Center for Globalization and Policy Research,

School of Public Policy and Social Research,

UCLA.

Working Paper No 2,
2001

GLOBALIZATION OF THE WORLD ECONOMY:

POTENTIAL BENEFITS AND COSTS AND A NET ASSESSMENT
Michael D. Intriligator
Professor of Economics, Political Science, and Policy Studies
Director, Burkle Center for International Relations
University of California, Los Angeles

Lecture presented at the Center for Globalization and Policy Research, UCLA
Friday, April 6, 2001

1. Introduction and Purpose

Globalization is a powerful real aspect of the new world system, and it represents
one of the most influential forces in determining the future course of the planet. It has
many dimensions: economic, political, social, cultural, environmental, security, and others.
The focus here will be on the concept of "globalization" as applied to the world economy.
This concept is one that has different interpretations to different people. Partly as a result
of these different interpretations, there are very different reactions to "globalization," with
some seeing it as a serious danger to the world economic system while others see it as
advancing the world economy.

There are three purposes of this paper. First, it will clarify the notion of
"globalization" as applied to the world economy. Second, it will evaluate both the potential
benefits and the potential costs stemming from globalization. Third, it will consider how
the costs or dangers stemming from globalization could be offset through wider
international cooperation and the development of new global institutions.

The view taken here, representing the thesis of this paper, is that there are both
positive and negative aspects to globalization, that some of its positive features stem from
the effects of competition that it entails, and that some of the negative aspects that could
potentially lead to conflicts could be offset by international or global cooperation through
agreements on policy or through the development of new international institutions. Thus,
while globalization can cause international conflicts, it can also contribute to their
containment through the beneficial effects of competition and the potential of global
cooperation to treat economic and other threats facing the planet.

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2. Globalization of the World Economy: An Interpretation

"Globalization" will be understood here to mean major increases in worldwide

trade and exchanges in an increasingly open, integrated, and borderless international
economy. There has been remarkable growth in such trade and exchanges, not only in
traditional international trade in goods and services, but also in exchanges of currencies; in
capital movements; in technology transfer; in people moving through international travel
and migration; and in international flows of information and ideas. One measure of the
extent of globalization is the volume of international financial transactions, with some $1.2
trillion flowing through New York currency markets each day, and with the volume of
daily international stock market transactions exceeding this enormous amount.

Globalization has involved greater openness in the international economy, an

integration of markets on a worldwide basis, and a movement toward a borderless world,
all of which have led to increases in global flows. There are several sources of
globalization over the last several decades. One such source has been technological
advances that have significantly lowered the costs of transportation and communication
and dramatically lowered the costs of data processing and information storage and
retrieval. The latter stems from developments over the last few decades in electronics,
especially the microchip revolution. Electronic mail, the Internet, and the World Wide Web
are some of the manifestations of this new technology, where today's $2,000 laptop
computer is many times more powerful than a $10 million mainframe computer of twenty
years ago.

A second source of globalization has been trade liberalization and other forms of
economic liberalization that have led to reduced trade protection and to a more liberal
world trading system. This process started in the last century, but the two World Wars and
the Great Depression interrupted it. It resumed after World War II through the most-
favored-nation approach to trade liberalization, as embodied in the 1946 General
Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and now in the World Trade Organization
(WTO). As a result, there have been significant reductions in tariffs and other barriers to
trade in goods and services. Other aspects of liberalization have led to increases in the
movement of capital and other factors of production. Some have suggested that
globalization is little more than a return to the world economy of the late nineteenth
century and early twentieth century, when borders were relatively open, when there were
substantial international capital flows and migrations of people, and when the major
nations of Europe depended critically on international trade. This is particularly the view of
some British scholars, looking back to the period of British imperial dominance of the
world economy. While there are some similarities in terms of trade and capital movements,
the period of a century ago did not have some of the major technological innovations that
have led to a globalized world economy today that is qualitatively different from the
international economy of the last century.

A third source of globalization has been changes in institutions, where

organizations have a wider reach, due, in part, to technological changes and to the more
wide-ranging horizons of their managers, who have been empowered by advances in
communications. Thus, corporations that had been mainly focused on a local market have
extended their range in terms of markets and production facilities to a national,

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multinational, international, or even global reach. These changes in industrial structure
have led to increases in the power, profits, and productivity of those firms that can choose
among many nations for their sources of materials, production facilities, and markets,
quickly adjusting to changing market conditions. Virtually every major national or
international enterprise has such a structure or relies on subsidiaries or strategic alliances
to obtain a comparable degree of influence and flexibility. As one measure of their scale,
almost a third of total international trade now occurs solely within these multinational
enterprises. With the advent of such global firms, international conflict has, to some extent,
moved from nations to these firms, with the battle no longer among nations over territory
but rather among firms over their share of world markets. These global firms are seen by
some as a threat to the scope and autonomy of the state, but, while these firms are
powerful, the nation state still retains its traditional and dominant role in the world
economic and political system.

Non-government organizations, the NGO's, have also taken a much broader

perspective that, as in the case of the global firms, is often multinational or global. Even
international organizations, such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund
and World Bank, and the new World Trade Organization have new global roles. Overall,
multinational enterprises and other such organizations, both private and public, have
become the central agents of the new international globalized economy.

A fourth reason for globalization has been the global agreement on ideology, with a
convergence of beliefs in the value of a market economy and a free trade system. This
process started with the political and economic changes that started in the 1978 reforms in
China and then involved a “falling dominoes” series of revolutions in Eastern and Central
Europe starting in 1989 that ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December
1991. This process led to a convergence of ideology, with the former division between
market economies in the West and socialist economies in the East having been replaced by
a near-universal reliance on the market system. This convergence of beliefs in the value of
a market economy has led to a world that is no longer divided into market-oriented and
socialist economies. A major aspect of this convergence of beliefs is the attempt of the
former socialist states to make a transition to a market economy. These attempted
transitions, especially those in the former Soviet Union and in Eastern and Central Europe
have, however, been only partially successful. The nations involved and their supporters in
international organizations and advanced western market economies have tended to focus
on a three-part agenda for transition, involving: 1) stabilization of the macroeconomy, 2)
liberalization of prices, and 3) privatization of state-owned enterprise. Unfortunately, this
“SLP” agenda fails to appreciate the importance of building market institutions, of
establishing competition, and of providing for an appropriate role for the government in a
modern mixed economy.

A fifth reason for globalization has been cultural developments, with a move to a
globalized and homogenized media, the arts, and popular culture and with the widespread
use of the English language for global communication. Partly as a result of these cultural
developments, some, especially the French and other continental Europeans, see
globalization as an attempt at U.S. cultural as well as economic and political hegemony. In
effect, they see globalization as a new form of imperialism or as a new stage of capitalism
in the age of electronics. Some have even interpreted globalization as a new form of

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colonialism, with the U.S. as the new metropole power and with most of the rest of the
world as its colonies, supplying it not only with raw materials, as in earlier forms of
European colonialization, but also with technology; production facilities; labor, capital,
and other inputs to the production process; and markets on a global basis.

Whether one sees globalization as a negative or as a positive development, it must

be understood that it has clearly changed the world system and that it poses both
opportunities and challenges. It is also clear that the above technological, policy,
institutional, ideological, and cultural developments that have led to globalization are still
very active. Thus, barring a radical move in a different direction, these trends toward
greater globalization will likely continue or even accelerate in the future. One important
aspect of these trends will be the growth in international trade in services that has already
increased substantially but promises even greater growth in the future, especially in such
areas as telecommunications and financial services. The result will be continued moves
toward a more open and a more integrated world as it moves closer and closer to a planet
without borders and to a more integrated, open, and interdependent world economy. The
result will be even greater worldwide flows of goods, services, money, capital, technology,
people, information, and ideas.

3. Impacts of Globalization on National Economies

Globalization has had significant impacts on all economies of the world, with
manifold effects. It affects their production of goods and services. It also affects the
employment of labor and other inputs into the production process. In addition, it affects
investment, both in physical capital and in human capital. It affects technology and results
in the diffusion of technology from initiating nations to other nations. It also has major
effects on efficiency, productivity, and competitiveness.

Several impacts of globalization on national economies deserve particular mention.

One is the growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) at a prodigious rate, one that is much
greater than the growth in world trade. Such investment plays a key role in technology
transfer, in industrial restructuring, and in the formation of global enterprises, all of which
have major impacts at the national level. A second is the impact of globalization on
technological innovation. New technologies, as already noted, have been a factor in
globalization, but globalization and the spur of competition have also stimulated further
advances in technology and speeded up its diffusion within nations through foreign direct
investment. A third is the growth of trade in services, including financial, legal, managerial,
and information services and intangibles of all types that have become mainstays of
international commerce. In 1970, less than a third of foreign direct investment related to
the export of services, but today that has risen to half and it is expected to rise even
further, making intellectual capital the most important commodity on world markets. As a
result of the growth of services both nationally and internationally, some have called this
"the age of competence," underscoring the importance of lifelong education and training
and the investment in human capital in every national economy.

4. The Benefits of Globalization Stemming from Competition

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 It has already been noted that globalization has both positive and negative effects.
This section will focus on its positive effects of globalization, stemming from competition,
while the next will focus on its negative effects, which could lead to potential conflicts.
Finally, the last section will consider the potential for international cooperation to diminish
or to offset the negative effects of globalization.

Globalization has led to growing competition on a global basis. While some fear
competition, there are many beneficial effects of competition that can increase production
or efficiency. Competition and the widening of markets can lead to specialization and the
division of labor, as discussed by Adam Smith and other early economists writing on the
benefits of a market system. Specialization and the division of labor, with their implications
for increases in production, now exist not just in a nation but on a worldwide basis. Other
beneficial effects include the economies of scale and scope that can potentially lead to
reductions in costs and prices and are conducive to continuing economic growth. Other
benefits from globalization include the gains from trade in which both parties gain in a
mutually beneficial exchange, where the "parties" can be individuals, firms and other
organizations, nations, trading blocs, continents, or other entities. Globalization can also
result in increased productivity as a result of the rationalization of production on a global
scale and the spread of technology and competitive pressures for continual innovation on a
worldwide basis.

Overall, these beneficial effects of competition stemming from globalization show

its potential value in improving the position of all parties, with the potential for increased
output and higher real wage levels and living standards. The result is a potential for greater
human well being throughout the world. Of course, there is the distributional or equity
issue of who does, in fact, gain from these potential benefits of globalization.

5. The Costs of Globalization and Potential Conflicts

Globalization involves not only benefits, but also has costs or potential problems
that some critics see as great perils. These costs could lead to conflicts of various types,
whether at the regional, national, or international level. One such cost or problem is that of
who gains from its potential benefits. There can be substantial equity problems in the
distribution of the gains from globalization among individuals, organizations, nations, and
regions. Indeed, many of the gains have been going to the rich nations or individuals,
creating greater inequalities and leading to potential conflicts nationally and internationally.
Some have suggested the possibility of convergence of incomes globally based on the
observation that the poor nations are growing at a faster rate than the rich nations. The
reality, however, is that a small group of nations, the "tiger economies" of East Asia, have
been growing at rapid rates, while the least developed nations of Africa, Asia, and South
and Central America have been growing at a slower rate than the rich nations. These poor
nations are thus becoming increasingly marginalized. The result has been not a
convergence but rather a divergence or polarization of incomes worldwide, with the rapid-
growth economies joining the rich nations, but with the poor nations slipping even further
behind. This growing disparity leads to disaffection and possibly even international
conflicts as nations seek to join the club of rich nations and have-not nations struggle with

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the have nations for their share of world output. This issue of distribution is a major
challenge in the process of the globalization of the world economy.

A second cost or problem stemming from globalization is that of major potential

regional or global instabilities stemming from the interdependencies of economies on a
worldwide basis. There is the possibility that local economic fluctuations or crises in one
nation could have regional or even global impacts. This is not just a theoretical possibility
as seen in the exchange rate and financial crisis in Asia, starting in Thailand in 1998 and
then spreading to other Southeast Asian economies and even to South Korea. These
linkages and potential instabilities imply great potential mutual vulnerability of
interconnected economies. A worldwide recession or depression could lead to calls to
break the interdependencies that have been realized through the globalization process, as
happened in the Great Depression of the 1930's, with competitive devaluations, beggar-
my-neighbor policies, escalating tariffs, other forms of protectionism, etc. The result could
be economic conflict, gravitating to economic warfare and possibly to military conflict,
repeating the history of the interwar period leading to the largest war in human history.

A third type of problem stemming from globalization is that the control of national
economies is seen by some as possibly shifting from sovereign governments to other
entities, including the most powerful nation states, multinational or global firms, and
international organizations. The result is that some perceive national sovereignty as being
undermined by the forces of globalization. Thus globalization could lead to a belief among
national leaders that they are helplessly in the grip of global forces and an attitude of
disaffection among the electorate. The result could be extreme nationalism and
xenophobia, along with calls for protectionism and the growth of extremist political
movements, ultimately leading to potential conflicts.

It is sometimes alleged that a cost of globalization is unemployment in the high

wage industrialized economies. The low unemployment rates in many high wage nations
and their high rates in many low wage nations disprove this allegation. National policy and
technological trends are much more important determinants of employment than global
factors. A related myth is that globalization is threatening the social welfare provisions of
some states, but other factors are much more important, including domestic fiscal policy
and demographic trends. In both cases, globalization is a convenient scapegoat for failures
of national policy.

It is important also to appreciate that the economic aspects of globalization are but
one component of its effects. There are potential noneconomic impacts of globalization
involving great risks and potential costs, even the possibility for catastrophe. One is that of
security, where the negative effects of globalization could lead to conflicts, as suggested
above, or the very process of globalization leading to integration of markets could make
conflicts escalate beyond a particular region or raise the stakes of conflict, for example,
from conventional weapons to weapons of mass destruction. A second noneconomic area
in which globalization could lead to catastrophic outcomes is that of political crises, that
could escalate from local to large-scale challenges and, if unresolved, to a catastrophic
outcome. A third such area is that of the environment and health, where the greater
interconnectedness stemming from globalization could lead again to catastrophic

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outcomes, such as those stemming from global environmental impacts, such as global
warming, and pandemics.

6. The Role of Global Cooperation in Dealing with Global Threats and in Creating
a New Post Cold War System

The last two sections have highlighted both the benefits and the costs stemming
from globalization. Some could see globalization as a very dangerous negative
development by focusing on the costs and the potential for conflict while others could see
it as a positive development offering unprecedented opportunities. Both of these views
contain some elements of truth, but each should be offset by the other in order to gain a
full understanding of the impacts of globalization. There are twin myths here, the
optimistic one that globalization leads to only positive outcomes and the pessimistic one
that globalization leads only to negative outcomes. Any objective treatment or net
assessment, however, would have to recognize both the benefits and costs of globalization.

What is the net result of globalization, when taking both benefits and costs into
account? The answer depends crucially on the nature of the world system. In a world beset
by conflicts, globalization would probably have a net negative impact. Conversely, in a
cooperative world, globalization would probably have a net positive impact. Thus,
globalization represents a major challenge and at the same time an unprecedented
opportunity in terms of the possibilities for conflict or cooperation. The challenge is to
create a new world system in the aftermath of the cold war and the movements toward
globalization that would enhance its generally beneficial effects and that would minimize
its actual or potential costs. The key to such a world system will be cooperation among the
nations of the world and dynamic innovation, including the establishment of new
institutions.

The challenge of the present globalized and post cold war economy is comparable
to the challenge facing the winning nations in World War II. The old world had been
destroyed and a new world had to be created. Not one, but two world systems were
created, one in the West and the other in the East. Both involved the creation of new
institutions that would replace the ones that had been destroyed in the war. Each side had
its own ideology and organization, that in the West being market oriented and that in the
East being socialist. Now, of course, the ideological divide has dissolved, where there is a
convergence of ideology on the value of a market economy.

A small group of Americans helped create a new world system for the West during
the period from 1945 to 1955. One of the major participants was Dean Acheson, the U.S.
Secretary of State during part of this period. His memoirs are aptly named Present at the
Creation, given his role in creating this new world system. Another was Will Clayton, who
developed the blueprints for both the Marshall Plan and the General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade. These people, together with President Truman, George Marshall, and others
created the institutions that brought the devastated nations of Europe into the world
community. These institutions included GATT, which evolved into the WTO; the United
Nations; the World Bank and the IMF; the Marshall Plan and OEEC (later to evolve into
the OECD); NATO; and others. These institutions and the new world system that they

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helped create was most successful in bringing the nations of Europe, including both former
enemies and devastated allies, into this new world system and in promoting reconstruction
and growth.

The present post Cold War period has some similarities to the one after World War
II in that a new world system must be created. Such a system that would have to take
account of the new situation of a world not divided by ideology and becoming increasingly
integrated. The sequence of revolutions that began in Eastern Europe in 1989 led directly
or indirectly to the end of the Cold War, the demise of the Warsaw Pact, the unification of
Germany, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the attempted transition of the former
socialist states to democracy and a market economy, with only mixed success. The West
for its part has largely failed to establish structures such as those developed after World
War II to bring Russia, other former Soviet states, and Central and Eastern Europe into
the world economic and political system. In some respects the treatment of Russia in the
current period is similar to the treatment of Germany after World War I rather than its
treatment after World War II. NATO expansion is perhaps the most serious error made in
the post Cold War period, in that it isolated Russia and added little to European security
but at enormous expense. The total cost of NATO expansion will, in fact, be of the same
order of magnitude as the current value of the Marshall Plan, some $90 billion. A new
Marshall Plan for the former socialist nations of Europe could have promoted their
transition and growth through institution building, industrial restructuring, investment and
capital inflows, their integration into the world economy, and their cooperation. These
would have contributed more to European security than the acquisition of advanced
fighter jets and other military equipment by some of these nations that have been admitted
into NATO.

Overall, the challenge of globalization will require truly cooperative efforts of the
great nations, especially among the new great powers of the European Union, the United
States, Canada, Japan, Russia, China, India, Brazil, and others. Their joint activity in
establishing new political arrangements and institutions could go a long way to solving
global problems, including the economic and other problems stemming from globalization.
As was true in the earlier period of the creation of a new world, it will be necessary to
revamp existing institutions or to create new ones so as to deal with economic challenges,
such as the problems of distribution and mutual vulnerability stemming from globalization.
These institutions must have global perspectives and responses and they will require
substantial resources and enforcement mechanisms, including some elements of
supranational decision making and authority, along with appropriate transparency and
accountability.

Consider how global cooperation and new international institutions can treat the
several problems identified earlier as costs or problems of globalization. The first of these
problems was that of the distribution of income and specifically the gains from
globalization both within and between nations. A supranational institution based on global
cooperation could address this problem. It would, in effect, tax the nations gaining from
globalization and use the proceeds to provide financial and technical assistance to those
losing from globalization. This is already being done in a somewhat haphazard way
through the World Bank and, in particular, its soft lending arm, the International
Development Association (IDA) that provides subsidized loans to poor nations on more

8
favorable terms than the World Bank could give. It should be done, however, on a more
systematic basis, which would require either a new international institution or an expansion
and change in the nature of the World Bank. The rich nations should be expected to
support the establishment of such an institution as an investment in global stability, if they
recognize the dangers of serious disparities in the worldwide distribution of income.

The second of the problems identified earlier as stemming from globalization was
the fragility of the international economic system, leading to mutual vulnerability. Again,
international cooperation and the development of new institutions or the expansion of
existing institutions could address this problem. The International Monetary Fund could be
instrumental in dealing with this problem. The IMF has played a key role in providing
support to nations that have experienced instabilities, as in its support for Mexico during
the peso crisis and its agreement to support South Korea during the East Asia financial
crisis. A more credible insurance against these risks would require a substantial
augmentation of the resources of the IMF, the assets of which have not grown at the same
rate as international financial exchanges. International cooperation could also lead to the
implementation of the Tobin tax, a small tax on foreign exchange transactions that could
play a valuable role in limiting destabilizing currency speculation and, at the same time,
provide funding for international organizations.

The third of the problems identified earlier as stemming from globalization was that
of the perceived loss of sovereignty of national governments and political leaders. This
development could lead to fear of the loss of ability of nations to determine their economic
policies, political disaffection, and the rise of extremist politicians and political movements.
The process of globalization, however, need not lead to a loss of sovereignty. Once again,
international cooperation can play a role in ensuring the sovereignty of national
governments and the proper role for political leaders, drawing a firm line between what is
in the province of these governments and their leaders on the one side and what is in the
province of international organizations and multinational or global enterprise on the other.
Participation in the establishment of the needed institutions to deal with these and other
problems stemming from globalization will, by itself, help political leaders to regain a sense
of control over their futures and positions in the global community. For example, the
regulatory regimes of nations and even international organizations have become more
porous and more easily overcome through advances in technology. Examples include the
lack of regulation of the global integrated capital market, of trade in information services
that is widely expected to grow enormously, and of labor and environmental safeguards.
Cooperation among nations and international organizations could offset these
developments by themselves taking advantage of recent technological advances and using
them to reassert control through cooperative activities.

Overall, there are several possible vehicles for cooperation as a way of responding
to the challenges of globalization. One is the strengthening of existing international
institutions. Another is the establishment of new institutions, as in the case of the World
Trade Organization, which has a binding dispute settlement mechanism of a supranational
character. A third is the establishment of larger entities, such as the European Union, or
loose combinations of nations to treat certain economic issues, such as the G-8 or the
Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).

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 Global cooperation through formal or informal institutions provides an increasingly
important mechanism to ensure the proper treatment of global problems, including those
stemming from globalization. Through such global cooperation it should be possible to
ensure equity and stability in a globalized world, leading to economic growth for all, the
transition to a market economic for former socialist states, and economic development for
the poorer nations. Such cooperation is also the way to treat the noneconomic problems of
globalization, including those of environmental and health protection on a world-wide
basis, freedom from political crises or instability, and global peace and security for the
planet.

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