OSEA-Building Up Momentum... HC For Free!-BUY
OSEA-Building Up Momentum... HC For Free!-BUY
OSEA-Building Up Momentum... HC For Free!-BUY
BUY
YEAR END DEC (LKR mn)
Revenue EBIT Net Profit after Tax EPS (LKR) EPS Growth (%) EPS (Net of Revaluation Gain) Recurrent EPS Growth (%) DPS Dividend Yield (%) PER (x) NAV/Share (LKR) Discount to NAV (%)
2011
2,500 613 2,600 3.14 155 0.62 15 0.30 2.1 4 24.4 (74)
2012E
1,700 704 1,100 1.30 -141 0.67 8 0.20 1.4 11 25.6 (83)
2013E
6,600 774 1,300 1.58 18 0.72 6 0.24 1.7 9 27.1 (93)
2014E
7,900 1,161 2,300 2.76 43 1.24 73 0.41 3.0 5 29.6 (112)
BUY
Date 19-Dec-12
Market Capitalization (LKR): 12bn Market Capitalization (USD): 90mn 1-year avg. Daily T/O (USD): 11k Free Float: 17% 1-year Price H/L (LKR): 14.9/10
OSEAs flagship WTC in Colombo features 95% occupancy at c.LKR 270psf on average rentals. OSEAs Havelock City (HC) mixed development on 17 acres in Colombo has recommenced, with a target completion date of 2016. CAL expects 2012-15E revenue Cagr of 67%, with c.70% of revenue for 2013 and 2014 coming via HC apartment sales. This translates into a recurrent 2012-15E EPS Cagr of c.24%. OSEAs c.74% deep discount to NAV stands out compared to the regional peer average of c.37% and local premium of 2%. CAL expects the discount to NAV to shrink as HC development visibility increases and apartment sales are booked starting 1H2013. CALs end-2013E target price for OSEA is LKR 18.1 (+29%), based on WTC FY13E reversionary rentals (c.40% discount to current NAV/share): BUY Timely Entry: Grade-A Colombo commercial occupancies are c.95% and majority owner occupied, while prime retail space is non-existent. Further, there is an imminent over-supply of residential space, with 80%+ of new apartments priced >LKR 25mn (vs. c.70% of demand is for units <LKR 25mn). HCs units are priced c.LKR 25mn.
CAL Securities
Conservative Growth Assumptions: CALs forecast assumes c.64% of phase II and III apartments to be sold and a 44% occupancy rate of commercial space end-2015 with stable rents assured. OSEA has already sold 50% of its Phase II project. Upside of c.29% Possible: OSEAs 2011 revenues were LKR 2.5bn, which CAL expects to decrease to LKR 1.7bn in 2012E due to revenue recognition policies. However, 2013E revenues should grow by c.280% YoY, translating to a recurrent EPS of LKR 0.72. CAL expects discount to NAV to shrink to 30% of 2013E WTC reversionary NAV as HC development visibility increases and apartments sales are recognized starting 1H2013. CALs target price is LKR 18.1 (+29%): BUY
Level 5, Millennium House, No.46/58, Nawam Mawatha, Colombo 2 Tel: +94 11 231 7786 Email: [email protected]
Purasisi Jinadasa
I.
Over-supply of residential properties imminent, but opportunity remains for commercial developments
c.5% of Sri Lanka households can afford a c.LKR 25mn apartment at present income levels The Colombo property market leans heavily towards residential Over-supply of residential space imminent, particularly luxury units (>LKR 30mn) However, under-supply of commercial space in Colombo is an opportunity (c.1.4mn A-grade sq.ft. as of 2011) Colombo modern retail space also needs to catch-up to residential growth (current c.450k sq.ft.)
II.
HC comes in priced right for residential and timed right for commercial
OSEAs HC residential development to come in before the down-turn in demand Assuming 10% down and no interim payments, the HC project is feasible on a 1.5x interest coverage ratio CAL sees potential +29% upside to LKR 18.1 by end 2013 based on WTC reversionary rentals Alternatively, using a target regional peer discount to NAV generates +23% price increase to LKR 17.2 by end-2013 Havelock City development to drive a c.67% 2012-15E revenue CAGR based on conservative apartment sales (64% of phase II and III units sold by 2015E) Higher margins are also likely if mismatches arise between sales and completion of construction Havelock City commercial and retail space to provide stability post 2015 Although current rental yields are low (c.2% in 2011) adjusted yield can expand to c.5% by 2013E OSEA is down c.71% from its all-time high of LKR 24
III. Appendices
APPENDIX 1 Reversionary Rental Yield Scenario Analysis (1.5x interest coverage ratio) APPENDIX 2 Income Statement APPENDIX 3 Balance Sheet APPENDIX 4 Cash Flow Statement
I.
OVER-SUPPLY OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES IMMINENT, BUT OPPORTUNITY REMAINS FOR COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENTS
c.5% of Sri Lanka households can afford a c.LKR 25mn apartment at present income levels
c.5% of Sri Lanka households can afford an apartment >LKR 25mn based on a minimum downpayment of 30% of property value and c.USD 2,400/capita GDP Currently, c.70% of demand is for apartments within the LKR 25mn range
LKR Thsd
20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 Loan Period (in Years) Monthly income of 200k Monthly income of 600k Monthly income of 400k Max loan: LKR 5.9mn Max loan: LKR 11.7mn Max loan: LKR 17.6mn
Regular Bank Terms: - Maximum of 40% of household monthly income considered for installments - Loan interest rate is 16% fixed p.a. - Total loan is capped at 70% of property value
Avg. sq.ft.=980
The residential property market taken into consideration includes only apartments, while retail space consists of mall space. Opportunity remains to develop retail and commercial space to match the increase in residential property
Avg. sq.ft.=281k
Avg. sq.ft.=91k
Over the next few years, 80%+ of new units will be priced above LKR 30mn, leading to an over-supply. The ramp-up in apartment supply will require uptake by foreigners
However, under-supply of commercial space in Colombo is an opportunity (c.1.4mn A-grade sq.ft. as of 2011)
Millions sq.ft. 6 5 4 3 2 1 1.4 Commercial Space A-Grade Rest 3.6
Occupancy rates of commercial space in Colombo is c.95% and majority is owner dominated
Colombo modern retail space also needs to catch-up to residential growth (current c.450k sq.ft.)
644k
The additional space that we anticipate includes the Havelock City, Mustafa and Liberty shopping complexes. Total retail space within Colombo environs may increase by 42% in 2016 CAL expects real GDP/capita to reach c.USD 3,000 in 2016
453k
Current
II.
HC COMES IN PRICED RIGHT FOR RESIDENTIAL AND TIMED RIGHT FOR COMMERCIAL
CAL expects demand for apartments to decline through 2015, as the majority of apartments below LKR 25mn come into the market (includes HC) HC has already sold 50% of the units under construction in its Phase II project (c.109 apartments) and we expect c.26% of units from its Phase II and III projects to be sold by end-2013 (c.200 apartments)
Assuming 10% down and no interim payments, the HC project is feasible on a 1.5x interest coverage ratio
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 (2) (4) (6) Revenue IS CashFlow Out Apartments Cashflow In Commercial CashFlow In Apartments Cashflow Out Commercial CF End of Period 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
CAL assumes a 10% down payment, revenue recognition once 25% of construction is complete and no further interim payments till apartment hand-over (2014E for Phase II and 2016E for Phase III). OSEA can fund the project with a 1.5x interest coverage ratio on FY11 sustainable NOI of c.LKR 712mn (resulting debt of c.LKR 8.2bn and D/E of 40/60). OSEAs 3Q2012 debt was c.LKR 2.3bn (D/E 12%) OSEA has c.LKR 1.8bn in cash and has the ability to draw low-cost funding from its parent
LKR Millions
CAL sees potential +29% upside to LKR 18.1 by end 2013 based on WTC reversionary rentals
LKR thsd
WTC Leasable Area Average psf Yearly Revenue Discount Factor Property Value -Net Debt NAV/Share Current Share Price Discount to NAV
2011
583 190 1,063,392 7% 16,359,877 (999,744) 18.2 -30%
2012E
583 200 1,329,240 7% 20,449,846 (1,053,741) 23.0 LKR 14 -64%
2013E
583 270 1,794,474 7% 7,607,292 (7,729,291) 23.6 -68%
OSEAs discount to NAV in 2011 was c.30%. Maintaining a 30% discount, price/share could adjust to LKR 18.1 (+29%) end-2013E, based solely on WTC reversionary rent potential
Alternatively, using a target regional peer discount to NAV generates +23% price increase to LKR 17.2 by end-2013
COMPANY
Overseas Realty Asian Hotels & Properties AVERAGE Agile Property Holdings Franshion Properties (China) Ltd Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd AVERAGE Hongkong Land Holdings Limited Bukit Sembawang Estates Ltd Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd CapitaLand Ltd AVERAGE
COUNTRY CURRENCY
SL - LKR SL - LKR
NAV
23.5 33.8
SHARE PRICE
14.0 79.0
(DISCOUNT)/PREMIUM TO NAV
(68%) 57% (11%) 36% (10%) (19%) 2% (66%) 27% (30%) 0% (17%)
PEER AVERAGE
Amcorp Properties Bhd Country Heights Holdings BHD Eastern & Oriental Bhd AVERAGE Anant Raj Industries Ltd Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd AVERAGE MAL - RM MAL - RM MAL - RM 1.1 2.7 1.2 0.5 1.0 1.6
(8%)
(139%) (167%) 27% (93%) (25%) (109%) (67%)
IND - RS IND - RS
126.8 239.5
101.1 114.5
REGIONAL AVERAGE
(37%)
A reversion to the peer average should provide a 1-year share price upside of 56% (LKR 21.8). A more conservative regional reversion should provide a 1-year share price upside of 23% (LKR 17.2). CAL expects discount to NAV to shrink as visibility of the HC development increases and sales are booked
Source: Company Reports and CAL Estimates
rEPS: 0.62
57k
0.67
49k
0.72
127k
1.24
130k
1.30
135k
100%
2012E recurrent EPS is LKR 0.67 and should grow by c.7% in 2013E to LKR 0.72 (CAGR of 33% over 2012-15E) CAL expects c.70% of revenue to come from apartment sales in 2013 and 2014 2015E total revenue should be flat YoY, as OSEAs revenue mix shifts from a dependency on apartment sales to a steadier rental income base
847k
2015E
based on conservative apartment sales (64% of phase II and III units sold by 2015E)
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Apartments Sold (LHS) % of Total Apartments Sold (Phase II & III)
Source: Company Reports and CAL Estimates
50% of Phase II apartments are already sold. CAL expects 64% of total apartments being constructed in Phase II and III (c.498) to be sold by 2015
Higher margins are also likely if mismatches arise between sales and completion of construction
LKR (Thsd) 2,500 2,256 2,000 43% 40% 1,500 37% 29% 1,000 737 555 500 19% 10% 23% 923 931 28% 20% 1,235 30% 54% 50% 1,836 60%
CAL has assumed conservative cost assumptions due to upcoming sales of apartments. However, higher GP margins may be likely if mismatches arise between when an apartment is constructed and sold (e.g. 2010 and 2012E)
2009 2010 2011 Gross Profit 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E GP Margin
0%
Havelock City commercial and retail space to provide stability post 2015
LKR (Thsd) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 2011 Rental Income (LHS) 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Occupancy at WTC Combined Occupancy at HC 847 44% 1,196 89% 90% 95% 1,768 98% 2,084 70% 50% 30% 10% -10% 98% 3,440 150% 130% 110% 90%
Rental income should start growing starting 2015 as HCs commercial and retail space comes into the market (44% estimated combined occupancy by end-2015)
CAL has assumed a conservative c.40% in direct costs, resulting in a yield of 2.8% in 2012E at current market values, due to the lack of debt Post-2014, CAL expects a significant uplift in yields due to HCs commercial and retail space
16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.7% FY2011 1.4% 2.4% FY2012E 3.5% FY2013E 4.1% 1.3% 1.2% 6.4% 1.8% 11.2% 2.9%
At current market values, OSEAs 2011 sustainable NOI is c.LKR 712mn. Assuming OSEA maintains an interest coverage ratio of 1.5x going forward, yields can top 5% in 2013E (operating costs maintained at 40% of pro forma rent)
FY2014E
FY2015E
FY2016E
10
CAL expects lost interest in OSEA to fade away once visibility of its HC development project increases Wider interest should commence during 2H2013 as a result of recognizing sales of apartments which occurred during 2012
8/16/2012 OSEA
12/16/2012
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III.
APPENDICES
APPENDIX 1 Reversionary Rental Yield Scenario Analysis (1.5x interest coverage ratio)
Rental Revenue in 2013E LKR (thsd) 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1,591,100 5.7% 5.0% 4.3% 3.6% 2.9% 1,679,495 1,767,889 6.0% 6.3% 5.3% 5.6% 4.5% 4.8% 3.8% 4.0% 3.0% 3.2% 1,856,284 6.7% 5.8% 5.0% 4.2% 3.3% 1,949,098 7.0% 6.1% 5.2% 4.4% 3.5%
CAL has maintained direct costs at c.40%; however, continuous reduction in costs can improve yields to +6% in 2013E
2011
847,121 1,587,516 56,627 2,491,264 (1,568,368) 922,896 2,122,860 (236,102) (73,946) (109,290) 105,782 2,732,200 (25,257) 2,706,943 (60,018) 2,646,924 3.14 0.62
2012E
1,196,316 487,143 48,568 1,732,027 (800,614) 931,413 528,000 (173,203) (53,878) (422,436) 389,829 1,199,726 (10,363) 1,189,362 (92,770) 1,096,592 1.30 0.67
2013E
1,767,889 4,682,477 126,990 6,577,356 (5,342,519) 1,234,837 731,035 (394,641) (65,774) (141,416) 86,111 1,450,152 (14,420) 1,435,732 (100,501) 1,335,231 1.58 0.72
2014E
2,084,248 5,728,031 130,113 7,942,392 (6,106,171) 1,836,222 1,288,632 (555,967) (119,136) (279,646) 336,659 2,506,762 (12,534) 2,494,229 (162,125) 2,332,104 2.76 1.24
2015E
3,439,932 4,424,443 134,904 7,999,279 (5,743,749) 2,255,530 1,492,470 (479,957) (79,993) (296,732) (104,671) 2,786,647 (21,905) 2,764,742 (179,708) 2,585,034 3.06 1.30
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2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
Current Liabilities Trade and Other Payables Rental and Customer Deposits Amounts due to Related Parties Interest Bearing Loans and Borrowings Non-interest Bearing Loans Income Tax Payable Dividends Payable TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 615,262 1,088,412 9,442 2,635,530 844 10,335 2,380 25,211,088 1,116,905 991,504 9,442 2,635,530 10,335 164,489 29,534,760 2,122,948 2,697,210 9,442 2,780,004 10,335 200,285 36,399,958 2,375,139 3,244,424 9,442 5,564,604 10,335 349,816 42,593,143 2,646,108 3,791,089 9,442 5,926,329 10,335 646,259 49,083,826
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2011
2,732,200
2012E
1,199,726
2013E
1,450,152
2014E
2,506,762
10,871 2,587 5,508 4,767 39,815 109,290 (105,782) (3,508) (2,122,860) 672,888 27,668 (270,187) 614,566 813,644 (200,266) 97 1,658,410 (13,504) (109,290) (2,272) 1,533,345
9,967 4,740 5,344 337,243 422,436 (389,829) (528,000) 1,061,627 (58,589) (96,908) (1,024,029) 501,643 383,744 (10,363) (422,436) (2,547) (51,602)
10,792 4,740 5,990 136,500 141,416 (86,111) (731,035) 932,445 (8,664,252) 1,705,706 (1,201,927) 1,006,043 (6,221,985) (14,420) (141,416) (2,855) (6,380,676)
11,700 4,740 6,715 275,730 279,646 (336,659) (1,288,632) 1,460,004 5,245,574 547,214 (5,487,646) 252,190 2,017,337 (12,534) (279,646) (3,200) 1,721,957
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DISCLAIMER
This document has been prepared and issued on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources, believed to be reliable. Capital Alliance Securities (Private) Limited however does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates given constitute a judgment as of the date of the material and are subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The recipient of this report must make their own independent decision regarding any securities, investments or financial instruments mentioned herein. Securities or financial instruments mentioned may not be suitable to all investors. Capital Alliance Securities (Private) Limited its directors, officers, consultants, employees, outsourced research providers associates or business partner, will not be responsible, for any claims damages, compensation, suits, damages, loss, costs, charges, expenses, outgoing or payments including attorneys fees which recipients of the reports suffers or incurs directly or indirectly arising out actions taken as a result of this report. This report is for the use of the intended recipient only. Access, disclosure, copying, distribution or reliance on any of it by anyone else is prohibited and may be a criminal offence.
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Contacts
Research Team
Tel No: +94 11 231 7777 (General) Email: [email protected]
Purasisi Jinadasa Tel No: +94 11 231 7786 Email: [email protected] Udeeshan Jonas Tel No: +94 11 231 7746 Email: [email protected] Reshan Wediwardana Email: [email protected] Irandi Panditha Email: [email protected] Dushan De Silva Email: [email protected]
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