Autonomy Pitchbook
Autonomy Pitchbook
Autonomy Pitchbook
DRAFT
Preliminary | Subject to Further Review and Evaluation
January 2011
Autonomy Overview
Summary
Dual Headquarters Founding San Francisco, CA Cambridge, U.K. Founded in June 1996 by world-leading researchers from University of Cambridge
($MM, except per share amounts) Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2008A Revenue Annual Growth Gross Profit Gross Margin EBITDA EBITDA Margin Free Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Margin Net Income Net Income Margin Diluted EPS Annual Growth $503 47% 458 91% 226 45% 121 24% 148 29% 0.68 81% 2009A $740 47% 652 88% 360 49% 191 26% 233 31% 0.97 43% 2010E $866 17% 764 88% 426 49% 281 32% 289 33% 1.09 12% 2011E $963 11% 856 89% 505 52% 322 33% 343 36% 1.27 17% 2012E $1,079 12% 969 90% 585 54% 487 45% 399 37% 1.48 16%
Financial Performance
IPO
Employees Customers/OEMs Geographic Mix Key Verticals
Source: Projections based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch research as of October 19, 2010. Note: Free Cash Flow defined as Operating Cash Flow less Cap Ex and Investment in Product Development. Gross Profit adjusted for amortization of acq related intangibles. EBITDA adjusted for amortization of acq related intangibles, SBC, foreign exchange, and non-recurring items.
Trading Overview
($MM, except per share amounts) Share Price Fully-Diluted Equity Value (1) Plus: Debt (1) Less: Cash (1) Fully-Diluted Enterprise Value (1) CY10E Revenue EBITDA Earnings per Share CY11E Revenue EBITDA Earnings per Share 14.78 / $23.66 $5,811 945 1,028 $5,728 6.6x 13.4 21.7 5.9x 11.3 18.6
Note: Current market prices as of January 24, 2011, converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60. (1) Net Debt based on Autonomy Form 6-K for the period ended September 30, 2010. Includes 500 ($800) convertible debt with strike price of 20.63 ($33.03). (2) Projections based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch research as of October 19, 2010.
$503
Services, $41
Deferred Revenue, $250 5% 29% 29% IDOL Product, $249
100%
80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
91%
89%
91% 45%
88% 49%
29% 15%
34%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Company filings. Note: OEM Ongoing refers to sales of OEMs products. OEM Dev refers to a non-refundable, upfront development license fee.
Promote: Marketing
(~20% of 2009 Revenue) U.S. behaviorally targeted online advertising spending(2) $MM
$5,000 $4,000 $4,400
While enterprises only create 20% of all data, Data needing protection in 2020 is the they need to manage transmission, storage, size of the entire digital universe in 2018 security and compliance for more than 85% of it EB (Exabytes)
$2,700
Overlap ~600 EB
2010: ~1,200 EB
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Company filings, IDC, Industry research. Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates. Source: eMarketer. Refers to advertising displayed to a select audience whose interest or intentions are revealed by website or ISP tracking data, audience segmentation and/or predictive analysis; excludes ads targeted using adware.
Promote: Marketing
Rich media and content explosion Shift from cost per thousand impressions (CPM) to cost per action (CPA) advertising model Need to demonstrate ROI Multichannel Customer Mgmt Social Media Analysis Rich Media Management eCommerce Solutions Web Content Optimization
Drivers
Applications
Real-time Policy Management Early Case Assessment E-mail and Audio Archiving Advanced eDiscovery Retention and Disposition
Growth
~100 customers standardized on IDOL Establishing pipes in core IT platforms builds defensibility 10-15% growth (of which OEMs growing at 20% plus YoY)
Early signs of second phase adoption Growth constant through recession and upturn 15-20% growth
Commercial Leadership
IDOL solution universally recognized OEM reaches 95% of customers in market (~5% product penetration suggests significant growth opportunity)
Market leading solution Largest, most visible eDiscovery cases 87% of the Fortune 100 10 of the top 10 global banks 10 of the top 10 law firms Major government agencies
Produces tangible results Delta Air Lines sales: +$30MM LexisNexis e-mail clickthroughs: +103% Amnesty Intl donation clickthroughs:+157% Lenovo orders: +400 per week
Standard Product
IDOL OEMs
400+ OEMs (~5 year deals) Royalty-based ~3% (no deferred revenue, 100% gross margin) 10-14 signed per quarter 35% year-on-year revenue growth Paid monthly and typically 3-year contracts Collected in arrears (no deferred revenue) The worlds largest private legally compliant cloud at over 17 Petabytes of data Mixture of traditional license and hosted revenues Timing of revenues varies per contract Some deferred revenues
$50
$2
Policy Management
$5
$2
$40 $5
$2
Website
IDOL Cloud
Call Center
$30 $15
Enterprise Search
$51 $20
Hybrid Model
Legal Hold
Appliance
New model focused on quick time to value, high return Archiving (Arcpliance) Email (DSmail) eDiscovery
$10
$20
eDiscovery
$0
Competitive Positioning
Data Management Leader
AUTONOMY LEADS THE DATA MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY WITH MEANING BASED COMPUTING Network Effects Technology and vendor agnostic nature of IDOL leads to increasing adoption by OEM vendors
Autonomy
Technology
Standardization
Over $135m in R&D spend in last 12 months; 170 patents; 100% of technology is owned
Connects to over 400 content repositories and over 1,000 file formats (one new connection within IDOL can replace 9,000 new connections between entities) Over 20,000 customers and 400 partners Successful track record in integrating and expanding IDOL technology across customers and use cases
Ability to Execute
Alterian
Microsoft
Clickability
Strength of Strategy
Completeness of Vision
Acquisitions
Acquisition Strategy Since 2003, Autonomy has successfully acquired 11 businesses with ~$600mm in cumulative LTM revenue Autonomys strategy has been to focus on specific markets in which IDOL can be substituted as the foundation for existing technologies and leveraged across customer environments This has provided Autonomy rapid cost savings and the addition of installed base and channel has created significant cross-sell / up-sell opportunities associated with additional functionality
Sources: Company filings, press releases, 451 Group and Wall Street Research.
Infrastructure Software
SaaS
$11,359
$7,940
$7,317
RHT
$7,251
TDC
$5,728
Autonomy
$4,502
INFA
$4,312
Software AG
$4,001
TIBX
$2,648
OTEX
$2,454
CNQR
$2,180
SFSF
$1,886
QLIK
$1,743
PRGS
BMC
$4,163
$963
$840
TIBX
$740
INFA
$564
PRGS
$369
CNQR
$268
QLIK
$254
SFSF
ADBE
VMW
BMC
TDC
CTXS
CRM
Software AG
OTEX
RHT
Autonomy
App. Infra. Median = 17% Infra. Software Median = 15% SaaS Median = 40%
27%
25%
0% 60% 45% 30%
SFSF Autonomy VMW CRM QLIK CNQR RHT
20%
19%
INFA
17%
OTEX
15%
CTXS
14%
ADBE
11%
TIBX
6%
BMC
6%
TDC
5%
PRGS
Software AG
52%
46%
42%
33%
32%
32%
30%
30%
30%
28%
28%
27%
26%
App. Infra. Median = 28% Infra. Software Median = 33% SaaS Median = 19% 19% 18%
5%
15%
0% 12.0x
Autonomy BMC ADBE VMW PRGS CTXS OTEX RHT CNQR Software AG TIBX INFA TDC CRM QLIK
SFSF
EV / Revenue (CY11E)
11.1x
8.6x
8.6x
7.4x
7.0x
6.7x
6.1x
5.9x
5.5x
4.8x
App. Infra. Median = 3.5x Infra. Software Median = 5.5x SaaS Median = 8.6x
4.1x
3.8x
3.5x
3.1x
2.7x
2.6x
CRM
Sources: Note:
SFSF
RHT
QLIK
CNQR
INFA
Autonomy
CTXS
TIBX
ADBE
BMC
TDC
PRGS
Software AG
OTEX
10
Capital IQ, company filings, press releases and Wall Street research. Excludes stock-based compensation. Autonomy figures based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch research as of October 19, 2010. Current prices as of January 24, 2011. 5-Year CAGRs based on CY2005 to CY2010. Revenue growth rate for Qlik Technologies are based on CY2008 to CY2009. Negative earnings noted as NM.
38%
27% 21% 19%
8%
QLIK
8% NM
CTXS SFSF
VMW
Autonomy
CRM
OTEX
Software AG
CNQR
TIBX
BMC
INFA
TDC
RHT
PRGS
52%
29% 28% 25% 23%
App. Infra. Median = 16% Infra. Software Median = 15% SaaS Median = 28% 19% 18% 18% 17% 16% 15%
15%
0% 100.0x
QLIK CRM SFSF CNQR VMW RHT INFA OTEX Autonomy TIBX
15%
14%
13%
12%
12%
PRGS
BMC
Software AG
TDC
CTXS
ADBE
263.6x
87.9x
58.5x 54.2x 48.9x 47.1x 32.8x
P/E (CY11E)
75.0x 50.0x
App. Infra. Median = 22.5x Infra. Software Median = 28.5x SaaS Median = 87.9x 28.5x 24.2x 22.5x 18.6x
Autonomy
25.0x
0.0x 4.0x
SFSF CRM QLIK CNQR VMW RHT INFA CTXS
16.6x
PRGS
15.5x
BMC
14.8x
ADBE
13.7x
Software AG
11.4x
OTEX
TIBX
TDC
9.6x
3.0x
P/E/G (CY11E)
3.0x 2.0x 1.0x 0.0x 50.0x 40.0x 30.0x 20.0x 10.0x 0.0x
SFSF CRM
2.5x
2.4x
2.2x
2.2x
1.8x
1.8x
1.5x
App. Infra. Median = 1.1x Infra. Software Median = 2.2x SaaS Median = 3.0x
1.2x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.0x
0.6x
OTEX
RHT
CTXS
CNQR
VMW
INFA
TDC
TIBX
ADBE
QLIK
PRGS
Autonomy
BMC
Software AG
159.9x
45.7x
EV / EBITDA (CY11E)
38.7x
App. Infra. Median = 13.2x Infra. Software Median = 17.2x SaaS Median = 45.7x 9.6x
PRGS
9.5x
Software AG
8.7x
OTEX
8.3x
BMC
SFSF
CRM
Sources: Note:
QLIK
VMW
RHT
INFA
CNQR
CTXS
TIBX
TDC
Autonomy
11
Capital IQ, company filings, press releases and Wall Street research. Excludes stock-based compensation. Autonomy figures based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch research as of October 19, 2010. Current prices as of January 24, 2011. 5-Year CAGRs based on CY2005 to CY2010. EPS growth rate for Qlik Technologies are based on CY2008 to CY2009. Negative earnings noted as NM.
Role
Founder, CEO CFO CEO U.S. Chief Research Officer COO
Education
Ph.D. in Mathematical Computing, M.A. in Electrical and Information Sciences, University of Cambridge B.A. in Economics, University of Cambridge; Chartered Accountant B.A. in Economics, Trinity College D.Phil., Oxford University; B.A. (Hons) and M.Sc., York University J.D., USC Law Center; B.A., Johns Hopkins; Kansai Uni. of Foreign Studies, Osaka, Japan B.S. in Electrical Engineering, Stanford University Physiology, Henley Management College; Business Administration, Filton College LLB., Exeter University
Andrew Kanter
2000
2004 2000
CTO Head of Global Operations NonExecutive Chairman Founder, Board Member Board Director Board Director Board Director
Robert Webb
2009
Richard Gaunt
Board of Directors
1996
BSc. and MSc. in Electronic Engineering, University of Natal BSc. Physics, Imperial College
1998 2010
2010
12
Role
Independent Advisor Independent Advisor
Education
B.S. in Management, Golden Gate University
Richard Perle
2000
M.A. in Politics, Princeton University; LSE with Honors Examinations; B.A.. in International Relations, University of Southern California B.A. in English, Santa Clara University
Independent Advisors
Anthony Bettencourt
2005
Independent Advisor
2005
Independent Advisor
University Lecturer in Signal Processing, University of Cambridge; Director of Studies in Information Engineering, Trinity College, Cambridge; Group Leader, Marconi Space and Defense Systems
Professor of Applied Statistics and Signal Processing in the Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge Emeritus Professor, University of Cambridge; Emeritus Fellow of Christ's College, University of Cambridge, Head of the Signal Processing and Communications Research Group at University of Cambridge
B.Sc., MSc., and Ph.D. in Physics, University of Birmingham Ph. D., Aston University; M.A., University of Cambridge
13
Disclaimer
These materials have been prepared by Qatalyst Partners LP (including any affiliates Qatalyst) for the Qatalyst client or potential client to whom such materials are directly addressed and delivered (the Company) in connection with an actual or potential mandate or engagement and may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement with Qatalyst. These materials are based on information provided by or on behalf of the Company and/or other potential transaction participants, from public sources or otherwise reviewed by Qatalyst. Qatalyst assumes no responsibility for independent investigation or verification of such information and has relied on such information being complete and accurate in all respects. To the extent such information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial performance (including estimates of potential cost savings and synergies) prepared by or reviewed with the managements of the Company and/or other potential transaction participants or obtained from public sources, Qatalyst has assumed that such estimates and forecasts have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of such managements (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a representation, whether as to the past, the present or the future. These materials were designed for use by specific persons familiar with the business and affairs of the Company and are being furnished and should be considered only in connection with other information, oral or written, being provided by Qatalyst in connection herewith. These materials are not intended to provide the sole basis for evaluating, and should not be considered a recommendation with respect to, any transaction or other matter. Prior to entering into any transaction the Company should determine, without reliance on Qatalyst, the economic risks and merits as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction. In this regard, by accepting this presentation, the Company acknowledges that (a) Qatalyst is not in the business of providing (and the Company is not relying on Qatalyst for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) the Company should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) the Company should apprise senior management as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any transaction) and Qatalysts disclaimer as to these matters. Qatalyst does not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any statements contained herein as to tax matters were neither written nor intended by Qatalyst to be used and cannot be used by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties that may be imposed on such taxpayer. Any discussion of tax matters in these materials may have been written in connection with the promotion or marketing of any transaction contemplated hereby. Accordingly, any taxpayer should seek advice based on such taxpayers particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor. These materials do not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or purchase any securities and are not a commitment by Qatalyst to provide or arrange any financing for any transaction or to purchase any security in connection therewith. Qatalyst is not acting in any other capacity as a fiduciary to the Company. Qatalyst assumes no obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials. These materials have not been prepared with a view toward public disclosure under state or federal securities laws or otherwise, are intended for the benefit and use of the Company, and may not be reproduced, disseminated, quoted, summarized or referred to, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Qatalyst. These materials may not reflect information known to other professionals in other business areas of Qatalyst. Qatalyst is a full service securities firm providing investment banking and other services and products to a wide range of corporations and individuals, domestically and offshore, from which conflicting interests or duties may arise. In the ordinary course of these activities, Qatalyst may at any time hold long or short positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for their own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity securities or loans of the Company, potential counterparties, or any other company that may be involved in a transaction. Qatalyst is required to obtain, verify and record certain information that identifies each entity that enters into a formal business relationship with it, which information includes the complete name and address and taxpayer ID number. Qatalyst may also request corporate formation documents, or other forms of identification, to verify information provided.
20.00 $32.01
15,000
10.00 $16.01
0.00 Jan-06
0 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
Source: Capital IQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
18.00 $28.81
15,000
16.00 $25.61
Nov 24, 2010: Announced ongoing work on a potential acquisition. Feb 10, 2010: Announced the offering of 500 ($800MM) worth of 3.25% convertible bonds due 2015, convertible at strike price of 20.63 ($33.03). Stock price reaction: (6%) Stock price reaction: (6%)
10,000
14.00 $22.41
Oct 19, 2010: Announced Q3 2010 results and reaffirms FY11 guidance. Stock price reaction: +5%
5,000
12.00 Jan-10
0 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11
Source: Capital IQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
47.6
40
30
25.1
20
10
0.0
20.00
20.00 $32.01 20.50 $32.81 0.0 0% 0% 322.9 100% 1.5x 0 0% 268 100%
13.00
13.00 $20.81 13.50 $21.61 10.4 3% 5% 16.8 5% 0.1x 7 3% 9 3%
13.50
13.50 $21.61 14.00 $22.41 14.5 4% 7% 31.3 10% 0.1x 11 4% 20 7%
14.00
14.00 $22.41 14.50 $23.21 30.2 9% 14% 61.5 19% 0.3x 18 7% 38 14%
14.50
15.00
15.50
16.00
16.50
17.00
17.50
18.00
18.00 $28.81 18.50 $29.61 34.0 11% 15% 299.7 93% 1.4x 37 14% 236 88%
18.50
18.50 $29.61 19.00 $30.41 12.9 4% 6% 312.7 97% 1.4x 18 7% 254 95%
19.00
19.00 $30.41 19.50 $31.21 6.9 2% 3% 319.6 99% 1.5x 10 4% 264 99%
Min Range: 12.00 $19.21 Max Range: 12.50 $20.01 Volume (MM) % of Total % of Implied Float (1) Cumulative Volume % Volume At Or Below Range Volume / Implied Float (1) Days % of Total Days Cumulative Days % Days At Or Below Range 0.0 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0.0x 0 0% 0 0%
Trading Statistics at Various Prices (Based on Closing Prices) 14.50 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50 17.00 17.50 $23.21 $24.01 $24.81 $25.61 $26.41 $27.21 $28.01 15.00 $24.01 26.1 8% 12% 87.6 27% 0.4x 22 8% 60 22% 15.50 $24.81 40.5 13% 18% 128.1 40% 0.6x 30 11% 90 34% 16.00 $25.61 47.6 15% 22% 175.7 54% 0.8x 35 13% 125 47% 16.50 $26.41 27.0 8% 12% 202.6 63% 0.9x 17 6% 142 53% 17.00 $27.21 20.3 6% 9% 222.9 69% 1.0x 16 6% 158 59% 17.50 $28.01 17.7 5% 8% 240.6 75% 1.1x 17 6% 175 65% 18.00 $28.81 25.1 8% 11% 265.7 82% 1.2x 24 9% 199 74%
Source: CapitalIQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60. (1) Assumes 220MM free float shares based on Capital IQ.
10.0x
9.0x
8.0x
75th Perc = 7.6x
7.0x
6.0x
5.0x
4.0x
3.0x Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
50.0x
40.0x
75th Perc = 36.7x
30.0x
Mean = 28.2x
20.0x
10.0x
0.0x Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Total Increase / (Decrease) by Quarter (115) (244) (6,833) 2,584 (143) (1,207)
Source: Capital IQ, UK Share Register as of 11/1/2010. (1) Includes holdings for Michael Lynch of 19,799 (8.2% of CSO) and Richard Gaunt of 2,373 (1.0% of CSO). (2) Based on 242MM shares outstanding.
108.1x 87.9x 66.5 54.2 483.3 263.6 39.3 31.6 87.3x 71.0x 174.3x 109.3x 11.9x 13.9 20.6 17.3 13.1 9.9 18.5 19.0 18.8 9.7 15.6x 15.3x 11.1x 12.2 17.5 15.2 12.2 8.9 15.5 16.4 16.0 9.2 13.7x 13.4x
$250,678 $217,170 205,572 200,847 203,307 189,656 168,601 162,079 121,405 97,902 109,235 120,937 65,961 67,625 56,399 49,210 35,887 32,085 27,032 19,163
$44,173 11,651 13,651 23,995 38,781 10,934 4,730 7,891 4,204 13,863
Source: CapitalIQ; based on consensus estimates. Cash balances pro forma for acquisitions. (1) USD Stock Price of $23.66. Autonomy figures converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
/ / / / /
Note: Current market prices as of January 24, 2011, converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60. (1) Shares outstanding based on Autonomy Form 6-K for the period ended September 30, 2010 and options outstanding based on Autonomy Annual Report for the period ended December 31, 2009. (2) Net Debt based on Autonomy Form 6-K for the period ended September 30, 2010. Includes 500 ($800) convertible debt with strike price of 20.63 ($33.03). (3) Projections based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch research as of October 19, 2010.