COST OF CAPITAL

Trends, Tools, and Applications

Jason MacMorran

Objectives and Outline

Introduction
Objectives
Discuss key components and concepts used to determine cost of capital Discuss recent trends and issues related to cost of capital components Illustrate the application of each component of cost of capital Valuation focus

Introduction
Outline
I. Introduction and Key Concepts II. Risk-free Rate III. Equity Risk Premium IV. Size Premium V. Industry Adjustments VI. Company Specific Risk Premium VII. The Big Picture VIII.Special Topics IX. Questions and Comments

Introduction

Introduction
Just Semantics?
Cost of capital - is the expected rate of return that market participants require in order to attract funds to a particular investment
Sometimes referred to as expected or required rate of return, discount rate, or opportunity cost of capital

Cost of equity Weighted average cost of capital Capitalization rate

Introduction
Core Components
Risk-free Rate Equity Risk Premium Size Risk Premium Industry Adjustment
Industry Risk Premium Beta

Capital Structure
Debt Capital Preferred Equity Common Equity

Company Specific Risk Premium

Introduction
Build-Up Method
COE = Rf + ERP + SP + IRP+ CSRP Inputs

COE = Cost of equity Rf = Risk-free rate ERP = Equity risk premium SP = Size risk premium IRP = Industry risk premium CSRP = Company specific risk premium

Introduction
Modified Capital Asset Pricing Model
COE = Rf + (ERP x )+ SP + CSRP

Inputs

COE = Cost of equity Rf = Risk-free rate ERP = Equity risk premium = Beta coefficient SP = Size risk premium CSRP = Company specific risk premium

Risk-free Rate

Risk-free Rate
Overview
Most cost of capital models assume a single, riskless asset Theoretically, the rate of return expected from an investment with absolutely no default risk and no reinvestment risk
Represents the theoretical minimum for expected rates of return

Components of the risk-free rate:

Rental rate return for lending funds Inflation expected rate of inflation during the lending period Maturity risk risk of change in value during the lending period

Risk-free Rate
Rates and Sources
In reality, no investment is truly riskfree
Even the least risky investments carry a very small amount of risk

The most commonly accepted riskfree rates are derived from US treasury security yields
Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Which type and term of US treasury security should be used in a valuation?

20-year Treasury Bonds
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H15/data.htm

Risk-free Rate
Application
What term? Horizon of the Treasury bond should match the horizon of what is being valued. Horizon is a function of the investment, not the investor (i.e. indifferent to investor holding period expectation) Why 20 year maturity instead of 30? It is baked into SBBI numbers! Treasury bond or Treasury STRIP? Bond is typically more appropriate if the asset spins off cash periodically; if the asset provides a single payoff at the end of its term, then a STRIP yield may be more appropriate Arent risk-free rates without controversy?

Risk-free Rate
Economic Considerations
Treasury rates declined rapidly Q4 2008 Was this decline a change in expectations regarding inflation? Real interest? Flight to quality? Panic? Should the decline be adjusted for?
Roger Grabowski (Duff & Phelps) suggested that one should ignore the 12/31/08 spot yield on the 20-year treasury and use a longer term average (say, 4.5%-5.0%) Jim Harrington (Morningstar) suggested that by adding 1% or 2% to your risk free rate because you feel risk free rates are too low assumed that: Markets are not efficient Present yields would regress to previous levels

Historical Risk-free Rates of Return

1995 - 2010
8.00%

7.00%

6.00%

Rate of Return

5.00%

4.00%

3.00%

20-Year Treasury Bonds 12/31/2008

2.00%

1.00%

Today

0.00%

Data Source: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Risk-free Rate
Alternatives?
Are US treasury securities truly the least risky investment available?
Rarely called into question until catastrophic events (i.e. war, recession, currency devaluation, etc.) Backed by good-faith of US government
May raise taxes or issue currency to avoid default

Moodys threatened to downgrade US rating of AAA in early 2010 due to growing budget deficit Are any alternatives available? Greek debt, anyone?

Equity Risk Premium

Equity Risk Premium

The Basics
Equity risk premium the additional return an investor expects to receive as compensation for the risk associated with investing in equities as opposed to investing in riskless assets (Morningstar). Basic Elements
Stock market return (Rm) Risk-free rate (Rf) Time period

ERP = Rm - Rf

Not observable, must be estimated Neutral to minority and control considerations

Equity Risk Premium

Estimation Sources
Morningstar Historical Supply Side Duff & Phelps Investor surveys Implied from markets

Equity Risk Premium

Morningstar Historical Equity Risk Premium
Commonly cited ERP 6.67% - December 2009

Based on:
Large company stocks, usually S&P 500
Can be calculated on other indices

Risk-free rate is 20 year Treasury income return

Income return only is used in calculating ERP, but yield is appropriate in developing forward looking cost of capital

Time-Period
1926 2009

Average Historical Equity Risk Premium, Morningstar 1926 - 2009

30.00%

25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%

-5.00%

Data Source: SBBI Valuation Edition 2010 Yearbook

Average Historical Equity Risk Premium, Morningstar

Varying Starting Time Periods (1926 - 2009)
8.00% 6.67% 6.00% 6.66% 6.04% 5.40% 4.13% 4.00% 4.12% 4.97%

2.00%

0.00%

-2.00% -3.75% -4.00%

Data Source: SBBI Valuation Edition 2010 Yearbook

Equity Risk Premium

Morningstar Historical Equity Risk Premium
Relies on a future equals the past assumption Why 1926?
Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) started keeping data in 1926. Conscious effort to include extremely volatile 1920s and 1930s

Analysis reveals sensitivity to start date Historical ERP receiving more criticisms lately
Many articles on downward adjustments over past few years Delaware Court of Chancery decision in Global GT v. Golden Telcom (4/23/10) failed to adopt Morningstar historical ERP in favor of lower ERP

Equity Risk Premium

Morningstar Supply Side Equity Risk Premium Published first in 2005 Yearbook 5.2% - December 2009

Based on:
Large company stocks, usually S&P 500
Can be calculated on other indices

Risk-free rate is 20 year Treasury income return

Income return only is used in calculating ERP, but yield is appropriate in developing forward looking cost of capital

Time-Period
1926 2009

Equity Risk Premium

Morningstar Supply Side Equity Risk Model Forward looking model, using historical data General concept
Supply of market returns generated by productivity of corporations Investors should not expect a return much different than that produced by corporations Therefore, over the long-run, equity returns should approximate the supply of market returns

Equity Risk Premium

Morningstar Supply Side Equity Risk Model Historical returns measured by:
Inflation Income return Growth in real earnings per share (EPS) Growth in Price / Earnings (P/E)

Supply model eliminates growth in P/E Growth in P/E is a reflection of investors changing predictions of future earnings growth. The past supply of corporate growth is expected to continue, however, a change in investors predictions is not. Ibbotson.

Comparison: Morningstar Historical vs. Supply Equity Risk Premium

8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% 4.00%

Supply

Historic

Data Source: SBBI Valuation Edition 2010 Yearbook

Equity Risk Premium

Duff & Phelps
Primarily a size premium study Large stock ERP 4.25% - December 2009

Based on:
Companies in NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ Risk-free rate is 20 year Treasury income return
Income return only is used in calculating ERP, but yield is appropriate in developing forward looking cost of capital

Time-Period
1963 2009

Equity Risk Premium

Duff & Phelps
Based on CRSP and Compustat data Excludes financial services companies Excludes companies
Lacking five years of publicly traded price history Sales below $1M in any of the previous five years Negative five-year average EBITDA

Creates a separate high-financial risk group Why 1963?

Compustat database established in 1963

Comparison of Equity Risk Premiums Morningstar (SBBI) vs. Duff & Phelps
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2005 2006 2007 SBBI - Supply 2008 Duff & Phelps 2009 SBBI - Historic

Data Sources: SBBI Valuation Edition Yearbooks and Duff & Phelps Risk Premium Reports

Equity Risk Premium

Survey Investors
Survey Investors Advantages: Direct financial data from actual marketplace Disadvantages: No constraints on range of data responses Impractical Unpredictable Source examples: Ivo Welch John Graham and Campbell Harvey Greenwich Associates

Equity Risk Premium

Is ERP Conditional?
Unconditional vs. Conditional

Unconditional
Static estimate Example: Long-term historic (Morningstar, 6.67%) Represents average ERP over an entire business cycle

Conditional
ERP is cyclical during the business cycle
Higher ERP in bear markets Lower ERP in bull markets

Conditional ERP assumed to reflect the current market conditions ERP is within a reasonable range

Comparison: Average Historical Equity Risk Premium (Morningstar) to Average S&P 500 Returns
Time Period (1951 - 2009)
40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%

-10.00%

-20.00%

-30.00%

ERP (start 1951)

S&P 500 Return

Data Source: SBBI Valuation Edition 2010 Yearbook

Equity Risk Premium

Implied Equity Risk Premium
Calculated from market expectations (i.e. conditional) Aswath Damodaran, Stern School of Business (NYU) posts on his website
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

Implied from S&P 500 4.73% - December 2009

ERP%

Comparison: Conditional Equity Risk Premium and S&P 500 January, 2009 through September, 2010

S&P 500

9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Nov-09 Apr-10 Aug-09 May-09 May-10 Mar-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Apr-09 Jan-10 Sep-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Jan-09 Feb-09 Feb-10 Jun-09 Oct-09 Jun-10 Jul-09 Jul-10

1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

ERP

S&P 500

Data Source: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

Equity Risk Premium

Summary and Application
From the same data, different ERPs! Many articles and now cases are starting to embrace ERPs lower than Morningstar historical If you use Duff & Phelps for a build-up, you are starting with a 4.25% ERP On reducing ERPs: While some of these theories are compelling in an academic framework, most do little to prove that the equity risk premium is too high. Ibbotson And the data says

Comparison: Equity Risk Premiums

As of December 31, 2009

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

6.7% 5.2% 4.3%

4.8%

Size Premium

Size Premium
Overview
Compensates for the size effect, or empirical observations that smaller size is associated with greater risk and, therefore, higher cost of capital Size premiums are utilized because CAPM does not fully account for the higher returns of small company stocks Two primary studies for estimating the size premium Morningstar Duff & Phelps Not going to discuss general criticisms of the existence of the size premium (information asymmetries, liquidity, delisting bias, etc)

Size Premium
Morningstar Overview
Calculates size premiums based on the market capitalization of publicly-traded companies
Stock returns of companies traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ Uses CRSP database Data back to 1926
Decile 1 - Largest 2 Market Cap of Largest Company Largest Company (in thousands) $ 329,725,255 Exxon Mobil Corp. 14,691,668 Sysco Corp. American International 5,936,147 Group Inc. 3,414,634 Resmed Inc. 2,384,026 Mirant Corp. Cypress Semiconductor 1,600,169 corp. 1,063,308 Enersys 684,790 Live Nation Inc. American 431,256 Reprographics Co. Quicksilver Gas 214,111 Services LP

3 4 5

6 7 8

Segregates companies into 10 deciles based on each companys market capitalization

9 10 - Smallest

Data Source: SBBI Valuation Edition 2010 Yearbook

Size Premium
Morningstar Overview
Morningstar calculates certain metrics for each decile
Beta Arithmetic Mean Return Actual Return in Excess of Riskless Rate CAPM Return in Excess of Riskless Rate Return in Excess of CAPM

The appropriate size premium is the Return in Excess of CAPM (beta adjusted)

Size Premium
Morningstar Overview
Morningstar size premia have been adjusted for beta
The portion of excess returns that can be explained by higher betas are not in the size premium

Some analysts suggest using a non-beta adjusted small stock premium in a build-up model
Calculated as arithmetic mean of small company stock return less arithmetic mean of large company stock return, or for decile 10: 20.85% (small) 11.85% (large) = 9% (see Table 7.5 SBBI) Morningstar recommends against this, as it assumes the subject company has the same beta as the portfolio of small stocks and typically overstates the cost of capital

Size Premium
Morningstar Data
Decile 1 - Largest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 - Smallest Beta 0.91 1.03 1.10 1.12 1.16 1.18 1.24 1.30 1.35 1.41 Arithmetic Mean Return (%) 10.90 12.81 13.36 13.82 14.59 14.81 15.19 16.33 17.01 20.85 Actual Return in Excess of Riskless Rate (%) 5.72 7.64 8.18 8.65 9.41 9.63 10.01 11.15 11.84 15.68 CAPM Return in Excess of Riskless Rate (%) 6.09 6.90 7.33 7.50 7.72 7.90 8.28 8.67 8.99 9.39 Size Premium (Return in Excess of CAPM)(%) -0.37 0.74 0.85 1.15 1.69 1.73 1.73 2.49 2.85 6.28

Data Source: SBBI Valuation Edition 2010 Yearbook

Size Premium
Morningstars 10th Decile
Morningstar breaks down decile 10 for further analysis Split to 10a/10b in 2001 Split to w,x,y,z in 2010 Observations
Disproportionately high number of companies in 10z 10z may represent small market cap, but not small size
Decile Recent Number of Companies Market Capitalization of Largest Company (in thousands) $ 214,111 214,111 169,497 123,516 123,516 Company Name

10a 10w 10x 10b 10y

395 163 232 1382 302

Quicksilver Gas Services, LP Quicksilver Gas Services, LP Landry's Restaurants, Inc. Lee Enterprises Lee Enterprises Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation A

10z

1080

76,052

Data Source: SBBI Valuation Edition 2010 Yearbook

Size Premium
Morningstar Data (10th Decile Breakdown Included)
Decile 1 - Largest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 - Smallest 10a 10w 10x 10b 10y 10z Beta 0.91 1.03 1.10 1.12 1.16 1.18 1.24 1.30 1.35 1.41 1.42 1.39 1.45 1.38 1.40 1.35 Arithmetic Mean Return (%) 10.90 12.81 13.36 13.82 14.59 14.81 15.19 16.33 17.01 20.85 19.10 18.33 19.78 24.39 23.58 26.23 Actual Return in Excess of Riskless Rate (%) 5.72 7.64 8.18 8.65 9.41 9.63 10.01 11.15 11.84 15.68 13.92 13.15 14.60 19.21 18.40 21.05 CAPM Return in Excess of Riskless Rate (%) 6.09 6.90 7.33 7.50 7.72 7.90 8.28 8.67 8.99 9.39 9.47 9.30 9.69 9.20 9.35 8.99 Size Premium (Return in Excess of CAPM)(%) -0.37 0.74 0.85 1.15 1.69 1.73 1.73 2.49 2.85 6.28 4.45 3.85 4.91 10.01 9.05 12.06

Data Source: SBBI Valuation Edition 2010 Yearbook

Size Premium
Criticisms of Morningstar
Market Value of Equity as only measure of size
Large companies with small market capitalization (say, distressed companies) may dwell in 10th decile

Does not exclude distressed companies Breaking down the smallest decile lowers the statistical significance of the results compared to the whole decile Number of companies in 10th decile (1,777 as of 2009)
1926 52 companies 1950 100 companies 1980 685 companies 1990 1,814 companies

Size Premium
Duff & Phelps Overview
Duff & Phelps, LLCs Risk Premium Report has gained broader acceptance in recent years, particularly related to estimating size premiums Duff & Phelps estimates size premiums using eight measurements, not just market capitalization
Market capitalization is a function of the discount rate and, therefore, a circular calculation Large, highly leveraged companies may have small market capitalizations

Size Premium
Duff & Phelps Overview
Based on CRSP and Compustat data Excludes financial services companies Excludes companies
Lacking five years of publicly traded price history Sales below $1M in any of the previous five years Negative five-year average EBITDA

Creates a separate high-financial risk group Why 1963?

Compustat database established in 1963

Size Premium
Duff & Phelps Overview
Data is broken into 25 portfolios on eight measures of size:
Market value of equity Book value of equity Five-year average net income Market value of invested capital Total assets Five-year average EBITDA Net sales Number of employees

Size Premium
Duff & Phelps Overview
Report contains several exhibits, including
A-1 to A-8 Premium Over Risk-free Rate; for use in buildup model B-1 to B-8 Premium Over CAPM; for use in MCAPM

Each exhibit is data intensive, including

Portfolio ranks and average size value Number of companies per portfolio Multiple statistical measures Average capital structure

Size Premium
Duff & Phelps Data

Data Source: Duff & Phelps Risk Premiums Report

Size Premium
Application of Duff & Phelps
Build-up Example - traditional
COE = Rf + ERP + SP + IRP+ CSRP

Build-up Example Duff & Phelps

COE = Rf + RM+S + IRP+ CSRP

RM+S = ERP plus risk premium for size, or premium over risk-free rate

Size Premium
Duff & Phelps Build-up Example, book value
Select your portfolio by size
Assume book value is $25M, therefore portfolio 25

Find appropriate risk premium

Smoothed average risk premium for 25th portfolio = 11.08% Arithmetic average risk premium for 25th portfolio = 11.24%

Regression formula for smoothed premiums available to extrapolate risk premiums

Smoothed premium = 15.190% - 2.296% x log (book value) 15.190% - 2.296% x log(25) = 11.98%

Size Premium
Applying Duff & Phelps - Caveats
Smoothed average risk premium is typically most appropriate However, at the smallest and largest ends of the data, average premiums may jump off the smoothed line (see graph on next slide) Be careful using regression formula on companies significantly outside the range of Duff & Phelps data

Size Premium
Applying Duff & Phelps - Caveats

Data Source: Duff & Phelps Risk Premiums Report

Size Premium
Applying Duff & Phelps Caveats

Grabowski: be cautious about extrapolating a statistical relationship far beyond the range of the data used in the statistical analysis.
Data Source: Duff & Phelps Risk Premiums Report

Size Premium
Duff & Phelps Consistency Adjustments
As mentioned earlier, if you use Duff & Phelps unadjusted, you are accepting a 4.25% ERP; if you believe ERP is 5.00%, you make an adjustment to the cost of capital:
Adjustment for ERP = 5.00% - 4.25% = 0.75%

A similar adjustment is made for industry risk premiums; if your SBBI IRP is 2.00% (based on SBBI ERP of 6.7%), you make an adjustment for the new ERP:
Adjusted IRP = 2.00% x (5.0%/6.7%) = 1.49%

Size Premium
Comparison of the Studies
Components
Historical data Underlying avg. historical ERP Underlying avg. historical RFR Number of size groupings Avg. market capitalization of smallest grouping Distressed companies Delisted companies Size measures Breakdown of smallest grouping

Morningstar
Starts in 1926 6.67% 5.18% 10 deciles $87 million (10th decile) Included Excluded Market capitalization Yes, into 2 or 4 groupings with premiums

Duff & Phelps

Starts in 1963 4.25% 6.96% 25 portfolios $95 million (25th portfolio) Included in separate database Included at assumed 30% loss 8 measures Yes, into 5,25,50,75, & 90th percentiles without premiums

Industry Adjustments

Industry Adjustments
Overview
Two primary adjustments
Morningstar IRP for build-up Beta in MCAPM

Generally speaking, adjustment:

Greater than zero = riskier than the market Equal to zero = same risk as the market Less than zero = less risky than the market

Industry Adjustments
Morningstar IRP
Listed by 2, 3, and 4 digit SIC codes (see Table 3-5 of current Yearbook) Based on full information beta estimates (basically a peer group average beta) Screening criteria:
At least 36 months of return data Sales greater than $1M Market capitalization of at least $10,000 Five or more participants per SIC code

Industry Adjustments
Morningstar IRP
IRPi = (Ri x ERP) ERP IRPi = the expected risk premium for industry i, or the amount by which investors expect the future return of the industry to exceed the overall market return. Ri = the risk index for industry i ERP = the expected equity risk premium

Morningstar IRPs are based on historical ERP (6.7%); if you use a different ERP, consider adjusting IRP

Industry Adjustments
Morningstar IRP Application
Define industry and SIC code; example, grocery store
Two digit SIC 54, Food Stores, IRP = -3.46% (20 observations) Three digit SIC 541, Grocery Stores, IRP = -3.43% (18) Four digit SIC 5411, Grocery Stores, IRP = -3.47% (17)

Add to build-up model Generally speaking:

More observations are better (remember, 5 is minimum) Granularity of SIC code is better (four digit better than two digit all things being equal)

Industry Adjustments
Morningstar IRP Criticisms
Some industries really dont have enough observations Some data doesnt make sense on face value
Restaurants (SIC 5812) have IRP of -0.65%; less risky than the market? Who are these companies?

Companies in a particular SIC code may be less like the subject company than you think

Industry Adjustments
Morningstar IRP Company List
Industry Premia Company List Report available at http://corporate.morningstar.com/IRP

Industry Adjustments
Beta Overview
Beta is a measure of the systematic risk of a security, i.e. beta measures a securitys sensitivity to the market as a whole It is estimated by regressing the excess returns of a security against the markets excess returns. Beta estimation is a complex subject; well discuss major points of contention
Sources and market proxies Time period and frequency Adjustment factors Levered or unlevered

Industry Adjustments
Beta Sources
Common sources
Bloomberg Compustat Capital IQ ValueLine Morningstar (Beta Book and Cost of Capital Book) Barra Independent calculations from stock prices
Covariance of stock and market returns / variance of market returns

Google, Reuters, Yahoo, etc. may reference the above sources

Industry Adjustments
Beta Market Proxies
CAPM says appropriate market proxy is the entire market of all risky assets; however, not a very practical market Theoretically, the broader the index, the better the beta estimation; however, studies have shown market proxy to have a minor impact Major sources
Bloomberg select from over 20 series, S&P 500 default Compustat and Morningstar S&P 500 Capital IQ select from over 8 series, S&P 500 default ValueLine NYSE

Industry Adjustments
Beta Time Period
Ideally, beta should be measured over a long time period (i.e. more data points) to increase precision However, changes in industry (i.e. airlines after 9/11; banks in 2008/2009) may merit different time period Five years has become an accepted time period Major sources
Bloomberg and Capital IQ adjustable, default is two years Compustat, Morningstar, and ValueLine five years

Industry Adjustments
Beta Time Interval/Frequency
What frequency? Daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annually? Goal is more data points, so over five years, quarterly and annually will not be enough, but daily adds noise Major sources
Bloomberg and Capital IQ adjustable, default is weekly Compustat and Morningstar monthly ValueLine weekly

Industry Adjustments
Beta Normalization Adjustments
Beta estimation should be forward-looking, but calculations are all historical Studies (Blume, Vasicek) have suggested that betas revert to the mean (market beta of one or industry beta) over time Major sources
Bloomberg (0.67 x beta) + (0.33 x 1.0); Blume method Compustat and Capital IQ unadjusted Morningstar Vasicek adjustment (reverts to industry) ValueLine 0.35 + (0.67 x beta)

Industry Adjustments
Why do we care?
Which beta is right for Exxon (10/15/10)?
Google Finance / Reuters = 0.48 Yahoo Finance = 0.38 ValueLine = 0.75

All are right, but they are calculated in different ways So, which one? It may be a matter of analyst preference or matching specific facts to calculation approaches

Industry Adjustments
Beta Levered or Unlevered
Observed beta from stock prices inherently include the business and financing risks for a company, and are called levered or equity betas An unlevered beta (or asset beta) removes the financing risk, and reflects only business risk Basic steps
Guideline betas are unlevered Unlevered betas are relevered based on the assumed capital structure for the subject entity

Several formulas for unlevering beta, presented Hamada model for simplicity

Industry Adjustments
Unlevering Beta
u = l / [1 + (1 t)(Wd / We)]

Inputs

u = Unlevered beta l = Levered beta t = Tax rate for the company Wd = % Debt in capital structure (market) We = % Equity in capital structure (market)

Industry Adjustments
Relevering Beta
l = u / [1 + (1 t)(Wd / We)]

Inputs

l = Levered beta u = Unlevered beta t = Tax rate for the company Wd = % Debt in capital structure (market) We = % Equity in capital structure (market)

Industry Adjustments
Beta Application
Define industry and SIC code
Use industry beta from Morningstar Look-up betas from guideline companies Calculate betas from guideline companies

Consider impact of data sources, calculation methodologies, and adjustments Relever to subject capital structure

Insert into MCAPM

Company Specific Risk Premium

Company Specific Risk Premium

Overview
Accounts for risk which is unique to the company One of the most subjective areas of business valuation Can be estimated through
Professional judgment Quantitative methods

Company Specific Risk Premium

Professional Judgment
What factors should be considered (to the extent not considered elsewhere)?
External factors
General economic outlook Industry outlook

Internal factors
Nature and history of the business Financial condition and earning capacity of the business Customer or supplier concentrations Quality of management Dependence on key employees Pending regulation or litigation Competition

Company Specific Risk Premium

Professional Judgment
What factors should be considered (to the extent not considered elsewhere)?
SWOT analysis Michael Porters Five Forces
Rivalry Threat of substitutes Buyer power Supplier power Barriers to entry

Company Specific Risk Premium

Professional Judgment
How do factors translate into an actual risk premium?
Trugman - there is no objective source of data to properly reflect or quantify the specific company risk premium. It is a matter of judgment and experience.

Component methods
Detail Observation Summary

Company Specific Risk Premium

Professional Judgment
Component Methods:
Company Specific Risk Component Quality of management Dependence on key employee Financial condition Pending litigation Total Company-Specific Risk Premium Detail (1.0)% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% Observation neutral + + 3.0% 3.0% Summary

Which one?
How did you determine quality of management to be -1.0%? Relative to what? Summary component method may be easier to defend

Company Specific Risk Premium

Quantitative Methods
Are quantitative estimates the answer?
Butler Pinkerton / Total Beta
Method proposed by Peter Butler and Keith Pinkerton in early 2007 Beta is adjusted for the total risk of the subject company
Total Beta = Beta of guideline public company / correlation of regression used to estimate Beta of guideline public company Substituting Total Beta into the CAPM model provides a new cost of equity with all non-systematic risk included The company-specific risk premium can be isolated by removing the risk-free rate, Beta x ERP, and size premium

BPM Calculator available on BVRs website Does not eliminate professional judgment

Company Specific Risk Premium

Quantitative Methods

Company Specific Risk Premium

Quantitative Methods
Recent criticism of BPM / Total Beta
Larry Kasper vs. Butler and Pinkerton Sarah von Helfenstein1 claims that the authors of Total Beta either:
Misinterpret capital market theory, Misunderstand statistical fundamentals, Manipulate statistical equations in a manner that distorts the intended relationships, Misinterpret the use of the regression equation, or Misunderstand the effect of investor diversification on the risk of the investment.

So does it pass the peer reviewed test?

1

Von Helfenstein, Sarah. "Revisiting Total Beta." Business Valuation Review 28.4 (2009): 201-23.

Company Specific Risk Premium

Quantitative Methods
Duff & Phelps Risk Study
Three alternative measures of company risk
Operating margin Coefficient of variation in operating margin Coefficient of variation in return on equity

Similar application to information in Duff & Phelps size analysis

Company Specific Risk Premium

Quantitative Methods

Data Source: Duff & Phelps Risk Premiums Report

Company Specific Risk Premium

Application
The existence of CSRPs are debated, and the quantification thereof is controversial at best
Textbook CAPM suggests that unanticipated events manifest in cash flows; only systematic risk impacts cost of capital

Quantitative models are being proposed, but some are met with stern criticism Informed judgment still essential

The Big Picture

Cost of Equity
Putting the Pieces Together
Cost of Capital - Build-up Method Comparison 12/31/09 Duff & Phelps Morningstar - Historical Risk-free rate 4.58% Risk-free rate Premium over risk-free rate 11.98% Equity risk premium adjustment Equity risk premium Estimate of equity risk premium 5.00% Implied from Duff & Phelps 4.25% Size risk premium, 10 Adjustment 0.75% Industry risk premium Industry risk premium Per Morninstar 2.00% Duff & Phelps 'Consistency' Adjustment Estimate of company (ERP Estimate / SBBI ERP) 0.75 specific risk premium Adjusted industry risk premium 1.50% Estimate of company specific risk premium 2.00% Cost of Equity 20.81% Cost of Equity

4.58% 6.67% 6.28% 2.00%

2.00%

21.53%

Cost of Equity
Putting the Pieces Together
Cost of Capital - Build-up Method Comparison 12/31/09 Duff & Phelps Morningstar - Historical Risk-free rate 4.58% Risk-free rate 4.58% Premium over risk-free rate 11.98% Equity risk premium adjustment Equity risk premium 6.67% Estimate of equity risk premium 5.00% Implied from Duff & Phelps 4.25% Size risk premium, 10b 10.01% Adjustment 0.75% Industry risk premium Industry risk premium 2.00% Per Morninstar 2.00% Duff & Phelps 'Consistency' Adjustment Estimate of company (ERP Estimate / SBBI ERP) 0.75 specific risk premium 2.00% Adjusted industry risk premium 1.50% Estimate of company specific risk premium 2.00% Cost of Equity 20.81% Cost of Equity 25.26%

WACC
Overview
The WACC is the rate a company can expect to pay to all of its security holders in financing its assets
WACC = [MVe / (MVd + MVe) x Re]+ [MVd / (MVd + MVe) x Rd x (1 t)]

Inputs MVe = Market value of equity MVd = Market value of debt Re = Cost of equity Rd = Cost of debt t = Tax rate

WACC
Capital Structure
The WACC is determined by the mix of debt and equity (i.e. capital structure) and their respective costs How is capital structure determined?
Target from industry / guideline companies Actual from subject company (use iterative calculation feature of Excel)

Minority versus control?

Minority often based on actual capital structure, as minority owners cant compel change Control can be based on target

WACC
Cost of Debt
In a forward-looking cost of capital, should be cost of new debt Practically, cost of debt can be estimated as the weighted average of existing debt at respective rates Since interest is tax deductible, the cost of debt should be computed in after-tax terms

Discounting vs. Capitalizing

Overview
Discounting (DCF)
Used to determine the present value of a series of future economic income streams

Capitalizing (CCF)
Used to convert a static period income amount into a current estimate of value

Use: When future income is expected to grow at varying rates in future periods Future increment of return is estimated specifically and included in the numerator

Use: When future income is expected to grow at a constant rate Estimates of changes in future returns are lumped into one annually compounded growth rate, which is subtracted from the growth rate in the denominator Capitalization rate = Discount rate longterm growth rate (k g) Apply to: Base period grown by growth period (CF0 * (1 + g)), or CF1

Discount rate = Cost of capital (k) Apply to: Projected period cash flows

Discounting vs. Capitalizing

Growth Rates
Sources of Growth Rates
Inflation estimates Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates Industry reports Industry association reports Management estimates (reasonableness)

Discounting vs. Capitalizing

Growth Rates

Data Source: Business Valuation Resources, Economic Outlook Update, 4Q 2009

Discounting vs. Capitalizing

Growth Rates

Data Source: IBIS World

Cost of Capital
Application
Free cash flows to equity with cost of equity = Market Value of Equity Free cash flows to invested capital with WACC = Market Value of Invested Capital
Dont forget to subtract debt for MVe!

When cash flows grow at varying rates in the future - DCF

When cash flows grow at a constant rate - CCF

Special Topics

Special Topics
Mid-Period Adjustments Private Company Cost of Capital Survey

Special Topics
Mid-period Adjustments
Mid-Period Adjustments
Traditional DCF and CCF models assume all cash is earned at the end of a period In reality, cash is usually earned at different times throughout a given period
Traditional Capitalization Discounting Mid-Year

Special Topics
Private Company Cost of Capital Survey
Pepperdine Universitys Private Capital Markets Project Survey of major market participant segments on required returns Segments (required return from 2009 survey)
Senior lenders (6.5%) Asset-based lenders (11%) Mezzanine funds (18%) Private equity groups (25%) Venture capital funds (42%)

www.bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital

Questions and Comments

Jason MacMorran, CPA/ABV/CFF, CVA, MS 225.408.4766 [email protected] http://www.pncpa.com/cnt_speaking-engagements.asp

THANK YOU!