertain (RU): reasonably indecisive; or
• Very Uncertain (VU): a guess.
TABLE 3
Characteristics and areas for consideration in the Organism Risk Assessment on the seven key
elements (PIES.COM) in the Risk Model (see Figure 3)
Symbol Element Characteristics and assessment areas
Probability of establishment
P Exotic organisms associated The assessor has to answer whether or not the organisms
with the pathway show a convincing temporal and spatial association with the
pathway.
I Exotic organisms surviving The assessor should examine the organism’s hitchhiking
the transit ability in commerce, ability to survive during transit, stage
of lifecycle during transit, number of individuals expected to
be associated with the pathway or whether it is deliberately
introduced.
E Exotic organisms colonizing, The assessor should investigate whether the organisms will
establishing and maintaining come in contact with an adequate food resource, encounter
a population appreciable abiotic and biotic environmental resistance, and
have the ability to reproduce in the new environment.
S Exotic organisms spreading The assessor should evaluate whether the organisms have
beyond the colonized area ability for natural dispersal, ability to use human activity
for dispersal, ability to readily develop races or strains, and
should estimate the range of probable spread.
Consequence of establishment (CE)1
C Ecological impact The assessor should consider the impact on ecosystem
destabilization, reduction in biodiversity, reduction or
elimination of keystone species, reduction or elimination
of endangered/threatened species, and effects of control
measures.
O Perceived impact These may include aesthetic damage, consumer concerns
and political repercussions.
M Economic impact Consideration aspects include economic importance of the
aquaculture practitioners, damage to natural resources,
effects to subsidiary industries, effects to exports, ad control
costs.
1
Notes: The elements considered under Consequences can also be used to record positive impacts that an exotic
organism might have, for example, its importance as a biological control agent, aquatic pet, sport fish, scientific
research organism or based on its use in aquaculture. The final risk rating will reflect a balance between the cost,
the benefit and the risk of introducing the exotic organisms. When determining the CE score, the three elements
are not treated as equal: C and M are given a higher weighting than O.
FIGURE 3
A schematic diagram illustrating the Organism Risk Assessment with the seven
key elements
Legend: VC – very certain; RV – reasonably certain; MC – moderately certain;

RU – reasonably uncertain; VU – very uncertain)
For elements with certainty at or below MC, it is important to obtain more data as
soon as resources (time, money and efforts) permit. The accuracy of the risk analysis
can be greatly improved by minimizing uncertainty. While recording the source and
details of the information to support the risk analysis, a code of reference should be
assigned for each cited document or information source. The reference codes may
include:
• G: general knowledge, no specific source;
• J: judgement evaluation by experts only; or
• E: extrapolation; information specific to invasive species not available, however
available information on related organisms has been applied.
• (Author, Year): Literature cited.
It is important to stress that the outcome of an Organism Risk Analysis is very likely
ecosystem specific (Kolar and Lodge, 2002). Therefore, the risk assessor must consider
the potential introduction of the organisms with reference to local conditions such as
heterogeneity of aquatic environments, hydrographic parameters, existing biological
communities and climate, etc. The risk assessor may incorporate methodologies such
as geographical information systems (GIS), climate and ecological models, decision-
making software, expert systems and graphical displays of uncertainty in order to
increase the precision of one or more elements in the Organism Risk Assessment Risk
(Assessment and Management Committee, 1996).
Biological traits of exotic organisms can be potential predictors indicating whether
or not they will be invasive. Although biological traits vary among different stages
of invasion (Figure 1) and are likely taxonomic specific, some rules-of-thumb about
criteria for successful exotic invaders can be generalized from peer-reviewed literature
and are listed below. They may be used to inform the risk assessment, to prioritize
management efforts and to further develop quantitative risk assessment models.
a) Having high fecundity: Keller, Drake and Lodge (2007) showed that fecundity of
exotic molluscs is positively related to their invasiveness, and thus fecundity can be
used as one of the key criteria to screen their likelihood of becoming invasive species.
Females of any molluscan species with an annual per-female output exceeding 162
offspring are likely to become invasive. Based on this criterion, any broadcast
spawner with high fecundity would pose a high risk of biological invasion. For
example, apple snails (Ampullariidae: Pomacea canaliculata) have a minimum clutch
size of ~100 eggs and are able to lay many clutches annually (Keller, Drake and
Lodge, 2007); these highly invasive snails have spread across much of tropical East
Asia since their introduction from South America (Cowie 2004).
b) Fast-growing in the establishment stage: Kolar and Lodge (2002) demonstrated that
successful fishes in the establishment stage (Figure 1, Step 3) often grow faster than
non-invasive species.
c) Slow-growing in the spreading stage: Fishes that spread quickly exhibit slower
relative individual growth rates than those which spread slowly (Kolar and Lodge,
2002).
d) Tolerant of wide ranges of temperature and salinity: Successful fishes in the both
establishment and spreading stages (Steps 3–4) are able to tolerate wider ranges
of temperature and salinity than are fishes that fail to invade (Kolar and Lodge,
2002).
e) Predatory invaders that eat a range of prey: Invasive predatory species are usually
non-specialists with respect to prey preferences and eat a wide range of prey types
(Kolar and Lodge, 2002).
f) Smaller and more eggs: Invasive fishes generally have smaller eggs and more of them
than non-invasive fishes (Kolar and Lodge, 2002; Keller, Drake and Lodge, 2007).
g) With a history of invasion: It is reasonable to assume that the probability of
organism invasiveness increases if the species has a history of invasion (Kolar and
Lodge, 2001, 2002).
h) Exotic taxa distantly related to native species: Strauss, Webb and Salamin (2006)
studied all grass species in California and discovered that highly invasive grass
species are, on average, significantly less related to native grasses than are introduced
but non-invasive grasses. This hypothesis has yet to be tested for aquatic organisms,
but it is noteworthy that the spread of tilapias in Asia is associated with a virtual
lack of native cichlids (Sri Lanka, with two native cichlids, is the exception).
i) High number of individuals released and many release events: The probability of
establishment of exotic species increases with the number of individuals released
and the number of release events (Kolar and Lodge, 2001).
Examination of the attributes of an exotic aquatic molluscan species within its native
home range before introduction can provide some indication whether it will breed
and recruit within the new environment (Minchin, 1996). Studies on the morphology
and behaviour of the intended introduction in relation to those eco-morphologically
similar native species may greatly aid in identifying the likely effects of competition
before an introduction takes place (Minchin, 1996). Studies of chromosome numbers
can provide some indication of whether hybridization is possible between native and
introduced species (Minchin, 1996).
(iii) Risk characterization
Determination of the organism risk potential

The Organism Risk Potential (ORP) is generated from the probability of establishment
(PE) and the consequence of establishment (CE): i.e. the risk ratings and impact ratings
of the elements in Table 3. The PE is assigned the value of the element (among P, I.
E and S) with the lowest risk rating; some examples are shown in Table 4. Such a
conservative estimate of the probability of establishment is justified because each of

four elements must be present for the organism to become established, and the degree
of biological uncertainty for success at each step is often high (Risk Assessment and
Management Committee, 1996). For determining the CE score, the three elements (C,
O and M) are not treated as equal and the Economic Impact and Ecological Impact
are given a higher weighting than the Perceived Impact. The key for obtaining correct
CE scores under different impact rating combinations of the three elements is shown
in Table 5. It is important to note that the element M (economic impact) can also be
positive impacts. An exotic organism might have its importance as a protein source for
human consumption, a biological control agent, an aquatic pet, a sport fish and/or a
scientific research organism. Tilapias (e.g. Oreochromis mossambicus and O. niloticus)
are a good example to illustrate this point. Although exotic tilapias have been regarded
as invasive fish species in many parts of the world (Canonico et al., 2005), they can have
beneficial effects on human livelihoods in tropical Asia (De Silva et al., 2004) where
they are an essential protein source; this has given rise to their nickname of “aquatic
chicken” in Sir Lanka and Indonesia (De Silva et al., 2004, 2006). Obviously, there is
a disparity in attitudes toward management of exotic species in tropical Asia, where
maintenance of human livelihoods is a dominant consideration, and in other parts of
the world (e.g. North America, Australia), where the beneficial effects of exotic species
are of lesser concern and more emphasis is placed upon the conservation of native
biodiversity (for further discussion, see Dudgeon and Smith 2006). It is therefore
anticipated that different countries will give different rating to Perceived (O) and
Economic (M) Impacts based on their own socioeconomic viewpoints. The final risk-
rating for CE will reflect a balance between the costs, benefits and risks of introducing
exotic organisms.
After calculation of PE and CE, all seven risk element estimates (P, I, E, S, C, O
and M) can be combined into an ORP rating that represents the overall risk of the
organisms being assessed. This ORP rating can be determined using the key shown
in Table 6. The determination of ORP generally favours the environmental protection
(following the precautionary principle), as a higher rating is given to borderline cases
TABLE 4
Examples for derivation of the score for the probability of establishment (PE)
Pathway Introduction Establishment Spread
Scenario 1
Risk Rating High Low Medium Medium
PE Score = Low
Scenario 2
Risk Rating Medium High High Medium
PE Score = Medium
Scenario 3
Risk Rating High High Medium High
PE Score = Medium
TABLE 5
Key for determination of the final score of the Consequence of Establishment (CE)
Scenario Ecological Economic Perceived CE Score
1 H L,M,H L,M,H H
2 L,M,H H L,M,H H
3 M M L,M,H M
4 M L L,M,H M
5 L M L,M,H M
6 L L M,H M
7 L L L L
Legend: Impact rating described as H – high; M – medium; L - low
(cases 2, 4, 6 and 8 in Table 6). This approach is needed to help counteract the high
degree of uncertainty usually associated with biological situations (Risk Assessment
and Management Committee, 1996).
Determination of the pathway risk potential

The overall pathway risk is a sum of pathway-associated risks along the total invasion
sequence. The seven risk element ratings of ORP are employed to estimate the
combined risk or Pathway Risk Potential (PRP). In practice, results of the rating
distribution of the seven elements (e.g. 1 High, 3 Medium and 3 Low) for deriving the
ORP are used to determine the final risk rating of the PRP as shown in Table 7. Thus,
the PRP generally reflects the highest ranking ORP.
An example of the data sheet format for the Organism Risk Assessment, with step-
by-step procedures, is given in Annex 2.
Risk characterization based on ORP and PRP ratings

Once the final rating(s) of ORP and/or PRP have been estimated, the risk characterization
is decided following the definition of ratings given in Table 8.
In these risk-characterization procedures, the selection of low, medium and high
ratings throughout various levels should mainly be driven by available information
TABLE 6
Key for determination of the final rating of Organism Risk Potential (ORP)
Case Probability of establishment Consequence of establishment OPR rating
1 High High = High
2 Medium High = High
3 Low High = Medium
4 High Medium = High
5 Medium Medium = Medium
6 Low Medium = Medium
7 High Low = Medium
8 Medium Low = Medium
9 Low Low = Low
TABLE 7
Key for determination of the Pathway Risk Potential (PRP) based on the rating distribution of
the seven elements used for deriving the Organism Risk Potential (ORP)
Characteristics of the rating distribution of PRP rating
the seven elements used for deriving the ORP
1 or more scored with High rating(s) out of the seven High
51 or more scored with Medium rating(s) out of the seven High
1–51 scored with Medium rating(s) out of the seven Medium
All scored with Low ratings Low
1
Note: The number 5 used in this table is arbitrary. The selection of value 4 or 5 is possible when the number of
medium-risk organisms reaches a level at which the total risk of the pathway becomes high.
TABLE 8
Risk characterizations based on the final rating of ORP or PRP
Rating of ORP or PRP Definition Actions
Low Acceptable risk: organism(s) of • Introduction may be permitted
little concern • No mitigation is required
Medium Unacceptable: organism(s) of • Introduction should be banned or should
moderate concern be controlled via risk management
• Mitigation is required
High Unacceptable: organism(s) of • Introduction should be banned
high concern • Prevention rather than mitigation is
mandated, and control measures should
be considered.
such as biological statements under each element. As the low, medium and high ratings
of the individual elements cannot be defined or measured, they remain judgemental in
nature. Indeed, the Risk Assessment and Management Committee (1996) has stressed
that "it is important to understand that the strength of the Review Process is not in the
element-rating but in the detailed biological and other relevant information statements
that motivates them". The final estimate of ORP or PRP only provides a summary of
the entire risk assessment and some guidance for the decisions about whether or not
an exotic species should be introduced, or whether control measures should be in place
for introductions that are allowed or whether measures should take place to mitigate
the effects of exotic species that have already become established (i.e. retrospective risk
assessment). However, the final decision made by the risk assessors should be based on
a holistic approach coupled with the weight-of-evidence assessment.
Quantitative risk analysis

Quantitative risk methods have been developed by Kolar and Lodge (2002) to quantify
and predict the ecological risk of exotic freshwater fishes becoming invasive if they
are introduced to North America. The methods are based on multivariate statistical
methods including discriminant function analysis (DFA) and categorical and regression
tree analysis (CART). Thirteen life-history characteristics, five habitat requirements
and six aspects of invasion history and human use were used in the risk assessment
model. DFA revealed the key features of fish species that were able to pass through
the two main steps of the invasion process (establishment and spread; Figure 1): (1)
successfully established fishes were fast growing, with a wide tolerance of salinity and
temperature and a history of invasion; (2) quickly spreading fish species had a relatively
slower growth rate and were tolerant of a wide temperature range and (3) successful
invasive fishes have smaller eggs and wider tolerance for salinity and temperature. DFA
allowed identification of the failed and successful fish species in each invasion stage
with >80 percent accuracy (Kolar and Lodge, 2002).
CART is a model-based statistical technique involving model construction based
on prior knowledge. Kolar and Lodge (2002) constructed their CART model for
predicting invasive fishes with the critical values of minimum temperature threshold,
FIGURE 4
Schematic diagram showing the CART model developed by Kolar and Lodge (2002).
Invasion filters represent sequential stages of the invasion process through which
a species must successfully pass if it is to pose and invasion risk to the new aquatic
environment. The critical value for each filter (e.g. diet breadth: >4.5 prey taxa) is
also shown
dietary breadth and two measures of relative growth using information from literature
and the results from their DFA analyses. The resulting CART model (Figure 4)
assumed that established predatory fishes must growth faster (i.e. add >68.5 percent
of initial body weight) within the first two years of introduction, have a wide dietary
breadth (eat >4.5 prey taxa) and tolerate a minimum winter temperature of 5.5 °C
(as prevails in the Great Lakes area) (Figure 4). For the spreading stage, the model
assumes that rapidly spreading fishes have a slightly narrower diet breadth (<1.5 prey
taxa) than in the establishment phase and a somewhat slower growth rate (add >26.5
percent of initial body weight). This CART model could correctly identify the species
invasiveness for 43 out of 45 species inspected (Kolar and Lodge, 2002), which is
very encouraging. Although this quantitative method requires more data input and
advanced statistical analyses, it not only identifies potentially invasive species but also
reveals essential biological traits that have significant correlations with invasiveness
and may be useful criteria for screening risk. Like the qualitative analysis, uncertainties
also exist in these quantitative methods (e.g. 5–20 percent error in the prediction;
Kolar and Lodge, 2002), and therefore the results should be carefully evaluated with
other available relevant information with respect to the key risk assessment elements
described in the qualitative risk assessment (i.e. P, I, E, S, C, O and M).
Given the deterministic power of this quantitative method, many researchers have
adopted or modified the approach of Kolar and Lodge (2002) in risk assessment for
exotic aquatic organisms over the past few years (e.g. Rixon et al., 2005; Jeschke and
Strayer, 2005; Keller, Drake and Lodge, 2007; Miller et al., 2007). This risk assessment
model can be even modified to account for the various life stages of exotic species
under different climate scenarios. For example, Colnar and Landis (2007) have recently
developed a risk assessment model for evaluation of invasiveness of various life stages
(e.g. planktonic larval stages) of the introduced European green crab (Carcinus maenas)
in North America in relation to habitat suitability and climate. Their model suggested
that the risk of invasion impacts from C. maenas is substantially higher when El Nino-
driven current dispersal is taking place.
Since 2002, at least ten articles using quantitative method in organism risk assessment
for aquatic biological invasion have been published in peer-reviewed journals
(Annex 3). Six of them are studies of fishes, two on molluscs, one on a crab species and
one on marine fouling organisms. The frequency of studies of fishes probably indicates
the generally greater availability of biological data. It also indirectly reflects the fact
that these quantitative methods can be data limited. Increased data availability will
certainly improve the predictive ability of the quantitative approach to organism risk
assessments, as well as enhancing its popularity in management of biological invasion
in the future. Note, however, that much of the data required for successful prediction
is of the type generated by fundamental descriptive studies of growth and population
dynamics, but investigations of this type are currently rather unfashionable and may be
constrained by funding. Ultimately it may be the availability of such information, and
not the complexity of the statistical models or the training required to use them, that
will restrict the application of quantitative risk assessment approaches to predicting
species invasiveness.
“All models are wrong, but some are useful” - a famous quote of George Box
seems also correct with respect to the risk assessment models described above. In
an important recent study, Ricciardi and Cohen (2007) have tested the relationship
between the invasiveness of introduced species and their impacts on native biodiversity.
They found no correlations between these variables for introduced plants, mammals,
fishes, invertebrates, amphibians or reptiles. The results suggest that the mechanisms of
invasion and impact are not strongly linked, and thus the probability of establishment
and spread are not directly reflected by the impact of invasion. This may be good
news, since it implies that highly invasive species do not necessarily have the strongest
impacts. At present, quantitative methodologies seldom incorporate the impact analysis

component in their models, and thereby omit some crucial elements (ecological,
economic and perceived impacts) of risk prediction, making them less accurate.
Fortunately, the qualitative risk assessment method (i.e. PIES.COM model mentioned
above) not only examines the risk of organism invasiveness, but also explicitly considers
the ecological, economic and perceived impacts resulted from biological invasion. Both
quantitative and qualitative methods are, therefore, complimentary leading to a more
holistic and accurate risk analysis.
RISK MANAGEMENT IN AQUACULTURE
Recommendations for ecological (pest) risk management

Management objectives inevitably depend on the stage of the biological invasion,
whether at the prevention (i.e. risk assessment and education), eradication, or control
and restoration stages (Figure 1). More attention should be paid to the risk prevention,
to minimize the chances of an introduction or the necessity for eradication or control
measures. Eradication is often impossible when the exotic organisms have already
established (Kolar and Lodge, 2001), but the probability of establishment can be
minimized if the recommendations made below are adopted.
1. Mandatory risk assessment. There is an urgent need to make Organism Risk
Assessment a legally binding process in aquaculture industries, especially in
Asia where >90 percent of the world’s total annual aquaculture tonnage is
produced (FAO, 2004). If this is not possible, regulatory authorities such as local
governments and FAO should allocate more effort to educating consumers and
aquaculture industries so that they understand the ecological and economic impacts
of introducing invasive organisms, with the hope that this education will induce the
industry to voluntarily follow the best code of practices (e.g. ICES, 2004).
2. Database of invasive aquatic organisms. The development of both global and
regional databases of exotic species would greatly help management of introduced
organisms (Michin, 1996; Casal, 2006). For instance, Bower et al. (1994) have
reviewed the pests, parasites and pathogens of molluscs and listed a total of 45
species infecting oysters, 24 in clams and cockles, 18 in scallops, 17 in mussels
and 4 in abalones. Such a list can provide an initial basis for the management of
any introduction and transfer of marine molluscs. Once screening for known
exotic species in consignments has been implemented, appropriate control/
mitigation measures can then be applied to minimize the chance of introducing
nuisance species (Minchin 1996). At present, some international organizations
have databases (e.g. FAO, IUCN and World Fish Centre) that provide generic
information on invasive aquatic species. However, regional data and information
on exotic species and their controls are usually limited and scattered in different
peer-reviewed journals and local agency/project reports (Casal, 2006). It is often
not an easy task for risk assessors to collate all relevant information for a particular
organism. It has been suggested that an international database should be created
through the use of Internet technology, sharing of databases or having a gateway or
portal to which all introduced and invasive organisms-related databases link (Casal,
2006). The FishBase information system offers a good model.
3. Implementation of Codes of Practice. Management practices designed to prevent
releases of exotic organisms should be adopted in aquaculture industries (Weigle
et al., 2005). A number of guidelines are available for management of introduction
and transfer of aquatic organisms. Of these, the ICES Code of practice on the
introductions and transfers of marine organisms 2004 is the most relevant to
aquaculture operations. The regulatory authorities should make this an essential
code of practice with which operators must abide and make efforts to promote its
use if legislation is not possible.
4. Documentation of the movement of live aquatic organisms. It is essential to
implement a mandatory reporting system documenting the details of any import
and transportation of exotic organisms. More stringent requirements for reporting
live species imports should be implemented (Weigle et al., 2005), as such reporting
can indicate the magnitude of international transport of organisms and the existing
and/or potential threat faced by ecosystems due to species invasiveness (Casal,
2006).
5. Mandatory reporting system for escape. A mandatory reporting system for escapes
will be vital for assessing the risk of introduction stage since, if escapes are not
reported, the apparent risks of introduction cannot be estimated accurately. If the
escape rates are high (i.e. higher than the accepted threshold), appropriate control
measures should be implemented to rectify the problem. Accidental or episodic
events of escape (e.g. due to bad weather or nets breaking) must be immediately
reported to the risk management authority, which can then respond to the escape
as quickly as possible through a mandated contingency plan involving capture or
destruction of the escapees. Currently, few regions have implemented an escape-
reporting system, and the requirement for reporting varies significantly among
these regions (Annex 4; Naylor et al., 2005). Significantly, there are no such
requirements in Asia where most of the world’s aquaculture takes place. Iceland,
for example, has the strongest penalties (including the loss of aquaculture licenses)
for failure to comply with escape-related regulations. In contrast, merely symbolic
fines for major escape-events are levied in British Columbia, Canada, if the events
are not reported promptly (Naylor et al., 2005). Where possible, aquaculturists
should keep a good record of any escape events (whether chronic “leakage” or
episodic), with information such as the number, species, weather and date, and
should inform the authorities as soon as possible after a major event.
6. Effective quarantine and wastewater sterilization. In general, companies that
handle live shellfish require more scrutiny than those handling fresh finfish
(Weigle et al., 2005; Minchin, 1996), as many exotic organisms harboured by the
shellfish may enter the new environment unintentionally. To reduce such risks, the
organisms should be put through a quarantine procedure, while wastewater from
shipping containers should be sterilized prior to discharge (Minchin, 1996; ICES,
2004).
7. Improvement of technology to reduce escape risk. Containment in farms should
be improved so as to minimize the numbers of escapees (e.g. use of stronger net
materials, tauter nets to deter seals; Naylor et al., 2005). Emergency recovery
procedures are also essential (see 5) as a back-up measure in the case of containment
failure (Youngson et al., 2001).
8. Development of artisanal fisheries on escaped exotic species. The chance of escaped
populations of exotic organisms impacting native species may be reduced by
allowing local artisanal fishing, as this can offer a way to control the population
size of exotics if the fishing methods can be appropriated targeted (Soto, Jara and
Moreno, 2001).
Recently, leading scientists in the field of biological invasion have put forward
some important recommendations for improving the policy and management of
biological invasions in the United States (Box 1; Lodge et al., 2006). Many of these
recommendations can also be applied in risk management for global aquaculture
industries.
After completion of a risk assessment for an exotic species, risk managers are
responsible for determining appropriate management actions. These should include
both policy and operational measures. The Risk Assessment and Management
Committee (1996) has suggested the key elements for risk management and operational
requirements during and after the risk assessment (see Box 2). To evaluate the
effectiveness of the implementation of risk management measures, the ecological risk
assessments should be repeated on a regular basis to ensure that the risk of biological
invasion remains low. Such repetition constitutes a form of sensitivity analysis to the
initial risk assessment.
ECOLOGICAL (PEST) RISK COMMUNICATION

It is essential that the draft and final risk assessment reports, and especially those
generated from the qualitative approach, be reviewed by external experts who are not
associated with the outcome of the assessment or with the risk assessors. The reviewers
should be able to assess the quality of research and identify any problems, bias or
misjudgement that may have arisen.
This risk communication process is extremely important for risk issues of high
visibility in society. All documentations of the risk assessment should be made available
BOX 1
Biological invasions: recommendations for United States policy and
management
Facts:
Invasions by harmful non-native increasing in number and area affected. The damages to
ecosystems, economic activity and human welfare are accumulating. Without improved
strategies based on recent scientific advances and increased investments to counter
invasions, harm from invasive species is likely to accelerate.
Way forwards:
The Government is required to increase the effectiveness of prevention of invasions,
detect and respond quickly to new potentially harmful invasions, control and slow the
spread of existing invasions, and provide a national centre to ensure that these efforts are
coordinated and cost effective.
Recommended actions:
(1) Use new information and practices to better manage commercial and other
pathways to reduce the transport and release of potentially harmful species;
(2) Adopt more quantitative procedures for risk analysis and apply them to every
species proposed for importation into the country;
(3) Use new cost-effective diagnostic technologies to increase active surveillance and
sharing of information about invasive species so that responses to new invasions
can be more rapid and effective;
(4) Create new legal authority and provide emergency funding to support rapid
responses to emerging invasions;
(5) Provide funding and incentives for cost-effective programmes to slow the spread
of existing invasive species in order to protect still uninvaded ecosystems, social
and industrial infrastructure and human welfare; and
(6) Establish a National Centre for Invasive Species Management to coordinate
and lead improvements in federal, state and international policies on invasive
species.
Source: Lodge et al., 2006.

BOX 2
Elements of risk management and operational requirements
A. Elements to consider in risk management policy:

• Risk assessments (including uncertainty and quality of data)
• Available mitigation safeguards (i.e. permits, industry standards,
prohibition, inspection)
• Resource limitations (i.e. money, time, locating qualified experts,
information needed)
• Public perceptions and perceived damage
• Social and political consequences
• Benefits and costs should be addressed in the analysis
B. Risk management operational steps:

a. Maintain communication and input from interested parties: Participation
of interested parties should be actively solicited as early as possible. All
interested parties should be carefully identified because adding additional
interested parties late in the assessment or management process can result
in revisiting issues already examined and thought to have been brought to
closure. They should be periodically brought up-to-date on relevant issues.
b. Maintain open communication between risk managers and risk assessors:
Continuous open communication between the risk managers and the risk
assessors is important throughout the writing of the risk assessment report.
This is necessary to ensure that the assessment will be policy relevant when
completed. Risk managers should be able to provide detailed questions about
the issues that they will need to address to the risk assessors before the risk
assessment is started. This will allow the assessors to focus the scientific
information relevant to the questions or issues that the risk managers will
need to address.
c. Match the available mitigation options with the identified risks: Matching
the available mitigation options with the identified risks can sometimes be
done by creating a mitigation plan for the organisms, or group of organisms.
Where a specific organism or group of organism requires a specific mitigation
process (e.g. brine dip of transfers for oysters), the efficacy for control should
be recorded. Using this process it will become apparent which mitigation(s)
would be needed to reduce the risk to an acceptable level.
d. Develop an achievable operational approach: Each new operational decision
must consider a number of management, agency and biological factors that
are unique to any specific organism or pathway. At an operational risk
management level, each essential component in the operational sequence
(risk assessment, current standard and policy, effective mitigation, feasibility
and monitoring) should be examined before approval of the importation
or release or action against an exotic organism or pathway is taken. These
include the risk assessment, the development of conditions for entry to
meet current industry or regulatory standards, effective mitigation of any
identified potential exotic aquatic organisms, feasibility of achieving the
mitigation requirements and finally, a system of monitoring to ensure that
all mitigation requirements are maintained.

BOX 3
Risk communication consideration for risk managers
• Plan carefully and evaluate the success of your communication efforts.

• Coordinate and collaborate with other credible sources.
• Accept and involve the public as a legitimate partner.
• Listen to the public’s specific concerns.
• Be honest, frank and open.
• Speak clearly and with compassion.
• Meet the needs of the media.
Source: USEPA, 1995
to the stakeholders (or interested parties), especially the aquaculture practitioners. The
risk manager should allow feedback from the stakeholders and independent reviewers
and respond to any comments. Original sources of supporting information in the risk
assessment should be adequately documented for reviewers and stakeholders, and this
may help to further identify information gaps (Risk Assessment and Management
Committee, 1996). If there is disagreement on the results of a risk assessment (e.g.
ratings in one or more of seven risk assessment elements) by the reviewers (or
stakeholders), the reviewer or opponent party can point to the data used in determining
that specific element-rating and show what information is missing, misleading or in
need of further explanation. The Risk Assessment and Management Committee (1996)
has stressed that focusing on information can help resolve disagreements and minimize
the chances of preconceived outcome diluting the quality of the element-rating by the
reviewers or interested parties.
To achieve effective and positive risk communication, the risk managers should
clearly describe the sources and causes of the risks and potential impacts related to the
proposed introduction. The degree of certainty in the risk assessment decision and the
options for reducing the risks are also important and should be explained to interested
parties (USEPA, 1995). Other important considerations for risk communication
are shown in Box 3. In some cases, additional follow-up actions will be needed to
address the comments made by the reviewers and/or stakeholders. Depending on the
importance of the assessment, uncertainty in the risk assessment results and available
resources (e.g. money and time), it may be worthwhile to conduct an additional
iteration of the risk assessment with a view to refining the results and supporting a final
management decision (USEPA, 1998).
CONCLUSIONS
Given the ever-increasing global demand for and production of aquaculture products
and the globalization of aquaculture industries, it is anticipated that imports of live
aquatic organisms and thus the potential for introduction of exotic organisms will
increase in the near future. Aquaculture-associated activities are important pathways
for exotic introductions, some of which become invasive and nuisance species with
significant ecological impacts and economic losses. Although some recent reviews
indicated that the majority of introduced exotic species has done little ecological
harm to native aquatic biodiversity (Escapa et al., 2004; De Silva et al., 2006; Soto
et al., 2007; FAO Database on Introductions of Aquatic Species), ecological risks
from biological invasions as have occurred in Lake Victoria and Donghu Lake should
not be ignored (Chen, 1989; Reinthal and King, 1997). Anthropogenically driven
deterioration of environmental conditions in inland waters, drainage basins and coastal
marine environments can make the conditions less congenial to native species and
consequently favour exotic, robust species (De Silva et al., 2006). Thus risk assessors
should take both ongoing and projected environmental changes and the ecological risk
of introducing exotic species into account.
The implementation of proper risk assessment schemes for screening the potential
invasiveness of aquatic organisms before introduction will certainly reduce the risk
of importing invasive species and thereby minimize ecological and economic impacts.
The qualitative assessment methods described in this paper, which are easy to use and
do not require large amounts of resources or expertise, can be readily adopted in Asia,
which is the global centre of aquaculture production. The assessment method can be
further developed and enhanced with advanced quantitative methods, if more relevant
biological information on the taxonomic group of concern is available. As data and
information availability has a huge influence on the quality and confidence of the
risk assessment, it is essential to put more effort and funding into in basic research
on the life histories, population dynamics and ecology of aquaculture organisms, and
establish better regional and international biological invasion information systems
for these species. Finally but most importantly, concerted efforts should be made to
educate consumers and industries about the ecological risk and economic impacts
of introducing invasive organisms, and to establish mandatory application of legally
binding species-specific risk assessments and risk management that will reduce the
risks of biological invasion through aquaculture activities.
FUTURE CHALLENGES
With the growth of aquaculture industries, many farmers are attempting to culture new
and profitable species. Among these new developments, many invertebrate species are
now being introduced into aquaculture systems. The new culture organisms include
various species of sea cucumbers, sea urchins and sea squirts. These new species may
also be transported internationally with consequent risks of biological invasion. This
certainly presents a real challenge to the current risk assessment and management
practices that mainly deal with fishes, crustaceans and molluscs. More basic biological
and ecological studies on these new farming species in relation to the predicted invasive
sequence are needed.
Making risk assessment of biological invasion a legally binding procedure in
aquaculture industries, especially in Asian countries, will remain the biggest and
most difficult challenge. If this cannot be achieved, it is unlikely that voluntary risk
assessment and management would be effective in preventing or controlling biological
invasions. More efforts should be put into the development of economic instruments
to give incentives to the aquaculture industry to follow the relevant codes of practice
and risk assessment protocols.
Although better international network and surveillance systems for prevention and
control of invasive aquatic organisms through aquaculture are needed, such tasks will
require resources, adequate funding and coordination among countries in collating
and updating relevant information and databases. These tasks are perhaps the greatest
challenges.
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ANNEX 1
A list of examples of current international and regional treaties and agreements (obligatory and voluntary)
for protection against invasive aquatic species1
Instrument/institution Relevant provisions/decisions/resolutions
Convention on Biological Diversity (Nairobi, 1992) Article 8(h). Parties to “prevent the introduction of, control or
http://www.biodiv.org eradicate those alien species which threaten ecosystems, habitats
or species”.
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea Article 196. States to take all measures necessary to prevent,
(Montego Bay, 1982) http://www.un.org/Depts/los/ reduce and control the intentional or accidental introduction
index.htm of species, alien or new, to a particular part of the marine
environment, which may cause significant and harmful changes.
The Convention on Wetlands of International COP7-Resolution VII.14 on Invasive Species and Wetlands
Importance especially as Waterfowl Habitat (Ramsar,
1971) http://www.ramsar.org
Convention on Migratory Species of Wild Animals Range State Parties of Endangered Migratory Species (Annex 1) to
(Bonn, 1979) prevent, reduce or control factors that are endangering or likely
http://www.cms.int/ to further endanger the species, including exotic species. (Article
III (4)(c)). Agreements for Annex II Migratory Species to provide
for strict control of the introduction of, or control of already
introduced exotic species detrimental to the migratory species
(Article V (5)(e)).
Convention on the Law of Non-navigational Uses of Watercourse States shall take all necessary measures to prevent
International Watercourses (New York, 1997) the introduction of species, alien or new, into an international
http://www.un.org/ watercourse. (Article 22).
International Plant Protection Convention (Rome, Creates an international regime to prevent spread and
1951, as amended in 1997) introduction of plants and plant products through the use of
https://www.ippc.int/IPP/En/default.jsp sanitary and phytosanitary measures by Contracting Parties. Parties
establish national plant protection organizations and agree to
cooperate on information exchange and on the development
of International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures. Regional
agreements for Europe and the Mediterranean, the Asia-Pacific,
Near East, Pacific, Caribbean, North America, South America and
Africa.
Plant Protection Agreement for the Asia and Pacific Contracting governments to prevent the introduction into and
Region (Rome, 1956) spread within the South East Asia and Pacific Region of plant
https://www.ippc.int/IPP/En/default.jsp diseases and pests. A supplementary agreement under Article III of
the IPPC.
IUCN-Guidelines for the Prevention of Biodiversity Guidelines designed to increase awareness and understanding of
Loss Caused by Invasive Alien Species (2000) http:// the impact of alien species. Provides guidance for the prevention
www.iucn.org/ of introduction, re-introduction, and control and eradication of
invasive alien species.
Guidelines for the Control and Management of Provides guidance and strategies to minimize the risk of unwanted
ships’ Ballast Water to Minimize the Transfer organisms and pathogens from ballast water and sediment
of Harmful Aquatic Organisms and Pathogens. discharge. Revokes the “Guidelines for Preventing the Introduction
(Resolution A.868 (29)1997, International Maritime of Unwanted Organisms and Pathogens from Ships’ Ballast Water
Organisation) and Sediment Discharges” (IMO Resolution A. 774 (18) 1991).
http://www.imo.org
Agenda 21-United Nations Conference on Calls for increasing protection of forests from disease and
Environment and Development (Rio, 1992) uncontrolled introduction of exotic plant and animal species
http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/documents/agenda21/ (11.14); acknowledgement that inappropriate introduction of
index.htm foreign plants and animals has contributed to biodiversity loss
(15.3); appropriate rules on ballast water discharge to prevent
spread of non-indigenous organisms. 17.30(vi); controlling noxious
aquatic species that may destroy other aquatic species (chap.
18-40(e)(iv)).
Code of Practice on the Introductions and Transfers Recommends practices and procedures to diminish risks of
of Marine Organisms (ICES/EIFAC 2004) http://www. detrimental effects from marine organism introduction and
ices.dk/reports/general/2004/ICESCOP2004.pdf transfer, including those genetically modified. Requires ICES
members to submit a prospectus to regulators, including a
detailed analysis of potential environmental impacts to the aquatic
ecosystem.
Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (FAO 1995) Encourages legal and administrative frameworks to facilitate
http://www.fao.org/fi/agreem/codecond/ficonde.asp responsible aquaculture. Including pre-introduction discussion
with neighbouring states when non-indigenous stocks are to be
introduced into transboundary aquatic ecosystems. Harmful effects
of non-indigenous and genetically altered stocks to be minimized
especially where significant potential exists for spread into other
states or country of origin. Adverse genetic and disease effects to
wild stock from genetic improvement and non-indigenous species
to be minimized.
ANNEX 1 (continued)
Instrument/institution Relevant provisions/decisions/resolutions
Code of Conduct for the Import and Release of Exotic Aims to facilitate the safe import, export and release of such
Biological Control Agents (FAO 1995) agents by introducing procedures of an internationally acceptable
http://www.fao.org level for all public and private entities involved, particularly where
national legislation to regulate their use does not exist or is
inadequate. Outlines specific responsibilities for authorities of an
exporting country, who should ensure that relevant regulations of
the importing country are followed in exports of biological control
agents.
Preventing the Introduction of Invasive Alien Species. Urges all Contracting States to use their civil aviation authorities
Resolution A-32-9, International Civil Aviation to assist in reducing the risk of introducing, through civil air
Organisation (ICAO) (1998) transportation, potentially invasive species to areas outside their
http://www.icao.int/ natural range. Requests the ICAO Council to work with other
United Nations organizations to identify approaches that the ICAO
might take in assisting to reduce the risk of introducing potential
invasive species.
Global Programme of Action for the Protection of Introduction of alien species acknowledged as having serious
the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities effects upon ecosystem integrity.
(UNEP 1995)
http://www.gpa.unep.org/
1
Source: http://www.chinabiodiversity.com/etf/appendix3-en.htm
ANNEX 2
Organism risk assessment form
(Modified from the generic non-indigenous aquatic organisms risk analysis review
process, report to the aquatic nuisance species tasks force 1996)
File No.:
Date:
Organism (Scientific and common names):
Analyst(s):
Pathway:
Origin of the Organism:
1. Literature review and background information (summary of life history such

as growth rate, egg size, diet breadth, reproduction strategy etc., distribution,
tolerable rages of temperature and salinity, and invasion history if any; include
references):
2. Pathway Information (include references):
3. Rating elements for the PIES.COM model: Rate statements as L: Low, M: Medium,
or H: High. Place specific biological information in descending order of risk with
reference(s) under each element that relates to your estimation of probability
or impact. Cite the literature (i.e. author, year) or use the reference codes of
the biological statement (G: General knowledge, J: Judgment evaluation and E:
Extrapolation) where appropriate and the uncertainty codes (VC: Very certain,
RC: Reasonably certain, MC: Moderately certain, RU: Reasonably uncertain and
VC: Very uncertain) after each element rating.
3.1. Probability of Establishment
Risk Element Element Rating Uncertainty Code Reference Codes

(L, M, H) (VC, RC, MC, RU, VU)
Pathway risk
Introduction risk
Establishment risk
Spreading risk
3.2. Consequence of Establishment
Impact Element Element Rating Uncertainty Code Reference Codes

(L, M, H) (VC, RC, MC, RU, VU)
Ecological impact
Perceived impact
Economic impact
4. Risk Characterization
4.1. Determination of a combined rating for the probability of establishment (PE) by

taking the lowest rating among the four elements.
Pathway Introduction Establishment Spreading
Risk Rating
(L, M, H)
PE Score (L, M, H) =
4.2. Determination of a combined rating for the probability of the consequence of

establishment (CE Score) by matching one of the listed scenarios with the current
study.
Scenario Ecological Economic Perceived CE Score

Impact Rating for
this study
(L, M, H)
1 H L,M,H L,M,H H
2 L,M,H H L,M,H H
3 M M L,M,H M
4 M L L,M,H M
5 L M L,M,H M
6 L L M,H M
7 L L L L
4.3. Determination of the final rating of organisms risk potential (ORP) by putting the
values of PE and CE determined from 4.1 and 4.2, and matching with one of the listed
cases with this study. ORP Rating (L, M, H) =
Case Probability of Consequence of OPR Rating

Establishment Establishment
Rating for this study
(L, M, H)
1 High High = High
2 Medium High = High
3 Low High = Medium
4 High Medium = High
5 Medium Medium = Medium
6 Low Medium = Medium
7 High Low = Medium
8 Medium Low = Medium
9 Low Low = Low
4.4. Determination of the pathway risk potential (PRP) based on the rating distribution
of the seven elements used for deriving the organism risk potential (ORP), by matching
one of the following listed scenarios. PRP Rating (L, M, H) =

Characteristics of the Rating Distribution of PRP Rating
the Seven Elements for Deriving ORP
1 or more scored with High rating(s) out of the seven High
5* or more scored with Medium rating(s) out of the seven High

1–5* scored with Medium rating(s) out of the seven Medium
All scored with Low ratings Low
*Note: The number, 5 used in this table is arbitrary. The selection of value 4 or 5 is possible when the
number of Medium risk organisms reaches a level at which the total risk of the pathway becomes high.
4.5. Recommendations on the proposed introduction and mitigation measures based

on the definition given below.
Rating of Definition Actions

ORP or PRP
Low Acceptable risk: • Introduction may be permitted
organism(s) of little • No mitigation is required
concern
Medium Unacceptable: organism(s) • Introduction should be banned
of moderate concern or should be controlled via risk
management
• Mitigation is justified
High Unacceptable: organism(s) • Introduction should be banned
of high concern • Mitigation is justified
Recommendations:

5. Specific Management Questions:

6. Remarks:

7. Cited References:

– End of the Organism Risk Assessment –

ANNEX 3
Recent studies applying quantitative risk assessment models for predicting and assessing the
invasiveness of aquatic organisms
Species or Region Reference

taxonomic of study
group of concern
Molluscs San Francisco Miller, A.W., Ruiz, G.M., Minton, M.S. & Ambrose,
Bay, USA R.F. 2007. Differentiating successful and failed molluscan
invaders in estuarine ecosystems. Mar. Ecol. Progr. Ser., 332:
41–51.
Green crab Washington, Colnar, A.M. & Landis W.G. 2007. Conceptual model
(Carcinus USA development for invasive species and a regional risk
maenas) assessment case study: the European green crab, Carcinus
maenas, at Cherry Point, Washington, USA. Hum. Ecol.
Risk Assess., 13: 120–155.
Molluscs Laurentian Keller, R.P., Drake, J.M. & Lodge, D.M. 2007. Fecundity
Great Lakes as a basis for risk assessment of nonindigenous freshwater
molluscs. Cons. Biol., 21: 191–200.
Fishes USA Chen, P.F., Wiley, E.O. & Mcnyset, K.M. 2007. Ecological
(Cyprinidae) niche modeling as a predictive tool: silver and bighead carps
in North America. Biol. Invas., 9: 43–51.
Fishes Europe and Jeschke, J.M. & Strayer, D.L. 2006. Determinants of
North America vertebrate invasion success in Europe and North America.
Global Change Biol., 12: 1608–1619.
Fishes California, USA Moyle, P.B. & Marchetti, M.P. 2006. Predicting invasion
success: freshwater fishes in California as a model.
Bioscience, 56: 515–524.
Fishes Colorado River, Olden, J.D., Poff, N.L. & Bestgen, K.R. 2006. Life-history
USA strategies predict fish invasions and extirpations in the
Colorado River Basin. Ecol. Monogr., 76: 25–40.
Fouling New Zealand Floerl, O., Inglis, G.J. & Hayden B.J. 2005. A risk-based
organisms predictive tool to prevent accidental introductions of
nonindigenous marine species. Env. Manag., 35: 765–778.
Fishes Laurentian Rixon, C.A.M., Duggan, I.C., Bergeron, N.M.N.,
Great Lakes, Ricciardi, A. & Macisaac, H.J. 2005. Invasion risks
Canada posed by the aquarium trade and live fish markets on the
Laurentian Great Lakes. Biodiversity Cons., 14: 1365–1381.
Fishes California, USA Marchetti, M.P., Moyle, P.B. & Levine, R. 2004. Alien
fishes in California watersheds: characteristics of successful
and failed invaders. Ecol. Appl., 14: 587–596.
ANNEX 4
Regulations of aquaculture escapes in 20031
Country Facility design Prevention and response plans Monitoring and enforcement
United States Each aquaculture facility Each facility must report known Certain agencies are authorized
(Maine) must employ a containment or suspected escapes of more to inspect aquaculture facilities
management system to prevent than 50 fish with an average for compliance with general
the escape of fish. Starting in weight of at least 2kg each permit. Each containment
May 2004, all Atlantic salmon within 24 hours. management system will be
placed in net pens must be of audited at least once per
North American origin. The use year and within 30 days of a
of transgenic fish is prohibited. reportable escape.
Timeline established for
marking all new fish placed in
net pens to identify the facility
owner and confirm that the fish
are from Maine.
United States All marine finfish hatched Aquaculture facilities must Aquaculture facilities must have
(Washington) after 31 December 2003 must have an escape prevention plan procedures for monitoring the
be marked so that they are and an escape reporting and implementation of the escape
individually identifiable to recapture plan. prevention plan. Employees of
the aquatic farmer. The use of the Washington Department of
transgenic fish is prohibited. Fish and Wildlife are authorized
to conduct inspections at the
aquaculture facilities.
Canada Regulations exist for Aquaculture facilities must have Inspectors are authorized to
(British construction, installation, written escape response plans. investigate facilities’ compliance
Columbia) inspection, and maintenance Facilities must verbally report with aquaculture regulations.
including comprehensive any escapes within 24 hours of No requirement for monitoring
regulations for net cages and the discovery of an escape or by license holder. Monitoring
related structures. evidence suggestion an escape. only via Atlantic Salmon Watch
reporting system.
Canada (New No escape regulations exist. No escape regulations exist. No escape regulations exist.
Brunswick)
Chile No escape regulations exist. No escape regulations exist. No escape regulations exist.
Faroe Island No escape regulations exist. No escape regulations exist. No escape regulations exist.
Iceland No specific requirements, but Aquaculture operating licenses Compliance with regulations
escape prevention is a general must specify plans to catch is monitored twice annually.
condition of aquaculture escaped fish. Escaped fish must Failure to comply with
operating licenses. be reported immediately. regulations can result in loss of
operator license. No system of
public reporting on compliance.
Ireland No specific requirements, but Facility owners must No systematic collection of
escape prevention is a general immediately report fish escapes data on contingency plans
condition of aquaculture and have contingency plans for for fish escapes or plans for
operating licenses. fish escapes. escape prevention. On-site
audits of wear or fatigue on
key elements of aquaculture
system.
Norway No specific requirements for Aquaculture facilities must Government operates “national
escape prevention, although keep contingency plans for program of action against
regulations are under limiting the size of escapes and escapes” and examines
development. Farms are recovering escaped fish. Escapes contingency plans and recorded
required to have nets in the sea must be reported immediately. keeping on operational
around each site in winter for procedures.
monitoring escaped farm fish.
Scotland For existing sites, a voluntary For existing sites, a voluntary No evidence of government
code of practice for stock code of practice requires monitoring of escape
containment addresses the contingency plans for prevention procedures or of
design and construction of recapturing escaped fish. New contingency plans for escapes.
aquaculture equipment and sites must have contingency
procedures that could affect plans.
escapes. New sites must have
escape prevention plans.
Tasmania No escape regulations exist. The holder of a marine farming No escape regulations exist.
license must take reasonable
precautions to prevent the
release, deposit or escape into
state waters of any introduced
fish.
1
From Naylor et al., 2005.
101
Application of risk analysis to

environmental issues in aquaculture
Michael J. Phillips
Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the Pacific (NACA)
PO Box 1040, Kasetsart Post Office
[email protected]
Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Division
00153 Rome, Italy
[email protected]
Phillips, M.J. and Subasinghe, R.P. 2008. Application of risk analysis to environmental
issues in aquaculture. In M.G. Bondad-Reantaso, J.R. Arthur and R.P. Subasinghe
(eds). Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture. FAO Fisheries and
ABSTRACT
Global production from aquaculture is growing, and future growth will be essential to
support human food demands. The development of aquaculture as a newly emerging
food production sector poses some risks to the natural environment and human health,
as detailed in various publications and studies over the past 20 years. The use of risk
analysis to identify hazards and to assess and manage environmental risks associated
with aquaculture development is, however, relatively new. This review identifies
potential environmental hazards related to aquaculture and outlines methods for
assessing, managing and communicating risk. As the risk analysis approach is rather
new to the aquaculture sector, recommendations for further action are also provided.
Reference is also made to the recent work on risk analysis by the GESAMP (IMO/
FAO/UNESCO-IOC/WMO/WHO/IAEA/UN/UNEP Joint Group of Experts
on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection) Working Groups on
Environmental Impacts of Coastal Aquaculture (Anon., 2007) that has helped to
explore and define approaches and options for environmental risk assessment and
communication in coastal aquaculture.
INTRODUCTION
Global production from aquaculture has grown substantially, contributing significant
quantities to the world’s supply of fish for human consumption. This increasing trend
is projected to continue in forthcoming decades. The sector is envisioned to contribute
more effectively to food security, poverty reduction and economic development by
producing –with minimum impact on the environment and maximum benefit to
society – 83 million tonnes of aquatic food by 2030, an increase of 37.5 million tonnes
over the 2004 level (FAO, 2006).
The recognition by government of the need for sound aquaculture policies, population
growth, increasing purchasing power of people, opening of new markets facilitated by
trade liberalization, and technological advances bring greater opportunities for further
development of the sector. The stagnating level of capture fisheries; strengthening of
institutional capacity; increasing consumer demand for diversified, safe and quality
aquatic products; increasing environmental concerns; the scarcity of land and water
resources; and supporting small-scale farmers all pose major challenges to the sector.
The development of aquaculture as a newly emerging food production sector
poses some risks to the natural environment and human health, as detailed in various
publications and studies over the past 20 years. The use of risk analysis to identify
hazards and to assess and manage environmental risks associated with aquaculture
development is, however, relatively new. The purpose of this review is to identify
potential environmental hazards related to aquaculture and outline methods for
assessing, managing and communicating risk. As the risk analysis approach is rather
new to the aquaculture sector, recommendations for further action are also provided.
Reference is also made to the recent work on risk analysis by the GESAMP (IMO/
FAO/UNESCO-IOC/WMO/WHO/IAEA/UN/UNEP Joint Group of Experts
on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection) Working Groups on
Environmental Impacts of Coastal Aquaculture (Anon., 2007) that has helped to
explore and define approaches and options for environmental risk assessment and
communication in coastal aquaculture.
In most countries, environmental impact assessment (EIA) is the main existing and
legally required assessment tool, and many of the elements of risk analysis are already
included in the EIA process, although associated with somewhat different terminology.
Risk analysis should therefore be part of EIA and strategic environmental assessment,
rather than considered as a separate or even parallel process. It is also emphasized that
the risk analysis process (as for EIA) needs to be related to management. The analysis
is of limited practical use if there is no management framework suitable for addressing
the most significant environmental risks associated with aquaculture development.
RISK ANALYSIS
Risk analysis is a tool for understanding where to focus management efforts to
most effectively reduce the potential environmental effects of human activities. Risk
assessment is considered part of the process of risk analysis, and is being widely used
for human health and ecological assessments, varying widely in scope and application.
Some assessments look at single hazards in a range of exposure scenarios such as many
health risk analyses (e.g. Codex food safety-related risk analysis consideration of a
chemical); others are more site-specific and look at the range of risks posed by an
installation, while others are very broad and may consider multiple hazards posing
multiple risks to ecosystems and human health.
There are some differences in terminology used in risk analysis and risk assessment,
across a varied range of uses. In broad terms, risk assessments being carried out to
examine the effects of hazards on humans (health risk assessment) (Fairman, 1999)
and ecosystems (ecological risk assessment). Ecological risk assessment is the process
of estimating likelihoods and consequences of the effects of human actions or natural
events on plants, animals and ecosystems of ecological value, that is, the study of
risks to the natural environment. Environmental risk assessment has been defined as
the examination of risks resulting from technology that threaten ecosystems, animals
and people, i.e. it is broader than health and ecological risk assessments. It includes
human health risk assessments, ecological or ecotoxicological risk assessments, and also
specific industrial applications of risk assessment that examine end-points in people,
biota or ecosystems. The uses of risk assessments are likewise wide and varied. The
risks examined in the assessment can be physical, such as radiation, biological, such as
a genetically modified organism (GMO) or pathogen, or chemical, such as an immuno-
toxic substance.
The target/receptor to be examined in the risk assessment also varies. Human beings
are the species most extensively considered in human health risk assessments – but
other single species risk assessments are common in ecological risk assessments. Many
ecological risk assessments have solely considered a single or a few species, since only
ecologically representative organisms are selected as assessment end-point. Increasingly,
ecological risk assessments are being applied to ecosystems or habitats, greatly
increasing complexity. Environmental risk assessments as applied to aquaculture may
therefore include the wide range of targets/receptors from humans to ecosystems.
Risk assessments also refer to “end-points”. End-points are the environmental value
that is to be protected, operationally defined by an ecological entity and its attributes.
Ecological end-points should be ecologically, socially and politically relevant; sensitive
to the potential stressors; amenable to measurement and relevant to the management
goals (Suter, 1993). End-points can be mortality or morbidity in human health
assessments or other single species assessments. For some ecological risk assessments,
end-points may be those that indicate biodiversity or disturbance to ecological systems.
These varied approaches are all relevant to aquaculture and are associated with a wide
range of potential environmental hazards and a wide range of end-points. The term
end-point is closely related those of impact, management objective and indicators used
in EIA terminology.
Risk analysis and assessment approaches may seem overly complex and with
varied terminology being applied, but the method also has considerable potential to
simplify and focus the analysis and subsequent management recommendations on key
environmental issues of concern. In practice, except for a few more advanced countries,
it has been rarely used as a formal tool for addressing potential environmental hazards
in aquaculture, within government or private business, and its potential as a tool for
supporting better regulation and management of the aquaculture sector remains largely
untested.
There are a number of unifying principles underlying all risk assessments. These
underlying principles are developed from those laid down by Covello and Merkhofer
(1993) as follows:
• Problem formulation – to formulate the problem being addressed, and the scope
of the risk analysis;
• Hazard identification – to determine the nature of potential hazards (threat or
stressor);
• Release assessment – to determine the likelihood of a “release” associated with the
hazard1;
• Exposure assessment – to determine the magnitude and extent the physical
effects of an undesirable event (identified in the hazard identification and release
assessment stages);
• Consequence assessment – attempts to quantify the possible damage caused by the
exposure to the hazard; and
• Risk estimation – consists of integrating the estimation of the probability of
release and exposure events with the results of the consequence assessment to
produce an estimate of the overall risk or probability of the event occurring.
1
The term “release”, which is appropriate for single pathogen or contaminant risk analyses, is potentially
confusing for some ecosystem-level risk analyses. Several ecological risk analysis protocols skip this
phase and move from hazard identification to the exposure and consequence analysis.
International risk analysis protocols

Internationally recognized risk analysis protocols do exist, and the process is well
established as a tool for health and ecological management and decision-making in
various sectors. It is therefore important to look at the applicability of those protocols
and pathways in applying risk analysis to aquaculture before considering creation of
new protocols and pathways. It is also emphasised that in most countries, EIA is the
main existing and legally required assessment tool, and many of the elements of risk
analysis are already established within this framework.
Examples of existing risk analysis protocols in related disciplines are the World
Organisation for Animal Health’s (OIE) import risk analysis protocol, which focuses
on aquatic animal diseases and health (Murray et al., 2004,), and the international
principles and guidelines for the conduct of microbiological and other food safety
associated risk assessments, as developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations/World Health Organization (FAO/WHO) Codex Alimentarius
Commission. Ecological risk analysis protocols are also being used for analysing
impacts associated with introduction of exotic species, genetically modified organisms,
residue contamination and increasingly, ecosystems. These approaches are clearly
applicable in aquaculture, depending on the hazards and risks being analyzed.
Application of risk analysis in aquaculture

Risk assessment and management approaches to addressing environmental issues are
increasingly being used at all levels of policy and regulation, with a wide range of
applications (Fairman et al., 1998), including:
• designing of regulation, for instance in determining societally “acceptable” risk
levels that may form the basis of environmental standards;
• providing a basis for site-specific decisions, for instance in land-use planning or
identifying a suitable site of an hazardous installation;
• prioritizing environmental risks, for instance in the determination of which
chemicals to regulate first; and
• comparing risks, for instance to enable comparisons to be made between the
resources being allocated to the control of different types of risk or to allow risk
substitution decisions to be made.
Risk analysis has traditionally been a function of policy and regulatory agencies
and most development has taken place in these fields. Environmental risk analysis is
now becoming more common in industry in many industrialized countries, partly as
a result of the use of risk analysis in regulation. The scope of risk analysis in industry
for example includes:
• compliance with legislation,
• product safety,
• financial planning,
• site-specific decision-making, and
• prioritization and evaluation of risk reduction measures.
Although risk assessment and management have and will continue to become
increasingly important environmental management tools, it is important to look at
what the techniques can actually achieve and equally as importantly, what they cannot.
Some of the good points, as identified by DEFRA (2002) include:
• a technique that can weigh-up information that is basically in different
“languages”;
• a mechanism to aid decision-making;
• a basis for effective risk communication; and
• a method for highlighting and prioritizing research needs.
There are a number of disadvantages and pitfalls:
• The techniques have been criticized for a number of reasons, some of which are
not real criticisms of the techniques but are related to the philosophical basis
of carrying out such assessments in the first place (e.g. some stakeholders in
ecological risk assessments conducted in Australia objected to the use of a risk
assessment approach to single “end-points”, arguing that the environment was too
complex to simplify).
• Criticisms focusing on the use of the techniques include possible over-reliance and
over confidence in results; a narrow focus on parts of a problem rather than the
whole and awkward relationship between risk assessment and the precautionary
principle.
Risk analysis has been less used to date in aquaculture, except for human food
safety hazards (Codex) and hazards associated with movement of live aquatic animals
(OIE and some ecological risk analyses concerning introduction of exotic species or
genetically modified organisms). In Australia, risk analysis is becoming extensively
used for policy development in aquaculture (DPIF, 2004, 2005) for:
• identifying appropriate monitoring methods for offshore aquaculture (risk
analysis used to prioritize environmental issues, and the monitoring methods were
part of the controls);
• developing translocation protocols used in risk assessments to determine relative
risk of various translocations (level of risk associated with geography – local,
interstate, international) and species (endemic, introduced, exotic);
• developing Codes of Practice to minimize risk of disease transfer (e.g. abalone
viral ganglioneuritis);
• developing best practice environmental guidelines (e.g. for salmonids and
recirculating aquaculture systems); and
• developing protocols for monitoring trout farms based on the size of the farm
relative to a variety of environmental criteria.
GESAMP (Anon., 2007) has explored the application of risk analysis and
identified various “objectives” for both the application of the risk assessment and risk
communication protocols in coastal aquaculture as follows: 2
• Integration into sustainable use paradigms: Risk assessment as a science-based
assessment that must be integrated into a broader socio-economic decision-
making process to determine resource allocation for sustainable use. Risk analysis
provides the basis for doing this through use of explicit levels of acceptable
protection that are dictated by social processes and a consistent and explicit
mechanism for transparent application of the precautionary principle.
• Separation of scientific analysis from valuation: Risk assessment is a science-
based analysis. In itself, it does not determine if a predicted outcome is good or
bad, acceptable or unacceptable. Determination of these values can only occur
when the predicted outcome is combined with social and economic information.
In other words, “risk communication” and involvement of “stakeholders” are
essential for effective application of risk analysis.
• Non-discrimination: Comparable situations should not be treated differently
and different situations should not be treated in the same way, unless there are
objective grounds for doing so.
• Transparency: To optimize the accuracy, effectiveness and social licence for
aquaculture activities, risk communication must start early in the risk analysis
process and communicate the information stakeholders and decision-makers
require in a manner they can utilize.
• Consistency: Measures should be comparable in nature and scope with measures
already taken in equivalent areas in which scientific data are available.
2
Although GESAMP refers to these “objectives”, they are more like statements and do not effectively
convey the objectives of using risk analysis in the context of aquaculture and aquaculture management.
• Proportionality: Risk management measures must not be disproportionate to

the marginal change in risk and to the desired level of protection. It also must
not aim for zero risk. Where no hazard can be identified, the risk assessment risk
assessment should be concluded and the risk evaluated as non-significant.
• Monitoring of predicted effects: Where ongoing monitoring is identified as
a necessary component of risk management, the initial assessment must be
considered as of a provisional nature. Availability of more reliable scientific data
may lead to changes in understanding of the mechanisms leading to environmental
change and the level of risk (increased or decreased) associated with aquaculture .
A requirement to monitor must be tied to a requirement of regulators to regularly
report on the outcome and implications of monitoring.
Risk analyses have been applied to a limited extent in aquaculture and mostly for
assessing hazards and risks associated with a single species or pathogen and most
commonly in the context of human health, pathogens and species introductions (Table 1).
Less common is the use of risk analysis to address other environmental issues associated
with aquaculture development. There are also considerable gaps in knowledge and
experience, particularly in the context of aquaculture and environmental interactions
in developing countries. The need for new tools for environmental management of
aquaculture is emphasized by various authors (e.g. Focardi, Corsi and Franchi, 2005).
Capacity for risk analysis

It must be recognized that many forms of risk analysis are a significant undertaking,
requiring considerable capacity, both in terms of human skills and access to suitable
information and tools, which may limit their application in some developing countries.
For example, Hart et al. (2001) recommend that ecological risk assessments in wetlands
involve a multidisciplinary team comprising a social scientist and experts with skills
that may include ecology, biology, hydrology, water quality, environmental chemistry,
ecotoxicolgy, statistics and modeling.
TABLE 1
Brief summary of some uses of risk analysis in addressing environmental issues in aquaculture
Hazard categories Risk analysis approach Examples in aquaculture Key references
Human health: FAO/WHO Codex and Risks of Vibrio in seafood Codex Alimentarius Commission
• Food safety hazards other health risk analysis (www.codexalimentarius.net)
associated contaminants protocols
(residues, pathogens,
chemicals)
• Health and safety
Aquatic animal health: As outlined in the OIE Many examples – e.g. OIE (www.oie.int)
Release of pathogens Aquatic Animal Health import risk analysis OIE (2007)
Code associated with white spot
syndrome virus in shrimp
(Australia, Pacific islands)
Ecological: Ecological risk analysis Impacts of salmon escapes Naylor et al. (2005)
• Release of genetically used with single issue/ Introduction of exotic Arthur et al. (2004a)
modified organisms species Penaeus species to Pacific
(GMOs), exotic species, islands
escapes
• Release of wastes and Widely applied in Application to monitoring DPIF (2004)
other contaminants industry, but limited protocols for aquaculture
application to wastes in salmonid culture
aquaculture (Australia)
Organic contaminants in Hites et al. (2004)
farmed salmon
Use of antibiotics in Christensen, Ingerslev & Baun
aquaculture (2006)
• Disturbance/loss of Ecological risk analysis, Very limited application to Visuthismajarn et al. (2005)
ecosystem/biodiversity but complex because of aquaculture to date. Some
multiple hazards and work on salinity impacts of
multiple stresses that may shrimp farming
effect many components Collection of wild pearls for Wells and Jernakoff (2006)
of ecosystems aquaculture
On the other hand, risk analysis might offer some scope to contribute to capacity
building and more efficient use of resources. One of the benefits of undertaking a risk
analysis is to map out relationships and critical areas of uncertainty and ignorance.
If this uncertainty is associated with potential severe impacts, then either the
precautionary approach is invoked (according to local priorities!) or more research is
required. However, the initial analysis is valid at all states of knowledge/capacity for
research – indeed it contributes to building that capacity (J. Hambrey, pers. comm.).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS IN AQUACULTURE

On a global scale, the major areas of environmental concerns for aquaculture are now
well identified, and include the following:
• wetland and habitat utilization and damage to ecosystem functions;
• abstraction of water;
• sediment deposition and benthic impacts;
• effluent discharge, hypernutrification and eutrophication;
• environmental contamination and human health risks associated with veterinary
drugs;
• human health concerns related to chemical, biological and physical food safety
hazards;
• ground water contamination;
• exotic species introduction;
• genetic impacts on wild populations;
• introduction of aquatic animal pathogens and pests;
• other wildlife and biodiversity impacts; and
• social issues related to resource utilization and access.
These issues have been discussed and reviewed in numerous papers and books
(GESAMP, 1991, 2001; Barg, 1992; Naylor et al., 1998; Phillips, 1998; Asche, Bremnes
and Wessells, 1999; Black, 2001; Hindar, 2001; Crawford, 2003). Although the
concerns are highly diverse and are farming species/system and site specific, there are
some common characteristics to be taken into account if improved environmental
management is to be achieved:
• Many of the impacts are subtle and cumulative – often insignificant in relation to a
single farm but potentially highly significant for a large number of farms producing
over a long period of time, particularly if crowded in relation to limited resources.
• Some of the impacts may be highly dispersed through space and time, depending
on such factors such as seasonality, farm management, stocking practices and
others.
• There is a high level of uncertainty and ignorance associated with many potential
impacts of aquaculture. This argues for more extensive use of the precautionary
approach to aquaculture but makes gathering and analysis of risk analysis data
problematic.
Relevant treaties, agreements and guidelines

There are a number of international, regional and national standards; guiding
principles; codes of practice or protocols available that relate to environmental issues
and management in aquaculture, some of which can be useful for guidance in problem
formulation and hazard identification, and in scoping the environmental risk analysis
and risk management measures. Key international documents that encourage improved
environmental management of aquaculture and provide relevant guidance or standards
include:
• the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (CCRF), which provides principles
and criteria for responsible fisheries, including (Article 9) on aquaculture (FAO,
1995);
• International Principles for Responsible Shrimp Farming (FAO/NACA/UNEP/

WB/WWF, 2006);
• Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 2003),
• Codex Alimentarius food safety standards, Codes of Practice and guidelines; and
• World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) Aquatic Animal Health Code
(OIE, 2007)
However, international agreements by no means cover all aspects related to
environmental risks associated with aquaculture production. For example, the
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) recognizes that there are gaps and
inconsistencies in the requirements for risk analysis associated with alien aquatic species
and specifically mentions that movement of alien species associated with aquaculture
is still not covered by any binding international instrument, despite the acknowledged
vulnerability of aquatic biodiversity to biological invasion (CBD, 2003).
Environmental hazards
DEFRA (2002) defines “hazard” as a property or situation that in particular
circumstances could lead to harm. “Hazard” is defined by the European Union (EU)
more broadly as an agent, medium, process, procedure or site with the potential to
cause an adverse effect (EU Commission, 2000).
Applied to aquaculture, such definitions could encompass, for example, the release
of solid waste or nutrients, habitat disturbance or damage due to building of ponds in a
wetland, abstraction of water leading to low river flows or the introduction of an exotic
species. Where risk analysis is to be applied at the policy level, the hazard could be as
broad as the adverse impacts of aquaculture on the environment.
Environmental interactions of aquaculture are extremely varied, and therefore a
wide range of hazards can be identified, encompassing those affecting ecology as well
as human health. While much attention is given to environmental hazards arising from
aquaculture, there are also hazards arising from other sectors that may lead to harm for
aquaculture. Environmental hazards can therefore arise from both within and outside
the aquaculture sector and may cause harm to aquaculture or to the environment. It
is important to understand that the nature of the hazards and the process of hazard
identification should characterize those aspects that might facilitate the expression of
undesirable effects. As a priority step before hazard identification, problem formulation,
or what the risk analysis is trying to achieve and why, is also important in focusing
efforts and resources. Recognizing such issues and to prevent expending unproductive
effort, analysis should be terminated if hazard identification fails to identify evidence
of an increased probability of the occurrence of an undesirable effect.
Environmental hazards and risk associated with aquaculture relate primarily to the
siting, design and operations of aquaculture enterprises and their varied interactions
with the surrounding environment, principally water, land, biodiversity and other
natural resources required by aquaculture, as well as in some cases human food safety
and health aspects. Many of the natural resources used by aquaculture are commonly
shared with other aquaculturists or other user groups in coastal and inland areas
(e.g. water), and therefore environmental hazards associated with aquaculture are of
common concern to society in many countries.
There is no easy classification of the diversity of environmental hazards in
aquaculture, but in general these may be classified broadly, with some overlap, as given
below.
1) Disturbance or damage to ecosystems and biodiversity, including:
• Hazards associated with the siting and operation of aquaculture facilities and
damage to natural or man-made ecosystems and biodiversity, such as land
clearing or ecosystem disturbance in mangroves, coral reefs and other sensitive
habitats.
• Hazards associated with the release through escape or deliberate stocking of

aquatic animals, including genetic impacts on native stocks, GMOs and disease.
The escape of inbred or genetically modified aquaculture stocks also represents
a concern for genetic diversity of wild stocks related to inappropriate breeding
measures. Deliberate stocking of fish in culture-based fisheries may raise similar
concerns over impacts on wild populations.
• Demand for fishmeal and fish oil is of concern in relation to damage to fish
stocks and marine ecosystems associated with the use of fishmeal and fish oil in
aquaculture diets.
• Collection of wild fry, fingerlings and broodstock from natural marine and
freshwater ecosystems.
2) Water quality and supply
• Discharge of various solid and dissolved material from aquaculture farms leading
to water quality changes in receiving waters. The discharge of solid and dissolved
pollutants in intensive aquaculture effluent is a major environmental hazard
leading to risks of water and sediment pollution, but more subtle changes, such
as that caused by the filtering of organic material and plankton by mollusks,
should also be considered. The seepage and discharge of saline pond water is a
further hazard that may cause salinity changes in of groundwater and surrounding
agricultural land.
• Consumptive use of water by aquaculture operations is a hazard that may lead
to reduced flows and hydrological changes in natural habitats, mainly concerned
with aquaculture farms utilizing water from freshwater ecosystems.
• Release of environmental contaminants arising from improper use of veterinary
drugs, chemicals and other materials and their discharge to the environment.
3) Animal health and welfare
• Release of pathogens to the natural environment leading to aquatic animal and plant
diseases and potential for impacts on both wild and cultured aquatic organisms.
4) Human health
• Food safety hazards associated with aquaculture, including chemical, biological
and physical hazards associated with the farming, harvest and post-harvest
treatment of farmed aquatic animals and plants.
• Occupational health hazards associated with the aquaculture working
environment.
Examples of environmental hazards that may impact on aquaculture include the
release of contaminants from other sectors, red tides, water abstraction and physical
damage caused by natural hazards such as extreme weather, climate change or even
catastrophic events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.
Identification of hazards in aquaculture

The wide range of environmental hazards in aquaculture and sometimes, the costs of
risk analysis, make it necessary at the outset to carefully determine the scope of the risk
assessment. Decisions need to be made and clearly articulated on the specific objectives
and scope of the risk assessment (e.g. qualitative or quantitative analysis of a single or
multiple threats to a single or multiple environmental assets; determination of spatial
and temporal scale). These decisions will guide the type of data and information that
need to be gathered and help to identify knowledge gaps.
At this “problem formulation and hazard identification” stage, existing information
typically needs to be compiled for the following:
• the environment of interest, particularly its most important assets (and their
values), or at least those that need to be protected or are potentially at risk;
• the hazard(s) to which the environmental assets are, or may be, exposed; and
• the types of effects that the hazard(s) may have on the environmental assets.
The synthesis of such information should be done in consultation with stakeholders

through an agreed-upon process. For example, the assigning of the “values” of
ecological aspects in particular requires consultation to determine their significance for
society and local communities.
End-points
End-points are the environmental values that are to be protected, operationally defined
by an ecological entity and its attributes. For example, salmon are valued ecological
entities; reproduction and age class structure are some of their important attributes.
Together “salmon reproduction and age class structure” could form an assessment end-
point. In other cases, ecological characteristics such as the abundance of some sensitive
species could be considered. Ecological end-points should be ecologically, socially and
politically relevant, sensitive to the potential stressors, amenable to measurement and
relevant to the management goals (Suter, 1993).
The specific undesirable end-points that need to be managed may be identified
in a variety of ways. Some of the end-points are the result of legislative mandates or
international agreements. Others may be derived from special socio-economic concerns
and may be identified through community consultations. Legislation and policies of the
national or regional authority may identify some end-points that need to be managed.
The IMO/FAO/UNESCO-IOC/WMO/WHO/IAEA/UN/UNEP Joint Group of
Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP)
notes five broad categories of environmental effects or end-points commonly raised as
concerns by society in relation to temperate coastal marine aquaculture:
• changes in primary producers:
– abundance (i.e. of macroalgae and marine angiosperms)
– composition (i.e. harmful microalgae);
• changes in survival of wild populations due to genetic change, disease or
competition from escaped aquatic animals and plants from aquaculture facilities;
• changes in composition and distribution of macrobenthic populations;
• changes in trophic resources; and
• changes in habitat (physical and chemical).
However, the actual end-points associated with the wide range of potential hazards
in aquaculture will vary and will be site specific. Prior to initiating a risk analysis, it is
important to identify the “end-point(s)”.
Risk assessment3
Risk assessment is a process for evaluating the likelihood of adverse environmental
effects arising from the hazard. This phase incorporates the release assessment,
exposure (likelihood) assessment and consequences (effects) assessment. These are
described separately below. The most pertinent information sources and techniques
should be used, although these will vary depending on the assessment. Some types and
sources of information include (Standards Australia 2004a, 2004b):
• past records, including relevant published literature;
• experiments and investigations;
• modeling;
• practice and relevant experience;
• results of public consultation; and
• specialist and expert judgements.
3
Some ecological risk assessment guidelines refer to this step as “analysis”.
Release assessment
Release assessment consists of describing the probability of release, as well as the
quantity, timing and distribution of a hazard in an environment. If the release
assessment demonstrates no significant probability of release, the risk assessment need
not continue.
For example, a release assessment associated with a hazard such as discharge of
nutrients from an intensive aquaculture farm would examine the probability of nutrient
release, amounts of the nutrients of interest, timing and distribution into the receiving
environment. The term release assessment is less relevant to some hazards associated
with aquaculture, such as the siting of farms and habitat conversion. Some ecological
assessments therefore do not consider this part of the risk assessment.
Exposure assessment
Exposure assessment determines the likelihood of the effects of an undesirable event
(identified in the hazard identification and release assessment stages). Data on the
effects of a hazard provide little useful information without knowledge on the actual
level of exposure of the end-point to the hazard.
Thus exposure assessment aims to determine the likelihood that the environmental
asset(s) of concern will be exposed to the hazard and therefore, that an effect will be
realized. For a biological hazard, such as an invasive species, exposure assessment
might involve integrating information on the source of the species, the potential route
of entry into the ecosystem of interest, rate of spread, habitat preferences and associated
distribution. Existing information (e.g. remotely sensed imagery) or habitat suitability
modelling can be used for such purposes. If the exposure assessment demonstrates no
significant likelihood of significant exposure, the risk assessment may conclude at this
step.
The outputs of the exposure assessment should involve and be crosschecked
with stakeholders to ensure that data and information were used and interpreted
appropriately. The assessment should also be iterative. Information that is obtained
throughout the process should allow for reassessment of an earlier step. In particular,
discoveries during the analysis stage may encourage a shift in emphasis. Rather than
being considered a failure of initial planning, this constant reassessment enables
environmental risk assessment to be a dynamic process well suited to ecological
study.
Consequence assessment
Consequence assessment aims to determine and characterize the impacts or consequences
of the release on the measurement end-points selected during problem formulation. For
example, reduced water quality (for whatever reason) might impact aquatic ecosystems
as measured by reduced species diversity and abundance of macroinvertebrate and/
or fish communities. It is desirable to quantify the magnitude of impact to the extent
possible. The process of risk assessment associated with the theoretical release of solid
organic material from a marine fish farm is summarized in Table 2.
Risk estimation4
This step integrates the outcomes of the effects (consequences) and exposure
(likelihood) assessments in order to determine the level of risk (i.e. consequences ×
likelihood) to environmental values (end-points).
In general, there are three levels at which this analysis of risks can be undertaken:
qualitative, semiquantitative and quantitative. Often, risk assessments are undertaken
in a tiered manner, with initial screening-level qualitative or semiquantitative analyses
4
Referred to as risk characterization in some ecological risk analysis documents.
TABLE 2
Risk assessment approach applied to solid organic material from an intensive marine fish farm
Risk analysis step Description Methods
Potential hazard Discharge of organic fish farm waste Consultation
Analysis
End-point Benthic macrofauna diversity and Scientific, legal review and
species retained public consultation
Release assessment Assess amounts, patterns and types Review of scientific data,
of organic wastes released from fish management information.
farm (uneaten food, faeces, displaced
fouling organisms)
Exposure assessment Assess organic material settling on the Benthic models (relating
benthos (i.e. being exposed to solid current, depth and settling
organic waste) velocity of sold waste), site
assessments
Consequence assessment Assess how benthic macrofauna Review of scientific literature,
diversity and species are impacted by site assessments
organic material accumulation rates
Risk estimation Estimate consequences; the probability Risk evaluation matrix method
and extent that benthic macrofauna
diversity and species will be impacted
being done prior to more detailed quantitative analyses. This approach can be used
to first rank the threats and associated hazards so that more effort can be allocated
to quantitative risk analyses for the most important (i.e. highest priority) hazards.
Quantitative risk assessment methods are becoming more widely used. They include
decision or logic trees, probabilistic methods, predictive models, dynamic simulation
models and Bayesian networks (McDaniels, Keen and Dawlatabadi, 2006; GESAMP,
2007). An example of a qualitative risk estimation using a simple matrix approach is
shown in Table 3.
GESAMP has attempted to develop a “logic model” to explore and illustrate the
complex causal chain between hazard and ecological end-points. The “release-exposure”
model is rather limited and difficult to apply to many aquaculture-associated hazards
TABLE 3
Risk evaluation matrix for determining level of risk
H Yes No No No No
M Yes No No No No
Probability of exposure2
L Yes Yes No No No
VL Yes Yes Yes No No
EL Yes Yes Yes Yes No
N Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
N L M H C
Significance of consequences3

1
Yes = the risk is acceptable and the activity can be permitted; No = the risk is unacceptable and the activity
cannot be permitted without further risk management.
2
Level of probability: H=high, M=moderate, L=low, VL=very low, EL=extremely low, N=negligible.
3
Level of significance: C=catastrophic, H=high, M=moderate, L=low, N=negligible.
Source: Standards Australia, 2004a.
(it was developed originally in relation to simple toxic chemical release and exposure
of organisms). GESAMP has therefore built up causal models with information on the
probability of a causal effect, the uncertainty (lack of knowledge or unpredictability)
associated with the relationship and the severity of the effect (intensity, extent,
duration).
This approach may serve as a useful tool to: a) analyze the nature and overall
significance of the risk, b) communicate and exchange knowledge and perspective
on the various relationships and associated risks/uncertainties and c) focus further
work on key areas where probability, severity and uncertainty are all high, and where
research can significantly reduce uncertainty.
There are also many variations on this in the form of networks, trees, matrices and
associated scoring systems that can be used to explore alternative outcomes and/or the
likely benefit to be derived from specific management interventions.
The wide range of environmental issues in aquaculture therefore requires a wide
range of tools and approaches. The complexities of environmental risk assessment in
aquaculture will also be influenced by a complex interaction of different factors related
to the sector, such as:
• the variability associated with technology, farming and management systems, and
the capacity of farmers to manage technology;
• the variability associated with location (i.e. climatic, water, sediment and biological
features), the suitability of the environment for the cultured animals and the
environmental conditions under which animals and plants are cultured;
• the financial and economic feasibility and investment, such as the amount invested
in proper farm infrastructure, short versus long-term economic viability of
farming operations, investment and market incentives or disincentives, and the
marketability of products;
• the socio-cultural aspects, such as the intensity of resource use, population
pressures and social and cultural values and aptitudes in relation to aquaculture;
social conflicts and increasingly, consumer perceptions, all play an important role;
and
• institutional and political factors such as government policy and the legal
framework, political interventions, plus the scale and quality of technical
extension support and other institutional and non-institutional factors that are
also influential in determining the risks, possibilities for management and the
success with which the risk analysis approach can be applied.
The risk analysis approach however can also be used, as it has been in Australia,
to explore the risks associated with different technologies and indeed, to use such
information to develop industry codes of practice (DPIF, 2005).
The role of social aspects

The social aspects of environmental risk analysis for aquaculture deserve special
attention. Economic, political, legal and social concerns play important roles throughout
the assessment, evaluation and decision-making stages of risk management. Ensuring
dialogue between interested parties at all stages requires an understanding of the social
aspects of risk along with an appreciation of the mechanisms by which stakeholders can
be actively engaged in the process.
The evaluation of risk entails a judgment about how significant the risk is to the
receiving environment and to those concerned with, or affected by, the decision.
In conjunction with formal scientific input, this requires the examination of public
and political judgments about risks alongside the measurable costs and benefits of
the activity in question. The precise knowledge required for an objective evaluation
is often lacking for environmental risk assessment and an element of judgment is
therefore usually needed. Furthermore, environmental quality involves both scientific
elements and social elements. There is, therefore, a need to consider carefully the social
dimensions of a risk as a part of the decision-making process. Indeed, the process of
risk analysis has, perhaps unfairly, been criticized as being “too scientific” and ignoring
social values.
Society is increasingly conscious of the harm that its activities can cause to the
environment and the harm to people or the loss of quality of life that can result from
environmental degradation. Decisions about environmental risks should, according to
DEFRA (2002), take account of social issues because:
• General awareness of environmental risks has increased, and this is often associated
with heightened levels of concern;
• Recent experience has shown how essential it is to have in place a framework that
ensures transparency in decision-making and that forms a justifiable basis for
policies on environmental protection;
• Calls have been made for a greater degree of public involvement in decision-
making processes for environmental protection; and
• There is increasing pressure on those who create and regulate risk to inform the
public about the risks to which they and their environment are exposed.
In conjunction with the assessment of a risk, it is important therefore to ensure
the decision-maker asks whether the risk is likely to be acceptable to those concerned
with, or affected by, the risk or consequent management decision. Evaluating the social
significance of a risk can guide decision-making and help towards communicating
about the risk to interested parties. It is, therefore, essential that the decision-maker
considers social dimensions as part of the processes to identify, assess, evaluate and
manage risks to the environment. A further detailed discussion of the social aspects of
risk is provided in DEFRA (2002).
Risk management
Risk management is the design, selection and implementation of a programme of
actions to minimize risk to an acceptable level. Risk management measures may also
include monitoring, the outcomes of which should be used to re-assess risk as well as
to determine or modify the success of risk management measures.
Risk management measures to address environmental issues in aquaculture are now
being used in several countries following risk assessment. An example is in the State of
South Australia, where the type and level of environmental management and reporting
requirements for effluents from inland aquaculture farms are varied depending on the risk
classification from the assessment phase. Higher risk farms require additional parameters
and increased frequency of sampling (Government of South Australia, undated).
Risk communication
The purpose of risk communication is to supply planners, managers, industry
experts, environmental agencies and laypeople with the information that they need
to make informed, independent judgments about risks to their health, about the
safety of the operation under consideration and about the potential environmental
effects, as well as concerning the economic and social risks associated with the
development (DEFRA, 2002).
Risk communication is widely recognized as a critical component of the risk
analysis process. GESAMP has identified the following important aspects for risk
communication as applied to coastal aquaculture:
• Social buy-in is critical: Offer stakeholders a sense of ownership of the process
and built trust in those conducting the exercise.
• Stakeholders needs are important: Identify issues of concern and stakeholder
priorities that need to be incorporated in hazard identification and risk
assessment.
• Show what science can and cannot say: Provide a sound mechanism by which
stakeholders are informed about the nature and strength of causal relationships
and the probabilities and uncertainties associated with the predicted environmental
risks of the aquaculture development.
• Build trust: Guarantee that transparency of the entire risk analysis process
leading to decision-making is facilitated by effective exchange of information and
deals with perceptions, facts and uncertainty
• Value non-science sources of information: Ensure that all pertinent and
significant data required for the risk analysis are captured, not only from solid
natural science disciplines that allow assessment environmental influence or
change, but also incorporating stakeholder information on objectives, priorities
and perceived risks.
Communication about environmental risks serves many important purposes.
It can be used either as a tool to provide information, explain and warn, or to
encourage collective partnership approaches to decision-making through greater public
participation in the risk management process.
Risk communication, although difficult to achieve successfully, can be implemented
in different ways. It should also aim to engage diverse stakeholder audiences. These
audiences may hold different values and have different levels of understanding,
and the interpretation of a message can be dependent on a variety of social factors.
Provided these complexities are borne in mind and the objectives are clearly defined,
communication can achieve its desired outcome.
Efforts simply aimed at the provision of quantitative risk estimates are likely to be
of limited value because of the complex nature of risk judgements. Communication
should be sensitive to a broad concept of risk, encompassing not only quantitative
information, but also other dimensions such as individual attitudes and issues of
trust and credibility. GESAMP has further highlighted various objectives for risk
communication as essential to:
• offer stakeholders a sense of ownership of the process and build trust in those
conducting the exercise;
• identify issues of concern and stakeholder priorities that need to be incorporated
in risk identification and risk analysis;
• ensure that user knowledge is effectively incorporated into the decision process;
• provide sound mechanisms by which stakeholders are informed about the nature
and strength of causal relationships and the probabilities and uncertainties
associated with the development;
• guarantee that transparency of the entire risk analysis process leading to
decision-making is facilitated by effective exchange of information and deals with
perceptions, facts and uncertainty;
• ensure that all pertinent and significant data required for the risk analysis are
captured, not only from solid natural science disciplines that allow assessment of
environmental influence or change, but also incorporating stakeholder information
on objectives, priorities and perceived risks;
• provide the means so that any information generated as a result of the
implementation of recommendations (e.g. for mitigation or additional research)
arising from the risk analysis is also captured; and
• guarantee that the results of the risk analysis are communicated in a format that is
clear and useful to individuals and organizations who use the information in their
decision-making processes.
Of these eight objectives, the last is by far the most complex and challenging
undertaking, because the groups receiving the information can have very different
levels of understanding of the subject area and its perceived and real risks. Therefore,
a high degree of flexibility is required to facilitate communication between scientists,
planners, managers, regulators, developers and the public at both the governmental and
local levels. It is almost impossible, without empirical testing, to predict the effects that
effective communication will have on people’s responses. Experts and laypersons alike
often face difficulties associated with communication on subjects related to choice, risk
or change. The process of risk communication, therefore, also involves educational
steps in order to assess and respond to risks and benefits appropriately (Fischhoff and
Downs, 1997).
CONCLUSIONS
Traditional risk analysis deals primarily with the human health concerns of various
anthropogenic activities, but this approach has now been broadened to encompass a
wide range of environmental concerns. Numerous protocols exist for estimating the
human health risks associated with various hazards, and there are an increasing number
for the analysis of environmental risks arising as a result of human activity.
There are a number of environmental hazards associated with aquaculture operations.
The risk analysis framework is useful for identifying, evaluating and addressing
environmental hazards associated with aquaculture, however, there are clearly a
number of constraints and issues to consider:
• The potential hazards from aquaculture and their impacts depend upon the
species, culture system and operations management practices, and other non-
technical factors such as human capacity and institutional capacity.
• The likelihood of hazards becoming undesirable consequences is difficult to
quantify given present knowledge and the lack of tools. The wide range of
environmental hazards related to aquaculture requires a wide range of tools for
risk assessment and skills among the people concerned.
• The effective use of risk analysis in aquaculture will also require effective
communication and explanation of how risk analysis can be effectively applied
to aquaculture issues, for government and industry stakeholders involved with
aquaculture.
RECOMMENDATIONS
A number of recommendations arise from this overview of the use of risk analysis to
address environmental issues in aquaculture:
• There are presently limited experiences and case studies associated with the more
complex ecological risk analyses as applied to aquaculture. Promotion of case
studies and sharing of experiences are needed.
• The information on risk analysis that could be applied to aquaculture is scattered
across the literature, from peer review to grey literature. A practical manual would
be useful to assist risk analysis practitioners in the sector and to raise awareness on
useful applications.
• The understanding of some key issues (e.g. risks associated with aquaculture and
ecosystem functions, use of trash fish) is still limited. As far as possible, simple
tools should be developed for the different hazards concerned with aquaculture.
• The need for developing and demonstrating cost-effective risk management
systems for small aquaculture operations is apparent.
• Capacity-building in all aspects of environmental risk analysis for aquaculture is
needed.
• Risk analysis has a potentially important role in policy setting but to be successful
needs the institutional roles and responsibilities should be carefully considered.
• A major challenge is to apply practical risk analysis methods to the small-scale
aquaculture sector.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors acknowledge the valuable contributions in the preparation of this
paper from two reviewers and the participants of the Rayong workshop.
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121
Introduced marine species risk

assessment – aquaculture
Marnie L. Campbell and Chad L. Hewitt

Australian Maritime College
National Centre for Marine Conservation and Resource Sustainability
PO Box 2276, Rosebud
3939 Victoria, Australia
[email protected]
[email protected]
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ABSTRACT
Risk assessment is a tool that has many applications in marine biosecurity. Its application
to aquaculture has only recently moved from the protective standpoint of animal
health (i.e. the World Organisation for Animal Health, OIE) to examining introduced
species risks. Risks from aquaculture include use of non-native species as target stocks
in aquaculture; the potential for introductions of hitchhiker (associate) species when
importing new stocks; the use of non-native live, fresh or frozen feed stocks and the
movement of aquaculture equipment. In contrast, the risks to aquaculture from marine
bioinvasions from other sources (including other aquaculture operators) include
pathogens, parasites, biofouling and harmful algal blooms. Herein, we present two types
of risk assessment (non-probabilistic decision-trees and a qualitative/semi-quantitative
organism impact assessment) that are currently used in the marine biosecurity system
in New Zealand and Chile, but are readily applicable to other introduced species risk
scenarios. These methods do not rely on quantitative risk assessment methods because
sufficient quantitative data are often lacking for introduced marine species work.
However, quantitative data can be used within the assessments to identify likelihoods or
consequence.
INTRODUCTION
Introduced marine species pose a significant threat to the native biodiversity, economy,
sense of connectedness to the marine ecosystem and spirituality of individual countries.
As such, the management of such threats has high priority at international, regional and
national scales. The management of introduced species risk is often undertaken under
the policy/management umbrella of biosecurity (biological security against the impacts
of introduced species). Biosecurity is managed before or at the border in the form of
quarantine, and post-border where both intentional and unintentional incursions are
evaluated to undertake response, surveillance and monitoring.
Marine biosecurity has recently been identified by a number of international, regional
and national bodies as a matter of significant urgency. Marine invasions are increasing
in a number of regions throughout the world through a variety of different vectors

such as shipping, recreational and fishing vessel movements, aquaculture, live food
and aquarium trade. Shipping has been considered to be the most significant vector of
invasions; however, aquaculture associated introductions have contributed the second
largest number of invaders across several regions of the world. The contribution of
aquaculture to new marine invasions is likely to increase with the global diversification
and acceleration of aquaculture production, particularly in regions of the world where
little production is occurring.
The need to pragmatically identify the relevant risks for management consideration
is paramount given the significance and increasing perception of threat that marine
invasions present to marine environmental, economic, social and cultural values,
coupled with the reduction of available funds for managing the marine environment.
Risk analysis is used to determine how often an event may occur and what the
consequences would be of such an event. Within Australia and New Zealand, standards
exist that provide best practice for risk management (Australian and New Zealand
Standard Risk Management AS/NZ4360:2004).
Marine biosecurity risks associated with aquaculture activities can be differentiated
as risks from aquaculture associated invasions and risks to aquaculture from marine
biological invasions from other sources. Risks from aquaculture include the use of
non-native species as target stocks in aquaculture; the potential for introductions of
hitchhiker (associate) species when importing new stocks; the use of non-native live,
fresh or frozen feed stocks and the movement of aquaculture equipment. In contrast,
the risks to aquaculture from marine bioinvasions from other sources (including other
aquaculture operators) includes pathogens, parasites, biofouling and harmful algal
blooms.
In this context, a number of relevant risk assessment methods exist; however,
these follow the classic risk analysis framework. The risk management standard
(AS/NZ4360:2004) can be summarized in four steps: (i) establishing the context; (ii)
identifying the risk (what are the hazards); (iii) assessing the risks (risk analysis and
risk evaluation); and (iv) treating the risks, and assumes that a decision external to the
risk analysis concerning identification of the end-point of the risk assessment and the
Acceptable Level of Risk (ALOR) occurs.
AQUACULTURE IN A MARINE BIOSECURITY CONTEXT

As the world’s population increases, food security (e.g. secure access to sufficient,
safe and nutritious food for all people, at all times (Maxwell and Frankenberger, 1992;
FAO, 2002) has become an important goal for many nations, and consequently it
has emerged on the agenda of many non governmental organizations (NGOs) and
intergovernmental agencies (e.g. FAO, 2002, 2003; Southgate, Graham and Tweeten,
2007). Increased population growth puts pressure on our environment via (over)
consumption of resources (Barrett, 1992; Krautkraemer, 1995), which in turn places
additional demand on our agriculture and fisheries to increase production rates. A
bleak outcome has been suggested that food demand will outstrip availability by 2020
(Pinstrup-Andersen and Pandya-Lorch, 1998).
World fisheries are an important global food source (Kent, 1997; Pinstrup-Andersen
and Pandya-Lorch, 1998; Tidwell and Allan, 2001), providing almost 95 billion tonnes
of food in 2000 (FAO, 2002). Yet total foodfish production is unable to keep up with
the rate of global demand and production is decreasing at a global per capita rate (FAO,
2002). It is estimated that up to 70 percent of the world’s marine fisheries are already
overexploited (Pinstrup-Andersen and Pandya-Lorch, 1998; Enger and Smith, 2006),
with depletion of stocks outpacing the ability of regulatory agencies to respond (Berkes
et al., 2006). In response to this growing demand, global aquaculture has grown swiftly
over the past 50 years (Ahmed and Lorica, 2002; FAO, 2002). Thus aquaculture is now
seen as a mechanism to increase food security while helping to alleviate pressure on wild
capture fisheries and supporting local communities (Pinstrup-Andersen and Pandya-
Lorch, 1998; Tidwell and Allan, 2001; Ahmed and Lorica, 2002; Tlusty, 2002).
Intensification within this industry has lead to a number of impacts such as increased
eutrophication (Gowen, 1994), antibiotics entering waterbodies (Lalumera et al., 2004),
the intentional and accidental introduction of non-native species (Economidis et al.,
2000; Tlusty, 2002; Chapman, Miller and Coan, 2003), impacts on predators (Crowl,
Townsend and Macintosh, 1992), the increased use of fishmeal that is derived from wild
fish stocks (Kautsky et al., 1997; Naylor et al., 2000; Tidwell and Allan, 2001; Tlusty,
2002) and the conversion of mangrove forests (highly productive natural systems) into
aquaculture ponds (Tidwell and Allan, 2001; Seto and Fragkias, 2007).
Typically, aquaculture uses either native species (a species that has lived in an area
where it has been present in geologic time or to which it arrived through nonhuman-
mediated means) or introduced species (a species that has been recognizably transported
by the agency of humans to a new biological region where it previously did not exist
(sensu Carlton, 1996) as the target crop. For example, both the red and green abalone
(Haliotis rufescens and H. discus hannai, respectively) were introduced to Chile in
1977 and 1982 for aquaculture purposes that target poverty alleviation (abalone is
not consumed by the local community but instead is sold on the world market; A.
Brown personal communication). The Chilean cultured abalone industry has been
very successful and is now ranked 5th as a global producer (Flores-Aguilar et al., 2007).
Abalone in this region is potentially a serious space competitor to the native and locally
eaten predatory gastropod Concholepas concholepas, and the environmental, economic
and social threats are recognized by the Chilean Government (Hewitt, Campbell
and Gollasch, 2006). However, the societal benefits of abalone aquaculture, through
poverty alleviation and economic diversification, are seen to outweigh the costs of
using an introduced species in this instance.
In some instances introduced species are also used as a source of live feed for
aquaculture (Lavens and Sorgeloos, 1996; Campbell, 2007). For example, microalgal
species such as Isochrysis sp., Pavlova lutheri, Chaetoceros muelleri, C. calcitrans,
Nannochloropsis oculata, Skeletonema costatum and Tetraselmis suecica are used in
aquaculture, and a variety of strains from various regions of the world are readily
available for purchase online.1 At present the use of live aquaculture feeds poses a
great risk to the natural environment because it represents a typically unregulated
mechanism for the introduction of non-native species (Campbell, 2007). As such, live
aquaculture feeds represent a “silent-sleeper” that may pose significant risks to the
environment and ultimately, to the economy.
In contained aquaculture situations, the use of introduced species for target stocks
poses a low risk to the environment, as the probability of release into the surrounding
environment can be managed in such a fashion as to make it minimal. Yet many
aquaculture situations are not contained (e.g. shrimp pond aquaculture in Thailand
(Dierberg and Kiattisimkul, 1996), abalone culture in Chile (Flores-Aguilar et al., 2007)
or managed and regulated in such a fashion as to provide sufficient assurances that the
use of introduced species will not contaminate the local environment, creating a greater
risk. In general, introduced species pose a significant threat to the native biodiversity
and economic and social well being of all countries (Lubchenco et al., 1991, Pimentel
et al., 2000; Hewitt and Campbell, 2007). As such, the management of such threats has
high priority at international, national and regional scales.
The use of introduced species in aquaculture complicates the social benefits received
from aquaculture (food security and poverty alleviation) and must be weighed against
1
For example, at http://www.cawthron.org.nz/seafood-safety-biotechnology/micro-algae-culture-
collection.html; http://www.marine.csiro.au/microalgae/aquacul.html.
the impacts (costs) that introduced species may have if released into the natural
environment (Hewitt, Campbell and Gollasch, 2006). A tool that is commonly used to
assess the risk an introduced species poses to an area is risk analysis.
Risk analysis has become a popular tool for management because pragmatic
decisions can be made that provide a balance between competing environmental and
socio-economic interests, despite the limited availability of information. For example
in New Zealand, risk analysis an integral component of the marine biosecurity system
(Figure 1).
In this paper we describe the use of risk assessment in marine biosecurity (management
of introduced marine species). We present pre-border (quarantine and import health
standards) and post-border (surveillance and incursion response) examples of where
risk analysis has been applied in a marine biosecurity context. Within an aquaculture
context, introduced species can cause impacts to aquaculture facilities (including target
species), or aquaculture can cause impacts to the natural environment via the use of
FIGURE 1
The New Zealand marine biosecurity risk model
Surveys
Genetics/
taxonomy Vectors and pathways
Biogeography/
distributions
Biological/Ecological Monitoring
Advice Restoration
Mitigation
Political Imperatives
International obligations
National legislation
Societal values
Environmental
Biosecurity
Economic
management
Social
Cultural
Risk
asessment
Risk
management
Management Vector management

Regulations
Actions
Rapid response
Monitoring
Stakeholder
consultation
introduced target marine species, introduced non-target marine species (referred to as

“hitchhikers”), introduced live feed species and the inadvertent spread of introduced
species via equipment transfer. This paper concentrates on the potential impacts that
aquaculture may have on the natural environment through the use of introduced species
and as such applies a precautionary approach from a Convention on Biological Diversity
(CBD) ethos (i.e. it is preferable to make the mistake of denying entry to a non-pest
than to allow entry of a pest, because a decision to admit a species is usually irreversible)
instead of a World Trade Organization (WTO) ethos (i.e. it is preferable to allow trade
unless there is a demonstrable and scientifically valid reason for not doing so).
RISK ASSESSMENT IN A MARINE BIOSECURITY CONTEXT

Risk analysis as applied in marine biosecurity consists of four processes: risk assessment
(the process of characterizing risk), risk management (the process of deciding what to
do about risk), risk communication (the process of explaining risk) and risk policy (a
meta-topic that spans across all processes and involves the development of regulatory
guidelines). In a marine biosecurity context, risk assessment consists of five steps:
• identifying end-points,
• identifying hazards,
• determining likelihood,
• determining consequences and
• calculating risk.
This process is similar to the risk management standard (AS/NZ4360:2004) used
in Australia and New Zealand (Standards Australia, 2000, 2004). This risk assessment
process is explained below from a marine biosecurity perspective and is based upon a
semiquantitative risk assessment procedure used by the authors to capture stakeholder
and expert perceptions in a number of risk assessments across several developed and
developing countries.
Identifying end-points
The end-point of the risk analysis is a critical stage in scoping the context of the
assessment and determines the detail of consequence analysis to be used. Typically
risk analyses of unintentional introductions associated with target species, feed stocks
and movement of equipment would consider quarantine end-points – that is, any
unpermitted breach of the border. In contrast, the intentional importation of non-native
species as target species for aquaculture or for food stocks will require an assessment
of potential impacts through release. At this step an acceptable level of risk (ALOR)
must be determined externally via socio-political imperatives, to set a benchmark by
which all risk assessment outcomes are measured. By determining ALOR externally,
transparency and consistency in the decision-making process is maintained.
Identifying hazards
Hazards in marine biosecurity are non-native species that are requested for importation
for aquaculture purposes and will cause a risk. These species are typically identified
pre-border through examination of their presence in the source region from which
the intended transfer will occur, coupled with a history of invasions in other regions, a
demonstration of impacts and an evaluation of physiological compatibility between the
species and the receiving region. For transfers of equipment, standardized import risk
assessments will aid in identifying the association of species in the source region with
the transport pathway on the basis of duration and timing (seasonality) of exposure,
and conditions and duration of transfer that might restrict or limit survival of species
present on or in the equipment.2
2
See, for example, http://www.biosecurity.govt.nz/imports/animals/standards/anieqpic.all.htm.
TABLE 2a
Consequence matrix: environment, as defined by the subcomponents and Including
biodiversity, species, habitats, natural character, aesthetics, etc.
Descriptor Environmental impacts from introduced species
Insignificant • Environment reduction is minimal (<10%) compared to loss from other human-
mediated activities
• Reductions in environment subcomponents are not readily detectable (<10% variation)
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in days; no discernible
change in the environment
Minor • Environment reduction is <20% compared to loss from other human-mediated
activities
• Reductions in environment subcomponents are <20%
• Environment reductions and area of introduced species impact is small compared to
known areas of distribution (<20%)
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in days to months; no
loss of keystone species populations, no discernible change in geological form and
function; no local extinctions
Moderate • Environment reduction is <30% compared to loss from other human-mediated
activities
• Environment reduction and area of introduced species impact is moderate compared
to known area of distribution (<30%)
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in less than a year; loss of
at least one keystone species or population, loss of geological form and function, no
loss of primary producers; local extinction events
Major • Environment reduction is <70% compared to loss from other human-mediated
activities
• Environment reduction and area of introduced species impact is small compared to
known area of distribution (<70%); likely to cause local extinction
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in less than a decade; loss
of several keystone species or populations, changes in trophic levels, loss of primary
producer populations, loss of geological form and function; multiple local extinction
events; one regional extinction
Significant • Environment reduction is >70% compared to loss from other human-mediated
activities
• Reductions in environment subcomponents are >70%
• Environment reduction and area of introduced species impact is small compared to
known area of distribution (>70%); likely to cause local extinction
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is not expected; loss of multiple
species or populations causing significant local extinctions and loss of trophic levels,
potential trophic cascades resulting in significant changes to ecosystem structure,
alteration to biodiversity patterns and changes to ecosystem function, loss of
geological form and function; global extinction of at least one species
Source: Modified from Campbell, 2005.
Determining likelihood
The likelihood (or probability) of an event (intentional or unintentional release of a
non-native species) occurring is determined using a standardized likelihood matrix
(Table 1). The event is defined as an incursion (intentional or unintentional release of
a species) when using a quarantine end-point or as an impact when using an impact
end-point. Likelihood measures are typically represented as qualitative descriptions
(ranging from rare to almost certain), or they can be represented as a probability.
To determine the likelihood for introduced target, non-target and feed species used
in aquaculture the propagule strength, the likelihood of inoculation and establishment,
and the likelihood of impacts are assessed. To assess the threat from equipment
movement, the exposure of the equipment to the introduced species is assessed by
determining the volumes or amount of exposure (frequency of exposure) and the
timing of exposure (seasonality).
Determining consequences
Consequence is determined via a number of different mechanisms. Typically in
marine biosecurity a semiquantitative approach is used to capture stakeholder and
expert perceptions and is combined with available quantitative data. Quantitative risk
TABLE 2b
Consequence matrix: economy as defined by the subcomponents and including primary and
secondary industry, tourism, education, intrinsic value, etc.
Descriptor Economic impacts from introduced species
Insignificant • Reduction in national income from introduced species impact shows no discernible change
• No discernable change in strength of economic activities
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in days
Minor • Reduction in national income from introduced species impact is <1%
• Reduction of strength in individual economic activities is <1%
• Economic activity is reduced to 99% of its original area (spatial context) within New
Zealand
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in days to months; no loss
of any economic industry
Moderate • Reduction in national income from introduced species impact is 1–5%
• Reduction of strength in individual economic activities is 1–5%
• Economic activity is reduced to less than 95% of its original area (spatial context) within
New Zealand
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in less than a year with the
loss of at least one economic activity
Major • Reduction in national income from introduced species impact is 5–10%
• Reduction of strength in individual economic activities is 5–10%
New Zealand
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in less than a decade with
the loss of at least one economic activity
Significant • Reduction in national income from introduced species impact is >10%
• Reduction of strength in individual economic activities is >10%
the New Zealand
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is not expected with the loss of
multiple economic activities
TABLE 2c
Consequence matrix: social as defined by the subcomponents and including aesthetics, family,
individual and cultural activities, learning, etc.
Descriptor Social Impacts from Introduced Species
Insignificant • Social activity reduction is minimal (<1%)
• No discernable change in strength of social activities
Minor • Social activity reduction is <10%
• Reduction of strength in separate social activities is <10%
• Social activity is reduced to less than 90% of its original area (spatial context) within
the region
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in days to months; no loss
of any social activities
Moderate • Social activity reduction is <20%
the region
• Social activity reduction is restricted to the region of incursion/impact
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in less than a year and loss
of at least one tourism activity
Major • Social activity reduction is <40%
the region
• Social activity is reduced in neighbouring regions
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in less than a decade and
loss of at least one tourism activity
Significant • Social activity reduction is >40%
• Reduction of strength in separate social activities is >40%
the region
• Social activity is reduced in neighbouring countries
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is not expected and loss of multiple
tourism activities
TABLE 2d
Consequence matrix: cultural as defined by the subcomponents and e.g. using New Zealand
Maori values such as whakapapa (creation), wai tapu (sacred waters), waiora (spiritual waters),
wai kino (tainted or bad waters), mahinga kai (food gathering areas)
Descriptor Cultural impacts from introduced species
Insignificant • Cultural activity reduction is minimal (<1%)
• No discernable change in strength of cultural activities
Minor • Cultural activity reduction is <10%
• Reduction of strength in separate cultural activities is <10%
• Cultural activity is reduced to less than 90% of its original area (spatial context)
within the region
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in days to months, no
loss of any social activities
Moderate • Cultural activity reduction is <20%
within the region
• Cultural activity reduction is restricted to the region of incursion/impact
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in less than a year and
loss of at least one tourism activity
Major • Cultural activity reduction is <40%
within the region
• Cultural activity is reduced in neighbouring regions
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is expected in less than a decade
and loss of at least one tourism activity
Significant • Cultural activity reduction is >40%
• Reduction of strength in separate cultural activities is >40%
within the region
• Cultural activity is reduced in neighbouring countries
• If the introduced species was removed, recovery is not expected and loss of multiple
tourism activities
Source: Modified from Campbell, 2005
assessment is not common in a management context (although see Hayes and Hewitt,
1998; Hewitt and Hayes, 2001) because the data requirements are onerous, especially
considering that little information is available for many introduced marine species
impacts.
Introduced species impacts can affect a range of values (includes both use and
non-use values). Hence, consequence matrices have been developed across four
core values (environmental, economic, social and cultural) that explicitly delineate
rankings of impact (consequence) from insignificant to significant (or catastrophic) to
aid stakeholder and expert discussion (Tables 2a-d). These matrices provide multiple
descriptions of impact at the various ranks to provide guidance in determining level of
impact.
Thus, to assess the impacts of using introduced target, non-target and feed species in
aquaculture, the impacts to core values are first identified (through expert opinion and
data) and then evaluated. The probable impact to a region is then calculated for each
introduced species. Finally, risk maps can be developed that evaluate the introduced
species potential distribution if released, the species likely impacts and the core values.
The resulting product of likelihood and consequence provides the risk ranking that is
then compared against the ALOR identified through the external process.
Calculating risk
Estimated risk is assessed for each core value against a standard risk matrix (Table 3).
Risk is described in qualitative terms, ranging from negligible to extreme. Uncertainty
is represented by presenting a range of estimated risk for a core value. The outcomes
of the risk assessment feed into a risk management process, which is simplistically
summarized in Table 4.
EXAMPLES
Examples of relevant applications of marine biosecurity risk assessments are provided
where the semi-quantitative procedure has been employed.
Pre-border examples
Typically, pre-border impacts from aquaculture are focussed on aquatic animal health
standards developed by the World Organisation for Animal Health.3 These standards
are focussed on animal disease only and ignore other threats that an imported
introduced species may have on the receiving environment. Thus, the impact from
the release of an introduced species is rarely evaluated. In Chile, the government has
developed an iterative import system that defines acceptable and unacceptable levels of
risk and assesses both the risk associated with a release of an introduced species and the
cost:benefits associated with farming the species (A. Brown, pers. comm.; Campbell,
in press). The Chilean assessment covers all core values and hence the environment is
evaluated against the socio-economic aspects.
Live feed species for aquaculture can also be assessed through the import health
standards. In some circumstances these species are omitted from the process due to
regulation loopholes that allow species to be given import permission (permitted)
before undergoing a rigorous risk assessment. Examples of instances where import
health standards have failed to protect the native environment because the marine
species standards were naive (due to a poor understanding of marine species biology)
or lacked a marine biosecurity expertise input include the importation of fish bait that
led to the herpes virus outbreak along southern Australia, resulting in large fish kills
(Griffin et al., 1997).
In New Zealand prior to 1996, 85 percent of importations of microalgae (used for
multiple purposes including aquaculture live feed source) did not use containment or
transition facilities, of which 39 percent of these importations were released directly
into the marine environment (Campbell, 2007). Also, a large proportion of records (46
percent of cases) were insufficient in recording whether containment or release of the
TABLE 3
Risk matrix
Consequence
Likelihood
Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Significant
Rare N L L M M
Unlikely N L M H H
Possible N L H H E
Likely N M H E E
Almost Certain N M E E E
Legend: N-negligible; L – low; M – moderate; H – high; E - extreme
TABLE 4
Simplified risk management process
Risk Likely scientific and management action(s) Reporting
Negligible Nil Nil
Low None specific Required
Moderate Specified scientific and management activities required Required
High Possible increases to scientific and management activities required Required
Extreme Additional scientific and management activities required Required
3
Formerly the Office international des épizooties (OIE); http://www.oie.int/eng/normes/en_acode.
htm?e1d10
TABLE 5
The risk Didymosphenia geminata poses to the New Zealand core values. Likelihood is derived
from Table 3 and consequence is derived from Table 4
Stakeholder group region
Southland Top of the Hawkes Bay
South
L C R L C R L C R
Environment Likely Significant E Possible Major H Possible Major H
Economic Likely Significant E Possible Significant E Possible Significant E
Social Likely Major E Possible Moderate H Possible Significant E
Cultural Likely Major E Possible Significant E Possible Major H
Legend: L – likelihood; C – consequence; R – risk; E – extreme risk; H – high risk
Source: Campbell, 2005
imported species occurred (Campbell, 2007). Prior to 1996, risk assessments did not
occur for importations of microalgae, with a permitting process that collected data but
did not strenuously assess risk being used. In 1996, the Hazardous Substances and New
Organism (HSNO) Act was passed. An outcome of this new legislation was that all new
organisms imported to New Zealand should have been assessed via a risk assessment
process undertaken by another government ministry. Yet risk assessments still only
occurred on an ad hoc basis (personal observation) and were not fully implemented
unless a member of the Marine Biosecurity team (different government ministry) was
requested to undertake such an analysis.
To improve this process, a microalgae non-probabilistic decision-tree (Figure 2)
was developed to assess whether importations of microalgae should occur and to
determine the risk each importation posed to New Zealand’s aquatic environment. This
system was implemented in 2005 and works efficiently if the government ministries
communicate effectively to ensure that an expert in marine biosecurity is involved in
the risk assessment process.
Such failures of the pre-border biosecurity system represent an extreme management
risk but also highlight how unknown vectors (live feed) can pose a threat in an aquaculture
system, although the system is regulated and meets current biosecurity standards.
Post-border example
In a post-border situation, an introduced species has been released from the aquaculture
facility either unintentionally or intentionally and the end-point being assessed is
impact. Risk assessments in this context determine the level of geographic spread and
the level of impact to core values from the released introduced species. An example of
a successful method used to assess risk in such circumstances is an Organism Impact
Assessment (OIA). OIAs have been used in New Zealand to assess the risk of spread
of the introduced diatom Didymosphenia geminata (Campbell, 2005), which was most
likely introduced to New Zealand via recreational fishing equipment. OIAs have also
been used to assess the risk posed by the invasive ascidian Styela clava (Kluza et al.,
2006) and to assess the threat of introduced species to high-value areas such as Marine
Protected Areas (Campbell, 2006).
OIAs work by determining the likely geographic spread (likelihood) and impact
(consequence) of a released species. To determine a species’ potential spread, biological
(e.g. environmental tolerances) and ecological (distribution and abundance) information
about the released species is collated for both its realized and fundamental niche. The
results of this analysis are placed into a geographic information system (GIS) to
illustrate the spatial extent of the threat. For example, the likely spread of D. geminata
in New Zealand, based on its fundamental niche, was 90 percent (26/29) of the river
systems across both the North and South Islands (Campbell, 2005). Likelihood was
then assessed against a standardized likelihood matrix (Table 1). Based on the species
likely spread, core values (environmental, economic, social and cultural) are identified
in likely affected regions. Evaluation of impacts can then occur for values that overlap
with likely introduced species spread. Evaluation of impacts can be regionalized or
cover an entire country.
In the D. geminata example, evaluations were regionalized over three zones, two
in the South Island and one in the North Island of New Zealand and were examined
for the 26 rivers that would likely be affected. At the time, very little literature was
published on the impacts that this species had on the environment, with conflicting
biological data also existing. Hence, a Delphic approach (exploring stakeholder and
expert opinions and beliefs) was used to engage stakeholder groups (consisting of a
cross section of society) from the three regions. Stakeholder groups determined the
perceived value of each river and then the perceived change in value if D. geminata was
introduced to the river (Atkinson and Rapley, 2005).
Uncertainty in the results was reflected by using ranges of peoples’ value change. In
some instances changes in perceived value could be illustrated using dollars (e.g. against
economic core values), but in other instances changes in value were illustrated using a
scale of low to medium (cultural values). The outcome of the perceived change in value
for each core value was then assessed against the consequence matrices (Tables 2 a-d).
The end result was that for the three regions a level of risk was determined based on
heuristic methods (Table 5; Campbell, 2005), and from this outcome decision-makers
could determine if an eradication attempt should be made.
CONCLUSIONS
In conclusion, marine biosecurity risk assessments follow standardized risk procedures
and can include qualitative, semi-quantitative and fully quantitative methods depending
on the complexity required for decision making. Due to significant data limitations in
the marine environment, particularly with regards to baseline biological data from
trading partners, semi-quantitative and qualitative assessments remain more tractable.
The precautionary approach is employed for risk assessments of non-native species
whereby the species is assumed to be guilty until proven innocent. In practical terms,
this translates into an assumption of harm where information may not exist, particularly
when importing a new species for release. Target species Organism Impact Assessments
have proven extremely useful in identifying management options, even following an
incursion event, however it should be noted that the ability to predict which species
will invade or the potential impact of a species once it is introduced remains poor.
Lastly, the use of non-native food stocks as live, fresh or fresh-frozen material
is likely to represent the “silent sleeper” of aquaculture-associated invasions. The
unmanaged use of non-native microalgae, protists and invertebrates in flow-through
hatcheries and open-environment farms is likely to have caused a large number of
unrecognized invasions throughout the globe. These food stocks may also represent
a poorly managed pathway of pathogen importation that can affect both cultured and
wild stocks, as has been the case in the Australian and New Zealand pilchard kill in
the mid 1990s.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to thank the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO) for their invitation to participate in the aquaculture risk analysis
workshop. We would also like to acknowledge the Marine Biosecurity Education
Consortium for funding our participation. Finally, we would like to acknowledge
and thank Imene Meliane from the International Union for the Conservation of
Nature (IUCN), Christine Reed and Dan Kluza from Biosecurity New Zealand, and
Alex Brown from SubPesca, Chile for their helpful discussions on risk in a marine
biosecurity context.
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135
Guidelines for ecological risk

assessment of marine fish
aquaculture1,2
Colin E. Nash
NMFS Manchester Research Station
PO Box 130
Manchester, WA 98353, United States of America
[email protected]
Peter R. Burbridge
University of Newcastle (Rtd.)
The Orchard, House of Ross, Comrie
Perthshire PH6 2JS, Scotland, United Kingdom
[email protected]
John K. Volkman
CSIRO Marine Research
GPO Box 1538
Hobart, Tasmania TAS 7001, Australia
[email protected]
Nash, C.E., Burbridge, P.R. and Volkman, J.K. 2008. Guidelines for ecological risk
assessment of marine fish aquaculture. In M.G. Bondad-Reantaso, J.R. Arthur and
R.P. Subasinghe (eds). Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture. FAO
Fisheries and Aquculture Technical Paper. No. 519. Rome, FAO. pp. 135–151.
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this paper is to exemplify a basic set of guidelines for risk managers and
other decision makers to use all information available to assess the different ecological
risks of marine fish aquaculture in a variety of marine ecosystems. Ten areas of substantive
risk in the interaction between marine fish aquaculture are perceived by the public and
public administrators to be of most concern. In this review three of the 10 areas of risk
are exemplified for their degree of potential adversity, together with their mitigation, in
an identical step-by-step process. These examples outline the approach for conducting a
risk assessment for all 10 perceived issues in the paper itself. With the help of a flowchart,
the template identifies biological end points or entities and their attributes, both locally
and far field, which might be affected for that respective area of risk; and appropriate
1
This paper is based on a NOAA document edited by the above authors, an outcome of an international
workshop held in April 2005 and participated by Kenneth M. Brooks (USA), Stefano Cataudella (Italy),
Brett R. Dumbauld (USA), William T. Fairgrieve (USA), John R. M. Forster (USA), Robert N. Iwamoto
(USA), David F. Jackson (Ireland), Sadasivam J. Kaushik (France), Michael B. Rust (USA), Philip A.D.
Secretan (England), Karl D. Shearer (USA), Ole J. Torrissen (Norway) and Masashi Yokota (Japan).
2
Outcome of the NOAA Fisheries Service Manchester Research Station International Workshop, 11–14
April 2005 and published in full as NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-NWFSC-71.
methodologies that can be used for measuring or monitoring the effects of exposure to
each specific risk. The paper also contains a biological overview of some respective risk,
and briefly discusses factors that may enhance or mitigate the risk’s occurrence. For the
benefit of risk managers and risk assessors in all parts of the world, the risks are framed in
a matrix to suggest different orders of relevance for their application in different climatic
zones.
INTRODUCTION
Few, if any, human interventions in the environment fail to have impact. In some
cases interventions are potentially so damaging that they must be eliminated. On the
other hand, the majority of human interventions are purposeful and designed to be of
benefit to humans, so it is necessary that they proceed responsibly, sharing equitably
in the use of nature’s vital resources. It is thus important that these interventions are
carefully managed with good stewardship to ensure that benefits can be achieved over
time frames of many decades.
Aquaculture, together with fisheries and agriculture, has long been a provider of
food for human consumption. For over three millennia it has been a necessary and
often the only source of animal protein for pastoral communities living at subsistence
levels. But within the last century, its history has dramatically changed, and science
and technology have propelled modern aquaculture into semi-intensive and intensive
farming systems. These systems have greatly increased its degree of exposure to the
environment. Consequently, although aquaculture remains a crucial cornerstone of
rural life in many countries, its modern practices and array of commercial end products
are, to the rest of the world, dependent more on human life-style decisions governed
by social choice.
Fortunately, an important factor in social choice as aquaculture emerges in the
twenty-first century is not only to minimize the impact of all human interventions
on the environment but also to sustain the existing integrity of its many ecosystems
in perpetuity. This has become a challenge to all resource-based industries, not only
marine aquaculture. There are innumerable aquatic ecosystems in which aquaculture
intervention is feasible. Each and every ecosystem has its own very specific and desired
values, and therefore for the stewards of these resources to set specific goals around
these values, it is necessary for them to know in advance 1) what integrity means for
each ecosystem and what specifically needs to be protected; and 2) which ecological
resources and processes have to be sustained and for what reason. Compared with that
of terrestrial ecosystems, comprehensive knowledge of aquatic ecosystems is severely
constrained. Partly this is because much of the ecosystem lies below water and is
thus not readily observable, but also the need for extensive environmental research of
marine ecosystems is only now becoming recognized in many countries.
Many aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems can be said to be equally fragile, but the
ecosystem components may differ as do the mechanisms available for remediation.
Most human interventions in aquatic ecosystems, such as mineral extraction, fishing and
now aquaculture, may induce more lasting far-field effects unless properly managed.
Nonetheless, these and any other industries that integrate with open waters, such as
tourism and recreational boating, all have a right to exist equitably as stakeholders. The
effects on the aquatic ecosystem by one should not eliminate the existence of another,
unless selection has been an informed public choice.
In enabling aquaculture to share aquatic resources responsibly, the stewards of these
resources are faced with many options. Invariably these options cannot be quantified
adequately, and thus managers must estimate their potential ecological risks through
individual risk assessments. Nonetheless, although ecological risks are a paramount
concern, the final decision is frequently decided by other factors brought to bear
Box 1
Definition of participants in the risk assessment process
Risk manager – Any individual and organization having the responsibility or the
authority to take action or require action to mitigate an identified risk. Typically the
term describes a decision-maker in a government organization who has legal authority
to protect or manage a resource. However, a risk manager may be any interested party
who has the ability to take action to reduce or mitigate a risk; for example, the owner or
manager of an aquaculture facility.
Risk assessor – A professional who brings a needed expertise to a risk assessment
team from any number of relevant fields, including, for example, risk assessment,
marine ecosystems, coastal zone management, marine engineering, marine biology,
oceanography, aquaculture, fish nutrition, fish disease etc.
Stakeholders – Any individual, company or organization that has a direct or indirect
interest in, or could be affected by, an aquaculture operation.
by social choice, such as economic benefits to a local community or issues of public

health.
Purpose of the Guidelines Document

The purpose of this document is to provide guidelines for risk managers, risk asses-
sors and anyone involved in the risk assessment process (Box 1) to address risks to
the environment. All possible fields are listed in Box 1. The specific focus is on the
possible effects or impacts of finfish aquaculture, but with several caveats:
• The guidelines are limited only to the assessment of ecological risks. Although, as
noted, final decisions are invariably made by risk managers using a broader range
of factors, such assessments of economic risks and human health risks by any
intervention of aquaculture are not part of this work.
• The guidelines are applicable only to the risk assessment of marine fish aquaculture.
The diversity of aquaculture, with its many systems and practices producing more
than 200 species of aquatic animals and plants in a variety of fresh and saline
waters, is too much to consider in a single document. However, it is anticipated
that these guidelines will greatly simplify risk assessments in most other fields of
aquaculture.
• The guidelines are confined to the risk assessment of marine fish aquaculture
based on its effects on and not from other elements of the environment. Although
marine aquaculture is vulnerable to the degradation of water quality as a
consequence of poorly managed development in the coastal zone, most countries
have regulatory structures and guidelines in place to protect aquaculture, and in
time these standards will be improved by combining the risks to the environment
from all sources.
USING THE GUIDELINES DOCUMENT

Before any decisions can be made with regard to the siting or operation of a marine
aquaculture facility, the first responsibility of risk managers, and that includes both
managers of resources as well as managers of aquaculture operations, is to draw their
conclusions from all information provided by the risk assessors that a perceived risk
to a particular ecosystem has validity or not, and if so to estimate its degree of adverse
effect. This may or may not be a straightforward task. In some cases the information
reported to them by the risk assessors may be an excellent combination of field and
laboratory data to compare with recognized benchmarks of stress, while in others it
may be no more than the long-time experience of practitioners.
Box 2
Possible contents of a risk assessment report.
• Description of preliminary objectives and plans

• Description of environmental setting for the planned development
• Description of proposed aquaculture practice and species to be cultured
• Review of the conceptual model and assessment end points
• Discussion of major data sources and analytical procedures used
• Review of stressor response and exposure profiles
• Description of risk to assessment end points, including risk estimates and adversity
evaluations
• Review and summary of major areas of uncertainty, their direction, and approaches
used to address them, such as:
– Discussion of the degree of scientific consensus in key areas of uncertainty.
– Identification of major gaps and, where appropriate, indication of whether
gathering additional data would add significantly to the overall confidence in
assessment results
– Estimation of the risk probability by combining numerical data
– Discussion of science policy judgments or default assumptions used to bridge
information gaps and the basis for the assumptions
– Discussion of how elements of quantitative uncertainty analysis are embedded in
the estimate of risk
Irrespective of the final detail, it is important that the information is considered,

collected, analyzed, characterized and reported in a structured fashion. This ensures
that the risk assessment report is not only complete as far as it can be (Box 2), but
also that it can be compared directly with similar risk assessments made by other
individuals elsewhere.
These guidelines for the risk assessment of marine fish aquaculture attempt to
facilitate the work of risk assessors and risk managers to achieve these objectives. In
brief, the guidelines:
• identify the ten areas of substantive risk in the interaction between marine fish
aquaculture operations and the environment;
• identify the biological end points or entities and their attributes, both locally and
far field, that might be affected in those areas of risk;
• identify methodologies for measuring or monitoring the effects of exposure to
each area of risk;
• provide a common framework or step-by-step process to estimate the degree of
potential adversity of each area of risk, together with its mitigation; and
• provide a concept of the physical and environmental demands of marine fish
aquaculture sites, and a matrix to suggest different orders of relevance for the
application of each area of risk in different global ecosystems.
In planning a risk assessment, it is recommended that the risk managers and risk
assessors, together with others with experience in marine fish aquaculture, first review
the areas of risk identified as priorities in the guidelines, and establish their relevance
in their own geographic region and to the particular local ecosystem where marine
aquaculture facilities are to be sited. It is very probable that not all areas of risk will be
applicable to every development site, and therefore a matrix has been developed as part
of the guidelines to suggest some of the more common differences (see “Near-field and
Far-field Effects” subsection on page 10). For those that are important, the respective
templates described in Appendices A–J of NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-
NWFSC-71 (see Appendices list) can be used.
ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF MARINE FISH AQUACULTURE
Framework
For more than 20 years, countries have been developing national guidelines for
environmental risk assessment. At first their focus was predominantly on environmental
risks to a single species (humans) and one end point (human health), but later
nonhuman-oriented environmental risk assessments were included. These not only
considered the risk to entire communities and addressed any number of selected end
points, but they also included the possible effects of non-chemical stressors.
In order to accommodate the sudden burst of different views and approaches to
environmental risk assessment by its member countries, the United Nations (UN)
World Health Organization (WHO) developed a common analytical framework.
The WHO Framework is adopted here for developing Guidelines for Ecological Risk
Assessment of Marine Fish Aquaculture (NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-
NWFSC-71) because it provides a generic analytical framework that has been widely
reviewed and accepted by international experts in UN-sponsored workshops.
The WHO Framework (Figure 1) represents the scope of the guidelines for
undertaking ecological risk assessments. It represents a three-dimensional figure, with
planes surrounding the actual risk assessment to depict the total process. These planes
represent the continuum for all those who are involved in the decision-making process
and include not only the interactions between risk managers and risk assessors (the
scientific and technical experts), but also their interaction with stakeholders who may
be affected by any decision. For marine aquaculture, participating stakeholders are
typically the fish farmers and their trade associations, waterfront property owners,
FIGURE 1
The WHO framework for ecological risk assessment
Discussion
between
Risk Assessor PROBLEM FORMULATION
&
Risk Manager
(Planning)
PROBLEM
ANALYSIS Data
Acquisition,
Characterization Verification,
Characterization
of of and
Exposure Ecological Effects Monitoring
RISK CHARACTERIZATION
Discussion between the

Risk Assessor & Risk Manager
(Results)
RISK MANAGEMENT
recreational users of waters, other fishing and aquaculture bodies, and environmental
advocacy groups. The extent of stakeholder interaction, and at what point it is
considered in the decision-making process, is the prerogative of the decision-maker,
and varies from one country to another in accordance to the regulatory, legal and
decision-making climate. Furthermore, stakeholders might perform their own risk
assessments with or without the help of technical consultants, with differences arguable
in court.
The risk assessment process is itself divided into three segments. These segments
represent three distinct phases of work, but once again there is a continuum of interplay
between the persons involved.
The following sections describe in broad terms a generic risk assessment process
but without direct application to any specific category of risk. Detailed processes
can be found for all the principal categories of risk from marine fish aquaculture in
Appendices A–J of NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-NWFSC-71.
Problem formulation for marine fish aquaculture (Phase 1)

The first phase is problem formulation, or the identification of key factors to be
considered in the risk assessment. Here all the necessary plans are made by the
risk managers and risk assessors to determine how the analysis will be performed.
These include, for example:
• the scope, focus and sources to be considered (such as the type of marine
aquaculture and species);
• the biological or ecological end points and their attributes that are the concern for
protection (such as sea grass preservation, maintenance of water quality, avoidance
of low dissolved oxygen, avoidance of eutrophication etc.);
• a conceptual model or diagram of how the culture system being assessed is
thought to be organized; and finally,
• the plan for analysing the information and conducting the rest of the assessment.
Problem formulation can be a long and difficult process. It depends on the degree of
familiarity with the particular field of aquaculture, how contentious are any issues and
finally, who is involved. Unfamiliar problems, such as the location of marine fish cages
in the migratory routes or breeding grounds of cetaceans, unquestionably take longer
to formulate compared with, say, the location of a land-based marine fish hatchery
adjacent to an existing recreational marina or fish processing plant.
Modern marine fish aquaculture has been evolving for almost 50 years. Consequently,
considerable experience has been building with regard to any impact on marine
ecosystems all over the world. Most of the practical knowledge and experience by
fish farmers themselves has never been recorded, although some has been documented
in gray literature, but a considerable volume of scientific and technical research can
now be found in peer-reviewed journals. With this growing background information
to draw on, it is possible for risk managers and risk assessors to undertake a very
comprehensive problem formulation.
For the purpose of these guidelines, the possible observed or perceived effects of
marine aquaculture have been summarized in ten categories (Table 1). Within these
broad designations it is not possible to include all the possible effects that might be
identifiable globally, and consequently the guidelines concentrate on the sources of
effects and the end points or entities of concern together with their attributes, of
known importance to the majority of marine ecosystems. A risk assessment can include
any number of other effects, but practical experience suggests that the ten categories
and their contents illustrated here provide a strong starting point. The biological end
points of these possible effects are generalized in the following paragraph.
Biological end points of marine fish aquaculture and their attributes can be
described in collective terms (such as the species abundance of the infauna), or very
TABLE 1
Categorization of observed or perceived effects associated with marine fish aquaculture and
the identifiable sources of the stressor
Effects Sources
1. Increased organic loading Particulate organic loading
Fish fecal material
Uneaten fish feed
Debris from biofouling organisms
Decomposed fish mortalities on the farm
Soluble organic loading
Dissolved components of uneaten feed
Harvest wastes (blood)
2. Increased inorganic loading Nitrogen and phosphorus from fish excretory products
Trace elements and micronutrients (e.g. vitamins) in fish fecal
matter and uneaten feed
3. Residual metals Zinc compounds in fish fecal material
Zinc compounds in uneaten feed
Copper compounds in antifouling treatments
4. The transmission of disease Indigenous parasites and pathogens
organisms Exotic parasites and pathogens
5. Residual therapeutants Treatment by inoculation
Treatment in feed
Treatment in baths
6. Biological interaction of escapes Unplanned release of farmed fish
with wild populations Unplanned release of gametes and fertile eggs
Cross infection of parasites and pathogens
Planned release of cultured fish for enhancement or ranching
7. Physical interaction with marine Entanglement with lost nets and other jetsam
wildlife Entanglement with nets in place, structures, moorings etc.
Attraction of wildlife species (fish, birds, marine mammals,
reptiles)
Predator control
8. Physical impact on marine habitat Buoyant fish containment structures and mooring lines
Anchors and moorings
9. Using wild juveniles for grow-out Harvest of target and nontarget species as larvae, juveniles and
subadults
10. Harvesting industrial fisheries for Increased fishing pressure on the shoaling small pelagic fish
fish feed populations
specifically by location (such as the discovery of giant tubeworms at hydrothermal

vents). They may also be assessed generally (such as by the presence of certain species
in the epifauna) or by specific measurements (such as by n, μg/g or μg/liter).
The end points identified in these guidelines for protection from marine fish
aquaculture activities may include:
• the species richness and abundance of the seston, nekton or infauna;
• the abundance of a specific species in the seston, nekton or infauna;
• the species richness and abundance of the epifauna;
• the abundance of a specific species in the epifauna;
• the abundance of a specific species of marine mammal, reptile or bird;
• the immune resistance of demersal and pelagic fishes;
• the number and fitness of individuals in the natural (conspecific) population;
• the fitness of individuals in another fish population; and
• the abundance of the industrial fisheries.
The choice of species may be guided by whether one is looking for a surrogate for
system stressors, system response or protection of some desirable biological attribute.
Thus, one might measure a toxic phytoplankton species because of the desire to
avoid blooms of harmful or nuisance species, or one might choose a species that is
indicative of degraded environmental condition (e.g. capitellid worms or the presence
of Beggiatoa spp. in sediments) or one might measure sea grass distribution because of
its high protection status.
Problem analysis for marine fish aquaculture (Phase 2)

Problem analysis is the second phase of risk assessment when all available scientific
information relevant to the issue is collected and applied. For the most part it is carried
out by technical experts. Problem analysis is divided into two parts. The first is the
analysis of exposure, which predicts or measures the spatial and temporal distribution
of a stressor and a point of concern; the second is the analysis of effects (sometimes
called the exposure response), which identifies and quantifies any adverse effects
caused by a stressor.
Characterizing the background of an aquaculture site

It is important to know the characterization of the marine site(s) where the stressor
originates and where it may have its adverse effects. Therefore, the first step is a baseline
survey or stock-taking of information about the near field and in some cases, the far
field. The survey is in two parts, namely, collecting information through a literature
search followed by assembling current information and data by field work.
Historical information
A valuable part of the baseline survey is a search of existing literature of water and
sediment quality parameters. These include, for example, data on water temperatures,
salinity, dissolved oxygen, stratification, bottom currents, water depth, background
nutrient concentrations, phytoplankton species and chlorophyll, sediment grain size
and organic matter content. In those cases where information is not available, then
a programme of data collection should be initiated to fill the gaps. It is hard to be
prescriptive about spatial and temporal scales of measurement, but measurement of
some water quality parameters may need to be taken on a weekly basis during seasons
of high phytoplankton productivity.
Some additional information might be available on the background levels of
contaminants in both the water and the sediments. These include, for example, metals,
and organics such as hydrocarbons, pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs),
polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) etc. This information is particularly
important (and more likely to be available) in near-shore coastal areas where there are
significant anthropogenic inputs from agricultural and urban areas. In open waters,
there is little potential for the accumulation or discharge of these types of contaminants,
and the need is reduced.
Finally, any documentation providing a broad description of the natural history
of the area, together with any reports or local knowledge of the potential for noxious
phytoplankton blooms or the prevalence and intensity of known parasites is potentially
useful. Information on the incidence of blooms and parasites is more likely if there are
commercial shellfish resources in the area.
Current information
A typical baseline survey of current information for the lease area will include most of
the items from the following checklist:
• Identification of sensitive habitats. These may include, for example, beds of
macroalgae and eelgrass, coral reefs, commercially valuable shellfish beds,
spawning grounds and breeding areas, migratory pathways of aquatic species,
rocky reef communities and all other structures valuable as nurseries. Such
habitats within 500 m of a proposed intensive farm site should be mapped, with
the intention of avoiding them whenever possible.
• The background physico-chemistry of the sediments. This may include, for
example, total volatile solids (TVS) or organic matter content, redox potential
(Eh), sediment grain size (SGS), free sulfide (S=) and the two inorganic metals
copper and zinc.
• An inventory of the species and abundance of the macrobenthic communities.

This may be carried out by stratification or by the type of habitat.
• The hydrographic variables, such as currents, tides and residence times, including
acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP) data collected over at least one lunar
cycle and bathymetry within 500 m of the proposed site.
• A profile of water quality, including temperature, salinity and the potential for
stratification as a function of season (pycnoclines and haloclines).
• A profile of primary productivity, including major species (including any toxic
species), chlorophyll (Chla), phaeophytin and dissolved oxygen (DO).
• If possible, underwater surveys recorded on a video or a series of photographs to
provide an overall, semiquantitative assessment of the benthic environment of the
site, especially in deep water.
• Finally, identification of activities by other resource users, such as marine
sanctuaries, marine protected areas, fishing grounds, recreational areas, navigational
channels, oil and mineral extraction, military training areas, approved dumping
grounds etc.
The grid on which this information for the baseline survey is to be collected depends
on the homogeneity of the system. A regression approach is recommended with single
samples collected at intervals on four orthogonal transects beginning at the center of
the proposed farm location. Samples should extend at least 500 m from the center. If
video surveys are conducted first, the grab collections can be focused in areas where
samples are possible, namely soft to mixed substrates. About 24 samples are adequate.
The profile of the macrobenthic community can be reduced in cost by using the
smaller petite ponar grab (with a 0.0225 m2 footprint) rather than the more standard
van Veen grab (0.1 m2).
Near-field and far-field effects

Effects of aquaculture interventions on the ecosystem are spatial and temporal. They
can be localized and immediate, or distant and sometime in the future. However, both
near-field and far-field effects have to be considered in the risk assessment process.
(a) Near-field effects

The near field can be defined as that area encompassing the limit of directly measurable
effects. In the marine environment, the majority of human interventions, such as sand
mining, dredging, drilling, waste disposal, fish processing, recreational boating etc., all have
instant near-field effects, particularly on the sediments and their benthic communities in
the immediate vicinity of the source. Consequently, because of the long history of these
activities in marine waters, the extent and diversity of their effects are well known. They
can be measured with accuracy and the particulate data and benthic biological data linked
in a number of empirical or mechanistic models to assess potential risk.
With regard to the relatively recent intervention of aquaculture in the marine
environment and its most localized and instant impact of wastes and contaminants
accumulating on the bottom sediment beneath fish enclosures or in solution, there is
a wealth of comparative information about the measurement of near-field effects on
which to draw. For example: 1) in terms of sedimented organic waste, the near field
describes that area in which statistically significant differences (t-tests, ANOVA etc.)
or significant clines (statistically significant coefficients on dependent variables in
linear or nonlinear regression analysis) in either physico-chemical or biological end
points associated with aquaculture-related effects can be demonstrated at the peak of
farm production; and 2) in terms of reduced concentrations of dissolved contaminants
or effects of metabolic waste, the near field describes that area in which statistically
significant increases or decreases in the end point of interest can be measured in
comparison with local reference conditions.
Because of the extent of good data, near-field effects are generally assessed using local
computer models to predict the deposition of organic material released by the producer.
The DEPOMOD computer modeling tool, for example, models benthic enrichment
effects by combining particle tracking with empirical relationships between the spatial
distribution of solids and changes in the structure of the benthic community.
Near-field effects are usually limited or managed by regulatory authorities setting
performance standards that are appropriate for the location or the region as a whole.
Typically, under the terms of a permit or license, the producer is responsible for
conducting the necessary monitoring and complying with the management practices
adopted to enable the performance standards to be met.
(b) Far-field effects

Far-field effects are those effects that occur outside that area where statistically significant
clines in relationship with the source cannot be measured. These are cumulative effects
that normally can only be detected by long-term monitoring programmes at locations
not directly influenced by local effects. Assessment of far-field effects associated with
aquaculture becomes increasingly important as the industry expands.
The maximum spatial extent of far-field effects is a hydrologic unit that includes all
inputs potentially affecting the unit. It may include, for example, a single bay, several
bays or an entire estuary or delta. Far-field effects become increasingly difficult to
measure in open bodies of water, such as those offshore where aquaculture may occur.
However, even in large open bodies of water the same definitions could be applied.
Because of the vast scope of far-field effects, their potential is normally best assessed
through computer models. These are monitored by consortiums of contributors to the
cumulative effects in coordination with some level of government. Management of far-
field effects is normally a public function in cooperation with all the contributors. With
regard to organic loading, for example, from a number of marine fish farms into a bay
10 km distant, the regulatory authority may set Total Maximum Daily Loads (TDML)
for the far field of interest (the bay), and apportion the TMDL to individual producers
or farm complexes. The authority then manages the far-field effects by manipulating
the respective TMDLs to meet one stated objective.
There is some concern about the far-field effects posed by pathogens that may
appear on one farm on the stock held in another. Indeed, the probability of pathogens
from one farm site spreading to another within x tidal cycles provides much of the basis
for licensing and management in some countries.
Risk characterization for marine fish aquaculture (Phase 3)

Risk characterization is the final phase when the two analyses of exposure and effects
are brought together. It is best performed using models developed to estimate effects
from hypothetical risks.
In a number of fields, such as the pharmaceutical industry or chemical engineering,
risk characterization can be straightforward. The point estimate of exposure is
compared with the point estimate of the threshold of effects, and if the ratio is greater
than one then an effect is assumed. It can be taken further with an exposure-response
model, when the distribution of the exposure and effects can be shown to accumulate
over a period of time. However, in the marine aquaculture industry the process of
risk characterization is complicated by the fact that most of the effects are interactive.
Such complexity could be dealt with by modeling, but quantifiable information
for many aspects of marine aquaculture is extremely scarce. Consequently, for risk
characterization the only recourse at present is either to make use of a mechanistic
model for a particular site, providing the assumptions are reasonable and that the
model can be adequately calibrated and validated, or to rely on all existing information
and especially the classical “dose and response” laboratory information.
In assessing a risk, it is important both to qualify and quantify, where possible,

the associated uncertainty. For example, the uncertainty could be described by
probabilistic factors, by semi-quantitative factors or by entirely qualitative factors,
such as high, medium or low. Whatever factors are chosen, it is important to include
the uncertainty with any risk assessment. In addition, it is important to explain any
assumptions that were used in the analysis, the scientific uncertainties, and their
strengths and weaknesses.
Risk characterization is carried out by scientific and technical experts, but it is not
limited to them. Risk assessors and risk managers are again actively involved in the
process, as during problem formulation. This is because issues might have arisen that
necessitate a reiteration of problem formulation and a repeat of the problem analysis.
Risk communication
A final responsibility for everyone involved in managing risk is risk communication.
This is an ongoing process at the local level and usually involves a government agency,
represented by risk managers, industry and other stakeholders, and the public at
large.
The objective of risk communication is to maximize the transparency of every
activity related to the risk through interaction with the broadest range of interested
parties (Figure 2). This objective includes risk identification, analysis, assessment,
implementation of the decision and subsequent monitoring. It is important that the
FIGURE 2
The process of risk communication for the project and the results
THE RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT

PROJECT RESULTS
RISK COMMUNICATION
Internal Planning and

Preparation
External Coordination External Interface with Public

and Collaboration (i) Meet, involve, listen and
(i) Peer review of results discuss with all stakeholders
(ii) Review and discuss with (ii) Distribute information
agencies and other credible through appropriate media
resources
Reiteration as Necessary
FINALIZING AND
IMPLEMENTING THE
DECISIONS
communication process is begun as soon as possible, preferably with an announcement

of the project itself.
Risk communication is carried out in a variety of ways. Productive communication
is invariably conducted at public hearings when, in theory, everyone listens carefully to
each other without any prejudgment of the issue. But this is not always the case, and it
is important for the risk managers representing government agencies at such hearings
to maintain public trust by their independence and impartiality. Good communication
is also achieved by regularly circulating published materials.
Some aspects of risk assessment are scientific and very technical, and therefore, it is
important that the data and all methods of collection, any models and assumptions that
have been applied and any conclusions drawn are reviewed by peers.
Monitoring for subsequent risk

Decisions can be made by the risk manager based on the historical and current
information gathered by the team of risk assessors and stakeholders. If the potential
risk is assessed as being unlikely or small, then the risk manager can authorize the
project to go ahead. However, it is important that the baseline does not change in such
a way that the risk can in fact occur at a later time, and therefore the risk manager
usually qualifies any decision with the requirement for the continual monitoring of
certain site parameters. The task of carrying out the monitoring programme may be
the responsibility of the regulatory agency, the owners or managers of the project in
question, or both.
It is important that any monitoring programme is designed around the measurement
of:
• standards identified by national legislation and regulation; and
• those parameters relevant to the indication of any increasing risk to the biological
end points that have been identified.
Fundamental also to every monitoring programme is an exact specification of the
methodology. This, for the most part, should have been established during the baseline
survey. In other words, reference stations and site stations will be located and fixed
along transects on the seabed or at set surface or mid-water distances from identifiable
points (such as the perimeter of a facility), and all based on the predominant direction
of the current. In addition, the frequency and methods of sampling will be specified and
the methods of analysis will be identified together, where necessary, with laboratory
instrumentation.
GLOBAL APPLICATION OF THE FRAMEWORK
Physical demands of marine fish aquaculture

For the foreseeable future, intensive marine fish aquaculture will be limited to waters
of the continental shelf, which is often defined as lying above the 200-m contour.
However, for the practical reasons of engineering cost, operational management and
profitability, marine fish aquaculture takes place reasonably close to shore, provided
that water quality conditions are suitable.
Selection of a location depends on the proposed fish farming system and practice.
Again, because of the investment cost, only intensive fish production is economically
feasible, and the options are floating net-pen complexes and buoyant individual cages
designed to remain at the surface or to be submerged as required. Net-pen complexes
are therefore usually located in coastal estuaries, sounds and lagoons that have rapid
marine water exchange, have some shelter and provide anchorages that are less than 40 m
deep. Individual buoyant cages can be located in less-sheltered waters, and submersible
cages can be deployed in deeper water to avoid storms. However, submersible cages
have limitations. Although wave energy attenuates with depth, the scale of each unit is
limited by potential fatigue of the materials, the capacity of the automated feeders and
the need for regular surveillance and service operations by scuba divers. Scuba divers
can operate safely down to a depth of 30 m, but operate most economically around
10–15 m and working in pairs. Currently, submersible cages are being operated at
depths of less than 100 m, but this may still be up to 30 km offshore.
Net-pen complexes are anchored by many separate cables, depending on their
formation and size. Additional lines may anchor predator nets. Individual buoyant
cages are anchored by four discrete lines that maintain tension all around continuously.
Single-point anchor systems have also been used, but at some time the line will become
slack, which puts a burden on the cage/line interface. The preferred substrate for the
anchors themselves is sand or mud. Anchors can be bolted into rocky substrates, but
the practice is costly.
Buoyant cages are designed to operate in currents up to 90 cm/sec, or about 1.74 knots.
This is above what is desirable for the fish, which, when confined in strong currents,
expend too much energy maintaining their position in the cage instead of growth.
Environmental demands of marine fish aquaculture

Successful marine fish aquaculture depends on a synergism between the aquaculture
site and the farmer. The environmental qualities or parameters of the site must be
conducive to the life history and physiology of the species of fish in culture, and the
operator must provide an appropriate living space for the fish, meet all their nutritional
requirements and maintain their health.
Site selection for an aquaculture facility is therefore a critical task. It is made difficult
because the range of marine ecosystems in which it may be located is diverse, and the
suitability of their physical and chemical properties depend significantly on the species
and culture practice to be implemented. For example, there are different site demands
for submersible cages containing cobia 3–5 km from the coast of Puerto Rico, pens
for growing-out tuna in coastal waters within 2 km of the shoreline of Australia and
enclosures for rearing seabream in shallow marine embayments in the Mediterranean.
The hydrodynamics, nutrient levels, types of pollution and other environmental
parameters found in these locations are all very different. Consequently, there will be
differences in the biological end points and their attributes resulting from aquaculture
operations that characterize the potential risks to the environment. For example, the
risk of eutrophication and change in species diversity in the benthic environment in the
poorly flushed lagoons of the Mediterranean is higher than in the offshore waters of
either Puerto Rico or Australia where there are greater depths and high water exchange
rates.
Because of all these differences, each ecological risk assessment has to be tailored to
an individual location, and an individual species and aquaculture practice. However, the
categories of potential ecological risks and their fundamental methods of assessment
are common, and it is only their relative importance that will vary.
A MATRIX APPROACH TO GUIDE THE APPLICATION OF RISK ASSESSMENTS

In selecting a suitable site for marine fish culture, the ideal requirement is a pollution-
free environment in the epipelagic zone with good water quality parameters. Primarily,
this means year-round high ambient levels of oxygen combined with salinities and
temperatures that are between the middle and upper end of the ranges tolerated by
the respective farm species, and maintained by a modest current and average tidal rise
and fall. Unfortunately, the ideal cannot always be found, and the parameters are so
diverse that most sites are selected for reasons somewhere between ideal water quality
parameters and operational cost and convenience.
As marine fish aquaculture is still in its infancy in most countries and the locations
where it is practiced at the present time are few, for the purpose of these guidelines it
is proposed to classify the typical marine aquaculture environment into categories of

biogeographical regions or zones and categories of marine epipelagic ecosystem. The
definitions of the zones and categories are as follows:
• The two biogeographical zones suitable for marine aquaculture (as illustrated in
Figure 3) are:
– Temperate waters (10–18 ˚C). Typically cold waters with intrusions of
some warmer waters from the subtropics. Temperate waters can be rich in
nutrients and highly productive (waters off Australia being an exception), and
consequently characterized by low light intensity levels. Temperate waters
often support substantial fisheries, together with their dependent populations
of birds and marine mammals.
– Tropical waters (>18 ˚C). Typically warm waters with intrusions of some
colder waters from the subtropics. Tropical waters are biologically very rich
but nutrient poor and characterized by high light levels. Tropical waters often
support migratory populations.
• The three epipelagic ecosystems are:
– Offshore waters. Typically 3 km or more from the coast, or up to 100 m in
depth, and suitable for submersible cages.
– Coastal waters. Typically less than 3 km from the coast or up to 30 m in
depth, suitable for submersible cages and floating cages, with strong tidal
interchange.
– Inshore water bodies. Typically semi-enclosed but large coastal sounds,
lagoons and estuaries, relatively shallow in depth, suitable for floating cages
and fixed enclosures, with good tidal flushing.
The ten categories of risk can then be evaluated in broad terms against each of the
six generalized marine ecosystems in the form of a matrix (Table 2). The objective
is to indicate probable differences in priority relative to each type of ecosystem and
to assist risk managers and risk assessors with their problem formulation. However,
the information presented in the matrix does not rule out the uniqueness of some
ecosystems, and this must always be considered.
FIGURE 3
Broad biogeographical zones for marine aquaculture
Courtesy of the Gulf of Maine Research Institute

TABLE 2
Matrix to guide the application of risk assessments in the waters of different biogeographic zones1
Epipelagic ecosystem in temperate Epipelagic ecosystem in tropical waters
waters (>18 ˚C)
(10–18 ˚C)
Category of possible risk Inshore Coastal Offshore Inshore Coastal Offshore
1. Increased organic loading ***** ** * ***** *** *
2. Increased inorganic loading ***** ** * ***** *** *
3. Residual metals * * * ** * *
4. Transmission of disease organisms *** ** ** *** ** **
5. Residual therapeutants ** * * ** * *
6. Biological interactions of escapes ** ** * ** ** *
with wild populations
7. Physical interactions with marine ** ** * ** ** *
wildlife
8. Physical impact on marine habitat ** * * ** * *
9. Using wild juveniles for grow-out ** ** * *** *** **
10. Harvesting industrial fisheries for ** ** *** *** *** ***
fish feed
1
Key: Potential for ecological change without management action: *****Significantly high, ****High, ***Medium, **Low , *Little
or none.
GLOSSARY OF RISK ASSESSMENT AND MARINE TERMS
(a) Risk assessment terms3

Adverse ecological effects. Changes that are considered undesirable because they alter
valued structural or functional characteristics of ecosystems or their components. An
evaluation of adversity may consider the type, intensity and scale of the effect as well
as the potential for recovery.
Assessment end-point. An explicit expression of the environmental value that is to be
protected, operationally defined by an ecological entity and its attributes. For example,
marine turtles are valued ecological entities, and the survival of individual migrating
turtles is an important attribute.
Attribute. A quality or characteristic of an ecological entity. An attribute is one
component of an assessment end point.
Characterization of ecological effects. A portion of the analysis phase of ecological
risk assessment that evaluates the ability of stressor(s) to cause adverse effects under a
particular set of circumstances.
Characterization of exposure. A portion of the analysis phase of ecological risk
assessment that evaluates the interaction of the stressor with one or more ecological
entities. Exposure can be expressed as co-occurrence or contact, depending on the
stressor and ecological component involved.
Community. An assemblage of populations of different species within a specified
location in space and time.
Conceptual model. In problem formulation, a visual representation and written
description of predicted relationships between ecological entities and the stressors to
which they may be exposed.
Ecological entity. A general term that may refer to a species, a group of species, an
ecosystem function or characteristic, or a specific habitat. An ecological entity is one
component of an assessment end point.
Ecological risk assessment. The process that evaluates the likelihood that adverse
ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more
stressors.
Ecosystem. The biotic community and abiotic environment within a specified location
in space and time.
3
Source of risk assessment terms: US EPA, 1992, Guidelines for ecological risk assessment.
Exposure. The contact or co-occurrence of a stressor with a receptor.

LC50. A statistically or graphically estimated concentration that is expected to be lethal
to 50 percent of a group of organisms under specified conditions.
Measure of effect. A change in an attribute of an assessment end point or its surrogate
in response to a stressor to which it is exposed.
Measure of exposure. A measure of stressor existence and movement in the
environment and its contact or co-existence with the assessment end point.
Population. An aggregate of individuals of a species within a specified location in space
and time.
Receptor. The ecological entity exposed to the stressor.
Recovery. The rate and extent of return of a population or community to some
aspect(s) of its previous condition.
Risk characterization. A phase of ecological risk assessment that integrates the
exposure and stressor-response profiles to evaluate the likelihood of adverse ecological
effects associated with exposure to a stressor.
Source. An entity or action that releases to the environment or imposes on the
environment a chemical, physical or biological stressor or stressors.
Stressor. Any physical, chemical, or biological entity that can induce an adverse
response.
(b) Marine terms

Benthos. Collectively all those animals and plants living on or in sediments at the
bottom of the sea. Benthic animals are usually described by their position in the
sediment relative to the surface and their size, i.e.:
Infauna. Fauna living within (burrowing in) the sediments, and
Epifauna. Fauna living at or on the sediment surface. They can be sessile or slow
moving, and may spend some time in the water column.
Bioremediation. Biological recovery.
Demersal. Living on or near the bottom of the sea.
Epipelagic. Pertaining to the community of suspended organisms inhabiting an
aquatic environment between the surface and a depth of 200 m.
Halocline. Well-defined vertical salinity gradient in the water column.
Nekton. Collectively the macroscopic animals suspended in the sea, moving about
independently of currents (includes fishes and whales).
Pelagic. Of or pertaining to the open waters of the sea (beyond 20 m depth).
Porewater. The water retained in the pores between the grains of the sediment.
Pycnocline. Well-defined vertical density gradient in the water column.
Seston. Collectively all living and dead suspended microscopic animals and par-
ticulate matter in the sea.
APPENDIxES
Appendices A through J of NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-NWFSC-71 are
templates that outline the approach for conducting a risk assessment for each of the ten
areas of marine fish aquaculture perceived by the public and public administrators to
be of most concern. The titles of the appendices are listed below:
• Appendix A: Increased Organic Loading
• Appendix B: Increased Inorganic Loading
• Appendix C: Residual Heavy Metals
• Appendix D: Transmission of Disease Organisms
• Appendix E: Residual Therapeutants
• Appendix F: Biological Interaction of Escapes with Wild Populations
• Appendix G: Physical Interaction with Marine Wildlife
• Appendix H: Physical Impact on Marine Habitat
• Appendix I: Using Wild Juveniles for Grow-out
• Appendix J: Harvesting Industrial Fisheries for Aqua-feeds
• Appendix K: Workshop Participants
• Appendix L: Sources of Further Information
153
Financial risk analysis in

aquaculture
Lotus E. Kam and Pingsun Leung

Department of Molecular Biosciences and Bioengineering
University of Hawaii at Manoa
3050 Maile Way, Gilmore 111
Honolulu, Hawaii 96822
[email protected]; [email protected]
Kam, L.E. and Leung, P. 2008. Financial risk analysis in aquaculture. In M.G Bondad-
Reantaso, J.R. Arthur and R.P. Subasinghe (eds). Understanding and applying risk
analysis in aquaculture. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper. No. 519.
Rome, FAO. pp. 153–207.
ABSTRACT
Financial risk analysis methods were compared with the standard components of a risk
analysis (hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication).
Financial and related performance measures are critical in assessing financial risk. A
variety of quantitative methods of financial risk assessment (release assessment, exposure
assessment, consequence assessment and risk characterization) are presented. In financial
risk assessment, financial analysis methods (capital budgeting, enterprise budgets, cash
flow analysis, financial performance ratios, partial budget analysis etc.) are necessary.
Numerous examples from aquaculture research illustrate methods for probabilistic
risk estimation (probability trees, Bayesian networks and stochastic simulation) and
non-probabilistic risk estimation (what-if/scenario-based analysis, sensitivity analysis
and break-even analysis). Evaluation methods based on decision analysis principles are
well-established in financial risk analysis. The paper illustrates the use of decision trees
and Bayesian decision networks, risk programming (e.g. E-V efficiency and MOTAD),
stochastic efficiency and multiple criteria/trade-off analysis (e.g. MCDM and AHP/
ANP) for assessing financial risk in aquaculture. Since decision analysis methods are
mature, a number of software packages that implement many of the methods are also
represented. Financial risk analysis methods should be integrated in the early phases
of hazard identification and risk assessment in order to truly manage financial risk in
aquaculture. While many studies and techniques are available to analyze financial risk
in aquaculture, the methods are not necessarily linked to the traditional components
of a risk assessment. This paper links financial analysis with traditional risk analysis
methods and demonstrates the utility of decision analysis principles in analysing risk in
aquaculture.
INTRODUCTION
In aquaculture, financial risk refers to the potential loss associated with an aquaculture
investment. Aquaculture investments may be public or private and made on behalf of
stakeholders, including individual farmers, shareholders, farm enterprises, financial
institutions and/or government institutions.
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION
Risk is defined as uncertain consequences, usually unfavourable outcomes, due to
imperfect knowledge (Kaplan and Garrick, 1981; Hardaker et al., 2004). Risk can be
lowered by reducing or removing hazards, i.e. sources of risk. Hazards are tangible
threats that can contribute to risk but do not necessarily produce risk. Agriculture and
aquaculture are inherently risky financial endeavours (Goodwin and Mishra, 2000).
In aquaculture, the hazards can be broadly classified as production threats or market
(or economic) threats.1 According to the United States Department of Agriculture
(USDA) (Harwood et al., 1999), United States producers of major field crops are
concerned most with production yield and market price variability.
Financial risk represents the likelihood of a hazardous event occurring and the
potential financial loss that could result. Figure 1 illustrates how financial risk links
hazards to financial loss. The presence of hazards affecting production and market
conditions (e.g. price, demand) can bring about financial loss.
Production threats
Production threats have a negative impact on saleable yield, resulting in a financial loss.
Threats to production include disfavourable environmental conditions, equipment or
other asset failure, poor-quality seedstock and broodstock, disease and pest infestation.
The success of an aquaculture enterprise often depends on the tacit knowledge of a few
experienced farmers and managers. Consequently, as with the performance of other
assets, employee loss or disability creates financial risk because production may be
disrupted (Barry, 1984; Harwood et al., 1999).
Market threats
Market threats exist in the form of product prices and regulations. Industry competition
or reduced demand can lead to decreasing sale prices of aquaculture products. In either
case, decreasing market prices will reduce revenue associated with sale of aquaculture
products. Escalating prices of production inputs also pose a market threat because
they decrease producer profit. Likewise, producers are exposed to risk due to limited
supply of inputs. A recent off-shore aquaculture economic study for Pacific threadfin
in Hawaii illustrates this case. The large-scale production level that was needed for the
off-shore enterprise to be profitable could not be supported by the existing supply of
fingerlings (Kam, Leung and Ostrowski, 2003). Recent plans for a Hawaiian off-shore
cage enterprise to vertically integrate by developing an in-house hatchery suggest the
realization of the financial risks from market threats posed by the study.
Government policies and other institutional threats affect the aquaculture business
climate by influencing interest rates and imposing tax incentives, trade restrictions
Figure 1
Market and production uncertainty are commonly viewed as sources of risks that lead
to financial losses
Hazards Production uncertainty Market uncertainty
Financial risk
Risk
Financial loss
Risk
1
See Barry (1984) and Harwood et al. (1999) for other classifications of risk in agriculture.
and environmental policies. For example, environmental impact assessment (EIA)

and regular water sampling and analysis are costs of doing business for off-shore
aquaculture production in the United States (Kam, Leung and Ostrowski, 2003).
Government regulations contribute to risk because they can become increasingly
demanding, costly to satisfy over time and may be subject to change.
Methods for identifying hazards with financial consequences

Preliminary information gathering helps to scope and structure a risk problem and
lays the foundation for communicating risk. At the stage of hazard identification, the
magnitude of the consequences and estimating the likelihood of occurrence are not
critically important.
A variety of resources should be consulted to identify the hazards that contribute
to financial risk. Stakeholders whose investments are at risk may provide significant
insight when identifying hazards. These stakeholders can include the lenders who
provide the financial support to farmers, farm owners, government agencies, consumers
and members of related/affected industries.
When the hazards contributing to financial risk are not well defined, anecdotal
reports are helpful in identifying hazards. Industry experts and the farmers themselves
are typical secondary sources used to identify the pertinent production and market
threats. Information can also be gathered from trade reports, news articles and
published research (e.g. agriculture extension publications, journal articles, case
studies). In gathering primary data, it’s common to survey farmers and consumers,
review state-of-the-art practices and gather information from members of related
industries such as restaurant managers (Neira, Engle and Quagrainie, 2003, Engle et al.,
2005). Farmers can also be surveyed to identify hazards. In a direct marketing study
for ornamental fish, for example, a producer survey identified sale prices and shipping
costs as major issues prohibiting them from direct-marketing their products (Kam,
Leung and Tamaru, 2005). Subsequent interviews with the ornamental wholesalers
and aquaculture development programme members helped to complete the picture
regarding issues affecting the ornamental industry.
In an import risk analysis (IRA) conducted by Biosecurity Australia (2006), potential
hazards affecting prawn products were based on the list of diseases notifiable to the
World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE, formerly the Office International des
Épizooties), then refined to include diseases important to the importation of prawn and
prawn products. A scientific team of specialists assisted in an IRA that identified nine
diseases as hazards associated with the importation of uncooked prawns and prawn
products intended for food consumption. For Hawaii, an IRA identified white spot
syndrome virus (WSSV) from imported frozen commodity shrimp products as a hazard
affecting local shrimp production (see Annex I). WSSV was the focus of the sample IRA
based on anecdotal reports from farmers, industry experts and news sources.
Table 1 provides common examples of hazards in aquaculture as well as their
sources of information.
FINANCIAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk assessments can be qualitative or quantitative in nature. A qualitative risk
assessment is a reasoned and logical discussion of relevant factors expressed in non-
numerical terms, such as high, medium, low or negligible. An excellent example of
a qualitative IRA can be found in Murray (2002). Quantitative methods are useful
for investigating financial risk in aquaculture because financial risk generally implies
monetary loss. While qualitative methods are a viable and popular approach to analysing
risk, this paper on financial risk highlights quantitative methods as a departure from
qualitative methods commonly used in risk analysis. Some aspects of non-probabilistic
risk estimation can be used in conjunction with qualitative risk assessments.
Table 1
Examples of hazards in aquaculture
Hazards Sources of Information
Market threats Production threats Primary data
• Decreasing sale prices (prices of • Seedstock low quality or limited • Farmer experience/hunches
outputs) availability • On-site/field visits
• Increasing production costs (prices • Broodstock low quality or limited • Interviews with industry experts
of inputs) availability • Individual farm data
• Availability (scarcity) of inputs • Equipment/asset failure • Surveys
• Escalating interest rates • Decreasing growth rates Secondary Data
• Decreasing market demand • Disease spread • News sources
• Limited market access • Lack/loss of skilled labour • Agricultural extension reports
• Creditor instability • Detrimental environment/weather • Industry reports
conditions
• Case studies
• Limited availability of food
• Anecdotal reports
(especially in extensive systems)
Table 2
Elements of a financial risk assessment
Elements of a risk assessment Defined with respect to financial risk
Release assessment Identifying the extent to which a production or market threat could
affect the aquaculture industry.
Exposure assessment Identifying the likelihood that the hazard(s), if present, will affect the
aquaculture enterprise (or stakeholder).
Consequence assessment Identifying the financial consequences associated with the exposure to
the hazard(s).
Risk characterization Estimating the potential financial consequences associated with the
hazard(s) identified.
A risk assessment refers to the process of identifying, estimating and evaluating the
consequences of exposure to a hazard or a source of risk.2 Risk assessment terminology
is commonly associated with biological and environmental hazard applications (e.g.
Calow, 1998; OIE, 2006). The traditional risk assessment definitions can be adapted for
financial risk assessment in aquaculture (Table 2).
Release assessment
After production and market threats have been identified, a release assessment is
needed to determine the extent to which potential hazards exist. The practice of risk
assessment presumes that it is possible to estimate the uncertainty of the hazard existing.
Quantitatively, uncertainty can be estimated in the form of probabilities (or probability
distributions). When probabilities are difficult to estimate, a range of values can reflect
uncertainty in the form of scenarios (e.g. best case, most likely and worst case).
For biological production threats, a release assessment will generally rely on a
pathway analysis to trace the method by which a pathogen reaches the production site.
As illustrated in Figure 2, pathways of exposure can be used to trace production loss
attributed to contamination and the quality of broodstock and seedstock from a pond
or hatchery or from the wild. For example, Hawaiian aquaculture industry members
argue that white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) import risk in Hawaii may be traced to
the country of origin and subsequent retail distribution channels of frozen commodity
shrimp products (FCS) as illustrated in Figure 3. Trade data and incidence reports are
useful for estimating the probability of a hazardous pathogen release in an importing
country. Based on WSSV-outbreak incident reports, FCS import rates by region and
consumption estimates, the probability of WSSV-infected retail FCS products was
estimated at 32 percent for Hawaii (Kam, 2006).
In contrast to biological threats that pose financial risk, many other production
threats are not due to pathogen transmission. Consequently, a pathway analysis is
not necessary for a risk assessment. Production threats that originate on the farm-site
are a distinct departure from biological threats traditionally traced by risk assessment
2
Some risk frameworks consider hazard identification to be the first step of a risk assessment.
Figure 2
Release pathway for exotic shrimp introductions indicating points of inspection (adapted
from Johnson 1990, based on Kam 2006)
Figure 3
Pathways of white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) exposure between Hawaiian shrimp
aquaculture, retail markets and wildstock
methods. Potential hazards that are farm-specific such as growth variation can be
estimated using expert input or based on farm historical data. Other on-site risks
include equipment failure, which can be quantified using expert estimates or farm data
on downtime for repairs and services.
For market threats, a hazard can include the potential decrease in sale prices or
demand. Hazards also come in the form of increases in the price of production inputs
(e.g. cost of seedstock, broodstock, feed, water) or demand of products. Industry data
are a good resource for identifying fluctuations in the volumes and prices of products
sold, as well as input prices.
Exposure assessment
In contrast to release assessments that describe the extent to which the hazard exists in
the environment, exposure assessments are specific to the investor(s) (or stakeholders).
In biological and chemical risk analysis, exposure assessment often involves an estimate
of the likelihood of intake by human or environment. Likewise, in financial risk
analysis, exposure assessment involves an estimate of the probability that a hazard
will affect a farm, entire industry or other unit of analysis. In studying an aquaculture
industry, a hazard may affect each farm differently. Just as some populations are
more resilient to biological hazards, some farms are more resilient to hazards. Their
resilience or susceptibility to the threat will depend on production technologies,
business strategies, site characteristics and other risk-mitigating practices. Differences
between farm characteristics and practices and their association with financial risk
allude to potential financial risk management strategies.
Determining the financial risk factors for a farm is often based on tacit knowledge.
An exposure assessment helps to illuminate the factors contributing to financial risk
and fosters risk communication. General perceptions of a farm’s level of exposure in
comparison to other farms can underscore the characteristics and strategies that lower
a farm’s financial risk. In a WSSV import risk study (described in Annex I), 13 shrimp
farms were considered in the risk analysis. Different levels of exposure, based primarily
on location, characterized each farm. As illustrated in the WSSV example in Figure 3,
farm location influenced the extent of the WSSV threat from bait shrimp used at
nearby fishing sites, shrimp truck food sales, food waste, FCS retail shrimp and disease
transmission from neighbouring farms. Each farm’s level of biosecurity practices (e.g.
sanitary practices or physical security) was subjectively evaluated, implying further
reductions in a farm’s exposure to WSSV and thus financial risk. Table 3 summarizes
the major farm characteristics and practices that affect financial risk.
Financial risk factors that expose farms to hazards can also be determined from farm
performance measures. For example, Hambrey and Southall (2002) have identified
“risk exposure” indicators such as total investment required before achieving return,
time delay (“lead time”) before return occurs, crop (harvesting) cycle and working
capital required for a cycle. Most farms, however, do not document sufficiently detailed
information needed to calculate these types of risk exposure measures. Furthermore,
such risk exposure measures are often difficult to obtain for small farms. For example,
while return on labour is important for smaller-scale enterprises, the data required to
produce the estimates are not always available.
Table 3
Farm characteristics and practices that influence financial risk
Farm characteristics & practices Examples
Crop/product selection Diversification, specialization
Technology & practices Operation protocols, equipment
Location Coastal, inland, isolated
Financial leverage Interest rates, amount borrowed
Infrastructure Fencing, circulation system
Consequences refer to outcomes, usually a loss such as monetary loss, production loss
or socioeconomic loss. The consequences can represent a single aquaculture enterprise,
entire industry representing multiple enterprises or a regional economy.
Financial consequences
Since many of the principles underlying a financial risk assessment are based on financial
analysis, a basic understanding of financial analysis methods is highly recommended.
A training manual by Engle and Neira (2005) developed for tilapia farm business
management and economics provides explanations of farm-level financial analysis
methods with detailed examples for a Kenyan tilapia farm. Other useful measures and
indicators of financial performance relevant to aquaculture and fishery activities can
also be found in the technical paper by Hambrey (2002). Some examples of financial
efficiency measures for risk assessment are presented in Table 4.
Financial risk analyses focus primarily on profitability indicators. Financial
profitability can be measured in a variety of ways, including profit (net revenue or
net income), return on production inputs (e.g. capital, water, land and labour), profit
margin, return on investment (ROI) and internal rate of return (IRR). In order to
measure profitability, a careful accounting of the costs is needed. When estimating the
financial cost of a hazard, it is necessary to identify the fixed costs and variable costs.
Costs that vary with production are called “variable costs” (also called operating costs).
In contrast, fixed costs are costs that are incurred regardless of production activity
(sometimes referred to as overhead or ownership costs). Some examples of fixed and
variable costs are available in Table 5.
The distinction between fixed and variable costs is useful when conducting partial
budget analyses, which investigate the impact of small changes on profit. An example
of a partial budget analysis is presented in Box 1. For hazards and managerial decisions
with long-term impacts, fixed costs and variable costs are needed to generate financial
Table 4
1
Measures of financial efficiency (from Engle and Neira (2005)
Solvency Liquidity Profitability (or viability) Cash flow
• Debt/asset ratio • Current ratio • Profit/ha/crop (or profit/ha/yr) • Cash flow coverage
• Equity/asset ratio • Working capital • Return on investment ratio
• Debt/equity ratio • Net farm income • Debt-servicing ratio
• Net worth • Return to labour and management • Cash flow risk and
sensitivity ratio
• Return to management
• Rate of return on farm assets
• Rate of return on farm equity
• Operating profit margin ratio
• Gross margin
• Net change in profit
(from partial budget analysis)
• Break-even price
• Benefit to cost ratio
1
Definitions available in Hambrey (2002) and Engle and Neira (2005).
statements for the budget period. In addition Table 5

to profitability, measures of solvency, liquidity Examples of fixed and variable costs
and cash flow can be derived from financial Fixed costs Variable costs
statements including enterprise budgets, • Rent1 • Feed
income statements, cash flow statements and • Management salaries • Labour
• Office expenses • Water
balance sheets over a budget period.
• Equipment depreciation • Maintenance
Variable costs include production costs, • Other asset depreciation • Sales tax
costs of goods sold and even expenses not 1 In some cases, rent is treated as a variable cost; see
directly tied to the production of products discussion on “classifying costs” below.
BOX 1
Developing a partial budget analysis: a partial budget analysis for feed-type
decision for a tilapia farm
Engle and Neira (2005) created a training manual on Tilapia Farm Business Management
and Economics that includes a guide to creating a partial budget. The following excerpt is
taken from the manual:
Partial budgets are used when considering a relatively small change on the farm.
Changes may involve building additional ponds, changing type of feed, changing stocking
rates with polyculture etc. Table 6 presents an analysis of a proposed change on a tilapia
farm: whether or not to switch the type of feed from a pelleted diet to rice bran. The
advantage of the rice bran is that it costs less than pellets. However, the disadvantage is
that FRCs are higher and growth rates lower with rice bran. Bran was assumed to exhibit
lower cost (3.5 Keynan shillings (KSh)/kg), but a higher FCR than pelted diet feed.
A switch to rice bran would result in reduced tilapia revenue of KSh 624 000. This
reduced revenue results from lower yields of fish when fed rice bran as compared to
pellets. No additional cost would apply to a switch from pellets to rice bran, nor would
there be any additional revenue Table 6 also provides details of the reduced costs that
would be incurred by switching to rice bran. The net change in profit would be negative
(KSh -180 561), suggesting that switching feed is not profitable.
Table 6
Partial budget analysis used to evaluate the economic effect of changing from a pelleted diet
feed to rice bran (all figures in Kenyan shillings, KSh)
Feed
Value of parameters that change Pelleted diet Rice bran Change in cost
Tilapia sales 1 046 400 422 400 624 000
Feed total cost 419 904 72 074 347 832
Fingerlings total cost 108 000 59 904 48 096
Interest on operating capital 80 341 32 830 47 511
Additional costs
None
Reduced revenue
Tilapia sales 624 000
A. Total additional costs and reduced revenue 624 000
Additional revenue
None
Reduced costs
Tilapia fingerlings 48 096
Feed 347 832
Interest on operating capital 47 551
B. Total additional revenue and reduced cost 443 439
Net change in profit (B-A) (180 561)
or services but that vary with production volume. The variable costs associated with a
hazard can include a decrease in sales resulting from unsaleable products. For market
hazards, variable costs could include increases in the cost of seedstock, broodstock,
feed or water. Production threats could include low food conversion ratios (FCR) that
result in increased feed requirements or lower production output. Additional labour
could also be required in response to production threats.
Fixed costs associated with a hazard can include the one-time expenses associated
with the realized financial threat. These costs can include additional clean-up costs,
preventive control measures (disease control), fines, equipment repair or enhancements.
Many fixed costs require additional supporting information to identify depreciation
costs and interest levels that may change on an annual basis (Engle and Neira, 2005).
BOX 2
Classifying costs to calculate profitability: a financial analysis of a Pacific
threadfin hatchery
A spreadsheet model was developed to determine the viable scale for a commercial
Pacific threadfin (Polydactylus sexfilis) hatchery in Hawaii (Kam et al., 2002). The
production scheme was modeled after state-of-the-art practices performed at the oceanic
Institute in Waimanalo, Hawaii. For a hatchery enterprise producing 1.2 million fry per
year, the cost associated with raising one 40-day old 1.00 g fry is estimated at US$0.2201
(Table 7). The largest variable costs are in labour and supplies, which comprise 49 and 9
percent of the total production cost, respectively. The combined annualized fixed cost for
development and equipment is approximately 12 percent of total production cost. Based
on a 20-year statement of cash flows for fry sold at US$0.25, the 20-year internal rate of
return (IRR) was 30.63 percent. In comparison to the US$0.2201 unit cost for 1.2 million
fry production, analyses of smaller enterprises producing 900 000 and 600 000 fry per
year reflected significant size diseconomies, with unit costs of US$0.2741 and $0.3882,
respectively (Figure 4).
Demand to support a large-scale Pacific threadfin commercial hatchery was uncertain.
Since smaller-scale commercial hatcheries may not be economically feasible, facilities may
seek to outsource live feed production modules or pursue multiproduct and multiphase
approaches to production. An analysis of the production period length, for example,
indicated that the cost for producing a day-25 0.05 g fry is US¢ 17.25 before tax and
suggested the financial implications of transferring the responsibility of the nursery
stage to grow-out farmers (Figure 5). Evaluation of the benefits gained from changes in
nursery length, however, must also consider changes in facility requirements, mortality
and shipping costs associated with transit, and the growout performance of and market
demand for different size fry.
Additional analyses can be found in the original study, which estimated the potential
cost savings associated with the elimination of rotifer, microalgae and enriched artemia
production. Managerial decisions, however, would also consider the quality and
associated production efficiencies of substitutes.
Classifying costs as either fixed or Figure 4

variable will depend on the nature of a Size economies for scaled Pacific threadfin hatchery
farm’s business. For example, in a Pacific production levels in US¢
threadfin hatchery economics study (Kam 40
et al., 2002), rent was treated as a variable 38.82
cost because the amount of rent charged

was based on a percentage of gross revenue. 35
Cost (¢) per Fry Before Tax
While salaried personnel are considered

fixed costs, hourly labour and commission-
30
based compensation are variable costs.
27.41
Consequently, cost items like personnel
expenditure may require further detail to 25
specify the portion that is fixed vs variable
22.01
(e.g. salary vs wages). However, for practical
purposes, labour expenses are generally 20
fixed and not typically adjusted in response

to actual yields (Samples and Leung 1986).
15
An example of a financial analysis based on 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5
an enterprise budget for a Pacific threadfin Production Yield (Million Fry)
hatchery is given in Box 2.
Figure 5
Farm production cost (US¢/fry) from spawning to early nursery
25¢
22.86
22.01
21.08 0.85
19.91 0.93
20¢
17.25
16.40
15.59
Production Cost (¢/fry)
14.78
15¢ 13.84
12.08
10¢
6.07 6.30 6.41 6.47

5.17
5¢
0¢
25 30 35 40 45
(0.05g) (0.14g) (0.38g) (1.00g) (1.84g)
Days Posthatch
(fry weight)
Variable Cost Fixed Cost Total Cost
Table 7
Annual income in US$ for a hypothetical Pacific threadfin hatchery producing 1.2 million fry
Annual Income Year 1 2 3 4 51
Gross Receipts from Production 210 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000
Variable Operational Costs
- Feed 5 442 5 442 5 442 5 442 5 442
- Supplies 24 985 24 985 24 985 24 985 24 985
- Energy 10 228 10 228 10 228 10 228 10 228
- Facilities Rent 4 200 6 000 6 000 6 000 6 000
- Labour 129 993 129 993 129 993 129 993 129 993
- Maintenance 1 557 1 557 1 557 1 557 1 557
- General Excise Tax 1 050 1 500 1 500 1 500 1 500
Total Variable Costs 177 454 179 704 179 704 179 704 179 704
Fixed Costs
- Equipment Depreciation 10 331 10 331 10 331 10 331 10 331
- Development Depreciation 20 817 20 817 20 817 20 817 20 817
Total Fixed Costs 31 148 31 148 31 148 31 148 31 148
Contingency 8 873 8 985 8 985 8 985 8 985
Total Operational Expenses 217 475 219 837 219 837 219 837 219 837
Interest Expense 46 099 45 819 45 511 45 172 44 799
Total Expenses 263 574 265 656 265 348 265 009 264 636
Net Income Before Tax (53 574) 34 344 34 652 34 991 35 364
Income Tax 0 6 756 6 819 6 888 6 964
Net Income After Tax (53 574) 27 588 27 833 28 103 28 400
Cost per Fry Before Tax 0.3125 0.2201 0.2198 0.2195 0.2192
Cost per Fry After Tax 0.3138 0.2270 0.2268 0.2266 0.2263
1
The first five years of the Income Statement are exhibited in Table 6. Fixed costs remain constant after the
second year based on straight-line depreciation and production cycles that are less than a year. Variations in net
income after year two are due to declining loan interest expenses and increasing income tax accrued.
Economic consequences
Financial risk can be viewed as a contributing factor to economic risk. The economic
impact on an industry reflects the cumulative financial consequences experienced by
industry members. When examining economic consequences, or “economic risk,” we
are also concerned with the impact on other industries within a region or between
regions of interest, generally with less concern for the individual farm financial details.
An input-output model, for example, considers relationships between different
industry sectors. An input-output model defines how output from one industry
becomes input of another industry among different sectors for a cross-section of the
economy. Based on the structure of the economy as it relates to product consumption,
the impact of policies could be projected for a regional economy or national economy.
A more detailed analysis could also include welfare assessments (i.e. consumer and
producer surpluses) using econometric and welfare analyses.
Other consequences
Socio-economic consequences may also be considered when evaluating financial risk.
Environmental damages, social impacts (e.g. employment and income distribution
issues), and the effects on international and domestic trade are also valid measures to
consider. Industry performance measures (e.g. proportion of farmers experiencing a
loss or farmers receiving return on labour that is lower than the wage rate) may be
useful measures when considering regional socio-economic agendas (Hambrey and
Southall, 2002). Principles of utility and methods for defining evaluation criteria can
help to consolidate social, economic and financial considerations. These methods will
be discussed later in terms of risk management objectives.
The results of a release assessment, exposure assessment and consequence assessment
are combined to form a risk characterization for a hazard (or multiple hazards). Financial
consequences signify the difference between financial risk characterization from other
forms of risk characterization. A financial risk analysis can be conducted for any hazard
that contributes to a financial loss. Methods for estimating the financial loss, or risk
estimation are discussed next.
The process of risk characterization produces a risk estimate that reflects the
consequences and likelihood of a hazard affecting a farm. Consequently, a risk estimate
integrates the results of the release assessment, exposure assessment and consequence
assessment. Financial risk characterizations quantify the relative impact of hazards in
comparison to a baseline – ideal situation – where no hazard exists. When no baseline is
available, the consequences associated with different hazards are often compared when
making risk management decisions.
Financial risk cannot be measured by budgets or performance ratios because they are
based on average values and do not account for uncertainty. Consequently, principles
of financial analysis are a necessary first step in financial risk assessment. Since risk is
a relative measure, a financial analysis is usually conducted first as the reference point
for subsequent risk analysis. For risk analysis, methods for integrating aspects of
uncertainty are needed. When characterizing financial risk, decision analysis methods
allow us to consider uncertainty that affects the financial measures of interest.
Decision analysis refers to the body of methods used to rationalize and assist choices
under uncertainty (Hardaker et al., 2004). In addition to providing managerial decision
support, decision analysis techniques encourage transparency of the problem, which
is essential for risk communication. This section on financial risk characterization
presents modelling uncertainty using decision analytic methods. The identification
and evaluation of choices will be discussed further in the section on Financial Risk
Management.
From a decision analysis perspective, there are two approaches to estimating
uncertainty: probabilistic and non-probabilistic estimation. In probabilistic estimation,
likelihood estimates and probability distributions are used to quantify uncertainty. In
non-probabilistic estimation, uncertain events – for which the likelihood of occurring
Table 8
Common decision analysis methods for characterizing risk is not specified – are portrayed as scenarios.
Probabilistic estimation Non-probabilistic estimation Common methods for probabilistic and non-
• Probability trees • What-if (scenario-based) analysis probabilistic estimation are listed in Table 8
• Bayesian networks • Sensitivity analysis and described next.
• Stochastic simulation • Break-even analysis
Probabilistic risk estimation

The probability of release, exposure and the magnitude of the consequences must be
determined in order to characterize risk. When using probabilistic methods to estimate
financial risk, we assume that it is possible to assess the relative likelihood of uncertain
events that have a financial impact (Hardaker et al., 2004; Chavas, 2005).
Uncertainty is usually expressed in terms of probabilities that are based on either
frequencies or degree of belief. These approaches are respectively referred to as
frequentist and subjectivist views of probability. Savage (2003) provides an excellent
tutorial on using probability to represent uncertainty. In the frequentist school of
thought, probability is defined as a relative frequency ratio. From the subjectivist
school, probability estimates define the degree of belief that the event will occur. The
discussion on random variables given in Savage (2003) introduces statistical principles
that are at the heart of risk analysis.
It is rare for a risk analysis to rely purely on historical data. Data alone may not
reflect uncertainty about specific current and future situations. Consequently, risk
analysts will utilize probabilities based on existing frequency data as well as subjective
estimates to suit their analysis. As illustrated by Hardaker et al. (2004), market hazards
such as the variation in grain price can be based on historical data. However, probability
based solely on historical data could fail to take into account anticipated changes in
grain price due to current international trade talks or similar pertinent issues.
BOX 3
Characterizing financial risk using probability trees: measuring the impact of
infected imported shrimp products on farm profit
A hypothetical farm will receive an annual profit of US$ 512 940. When a WSSV outbreak
occurs, the farm experiences a negative profit of -$1 574 710. The negative profit resulting
from an outbreak reflects the production cost, broodstock loss and lost revenue from
down-time and expenditures such as clean-up costs and start-up costs. These outcome
values are represented in the terminal nodes located at the far-right of the tree.
The secondary nodes in Figure 6 suggest that the probability of an outbreak depends
on whether WSSV-infected frozen commodity shrimp products are present (i.e.
pathogens release in the environment). If infected products are present, the likelihood of
a farm outbreak is 90 percent, and only 1 percent when infected products are not present.
Based on this information, the expected value when infected products are present is 90
percent x -$1 574 710 + 10 percent x $512 710 = $1 365 945. At the left-most parent node,
the expected value is based on WSSV hazard from infected frozen shrimp estimated at 16
percent. Using the same method for calculating expected values as before, the expected
overall farm profit due to the WSSV hazard was not very optimistic at $196 640.
The potential loss due to the WSSV hazard is also useful in measuring risk. Using the
$512 940 as the baseline profit for the farm, the cost of the WSSV hazard is $1 061 770
(= $1 574 710 - $512 940). This expected farm profit of $196 640 and potential loss of
$1 061 770 reflects the farm financial risk due to probability of contamination by WSSV-
infected products.
1
McInerney, Howe and Schepers (1992) and McInerney (1996) define disease cost, or more generally, the
cost associated with a hazard as the output loss + disease expenditure.
Figure 6
Probability tree for a simplified white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) import risk problem.
Created with XLsim (AnalyCorp, 2002)
Created with XLsim (AnalyCorp 2002)
Financial risk can be characterized using expected values and uncertainty described
by variability in the outcome. Probability trees, Bayesian networks and stochastic
simulation are three approaches to calculating expected values and outcome variability
for financial measures.
(a) Probability trees

A probability tree (or scenario tree) is a useful way of illustrating how expected values
and their variability can characterize risk. Probability trees begin with an initial event
and outline the various pathways and outcomes. Each fork signals that a mutually
exclusive event will occur. In traditional probability trees, circles represent the chance
nodes and the consequences (outcome values) are located in the far right. The outcome
value at the end of each pathway represents the terminal wealth, in this case, the
financial measure of interest (revenue, gross sales, net income etc.). The expected value
at each fork is the sum of the probability of each event occurring multiplied by the
corresponding consequences. In evaluating financial risk, a probability tree can be used
to calculate the expected value, the average financial outcome and the range of financial
outcomes. A demonstration of how a probability tree can be used for WSSV import
risk characterization is given in Box 3 (based on Kam, 2006).
Even with the aid of software such as XLsim (AnalyCorp, 2002), it may be difficult for a
risk analyst to identify every possible pathway and the associated financial consequences.
Bayesian networks provide some relief from the burden of determining and manually
accounting for the consequences of all pathways considered in a probability tree.
(b) Bayesian networks

A Bayesian network is a compact representation of a probability tree. Like probability
trees, Bayesian networks consist of chance nodes represented as circles and consequence
(or utility) nodes represented as polygons.3 The relationships between nodes are
specified by joint probability tables. A Bayesian network equivalent of the probability
tree for the simplified WSSV import risk problem is exhibited in Figure 7.
Bayesian networks can be used to calculate the same expected value estimates as
probability trees. The probabilities of complex pathways that are difficult to calculate
in probability trees can be computed easily with Bayesian networks. Consequently,
as problems become more complex, Bayesian networks may be a more eloquent way
3
In Bayesian networks, utility nodes are commonly represented as diamonds. The GeNIe software (2006)
used for the exhibits adopted the convention of trapezoids to represent utility nodes.
Figure 7
Bayesian network example for a simplified white spot syndrome (WSSV) import risk
problem. Created with GeNIe (DSL, 2006)
Release Assessment Probability

Infected retail products 16%
Non-infected retail products 84%
Exposure Assessment Infected Not Infected

Outbreak 90% 1%
No outbreak 10% 99%
Consequence Assessment Farm Profit (US$)

Outbreak -$1 574 710
No outbreak $ 512 940
of characterizing risk. Bayesian networks are also extremely efficient at calculating

the joint and marginal probabilities that are useful for evaluating risky decisions.4 For
example, based on the Bayesian network results for the WSSV import risk problem in
Figure 7, the 15 percent overall probability (marginal probability) of a farm exposure is
evident. Bayesian networks also provide a visually succinct way of communicating the
financial risk problem. Consequently, Bayesian networks have computational as well
as conceptual benefits for complex models.
(c) Stochastic simulation

Stochastic simulation methods are useful when the financial risk is associated with
complex relationships. When stochastic methods are used, the probabilities associated
with each event are based on repetitive sampling (usually Monte Carlo sampling or
Latin hypercube sampling) for a specific number of iterations based on specified input
distributions. A detailed explanation of stochastic simulation methods can be found in
Hardaker et al. (2004).
The input probabilities may be described by a variety of continuous distributions (e.g.
triangular, normal, beta, log-normal, uniform) or discrete distributions (e.g. Poisson,
exponential, user-specified). Since the input variables are defined as distributions,
outcome variables are also characterized by distributions. Therefore, stochastic
simulation permits us to characterize risk in terms of the expected value and the
probability distribution of the financial outcome values of interest. A short example of
a financial risk characterization for a tilapia farm is given in Box 4.
4
Discussed later in the section on Financial Risk Management.
BOX 4
Financial risk due to market and production variation – a bioeconomic stochastic
simulation model for tilapia farm profitability
Engle and Neira (2005) demonstrated a stochastic simulation approach to modelling

financial risk associated with market price and production variation for tilapia farms
using Crystal Ball. Normal probability distributions were used for tilapia sale price
and feed price (market variation). Production variation was modeled based on a
triangle distribution for FCR. Triangular distributions are commonly used when there
is insufficient information to define a normal distribution but the boundaries of the
distribution (maximum and minimum) can be estimated.
The model demonstrates how stochastic simulation can be used to characterize risk
based on the average net return/ha, potential range of net returns/ha range and the
likelihood of profitability for a tilapia farms (i.e. positive net returns/ha). A 97 percent
likelihood of positive profit is indicated by the portion of the distribution to the right of
the dashed line in Figure 8.
BOX 5
Comparing financial risk due to production variation: using stochastic simulation
to compare earthen pond and recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) for shrimp
production
Stochastic simulation was applied to a bioeconomic model for earthen pond and RAS
shrimp production (Moss and Leung, 2006). Parameters for survival, mean harvest
weight, mean growth weight and FCR were the sources of production uncertainty
considered. Probability distributions were specified for each of these parameters based
Based on the simulation results, the risk associated with each farming method was
compared. As exhibited in Table 9, the average cost was higher for the earthen pond
system than the RAS (US$ 7.04/kg vs $4.48/kg), and with a greater range of uncertainty
(US$ 4.66–13.36 vs $3.51–5.97; Figures 9 and 10). Other statistical measures such as the
coefficient of variation (CV = standard deviation/mean) can help to compare the risk
associated with each system. For example, the earthen pond CV was higher than that of
the RAS (0.189 vs 0.088), suggesting that the RAS is less risky financially. A comparison
of the cumulative probability distributions suggests that the RAS systems are more
efficient than the earthen pond systems (discussed later in Box 21).
Stochastic simulation methods are commonly used in conjunction with bioeconomic

production models. A comparative cost analysis for shrimp, for example, was conducted
by Moss and Leung (2006) for earthen pond systems and recirculating aquaculture
systems (RAS). Production, variable and fixed cost assumptions were used to compute
the cost of shrimp production to formulate a financial risk analysis for each system
(see Box 5). Dalton, Waning and Kling (2004) studied market variations in electricity
consumption, electricity price, wage rates and inflation parameters, as well as biological
variations in survival rate and FCR. The cost per fish was compared for different
combinations of production levels and feeding technologies. Valderrama and Engle
(2001) studied the impact of variation in production, yield, shrimp price, seed cost, feed
volume, feed price and fertilizer on shrimp farm profitability in Honduras. Their study
used a variety of financial performance measures to assess financial risk, including gross
receipts, total costs, net returns, net returns/ha, breakeven price and breakeven yield.
Eliciting probabilities is a challenge when complex interactions exist in a stochastic
simulation model. Even when the interactions may be known intuitively, the joint
Figure 8
Probability distribution of net returns/ha (in Kenyan shillings, KSh) for a tilapia farm using pellet
feed in Kenya
.030
.023
Probability
Probability
.015
.008
.000
-100,000 75,000 250,000 425,000 600,000
0
Table 9
Summary statistics for the sensitivity analysis of total, fixed, and variable costs (US$/kg)
Earthen ponds Recirculating aquaculture system
Summary Statistic 
Total Fixed Variable Total Fixed Variable
Mean 7.04 2.56 4.48 4.48 1.29 3.19
Median (50 percentile) 6.80 2.45 4.34 4.45 1.27 3.18
Standard deviation 1.33 0.58 0.79 0.39 0.17 0.26
Coefficient of variation 0.19 0.23 0.18 0.09 0.13 0.08
Minimum 4.66 1.56 3.04 3.51 0.92 2.54
Maximum 13.36 5.00 8.51 5.97 1.90 4.09
Figure 9
Distribution of total shrimp production cost for earthen ponds (US$/kg)
probability distributions can be difficult to define. If data are available, most stochastic
simulation software packages will offer features to help fit a probability distribution
to the existing data. Examples of financial risk assessments using stochastic simulation
methods that rely on probability distributions fitted to industry data are shown in
Boxes 6 and 7.
Figure 10
Distribution of total shrimp production cost for the recirculating aquaculture system (RAS)
(US$/kg)
BOX 6
Using existing data to fit a probability distribution: a probabilistic risk analysis
for the effect of prawn production yield on farm profitability
Probability analysis was used to study the impact of production yield variation on
financial risk (Samples and Leung, 1986). Since a variety of factors (production costs,
feed, water etc.) affect prawn production in a complex way, historical on-farm freshwater
prawn data were used to fit probability distributions for three classes of pond size. Based
on the data, a lognormal probability distribution was found to best model production
variation for each class of farms. Financial risk was measured in terms of the average farm
profit per surface hectare. Based on the results, the smaller ponds were more profitable
(i.e. more efficient with their land) on average, but experienced greater risk reflected in
the variation of profit (Table 10). Our perception of farm risk may be worsened by the
fact that the right-skewness of the profit per hectare data (outcome variable) indicates that
more farms experienced lower profits than the average of their class.
BOX 7
Using existing data to fit a probability distribution: a stochastic simulation for
the effect of uncertainty on catfish farm profitability
Stochastic variables were used in a budget model to estimate financial risk for catfish
farms in the Mississippi Delta (Kazmierczak and Soto, 2001). The stochastic variables
used in the model were farmgate price, catfish yields and feed cost. BestFit (Palisade
Corporation 1997) was used to approximate the distributions of prices and yields from
historical data. Net returns were estimated for different size farms and culture methods
(single-batch or multiple-batch). For both culture methods, the distribution for net
returns (financial outcome variable) was negatively skewed beta distributions for each
farm size. The results suggested that higher than average returns are likely for the farms
modelled in the study. Further analysis suggested that economies of scale exist whereby
larger farms have a lower cost of production.
Table 10
Selected statistical tests concerning the normality of freshwater prawn yields
Profit $US/ha Standard Coefficient
Pond size Skewness
(Number of farms) deviation($US) of variation
< 0.4 ha 2 308 (66) 878 0.38 1.105*
0.4–0.8 ha 2 038 (78) 585 0.29 1.432*
> 0.8 ha 1 813 (47) 523 0.28 1.967*
*p < .001
Non-probabilistic risk estimation

Risk can be characterized using probability estimates (probability trees and Bayesian
networks) and probability distributions (stochastic methods) to model production
and market uncertainty. Probability estimates are useful when expert knowledge or
historical data are available. In contrast, non-probability estimates, described next,
are useful when unprecedented situations and exploration is needed to characterize
financial risk.
(a) What-if analysis

“What-if” analyses are useful for exploring different scenarios – sometimes called
scenario-based analysis. A what-if analysis can be likened to exploring different
paths of the probability tree, but without the probabilities or information about
the likelihood of the scenario occurring. Scenarios can be used to describe multiple
parameters that may change simultaneously. What-if analyses are particularly useful
when the probability of each scenario occurring is unknown, i.e. not suited for
probabilistic risk estimation.
An analysis of the effect of a farm’s size is an example of a scenario-based analysis.
When studying different size farms or production levels, the enterprise operations can
change in terms of equipment, overhead (fixed costs) and operating costs (variable
costs). Usually larger-scale production systems benefit from size economies as a result
of production efficiencies (Kam et al., 2002; Kam, Leung and Tamaru, 2006). However,
this is not always the case, as found for prawn farms by Samples and Leung (1986) and
for catfish farms by Kazmierczak and Soto (2001) (see Boxes 6 and 7).
What-if analyses are also useful for studying the feasibility of different production
systems (e.g. pond, tank fishpond, earthen pond, recirculation system) (Kam et al., 2003,
Moss and Leung, 2006), feeding strategies (Kazmierczak and Soto, 2001) and scope of
operations (Kam et al., 2002). The what-if approach can be used to characterize the risk
associated with different hazards as well as different degrees of hazard release (worst
case, best case and most probable) as described in Box 8.
(b) Sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity analyses are useful for well-established production systems with clearly
defined inputs and outputs (Hambrey and Southall 2002). Instead of using average
(or typical values) to calculate profitability, a range of values is used for a parameter
of interest. A sensitivity analysis usually consists of a table of values reflecting the
range of possible values. Sensitivity is often communicated in the form of percentage
changes, e.g. percent increase in profit with respect to the percentage change in cost.
A sensitivity analysis helps to examine how changes in the variables representing the
hazards of concern affect financial outcomes (e.g. profitability) and identify the most
influential variables in a financial model. In some cases, results of a sensitivity analysis
may be more useful than the financial measure determined by the model.
Sensitivity analyses are frequently used to study the impact that changes in market
prices or biological parameters have on profitability. Posadas and Hanson (2006), for
example, analyzed IRR sensitivity to nursery survival rates and weekly growth for
shrimp. An example of a cost sensitivity analysis due to length of the nursery period
BOX 8
Using existing data to fit a probability distribution: a stochastic simulation for
the effect of uncertainty on catfish farm profitability
Three scenarios were considered in evaluating the effect of disease risk on seabass and
Atlantic salmon producer profitability (Thorarinsson and Powell, 2006). The impact of
vaccination on operating income and net savings was examined for the worst case, best
case and most probable level of unmitigated mortality due to disease. Based on the results
of the analysis, vaccination was concluded to have a positive effect on operating income
and net savings for the salmon producer. Seabass producers generally benefited from
vaccination, except in the best case scenario (i.e. low disease mortality rate of 5 percent),
where the cost of the vaccination could exceed the marginal benefit of decreasing the low
level of mortality.
A sensitivity analysis was also conducted that compared market price with the
changes in income. The results were used to determine the market price required by the
seabass farmer to compensate for the additional cost of vaccination under each mortality
scenario. A break-even analysis was used to estimate the minimum efficacy of the
vaccination in order for the vaccination investment to be worthwhile. As expected from
the what-if analysis results reported above, a seabass producer would require a higher
potency (relative percent survival (RPS) of 25 percent) than the Atlantic salmon producer
(RPS of 8 percent).
BOX 9
Using sensitivity analysis to identify significant threats to profitability: studying
the effect of market and production uncertainty on offshore Pacific threadfin
cage culture
A feasibility study for an offshore Pacific threadfin (Polydactylus sexfilis) cage production
system was conducted for Hawaii (Kam, Leung and Ostrowski, 2003). The hypothetical
six-cage system was based on the biotechnological requirements of and productivity
demonstrated by the Hawaii Offshore Aquaculture Research Project (HOARP).
The total cost of production was estimated at US$ 3.97/lb for the production system
projected to yield 914 271 lb of Pacific threadfin annually. The largest costs contributing
to annual operating expenses of $3 626 556 were feed (30 percent), labour (17 percent),
stocking (12 percent) and shipping (11 percent). Sensitivity analyses were conducted for
several production hazards (average growth rate, stocking density, FCR and survival)
and market hazards (feed price, sale price, seedstock price, leverage and loan interest rate)
listed in Table 11. When comparing the sensitivity of multiple parameters, the changes
in the parameter and outcome values are converted to percentages with respect to a
baseline value. When percentages are used for the sensitivity analyses, the most sensitive
parameters can be determined based on the largest of the unitless measures. Based on the
results in Table 12, production costs are most sensitive to increased stocking densities,
survival rates and average growth rates. Using the sensitivity information, management
can determine which parameter values can be feasibly changed in order to reduce
production costs by a desired amount.
In Figure 11, the changes in the average daily growth rate (horizontal axis) are
compared to production cost and IRR. The graph is useful for determining the growth
rate needed to achieve a desired rate of return. For example, in order to achieve a 20
percent rate of return, fish growth must reach an average of 3.5 g/day, resulting in
estimated production cost of $3.31/lb.
BOX 10
Comparing the sensitivity of multiple parameters: a sensitivity analysis
comparing milkfish production systems on profitability
Kam et al. (2003) conducted economic evaluations of three different commercial milkfish
(Chanos chanos) growout systems in Hawaii. Cost structures and spreadsheet models
were developed for a tank, pond and Hawaiian fishpond system (Table 13). Based on
the observed practices of milkfish culture as a secondary or tertiary crop, capital costs
and several operating costs were prorated to accurately depict current farm practices.
The results of this study were consistent with the Hawaiian farmers’ perspective toward
milkfish as a species that is secondary to core production based upon current market
conditions and input requirements.
A profit sensitivity analysis of the pond and tank systems with respect to sale price,
production yield, labour, feed and stocking indicated that sale price, as expected, had the
largest impact on profitability, followed by feed (Figures 12 and 13). The pond system
was also more appealing based on the incremental returns to variable costs for percent
change in the sale price in comparison to the tank system (Table 14). Cost and profit
sensitivity to the level of milkfish production were also evaluated, but are not presented
here.
was illustrated in Box 2 as part of the Pacific threadfin hatchery case study. In Box 9,
profit sensitivity to changes in market and production uncertainty is illustrated for
Pacific threadfin cage culture.
A sensitivity graph can visually demonstrate the relationship between two variables.
A spiderplot displays multiple sensitivity plots for different input parameters (e.g.
average growth rate, stocking density, FCR, price) as percentages against an output
performance variable such as net income. Consequently, spiderplots are used
to identify which of the parameters have the largest influence on performances.
Examples of spiderplots for tank and pond milkfish production systems can be found
in Box 10.
(c) Break-even Analysis

Sensitivity analyses are also useful for determining breakpoints and threshold values,
as seen in the earlier fish vaccination example in Boxes 8 and 9. This form of analysis is
called a break-even analysis, where only the value of a single parameter is determined.
Annual revenue and expenses, rate of return, market (or salvage value) equipment life
and capacity utilization are common factors studied in break-even analyses (Sullivan,
Wicks and Luxhog, 2007). Break-even analyses are sometimes considered a special case
of sensitivity analysis. These critical values, or switching values, indicate where values
of certain parameters may trigger unacceptable outcomes (Hambrey and Southall,
2002). Boxes 11 and 12 include break-even analysis examples that reflect the critical
values needed to be profitable.
Commentary on quantitative perspectives

Deterministic methods presume that the consequences associated with a hazard are
precisely known. Deterministic estimates do not account for uncertainty. Consequently,
the deterministic case is usually considered as the baseline situation for comparative
purposes. The label “non-probabilistic” risk estimation was used in our discussion to
indicate that uncertainty is present, but is difficult to approximate using probability
estimates.
Other quantitative methods exist aside from the probabilistic, non-probabilistic
and deterministic approaches previously described. In fuzzy set theory, events are not
Table 11
Parameter ranges for sensitivity analyses
Parameter Minimum Baseline Maximum
Average growth rate 1.50 g/day 2.29 g/day 3.50 g/day
Stocking density 80.77 g/m3 109.04 g/m3 484.62 g/m3
FCR 1.00 2.39 2.50
Feed price US$ 0.25/lb US$ 0.50/lb US$ 0.75/lb
Sale price US$ 2.00/lb US$ 4.00/lb US$ 5.00/lb
Seedstock price US$ 0.20 ea US$ 0.29 ea US$ 0.35 ea
Survival 50% 61.8% 100%
Leverage (% borrowed) 0% 0% 100%
Loan rate (30 years) 6% – 12%
Table 12
Production cost sensitivity to parameter changes
Average % Change in Minimum Maximum
Baseline
Parameter production cost for a (change from (change from
(= 100%)
% increase in parameter baseline, %) baseline, %)
Average growth rate - 0.36 2.29 g/day - 34.6 + 52.6
Stocking density - 0.10 109.04 g/m3 - 25.9 + 344.4
Food conversion ratio (FCR) + 0.32 2.39 - 58.2 + 4.6
Feed price + 0.32 US$ 0.50/lb - 50.0 + 50.0
Sale price + 0.03 US$ 4.00/lb - 50.0 + 250.0
Seedstock price + 0.14 US$ 0.29 ea - 31.0 + 20.7
Survival - 2.74 61.81% - 19.1 + 61.7
treated as mutually exclusive, but as having membership (association) with a other

events (Bezdek 1996). Consequently, fuzzy sets convey information about similarities
as opposed to relative frequencies. These quantitative perspectives are contrasted in
Table 17.
Like a bioeconomic model, financial risk characterization links production and
financial (economic) parameters. When the relationships between a hazard and its
financial consequences are formalized in a risk characterization, it is possible to
systematically compare alternative strategies. These linkages are generally specified
during the financial risk assessment (release assessment, exposure assessment and
consequence assessment).
BOX 11
Using sensitivity analyses and break-even analysis to assess critical values:
tilapia farm net return sensitivity to feed price, survival rate and farm size
Engle and Neira (2005) provide examples of sensitivity and break-even analyses
conducted for tilapia budgets by varying feed prices, survival rate and farm size. Useful
information can be drawn from the analyses exhibited in Table 15(a-c). For example,
it is possible to conclude from Table 15a that as feed prices increased from Kenyan
shilling (KSh) 8/kg to KSh 16/g, net returns/ha decreased from KSh 397 812 to KSh
84 284. Breakeven sale prices increased from KSh 62/kg to KSh 92/kg. In Table 15b, as
the survival rate increased from 75 percent to 95 percent, net returns/ha increased from
KSh 149 533 to KSh 274 920 and break-even prices above total costs decreased from KSh
83/kg to KSh 75/kg. In Table 15c, as farm size increased from 0.5 to 8 ha, net returns/
ha increased from KSh 228 445 to KSh 251 803, and break-even prices above total costs
decreased from KSh 156/kg to KSh 9/kg.
Figure 11
Production cost (US$) and internal rate of return (IRR) sensitivity to changes in stocking
density
65% 85% 105% 125% 145%

$5.00 100%
$4.50 $4.96 90%

$4.55 $3.97
$4.00 80%
$4.25 $4.01
$3.66
Production Cost (US$/lb)
$3.50 70%
$3.81 $3.52 $3.41
$3.00 $3.31 60%
IRR
$2.50 50%
$2.00 40%
22.52%
$1.50 30%
18.24%
$1.00 13.62% 20%
8.97%
$0.50 3.63% 10%
$- 0%
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
Avg. Daily Growth Rate over Cycle (g/day)
PreTax IRR
Figure 12
Profit sensitivity for a pond production system.
100%
99%
90%
80%
80%
75%
70% 67%
60%
60%
Return on VC
51%
50%
40%
35%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
% Change in Parameter
Sale Price Yield Feed (% decr) Labor (% decr) Stocking (% decr)
Table 13
Profitability of the three systems evaluated
Profitability Measures Pond Tank Fishpond
1 1
IRR 192.35 %
NPV (US$) $ -362 456 $ -124 189 $ 407 132
Marginal return (Rev-VC, US$/lb) $ 1.20 $ -0.04 $ 1.46
Return on VC 67% 30% 59%
Return on TC -9% -21% 49%
1
IRR value not available because NPV < 0
Figure 13
Profit sensitivity for a tank production system
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
55%
Return on VC
50%
40%
40%
37%
30%
34%
30%
26%
24%
20%
22%
18%
10%
5%
0%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
% Change in Parameter
Sale Price Yield Feed (% decr) Labor (% decr) Stocking (% decr)
% decr = percent decrease
BOX 12
Using break-even analysis to assess critical values: determining off-shore
aquaculture production requirements needed in order to be profitable
A break-even analysis was conducted using an enterprise budget model developed for
the Pacific threadfin off-shore aquaculture enterprise described in Box 9. The minimum
value required to achieve a desired 20 percent 20-year IRR was determined using the
Goal Seek feature in Microsoft Excel.
Based on the results of the break-even analysis in Table 16, the parameter that
would require the smallest percentage change was the sale price, followed by improving
survival rates. Since sale price may be out of the control of the manager, he may consider
improving production methods, striving to achieve a 90.25 percent survival rate or a
growth rate of 3.35 g/day. Other production measures require greater change in terms of
percentages. Managerial insight would be needed to determine which parameters can be
realistically improved in order to earn a 20 percent IRR.
Table 14
Profit sensitivity (return to variable costs) for pond and tank production systems
Pond production Tank production
Return on VC/ Return on VC/
Parameter Baseline % Change in Baseline % Change in
parameter parameter
Sale price US$ 3.00/lb + 1.60% US$ 3.00/lb + 1.25%
Yield (density) 10.00 fish/m3 + 0.74% 100.00 fish/m3 + 0.61%
Labour 797.17 hr/yr - 0.36% 594.43 hr/yr - 0.34%
Stocking (fry price) US$ 0.25 ea - 0.38% US$ 0.25 ea - 0.20%
Feed (FCR) 0.75 - 0.37% 1.50 - 0.42%
Table 15
Sensitivity analyses and break-even analysis
(a) Effect on net returns and break-even price above total cost of varying feed prices
Feed price Net returns Break-even price
(KSh/kg) (KSh/kg) (KSh/kg)
8 397 812 62
10 319 430 69
12 241 048 77
14 162 666 92
(b) Effect on net returns/ha and break-even price above total cost of varying survival rates
Survival rate Net returns Break-even price
(%) (KSh/kg) (KSh/kg)
75 149 533 83
80 181 005 81
85 241 048 77
95 274 920 75
(c) Effect on net returns/ha and break-even price above total cost of varying farm size
Farm size Net returns/ha Break-even price
(ha) (KSh/kg) (KSh/kg)
0.5 228 445 156
1.0 241 048 77
3.0 249 256 25
5.0 250 898 15
8.0 251 803 9
Table 16
Parameter values required for profitability
Value required for Change from
Baseline
Parameter Minimum Maximum profitability baseline
(= 100%)
(> 20% IRR) (%)
Average growth rate 1.50 g/day 2.29 g/day 3.50 g/day 3.35 g/m3 + 46.3%
3 3 3
Stocking density 80.77 g/m 109.04 g/m 484.62 g/m 177.36 g/m3 + 62.7%
FCR 1.00 2.39 2.50 0.891 - 62.8%1
Feed price US$ 0.25/lb US$ 0.50/lb $ 0.75/lb US$ 0.18/lb + 64.0%1
Sale price $ 2.00/lb $ 4.00/lb $ 5.00/lb $ 4.88/lb + 21.8%
Seedstock price $ 0.20/lb $ 0.29 ea $ 0.35 ea –1,2 –2
Survival 50.00% 61.81% 100.00% 90.25% + 46.00%
1
Parameter value required for 20% 20-year IRR outside of sensitivity range.
2
Seedstock price required <US$ 0.00 ea, % change not feasible. (A fry sale price of US$ 0.00 ea yields a 14.44%
IRR).
Table 17
Contrasting the perspectives of different quantitative approaches
Quantitative methods Perspective
Deterministic Certainty exists (no uncertainty, no risk)
Probabilistic Uncertainty exists and is approximated
Non-probabilistic Uncertainty exists and is explored
Fuzzy sets Uncertainty viewed as membership with one or more states
FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT

Risk assessments inform risk management, the process of evaluating and reducing
risks. Risk reduction will depend on the risk management evaluation criteria or
financial objectives. Financial risk management implies that something can be done to
reduce risk with respect to the financial risk objective. The basic process of financial
risk management includes:
• defining the risk management objective(s),
• specifying the decisions that may reduce or remove the hazards, and
• selecting an evaluation and monitoring method.
Risk management objectives

Risk management evaluation criteria are usually based on the outcome measures
identified in the consequence assessment. As suggested earlier, financial risk assessment
objectives are usually based on measures of profitability. In the shrimp production
example in Box 5, the earthen pond system was compared with the recirculation system
based on production cost. In this example, cost minimization could be a risk management
objective, and the decision would entail choosing between the earthen pond system or
recirculation system. A short list of possible risk objectives is presented in Table 18.
Expected utility maximization

The emphasis of the consequences or the evaluation criteria considered thus far has
been monetary in nature. In decision analysis, the criteria can be a single attribute
such as profit or represent multiple attributes. One common method for combining
or converting values into a general measure of utility is through the use of an additive
weighting scheme. According to the principle of rational choice, we prefer alternatives
that maximize our expected utility. The expected utility maximization principle is
conventionally used in decision analysis.
Risk aversion
When a decision-maker is assumed to have a risk-neutral attitude, a simple additive
weighting scheme is used. Risk-aversion and risk-seeking attitudes require that risk be
embedded into the weighting scheme. Utility is a flexible measure that can incorporate
monetary and subjective criteria. Risk attitudes, for example, can be used to adjust
traditional profit-maximizing analyses to reflect risk-averse behaviour (Jin, Kite-
Powell and Hoagland, 2005). For example, when faced with greater risk, risk aversion
may increase and our investment level will decrease. The evaluation methods previously
discussed include methods for balancing the trade-off between profit-maximizing
objectives with uncertainty. A demonstration of subjective expected utilities methods
can be found in Hardaker et al. (2004).
Precautionary principle
The precautionary principle reflects a preventive approach to risk management.
The precautionary principle can be contrasted with “monitor-response” regulatory
Table 18
Examples of risk management objectives and decisions
Examples of decisions to mitigate risk
Risk management objective
Action decisions Test decisions
• Maximize profit Production Threats • Biosurveillance
• Minimize production cost • Crop diversification • Agricultural inspections
• Minimize revenue (production) loss • Harvesting schedule • Monitoring
• Minimize environmental impact • Production contracts • Equipment maintenance
• Maximize employment • Crop insurance • Water quality monitoring
• Poverty reduction • Vaccination
• Biosecurity practice
• Yield (revenue) insurance
Market Threats
• Direct marketing
• Leasing inputs
• Enterprise diversification
• Marketing contracts
• Hedging in futures
• Futures options contracts
• Government subsidy
• Rural development programmes
• Vertical integration
frameworks, which can be viewed as a weak approach since the damage will have
already been done. According to Hambrey and Southall (2002), the reactive approach
is a “permissive principle” that is dangerous when considering hazards whose impacts
are persistent and irreversible. The precautionary principle can be found as Principle
15 of the Rio Declaration of the United Nations Conference on Environment
and Development (UNCED). The principle explicitly states that “where there are
threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be
used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental
degradation.”
At the surface, the precautionary principle could appear to reduce our confidence
in methods highly regarded as having scientific rigor. Yet, by taking into account
the precautionary principle, it is still necessary to identify cost-effective measures to
prevent irreversible damage. Therefore, from the precautionary principle perspective,
risk management methods will not seek to determine if any preventive measures should
be taken, but rather which preventive measures should be carried out.
The Safety-First Rule

The “safety-first approach” is a form of lexicographic utility that is commonly used
in risk analysis. As an alternative to expected utility maximization rules, the approach
specifies that decisions must preserve the safety of a firm’s activities, followed by a
profit-oriented objective. Robison et al. (1984) outline the three safety-first criteria for
use in risk management (see Box 13).
Management Decisions
Risk management explores alternative strategies that potentially reduce consequences,
examines the feasibility of implementing measures and involves periodic review of the
effectiveness of policies implemented. The alternative strategies can be classified as
action decisions and information decisions. Action decisions remove or reduce hazards
to reduce risk – the potential for negative consequences. Test decisions gather evidence
to inform action decisions (Jensen 2001). This perspective of risk management, referred
to as the “test-action” risk framework is illustrated in Figure 14.
Most risk assessment frameworks do not permit a systematic comparison between
different kinds of intervention and existing farmer/fisher activities (Hambrey and
Southall, 2002). However, the test-action risk framework has been demonstrated to be
general enough to compare the effectiveness of different risk management strategies
and compare the relative risk between hazards (Kam, 2006).
BOX 13
Safety-first rules
1. Choose an alternative that maximizes expected returns (Ē),

where the probability of a return less than a specified value (Emin) does not exceed a
stipulated probability (P).
Max Ē, s.t P(E ≤ Emin) ≤ P
2. Choose an alternative that maximizes income at the lower confidence limit (L),
where probability of the a lower income does not exceed a stipulated probability (P).
Max L, s.t. P(E < L) ≤ P
3. Choose the plan with the smallest probability of yielding a return below specified
level (Emin).
Min P(E < Emin)
Actions to remove or reduce hazards

The financial risk characterization examples given in the preceding section on Risk
Characterization illustrated a number of comparative analyses. Such comparisons are
useful for financial risk management and can be viewed as action decisions to remove
or reduce hazards. In the shrimp production cost analysis in Box 5, for example, an
enterprise may use the risk analysis to decide between earthen pond or recirculation
system methods. Feed types (Box 1), production length (Box 2), species (Box 8) and
production level (Box 11) are also examples of risk management decisions that could
improve profitability.
Farm enterprises can reduce financial risk in a number of ways. Farmers can reduce
production threats by diversifying their product mix, changing their scale of production
and re-allocating resources. The financial structure of the farm can be adjusted to
combat market threats (e.g. a change in financial leverage will cause a change in the
debt to equity ratio). Yield insurance is a preventive means of mitigating financial risk.
In exchange for a fixed insurance premium, producers will receive protection from
uncertain but potentially large losses. Like market interest rates, insurance premium
rates may be based on the insured’s return to productive capital, adjustment reflecting
a positive rate of time preference, premium for expected inflation and a risk premium
(Goodwin and Mishra 2000).
Examples of managerial decisions concerning direct marketing and biosecurity
policies can be found in Annex I. Harwood et al. (1999) detail a number of management
actions to reduce risk; other examples of action decisions to reduce risk are given in
Table 18.
Tests to gather information

Tests are performed to gather information that is used to inform decisions. In risk
assessment, an informative test results can reduce uncertainty and be used to revise
release and exposure estimates and the expected utilities of subsequent decisions.
Based on the revised expected utilities, a decision-maker might proceed with a
management plan that reduces potential financial loss.
Figure 14
Risk management viewed as a test and action decisions to reduce consequences
Hazards Market Production

uncertainty uncertainty
Risk
Financial risk
remove or reduce hazard
yes
Test? Test decisions to gather more information
no
Information Data gathered to inform action
yes
Action decisions to remove or reduce potential
Action? hazards. Actions can be made based on
information gathered.
no
Consequences Financial loss

Test information is not usually free. Monitoring, biosurveillance, forecasts and

laboratory analyses are examples of test decisions. Test decisions might incur expenses
associated with labour, materials or revenue foregone. Ideally, the cost of a test will
not exceed the potential financial benefit. An example of a biosecurity risk problem
considering biosurveillance as a strategy can be found in Annex I. Another example of
a test decision will be presented in the section on Decision Trees and Baysian Decision
Networks.
Evaluation methods
In the previous section on Risk Characterization, a number of decision analysis
methods were employed for risk characterization. The following sections briefly
introduce some methods for evaluating financial risk management decisions using
decision analytic methods.
Decision trees and Bayesian decision networks

A common method to represent decision scenarios (a series of test and action decisions)
is to use decision trees. Decision trees are an extension of probability trees (previously
introduced in the section on Probabilistic Risk Estimation). Decision forks are indicated
by squares and can occur at any point along the sequence of events. At each decision
fork, managers can make a decision that maximizes the expected value (or utility).
Many decisions are difficult to model with traditional decision trees because
decisions and outcomes are rarely linear or independent of one another. Test and
action decisions can occur at different stages and in a variety of combinations. For
complex models using decision trees (DTs), analysts must compare the probabilities
of all branches of the tree. In contrast, Bayesian decision networks (BDNs) provide
a succinct representation that clearly indicates the independencies of the model and
efficiently estimates complex probabilities that are difficult for decision trees.
Both DTs and BDNs are used to analyze the impact of a sequence of test and action
decisions to manage risk. In managing financial risk, we seek to determine parameter
values that maximize profitability or to identify parameters that could have a strong
influence on profitability. An example of the simple WSSV import risk model is
presented as a decision tree and a Bayesian decision network in Box 14.
The value of test information can be calculated using DTs and BDNs. As
demonstrated in Box 14, it is possible to observe the “break-even” point that would
cause a decision-maker to not to ban imported products. A calculation of the value of
information (VOI) for test-decisions such as biosurveillance or monitoring can provide
valuable information about the amount that an individual would be willing to pay
for the expected change in outcome. The expected value of information can serve as a
measure of the importance of the uncertain parameter.
In VOI analysis, the results of test-decisions are fed back into a model (DT or BDN)
to inform subsequent decisions using Bayesian inference. The feedback is accomplished
by inverting a DT (or message passing in BDNs) and exploiting Bayes theorem to
calculate the a posteriori probabilities. Research by Forsberg and Guttormsen (2006),
presented in Box 15, studied how the value of price information could be used to
influence production planning. An example of the measurement of the value of
biosurveillance is discussed in Annex I.
Risk programming
Risk programming is frequently used in agriculture for whole-farm planning and
also has a long history of use in aquacultural farm management. Risk management
studies concerning stocking densities, scheduling decisions, level of intensity, scale
of production, level of investment and disease management have employed risk
programming methods (Hatch et al., 1987; Hatch and Atwood, 1988; Kusumastanto,
BOX 14
Risk management using decision trees (DTs) and Bayesian decision networks
(BDNs): movement restriction decisions affecting farm profit
In the simple DT for the policy of a movement restriction (Figure 15), the expected
utility associated with a ban is US$473 483 for the farm. Therefore, from the farmer’s
perspective, an import ban is preferred rather than no movement restriction at all (farm
income of $196 640). These findings can also be represented in the form of a BDN in
Figure 16.
In this simple movement restriction example, the cost of the ban was not explicitly
stated. However, based on the decision tree, the value of the import ban is $473 483 -
$196 640 = $276 843. This reflects the maximum value that a decision-maker would be
willing to pay before the alternatives have an equivalent expected value.
This can be easily seen if we associate a cost with the movement restriction equal to
$273 843. This equality can be seen in the expected values estimated for the movement
restriction decision in Figure 17. (The expected values of the movement restriction are
not exactly the same due to rounding error.) Adding a cost for the movement restriction
requires a few more steps in a decision tree than in a Bayesian decision network. For the
decision tree, the cost would have to be incorporated into the right-most terminal nodes
along the movement restriction “ban” path.
Figure 15
Decision tree for a movement restriction for frozen commodity shrimp
-$1 365 945

Outbreak 90% -$ 1 574 710
Exposed 16%
$ 196 640
No Outbreak 10% $ 512 940
Import
$ 492 064
Outbreak 1% -$ 1 574 710
Not Exposed 84%
$ 473 483
Outbreak 90% -$ 1 574 710
-$ 1 365 945
$ 473 483
Exposed 1%
Ban
$ 492 064
Outbreak 1% -$1 574 710
Not Exposed 99%
Jolly and Bailey, 1998; Valderrama and Engle, 2004). The objectives usually seek to
maximize profit subject to farm resource constraints and other restrictions.
Risk programming utilizes a sophisticated set of algorithms to find an optimal
solution to a set of constraints expressed as equalities and inequalities. Risk programming
is an extension of traditional mathematical programming methods (see Annex II and
Box 16 for examples). In comparison to linear programming, which seeks to optimize
Figure 16
Bayesian decision network for a movement restriction for frozen commodity shrimp
Figure 17
Using a Bayesian decision network to determine the decision cost (US$) in which the
alternatives are equivalent
(e.g. profit-maximize), risk programming oftentimes seeks to minimize uncertainty in

the outcome performance metric. Additional information about risk programming and
mathematical programming models can be found in Hardaker et al. (2004).
(a) E-V efficiency

Expected value-variation efficiency (E-V or mean-variation efficiency) frontiers are
often used to inspect an efficient set of solutions. Efficiency analyses are useful when
the preferences are unknown. In E-V efficiency, an alternative A is preferred to B if the
BOX 15
Value of information analysis. Estimating the value of price information on
salmon farm profit
A salmon farm harvesting model was developed by Forsberg and Guttormsen (2006).
The impact of price uncertainty on harvesting decisions and farm profit was examined.
The premise of their study was based on the notion that price information could be used
to determine if it is more profitable to harvest (and sell) now or postpone harvesting. If a
salmon farmer knew that the salmon price would go down or remain constant, a farmer
would opt to harvest and sell his products. Alternatively, if he found that the price would
increase in the future, he would postpone harvesting until that time. Consequently, DTs
can be used to estimate the value of the market price forecast – even in cases where the
forecast may not be perfect.
The management objective was to maximize NPV. The decision variables was a batch
harvesting decision. The optimal harvest plan was determined for four scenarios:
Scenario 1: Constant price per kg regardless off fish size
(baseline scenario = no information)
Scenario 2: Seasonal adjusted prices, same price regardless of fish size
(imperfect information A)
Scenario 3: Seasonal adjusted prices, dynamic weight dependent
(imperfect information B)
Scenario 4: Actual prices (perfect information).
For each scenario, the value of information (forecast model) is equal to the difference
between the optimal harvest of the scenario, e.g. Ē2, and the optimal harvest of the
baseline scenario, Ē1 . VOI = Ē2 – Ē1. The VOI estimates for each of the information
scenarios are presented in Table 19, where perfect price information is the most
expensive. Based on the results of the analysis in Table 20, a farmer would be willing
to pay at most 165 Norwegian kroner (NKr) for the forecasted price information in
scenario 2, and 313 NKr for the forecasted price information in scenario 3.
BOX 16
Linear programming for a network scheduling model: using linear programming
measuring managerial decisions on profit and effluent discharge
A linear programming model was used by Engle and Valderrama (2004) to compare Best
Management Practices (BMPs) on farm profitability (net returns/ha) and net nutrient
discharge for semi-intensive shrimp farms in Honduras. The decision variables included
stocking density, duration of grow-out cycle and water exchange strategy. In comparison
to most studies that examine profit under production constraints, the BMP study also
considered compliance with effluent discharge limits as a constraint. The study revealed
the burden of additional fixed costs associated with implementing the BMPs, particularly
for smaller farms.
expected utility (E) of A is greater or equal than B, and the variance (V) of A is equal or
less than B, i.e. EA ≥ EB and VA ≤ VB. The E-V efficient set includes only non-dominated
alternatives. The E-V approach is commonly used in optimal investment portfolio
problems, and likewise for analogous resource allocation problems. In conducting
an E-V analysis, each alternative is plotted in two-dimensional E-V space, where the
expected utility is on the vertical axis and the variance is measured along the horizontal
axis. An alternative is said to be E-V efficient if there is no other alternative that lies
in its “north-western” quadrant. An illustration from Hardaker et al. (2004) is given
in Box 17.
Table 19
Harvesting plan, profit and value of information (VOI) for different price scenarios and fish
groups
2 3
May September October Profit (in NOK) VOI
Scenario 1
Group 1 103 (5.3 kg)
Group 2 122 (6.3 kg) 279 000 baseline
Group 3 68 (6.5 kg) 64 (7.2 kg)
Scenario 2
Group 1 54 (2.6 kg)1
Group 2 66 (3.2 kg) 444 000 165
Group 3 78 (3.8 kg)
Scenario 3
Group 1 62 (4.7 kg) 34 (5.3 kg)
Group 2 122 (6.3 kg) 592 000 313
Group 3 139 (7.2 kg)
Scenario 4
Group 1 92 (4.7 kg)
Group 2 109 (5.6 kg) 1 279 000 1 000
Group 3 125 (6.4 kg)
1
Average weight of the harvested fish in parentheses.
2
Profits from operation in the planning period, i.e. (Sales income – Variable cost) – Value of the fish by January 1.
3
VOI is extra profit compared to scenario 1.
BOX 17
E-V efficiency analysis: comparing alternative crop rotation methods
In an example from Hardaker et al. (2004), the impact of crop rotations (alternatives
K, J, I, F, G, H) on profit was demonstrated. Based on the E-V plot in Figure 18, the
alternatives I, J and K are non-dominated and comprise the E-V efficient set that a
manager may choose from. The manager’s choice will depend on his attitude toward
risk. The lines corresponding to utility levels (where, U1 < U2 < U3) are iso-utility
(indifference) curves. The angle of the curves represents typical risk aversion attitudes.
E-V efficient frontiers are also suitable for non-linear programming models.
Non-linear programming, including quadratic programming methods, is used when
the utility functions are non-linear, outcome performance values are not normally
distributed or risk aversion exists for larger consequences. A similar method considers
standard deviation as a measure of uncertainty, called E-S efficiency. (Standard
deviations are equal to the square root of the variance and measure the actual units of
the performance measure.) In E-S efficiency, any alternative is dominated if another
alternative is above and to the left in E-S space. The linear equivalent of E-V efficiency
considers the mean absolute deviation, described next.
(b) MOTAD
In contrast to the use of variance or standard deviation in E-V and E-S efficiency,
MOTAD (Minimization of Total Absolute Deviations) represents uncertainty as the
mean absolute deviation, M. The use of the mean absolute deviation is often desired
because a simpler linear program is required for the solution. In MOTAD the total
deviations are averaged using the probabilities of the states. The mean absolute
deviation is used as a constraint for the problem, and the linear program is solved
for various values of M. The initial value for the constraint is set arbitrarily high and
solved for progressively smaller values of M. An E-M efficient frontier, however,
only provides approximation of the E-V frontier. A variation called Target MOTAD
programming follows the same process, however, a target income is set, and the mean
deviation from the target d is the uncertainty constraint. An example of target MOTAD
risk programming is exhibited in Box 18. A variation on MOTAD programming for
measuring financial risk in aquaculture that been conducted for multiperiod planning
(Kusumastanto, Jolly and Bailey 1998) is given in Box 19.
(c) Scheduling
Risk programming is frequently used to mitigate price risk and yield risk. Stochastic
dynamic programming, for example, has been used to optimize production scheduling
for catfish (Hatch, Atwood and Segar 1989) and shrimp (Hochman et al., 1990; see
Box 20) .
Stochastic efficiency
For stochastic simulation methods, the comparison between alternatives requires more
than a comparison of expected values. Since outcome values may be non-normally
distributed, expected utility maximization will not take into account uncertainty
inherent in the decision. When average values do not adequately reflect the inherent
risk, cumulative distributions functions (CDFs), for example, may represent risk more
effectively.
BOX 18
Target MOTAD risk programming example: a risk-efficiency approach to making
shrimp production plan decisions
A risk programming method by Valderrama and Engle (2002) for shrimp farming in
Honduras evaluated the impact of alternative production plans on expected income. A
linear program (LP) was developed that modelled physical constraints (land, harvest and
transfer) and financial constraints (cash flow requirements, debt balancing and annual
borrowing limits) for three farm-size scenarios. The LP and Target MOTAD were solved
using GAMS (GAMS Development Corporation 2007). An efficient set of production
plans that maximized farm income were determined for each of the farm scenarios. Each
plan described four possible management decisions that met a safety (i.e. target) level
of income: stocking month, stocking density, length of the grow-out cycle and water
exchange regime. An example of the Target MOTAD solution for E-M efficiency is
shown in Table 20.
BOX 19
MOTAD multiperiod programming example: a risk-efficiency approach to making
shrimp production plan decisions
A MOTAD multiperiod programming aquaculture production model was created by

Kusumastanto, Jolly and Bailey (1998). Three types of aquaculture systems (extensive,
semi-intensive and intensive) and three scales of production (2-ha small-scale, 5-ha
medium-scale and 10-ha large-scale farms) were considered. The financial performance
objective was to maximize net present value (NPV). Other financial measures were
observed, including total investment, annual operating cost, net benefit-cost ratio
(NBCR) and internal rates of return (IRR). International price variability with respect
to yield variability was the main consideration of the study. The risk-efficient strategies
were determined for farms in different provinces based on the MOTAD multiperiod
programming.
Figure 18
1
Six crop rotations in E-V space and three indifference curves representing risk aversion
1
Expected value, E[x], and Variation, V[x]. Refer to text for explanation of E-V (Expected Value-Variation)
efficiency.
Table 20
Summary of production activities selected in the resolution of the LP models as outlined by the
GAMS output. Annual farm yields and objective function values (US$) are indicated for three
different farm-size scenarios
Farm-size scenario
Farm size < 150 ha 150–400 ha > 400 ha
(average size) (73 ha) (293 ha) (966 ha)
Annual farm yield (kg/ha) 1 256 1 384 1 401
Objective function value (US$) $790 878 $3 439 390 $12 057 904
Production activities (ha)

10 05 11 LW1 8
10 12 19 LW 25 200 700
11 12 19 LW 40 93 266
01 12 19 LW 8
03 20 11 LW 25 200 700
04 15 21 LW 6
05 15 21 LW 33 93 266
06 15 21 LW 33 200 700
1
Activity codes: Stocking month (10 = October); stocking density (5 PL/m2); length of grow-out cycle (11 weeks);
water exchange (LW = low water exchange rates).
Stochastic efficiency analysis refers to comparing risky prospects based on the full
distribution of outcomes. In stochastic dominance methods, pairwise comparisons of
the outcome distributions are made between alternatives. We assume that the decision-
maker prefers more to less, or a positive marginal utility for the performance measures,
in first-degree stochastic dominance. Graphically, this means that the CDF of one
alternative must always lie below and to the right for profitability performance measures
(or to the left for cost performance measures). Stochastic dominance methods are
frequently used in assessing aquaculture decisions for performance measures including
net returns/ha and production cost (Kazmierczak and Soto, 2001; Dalton, Waning and
Kling, 2004; Moss and Leung, 2006). If the paths of the CDFs cross, neither alternative
dominates based on first-degree assumptions. Other criteria for stochastic dominance
BOX 20
Risk programming for a scheduling problem: a stochastic dynamic programming
model for maricultured shrimp
The difficult task of scheduling shrimp production was investigated using a stochastic
dynamic decision model (Leung et al., 1989, Hochman et al., 1990). The model
determined the optimal stocking and harvesting schedules for a 24-pond shrimp farm
modelled after Oceanic Institute practices in Hawaii. The model took into account
seasonality and market price variation based on historical data and growth variation
based on experimental trials.
Decision rules were expressed as either cutoff revenues based on random market price
and shrimp weight, or as cutoff prices and cutoff weights when only prices or weights
were random. When the current realized value is less than the cutoff value R* (P* or
W*), the decision is to keep the crop and delay the decision to sell for another period.
The cutoff revenue decision is illustrated in Figure 19.
The results of the analysis produced the probability distribution for a crop to be sold
for in any given week. Based on the distributions, the corresponding cutoff values for
revenue, price and weight were determined for each week. An example of the results for
week 13 (November/December) is presented in Table 21.
The scheduling problem was turned into a financial investment problem, where a
farmer would decide if investing in a technology to control the environment (i.e. reduce
undesirable seasonality effects) would be worthwhile. This simulation experiment was
conducted by applying the ideal summer conditions for the entire year. By comparing
the net returns of the controlled environment (Table 22a) with the natural environmental
conditions (Table 22b), the upper limit of the annualized investment cost was determined.
Based on the actual market price data assumed and optimal scheduling policies, a farmer
would be willing to spend about US$ 100 000 for the controlled environment system.
Figure 19
Schematic of the keep sell decision and cutoff revenue
BOX 21
Stochastic efficiency methods to choose between risky prospects: comparing
alternative production systems on total cost of production
The stochastic simulation study by Moss and Leung (2006) in Box 5 compared
production cost for earthen ponds with recirculation aquaculture systems (RAS). Based
on the comparison of the cumulative probability distributions illustrated in Figure 20,
the recirculation system stochastically dominates the earthen pond system.
BOX 22
Stochastic efficiency methods to choose between risky prospects comparing cost
uncertainty between feed technology
Dalton, Waning and Kling (2004) investigated the risk efficiency of juvenile haddock
production systems according to feeding technologies (a combination and scheduling
of rotifers, artemia and inert diet). Based on an examination of the CDFs for different
feeding technologies (Figure 21, Table 24), the late introduction of the inert diet
(microparticulates at 42–180 days; “42 MP”) dominated the alternative feeding
technologies, followed by 35MP and 30MP.
Figure 20
Cumulative distribution with respect to total cost (US$/kg) for earthen ponds
compared with recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS)
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
RAS
Probability
0.6
Earthen Ponds
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Total Cost, $/kg
have increasingly higher restrictions and are increasingly conceptually complex. A list
of stochastic efficiency methods is given in Table 23. The details regarding stochastic
efficiency methods can be found in Hardaker et al. (2004). Two examples of stochastic
dominance based on cost are given in Boxes 21 and 22.
Multiple criteria (trade-offs) analysis

As previously discussed, risk management objectives can be based on financial,
economic, socio-economic or other measures of utility. Risk management may be
further complicated by the need to satisfy the interests of multiple stakeholders, each
with their own agenda. For example, individual farms will have a profit-maximizing
objective, while consumer welfare may be valued from an economy-wide perspective.
Sustainability is also a multifaceted objective comprised of criterion measures. Even
with a farm enterprise, a manager will have several goals that may be in conflict or
require trade-offs. Two methods for handling multiple criteria, or trade-offs, are
Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) and the Analytic Network Process (ANP).
(a) MCDM
MCDM problems involve alternatives that must be evaluated based on conflicting
criteria. Conflicting criteria can exist when there are competing interests (by
stakeholders) or when tradeoffs must be made. Depending on the nature of the
problem, multiple objective programming (MOP) or compromise programming
(CP) may be applied. MOP methods are useful when at most two objectives must
Figure 21
Cumulative distribution of total annual per-fish costs for three feeding technologies.
(MP = microparticulates)
be simultaneously optimized. As more objectives are considered, MOP methods

are difficult for risk management because the number of efficient solutions grows
exponentially. CP methods, in contrast, are best suited for a large number of objectives
because the method searches for a best compromise solution without putting the
burden of evaluating a large number of solutions manually.
Goal programming is another popular MCDM method that is frequently used for
aquaculture planning. Goal programming has been used in aquaculture development and
planning for Thailand (Parton and Nissapa 1997) and Egypt (El-Gayar and Leung, 2000).
An MCDM example for sustainable shrimp farming in Mexico is given in Box 23.
BOX 23
MCDM model for considering tradeoffs: analysing tradeoffs in shrimp
sustainability with competing objectives
An MCDM model was developed by Martinez-Cordero and Leung (2004) to evaluate

sustainable shrimp farming in the northern states of Mexico (Sonora, Sinaloa and
Nayarit). The planning objectives considered were employment (E), foreign exchange
earnings (XG), economic rent (ER) maximization and total pollution (TOTALPOLL)
minimization. Land availability and local market demand constraints were considered.
Management decisions would have to determine the shrimp farming production system
for the five-year period. Three levels of intensity were considered (extensive, semi-
intensive and intensive shrimp farming).
The Feasible Goals software (Dorodnicyn Computing Centre of the Russian
Academy of Sciences 2006) was used to determine the efficient tradeoffs among the four
objectives. As expected with most multi-objective optimization models, the analyses of
the values determined for a single-objective optimizations were higher than the values of
the optimal multi-objective case. This finding is expected since tradeoffs were built into
the optimization problem.
In Feasible Goals, the results and tradeoffs of the MCDM model are presented as
Pareto optimal tradeoff curves (Figure 22). The graphical results of the tradeoff curves
characterized how the three economic objectives (ER, XG and E) were affected by the
environmental objective (TOTPOLL). The results of the model could inform policy-
makers about the location, production intensity and species that would promote
sustainability by taking into account the competing objectives.
Table 21
Cutoff revenue, price, and weight for week 13
Case A: Random revenue Case B: Random price Case C: Random weight
Age Cutoff
Cutoff Cutoff
(x) Ordinal Probability revenue Ordinal Probability Ordinal Probability
price weight
scale to Sell ($1 per 1 000 scale to Sell scale to sell
($/kg) (g/animal)
animals)
1-6 20 0.00 keep 20 0.00 keep 20 0.00 keep
7 19 0.05 101 20 0.00 keep 20 0.00 keep
8 19 0.05 124 19 0.05 6.70 20 0.00 keep
9 17 0.15 137 17 0.15 6.90 20 0.00 keep
10 15 0.25 156 14 0.30 7.09 19 0.05 22.73
11 13 0.35 176 12 0.40 7.45 14 0.30 23.55
12 10 0.50 195 9 0.55 7.71 5 0.75 24.04
13 7 0.65 214 6 0.70 7.95 1 0.95 24.51
14 3 0.85 223 3 0.85 8.08 0 1.00 sell
15 0 1.00 sell 0 1.00 sell 0 1.00 sell
Table 22
Results for scheduling policies based on actual market price data (in US$)
(a) Natural environmental conditions
Average harvest
Average harvest Market price Net returns
Start Stocking In age from stocking Cycle per year
weight (g) ($/kg) (US$)
(wks)
Random Price
Spring 14.00 27.89 3.31 8.84 357 453
Summer 12.50 25.42 3.79 8.43 279 429
Fall 13.25 27.02 3.57 8.78 322 719
Winter 13.50 26.91 3.46 8.60 303 806
Fixed Scheduling
Spring 13.00 25.89 3.54 7.81 100 008
Any Season 11.00 21.79 4.00 6.84 -82 464
(b) Controlled environmental conditions

Average harvest
Average harvest Market price Net returns
Start stocking in age from stocking Cycle per year
weight (g) ($/kg) (US$)
(wks)
spring 14.00 29.18 3.36 9.17 450 879
Summer 13.50 28.15 3.50 9.28 491 672
Fall 13.50 28.15 3.50 8.93 390 147
Winter 13.75 28.67 3.43 9.26 425 630
Table 23
Stochastic efficiency assumptions
Stochastic efficiency method Risk assumptions
First-order stochastic dominance (FSD) Positive marginal utility
Second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) Risk aversion
Third-order stochastic dominance (TSD) Coefficient of absolute risk aversion decreases
with income or wealth
Convex stochastic dominance (CSD) Alternatives are superior than a combination of
the other alternative
Table 24
Per-fish total cost for three feeding technologies (US$/fish)
Feed Technology Mean Median Standard deviation Skewness Minimum Maximum
30 MP1 2.61 2.60 0.25 0.37 1.89 3.78
35 MP 1.94 1.94 0.16 0.46 1.36 2.69
42 MP 1.57 1.57 0.09 -0.06 1.24 1.91
1
MP = microparticulates
(b) AHP/ANP
The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a theory of relative measurement used to
prioritize alternatives based on composite ratio scales that represent relative measures
of preference and feelings (Saaty 1999, 2001). In AHP, judgments are broken down
into complex structures that include benefits, opportunities, costs and risks. Each
alternative is scored on each criterion measure. The criterion scores are combined by a
ratio weighting scheme that reflects the decision-maker’s relative importance for each
criterion. AHP is widely used in multicriteria decision making for resource planning
and allocation and in conflict resolution.
The Analytic Network Process (ANP) extends AHP to problems with dependence
and feedback. ANP is useful for a thorough and systematic analysis of factors
influencing risk and where feedback and dependence are inherent. The AHP/ANP
weighting scheme relies on systematic comparisons, which can be a demanding process
when numerous criteria are considered. AHP/ANP methods are implemented in the
Super Decisions software by Creative Decisions (2005). More information on AHP/
ANP can be found in Saaty (2001).
Decision analysis software to assess financial risk in aquaculture

Decision analysis software packages are frequently used in financial risk analysis in
aquaculture. The software packages mentioned throughout this paper and others are
listed in Table 25.
FINANCIAL RISK COMMUNICATION

Risk communication occurs throughout risk analysis, such that information and the
opinions of stakeholders are incorporated throughout the risk analysis. Results of
the risk assessment and proposed risk management measures are communicated to
decision-makers and stakeholders, and relevant feedback is used to revise the risk
assessment.
Estimating the probabilities can be a challenge. Production threats are particularly
difficult to estimate because they are farm-specific and the data are not usually available.
Common methods employ the use of probability wheels and reference lotteries. Barry
(1984) and Hardaker et al. (2004) offer insights and methods for eliciting subjective
probabilities.
Financial ratios can be a useful communication tool. However, some financial ratios
are complex and difficult for wide audiences to interpret. Since the results of a risk
Table 25
Selected decision analysis software
Software Package Vendor Features
@Risk Palisade Stochastic simulation
Crystal Ball Decisioneering Stochastic simulation
Feasible Goals Dorodnicyn Computing Centre of Efficiency frontiers, decision maps, MCDM
the Russian Academy of Sciences
GAMS GAMS Development Corporation Linear optimization, risk programming
GeNIe Decision Systems Laboratory Prediction, diagnosis, Bayesian networks, Bayesian
decision networks
Goal Seek Microsoft Excel Single-parameter optimization
(feature in MS Excel)
Simetar Simetar, Inc. Regression, stochastic simulation, statistical analysis,
(MS Excel add-in) econometric modelling, forecasting
Solver Frontline Systems Linear optimization, risk programming
Super Decisions Creative Decisions Foundation ANP, AHP, (multi-criteria)
What’s Best Lindo Systems Linear optimization, risk programming
(MS Excel add-in)
XLSim AnalyCorp Decision tree, probability tree
(MS Excel add-in)
Figure 22
Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) optimization: trade-offs between economic rent
and employment. Upper plot: fixed foreign exchange earnings (XG) at $400 million; lower
plot: fixed XG at $500 million
(2, 7.5, 2,
(2.3, 7.3, 2.5, 4)
(2.6, 7, 3, 4)
(2.8, 6.6, 3.5, 4)
(3, 6.3, 4, 4)
(2.3, 7.3, 2.5, 5)

(2.6, 7, 3, 5)
(2.8, 6.6, 3.5, 5)
(3, 6.3, 4, 5)
analysis are meant to inform decision-makers, interpretable results and a transparent

process are necessary. Risk analysts should strive to use the simplest financial measures
that can communicate the major issues.
As witnessed in the examples given throughout this paper, spreadsheet models are
useful in risk analysis. Spreadsheets continue to grow in popularity and can be used by
non-programmers. A number of sophisticated add-ins have been developed for Excel
that can be used to analyze risk. The spreadsheet interface and add-in features assist
in visualizing model uncertainty. Many of the risk analysis results in this paper were
presented as probability distributions, cumulative probability distribution graphs and
decision trees, which are helpful in communicating risk and comparing scenarios to
wide audiences.
The decision analysis methods require that a problem be decomposed. The process
of decomposition creates transparency and fosters communication. Many decision
analysis software packages used in risk analysis are equipped with visual aids.
Probability trees, decision trees, Bayesian networks and Bayesian decision networks,
for example, illustrate causal relationships that can help to communicate the risk
problem and results of the analysis. Consequently, in addition to the analytical benefits
of software packages, the software packages also enable communication and promote
risk understanding.
FUTURE CHALLENGES
Aquaculture ventures are inherently risky. The need to conduct financial risk analyses
to reduce the potential for financial loss is clear. In spite of the variety of rigorous
methods described in this document, it is not clear whether these financial risk analysis
methods are widely put in practice at the present.
Financial risk analysis requires a background in financial analysis methods and
generally requires the assistance of risk analysis tools. Although commercial software
packages are becoming easier to use, farmers and policy-makers may require the
assistance of risk analysts/modellers to decompose their financial risk concerns.
Without the available resources or assistance, practitioners may not view these
evaluation methods as practical or may find existing models unusable. Education,
software accessibility, training and assistance will be needed in order for financial risk
analysis to be widely adopted in aquaculture.
Even if the financial risk problem is decomposed, sufficient data may not be
available to estimate uncertainty and characterize the financial risk. Farm-level cost
and production data and industry statistics are often difficult to obtain. In particular,
aquaculture production data are not regularly collected in surveys conducted by
agricultural ministries or are limited to highly aggregated values. Consequently, risk
analysts are obliged to seek secondary or anecdotal information to approximate the
release, exposure and consequences associated with a hazard.
Methodologically, the linkage between financial risk and traditional risk analysis
is weak. While many studies and techniques are available to analyze financial risk in
aquaculture, the methods are not necessarily linked to the traditional components of a
risk assessment (i.e. release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment
and risk characterization). Financial aspects in traditional risk analyses are frequently
appended to risk assessments formulated for biological, ecological or environmental
risk. Consequently, the financial losses only reflect aggregate values and may disregard
production and price uncertainty. Since financial losses are often an afterthought, the
financial analyst of the risk analysis team may be too far removed from the details and
overlook factors that contribute to financial risk. Thus, it is vital that financial risk
analysis methods be integrated in the early phases of hazard identification and risk
assessment in order to truly manage financial risk in aquaculture.
CONCLUSIONS
In our discussion of financial risk analysis, we claim that the methods can be applied
to most sources of risk, including biological, ecological and environmental hazards.
The financial aspects usually measure enterprise profitability, but can also be used
to measure the performance of an entire industry or economy and consider socio-
economic factors. Financial and related performance measures are critical at the time of
consequence assessment. The methods for release and exposure assessment in financial
risk assessment are less mature than in other areas of risk assessment.
Financial risk assessment relies on static financial analysis tools, such as enterprise
budgets, partial budgeting, cash flow analysis and feasibility studies. Financial risk
assessment methods supplement these traditional tools by considering uncertainty
from market threats and production threats. Uncertainty is characterized using
probability estimates, probability distributions and scenarios.
The decision analysis approach was proposed as the method for financial risk
management. In applying decision analysis methods for risk, we define risk management
objectives (financial or other criteria), consider alternative strategies and select
an evaluation method. A number of evaluation methods were presented that are
implemented in commercial software packages. The graphical software tools and
decomposition of the financial risk problem support risk communication.
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ANNEX I
Financial risk analysis example
Spf wssv-import risk for Hawaii shrimp aquaculture
Specific-pathogen free (SPF) shrimp provide added value to Hawaii’s shrimp export
industry. The Hawaiian SPF shrimp farming industry has been growing steadily
over the last ten years due to a strong international market for SPF broodstock sold
for farm production. From 2002 to 2003, Hawaiian exports of certified disease-free
shrimp broodstock rose from US$ 1.7 million to $2.4 million in sales, growing from 20
percent to nearly 25 percent of the value of Hawaiian shrimp and prawn production.
The SPF label enables Hawaii to market to Asian countries that desire SPF products
or those that are limited to importing SPF products that are free of specific diseases
(Sing 2003). The viability of Hawaii’s SPF industry depends on a number of market
factors, including sale price and demand. Increased competition can exert downward
pressure on SPF sale prices, resulting in lower profit margins for shrimp farmers. The
demand for Hawaii’s SPF products depends on the preservation of the SPF-label and
disease-free image.
The State of Hawaii is a protective haven for a variety of agricultural products;
however, its biosecurity is compromised by the introduction of invasive species and
foreign animal diseases. Viral pathogens threaten the productivity and survival of
Hawaii’s local shrimp industry. Isolated occurrences of infectious hypodermal and
hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV) and white spot syndrome virus (WSSV)
outbreaks have been reported on Oahu and Kauai, signaling that Hawaii’s shrimp
and prawn aquaculture industry may be in imminent danger. Aquatic diseases such
as IHHNV and WSSV are hazards that threaten shrimp production and bring about
financial consequences.
Risk assessment for WSSV

Based on existing literature and the beliefs of local aquaculturists, frozen commodity
shrimp (FCS) were identified as the hazard of interest for investigating WSSV import
risks.
Methodology
A “test-action” biosecurity risk framework was developed that translates biosecurity
decisions into tests and actions for the purpose of analysing biosecurity risk. From
a decision-theoretic point of view, decisions are viewed as having action aspects that
reduce consequences and/or test aspects that gather information (Jensen 2001, Korb and
Nicholson 2004). This perspective on decision-making offers an accounting method
for biosurveillance measures, particularly the value of information resulting from test
decisions. The framework was used to fulfil the research objectives for investigating
WSSV import risk associated with frozen commodity shrimp (FCS):
1) developing a Bayesian decision network (BDN) to model WSSV import risk,
2) determining the “best” policy networks (i.e. combinations of policy decisions)
and
3) estimating the value of biosurveillance for mitigating WSSV import risk.
A BDN is a specific type of influence diagram that can be used for modelling
causality, defining preferences based on expected utilities and incorporating uncertainty
for decision-making using Bayesian calculus. A BDN was created based on the test-
action biosecurity risk framework to model the impact of WSSV biosecurity policies,
Figure 1
Full white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) biosecurity import risk Baysian decision network
(BDN). (Numbers located on each island submodel reflect the number of active shrimp
farms assumed)
including a national movement restriction, biosurveillance and SPF zoning for FCS
retailers (Figure 1).
Release assessment
According to trade data and country disease status, an estimated 32 percent of Hawaii’s
FCS products are infected with WSSV. The primary pathway of exposure was identified
as contamination from imported FCS that are either sold for consumption or as fishing
bait. According to the WSSV epidemiological pathways assumed (Kam 2006), both
humans and animals were considered to be vectors for transporting infected FCS
products from dump sites, fishing sites and shrimp trucks. Unavoidable environmental
risk (e.g. WSSV-carriers live in the ocean) was also included in the model to account for
uncertainty. When no intervention is taken, the retail threat is equal to the Hawaiian
FCS disease prevalence of 32 percent.
Exposure assessment
Farm WSSV exposure depends on a farm’s location. Infected products sold by
retailers can reach a dump site, becoming a dump threat to a nearby farm (Figure 2).
Similarly, infected bait shrimp sold by retailers can be left at fishing sites, posing a bait
threat to a nearby farm. The infected products can reach a shrimp farm by human or
animal vectors. The average farm in the 13-farm statewide model had a 15.9 percent
probability of WSSV exposure based on the complex interaction of environmental
threats surrounding each farm. The probability of farm exposure would be higher for
farms with a higher-than-average combined environmental threat.
The probability of a farm outbreak depends on a farm’s exposure to WSSV and the
farm’s level of biosecurity. For the average farm included in the model, the probability
of a farm outbreak was estimated at 14.0 percent. Farms with above-average levels of
biosecurity would have a lower probability of an outbreak.
Figure 2
Baysian decision network (BDN) example for single farm exposure
Farm outbreaks depend on farm characteristics, including environmental threats

and farm biosecurity. Environmental threats (fishing bait threat, dump threat, truck
threat and retail threat) increase a farm’s potential exposure to WSSV. For a given level
of WSSV-exposure, farms with higher levels of biosecurity have a lower probability of
an outbreak.
Risk management
Thirty-two central policy combinations of SPF zoning, biosurveillance levels and
national movement restrictions were examined using the WSSV biosecurity import risk
BDN. The 32 management strategies (or “policy networks”) were compared based on
farm profit, retail profit, state expenses for biosurveillance and the factors combined.
According to the expected value for each strategy, the policy that maximized the
overall impact (retailer profit and farm profit, less biosurveillance expenses) was a
United States movement restriction that prohibits the import of FCS from WSSV-
positive regions. Without factoring in any direct costs due to a movement restriction
or economy-wide aspects, a movement restriction resulted in an overall increase of
$12.21 million (20.4 percent of the baseline overall impact of $60.04 million). Since no
costs directly associated with the movement restriction were considered, the $12.21
million also represents the value or maximum amount we would be willing to pay for
the benefits of the movement restriction policy.
When a movement restriction was simulated, retail profit increased to $66.22 million
and farm profit increased to $6.04 million from the baseline values of $56.8 million and
$3.24 million, respectively. While additional SPF zoning and biosurveillance generally
benefit the farm, retail profit decreases because retailers must purchase higher-cost SPF
shrimp locally (Figure 3).
In the WSSV import risk model, the cost of a United States movement restriction
was not specified. However, the results of the simulation experiments suggest that the
Figure 3
Comparing retail profit, farm profit, and state expenses under a national movement
restriction policy
movement restriction was worth $12.21 million based on the cost assumptions. If a
United States movement restriction is considered too prohibitive, the next best policy
was statewide SPF zoning. A statewide SPF zoning policy resulted in an increase of
$4.62 million in the overall impact. Under statewide SPF zoning, farmers increased
profit by $30.23 million due to the additional sale of SPF shrimp that served as a
Figure 4
Comparing retail profit, farm profit, and state expenses under state policies (no
movement restriction)
Table 1
substitution for local FCS consumed. The Effect of a specific pathogen free (SPF) farm zone policy
result suggests a policy trade-off because Assessment endpoint Baseline Farm SPF zone policy
retailers would incur a loss of $25.61 Epidemiologic
million due to lower profit margins due to Retail infected 31.86% 31.74%
higher-cost SPF shrimp (Figure 4). WSSV detected 0.00% 0.00%
Retail threat 31.86% 31.72%
Additional biosurveillance was an
Farm exposure1 15.88% 8.78%
inferior policy. When no movement Farm outbreak1 13.97% 8.26%
restriction was considered, biosurveillance Financial
had a negative effect and under any level Farm profit $ 3 235 770 +1 412 1002
of SPF zoning. The negative consequences 5.4% +2.35%2
resulting from biosurveillance were due to Retail profit $ 56 804 400 -102 8002
94.6% -0.17%2
two types of costs. The first consequence
Overall impact $ 60 040 170 +1 309 3002
was the direct cost of statewide
100.0% +2.18%2
biosurveillance, estimated at $69 000, 1
Average value.
$972 000 and $1.07 million for farm-level, 2 Increase (+) or decrease (-) from baseline value.
island-level and statewide biosurveillance,
respectively. The second consequence was
due to the small possibility of WSSV-positive test findings, resulting in non-saleable
products and a loss for retailers.
SPF zoning requires that the local shrimp aquaculture industry supply retailers with
SPF shrimp products. Farm production would have to increase by 13x the current level
of production for island-level SPF zoning and 15x for statewide SPF zoning in order
to satisfy FCS consumption. The increase would mean either an increase in production
by existing farms, the establishment of new farms or both. However, it is unlikely that
the Hawaiian industry could grow to the size necessary to satisfy the estimated FCS
consumption levels.
Consequently, in order to efficiently manage WSSV import risk, policy-makers may
consider farm-level SPF zoning. The baseline level of farm production can satisfy the
estimated level of FCS retail sales within the one farm-zone located on Oahu. Farm-
level SPF zoning mainly benefits the three farms located in the zone where WSSV
exposure is potentially high. Even with the protection of the SPF zone, the model
considers the risk of infected retail products coming from outside of the SPF farm-
zone. Therefore, after considering the retail threat from outside of the zone, the SPF
farm-zone resulted in a $1.31 million increase in the overall impact, 2.18 percent of the
baseline overall impact (Table 1). Since the volume of retail products sold in the SPF
zone was quite small, the retailers only lost 1.71 percent of the baseline overall impact,
equal to a loss of $102 800. In contrast, farm profit increased by $1.41 million due to
the decrease in WSSV exposure in the SPF zone. A farm-level SPF zone was estimated
to reduce the average farm exposure and farm outbreak to about half of the baseline
values, to 8.8 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively.
Only the direct costs of biosurveillance were considered in this risk analysis. Costs
for a national movement restriction, SPF zoning and other economy-wide impacts
could give a complete picture of the overall benefit of central policies aspects were not
considered. While additional costs of SPF zoning are not considered, the analysis of the
effects of the SPF farm-zone tells us that such a policy would be worth $1.31 million
based on the WSSV import risk BDN assumptions. Since retailers experience a loss of
$102 800, policy-makers or farmers could consider compensation for the retail loss by
offering subsidies or a discount on SPF products sold by farms to retailers within the
farm-zone.
In the biosecurity import risk model, the retailer was designed to experience
a negative impact due to a biosurveillance policy that prohibited the sale of the
proportion of products that test positive for WSSV. Clearly, retailers would be wary
of such an unfavourable biosecurity policy. The risk of expected losses resulting from
biosurveillance, however, could serve as incentive for retailers to comply with SPF
zoning or to purchase products from WSSV-negative regions. As observed in Figures 3
and 4, biosurveillance was only marginally beneficial at the farm-zone level. Therefore,
SPF zoning and more generally, retailers’ compliance with purchasing pathogen-free
products may be preferred over other forms of biosecurity strategies.
ANNEX II
Partial budget analysis example
Using a partial budget to compare marketing strategies for different size

farms
Hawaii’s ornamental aquaculture products are held in high regard among producers
and aquarists worldwide. Aquaculture ornamentals branded “Made in Hawaii” often
evoke a mystique of rare, exotic and natural products. Their desirability is partly due
to Hawaii’s pristine tropical environment, which supports year-round production and
is conducive to producing disease-free, healthier and higher quality fish.
Despite the positive reputation of Hawaii’s ornamentals, the local aquaculturists
find it difficult to compete in the global niche market. Asian competitors leverage low
prices and product variety to penetrate the United States market. In 1992, the Los
Angeles port, which is used by most Asian wholesale ornamental fish distributors, was
the destination port for 39 percent of all United States ornamental aquaculture imports
(Chapman et al. 1994). Hawaii’s ornamental aquafarmers could tap the United States
mainland West Coast market, which is predominantly served by Southeast Asia and
Florida wholesalers. Wholesalers provide a value-added service, creating additional
layers in the ornamental fish distribution network. Wholesalers often operate in
tandem, where secondary wholesalers sell their products to primary wholesalers,
who distribute products directly to retailers. Each of these layers in the distribution
network cuts into an ornamental aquafarmer’s potential profits.
Optimal product mix

A spreadsheet model was used to determine the ornamental product mix that
maximized net sales based on farmgate price, water consumption, pack density and
overpack allowance. The species in the product mix were selected based on their ability
to contribute to the farm’s profit. Each product line’s contribution to farm profitability
is affected by the profit on the sale of each fish, stocking density and pack density for
each product. The optimization model maximizes profit by varying the farm’s product
mix, while constrained by the maximum and minimum number of species, harvestable
capacity, supply (minimum) and demand (maximum). A description of each of the
constraints appears below in Table 1.
In general, a farm will want to produce highly valued fish that are in demand. High-
value fish, however, are usually stocked and harvested at densities lower than fish of
less value, utilizing more of a farm’s production capacity. In addition, pack density is
typically lower for highly valued fish than for less valuable fish, resulting in increased
shipping costs per fish and the landed price of each product. Restricting demand for
each product prevents an enterprise from overproducing highly valued fish that earn
Table 1
Constraints used in the ornamental product optimization worksheet
Parameter Constraint
Product lines minimum ≤ no. of products ≤ maximum
Harvestable capacity gallons harvested ≤ harvestable capacity
The harvestable capacity (in gallons) was assumed to be 25% of the total water
capacity of the farm based on the 3 to 4-month production cycle.
Supply specie production quantity ≥ minimum production quantity
The minimum production quantity for a selected product line (default of one
case per month).
Demand specie production quantity ≤ maximum production quantity
The maximum product quantity for a selected product line (default of one case
per buyer-week).
Table 2
Summary of key farm characteristics
Farm characteristics Small farm Large farm Co-op farm
Total water capacity (gal) 27 000 180 000 540 000
Maximum harvest capacity (gal) 6 750 45 000 135 000
Average number of fish per week 2 677 16 186 48 980
Average number boxes per weekly order 2 5 5
Fish product variety 8 26 40
Estimated number of customers 5 10 30
Average shipping weight per weekly order (lbs) 59 144 148
high profits after taking into consideration its landed price. All of these factors are
incorporated in the optimization of a product mix.
The optimal product mixes for three farm scenarios were based on a secondary
wholesaler analysis in which air cargo shipping fees and box charges were passed
onto a primary wholesaler distributing to Washington State retailers (see Kam, Leung
and Tamaru 2006 for details). The freshwater ornamental product mixes, yielding
annual farmgate sales of US$ 57 649, $227 066, and $703 732 for small, large and
co-operative farms, respectively, were used in the partial budget analyses. Selected
factors differentiating the three farm scenarios are exhibited in Table 2.
Partial budget analysis

A partial budget reflects the additional costs and revenues that result from a shift in
business strategy, in this case, direct marketing to retailers (or primary wholesaling).
The net change in income (difference between positive and negative impacts) is an
estimate of the net effect of making the proposed change from farmgate sales to direct
marketing to retailers. A positive difference indicates the potential increase in income
if the change in strategy is made. Conversely, a negative difference is an estimate of the
reduction in income if the change to direct marketing is adopted. Costs considered in
this partial budget analysis included changes to shipping, marketing and risk associated
with United States mainland West Coast distribution.
The results of the partial budget analysis was used to determine the feasibility
for farmers to direct-market their products to the United States and to distribute
products through United States mainland wholesalers are given in Tables 3 and 4,
respectively. Direct-marketing was found to be profitable for the large and co-op
farm sizes. Wholesaling to mainland distributors was not a profitable strategy for any
of the produce scenarios. Break-even analyses exhibited in Tables 3 and 4 were used
to determine the minimum-mark-up on farmgate prices in order for the change in
strategy to be beneficial (i.e. to achieve a positive net change in income).
Table 3
Summary of direct marketing (primary wholesaling) partial budget and break-even analyses (all
figures in US$)
Partial budget analysis Small farm Large farm Co-op farm
Wholesale revenue $151 264 $602 810 $1 863 247
Farmgate revenue 57 649 227 066 703 732
Total positive impacts (change in revenue) 93 615 375 743 1 159 515
Shipping and handling 36 091 145 998 456 489

Marketing costs 37 933 94 148 172 114
Reduced returns
(Non-payment and excess mortality) 22 690 90 421 139 744
Total negative impacts 96 714 330 567 768 346
Net change in income (NCI), assuming a 200% farmgate

markup1 (67% gross margin)2 ( 3 100) $45 176 $391 169
NCI as a % of change in net sales -3.31% 12.02% 33.74%
Break-even Analysis
Wholesale markup on the farmgate price1 207% 174% 135%
Gross margin on sale price2 67% 64% 58%
1
In this analysis, markup refers to the percentage calculated using the difference between sale price and farmgate
price, divided by farmgate price: markup = (sale price – farmgate price)/farmgate price.
2
The gross margin refers to the percentage calculation based on the difference between the sale price and
farmgate price, divided by the sale price: gross margin = (sale price – farmgate price)/sale price.
Table 4
Summary of secondary wholesaling partial budget and breakeven analyses (all figures in US$)
Partial budget analysis Small Farm Large Farm Co-op Farm
Wholesale revenue $76 866 $302 755 $938 309
Farmgate revenue 57 649 227 066 703 732
Change in revenue 19 216 75 689 234 577
Shipping and handling paid by retailer 21 405 68 760 213 534
Total positive impacts 40 622 144 449 448 111
Shipping and handling 24 291 82 818 256 820

Marketing costs 33 257 74 566 114 197
Reduced returns 13 670 52 290 81 050
(Non-payment and excess mortality)
Total negative impacts 71 219 209 673 452 068
Net change in income (NCI) assuming a ($30 597) ($65 224) ($3 956)
33% farmgate markup1 (25% gross margin)2
NCI as a % of change in net sales -159% -86% -1.7%
Break-even Analysis
Wholesale markup on the farmgate price1 101% 70% 34%
Gross margin on sale price2 50% 41% 25%
1
In this analysis, markup refers to the percentage calculated using the difference between sale price and farmgate
price, divided by farmgate price: markup = (sale price – farmgate price)/farmgate price.
2
The gross margin refers to the percentage calculation based on the difference between the sale price and
farmgate price, divided by the sale price: gross margin = (sale price – farmgate price)/sale price.
209
Social risks in aquaculture
Pedro B. Bueno
Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the Pacific (NACA)
P.O. Box 1040
Kasetsart Post Office
[email protected]
Bueno, P.B. 2008. Social risks in aquaculture. In M.G. Bondad-Reantaso, J.R. Arthur
and R.P. Subasinghe (eds). Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture.
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper. No. 519. Rome, FAO. pp. 209–228.
ABSTRACT
Social risks are challenges by stakeholders to companies’ business practices due to real
or perceived business impacts on a broad range of issues related to human welfare – for
example, working conditions, environmental quality, health or economic opportunity.
The consequences may include brand and reputation damage, heightened regulatory
pressure, legal action, consumer boycotts and operational stoppages – jeopardizing
short- and long-term shareholder value. This definition of social risk can be suitably
adapted for aquaculture at the sector, industry, company, farmer group or individual
farm level. The definition provides a departure to the concept of origin of risk. To bring
social risk analysis to a degree of simplification and system, one should start by defining
aquaculture’s spheres of social responsibility; identifying the stakeholders to which it has
to be responsible and drawing from codes of conduct, codes of practices, ecolabeling and
certification schemes, labor standards, food safety standards and environmental standards
a list of hazards that could turn into social risks. This review borrows from ecological
risk assessment to illustrate the process of social risk estimation, the practical application
of which is to predict the types of challenges and their degrees of severity so that an early
and cost-effective response can be devised to address them. Another point of difference
between social and other risks is that social risks are strategic risks. For strategic risks,
in contrast to traditional compliance or hazard risks, risk and opportunity are two sides
of the same coin. This makes it necessary and desirable to adopt an integrated approach
to strategic risk management. A strategic risk that is anticipated early and mitigated
well can be converted into a new market, a competitive advantage, a stock of goodwill
or a strategic relationship. An aquaculture risk data bank could be created in which all
possible hazards and risks are classified as to their nature, causes, consequences, impacts,
severity of impacts, likelihood of occurrence and other characterizations. Among other
applications, this could be, a helpful tool for risk analysis and reference for commercial
insurers and governments. The review concludes with the proposition that a social risk-
free environment that is predicated on socially responsible behaviour promotes sustained
growth and development.
INTRODUCTION
A literature search on social risk analysis has indicated the following state of the art:
(i) the practice of assessing and managing social risks is common among corporate
bodies, especially multinational corporations; (ii) it is widely used in project risk

analysis for which guidelines have been developed (i.e. risk analysis and management
for projects) or are being developed (social risk and opportunities tool kit); and (iii)
social risk management and protection is a relatively new concept in addressing
poverty and welfare issues among the poor and vulnerable by such institutions as the
Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank (WB) (Holzmann, 2001; ADB,
2003).
In terms of risk management, the difference between social risks and technical risks
such as pathogens is that the latter focuses on point solutions. These are specific actions
to mitigate particular sources or impacts of risk. On the other hand, the approach
to social risk, because of its complex origins and impacts, is integrated management
(Bekefi, Jenkins and Kytle, 2006). This is probably one of the reasons for the lack
of any standardized, widely accepted method, guidance or manual on social risk
analysis, apart from those developed for project risk analysis in which social risk is
incorporated. There is as yet no formal guideline or agreement issued or arrived at by
the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) or other organization, on social risk analysis that is
comparable to those on food safety, pathogen, ecological and import risks.
DEFINITION OF SOCIAL RISK IN AQUACULTURE

This review takes the perspective of the corporate sector on social risk, i.e. “Social risks
are challenges by stakeholders to companies’ business practices over social consequences“
(Kelly, 2005); and, with perceptions factored in, “Social risks are challenges by
stakeholders to companies’ business practices due to real or perceived business impacts
on a broad range of issues related to human welfare – for example, working conditions,
environmental quality, health, or economic opportunity. The consequences may include
brand and reputation damage, heightened regulatory pressure, legal action, consumer
boycotts, and operational stoppages – jeopardizing short- and long-term shareholder
value” (Bekefi, Jenkins and Kytle, 2006). The emergence of social risk is characterized
by four components in combination: an issue, a stakeholder or group of stakeholders,
a negative perception about the company and the means to do damage, as illustrated
in Box 1.
Box 1 These essentially similar definitions of
Components of social risk social risk made from a corporate viewpoint
can be suitably adapted for aquaculture at the
• Issue – Social and environmental issues like sectoral, industry, company, farmer group
climate change, disease pandemics and mass and individual farm levels as: Social risks in
urbanization. aquaculture are challenges by society to the
• Stakeholder – In addition to traditional practices of the sector, industry, company or
stakeholders, includes civil society farm over the perceived or real impacts of
organizations, international agencies and these practices on issues related to human
even individuals. welfare.
• Means – Mobilize large (or small but The “polluter pays” principle demonstrates
strategic) networks of allies; communication this definition. A farmer compensates society
over the Internet; influence public opinion; through a tax or a license fee for the cost of
boycotts, protests; court action, etc. repairing damage from his pollution; or he
• Perception – Information about companies assumes the cost by investing in a system to
from official news sources, the Internet, prevent his operation from causing pollution.
word of mouth and the company itself; can Otherwise, the farm could become the target
be accurate or inaccurate. of challenges from the harmed community or
from other interest groups that perceive the
Source: Bekefi, Jenkins and Kytle, 2006. harm and act on behalf of the community.
For instance, the government could impose
a penalty or an activist group could file a Box 2

legal action. Spheres of social responsibility of the
This definition also suggests three aquaculture sector
spheres of social responsibility, which for
the purpose of this review are classified as 1. Internal social responsibilities
internal, external and global. The internal • farmer
sphere would encompass responsibilities • household
to the farmer, his/her family and the farm • workers
workers (as well as the cultured animals!); • cultured animals
the external sphere would be responsibility 2. External social responsibilities
to the community in which it operates, other • community stakeholders
users of community resources and the most • suppliers
proximate players in the value chain such • product buyers
as suppliers, buyers and processors; and the • processors
global sphere would include responsibility • traders
to the rest of the stakeholders, especially 3. Global social responsibilities
consumers but also aquaculturists in other • consumers
countries (Box 2).1 • aquaculture industries in other countries
• mass media
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION • civil society organizations
The broad and usually interlinked social and • activist groups
economic impacts of risks include loss of
livelihood, loss of income, loss of market,
loss of assets and loss of capacity to work productively. From this perspective, just
about any hazard has the potential to translate into a risk that has social impact. For
instance, a natural disaster that not only wipes out the crop but also destroys farm assets
and erodes the topsoil or silts up the pond will result in loss or severe and prolonged
disruption of livelihood for the farmer and unemployment for the workers.
Civil unrest, threats to peace and order and widespread poverty and social inequalities
are by themselves social hazards. But these are not results of socially or environmentally
irresponsible practices of aquaculture. A farm or a company deciding to locate in an
area considered high-risk because of social unrest is expected to make a decision
analysis on the basis of an already known hazard that could threaten the viability of
its operations. Similarly, farms or enterprises located in an area where risks of a social
nature or origin are imminent or suddenly occur would need to weigh management
options, i.e. pull out and avoid the risk or stay and initiate risk management actions.
This falls under project risk management. But it is relevant – project risk assessments
include a social risk assessment, which could be a useful method to adopt for analysis
of risks to aquaculture. It is instructive in that an evaluation of social risks to a project
includes their impacts on project costs and viability (see Box 3).
Furthermore, aquaculture or any other economic sector has nothing to do with
spawning the most serious hazard of all, bad government, although opportunistic
behaviour from the industry could abet it. However, there are actions that farmers
and industry can adopt to improve the sector’s management and governance, including
voluntary or self-management measures and co-management arrangements, forging
1
In this review, civil society organizations, mass media and activist groups are classified under the category
of external responsibilities because their functions are to report, articulate and interpret issues or act as
watchdogs on behalf of society in general or of certain groups of stakeholders. A significant portion
of the efforts from corporate bodies and industries to manage strategic risks consists of dealing with
these groups. The likelihood of a perceived social risk being noticed and broadcast has increased with
the proliferation of empowered stakeholders in the global environment, particularly nongovernmental
organizations (NGOs) and new forms of media whose own justification for operation depends on their
capacity to demonstrate impact (Kelly, 2005).
Box 3
A model for social risk assessment and management for projects
Projects located and run in unstable environments could inadvertently trigger or sustain
violence or become the focus of resentment. Violent conflict represents a threat to life,
security, growth and prosperity for affected communities. Conflict also undermines
decades of economic development and destroys the social harmony of a locality, country
or region. In the context of a project (such as establishing a mining operations), social
risks and opportunities are essentially related to a project’s local stakeholders and their
perceptions and interactions with the project and the organizations delivering it (i.e. the
client and their contractors). Social risk can often be visualized as the gap between the
boundary of responsibility that these organizations acknowledge and that perceived by
their stakeholders. A project social risk assessment model (from Anon., 2006) that could
be adapted for aquaculture is illustrated below:
PROJECT SOCIAL RISK MODEL
SOCIAL CONTEXT
(national level & project level)
Two-way relationship
INADEQUATE/ PROJECT
INAPPROPRIATE
CONTRIBUTIONS PROJECT
TO LOCAL
COMMUNITIES RISKS
LACK OF
POOR
STAKEHOLDER
SOCIAL
ENGAGEMENT LICENCE
TO OPERATE COMMERCIAL
SIGNIFICANT
NEGATIVE
&
SOCIAL & REPUTATIONA L
ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS RISKS
The two-way interactions between a project and the economic, political, socio-
cultural and security context in which it is constructed and operated will shape the
social risks facing that project: just as a project will be affected by the local and national
context, the project itself will also have an impact on this context. To understand and
identify social risks, it is important to first understand the context and this two-way
relationship. The model outlines how the interactions between a project and its context
and stakeholders may generate social risk and opportunities for the project. The diagram
provides a basic model of these interactions. In particular, it highlights the link between
a lack of “social license to operate” and the generation of risks to the project that would
impact on its commercial viability as well as reputation.
alliances with each other as well as with other stakeholders such as the science and
technology sector, and organizing into well-run professionalized farmers’ associations.
Below is a list of social, economic and political hazards to any economic activity:
• civil unrest or civil strife,
• social tension,
• political instability,
• rampant poverty (a proxy to weak government),
• high unemployment (an indicator of horizontal inequality between groups),
• social exclusion (highly defined inequality in access to services and resources),
• tendency of government to solve social conflicts by military action,
• lack of independent judiciary (for dispute resolutions),

• insufficient regulatory system,
• excessive regulation,
• poor or weak governance, and
• economic crisis.
The essence of the definition of social risk – i.e. a challenge by society to a practice
or the practices of an entity – precludes these aforementioned situations in risk analysis.
This does not mean they should be ignored; their potential impacts can be very severe
and they are abetted by improper practices in the sector. Small farmers, who are most
vulnerable to these risks, need to be assisted to deal with them.
Another category of hazards consists of those that tend to prevent farmers from
adopting, or to make risk-averse ones reluctant to adopt, strategies (such as crop
diversification or intensification) or practices (such as an effluent treatment system)
that improve their livelihoods or management. Examples are ill-defined property
rights, lack of protection of assets, seasonality or unreliability of labour, perception of
loss of profitability and a number of those listed above.
Economic hazards that are spawned in the market and industry, such as changes
in consumer preferences and tastes, appearance of substitutes, development of
competitive products and market volatility, invariably translate to social risks. The
most extreme consequence would be the collapse of a commodity industry and closure
of farms, resulting in widespread unemployment and the loss of livelihoods or income
opportunities for communities and service sectors dependent on the commodity
industry. This group of hazards, to be sure, is not perpetrated by practices within
the aquaculture sector; but failure to identify them could be attributed to a variety of
reasons within the industry or sector, such as lack of foresight, wrong interpretation of
market trends or plain lack of capability for market intelligence.
In view of the above discussion, this review will concentrate on hazards that
potentially provoke a challenge that has a social impact on a farm, an industry or the
sector. Based on the definition and using the spheres of social responsibility as basis for
identifying hazards, these would include those listed below (Table 1) as examples.
The above examples of hazards are in fact strategies, practices, facilities or substances
the uses of which are meant to improve productivity and profitability. Their improper
practice or misuse, whether inadvertent or deliberate, could result in adverse impacts
on stakeholders. In the case of technologies (obviously useful by themselves), the
introduction of devices that displace workers in a social setting that is poor and where
there is excess labour could reflect adversely on the reputation the farm. It could breed
resentment from the community because of lost job opportunities (a similar challenge
could be provoked by hiring practices). The same applies to technology that requires
higher skills, which would displace unskilled or lower workers. A farm or corporate
body that neglects to train its workers and finds it more convenient or more efficient
to replace them could generate the same response of resentment or direct hostile action
from the community.
Worker relations and hiring and purchasing practices pose a social risk to the farm
if these were seen by the community as discriminatory, exploitative or opportunistic.
There can also be the case of offering “competitive salary structures or wages” to
undercut competitors in the labour market. This could result in other sectors losing
their work force to the sector or being forced to compete. The latter would have
a positive effect on the community’s labour market but could result in adverse
impacts on other industries and a general feeling of ill will from the business sector
towards the aquaculture farm or company. On the other hand, a business strategy
such as consolidation, merger or acquisition that is meant to create value for owners
and stockholders – and could result in workers being made redundant – cannot be
considered as a hazard, notwithstanding this possible consequence.
Table 1
Examples of hazards that could turn into social risks
Internal social responsibilities Hazards
People • Workplace conditions
• Farmer • Pest and disease control operations
• Household • Technology that might displace labor
• Workers • Technology requiring higher skills
Cultured animals • Feed ingredients (e.g. melamine)
• Pollution hazards
• Drugs and chemicals
• Stocking density
• Harvest and (for live animals i.e. aquarium fish)
transport practices
External social responsibilities Hazards
Community and the environment • Location of farm
• Use of common natural resources like water
• Containment of cultured organisms
• Waste and effluent disposal systems
• Employment practices
• Purchasing practices
• Predator eradication practices
• Introductions of species for farming
Suppliers, product buyers, processors, traders • Buying practices
• Feed and additives use
• Drugs and chemicals use
Global social responsibilities Hazards
Consumers • Feed and additives use
• Drugs and chemicals use
• Feeding practices (e.g. use of trashfish)
Aquaculture industries in other countries • Subsidies
• Species and production targets
• Marketing practices
The siting of farms, farm management practices such as effluent treatment and
discharge, and other aquaculture practices carry social and environmental impacts to
the community. Environmental impacts invariably translate to social impacts. Conflicts
can arise because people’s access to the shore is blocked by aquaculture installations,
salination of crop lands, encroachment or decline in fish catch because of various
aquaculture impacts that include fish kills on the wild fishery (FAO, 2006). A classic
example of a social hazard is the siting and practices of brackishwater shrimp farms in
India, which were cited by activists in their petition to the Supreme Court of India to
shut down the sector in 1997 (Patil and Krishnan, 1998).
The use of inputs such as feed, drugs and chemicals is a great source of social
hazards, not so much to the farm as to the industry or the sector as a whole. A scare
caused by a tainted product invariably gives the industry a bad press potentially
resulting in consumer resistance or boycott, importing countries’ burning of containers
of the product and perhaps change in product or product-supplier preference, all of
which lead to loss of market. Loss of market could jeopardize the viability of the
sector and the welfare of workers and people dependent on it for a living. The burning
or return of shipments of shrimp from Viet Nam found with unacceptable levels of
residues of banned drugs also severely impacted on the livelihoods of poor agricultural
communities dependent on shrimp aquaculture (MoF/NACA, 2005). The ingestion
or exposure of a farmer and/or farm workers to toxic substances from chemicals and
drugs because of poor or lack of safety precautions can reach the media and become a
serious local or national issue, with the potential of escalating into such challenges as
lawsuits, community action against the farm or consumer resistance to the product.
The process of identifying hazards with social consequence includes posing the
critical question “What challenges to the industry can be expected from society or
certain stakeholders if something went wrong?” Answers to “What could go wrong?”

which should be the first question, can be found or inferred from:
• codes of conduct
• principles of good aquaculture
• codes of practice
• good aquaculture practices
• international agreements
• certification schemes
• ethical and fair trade standards
• animal welfare and free range
• labour standards
• rules and regulations
• International Standards Organization (ISO) standards
• others
These instruments can be used to identify hazards, i.e. to assess what could go
wrong. Beyond this, aquaculture needs to know what challenges can be expected
from any sector of society if something goes wrong. For example, introduced species
that become pests or that carry pathogens have in some cases caused the collapse of
fisheries and aquaculture operations, resulting in massive losses in revenue and severe
implications for farmers, fishers, post-harvest industries and human health (APEC,
2003). The risk analysis methodologies used for alien or introduced species are well
established and the methodology to evaluate their economic, environmental and social
impacts have been developed. It is the likely challenges to aquaculture as a whole (or,
for example, the ornamental fish industry, if it were the source of the alien) that their
impact would incite that need to be identified, assessed and mitigated.
The hazards that could provoke challenges from industries in other countries are
those with potential impacts from a country’s policies (i.e. subsidies) or a sector’s
targets (i.e. species and production targets) and marketing practices (e.g. dumping).
Subsidies, as well as protectionism, could cause harm to a similar industry and its
workers in another country. Over-production and flooding the market thus depressing
prices would hurt competitors in poorer areas or countries, and dumping can create a
lot of economic backlash on an industry or commodity sector.
A study of shrimp farming in Latin America and the Caribbean by Wurmann,
Madrid and Brugger (2004) provides an example with an interesting perspective. The
study focused on two sources of competition: producers in importing countries (such as
the United States shrimp fishing industry) and producers in other regions, particularly
Asia. The study viewed the anti-dumping case in the light of its negative impacts on
national shrimp industries. It predicted that after the completion of the exercise (anti-
dumping charges and imposition of countervailing tariffs, and countercharges), “things
would go back more or less to where they were at the outset, but not before causing
disruptions in producing countries, and financial collapse of traders, importers and
distributors”. It also viewed the Asian competition largely from the expansion of white
shrimp production (Litopenaeus vannamei) as initially disruptive to the industry in
Latin America but concluded that it will compel the latter to become more efficient in
the long term. The anti-dumping action probably did not affect the shrimp industries
of concerned countries as seriously as the study predicted, but it did create disruptions.
On the other hand, there was no challenge based on this issue from Latin America to
Asian competitors (particularly those producing L. vannamei).
In summary, an action within the aquaculture sector that tarnishes its reputation
for social responsibility has the potential to provoke challenges from society. Codes of
conduct and practices, certification schemes (especially ecolabeling) and standards of
food safety, chemical use and labour are useful guides to identifying hazards that could
turn into social risks.
SOCIAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Assessing the likelihood of a hazard turning into a social risk may or may not follow the
stepwise release, exposure, consequence and estimation procedure designed for import
risk analysis (pathogen risk analysis). Risk assessment of introduction of species would
follow exactly the standard procedure up to assessment of its social, environmental and
economic consequences. To then assess its social risk, key questions would be:
• What is the likelihood that a challenge is provoked from adversely affected parties
or groups taking up their cause?
• What kind of challenge could be expected, from whom or which interest group(s)?
and
• What are the likely consequences of a challenge to the aquaculture sector or the
industry?
The critical question is what would be the most serious consequence from the
challenge? Would it be simply an annoyance, would it breed resentment from the
community, would it provoke hostile action such as a blockade against the farm or
destruction of its structures and equipment, would it result in loss of market, or would
it lead to the closure of a farm or an industry?
A negative report or public criticism in the local or national media from some
person or group would at first glance seem a mild reaction that can be responded to
by a media release or a public relations campaign. However, this could readily escalate
into (a) a greater issue, say, of human rights, environmental irresponsibility or anti-
poor, or (b) a suite of interlinked issues that could be more intractable and expensive to
respond to, or (c) a class action. For example, what started as public criticism from an
environmentalist in India on a single issue – water abstraction – ended in the Supreme
Court ordering the closure of brackishwater shrimp aquaculture.
In this connection and in the context of risk analysis, the study of Patil and
Krishnan (1998) on the social impacts of shrimp farms in Nellore, Andhra Pradesh
illustrates an important step in the process of social risk assessment. They identified
and ranked the severity of six social impacts of shrimp farming on 26 villages located
adjacent to shrimp farming clusters as perceived or felt by the affected parties. The
impacts included blocked access to the beach, salination of well water, salination
of agricultural land, difficulty in gathering fodder and fuel wood, unemployment
or under employment and poor health. They found that for the 17 fishing villages,
blocked access to the beach was a very severe problem, well water salinity a severe
problem, crop land salination and underemployment were moderate problems, poor
health was problematic and difficulty in gathering fodder and fuel wood a nuisance.
The study found no problem or combination of problems that caused a social crisis.
It also found that different occupational groupings ranked the problems differently, as
illustrated below in Table 2.
The value of this kind of study to risk assessment is the identification and assessment
of the impacts and their relative severity, which thus gives an indication of likely
consequences and the impacts of a practice. For risk management, it offers government
Table 2
Severity ranking of social impacts in fishing and farming villages
Ranked Impacts1 Ranked by Fishing Villages Ranked by Farming Villages
Well water salinity 2 4
Blocked access 1 3
Agricultural land salinity 3 2
Un/under employment 4 5
Poor health 5 6
Fodder & fuel wood 6 1
1
“1” is most severe.
Source: Patil and Krishnan 1998.
and industry a guideline for addressing the root cause/s of the risks. The study was able
to expose the nature of each social impact and determine its magnitude to enable the
development of effective legislation and other means to regulate and mitigate shrimp
farming impacts. The science-based guidelines became a credible response to the
environmental activists’ challenges.
Consequence scenario
The complexity of origins, the relationships between risks or among several risks, and
the many possible consequences of a social risk make it extremely difficult to establish
a social risk consequence scenario, as is sharply illustrated by the Supreme Court of
India’s order to close the brackishwater shrimp industry. Other challenges such as
consumer boycotts and resistance are difficult to assess, although an indication that
such challenge might be mounted could be gauged from the severity and visibility of
the impact. For example, food poisoning, discovered and widely reported drug residue
on shipment and its being burned, mass lay off of workers, massive pollution and
massive mortality of cultured and wild fish are unmistakable signals of severity that
can catch the industry off guard. On the other hand, importing country actions such
as bans, return or destruction of shipment, and trade sanctions are essentially notified
and, because of specific provisions in World Trade Organization (WTO) or bilateral
trade agreements, could be anticipated. Examples of possible challenges and likely
consequences of these challenges are listed in Table 3.
The following steps could be followed in risk assessment with the ultimate aim of
determining the likelihood of its occurrence and the seriousness of its consequence/s.
For several risks, the exercise would aim at ranking their relative seriousness so that
responses could be prepared and set into priorities.
1. Assessment. To provide an example of an assessment matrix for social risks, we
pick the farm worker and the “community” as resources under threat. A column
on modifying factors, i.e. what could reduce or aggravate the risk, is introduced
(Table 4).
2. Quantification of social risks allows proper comparison and prioritization
against perhaps more easily quantifiable technical risks. It also allows a proper
decision as to which risk or set of risks justify and are amenable to more
detailed analysis and evaluation. For aquaculture, a risk evaluation matrix could
be developed using a rating system for the severity of the consequence of a
challenge and its likelihood of occurrence, as in the example given in Table 5.
The information on severity of impact and likelihood of the risk happening could be
derived from historical experiences and expert views. Descriptors for severity of social
risks are provided as examples in Table 6.
3. Descriptors of likelihood of occurrence could be as given in Table 7.
4. Ranking. The result enables a ranking of risks so that responses could be also
prioritized. Table 8 illustrates this step.
5. Developing a risk table. The next step is to rank the issues, assign an issue
according to its rank under one of six categories and develop a risk table such as
the one show in Table 9.
This process should be completed for each of the identified issues with a risk
ranking developed and the rationale for assigning these rankings recorded. The actual
risk assessment is not just the scores generated during the assessment process. It should
include the appropriate level of documentation and justification for the categories
selected, as illustrated in Table 10.2
2
Another guide for risk rating is “HPSS guidance on analysis of risk/risk rating matrix” (www.hsspsni.
gov.uk/guidance_on_analysis.pdf).
Table 3
Some examples of direct and indirect consequences of social hazards
Internal social Hazards Consequences and Likely challenges from
responsibilities society
Workers • Technology that might displace labour • Unemployment – management–labour conflict,
• Technology requiring higher skills human rights and welfare issue, work-related
injury or illness, cessation of operations due to
• Workplace conditions labour unrest, bad press, negative report, public
• Pest and disease control operations criticism, lawsuit
Cultured animals • Feed ingredients (i.e. melamine) • Animal welfare issue – bad press, boycott, ban
• Pollution hazards • Negative report or public criticism
• Stocking density
External Social Hazards Consequences
Responsibilities
Community and the • Location of farm • Access to source of livelihoods barred or made
environment • Use of common natural resources like difficult –conflict with community
water • Contamination of water resources, loss of
• Density of farm structures livelihoods from wild fishery – capture-culture
conflict
• Containment of cultured organisms
• Conflict with common users of resources
• Waste and effluent disposal systems
• Local resentment at missed job opportunities
• Employment practices, terms leads to elements of the local community
• Purchasing practices blockading the site
• Predator eradication practices • Accidental damage to wild fishery or farm crops
• Introductions of species for farming – bad press, conflict with fishers
• Spread of disease, pests or predators – bad
reputation; negative report; public criticism
Suppliers, product • Buying practices • Loss of trust – loss of market, tarnished product
buyers, processors, • Feed and additives or farm reputation, blacklist
traders
• Perceptions of product quality
Global social Hazards Consequences
responsibilities
Consumers • Feed and additives • Loss of market; tarnished product image and
• Drugs and chemicals sector reputation – bans, boycotts, lawsuits,
product avoidance
• Perceptions of product quality
• Environmental action
• Feeding practices (use of trashfish)
• Appearance of cheaper substitutes, • Loss of profitability, competitiveness and market
development of competitive products,
change in preferences and tastes
Aquaculture • Subsidies • Market access issues: bans, boycotts,
industries in other • Species and production targets antidumping measures, countervailing tariffs –
countries loss of market.
• Marketing practices
• Harm to livelihoods of farmers in other countries
– trade related challenges (i.e. anti-dumping),
higher tariffs – loss of market access
Table 4
An example of an assessment matrix for social risks
“Resource” Modifying factors (reduce (–) or
Threats to resource Causes Consequences
Under Threat aggravate (+) risk)
farm labour • Displacement • Labour-saving • Lawsuit • Skills training (–)
• Injury or illness technology • Bad press • Cutting corners on employee
• Unsafe, unsanitary • Community safety (+)
working condition, lack resentment • Investment in training and
of protection; lack of safety devices (–)
knowledge of safety • Strike
measures
Community • Pollution of water • Leaks, spills, discharge • Community • Water treatment system (+)
goodwill or bodies, croplands of effluent hostile action • Forced labor (+)
cooperation • Perceived • Unfair labour terms • Lawsuit • Child labour(+)
exploitative or unethical hiring • Bad press
practice practices • Illegal wage structure (+)
Table 5
SOCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT Example risk evaluation matrix
Severity Likelihood of Occurrence
Concepts and definitions 0- Negligible 1- Remote
Risk management is the process of bearing the 1- Minor 2- Rare
2- Moderate 3- Unlikely
risk you want to bear, and minimizing your
3- Severe 4- Possible
exposure to the risk you do not want. This can 4- Major 5- Occasional
be done in several ways: not doing things that 5- Catastrophic 6- Likely
carry a particular risk; hedging, which involves Source: FRDC Australia, 2004
deliberately taking on a new risk that offsets an
Table 6
Examples of descriptors for severity of social risks
Severity Level Social risk consequence
Negligible (0) General – insignificant impacts to aquaculture at any level (farm, industry or sector);
unlikely to be measurable or to cause challenge from any sector.
Minor (1) Challenges likely to be a nuisance and can be addressed or responded to with
minimum of effort and expense.
Moderate (2) Challenges will likely impact on reputation of farm, industry or sector with one or a
few consequences; can be addressed before it escalates into a major challenge.
Severe (3) Challenge will place the reputation of an entire commodity industry at stake; has
the potential of escalating into a major challenge; could result in an abrupt loss of
market access and profitability.
Major (4) A major challenge or sets of challenges from various empowered stakeholders that
will have very costly and several interlinked consequences such as bans, boycotts,
hostile action, lawsuits, blacklist etc; could jeopardize welfare of people in the sector;
response is needed from the sector as a whole and will entail much expense and
effort; recovery can take a few years.
Catastrophic (5) Closure; bankruptcies, widespread collapse of the industry; long-term recovery period.
Table 7
Descriptors or likelihood of occurrence
Likelihood Definition
Remote (1) Never heard of but not impossible
Rare (2) May occur in exceptional circumstances
Unlikely (3) Uncommon but has been known to occur elsewhere
Possible (4) Some evidence to suggest it is possible to occur
Occasional (5) May occur
Likely (6) Expected to occur
Source: FRDC Australia, 2004.
existing one, such as your exposure to an adverse change in an exchange rate, interest
rate or commodity price; and diversification, which means not putting all your eggs
in one basket (having a portfolio in which you hold several different shares and assets
helps to reduce risk; and buying insurance (in economic terms, anything used to reduce
the downside of risk. In its most familiar form, insurance is provided through a policy
purchased from an insurance company. A fuller definition would include, for example,
a financial security (or anything else) used to hedge, as well as assistance available in
the event of disaster. The latter could be provided by the government in various ways,
including welfare payments to sick or poor people and legal protection from creditors
in the event of bankruptcy.3
Arrangements and strategies

The next section largely borrows from Holzmann (2001). The concepts and examples
would appropriately but not exclusively apply to poor and small farming households.
Social risk arrangements

Arrangements to deal with vulnerability fall into three main categories: (i) informal,
(ii) market based and iii) public arrangements on a large scale. In an ideal world with
3
“Economics from A to Z”, www.economist.com.
Table 8
Quantifying social risks by severity and likelihood of occurrence, an example
a. Severity of b. Likelihood of Score
Consequences and likely challenges from society
impact occurrence (A x b)
1 Unemployment: management–labour conflict 4 6 24
2 Human rights and welfare issue 3 3 9
3 Work-related injury or illness 4 5 20
4 Cessation of operations due to labour unrest 4 6 24
5 Bad press, negative report, public criticism 2 6 12
6 Lawsuit 4 3 12
7 Animal welfare issue – bad press, boycott, ban 2 2 4
8 Negative report or public criticism
2 5 10
9 Access to source of livelihoods barred or made difficult: 4 4 16
conflict with community
10 Contamination of water resources, loss of livelihoods 4 5 20
from wild fishery – capture-culture conflict (with other
stakeholders)
11 Conflict with common users of resources
12 Local resentment at missed job opportunities leads to 4 3 12
elements of the local community protesting or blockading 3 5 15
the site.
13 Accidental damage to wild fishery or farm crops – bad
press, conflict with fishers
5 3 15
14 Spread of disease, pests or predators – bad reputation;
negative report; public criticism
4 3 12
15 Unethical buying/marketing practice; bad product: loss of 5 3 15
trust, loss of market, tarnished product or farm reputation,
blacklist
16 Market access issues: bans, boycotts, antidumping 4 5 20
measures, countervailing tariffs – loss of market.
17 Harm to farmers in other countries – trade related
challenges (i.e. anti-dumping, higher tariffs – loss of market
access) 4 6 24
Table 9
Example of risk table
Consequence
Likelihood Negligible Minor Moderate Severe Major Catastrophic
0 1 2 3 4 5
Remote 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Rare 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Unlikely 3 0 3 6 9 12 15
Possible 4 0 4 8 12 16 20
Occasional 5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Likely 6 0 6 12 18 24 30
Source: FRDC Australia, 2004.
perfectly symmetrical information and complete and well-functioning markets, all

risk management arrangements can be market based. In reality, all risk management
arrangements will play important roles that could change over time.
• Informal – With no or incomplete market institutions and public provision of
support, households and small farms respond to risk by protecting themselves
through informal and personal arrangements. Credit from relatives and self-help
group arrangements are examples.
• Market based – Where available and affordable, smallholders and households take
advantage of the financial products offered by insurance companies and banks.
Because formal market institutions have difficulty to lend or provide insurance
to small farms without secured earnings and improved access to information,
Table 10
Risk ranking definitions and reporting requirements
Risk Reporting Management response
Negligible 0 Short justification only Nil
Low 1 Full justification needed None specific
Moderate 2 Full performance report Continue current arrangements
High 3 Full performance report Probable increases to management
Extreme 4 Full performance report Substantial additional management
needed
micro-credit and insurance are potentially interesting instruments for social risk
management.4
• Public – This category takes various forms. When informal or market-based risk
management arrangements do not exist (there is no insurance), the government can
provide or mandate social insurance programmes for risks such as unemployment,
work injury, disability and sickness, and compensation schemes for catastrophes
or unusually large damages to assets and crop. Additionally, governments have a
whole array of instruments to help farms cope after a shock hits, such as social
assistance, subsidies on basic goods and services and public works programmes.
Through legislation, government is also able to introduce prevention strategies
such as zoning, safety standards, property rights and protection of rights to assets.
Many government programmes (in health, education and infrastructure) also play
an important role in social risk prevention.
SRM strategies
Social Risk Management (SMR) consists of three strategies: prevention, mitigation and
coping.
Prevention strategies are those that reduce the probability of the risk occurring.
Measures that could apply to aquaculture include:
• skills training or job function improvement to reduce the risk of un/under-
employment or low wages that are probably man-made;
• optimizing macroeconomic policies to reduce the shocks of financial crisis, such
as oil price surges or unpredictable market moves on currencies;
• for natural disasters and environmental degradation, deploying a networked pre-
warning system or sustainable, renewable and environmentally friendly ecosystem
management strategies and practices to minimize the impact of the consequences,
such as flooding, earthquakes, drought, global warming and soil acidity or salinity;
• in human and animal health care, focus is on the preventing epidemics and the
introduction of pathogens by awareness and educational programmes, responsible
movement of live animals, quarantine, certification etc.; and
• for social security, establishing a farm mutual to compensate for loss of assets,
disability or chronic illness.
Mitigation strategies focus on reducing the impact of a future risk event. Common
practices include:
• diversifying to a reasonable level that is commensurate to the resources and
management skills of the farmer, to spread the risk5 as well as reduce shock from
a crop wipeout;
4
A hybrid programme for insurance by which, broadly, insurers cover insurable perils and the government
covers the social risk that insurers normally do not cover, was proposed at the FAO/NACA/APRACA
Regional Workshop to Promote Aquaculture Insurance in Asia held in Bali, Indonesia on 30 April–2
May 2007. A draft guideline, discussed at the workshop, was being finalized.
5
A study in India by Brugere (2003) noted that at the village level, crop diversity increases with risk, up to
a point, then decreases, which contradicts the assumption of crop diversification as a strategy to decrease
risk. It concluded that with limited resources, crop diversification may increase income but does not
reduce risk.
Table 11
Strategies and arrangements of social risk management: examples for aquaculture
Arrangements/
Informal Market-based Public
Strategies
Risk Prevention and Reduction
• Self-help grouping or • Food safety certification • Labour standards,
association of farmers • Environmental standards regulations
• Better farm management • Market-driven labour • Child labour reduction
practices standards interventions
• Less risky production – low • Market information • Gender policies
tech-low input; non- access • Skills training
diversified
• Off-farm employment
Risk Mitigation
• Self-help grouping • Credit • Property rights
• Diversified enterprise • Crop and assets insurance • Support for credit and
• Savings • Life, accident, health insurance
• Investments in human, insurance • Green subsidies
physical and real assets
• Investment in social capital
Risk Coping
• Sale of real assets • Sale of financial assets • Social assistance
• Borrowing from relatives • Compensations to
damages
Source: Adapted from Holzmann, 2001.
• micro-financing to smallholders; and

• insurance.
Coping strategies are designed to relieve the impact of the risk event once it has
occurred. Usual measures are:
• issuing government relief and rehabilitation funds for very serious risks such as
disasters or epidemics;
• immediate compensation schemes for serious damages to crops and assets caused
by intentional or accidental pollution or acts that result in extensive damage; and
• alternative and emergency employment such as work-for-food programmes.
Table 11 lists examples of social risk management strategies through informal,
market-based and public arrangements. Among small-scale farmers, being organized
into a self-help group or a formal association would increase their capacities to
prevent and mitigate, as well as cope with, social risks. Large corporate farms joined
into alliances (such as the Global Aquaculture Alliance (GAA)) are able to deal with
strategic risks, many of which are challenges to the (shrimp) industry from various
parties. Strategic management of social risks is discussed in the next section.
Strategic and integrated risk management

The complexity of impacts and difficult-to-pinpoint origins of social risks reinforce the
need for integrated approaches to strategic risk management. Strategic risks can scale
rapidly in geographic terms: what looks like a local public relations issue could turn
from a one-time cost and simple response into an issue involving a sector’s, industry’s,
company’s or farm’s reputation.
For strategic risks, in contrast with traditional compliance or hazard risks, risk and
opportunity are often two sides of the same coin. A strategic risk that is anticipated
early and mitigated well can be converted into a new market, a competitive advantage,
a stock of goodwill or a strategic relationship (Bekefi, Jenkins and Kytle, 2006). The
introduction of new technology could be an opportunity to upgrade the skills of the
workforce (rather than laying off workers) through in-house training or an industry-
wide skills upgrade programme and thus improve labor efficiencies and enhance
goodwill. Competition for freshwater by an aquaculture sector such as shrimp farming
with the community could be an opportunity to educate the community on water-
saving techniques, demonstrating water-recycling and re-use measures, develop a

market-based water-pricing mechanism with the local government, and introduce
sanitation and health programmes to the community.
The aquaculture sector is familiar with a number of social risks. Certification and
ecolabeling schemes, developing alliances with various sectors and working with
stakeholders to build or re-build trust and reputation in order to avoid or limit the
damage or to engage on the issues to prevent future incidents are strategic responses that
the sector could make. The Code of Conduct, International Principles for Sustainable
Shrimp Aquaculture, and other codes (some developed by the industry, such as the
Federation of European Aquaculture Producers’ (FEAP), Code of Practice and GAA’s
Code of Conduct) provide guides by which aquaculture farmers can understand and
address the range of social and environmental issues that affect them and on which
they can have an impact. There have been initiatives that go beyond understanding the
issues to identifying and engaging other stakeholders in those issues. FEAP routinely
engages researchers and scientists (i.e. with the European Aquaculture Society) as well
as the mass media (i.e. AQUAMEDIA) in discussing various issues that impact on
the industry and by communicating its opinions to the concerned bodies such as the
European Commission (Hough and Bueno, 2003).
Building relationships can help farms or a commodity sector gain freedom
from stakeholder challenges to their management and business practices. It can
contribute to a reputation for good behaviour (i.e. by adhering to a code of conduct,
better management practices (BMP), good aquaculture practices (GAP) or eco-label
certification) that could give an industry or a farm advantage with ethical consumers
and investors. Strong relationships with stakeholders that are maintained over time can
be an insurance: they buy time and patience from those with the power to challenge
the farm or the sector when it causes a negative social impact. These relationships can
be good sources of sensing emerging risks and opportunities. They can help to identify
the issues, understand the dynamics behind them and track them as they evolve. These
relationships may form the basis of more collaborative operational partnerships with
stakeholders actively helping the industry mitigate risks and capture new opportunities
(Bekefi, Jenkins and Kytle, 2006).
For the aquaculture sector, alliances with consumer groups, supermarket chains,
researchers and technology developers, and civil society organizations with social
agenda are examples. The sector should build relationships that are conducive to
managing the risks and opportunities arising out of the issues in which both parties
have common stakes, such as food quality and safety, eco-labeling and development of
certification standards, as well as fair trade. Ultimately, it is a farm’s commitment to its
customers and to socially responsible farming that assures a lasting relationship.
SOCIAL RISK COMMUNICATION

The aim of risk communication usually is to avoid or correct misperceptions of a risk.
It goes without saying that the source of the message must be able to understand the
sources and causes of anxieties and perceptions of stakeholders. In short, there has
to be a common understanding between the communicator and the public about the
elements of the risk. Communication is a tool for risk management. One important
arm of “corporate social responsibility” (CSR) is a public affairs or public relations unit
with the capabilities and expertise to manage strategic risks stemming from social (and
environmental) issues. In the aquaculture sector, with the obvious absence of a CSR body
for small, widespread or independent farms, the alternatives have included organizing
into associations and federations (e.g. FEAP) and alliances (e.g. GAA and Shrimp
Producers Association of Thailand) that include suppliers of inputs and processors/
exporters). The “CSR function” or parts of a CSR unit’s functions are performed to some
extent and in a disinterested manner consistent with their mandates, by organizations
like the Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the Pacific (NACA), the South
East Asian Fisheries Development Center (SEAFDEC), INFOFISH and FAO. They
develop with other stakeholders guidelines for responsible farming and strategies for
communicating, sharing and promoting awareness and adoption.
In the context of communicating social risk, a “CSR” action (whether by the
industry itself or in cooperation with development organizations) contributes through
two means: (i) providing intelligence, awareness and insight about what those risks are,
and (2) offering an effective means to respond to them. The key to both is managing
stakeholder relationships (Bekefi, Jenkins and Kytle, 2006).
An equivalent activity to managing stakeholder relationships in a sector with
many small, poor farmers is getting organized into self-help groups or more formal
associations and cooperating with suppliers, buyers, support services, civil society
organizations, government and regional and international development organizations.
Information flows between stakeholders and the sector can form the base of knowledge
about social issues and the nature of those problems (Kytle and Ruggie, 2005). Among
the key questions that can be answered by engaging with stakeholders on a particular
social issue are:
• What is the issue or problem?
• How complex is it?
• What is its scope?
• Who else has an interest in the problem?
• What is working and not working in the current approach?
• What would be accomplished by engaging others in the dialogue?
A process for internal and external risk sensing, reporting and monitoring should be
employed. By partnering with other social actors including civil society organizations,
the aquaculture sector can also improve the conditions that pose emerging risks for
them in the first place. As an example, global and national companies now collaborate
to build greater social capacity to respond to shared challenges like epidemics and the
HIV/AIDS crisis, drugs, trafficking, child labour, and other social issues.
CONCLUSIONS
Social risk analysis in aquaculture can benefit from the methodology developed
for biological (i.e. pathogen) risks, up to a point. The complexity of the origins of
social risks and the difficulty of establishing a hierarchy among numerous possible
consequences make it extremely difficult to establish causal relationships. Table 12
illustrates this constraint.
Table 12
A matrix illustrating the complex nature of the origins and impacts of social risks
Consequences Challenges Possible origins
• Loss of market that leads • Public exposure (news and • Residues found in product
to… criticism)
• Mass fish kills (cultured and wild)
• Loss of viability that may • Court action
• Accidental or intentional discharge of
lead to...
• Boycott of product pollutant (pollution, salinization)
• Closure of farm or
• Trade challenges – antidumping, • Conflicts with common users of
industry that will mean…
non-tariff barriers (NTBs) resource
• Loss of employment of
• Hostility to farm or company • Conflicts with community in general
workers in the farm or
the industry including • Introduction of a cheaper or • Government action
ancillary… and preferred product substitute
• Loss of competitiveness
• Loss of livelihood of the • Competition from an industrial-
• Introduction and spread of pests and/
farmer and/or a lot of scale and more efficient farm
or diseases
other people
• Change in consumer tastes and
• Cost-price squeeze
preferences
• Civil unrest
The definition adapted for social risk provides a departure to the concept of origin
of risk.
It essentially says that a social risk is the result of a provocation by the sector,
industry or farm on society. The provocation, which could simply be based on
a perception, results in a challenge. The challenge constitutes the risk, which has
myriad possible consequences with various degrees of severity. To bring risk analysis
to a degree of simplification and system, it is suggested that one starts by defining
aquaculture’s spheres of social responsibility; identifying the stakeholders to which
it has to be responsible; and drawing from codes of conduct, codes of practices,
ecolabeling and certification schemes, labour standards, food safety standards and
environmental standards a list of hazards that could turn into social risks. It would be
useful to develop a methodology for social risk estimation, the practical application of
which is to predict the types of challenges and their degrees of severity so that an early
response could be devised to address the challenge. The insurance sector could provide
the tools for developing a social risk estimation methodology.
An aquaculture risk data bank, which is akin to a risk register in project risk analysis
and management (RAMP, 2004), in which all possible hazards and risks are classified
as to their nature, causes, consequences, impacts, severity of impacts, likelihood of
occurrence and other characterizations would be a helpful tool for risk analysis and
reference for commercial insurers and governments, the latter for devising social
insurance programmes. A risk register lists all the identified risks and the results of
their analysis and evaluation. Information on the status of the risk is also included. The
risk register is continuously updated and reviewed throughout the course of a project.
A risk register is best presented as a table for ease of reference and should contain the
following information:6
• risk number (unique within register),
• risk type,
• author (who raised it),
• date identified,
• date last updated,
• description,
• likelihood,
• interdependencies with other sources of risks,
• expected impact,
• bearer of risk,
• countermeasures, and
• risk status and risk action status.
FUTURE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES: SOCIAL RISK AND SUSTAINED

GROWTH
If the industry, a farm or the sector as a whole adheres to socially responsible practices,
it is fair to expect it would face very little challenge and none that is serious. The
need therefore is to enable the farmers, processors, traders, input suppliers and
others in the chain to adopt the codes, adhere to better practices and comply with
regulations. A particular challenge is how to prevent free-riding, rent-seeking and
corruption and other opportunistic behaviours that would surely invite challenges to
the sector. This shifts the focus of the issue to governance mechanisms, particularly
the effectiveness of various mechanisms of governance (mandatory, market-based and
voluntary) instruments. The other side of the issue is the ability of farmers to comply
with an increasing number and stringency of requirements without jeopardizing their
profitability; the challenge is for farmers to see as sensible to business to adopt and
6
The Green Book. www.greenbook.treasury.gov.uk
comply with all these requirements. A number of pilot studies and initiatives offer
evidences of the effectiveness of such strategies as organizing into farmer groups or
more formal associations and adopting BMPs (Bueno et al., 2007a, 2007b).
The opportunities presented by these challenges are many and varied: a small
list would include making it attractive for insurers to insure aquaculture operations,
particularly the numerous small farms; developing a hybrid insurance approach that
combines the market-oriented and social (public) insurance schemes; and a better system
for micro-financing (FAO/NACA/APRACA 2007). The demand-side opportunities
would include organizing farmers and promoting adoption of better practices. The
broader challenge and opportunity is the strengthening of national farmer servicing
systems that cater to the numerous small farmers. The greatest opportunity is to let
the farmer know, and to assure the sector, that a social risk-free environment, which
is predicated on socially responsible behaviour, translates to sustained growth and
development. Finally, a possible framework by which analysis of various genera of
risks (natural, physical, environmental, economic and social) might be integrated is
outlined in Box 4.
The five livelihood assets are linked through an asset pentagon (Figure 1) that allows
comparison of status before and after an intervention; in short it enables assessment
of changes. The pentagon allows the change in each angle to be shown in terms of
an increase or decrease in the assets; the shape of the pentagon of assets plotted is
more important than the absolute magnitude. The livelihood outcome is the result
of an analysis of livelihood strategy and assets. One livelihood outcome is the loss of
it. Threats to a means of livelihoods to any of the five livelihoods assets could thus
Box 4
Sustainable livelihoods analysis:
a possible integrative framework for risk analysis
The Department for International Development (DFID)7 has been promoting a

framework for livelihoods analysis, based on the concept that “a livelihood comprises the
capabilities, assets, and activities required for a means of living” and the proposition that
“a livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks
and maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future, while not
undermining the natural resource base”. Based on this concept, Rakodi and Lloyd-Jones
(2002) identified five livelihood assets, as follows:
• Natural: the natural resource stock, which is derived for livelihood use; includes
land, water, forest and other natural resources.
• Physical: the stock built by humans; basically an infrastructure, such as an
irrigation system, transportation system, pond system, pen-culture and cage-culture
installations.
• Human: includes what is generally known as labour and knowledge. Labour has
qualitative and quantitative dimensions. Quantitative refers to the number of
household and hired labour, and qualitative refers to the level of education, skill
and the health status of labour. Technology that is learned and utilized is part of this
human asset.
• Financial/economic: is associated with income, expenditure, savings and loan (it
includes all kinds of production investment).
• Social: refers to the social networks, group relationship and access to wider
institutions of society.
7
http://www.livelihoods.org/info/guidance_sheets_pdfs/cover.pdf
be described and assessed using this

Figure 1
framework. A risk is an intervention, The asset pentagon
albeit unplanned. Adopted for risk
analysis, the same framework could be
Natural asset
used for assessing the impacts of various
kinds of risk on each livelihood asset.
This would give a holistic perspective
of the consequences of various types of
Human Physical
risks on the farm household.
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229
Aquaculture insurance industry risk

analysis processes
Philip A.D. Secretan

AUMS Ltd.
112 Malling Street
Lewes, East Sussex
BN7 2RJ United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
[email protected]
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ABSTRACT
The aquaculture insurance industry’s approach to risk analysis is wide ranging and
thorough. It starts during the insurance arrangement process and carries on throughout
the life of the insurance policy. The analysis process relies on information obtained
through the completion of specially designed proposal forms that have to be completed
by applicants seeking insurance. Different forms are used for different types of
aquaculture. Information is gathered on every aspect of each farm, and questions must
be answered in considerable detail. Answers must be correct and accurate, as a completed
proposal form becomes a legal component of any policy that is issued, and any failure
to provide information that proves to be material1 can render the policy null and void.
Once a policy is issued, risk analysis continues through special clauses and conditions in
policies that mandate that details of changes to rearing processes, growing systems and
management have to be reported to insurers, together with losses and possible losses.
Risk analysis and management is thus carried on continuously through the life of every
policy, with all changes being assessed as to their importance and potential impact on the
safety or otherwise of the crop. Insurance policies are subject to deductibles (self-insure
amounts carried by the farm itself) that rule out the many small losses but are also a
technique used to modify insurers’ exposure to specific risk and hazards that they regard
as high, or to reduce premiums. Following risk analysis, they may also exclude specific
high-risk perils. Insurers, therefore, do not become involved in the day to day mortalities
from the small losses that are a fact of life in aquaculture, or in the very high-level risks
that may be considered as inevitabilities. Site surveys are essential to risk assessment at
all phases of the insurance process. These are carried out by skilled surveyors, each of
whom is experienced in risk assessment appropriate to the type of operation involved and
its component parts. This particularly applies to marine installations and operations that
include electrical and mechanical life support components. Fish health surveys are also
carried out by specialist experts. The process of risk analysis is carried on continuously,
from the initial application for insurance, through the life of the insurance policy and
1
In brief, information is considered “material” if it is information that would cause an insurance
underwriter to decline to underwrite an operation or to apply different insuring terms and conditions.
in the aftermath of claim situations. It is very thorough and wide ranging. Above all, it
is very effective; it has been responsible for reducing losses, lowering risk profiles and
avoiding financial loss in all the areas of aquaculture in which it has been applied. Above
all, it has contributed to a tangible increase in wealth in many areas and has the potential
to do the same in those parts of the world to which it’s practices have not yet spread.
INTRODUCTION
The aquaculture industry has many insurable interests that are the same or almost
identical to the insurable interests of other industries. They may range from liabilities
in certain areas, to the physical assets of the business. However, aquaculture has one
very important insurable interest that is almost unique – its stock! Because its stock
is grown in water and is, in most cases, totally dependant on water as a life-support
medium, aquaculture stock is subject to a unique set of risks and hazards that are unlike
those of almost any other industry. Additionally, aquaculture, through its stock and
growing processes, may affect the environment and the society around it. Thus any
risks associated with these effects are of concern to politicians, public administrators
and the general public, and are not, as a general rule, of concern in the arrangement of
insurance on the stocks of aquatic organisms. This paper, therefore, deals only with the
risk analysis processes that the aquaculture insurance industry uses to directly assess
the risks to aquaculture’s stock.
EVOLUTION OF AQUACULTURE INSURANCE

The insurance market for aquaculture stock began operating in 1974, when the first
insurance facilities were created in the Lloyd’s of London and the London Insurance
Market. Because it involves growing stocks of aquatic plants and creatures in either
fresh or saltwater, aquaculture is a highly unusual industry and one, it might be thought,
that would pose considerable handling difficulties for insurance markets. However, the
insurance industry has a long track record of assessing and handling the risks of a very
wide variety of vastly different industries and insurable interests. While growing stocks
of aquatic plants and creatures in water presented some very unusual challenges, the
insurance industry was able to fall back on its historical experience of assessing and
handling risk in different situations and design an approach to aquaculture that took
into account its “oddities”.
OVERVIEW OF THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY’S GENERAL APPROACH TO RISK

ANALYSIS
The insurance industry’s approach to aquaculture is to protect it against risks that can
cause severe losses, and not against those that cause minor ones. The analysis of risk
that is constantly carried out by aquaculture stock insurers is similarly focused on the
risks that can do the most harm. In order to put this approach into effect, standard
aquaculture insurance policies carry substantial deductibles (self-insure amounts
that are carried by the farm itself) that are designed to exclude the small losses that
are a fact of life in the industry but are also used as an underwriting mechanism for
modifying insurers’ exposure to specific risk and hazards that they regard as high but
not necessarily so high as to require exclusion from the cover provided. They can also
be used as a mechanism for reducing premiums. Insurers, therefore, do not get involved
in paying for the day to day mortalities and the small losses the industry incurs.
The insurance industry’s general approach to risk analysis in “industrial” situations,
of which aquaculture is an example, is very thorough and extensive, and generally
follows a fairly standard path. It begins with a process of gathering information on the
interest offered for insurance. Information is usually obtained through the completion
of a proposal form that is specific to the business involved. Proposal forms request
relevant facts and figures on all the different areas of the business that insurers identify
as being important to their risk analysis process.
The initial analysis of proposal form information regularly results in insurers asking
additional questions about issues they perceive to be important. However, once all
information is provided to them, and providing the overall operation is satisfactory
and meets their underwriting criteria, they will issue a premium quotation and an
indication of the terms of coverage.
In many situations, however, insurers will require a survey to be carried out as
part of the information gathering and risk assessment processes. Surveyors will be
specialists in particular parts of industrial processes, such as the electrical, mechanical
or chemical components, or expert in marine, fire, security and other more general
aspects. Surveyors produce reports that generally contain recommendations as to how
processes can be improved to achieve lower risk levels.
Information gathering having been completed and a terms, conditions and premium
quotation produced that is acceptable to the farm’s owner, a policy of insurance is put
into effect. Policy wordings detail the contractual arrangement between the insurer and
the insured, covering such issues as the amount of premium required, what the insured
has to do in the event of a claim and many other issues. In aquaculture, the information
gathering and risk analysis processes are perpetuated through the operation of policy
wordings. These will normally contain conditions that require material changes and
alterations to the operation to be reported to the insurer, who reserves the right to
change the terms of the policy to reflect their introduction. Changes may either
improve terms in response to improvements in risk or penalize the insured if they cause
risks to increase.
A re-analysis of risk will also take place when a claim occurs. Indeed, when a serious
risk that a loss may occur arises, it must, under the terms of the policy, be immediately
reported to insurers. This prompts an urgent analysis of the situation by all parties,
leading to all reasonable steps being taken to mitigate the situation.
Insurance policies normally run for a period of 12 months, unless the policy period
is adjusted to accommodate a particular growing period. When a policy is renewed,
the information gathering process is generally repeated either in whole or in part. A
new proposal form will have been supplied that updates information on all issues, and
another survey may also be carried out. Renewal information is once again analyzed
by the insurers in a repeat of the initial acquisition process.
INSURANCE RISK ANALYSIS PROCESSES AS APPLIED TO AQUACULTURE

The risk analysis processes developed by the specialist aquaculture insurance market
recognize one very important thing – no aquaculture operation stays the same! Farms
change, their surroundings change, the people running them change and the fundamental
production processes change. It is therefore very important to insurers that all material
changes are brought into their analysis processes as they occur, enabling them to adjust
their insuring terms and conditions and apply effective risk management strategies that
each change prompts.
Insurers achieve a constant evaluation of risk and of the risks inherent in operational
changes by developing relevant information at four points in the insurance cycle:
• when an operation applies for insurance;
• when a key change in the farming process takes place;
• when a claim occurs and
• at the renewal of the policy.
The acquisition of information during the initial underwriting process and at policy
renewal relies heavily on the use of proposal forms and site surveys. Material changes,
however, occur during the course of a policy term, and therefore there needs to be a
structured system reporting and analysing them. Insurers achieve this through specific
conditions in their policies that mandate that policy holders must report material
changes to their operations and also give immediate advice of claims and potential
claims.
The role of proposal forms

Proposal forms that have been specially designed for the industry are key to basic
risk analysis in aquaculture insurance. These have to be completed when insurance is
applied for, and generally when a policy is due for renewal. They must be signed by
the insured signifying that their contents are true and accurate, and they are formally
incorporated into the wording and conditions of the insurance policy.
Special forms (see Annexes 1 and 2) have been designed for fish in onshore and
offshore situations, and also for operations that are different to conventional onshore
gravity flow and offshore cage production profiles. Thus, operations with a very high
pumping and recirculation content may merit their own specially designed proposal
forms, and so too may molluscs grown on beds as opposed to on longlines and rafts.
Proposal forms gather information on every aspect of each operation, including:
• the species being farmed.
• the location(s) involved;
• the management and its skills and experience;
• the layout of production unit(s);
• the growing processes;
• loss history;
• disease history;
• health monitoring and
• the values involved.
Focused questions are asked in respect of the different sectors of the industry and
their various organizational and structural arrangements. Thus, onshore proposals will
go into the layout of ponds, tanks and raceways; the way water is moved around them;
and the arrangement of pumping and aeration systems used. Offshore proposal forms
will go into the exposure to wind, currents, plankton blooms, superchill and shipping
movements, as well as into the structure of the cages and the arrangement and design
of moorings.
All proposal form questions have to be answered in considerable detail, with answers
being supported by maps, plans, photographs, feeding charts and personal curriculum
vitae (CVs). As has already been noted, it is very important that all answers are correct
and accurate; when insurance is put into effect, each proposal form becomes a legal
component of the insurance arrangement, and any failure to provide information that
proves to be material can render the insurance policy null and void.
The role of the proposal form is to provide insurers with an intimate overview of an
operation at the time it is completed. It must provide them with sufficient information
on the farm to enable them to analyze its inherent risks, develop an approach to
managing them, and prepare fair and equitable terms and conditions for insuring
them.
The role of site surveys

Aquaculture is an unusual business because it is carried on in water. This fact impacts
on the many different risks that threaten the business. For example, stock control is
very difficult in water, and it complicates both spotting diseases and treating them.
Water can also carry pollution, flood sites and exercise massive forces on cages, rafts
and mooring systems. The fact that it is carried on in water makes aquaculture a high-
risk business!
The specialist aquaculture insurance market is widely familiar with the exposures
the various types of aquaculture face and the losses they have suffered. It is very
important to insurers, and fundamental to their commercial success, that they bring
this experience to bear on reducing risks to the farms they insure. They see it as
unsatisfactory to rely on a farmer completing a proposal form, to fully appreciate and
describe all the risks to which his site is exposed. Insurers, therefore, regularly insist
that surveys of farms are carried out by specialist surveyors.
The aquaculture insurance market has thus developed a significant survey capability,
which it regularly employs as an adjunct to the proposal form information gathering
process. It is a very important part of the risk analysis and management process in
aquaculture insurance and has proved to be a very successful way of identifying,
analysing and managing risks. The creation of a sophisticated surveying capability
is one of the factors that has enabled the market to achieve reasonable underwriting
profitability after many years of losses.
The aquaculture insurance survey facilities built up by insurers over many years
are an extremely valuable asset, and one that could be much more widely used by
the aquaculture industry, to whom it is fully available on a commercial basis. Some
producers, however, argue that survey costs are too high and believe that they carry
out their own surveys perfectly satisfactorily.
The counter arguments are that surveys are expensive because they have to be
carried out by skilled professionals who command high fees, but the expense is very
low when compared to the losses they can help to avoid. The cost of a survey can be
amply repaid if it reveals just one risk that can be eliminated.
There is also much evidence that shows that owners and farm managers are very
often “over familiar” with their operations, to the extent that they miss critical
weaknesses. Few doubt farmers’ genuine efforts to risk manage their operations, but
it is difficult for them to spot flaws in systems with which they are intimately familiar,
and independent surveyors, unfamiliar with the layout and workings of sites, are much
more critical in their approach. As a result, they look much more deeply into all aspects
of the structure, arrangement and operation; ask many “what if” questions; and thus
discover shortcomings that farmers tend to miss.
The survey process

Surveys tend to fall into two groups. General risk assessment surveys cover at all aspects
of an operation, checking that the proposal form information is correct and accurate,
looking for any weaknesses in the production process and making recommendations
as to how an operation can be better risk managed. Specialist surveys are designed to
look at features of an operation that demand specialist attention. These would include
surveys of cage groups by qualified marine surveyors, examination of biological
husbandry by disease experts, and the inspection of key electrical and mechanical
components by qualified engineers, especially when there is a heavy dependence on
the latter for life support.
Surveyors will look very closely at the components of the farm that come within
their area of competence. Thus in the case of a cage farm, a specialist surveyor would
look very closely at the wave climate and wave characteristics, the storm exposure and
the mooring designs needed to deal with them; he would also examine maintenance
and replacement procedures. If a farm uses intensive pumping and aeration, the
arrangement of such systems would be critically examined, including examining
fail-safe backups, the arrangement of alarms and the response to them, equipment
maintenance procedures and staff training on emergency procedures. All will be the
subject of intense scrutiny.
Report and recommendations

A key outcome of a survey is the production of the Survey Report. These reports
contain recommendations on to how the risks inherent in the farm and its processes
can either be managed more effectively or avoided entirely. The recommendations

surveyors make are an extremely important part of the survey process. They are
regularly linked by insurers to the insurance policy through special policy conditions
that require recommendations to be completed, usually within a specified period.
Policy conditions may also specify that recommendations must be reported to insurers
once completed, and it is not unknown for insurers to require a further visit by the
surveyor to ensure that recommendations have been completed properly and that
safety routines are being put into practice properly.
Ownership of survey reports

It might be thought that the farmer would automatically have full rights to see the
contents of a survey report on his farm. In fact, this is not necessarily the case, and in
practice he may only be allowed to see the recommendations that the report contains.
This is because survey reports are owned by those who commission them, and this is
generally the insurers who are being asked to insure the operation.
It is most important, from all points of view, that a surveyor has the freedom to deal
with all issues he finds on a survey and that he is able to comment on them frankly
and in confidence. If a farm is not up to a suitable standard, the surveyor must feel free
to say so! However, he may be reluctant to do so if he knows that his comments are
going to be seen by the owner. Insurers, therefore, tend to guarantee confidentiality to
their surveyors. Though in theory this means that farmers are prevented from reading
reports on their own operations, in reality, confidentiality is a fall-back position that
is infrequently used, and report information is usually readily available. Farmers also
respect the skills of surveyors, very much welcome their suggestions on how their
farms can be improved and are generally keen to implement their recommendations.
Use of surveys and survey reports by insurers

Surveys and survey reports are an extremely important part of the underwriting
process and of the on-going handling of risk analysis under aquaculture insurance
policies. Insurers rely on them extensively when analysing the risks to which an
operation is exposed and when deciding on the insurance terms and conditions they
will offer. Insurers will frequently liaise closely with individual surveyors, seeking their
comments and taking their advice on many issues, especially on changes and alterations
to the farm. Insurers will also encourage farmers to consult surveyors in advance of
making changes, and insurers will also request midterm surveys if they believe a farm
has gone through radical change.
Cost of surveys
Survey costs are levied in different ways. They may be charged directly to the farmer
or met by the insurer out of the premium. As to what costs are, these vary enormously.
Survey fees depend on may factors, from the size of the farm, whether it may be one
of several farms all being surveyed at the same time, to the nature and complexity of
the operation. Suffice it to say that, historically, surveys have proved to be a very cost
effective, hence their wide use.
On-going risk analysis through insurance policy conditions

Insurers recognize that change is a constant feature of aquaculture. They know that
farmers are always trying to improve their systems and indeed, to make them safer.
They also know that farms exist in a constantly changing environment and that the
people who run them are also free to move to other opportunities. What is important
to insurers is that they find out about changes, that they have the opportunity to
analyze the risk associated with each change and that they can defend their commercial
position when change alters the risk profile of a farm they are insuring.
Change in aquaculture can have a dramatic effect on risk levels, either raising or
lowering them. It is a situation that is normal in insurance generally, although arguably
it is of much greater significance in aquaculture because of both the incredible pace
of change in the industry and because of its unique nature. With respect to the latter,
aquaculture is is in a class of its own! The fact that is it conducted in water and that it
utilizes such a wide range of species, growing systems and geographically different and
challenging locations means that to be profitable, insurers have to exercise very tight
control over change, and that means that they must have a way of monitoring it and
responding to it.
The importance of analysing the risks associated with “change”

The process of monitoring, analysing, and in some cases actually controlling change
is achieved by insurers through special conditions in their policy wordings. These
conditions are used to achieve and control the following:
• mandatory reporting of material changes;
• stocking densities;
• reporting of losses and potential claims;
• rights of subrogation; and
• individual “warranties”.
Mandatory reporting of material changes

“Materiality” is described in Footnote 1. Aquaculture policies contain reporting clauses
that stipulate that all material changes must be advised to an insurer, who, under the
terms of the same clause, reserves the right to alter or amend the terms and conditions
of the policy, including/excluding coverage or even cancelling the policy. Some versions
of the clause advise the policy holder to contact the insurer if there is any uncertainty
as to whether a change is “material” or not.
The effect of these material change clauses is that the process of risk analysis is
carried on throughout the life of the policy. The clause is designed to cause every
material change to be reported to insurers so that they can evaluate it in the light of
their experience and analyze the impact it may have on risk levels.
Insurers recognize that change does not automatically translate into increased risk,
and indeed that the aquaculture industry has made enormous strides, not to mention
huge investments, in changing to reduce the risks it faces. So the approach of insurers in
wanting to know about changes to farms should not be seen in a negative light. In using
their experience to analyze the affect on risk that change brings about, aquaculture
insurers should be judged to be making a very positive contribution to the on-going
success of the industry.
Control of stocking densities

Stocking density is a key factor in the husbandry of all types of organisms. It is
particularly important in aquaculture, again, because of the wide diversity of the
environmental conditions in which the industry operates and the wide range of
organisms that it farms. As far as insurers are concerned, it is a vital factor, and one
that must be very carefully controlled because any increase in stocking density directly
increases the risk to stock from disease. The higher the stocking density, the greater the
risk of the development of disease, the extent to which it spreads and the speed with
which it does so.
Stocking density levels also impact on the general ability of stock to withstand stress.
Stress can arise from a very wide range of factors, from extreme water temperatures,
exposure to pollution and plankton blooms, to the effects of storms. The severity of
losses following on from such events can be directly related to the stocking density
at which the stock was held at the time of the event. Insurers, therefore, set stocking
density limits in their policies that insureds must adhere to at all times. If the density
on a farm increases (it rarely decreases!), insurers must be advised, and if the increase is
significant, they will be entitled to amend their insuring terms accordingly.
Reporting losses and analysing threatening situations

As has been emphasized, all changes in circumstances in aquaculture need to be analyzed
from a risk point of view. However, never is this more important that in the case of
the occurrence or threat of a loss of any kind! It is crucial to analyze both the level of
the threat and the opportunities for mitigating the effect it may have. The standard loss
reporting clauses in aquaculture policies all stipulate that insurers must be advised as
soon as fish start dying or when an event occurs that puts stock in jeopardy.
Insurers have a great deal of experience in handling aquaculture losses of every
conceivable kind. They are, therefore, very well positioned to analyze threatening
situations and to advise their insureds on the best course of action to take to save their
stock. Their interests and those of their insureds are almost completely in tandem!
Both parties stand to lose if a serious loss occurs; the assured through the substantial
deductibles (self-insured factors) that will inevitably apply, and the insurer because
they will have to pay the largest portion of the loss.
The loss reporting process should, once again, not be seen in a negative light. The
immediate involvement of insurers in loss situations is an extremely positive aspect of
being insured! Insurers can bring to bear levels of experience and practical support that
the farmer is very unlikely to find anywhere else. This is a very valuable by-product
of being insured and one that, over many years, has resulted in massive savings to the
industry.
Rights of subrogation
This clause does not actually constitute part of the risk analysis process, but the effect
it can have “after the fact” is very important. However, it is a largely ignored part of
the risk analysis picture.
Subrogation rights are reserved for insurers, in a specific policy condition. This
gives the insurer the automatic right to benefit from the insured’s right to take legal
action against a third party who is responsible for losses to the insured’s stock. In other
words, if a claim has been paid, the insurer can take over and exercise the insured’s right
to sue any party responsible for the damage. The classic case is when a third party is
responsible for the death of stock by polluting the watercourse a farm draws from. The
insurer will seek to recover by suing the polluter in the name of the farm owner.
As far as the analysis of risk is concerned, the point to be made is that the potential
for third-party pollution to cause losses may well be have been recognized during the
pre-insurance risk analysis processes. Recognition, however, led to the conclusion that
the risk was not significant, because if pollution actually occured, insurers would be
able to recover from the responsible party by using the subrogation provisions in the
policy.
Subrogation is an important consideration in a number of risk analysis issues in
aquaculture. These include the risk of the introduction of disease through bought-in
juveniles, the risk of loss from contaminated feed, the risk of failure of equipment such
as pumps and aerators, and indeed the risk of basic design failure. As far as the latter
is concerned, a question increasingly asked by insurers is – Who designed the farm?
The objective behind the question is to identify who is responsible for design, so that
recovery can be instituted against them if a basic design failure causes a loss.
One aspect of insurance that is rarely recognized is the benefit that the effect of
being insured can have on the way the farmer is treated by third parties who are
outside his influence but who can do him damage. In the eyes of a large potential
polluter, for example, a farmer on his own is much less of a concern than a farmer who
is insured! Forced to defend himself using his own resources, the farmer may well be
at a distinct disadvantage as the injured party because the financial resources he can
use to prosecute a polluter are inevitably limited. Potential polluters know this and
tend to behave accordingly. A farmer who is insured, however, is a totally different
proposition, and one who potential polluters will treat with much more respect. They
know that the farmer has behind him the resources and expertise of his insurers, and
that, for them, is a much more formidable proposition.
The ability of insurers to recover from third parties is an important part of the
whole picture, and while it may not be relevant to the analysis of the extent and likely
occurrence of risk generally, it is a very relevant factor in analysing the potential cost
of risk.
The application of individual conditions to policies

In addition to relying on standard clauses, insurers also design specific one-off
conditions, applying them to individual policies to meet individual situations. An
example might be to make it a condition of a cage-farm policy that navigation warning
lights be located on cages to warn marine traffic of their position. Such individual
policy conditions very often stem from the recommendations surveyors make in their
survey reports. Indeed, there are a wide range of circumstances in which insurers,
having analyzed risks of a situation, decide that it can be improved if a particular action
or series of actions is taken. They will then apply a special condition to the policy
accordingly.
The importance of underwriting experience in risk analysis

The aquaculture insurance market has over 30 years’ experience of the aquaculture
industry’s losses and of paying for them! This long experience is very important and
is a key element in its risk analysis processes and a reason why they are so successful.
Individual insurers are able to bring considerable experience to bear on analysing
risks, and they understand very well the vulnerabilities of the industry in its many
configurations. Their experience also enables them to make sound assessments
and judgements on new systems and species that are offered to them. Equally, the
techniques insurers have developed for analysing risks and managing them have grown
in sophistication over the years, and the routines involved are now backed by in-depth
knowledge and considerable practical experience.
CONCLUSIONS
The process of risk analysis in insurance is carried on continuously, from the initial
application for insurance, through the life the insurance policy, at renewal, and in the
aftermath of claim situations. It is very thorough and wide ranging. It is supported
by experienced professionals in many spheres and has a track record of saving the
aquaculture industry vast amounts of money, having been responsible for reducing
losses, lowering risk profiles and avoiding financial loss in all the areas of aquaculture
in which it has been applied. Above all, it has contributed to a tangible increase in
wealth in many areas and has the potential to do the same in those parts of the world
to which it’s practices have not yet spread.
ANNEX 1
ANNEX 1
Richard Arthur
EXAMPLE FISH FARM PROPOSAL FORM Comment: Note to FAO – this form
be closely checked during final set up
FOR HATCHERY AND LAND-BASED SITES ensure proper spacing and complete d
Sunderland Marine
Mutual Insurance Company Limited
Fish Farm Proposal Form

(Hatchery & Land based Sites)
1.
PROPOSER’S NAME:
CONTACT NAME:
POSITION WITHIN COMPANY:
MAILING ADDRESS:
POSTCODE: TEL NO: FAX NO:
MOBILE NO: E-MAIL:
SITE NAME:
SITE ADDRESS: POST CODE:
SITE LOCATION (Latitude and Longitude): SITE LICENCE NO:
TEL NO.: FAX. NO.: E-MAIL:
SITE MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL

FIRST NAME
SURNAME
DATE OF BIRTH
POSITION MANAGER ASS. MANAGER
QUALIFICATIONS
NUMBER OF YEARS EXPERIENCE
NUMBER OF YEARS AT THIS SITE
MOBILE NO:
TOTAL NUMBER OF PRODUCTION PERSONNEL
FOR OFFICE USE ONLY OBSERVATIONS
RECEIVED
REVIEWED
INITIATED
DATE SITE FIRST ESTABLISHED AND BY WHOM:

DATE SITE COMMENCED OPERATION UNDER PRESENT OWNERSHIP:
DETAIL ANY KNOWN OR POTENTIAL SOURCES OF RISK E.G. POLLUTION, DISEASE ETC. AT
ANY LOCATION WITHIN 5 MILES OF YOUR SITE:
ARE THERE ANY OTHER PRODUCTION FACILITIES LOCATED ON THIS WATER

SOURCE AND IF SO WHERE ARE THEY LOCATED:
PROVIDE INFORMATION ON THE PRIMARY WATER SOURCE IN THE TABLE

BELOW:
WATER PARAMETERS
WATER TEMPERATURE MIN: MAX:
D.O. LEVELS MIN: MAX:
pH LEVELS MIN: MAX:
SALINITY (Where relevant) MIN: MAX:
FLOW RATE MIN: MAX:
PROVIDE INFORMATION ON THE SECONDARY WATER SOURCE IN THE TABLE

BELOW:
WATER PARAMETERS
WATER TEMPERATURE MIN: MAX:
D.O. LEVELS MIN: MAX:
pH LEVELS MIN: MAX:
SALINITY (Where relevant) MIN: MAX:
FLOW RATE MIN: MAX:
IF THERE IS A TERTIARY WATER SOURCE THEN PLEASE INCLUDE DETAILS OF

THIS SOURCE AT THE END OF THIS FORM.
PROVIDE DETAILS OF FILTRATION SYSTEMS USED ON INTAKE e.g.
PROVIDE DETAILS OF INFLUENT WATER TEMPERATURE MANIPULATION, IF ANY
PROVIDE DETAILS OF AERATION / OXYGEN SYSTEMS
IS THE UNIT SUBJECT TO ANY FORM OF RECIRCULATION
WATER MONITORING: FREQUENCY

METHOD
STATE ANY WATER QUALITY PROBLEMS PAST & PRESENT:
WHAT IS THE SOURCE AND TYPE OF FEED USED:
IS FOOD FED AUTOMATICALLY OR BY HAND:

STOCK – CURRENT
PROJECTED PROJECTED PROJECTED
NUMBER WEIGHT AT MORTALITY TO HARVEST/ HARVEST/
DATE OF TRANSFER
SPECIES AT TRANSFER TO TRANSFER TO SITE SUPPLIER HARVEST/ TRANSFER TRANSFER
TO SITE
SITE MAX/MIN TRANSFER OFF WEIGHT DATE
SITE OFF SITE OFF SITE
Atlantic Salmon
STOCK – FUTURE (WITHIN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS)

PROJECTED PROJECTED PROJECTED
NUMBER AT WEIGHT AT MORTALITY HARVEST / HARVEST
DATE OF TRANSFER
SPECIES TRANSFER TO TRANSFER TO SUPPLIER TO HARVEST/ TRANSFER TRANSFER
TO SITE
SITE SITE MAX/MIN TRANSFER OFF WEIGHT DATE
SITE OFF SITE OFF SITE
Atlantic Salmon
OVERALL MAXIMUM STOCK VALUE: CURRENCY AMOUNT

COVER REQUIRED: YES NO
2.
EQUIPMENT:
TYPE: TANKS, PONDS, MANUFACTURER/
DIMENSIONS YR OF MANUFACTURE MATERIAL NUMBER VALUE
RACEWAYS ETC BUILDER
COVER REQUIRED: YES NO
ATTACH AN ANNOTATED PLAN OR PROVIDE A DIAGRAM OF THE

SITE:
SHOW:
1. NUMBER & FULL CONSTRUCTION DETAILS OF ALL TANKS OR HOLDING SYSTEMS.
2. PATH OF WATER FLOW, FROM SOURCE TO DISCHARGE / RECIRCULATION.
3. DETAILS OF ALTERNATIVE WATER SUPPLIES IN THE EVENT OF MAIN SUPPLY FAILURE
& PERCENTAGE REUSE IF APPLICABLE.
4. DETAILS OF PUMPING WATER (IF ANY).
5. DETAILS OF FILTRATION AND AERATION (IF ANY).
6. DETAILS OF ALARM SYSTEMS INSTALLED (IF ANY) INCLUDING DETAILS OF THE
FACTORS MONITORED (E.G. WATER TEMPERATURE, WATER FLOW RATE, WATER LEVEL
ETC) AND THE METHOD OF SIGNALLING A SYSTEM FAILURE.
7. STATE REQUIRED MINIMUM FLOW RATE AND DURATION OF SUPPLY AT THIS MINIMUM
RATE.
8. DETAILS OF ALL PRODUCTION PLANT, PUMPS, TREATMENT APPARATUS, GENERATORS
ETC.
9. IF THIS SYSTEM WAS PURPOSE BUILT PLEASE ADVISE DATE OF COMMISSION /
CONSTRUCTION, DESIGNOR, CONSULTANTS USED & COPY OF ORIGINAL PLANS.
3.
MAXIMUM STOCKING DENSITY: Kg/m2 or Kg/m3 WHEN THIS OCCURS:
STOCK HEALTH RECORD (DETAIL ANY PROBLEMS DURING THE LAST 5

YEARS)
CAUSATIVE AGENT DATE TREATMENT FREQUENCY OUTCOME
DETAIL DISEASE MONITORING & LABORATORY FACILITIES:-

ON SITE:
OFF SITE:
VETERINARIAN USED:NAME TELEPHONE NO.:
FREQUENCY OF HEALTH CHECKS:
BY WHOM NAME QUALIFICATIONS
EXPERIENCE
SECURITY
GENERAL
ALARMS
GUARD PATROL YES NO IF YES 24 HOURS YES NO
IS ALL MECHANICAL PLANT, INCLUDING PUMP AND ALARM SYSTEMS, THE

SUBJECT OF MAINTENANCE CONTRACTS? IF SO PROVIDE DETAILS:
EMERGENCY AVAILABILITY OF
YES NO PROXIMITY TO SITE:
STAFF ON SITE
IS THE SITE EXPOSED TO ANY OF THE FOLLOWING

PARTICULAR RISKS: YES NO IF YES STATE PREVENTATIVE/REMEDIAL MEASURES
STORM
TSUNAMI
DISEASE
BLOOMS
(ALGAL,PLANKTON)
POLLUTION
PREDATION
WATER SUPPLY
FLUCTUATION
WATER QUALITY
DEBRIS EXPOSURE AT
INTAKE etc.
THEFT
OTHER (DETAILS)
4.
PREVIOUS LOSS HISTORY DURING THE LAST 10 YEARS (WHETHER OR NOT
THE SUBJECT OF A CLAIM)
STOCK
CAUSE OF AVERAGE NETT
DATE SPECIES NUMBER GROSS LOSS
LOSS WEIGHT SETTLEMENT
Atlantic Salmon
Atlantic Salmon
Atlantic Salmon
Atlantic Salmon
Atlantic Salmon
Atlantic Salmon
Atlantic Salmon
Atlantic Salmon
Atlantic Salmon
Atlantic Salmon
NAME OF PRESENT INSURERS:

RENEWAL DATE:
NAME OF ANY PREVIOUS INSURER:
IN RESPECT OF THE PROPERTY, THE SUBJECT OF THIS PROPOSAL, HAS

ANY INSURER:
(A) DECLINED: YES NO

(B) CANCELLED COVER: YES NO
(C) IMPOSED RESTRICTED TERMS OR ADDITIONAL PREMIUMS: YES NO
IF YES, PROVIDE DETAILS:
PLEASE PROVIDE ANY OTHER INFORMATION WHICH YOU FEEL MAY BE

RELEVANT:
SIGNING THIS FORM DOES NOT BIND THE PROVIDER OR INSURER TO COMPLETE
THE INSURANCE, BUT IT IS AGREED THAT THIS PROPOSAL SHALL BE THE BASIS
OF THE INSURANCE CONTRACT ENTERED INTO WITH THE COMPANY.
I HEREBY DECLARE THAT THE PARTICULARS AND ANSWERS GIVEN IN THIS

PROPOSAL ARE IN EVERY RESPECT TRUE AND CORRECT AND THAT I HAVE NOT
WITHHELD ANY INFORMATION CALCULATED TO INFLUENCE THE DECISION OF THE
COMPANY IN REGARD TO THE UNDERWRITING OF THE RISKS TO WHICH THIS
PROPOSAL RELATES.
FAILURE TO DISCLOSE ALL RELEVANT FACTS MAY INVALIDATE YOUR POLICY.
INSURERS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY BE ADVISED OF ALL MATERIAL CHANGES OR

ALTERATIONS OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS PROPOSAL. A MATERIAL
CHANGE IS ONE WHICH WOULD INFLUENCE THE JUDGEMENT OF A PRUDENT INSURER
IN SETTING THE TERMS OR PREMIUMS OR DETERMINING WHETHER TO CONTINUE
ACCEPTANCE OF THE RISK.
SIGNATURE:
SIGNATURE: DATE: DD/MM/YY
DATE: DD/MM/YY
PRINT
PRINTNAME:
NAME: POSITION:
POSITION:
COMPANY:
COMPANY:
COMPANY ADDRESS:
COMPANY ADDRESS:
Managers
Salvus Bain (Management)
Managers Limited
Salvus Bain (Management) Limited
Registered Office: The Esplanade, Sunderland, SR2 7BQ, UK

Registered Office:
Tel: +44 (0) 191 TheFax:
568 2000 Esplanade, Sunderland,
+ 44 (0) 191 565 8625 E-mail: SR2 7BQ, UK
[email protected]
Tel: +44 (0) 191 568 2000 Fax: + 44 (0) 191 565 8625 E-mail: [email protected]
247
Risk analysis in aquaculture –

experiences from small-scale
shrimp farmers of India
N.R. Umesh G. Ravi Babu

National Center for Sustainable Aquaculture National Center for Sustainable Aquaculture
69-17-8, SBI Officers Colony, Rajendra Nagar 69-17-8, SBI Officers Colony, Rajendra Nagar
Kakinada-533003, AP, India Kakinada-533003, AP, India
[email protected]; [email protected]
C.V. Mohan A.B. Chandra Mohan

Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the National Center for Sustainable Aquaculture
Pacific (NACA) 69-17-8, SBI Officers Colony, Rajendra Nagar
Suraswadi Building, Department of Fisheries Kakinada-533003, AP, India
Kasetsart University Campus, Ladyao, Jatujak [email protected]
[email protected] P.A. Padiyar
Food And Agriculture Organization of the United
M.J. Phillips Nations
Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the Rehabilitation Support Coordination Unit
Pacific (NACA) Jl. Angsa No. 12, Ateuk Deah Tanoh,Banda Aceh,
Suraswadi Building, Department of Fisheries 2344
Kasetsart University Campus, Ladyao, Jatujak Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, Indonesia
Bangkok 10900, Thailand [email protected]
[email protected]
B.V. Bhat
Marine Products Export Development Authority
(MPEDA),
MPEDA House, Panampilly Avenue, P.B.4272
Cochin 682036, India
[email protected]
Umesh, N.R., Mohan, C.V., Phillips, M.J., Bhat, B.V., Ravi Babu, G., Chandra
Mohan, A.B. and Padiyar, P.A. 2008. Risk analysis in aquaculture – experiences
from small-scale shrimp farmers of India. In M.G. Bondad-Reantaso, J.R. Arthur and
R.P. Subasinghe (eds). Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture. FAO
Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper. No. 519. Rome, FAO. pp. 247–264.
ABSTRACT
The Network of Aquaculture Centers in Asia and the Pacific (NACA), in association with
the Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA) has been implementing
a collaborative programme for the last several years to support shrimp farmers in India
to adopt better management practices (BMPs) for disease control, coastal management
and sustainable farming. This programme was started with a longitudinal epidemiological
study to identify hazards (disease, food safety, social, environmental and financial) and
assess risks in small-scale shrimp farms in Andhra Pradesh (2000–2001). The “risk
factors” identified using epidemiological tools provided an understanding of the disease
causation and possible risk management options (i.e. BMPs) for reducing the likelihood
of shrimp disease outbreaks and low pond productivity. Formulation of BMPs was
followed by a village demonstration programme (2003–2006) that successfully organized
small-scale farmers into self-help groups for adoption of BMPs. The success of the village
demonstration programme generated considerable enthusiasm among the aquaculture
farming community, and there are now more requests from many quarters for conducting
such programmes in the different regions of India. As a result, aquaclubs/aquaculture
societies have been established in the maritime states for reducing disease risks and
effective communication of risk management strategies with a participatory approach. In
order to sustain the work initiated by the MPEDA-NACA project and provide a thrust
to sustainable aquaculture development, MPEDA has established a separate agency – the
National Centre for Sustainable Aquaculture aimed to provide technical support to the
primary aquaculture societies and build capacity among small farmers to reduce risks
and to produce quality shrimp in a sustainable manner. Although the programme was
carried out in five coastal states of India (Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu, Gujarat, Karnataka
and Orissa), the findings have wider application to other coastal shrimp farming areas
in India.
BACKGROUND
The Network of Aquaculture Centers in Asia and the Pacific (NACA) in association
with the Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA) has been involved
in supporting small-scale shrimp farmers in India to adopt better management practices
(BMPs) for shrimp disease control, improved management of coastal environments
and sustainable farming. The initial work was not formally planned to follow the risk
analysis (RA) approach, but the approach adopted eventually mirrored some of the
requirements of a more formal risk analysis, and the experiences may provide valuable
lessons in the application of risk analysis in small-scale aquaculture farming.
The aim of the MPEDA/NACA project was to develop strategies for reducing the
risk of shrimp disease outbreaks and improve farm productivity through formation
of “aquaclubs” (cluster, farmer self-help groups) to tackle shrimp disease problems
more effectively. The demonstration programmes were successful in organizing small-
scale farmers into self-help groups for adoption of BMPs. The demonstration of risk
management practices in cluster farms gave promising results, with improvements in
both profits and productivity during the period of demonstrations. In farms adopting
better shrimp health management recommendations, returns shifted from a loss in 80
percent of the ponds to a profit in 80 percent of the ponds, a good indication of the
viability of the management measures resulting from the study. The success has now led
to an increasingly wide application of the approach in India and elsewhere in Asia.
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT

The MPEDA/NACA collaboration started with the conduct of a longitudinal
epidemiological study to identify hazards (disease: horizontal and vertical transmission
of diseases in selected shrimp farming areas, including investigation of hatcheries and
broodstock, food safety, social, environmental and financial aspects) and assess risks
of key hazards in small-scale shrimp farms in Andhra Pradesh during 2000–2001. The
epidemiological study, which covered a total of 385 ponds in two districts of Andhra
Pradesh, identified the hazards (or “what can go wrong”) at the farm level as (a)
shrimp disease outbreaks and (b) low pond productivity, for further analysis. The risk
of the occurrence/impact associated with these hazards was then analyzed using an
epidemiological approach, and a range of risk factors were identified (e.g. presence of
Risk analysis in aquaculture – experiences from small-scale shrimp farmers of India 249
whitespot syndrome virus (WSSV) in shrimp seed, shrimp pond depth, soil conditions,
etc.) that were significantly associated with these outcomes. Using epidemiological
analysis, these “risk factors” provided an understanding of white spot disease (WSD)
causation and possible risk management options for reducing the likelihood of shrimp
disease outbreaks and low pond productivity.
In aquaculture systems, a risk factor is a crop-related factor that simply increases or
decreases the probability of occurrence of an adverse event happening during a specified
time period. For example, WSD is an adverse event during the shrimp-cropping period.
If a high prevalence of WSSV in seed batches stocked in ponds increases the probability
of occurrence of WSD, then the high prevalence of WSSV in seed batches is called a
risk factor to WSD. Epidemiology investigates the statistical and biological significance
of the relationship between the adverse event and the hypothesized risk factor to
determine whether the hypothesized risk factor is a risk factor or not. The risk factor
study of the MPEDA/NACA project considered shrimp disease outbreak and poor
production as adverse crop events for the epidemiological analyses.
In total, the study covered 365 ponds in the state of Andhra Pradesh (MPEDA/
NACA, 2003). The ponds were selected randomly. WSSV has been established as
the “necessary cause” of WSD. However, presence of the necessary cause alone will
not lead to a WSD outbreak in a pond. In a farm situation, a number of “component
causes” (risk factors) along with the “necessary cause” might become “sufficient cause”
to produce WSD outbreaks. The MPEDA/NACA study clearly shows that WSD is
not caused by any one factor. Rather a number of risk factors influence the occurrence
of WSD in the farm. These risk factors occur throughout the shrimp cropping cycle
and in general terms, fall into the following categories during the different stages of the
crop cycle:
• season of stocking;
• pond preparation;
• pond filling and water preparation;
• seed quality and screening;
• water management;
• pond bottom management;
• feed management; and
• disease treatments.
The risk factors at each stage of the cropping cycle and their relationship to WSD
outbreaks are illustrated below in a “web of disease causation” in Figure 1.
The following summarize the main points shown in the “web”:
• A WSD outbreak is the end result of a series of actions or changes from healthy
shrimp through to disease outbreak.
• At each stage of the cropping cycle, a number of factors influence the development
of the disease in individual animals and also in the population of shrimp in each
pond.
• WSSV can enter the shrimp and pond through different routes, including shrimp
seed, water, carrier animals and transfer of infected animals and farm equipment
from one farm to another.
• Adverse environmental factors combined with a high prevalence of infected
shrimp among the pond population are necessary for a mass disease outbreak to
occur.
Management factors can be used to control environmental factors and reduce risks
of WSD occurring in the pond. To be successful in controlling shrimp disease, one has
to manage all potential risks at different stages of the cropping cycle.
The results from the shrimp disease risk factor study clearly show a number of
significant factors that influence shrimp disease outbreaks and shrimp yields at the
pond level, many of which can be managed at the farm level. The risk factor study
FIGURE 1
Causes of white spot disease
Broodstock Healthy
Prevalence shrimp
in seed Algal bloom
Transport
Introduced Water colour
stock Presence of Algal crash
virus
Water
Filtration Stop eating pH
Vectors
Disinfection Increase Toxins
Predators susceptibility
Reservoirs Poor pond
No aeration bottom
Infection
Water source Temperature Benthic
algae
Multiplication
Cannibalism in pond Clear water
Not removing dead shrimp Lack of

Disease fertilizers
outbreak
Source: MPEDA/NACA, 2003.
clearly demonstrates that WSD is not caused by any one factor but by a number of
factors that interact and influence the occurrence of the disease. Thus, an integrated
management and extension approach is necessary to deal with the key factors that
contribute to disease occurrence.
The findings provide a strong foundation for reducing shrimp disease losses to
farmers, improving farm-level capacities and skills in shrimp health management,
minimizing the risks of spread of shrimp diseases to other areas and improving shrimp
farm productivity and profitability (MPEDA/NACA, 2003).
RISK MANAGEMENT
The risk management objective was to develop practical measures for containing/
preventing shrimp disease outbreaks that should specifically cover identification
of shrimp disease risk factors, diagnosis of problems and management strategies to
control disease in farms. The results of the epidemiological study provided the basis for
the project team to work closely with farmers and scientists to identify practical farm-
level risk management interventions. Eventually two key areas were identified:
• Better management practices (BMPs) that are practical farm-level interventions to
address the key “risk factors”. These were subsequently expanded to include all
relevant shrimp disease risk factors, plus food safety and environmental risks.
• Farmer organization/self-help groups/clusters to address social and financial risks
associated with farming and allow effective dissemination of the BMPs among
group members.
The BMPs used were good pond preparation, good quality seed selection, water
quality management, feed management, health monitoring, pond bottom monitoring,
disease management, emergency harvest, harvest and post-harvest, food safety and
environmental awareness. The BMPs were disseminated through communication
channels involving farmer meetings, regular pond visits, training of extension workers
and publication of ten brochures on steps of BMP adoption and booklets on shrimp
health management and extension.
The BMPs were implemented through farmer groups and clusters, a cluster being
a group of interdependent shrimp ponds situated in a specified geographical locality
and typically being comprised of the farmers whose ponds are dependent on the same
water source. The cluster concept makes it practical to communicate risks and risk
management to farmers more effectively to reduce risks and maximize returns.
RISK COMMUNICATION
The risk management measures (BMPs) have to be simple and practical but science-
based. Promoting their adoption requires an understanding of the farmers and their
culture systems. Involvement of local institutions is also very important in this process.
Communication with all stakeholders was therefore important in the promotion of
BMP adoption by farmers in clusters.
Risk communication involved conducting training and demonstration of appropriate
shrimp disease control measures, which should especially include demonstration of
efficient farm management practices for containing viral and other diseases in selected
farms through cooperation and self-help among shrimp farmers in affected areas.
A village demonstration programme for effective communication of risks, promoting
adoption of risk management measures (BMPs) and capacity building of farmers was
started in Mogalthur Village of West Godavari District of Andhra Pradesh during 2002,
and has been very successful in forming a participatory movement of farmers across
the country. The demonstration programmes were successful in organizing small-
scale farmers into self-help groups for adoption of BMPs. The success of the village
demonstration programme generated considerable enthusiasm among the aquaculture
farming community, and there are now more requests from many quarters for
conducting such programmes in the different regions of India. As a result, aquaclubs/
aquaculture societies have been established in the maritime states for community
management with a participatory approach (MPEDA/NACA, 2005.). In order to
continue the work initiated by the MPEDA-NACA project and to provide the much
needed thrust through institutional and policy changes to the extension work in coastal
aquaculture development, MPEDA has established a separate agency, the National
Centre for Sustainable Aquaculture (NaCSA), with the approval of the Government
of India.
PROGRESS
The project has made significant progress, increasing from five farmers who adopted
the cluster farm approach in 2001 to 730 farmers (813 ha) in 28 aquaclubs in five states
(Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Orissa, Gujarat and Tamilnadu) in 2006 (Figure 2). The
production of BMP shrimp through the programme has increased from 4 tonnes in
2001 to 870 tonnes in 2006. The success of the project led to the establishment of
NaCSA in March 2007, which will facilitate links between aquaculture stakeholders,
strengthen farmer societies and enable farmers to formulate common policies, strategies
and voluntary guidelines.
LESSONS LEARNED
While not a formal risk analysis, the approach used by the project led to significant
benefits to the participating farmers. The project reduced disease risks in cluster farms
significantly. The prevalence of disease in the demonstration farms was reduced from 82
percent in 2003 to 17 percent in 2006 in Andhra Pradesh, while in non-demonstration
ponds the reduction in disease prevalence was limited during the same period, as shown
in Table 1 below.
Efficient use of resources such as feed, seed, fuel and finance resulted in minimizing
the cost of production and maximizing profits. Compared to surrounding non-
demonstration ponds, the crop highlights included:
FIGURE 2
Development of the NACA/MPEDA Project
Expansion to 5
states
Expansion to
other states
Pilot trace-
ability A
Contract hatchery A P
2001 seed production
P
Survey
2 2 K
of 365
2 O 0 A
ponds 2 0 K
in 0 A R 0 2007
Nellore 0 0
and 0 0 5 6
West 3 4 G
God. G T
districts 2002
2003 N U
for risk Farm- U NaCSA
level Village-
factors level
2004
demon- Creek-level
stration: extension: 2005
extension:
5 farmers 1 village State-level
6 villages
10 ponds 1 aquaclub expansion: 2006
58 farmers 7 aquaclubs 3 States 5 states:
7 ha 130 farmers
4 tonnes 108 ponds Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh 2007+
254 ponds (AP), Karnataka (AP), Karnataka National
58 ha
173 ha (KA) and (KA) , Gujarat (GJ) , Centre for
22 tonnes
40 tonnes Gujarat (GJ) Orissa (OR) and Sustainable
19 aquaclubs Ta milnadu (TN) Aquaculture
736 farmers 28 Aquaclubs
1187 ponds 730 farmers
663 ha 1370 ponds
672 tonnes 813 ha
870 tonnes
TABLE 1
Comparison of the prevalence (%) of disease in BMP and non-BMP shrimp ponds in from 2003
to 2006
Year No. of BMP ponds Disease prevalence No. of non-BMP Disease prevalence Improvement
in BMP ponds ponds in non-BMP Ponds
2003 108 82% 164 89% + 7%
2004 254 37% 187 52% +20%
2005 1187 15% 517 42% +27%
2006 1370 17% 901 44% +27%
• 30 percent increase in production;

• 8 percent increase in size of shrimp;
• 30 percent improvement in survival; and
• 31 percent reduction in disease prevalence.
Economic analysis clearly demonstrates that farmers adopting BMPs have higher
profitability and lower cost of production, and are able to produce quality and traceable
shrimp without using any banned chemicals. In the demonstration ponds in Andhra
Pradesh, for every Rs1000 (US$25) invested by a farmer, around Rs520 (US$13) was
earned as profit in 2006. This was a substantial increase compared to the Rs250 (US$6)
profit made by non-demonstration farmers during the same period.
The programme led to reduction in other aquaculture-related risks. The environmental
risks were also reduced by the decrease in pollution resulting from reduced use of
chemicals, antibiotics and limited discharge of sediments and water exchange. Food
safety risks were reduced substantially by discouraging the use of banned chemicals
in cluster BMP ponds. Around 45 random shrimp samples from 29 clusters examined
for the presence of banned antibiotics during the summer crop of 2006 tested negative.
The shrimp produced in the demonstration farms were traced through a pilot-scale
traceability programme in which the produce from a pond was identified by an eight
digit number comprising State, District, Mandal, Village, Farm and Pond details. Based
on backward linkage, the source of seed (including the mother prawn) was traceable
and presently, work is underway to establish forward linkages with exporters.
The social impacts are reduction in risks to livelihoods and improved awareness of
biosecurity and environment among cluster farmers.
SUSTAINING THE PROCESS

The risk analysis approach and the management measures adopted from the analysis
show that BMPs and group management are promising models for farmers to work
together to reduce disease, food safety, environmental, financial and social risks and earn
their livelihood by helping the industry to meet customer demand through adoption
of sustainable and environmentally friendly farming practices. The establishment of
NaCSA is expected to further strengthen the BMP programme and give a boost to
farmer societies. NaCSA will assist farmer societies to implement BMPs, participate in
traceability and certification programmes and access premium international/domestic
markets. The following steps are being taken by NaCSA to sustain the process:
Promoting BMPs to improve aquaculture productivity and profits

One of the most significant outcomes of the MPEDA/NACA project is the significant
reduction in disease prevalence and improved productivity and profitability in aquaclub
farms through adoption of BMPs. Successful implementation of BMPs reduced disease
prevalence and increased the number of planned (normal) harvests, leading to better
crop outcomes. NaCSA will continue to expand the process through formation of
more self-help farmer societies and widespread promotion of BMPs through the
aquaculture sector.
Capacity-building and empowerment of primary producers

Over the past five years the MPEDA/NACA village demonstration programme has
contributed to significant awareness and capacity building among farmers in the
aquaclubs. Increased interaction among farmers, improved community dialogue and
more opportunities for mutual help has helped to create good will among farmers
and enabled capacity building and empowerment. Cooperation among farmers and a
collective approach has empowered farmers to obtain high-quality farm inputs (seed,
feed, lime, etc.) at competitive prices. Cooperation and a collective approach have also
enabled shrimp farmers to be more responsive to environmental concerns and forged
strong unity in dealing with common problems (e.g. desilting of drains). NaCSA will
continue to expand the process through formation of more self-help farmer societies in
all the shrimp farming states of India.
Facilitating improved service provision to the sector

Provision of improved inputs to the sector through the facilitation of sector-servicing
initiatives could help to further strengthen and sustain the industry. Such an initiative
would encompass all forms of service including finance, microcredit, diagnostics,
insurance, quality inputs, technical inputs, etc.
Connecting farmers to markets for realization of better price

NaCSA will work towards bringing processors and farmers together to improve
harvest and post-harvest practices to further increase the quality of shrimp supplied to
the processing plants and seek to obtain premium prices for farmers for quality product.
NaCSA will work to explore opportunities for facilitating certification programmes
and implement traceability schemes. Further, the implementation of BMPs by the
farmers groups can result in better value realization for the products, which can also
create a niche for such products in the global market. The branded products are value
earners in the international market.
Food security and sustainable livelihoods

The development of coastal aquaculture in the country has enhanced the socio-
economic condition of the rural communities. Direct as well as indirect employment
opportunities have improved the livelihood condition in the villages. Through the
formation of aquaculture societies, self-empowerment of farmers is also programmed.
The ways and means to reduce the cost of production will be explored. Implementation
of BMPs by an organized farming sector would contribute to food security and also
ensure sustainable livelihoods for the small-scale farmers involved.
REFERENCES
MPEDA/NACA. 2003. Shrimp health management extension manual. Marine Products
Export Development Authority (MPEDA), Cochin, India, 46 pp.
MPEDA/NACA. 2005. Technical assistance on shrimp disease control and coastal
management report on village demonstration programme–2005. Network of Aquaculture
Centres in Asia-Pacific (NACA). Bangkok, Thailand, 81 pp.(unpublished report).
255
PART 2
Proceedings of the
FAO/NACA expert workshop on
understanding and applying risk
analysis in aquaculture
Rayong, Thailand, 7–11 June 2007
257
Proceedings of the FAO/NACA

Expert Workshop on
Understanding and Applying Risk
Analysis in Aquaculture
Rayong, Thailand, 7–11 June 2007
Background
As a food-producing sector, aquaculture has surpassed both capture fisheries and the
terrestrial farmed meat production systems in terms of average annual growth rate.
However, it has a number of biosecurity concerns that pose risks and hazards to both
its development and management, and to the aquatic environment and society.
Aquaculture faces risks similar to those of the agriculture sector. However, as
aquaculture is very diverse (in terms of species, environments, systems and practices),
the range of hazards and the perceived risks are complex. In general terms, “risk” is
defined as “a combination of the likelihood (or possibility) of occurrence of undesired
outcomes and the severity (or magnitude) of consequences”; while a “hazard” is “the
presence of a material or condition that has the potential to cause loss or harm”.
No matter how well managed a system is, there will always be associated risks and
hazards.
Multiple objectives are driving the application of risk analysis to aquaculture.
Foremost is for resource protection (human, animal and plant health; aquaculture; wild
fisheries and the general environment) as embodied in international agreements and
responsibilities. The other drivers of risk analysis are: (i) food security, (ii) trade, (iii)
consumer preference for high quality and safe products, (iv) production profitability
and (v) other investment and development objectives.
FAO initiatives in risk analysis for aquaculture and aquatic species

FAO has been actively involved in the area of risk analysis for the safe movement of
aquatic animals in cooperation with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
and the Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the Pacific (NACA), through the
APEC FWG 01/2002 “Capacity and Awareness Building on Risk Analysis (IRA) for
Aquatic Animals” and the FAO Technical Cooperation Project (TCP) TCP/RLA/0071
“Assistance to health management of shrimp culture in Latin America,” which jointly
trained, in 2002, about 130 participants representing 37 countries comprised of
regulatory authorities, administrators and aquatic animal health specialists responsible
for trade of aquatic animals and produced a Manual on Import Risk Analysis (IRA)
In the same area, a number of TCPs have small components aimed to build capacity
on risk analysis: TCP/BZE/3003 “Strengthening the Biosecurity Framework”,
TCP/LAT/3001 “Improving Aquatic Animal Health and Quality and Safety of
Aquatic Products”, TCP/IND/2902 “Health Management in Shrimp Aquaculture in
Andhra Pradesh”, TCP/BIH/3101 “Strengthening Capacity of Aquaculture Health
Management” and TCP/RAS/3101 (A) “Sustainable Aquaculture Development in
Pacific Micronesia.”
Since 2001, FAO has supported GESAMP Working Group 31 (WG31) on its specific
task on Environmental Risk Assessment and Communication in Coastal Aquaculture,
and facilitated the preparation of a related background and discussion paper for WG31.
GESAMP WG31 held a scoping and planning meeting in 2003 and in November 2006,
it held a workshop at the FAO Headquarters to discuss and finalize its study report
on Environmental Risk Assessment and Communication in Coastal Aquaculture,
which contains six case studies on the application of environmental risk assessment and
communication methods in six different contexts of coastal aquaculture. The work of
WG31 has benefitted from contributions by experts of the ICES Working Group on
Environmental Interactions of Mariculture.
FAO also completed a world review of aquaculture insurance and recognizing the
importance of risk management in aquaculture and responding to needs for advice on
this subject that have been expressed mainly in Asia, organized a regional workshop
on the promotion of fisheries and aquaculture insurance for sustainable development
of the sector, held in Bali, Indonesia, from 29 April to 3 May 2007.
There is also an on-going effort in the development of Technical Guidelines on
Genetic Resource Management in Aquaculture with a section on risk assessment and
monitoring. As well, FAO’s contribution to the risk analysis work (including capacity
building activities) in the realm of food safety in fish and fishery products within the
Codex Alimentarius framework is well recognized.
The current project: “Application of risk analysis in aquaculture production”

Responding to requests emanating from the second and third Sessions of COFI’s Sub-
Committee on Aquaculture (SCA) (SCA II, Norway, 2002; SCA III, India, 2006) to
undertake studies on risk assessment, with funding from the our Regular Programme
and under FAO’s New Cooperation Agreement with Norway, the current project was
undertaken to: (1) review the (a) current state of knowledge and understanding on
the risks involved in aquaculture development and management, and (b) application
of risk analysis (hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management and risk
communication) in aquaculture; (2) to prepare and compile a technical document that
will provide practical guidance for policy-makers and interested individuals on the
use of various types of risk analysis in aquaculture as a useful decision-making tool
for the sustainable development of the sector; and (3) organize an expert workshop
to contribute to the process of better understanding the various risks involved in
aquaculture so that they can be communicated well, more accurately assessed, and risk
management measures appropriately identified to reduce the vulnerability of people
who depend on aquaculture for their livelihoods and so that improvement in sector
sustainability, profitability and efficiency can be achieved.
Seven major risk sectors in aquaculture have been identified. These are: (i) pathogens,
(ii) food safety and public health, (iii) ecological risks (pests and invasives), (iv) genetic
issues (v) environmental issues, (vi) financial risks and (vii) social risks. While the
hazard and risk elements in some of the sectors are clearly recognized (i.e. pathogens
and food safety) and methodologies (as well as standards) for their assessment have
been developed and applied, the hazards and risks in many of these areas of concern are
still vaguely understood and methods for their assessment are not yet clearly defined.
Nevertheless, all these sectors are inextricably linked and pose serious biosecurity
threats if the risks are not reduced and managed responsibly. Therefore our attempt to
“demystify” the concept first before being discouraged by the anticipated complexity
of the process requires a good cross-sectoral and an inter-disciplinary approach to
better understand the risk analysis process and how it can be applied to sustainable
aquaculture development.
The current global focus on biosecurity is driven by such factors as: (i) increasing
volume and diversity of trade, (ii) changing agricultural practices and climate, (iii)
changing human behaviour and ecology, (iv) greater demands for public health and
preserving environmental integrity, (v) increasing public perceptions on food safety
and quality and (v) more sophisticated detection and management of hazards. Fisheries
Proceedings of the FAO/NACA Expert Workshop on Understanding and Applying Risk Analysis in Aquaculture 259
and aquaculture are now considered as an “emerging new agriculture” and will be
affected by major development issues such as trade, international property rights,
global diseases, climate change, etc. Enhancing biosecurity through cross-sectoral and
multi-thematic/disciplinary coordination of the application of risk analysis and risk
management measures will benefit the aquaculture sector and in general terms lead to
the following benefits: (i) sustainable development of the sector, (ii) improved food
safety and quality, (iii) improved human health, (iv) environmental protection, (v)
increased trade, (vi) minimized impacts on biodiversity, (vii) genetic improvement and
(viii) freer market access.
FAO is cognizant of initiatives by a number of national, regional and international
institutions tackling the various risk issues affecting aquaculture. FAO’s intent is to
begin the process of bringing together these parallel initiatives in a consultative and
participatory way aimed at a productive outcome. It is expected that this project through
the desk study, the expert workshop and the outcomes of such initiatives will further
elaborate on: (i) which risk sectors can be analysed using the RA framework as used
for biological hazards and which cannot, (ii) what other appropriate approaches can
be used or are already being used, (iii) which risk sectors are lacking in methodologies
for their assessment, and (iv) which risk sectors require development of methods for
assessment or need to be analyzed differently beyond the pathway analysis approach
of the RA framework used for biological hazards.
Technical workshop
The FAO/NACA Expert Workshop on Understanding and Applying Risk Analysis in
Aquaculture was held in Rayong, Thailand from 7 to 11 June 2007.
Purpose
The objectives of the expert workshop were:
(a) to present the desk-top study of the same title focusing on seven major risk sectors:
• pathogen risks,
• food safety and public health risks,
• ecological (pests and invasives) risks,
• genetic risks,
• environmental risks,
• financial risks, and
• social risks.
(b) to discuss the unifying principles for analysis of the various risks and identify:
• the inherent differences in approaches between sectors, and
• what risk analysis methodologies/procedures are available for the particular
hazard/s being addressed; and
(c) to provide a platform for better understanding the hazards, vulnerabilities,
uncertainties and risks affecting the aquaculture sector, as well as the connections
between the different risk events and patterns and to identify integrated approaches
to risk management and perspectives on how to share risks and responsibilities.
Participation
Forty-two aquaculture experts (policy-makers, risk analysis practitioners and technical
experts in various aspects, e.g. diseases, food safety, genetics, environment, socio-
economics, aquaculture insurance) representing various international, regional and
national organizations and institutions in Asia, the Pacific, Oceania, Europe and North
America, participated in the expert workshop. The list of experts and their profiles are
presented as Annex 5.1.
Process
Annex 5.2 provides the programme of work during the workshop.
Opening session
The opening session was held in the afternoon of June 8. The opening speakers were
Prof. Sena de Silva, Director General of NACA and Dr Rohana Subasinghe, Senior
Fishery Resources Officer, FAO Rome.
Presentation highlights
Dr Melba Reantaso (FAO) presented a backgrounder on risk analysis (RA), its various
definitions, its application outside of aquaculture and the drivers for risk analysis in
aquaculture. She presented the main objectives of the current project, which included:
(i) to review the current state of knowledge and understanding on the risks involved
in aquaculture development and management; (ii) to review the application of risk
analysis in aquaculture and (iii) to prepare a technical document that will provide
practical guidance to policy-makers and interested individuals on the use of various
types of risk analysis in aquaculture as a useful decision-making tool for the sustainable
development of the sector. She emphasized the need to demystify the whole process
and produce a ‘simple and crisp’ technical document.
Dr J. Richard Arthur (FAO Consultant) examined the definitions and nature of

risk, with a focus on the nature of hazards. He examined the different components
of risk analysis and emphasized the need to factor in uncertainty. He then provided
a series of general principles to risk analysis, including the use of common sense,
precaution, transparency, consistency, stakeholder consultation, stringency, minimal
risk management, unacceptable risk and equivalence.
Dr Iddya Karunasagar (FAO) emphasized that FAO is recommending the food chain
approach that encompasses all sectors from primary production to final consumption,
with emphasis on preventive steps. Risk analysis is an important tool to determine
the level of risk against often statutorily accepted thresholds for food safety. Risk
analysis has three components, namely: (i) (quantitative) risk assessment, (ii) risk
communication and (iii) risk management. Food safety RA has four specific steps:
(i) hazard identification, (ii) exposure analysis, (iii) dose-response analysis and (iv)
risk characterization. He then looked at the different levels of risk assessment, e.g.
qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative risk assessment.
Dr Melba Reantaso (FAO) considered what a pathogen RA is, the drivers and principle
components of a pathogen RA. She went through the different steps in risk analysis in
some detail. She also looked at other issues, including pathway analysis and scenario
diagrams, the principles of acceptable level of risk (ALOR) and appropriate level of
protection (ALOP), the precautionary principle (cautious interim measures) and future
challenges and opportunities (especially the high levels of uncertainty involved). She
presented the OIE approach to risk analysis. She concluded that despite the best risk
analysis and risk mitigation measures, serious pathogens will be introduced and cause
major disease problems. This is due to limitations in diagnostic techniques, existence of
cryptic pathogens, and the ability of “benign organisms” (normally non-pathogenic) to
become pathogenic when introduced to new hosts and environments. Therefore, good
disease surveillance, reporting and well- designed emergency plans will be necessary.
Disease is considered a risk sector with high uncertainty. Especially in developing
countries, where there is a general lack of basic knowledge on the ecology and pathogens
of aquatic animals, it is necessary to establish appropriate research capacity and to conduct
targeted studies and particularly, research that will support aquaculture biosecurity.
Dr Eric Hallerman (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) started

looking at scoping of risk analysis, the processes of harm (consequence) and hazard
identification, various likelihood assessments (release, exposure and harm resulting
from exposure). He then looked at risk management (focusing on confinement and
operational management), risk communication and future challenges (e.g. understanding
of some fundamental issues, incompleteness of quantitative risk assessment, especially
regarding likelihood of harm given exposure to hazard, etc.). In closing, he identified
the following future challenges in dealing with genetic issues in aquaculture. On risk
assessment, there is a need for more genetic risk analysis case studies, especially in the
aquaculture context; better understanding of the fundamental issues (e.g. likelihood
of outbreeding depression, fitness of transgenics) and development of quantitative
risk assessment methodologies. On risk management, there is a need to develop and
demonstrate cost-effective confinement for small aquaculture operations. Since most
of the theories on risk analysis are already established, what is needed now is to apply
it. The adaptive management framework would be appropriate in most cases, not only
for genetic risk issues. Communication of risk analysis principles and application is
needed, as well as capacity building, especially in the public sector.
Dr Kenneth Leung and Dr David Dudgeon (University of Hong Kong) presented the
guidelines on Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) by the US Environmental Protection
Agency and proceeded with listing the seventh ecological risk associated with
aquaculture activities, i.e. introduction of exotic species; the other six include habitat
alteration/destruction, organic pollution and eutrophication, chemical contamination,
infection with disease organisms, genetic risks of escaped cultured animals and depletion
of wild fish stocks to provide food for cultured carnivorous fish. He emphasized the
importance of understanding the processes of introduction, establishment and spread
of an exotic species in aquaculture industries before beginning risk analysis. Future
challenges include conducting biological and ecological studies on new cultured
species; making risk assessment of biological invasion a legally binding procedure in
aquaculture industries and improving international network and surveillance systems
for the prevention and control of invasive aquatic species through aquaculture. The
presentation was concluded with a note that aquaculture activities are important
pathways for the introduction of exotic aquatic organisms. Implementing risk
assessment before introduction will reduce the invasion risk and minimize ecological/
economic impacts. More effort and funding should be channelled towards basic
biological and ecological research, better biological invasion information systems and
education of both consumers and industries.
Dr Michael Phillips (NACA) presented three major points, namely: the purpose
of environmental risk analysis for aquaculture, its applications and environmental
issues. Many environmental hazards overlap with those considered by other papers;
the challenge therefore is to integrate these overlaps and complementarities into the
manual. Environmental interactions in aquaculture include impacts of environment on
aquaculture, impacts of aquaculture on the environment and impacts of aquaculture
on aquaculture. Impacts can both be positive and negative; aquaculture heavily
relies on a healthy aquatic environment. If broadly applied, risk analysis can support
sector development. He then presented the eight principles for responsible shrimp
farming (i.e. farm siting, farm design, water use, broodstock and postlarvae, feed
management, heath management, food safety and social responsibility). With regard
to risk communication, he noted that the most important issues are: ownership,
building trust, stakeholder knowledge and priorities, transparency, dealing with “grey
areas” and acceptable levels of change, clear communication of results to users for
decision making and implementation; and lastly, the risk analysis “jargon” as a major
communication concern. The presentation was concluded by listing a number of

implementation challenges, e.g. uncertainties – the lack of science-based information
for many aquaculture systems, widely scattered data, large number of small-scale
farmers, the need for cost effective systems for risk analysis, the need for skilled people
and resources for doing risk analysis, communications, institutional responsibilities
and implementation of management measures.
Dr Rohana Subasinghe (FAO) gave the background to the IMO/FAO/UNESCO-

IOC/WMO/IAEA/UN/UNEP/UNIDO Joint Group of Experts on Scientific Aspects
of Marine Environmental Protection or GESAMP. GESAMP is an advisory body
consisting of specialized experts nominated by Sponsoring Agencies; it establishes
Working Groups that are tasked to review given issues and themes. Working Group
31 looks at the environmental impact of coastal aquaculture. He described the
ongoing work of GESAMP Working Group 31, which is developing an integrated
risk assessment/communication protocol that fits within a risk analysis structure for
resource management. He then briefly enumerated the six case studies, drawn from
temperate and tropical coastal aquaculture activities concerned with salmon, shrimp
and bivalve culture, which were developed to illustrate the use of the risk assessment
protocol. The case studies were: (i) fish farming effects on benthic community changes
due to sedimentation; (ii) risk assessment of the potential decrease of carrying capacity
by shellfish farming; (iii) risk analysis of the potential interbreeding of wild and
escaped farmed cod; (iv) risk analysis of the decline of laminariales due to fish farming
waste; (v) risk analysis of the soil salinization due to low-salinity shrimp farming in
central plain of Thailand; and (vi) risk analysis of coastal aquaculture: potential effects
on algal blooms.
Dr Marnie Campbell (co-authored with Dr Chad Hewitt, both of the National Center
for Marine and Coastal Conservation, Australian Maritime College) in her presentation
on Introduced Marine Species Risk Analysis – Aquaculture, explained the term marine
biosecurity, which deals specifically with marine introduced species (includes animals,
pathogens and diseases, plants and protests) and pre-border (quarantine and import
health standards) and post-border (surveillance, monitoring and incursion response)
measures. The basic risk analysis framework includes identifying the endpoint(s),
identifying the hazards, determining the likelihood, determining the consequences and
calculating the risk. In the risk analysis process, the following core values need to be
included: environmental, economic, social and cultural values. The presentation was
concluded with a note that: (i) the marine biosecurity risk framework is consistent
with international standards; (ii) because of significant data limitations in the marine
environment, semi-quantitative and qualitative assessments remain more tractable;
(iii) the target species Organism Impact Assessment has proven extremely useful in
identifying management options, even following an incursion event, however, the
ability to predict which species will invade or the potential impact of a species once it
is introduced remains poor and (iv) the use of non-native food stocks as live, fresh or
frozen material represents the ‘silent sleeper’ of aquaculture-related invasions.
On behalf of Mr Colin Nash (NOAA), Mr Phillip A.D. Secretan briefly presented

NOAA’s Guidelines for the Ecological Risk Assessment of Marine Fish Aquaculture.
He explained the purpose of the paper, which was to exemplify a basic set of guidelines
for risk managers and other decision-makers to use all information available to
assess the different ecological risks of marine fish aquaculture in a variety of marine
ecosystems. He then presented the ten areas of substantive risk in the interaction
between marine fish aquaculture perceived by the public and public administrators to
be of most concern. These are: increased organic loading, increased inorganic loading,
residual heavy metals, transmission of disease organisms, residual therapeutants,

biological interaction of escapes with wild populations, physical interaction with
marine wildlife, physical impact on marine habitat, using wild juveniles for grow-out,
and harvesting industrial fisheries for aqua-feeds. Three examples were presented (i.e.
increased organic loading, transmission of disease organisms, biological interaction
of escapees) for their degree of potential adversity, together with its mitigation, in an
identical step-by-step process. A flowchart helps identify the biological end points or
entities and their attributes, both locally and far field, that might be affected for that
respective area of risk. It also identifies appropriate methodologies that can be used for
measuring or monitoring the effects of exposure to each specific risk.
Dr Lotus Kam and Dr Pingsun Leung (University of Hawaii), in a joint paper

entitled Financial Risk Analysis in Aquaculture, introduced the topic by saying that
in aquaculture, financial risk refers to the potential loss associated with an aquaculture
investment. Aquaculture investments may be public or private and made on behalf of
stakeholders, including individual farmers, shareholders, farm enterprises, financial
institutions, and/or government institutions. Two types of sources of financial hazards,
i.e. production uncertainty (e.g. environment/weather, equipment failure, disease
outbreak, pest infestation, etc.). and market uncertainty (e.g. price, demand, availability
of input, etc.) were presented. Financial risk analysis methods were compared with
the standard components of a risk analysis (hazard identification, risk assessment, risk
management and risk communication). She emphasized that methodologically, the
linkage between financial risk and traditional risk analysis is weak. While many studies
and techniques are available to analyze financial risk in aquaculture, the methods are
not necessarily linked to the traditional components of a risk assessment. While the
structure presented in this paper is not commonly used in assessing financial risk
in aquaculture, it highlights the relationship between financial risk and biological,
ecological, and environmental hazards in aquaculture. The presentation was concluded
with a remark that financial risk analysis relies on financial analysis principles; utilizes
the release and exposure methods for other disciplines; incorporates financial, economic
and socio-economic criteria; considers farm-level, industry-level and regional impacts
and mature quantitative evaluation methods; and integrates analytic methods into
commercial software packages.
Mr Pedro Bueno (NACA) started his presentation on “Social Risks in Aquaculture”

with an adapted definition that social risks in aquaculture are challenges by society
to the practices of the sector, industry, company or farm over the perceived or real
impacts of these practices on issues related to human welfare (e.g. working conditions,
environmental quality, health or economic opportunity) and the consequences,
which may include brand and reputation damage, heightened regulatory pressure,
legal action, consumer boycotts and operational stoppages – jeopardizing short- and
long-term shareholder value. Such a definition of social risk can be suitably adapted
at the sector, industry, company, farmer group or individual farm level. He then
proceeded with elaborating on the components of social risks, i.e. issues, stakeholders,
perceptions and means. He defined aquaculture’s spheres of social responsibility
(internal, immediate external, global) and identified the stakeholders to which it has to
be responsible. From, codes of conduct, codes of practice, ecolabeling and certification
schemes, labour standards, food safety standards and environmental standards, he drew
up a list of hazards that could turn into social risks. Borrowing from ecological risk
assessment, he illustrated the process of social risk estimation, the practical application
of which is to predict the types of challenges and their degrees of severity so that an
early and cost-effective response can be devised to address them. He emphasized that
the difference between social and other risks is that social risks are strategic risks. The
presentation was concluded with the proposition that a social risk-free environment
that is predicated on socially responsible behaviour promotes sustained growth and
development.
Mr Phillip A.D. Secretan (AUMS Limited, Aquaculture Underwriting and

Management Services) provided an overview of the insurance risk analysis in
aquaculture that focussed on stock insurance. An underwriter’s approach to risk
analysis is not scientific and very arbitrary, He emphasized an important factor
to bear in mind, i.e. insurers use substantial deductibles of 10, 15, 20 and even 30
percent (in some cases) of the total amount of risk. The risk analysis process in
the insurance industry is an ongoing process during a policy’s term because farms,
their surroundings, people and farming processes all change. The analysis process
relies on information obtained through the completion of specially designed pro-
posal forms that have to be completed by applicants seeking insurance. Different
forms are used for different types of aquaculture. Site surveys are essential to risk
assessment at all phases of the insurance process. These are carried out by skilled
surveyors, each of whom is experienced in risk assessment appropriate to the type
of operation involved and its component parts. This particularly applies to marine
installations and operations that include electrical and mechanical life support
components. Fish health surveys are also carried out by specialist experts. The
processes involved are professionally applied, thorough, on-going and enforced
through policy conditions. He concluded the presentation by emphasizing that the
end results of insurance are reduced losses, empowered risk profiles, reduction of
financial loss (and thus hardship) and increase in wealth.
Mr N.R. Umesh (MPEDA/NACA) in a presentation on “Risk analysis in aqua-

culture – experiences from small-scale shrimp farmers of India” presented the
outcomes of a project aimed at supporting Indian small-scale shrimp farmers in
adopting better management practices (BMPs) for sustainable fish farming. The
10 BMPs used include: good pond preparation, good quality seed selection, water
quality management, feed management, pond bottom monitoring, health monito-
ring/biosecurity, food safety (no use of antibiotics), better harvest and post-harvest
practices, record keeping/traceability, and environmental awareness. Although
the initial work was not planned to follow a formal risk analysis approach, the
experiences gained provided valuable lessons in the application of risk analysis in
small-scale aquaculture farming. Epidemiological studies lead to the identification
of risk factors (infected seed, stocking at different periods, soil conditions, use of
chemicals etc.), while epidemiological tools measured the statistical associations (=
risk assessment) between the identified hazards and the risks (= bad outcomes).
Risk management constitutes the application of BMPs. Lessons learned included
reduced disease risk, increased profit, increased cooperation among farmers, food
safety, enhanced financial support (through good access to bank credit and insur-
ance), and reduced risks to small farmers livelihoods.
Working group session

Dr Melba B. Reantaso (FAO) presented the guidelines for the working group
discussion, after which the participants were divided into three working groups that
tackled the following themes:
• Working Group 1: Development of the contents of the Manual on Understanding
and Applying Risk Analysis in Aquaculture
• Working Group 2: Identification and grouping of hazard and assessment
methodologies
• Working Group 3: Hazard identification with emphasis on social, financial/

economic and cultural hazards aspects
Two full days were spent on working group discussions and presentations. The
outcomes of the working group discussions are presented in section 3; general and
specific recommendations are presented in section 4.
Closing session
The closing session was held at 1300 hours on 11 June. Representatives of FAO and
NACA thanked the participants and their institutions for an extremely productive
workshop. The spirit that pervaded the exercise was marked by the collective desire
and a strong commitment to accomplish an important and, it was felt, a challenging
task; a large part of the challenge was to produce a practical guide and get it to be
adopted.
Working group findings
Working Group 1: Development of the contents of the Manual on

Understanding and Applying Risk Analysis in Aquaculture
Working Group 1 reviewed the draft concept document for the preparation of a
Manual on Understanding and Applying Risk Analysis in Aquaculture, and in light
of the presentations and associated summary documents commissioned by FAO and
prepared by the various experts, to attempt to develop an integrated approach and
outline for the manual.
Working Group 1 members: Peter Applesford, Cheng Wo Wing, Jason Clay,

Tim Huntington, Iddya Karunasagar, Zorana Mehmedbasic, Philip Secretan, Putt
Songsangjinda and N.R. Umesh
Working Group 1 recommended that the outline of the manual should contain five
major sections (Box 1) the contents of each section are briefly described in Table 1.
Working Group 2: Identification and grouping of hazard categories and risk

assessment methodologies
Working Group 2 considered the “hazard identification” step for the manual. They
were to identify hazards in coastal/marine aquaculture, group them as far as possible
into hazard categories, list/identify methodologies that should be included for
hazard identification, identify inherent similarities and differences between hazard
identification sectors, and time permitting, to start to identify what risk assessment
methodologies/procedures are available for the particular hazards being addressed and
to identify examples of risk assessments that have been conducted.
Working Group 2 members: Richard Arthur, Puttharat Baopraserkul, Ingrid Burgetz,

Marnie Campbell, Jim Chu, Eric Hallerman, Matthias Halwart , Chad Hewitt, Kenneth
Leung, Graham Mair, Sena de Silva, Yin Kedong, C.V. Mohan, Thuy Nguyen, Michael
Phillips, Ben Ponia, Temdoung Somsiri, Rohana Subasinghe, Sanin Tankovic and Varin
Thanasomwang
The Working Group divided itself into four subgroups dealing with (i) pathogens/
disease risks (ii) food safety and public health risks, (iii) genetic risks and (iv)
environmental and ecological risks.
BOX 1
Table of contents of the Manual on Understanding and Applying
Risk Analysis in Aquaculture
Executive Summary
1 Introduction
1.1 Concepts of Risk Analysis
1.2 General Framework of Risk Analysis
1.3 Purpose of the Manual
1.4 Scope of the Document
1.5 Definitions and Terminology
2 Operating Environment
2.1 Overview of Regulatory Frameworks
2.2 Overview of the Key Risk Categories
3 A Risk Analysis Process for Aquaculture
3.1 Hazard Identification
3.2 Risk Assessment
3.3 Risk Management
3.4 Risk Communication
4 Synthesis
5 Next Steps
5.1 Implementation
5.2 Capacity and Knowledge Building Needs
Appendices
Appendix A: References and Bibliography Cited
Appendix B: Risk Analysis Case Studies
Boxes
Box 1. Pathogens: VHS in finfish (or EUS in Botswana)
Box 2. Carbon miles (including fish feeds)
Box 3. Mangrove usage
Box 4. Social
Box 5. Economic
Working Group 2.1 Pathogen/disease risks

Since the procedures for pathogen or import risk analysis are well established (OIE,
2007; Arthur et al., 2004) and there are a number of relevant import risk analysis
materials available (see Bondad-Reantaso and Arthur, this volume), Working Group
2.1 on pathogen/disease risks concentrated on listing actions for minimizing/managing
risks associated with the following: (1) importation of live aquatic animals (import
permitted following a risk analysis), (2) importation of aquatic animal products (import
permitted following a risk analysis), (3) domestic movements of live aquatic animals
and farm-level operations, (4) pathogen risk communication relevant to all of the above
(Table 2) .
Working Group 2.2 Food safety and public health

Working Group 2.2 discussed the three steps in risk assessment for food safety and
public health, i.e. (1) hazard characterization, (2) exposure assessment and (3) risk
characterization; and the risk management framework using the Codex Principles for
Risk Management and provided three examples of food safety and public health risks
related to aquaculture.
(1) Hazard identification. Important considerations in the hazard characterization

step is given in Table 3 below; while Table 4 shows three examples from the aquaculture
sector.
TABLE 1
Suggested contents of the different sections of the Manual
Section title Contents
1. Introduction
1.1. Concepts of risk analysis What is risk?
Why is risk analysis used?
When is risk analysis conducted?
Who typically uses risk analysis (wider than just aquaculture)?
Emphasis on the process being science-based and appropriately precautionary
Relevance to aquaculture
1.2 General framework of risk Introduce the four steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) risk assessment, (3) risk
analysis management and (4) risk communication (cross-cutting)
Provide examples of typical tools used (short and referenced to literature)
Discuss uncertainty and the use of proxies
1.3 Purpose of the manual Users: define target users as decision-makers but should consider regional, national,
corporate and community levels (policy, investment, corporate)
Scale: for use by FAO member countries; should contain both generic as well as
specific information to be useful; the manual should serve as a high-level guiding
document with resources to enable further development and provide guidance on
the use of qualitative and quantitative approaches; need to cover site-specific risks
vs cumulative risks, separately if appropriate
Need to mention that risk analysis if still unknown in many countries, that there are
many unique problems and scales of development occurring at different levels – all
these have implications for the end use of the manual and its contents
1.4 Scope of the document Introduce the seven “risk sectors”
Present the structure of the manual
Provide the boundaries of the manual, i.e. it addresses both the impacts of
aquaculture to the environment (environmental, social and economic) and vice-
versa
Many of the hazards identified will be at the policy level, but will need to
factor these hazards into the operational elements. For example, farm-level risk
assessment will include development of better management practices (BMPs).
1.5 Definitions Important terminologies used in the document
2. Operating Environment
2.1. Overview of the regulatory May include international and regional agreements; statutory frameworks;
frameworks voluntary frameworks (e.g. codes of practice, BMPs, etc.)
Examples:
Pathogen risks (e.g. as elaborated in OIE, SPS Agreement, ISO)
Food safety and public health risks (e.g. Codex, SPS, HACCP, TBTs, GMOs, ISO)
Ecological (pests and invasive species) risks (e.g. CBD, CCRF, SPS, IPPC, WTO)
Genetic risks (GMOs, Cartagena Protocol)
Environmental risks (CCRF, CBD, ISO)
Financial risks (WTO, Codex?)
Social risks (ILO) (e.g. 1st Nations issues)
2.2 Overview of the key risk Pathogen risks, food safety and public health risks, ecological (pests and invasive
categories risks, genetic risks, environmental risks, financial risks and social risks
Examples of national and local constraints (New Zealand Biosecurity Act)
Review of the literature
3. Risk analysis process for Need to separate the risk against the mitigation options; latter need to be selected
aquaculture at an early stage and have to go through a cost-benefit analysis (note – costs might
not be just monetary)
Manual to be based on the four steps to risk analysis of GESAMP as this is still a
reasonably robust approach; there might be slight variations, but this may be also
just terminology issues.
3.1 Hazard identification Environmental, economic, social/cultural hazards (to be informed by WGs 2 and 3)
Prioritization of relevant hazards – need to categorize and aggregate hazards/risks
using a hierarchichal process that will allow screening and methodology decision-
making, mainly focused by data availability and scope requirements
Forward thinking of hazard mitigation (e.g. an environmental hazard may result
in an economic or social consequence; thus includes a time-scale issue (i.e. what
happens now has consequences much later)
To include boxes, e.g.:
Box 1: Pathogens: VHS in finfish (or EUS in Botswana?)
Box 2: Carbon miles (including fish feeds)
Box 3: Mangrove usage
Box 4: Social
Box 5: Economic
Boxes provide a snapshot. They should be short and referenced.
TABLE 1 (continued)
Suggested contents of the different sections of the Manual
3.2. Risk assessment Qualitative, quantitative, scale, uncertainty
Precaution in application (to reflect different perspectives and used in the context
of lack of knowledge)
Use of controls and baseline
3.3 Risk management Prioritization
Need to focus on key issues
3.4 Risk communication Stakeholder engagement and consensus building
General principles
Risk analysis process
Risk assessment
Risk management
Dissemination of results and outcomes
Sectoral stakeholders
External stakeholders (including transboundary responsibilities)
4. Synthesis
5. Next steps Implementation (especially at small-scale level)
Information collection and management
Capacity (knowledge, skills and attitude)-building needs, both in terms of numbers
and skills availability.
Needs to address risk analysis (access to skills and relevant (and often
multidisciplinary) knowledge and on-going risk management (in-house expertise
and capacity) capability.
identification of sources of available knowledge and ability to distribute and share
experience/information/knowledge.
Appendix 1 References
Appendix 2 Risk analysis case studies
(2) Exposure assessment. Exposure assessment is the qualitative and/or quantitative

evaluation of the degree of intake likely to occur. It considers the level of the pathogen/
chemical agent at the time of consumption and the quantity of particular food
consumed. Table 5 below lists the relevant questions to be asked and the sources of
information that may be useful.
Dose response assessment determines the relationship between the magnitude of

exposure and the magnitude and/or frequency of adverse effects.
• Theoretical Maximum Daily Intake (TMDI) is based on the MRLs, and estimates
of commodity intake are made based on a global diet. This calculation is known
to greatly overestimate the exposure and is conducted for screening purposes. If
the TMDI exceeds the ADI, the Estimated Maximum Daily Intake (EMDI) is
calculated based on global and regional diets and may include correction factors
to improve the accuracy of exposure estimates. For example, data on the edible
portion of the food and the fate of residues during processing may be used to
make a more accurate calculation of exposure.
Production to consumption pathway takes into account the relevance and concentration
of the biological agent or the chemical agent. In aquaculture, the various sources of
the biological or chemical agent (e.g. water, sewage contamination, feed, fertilizers,
intermediate hosts (in the case of some parasites) and considered as well as the effects
of various aquaculture practices on the biological or chemical agent (e.g. effect of
sanitizers on pathogens, diatom blooms affecting bacterial pathogens).
(3) Risk characterization. The Codex Alimentarius defines the risk characterization
step as the process of determining the qualitative and/or quantitative estimation,
including attendant uncertainties of the probability of occurrence and the severity of
the known or potential adverse health effect in a given population based on hazard
TABLE 2
List of risk management actions for minimizing risks of pathogens
Importation of live aquatic Importation of fishery National movements and Pathogen/disease risk
animals (import permitted products (import permitted farm-level operations communication
following risk analysis) following risk analysis)
• legislation to support • registering importers; • registering farm facilities; • informing all stakeholders
establishment and (e.g. importers, exporters,
• approving importer • approving farm facilities
operation of quarantine farmers, government)
facilities (e.g. processing (e.g. physical facility,
facilities; about hazards (e.g.
plant, handling facility); sanitary conditions,
diseases listed by the OIE
• registering of importers; biosecurity measures);
• assuring that the and on national disease
• setting up and registering processing facility meets • implementing or lists);
of quarantine facilities hazard analysis critical facilitating record keeping
• following the
(government or private); control point (HACCP) to ensure traceability;
communication channels
or other (e.g. Better
• ensuring that quarantine • ensuring implementation to provide and obtain
Management Practices
facilities meet biosecurity of active surveillance for all the information
(BMP), International
requirements; pathogens listed in OIE required for the purpose
Standards Organization
and national pathogen of conducting risk
• allowing importation (ISO)) requirements;
lists, as appropriate for the analysis and for taking
only with a valid health decisions on national
• ensuring safe and effective cultured species;
certificate issued by the movements (adopting risk
disposal of effluents and
exporting country; • ensuring establishment communication channels
wastes from the importer’s
of mechanisms to gather identified in typical risk
• ensuring that the facility (e.g. processing
disease information from analysis processes (e.g.
imported stock plant);
all culture systems (passive OIE));
(consignment) is held
• allowing importation of surveillance);
in quarantine for the • communicating risk
products only with valid
specified period; • ensuring implementation mitigation measures to
health certificate from the
of better health be adopted to quarantine
• testing stock for World exporting country;
management practices by officers, processing plants,
Organisation for Animal
• conducting random checks the hatcheries and farmers officers dealing with
Health (OIE) listed or
on imported products for (e.g. Good Aquaculture fishery products etc, in
national-listed pathogens,
OIE or nationally listed Practices (GAP), Codes of the event of detection of
as appropriate;
pathogens, as appropriate; Conduct (CoC), BMPs); listed pathogens;
• releasing imported stock
• ensuring implementation • setting up mechanisms • communicating
only to an approved
of appropriate measures (e.g. destruction, farm (extending) better
facility (e.g. a farm);
in the event that samples closure, restrictions on aquatic animal health
• setting up surveillance test positive (e.g. from stock movement) to deal management practices
programmes (active and/ frozen product to cooked with disease outbreaks to farmers (e.g. on
or passive, as appropriate) product); and (active and passive prevention and control
and using the OIE and surveillance); and methods);
• notifying the exporting
national pathogen lists, as
country or OIE, as • following OIE and other • implementing early
appropriate;
appropriate. regional disease reporting warning systems for
• establishing mechanisms mechanisms if the disease communicating risks to
(e.g. stock destruction, in question is listed. farmers, trading partners
farm closure, restrictions etc.; and
on stock movement) to
deal with the pathogen in • implementing notification
the event of its detection systems (e.g. reporting to
during active and passive OIE).
surveillance; and
• notifying the OIE and
following other regional
disease reporting
mechanisms if the disease
in question is listed.
identification, exposure assessment and hazard characterization. Risk assessments may

be:
• qualitative: e.g. low, medium, high.
• quantitative: e.g. number of human illnesses likely to occur due to the biological
or chemical agent per defined number of population.
Risk reduction scenarios include:

• Effect of mitigation steps (e.g. prevention of sewage contamination; treatment of
intake water; growing shellfish in category A water; regulating number of bacteria
in water, shellfish meat etc) on number of cases.
• Number of cases of illness which can be averted?
• Effect on aquaculture (e.g. water treatment costs, use of alternate feeds)?
Assumptions and uncertainties and data gaps must be documented.
TABLE 3
Hazard characterization for food safety and public health risks
Key factors for these hazards
Biological agents Chemical agents
Ecology of the biological agent The chemicals in aquaculture products being
(natural habitat, likely mode of considered include pesticides, polychlorinated
entry into aquaculture systems, biphenyls (PBCs), veterinary drugs and
probability of introduction). contaminants.
Virulence characters of the They are often present in food at low levels –
pathogen. typically at a part per million or less.
Effect of food matrix on However, to obtain adequate sensitivity, animal
the organism at the time of toxicological studies must be conducted at high
consumption (factors of the food, levels that may exceed, depending on the intrinsic
In the hazard e.g. high fat content that may toxicity of the chemical, several thousand parts
characterization step, a protect the organism by providing per million.
qualitative description increased resistance to gastric
is made of the severity The significance that the adverse effects detected
acids).
and the duration of in high-dose animal studies have for low-dose
the adverse health Host susceptibility factors human exposures is the major question posed in
effect that may result (immune-compromised individuals, the hazard characterization of chemicals.
from the ingestion of a pregnant women, AIDs patients).
Estimation of Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake
microorganism, a toxin or Population characteristics. (PTWI) or Provisional Maximum Tolerable Daily
a chemical contaminant. Intake (PMTDI) is made, if possible.
Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) are estimated for
individual pesticides in or on specific commodities.
These MRLs are primarily based on the residue
levels estimated in supervised field trials when the
pesticide is used according to GAP.
Wherever data are available,
a dose response analysis is
performed; data may come from
outbreak investigations, human
volunteer studies, vaccine trial
studies or from animal studies
TABLE 4
Examples of food safety and public health risks from the aquaculture sector
Examples from Characteristics
aquaculture
Vibrio Scientific data adequate for a quantitative risk assessment
parahaemolyticus in MRA conducted by the United Stated Food and Drug Administration (US FDA), FAO/WHO
oysters eaten raw
Management options:
- cooling oysters immediately after harvest to prevent multiplication of V. parahaemolyticus
(consider cost of this process)
- control oyster harvesting based on levels of total V. parahaemolyticus in oysters at the time
of harvest (what proportion of oysters have a high level of V. parahaemolyticus?)
- subjecting oysters to high-pressure treatment
- depuration (not very efficient for V. parahaemolyticus)
- Food safety objective still under discussion (total V. parahaemolyticus 5 000/g?)
Listeria MRA conducted by US FDA, FAO/WHO (ready to eat products)
monocytogenes in Cases of listeriosis occur when foods with more than 106 L. monocytogenes/g are consumed.
smoked salmon
Control L. monocytogenes in smoked fish (100/g)
Zero tolerance not practically achievable in smoked fish industry
Nitrofuran residues in Risk assessment conducted by Food Standards Australia and New Zealand
prawns Exposure (worst-case scenario in high consumers) is 1.5 percent of allowable daily intake (ADI)
that existed earlier
Public health and safety risk from nitrofuran residues in prawns very low
No recalls ordered
With respect to risk management to food safety in aquaculture, the Codex Principles
for Risk Management consisting of 8 principles are listed in Box 2.
Key reference documents pertaining to risk assessment for food safety and public
health include:
• FAO/WHO 1995. Application of risk analysis to food standards issues. Report of
Joint FAO/WHO Expert Consultation. 43 pp.
TABLE 5
Exposure assessment questions and information requirements
Exposure assessment questions Information requirements
How many organisms are sources of contamination: frequency, concentration and an estimation of the
ingested by the consumer? probability and concentration that will be consumed
How often do they get ingested distribution, growth, inhibition or inactivation from primary contamination,
by the consumer? through processing, handling at retail and consumer preparation practices
growth studies, predictive models
food manufacturer data
food surveillance data – primary processes and retail
animal/zoonotic disease data
food composition – pH, Aw, nutrient content, presence of antimicrobial substances
and competing microflora
population demographics
consumption patterns
BOX 2
Codex principles for risk management
Principle 1: Risk management should follow a structured approach.

Risk evaluation,
Risk management option assessment,
Implementation of management decision, and
Monitoring and review.
Principle 2: Protection of human health should be the primary consideration in risk
management decisions.
Principle 3: Risk management decisions and practices should be transparent.
Principle 4: Determination of risk assessment policy should be included as a specific
component of risk management.
Principle 5: Risk management should ensure the scientific integrity of the risk
assessment process by maintaining the functional separation of risk management and risk
assessment.
Principle 6: Risk management decisions should take into account the uncertainty in the
output of the risk assessment.
Principle 7: Risk management should include clear, interactive communication with
consumers and other interested parties in all aspects of the process.
Principle 8: Risk management should be a continuing process that takes into account all
newly generated data in the evaluation and review of risk management decisions.
• FAO/WHO 2002. Principles and guidelines for incorporating microbiological risk

assessment in the development of food safety standards, guidelines and related
texts. 47 pp.
• FAO/WHO 2003. Hazard characterization for pathogens in food and water.
Microbiological Risk Assessment Series No 3, 76 pp.
• Fazil, A. 2005. A primer on risk assessment modelling: focus on seafood products.
FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 462, 62 pp.
Working Group 2.3 Genetic risks in aquaculture

Working Group 2.3 went through the whole process of assessing genetic risks in
aquaculture starting from key questions which need to be asked to identify genetic
hazards (Box 3), a process for prioritizing genetic hazards (Table 6), the risk assessment
BOX 3
Key questions for identifying genetic hazards in aquaculture
What are the hazards?

How do we identify genetic hazards in aquaculture?
What is the process for prioritization of genetic hazards?
What is the risk assessment process?
How do we identify or characterize the consequence of the hazard?
Key questions concerning genetic hazards from cultured organisms:

What is the organism being cultured?
Is it indigenous?
Is it being cultured in an environment with conspecifics or reproductively compatible
species?
Is it genetically changed from local stocks?
Is it a composite of genetically distinct stocks?
Is it selectively bred?
Is it an inter-species hybrid?
Is it a genetically modified organism?
Is it triploid/sterile?
Key questions concerning genetic hazards from wild organisms:

What wild organisms are interacting with the cultured stocks?
Is it a reproductively compatible species?
Is it conspecific?
process using a conceptual approach for conducting assessment of the probability of

gene flow from aquaculture systems into the receiving environment (Table 7), a matrix
for identifying consequences and mechanisms for assessment of that consequence
(Table 8), important considerations for risk management and risk communication, a
case study example (Hallerman, 2008, this volume) and key references (Box 4).
The risk assessment process

Tools for risk assessment have been developed for transgenic fish (see references listed
in Box 4). These can be readily adapted for characterizing the probability of gene flow
from cultured stocks to wild stocks. The approach indicated below Table 8) can apply
for assessing risks identified above that are related to gene flow, with the exception of
the risk associated with the escape/release of sterile triploid organisms, which is related
to loss of reproductive investment rather than gene flow1.
Important considerations with respect to risk management (Table 9) and risk
communication are provided below.
In the case of deliberate release of cultured stocks as part of a stock enhancement
programme, it is necessary to effectively monitor and evaluate the impact of the
stocking programme to ensure it is consistent with its objectives. Such objectives may
include increased population size, yield to fisheries, maintenance of genetic diversity
of the receiving population and fitness of the wild stock. The main risk management
strategy in relation to stock enhancement is to adhere to genetic management guidelines
in the foundation and subsequent maintenance of the hatchery stock.
Monitoring and evaluation would be required under both circumstances (accidental
and deliberate release) to reassess risk likelihoods and severity of consequences. Control
1
A separate conceptual approach can be developed for triploid organisms.
TABLE 6
A process for prioritization of genetic hazards
Hazard component Degree of concern for genetic impacts Genetic consequence
Low Med High
A. From cultured organisms
Indigenous X Loss of adaptation
Outbreeding depression
Decreased Ne
Non-indigenous
Reproductively compatible X Introgressive hybridization
Not reproductively compatible X None
B. From local stock
Domesticated? X Loss of adaptation
Decreased Ne
Selectively bred X Loss of adaptation
Decreased Ne
Interspecific hybrid X Introgressive hybridization
Triploid/sterility X Loss of reproductive investment
GMO X Loss of adaptation
Decreased Ne
Unanticipated effects
C. From non-local stocks
Composite of distinct stocks X Loss of adaptation
Decreased Ne
Selectively bred X X Loss of adaptation
Decreased Ne
Interspecific hybrid X Introgressive hybridization
Triploid/sterility X Loss of reproductive investment
GMO X Loss of adaptation
Decreased Ne
Unanticipated effects
D. From wild organisms (reproductively compatible)
Conspecific1 X Loss of adaptation
Loss of performance
Non-conspecific X Introgressive hybridization
Loss of adaptation
Loss of performance
Non-reproductively compatible X None
1
Level of risk depends on the genetic status of the cultured stocks and the purpose of the operation. Invasion of wild or feral
aquatic organisms into the culture system containing genetically improved stock carries higher risk than for facilities stocked with
non-improved stock. Likewise the risks associated with invasion are higher in hatcheries than they are for grow-out systems.
actions need to be documented and continually assessed. Monitoring indicators need

to be developed (e.g. regular sampling of threatened indigenous stocks for detection
of introgression or stock assessment to determine impacts of releases) and monitoring
implemented. Programme design and implementation may need to be adjusted.
With respect to risk communication concerning genetic risks, the following
considerations are important: (1) actively engaging stakeholders’ to agree on the scope
of the risk analysis, (2) an educational component regarding principles and practices for
evaluating and characterizing genetic hazard and consequences on genetic aspects of a
project, (3) stakeholder agreement on hazards and validation of the prioritization of the
hazards, (4) stakeholder agreement of consequences and validation of risk likelihood
analysis, and (5) agreement on an acceptable level of risk and risk management options
on a case-by-case basis.
BOX 4
Example of case study on a genetic risk analysis and key references
Case study
• Risk analysis for triploid oysters in Chesapeake Bay, United States of
America (see Hallerman, 2008, this volume)
References
• ABRAC (Agricultural Biotechnology Research Advisory Committee)
Working Group on Aquatic Biotechnology and Environmental Safety.
1995. Performance standards for safely conducting research with genetically
modified fish and shellfish. Parts I & II. United States Department of
Agriculture, Office of Agricultural Biotechnology. Document Nos. 95-04
and 95-05. (available at: http://www.isb.vt.edu/perfstands/)
• Kapuscinski, A., Sifa, L. & Hayes, K. eds. In press. Environmental risk
assessment of genetically modified organisms, Vol. 3. Building scientific
capacity for transgenic fish in developing countries. CABI Publishing.
• Mair, G.C., Nam, Y.K. & Solar, I.I. In press. Risk management: reducing
risk through confinement of transgenic fish. In A. Kapuscinski, L. Sifa & K.
Hayes, eds. Environmental risk assessment of genetically modified organisms:
methodologies for transgenic fish. CABI Publishing.
TABLE 7
A conceptual approach for conducting assessment of the probability of gene flow from aquaculture systems
into the receiving environment
Knowledge requirement Action steps to be taken Comments
Baseline data on escapees from Assess the probability of escape If organisms are farmed in open
aquaculture systems of sexually mature and immature aquaculture systems especially in an
organisms from aquaculture systems area where conspecifics live, an option
is to assume escape will occur and
focus assessment resources on next
step.
Baseline data on the habitat Assess the probability that immature If aquatic organisms can escape into
conditions into which farmed fish escaped aquatic organisms would habitat where conspecifics or closely
are likely to escape survive to sexual reproduction in the related species survive and reproduce,
wild an option is to assume some escapees
will survive and focus assessment
resources on the next step.
Baseline data on the population Assess the probability of encounter If cultured organisms can escape
ecology of aquatic organisms in the between sexually mature escapes/ into an area where conspecifics (or
receiving environment releases from aquaculture and reproductively compatible species) are
reproductively compatible wild species known to exist, an option is to assume
encounters will occur and focus
assessment resources on the next step.
Baseline data on the reproductive Assess the probability of successful
behaviour of the species mating occurring between escapes/
releases from aquaculture and
reproductively compatible wild species
Assess the probability of F1 offspring
surviving and successfully reproducing
Assess the probability of survival
and reproduction in the subsequent
generations of introgressed stocks.
Working Group 2.4 Risk assessment process for environment and ecology
Working Group 2.4. looked at the process which can be used for environmental and
ecological risks. The process involves nine steps. This process can be applied for
example to the release of effluent. Intensity, extent, geographical extent, frequency and
duration must be assessed on a case-by-case basis with the particular circumstances
TABLE 8
Table identifying consequences of hazards from cultured organisms (risks from aquaculture) and from wild
organisms (risks to aquaculture) and mechanisms for assessment
Risks from aquaculture Risks to aquaculture
Consequence Description Mechanisms of Consequence of Description Mechanisms of
of hazard from assessment hazard from wild assessment
cultured organism organisms
Loss of Loss of capacity Loss of population Interbreeding and The interbreeding Loss of stock
adaptation of affected stocks structure loss of adaptation of wild fish with purity detected
to adapt to (identified through to culture cultured stocks through
environmental changes in genetic conditions in the culture analysis of
changes/ markers, which are environment, genetic or
challenges used as proxies for resulting in phenotypic
fitness-related loci) the partial loss markers
of adaptation
of the stock
to the culture
environment and/
or the benefits
of genetic
improvement
Outbreeding Loss of Observation of Hybrid The mixing of Loss of species
depression fitness upon reduced fitness introgression of gene pools from purity detected
interbreeding upon interbreeding cultured stocks two or more through
of differently of cultured and species under analysis of
adapted wild stocks culture conditions, genetic or
populations resulting in phenotypic
characteristics of markers
pure species
Decreased Reduction Detected through Of feed species &
effective in number loss of rare hitchhikers
population size of breeding alleles or by
individuals direct estimation
contributing of effective
to the next population size in
generation. Also suitably designed
may result in experiments
increased levels of
inbreeding
Introgressive The mixing of Loss of species
hybridization gene pools from purity detected
two or more through analysis
species, resulting of genetic or
in change of phenotypic
characteristics of markers
pure species.
Loss of The disruption • Reduction in
reproductive of reproduction recruitment
investment in natural stocks characterized
through the through stock
participation assessment
of non-fertile • Reduction
individuals in number
in breeding. of breeding
(especially triploid individuals
sterile males) contributing
to the next
generation;
detected through
loss of rare alleles
• Experimental
verification of
participation of
triploid/sterile in
wild spawning
of the production system and the surrounding environments (including biological

components) being described and assessed in detail. Gaps in the available information
on the surrounding environments and their biological components, trophic interactions
etc. are inevitable. It may not be feasible to address these gaps in full or in part or within
an acceptable time frame. This results in an increase in the uncertainty level for each
determination.
TABLE 9
Important considerations concerning risk management and operations management of genetic risks
Risk management Operations management
Acceptable level of risk needs to be defined on a case- Activities consistent with goal of confinement (e.g. strong
by-case basis by consequence and informed by expert record keeping)
opinion and stakeholder consultation. Prevention of unauthorized access
The options for management of risk in relation to Regular inspection and maintenance of physical
escapes from aquaculture are well defined (and confinement systems
published). They are:
Effective supervision of project personnel and
• Physical confinement implementation of policy
- Physical barriers to escape Redundancy of measures is necessary to minimize
- Geographic/physiological (e.g. tropical species in a probability of escape into the receiving environment
temperate environment)
• Biological confinement
- Triploidy/sterility
- Monosex
• GURT (Genetic Use Restriction Technologies – currently
only at R&D stage)
The steps involved in the process are:

1. Risk is derived from likelihood x consequence.
2. Once hazards are identified (hazard identification process for environment/
ecology issues) the risk assessment process begins (Stage II).
3. Identify likelihood using Table 10. Ask questions such as “is it likely that
this farm will release effluent?” – this will determine the level/descriptor of
likelihood. Likelihood may need to be determined from past records, expert
input or through comparison with existing practices. Uncertainty at this stage
should be captured as best possible by considering intensity, frequency and
duration.
4. Develop a basic consequence matrix for the receiving environment (policy/
expert derived; e.g. Table 11). In this example, we are using an endpoint of
disturbance to the surrounding environment from aquaculture practices.
• Terminology within the consequence matrix must be defined and can be
altered to meet stakeholder expectations
• The consequence table must incorporate:
– intensity or degree of change,
– geographical extent, and
– permanence or duration.
• A basic consequence matrix (Table 11) can be presented to focus groups
for threshold values to be determined and the matrix to be refined. This
occurs following a heuristic process involving scientific experts (government,
industry and independent scientists) and stakeholders’ (including indigenes,
government and industry representatives, conservationists, interested public)
working groups.
– The threshold values (percentages and levels within the consequence
matrix representing categorical descriptors, e.g. “significant”) were
derived from legislative and policy obligations in the first instance, with
subsequent adjustment through stakeholder consultation.
TABLE 10
Likelihood matrix
Descriptor Description
1 Rare Event will only occur in exceptional circumstances
2 Unlikely Event could occur but not expected
3 Possible Event could occur
4 Likely Event will probably occur in most circumstances
5 Almost Certain Event is expected to occur in most circumstances
TABLE 11
Consequence example: effluent release from the farm to the surrounding environment
Level Descriptor Effluent release impacts
1 Insignificant Biodiversity change is minimal (<xx%) compared to natural fluctuations in the ecosystem
No significant change in nutrient levels detected
If the effluent was removed, recovery is expected within a diel cycle
2 Minor Biodiversity change is measurable (<xx%) compared to natural fluctuations in the
ecosystem, and is apparent at point source
Minor increase in nutrient levels detected (xx%)
If the effluent was removed, recovery is expected within days
3 Moderate Biodiversity reduction is <xx% compared to natural fluctuations in the ecosystem, and is
apparent at point source and x km downstream
Increase in nutrient levels are detected (>xx%) at x km downstream
If the effluent was removed, recovery is expected in days to months
4 Major Biodiversity reduction is <xx% compared to natural fluctuations in the ecosystem, and at x
km downstream (<yy%).
Eutrification has occurred near point source (>xx%) and nutrient levels are increased (>xx%)
at x km downstream.
If the effluent was removed, recovery is expected in years or generations
5 Catastrophic Biodiversity reduction is <xx% compared to natural fluctuations in the ecosystem, and is
apparent throughout the system
Eutrification has occurred throughout watershed/system
If the effluent was removed, recovery is not expected
– The exact threshold values are subject to adjustment within constraints of

the legal and policy frameworks.
– Thus threshold values are based on consensus opinion and do not
represent a fixed value but rather a perceived consequence at the scale of
assessment (river, farm, region, country, etc).
5. Data collection occurs via literature review, heuristic process or undertaking
monitoring, research etc. The steps for undertaking this analysis are as follows
and can be applied singularly or in combination:
• Undertake a literature review to ascertain available information. If information
is lacking or incomplete, undertake a heuristic process.
• The heuristic process captures input from experts to clarify information/data.
If data are still lacking or incomplete, undertake further research.
• Research can occur via extending existing monitoring or undertaking new
research.
• Data collection will inform the consequence matrix and identify uncertainty.
6. An estimated measure of risk is then derived by multiplying likelihood by
consequence using Table 12.
7. The uncertainty must be determined at each level and data input. The degree
of uncertainty may alter the risk matrix based on the application of the
precautionary principle and stakeholder/expert perceptions and values.
8. Once risk is derived, risk management is applied. For consideration is the
following example of possible approaches following the risk derivation (Table 13).
The likely actions will be dictated by the level of acceptable level of risk (ALOR)
(which is set through risk managers). Reporting will be case-by-case and aligned
with national policies, international obligations, etc., as appropriate.
TABLE 12
Risk matrix (N = negligible; L = low, M = moderate; H = high; E = extreme)
Consequence (impact)
Likelihood event) Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic
Rare N L L M M
Unlikely N L M H H
Possible N L H H E
Likely N M H E E
Almost Certain N M E E E
TABLE 13
Risk interpretation
Risk Likely action Reporting
Negligible Nil -
Low None specific -
Moderate Specified management/science decision/activity required +
High Possible increases to science/management activities required +
Extreme Additional science/management activities required +
Working Group 2 came up with Table 14 listing examples of different risks to aqua-
culture and from aquaculture under the 5 risk categories.
Working Group 2 also raised some issues and questions pertaining to hazard
identification such as: socials risks can have environmental consequences; economic
risks can have environmental and social consequences; social and environmental
risk analysis need to be done early in the process and not after an industry has been
TABLE 14
Examples of different risks to aquaculture and from aquaculture under the five risk categories
Risk sectors Examples
Risks to aquaculture Risks from aquaculture
Pathogen risks pathogens spreading from pathogens spreading from aquaculture to wild
aquaculture to aquaculture stocks
pathogens spreading from wild multiplication of pathogens in wild stocks
stocks to aquaculture
Food safety and public food safety
health risks spreading of zoonotic pathogens to new areas
chemical and drug contamination
heavy metals
biotoxins
Genetic risks impacts of genetic improvement genetics and conservation
programmes trojan gene effects
risks from translocation of stocks loss of reproductive investment
hybrid introgression by mixing or
domestication
genetically modified organisms (GMOs)
genetic changes of wild stocks
Ecological/environmental changing/blocking water circulation/ introduced species
current patterns invasive species
harmful algal blooms feed species
changing risks over time with hitchhiker species
climate change
trophic cascades
risks to stocks during transportation
water quality, turbidity
chemicals
harmful algal blooms
escapees
ecosystem disruptions
genetic introgression
impacts on resident pathogens
hazards to endemic species and/or species
extinctions
impacts on drinking water
solid wastes
watershed usage
impacts of collection of seed from wild
mangrove destruction
alteration of currents/water flow patters
Social and economic risks policy and planning aspects
lack of capacity, information,
education
lack of legislation
food security
aesthetics and tourism
established; how can social and environmental risks be quantified?; how can the
different risk sectors be integrated into one complete risk analysis model?.
Considering the application of risk analysis at the farm level, the Working Group
concluded that:
• risk analysis principles can be applied;
• application of release assessment and exposure assessment may be slightly
difficult;
• risks can be identified and their likelihood assessed using other tools (epidemiological
studies);
• risk can be prioritized;
• risk management measures can be developed around identified risks (better
management measures);
• similar qualitative approach could be used for food safety, genetics and
environmental risk assessments; and
• could be a good model for a research project.
Working Group 3: Hazard identification with emphasis on social, financial/

economic and cultural aspects
Working Group members: Pedro Bueno, Jesper Clausen, Nihad Fejzic, Clayton
Harrington, Lotus Kam, Thithiporn Laopraset, Pingsun Leung, Melba Reantaso,
Susana Siar, Suda Tandavanitj and Montira Thavornyutikarn
Working Group 3 considered the definition of a “hazard” as an agent, event. material

or condition that can cause potential loss or harm. Hazards include challenges by
society to aquaculture practices.
The major outcomes of Working Group 3 include the following:
• free listing of social hazards to better understand the potential scope of hazards in
aquaculture production that has a social dimension (Box 5);
• five major categorization of social-political hazards (Table 15);
• identification of factors which need to be considered when assessing social risks;
• identification of social hazards (Table 16); and
• identification of economic hazards (Table 17).
A number of factors need to be considered when assessing social risks. These include:
(1) governance (e.g. clear property rights, presence of registration and licensing systems,
governance indicators (e.g. using the human development index); (2) level of education
and training (e.g. veterinary services, criteria for each indicator, how to measure
knowledge and training). Social risk assessment methods (for projects) may be used.
Social hazards were identified and divided into 4 major areas as shown in Table 16
below. Cross-cutting issues which affect these broad categories include governance,
political framework, legal framework and globalization.
With respect to social hazards, the Working Group came up with the following
social hazards and examples of issues using four categories (resources, capacity, welfare
and cross-cutting issues) categories (Table 17).
TABLE 15
Five major categorization of socio-political hazards in aquaculture
Category Examples
Governance poor governance, poor policies, unclear property rights, unsustainable
national policies, lack of government support, widespread unemployment
Knowledge, education and low investment in human capital, poor people quality, negative views of
information aquaculture by consumers, lack of general education and training
Competition for resources dislocation of some sectors
Civil unrest/terrorism political/social instability
Globalization
TABLE 16
Social hazards in aquaculture
Social hazard categories Example of issues
Resources access
amenity value
cultural values
competition for use
Capacity labour/skills (of people)
services (institutional – government, private)
infrastructure
adaptation
Welfare policy/regulations/permits (and changes within)
equity
essential resources
Cross-cutting issues governance
political framework
legal framework
globalization
BOX 5
Free listing of social hazards
• bad, poor or weak governance

• lack of knowledge/education/information
• terrorism
• poor policies, governance
• political/social instability
• widespread unemployment
• people quality
• lack of good education
• lack of labour adaptability
• lack of skilled labour
• lack of general education/training
• poor lifestyle/community living
• lack of national plans
• excessive regulation
• no clear property rights
• market functions
• lack of government support
• lack of political democracy
• globalization
• non-sustainable national policies
• negative views of aquaculture by consumers
• increasing population competing for resources
• lack of investment in human capital
• over-regulation
• competition for land, water and space
• infrastructure/industrial development
• dislocation of some sectors in the community
• civil unrest
• lack of formal contractual agreements/business ethics
• physical hazards
• biological hazards
TABLE 17
Economic hazards in aquaculture
Economic hazards Examples
Production threats Cost of production
• cost of labour
• cost of inputs (supplies): decreasing sales prices (prices of outputs); increasing
production costs (prices of inputs); escalating interest rates; creditor instability
Volume/yield
• availability of inputs/services (seedstock low quality or limited availability;
broodstock low quality or limited availability; lack/loss of skilled labour;
limited availability of feed especially in extensive systems)
• equipment/asset failure
• siting
• bioproduction (decreasing growth rates; disease spread)
• detrimental environment weather
Market threats Access
• increasing food standards
• credence, i.e. voluntary standards
Price
• competitors (decreasing market demand)
• taxes
• subsidies
• substitutes
In deliberating on the category of financial risks, the Working Group noted that
there are no financial hazards, but there are financial risks. Examples of economic
hazards include market function, resource use, globalization, production infrastructure,
taxation policy, market access, subsidies, interest rates, exchange rates and non-tariff
barriers. The Working Group identified two major categories of economic hazards as
shown in Table 17.
Conclusions and recommendations

Risk analysis methods as applied in the seven aquaculture sectors considered during
the Expert Workshop have many commonalities but also many differences. An
overriding feature of risk analysis as applied to all sectors is a firm foundation in
drawing upon the results of scientific studies, the use of logic (deductive reasoning)
in the risk assessment process and the application of “common sense” in assessing
risk and applying risk management measures (e.g. separating the “probable” from
the “possible”). General principles that apply to risk analysis for aquaculture include
application of a precautionary approach when dealing with uncertainty, transparency
of process, consistency in methodology, the use of common sense in assessing and
managing risks, the use of stakeholder consultation (particularly when the risk analysis
is undertaken by government), application of a high level of stringency (e.g. through
the use of independent expert review), use of minimal risk management interventions
needed to achieve an acceptable level or risk, the concept of unacceptable risk (and
thus recognition that some “risky” actions cannot be managed and therefore should
not be permitted under any circumstances), and the concept of equivalence (i.e. that
alternate risk management measures achieving the required level of protection are
equally acceptable).
The potential risks from aquaculture development to society and from the existing
physical, social, and economic environment to aquaculture development and their
impacts depend upon the species, culture system and operations management practices,
and other non-technical factors such as human and institutional capacity. For some
sectors, the likelihood of hazards becoming undesirable consequences is often difficult
to quantify given present knowledge and the lack of appropriate tools. The wide range
of hazards related to aquaculture requires a wide range of tools for risk assessment and
skills among the people concerned. The effective use of risk analysis in aquaculture also
requires effective communication among government and industry stakeholders and
explanation of how risk analysis can be effectively applied to help resolve the issues
and avoid possible conflicts.
Most risk analysis sectors make use of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative
methods (the exception being financial risk analysis, which uses only quantitative
methods), depending on the complexity required for decision making. All methods are
equally valid, however, qualitative risk assessment offers the advantages of rapidity and
lower cost, and is applicable in most situations. Risk assessment also typically involves
the use of project formulation, scenario (or probability) tree, diagrams, decision trees,
pathways analysis and sensitivity analysis, an approach that allows investigation of the
impacts of proposed risk management measures on the total risk estimate.
Individual risk sectors have widely differing approaches to the practical application
of risk analysis. These include differences in philosophy, methodology and terminology
that are well established for individual sectors. Sectors dealing with biological and
physical hazards (e.g. pathogen risk analysis, genetic risk analysis, food safety risk
analysis, ecological risk analysis and environmental risk analysis) have more similarities
in approach with each other than they do to risk analysis as applied to social and
financial risks. Never the less, they have significant differences in framework and
terminology. An example is the use of the precautionary approach, which in ecological
risk assessments of non-native species is employed by assuming that the species is
“guilty until proven innocent” (assumption of harm), while in contrast, in pathogen
risk analysis the species being imported is assumed to be “innocent” of potential to
transmit serious disease until proven “guilty”.
The process used to determine “acceptable risk” also varies among sectors. In
some sectors this is clearly established by international standards enforced through
government regulation (e.g. a Food Safety Objective for food products) or through a
statement of national Appropriate Level of Protection, as is often the case in pathogen
risk analysis. In other sectors (e.g. genetic, ecological, social and economic risk analysis)
acceptable risk is often not fixed in advance and must be determined on a case by case
basis by executive decision or general consensus (e.g. via agreement resulting from
stakeholder consultation).
The application of a single risk analysis framework (e.g. that for pathogen risk
analysis) across all sectors is neither possible nor desirable. It is more important that
governments and the private sector give full consideration to possible risks in all
these areas when considering proposals for aquaculture development (e.g. within the
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process). However, in general, this will involve
a more in-depth and rigorous risk analysis process than that currently demanded by EIA
protocols and existing international guidelines (e.g. ICES and EIFAC protocols).
Establishing appropriate national expertise and capacity to undertake risk analysis
has become essential to meeting international trading standards and in allowing
developing countries to obtain access to international markets. The Expert Workshop
concluded that developing countries face many challenges in implementing risk
analysis for the aquaculture sector.
New approaches are required to address the needs of developing countries. There
are many opportunities for developing countries to obtain assistance in building
expertise and capacity. These include bilateral programmes and assistance provided
by WTO, FAO, OIE and national donor agencies, and regional agreements and
programmes conducted by FAO, ASEAN and NACA, among others. The use of
regional approaches that combine national expertise with the risk analysis expertise
available in neighbouring countries may be the most cost-effective way for many
countries to conduct risk analyses involving common and shared aquatic species. This
approach will also involve sharing of databases and other sources of information.
Particularly for introductions of exotic species into shared waterways, the sharing of
risk analysis approaches and associated costs will be a practical action.
It is becoming increasingly recognized by government, private sector and the general

public that “risky” practices in aquaculture development have led to major biological,
social and economic impacts that have had long lasting negative impacts at the local,
national and international levels. Risks in aquaculture need to carefully assessed and
overly risky practices must be mitigated or prohibited in order for aquaculture to
develop in a sustainable manner.
Application of the risk analysis process at the farm level is a challenging issue. In
general terms, the risk analysis principles can be applied, risks can be identified and
their likelihood assessed using, for example, epidemiological tools (for pathogen risks);
however, the application of release assessment and exposure assessment may be slightly
difficult. Risk management at the farm level can be developed around identified risks
and can make use of better management practices (BMPs). BMPs, cluster management
and the use of aquaclubs (or farmer societies) are promising approaches that will enable
farmers to work together to identify and manage their own risks.
Specific recommendations arising from the seven risk sector papers presented during
the Expert Workshop include:
For pathogen risk analysis

• Regional efforts should be made by developing countries to establish hatcheries
and stocks with known health history, e.g. specific pathogen free (SPF) stocks, for
the most frequently traded species (e.g. tilapia, marine shrimp, giant freshwater
prawn, oysters).
• Greater attention should be given to generating information and knowledge
essential to pathogen risk analysis.
• Appropriate research capacity and the ability to conduct targeted studies needed
to address critical information gaps identified during sensitivity testing must be
further developed.
• Studies in essential research areas such as the biological pathways for the
introduction, establishment and spread of individual pathogens and information
on trade are needed.
• For newly emerging diseases as well as some diseases in poorly studied
aquatic animal species, basic studies on pathology and methods for rapid and
accurate diagnosis are needed to facilitate accurate risk assessment and risk
management.
• Increased surveillance of wild fish is needed to detect significant disease problems
at an early stage.
• Improved disease reporting and well-designed contingency plans are also
necessary.
For food safety and public health risk analysis

• The ability to undertake food safety risk analysis is essential to protect public
health and promote international trade in food products, including products of
aquaculture. For this sector, expertise in different fields such as food production
(aquaculture), microbiology, epidemiology, food-processing technology and
statistics is needed.
• Access to appropriate human and financial resources can be one of the major
constraints for developing countries and thus needs to be addressed.
For genetic risk analysis

• Opportunities for informative case studies have been lost because of a lack of
baseline data or because population monitoring was not begun until after a genetic
harm was realized. Baseline data and case studies are thus needed to support
genetic risk assessment.
• As background information useful as case study material is scattered across the

scientific and grey literature and is not as well developed for aquaculture as for
fisheries management, there is a need to identify and synthesize this literature.
• An understanding of some key issues (e.g. likelihood of outbreeding depression and
fitness of transgenic fishes) is still emerging and thus further studies are needed.
• Studies to address the lack of knowledge of long-term impacts of genetic changes,
the levels of variation needed to maintain viable populations over the long term
and the relative risks posed by different classes of genetically modified aquaculture
stocks are needed.
• Development of quantitative genetic risk analysis is very incomplete, especially
with regard to estimating the likelihood of harm becoming realized given exposure
to a hazardous agent.
• All these observations suggest the need for more genetic risk analysis studies,
especially for nonsalmonid systems.
• For better management of genetic risks, more effort should be directed to
developing and demonstrating cost-effective confinement systems for small
aquaculture operations.
• To improve oversight of aquaculture by governments and non-governmental
organizations, risk analysts need to apply the theory of genetic risk analysis, while
drawing upon definitive case studies for guidance.
• As experience is gained, an adaptive approach to management of aquaculture
systems is needed, not only for genetic risks, but also more generally for other
types of risks.
• Effective communication of the principles and application of genetic risk analysis
to organizations in both developed and developing countries is needed.
• There is a need for capacity-building in oversight bodies, especially in the public
sector.
For ecological (pests and marine invasives) risk analysis
for pest risks

• Because anthropogenically driven deterioration of environmental conditions
in aquatic systems can make conditions less congenial to native species and
consequently favour exotic, robust species, risk assessors should take both ongoing
and projected environmental changes and the ecological risk of introducing exotic
species into account.
• The implementation of proper risk assessment schemes for screening the
potential invasiveness of aquatic organisms before introduction will reduce the
risk of importing invasive species and thereby minimize ecological and economic
impacts. Qualitative assessment methods that are easy to use and do not require
large amounts of resources or expertise can be readily adopted in Asia, which is
the global centre of aquaculture production.
• The assessment method can be further developed and enhanced with advanced
quantitative methods, if more relevant biological information on the taxonomic
group of concern is available.
• As data and information availability has a huge influence on the quality and
confidence of the risk assessment, more effort and funding must be dedicated to
basic research on the life histories, population dynamics and ecology of cultured
organisms.
• Better regional and international biological invasion information systems need to
be established.
• Concerted efforts should be made to educate consumers and the private sector
about the ecological risks and economic impacts of introducing invasive organisms,
and to establish mandatory application of legally binding species-specific risk

assessments and risk management that will reduce the risks of biological invasion
through aquaculture activities.
• More basic biological and ecological studies on new farming species (such as
sea cucucmbers, sea urchins and sea squirts) in related to the predicted invasive
sequence are needed.
• More efforts should be put into the development of economic instruments to give
incentives to the aquaculture industry to follow relevant codes of practice and risk
assessment protocols.
for marine invasive risks

• Target species Organism Impact Assessments are extremely useful in identifying
management options; however, the ability to predict which species will invade or
the potential impact of a species once it is introduced remains poor.
• Non-native food stocks such as live, fresh or fresh-frozen material may be the
“silent sleeper” of aquaculture-associated invasions and can also represent a
poorly managed pathway for pathogen invasion that can affect both cultured and
wild stocks; thus risk analysis can be usefully applied to assessing the risks posed
by these food stocks.
For environmental risk analysis

• As there are presently limited experiences and case studies associated with the
more complex ecological risk analyses as applied to aquaculture, promotion of
case studies and sharing of experiences are needed.
• The information on risk analysis that could be applied to aquaculture is scattered
across the literature, from peer reviewed articles to the grey literature. A practical
manual would be useful to assist risk analysis practitioners in the sector and to
raise awareness on useful applications.
• The understanding of some key issues (e.g. risks associated with aquaculture
and ecosystem functions, use of trash fish) is still limited. As far as possible,
simple tools should be developed for the different hazards associated with
aquaculture.
• A major challenge is to apply practical risk analysis methods to the small-scale
aquaculture sector. The need to develop and demonstrate cost-effective risk
management systems for small aquaculture operations is apparent.
• Capacity-building in all aspects of environmental risk analysis for aquaculture is
needed.
• Risk analysis has a potentially important role in policy setting, but to be successful
the institutional roles and responsibilities need to be carefully considered.
For financial risk analysis

• Aquaculture ventures are inherently risky and thus the need to conduct financial
risk analyses to reduce the potential for financial loss is clear. Although a variety
of rigorous methods for financial risk analysis are available, these need to be more
widely put in practice.
• Education, software accessibility, training and assistance are needed in order for
financial risk analysis to be widely adopted in aquaculture.
• Even if the financial risk problem is decomposed, sufficient data may not be
available to estimate uncertainty and characterize the financial risk. Farm-level
cost and production data and industry statistics are often difficult to obtain. In
particular, aquaculture production data are not regularly collected in surveys
conducted by agricultural ministries or are limited to highly aggregated values.
Consequently, risk analysts are obliged to seek secondary or anecdotal information
to approximate the release, exposure and consequences associated with a hazard.

There is therefore a need to improve collection and accessibility of financial data.
• It is vital that financial risk analysis methods be integrated in the early phases
of hazard identification and risk assessment of traditional risk assessment
methodologies in order to truly manage financial risk in aquaculture.
For social risk analysis

• If an industry, farm or sector as a whole adheres to socially responsible practices,
it should face very little challenge, and none that is serious. The need therefore is
to enable the farmers, processors, traders, input suppliers and others in the chain
to adopt the codes of practice, adhere to better management practices and comply
with regulations.
• To prevent free-riding, rent-seeking, corruption and other opportunistic behaviours
that invite challenges to the sector, there is a need to improve governance
mechanisms, particularly the effectiveness of various mechanisms of governance
(mandatory, market-based and voluntary) instruments.
• There is a need to improve the ability of farmers to comply with an increasing
number and stringency of requirements without jeopardizing their profitability;
the challenge is for farmers to see as sensible to business to adopt and comply with
all these requirements.
• There is a need to seek ways to make it attractive for insurers to insure aquaculture
operations (particularly the numerous small farms).
• There is a need to develop a hybrid insurance approach that combines the market-
oriented and social (public) insurance schemes.
• There is a need to establish a better system for micro-financing.
• There is a need to organize farmers, promote adoption of better practices and
strengthen national farmer servicing systems that cater to small farmers.
• There is a need to assure the aquaculture sector that a social risk-free environment
predicated on socially responsible behaviour will translate into sustained growth
and development.
Annexes
Annex 1
Experts and expert profiles
Name and contact details Expertise/specialization
Peter Appleford Extensive experience in fisheries and aquaculture regulation,

Executive Director Fisheries Victoria management, research and education. Fisheries Victoria
Department of Primary Industries administers the Fisheries Act 1995 (the Act) which provides for
GPO Box 4440, Melbourne, Victoria, the management, development and use of Victoria’s fisheries
Australia 3001 and aquatic biological resources in an efficient, effective and
Tel. No.: (61-3) 9658 4360 ecologically sustainable manner. This includes a requirement
Fax No.: (61-3) 9658 4203 to protect and conserve fisheries resources, habitats and
E-mail: [email protected] ecosystems, including the maintenance of ecology and genetic
diversity. The Act also provides for industry development
with a commitment to promote sustainable commercial fishing
and viable aquaculture industries. More specifically, Fisheries
Victoria leads State Government policy implementation to
expand marine aquaculture, including the provision of more that
1 700 hectares of Crown land (offshore and land-based coastal)
for the purpose of marine aquaculture development. In addition
the DPI undertakes applied research, stakeholder consultation,
policy development, the development of Biosecurity Codes,
development of best practice aquaculture management plans, and
the development of disease response structures and protocols for
aquaculture. DPI’s management response to a recent outbreak of
abalone viral ganglioneuritis provides a case study of international
significance particularly in the absence of definitive scientific
information about the infectious organism and significant socio-
economic loss to key industry stakeholders.
Richard Arthur Private consultant in international aquatic animal health issues

FAO Consultant based in western Canada. Career includes periods in Asia with
Box 1216, Barriere IDRC as Fish Health Network Coordinator and as Fisheries
British Columbia, Canada V0E 1E0 Program Officer (Asia and Pacific), and in Canada, as a research
Tel. No.: (1-250) 672 0221 scientist in aquatic parasitology with the Canadian DFO. Over
E-mail: [email protected] the past 20 years, international experience has been primarily in
Asia, but also in projects in Africa, Latin America, Eastern Europe
and the South Pacific. During the past five years contracted as an
expert in pathogen risk analysis for regional projects and short-
term training courses funded by FAO, NACA, APEC and others.
In 2004, led a team of five scientists who conducted pathogen and
pest risk analyses for live crustaceans on behalf of the Secretariat
of the Pacific Community. Lead author on a manual on risk
analysis for the safe movement of aquatic animals and recently
drafted the Technical Guidelines on Health Management for the
Movement of Live Aquatic Animals, in support of FAO’s CCRF.
In 2007, completed an assignment as international consultant in
aquatic animal health management for the World Fish Center as
part of an Asian Development Bank funded project to create a
pro-poor national strategy for aquaculture development for the
Philippines. Currently contributing risk analysis expertise to an
FAO-funded project to develop a national aquatic animal health
strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Puttharat Baoprasertkul Fishery Biologist at Thailand’s Department of Fisheries.

Fisheries Biologist Experience in genetic manipulation techniques (gynogenesis
Inland Aquatic Animal Health Research and sex reversal), molecular genetics and immunogenetics,
Institute particularly genes related to innate immune defenses and their
Department of Fisheries expressions. Currently involved in biosecurity project and
Kasetsart University Campus, Ladyao, selective breeding program for giant freshwater prawn, and
Jatujak genetic diversity of aquatic plants.
Tel. No.: (66-2) 579 4122
Fax No.: (66-2) 561 3993
Pedro Bueno Currently Adviser to NACA, previously Director General
Adviser and before that Information Specialist of NACA and the
Network of Aquaculture Centres in Regional Seafarming Development Project. Taught Development
Asia-Pacific (NACA) Communications courses in the University of the Philippines and
Suraswadi Bldg, Department of was assistant scientist conducting training and research on farming
Fisheries systems at the International Rice Research Institute. Did research
Kasetsart University Campus on diffusion of innovations, worked on rural development
Ladyao, Jatujak projects specializing on the use of various communications
Bangkok 10900, Thailand media to inform target audiences of the advantages and risks
Tel. No.: (66-2) 561 1728 to 9 of adopting innovations in agriculture as well as aquaculture.
Fax No.: (66-2) 561 1727 Helped conceptualize and establish a network of rural
E-mail: [email protected] educational radio stations in the Philippines based in agricultural
universities. Undertook special training in agricultural project
development, evaluation and management. Worked in various
rural development, information and extension, and institutional
development projects for UNESCO, UNDP, FAO, World Bank
and UNOPS.
Ingrid Burgetz National Analyst for Aquatic Biotechnology for Fisheries and
Senior Advisor Aquatic Biotechnology Oceans Canada (DFO). Manages the federal Fisheries and Oceans
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Aquatic Biotechnology and Genomics Research and Development
12W114-200 Kent Street Program. This includes research focusing on regulatory research
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E6, Canada related to aquatic animals with novel traits, environmental risk
Tel. No.: (1-613) 990 5260 assessment methodology research, investigation of the interaction
Fax No.: (1-613) 993 7665 between genotype and environment, and ecosystem effects of
E-mail: [email protected] aquatic animals with novel traits, including transgenic aquatic
animals. Involved, in conjunction with scientific specialists
and regulators, in the identification of key gaps in scientific
knowledge related to regulatory research and aquatic products
of biotechnology. Prior to moving to DFO in 2006, Ingrid
was a senior analyst of technology developments related to the
regulatory system responsible for environmental risk assessment
of novel plants, vaccines and microbial fertilizer supplements.
Marnie Campbell An expert in marine biosecurity and ecosystem restoration, with

Senior Lecturer, Australian Maritime more than 85 publications on various aspects of marine ecology,
College risk analysis, effects of fishing on the marine environment,
National Centre for Marine and Coastal ecosystem restoration and biosecurity management. Has given
Conservation invited keynote and plenary presentations and been an invited
Private Mailbag 10, Rosebud panel member at more than 12 international fora. Marnie has
Victoria 3939, Australia worked in more than 14 countries as a biosecurity researcher
Tel .No.: (61-3) 6335 4571 with agencies such as CSIRO-CRIMP, the IMO GloBallast
Fax No.: (61-3) 6335 4590 Programme, Biosecurity New Zealand and with the Australian
E-mail: [email protected] Maritime College. Currently a senior lecturer and course
coordinator for the National Centre for Marine and Coastal
Conservation, Australian Maritime College. Co-founding
member of the International Marine Biosecurity Education and
Research Consortium, which provides biosecurity education
and training opportunities across the Pacific Basin and Indian
Ocean. Research interests have focused on elucidating human-
mediated impacts on biodiversity in the marine environment and
developing remediation and management options. Her career
has maintained a balance between active science research and the
interface with management/policy.
Jim Chu Fisheries Officer of Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation
Head of Licensing and Enforcement Department, China, Hong Kong SAR. Head of Fisheries
Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Licensing and Enforcement. Expertise in marine finfish culture.
Department Has been working on developing Good Aquaculture Practices
China, Hong Kong Special and fish farm accreditation system. Currently involved in
Administrative Region formulation of food safety management framework in China,
8/F, Cheung Sha Wan Government Hong Kong SAR.
Offices
303 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Kowloon,
Hong Kong
Tel. No.: (852) 2150 7107
Fax No.: (852) 2314 2866
E-mail: [email protected]
Jason Clay An anthropologist by training, has taught at Harvard, worked in
VP, Markets & Managing Director, the US Department of Agriculture, and spent more than 20 years
Agriculture working with human rights and environmental NGOs. Has
World Wildlife Fund undertaken extensive research on the social and environmental
Washington DC, United States of impacts of shrimp aquaculture, and in 1999 created the Shrimp
America 20016 Aquaculture and the Environment Consortium that includes the
Tel .No.: (1-202) 778 9619 WWF, World Bank, FAO and NACA, to identify and analyze
Fax No.: (1-202) 822 3474 better management practices that address the environmental and
E-mail: [email protected] social impacts of shrimp aquaculture. Studied anthropology and
Latin American studies at Harvard University, economics and
geography at the London School of Economics, and anthropology
and international agriculture at Cornell University where he
received his Ph.D. in 1979. Author or co-author of 12 books
(the most recent being Global Agriculture and the Environment,
Island Press 11/03), and more than 300 articles. Has given
numerous invited lectures and consulted with many international
and national organizations and foundations, including the
World Bank, the Asia Development Bank, USAID, UN FAO,
UNCTAD, UNEP, UNDP, Ford Foundation, Rockefeller
Foundation, Packard Foundation, MacArthur Foundation, Pew
Charitable Trusts, and hundreds of international environmental,
human rights and community-based NGOs.
Jesper Clausen Worked with aquaculture in the Asian-Pacific region for 6 years
APO Aquaculture and currently based at FAO Regional Office for Asia and the
FAO Regional Office For Asia And The Pacific in Bangkok working with aquaculture and food safety.
Pacific Before working for FAO, worked for NACA both in Thailand
Maliwan Mansion, 39 Phra Atit Road and in Vietnam, mainly on the Consortium on Shrimp Farming
Bangkok 10200, Thailand and the Environment, and for University of Copenhagen, Faculty
Tel. No.: (66-2) 697 4242 of Life Science as project manager on the project Fishborne
Fax No.: (66-2) 697 4445 Zoonotic Parasites in Vietnam (FIBOZOPA). Main areas of
E-mail: [email protected] experience and expertise are aquaculture and the environment,
food safety aspects of aquaculture production and pre-harvest
better management practices.
F. Brian Davy Academic training mainly in biology (Texas A&M and Cornell
International Institute for Sustainable Universities) with over 35 years of experience in aquaculture/
Development natural resources management in Asia and globally. Work
250 Albert St Suite 553 experience has been primarily with IDRC (International
Ottawa, Ontario Canada K1P 6M1 Development Research Centre of Canada) both based in
Tel. No.: (1-613) 288 2025 Singapore and Canada and with Tokyo University of Fisheries/
Fax No.: 1-613) 238 8515 National Aquaculture Center in Japan. Founding member of the
E-mail: [email protected] Asian Fisheries Society and currently a Senior Fellow with IISD
based in Canada.
Sena De Silva Director-General of NACA and Adjunct Professor, Deakin
Director General University, Victoria, Australia. Over 35 years of experience in
Network of Aquaculture Centres in the academia, and aquaculture and inland fisheries management
Asia-Pacific (NACA) research and development Held academic positions in universities
Suraswadi Bldg, Department of in Sri Lanka, Stirling, Scotland, National University of Singapore
Fisheries and Deakin University, Australia. Was responsible for developing
Kasetsart University Campus and delivering post-graduate courses in aquaculture in the
Ladyao, Jatujak, “distance mode”. Internationally reputed researcher in finfish
Bangkok 10900, Thailand nutrition and reservoir fisheries, and expertise in fish introduction
Tel. No.: (66-2) 561 1728 to 9 and biodiversity in relation to aquaculture. Author of three
Fax No.: (66-2) 561 1727 advanced texts and over 200 research publications in international
E-mail: [email protected] journals. Serves on the editorial board of the journals Aquaculture
International, Aquaculture Research, Fisheries Management and
Ecology. Recipient of many awards, including the NAGA Award
(ICLARM) in 1993, Deakin University Vice Chancellor’s award
for “Best Researcher”, Asian Fisheries Society Gold Medal in
2004 and Honorary Life Member of the World Aquaculture
Society (2005). Was a founder member of the Asian Fisheries
Society and served in the Council for nine years.
Nihad Fejzic Deputy-Director of the State Veterinary Office (SVO) of
Deputy Director Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), responsible for managing SVO,
State Veterinary Office of Bosnia and drafting of national animal health regulations, border veterinary
Herzegovina inspections, coordination of network of diagnostic laboratories,
Radiceva 8/II, training and education activities; National Project Coordinator
71 000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and of FAO/TCP/3101 Strengthening Capacity on Aquaculture
Herzegovina Health Management. Current interests include disease control,
Tel. No.: (387) 33 258 840 introduction of live fish and fishery products, aquaculture health
Fax. No.: (387) 33 265 620 management.
Eric Hallerman Professor and Head of the Department of Fisheries and Wildlife
Dept of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences Sciences at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
Virginia Tech University Research interests include population genetics of fish and
Blacksburg, VA, United States of wildlife species, genetic improvement of aquaculture stocks, and
America 24061-0321 aquaculture biotechnology and related policy. Current projects
Tel. No.: (1-540) 231 3257 include: environmental risk assessment for growth hormone
Fax No.: (1-540) 231 7580 transgenic Atlantic salmon, population genetic characterization
E-mail: [email protected] of Virginia brook trout populations, and genetic stock structure
of horseshoe crab populations. Author, coauthor or editor
of three books, including one in press on risk assessment for
transgenic fishes, and over 100 peer-reviewed papers in scientific
journals, and is on the editorial advisory board of Aquaculture.
Teaches Genetics for Aquaculturists, Conservation Genetics, and
Advanced Conservation Genetics, and other courses as needed.
Mentored eight M.S. and three Ph.D. students to completion,
with two M.S. and three Ph.D. Students in progress. Shared
his expertise with the National Research Council, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration,
the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,
and several private-sector firms.
Matthias Halwart Fishery Resources Officer of the FAO Aquaculture Management
Fishery Resources Officer (Aquaculture and Conservation Service with main responsibility for aquaculture
Service) production and portfolio of activities ranging from technical
Food and Agriculture Organization of project to normative policy-oriented studies and reviews
the United Nations covering topical areas of integrated agriculture-aquaculture
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla and integrated irrigation aquaculture, cage aquaculture, aquatic
00153 Rome, Italy biodiversity and organic aquaculture in Africa, Asia and Pacific,
Tel. No.: (39-06) 570 55080) Latin America and the Caribbean and Europe. Besides project
Fax No.: (39-06) 570 53020 backstopping work, mainly in Asia and Africa, current major
E-mail: [email protected] normative tasks include contributing to the Special Programme
for Aquaculture Development in Africa (SPADA) and the
NACA-like network for Africa as well as interdepartmental
work in interdisciplinary groups on biological diversity, organic
agriculture and integrated farming systems. An important
component of the work programme is the lead responsibility
for the organization, conduct of and follow-up to workshops
and symposia related to the above technical areas – the most
recent one being the proceedings of regional reviews and global
synthesis on cage culture.
Clayton Harrington Policy Officer at DAFF Australia. Involved in policy analysis,
Policy Officer – Aquaculture development and implementation of aquaculture policy in
Fisheries and Aquaculture order to promote sustainable aquaculture in Australia and Asia-
Department of Agriculture Fisheries Pacific. Key projects include implementation of the Australian
and Forestry prawn farmers marketing and promotional levy; development
GPO Box 858, of Australian ornamental fish strategy and research projects;
Canberra ACT 2601, Australia Australia’s National Pollutant Inventory in relation to aquaculture;
Tel. No.: (61-2) 6272 3722 European Union Prawn Working Group, maintaining market
Fax No.: (61-2) 6272 4875 access for Australian prawns.
Chad Hewitt Expert in marine bioinvasions science and management with

Professor, Australian Maritime College over 100 publications in various aspects of marine ecology,
Macquarie Bank Foundation Chair risk determination and management of non-native species and
National Centre for Marine and Coastal vectors. Research interests focus on biological invasions at all
Conservation stages of the process, including vector analyses and limitations to
Private Mailbag 10 successful transport, inoculation and establishment success and
Rosebud, Victoria 3939, Australia impact analyses. Worked as a researcher in marine bioinvasions
Tel. No.: (61-3) 6335 4576 in the United States (University of Oregon, Oak Ridge National
Fax No.: (61-3) 6335 4590 Labs and University of Tennessee) and Australia (CSIRO
E-mail: [email protected] Centre for Research on Introduced Marine Pests –CRIMP) and
as a senior official, Chief Technical Officer Marine Biosecurity,
for the New Zealand government. Currently the Director of
the National Centre for Marine and Coastal Conservation at
the Australian Maritime College and has recently established
the International Marine Biosecurity Education and Research
Consortium with funding from the Australian Government. This
Consortium provides Marine Biosecurity education and training
opportunities in support of APEC across the Pacific Basin. Has
worked at the interface between science and science application
to policy and management providing a unique perspective on
education and training needs.
Tim Huntington Director of Poseidon Aquatic Resource Management Ltd, a
Poseidon Aquatic Resources Europe and Australia-based fisheries and aquaculture consultancy.
Management Ltd Specializes in developing policy, strategy and management
Windrush, Warborne Lane, Portmore solutions for environmentally sustainable aquaculture and
Nt Lymington, Hampshire S041 5RJ capture fisheries. Has led a number of relevant studies for
United Kingdom the FAO, World Bank, ADB and European Commission,
Tel. No.: (44) 1590 610 168/636 576 including guidelines for aquaculture development in sensitive
Fax No.: (44) 1590 610 168 coastal areas (EC, 2005), evaluation of the impact of the use of
E-mail: [email protected] feed fish in European aquaculture (FAO, 2006), assessment of
environmental variables for inclusion in the Common Fisheries
Policy (EC, 2003), environmental impacts of coastal aquaculture in
Bangladesh (World Bank, 2001–2003), coastal zone management
for aquaculture development in Belize (UNDP/GEF,1996) and a
Strategy for Human Capacity Building in Fisheries (FAO, 2003–
2004). He also regularly works as a fishery assessor to the Marine
Stewardship Council ‘Principles and Criteria for Responsible
Fishing’ standard.
Lotus E. Kam Post-doctoral researcher in Biosystems Engineering at the
Post-Doctoral Researcher University of Hawaii. PhD in Communication and Information
University of Hawaii Sciences, dissertation work established a framework to develop
3050 Maile Way, Gilmore 111 a Bayesian decision network model of biosecurity import
Honolulu, Hawaii United States of risk for Hawaii shrimp aquaculture. Previous research and
America 96822 publications include market studies, economic analyses, and
Tel. No.: (1-808) 754 1161 enterprise financial and production models in aquaculture.
Fax No.: (1-504) 285 1865 Research employs a variety of decision-theoretic, simulation,
E-mail: [email protected] operations research, and quantitative methods for conducting
feasibility, cost-benefit and risk analyses, and the development
of computer applications for managerial decision support. Her
Master of Business Administration with emphasis in Management
Information Systems enables her to provide a distinctive strategic
business approach to using innovative technologies and results-
driven performance metrics that inform policy and business
decisions affecting aquaculture development.
Iddya Karunasagar Has been working in the area of pathogens associated with
Senior Fishery Industry Officer aquatic animals for over 25 years and published over 150 papers
(Quality Assurance) in international journals. Has wide experience with both fish/
Fish Utilization and Marketing Service shrimp pathogens causing disease in aquatic animals and human
Food and Agriculture Organization of pathogens associated with aquatic animals, which affect the
the United Nations safety of fish to the consumer. Has been working very closely
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla with FAO/WHO Microbiological Risk Assessment for Foods
00153 Rome, Italy and was a member of Drafting Group for Risk Assessment of
Tel. No.: (39 06) 57054873 Vibrio spp. in seafood. He participated as an FAO Consultant
Fax No.: (39-06) 57055188 on TCP “Strengthening National Capability in Fish Trade
E-mail: [email protected] Including Risk Assessment and Traceability” in six countries
in Asia. In recognition of his contribution for generating
scientific data required for risk assessment, he was awarded
the biannual “Research Contributor of the Biennium” Award
by the International Association of Fish Inspectors at Sydney,
Australia in 2005. In India, Dr. Karunasagar was conferred
the position of “National Professor” by the Indian Council of
Agricultural Research and received the prestigious “Rafi Ahmad
Kidwai Award”from the Ministry of Agriculture. In May 2007,
Dr. Karunasagar joined FAO as Senior Fishery Industry Officer
(Quality Assurance) based in Rome.
Yin Kedong Associate Professor at the Australian Rivers Institute, a multi-
Associate Professor, Griffith University disciplinary environmental oceanographer with an impressive
Australian Rivers Institute academic record in marine ecology. Possesses an impressive
Environment 2 Building (N13) comprehension of the dynamics of a coastal marine system and
170 Kessels Road is an expert in interpreting the complex spatial and temporal
Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia variability of physical processes, nutrients and plankton in the
Tel. No.: (61-7) 3735 4256 water column. Over the years, has been working on dynamics
Fax No.: (61-7) 3735 7615 of nutrients and plankton in a natural marine ecosystem. His
E-mail: [email protected] study also focuses on eutrophication processes by examining
how biological components respond to an input of nutrients,
including anthropogenic nutrients. Research in the Pearl River
estuary revealed that phosphorus is the most limiting nutrient to
phytoplankton biomass production in the estuarine-influenced
waters south of Hong Kong. He was chief environmental
oceanographer for a large consulting project: Environment
and Engineering Feasibility Study under the Hong Kong’s
Harbor Area Treatment Scheme. His scientific findings have
made a significant contribution to the formation of the sewage
treatment strategy in terms of the removal of inorganic nutrients.
In this project, he has gained a great deal of knowledge on
environmental risk analysis and risk communication. He is
experienced in conducting large estuarine projects, as he is chief
scientist for several large projects.
Thitiporn Laoprasert Senior Fisheries Biologist, Aquatic Animal Health Research

Fisheries Biologist Institute, Thailand’s Department of Fisheries (DOF). Early career
Inland Aquatic Animal Health Research on seed production of freshwater fishes and initiated pioneering
Institute work on monitoring of antibiotic residues in shrimp products.
Department of Fisheries Since 1994 involved in fish disease work, completed MSc (Fish
Kasetsart University Campus Pathology) from Stirling University. Has been doing research
Ladyao, Jatujak on fish disease particularly parasitic and fungal diseases, disease
Bangkok 10900, Thailand diagnosis, prevention and control for students, farmers, fisheries
Tel. No.: (66-2) 579 4122 official staff and the private sector within the country and also for
Fax No.: (66-2) 561 3993 scientists and fish disease researchers from neighboring countries.
E-mail: [email protected] Involved in setting up aquatic animal disease surveillance system,
aquatic animal farm monitoring system, standardization and
certification of live aquatic animal health for export, and setting
up a quarantine system for aquatic animals imported to Thailand.
Served as member of AAHRI newsletter and provided technical
information and served as editorial team member of Thai
Fisheries Gazette.
Kenneth M. Y. Leung Assistant Professor of the Department of Ecology &
Department of Ecology and Biodiversity, the University of Hong Kong (HKU). Obtained
Biodiversity B.Sc. in Applied Environmental Sciences at the University of
The University of Hong Kong Portsmouth in England and M.Phil. in Mariculture and the
Pokfulam, China, Hong Kong Special Environment at the City University of Hong Kong. In 2000,
Administartive Region accomplished his PhD in marine ecotoxicology at the University
Tel. No.: (852) 2299 0607 of Glasgow in Scotland. Subsequently, took up a position as a
Fax No.: (852) 2517 6082 Croucher Foundation Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Royal
E-mail: [email protected] Holloway, University of London where he and his colleagues
developed some practical, probabilistic approaches for assessing
ecological risks of industrial chemicals in aquatic ecosystems.
Research interests include aquatic toxicology, ecological risk
assessments, derivation of water and sediment quality guidelines,
biomonitoring and mariculture. Since 1999, published more
than 40 SCI peer-reviewed articles in the field of ecotoxicology
and ecological risk assessments. He is a founding member
of the editorial board of the international journal Integrated
Environmental Assessment and Management, which is published
by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
(SETAC). Serves as a regional representative for SETAC (Asia/
Pacific) and Australasian Society for Ecotoxicology
Pingsun Leung Professor at University of Hawaii in Manoa, Current research
Professor, University of Hawaii at focus is in aquacultural and fisheries economics. Current
Manoa teaching responsibility includes engineering economics,
MBBE/CTAHR spreadsheet modeling, biosystems modeling, biosystems
3050 Maile Way, Gilmore 111 simulation and operations research for management. Serves as
Honolulu, Hawaii USA 96822 cooperating graduate faculty in the Department of Economics
Tel. No.: (1-808) 956 8562 and the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental
Fax No.: (1-808) 956 9219 Management. Served as consultant to UN FAO, NACA, ADB,
E-mail: [email protected] MRC, WFC and UNDP. Founding editor of Aquaculture
Economics and Management and serves as a member of the
editorial board of Aquaculture.
Graham Mair Senior lecturer in aquaculture at Flinders University in South

Senior Lecturer Australia and has recently taken on a major role as program
School of Biological Sciences leader for the Value Chain Profitability research program within
Flinders University the newly approved Australian Seafood Cooperative Research
PO Box 2100 Centre. President of the Asian Pacific Chapter of the World
Adelaide SA 5001, Australia Aquaculture Society. Prior to moving to Australia in 2004,
Tel. No.: (61-8) 820 15968 worked for >15 years in S.E. Asia on a range of aquaculture
Fax No.: (61-8) 820 13015 genetics research projects in the context of aquaculture as a
E-mail: [email protected] component of sustainable livelihoods. Experience across the
whole research continuum from technical development through
to upscaling, commercialization, dissemination and uptake/
impact assessment and thus has an appreciation of the varying
levels of environmental and social risks posed by genetic
improvement. Recently involved in the production of a book
entitled Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified
Organisms, Volume 3: Building Scientific Capacity for Transgenic
Fish in Developing Countries to be published by CABI later in
2007 and was the lead author on a chapter covering the reduction
of risk through confinement. This book covers a wide range of
risk assessment and risk management issues that have broader
relevance to genetically improved fish in general.
Zorana Mehmedbasic Associate Officer of BiH SVO; working on development of
Associate veterinary legislation and other veterinary tasks for which SVO
State Veterinary Office of Bosnia and BiH is authorized as central veterinary authority, including
Herzegovina aquatic animal health regulations, epidemiology, diagnostic
Radiceva 8/II, 71 000 veterinary laboratories and FAO/TCP/3101. Current interests
Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina include animal health control, introduction of live fish and
Tel. No.: (387) 33 258 840 fishery products to BiH and aquaculture health management.
Fax No.: (387) 33 265 620
C.V. Mohan Coordinator of Animal Health Program of NACA. Specialized
Coordinator, Aquatic Animal Health in the field of aquatic pathology. Since 1982, has been involved
Network of Aquaculture Centres in with aquatic animal health teaching and research at the College
Asia-Pacific (NACA) of Fisheries, Mangalore, India, and appointed Professor of Fish
Suraswadi Bldg, Department of Pathology. Since March 2003, has been working in NACA as
Fisheries the Regional Aquatic Animal Health Specialist, managing the
Kasetsart University Campus regional programme in 21 countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Expertise includes fish and shrimp diseases, epidemiology,
Thailand surveillance and risk management. Over 20 years of teaching,
Tel. No.: (66-2) 561 1728 to 9 research and development experience in aquatic animal health
Fax No.: (66-2) 561 1727 and has authored and coauthored over 60 papers in peer reviewed
E-mail: [email protected] international journals.
Thuy Thi Thu Nguyen Coordinator of genetics and biodiversity programme of NACA.
Coordinator, Genetics & Biodiversity Expertise in molecular genetics and its application in phylogeny,
Network of Aquaculture Centres in broodstock management and conservation. Provides advice and
Asia-Pacific (NACA) training on the applications of molecular genetic techniques
Suraswadi Bldg, Department of in relation to inland fisheries management and aquaculture
Fisheries development. Coordinates the Genes and Fish column in
Kasetsart University Campus Aquaculture Asia magazine. Currently involved in the following
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 projects: (a) development of broodstock and conservation plan
Thailand for two indigenous fish species in Sarawak, Malaysia; (b)
Tel. No.: (66-2) 561 1728 to 9 development of a conservation plan of the critically endangered
Fax No.: (66-2) 561 1727 Mekong giant catfish; and (c) taxonomy and genetic resources
E-mail: [email protected] management of scallop species in Thailand.
Michael J. Phillips Environment Specialist and Program Manager (Research and

Coordinator, R & D Development), of NACA. Expertise in shrimp farming and
Network of Aquaculture Centres in environmental impacts of aquaculture. Has been working on
Asia-Pacific (NACA) environmental issues in Asian aquaculture for over two decades.
Suraswadi Bldg, Department of In recent times, has been involved in tsunami rehabilitation
Fisheries work for fish farmers in Aceh and also played a major role in
Kasetsart University Campus developing the “International Principles for Responsible Shrimp
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Farming,” which received the “Green Award” by the World
Thailand Bank in 2006. Considerable experience working with farmers
Tel. No.: (66-2) 561 1728 to 9 and was instrumental in initiating and directing one of the most
Fax No.: (66-2) 561 1727 successful projects, in collaboration with the Marine Exports
E-mail: [email protected] Development Authority, India, in reviving the livelihoods of
small-scale shrimp farmers following the disease epidemics
in 1997/98. Involved in leading the work on certification and
standardization in aquaculture, a burning problem for small-
scale farmers globally.
Ben Ponia Aquaculture Adviser of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Aquaculture Adviser (SPC), a Pacific intergovernmental organization based in Noumea,
Secretariat of the Pacific Community New Caledonia. Manages the aquaculture program, which serves
BP D5-9884 Noumea Cedex – New a regional focal point for the sector and provides a broad range
Caledonia of assistance to its member governments. Worked extensively
Tel. No.: (687) 262 000 throughout SPC’s 22 Pacific Island member countries and is a
Fax No.: (687) 263 818 strong advocate for forging professional linkages outside of the
E-mail: [email protected] region, particularly to Asia. Prior to joining SPC in 2001, was
the Director of Research at the Cook Island Ministry of Marine
Resources. Is university educated in New Zealand, Hawaii, and
Australia with a special interest in black-pearl farming (oyster
physiology and lagoon water quality).
Melba Bondad-Reantaso Retired in 2000 as Senior Aquaculturist from the Philippine

Fishery Resources Officer (Aquaculture Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, Monbusho scholar
Service) (1991–1995) and JSPS postdoctoral fellow (1998–1999). Joined
Food and Agriculture Organization of FAO in 2004 as Fishery Resources Officer (Aquaculture),
the United Nations managed NACA’s aquatic animal health regional programme
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla (1999–2002); Research Pathologist at Maryland DNR’s
00153 Rome, Italy Cooperative Oxford Laboratory from 2002. Initiated pioneering
Tel. No.: (39-06) 570 54843 work on pathogen risk analysis under APEC/NACA/FAO
Fax No.: (39-06) 570 53020 project, co-author of a manual and two commissioned studies
E-mail: [email protected] on pathogen/ecological risk analysis for SPC; spearheaded the
development of National Strategies on Aquatic Animal Health
in Nepal, Myanmar, Philippines, Indonesia; led international
emergency disease investigation task forces on suspected EUS
outbreak (Botswana, 2007), koi herpes virus (Indonesia, 2002),
and pearl oyster mortalities (Philippines, 1996). Currently
Lead Technical Officer of the FAO-Norway funded project
(B.1Objective) Risk Assessment and Management in Aquaculture
and (D.1Objective) Support to National Biosecurity Initiatives/
Policies to Countries facing High Risks of Diseases/Pests; and
FAO TCP projects with biosecurity/risk analysis components
(Belize, Latvia, Bosnia & Herzegovina). Presently involved in
global assessment of freshwater seed resources in aquaculture,
particularly small-scale aquaculture, GAL Source Book on
Gender in Fisheries and Aquaculture, capacity building activities
in aquaculture and aquatic animal health management and chief
editorial responsibilities for FAO Aquaculture Newsletter.
Philip Adam Secretan Managing Director of AUMS Ltd. Aquaculture Underwriting

Managing Director - AUMS Ltd. Management Services, of UK. Convenor of the biennial series
Aquaculture Underwriting of Aquaculture Insurance & Risk Management conferences, the
Management Services 10th, which was supported by FAO and held in Vigo, Spain, in
112 Malling Street April 2006. Has been closely involved in aquaculture insurance
Lewes, East Sussex, BN7 2RJ, UK and risk management since 1974, when he was centrally involved
Tel. No.: (44-1) 273 488094 in founding the insurance market for aquaculture stock mortality
Fax No.: (44-1) 273 479645 in Lloyd’s of London and the international insurance market.
E-mail: [email protected] Lectured widely on aquaculture insurance and risk management
and has conducted numerous risk management surveys of
individual operations and regional industries in many parts of the
world involving many different species and growing systems.
Susana V. Siar Fishery Industry Officer (Rural Development) at the Fishing

Fishery Industry Officer Technology Service, FAO. From 1989 to mid-2004 she was
Fishing Technology Service connected with the Aquaculture Department of the Southeast
Food and Agricultural Organization of Asian Fisheries Development Center (SEAFDEC) in Tigbauan,
the United Nations Iloilo, Philippines, where she was involved in community-
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla based coastal resource management, socio-economic surveys
00153 Rome, Italy of fishing communities, and in training related to aquaculture
Tel. No.: (39-06) 570 56612 development. Shortly before she joined FAO, she was working
Fax No.: (39-06) 57055188 for the WorldFish Center in Penang, Malaysia as a regional
E-mail: [email protected] coordinator and was involved in project management and
coordination with research partners under the projects on
fisheries co-management (Asia and Africa) and the dissemination
and adoption of aquaculture technology in the Philippines. Her
present projects and involvement include: Technical Cooperation
Project on Capacity Building in Support of Cleaner Fishing
Harbours in India; case studies on the social, economic and
environmental impacts of beach seining; review of the current
state of world capture fisheries insurance; pilot projects on
establishing and strengthening organizations of women fish
processors; pilot project on organizing sea safety groups; and
case studies on the use of socio-economic and demographic
information in community-based fisheries management.
Temdoung Somsiri Currently head of the aquatic animal health research section
Senior Fisheries Biologist of the Inland Aquatic Animal Health Research Institute,
Inland Aquatic Animal Health Research Department of Fisheries, Thailand. Expertise on fish and shellfish
Institute microbiology. Nearly 20 years experience, involved in disease
Department of Fisheries diagnosis, disease control regime for both local consumption and
Kasetsart University Campus exportation, involved with the governmental aquaculture policy
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 and the registration of chemicals and micro-organisms used in
Thailand aquaculture. Most recent research concerning Asiaresist project
Tel. No.: (66-2) 579 4122 funded by the EU focused on three major subjects, including
Fax No.: (66-2) 561 3993 assessment of the extent of antibiotic resistance in aquaculture,
E-mail: [email protected] assessment of the potential for antibiotic resistance transferring
in aquaculture, and identification of critical control points
to eliminate antibiotic resistance, especially chloramphenicol
resistance in the Southeast Asian aquaculture environment.
Outcomes of the project have been available among the partners
and the information is freely accessible via the internet (www.
medinfo.dist.unige.it/asiaresist/). Supervised MSc and Ph.D.
students of Kasetsart University since 1995.
Putth Songsangjinda Senior Fisheries Biologist, Thailand’s Department of Fisheries.

Fisheries Biologist More than 20 years of research work in the field of aquaculture
Department of Fisheries system management, particularly on environmental quality,
1/19 Moo 3, Kaorupchang, Muang aquaculture eutrophication, effluent treatment, recirculation
District system, material budget and modeling in marine shrimp
Songkhla 90000 Thailand production. Involved in the development of shrimp farm
Tel. No.: (66-74) 311 895 certification schemes of Thailand since 1999 and trained for the
Fax No.: (66-74) 442 054 ISO and IEC guide for the quality system certifications, especially
E-mail: [email protected] for the organic aquaculture production system. Invited as a
lecturer in many topics related to the experience in development
of shrimp farm certification scheme, mangrove friendly shrimp
culture and shrimp farm management in many Asian countries
by NACA, SEAFDEC and private companies.
Rohana P. Subasinghe Senior Fisheries Resources Officer (Aquaculture) of the Fisheries

Senior Fishery Resources Officer and Aquaculture Department of FAO. Specialized in aquaculture,
(Aquaculture Service) disease control and health management (with particular reference
Food and Agriculture Organization of to microbiology and immunology). Has worked in all parts
the United Nations of the world, with most experience in Asia. Was responsible
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla for many projects on aquaculture and aquatic animal health at
00153 Rome, Italy national, regional and international levels. A former teacher of
Tel. No.: (39-06) 570 56473 the University of Colombo and the Universiti Putra Malaysia,
Fax No.: (39-06) 570 53020 Rohana earned his PhD from Stirling University. Has been
E-mail: [email protected] responsible for initiating major policy changes in aquatic health
management in relation to aquaculture in the region and globally.
Currently serves as Technical Secretary to the Sub-Committee
on Aquaculture of the Committee on Fisheries of the FAO.
Varin Tanasomwang Director of Samutsakhon Coastal Fisheries Research and

Director Development Center, Coastal Fisheries Research and
Samutsakhon Coastal Fisheries Research Development Bureau, Department of Fisheries. Earned a
& Development Center Bachelor Degree from Kasetsart University in 1977 in the field
127 Moo 8, Khok-Kham, Muang of aquaculture, Master Degree from Miyazaki University in 1986
Samut Sakhon Province 74000, Thailand and Doctoral Degree from Hiroshima University in 1989 in the
Tel. No.: (66-34) 426 220 field of Fish Pathology. Current work includes responsibility for
Fax No.: (66-34) 857 138 all activities in the center, which includes administration, research
E-mail: [email protected] and development, farm certification, inspection of drug residues
in cultured shrimp and diagnosis of aquatic animal health; also
involved in improvement of marine shrimp farm standard and
preparing procedures of the certification body.
Suda Tandavanitj Background is fishery biology. Worked as Head of the Antibiotic

Director, Inland Aquatic Animal Health Residue Inspection Unit at Phuket Coastal Fisheries and
Research Institute Department of Development Center from 1990–2003. During that period,
Fisheries involved in a number of researches on shrimp diseases, especially
Kasetsart University Campus parasitic and viral diseases. Currently serving as Director of
Ladyao, Jatujak,Bangkok 10900 the Aquatic Animal Health Research Institute of Thailand’s
Thailand Department of Fisheries. Involved with the national aquatic
Tel. No.: (66-2) 579 4122 animal disease control policy under the Animal Epidemic Act.
Fax No.: (66-2) 561 3993 Also appointed as a member of the National Fish Disease
E-mail: [email protected] Committee as well as the Committee of the Antibiotic Control
Plan.
Sanin Tankovic Senior Associate for Veterinary Public Health of the SVO of
Senior Associate, Veterinary Public BiH. Involved in drafting of national animal health regulations;
Health national residue control plan, veterinary sanitary conditions
State Veterinary Office of Bosnia and during import of live fish and fishery products into BiH, and other
Herzegovina tasks related to SVO as central veterinary authority; participating
Radiceva 8/II, 71 000 Sarajevo, Bosnia in FAO/TCP/3101; currently interested in introduction of
and Herzegovina live fish and fishery products into BiH and aquaculture health
Tel. No.: (387) 33 258 840 management.
Fax No.: (387) 33 265 620
Montira Thavornyutikarn Fishery Biologist at the Coastal Aquatic Animal Health Research
Senior Fisheries Biologist Institute, Thailand’s Department of Fisheries. Specialized in
Coastal Aquatic Animal Health shrimp diseases. Since 2004, responsible for aquatic animal disease
Research Institute control and health management. Involved in epidemiology,
130/2 Moo 8, Tambol awong surveillance and risk management, standard farm practices
Muang District such as good aquaculture practice/code of conduct. Research
Songkhla 90100, Thailand focussed on herbs using in aquaculture. Fields of interest include
Tel. No.: (66-74) 334 516 to 8 epidemiology, surveillance and biotechnology.
Fax No.: (66-74) 334 515
NR Umesh Fisheries postgraduate with more than 13 years of field experience

Project Supervisor, MPEDA/NACA in aquaculture projects in India (shrimp project for 5 yrs), Jordan
Plot No 8, SBI Officers’ Colony (tilapia project for 6 yrs) and Ghana (IFC project in tilapia
Rajendra Nagar, Kakinada 533003 for 2 yrs). From 2006 working as Project Supervisor in the
East Godavari District, Andhra Pradesh, MPEDA-NACA village demonstration program, which is a
India collaborative project between MPEDA and NACA on shrimp
Tel. No.: (91-9440) 711 600 disease control in India. Current job in the project is to organize
E-mail: [email protected] small-scale farmers into self-help groups known as “Aquaclubs”
for adoption of “BMPs” towards capacity building among the
farmers; promoting better management practices to improve
aquaculture productivity and profits in Aquaclubs/societies;
capacity-building and empowerment of primary producers;
facilitating improved service provision to farmers; connecting
farmers to markets to receive a better price for quality product;
technology transfer and diversification to other commercially
important species; supporting improved food security and
sustainable livelihoods in aquaculture communities. Current
interests include formation of Aquaclub/Society as a promising
model for farmers, especially small farmers to work together,
solve their day to day farming problems and earn their livelihood
by helping the industry to meet the customer demand.
Cheng Wo Wing Fisheries Officer (Aquaculture Management) at Agriculture,

Head of Aquaculture Management Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) in HKSARG.
Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Current responsibility includes accredited fish farm scheme,
Department baseline survey on local fish farms, oyster monitoring programme
China, Hong Kong Special and food safety for seafood. Prior to joining AFCD in 1997,
Administrative Region worked for 5 years in Ocean Park Corporation on a range
8/F, Cheung Sha Wan Government of projects including Shark Aquarium, Ocean Theatre and
Offices Atoll Reef. Experience includes wetland management, marine
303 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Kowloon, conservation, environmental impact assessments and thus has
Hong Kong SAR an appreciation of environmental protection and sustainable
Tel. No.: (852) 2873 8337 development of aquaculture. Hasdedicated services in NGOs,
Fax No.: (852) 2870 0324 including WWF, Friends of the Earth and Green Power. Obtained
E-mail: [email protected] M. Phil. from the Chinese University of Hong Kong (1981)
and Ph.D. from l’Univerite de Bretagne Occidentale, France
(1985). Expertise includes fish and shrimp culture, oceanarium
management and environmental impact assessment.
Malinee Witchawut Senior Fisheries Biologist at the Marine Shrimp Culture Research
Fisheries Biologist Institute, Thailand’s Department of Fisheries. The institute has
Marine Shrimp Culture Research primary responsibility to carry out investigations for further
Institute advancement of technology in the fields of shrimp genetic
Department of Fisheries selection and breeding technology, shrimp culture technology,
Kasetsart University Campus coastal environment protection, shrimp farm management and
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 shrimp farm standard practices. Involved in Food Safety Project
Thailand (particularly for marine shrimp farms and products), in policies
Tel. No.: (66-2) 561 3997 and planning on import and export of marine shrimp products
Fax No.: (66-2) 561 3997 and live aquatic animals, improvement of marine shrimp farm
E-mail: [email protected] standards (procedure and regulation) and products quality
control.
Annex 2
Expert workshop programme
Date, Day and Time Activities

Thursday, 7 June Arrival of participants to Bangkok
Day 1: Friday, 8 June
08:00-11:00 Travel from Bangkok to Rayong by car
11:00-14:00 Check-in and lunch
14:00-14:15 Opening remarks
Dr Rohana Subasinghe (FAO)
Dr Sena de Silva (NACA)
14:15-14:30 Presentation 1: Project purpose, participation, process,
products
Dr Melba Reantaso (FAO)
14:30-14:45 Self-introduction of workshop participants
14:45-15:15 Presentation 2: General principles of the risk analysis
process and its application to aquaculture
Dr J. Richard Arthur (FAO Consultant)
15:15-15:45 Coffee break
15:45-16:10 Presentation 3: Food safety and public health risk associated
with products of aquaculture
Dr Iddya Karunasagar (FAO)
16:10-16:35 Presentation 4: Pathogen risk analysis for aquaculture
production
Dr Melba Reantaso (FAO)
16:35-17:00 Presentation 5: Application of risk analysis to genetic issues
in aquaculture (25 min)
Dr Eric Hallerman (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State
University)
17:00-17:30 Discussion (30 min)
17:30-17:40 Day 1 and 2 announcements
19:00- Welcome dinner
Day 2: Saturday, 9 June
08:30-08:55 Presentation 6: Ecological (pest) risk assessment and
management
Dr Kenneth Leung and Dr David Dudgeon (University of
Hong Kong)
08:55-09:20 Presentation 7: Environmental Risk Analysis
Dr Michael Phillips (NACA) and Dr Rohana Subasinghe
(FAO)
09:20-09:45 Presentation 8: GESAMP WG 31 Environmental risk
assessment and communication in coastal aquaculture (work
in progress)
09:45-10:10 Presentation 9: Marine invasive species risk analysis

Dr Marnie Campbell and Dr Chad Hewitt (National Center
for Marine and Coastal Conservation, Australian Maritime
College)
10:10-10.40 Coffee break
10:40-11:05 Presentation 10: Guidelines for the ecological risk
assessment of marine fish aquaculture
Mr Colin Nash (NOAA) – to be presented by Mr Phillip
AD Secretan
11:05-11:30 Presentation 11: Financial risks analysis in aquaculture
Dr Lotus Kam and Dr Pingsun Leung (University of
Hawaii)
11:30-11:55 Presentation 12: Social risks in aquaculture
Mr Pedro Bueno (NACA)
11:55-12:20 Presentation 13: Insurance industry risk analysis process
Mr Phillip AD Secretan (AUMS Limited)
12:20-12:45 Presentation 14: Better management practices in shrimp
aquaculture: experiences in India
Mr. Umesh NR (MPEDA/NACA)
13:10-14:30 Lunch break
14:30-15:30 Presentation of guidelines for the working groups and
discussion
15:30-18:00 Parallel working group discussions
Working Group 1
Working Group 2
Working Group 3
18:00 End of day
Day 3: Sunday, 10 June
08:30-08:40 Day 3 Announcements
08:40-18:00 Continue parallel working group discussions
Working Group 1
Working Group 2
Working Group 3
10:30-11:30 Reporting of working group progress
Working Group 4
Working Group 5
15:30-16:00 Coffee Break
Working Group 4
Working Group 5
18:00 End of day
Day 4: Monday, 11 June

Day 4 Announcements
09:00-10:30 Presentation 15: Working Group 1 and discussion (30 min)
11:00-11:30 Coffee Break
14:00-14:30 Final conclusions and way forward
14:30-15:00 Closing ceremony
15:30- Participants depart for Bangkok
Tuesday, 12 June
Participants depart from Bangkok to home country
Annex 3
Expert workshop group photo
Forty-two aquaculture experts (policy-makers, risk analysis practitioners and technical experts
in various aspects, e.g. diseases, food safety, genetics, environment, socio-economics, aquaculture
insurance) representing various international, regional and national organizations and institutions
in Asia, the Pacific, Oceania, Europe and North America, participated in the FAO/NACA Expert
Workshop on Understanding and Applying Risk Analysis in Aquaculture held in Rayong, Thailand,
from 7 to 11 June 2007.
FAO
ISSN 2070-7010
FISHERIES AND
AQUACULTURE
519
TECHNICAL
PAPER
519
Understanding and applying


Risk analysis is an objective, systematic, standardized and defensible method of assessing
the likelihood of negative consequences occurring due to a proposed action or activity
and the likely magnitude of those consequences, or, simply put, it is “science-based
decision-making”. Risk analysis has mainly been applied in assessing risks to society and the
environment posed by hazards created by or associated with aquaculture development,
e.g. risks of environmental degradation; introduction and spread of pathogens, pests and
invasive species; genetic impacts; unsafe foods; and negative social and economic impacts.
Risk analysis provides insights and assists in making decisions that will help avoid such
negative impacts and allows aquaculture development to proceed in a more socially and
environmentally responsible manner. An integrated approach to risk analysis will assist the
aquaculture sector in reducing risks to successful operations from both internal and external
hazards and can similarly contribute to protect the environment, society and other resource
users from adverse and often unpredicted impacts. This could lead to improved profitability
and sustainability of the sector, while at the same time improving the public’s perception of
aquaculture as a responsible, sustainable and environmentally-friendly activity.
ISBN 978-92-5-106152-7 ISSN 2070-7010
9 789251 061527
FAO
TC/M/I0490E/1/11.08/2000

Understanding and Applying Risk Analysis in Aquaculture

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FAO

Understanding and applying

Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture

ISBN 978-92-5-106152-7 ISSN 2070-7010

risk analysis in aquaculture

James Richard Arthur

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS

All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information

risk analysis in aquaculture TECHNICAL

James Richard Arthur

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS

All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information

Preparation of this document

A project “Application of risk analysis to aquaculture production” was undertaken in

Bondad-Reantaso, M.G.; Arthur, J.R.; Subasinghe, R.P. (eds).

Preparation of this document iii

Part 1 – CONTRIBUTED PAPERS ON UNDERSTANDING AND APPLYING

PART 2 – PROCEEDINGS OF THE FAO/NACA EXPERT WORKSHOP ON

Technical workshop 259

This publication is an outcome of the contributions of the many individuals who

J. Richard Arthur Barriere, B.C., Canada V0E 1E0

G. Ravi Babu National Center for Sustainable Aquaculture, 69-17-8,

B.V. Bhat Marine Products Export Development Authority

Melba G. Bondad-Reantaso FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department,

Pedro B. Bueno Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the

Peter R. Burbridge University of Newcastle (Rtd), Perthshire PH6 2JS,

Marnie L. Campbell Australian Maritime College, Victoria, Australia

David Dudgeon The University of Hong Kong, China,

Eric Hallerman Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University,

Chad L. Hewitt Australian Maritime College, Victoria, Australia

Lotus E. Kam University of Hawaii,

Iddya Karunasagar FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department,

Kenneth M.Y. Leung The University of Hong Kong, China,

Pingsun Leung University of Hawaii,

A.B. Chandra Mohan National Center for Sustainable Aquaculture, 69-17-8,

C.V. Mohan Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the

Colin E. Nash National Marine Fisheries Station,

P.A. Padiyar Food And Agriculture Organization of the United

Michael J. Phillips Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the

Philip A.D. Secretan AUMS Ltd.,

Rohana P. Subasinghe FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department,

N.R. Umesh National Center for Sustainable Aquaculture,

John K. Volkman CSIRO Marine Research,

Peter Appleford Department of Primary Industries,

J. Richard Arthur Barriere, BC, Canada

Devin Bartley FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department,

Malcolm Beveridge The WorldFish Center – Cairo Office,

Pedro B. Bueno Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia and the

Jeffrey P. Fisher ENVIRON International Corp., Seattle,

John Hambrey Hambrey Consulting, Ross-shire,

Doris Soto FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department,

Raymon van Anrooy FAO Subregional Office for Central Asia,

Acronyms and abbreviations

AAPQIS Aquatic Animal Pathogen and Quarantine Information

GESAMP Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine

SPF specific pathogen free

General principles of the risk

THE CONCEPT OF RISK

WHAT IS RISK ANALYSIS?

The risk analysis process