Alliance Bernstein Hybrids June06nhiuhiu

The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles
Ending Oils Stranglehold on Transportation and the Economy

Research Conclusions
Hybrid vehicles will significantly reduce transportation-related oil demand. Hybrid power will make cars faster, cleaner and safer, as well as more fuel efficient. The next step for hybrid vehicles will be plug-ins. With plug-ins, electricity rather than oil will be the primary energy source for transportation. Technology and utility companies will gain most; oil-related firms will lose most; leadership in hybrids will be key to success in the auto industry.
Research on Strategic Change

JU NE 2006
About the Authors Amy Raskin DirectorResearch on Strategic Change Ms. Raskin assumed her responsibilities in the Research on Strategic Change group in 2003. She is also an analyst covering networking and telecom equipment in the Alliance Growth Equity research team and a member of the Investment Policy Group for US Strategic Research. Prior to joining Alliance Capital in 2000, Ms. Raskin worked as a telecom-equipment analyst for Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, as an investment banking associate for Lehman Brothers and as a telecommunications products manager at JPMorgan. She has a BS in engineering from the University of Pennsylvania. Saurin Shah Equity AnalystResearch on Strategic Change Mr. Shah joined our rm in 2005 as an analyst in the Research on Strategic Change group. Previously, he was a strategy consultant at Booz Allen Hamilton, an investment banker at Deutsche Bank and a senior emerging markets analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Earlier in his career, he held positions in global economic research at JPMorgan and the International Monetary Fund. He has an MBA from Columbia Business School, an MIA from the School of International and Public Affairs of Columbia University and a BA from Johns Hopkins University.
About Research on Strategic Change Most fundamental research analysts cover an industry and the companies within it. AllianceBernsteins Research on Strategic Change group seeks to nd investable ideas that stem from economic or technological changes powerful enough to profoundly inuence corporate performance across multiple industries. The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles: Ending Oils Stranglehold on Transportation and the Economy is the groups fourth report. Prior publications include Broadband: The Revolution Underway, 2004; China: Is the World Really Prepared?, 2004; and The New Industrial Revolution: De-verticalization on a Global Scale, 2005.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary Introduction Transportation Transitions: A History Britains Transition to Oil The Rise of Electricity Electricity in Transportation Oil Demand Yesterday and Tomorrow Forecasting Oil Demand for Vehicles Hybrids Emerge Is Diesel an Attractive Alternative? Hybrid Basics Hybrid Variations Compatibility with Other Technologies Other Hybrids: Buses, Trucks and Military Vehicles The Case for Mass Adoption of Hybrids Lessons from History Surmounting the Price Premium Hybrids and Performance The Impact of Public Policy Hybrid System Components Battery Systems and Related Electrical Systems Electric Motors and Generators Power-Split Devices Electronics (Power, Control and Other) Electrification of the Automobile Implications of Hybrids for Oil Demand Plug-in Hybrids: The Revolution Continues Fuel-Efficiency Benefits Other Benefits Current Status Is the Fuel-Cell Alternative Commercially Viable? Geo-Political Consequences Investment Implications Endnotes 1 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 19 20 22 25 25 27 27 28 30 32 36 36 37 38 39 40 41 48
AllianceBernstein Research on Strategic Change
Executive Summary
The world is on the cusp of a major transition to hybridpower vehicles, which use highly efcient electric
Comparison of Oil Demand Forecast Assumptions for Light-Duty Vehicles

(Display 8, page 10) 2002 Installed Base (Millions) x Avg. Annual Miles per Vehicle 10,000 5,000 0 60 30 0 40 20 0 IEA 50.0 23.1 23.5 25.1 1,500 750 0 2010E 2030E
motors to boost the fuel efciency of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. This is a game-changing technology that promises to increase energy efciency substantially, make a broad range of fuels available for powering vehicles, and meaningfully reduce demand for oil from the transportation sector.
Over the last 30 years, many industries have either dramatically improved their energy efciency or shifted to alternative fuel sources; transportation has been an exception. As
Avg. Miles per Gallon
a result, the composition of oil consumption has shifted dramatically toward transportation, from 33% of total oil demand in 1971 to about 50% today. Light-duty vehicles (passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles, minivans and light trucks) account for more than 45% of the transport sectors total oil consumption. With the emergence of hybrid vehicles, the end of rapid demand growth from this segment is in sight.
Improvements in vehicle fuel efciency, owing to hybrid power trains, will eventually more than offset continued growth in the global stock of vehicles (Display), despite surging vehicle ownership in the emerging world. Our estimates of improved fuel efciency and rapid adoption of hybrid vehicles lead us to estimate that global oil demand from cars and other light-duty vehicles will rst rise slightly, to 21.5 million barrels per day in 2010, and then fall to 16.1 million by 2030. Our forecast for 2030 is 50% lower than the International Energy Associations. If plug-in hybrid vehicles, which can be recharged by plugging into an ordinary electrical outlet, are quickly commercialized and adopted, the gain in fuel efciency would be even greater. Mass consumer penetration of hybrid vehicles will occur due to the superiority of these vehicles rather than an explicit effort to reduce oil consumption. In addition to increasing fuel
Total (Millions of Barrels per Day)
21.8 21.5
32.1 16.1
Installed base, sales and mpg estimates are derived from the IEA/SMP base case model, in which the IEA/SMP held vehicle miles traveled constant for 30 years. In order to correlate these estimates to subsequent references from the agency, AllianceBernstein estimated the increase in this variable. Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) and AllianceBernstein
vehicles, hybrids offer faster acceleration, lower emissions and the ability to more easily integrate a host of desirable safety and luxury electronic systems. High oil prices and fear of oil scarcity, as well as tax incentives and other policy measures, are likely to speed adoption, but will by no means be the only factors driving their success.
Hybrid technology is already commercially available. Toyota Motors is the clear leader, but within a few years, all major automakers will offer hybrid vehicles. In the near term, we expect most automakers to offer hybridization as an option. In time, there are likely to be a wide range of vehicles designed to make the most of hybrids strengths. Our research suggests that manufacturers will be able to adapt much of their existing capacity to produce hybrid vehicles with fairly limited additional expense.
economy by 20% to 80% over comparable conventional
We expect the number of hybrid vehicles to grow rapidly
over the next decade because hybrids offer a more attractive set of benets than the alternatives. Unlike conventional diesel vehicles, hybrids improve both performance and fuel efciency, and will not soon face tough challenges from clean air regulations in many regions. Unlike biofuel vehicles, hybrids do not require special pumps at refueling stations. Unlike all-electric vehicles, they do not limit driving range.
Gasoline-electric hybrids have just two weaknesses: load capacity and initial cost. Load capacity is an important
Development of high-energy batteries is likely to spur the commercialization of plug-ins capable of signicant electric driving range. Unlike fuel-cell technology, which our
research suggests is at least 15 years away from mass commercialization, plug-in technology has largely been developed.
The fuel-efciency gains from plug-ins would be enormous for those people who typically drive only short distances each dayand could have dramatic implications for overall oil demand. Some 40% of Americans travel 20 miles or
concern for pick-ups and heavy trucks; over time, a diesel hybrid could emerge for these segments. We expect costs for this new technologylike so many othersto fall signicantly as economies of scale set in, to approximately $2,000 per vehicle by 2010.
The shift to transportation systems largely powered by electricity will be the next phase in the broad transition away from relatively inefcient mechanical systems. The primary
less per day; about 60% travel 30 miles or less per day. If these people could buy plug-in hybrids that could go 20 to 30 miles on the electric motor before recharging, they would almost never have to use gasoline for routine driving. However, they would still have the internal combustion engine for the occasional longer trip.
If most consumers recharge the batteries in their plug-in vehicles from the electrical grid, the fuel ultimately powering their vehicle is likely to be coal, natural gas or uranium, rather than oil. Such exibility would be truly game-
limitations on electric-powered transportation to date has been the size and weight of the batteries needed to store power for free-roaming vehicles, and the semiconductor technology necessary to efciently manage the ow of voltage. Continuing technological advances in both of these arenas will only improve the outlook for hybrids.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are likely to arrive as an extension of the hybrids available today. Like the latter,
changing. Economic growth, which is inextricably linked to transportation, could be almost entirely decoupled from oil. This could reshape the foreign policies of such oil-importing countries and regions as the US, Japan, Western Europe, China and India. The economic and political implications for the few oil-rich exporting nations, by contrast, are likely to be grim. Indeed, the transition to hybrid power could change the world!
The investment implications of the transition to hybrid vehicles are straightforward. The industries most affected will
plug-ins are powered by both liquid fuel (gasoline or diesel) and batteries. But in addition to being charged by the gasoline engine and regenerative braking, plugin hybrids may be recharged by plugging into standard electric outlets.
be automakers and their traditional suppliers, electronic and semiconductor companies, electric utilities, and oil and gas producers.

Ending Oils Stranglehold on Transportation and the Economy
Amy Raskin DirectorResearch on Strategic Change Saurin Shah AnalystResearch on Strategic Change
INTRODUCTION
We are facing an unprecedented problem. World oil production has stopped growing We have already found most of the oil.
Kenneth Deffeyes Beyond Oil, The View from Hubberts Peak, 2005
Will there be enough oil? More than 35 years ago, Marion King Hubbert, a widely respected geologist who spent decades in research at Shell Oil, estimated that global oil production would peak in the year 2000and then decline at an accelerating pace as pressure dropped in partially depleted oil basins.1 Last year, using improved technology and methodology to estimate total global reserves, Hubberts former colleague Kenneth Deffeyes estimated that global production would reach Hubberts peak in 2005 or early 2006.2 Not all geologists agree. There are arguments over methodology, and some geologists estimate that global oil production may not peak for two or three decadesand that existing global oil reserves wont be depleted until 2100.3 Nonetheless, anxiety surrounding impending shortages of oil has mounted, contributing to an 80% rise in the price of the commodity between December 2004 and May 2006. If Hubbert and Deffeyes are even roughly correct, the economic outlook is indeed grimif the world remains reliant on oil for transportation. But humankind has averted many resource shortages that were expected to be equally disastrous. In 1798, after a period of rapid population growth in Europe, Thomas Malthus predicted an unending cycle of poverty and misery due to food supply growing arithmetically, while food demand grew geometrically with population.4 Malthus, an economist, did not foresee the technological advances in farming, storage and transport of food that would later allow rapid growth in food supply.
Its going to be very difcult to get gasoline for transport. Food is not going to be getting through in enough quantities to the shops.
Jeremy Leggett Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis, 2005
The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human racewar...pestilence or famine [will] level the population with the food of the world.
Thomas Malthus An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1789
No wood, no kingdom.
Advisors to King James I, circa 1620
In about 1620, advisors to King James I of England warned that a coming shortage of wood would be catastrophic. At the time, wood was crucial for building shelter, ships and wagons, for home heating, and for fueling glass and metal production.5 King James advisors summed up the warning as No wood, no kingdom.6 Not long thereafter, Britons discovered how to use their countrys abundant local coal deposits as a substitute fuel, and England went on to become a great industrial power and a vast empire. In both cases, technological innovations led to sustainable transitions in basic economic functions and contributed to more efcient ways of accomplishing tasks, while averting potentially dire resource shortages. Our research shows that the world, once again, is on the cusp of a major and sustainable transition, thanks to technological innovation: namely, the transition to hybridpower vehicles, which use electric motors to boost the fuel efciency of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. This is a game-changing technology that could dramatically reduce oil demand from the transportation sector in our lifetimes. This is no pie-in-the-sky dream. Hybrid vehicles already roam our streets and highways, offering strong performance, as well as greatly improved fuel efciency and cleaner emissions. We expect this transition to occur because hybrid vehicles are a better, more convenient technology. Right now, they cost consumers $4,000 to $9,000 more upfront than comparable conventional vehicles, but mass production and further technological renements should rapidly reduce their current price premium.
Lower prices, in turn, would make them more economically attractive for the average consumer and speed their adoption. High oil pricesand fear of oil scarcitymay also speed adoption of hybrid technology, even before enhancements such as home-rechargeable batteries make hybrids even more convenient. In this report, we examine why hybrid vehicles are likely to replace traditional cars and light trucks, and how the transition is likely to unfold. We also examine the transformational potential of this transportation transition. While we dont predict anything quite as dramatic as war, pestilence or famine, we do foresee signicant outcomes for both the global economy and the global balance of powerand sweeping investment implications that extend well beyond the oil and auto industries.
Note: Since hybrids represent a new era in automotive development, at times we delve into signicant detail about their technology and components. Some readers may choose to skip the more technical sections, most notably Hybrids and Performance and Hybrid System Components. Other readers may want to dig into the technology, but skip some of the historical or policy discussions, such as Britains Transition to Oil or The Impact of Public Policy. To the extent possible, we have written the report to facilitate such choices.
Also note that to enhance readability, we have placed footnotes that elaborate on an ideausually marked with asterisksat the bottom of the page (or the bottom of a box within a page). Numbered references to sources, however, are provided in the Endnotes on page 48.
TRANSPORTATION TRANSITIONS: A HISTORY

Although it is difcult today to envision a world not reliant upon oil for transportation, oil-powered transportation is just a century old. Over the millennia, humankind has made several epochal transportation shifts. Initially, of course, people traveled on their own two feet and carried their own cargo. By 4500 B.C., people began to harness the physical power of wind to propel rafts and ships on local journeys and between continents. By 3000 B.C., people began to harness the physical power of animals: horses for passenger travel and mules or oxen for carrying bulk materials (Display 1). In 1800 A.D., man rst began to use a mechanical system for propulsion: Watts steam engine. The rst steam enginesdesigned by Thomas Savoy and Thomas Newcomen in the early 1700swere used to pump water out of coal mines. These engines were too inefcient for transport: They converted less than 1% of fuel energy for work. James Watt discovered that the primary cause of this inefciency was heat loss, due to the steam cylinder being heated and cooled at every stroke.7 His ingenious solution to this problemcondensing the steam outside of the cylindermade steam engines much more efcient and practical for widespread use in pumping water and powering locomotives, ships and factory machinery.8 The steam engine had many advantages for transportation uses. Unlike horses, steam engines do not fall ill; they do not require expensive upkeep; they can operate in a variety of weather conditions, and they can run for long periods of time without a break. Furthermore, Watt could use Britains abundant coal supply, rather than wood, to fuel his steam engines; using the more energydense material contributed to the dramatic improvement in the speed and range of travel offered by steam engines and reduced operating costs. Thus, it was the combination of a substitute fuel source (coal) and a new technology (steam engine) that transformed transportation and made possible the Industrial Revolution. With the rise of the steam engine, coal displaced wood as Britains dominant fuel, and demand for coal exploded. Indeed, in the late 19th century, William Stanley Jevons, a prominent economist and logician, predicted that Britain would soon deplete its coal supplies and therefore decline as an industrial power.9 This disaster, too, was avertedthanks to the invention of the internal combustion engine. The internal combustion engine
Display 1
Humanitys Search for Greater Power

Output in Horsepower
Human pushing a lever Ox pulling a load Water turbine Vertical waterwheel Turret windmill Newcomens steam engine Watts revised steam engine Marine steam engine Water turbine Rail steam engine Airplane (Wright Brothers) Steam turbine Automobile (Model T) Airplane (WWI Liberty Plane) Airplane (747 Jet) Coal-fired steam plant Nuclear power plant 0.05 0.5 0.4 3 14 5.5 40 750 800 12,000 12 17,500 22 400 275,000 1,465,000
Date
3000 BC 3000 BC 1000 BC 350 BC 1600 AD 1712 AD 1800 AD 1837 AD 1854 AD 1900 AD 1903 AD 1906 AD 1909 AD 1917 AD 1969 AD 1973 AD 1974 AD
1,520,000
Source: Earl Cook, Man, Energy, Society, 1976, Boeing Corporation, http:// www.modelt.ca/faq-fs.html, http://wright.nasa.gov/overview.htm, http://www. pilotfriend.com/aero_engines/aero_pst_eng.htm
increased energy conversion efciency by burning fuel inside the engine cylinder (unlike steam engines and other external combustion engines that burned fuel outside the cylinder) and by using oil, which has about twice the energy content of coal. Oil-burning internal combustion engines made possible more powerful, longer-range locomotives and ships, as well as such new forms of transportation as the airplane. As a result of its improved efciency and convenience, the internal combustion engine rapidly displaced the steam engine for transportation. Accordingly, oils importance as a source fuel for industrial economies grew, and coals relative importance declined. Countries such as the UK moved from coal to oil long before their coal supplies were exhausted, disproving Jevons dire forecasts. While fear of resource shortages has sometimes lent urgency to transportation transitions, such transitions only took hold with the discovery of a more convenient fuel source and a technology able to efciently make use of it. The discovery of a newand potentially more efcientfuel source is not in itself sufcient: The
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BRITAINS TRANSITION TO OIL

In 1912, on the eve of World War I, Winston Churchill, as head of the Royal Navy, took a fateful step to convert British battleships from burning coal to oil.10 The advent of the internal combustion engine had made possible oil-powered ships with many advantages over coal-red steamships: They were lighter, faster, more efcient, more powerful and generated less smoke, which made it easier to evade enemies.11 But conversion to oil was risky, because the UK at the time had no domestic oil supply. The move also heralded the age of oil. Energy historian Daniel Yergin notes that the Royal Navys transition to oil was the rst demonstration of how national security and economic well-being could be fundamentally linked to oil. Thereafter, economic power became increasingly reliant on oil-fueled machinery, and industries and military power on oil-fueled ships, tanks, trucks and airplanes.
The Royal Navys shift to oil may have also helped oil producers to continue investing in production To commit the and innovation at a time Navy irrevocably to when their main product, oil was indeed to take kerosene for lighting, was arms against a sea of losing share to the electrouble, Churchill tric light bulb, and when later wrote. If we more automobiles were overcame the difculpowered by coal-burning ties and surmounted steam engines or electric the risks, we should batteries than by oil-burnbe able to raise the The HMS Warspite: Commissioned in 1913, it was the rst warship ing internal combustion whole power and to use only oil fuel, the rst to mount 15-inch guns and the rst engines.* It was only after efciency of the navy to reach a speed of 25 knots. to a denitely higher the introduction of the level: Better ships, better crews, higher economies, electric starter in 1912 that the internal combusmore intense forms of war power. In a word, mastion engine became the dominant standard for tery itself was the prize of the venture.12 road travel, leading to sharp and sustained growth in oil demand. To secure long-term supplies, Churchill persuaded Britain, of course, gained another benet from the UK government to purchase a controlling Churchills savvy investment: BP became one of interest in a edging oil company named AngloBritains largest companies, and by the time it was Persian, which became British Petroleum, later fully privatized in 1987, the British government renamed BP. These moves conferred an important had recognized a prot in excess of $20 billion. Its military advantage on Britain that contributed to initial investment has thus been dubbed one of the its victory in World War I. After the war, British greatest nancial investments ever.14 statesman Lord Curzon went so far as to say, The Allied cause had oated to victory upon a wave of oil.13
* At the turn of the century, only 22% of the US auto market was
gasoline-powered; 38% was electric-powered and 40% steam-powered; see Roland Chavasse, Developments in Hybrid Vehicles and Their Potential Influence on Minor Metals, SFP Metals, 2005.
technology and infrastructure to support the innovation must also be in place. However, once the technology and infrastructure are in place and the benets of the new system become apparent, the transition to the more efcient platform may be rapid. Often, the discovery sets off a virtuous cycle of innovation and increased demand that eventually creates economies of scale and lower prices, stimulating still more demand.15
The Rise of Electricity Over the course of the 20th century, oil became the key fuel for transportation, and electricitywhether generated by burning coal, natural gas or oil, or by splitting atomsbegan to power almost everything else. Early in the century, Thomas Edisons light bulb displaced the kerosene lamp for lighting. By the end of the 1920s, electricity had become the largest source of power for US and European manufacturing, replacing steam engines and other forms of mechanical power.16 In due course, electricity made possible the rise of entirely new industries, such as information technology and communications, that rely almost exclusively on electricity. It also had massive implications for a much older industry: nance. As a result, more than 85% of growth in US energy usage since 1980 has been due to increased electricity demand.17 Other advanced industrialized countries have also witnessed similar transformations.
Display 3
Higher-Density Fuels Boost Efficiency and Power

Stove Efficiency by Fuel Source
70% 50% 35% 25% 10% Agricultural Waste 15%
Wood
Coal Oil Natural Gas Microwave (Charcoal) (Kerosene) (LPG) (Electricity)
Efciency is dened as the ratio of effective/useful output to total input. Source: United Nations World Energy AssessmentEnergy and the Challenge of Sustainability and AllianceBernstein
Due to electricitys unparalleled efciency, power and versatility, electrication enabled the use of continuousprocess techniques in manufacturing, such as the assembly line. It thereby reduced task times and made mass production possible. 20 Electrication also improved productivity by enabling the use of smaller electric motors for powering individual machines and tools. It thereby reduced energy use per task and permitted more exible and efcient factory design. 21 We expect the shift to electric power to continue as electronics and electrical systems replace mechanical processes in an ever-expanding number of applications. Innovations in power-chip technology, which afford more precise and reliable control of electricity, are enabling this transformation. We discuss the new power semiconductors in more detail on page 28, because they are important components of hybrid vehicles. The massive growth in electronics has led to tremendous growth in demand for electricity worldwide. In the US alone, demand for electricity rose 30-fold in the 20th century, or three times as fast as overall energy consumption. In the last 20 years of the 20th century, as electronics proliferated, electricity consumption doubled from already high levels; this growth is projected to continue at relatively rapid rates (Display 4, next page). The shift to largely electric-powered transportation systems will be the next phase in the broad transition away from relatively inefcient mechanical systems that rely solely on oil to more efcient and cost-effective electric power.
Electricity is a tremendously concentrated and fast form of power, as well as a highly ordered form of energy: That is, electricity can deliver more power in less space or weight than mechanical systems.18 For instance, a high-voltage wire with a cross section of several inches can transmit 1 million kilowatts (kw) of power. By comparison, the mechanical power train in a car uses ve times the area to convey merely 100 kw of power to the wheels. This unique trait allows electricity to deliver greater efciency, power and speed over long distances, improving convenience and productivity, which account for its ascendancy in many spheres of economic activity. For instance, the efciency of using parafn candles or kerosene lamps for lighting was well under 1% in 1800s, compared to the 35% to 50% efciency of electrical lighting systems today.19 This not only massively increased aggregate demand for lighting, but also made life better and more productive. A more recent example is the evolution of the stove. The wood stoves of the 1800s had efciencies of 10% to 15%, versus 50% for todays natural gas burning stovesand 70% for the electric microwave, which can also warm food faster and more conveniently (Display 3).
Display 4
An Increasing Share of Energy Demand Is for Electricity

US Energy and Electricity Consumption
200 100 Annual Use (Quads) 10 1 0.1 1800 1855 1910 1965 2020 Total Energy Electricity*
is now designing all-electric surface ships; several fuel sources in addition to nuclear are being considered for them. In addition, manufacturers are currently deploying hybrid buses, locomotives, tractors and trucks in meaningful quantities. The emergence of hybrid power in passenger vehicles is far more signicant, however, because the passenger market is far larger. The impact would be enormous if, eventually, every car sold were a hybrid, as predicted by James E. Press, president of Toyota Motors North America.22 William Clayton Ford, Jr., CEO of Ford Motor, has said, The 100-year reign of the gas-powered internal combustion engine could come to an end in our lifetime. 23 We expect the hybrid automobiles now available to be just the rst step toward the demise of the traditional internal combustion vehicle, which could eventually end oils stranglehold on transportation, the economy and geopolitics. The electrical content in cars is likely to keep rising, thereby improving the energy efciency of automobiles. In time, people may drive all-electric, battery-powered vehicles, plug-in hybrids or fuel-cellpowered vehicles. We are particularly optimistic about the opportunity for plug-in vehicles, although they are still several years away from being commercially viable. But we predict that even the hybrid technology that is currently or imminently available will have a signicant impact on oil demand over the next 25 years.
*Energy consumed to produce electricity Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2003, US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, and Huber and Mills, The Bottomless Well
Electricity in Transportation One major limitation on electric-powered transportation to date has been the size and weight of the batteries needed to store energy for free-roaming vehicles: While electric cables or rails have powered propulsion of some trains and trams for about a century, battery-driven electric motors have only powered parts of peripheral systems in most automobiles, trains and boats. Inadequate semiconductor technology necessary to efciently manage the ow of voltage has also been an obstacle until recently.
Increasingly, however, propulsion itself is being powered by electricity. Submarines have been all-electric for years, thanks to nuclear generators on board. The US Navy
OIL DEMAND YESTERDAY AND TOMORROW

Global oil consumption has increased from 49 million barrels per day in 1971 to nearly 77 million in 2002 (Display 5) and 84 million barrels in 2005, despite improvements in oil efciency that were spurred by the oil shocks of 1973/74 and 1979/80. Oil efciency, measured by real output per barrel of oil consumed, has improved by 50% in the developed world and 33% in the developing world since 1971.24 Many sectors have simply moved to other fuels: Substitution has been most evident in electric-power generation, particularly in developed economies. Globally, petroleum has fallen from 25% of the total fuel input for electric generation in 1971 to less than 7% in 200325 (Display 6). Substitution has also been widespread for residential and ofce heating. As a result, the composition of oil consumption has markedly shifted toward transportation.Within the transportation sector, the fastest growing category has been road transport (passenger vehicles, buses and commercial trucks), which accounted for about 25% of global oil consumption in 1971 versus nearly 40% in 2003.26 In fact, road transport was responsible for nearly two-thirds of the incremental growth in oil consumption from 1971 to 2003.27 Thus, accurately projecting oil demand for road transport is crucial to correctly calculating overall future demand for oil.
Forecasting Oil Demand for Vehicles The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that by 2030, global oil demand will increase by nearly half, from its current level of 84 million barrels, to reach 121 million barrels per day (mbd).28 The IEA also projects transportation will continue to be a major factor in oil demand growth, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the incremental demand (Display 7).29 In conversations with IEA energy analysts, we learned that the IEA expects 82% of the incremental growth in oil consumption for transport uses over this period to come from road transport and 60% of the road transport consumption to come from light-duty vehicles.30 From this disclosure and the IEA/SMP model, we infer that the IEA expects light-duty vehiclespassenger cars, sport-utility vehicles (SUVs), pick-up trucks and vansto represent the largest subcategory within the transport sector at 32 million barrels per day in 2030, up from 18 million barrels in 2002.*
Display 5
Transportation Drives Rise in Global Oil Demand

Millions of Barrels per Day
1971 2002 2030E
16 Transport
33
37
40
65
56
Non-Transport Total: 49 Mil. Total: 77 Mil. Total: 121 Mil.
Sources: IEA,World Energy Outlook 2004 and AllianceBernstein Display 6
Electric Generation Is Increasingly Less Reliant on Oil

Global Fuel Shares for Electrical Generation
1973 Hydro 21% Nuclear 4% Gas 12% 38% Coal Source: IEA, Key Statistics 2004 Display 7 19% 25% Oil 16% 18% 40% 2003 7%
Within Transportation, Light-Duty Vehicles Are Critical

Millions of Barrels per Day
Other 9 Trucks 9 40 Light-Duty Vehicles 18 2002 Total: 77 Mil. 17 Transport 16 56 Non-Transport
32 2030E Total: 121 Mil.
Medium and heavy trucks; light trucks and pick-ups are included with cars in light-duty vehicles. Source: IEA,World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA/SMP model, IEA analysts and AllianceBernstein
* In the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2004, the IEA published its high-level forecasts for aggregate oil demand and oil demand for transportation uses, but did not
disclose the underlying assumptions, estimates and calculations supporting these projections. However, the IEAs WEO model may be approximated by referencing the joint work between the IEA and the World Business Council on Sustainable Developments Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) team. According to the IEA, these entities have worked together over the past few years to develop a global transportation spreadsheet model that both organizations use for making projections and policy analysis. The model can be obtained from the World Business Council; the detailed assumptions underpinning it are fully described in the IEA/SMP Model Documentation and Reference Case Projections, by Lewis Fulton (IEA) and George Eads (CRA), July 2004. Since the IEA does not provide transparency to its WEO model, the IEA transportation projections referred to in this report are estimates based on the IEAs WEO headline projections, the IEA/SMP model (reference case), and subsequent disclosures from IEA analysts.
The IEA forecasts a shift in the geographic locus of demand growth, however, to rapidly developing nations. In particular, the IEA expects that rising incomes and infrastructure development in China and India will lead to more widespread vehicle ownership and road travel and therefore to greater demand for oil. We agree with the IEA that the primary driver of oil demand growth will be higher levels of vehicle ownership globally. We disagree, however, with the agencys minimal projections for improvements in fuel efciency.31 (For more details of our forecast, see page 32). As one would expect, the IEA calculates oil demand for cars and other light-duty vehicles by estimating the total number of vehicles in a given year, multiplying that gure by the average miles driven per vehicle and dividing it by the average fuel economy of the vehicles. For instance, the IEA estimates that the global stock of light-duty vehicles will increase from 707 million in 2002 to 1,289 million in 2030, and that annual miles driven per vehicle will grow from more than 8,800 to nearly 9,600.* Dividing the product of these variables by the global average fuel efciency of 22.6 miles per gallon (mpg) in 2002 and the IEAs projection of 25.1 mpg in 2030 yields the IEAs estimate of oil use by light-duty vehicles of 18.0 million barrels per day in 2002 and 32.1 million barrels per day in 2030 (Display 8). But these demand forecasts are highly sensitive to the projected fuel efciency of the vehicles. If one assumes average fuel efciency of 40 mpg (the current average for new light-duty vehicles sold in Europe32) instead of 25.1 mpg, global oil demand by light-duty vehicles would reach only 20 million barrels per day in 2030 (Display 9). Improving fuel efciency to 60 mpg, which is feasible as hybrid technology improves, would cut oil demand by light-duty vehicles globally to 13.4 million barrels per day. Indeed, we expect step changes in fuel efciency as new technologies are introduced and adopted over the next 25 years. Therefore, we have focused on estimating the impact these new technologies may have on average fuel efciency, and how fast the technology may be adopted, in order to estimate the outlook for oil demand. Our analysis suggests that oil demand will be substantially lower over the long term than the IEA predicts, due to the improved efciency and rapid adoption of hybrid vehicles, rst by commercial and government eets and
* IEA estimates of the installed base of vehicles inferred from the IEA/SMP
Display 8
Comparison of Oil Demand Forecast Assumptions

2002 Installed Base (Millions) x Avg. Annual Miles per Vehicle 10,000 5,000 0 60 30 0 40 20 0 IEA 50.0 23.1 23.5 25.1 1,500 750 0 2010E 2030E
Avg. Miles per Gallon
Total (Millions of Barrels per Day)
21.8 21.5
32.1 16.1
Installed base, sales and mpg estimates are derived from the IEA/SMP base case model, in which the IEA/SMP held vehicle miles traveled constant for 30 years. In order to correlate these estimates to subsequent references from the agency, AllianceBernstein estimated the increase in this variable. Source: IEA, SMP and AllianceBernstein
other high-travel segments, and then by the mass market. Thus, we estimate that global oil demand for light-duty vehicles will rise to just 21.5 million barrels per day in 2010, and fall to 16.1 million in 2030, as Display 8 also shows. While our forecast for 2010 is only 0.3 million barrels per day (2%) lower than the IEAs, our forecast for 2030 is 16.0 million barrels (50%) lower. In the following sections of this report, we outline the various types of hybrid vehicles, explain how they function, and discuss why we believe they will be widely adopted. We also explain why these vehicles are able to achieve higher fuel economies and highlight other likely technological developments associated with hybrids. Once we have made the case for mass adoption of hybrids, we will present our auto forecast in greater detail.
Display 9
Sensitivity of Demand Estimates to Fuel-Efficiency Assumption

Oil Demand from Light-Duty Vehicles in 2030
(Millions of Barrels per Day) 32.1 20.1 13.4 16.1 50 mpg (RSC)
MPG Assumption: 25.1 mpg (IEA)
40 mpg 60 mpg (Illustrative)
transport model. Miles traveled estimated to correlate the IEA/SMP transportation model (reference case) with subsequent IEA disclosures. IEA estimates for the fuel efficiency of the installed base of vehicles derived from the IEA/SMP transport model (reference case).
All four forecasts based on IEA assumption of total global eet of 1,289 million vehicles, traveling an average of 9,576 miles per year in 2030. Source: IEA and AllianceBernstein
10
HYBRIDS EMERGE
Many technologies and power trains may signicantly increase fuel efciency in the foreseeable future, including gasoline-electric hybrids, diesel, natural gas, ex-fuel (biofuel), all-electric (battery only) and fuel-cell vehicles. Over the next decade, however, we expect hybrid technology to be the most important. Lee Iacocca, the former CEO of Chrysler, has said, I dont see anything on the horizon short term that can improve fuel economy faster than a hybrid.33 We agree. Hybrid-power technology offers a more attractive set of benets than alternative power trains (Display 10). Hybrids offer improved fuel efciency and performance measured by acceleration and horsepower (hp)lower emissions and greater convenience: Unlike diesel, hybrids do not sacrice performance to gain fuel efciency; unlike biofuel vehicles, hybrids do not require special pumps at refueling stations; unlike all-electric vehicles, hybrids do not limit driving range. Additionally, consumers should soon have a wide array of model choices. Furthermore, the technology has been rapidly improving: Hybrids stand to benet substantially from research underway on engine, electrical component and battery technologies. Finally, hybrids offer tremendous exibility: Diesel and ex-fuel engines, as well as gasoline-burning engines, can be hybridized.
Display 10
Gasoline-electric hybrids (the most common offering today) have just two weaknesses: load capacity and initial cost. Load capacity is generally not a major issue for passenger cars. It is a concern for pick-up and heavy trucks, but over time, a diesel hybrid could emerge as an option for these segments. As for the initial price premium, we expect costs for this new technologylike so many othersto fall signicantly as economies of scale set in. We address the price premium question in more detail on page 19. Given their many advantages and limited, surmountable drawbacks, we expect the number of hybrid vehicles to grow rapidly over the next decade and eventually reach over 80% of new cars and light trucks sold worldwide (we include here both gasoline-electric and dieselelectric hybrids). In the sections that follow, we will explain hybrid technology and make the case for their mass adoption. We will also address the cost curve that hybrids are likely to trace, analyze the impact hybrids will have on the auto and technology industries, chart their future evolution, and assess the implications for oil demand and investment.
Hybrids Are Far More Attractive than the Alternatives

Hybrid (Gasoline)
Factor Fuel Efficiency Performance (acceleration) Emissions/Air Quality Model Choice/Flexibility Convenience (range, refueling) Load Capacity Initial Cost Cost per Mile Representative Model
Diesel
CNG*
Flex-Fuel
All Electric
High Medium Low
Toyota Prius
VW Jetta
Honda Civic
GM Monte Carlo
Toyota RAV4 EV
*Compressed natural gas Comparisons based on commercially available vehicles. Source: AllianceBernstein
11
IS DIESEL AN ATTRACTIVE ALTERNATIVE?

Diesel is the power train most often mentioned as a viable competitor to hybrids, due to its lower initial price, high fuel efciency and high power torque at low speeds. In Europe, where stiff taxes make gasoline much more expensive than it is in the US, diesels popularity has soared. Diesels share of new light-duty vehicle sales in Europe has risen from about 20% in 1997 to over 50% in 2005. Our research suggests that over the longer term, the conventional diesel power train may be complementaryrather than competitiveto the hybrid power train in the passenger vehicle market, for several reasons: First, although conventional diesel-burning engines are more fuel efcient than traditional gasoline-burning engines when measured over the full cycle from oil well to vehicle wheels (on a well-to-wheels basis), they are not as efcient as hybrids. A Toyota study comparing vehicles of similar weight and size concluded that the diesel car has a well-to-wheel efciency of 19% versus 13% for gasoline, and 32% for the Prius hybrid.34 Other studies provide similar results, though the magnitude of the hybrids advantage varies somewhat by study.35 Second, conventional diesel engines require a trade-off between performance (acceleration) and fuel efciency (Display 11); hybrids, by contrast, improve both performance and fuel efciency (Display 12). Although diesels can deliver more torque in addition to higher fuel efciency than gasoline equivalents, their higher torque is best used for accelerating to low speeds (e.g., from 030 miles per hour) and for carrying heavy loads. Diesels perform less favorably when judged by horsepower and acceleration to high speeds (from 0 to 60 miles per hour) than gasoline-powered vehicles. Compared to hybrids, diesels are disadvantaged in acceleration to low speeds, since hybrids produce maximum torque instantaneously while diesels need time to achieve maximum torque.
Display 11
Diesels Sacrifice Acceleration to Improve Fuel Economy

45 40 Fuel Economy (mpg) Jetta 35 Diesel 30 25 Jetta 20 10.5 10 9.5 9 Passat Diesel Passat New Beetle 8.5 8 7.5 7 New Beetle Diesel
Acceleration (Seconds from 0 to 60 mph) Source: Autos.com, carsdirect.com and fueleconomy.org
Display 12
Hybrids Improve Acceleration and Fuel Economy

45 Fuel Economy (mpg) 40 35 30 25 20 9.5 Lexus RX 330 9 8.5 8 Highlander 7.5 Camry Lexus Hybrid Highlander Hybrid 7 Camry Hybrid
Acceleration (Seconds from 0 to 60 mph) Source: Cars.com, carsdirect.com,Toyota and AllianceBernstein
Diesels are also likely to be disadvantaged in acceleration to high speeds because they generally have lower maximum horsepower than gasoline and hybrid vehicles. Therefore, diesels are not a nocompromise solution in terms of performance, as hybrids are.
12
Third, and perhaps most important, conventional diesel vehicles face signicant regulatory challenges in many regions. While diesel engines emit less carbon dioxide (purportedly the main cause of global warming) than gasoline engines, they emit more nitrogen oxide (a major contributor to smog) and particulate matter (linked to strokes, lung cancer and other respiratory problems). Thus, California, New York and several other states in the US have effectively restricted sales of diesel passenger vehicles. Clean diesel engines and fuels may be developed in the future, but this is likely to be an expensive effortand it remains unclear if even these new engines and fuels can meet the increasingly stringent environmental requirements being adopted in many countries (Display 13). In fact, Nissan recently pulled two diesel models from its lineup rather than incur the expense of making their engines cleaner.36 Additionally,Volkswagen has decided to drop the diesel versions of the Jetta, Golf and Beetle from its US line-up for the 2007 model year due to their inability to meet new federal standards.37 Competition from hybrids is particularly important in Europe, because Europe is where diesel has gained greatest market share. European Union environmental standards are set to become much tighter in the next few years, which will likely raise the price of diesel vehicles and could push automakers towards gasoline-electric or diesel-electric hybrids. Today, Europe is on the Euro 4 guideline; the proposed Euro 5 requirements would cut allowable emissions of nitrogen oxide and particulate matter for diesel by 20% and 80%, respectively, by 2008. Possible Euro 6 standards may go even further, particularly on nitrogen oxide, sometime between 2012 and 2015.38 The cost of compliance with the particulate standards alone has been estimated at $500 to $1,000 per vehicle. It could be higher if medical research shows that more effective particulate lters are needed on diesel vehicles to curb health risks.39 New, more expensive catalytic converters may also be required to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions to the target level.
Display 13
Diesels Will Soon Face Stricter Emissions Standards

0.06 Particulates (g/km*) 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 US Tier II 0.01 (2009) 0 0 Japan (2005) 0.1 0.2 Euro 4 (2005) US (Current)
Japan (2002) Euro 3 (2000)
Euro 5 (2008) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Nitrogen Oxide (g/km) *Grams per kilometer traveled Source:WRI Capital Research, www.dieselnet.com and AllianceBernstein
In addition, the European Union is targeting reductions in carbon dioxide emissions to 120 grams per kilometer (g/km) for all new passenger vehicles in 2012, versus 172 today for new gasoline vehicles and 155 g/km for new diesel vehicles. Several automakers have suggested that the cost of compliance with this new standard, which may become mandatory (todays standards are voluntary), could initially be more than $5,000 per vehicle.40 If adopted, this new standard could further push automakers to embrace hybrids as a cost-effective alternative.41 Conventional diesel technology may remain the best choice for pick-up trucks and vans that carry heavy loads, but as price premiums for hybrid vehicles decline and the technology becomes standardized, manufacturers may introduce diesel hybrids that would provide the greater torque needed for such tasks, as well as the fuel efciency and clean emissions associated with gasoline hybrids. Considering Europes large-scale conversion to diesel over the past decade, automakers are also likely to introduce diesel hybrids into the European passenger car market, since they would offer better performance, fuel efciency and emissions than either conventional gasoline- or dieselpowered vehicles could achieve. Peugeot and Volkswagen have announced plans to develop such vehicles.
13
Hybrid Basics Hybrid vehicles combine an internal combustion engine with a generator, battery, and one or more electric motor(s) to reduce the wasted energy associated with an internal combustion engine and mechanical processes versus electronic systems.
In a conventional engine, only about 15% of the energy generated by the fuel in the tank reaches the wheels to move passengers and power accessories, such as air conditioning. The other 85% of the energy content of the fuel is lost to engine and driveline inefciencies, idling and braking (Display 14). According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, vehicles solely powered by gasoline-burning internal combustion engines lose over 62% of their fuels energy in combustion, the process in which chemical energy is converted to mechanical energy.42 The main components of this loss are engine friction, air pumping into and out of the engine, and wasted heat. Hence, the potential to improve the fuel efciency of traditional vehicles is enormous. Battery-powered electrical motors can be smaller, lighter, and up to ve or six times as efcient as internal combustion engines at converting energy to motion. The main loss motors face is the resistance in the electric circuitry. Thus, hybrids employ electrical power trains to improve fuel tank-to-wheel efciency. The improved energy efciency can be used to achieve varying combinations of increased fuel efciency, enhanced performance (power) and/or the introduction of new electronic safety and luxury features. While there are many kinds of hybrids (see Hybrid Variations, page 15), in a full hybrid, four primary factors help improve efciency.
Display 14
Electric Motor Drive/Assist. Using a battery more powerful than the lead-acid battery now used to start most vehicles, the electric motor propels the vehicle during low-speed acceleration from stop and during cruising; it also provides power to assist the engine in sudden acceleration, high-speed passing or hill climbing. This allows a smaller internal combustion engine to function at levels previously unattainable. Those Toyota hybrids designed to maximize fuel efciency, such as the Prius, use a highly efcient, compact Atkinson-Miller cycle engine, whose fuel efciency is further enhanced by the use of electronic variable valve timing and other electrical components, as well as lighter weight materials. In conventional vehicles, the low-output Atkinson engine would cripple performance; in a hybrid, the synergistic drive created by the engine and the high output motors and generators permits robust fuel efciency and performance. The hybrid system can seamlessly switch among use of the motor, the engine or both as driving conditions warrant. Start/Stop. The hybrid system automatically shuts off the engine when the vehicle comes to a stop, and restarts with the motor and battery when the vehicle launches or accelerates, preventing wasted energy from idling. Regenerative Braking. When braking, the hybrids electric
motor applies resistance to the drive train, causing the wheels to slow down.The motor captures the energy from the wheels, functioning as a generator to convert into electricity the energy normally wasted as heat during braking. The electricity is stored in the battery until needed. In essence, normal braking recharges the hybrid battery.
Transmission Optimization. Since an automobile engine runs best at a certain range of revolutions per minute (rpm), the function of the transmission in a conventional vehicle is to deliver power from the engine to the wheels for a wide range of loads and output speeds, while keeping the engine within its narrow rpm range. That is to say, the transmission manages the speed ratio between the engine and the wheels of an automobile. It does this through the use of several gears and a limited set of gear combinations; without a transmission, automobiles would effectively have only one gear. By changing the gear ratio, the transmission makes better use of the engines power as driving conditions change. But the xed number of gear ratios, along with the mechanical parts and the low level of computing power in a conventional vehicles transmission, limit the ability to shift smoothly and seamlessly for efciency and performance. Hybrids seek to overcome this limitation to varying degrees, depending on the type of transmission
Electricity Is Far More Efficient Way to Power Cars

Internal Combustion Engine
Energy Input
100%
Electric Motor
Energy Input Energy Output
(6)%
(14)%
100%
80% Driveline Electric Loss Resistance (62)%
Heat Loss
(17)%
(6)%
Energy Output
Idle Loss Driveline Loss 15%
56x More Efficient on Energy to Wheels Basis Source:Toyota, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and AllianceBernstein
14
(or substitute) they employ, primarily by expanding the set of gear combinations. More precisely, they increase the variability between highest and lowest gears with as few discrete steps or shifts as possible to obtain greater fuel efciency and performance. In full hybrids, the transmission manages the speeds of both the engine and the motor, directing power from either or both in various combinations to drive the wheels. Some automakers have used an electronically controlled transmission that can vary engine and motor speeds in innite combinations quickly and reliably, while optimizing for fuel efciency and performance. This exceptionally robust transmission system, also known as e-CVT, uses a power-split device (essentially, a modied planetary-gear system) to replace the traditional mechanical transmission; it eliminates belts, clutches, torque converters and transmission uids. Toyota developed this advanced system and has extensive patent protection around the technology. It currently licenses its innovation to Ford and Nissan. We discuss power-splits in more detail on page 27. Other automakers are seeking to use other, less robust solutions for transmission optimization in hybrid vehicles. Continuous variable transmissions (CVTs) provide a wide, but not innite, range of gear ratios; they have been somewhat unreliable because of the inability of the CVT belt to handle high torque and horsepower. Dual clutch transmissions provide more gear ratios than an automatic transmission, but less than a CVT; because they appear to be more reliable than the CVT, they could be a viable option. It is too early to extensively evaluate this technique since it has yet to be introduced in a commercially available hybrid. Another alternative, the conventional transmission, delivers less performance and fuel savings than an e-CVT, CVT or dual clutch transmission, so those now used in some hybrid vehicles are likely to last only until better technologies are developed. The combination of the four factors above enables hybrid vehicles to achieve 20% to 80% gains in overall fuel efciency versus comparable conventional gasoline-powered vehicles.The fuel-efciency benet is likely to increase as the technology matures.The electric drive train in todays hybrid system also confers other benets, such as improved performance, lower emissions and reduced operating costs. The performance improvement is largely the result of the electric motors ability to produce instantaneous torque and relatively fast acceleration from stop, and to work with the engine to generate high output (horsepower) at high speeds (see Hybrids and Performance, page 20).
Hybrid vehicles also offer several other benets. Electrical systems tend to break down less often than conventional mechanical systems, and typically cost less per mile traveled. Hybrids also generate signicantly lower emissions.Vehicle emissions are a function of fuel purity, fuel efciency and cold start. Hybrids achieve lower emissions from the use of smaller, more efcient engines and from the use of the electric motor for startup, thereby reducing cold start. Emissions from hybrid vehicles are virtually zero when the car is being driven by the motor alone. In the near term, we expect most auto manufacturers to offer hybridization as an option: Consumers today have the choice of buying a hybrid or conventional version of a Camry; theyll have a similar choice for many other models sold. In time, there are likely to be a wide range of vehicles specically designed to capitalize on the strengths of the hybrid system.
Hybrid Variations Hybrid-vehicle components can be arranged in a variety of ways to obtain different objectives, such as greater fuel efciency, increased power, lower emissions or portable power generation for construction (perhaps in a hybrid pick-up truck).
In a series hybrid, the gasoline engine is not directly connected to the drive train. Instead, the engine is used to drive an electric generator that provides electricity for an electric motor that moves the wheels: The power ows to the wheels in a series. The engine can charge the battery when necessary via the generator, enhancing fuel efciency somewhat. However, the series hybrid offers inferior performance, since only the motor drives the wheels. In a parallel hybrid, the engine and the electric motor theoretically can drive the wheels independently or concurrently: The power ows to the wheels in parallel. While this construction is capable of decent performance, fuel efciency can suffer because the battery is not automatically recharged whenever the engine is running. A series/parallel hybrid combines both systems to maximize fuel efciency and performance. This design allows both the engine and the motor to drive the vehicle, which is good for performance, and it allows the engine to charge the battery even when the motor is driving the vehicle, which is good for fuel efciency.
15
Another key difference among hybrids is the degree to which the electric motor propels the vehicle and, thus, the level of electric power in the vehicle. As a point of reference, a conventional, non-hybrid passenger vehicle generates about two kilowatts of peak electric load from its battery for power electronics versus about 100 kw of peak power from its mechanical (non-electric) systems. It has a ratio of electric power to total power of about 2%. Full hybrid passenger vehiclesin which the electric motor is capable of powering the vehicle by itself for some period of timehave a ratio of electric to total power of 30% or higher (Display 15). Mild hybrids, which cannot run on electric power alone, typically have a ratio of electric to total power between 10% and 30%. Also called assist hybrids, mild hybrids primarily rely on their gasoline engines, with the electric motor only supplying supplemental power. Their engines stop when idling and can recapture energy from braking. Weak hybrids, often used in pick-up trucks, also feature engine stop when idling and recapture of braking energy. However, they have a much lower ratio of electric power to total power than mild and full hybrids do, because they are not designed to use electric power for propulsion. Their considerable battery power can be used to generate electricity on site for power tools and other accessories. Mild and weak hybrids are currently less expensive to build, but offer signicantly reduced benets than full hybrids. They appear to have been designed as a shortterm solution; some manufacturers, including Honda and GM, appear to be moving from weak and mild hybrids toward full hybrid systems. We see the greatest potential for full hybrids. In this report, our use of the term hybrid refers to full hybrids unless otherwise indicated.
Display 15
Compatibility with Other Technologies Hybrid technology is unusual because it is compatible with many other fuel-saving technologies being developed for traditional gasoline or diesel engines, including cylinder de-activation, variable valve timing, direct fuel injection and advanced turbochargers, smaller engines and friction reduction. Each of these techniques is estimated to boost the fuel efciency of conventional engines by 3% to 8%.43 Innovations in the use of strong, lightweight materials, design improvements and ex fuels also have the potential to increase fuel efciency without sacricing performance. These technologies can be incorporated into hybrid vehicles, as well as conventional cars.
Promising research is underway on ways to reduce vehicle weight, while maintaining safety standards. Such materials as carbon-ber composites, aluminum, magnesium, plastics and high-strength steel are central to this effort. Design changes are also important. A rule of thumb in the auto industry is that every 10% weight reduction leads to a 5% to 7% fuel-efciency gain. Other potential improvements include reducing aerodynamic drag and rolling resistance through enhanced design and engineering, and the use of better accessory technologies: efcient alternators, pumps and compressors, and intelligent diagnostic systems. Flex fuels are another promising development: Nearly 70% of new cars sold in Brazil are designed to run on either alcohol, gasoline or any combination of the two. Such vehicles are easy to equip; the marginal cost of such changes is currently about $100 per vehicle. However, considerable debate exists regarding the benets of ex fuel use over a vehicles life. While many experts agree that cellulose-based ethanol, made from all parts of various grasses and other plants, is an effective way to reduce oil consumption, the merits of using corn-based ethanol are questionable. Sugarcane-based ethanol and biodiesel from rapeseeds and palm oils are also options. Other promising future technologies include controlled auto ignition (CAI) for gasoline, and homogenous charge compression ignition (HCCI) for diesel. While their benets are expected to be sizeable, they are still not quantied. In the future, the most fuel-efcient vehicles will be those that incorporate as many of these fuel-saving innovations as possible in conjunction with hybridization. We estimate that such vehicles could achieve fuel efciency of 50 to 75 miles per gallon, two to three times more than a conventional vehicle.44 With further technological advances, fuel efciency could rise even higher.
Fuel Efficiency Rises with Ratio of Electric to Total Power

Fuel Economy Benefit
Baseline 520% 2050% 2080%
Electric to Total Power

Conventional Vehicle Weak Hybrid Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid 2% 510% 1030% 3050%
Representative Model
NA GMC Sierra Honda Civic Hybrid Toyota Prius
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Dr. Menahem Anderman, Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC), The New York Times, Car & Truck Test Monthly Buying Guide and AllianceBernstein
16
OTHER HYBRIDS: BUSES, TRUCKS AND MILITARY VEHICLES

This report focuses on the hybrid opportunity in light-duty vehicles, since it is the largest component of oil demand within transportation. There are, however, signicant developments in the hybridization of other modes of road transport.
Buses. About 1.4 million buses are on the road globally, accounting for about 5% of the fuel consumed for all transportation needs, according to the IEA/SMP. Buses travel 50,000 to 100,000 miles per year on average; they achieve only seven to nine miles per gallon. Several cities have recently begun to commission hybrid buses; the largest order placed so far has been for 500 buses by the New York City Transit Authority.*
ers and parts suppliers, such as Eaton, Mitsubishi and Volvo, have announced plans to introduce hybrid diesel/electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks between 2007 and 2009. The expected fuel efciency benet is in the 30% to 70% range, depending on the size and weight of the vehicle, and whether it is used for city or highway driving. We expect hybridization of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to be a longer-term development because the technology has yet to be commercialized.
Military Vehicles. Light-duty armored trucks, medi-
An operating study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of New York City found that hybrids had many advantages over competing power train technologies. Over an eight-month period, hybrid buses driving in rush-hour trafc delivered 45% better fuel efciency than diesel buses and 100% better than natural gas buses, the NREL found.45 Additionally, the hybrid buses were more reliable, requiring road calls every 10,000 miles versus every 8,000 miles for natural gas buses and 5,000 miles for diesel buses. Anecdotal evidence suggests that hybrid buses also have an acceleration advantage, which is helpful because they stop, start and re-accelerate frequently.They also have an emissions advantage, which is particularly important in densely populated areas and warm climates. As a result, we expect many cities to convert to hybrid buses.
Trucks. Medium- and heavy-duty trucks are a much
um- and heavy-duty supply trucks and tanks could also be hybridized. Global data on the number of these vehicles and their miles traveled and fuel efciency are difcult to obtain for security reasons. Several auto-parts companies we interviewed said the US military is interested in hybridization to make its vehicles more efcient and reliable, as well as faster. These features are particularly attractive for use in mission-critical operations. Greater fuel efciency for military vehicles would reduce the logistical time, effort and expense involved in transporting fuel to sometimes remote locations. A Pentagon study found that fuel accounted for 70% of the cargo tonnage in most US military supply convoys; it estimated that fuel delivery to operations in Iraq cost hundreds of dollars per gallon since fuel convoys have to be guarded by combat troops on the ground and helicopters above.The Financial Times reported that the total cost of refueling a military vehicle in Afghanistan was $600 per gallon and $150 per gallon in Iraq two years ago.46 The Abrams tank, one of the most powerful tanks ever made, is a telling example. It features turbine engines designed in the 1960s that have never been updated. As a result, its engines burn about one gallon of fuel per mile.47 According to the Financial Times, it costs $60,000 to drive the Abrams tank 250 miles from southern Iraq to Baghdad, at a cost of $240 per mile. It even consumes 12 gallons an hour when standing still. Small wonder the US Army is reportedly considering hybrid technology for the Abrams tank! We expect military establishments around the world to seek to deploy hybrid technology rapidly.
larger potential market for hybrid technology. According to the IEA/SMP, there are about 46 million medium- and heavy-duty trucks on the road globally, consuming about 25% of the transport sectors total fuel. Most of these trucks are required for delivery, freight and garbage collection uses; they typically travel 50,000 to 100,000 miles a year. Since they often carry heavy loads, they typically run on diesel fuel, with an estimated fuel efciency of four to 10 miles per gallon. Several automak* New York City uses Orion VII-series hybrid buses sold by
DaimlerChrysler. They contain a hybrid propulsion system from BAE Systems and an ultra-low-sulfur diesel engine from Cummins.
17
THE CASE FOR MASS ADOPTION OF HYBRIDS

Since 1997, only about 820,000 hybrid vehicles have been sold worldwide (representing less than 0.2% of total new car sales). In 2005, 68% of hybrid sales were in the US; 20% were in Japan. Our research suggests, however, that within 10 years, more than half of all new cars sold in developed markets will be hybrids. A signicant reason for our condence in their rapid adoption is that automakers can congure hybrid systems to meet diverse customer preferences for fuel efciency and performance. For example, for customers who most value performance, manufacturers can pair a large engine with an electrical motor to achieve superior performance and/or functionality compared to conventional vehicles. For customers who most value fuel efciency, manufacturers can utilize signicantly smaller engines and still provide customers with the performance characteristics they are used to from a conventional car. In all cases, however, full hybrid technology enhances both fuel efciency and performance, while reducing emissions. The Toyota Camry hybrid is optimized for the more energy-conscious consumer who does not want to sacrice performance. By contrast, the Lexus SUV hybrid (also made by Toyota) is targeted for customers who want better performance and luxury. The Lexus hybrid surpasses all of the other luxury SUVs (V6 and V8) on fuel efciency by a wide margin and almost all of them on power, yet it costs only about 8% more than the average luxury SUV (Display 16).We expect the limited range of hybrid offerings today (in terms of attribute selection, performance and costs) to expand dramatically over the next several years, as automakers mount a steep learning curve in this technology. A recent survey by R.L. Polk indicates that 78% of US consumers would consider buying a hybrid, implying that current demand for these vehicles could be in the millions, far above current annual production capacity of less than 600,000.48 In fact, at one point during 2005, Toyotas inventory of the Prius dropped to what could be sold in several hours.49 The reason for the current capacity shortage is twofold. First, in the past, some auto manufacturers viewed hybrids as a transition technology; therefore, they did not invest in the research and development necessary to offer a variety of high-quality products today. This situation should change soon, because the benets of hybrid technology are now widely recognized by virtually all industry participants. Second, those automakers that have made signicant R&D investments in hybrid technology
18 The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles
Display 16
Hybrids Offer Huge Benefits for a Modest Price Premium

Average Conventional Luxury SUV Lexus Hybrid SUV MPG in City 31 19 15 MPG Highway 27 Seconds from 0 to 60 mph 7.6 6.7 Average for conventional luxury SUVs includes Acura MDX, BMW X3, BMW X5, Cadillac SRX, Hummer H2 SUT, Inniti FX, Land Rover LR3, Land Rover Range Rover HSE, Lexus GX 470, Lexus RX 330, Lincoln Aviator, Mercedes ML350, Porsche Cayenne, Saab 9-7X and Volvo XC90. Lexus Hybrid SUV is Lexus RX 400h. Source: Autos.com, Consumer Guide: Car and Truck Monthly and Road & Track Buyers Guide $000s 43 46
are improving their systems so rapidly that they dont want to make large-scale investments in production facilities that will soon be out of date. Their limited investment in production capacity is a sign of their condence that further efforts at innovation will succeed, not a sign of skepticism about hybrid technologys potential. Our research suggests that with the release of new generations of hybrid technology over the next few years, production capacity and unit sales should increase signicantly. Technological progress has already been dramatic, as shown by the evolution over the last seven years of the Prius (one of the longest-selling hybrids). The Prius (a full hybrid vehicle) has signicantly improved both fuel savings and acceleration from 0 to 60 mph (Display 17). It has also become larger and roomier: A subcompact in 1997, it became a mid-size vehicle in 2004. Finally, its emissions have declined by over 30%. As a result, the Prius now qualies as an advanced technology zeroemissions vehicle, the second best of seven ratings under the stringent California standards.* The 1997 version of the car would likely have been rated a low-emissions vehicle, the second lowest California rating.
* In 1970, the federal Clean Air Act established nationwide air quality
standards and granted California the authority to set its own standards to target five pollutants: hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, particulate matter and formaldehyde. Other states began adopting Californias more stringent standards in 1990. Under the California system, vehicles are placed into one of seven ratings: The best is a zero-emissions vehicle, which is 98% cleaner than the average new 2003 vehicle. Full hybrids generally fall into the second highest category, and are about 90% cleaner than the average new 2003 car.
Display 17
Hybrids Are Improving Rapidly

Toyota Prius Hybrid
60 55 Fuel Economy (mpg) 50 45 40 35 30 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 1st Generation (1997) 1st Generation Plus (2001) 2nd Generation (2003)
Acceleration (Seconds from 0 to 60 mph) Source:Toyota and AllianceBernstein
30% cheaper than gasoline. Thus, when the common-rail technology was introduced, it improved diesels already superior fuel efciency and carbon-dioxide emissions versus gasoline-powered cars. Diesel is a lower-quality fuel than gasoline: Diesel particles are larger and heavier, and thus more difcult to pulverize in combustion. As a result, fewer particles are burnt, which increases pollution while reducing power.50 Common-rail technology improved the process through the use of high-pressure, direct fuel injection via a common rigid pipe (hence the names common rail or direct injection). The result was a dramatic rise in market penetration: Diesel vehicles rose rapidly from 22% of new cars sold in Western Europe in 1997 to over 50% in 2005. In the US, several technologies have achieved 50% penetration in 10 years or less without being required by law.51 None of them offer benets as compelling as hybrids, suggesting that hybrids may achieve signicantly faster adoption than most analysts currently predict.
Surmounting the Price Premium Most projections of low adoption rates for hybrids assume their price premiums will remain a signicant obstacle. Most analysts note that it would take six to 10 years for the average driver to recoup through lower fuel consumption the upfront price premium for a hybrid, even with the benet of tax incentives. They conclude that the payback is too long to induce rapid adoption, without considering the potential for costs to fall, and the other benets hybrid vehicles offer, such as improved performance, lower emissions, and time savings from fewer trips to the gas station.
Lessons from History Since the invention of the internal combustion engine automobile 100 years ago, no new technology introduction in the auto sector has been as revolutionary as we expect hybrid technology to be; thus, history is a poor guide to forecasting hybrid penetration rates. Nonetheless, the introductions of common-rail diesel in Europe and of automatic transmission, front-wheel drive and fuel injection in the US, do provide some useful comparative data (Display 18).
The launch of the common-rail diesel system in Western Europe in the late 1990s is probably the closest analogue. Diesel-powered vehicles represented only about 16% of new passenger car sales in Western Europe in 1992, and the penetration rate attened out after reaching about 22% in 1995. In 1997, when prices at the pump increased by about 10%, tax-advantaged diesel became
Display 18
Likely Pace of Adoption: Lessons from History

Years to Achieve Penetration Rates of:
Technology/Innovation
20%
50%
80%
European Auto Sales Common-Rail Diesel Airbags* Front-Wheel Drive Fuel Injection Multi-Valve Engine Radial Tires <5 yrs 3 yrs 6 5 3 3 <10 yrs US Auto Sales 5 yrs 9 9 10 4 7 yrs 13 13 20 4 NA
The payback calculationmodeled perhaps on calculations applied to insulation-related home improvementsis a new phenomenon for auto analysts. When four-wheel drive, air conditioning and other innovations were introduced, analysts did not try to calculate payback periods. Rather, they determined (correctly) that consumers would want these features and that the price premiums for them would fall as manufacturers achieved economies of scale. Eventually, most automakers were forced to make the advanced features part of the standard package, or lose market share. We expect hybrid technology to follow the same path. Furthermore, since demand for hybrids continues to outstrip supply, we dont know their true clearing price. Hybrid price premiums are currently in the range of $4,000 to $9,00052: The Honda Civic hybrid requires a $4,000 premium; the Prius, about $6,000 over a com-
*Required by law Source: EPA, National Research Council,Wards and AllianceBernstein
19
HYBRIDS AND PERFORMANCE

Torque is a measure of rotational force; horsepower is directly proportional to torque and revolutions per minute (rpm).* In gasoline-powered vehicles, the torque and horsepower of the engine vary greatly over the rpm range (Display 19). As combustion occurs, torque typically increases rapidly from relatively low levels, causing the pistons to rotate the crankshaft and drive the wheels. At faster speeds, air intake issues cause engine torque to peak. Horsepower also increases steadily as rpm rise; it peaks after the maximum torque is attained because the
Display 19
benet of higher rpm initially offsets the impact of declining torque. For instance, the gasolinepowered Toyota Camry produces a peak torque of 153 foot pound (ft lb) at 4,000 rpm and peak horsepower of 160 hp at 5,700 rpm. Diesel engines, by contrast, typically have much higher torque at low rpm due to their heavy weight and larger compression ratios. This is particularly useful for vehicles carrying heavy loads at low speeds, such as trucks and construction equipment. However, the same characteristics limit diesel engines ability to accelerate at high rpm and produce torque at higher speeds. The smaller effective rpm range of diesel engines results in less horsepower. For instance, the Volkswagen Passat has a maximum torque of 247 ft lb at 1,800 rpm, but its peak horsepower is only 134 hp at 4,000 rpm. While the Passat has signicantly higher torque at low rpm than the Camry, it has less horsepower and hence longer acceleration times. By combining a gasoline engine with an electric motor, gasoline hybrids deliver better performance than either gasoline or diesel engines. Since they do not rely on combustion for starting, and instead draw on the battery, they can utilize the power of their motors to produce instantaneous torque at low rpm. For instance, the Camry hybrid produces 203 ft lb of torque from 0 to 1,500 rpm, more torque than conventional gasoline or diesel vehicles can achieve at those engine speeds (Display 20). To date, most automakers have
Gasoline Engines Rev to Maximum Speed and Power

Illustrative Horsepower and Torque Curves
250 200 Horsepower (hp) 150 100 Torque 50 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 RPM Based on 1999 Chevy Neon Source: Ed Lansinger, Horsepower vs.Torque, Allpar.com
* Horsepower is equal to (torque x rpm)/5250.
Horsepower
5,000
6,000
7,000
parable gasoline vehicle. With supply far below demand, the premiums have been stable to rising. But their cost of production has fallen sharply: Prius production costs have fallen by more than 50% over the last seven years. Toyota is targeting a further 50% cost reduction with the nextgeneration Prius, which is targeted for launch in 2008. According to studies commissioned by the California State Energy Commission and California Air Resources Board, automakers and hybrid component manufacturers expect hybrid costs to decline by about 30% to 50% per generation at least until 2012.53 Their estimates assume steady increases in sales volumes due to scale, learning
curve effects, and improved technology and design. Several automakers and auto parts suppliers, as well as academic studies, have conrmed this projected cost curve.54 We estimate that by 2010, the cost premium of a typical hybrid power train will fall to about $2,000 (all else being equal), largely due to a sharp drop in component costs. Other potential opportunities to reduce costs include eliminating the transmission in current vehicles and the lead acid battery. Automakers will also utilize smaller, lesser expensive engines without sacricing performance, because the electric motor more than compensates.
20
Display 20
Hybrids More Quickly Gain Power and Speed

Mid-Size Power Train Comparison Diesel (Turbo) Maximum Power Maximum Torque Acceleration (seconds from 0 to 60 mph) Combined MPG (city/highway) 134 hp @ 4,000 rpm 247 ft lb @ 1,800 rpm 10.5 32.5 (27/38) Gasoline 160 hp @ 5,700 rpm 163 ft lb @ 4,000 rpm 8.8 29 (24/34) Hybrid (Gasoline) 188 hp @ 4,0004,500 rpm 203 ft lb @01,500 rpm 8.5 40 (43/37)
Diesel (turbo) vehicle represented by Volkswagen Passat; gasoline-powered vehicle by Toyota Camry and hybrid (gasoline) by Toyota Camry. All three have 4 cylinders; Passat has 2-liter engine; both Camrys have 2.4-liter engines. Source: ConsumerGuide, Greencarcongress.com and Toyota
not released data regarding total system-level torque for their hybrid vehicles, therefore we cannot draw an exact torque curve.* We can say, however, that the torque of the motor is likely to dominate the system at low rpm, while the torque of the gas engine will likely dominate at higher rpm. This suggests gasoline hybrids have higher torque at low rpm, though lower torque at high rpm than their traditional diesel and gasoline engine counterparts. Lower torque at high rpm is not a limiting factor for the performance of most hybrids, since many offset this disadvantage with the ability to rev their engines to high rpm ranges, which enables them to generate higher system horsepower than their diesel or gasoline counterparts and hence have better acceleration over the rpm curve. For example, the Camry hybrid produces maximum horsepower of 188 hp after 4,000 rpm, considerably more than the
gasoline Camry or the diesel Passat. Moreover, the horsepower achieved by the Toyota hybrid system stays relatively at at high vehicle speeds, as the system holds the engine at its optimum speed for fuel efciency and draws on the motor for additional power. In conventional vehicles, horsepower falls sharply after reaching a certain rpm. It is the combination of the motor and engine working together that allows the hybrid to achieve high horsepower at faster vehicle speeds, resulting in quick acceleration from 0 to 60 miles per hour and impressive highspeed acceleration (as is needed for passing on the highway), while achieving superior fuel efciency versus other power trains.55
* We can not accurately estimate the system torque using the standard
equation, since hybrids that employ CVTs or e-CVTs have both mechanical and electrical power inputs and outputs and the electrical part is too variable for consistent measurement. While it is best to compare vehicles with the same number of cylinders, liters and displacement, lack of data make such comparisons impossible.
Manufacturers are likely to still try to charge a premium for these vehicles; we expect consumers to be willing to pay this premium to gain increased efciency, better performance, more advanced safety and luxury features, higher resale values and reduced maintenance costs. Over time, hybrids may actually offer higher margins than conventional vehicles for automakers farther down the hybrid cost curve. We predict that auto companies that cannot offer a wide range of hybrids will lose market share or be forced to cut prices and margins to compete. While automakers do not release data on the protability of individual models, our research suggests that today,
only Toyota and Honda are making prots on hybrids, although their prots per hybrid vehicle sold are subpar. Toyotas protability is rooted in its highly efcient and exible manufacturing operation and its higher volumes; Hondas protability reects its focus on mild hybrids, which are less expensive to produce. Toyota is likely to be garnering higher prots on its Lexus RX 400h than on the Prius, since the Lexus hybrid is only sold with a wide array of high-margin extras, such as leather seats and advanced audio and navigation systems. With demand outstripping supply, Toyota could raise prices to increase prots on the Prius, but has chosen not to, in (continued on page 24)
THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC POLICY

For nearly a 100 years, governments around the world have recognized that depending on a single scarce resourceoilcould have signicant implications for economic and employment growth and competitiveness, as well as the environment and national security (if the resource was sourced abroad). Since the oil price shocks of the 1970s and 1980s, governments have adopted a wide range of policies to reduce oil dependency. In response to the oil shocks of the 1970s, the US passed fuel-economy standards. Brazil mandated the production and distribution of sugarcanebased ethanol and encouraged the use of exfuel cars. Many European nations adopted high taxes to encourage a shift to diesel, and Japan and other countries adopted taxes to promote smaller, fuel-efcient cars. Many countries have also set explicit standards to improve air quality and reduce climate-change pressures, often implicitly targeting fuel economy in the process. Many countries have also pursued policies to nurture, advance or protect their domestic auto industries; these policies have sometimes conicted with and at other times furthered their energy policies. Many of these policies have been successful. Automobile fuel economy in the US improved by nearly 70% from 1975 to 1987. (Progress on automobile fuel economy ceased after 1987 with the surge in sales of SUVs, which were exempt from the fuel-economy standards.) In Brazil, 70% percent of new cars sold employ ex-fuel technology. In Europe, more than 50% of new light-duty vehicles sold are diesel-powered. We expect government policy with respect to hybrid vehicles to accelerate mass adoption that would otherwise occur more gradually as economies of scale eroded the price premium and as hybrids technological superiority became widely appreciated. In monitoring the likely speed of mass adoption, there are several different types of policies to watch: purchase incentives, fuel and vehicle taxes, mandated purchases by eets, and fuel-economy and/or clean-air standards.
Purchase Incentives With the Energy Act of 2006, the US is offering federal tax credits of $250 to $3,400 per hybrid vehicle purchased, depending on their fuel economy. However, in an effort to help US automakers catch up with Japanese counterparts that currently lead in hybrids, the credits only apply until a given manufacturer reaches 60,000 in hybrid sales; thereafter, the credits are gradually eliminated. If, as some people fear, hybrid purchasers who are subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT) cannot receive the tax credits, the credits would have less stimulative impact on hybrid sales. Exempting hybrid purchases from the AMT would require a congressional action. Most policy analysts believe this is unlikely to occur.
Many state governments in the US are also offering state tax credits or deductions for hybrid purchasers; they range in size from $300 in Maine to $4,713 in Colorado.56 Ten states and eight local governments also offer or plan to offer such benets as reduced parking, registration, taxes and/or toll fees for hybrids. Maryland and Washington may offer exemptions from emissions testing. Other states may join California and Virgina in offering access to high-occupancy lanes regardless of the number of passengers. A few states also have specic tax incentives aimed at private eet owners.57 In Japan, tax credits of up to $3,500 have been available to hybrid buyers since 1998, but are now being phased out. Germany and the Netherlands offer tax incentives of about $500 for clean vehicles, such as hybrids.58 Some European automakers are reportedly lobbying to have hybrid incentives eliminated, since their Japanese competitors have a signicant technological lead in hybrids.
Indirect Tax Incentives In many countries, ownership taxescharges on the acquisition, registration, inspection and retention of a vehiclevary based on the fuel, engine size, efciency or emissions of a given vehicle. Fuel taxes levied at the pump also vary by fuel type to stimulate purchase of one over another. For instance,
22
many European countries have much lower ownership and fuel taxes for diesel than they do for gasoline in order to encourage a shift to more fuel-efcient diesel vehicles. Europes relatively high fuel taxes versus those in the US are a way to discourage driving altogether. In Europe, China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, taxes are lower for smaller, fuel-efcient cars. In the US, the so-called gas-guzzler tax aims to discourage use of the most fuel-inefcient vehicles. London, Stockholm, Singapore and other cities have also implemented congestion taxes to reduce trafc and travel times, and improve air quality. London charges drivers 8 ($14.25) on weekdays and 3 ($5.35) on weekends. It has recently agreed to waive the tax for fuel-efcient hybrids. Private eet owners are reported to be extremely interested in hybrids as a result.
Mandated Purchases US federal eets are required to select the most fuel-efcient vehicles. Under Executive Order 13149 (signed April 2000), each federal agency with an operating eet of 20 or more vehicles was charged with reducing its oil consumption by at least 20% from baseline levels. Switching to hybrid vehicles is among the options permitted. Several states also mandate the purchase of hybrid vehicles: Massachusetts requires that, starting in 2010, 5% of all new state eet vehicles purchased be hybrids.59
The most important is Californias requirement that 10% of all new vehicles sold by automakers be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs).60 The mandate has been effectively softened to allow 2% ZEV, 2% advanced technology partial zero-emission vehicles (AT-PZEV) and 6% partial zero-emission vehicles (PZEV). Measurement of the target has also been weakened: Instead of counting vehicles sold by type, each sale earns credits toward the target according to a complex formula. Many of todays hybrids qualify as AT-PZEV; future plug-ins may qualify for either AT-PZEV or ZEV, depending on the electric driving range achieved. However, plug-in hybrids will earn automakers much higher credits than a PZEV. Maine, Massachusetts, New York and Vermont have expressed an interest in adopting Californias ZEV policy, but court challenges could invalidate it.
Standards Automobile fuel-economy standards have proven to be very effective in reducing oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions from the transposition sector in many parts of the world. Most countries have fuel-economy standards; only the EU and California have greenhouse gas standards (Display 21). The Pew Center has found that EU standards will be the most stringent, followed by those in Japan, China and California.61 The least stringent standards are within
Display 21
MPGConverted to CAFE Cycle
New York requires that, starting in 2010, all state vehicles purchased be clean; hybrids qualify. Connecticut requires state agencies to purchase light-duty vehicles that are fuel efcient, dened as 40 miles per gallon or more. San Francisco requires all city-owned cars and light trucks to be low-emission vehicles, such as hybrids. In New York City, the Taxi & Limousine Commission is evaluating a mandated conversion to hybrids over the next ve to 10 years. Other taxi commissions could follow suit; in Japan and India, some have converted to liquied petroleum gas or compressed natural gas. Some broad mandates addressing several types of clean vehicles could also increase hybrid sales and spur additional hybrid research and development.
US Federal Fuel-Economy Standards Lag Far Behind

Global Comparison of Stringency of Fuel-Economy Standards
60 EU 50 Japan
40
China Australia Canada US
California
30
20 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Year Source: Feng An, Pew Center for Global Change and WRI Capital Markets Research
23
(continued from page 21) order to establish a strong foundation for future market growth. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Honda and Toyota are also beneting from their hybrid offerings through increased trafc to their show rooms. Other automakers, such as Ford and Nissan, are probably losing money on their hybrids because they are paying relatively high license fees to Toyota for components. Honda has yet to license its systems to other automakers. New entrants to the hybrid market will likely face
losses or lower prots per hybrid vehicle sold until they or their suppliers climb further up the learning curve and achieve greater economies of scale. Despite the near-term limited prot prole of this market, the longer-term growth opportunity it represents requires continued investment by all automakers. We expect that over time, success in this segment will have a signicant impact on stock-price performance for both automakers and their suppliers.
24
HYBRID SYSTEM COMPONENTS

The main components of hybrid systems are batteries and related electrical systems, electric motors/generators, power-split device, and power and control and other electronics. For a compact or mid-compact full-hybrid, we estimate these components cost automakers about $4,500-$6,00062 (Display 22).
Display 22
Unlike lead acid batteries, nickel batteries are environmentally benign, yet they have twice the energy density (energy held relative to weight) of a lead acid battery, and three times the power density (speed of energy release). Nickel batteries perform well through many cycles of charge and discharge, and most manufacturers provide warranties for eight to 10 years in the US; lab tests suggest a 10 to 15 year life is possible. To last this long, nickel batteries must be kept in an ideal state of charge, which the battery control unit ensures. In the Prius, the battery system only uses 20% to 25% of the batterys energy in order to maintain the charge necessary for optimal power over its long life. While nickel batteries tend to lose some power after extensive use, having more cells than needed at the beginning ensures sufcient capacity throughout operation. To date, most automakers pursuing the hybrid market have focused on maximizing the power density of hybrid batteries, since higher power densities enable a hybrids electric motor to accelerate faster and boosts fuel efciency by displacing the gas engine during low-speed acceleration. By contrast, batteries developed for pure electric vehicles (with no gasoline or diesel engine) have emphasized energy density since they require the greatest possible range between rechargings to be practical. Given the energy density limitations of todays battery technologies, we do not expect pure electric vehicles to be a feasible mass-market alternative within the next decade. Manufacturers of hybrid batteries have been able to reduce costs and enhance performance in recent years (Display 23). Cost and performancein terms of
Display 23
Hybrids Price Premium Has Several Sources

Manufacturers Cost of Components Battery and Related Electrical Systems Electric Motor and Generator Power-Split Device Electronics (Power, Control and Other) Savings (Smaller Engine, Transmission) Total Added Costs in 2005 Estimated Added Costs in 2010 2005 $1,400$2,500 $900$1,300 $500$1,000 $2,000$2,100 ($300$900) $4,500$6,000 $2,000
Sources: California Energy Commission, Energy Conversion Devices, Energy and Environmental Analysis, JPMorgan, University of Michigan Transportation Institute and SAFT
Toyota and Honda now manufacture many of these components themselves or through in-group companies; Ford and Nissan are licensing systems and buying parts from Toyota and its group companies; GM and DaimlerChrysler are seeking to share parts and technology. Peugeot, Volkswagen and others are turning to independent suppliers for hybrid expertise. As one would expect, traditional auto suppliers, as well as new entrants, are trying to capture this new and growing market. Here are the various components of the hybrid system.
Battery Systems and Related Electrical Systems The most expensive single hybrid component is the energy storage system, which includes a battery pack (containing 100 to 250 cells), a cooling system and a battery control unit. Together, these parts represent about 30% to 50% of the total cost of a hybrid system today.
Hybrid Batteries Are Getting Better and Cheaper

Evolution of the Prius Hybrid Battery
80 60 Weight (kg) 40 20 Weight 0 1998 Source: AABC (2005) and Toyota 2001 2004 Power 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Power (w/kg)
By denition, batteries facilitate electrochemical reactions in which electrons ow from negative to positive materials to discharge energy in the form of direct electric current. In rechargeable batteries, electrons also ow in reverse from positive to negative materials to store energy.The battery chemistry that dominates the hybrid-vehicle market today uses nickel metal hydride (NiMH), rather than the lead acid used in traditional auto batteries, or the lithium batteries used in lap-top computers and cell phones.
25
Display 24
Costs for New Products Tend to Fall Rapidly

Consumer Batteries: Lithium-Ion
200 Energy Density (wh/kg) 150 Energy Density 100 50 0 Cost 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 0.0 Cost ($/wh)
< $200 million
>$4 Billion Annual Sales
Lithium batteries have many advantages. They offer twice the energy density and two to three times the power density of nickel batteries. This means that, for any target level of performance, they are lighter and smaller than nickel batteries, which enhances fuel efciency and allows greater exibility in design. At the 2006 North American Auto Show, Johnson Controls displayed a lithium battery that was 50% lighter and 30% smaller than a nickel battery of comparable power and energy density. Preliminary data suggest that lithiumbased batteries last through more cycles of charging and discharging, charge faster, and allow for charge and discharge at deeper levels, which should be helpful in the next generation of hybrids. Their drawbacks are safety and cost. The safety issue arises because traditional lithium batteries use lithium cobalt oxide, which can explode. Explosions occur if charging and dischargingparticularly overcharging or high-temperature chargingcause degradation that allows oxygen to escape and react with lithium ions or electrolytes.63 Many companies are actively searching for practical solutions to overcome this well-known risk. Two approaches that appear to be making progress involve substituting other materials for cobalt oxide. The rst entails replacing the cobalt oxide with either manganese oxide (spinel), a combination of nickel, cobalt and manganese (NCM), or a combination of nickel, cobalt and aluminum (NCA). This approach has garnered substantial research dollars; automakers have used it in several vehicle prototypes. The other approach involves replacing the cobalt oxide with a phosphate-based cathode material. Phosphates are more stable in overcharge or short-circuit conditions and are less prone to thermal runaway and combustion. Several companies have demonstrated some success with this approach in power tools and vehicle prototypes. Both approaches, however, increase charge times and cost, while somewhat decreasing battery life and performance. Other more experimental approaches involve the use of lithium polymers and lithium sulfur. They potentially offer greater energy densities, but are too early stage to evaluate.
Source: AABC (2005), AC Propulsion and AllianceBernstein
energy, power and volume/weightimprove about 10% per year, depending on which attribute manufactures are seeking to optimize and the scale of production. Tradeoffs inherent in battery design make it difcult to improve all variables simultaneously, but better performance on multiple fronts is likely over the next several years. Industry executives expect costs to fall by up to half the current level of $1,400 to $2,500 per vehicle for a midsize passenger car as production reaches high volumes.* Although the large cost reduction envisioned may seem optimistic, costs for consumer lithium batteries fell far more86%as manufacturers achieved economies of scale (Display 24). Many analysts think that batteries are the limiting factor in the proliferation of hybrid technology: The nickel batteries available today simply do not offer enough energy storage or power to allow a vehicle to run long distances on electricity alone, which is key to higher fuel efciency. We disagree. To date, investment in improving battery technology has been restrained in anticipation of technological advances in composite materials, particularly lithium. We expect signicant performance improvements as lithium-based batteries replace nickelbased batteries before the end of this decade.
* With annual global hybrid sales under 500,000 per annum and therefore
fairly limited economies of scale, the aggregate cost of the nickel battery pack used in todays hybrids is currently estimated at about $1,400 to $2,500 per vehicle. The actual cost depends on how much assembly and integration an automaker does. A completely outsourced solution could cost the automaker $2,500 or more.
Full disclosure: AllianceBernstein has invested in A123Systems, a private
Massachusetts-based developer of a new generation of lithium-ion batteries.
26
Industry experts expect lithium batteries to initially cost as much as 30% more than nickel batteries, but to become cheaper with scale production. 64 Some experts believe that if they attain comparable scale production, lithium batteries could be substantially cheaper than nickel batteries with similar performance attributes, or offer signicantly higher performance attributes at equivalent cost. After extensive research on this subject, we are optimistic that the higher cost of lithium batteries will be more than offset by their superior characteristics, and that some kind of lithium battery will become the standard for hybrid vehicles. Today only a few rms produce batteries for hybrid vehicles: Panasonic EV, a joint venture between Matsushita Electric Industrial and Toyota Motors, accounts for 70% to 80% of total capacity. The rest of the market is divided among three players: Sanyo; Cobasys, a joint venture between ChevronTexaco and Energy Conversion Devices; and a newly formed joint venture between Johnson Controls and SAFT. We expect the number of battery manufacturers to increase as the shift to lithium takes place and the market grows. Hitachi, NEC and Toshiba have also announced lithium-battery research projects.
Electric Motors and Generators These are the primary workhorses in a hybrid vehicle. The generators draw on the engine to create high power output by rotating at fast speeds to charge the batteries and operate the motors. The motors produce the torque to drive the wheels. There are several types of motors and generators: induction, permanent magnet and switched reluctance. Each requires the presence of a magnetic eld. Induction and reluctance motors use electronic circuits to create a magnetic eld, while permanent magnet motors use permanent magnets for this purpose.
Focused on fuel efciency, Honda and Toyota have used permanent magnet motors in their hybrid vehicles. Since motors in full hybrids need to have the power to propel one to two tons, they need to produce considerable torque; doing so requires over a kilogram of neodymium, one of the strongest magnets available.66 Generators and other electric applications, such as electric steering, also require magnets.67 We estimate that Toyotas hybrids use about one to two kilograms of neodymium per vehicle at a cost of $100 to $200, largely depending on the number of motors they have. Toyota hybrids also employ a high-voltage power circuit to boost the voltage of the generator, which further increases efciency. Since power is equal to voltage multiplied by current, doubling the voltage results in a 50% reduction in current if the power to propel a vehicle stays constant. And because energy loss is equal to current squared multiplied by resistance, a 50% reduction in current produces a 25% reduction in energy loss (efciency gain) if resistance is held constant.68
Power-Split Devices Power-split devices, which are modied planetary-gear systems, are robust ways to optimize the transmission function in full hybrids for fuel efciency and performance. They replace the traditional transmission, acting as a virtual gearbox between the engine, motor and generator. They allow the motor and engine to power the vehicle separately or jointly, in innitely variable ratios, without a hitch.
The power-split device links the engine, generator, electric motor and drive shaft, which drives the wheels. It also divides the power of the engine into two paths: a mechanical route and electrical route (Display 25). The mechanical route connects the engine to the wheels and
Display 25
The critical factors for these components are efciency, power, cost, controllability and durability. Permanent magnet motors are more efcient, especially at lower speeds and lighter loads, and more controllable; however, they are also more expensive than their counterparts.65 Induction motors are less efcient than permanent magnet motors because they circulate an induced current over the rotors to generate a magnetic eld; this undermines the structural efciency of the motor. Switched reluctance motors are less efcient than permanent magnet motors and less controllable, which results in noise and oscillation problems.
Hybrid Power Trains: A Schematic

Mechanical power Electric power
Battery Inverter Motor
Generator Engine Power-split device
Drive wheels
Source:Toyota Motors
27
to the generator; the electrical route connects the generator to the battery and the motor, which can also drive the wheels via the drive shaft. With the use of electrical controls, the power-split device can continuously vary the ratio of power going to the wheels and the generator. As a result, it can change a vehicles speed by either continuously varying the rpm of the engine or the rpm of the generator and electric motor. The main value of this design is that engine speed can operate independently of vehicle speed. As a result, the power-split device can run the gas engine very efciently by constantly maintaining the engine at its optimal speed, adjusting the speed of the generator and motor as driving conditions warrant. When required, the device can speed up the generator and use the greater output to deliver more power from the electrical motor to drive the vehiclein an instant. Additionally, the device can supplement the generators own power with power from the battery system. If the battery has low charge, surplus power from the engine can be used simultaneously to power the motor via the generator, drive the wheels and charge the battery. If even more power is required, the engine can be called upon to provide additional power, and even speed up to provide greater output (in this instance at the expense of fuel efciency). As a result, the power-split device improves both fuel efciency and acceleration time. Lastly, the power-split device is readily scalable. It can be used on a variety of automotive models, because it can accommodate greater power requirements without meaningful loss of fuel economy. With this system, automakers can continue to build hybrids with greater power by using higher output generators and motors, and/or increasing the voltage in the system by installing more powerful batteries or circuits. These actions allow the electrical motors to drive the vehicles to higher speeds before the gasoline engines kick in, helping to increase performance while maintaining or increasing fuel efciency. By contrast, the typical path to better performance in conventional vehicles is to employ a larger, more powerful engine, usually at the expense of fuel efciency. Since Toyota appears to have strong patent protection around this component technology, other automakers may seek to use either continuously variable, dual clutch or conventional automatic transmissions. Should the fuel efciency, performance or reliability of these other transmission solutions not match the robustness of the power-split device, it is conceivable that other automakers may seek to license the technology from Toyota.
Electronics (Power, Control and Other) These components efciently regulate the power within a hybrid system by managing the ow of voltage and current among components. In conventional vehicles, electronic control units control airbags, batteries, brake systems, engines, locks, navigation systems, windows and other devices.
In hybrid vehicles, an additional electronic control unit serves as the brain of the hybrid, managing the power ow among the battery, generator, motor and transmission or power-split device. By constantly monitoring driving conditions and switching from motor to engine accordingly, the control unit enables hybrid vehicles to optimize power and fuel consumption.The inverter controls and delivers electric power from the direct-current battery to the alternating-current motor.The converter receives high-voltage direct current (typically up to 300 volts) from the main hybrid battery and produces low-voltage direct current (typically 12 volt) for the lead-acid battery to help power headlamps and other low-voltage equipment.This is necessary since the lead-acid battery is no longer charged directly by the engine, but rather by the hybrid battery. The insulated gate bi-polar transistor is a semiconductor-switching device that controls the highly variable electricity ow among the motor, generator and battery. The transistor also boosts the voltage from the battery and converts the boosted direct current into alternating current, supplying drive power to the motor. For instance, in the Prius, the transistors enable a voltage increase from 204 to 500 volts, resulting in a substantial increase in motor output without an increase in battery output or motor size.69 By using higher voltages at low currents with minimum heat loss, these transistors allow hybrids to use more power with higher efciency. Since 1994, these transistors have been used for an increased variety of applications in addition to transportation. Consequently, their size has decreased by about 66% and their prices have fallen signicantly. The wire harness and safety circuit make wiring smaller, lighter, safer and more compact. This is crucial, because the average passenger sedan has over 1,000 electrical wires totaling a mile in length and weighing several hundred pounds; hybrid vehicles have even more wire.70 With so much wiring onboard, hybrids need to have many safety circuits to prevent potential damage from a short circuit. Engineers are now trying to reduce the size and weight of wiring by using lighter materials, new technologies and networks that can send multiple signals on a given wire, which should also decrease costs.
The costs of non-battery hybrid components are likely to decline rapidly as automakers outsource production, expand volumes and invest more heavily in component research. As with other electronic products, standardization, modulation and/or miniaturization, and competition are likely to drive down prices as systems mature. Many auto-part suppliers and consumer-electronic companies have already expressed interest in entering the hybrid market. Some of the latter would be new entrants to the automobile market attracted by the more predictable growth and prot prole of the auto sector versus traditional consumer electronics. Furthermore, the Taiwanese government, forecasting that auto electronics would be the next $1 trillion market, is encour-
aging local semiconductor and technology companies to enter this market by helping them meet automakers requirements for tier one suppliers.71 Assuming that volumes increase, we expect cost reductions of about 30% to 50% every few years for hybrid systems, in line with the historical experience of introducing other power trains and automotive electronic systems. As previously noted, the cost of lithium-ion batteries for consumer applications fell by 86% in less than a decade after their introduction. Additionally, Densos costs for common-rail diesel and car-navigation systems have fallen by about 50% with volume increases over the past seven to eight years.72
29
ELECTRIFICATION OF THE AUTOMOBILE

For decades, automobiles were almost entirely mechanical devices. Over the course of the last three decades, however, an increasing number of systems and functions have become electronically controlled. Electronic components provide more precise control, greater reliability and higher efciencies by eliminating loss due to friction. They are also less expensive, because they are smaller and lighter. X-by-wire is a generic term to describe the displacement of mechanical systems by electronic components such as sensors, controllers, power circuits, motors and actuators. In 1977, the average value of electronic components per vehicle was $110, well under 5% of the total cost of materials and components to automakers.73 By comparison, todays conventional vehicles contain $1,400 to $1,800 in electronic components, about 10% to 20% of the total cost of materials and components74 (Display 26). In full hybrid models, the electronic content (including the battery and battery control system) costs about $5,900 to $7,800 per vehicle today, or 40% to 50% of the total.75 Vehicle electrication is likely to continue. Industry experts claim that 80% to 90% of automotive innovation is based on electronics;76 they predict that electronics and electrical systems could account for 40% to 50% of the total cost of future conventional vehicles77 and 70% to 80% of the total cost of hybrid vehicles in the next ve to 10 years.78 Freescale, a leading automotive semiconductor supplier, notes that electronic innovation may lead to smart vehicles capable of acting autonomously,
Display 26
resulting in safer, more comfortable and more efcient driving. CLSA, a nancial rm, estimates that the expected annual long-term growth rate for the auto-electronics market is 8% to 15%.79 The semiconductor content of the vehicle is also increasing rapidly. Semiconductors presently account for $225 to $300 of the cost per nonhybrid vehicle today, and $525 to $900 per hybrid vehicle, depending on the number of electrical motors/generators used.80 The automotive-semiconductor market is estimated to have $15 billion to $20 billion in annual revenues, with an anticipated long-term growth rate of 8% to 11%.81 The growth rates for the auto-electronics and auto-semiconductor markets would substantially exceed these forecasts if our projections of hybrid penetration prove to be correct. Sensors are used to monitor and analyze data to help the driver and/or the vehicle make faster decisions. Today, there are between 100 and 200 sensors in a vehicle, with luxury vehicles at the top end of the range, versus 50 to 100 per vehicle ve years ago.82 Sensors make possible anti-lock brakes, air bags, battery monitoring, air quality and climate control, crash-avoidance systems, electronic stability control, engine management, lane-departure warnings and tire-pressure monitoring. Similarly, the number of microcontrollers per car has increased from 3 to 20 a decade ago83 to about 30 to 70 today.84 Advances in semiconductor technology have made possible more affordable, dependable, and powerful microcontrollers and microprocessors that are able to perform tasks previously done by mechanical systems, as well as entirely new tasks. For instance, the microprocessor transistor count has risen from one million in 1997 to over 30 million today.85 Todays engine controllers optimize fuel and air intake combinations to maximize gas mileage and minimize emissions based on tables with several thousand entries. In the future, these controllers may factor in temperature, humidity, gasoline quality and the vehicles weight, speed and age to adjust engine parameters in real time. Microcontrollers are more reliable, cheaper and lighter than the relays, switches and other mechanical parts they displace.
Electronic Content of Hybrids Is Huge

Cost of Electronics as % of Vehicle Cost*
Hybrids 45% Conventional Vehicles 15% 5% 1977 2005 2005
*Excludes auto manufacturers nal assembly costs Source: CSLA, Leen and Heffernan, Merrill Lynch and AllianceBernstein
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Display 27
How Electronics Are Displacing Mechanical Functions

Mechanical Displacement Steering-by-wire Description Replaces traditional hydraulic steering system (consisting of a hydraulic pump, fluid, hoses and fluid reservoirs) with a fault-tolerant controller and electrical motors. Benefits Smaller and lighter (and hence more fuel efficient), safer, more responsive and more reliable. May be paired with electronic vehicle-stability and skidcontrol systems. The motors are powered by the cars battery and not the engine, which also improves fuel efficiency. More efficient than traditional throttle systems and safer; provides electronic stability and traction control. Enhances driver control in braking, provides greater uniformity in distribution of brake force, and enhances stability and traction control. Improves efficiency and performance. Improves vehicle stability by active support of wheel traction and by counter adjustments to pitch and roll when braking or cornering. Reduces part count, weight and cost, and offers fast start times, stop/start and regenerative braking capabilities. Improves fuel efficiency and lowers emissions. Improves fuel efficiency and performance; reduces emissions. Reduces emissions by more quickly achieving high temperatures.
Throttle-by-wire
Replaces cable that connects throttle valve and gas pedal with an electrical connection. Replaces hydraulic-braking system with an electrical-component system that connects the four brake corners with the brake pedal and each other. Replaces conventional transmissions with electronically controlled variable transmissions. Replaces mechanical damping with active electronic control of damping stiffness. Combines the alternator and starter functions into an electrical generator.
Braking-by-wire
Shift-by-wire Suspension-by-wire
Integrated starter/alternator
Variable valve control
Replaces cams on an engine-powered camshaft with electrical control from the motor; each cam and perhaps each valve can be powered separately. Replaces the mechanical heating of catalysts needed to convert emissions into safe by-products.
Electric catalytic converters Electric devices
Replaces belts connecting air conditioners, oil pumps, Virtually no impact on performance, but better cooling fans and water pumps to the engine for fuel efficiency. power; provides power from electric motor/generator. Replaces mechanical processes with electrical power and adds new functionality. Greater comfort, efficiency and integration of systems.
Electrical accessories (heated windshields, advanced seats and personal settings)
Source: Jim Lipman Silicon Fuels the Automative Industry SemiView, March 29, 2004, Nathan Trevatt, X-by-Wire, New Technologies for 42V Bus Automobile of the Future, (2002), and Nico Kelling and Patrick Letinturier, Inneon Technologies, X-by-Wire: Opportunities, Challenges, and Trends (SAE, 2003)
The demand for electrical power within vehicles is increasing at about 4% per year, putting increasing pressure on the 12-volt architecture of automobiles today.* Hybrids are better positioned than conventional vehicles to accommodate more electrical systems because they can use their hybrid batteries for power. Thus, they are likely to be the rst vehicles to electrify braking and steering, as well as pumps, valves, suspensions and other mechanical systems (Display 27). Toyota already offers many of these electric systems in its hybrids. Conventional vehicles could only follow suit if they convert to a battery system with 42 or more volts. While conver* Leen and Heffernan (2002). The pressure has eased more recently through
sion to a 42-volt system was much discussed several years ago, automakers appear to be cautious: They would rather wait until demand growth stabilizes and convert only once, perhaps directly to a 300volt battery. Hybrids already use 300-volt batteries, which could pressure automakers to convert to a new standard sooner in conventional vehicles as consumers discover the benets of electrication. Providers of electronics and semiconductors for the automotive market should benet immensely from this trend and from further penetration of hybrids. Sales to the automobile sector tend to be more stable (because automotive sales contracts typically deliver benets over the vehicles product life) and more protable for vendors than sales to many other consumer markets.
increased design efficiency via circuits and wiring, but this may be short-lived if power demand continues to rise.
IMPLICATIONS OF HYBRIDS FOR OIL DEMAND

Display 28
To date, most demand for hybrid vehicles has come from consumers particularly concerned about fuel efciency and environmental impact. The limited supply of vehicles and general lack of market knowledge/understanding makes it difcult to gauge the true extent of demand. In the near term, we expect the strongest demand for hybrid vehicles to come from those individuals or organizations most likely to recoup the upfront price premium quickly through fuel savings: those with aboveaverage travel per vehicle, such as government, police and commercial eet drivers, including taxis and delivery personnel. Fleet vehicles with extensive stop-and-go city driving are particularly likely to see the benets. In the US, the high-travel segment, comprising business and government eets and high-travel individuals, represents 30% of new light-duty vehicle sales annually (Display 28). Fleet vehicles represent most of these sales.They typically drive an estimated 15,000 to 54,000 miles per year.We estimate that high-travel individuals, who account for about 10% of all personal travelers in the US, represent 8% of light-duty vehicle sales per year.This segment drives an estimated 26,250 miles per vehicle per year, more than double the 12,500 miles per vehicle per year average for light-duty vehicles.86 Since most countries around the world do not report vehicle sales or miles driven by the high-travel segment, we have had to use the US data as a global proxy.
Display 29
Adoption Will Be Fastest in High-Travel Segments...

Annual Miles Driven (US)
54,000 18,250 Rental 26,460 15,000 Taxis Govt 32,120 26,250 Weighted Avg. 25,000
Business
Police
Commerical
Government
High Personal Travel
...in Aggregate a Significant Part of US New Vehicle Sales

Share of New US Sales
Rental 13% Commerical 7% Government 2% High Personal Travel 8% All other 70%
Miles traveled was increased by 0.5% per year to reect current year. Source: Argonne National Laboratory, Center for Automotive Safety, Ford, Hertz, US Department of Transportation and AllianceBernstein.
Contrary to popular belief, both commercial and government eets have tended to be early adopters of new technologies, even when the initial costs were high, if the operating costs and tax incentives were attractive. For instance, in Great Britain, following the introduction of
For Taxis, the Payback on Price Premium Is Very Rapid

Hybrid Analysis by NYC Taxi & Limousine Commission Baseline Vehicle Model Make Tank Size Fill Cost ($2.97/gal) MPG (City) Miles per Tank Gas Cost/Year* Savings Purchase Price Premium (as per April 2006 Consumer Reports) Implied Payback (Period) (Excludes Tax Incentives) Ford Crown Victoria 19.0 $56 18 342 $7,259 n/a $27,570 Ford Escape 16.5 $49 36 594 $3,629 $(3,630) $26,900 $6,322 1.7 Toyota Highlander 17.2 $51 33 568 $3,959 $(3,300) $33,030 $7,185 2.2 Toyota Prius 11.9 $35 60 714 $2,178 $(5,081) $20,975 $5,698 1.1 Hybrid Honda Accord 11.1 $51 29 496 $4,505 $(2,754) $30,140 $5,678 2.1 Honda Civic 11.9 $35 47 559 $2,780 $(4,479) $19,900 $3,976 0.9 Lexus RX 400h 17.2 $51 31 533 $4,215 $(3,044) $49,060 $8,765 2.9
All data in rst seven rows from the NYC Taxi & Limousine Commission analysis. *Assumes each taxi travels 43,992 miles per year Source: Consumer Reports, New York City Taxi & Limousine Commission and AllianceBernstein
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common-rail diesel systems, the share of diesels steadily increased from 16% in 1997 to 37% in 2005; nearly 70% of the incremental growth in diesel sales came from eets.87 The diesel systems cost more upfront (an estimated $1,000 to $2,000 more) but offered reduced fuel bills due to improved fuel efciency and somewhat lower registration taxes.The UK is one of the few countries in Europe where diesel is not cheaper than gasoline at the pump, so the conversion to the diesel from gasoline was mainly due to the fuel-efciency benet, not tax incentives. Similarly, we expect eets to embrace hybrids despite the upfront premium because it will be offset relatively quickly by reduced fuel bills. A recent study by the New York City Taxi & Limousine Commission suggests that taxis in New York City could recoup the hybrid price premium for hybrids today in two years or less through fuel savings of $3,000 to $5,000 per yeareven without federal and state subsidies (Display 29). The study rather conservatively estimated only 44,000 annual miles of driving per taxi.88 We expect mainstream buyers looking for performance plus improved fuel efciency to begin to adopt hybrids en masse after hybrids improve and their price premium is somewhat eroded by economies of scale. Our forecast of staggered adoption, with high-travel segments coming rst, implies a greater near-term impact on aggregate oil demand from hybrids than most observers currently expect. Most forecasts look at the impact of hybrids on oil demand by focusing only on the number of new hybrids purchased and the improvement in fuel efciency. But if the rst hybrid buyers drive two or three times as many miles per year (on average), the fuel savings would be roughly two or three times as great. How much stop-and-go driving they do would also have an impact. Rapid, widespread adoption of hybrids, of course, will have a much greater impact on oil consumption, although less impact per vehicle sold. We looked at a variety of scenarios to assess the potential impact. For example, if mass adoption is driven primarily by concerns for maximum fuel efciency, the impact would be far greater than if performance-improvement was the main attraction. Even in the latter case, however, we estimate that the average hybrid vehicle is likely to be about 50% more fuel efcient than its non-hybrid counterpart, with signicant potential impact on global oil demand. As we have discussed, there are three main variables that determine annual oil demand by cars and light trucks: the number of vehicles on the road (vehicle base), the
average number of miles traveled per vehicle, and the average fuel efciency per vehicle. The equation for calculating oil demand is vehicle base multiplied by average number of miles traveled per vehicle divided by average fuel economy. The signicant differences between our estimates and IEAs estimates of the values of these variables result in dramatically disparate projections for future oil demand from this crucial segment (Display 30).
Display 30
How Our Oil Demand Forecast Assumptions Differ from IEAs

Global Oil Consumption Forecast New Vehicle Sales 2010 2020 2030
All Light-Duty Vehicles (units, mil.) IEA/SMP AB RSC Hybrid Share (% sales) IEA/SMP AB RSC Vehicle Base All Light-Duty Vehicles (units, mil.) IEA/SMP AB RSC Hybrid Share (% base) IEA/SMP AB RSC Miles Traveled All Light-Duty Vehicles (avg. miles per vehicle in base) IEA/SMP AB RSC IEA/SMP AB RSC Fuel Efficiency All Light-Duty Vehicles (avg. mpg per vehicle in base) IEA/SMP AB RSC IEA/SMP AB RSC Global Oil Consumption Light-Duty Vehicles (mbd) IEA/SMP AB RSC 21.8 21.5 27.3 21.5 32.1 16.1 23.1 23.5 32.6 42.6 24.1 30.6 33.9 55.3 25.1 50.0 35.0 62.2 9,293 9,293 9,293 18,895 9,434 9,434 9,434 11,808 9,576 9,576 9,576 11,146 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 30.0% 0.7% 72.0% 833.0 833.0 1,068.6 1,068.6 1,288.6 1,288.6 0.3% 10.6% 0.7% 64.5% 1.0% 85.0% 60.9 60.9 71.5 71.5 87.2 87.2
Hybrids (avg. miles per hybrid in base)
Hybrids (avg. mpg per hybrid in base)
Source: IEA, SMP and AllianceBernstein
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Vehicle Base The IEA forecasts that the installed base of vehicles will grow from about 707 million in 2002 to 1,289 million in 2030, for a compound annual growth rate of 2.2%; this estimate is highly dependent on continued growth in vehicle demand by emerging countries like China and India. For the purposes of this report, we have assumed the IEA is correctly projecting the future aggregate demand for cars and light-duty vehicles.
We differ sharply, however, on hybrid penetration. The IEA assumes that hybrid purchases will remain a niche product, representing only 0.7% of all light-duty vehicles on the road globally in 2030. We expect hybrids to become a mainstay in the auto market: We estimate that they will represent 85% of new vehicle sales and 72% of the installed base by 2030. Our estimate does not distinguish between type of hybrid (series or parallel, full or mild) or fuel source (gasoline, diesel, biofuel, electricity or fuel-cells); it includes all of these combinations.
Miles Traveled As previously explained, IEA and SMP data imply that the average number of miles traveled globally was about 8,800 miles in 2004 and that this will increase at about 0.2% per year to reach 9,600 in 2030.We accept their aggregate forecast, but forecast a short-term divergence in the miles traveled by new hybrid and non-hybrid buyers: Until mass economies of scale kick in, the price premium for hybrids will remain relatively high and therefore early consumers of these vehicles will most likely be in high-travel segments that benet most from the greater fuel efciency of hybrids.
While it may appear that we are forecasting that individual non-hybrid owners will drive less than they do today, this in not the case. Because we use the IEAs estimate for total aggregate miles traveled (e.g., vehicle base multiplied by average miles traveled per vehicle), hybrid adoption by the high-travel segment mathematically results in lower miles traveled for the non-hybrid vehicles. That is to say, the decline in average miles driven per non-hybrid vehicle simply reects a changed mix and not any change in behavior.
Fuel Efficiency The most important driver of the difference between our forecast and the IEAs is our more optimistic assumptions about fuel efciency. The IEA assumes the average on-road mpg of the global base of vehicles will only increase slightly, from 22.7 in 2004 to 25.1 in
Display 31
Key Milestones Ahead: A Road Map to Mass Adoption of Hybrids

Year 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2014 2015 202025 202025 2030 More automakers launch own hybrid systems Tighter diesel standards adopted in US Diesel hybrids introduced Advanced gasoline engines introduced Toyota launches 3rd generation Prius, creating new benchmark Full hybrids become standard in US Lithium-based hybrids launched Tighter diesel standards adopted in Europe Plug-ins commercialized using high-power batteries OEMs will have introduced over 50 hybrid models in US Toyota offers hybrids as option on all models Hybrids take 10.6% share of new sales globally Plug-ins commercialized with electric driving range of 5 to 10 miles Toyota introduces 4th generation Prius Tougher emissions controls due to climate-change concerns Plug-ins driving range increases to 20 to 30 miles Advanced materials introduced Automakers offer hybridization as option on most models Nickel battery displaced Hybrids take 50% share of new sales globally Plug-ins driving range increases to >50 miles Fuel-cell vehicles commercialized Hybrids take 85% share of new sales globally
Early conversion of eets and other high-travel vehicles will frontload the impact of hybrids on aggregate oil demand. Our oil forecast assumes that new hybrids will, on average, travel far more than new conventional vehicles. We estimate that by 2011, the entire stock of hybrids will travel nearly 20,000 miles, versus just under 9,000 for all non-hybrids. This gap will narrow over the next eight years, as a lower price premium induces more ordinary consumers to buy hybrids. The gap will begin to widen again after 2019, as the market migrates to hybrids en masse, largely leaving only the low-travel segment driving conventional vehicles. By 2030, we forecast that 72% of the global vehicle eet will be hybrids, traveling more than 11,000 miles on average and accounting for over 80% of total miles driven and 70% of the gallons consumed. Our forecast takes into account that initial demand for hybrids will most likely be stronger in developed economies, such as the US, where annual miles driven per year is above the global average.
Source: AllianceBernstein
2030. Our estimates assume that the on-road average fuel efciency of the global base of hybrids will increase dramatically, from about 40 miles per gallon in 2004 to about 62 miles per gallon in 2030, due to more efcient batteries, engines and electronic components, as well as safe, lightweight materials, and eventually the introduction of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Since we estimate that by then, hybrid vehicles will represent more than 70% of the global eet, their greater efciency would bring the overall average for the global eet to 50 miles per gallon. Based on our assumptions for the above variables, we estimate that oil demand from the crucial light-duty vehicle segment will reach 16.1 million barrels per day in 2030, about 50% less than the IEAs demand forecast of 32.1 million per day. If plug-in hybrids garner mass acceptance quickly, the gain in fuel efciency would be even greater.
Other Forecast Details As a reference, we have listed some of the milestones related to hybrid development and market penetration we expect in the next 10 years or so (Display 31).This roadmap has assisted us in the formulation of our assumptions. For instance, we expect that lithium-ion batteries will start to be deployed in hybrid vehicles in the 2008/09 model year. Further, we expect plug-in hybrid vehicles to be sold commercially as early as 2009. Both of these developments inform our fuel-efciency assumptions. Similarly, our projection that automakers will offer hybrid versions of most car models by 2013 has a signicant impact on our assumptions about hybrid penetration.
Display 32
Most Automakers Offer Hybrids or Plan to Do So

2006 (Scheduled) DaimlerChrysler: Ram GM: Equinox, Saturn VUE Honda: Acura TL Nissan: Altima Toyota: Avalon, Camry, Tacoma, Lexus GS 450h, Lexus LS 600h 20072009 (Announced or Expected) Audi: Q7-SUV BMW: X3 DCX: Dodge Durango, Mercedes S Ford: Fusion, Futura, Marina, Milan, Zephyr, Mazda Tribute Geely: Maple GM: GMT900, Malibu, Sierra*, Silverado*, Tahoe, Yukon Honda: Acura, MDX, CR-V, Fit, Pilot Hyundai: Accent, Getz Kia Motors: Rio Mahindra & Mahindra: Scorpio Peugeot: 307, Citroen Porsche: Cayenne, Panamera Saab: 9-3 Subaru: Legacy, Outback Toyota: Corolla, Land Cruiser, Sequoia, Sienna, Tundra, Lexus ES 330, Lexus LS 430, Lexus LX 470 Volkswagen: Jetta, Passat, Touareg
19992005 Ford: Escape, Mariner GM: Sierra, Silverado Honda: Accord, Civic, Insight Toyota: Alphard, Crown, Estima, Highlander, Kluger, Prius, Lexus RX 400h
*Upgrade from mild to full hybrid Source: BofA, Forbes, greencarcongress.com, HSBC, hybrid.com, hybridcenter.org, hybrid-cars.org, hybrid-vehicles.net, Prudential, UMTA and AllianceBernstein
Our optimism that hybrid technology will fairly rapidly have a signicant impact on oil demand reects the progress industry participants have made to date: After nearly a decade of research and development, the major automakers are on the verge of being able to mass produce hybrids. Toyota is the clear leader, but every major automaker has launched or announced plans to launch at least one hybrid vehicle in the near term (Display 32). Leading auto suppliers, too, are preparing to capitalize on the opportunity this creates: Johnson Controls has formed a joint venture with SAFT to produce batteries, while Continental AG has formed a joint venture with ZF Friedrichshafen to produce hybrid systems and components. Given this progress, we expect that by the 2008/09 model year, the global automotive industry as a whole will have the components, infrastructure and technical ability to mass produce a wide variety of hybrid vehicles.We expect automakers to continue to improve their production processes subsequently, thereby increasing the efciency of the systems, lowering costs and creating a virtuous cycle of demand.
Our research also suggests that manufacturers will be able to adapt much of their existing capacity to produce hybrid vehicles with fairly limited additional expense. Toyota easily integrated assembly of the Prius, a hybridonly model, on its existing product lines. A tour of the Toyota plant that assembles the Prius along with seven other models was telling: The Prius only requires four new parts and 11 additional procedures (out of 200), or 5% additional complexity; several assembly functions take only 120 seconds versus 60 seconds for a similar non-hybrid vehicle. Assembly of hybrid versions of conventional models could be even simpler. Because hybrids do not call for a completely new approach to propulsion and fueling, as fuel cells do, adjustments to the manufacturing process are limited. As a result, hybrid power is not a disruptive technology for automakers, and massive capital-investment requirements are not a limiting factor.
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PLUG-IN HYBRIDS: THE REVOLUTION CONTINUES

Plug-in hybrid vehicles are likely to arrive as an extension of current hybrid technology: They may represent a second phase in this transportation revolution, with tremendous consequences for future oil demand, the cost of transportation and geopolitics. Like hybrids available today, plug-ins are powered by both liquid fuel (gasoline or diesel) and batteries. But in addition to being charged by the gasoline engine and regenerative braking, plug-in hybrids can be charged directly from the power grid we all use to power our refrigerators, computers and television sets: They may bequite literallyplugged into standard electric outlets.
Fuel-Efficiency Benefits The fuel-efciency gains from plug-ins would be enormous for those people who typically drive only short distances each dayand could have dramatic implications for overall oil demand. Transportation studies have found that 40% of Americans, for instance, travel 20 miles or less per day for work, school and routine errands; about 60% travel 30 miles or less per day.89 If these people could buy plug-in hybrids that could go 20 to 30 miles on the electric motor before recharging, they would almost never have to buy gasoline: Theyd just have to charge the vehicles battery in their own garages each night to power the next days driving requirements.
however, standard plug-ins are less efcient, because the process of producing and transporting conventional fuels today is more efcient than the process for generating and delivering electricity. The efciency of electricity varies by region, however, and new technologies and renewable sources may dramatically boost the efciency rates of electricity. As now envisioned, plug-ins would be about 50% more fuel efcient than standard hybrids, because they could run much longer on electricity alone. Several groups, such as Energy CS, have created prototype plug-ins by modifying a Prius. These modied vehicles have been able to achieve about 75 miles per gallon on average, versus about 50 for a typical hybrid Prius. The Electric Power Research Institute has estimated the impact on miles per gallon of going hybrid and plug-in for several vehicle classes based on todays technology90 (Display 33). In cooperation with the University of Chicago, Argonne National Laboratory has developed an industry-leading model for calculating the energy intensities and emissions proles of various power trains and fuels on a fuelsource-to-wheels basis. The model takes into account many types of energy inputs and outputs in the fueling and propulsion processes, but does not explicitly include plug-in hybrids. It does, however, evaluate both hybrids and electric vehicles. Using the gures for these vehicle types, we can estimate the relative merits of plug-ins.
A plug-in vehicles tank-to-wheel efciency is high: somewhere between the efciency of hybrid and pure electric vehicles, depending on what portion of driving is powered by electrical charge versus diesel or gas. The same consideration drives any comparison of the fuel source-to-tank efciency of plug-ins versus conventional hybrids or pure electrical vehicles. On this basis,
MPG
When they decided to take a longer trip to visit their in-laws or take a vacation, however, plug-in hybrid owners wouldnt face the inconvenience that owners of pure electric vehicles with comparable performance characteristics face from having to stop every 60 to 80 miles to recharge the battery (which can take hours). Instead, they would rely on the plug-in hybrid vehicles traditional engine for long-distance trips. In essence, people would use plug-ins primarily as electric vehicles; they would employ the engine only as needed to extend their driving range and boost performance, thereby overcoming the shortcomings of pure electric vehicles.
Display 33
Fuel Efficiency of Hybrids Varies by Vehicle Type

MPG of Power Trains
200 150 100 50 0 Compact Sedan Mid-size Sedan Mid-size SUV Vehicle Class Plug-in(20) assumes 20-mile driving range before charging; Plug-in(60) assumes 60. Source: Electric Power Resource Institute and Hybrid Electric Vehicle Working Group Full-size SUV Gasoline Non-Plug-in Hybrid Plug-in(20) Plug-in(60)
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Display 34
Comparison of Oil Demand Forecast Assumptions for Light-Duty Vehicles

Total Energy
Plug-in Hybrid
(20-mile electric range)
Petroleum
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Electric Vehicle
(US mix)*
Baseline Gasoline Engine
H2 Fuel Cell (electrolysis)

(US mix)
Gasoline Hybrid 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 BTU/Mile 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 BTU/Mile 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Grams/Mile
Based on average midsize car *Reects average mix of electric generation in US, which is more than 50% reliant on coal Plug-in data estimated by AllianceBernstein using Argonnes hybrid and electric vehicle results, assuming a daily driving cycle of 35 miles. Source: Argonne National Laboratory, GREET model (default assumptions) and AllianceBernstein
Our extension of the Argonne analysis shows that plugins vastly reduce total energy and petroleum consumption relative to most other alternatives (Display 34).* For instance, we estimate that a plug-in capable of a 20-mile driving range on electric power alone would use less than 1,300 BTUs of petroleum per mile traveled and less than 3,000 BTUs of total energy per mile traveled50% of the energy and 27% of the petroleum of a standard gasoline engine. The only other power train options with lower scores on both measures are pure electric vehicles and hydrogen-powered fuel-cell vehicles that use steam reformation and natural gas to produce hydrogen. Neither of these alternatives are commercially viable in the near to medium term. For electric vehicles, battery technology weaknesses limit potential driving range and impair performance. Fuel-cell vehicles have a host of performance, range and reliability issues to overcome, and require hydrogen production, distribution and storage, and infrastructure development (see Is the Fuel-Cell Alternative Commercially Viable?, on page 39).
Other Benefits Plug-ins could also reduce the cost of transportation. The Argonne model suggests that plug-ins not only require less total energy, they can use cheaper energy, at least at current fuel prices. Plug-in hybrids may also lead to the full electrication of the automobile: The presence of even larger batteries would enable drive-by-
wire technology that further enhances the performance, comfort, reliability and safety of vehicles. Because most of the necessary infrastructure for plug-ins is already in placemany homes and garages have outlets capable of recharging plug-insthe transition to plug-ins should be low cost. Widespread, global introduction of plug-ins would have complex, but mostly positive, ramications for electric power systems. While plug-ins could stress electric generating capacity, we estimate that at least in the US, there is sufcient slack in generating capacity today to support widespread adoption of plug-ins, if most of them were charged during off-peak, or late night, hours. In fact, by boosting demand at off-peak hours, plug-ins could help utilities achieve level loading, which would enhance their overall generating efciency and possibly reduce unit costs for electricity. Plug-ins may be particularly helpful for utilities with nuclear plants and certain kinds of coal-red generating plants, because these facilities typically generate a steady ow of power regardless of demand. Finally, plug-ins would help utilities expand their revenue base by extending the use of electricity to a new categoryroad transport. The resulting prots could be used to upgrade the grid and invest in cleaner and more efcient power plants.
* The Argonne base model is US-based and the results shown reflect the
efficiency of the US grid. Absolute values may vary considerably across countries due to the relative efficiency of the grid, but relative values should be similar.
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Given their low carbon fuel prole, plug-ins are also very attractive from an emissions perspective. Depending on the electric driving range achieved, plug-ins could reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 50% versus a comparable gasoline vehicle, even with todays relatively dirty power plants. The emissions-reduction benet would increase as utilities invest in emissions-reducing technologies, nuclear power and renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar. Perhaps even more important is the fuel exibility that plug-in hybrids would offer. Today, the transportation sector is almost entirely dependent on oil for its fuel needs. Given the crucial importance of transportation to the economy, gaining and preserving access to oil has been central to geopolitics for the last century. Plug-in hybrids would change this situation by making electricity (which can be generated from multiple fuel sources) a viable alternative to oil for road transport. Needless to say, there would be profound implications for the much-discussed problem of depending on foreign oil sources/energy security and for current concerns about oil supply and rening capacity.
Current Status Prototype plug-in technology already exists. Dr. Andrew Frank of the University of California (Davis) has been making plug-ins for the past decade. More recently, several plug-ins have been created and tested by several start-up rms and by DaimlerChrysler. The main limitation lies in battery technology, namely the range afforded on electrical charge, recharge time, life and cost premium (currently estimated at $4,500 to $6,750 per battery). The Prius battery now allows one to drive only one or two miles on the battery alone, because its electronic control unit seeks to maintain the ideal state of charge needed to maximize battery life. However, at least one battery manufacturer has reportedly developed a lithium-ion (phosphate) battery capable of propelling a modied Prius 20 miles on a single charge, after which the gas engine would take over and it would drive like a standard hybrid.91 Furthermore, DaimlerChrysler is introducing plug-in commercial vans in several cities; the vans use a 14 kilowatt/hour nickel battery capable of propelling a van 18 miles on a single charge.
The projected life of a plug-in battery is estimated to be six to 10 years, which could be an obstacle to mass adoption, given their high cost. While the lead acid batteries in conventional vehicles only last about three to ve years on average, they typically cost only $100 to $150 each. However, new battery technologies likely to emerge would extend plug-in battery life. For plug-in applications, greater energy density is more important than power density, because energy density provides longer driving range without using the engine. Higher-density batteries, however, typically provide less power. A potential solution could be to pair ultra capacitors or ywheels that deliver signicant power but have little energy density with high-energy batteries; this would free the battery from having to provide high levels of power. New lithium battery technologies on the horizon also appear to promise longer life, faster recharge times, greater power and lower cost; they could be ideal for plug-in vehicle applications. As a result, we expect technological innovations and scale to continue to drive down battery costs and improve performance, improving the outlook for plug-ins. Automakers may also make design changes to realize signicant cost reductions in plug-ins non-battery systems. For instance, Toyota may conclude that series or parallel constructions for plug-ins deliver similar performance attributes as the more expensive series/parallel construction it currently uses. If so, it could introduce plug-ins with somewhat different architectures than it employs in hybrids today. The industry is at the very beginning of a long period of continuous innovation and improvement. Development of high-energy batteries is likely to spur the commercialization of plug-ins. Unlike fuel-cell technology, which our research suggests is at least 15 years away from mass commercialization, plug-in technology has largely been developed. Prototypes have already been deployed, at an estimated cost of less than $50,000 per vehicle, versus the $500,000 to $1 million deployment cost for an experimental fuel-cell vehicle.
Any comparison of vehicle emissions has to take into account the fuel
source and technology of the electric-generating plant. On a fuel source-towheel basis, a plug-in that is charged from a high-emissions coal-fired plant might emit more particulates or smog-causing sulfur dioxide than a gasoline hybrid. The plug-in, however, would shift the emissions from the area where it is driven to the area where the electric power is generated, perhaps many hundreds of miles away.
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IS THE FUEL-CELL ALTERNATIVE COMMERCIALLY VIABLE?

If viable, hydrogen-powered fuel-cell vehicles would seem to be the ultimate answer to the worlds oil problem because one need never worry about supply. Fuel cells, like batteries, are electrochemical devices; they use hydrogen and oxygen to create electricity without combustion. Unlike batteries, however, fuel cells never lose charge: They generate electricity as long as hydrogen and oxygen are available. Thus, fuel cells used for transportation would dramatically cut oil consumption and emissions. Ballard, GM and other rms have claimed that commercialization of such vehicles is close at hand. In the absence of a demonstration vehicle, we doubt this is true, for several reasons: Hydrogen, while freely available, does not exist in a form that is readily usable: It must be captured and produced, which in itself requires considerable energy. The two common methods to produce usable hydrogen today are electrolysis and steam reformation. Electrolysis uses electricity to liberate hydrogen from water; steam reformation uses steam to create hydrogen from natural gas. Electrolysis uses more energy than it creates and results in relatively low fuel source-to-wheel efciencies and high emissions. Steam reformation is more efcient and produces lower emissions, but the process is expensive and requires relatively scarce natural gas. Using renewable energy to create hydrogen would be very clean, but such supply is now limited, and its costs are high. Even after the hydrogen is produced, it must be made easily available for consumers to refuel while traveling. The distribution challenges are signicant, requiring new infrastructure, even at existing gasoline refueling stations. Building the required hydrogen infrastructure in the US alone has been estimated to cost as much as $600 billion, resulting in a sizeable chicken-and-egg problem: Oil companies may not want to make the investment until the vehicles are on the road; automakers may not invest in production until the infrastructure is place.92 Safe storage of hydrogen on board the vehicle in sufcient amounts to fuel acceptable travel ranges has proved technically challenging. The cost of meeting these requirements may make fuel-cell vehicles too expensive for consumers, when both initial price and maintenance and operating expenses are considered. Fuel-cell vehicles have yet to achieve the performance and range that consumers desire. Our research suggests that pure fuel-cell vehicles are many years, if not decades, away from mass commercialization, unless a major government mandate gives them a boost. Any fuel-cell vehicles commercialized soon are likely to be hybrids, in which case the fuel cells are assisted by a battery-powered motor. Finally, wide adoption of hybrids and plugins could further delay the introduction of fuel-cell vehicles, because the efciency gains from switching from such vehicles to a fuel-cell vehicle would be less dramatic.
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GEO-POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES
To repeat, we expect the transition to hybrid vehicles to be primarily market-driven, rather than due to government policies aimed at reducing oil dependency: Demand will be spurred primarily by the inherent benets of this technological innovation, including faster acceleration, better fuel efcency, increased customization and the potential inclusion of new electronic systems that enhance functionality and safety. Government incentives may accelerate mass adoption, but we do not expect many consumers to act against their own self-interest in the name of some greater good. Most consumers will buy these vehicles because they are better value propositions. Nonetheless, hybrid vehicles dramatically better fuel efciency will have important geo-political consequences. As hybrid systems improve, they will utilize more powerful batteries, allowing them to travel greater distances without using gasoline or diesel. By the year 2030, mass adoption of hybrid vehicles could lead to a decline in transportation-related demand for oil, reducing total oil consumption meaningfully, assuming miles traveled stays constant or increases at historical rates. As plug-in vehicles become feasible, consumers will have more choices on how to charge their hybrid batteries. If most consumers opt to charge their batteries from the electrical grid, rather than from the vehicles internal combustion engine, the fuel utilized for charging (and therefore for transportation) could possibly be coal, natural gas or uranium, rather than oil. This new exibility is truly game-changing: Until now, transportation has been one of the only major sectors that has not substituted less expensive fuels for oil. Plug-in vehicles make that substitution possible. Since we are investors and not political pundits, we are hesitant to opine too much on the specic geo-political ramications of this transition. Given the current highly charged political landscape and concerns about dependence on foreign oil, however, it is hard to overstate the implications of the trend to hybrid vehicles: Economic growth, which is inextricably linked to transportation, could be almost entirely decoupled from oil. This could reshape the foreign policies of such oil-importing countries or regions as the US, Japan, Western Europe, China and India. The economic and political implications for the few oil-rich exporting nations, by contrast, are likely to be grim. Indeed, the transition to hybrid power could change the world! Whether individuals decide to charge their vehicle batteries from the electric grid or from the internal combustion engine will ultimately depend on the relative price of electricity and oil. If scarcity continues to drive oil prices up, many consumers will certainly opt to charge their batteries from the grid. If electricity prices rise for some reason and oil prices fall, this option will be less attractive. We expect oil demand growth from transportation to rst slow and then shrink. As the trend becomes evident to an increasing number of investors, fears of oil shortages will dissipate, which may lead to a sharp drop in the price of oil. Of course, oil demand will not fall to zero. If investment in oil exploration and production rises signicantly during this perceived time of crisis, and demand from the transport sector slows or declines, oil prices may fall far enough to let oil once again be a competitive alternative for such uses as home heating. But the improved fuel economy of hybrid vehicles and the fuel exibility that plug-in vehicles make possible will still free the world from being captive to its hunger for oil.
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INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS
Display 35
Affected Industries: Winners and Losers

Power Train/Fuel
Hybrid-Battery Manufacturers* Automotive Suppliers (Electronic) Power-Semiconductor Suppliers* Traditional Semiconductor Suppliers Electric Utilities Natural Resource/Commodity Suppliers (excl. oil) Automakers (OEMs) Automotive Suppliers (Traditional) Electric-Power Equipment Makers* Fuel-Cell Providers Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Firms Retailers with Gasoline Sales Oil and Gas Reners and Distributors
Near
+++ ++ + + NA + +/ NA NA NA NA
Mid
+++ +++ ++ + + + +/ NA
Long
+++ +++ +++ + +++ + +/ ++
Comments
Signicant demand acceleration Market acceleration Signicant demand acceleration Modest demand increase Transition to plug-ins may lead to increased demand; load-balancing opportunities Somewhat increased demand for nickel, lithium, etc. Market share shifts intra-sector, but decelerates overall Increased demand for electricity Delay demand Slower demand growth Slower demand growth Slower demand growth
+++ ++ + Highly Positive Very Positive Positive Negative Very Negative Highly Negative
+++/ +++/ +++/ Market share shifts intra-sector
*No publicly traded pure-play investment opportunities available at this time.
The investment implications of our thematic research are often complex and fairly imprecise. This is not the case with this topic. The investment consequences of the transition to hybrid vehicles are straightforward and can be summarized succinctly. In Display 35, we list the affected industries in order from biggest winners to biggest losers. In the text that follows, we list them alphabetically. Since the transition to hybridization of the global eet of automobiles will be gradual, our time horizons for the investment implications are slightly longer than normal. In this report, we classify near term as less than ve years, mid term as ve to eight years, and long term as more than eight years. A word of caution: The market is a terric mechanism for discounting the impact of even long-term trends. Once the trend becomes clear, it is likely to be reected in stock priceseven before it affects companies prot and loss statements.
Automakers (Original Equipment Manufacturers) A wide discrepancy in hybrid expertise exists among the major automobile manufacturers. Toyota clearly dominates the market at this time, capturing 77% of all hybrid vehicles sold globally; Honda is a distant second with only 16% share (Display 36). In the near to medium term, Toyota (and its suppliers) should benet the most from the transition to hybrid vehicles.
Toyota has conducted extensive research and development on hybrid technology, and successfully engineered a highly robust, scalable and proprietary hybrid system. Despite their higher prices, Toyotas hybrids outsell all rival models, because they offer consumers greater fuel efciency and performance across more vehicle classes than rival offerings do. We expect Toyota to retain a dominant position (but probably not a 77% share) as the hybrid market grows, due to its core competencies in advanced electronics and technologies, manufacturDisplay 36
Toyota Dominates the Hybrid Market Today

Hybrid Vehicle Global Market Share
2005
Toyota 77.1%
Honda 15.7% GM Ford 0.7% 6.6% Total: 304,766 Source: Honda, HSBC, Hybrid-cars.org,Toyota and AllianceBernstein
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ing and strong supply networks. The strong likelihood that Toyota will achieve greater economies of scale and progress on the hybrid cost and learning curves than its competitors will also help it retain its current dominance. In addition to continuing to improve its best-selling Prius hybrid, Toyota plans to offer hybridization as an option on more of its conventional vehicles. Toyotas success with hybrids is likely to help the company become the largest global automaker in terms of vehicles sold: Market survey data suggest its conventional vehicles are already benetting from a halo effect and increased trafc to the showroom.93 Ultimately, we expect all automakers will have to produce hybrids to survive and prosper. Moreover, they will have to act fast since Toyota and Honda will soon be on their third-generation hybrid systems. Honda is likely to continue moving toward full hybrids as their costs decline, which erodes the relative cost advantage of its mild-hybrid technology. The company may seek to introduce its mild hybrids in the low-end of the market in the near term because this segment is likely to be more sensitive to upfront price rather than fuel efciency or performance, and other automakers may avoid the segment for some time. The continued success of Toyota in the hybrid market should accelerate Hondas efforts: Honda is highly vulnerable to new competition from hybrids because it now has the global industrys most fuel-efcient line-up of conventional vehicles.
Display 37
Other automakers are likely to suffer market share and/ or protability losses in the near term because they do not have competitive hybrid offerings. They will probably have to invest in developing the technology or pay relatively large license fees to Toyota to deploy Toyotas system. Some of Toyotas licensees, however, are only able to obtain technology a generation behind Toyotas current hybrid offerings, which puts the licensees at a technical and economic disadvantage. To a large extent, the degree to which the laggards will be hurt will depend on the regional mix of their global sales (Display 37). Those with the greatest share in North AmericaGeneral Motors, Ford and DaimlerChryslerare likely to suffer the greatest share losses, since Toyota and Honda are rst targeting North America and Japan for hybrid penetration. The North American automakers may respond to this threat in the near term by offering discounts on their conventional models and accelerating the development of any fuel-saving and performance-enhancing technologies they do have; the result may be more efcient gasoline, biofuel and diesel vehicles. But the North American rms should be wary of pursuing such a strategy: Their declining market shares and prot outlooks are likely to limit their marketing and research budgets, increasing the need to focus their resources on the technology most likely to win in the long term: hybrid technology.
Most Vulnerable Automakers: Hybrid Laggards with Sales Focused in North America and Europe
Top 10 Automakers Global Vehicles Sales Regional Mix in 2005 Unit Sales General Motors Ford Motor Toyota Motor Renault-Nissan Group Volkswagen DaimlerChrylser Hyundai PSA Honda Fiat 8,814,475 7,484,014 7,380,807 5,735,697 4,884,415 4,135,593 3,424,693 3,338,327 3,246,237 1,948,433 North America (%) 59 52 33 25 11 69 25 1 51 0 Europe (%) 21 30 13 44 67 27 21 76 9 70 Asia (%) 12 12 50 26 11 3 43 5 38 4 Other (%) 8 6 4 5 11 2 11 19 2 25
Sales data includes light- and heavy-duty vehicles made by parent company, majority-owned afliates and minority-owned group alliances (e.g., Mazda is included with Ford, Nissan with Renault, and Kia with Hyundai). Source: Citigroup, JD Powers and Merrill Lynch
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With respect to hybrid development, automakers are pursuing different strategies. General Motors and DaimlerChrysler have formed a research and development partnership together with BMW; Ford has chosen to license Toyotas system in the near term and pursue its own technology longer term. Four European automakersAudi, Peugeot, Porsche and Volkswagenhave also elected to cooperate to bridge the technology gap. Partnerships offer numerous benets: shared development costs; reduced development times (if each partner focuses on a different core technology); and more rapid attainment of economies of scale. The GM/DaimlerChrysler/BMW partnership appears to be centered on joint research and development and shared components. The Audi/Peugeot/Porche/Volkswagen partnership appears to be focused on developing a supplier network that can deliver hybrids on a turnkey basis. If, as we expect, hybrid costs decline and diesel costs rise due to more stringent regulatory requirements, the hybrid premium to consumers may become equal to or smaller than the diesel premium, and the recent surge in global diesel sales may end. This would be particularly negative for automakers with the largest share of their global sales in Europe, due to the large share of diesel vehicles in that region. Japan is also an attractive market for hybrids. Toyota and Hondas leadership in hybrids is supplemented by established dealer networks, greater market awareness and more efcient vehicles. Some of the other Japanese automakers, most notably Nissan and Fuji Heavy Industries, the maker of Subaru vehicles, license or plan to license technology from Toyota. Others, such as Mitsubishi and Suzuki, have been seeking to develop their own hybrid technologies. However, they appear to be signicantly behind: Their continued efforts have yet to result in a successful hybrid vehicle product launch. In the rest of Asia, Toyota and Honda are likely to introduce hybrids more aggressively when hybrid component costs are lower, in order to take share from local automobile manufacturers. In a somewhat defensive move, several Chinese, Korean and Indian manufacturers have indicated they will either seek to license Toyotas hybrid technology or develop their own. These new entrants, along with some European automakers, may also pursue mild hybrids rst and then seek to progress to full hybrids.
Automotive Suppliers (Electronic) The automotive-electronics market has been growing rapidly for more than ve years and is attractive for its relative stability. Most of the innovation in the automotive sector in recent years has come from electronic components that have made cars more sophisticated and efcient. Electronic components have moved from simple starting and lighting functions to parts regulating complex engine and emissions controls, sensors, and safety and entertainment features. This trend generally benets suppliers of various electronic systems.
Obviously, the companies with the most to gain are those that specialize in hybrid-specic electronic components (such as electric motors and generators, magnets, powersplit devices, and electronic control units/microcontrollers, sensors and battery management systems). These companies are well situated to capitalize on market growth, especially if they can help lagging automakers close the gap between themselves and the leaders in hybrid vehicles. However, suppliers of other electronic parts outside of the power train are also likely to benet considerably from hybrid market growth, because hybrids should accelerate the trend to increased electronic content per vehicle. Thus, many consumer electronics rms are starting to enter the electronic automotive supplies market.
Automotive Suppliers (Mechanical) In the near term, the suppliers of conventional mechanical systems, such as brakes, engines, steering and transmissions, are likely to see their sales volumes and prots decline as an increasing number of these systems are either downscaled and/or replaced by new electronic systems made possible by the higher voltage in hybrid vehicles.
Over the mid and long term, this trend should accelerate, making the outlook for traditional mechanical automotive suppliers bleak. To some degree, the intensity of this trend has been masked to date because the leading hybrid manufacturers are to a large extent vertically integrated. Therefore, the shift from mechanical to electronic has largely occurred among their partially owned internal suppliers. As other automakers begin to offer hybrid vehicles, the repercussions for their traditional suppliers could be severe. Many suppliers of traditional mechanical parts are trying to shift their business to the faster-growth electronics arena. Suppliers of engine technology and materials will be largely unscathed by the trend to hybrid vehicles. As long as the internal combustion engine survives, there will be
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an advantage to developing smaller, lighter and hence more efcient engines capable of delivering the same or more power as their larger equivalents. Additionally, lighter-weight materials for vehicle bodies or parts with equal performance and safety will also see great demand, since they boost fuel efciency. Suppliers of these components should do well even over the long term.
Electric Utilities In the near term, hybrid adoption is unlikely to affect the investment prospects of electric utilities. In the long term, however, commercialization of plug-in hybrids could signicantly increase utility revenues. Our analysis suggests that there is now sufcient electric capacity in the US and several other industrialized countries to accommodate large numbers of plug-in vehicles, regardless of the time of day charged; more vehicles can be supplied if most are charged during the off-peak (late night/early morning hours) because the gap between baseload and off-peak capacity is generally fairly wide.
Display 38
US Plug-In Capacity: Ample, but Not Always Low Cost
Relative Cost Attractive Neutral Unattractive Attractive reects likely availability of surplus low cost, baseload capacity and marginal costs of under $40 per million watt hours. Unattractive reects likely unavailability of low cost, baseload capacity and marginal costs of more than $90 per million watt hours. Neutral reects neither attractive or unattractive. Analysis assumes natural gas prices remain at currently high levels. Source: Energy Velocity, GlobalView, North American Electric Reliability Council, Prudential Securities and AllianceBernstein
Cost, not capacity, is the key issue. In examining the major electric distribution regions in the US, we found that the marginal cost of potential electric supply for plug-ins could vary from less than $40 per megawatt to more than $240 per megawatt, depending on the type of baseload and peak generating capacity and anticipated demand in a given region. To the consumer, this translates into a price of less than $0.04 per kilowatt hour to more than $0.24 per kilowatt hour. Certain regions of the US, such as the central and southeast states, are highly advantaged for plug-ins today, given their excess baseload capacity (Display 38). Others, such as California, Florida, New York and Texas, are not. Unfortunately, nearly 40% of the US population lives in those states. Baseload plants, such as coal-red and nuclear plants, are typically large, capital-intensive facilities with low variable cost. They are difcult to bring on line and put off line; as a result, they operate continuously to serve the minimum load requirements in a given system. Additional demand is met by bringing on additional capacity that is less efcient or has higher variable costs. Mass adoption of plug-ins would allow electric utilities in aggregate to use baseload capacity more effectively. Moreover, new off-peak demand would allow generating plants to operate at a steadier load, which would improve their prot structure. This benet will become increasingly important as rising demand for electricity unrelated to plug-in vehicles forces utilities to increase capacity; it will give them an additional incentive to add baseload, rather than peakload capacity.
Electric utility providers that now have greater baseload capacity than required to meet anticipated demand are likely to benet more from a trend toward plug-ins. These utilities are typically more reliant on nuclear power or super-critical coal plants; widespread adoption of plug-ins would likely push other utilities to build such plants. In France, Japan and other countries that are largely reliant on nuclear power, plug-ins would be even more attractive, beneting both plug-in vehicle makers and electric utilities in those countries. When natural gas prices were low, gas-red plants were also used for baseload capacity; todays higher natural gas prices have relegated these facilities to providing intermediate backup supply. Should natural gas prices fall, additional areas around the world could become baseload heavy, which would make plug-ins even more attractive there.
Electric-Power Equipment Makers As plug-in hybrids gain share, electric utilities are likely to augment their generating capacity. In order to meet immediate short-term demand, they will probably rst bring on any exible and intermediate capacity, as well as inefcient capacity in their existing asset portfolios. Over the longer term, depending on the amount of their excess baseload capacity and anticipated demand from their customers, utilities will either build new peak capacity plants, which are cheaper and quicker to build and may be sufcient to meet demand at reasonable
cost to consumers. Or, they may build additional baseload plants, which are more expensive and take longer to build, but are capable of satisfying greater demand at lower cost. Some utilities, of course, may build both. Peak capacity plants with 50 megawatts of output typically take two years to install at a cost of $20 million. Baseload plants with 500 megawatts of output take about six years to install and cost about $825 million. Over time, the additional revenue stream provided by serving transportation needs could help electric-utility providers modernize the power grid in terms of greater efciency, reliability and emission controls. As a result, electricpower equipment manufacturers are likely to see signicant benets over the long term. There are two additional potential sources of spending by electrical utilities that would also benet makers of electric-power equipment. The plug-ins envisioned today would use standard hardware for home charging (e.g., 120 volts in the US). If battery manufacturers can achieve rapid charging in next-generation hybrid batteries, utilities would have to create the necessary infrastructure to allow consumers to charge quickly. In addition, if utilities seeking level loading decide to adopt variable price schedules that give consumers an incentive to charge at night, the utilities would need to install new meters and related equipment.
Fuel-Cell Providers Fuel-cells providers have targeted a wide range of markets, from portable applications such as cell phones and laptops, to stationary applications such as back-up or primary power generation, and transportation uses. The emergence of hybrid vehicles raises the cost, efciency, performance and convenience thresholds that fuel cells will have to cross to become a mainstream transportation technology. This is likely to hurt providers of fuel cells for passenger and military vehicles in the near and long term.
Hybrid-Battery Manufacturers Since the energy-storage system is the single most expensive component of a hybrid vehicle, manufacturers of hybrid-battery systems are well positioned to benet from the increased penetration of hybrids over the short and long term. We estimate todays market for hybrid batteries is $1 billion to $2 billion annually. Over the long term, the hybrid-battery market could be ve to 15 times larger, depending on both hybrids share of new vehicle sales and prices of hybrid batteries.
Almost all hybrid batteries sold today are nickel metal hydride units. The major players for nickel batteries are Panasonic EV (now majority-owned by Toyota), Sanyo, Cobasys (a joint venture between Energy Conversion Devices and ChevronTexaco) and possibly JCI/Saft. To the extent these companies persuade automakers to accept battery designs that use their existing technology, the companies will benet for several years: Automakers do not typically change battery suppliers during the product life of a given model. Design acceptance by the automakers, however, is difcult to gain. It requires a strong relationship with the automaker, a solid understanding of battery chemistries, manufacturing prowess, and the ability to produce highly reliable and durable batteries at reasonable cost. We expect a transition to lithium batteries to begin in the next few years, possibly as early as 2008, with the release of the next generation of todays proven hybrids. Lithium batteries are likely to decrease the cost and improve the performance of hybrids. They would also facilitate greater competition, because major consumer electronics rms (such as Hitachi and Toshiba) are likely to enter the market. Given the likely transition to lithium batteries, automakers and battery manufacturers may limit their investments in new nickel-battery capacity, which could constrain near-term supply and help existing nickel battery manufacturers. But the introduction of lithium batteries should accelerate adoption of hybrids, and nickel-battery manufacturers not able to develop a lithium technology will likely be hurt.
Natural Resource/Commodity Suppliers In the near term, commodity producers may benet modestly from the transition to hybrids, since todays hybrid vehicles are estimated to each require an incremental 30 to 60 pounds of nickel and 50 pounds of copper.94
While a fuel-cell vehicle may materialize, it appears likely that it will be a fuel-cell hybrid, which would extend the driving range between hydrogen refuelings and enhance performance. In the long term, commercialization of plug-in hybrids would pose an even greater threat to commercialization of fuel cells, since it would reduce the benet of switching to a fuel-cell hybrid. Furthermore, governments and energy companies would need to underwrite the massive infrastructure development required to make fuel-cell vehicles a viable consumer option.
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Most of the additional nickel resides in the battery pack; the copper is mostly in electric wiring. In the near team, increased hybrid sales could lead to higher nickel prices, since supply has been tight. However, new supply is scheduled to come on line over the next ve years, and many applications using nickel (such as tableware) have potential substitutes that would limit the impact of higher prices. Over the long term, nickel is likely to be displaced by lithium in the hybrid battery. The amount of lithium required for hybrid batteries regardless of the conguration that is ultimately adoptedwill be a small fraction of the amount of nickel now used in hybrid batteries. There are few lithium producers, but an ample supply of the base materials. The impact to copper producers should be more muted since the copper market is 11 times larger than the nickel market, and high prices are inducing a shift to cheaper substitutes for such applications as brass ornaments in home and commercial buildings.95 Also, automakers are seeking to use lighter-weight materials in hybrids, which may reduce the copper content per vehicle in the long run.
Oil and Gas Producers (Integrated) For integrated oil companies, which make up the lions share of the market capitalization of the energy industry, the trend to hybrids will be negative because it is likely to disrupt their rening and distribution business. Although their exploration and development business may be relatively unaffected, hybridization will not be a benet.
the near term. Over the medium and longer term, however, the mass adoption of hybrids and plug-ins would cause demand to decline, perhaps bringing it in line with future supply. Of course, unlike hydrogen-powered fuel-cell vehicles, hybrid vehicles do not completely displace oil; they only reduce its consumption. As long as oil remains in use as a fuel source for transport and other applications such as petrochemicals and plastics, oil exploration and production operations will be necessary. The worst case for these companies is that surging investments lead to massive new discoveries and developed supply just as hybrids and plug-ins dramatically reduce demand. The resulting oil glut would lower prices substantially. This scenario is unlikely, in our view. On the supply side, many industry observers believe future supply additions will be smaller and more gradual than additions have been over the past 50 years. On the demand side, emerging Asia is likely to consume an increasingly large volume of oil for many years, even though fuel efciency per vehicle is likely to rise. Furthermore, the sizeable shift to hybrids and plug-ins necessary to have a large impact will also take several years. In the medium term, the adverse impact of plug-ins may also be mitigated if these vehicles lead to increased demand for natural gas by electric utilities as they build additional baseload capacity. The benet to natural gas suppliers of increased natural gas sales to power plants and shifting exploration and production activities could partly offset the impact from reduced oil demand.
Oil and Gas Refiners and Distributors Oil and gas reners and distributors are more likely to be adversely affected by the trend to hybrid vehicles. The impact may be modest in the near term, but severe longer term as hybrid sales increase. Hybrid vehicles will require fewer gallons of gasoline, reducing fuel sales; fewer stops at gas stations will also result in reduced store sales. In addition, the high utilization rates reners enjoy today may vanish and overcapacity may hurt rening margins. These developments will likely accelerate when plug-in vehicles are commercialized and consumers begin to use the electric drive to propel most of their journeys. To the extent hybrids and plug-ins are concentrated in the industrialized countries of North America, Japan and Europe, rening and distribution companies in these regions will feel the greatest impact.
For the sake of clarity, we separately assess rening and distribution, and exploration and development. A key issue in assessing the prospects for integrated players is the relative weight of these two business lines.
Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Firms The protability of these rms is likely to decline from the current peak, but the industry may still be attractive for many years. The relative attractiveness of exploration and production over the longer term will depend on the precise supply and demand situation.
In recent years, many oil and gas exploration and production companies have found it difcult to nd oil. Exploration costs are rising, as geo-political factors limit access and harsher, more remote areas have to be drilled. Thus, more advanced technologies need to be deployed. As a result, continued buoyant demand growth in the face of supply constraints could lead to higher prices in
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Retailers with Gasoline Sales As hybrids and plug-ins are adopted, drivers will need fewer gallons of gasoline and will make fewer stops to refuel, particularly in cities and towns (versus highways), where electric drive trains are most efcient and recharging via the electric grid most feasible. The impact could be quite negative for one often-overlooked segment of the gasoline distribution system: convenience stores, supermarkets and big box discount retailers. These businesses will clearly be hurt by the shift to hybrid vehicles. The magnitude of the impact will likely depend on the extent to which they rely on gasoline sales to generate prots and attract customers to the store. Semiconductor Suppliers (Power) Faster and smaller semiconductors for managing the ow of larger amounts of electric power have become available at lower cost in recent years and made inroads into a variety of applications, from elevators to home appliances and, more recently, the automobile. These chips are critical for drive-by-wire technologies such as electric steering, as well as the hybrid power train, because they can handle high voltages and alternating currents with much greater control, reliability and efciency.
We estimate that the market for power semiconductors is less than $350 million, but could range from $2 billion to $5 billion in the mid term, and even larger in the long term, depending on both the size of the hybrid market and the cost of power semiconductors. Since Toyota is manufacturing these components in-house, many analysts have not focused on the automotive market opportunity for these chips. In our view, these analysts are signicantly underestimating even near- and mid-term demand from other automakers that are increasing their hybrid offerings.
Semiconductor Suppliers (Traditional) Sales to the automotive market only account for 5% of total global semiconductor revenues today, but that is poised to change quickly.96 Semiconductor manufacturers have recognized the stable growth, reasonable prots and opportunities for product differentiation in the automotive market. As a result, more of them are creating business units that specialize in the automotive market.
Because they are key to the conversion of electrical energy for driving a motor at variable speeds, these specialized chips are likely to represent a growing share of the semiconductor content of both hybrids and non-hybrid vehicles. Increased penetration of the automotive market may also create a virtuous circle: Greater sales to the automotive market may help drive economies of scale, leading to even greater ubiquity of these components in non-transport applications.
The semiconductor content of vehicles has already increased dramatically with demand for more intelligent vehicles capable of controlling the engine for enhanced fuel efciency and lower emissions, of conveying information via sensors, and of delivering more comfort and responsiveness, with greater safety. Hybrids and further electrication of the vehicle will accelerate sales growth for semiconductor suppliers to the sector over the near and long term. Given the massive size and growth of other semiconductor markets, it is unlikely that the automotive market will become a major subsector in aggregate for quite some time. However, the superior margin prospects in this category could boost the bottom line for some industry participants.
47
Endnotes
1 See Marion King Hubbert, Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, Drilling
and Production Practice, American Petroleum Institute, 1956 and Energy Resources, Resources and Man, Committee on Resources and Man, 1969. 2 See Kenneth Deffeyes, Beyond Oil, The View from Hubberts Peak, 2005. Other Hubberts advocates include Colin Campbell and Jean H. Laherrore, authors of The Coming Oil Crisis, 1997, David Goodstein, The End of Oil, 2005, Paul Roberts, The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World, 2004, Richard Heinberg, The Partys Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, 2003, Andrew Mckillop, The Final Energy Crisis, 2005, and Jeremy Leggett, Half Gone: Oil, Gas, and Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis, 2005. 3 Critics of Hubberts methodology include Michael Lynch, Oil Scarcity, Oil Crises, and Alternative EnergiesDont Be Fooled Again, Applied Energy, SeptemberDecember 1999, Leonardo Maugeri, Oil: Never Cry WolfWhy the Petroleum Age Is Far from Over, Science, May 2004, and Two Cheers for Expensive Oil, Foreign Affairs, April/May 2006, Peter Odell, Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Centurys Global Energy Economy, 2004, and Vacal Smith, Energy at the Crossroads, 2005. 4 Thomas Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population: A View of its Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness, 1798. 5 Tom Gardner-Outlaw and Robert Engleman, Forest Futures: Population, Consumption, and Wood Resources, 1999. 6 John Perlin, A Forest Journey: The Role of Wood in the Development of Civilization, 1989. 7 See The Science Museum, Making the Modern World. 8 Robert Thurston, A History of the Growth of the Stream Engine, 1878. 9 William Jevons, The Coal Question: An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal Mines, 1865. 10 Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power, 1991. 11 See Yergin, The Prize, and Erik Dahl, Naval innovation: From Coal to Oil, Joint Force Quarterly, Winter, 2000 . 12 Winston Churchill, The World in Crisis 191118, 1923. 13 Robert Anderson, Fundamentals of the Petroleum Industry, 1984, and Jeremy Rifkin, The Hydrogen Economy: After Oil, Clean Energy From a Fuel-CellDriven Global Hydrogen Web, 2002. 14 Richard Blake et al, The 40 Greatest Trades of All Time, Trader, March/ April 2005. 15 Richard Rhodes, Energy Transitions: A History Lesson Center of Energy Research, University of California, San Diego, 2002, and Arlington Institute, US Department of Energy, A Strategy: Moving America Away from Oil, 2003. 16 Warren D. Devine, From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification, Journal of Economic History, 1983, Jesse H. Ausubel and Cesare Marchetti, Elektron: Electrical Systems in Retrospect and Prospect, Daedalus, Summer 1996, Brent Goldfard, Adoption of General Purpose Technologies: Understanding Adaption Patterns in the Electrification of US Manufacturing, 1880-1930, Working Paper, Dept of Economics, Renesselaer Polytechnic Institute, 2001, Richard DuBoff, Electrical Power in American Manufacturing, 1889-1958, 1979, and I.C.R. Byatt, The British Electrical Industry, 1875-1914: The Economic Returns in a New Technology, 1979, Boyan Jovanovic and Peter Rousseau, General Purpose Technologies, NBER Working Paper, 2005, Harold Edquist and Magnus Henrekson, Technological Breakthroughs and Productivity Growth, Institute for Research in Economic History, Stockholm School of Economics, April 2005. 17 Peter Huber and Mark Mills, The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, The Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy, 2005. 18 Peter Huber and Mark Mills, Highly Ordered Power, Digital Power Report, October 2001. 19 Jesse H. Ausubel, Where Is Energy Going? Industrial Physicist, February 2000. 20 Kevin L. Kliesen and David C. Wheelock, The Microchip Flexes Its Muscle. Can It Compete with Historys Best?, The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 2001 and Bart van Art and Jan Pieter Smits, Technology Regimes and Productivity Growth in Europe
and the United States: A Comparative and Historical Perspective, Institute of European Studies, University of California, Berkeley, 2005. 21 Kliesen and Wheelock. 22 At the North American Auto Show. Quoted in www.greencarcongress. com on January 18, 2006. 23 Ford Plans Big Hybrid Push, The Detroit News, September 21, 2005. 24 International Monetary Fund, Will The Oil Market Continue To Be Tight? in World Economic Outlook, 2005. 25 International Energy Agency, Key Statistics, 2004. 26 International Energy Agency, World Energy Statistics and Balances, 2003. 27 International Energy Agency, World Energy Statistics and Balances. 2003. 28 International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook, 2004. 29 International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook, 2004. 30 Based on conversation with IEA energy analysts in February 2006. 31 IEAs estimate for fuel efficiency is obtained by proxy from the joint work of the IEA and the Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP). The model is fully described in Lewis Fulton (IEA) and George Eads (CRA), IEA/SMP Model Documentation and Reference Case Projections, July 2004. 32 Estimate from Eric Michaels, European Auto Analyst, SG CIB. 33 See www.hybridcars.com. 34 See Toyota Motors, Well to Wheels Analysis and Hybrid Synergy Drive. 35 See Malcom Weiss, John B. Haywood, et al On the Road in 2020: A Life Cycle Analysis of New Automobile Technologies, October 2000, General Motors, Argonne National Laboratory, et al Well-to-Wheel Analysis of Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Advanced Fuel/Vehicle Systems, 2001/2002, Argonne National Laboratory, GREET Model, The Sustainable Mobility Project, Mobility 2030: Meeting the Challenge to Sustainability, 2004, Frank Kreith and R.E. West, Gauging Efficiency: Well to Wheel, Mechanical Engineering Power, 2003, Matthew Ward, Questions about a Hydrogen Economy, Scientific American, May 2004. 36 See James Mackintosh, New Emissions Rules Raise Cost of Diesel Cars, Financial Times, December 19, 2005. 37 See www.greencarcongress.com. 38 See www.dieselnet.com. 39 American Lung Association, Automotive News Europe (March 23, 2005), Health Effects Institute and Merrill Lynch, Energy Security and Climate Change, June 2005 40 See Automotive News Europe (March 23, 2005), and Merrill Lynch, Energy Security and Climate Change, June 2005. 41 See Automotive News Europe (March 23, 2005), and Merrill Lynch, Energy Security and Climate Change, June 2005. 42 US Department of Energy, EPA, www.fueleconomy.gov. 43 International Energy Agency, Making Cars More Efficient, 2005, US Department of Energy, Energy Efficient Technologies, found on www. fueleconomy.gov, US EPA, Interim Report: New Powertrain Technologies and Their Projected Costs, October 2005 and Sustainable Mobility Project, Mobility 2030: Meeting the Challenge to Sustainability, 2004. 44 David Freidman, Union of Concerned Scientists, A New Road: The Technology and Potential of Hybrid Vehicles, January 3, 2003 and The Diesel Dilemma, January 2004, International Energy Agency, Making Cars More Efficient, 2005, and US Department of Energy, Energy Efficient Technologies on www.fueleconomy.gov, Brent Smith, Center for Automotive Research, Advanced Power Technology Alliance: Advanced Internal Combustion Engine Survey, April 2004, and The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Sustainable Mobility Project, Mobility 2030: Meeting the Challenges to Sustainability, 2004, John M. DeCicco, Hybrid Vehicles in Perspective: Opportunities, Obstacles, and Outlook, Environmental Defense, September 2000, and Michael Bruynesteyn, Electrifying Future for Hybrids, November 2004, Prudential Equity Group. Set America Free, A Blueprint for US Energy Security, 2005 and James Woosley, Testimony to US Congress, 2005.
48
45 Greencarcongress.com, February 27, 2006. 46 US Studies Fuel Alternatives to Keep Army on the Move, Financial
Times, March 2003.

47 Military fuel costs spur look at gas-guzzlers, USA Today, March 9, 2006. 48 Survey report issued by Polk Center for Automotive Studies, R.L. Polk on
July 19, 2005.

49 Jim Press, President, Toyota Motors North America, 2006, North American
Auto Show.
50 Mark Wan, Modern Diesel Engines, www.autozine.org. 51 Wards Automotive; Charles Wessner, National Research Council, The
Advanced Technology Program: Assessing Outcomes, and US EPA, Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2005. 52 Consumer Reports, April 2006. 53 California Energy Commission, Analysis and Forecast of the Performance and Cost of Conventional and Electric-Hybrid Vehicles, March 2002. Menahem Anderman, Fritz Kalhammer, et al, Advanced Batteries for Electrical Vehicles: An Assessment of Performance, Cost, and Availability, Battery Technology Advisory Panel, California Air Resources Board, June 2000. 54 For a review of several academic studies on potential future hybrid costs, see Lloyd Dixon, Isaac Porche, et al Driving Emissions to Zero: Are the Benefits of Californias Zero Emission Vehicle Program Worth the Costs?, RAND Monograph Report, 2002. John M. DeCicco, Hybrid Vehicles in Perspective: Opportunities, Obstacles, and Outlook, Environmental Defense, September 2000. The OEMs and auto parts suppliers we spoke to regarding hybrid costs include all the major OEMs (DaimlerChrysler, Ford, GM, Honda, Nissan, Toyota), as well as the largest hybrid component suppliers (Aisin Seki, Continental AG, Denso, Energy Conversion Devices, Hitachi, Johnson Controls, Matsushita, Sanyo, Toshiba and Toyota Industries). 55 David Hermance, Executive Engineer, Environmental Engineering, Toyota Technical Center, Toyota Motors, USA. 56 See www.hybridcars.com, www.hybridcenter.org and www.soultek.com. 57 Therese Langer and Daniel Willams, Greener Fleets: Fuel Economy Progress and Prospects, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, December 2002. 58 See www.fiscallygreen.ca/experience2.html, Tax Incentives for Hybrid Cars, Automotive News Europe, December 1, 2003, www.heluev.gr/en/ incentives.html and www.greencarcongress.com. 59 Langer and Williams, 2002. 60 Langer and Williams, 2002, representatives of the California Air Resources Board and www.hybridcars.com. 61 Feng An and Amanda Sauer, Comparison of Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards Around the World, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, December 2004. 62 California Energy Commission (CEC), Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), Energy and Environmental Analysis (EEA), JPMorgan (JPM), Patrick Hammett et al, Fuel-Savings Technologies and Facility Conversion: Costs, Benefits, and Incentives, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (2004) and SAFT. 63 See US Department of Energy, FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program, 2004 Annual Progress Report, Energy Storage Research and Development for more information. 64 John Searle, CEO, Saft Groupe SA, Menahem Anderman at the Advanced Automotive Battery & Ultracapacitor Conference, 2005, Robert Spotnitz, 2005 IEEE Vehicle Power Propulsion Conference, and James Moore, Goldman Sachs. See also Hybrids with Li-ion in their Tank, BusinessWeek, January 26, 2006. 65 Morgan Stanley, Neomax Initiation Report, 2005, and California Energy Commission, Analysis and Forecast of the Performance and Cost of Conventional and Electric Hybrid Vehicles, 2002. 66 Morgan Stanley (2005). 67 Morgan Stanley (2005). 68 Toyota Motors, Hybrid Synergy System, 2004. 69 Masayasu Ishiko, Recent R&D Activities of Power Devices for Hybrid Electric Vehicles, Toyota Research Laboratories. 70 Terry Costlow, Wire Trimming, Automotive Engineering International, December 2005. 71 See the Industrial Development and Investment Center, Ministry of
Economic Analysis, Taiwan. http://investintaiwan.nat.gov.tw/en/ and The Wall Street Journal, June 16, 2005. 72 Morgan Stanley, Denso reports. 73 Gabriel Leen and Donal Heffernan, Expanding Automotive Electronic Systems, Computer, January 2002. 74 Leen and Heffernan (2002), Ming-Kai Cheng, CSLA, Auto Electronics, (2005), and John Murphy, Merrill Lynch, Who Makes the Car? (2002), Ashok Bindra, Electronics Redefines the Auto of the Future, Electronic Design, Dec. 2000, Strategy Analysis, and Mckinsey report cited in BusinessWeek, January 16, 2006. 75 Merrill Lynch and Peter Huber and Mark Mills, Forbes, April 11, 2005 and AllianceBernstein estimates. 76 Leen and Heffernan and Nico Kelling and Patrick Leteinturier, Infineon Technologies, X-by-Wire: Opportunities, Challenges, and Trends, presentation at SAE 2003. 77 Franz Fehrenbach, Chairman, Robert Bosch GmbH, keynote address to Convergence 2004, Frost and Sullivan, and Mckinsey report cited in BusinessWeek, Dream Machines, January 16, 2006. 78 DaimlerChrysler engineers. 79 CSLA (2005). 80 Databeans, Fairchild, Freescale, Infineon and AllianceBernstein. 81 CSLA (2005), Freedonia, Freescale, Infineon, Strategy Analysis. 82 CSLA (2005). 83 Michael Santarini, EDN, Design Challenges Steer Automotive Electronics, January 5, 2006. 84 Chris Appleton, Role of Flash-Based ECUs and Networks Toward Enabling Environmental Friendly Vehicles, Microchip Technology, Jim Lipman, Silicon Fuels the Automotive Industry, SemiView, March 29, 2004. 85 Jim Lipman (2004). 86 Automotive Fleet 2005 from www.fleet-central.com, US Department of Transportation, National Household Travel Surveys, Stacy C. Davis and Susan W. Diegel, US Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 24, P.S. Hu (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) and Michael Wang (Argonne National Laboratory), State Fleets and Their Potential Acquisition of Alternative Fueled Vehicles Under EPACT 507, Center for Automotive Safety, Ford Motor Company, Hertz, US Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, Transportation Energy Consumption Survey and Annual Energy Outlook, US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Studies and US Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics. 87 Society of Motor Manufactures and Traders Limited (SMMT), United Kingdom, Motor Industry Facts, 2006. 88 New York Taxi & Limousine Commission, Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Cost/ Benefit Overview, September 8, 2005. 89 US Department of Transportation, National Household Travel Surveys, Stacy C. Davis and Susan W. Diegel, US Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 24, December 2004 and Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI) presentations. 90 EPRI has published several reports on hybrid, plug-in hybrids and electrical vehicles. See Advanced Batteries for Electrical-Drive Vehicles: A Technology and Cost-Effectiveness Assessment for Battery Electric Vehicles, Power Assist Hybrid Electrical Vehicles, and Plug-In Hybrid Electrical Vehicles, May 2004, An Assessment of Advanced Battery Technologies for Plug-In Hybrid Electric and Battery Electric Vehicles, February 2003, Comparing the Benefits and Impacts of Hybrid Electric Vehicle Options for Compact Sedan and Sport Utility Vehicles, July 2002, Lucy Sanna, Driving the Solution: The Plug-In Vehicle, ERPI Journal, Fall 2005, as well as conference presentations by Mark Duvall, Robert Grahman and Mark Alexander. 91 Valence Technologies, www.calcars.com and www.edrive.com. 92 Argonne National Laboratory study and estimate from Shell that the likely cost would be in hundreds of billions of dollars are cited in Joseph Romm, The Hype of Hydrogen and 2020 Vision: The Future of Oil, Cars, and Our Climate, 2005. 93 Scott Miller, CEO, Synovate Motorsearch, Presentation at the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC), 2006. 94 Dan Rolling, Greater Copper and Nickel Usage in Hybrid Autos, May 2005, Merrill Lynch. 95 Conversation with Dan Rolling, Merrill Lynch.
49
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The rapid integration of the worlds economies and nancial markets over the past decade has forced governments, businesses and individuals everywhere to think more globally. Yet, when it comes to managing their money, investors around the world still prefer to stay at home. What drives this bias? We examine four major explanations, and show why theyre wrong.
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A successful growth investment strategy, our research suggests, is one that focuses not on absolute growth forecasts, but rather on returns available from positive growth-rate surprises, coupled with exit policies that are designed to preempt the negative effects of mean reversion. Moreover, we have found that earnings surprises can be predicted.
Our research indicates that BSAs are a powerful indicator of future earnings and stock prices because they capture the risk that the accrual component of earnings is not reliable and is unlikely to persist.The tool appears to be effective for large-cap and small-cap stocks, and within the growth and value realms in major markets around the world.
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These publications, along with many others, are available at our website, www.alliancebernstein.com/institutional; or call Evelyn Cainto at 212.969.2113.
Chinas emerging competitors pose a signicant disruptive threat to the incumbent leaders in many global industries. The likely beneciaries of Chinas growth are also surprising.
AllianceBernstein L.P. is one of the worlds leading institutional investment managers. Our worldwide presence, breadth of services and depth of research allow us to offer a full array of investment products, both global and local, in every major market. AllianceBernstein encompasses four preeminent investment brands: Bernstein Value Equities, Alliance Growth Equities, AllianceBernstein Style Blend and AllianceBernstein Fixed Income.
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The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles

Ending Oils Stranglehold on Transportation and the Economy

Research on Strategic Change

AllianceBernstein Research on Strategic Change

Comparison of Oil Demand Forecast Assumptions for Light-Duty Vehicles

Avg. Miles per Gallon

Total (Millions of Barrels per Day)

Research on Strategic Change

economy by 20% to 80% over comparable conventional

AllianceBernstein Research on Strategic Change

We expect the number of hybrid vehicles to grow rapidly

The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles

The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles

AllianceBernstein Research on Strategic Change

The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles

TRANSPORTATION TRANSITIONS: A HISTORY

Humanitys Search for Greater Power

BRITAINS TRANSITION TO OIL

The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles

Higher-Density Fuels Boost Efficiency and Power

Coal Oil Natural Gas Microwave (Charcoal) (Kerosene) (LPG) (Electricity)

AllianceBernstein Research on Strategic Change

An Increasing Share of Energy Demand Is for Electricity

The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles

OIL DEMAND YESTERDAY AND TOMORROW

Transportation Drives Rise in Global Oil Demand

Non-Transport Total: 49 Mil. Total: 77 Mil. Total: 121 Mil.

Sources: IEA,World Energy Outlook 2004 and AllianceBernstein Display 6

Electric Generation Is Increasingly Less Reliant on Oil

Within Transportation, Light-Duty Vehicles Are Critical

32 2030E Total: 121 Mil.

AllianceBernstein Research on Strategic Change

Comparison of Oil Demand Forecast Assumptions

Avg. Miles per Gallon

Total (Millions of Barrels per Day)

Research on Strategic Change

Sensitivity of Demand Estimates to Fuel-Efficiency Assumption

MPG Assumption: 25.1 mpg (IEA)

40 mpg 60 mpg (Illustrative)

The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles

Hybrids Are Far More Attractive than the Alternatives

High Medium Low

AllianceBernstein Research on Strategic Change

IS DIESEL AN ATTRACTIVE ALTERNATIVE?

Diesels Sacrifice Acceleration to Improve Fuel Economy

Acceleration (Seconds from 0 to 60 mph) Source: Autos.com, carsdirect.com and fueleconomy.org

Hybrids Improve Acceleration and Fuel Economy

Acceleration (Seconds from 0 to 60 mph) Source: Cars.com, carsdirect.com,Toyota and AllianceBernstein

The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles

Diesels Will Soon Face Stricter Emissions Standards

Japan (2002) Euro 3 (2000)

Euro 5 (2008) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

AllianceBernstein Research on Strategic Change

Electricity Is Far More Efficient Way to Power Cars

80% Driveline Electric Loss Resistance (62)%

Idle Loss Driveline Loss 15%

The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles

AllianceBernstein Research on Strategic Change

Fuel Efficiency Rises with Ratio of Electric to Total Power