Value Investing Spreadsheet
Value Investing Spreadsheet
Value Investing Spreadsheet
FEATURE
Even a casual observer of the markets understands that the stock market moves both up and downoften
in strong, but short bursts. Investors
looking to commit funds to the market may be paralyzed with the fear of
investing a significant sum of money
just prior to a severe market downturn. However, by standing on the
sidelines, investors lose out on participating in the long-term superior returns of the stock market. The issue is
one of market timing, and no matter
what the currently popular market
prognosticator says, it is practically
impossible to consistently call market
tops and bottoms.
Dollar cost averaging and its variations, such as value averaging, offer
investors an alternative to the all-ornothing approach, allowing them to
ease into the market over time, which
reduces the timing risk. The mechanical aspects of averaging provide an
investment discipline, require no market forecasts, and are relatively simple
to initiate.
The Concept
Dollar cost averaging is simple in
concept: Invest a fixed amount at equal
intervals and continue to do so over a
long period. The result is that more
shares of a stock or mutual fund are
purchased when prices are relatively
low, and fewer shares are purchased
when prices are relatively high. This
can result in a lower average cost per
share over time.
Value averaging is a variation: Instead of investing a fixed dollar
amount each interval, the amount invested varies so that the total value of
the investment increases by a fixed
sum or percentage each interval. If
share price increases alone cause the
total value of the investment to increase above the planned fixed
amount, then the investor must sell
shares instead of adding to the investment.
July/August 2001
interval is important, and every quarter, two months, or month is reasonable. Investing weekly, however, is
probably overkill, while waiting every six months or every year to invest
is too infrequent and may defeat the
benefits of diversifying the investments over time in an ever-changing
market.
How They Work: An Example
Tables 1 and 2 show examples of
dollar cost averaging and its more
market-tuned cousin, value averaging,
illustrating the structure of each investment plan and highlighting the
differences. The investments in the
example are the Vanguard 500 Index
mutual fund (Table 1), a broad-based
large-cap stock index fund, and Janus
(Table 2), a growth mutual fund; the
time period covered is the last
five-and-a-half calendar years, January 1996 through June 2001; the investment frequency is quarterly. These
two averaging approaches could be
used to invest in individual stocks as
well.
Dividend and capital gains distributions are ignored to simplify the presentation, but for investors the reinvestment of all dividends and distributions should be part of any investment plan.
The examples use a $3,000 initial investment coupled with an $1,000 quarterly contribution for the dollar cost
averaging approach: $1,000 is invested
each quarter at the prevailing price of
the security.
For the value averaging approach,
the same $3,000 initial investment
along with a $1,000 quarterly increase
in value is used: The amount invested
quarterly varies such that the total
value of the investment increases by
$1,000 each quarter; if the share price
rises enough to cause the total value of
the investment to increase by more
than $1,000 during the quarter, shares
would be sold to hold the increase in
21
value to $1,000 for the period. For example, in the fourth quarter of 1998,
Janus jumped from a net asset value of
$26.85 to $33.65 (Table 2). To keep the
increase in value to $1,000, the following calculations must be made: At the
end of the quarter, the investor held
521.415 shares with a net asset value
of $33.65 before any changes, so the
value of the portfolio would have been
$17,545.61 (521.415 x $33.65), an increase of $3,546, or $2,546 more than
the planned $1,000 increase. Therefore, 75.65 shares ($2,545.61 divided
by $33.65, rounded) would have to be
sold.
While dollar cost averaging is unchanging, value averaging forces sales
when prices rise sharply and forces
larger purchasesmore shares purchasedwhen prices fall. For example
Quarter
Dec1995
Mar1996
Jun1996
Sep1996
Dec1996
Mar1997
Jun1997
Sep1997
Dec1997
Mar1998
Jun1998
Sep1998
Dec1998
Mar1999
Jun1999
Sep1999
Dec1999
Mar2000
Jun2000
Sep2000
Dec2000
Mar2001
Jun2001
NAV
($)
57.60
60.42
62.89
64.59
69.16
70.69
82.73
88.65
90.07
102.21
105.30
94.56
113.95
118.90
126.83
118.55
135.33
138.08
134.15
132.59
121.86
107.07
113.02
Return on Investment
54 . 5 %
74 .1%
Historical mutual fund prices provided by Media General Financial Services through MSN MoneyCentral Investor.
Tableexcludesimpactof dividendand capitalgain distributions.
22
CI
Quarter
Dec1995
Mar1996
Jun1996
Sep1996
Dec1996
Mar1997
Jun1997
Sep1997
Dec1997
Mar1998
Jun1998
Sep1998
Dec1998
Mar1999
Jun1999
Sep1999
Dec1999
Mar2000
Jun2000
Sep2000
Dec2000
Mar2001
Jun2001
NAV
($)
23.04
24.94
25.44
26.83
24.45
24.39
27.62
30.14
24.90
28.51
30.17
26.85
33.65
37.47
40.20
39.57
44.05
48.65
45.39
45.72
33.29
27.29
29.20
3.8%
16.4%
Historical mutual fund and industry prices provided by Media General Financial Services through MSN MoneyCentral Investor.
Tableexcludesimpactof dividendand capitalgain distributions.
July/August 2001
23
Figure 1.
Value Averaging With Selling of Shares
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
1 Value Averaging Worksheet, July/August 2001 Computerized Investing, AAII
2
Ticker QQQ
Security Nasdaq-100 Trust, Series 1
3
4
$1,000 Dollar Amount of Initial Investment
5
$1,000 Dollar Amount of Increase Desired Each Period
6
0 << Purchase Factional Shares? (Enter 1 if Yes, 0 if No)
7
Fractional shares WILL NOT purchased
8
0 << Do You Wish to Sell Shares to Force Portfolio to Maintain Desired Level? (Enter 1 if Yes, 0 if No)
9
Shares WILL NOT be sold to force portfolio to desired level
10
11
No. of
No. of
12
Share
Shares
Shares
Total
Amount
No. of
Shares
13
Price
Acquired
Owned
Value
to
Shares
Owned
14
Desired
or
Since Last
Before
Before
Invest
to Buy
After
15
Date
Value
NAV
Rebalancing Rebalancing Rebalancing (Redeem)
(Sell) Rebalancing
16
3/31/99
$1,000
52.469
0.000
$0.00
$1,000.00
19.000
19.000
17
4/30/99
$2,000
53.719
19.000
$1,020.66
$979.34
18.000
37.000
18
5/31/99
$3,000
52.031
37.000
$1,925.15
$1,074.85
21.000
58.000
19
6/30/99
$4,000
57.625
58.000
$3,342.25
$657.75
11.000
69.000
20
7/31/99
$5,000
56.594
69.000
$3,904.99
$1,095.01
19.000
88.000
21
8/31/99
$6,000
59.688
88.000
$5,252.54
$747.46
13.000
101.000
22
9/30/99
$7,000
60.188
101.000
$6,078.99
$921.01
15.000
116.000
23
10/31/99
$8,000
65.750
116.000
$7,627.00
$373.00
6.000
122.000
24
11/30/99
$9,000
73.500
122.000
$8,967.00
$33.00
0.000
122.000
25
12/31/99
$10,000
91.375
122.000
$11,147.75
$0.00
0.000
122.000
26
1/31/00
$11,000
89.688
122.000
$10,941.94
$58.06
1.000
123.000
27
2/29/00
$12,000 106.750
123.000
$13,130.25
$0.00
0.000
123.000
28
3/31/00
$13,000 109.500
123.000
$13,468.50
$0.00
0.000
123.000
29
4/30/00
$14,000
94.750
123.000
$11,654.25
$2,345.75
25.000
148.000
30
5/31/00
$15,000
83.125
148.000
$12,302.50
$2,697.50
32.000
180.000
31
6/30/00
$16,000
93.438
180.000
$16,818.84
$0.00
0.000
180.000
32
7/31/00
$17,000
89.438
180.000
$16,098.84
$901.16
10.000
190.000
33
8/31/00
$18,000 101.625
190.000
$19,308.75
$0.00
0.000
190.000
34
9/30/00
$19,000
88.750
190.000
$16,862.50
$2,137.50
24.000
214.000
35
10/31/00
$20,000
81.703
214.000
$17,484.44
$2,515.56
31.000
245.000
36
11/30/00
$21,000
62.984
245.000
$15,431.08
$5,568.92
88.000
333.000
37
12/31/00
$22,000
58.375
333.000
$19,438.88
$2,561.13
44.000
377.000
38
1/31/01
$23,000
64.300
377.000
$24,241.10
$0.00
0.000
377.000
39
2/28/01
$24,000
47.450
377.000
$17,888.65
$6,111.35 129.000
506.000
40
3/31/01
$25,000
39.150
506.000
$19,809.90
$5,190.10 133.000
639.000
41
4/30/01
$26,000
46.150
639.000
$29,489.85
$0.00
0.000
639.000
42
5/31/01
$27,000
44.730
639.000
$28,582.47
$0.00
0.000
639.000
43
6/30/01
$28,000
45.700
639.000
$29,202.30
$0.00
0.000
639.000
44
Total
Invested
$1,000
$1,979
$3,054
$3,712
$4,807
$5,554
$6,475
$6,848
$6,881
$6,881
$6,939
$6,939
$6,939
$9,285
$11,983
$11,983
$12,884
$12,884
$15,021
$17,537
$23,106
$25,667
$25,667
$31,778
$36,968
$36,968
$36,968
$36,968
Excel Spreadsheet available in the Download Library at www.aaii.com under Files From AAII.
cell A6.
Cell A7 is where you indicate if you
can purchase or sell fractional shares.
Sales or purchases are normally done
in whole share increments for stocks,
while mutual funds can usually be
purchased or sold using fractional
shares. Enter a 1 in cell A7 if you want
to work with fractional share amounts,
or 0 if you cannot. The message in cell
B8 confirms your selection.
Cell A9 is where you indicate if you
wish to sell shares when your portfo-
lio increases beyond the amount desired for a period. Enter 1 in cell A9 if
you wish to sell shares; enter 0 if you
do not wish to sell at those times. As
confirmation, a formula in cell B10
will report how the spreadsheet is calculating the reinvestment amount.
Column A lists the date of each rebalancing. You can use any time period desiredsimply input the values
in column A. Column B calculates the
desired value for each time period,
and column C is where you input the
CI
Figure 2.
Value Averaging With No Selling of Shares
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
1 Value Averaging Worksheet, July/August 2001 Computerized Investing, AAII
2
Ticker QQQ
Security Nasdaq-100 Trust, Series 1
3
4
$1,000 Dollar Amount of Initial Investment
5
$1,000 Dollar Amount of Increase Desired Each Period
6
0 << Purchase Factional Shares? (Enter 1 if Yes, 0 if No)
7
Fractional shares WILL NOT purchased
8
1 << Do You Wish to Sell Shares to Force Portfolio to Maintain Desired Level? (Enter 1 if Yes, 0 if No)
9
Shares WILL be sold to keep portfolio at desired level
10
11
No. of
No. of
12
Share
Shares
Shares
Total
Amount
No. of
Shares
13
Price
Acquired
Owned
Value
to
Shares
Owned
14
Desired
or
Since Last
Before
Before
Invest
to Buy
After
15
Date
Value
NAV
Rebalancing Rebalancing Rebalancing (Redeem)
(Sell) Rebalancing
16
3/31/99
$1,000
52.469
0.000
$0.00
$1,000.00
19.000
19.000
17
4/30/99
$2,000
53.719
19.000
$1,020.66
$979.34
18.000
37.000
18
5/31/99
$3,000
52.031
37.000
$1,925.15
$1,074.85
21.000
58.000
19
6/30/99
$4,000
57.625
58.000
$3,342.25
$657.75
11.000
69.000
20
7/31/99
$5,000
56.594
69.000
$3,904.99
$1,095.01
19.000
88.000
21
8/31/99
$6,000
59.688
88.000
$5,252.54
$747.46
13.000
101.000
22
9/30/99
$7,000
60.188
101.000
$6,078.99
$921.01
15.000
116.000
23
10/31/99
$8,000
65.750
116.000
$7,627.00
$373.00
6.000
122.000
24
11/30/99
$9,000
73.500
122.000
$8,967.00
$33.00
0.000
122.000
25
12/31/99
$10,000
91.375
122.000
$11,147.75 ($1,147.75) (13.000)
109.000
26
1/31/00
$11,000
89.688
109.000
$9,775.99
$1,224.01
14.000
123.000
27
2/29/00
$12,000 106.750
123.000
$13,130.25 ($1,130.25) (11.000)
112.000
28
3/31/00
$13,000 109.500
112.000
$12,264.00
$736.00
7.000
119.000
29
4/30/00
$14,000
94.750
119.000
$11,275.25
$2,724.75
29.000
148.000
30
5/31/00
$15,000
83.125
148.000
$12,302.50
$2,697.50
32.000
180.000
31
6/30/00
$16,000
93.438
180.000
$16,818.84
($818.84)
(9.000)
171.000
32
7/31/00
$17,000
89.438
171.000
$15,293.90
$1,706.10
19.000
190.000
33
8/31/00
$18,000 101.625
190.000
$19,308.75 ($1,308.75) (13.000)
177.000
34
9/30/00
$19,000
88.750
177.000
$15,708.75
$3,291.25
37.000
214.000
35
10/31/00
$20,000
81.703
214.000
$17,484.44
$2,515.56
31.000
245.000
36
11/30/00
$21,000
62.984
245.000
$15,431.08
$5,568.92
88.000
333.000
37
12/31/00
$22,000
58.375
333.000
$19,438.88
$2,561.13
44.000
377.000
38
1/31/01
$23,000
64.300
377.000
$24,241.10 ($1,241.10) (19.000)
358.000
39
2/28/01
$24,000
47.450
358.000
$16,987.10
$7,012.90 148.000
506.000
40
3/31/01
$25,000
39.150
506.000
$19,809.90
$5,190.10 133.000
639.000
41
4/30/01
$26,000
46.150
639.000
$29,489.85 ($3,489.85) (76.000)
563.000
42
5/31/01
$27,000
44.730
563.000
$25,182.99
$1,817.01
41.000
604.000
43
6/30/01
$28,000
45.700
604.000
$27,602.80
$397.20
9.000
613.000
44
Total
Invested
$1,000
$1,979
$3,054
$3,712
$4,807
$5,554
$6,475
$6,848
$6,881
$5,734
$6,958
$5,827
$6,563
$9,288
$11,986
$11,167
$12,873
$11,564
$14,855
$17,371
$22,940
$25,501
$24,260
$31,273
$36,463
$32,973
$34,790
$35,187
Excel Spreadsheet available in the Download Library at www.aaii.com under Files From AAII.
July/August 2001
25
Ticker
QQQ
Security
Nasdaq-100 Trust, Series 1
A5:
B5:
A6:
B6:
A7:
B7:
B8:
1000
Dollar Amount of Initial Investment
1000
Dollar Amount of Increase Desired Each Period
0
<< Purchase Factional Shares? (Enter 1 if Yes, 0 if No)
=IF(A7=1,Fractional shares WILL be purchased,
Fractional shares WILL NOT purchased)
1
<< Do You Wish to Sell Shares to Force Portfolio to Maintain
Desired Level? (Enter 1 if Yes, 0 if No)
=IF(A9=1,Shares WILL be sold to keep portfolio at desired
level,Shares WILL NOT be sold to force portfolio to
desiredlevel)
No. of
No. of
Share
Shares
Shares
Total
Amount
No. of
Shares
Price
Acquired
Owned
Value
to
Shares
Owned
Desired
or
A9:
B9:
B10:
E12:
I12:
C13:
D13:
E13:
F13:
G13:
H13:
I13:
C14:
D14:
E14:
F14:
G14:
H14:
I14:
B15:
C15:
26
D15:
E15:
F15:
G15:
H15:
I15:
J15:
A16:
B16:
C16:
D16:
E16:
F16:
G16:
H16:
I16:
J16:
A17:
B17:
C17:
E:17:
F17:
G17:
H17:
I17:
J17:
A18:
B18:
C18:
E18:
F18
G18:
H18:
I18:
J18:
Since Last
Before
Before
Invest
to Buy
After
Total
Date
Value
NAV
Rebalancing
Rebalancing
Rebalancing
(Redeem)
(Sell)
Rebalancing
Invested
36250
=$A$5
52.469
0
=E17*C17
=IF(B17-F17<0,IF($A$9=1,B17-F17,0),B17-F17)
=IF($A$7=0,ROUND(G17/C17,0),ROUND(G17/C17,3))
=H17
=G17
36280
=B17+$A$6
53.719
=I17+D18
=E18*C18
=IF(B18-F18<0,IF($A$9=1,B18-F18,0),B18-F18)
=IF($A$7=0,ROUND(G18/C18,0),ROUND(G18/C18,3))
=E18+H18
=G18+J17
(Copy formulas in cells B18 and E18..J18 down
as many rows as necessary)
CI