Introduction To Probability
Introduction To Probability
Introduction To Probability
Objectives: Given the elementary building blocks and vocabulary necessary to understand and compute probability problems, students will solve basic probability problems.
Materials:
crayons Anticipatory Set: Students will write down the definitions of "Experiment" "Fair" "Sample Space" "Outcome" and "Tree Diagram" Teacher will perform examples of each of these definitions. o o o o o Procedures: After the definitions are given, teacher will give out the basic formula for probability o P(A)= (Number of ways an event can occur) / (The total number of possible outcomes) Teacher will go through 3 examples: P(Tails on a coin), P(Green Marbles), and P(Multiple of 3 on a die). Have students get into groups of 4. Draw the tree diagram for an experiment where a coin is flipped. Draw the tree diagram for an experiment where a coin is flipped and then another coin is flipped Draw the tree diagram for an experiment where a coin is flipped and then a dice is rolled. Find the probability for each section by multiplying the probability of the first thing by the probability of the second thing. Pass out coins and dice. Trace the probability paths that happened for your group Closure: After we discuss the results, students will have any remaining class time to work on homework and ask questions. Assessment: Homework will be collected and graded Students will be monitored for participation and comprehension Homework: Worksheet #20, Probability Problems Related Standards/Course Objectives: 12.6 - The student will find theoretical and experimental probabilities of simple and compound events. o NV 5.12.5 - Determine the probability of an event with and without replacement using sample spaces. o NV 5.12.5 - Design, conduct, analyze, and effectively communicate the results of multi-stage probability experiments. 12.5 - The student will distinguish among the various terms and symbols used to describe probability. Experiment: flip a coin, roll a die Fair: flip a coin for fair, flip a two-headed coin for unfair Sample Space: show all of the possible outcomes for a die Outcome: roll the die and show that the outcome is . . . a six or whatever Tree diagram: draw a tree diagram on the board for a die roll; then draw a tree diagram on the board for a coin flip and then a spinning a spinner with 4 options.
Probability worksheet #21 Anticipatory Set: When there are M ways to do one thing, and N ways to do another, then there are MxN ways of doing both. Give illustrated car example (via PPT or a Printout) Procedures: After opening segment, teacher will lead a class discussion on sample space and the Fundamental Counting Principle. Beginning with Fundamental Counting Principle Visual, teacher will point out the Fundamental Counting Principle is used and describe what it is used for. Teacher will walk through the first couple of examples as students copy the examples into their notebook. The teacher will relate it to probability and the way that it connects to the coin/dice examples from yesterday. Then students will work examples on their own with teacher guidance if needed. Formative assessments will be conducted throughout the given examples by teacher as he/she walks around classroom helping students. Students will then use the sample space to find probabilities of different events. Closure: After giving some examples, students will be given time to work on their homework, and I will circulate around the room with some realia and help when needed. Assessment: Students will be assessed on their performance on Worksheet #22 and their participation in class. Homework: Probability Worksheet #21 Related Standards/Course Objectives: 12.1 - The student will calculate the number of ways a compound event may occur using the fundamental counting principles. o NV 5.12.4 - Apply permutations and combinations to mathematical and practical situations, including the Fundamental Counting Principle. 12.5 - The student will distinguish among the various terms and symbols used to describe probability.
Deck of Cards
Probability Worksheet #22 Anticipatory Set: Teacher will ask a student to pick a card, any card For example, the student pulls out an ace of spades Students will determine the probability of picking an ace of spaces is 1/52 with the formula from the other day The student will then replace the card and have another student pick a card. For example, the student picks a 4 of clubs. Without replacing, another student gets ready to draw a card. What is the probability that the second student picks a 4?
There will be a short classroom discussion about the answer. Procedures: Teacher will give each student a mini bag of M&Ms Each student will open their bag of M&Ms and count them Each student will determine the total for each color in the bag Students will then place all of the M&Ms in the bag and pick one randomly Students will determine the probability of picking that color Students can eat that M&M Now determine the probability for picking that same color.
Students will now determine the probability for picking all of the colors to end the exercise Closure: Students can spend the remaining time starting their homework. Assessment: Homework will be collected and assessed Classwork will be collected and assessed
Students will be assessed on their participation and perceived comprehension Homework: Probability #22 Related Standards/Course Objectives: 12.5 - The student will distinguish among the various terms and symbols used to describe probability. 12.1 - The student will calculate the number of ways a compound event may occur using the fundamental counting principles. o NV 5.12.4 - Apply permutations and combinations to mathematical and practical situations, including the Fundamental Counting Principle. 12.6 - The student will find theoretical and experimental probabilities of simple and compound events. o NV 5.12.5 - Determine the probability of an event with and without replacement using sample spaces. o NV 5.12.5 - Design, conduct, analyze, and effectively communicate the results of multi-stage probability experiments.