EIR Science

CO2 : The Greatest Scientic Scandal of Our Time

by Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D., Ph.D., D.Sc.
Introduction
On Feb. 2, 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) again uttered its mantra of catastrophe about man-made global warming. After weeks of noisy propaganda, a 21-page Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007, was presented in grandiose style in Paris to a crowd of politicians and media, accompanied by a blackout of the Eiffel Tower to show that electric energy is bad. The event induced a tsunami of hysteria that ran around the world. This was probably the main aim of this clearly political paper, prepared by governmental and United Nations bureaucrats, and published more than three months before the IPCCs 1,600-page scientic report, which is to be released in May. In the words of the IPCC, this delay is needed for adjustment of the main text, so that Changes . . . [could be] made to ensure consistency with the Summary for Policymakers. Not a single word in these 1,600 pages is to be in conict with what politicians said beforehand in the summary! This is a strange and unusual method of operation for a scientic report, and even stranger is the frankness of the IPCCs words about the delay, disclosing its lack of scientic integrity and independence. It is exactly the same modus operandi demonstrated in the three former IPCC reports of 1990, 1995, and 2001: First the politics, then the science. The IPCC style was strongly criticized some years ago, in two editorials in Nature magazine (Anonymous 1994, Maddox 1991). In each of these criticisms, Nature used the United Nations Scientic Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) as an ideal example of how an independent and objective scientic report should be prepared, in this case a report on the global risks from all sources of radiation, including nuclear weapons and Chernobyl. The UNSCEAR assessments presented each year to the UN General Assembly are regarded as a bible of the science of ionizing radiation. Yes, UNSCEAR mostly ts Natures descriptionbut for a price. Because UNSCEARs scientic reports often widely differed from the catastrophic views of the United Nations Environmental Programme or of the former UN Secretary-General, the UN bureaucracy has squeezed the nances of UNSCEAR, down to a level that caused almost a complete halt of its activity (Jaworowski 2002). EIR March 16, 2007

Zbigniew Jaworowski is a multidisciplinary scientist, now a senior advisor at the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw. In the winter of 1957-58, he measured the concentration of CO2 in the atmospheric air at Spitsbergen. From 1972 to 1991, he investigated the history of the pollution of the global atmosphere, measuring the dust preserved in 17 glaciers: in the Tatra Mountains in Poland, in the Arctic, Antarctic, Alaska, Norway, the Alps, the Himalayas, the Ruwenzori Mountains in Uganda, and the Peruvian Andes. He has published many papers on climate, most of them concerning the CO2 measurements in ice cores. Two of his papers on climate appear on the website of 21st Century Science & Technology magazine, www.21stcenturysciencetech.com.

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The campsite of an expedition to excavate ice samples near the giant Langtang Glacier, north of Katmandu, Nepal. The large tent is the eld laboratory; the small tents, just dug out from a three-day snowfall, are for sleeping.
Courtesy of Zbigniew Jaworowski

This obviously is not the case with the IPCC, which is stuffed with money, and in agreement with the UN politics, which are dominated by greens and misanthropic fanaticism. During the past six years, the President of the United States devoted nearly $29 billion to climate research, leading the world with its unparalleled nancial commitment (The White House 2007). This was about $5 billion per year, more than twice the amount spent on the Apollo Program ($2.3 billion per year), which in 1969 put man on the Moon. A side-effect of this situation, and of politicizing the climate issue, was described by meteorologist Piers Corbyn in the Weather Action Bulletin, December 2000: The problem we are faced with is that the meteorological establishment and the global warming lobby research bodies which receive large funding are now apparently so corrupted by the largesse they receive that the scientists in them have sold their integrity. The question arises: Were the decisions concerning this enormous funding for global warming research taken out of genuine concern that the climate is allegedly changing as a result of CO2 industrial emissions, or do some other undisclosed ideas stand behind this money, IPCC activity, Kyoto, and all the gruesome catastrophic propaganda the world is now exposed to? If this concern is genuine, then why do we not see a storm of enthusiastic environmentalists and United Nations ofcials demanding to replace all fossil-fuel plants with nuclear plants, which have zero emission of greenhouse gases, are environmentally friendly, more economical, and much safer for plant workers and much safer for the general population than other sources of energy? Why do we not see a global-scale effort to replace the internal combustion automobile engine with a zero-pollution
EIR March 16, 2007

compressed-air engine? An improved version of such an engine, invented in 1870 by Ludwik Mekarski ,, drove the trams in Nantes and Paris for 34 years after 1879, transporting millions of passengers. Pneumatic locomotives were working in the mines the world over until the end of the 1930s. A pneumatic car is not pie in the sky, but a real thing, now under construction, which in its French version drives some 300 km before the air tank must be relled, at a cost of about $2 per 100 km. Can you imagine the benecial, stabilizing consequences for global politics and economy, and for urban hygiene, of such a replacement, combined with a switch from oil, gas, and coal into nuclear energy? But at the November 2006 mass meeting in Nairobi of 6,000 followers of Kyoto (including UN Secretary-General Ko Annan, the Presidents of Kenya ` ge of ministers from some 180 and Switzerland, and a corte countries), the participants were pressed to not even mention nuclear energy.1 The concern at the top about climate change is not genuine, and there are hidden motives behind the global warming hysteria. Although there is not the space in this paper to discuss these motives fully, they may be illustrated by the following citations (for full references, see Jaworowski 1999). Maurice Strong, who dropped out of school at age 14, established an esoteric global headquarters for the New Age movement in San Luis Valley, Colorado, and helped produce the 1987 Brundtland Report, which ignited todays Green movement. He later become senior advisor to Ko Annan, UN Sec1. Private communication by Prof. Maciej Sadowski, Dec. 7, 2006.

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UN Photo/Mark Garten

UN Photo

Maurice Strong

Tim Wirth

Richard Benedick

A sample trio of the Malthusians behind the global warming hysteria.

retary-General, and chaired the gigantic (40,000 participants) UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Strong, who was responsible for putting together the Kyoto Protocol with thousands of bureaucrats, diplomats, and politicians, stated: We may get to the point where the only way of saving the world will be for industrial civilization to collapse. Strong elaborated on the idea of sustainable development, which, he said, can be implemented by deliberate "quest of poverty . . . reduced resource consumption . . . and set levels of mortality control. Timothy Wirth, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Global Issues, seconded Strongs statement: We have got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic policy and environmental policy. Richard Benedick, a deputy assistant secretary of state who headed policy divisions of the U.S. State Department, stated: A global warming treaty must be implemented even if there is no scientic evidence to back the [enhanced] greenhouse effect.

The Four Basic IPCC Lies

But let us switch back to the IPCC 2007 report. The four basic statements in the Summary for Policymakers are: 1. Carbon dioxide, the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, increased markedly as a result of human activities, and its atmospheric concentration of 379 ppmv (parts per million, by volume) in 2005 by far exceeded the natural range of 180 to 300 ppmv over the last 650,000 years. 2. Since 1750, human activities warmed the climate. 40 Science

3. The warmth of the last half-century is unusual, is the highest in at least the past 1,300 years, and is very likely caused by increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations; 4. Predictions are made that anthropogenic warming will continue for centuries, and between 2090 and 2099 the global average surface temperature will increase 1.1C to 6.4C. Various scare stories of global catastrophes are prophesied to occur if man-made emissions are not curbed by drastic political decisions. The obvious benecial effects of warming for man and all the biosphere are downplayed. Except for CO2, all these points are garlanded with qualications such as likely, very likely, extremely likely, with very high condence, and unequivocal. In fact, to the contrary, all these points are incorrect. The rst Summary for Policymakers statement on the man-made increase of CO2, is a cornerstone of the IPCC report, and of the global warming edice. This statement is a manipulation and a half-truth. It is true that CO2 is the most important anthropogenic [trace] greenhouse gas, but a much more important greenhouse factor is the water naturally present in the atmosphere, which contributes some 95% to the total greenhouse effect. This basic fact is not mentioned at all in the Summary for Policymakers. Also not mentioned is the fact that 97% of the total annual emission of CO2 into the atmosphere comes from natural emissions of the land and sea; human beings add a mere 3%. This man-made 3% of CO2 emissions is responsible for a tiny fraction of the total greenhouse effect, probably close to 0.12%. Propositions of changing, or rather destroying, the global energy system because of this tiny human contribution, in face of the large short-term and long-term natural uctuations of atmospheric CO2, are utterly irresponsible. EIR March 16, 2007

The Truth About Ice Cores

Because carbon dioxide ice core records are regarded as a foundation of the man-made global warming hypothesis, let us dwell on them for a while. The basic assumption behind the CO2 glaciology is a tacit view that air inclusions in ice are a closed system, which permanently preserves the original chemical and isotopic composition of gas, and thus that the inclusions are a suitable matrix for reliable reconstruction of the pre-industrial and ancient atmosphere. This assumption is in conict with ample evidence from numerous earlier CO2 studies, indicating the opposite (see review in Jaworowski et al. 1992b). Proxy determinations of the atmospheric CO2 level by analysis of ice cores, reported since 1985, have been generally lower than the levels measured recently in the atmosphere. But, before 1985, the ice cores were showing values much higher than the current atmospheric concentrations (Jaworowski et al. 1992b). These recent proxy ice core values remained low during the entire past 650,000 years (Siegenthaler et al. 2005)even during the six former interglacial warm periods, when the global temperature was as much as 5C warmer than in our current interglacial! This means that either atmospheric CO2 levels have no discernible inuence on climate (which is true), or that the proxy ice core reconstructions of the chemical composition of the ancient atmosphere are false (which is also true, as shown below). It was never experimentally demonstrated that ice core records reliably represent the original atmospheric composition. Other proxies demonstrated that many millions of years ago, CO2 levels in the atmosphere reached, at various times, 377, 450, and even 3,500 ppmv (Kurschner et al. 1996, Royer et al. 2001), and that during the past 10,000 years these levels were, as a rule, higher than 300 ppmv, uctuating up to 348 ppmv (Kurschner et al. 1996, Royer et al. 2001, Wagner et al. 1999, Wagner et al. 2002). The results of these last studies prove false the assertion of stabilized Holocene CO2 concentrations of 270 ppmv to 280 ppmv until the industrial revolution. The results of the cited pre-1985 studies are strongly supported by direct CO2 measurements, carried out in the preindustrial and 20th-Century atmosphere (see below). About 2 billion years ago, the CO2 atmospheric level was 100 or perhaps even 1,000 times higher than today. According to todays climate models, the Earth would have been too hot for life at that time (Ohmoto et al. 2004). However, geologic evidence suggests there was not a Venus-style, runaway warming. Instead, life ourished then in the oceans and land, with such enormously high levels of this gas of life, from which our bodies and all living creatures are built (Godlewski 1873). Yet, Greens now call this gas a dangerous pollutant. There are four other arbitrary assumptions behind the CO2 glaciology. which were used to support the rst assumption above: EIR March 16, 2007

1. No liquid phase occurs in the ice at a mean annual temperature of 24C or less (Berner et al. 1977, Friedli et al. 1986, Raynaud and Barnola 1985). 2. The entrapment of air in ice is a mechanical process with no differentiation of gas components (Oeschger et al. 1985). 3. The original atmospheric air composition in the gas inclusions is preserved indenitely (Oeschger et al. 1985). 4. The age of gases in the air bubbles is much younger than the age of the ice in which they are entrapped (Oeschger et al. 1985), the age difference ranging from several tens to several ten-thousands of years. More than a decade ago, it was demonstrated that these four basic assumptions are invalid, that the ice cores cannot be regarded as a closed system, and that low pre-industrial concentrations of CO2, and of other trace greenhouse gases, are an artifact, caused by more than 20 physical-chemical processes operating in situ in the polar snow and ice, and in the ice cores. Drilling the cores is a brutal and polluting procedure, drastically disturbing the ice samples (Jaworowski 1994a, Jaworowski et al. 1990, Jaworowski et al. 1992a, and Jaworowski et al. 1992b). Some of these processes, which all cause fractionation of air components, are related to the solubility of gases: In cold water, CO2 is more than 70 times more soluble than nitrogen (N2) and more than 30 times more soluble than oxygen (O2). Liquid water is commonly present in the polar snow and ice, even at the eutectic temperature of 73C (see review in Jaworowski et al. 1992b). Therefore, the conclusions on low pre-industrial atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases cannot be regarded as valid, before experimental studies exclude the existence of these fractionation processes. Such studies were proposed by this author (Jaworowski 1994a, Jaworowski et al. 1992b), but for years they were not performed. In response to criticism of the reliability of ice records, CO2 glaciologists could only state that the ice core record itself proves that the changes in greenhouse gases are not caused by post-deposition processes, but accurately reect atmospheric changes (Raynaud et al. 1993). Only recently, many years after the ice-based edice of anthropogenic warming had reached a skyscraper height, did glaciologists start to study the fractionation of gases in snow and ice (for example, Killawee et al. 1998), and the structure of snow and rn which might play a rst-order role in changing gas chemistry and isotopic proles in the ice sheets (Albert 2004, Leeman and Albert 2002, and Severinghaus et al. 2001). Recently, Brooks Hurd, a high-purity-gas analyst, conrmed the previous criticism of ice core CO2 studies. He noted that the Knudsen diffusion effect, combined with inward diffusion, is depleting CO2 in ice cores exposed to drastic pressure changes (up to 320 barsmore than 300 times normal atmospheric pressure), and that it minimizes variations and reduces the maximums (Hurd 2006). Science 41

This is illustrated by comparing for the same time period, about 7,000 to 8,000 years before the present, two types of proxy estimates of CO2. The ice core data from the Taylor Dome, Antarctica, which are used to reconstruct the IPCCs ofcial historical record, feature an almost completely at time trend and range, 260 to 264 ppmv (Indermuhle et al. 1999). On the other hand, fossil leaf stomata indices2 show CO2 concentrations ranging widely by more than 50 ppmv, between 270 and 326 ppmv ( Wagner et al. 2002). This difference strongly suggests that ice cores are not a proper matrix for reconstruction of the chemical composition of the ancient atmosphere. The CO2 ice core data are artifacts caused by processes in the ice sheets and in the ice cores, and have concentration values about 30 to 50% lower than in the original atmosphere. Ice is an improper matrix for such chemical studies, and even the most excellent analytical methods cannot be of help when the matrix and samples are wrong. Before basic research on gas differentiation was even started, a plethora of glacier studies on temporal trends of greenhouse gases had been published during past decades, aiming to demonstrate that: 1) these gases are responsible for climatic changes, and 2) that their level in the atmosphere was increased by human activity. These studies are beset with a unilateral interpretation and manipulation of data, and with an arbitrary rejection of both the high greenhouse gas readings from the pre-industrial ice, and the low readings from the contemporary samples (Jaworowski 1994a, Jaworowski et al. 1992b). Were the CO2 ice core data and their interpretation correct, then they should be treated as evidence that during the past 650,000 years, CO2 had no discernible effect on the global temperature. This for two reasons: rst, the temperature increase appears before the claimed increase in CO2; and second, there are monotonically low proxy CO2 levels in the ice cores during the periods of warm climate, both in ancient and modern times. In the ice cores, the isotopically determined temperature signal and the signal of CO2 air concentrations are out of phase by hundreds to several thousands of years (Jaworowski et al. 1992b), with the temperature increases always preceding the rising CO2 levels, not the reverse (Caillon et al. 2003, Fischer et al. 1999, Idso 1988, Indermuhle et al. 2000, Monnin et al. 2001, and Mudelsee 2001). This suggests that the increasing temperature of the atmosphere is the causative factor for CO2 increases, probably via higher erosion of the land and gas exhalation from the warmer ocean. We have observed this in modern times. Solubility of CO2 in warm water is lower than it is in cold. When climate warms, less CO2 can be retained in the upper 3,000-meter layer of oceans, and it is exhaled into the atmosphere, where the CO2
2. Leaf surfaces have stomata, or small pores, which allow carbon dioxide to enter the leaf and oxygen to escape in the process of photosynthesis.

IISD

The co-chairmen of the IPCC Working Group I, in Paris, Feb. 2, after the Summary for Policymakers was approved by the group: Susan Solomon (center) and Dahe Qin (right). At left is Martin Manning, head of the Technical Support Unit.

content is more than 50 times lower than it is in the ocean. This is the reason that between 1880 and 1940, when the global average temperature warmed up by about 0.5C, the direct measurements in the atmosphere registered a very large increase of CO2, from about 290 ppmv in 1885 up to 440 ppmv in 1940about 60 ppmv higher than now (Beck 2007). In this period, the man-made emissions of CO2 increased only by a factor of 5. Then, between 1949 and 1970, the global temperature decreased by about 0.3C, and the atmospheric CO2 level dropped to about 330 ppmv (Boden et al. 1990). Now, when man-made CO2 emissions are 30 times higher than in 1880 (Marland et al. 2006), the CO2 atmospheric level is similar to that recorded before the 1940s climatic warm event. The CO2 concentrations in the air inclusions in ice, which are assumed to be pre-industrial or ancient, are always about 100 ppmv below the current atmospheric level (Indermuhle et al. 1999, Pearman et al. 1986, Petit et al. 1999; see also the review in Jaworowski et al. 1992b). Yet, during the past 420,000 years, the climate was often much warmer than the present, (Andersen et al. 2004, Chumakov 2004, Ruddiman 1985, Shackleton and Opdyke 1973, Zubakov and Borzenkova 1990, and Robin 1985). Even about 120,000 years ago, when the global surface temperature was as much as 5C higher than now (Andersen et al. 2004), the atmospheric CO2 concentration derived from glacier data was only 240 pmmv (Petit et al. 1999)that is, below the current level by some 130 ppmv. More recently, during the Holocene (8,000 to 10,000 years before the present) when the temperature of the Arctic was 5C warmer than now (Brinner and al. 2006), ice core records show a CO2 level of about 260 ppmv (IPCC 2007).
EIR March 16, 2007

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The Hockey Stick Curves

On the basis of assumption piled upon assumption, several versions of CO2 hockey stick curves were compiled, by combining the distorted proxy ice core data and the recent direct atmospheric CO2 measurements. The authors of such studies claimed that their curves represent the atmospheric CO2 levels during the past 300 years (Neftel et al. 1985, Pearman et al. 1986, Siegenthaler and Oeschger 1987), or the past 10,000 years (in the Summary for Policymakers), Figure 1, or even the past 400,000 years (Wolff 2003). They all show low pre-industrial CO2 concentrations, ranging from about 180 to 280 ppmv during the past 400,000 years, and soaring up to about 370 ppmv at the end of the 20th Century. These so-called hockey stick curves were published countless times as a proof of the anthropogenic increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. They were created by illegitimately mixing the false proxy ice core data with direct measurements in the atmosphere. However, the worst manipulation was the arbitrary changing of the age of the gas trapped in the upper part of the core, where the pressure changes were less drastic than in the deeper parts. In this part of the core, taken from Siple, Antarctica, the ice was deposited in the year 1890, and the CO2 concentration in it was 328 ppmv (Friedli et al. 1986, Neftel et al. 1985),

FIGURE 1

and not the 290 ppmv needed to prove the man-made warming hypothesis. The same CO2 concentration of 328 ppmv was measured in the air collected directly from the atmosphere at the Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii, 83 years later in 1973 (Boden et al. 1990). So, it was shockingly clear that the preindustrial level of CO2 was the same as in the second half of the 20th Century. To solve this problem, these researchers simply made an ad hoc assumption: The age of the gas recovered from 1 to 10 grams of ice was arbitrarily decreed to be exactly 83 years younger than the ice in which it was trapped! This was not supported by any experimental evidence, but only by assumptions which were in conict with the facts (Jaworowski 1994a, Jaworowski et al. 1992b). The corrected proxy ice data were then smoothly aligned with the direct atmospheric measurements from Mauna Loa (Figures 2a and 2b). Thus, falsied CO2 hockey stick curves were presented in all the IPCC reports, including Figure 1 in the Summary for Policymakers in 2007. These hockey sticks were credulously accepted by almost everyone, together with other information on greenhouse gases determined in the ice cores, which were plagued by improper manipulation of data, an arbitrary rejection of high readings from old ice, and an arbitrary rejection of the low readings from the young ice, simply because they did not t the preconceived idea of man-made global warming. It is a habit that become all too common in greenhouse gas and other environmental studies (Jaworowski 1994a, Jaworowski 1994b, and Jaworowski et al. 1992b).

The CO2 Hockey Stick Curve

Direct CO2 Measurements in the Atmosphere

We thus nd ourselves in the situation that the entire theory of man-made global warmingwith its repercussions in science, and its important consequences for politics and the global economyis based on ice core studies that provided a false picture of the atmospheric CO2 levels. Meanwhile, more than 90,000 direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere, carried out in America, Asia, and Europe between 1812 and 1961, with excellent chemical methods (accuracy better than 3%), were arbitrarily rejected. These measurements had been published in 175 technical papers. For the past three decades, these well-known direct CO2 measurements, recently compiled and analyzed by Ernst-Georg Beck (Beck 2006a, Beck 2006b, Beck 2007), were completely ignored by climatologistsand not because they were wrong. Indeed, these measurements were made by several Nobel Prize winners, using the techniques that are standard textbook procedures in chemistry, biochemistry, botany, hygiene, medicine, nutrition, and ecology. The only reason for rejection was that these measurements did not t the hypothesis of anthropogenic climatic warming. I regard this as perhaps the greatest scientic scandal of our time. From among this treasure of excellent data (ranging up to 550 ppmv of measured CO2 levels), the founders of the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis (Callendar 1949, Science 43

Source: After IPCC 2007.

A false representation of the CO2 atmospheric concentration trend over the past 10,000 years. Values before 1958 do not represent the atmospheric concentrations, but the artifacts caused by depletion of CO2 from ice, and by arbitrarily changing the age of samples.

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March 16, 2007

FIGURE 2(a) and (b)

Mother of All CO2 Hockey Curves

Concentration (ppm) 350 (a) 340
5 bars

Solubility (%)

Concentration (ppm) 350 (b) 340 330 320

Solubility (%)
Mauna Loa

330 320 310 300

15 bars Mauna Loa

1.5

1.5

310 300

All Siple data shifted 83 years

290 280 270 1661 1708 1756

Siple

290

Siple

4.3 1804 1850 1891 1950 2000

280 270 1661 1744 1756 1804 1850 1891 1950

4.3 2000

Source: Adapted from Friedli et al. 1986 and Neftel et al. 1985.

Concentration of CO2 in air bubbles from the pre-industrial ice from Siple, Antarctica (open squares), and in the 1958-1986 atmosphere at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (solid line). In (a), the original Siple data are given without assuming an 83-year-younger age of air than the age of the enclosing ice. In (b), the same data are shown after an arbitrary correction of the age of air.

Callendar 1958, and Keeling 1986) selected only a tiny fraction of the data and doctored it, to select out the low concentrations and reject the high valuesall in order to set a falsely low pre-industrial average CO2 concentration of 280 ppmv as the basis for all further climatic speculations. This manipulation has been discussed several times since the 1950s (Fonselius et al. 1956, Jaworowski et al. 1992b, and Slocum 1955), and more recently and in-depth by Beck 2007. The results of Ernst-Georg Becks monumental study of a large body of direct atmospheric CO2 measurements from the 19th and 20th Century, smoothed as ve-year averages, are presented in Figure 3. The measurements show that the most important political message of the IPCC in 2007 is wrong: It is not true that the CO2 atmospheric level during the pre-industrial era was about 25% lower than it is now, and it is not true that anthropogenic emissions of CO2 have caused what is actually our benecially warm climate today. Direct atmospheric measurements indicate that between 1812 and 1961, the concentrations of CO2 uctuated by about 150 ppmv, up to values much higher than those of today. Except for the year 1885, these direct measurements were always higher than the ice core data, which are devoid of any variations. During the 149 years from 1812 to 1961, there were three periods when the average CO2 concentration was much higher than it was in 2004, 379 ppmv (IPCC 2007): Around the year 1820, it was about 440 ppmv; around 1855, it was 390 ppmv; and around 1940, it was 440 ppmv. Data compiled by Beck (Beck 2007) suggest also that changes of the CO2 atmospheric concentration followed, rather than preceded, the temperature changes. These ndings make the man-made global warming hypothesis invalid. 44 Science

Anthropogenic Warming That Isnt

The second most important message of the Summary for Policymakers of 2007 is that Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse concentrations. However, neither the Summary for Policymakers document, nor the three former IPCC reports, supported this statement with any convincing scientic evidence. The infamous temperature hockey stick curve, the leading symbol of the IPCC report in 2001, was created to show that the global average temperature in the 1990s was unusual and the highest in the past 1,000 years. The Medieval Warming (the years 950 to 1300), well documented in the former IPCC reports, disappeared from this hockey stick curve, as did the earlier Roman Warm Period (200 B.C. to 600 A.D.), the Holocene Warm Period (8,000 to 5,000 years before the present), and the deep cooling of the Little Ice Age (the years 1350 to 1850)Figure 4. The fraudulence of this hockey stick curve was documented by Legates 2002, Legates 2003, McIntyre and McKitrick 2003, Soon 2003, Soon and Baliunas 2003, and Soon et al. 2003. But criticism of the IPCC 2001 hockey stick curve of temperature appeared to be a mine eld: The six editors of the journal Climate Research who dared to publish the Soon and Baliunas 2003 paper were red by the publisher. In the Summary for Policymakers 2007 report, the IPCC truncated its original 1,000-year-long hockey stick temperature curve by a factor of 10, starting it at 1850, exactly at the time when the Earths climate began to recover by natural forces from the Little Ice Age, when the emissions of CO2 had been EIR March 16, 2007

FIGURE 3

First Reconstruction of Trends in CO2 Atmospheric Concentration Based on Actual Measurement

Source: Adapted from Beck 2007.

This rst reconstruction of trends in CO2 concentration in the Northern Hemisphere is based on more than 90,000 direct chemical measurements in the atmosphere at 43 stations, between 1812 and 2004. The lower line are the values from Antarctic ice core artifacts. The diamonds on the lower line (after 1958) are infrared CO2 measurements in air from Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

FIGURE 4

Global Temperature Variations for Last 10,000 Years

Holocene warming Medieval warming Roman warming Little Ice Age

Temperature change (C)

Ice Age

10,000

8,000

6,000 Years before present

4,000

2,000

Source: IPCC 1990.

The dotted line represents temperature near the beginning of the 20th Century. In its 2001 and 2007 reports, the IPCC ignored the earlier parts of this curve, presenting only the modern warming.

135 times lower than they are now (Marland et al. 2006). This natural recovery from the Little Ice Age is interpreted by the IPCC as a man-made calamity; the IPCC regards the last 50 years as the warmest in the past 1,300 years because EIR March 16, 2007

of fossil fuel burning. This monothematic line of thinking does not take into account the astronomical evidence that these last 50 years have had the highest solar activity of the past several thousand years. There has not been an equally Science 45

some parts of Milky Way), more cosmic radiation penetrates into the tropoSolar Activity Represented by Sunspot Number During the sphere, and more clouds are formed, Past 11,400 Years which act as an umbrella to protect the Years before present Earth against irradiance by the Sun. 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Recently, experimental evidence was provided for a mechanism by which 100 cosmic rays can affect the cloud cover (Svensmark 2007). This cover exerts a strong cooling effect, which offers a mechanism for solar-driven climate change that is much more powerful than 50 the small 0.1% variations in the solar irradiance. According to Khilyuk and Chilingar (2006), the total anthropogenic CO2 0 emission throughout human history constitutes less than 0.00022% of the Source: Sunspot data from Solanki et al. 2004; cosmic ray flux from Usoskin et al. 2003. total CO2 amount naturally degassed from the mantle of the Earth during geological history. Anthropogenic CO2 The solar activity represented by sunspot number reconstructed from carbon-14 data for emission is negligible in any energythe years 11,000 before the present, and from telescopic observations since the year 1610. The level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptionally high. The previous high matter transformation processes changactivity occurred more than 8,000 years ago. ing the Earths climate. The forces of Fluctuations of solar activity are followed by cosmic ray ux, the lower energy nature that are driving the climate (solar fraction of which is presently 40% lower than in 1900. There is a general similarity irradiation, uctuating along with solar between the Sunspot number and temperature uctuations: Both show a slowly decreasing activity and orbital deviations, outgastrend just prior to 1900, followed by a steep rise that is unprecedented during the last millennium. sing, and microbial activities) are 4 to 5 orders of magnitude greater than the corresponding anthropogenic impacts high activity of the Sun since more than 8,000 years ago on the Earths climate (such as heating and emission of green(Figure 5), and the Sun has been the dominant cause of the house gases), even without accounting for the cosmic ray strong warming during the past three decades (Solanki et al. inuences. 2004). Human beings may be responsible for less than 0.01C of warming during the last century; the hypothesis that the currently observed Modern Warming is a result of anthroCosmoclimatology: Cosmic Rays and The Sun Rule the Climate pogenic CO2, and of other greenhouse gas emissions, is a For about the past 15 years, we have had a rapid developmyth. ment of a new scientic eld: cosmoclimatology. It was The cosmoclimatic factors account for climate uctuastarted by a seminal paper by Friis-Christensen and Lassen in tions on the decadal, centennial, and millennial timescales. 1991, in which they documented a close relationship between During the Little Ice Age (1350 to 1850) the exceptionally solar activity and the surface temperature of the Earth. (This weak solar magnetic eld of the Sun, reected by an exdevelopment was reviewed by Svensmark in 2007.) Later tremely low sunspot number during the Maunder Minimum studies demonstrated that the main mechanism by which cos(1645 to 1715), coincided with its coldest phase. Another mic factors regulate our weather are cosmic rays penetrating sunspot minimum, the Dalton Minimum of the early 19th the Earths atmosphere. Their ux is determined by uctuaCentury, was associated with another cold phase. tions of magnetic elds of the Sun and by the Solar System On the other hand, the Medieval Warm and the Modern migration over the varying environments of the Milky Way, Warm periods showed excellent matches with the low cosmic with different concentration of dust and activity of novas. ray intensities, governed by solar cycles. During the past sevThe variations of cosmic-ray ux are an order of magnieral 10,000s to 6,000 years, temperature events corresponded tude greater than those caused by the Sun. Cosmic rays rule well to solar perturbations, suggesting that the driving force the climate by producing an ionization of air molecules at of the Holocene temperature uctuations was caused by solar the rate required to have a measurable impact on climate. activity, and related to this, by cosmic ray ux (Bashkirtsev Ionization helps to create condensation nuclei in the tropoand Mashnich 2003, Dergachev and Rasporov 2000, Friissphere, needed for cloud formation. At low solar activity (or in Christensen and Lassen 1991, Marsh and Svensmark 2000,
FIGURE 5

46

Sunspot number

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March 16, 2007

FIGURE 6

FIGURE 7

Average Northern Hemisphere Temperature

9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3
Solar cycle length

Average Surface Temperature in Antarctica (1800-1999)

Temperature changes (C)

0.3 0.2
Average temperature (C)

0.2 0 0.2 0.4 1800

CO2 ppm

Temperature in Antarctica

0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7

CO2 in atmosphere

1850

1900 Year

1950

2000

Source: Upper line, from Schneider et al. 2006; lower line from Beck 2007 and NOAA 2006.

0.5 11.9 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Source: After Friis-Christensen and Lassen 1991.

The average Northern Hemisphere temperature (gray line)follows almost exactly the solar activity reected by the length of the sunspot cycle (black line).

The upper line represents the average surface temperatures at ve locations in Antarctica between 1800 and 1999, as reconstructed from stable isotope measurements of ice. The lower line represents direct CO2 measurements in the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere. The dashed line are data from Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Svensmark and Friis-Christensen 1997, Xu et al. 2005, Xu et al. 2006, Bago and Buttler 2000, and Soon et al. 2000), rather than by CO2 changes, which lag behind the temperature changes, and appear to be an effect, not the cause of temperature variations (Figure 6). Over the longer intervals, the changing galactic environment of the Solar System had dramatic consequences in the past, including Snowball Earth episodes (2,300 million and 700 million years ago), when all the Earth was frozen. The climate uctuated rather regularly throughout the past 3 billion years of the Earths history, evolving gradually towards cooling and the increased frequency, duration, and scale of glaciation (Chumakov 2004). Periodic climatic changes, recognizable by geological methods, can be divided into ve categories: 1) super-long uctuations (approximately 150 million years); 2) long uctuations (a few to 15 million years); 3) middle uctuations (1 million to about 10 million years); 4) short uctuations (few tens to hundreds of thousands of years); and 5) ultra-short uctuations (millennial, centennial, and shorter). During the Phanerozoic Era (the past 545 million years) the Earth passed through four super-long climate cycles, probably related to the cosmic ray ux changes, caused by passages of the Solar System through various environments of the spiral arms of the Milky Way (Shaviv and Veizer 2003). The temperature uctuations during the Phanerozoic varied in accordance with the cosmic ray ux, but revealed no relationship to CO2 content in the atmosphere. Two long and extensive glaciations occurred in this period, at the time of EIR March 16, 2007

CO2 minima, at about 300 million years before the present, and were interpreted as an indication that the CO2 atmospheric greenhouse effect was a principal control of climate over geologic time (Berner 1998). However, long and extensive glaciations also existed twice, between 353 and 444 million years ago, when the CO2 level in the atmosphere was up to 7 and 17 times higher than today (Chumakov 2004). The paleogeographic studies provided proxy data on global climatic gradients in the Phanerozoic (Berner 1997), which show no relationship with the CO2 atmospheric concentration estimated by Boucot et al. in 2004. Assigning a long-term principal control of climate to trace concentrations of a single agent, the CO2 gas, which currently contributes about 2% to the total greenhouse effect (Lindzen 1991), and neglecting the 98% contribution of water, and the contribution from the other factors listed below, conicts with the cosmoclimatic data. The temperature uctuations in ve Antarctic regions, reconstructed from the ice core stable isotope records between 1800 and 1999, are similar to the CO2 uctuations measured directly in the atmosphere since 1812 (Figure 7). According to the IPCC, the highest rise of temperature caused by the emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, should occur in Antarctica and the Arctic. These predictions do not t the temperature data in Figure 7, which, according to Schneider et al. 2006, are also representative for the whole Southern Hemisphere. In Antarctica, the temperature in the 1990s was lower than during many decades in the past two centuries, and much lower than the mean for 1961 to 1990, represented by the zero line. In the northern part of the Earth, direct temperature meaScience 47

FIGURE 8

Direct Temperatures in Greenland Bore Hole for Last 10,000 Years

Past surface temperatures (C)

30

32
These are direct temperatures measured in a bore hole in the Greenland ice sheet, over the last 8,000 years. Ice conducts heat very badly, and its original temperature is retained for thousands of years. Visible are the Holocene warming (3,500-7,000 years ago), and in our epoch, the Middle Ages warming (900-1,100 years ago), and the Little Ice Age (1350 to 1880). The temperature 1,000 years ago was higher there than today by 1C.

34

8,000

6,000

4,000 Years before present

2,000

Source: After Dahl-Jensen et al. 1998.

surements in the boreholes at the Summit and Dye sites in Greenland (Figure 8) demonstrated that during the last 8,000 years, the temperature in the Arctic uctuated similarly as the proxy global temperature reconstructed in the IPCC 1990 report (Figure 4), and that at the end of 20th Century, the temperature in the Arctic was lower than during the Medieval and Holocene Warmings. The proxy temperature reconstruction spanning nearly 2,500 years at Taimyr Peninsula in Russia (poleward of 70 N) revealed also the Holocene, Medieval, and Modern Warmings, with the rst two warmer than the 20th Century one, in which the temperature peak appeared around 1940 (Naurzbayev et al. 2002). Instrumental measurements of surface air temperature in the Arctic were started in 1874 in Greenland, followed by stations at Spitsbergen, Canada, and Russia. Since that year, until about 2000, the highest temperature at 37 Arctic and 6 sub-Arctic stations was observed in the 1930s, and was higher by about 2 to 5C than those occurring prior to the 1920s. Even in the 1950s, the temperature in the Arctic was higher than in the 1990s. In Greenland, the level of temperature in the 1980s and in the 1990s was similar to that observed in the 19th Century (Przybylak 2000). Other instrumental records covering the last 100 years demonstrate similar temperature uctuations in the Arctic. According to Chylek et al. (2004), instrumental temperature measurements in Greenland show that the highest tempera48 Science

ture there occurred in the 1920s, when in less than ten years it increased by 2-4C, and at some stations even by 6C. At that time, the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 were nine times lower than now (Marland et al. 2006). Since 1940, however, the Greenland coastal data have predominantly undergone cooling. At the summit of the Greenland ice sheet, the summer average temperature has decreased at a rate of 2.2C per decade, since the beginning of measurements in 1987. Similar results are reported for Arctic temperature measurements carried out between 1875 and 2000 (Polyakov et al. 2003). This is against all the predictions of climate models. The disparity between the tropospheric and surface temperature trends measured by balloons and satellites, and the greenhouse models predictions, was recently discussed by S. Fred Singer in a letter rejected by Nature, and published on Feb. 13, 2007 on http://blogs.nature.com/news/blog/2007/ 02/climate_report.html. As stated by Singer, Greenhouse models indicate that the tropics provide the most sensitive location for their validation: trends there [should] increase strongly with altitude, peaking at around 10 kilometers. Actual observations, however, show the opposite: at or even decreasing tropospheric trend. This comparison of models with balloon and satellite data, contradicts the most important conclusion of IPCC that the current warming is very likely the result of human activities. EIR March 16, 2007

The Specter of Floods

The most trendy adverse effect of climate warming is the melting of the polar ice sheets, which, it is claimed, will cause catastrophic ooding of vast areas. From among a host of recent papers presenting evidence against these gloomy prophesies, I will refer only to a paper by my friend H. Jay Zwally, from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, who for decades has used satellite techniques to measure the mass of the polar ice sheets. In his paper (Zwally et al. 2005), he presents the study of changes in ice mass derived from 10.5 years (Greenland) and 9 years (Antarctica) of satellite radar altimetry data. Zwally et al. show that the Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (42 Gt per year) and growing inland (+53 Gt per year). This corresponds to a sea level decrease of 0.03 mm per year. In West Antarctica, the ice sheet is losing mass (at 47 Gt per year), and in East Antarctica, it is gaining mass (+16 Gt per year). The combined net change of 31 Gt, corresponds to +0.08 mm per year of sea-level rise. Hence, they report, the contribution of the three ice sheets to sea Courtesy of Zbigniew Jaworowski level is +0.05 mm per year. The author (right) working with ion exchange columns in a During the period studied, the Antarctic Western Ice Shelf laboratory tent at Kahiltna Glacier, Alaska, 1977. changed its mass by 95 Gt per year, and the Eastern one changed by +142 Gt per year (together their mass increased by 47 Gt per year). The contribution of polar ice of 0.05 mm record any signicant rise in sea level at the Maldives. Some per year to sea-level rise is small, in comparison to the real 100 to 30 years ago, the sea level was 20 to 30 cm higher sea-level rise observed from satellite altimetry of 2.8 mm per than it is today. There is rm evidence that the sea level year. The ice sheets contribution would take 1,000 years to raise global sea level by just 5 cm, and it would take 20,000 years to raise it 1 meter. People are frustrated by the prospect of FIGURE 9 ooding the Pacic and Indian Ocean islands by Sea-Level Changes in Maldives our sinful activity. A good example of the futility of such fears is the beautiful archipelago of the Maldives in the central Indian Ocean, which con5,000 3,000 1,000 sists of some 1,200 individual islands, grouped in about 20 larger atolls. They rise from a depth of about 2,500 meters, and consist of coral reefs, + 1m coral reef debris, and coral sand. Their elevation is only 1 to 2 meters. Hence, they have been condemned to disappear in the sea in the near future (IPCC 2001). 1m Multiple geomorphological and sedimentological investigations, and satellite altimetry measurements by Morner et al. (2004) contradict this dire hypothesis. The islands existed prior to the last glaciation maximum, and have been Source: After Morner et al. 2004. inhabited for at least 1,500 years before the present. During this period, at around 1,000 to 800 Shown are the sea level changes in the Maldive Islands during the past 5,000 years before the present, that is, during the Mediyears. The sea level was above the present one at 3,900 years before the present eval Warming, the inhabitants survived a sea (about 1 meter), at 2,700 years before the present (about 0.1 to 0.2 meter), at level that was some 50 to 60 cm higher than it 1,000 (about 0.5 meter), and most recently between the years 1900 and 1970 is now (Figure 9). During the past decades, both (about 0.2 to 0.3 meter). During the last 30 years, the sea level fell by about 30 cm. the satellite altimetry and gauge records do not EIR March 16, 2007 Science 49

fell there by 20 to 30 cm in the last 30 years, contrary to IPCC expectations.

FIGURE 10

Average Northern Hemisphere Temperature

The Near Future

During the past 2 million years, there have been some 20 Ice Ages, each Medieval Warm lasting about 100,000 years, interPeriod spersed with warm interglacials, the du+2 ration of which was only about 10,000 years. The last Ice Age came to its end about 10,500 years ago; thus, our present interglacial seems to be a bit longer +1 than average. The new Ice Age looms in waiting, and whether it comes in decades, centuries, or even a millennium, Present is a matter of speculation. It seems that 0 its inescapable advent will be induced by natural cosmic factors rather than by Little Ice Age terrestrial ones. The hypothesis, in vogue in the 1970s, stating that emis1 sions of industrial dust will soon induce the new Ice Age, seem now to be a conceited anthropocentric exaggeration, bringing into discredit the science of 2 1000 1200 1400 that time. The same fate awaits the pres1600 2000 1800 2100 Years ent CO2 folly. Using a novel multi-timescale analysis method to diagnose the variation of This is a simplied graph of global atmospheric temperature change over the last 1,000 years, using data from Khilyuk and Chilingar 2006. The temperature projection (dotted the annual mean global Northern Hemiline) is based on data in this present paper. sphere and Chinese temperature data from 1881 to 2002, Zhen-Shan and Xian (2007) found four different quasiperiodic oscillations, among which the 60-year timescale osvatory, near St. Petersburg, Russia. The head of the Space cillation of temperature was the most prominent. Despite the Research Laboratory of the Observatory, Prof. Habibullo I. increasing trend in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, the Abdussamatov, stated that instead of professed global warmpattern of the 60-year temperature oscillation is in a descent. ing, the Earth will be facing a slow decrease in temperatures in 2012-15. The gradual cooling will reach its maximum by The authors concluded that the atmospheric CO2 concentration is not the key determinant of periodic variation of the 2040, and lead to a deep freeze around 2050 to 2060. This global temperature, that the CO2 greenhouse effect has been period of global freeze will last some 50 years, and will be excessively exaggerated, and that it is high time to reconsider comparable to the cooling that took place during the Little Ice the trend of global climate changes. Their analysis suggests Age in 1645-1715, when the temperature decreased by 1-2C that the global climate will be cooling in the next 20 years. (Abdussamatov 2004, Abdussamatov 2005, and AbdussamaThis conclusion is in agreement with the projections of tov 2006). Russian astronomers from the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial A similar impending cooling, with two new Little Ice Physics in Irkutsk, who, from an analysis of the sunspot cycles Ages around 2100 and 2200, was envisaged by the late Prof. for the period 1882-2000, deduced that the minimum of the Theodor Landsheidt, founder of the Schroeter Institute for secular cycle of solar activity will fall in the next cycle, in Research in Cycles of Solar Activity in Germany (Land2021-26, which will result in the minimum global temperascheidt 1995 and Landscheidt 2003). ture of the surface air (Bashkirtsev and Mashnich 2003). They During the past 3,000 years, one can observe a clear coolfound also that the temperature response of the air lags behind ing trend in the Earths climate (Keigwin et al. 1994, and the sunspot cycles by about three years in Irkutsk, and by two Khilyuk and Chilingar 2006). During this period, the global years over the entire globe. temperature deviations were 3C, with a trend of decreasing A similar projection, based on observations of the cyclic global temperature of about 2C. As Khilyuk and Chilingar activity of the Sun, was announced from the Pulkovo Obserstated: This cooling tendency will probably last in the future. 50 Science
Global temperature differences compared to present (C)

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March 16, 2007

We live in the cooling geologic period and the global warming observed during the last approximately 150 years is just a short episode in the geologic history. This is reected in Figure 10. Not man, but nature rules the climate. The Kyoto Protocol and the IPCC reports, tuned by Malthusian ideas, may surely make a lot of noise and cause enormous harm for the global economy and for the well-being of billions of people. But they can do nothing for the climate. This we shall learn in the near future.

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