AARMS

SECURITY

Vol. 9, No. 2 (2010) 315326

A nuclear Iran: Fears and prospects

PETER SELJAN
Mikls Zrnyi National Defence University, Budapest, Hungary

This article is an attempt to clear up some basic questions around the Iranian nuclear
crisis, which is one of the most polarizing issues in one of the worlds most volatile
regions. The United States and its allies believe Iran is planning to build nuclear
weapons, although Irans leadership says that its nuclear program is peaceful. While
the west were working on sanctions against Iran, the United States was asking Israel to
hold off on any military strike against Irans nuclear facilities. At the same time, the
Islamic Republics true intention remains unclear, and unfortunately, time would
appear to be on Irans side. Its not surprising that some think there are no good
options for dealing with this challenge.
Since 2006, the United Nations Security Council has repeatedly called on Iran to halt its
uranium enrichmenti since Washington and its allies say that Tehran is seeking the ability
to make nuclear weapons, a charge it strongly denies. The common knowledge is that a
nuclear-armed Iran would usher in a dangerous new era of instability in the Gulf and
Middle East, furthermore it would spark a nuclear arms race in the region, leading to the
collapse of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime. Recently Tehran rejected an offer
to have its uranium enriched by other nations for use in a medical research reactor a
proposal that would have provided some breathing space for diplomacy. Then in early
March, the regime accelerated its efforts to enrich uranium to a higher level, taking it one
step closer to the bomb (BROAD, 2010).ii Many experts believe Iran could develop a
nuclear weapon by the middle of next year, and a nuclear-armed missile in five years or
less, which makes the situation more complicated (BERMAN, 2010).

i
Uranium enrichment is the process of increasing the concentration of radioactive U-235 isotopes from the
average 0.7% found in uranium in nature either to 3.55% to make fuel for reactors or to above 90% for
nuclear weapons.
ii
On February 7, 2010, Iran announced it would begin enriching its stockpiled uranium to 20 percent. In this
regard we should bear in mind that the enrichment process is nonlinear, it accelerates as it moves ahead.
Uranium ore has about 140 atoms of the heavy isotope for every light one, and separating the two takes a lot
of spinning. By the time the enrichment process has reached 4 percent, it has successfully removed some 115
of the heavy atoms. To get from there to 20 percent the spinning centrifuges need remove only 20 more of the
heavy atoms. And from there it is even easier to jump to 90 percent, bomb grade, by removing four or so
additional heavy atoms. That is what worries many countries.

Received: September 2, 2010

Address for correspondence:
PETER SELJAN
E-mail: [email protected]

P. SELJAN: A nuclear Iran: Fears and prospects

The United States has been leading a push for the United Nations Security Council
to impose tough sanctions on Iran, though that effort appeared to be stalled by Russia
and China for a while.iii Since Iran has been refusing to comply with the demands for
cooperation and transparency, leaving less and less room for diplomatic maneuvering,
Russia seems ready to consider supporting sanctions tailored to prevent the spread of
nuclear weapons, and China has finally agreed to engage substantively on the issue
(BARRY, 2010).
What Iran wants?
It is not difficult to understand Irans motives for seeking a nuclear-weapons capability.
Although Iraqi missile and chemical-weapons attacks were certainly a motivating factor
behind the resumption of the enrichment program in the 1980s, Iran today seeks a
nuclear-weapons capability not so much for deterrence as for the prestige that
possession of such advanced technologies bestows. Irans regional leadership
aspirations are another driver: possession of a nuclear-weapons capability is seen as
conferring the major-power status that Iran seeks. The deterrence factor too cannot be
denied. Irans motivation is understandable. However Iranian officials insist that their
country does not seek nuclear weapons. They may be making a distinction between
developing a weapons capability and taking the final step of building weapons
considering that possession of nuclear weapons would undermine Irans security by
making it sure target for US and Israeli attack and worldwide economic boycott, with
loss of the protection offered by Russia and China. Viewed from outside Iranian
intentions are unclear. In any case, Irans leaders do not yet need to make a decision
about whether to produce nuclear weapons. They can wait until after the fissile material
is produced to decide if and when to develop a weapon. What Iran has certainly decided
is to acquire the technical capability to produce fissile material. Its goal is to bring the
country tight up to the threshold of a break-out capability while remaining within the
legal limits of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Meanwhile, if its uraniumenrichment program continues unabated, Iran will be in a better position to produce a
bomb quickly if it so decides (FITZPATRICK, 2008).
Iran seems determined to continue its uranium enrichment. Since talks on the issue
began in 2003, Iran has never given any serious indication that it would be willing to
give up the aim of acquiring such technology, whatever inducements or disincentives
iii
Russia and China seek to maintain friendly relations with Iran, primarily motivated in Russias case by
geostrategic considerations and in Chinas by its need for Iranian oil and gas. Yet both states worry about the
prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, and so, however reluctantly, they joined the sanctions strategy.

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the West might put forward. Since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a surprise victory over
Rafsanjani in the presidential election in 2005, Iranian officials have insisted that
suspension is non-negotiable because enrichment is the national will, which cannot be
changed. The question for the international community is whether even a fully
compliant, fully transparent Iran could be trusted with enrichment. Given the apparent
military purpose of its program, there is reason to fear that Iran might break out of the
NPT and use a stockpile of low enriched uranium (LEU) to quickly produce highly
enriched uranium (HEU) for weapons purposes. This concern is not diminished by the
fact that the IAEA has never found any evidence of diversion (FITZPATRICK, 2008).
Gareth Evans, the president of the International Crisis Group has said that if Irans
neighbors, including Israel, and the wider world could be confident that the line
between civilian and military capability that lies at the heart of the NPT hold in Irans
case, it would not matter whether the country was capable of producing its own nuclear
fuel (EVANS, 2007). The issue is how to build that confidence, and whether it can be
built at all while Iran continues enrichment activity. The problem is that the line is
almost invisible. It will be impossible to judge for certain if and when Iran has crossed
the nuclear threshold. The common wisdom in the West is that Iranian possession of
nuclear weapons will not be known until after the fact (FITZPATRICK, 2008).
Irans ballistic-missile program magnifies the threat. With technological help from
North Korea, Iran fields a Shahab-3iv missile that can reach Israel, Turkey and Saudi
Arabia. It is a single-stage, liquid-fueled medium-range ballistic missile with a range of
close to 1,300 kilometers (km). In December 2009, Iran test-launched the latest version
of its longest-range missile called Sejil-2,v which is also capable of hitting Israel and
parts of Europe. The Sejils range is longer than that of the Shahab-3, at an estimated
2,000 km. In addition, its solid propellant has a number of advantages over the Shahabs
liquid fuel. Solid-fuel rockets accelerate faster making them perhaps less prone to
being shot down in their vulnerable boost phase by defensive systems. Unlike the
Shahab series and most other Iranian missiles, the Sejil bears no outward resemblance
to foreign missile types. It might thus represent the rise of an indigenous production
capability, in tandem with Irans more traditional development process, which has
relied on foreign technical aid (GRIER, 2009).

iv
Shahab means meteor or shooting star, in Farsi. A series of Iranian missile variants carry the Shahab
designation.
v
Sejil, or Sajjil, means baked clay, in Farsi.

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Iran and the possibility of nuclear terrorism

The United States has faced the threat of nuclear terrorism for many years, but this peril
looms larger day by day. In February the directors of C.I.A., F.B.I., and National
Intelligence told Senator Dianne Feinstein that an attempted terrorist attack on the
United States in the next few years was a certainty (GREENWAY, 2010). Nuclear
terrorism experts generally agree that nuclear terror acts with the highest consequences
are the least likely to occur because they are the most difficult to accomplish.
Conversely, those acts with the least damaging consequences are the most likely to take
place because they are the easiest to carry out (FERGUSON, 2005). In this respect, the
ease with which terrorists could build and detonate radiological dispersal devices the
so called dirty bombs or use radioactive material for other harmful purposes makes
this kind of nuclear terrorist attack especially concerning.
To fabricate a dirty bomb, terrorists must acquire sufficient fissile or radioactive
material, through gift, purchase, theft, or diversion. The most direct means for this
would be to obtain it directly from a sympathetic government. Such a combination of
rogue state and mass-casualty terrorists is a worst-case scenario that has shaped U.S.
foreign policy toward such states and fueled public fears of nuclear terrorism. Today ,
the greatest sources of concern in this regard are Pakistan, North Korea and especially
Iran, which has been one of the worlds most active sponsors since the Islamic
Revolution in 1979. Iran has backed not only groups in its Persian Gulf neighborhood,
but also terrorists and radicals in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Bosnia, the
Philippines, and elsewhere. Iran has worked with Islamists such as Hamas, the Palestine
Islamic Jihad, Kurdish Hezbollah as well as radical secular groups like the PFLP-GC
and the Kurdish Workers Party (BYMAN, 2008).
While there is no evidence that states have deliberately transferred radioactive
materials to terrorists groups, all state sponsors of terrorism, as designated by the U.S.
State Department,vi possess high-risk radioactive sources. But it is worth noting that a
state that provided radioactive material to terrorists would have to be extraordinarily
reckless, given the risk that the material could be traced back to the state. Because the
United States would most likely retaliate against a state that had provided radioactive
materials to terrorists, states will likely be deterred from doing so (FERGUSON, 2005).
Irans acquisition of nuclear arms and weapons-usable uranium, however, is particularly
threatening because of the Iranian governments links to terrorist organizations.
Understandably, for most Americans, a nuclear weapon in the hands of a terroristvi
Currently there are four countries on the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism: Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria.
<http://www.state.gov/s/ct/c14151.htm > accessed on July 14, 2010.

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supporting enemy regime is the ultimate nightmare. Although, to date, there is no

indication that the Iranian government has shared fissile materials or any kind of WMD
with terrorist organizations, and Tehran is likely to continue this restraint and not
transfer radioactive materials or nuclear weapons for several reasons (BYMAN, 2008).vii
Nonetheless, the possibility remains that it might do so in the future.viii
Sanctions, containment and deterrence
Whether additional sanctions are adopted by the Security Council, or, more likely, by
concerned states acting outside the UN, it is doubtful that new coercive measures alone
would be effective in terms of changing Iranian policy before the enrichment program
advances to the point of giving Iran a latent weapons capability. It is worth noting, that
Iran has demonstrated the ability to expand its enrichment program despite several years
of export controls and intelligence scrutiny, which can be seen as an indication of the
limits of such external controls. However sanctions can play an important deterrent role.
Denying Iran the policy benefits of its nuclear status by making it to pay a price for
defying the Security Council sends an important signal to others who might wish follow
the same route. This should be seen as part of a multifaceted strategy for preventing a
proliferation cascade in the Middle East. In the event that Iran does acquire a nuclearweapons capability, containment and deterrence strategies will be critical to keeping
Iran from crossing the line to production. Many Israelis claim that the Iranian regime is
different, that, like a suicide bomber, it will be undeterrable. The historical record,
however, suggests that when its national security is at stake, Iran behaves in a broadly
rational manner (FITZPATRICK, 2008).
Containment has been the US policy of choice on Iran since 1979. In its broad
sense, the containment strategy today involves isolation and other means of denying
Iran the ability to use a nuclear status to achieve the goals it seeks of Gulf hegemony
and heightened prestige and status for the Islamic regime at home and abroad. However
a containment strategy based on isolation and deterrence has its drawbacks.
Constraining investment in Irans oil and gas sectors will not be sustainable in the long
vii

As Daniel Byman, the director of Georgetown Universitys Center for Peace and Security Studies and an
expert on counterterrorism and Middle East security writes in his article Iran, Terrorism, and Weapons of
Mass Destruction that providing terrorists with such unconventional weapons offers Iran few tactical
advantages, moreover Iran has become more cautious in its backing of terrorists in recent years, and it is
highly aware that any major escalation in its support for terrorism would incur U.S. wrath and international
condemnation.
viii
Indeed, in an unusual twist on this theme, in early March 2004, Iran threatened to launch terrorists against
Libya because the latter was divulging details of Irans secret attempts to develop nuclear arms.

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term, given increasing global demand and competition for energy supplies.
Nevertheless, broad containment policies are easily can be found counterproductive,
because they could stimulate a regional arms race and a hardline response from Iran,
and could result the radicalisation of Iranian domestic policy.
Fallback proposals
A number of proposals have been made for reducing the risk of Iran crossing the
proliferation line. It is widely acknowledged that zero enrichment would be best, but
many observers believe that this has become an impossible goal. Working on the
assumption that Tehran will never accept zero enrichment and that continuing to
demand it is a losing game as the country continues to expand its enrichment
capabilities with insufficient safeguards, those who promote fallback proposals favour
granting legitimacy to enrichment in Iran in exchange for intrusive inspections. The
proponents of the fallback proposals argue that sticking to the policy of zero enrichment
is more likely to produce something close to the worst outcome an unconstrained,
under-safeguarded enrichment capability (WALSH, 2008).
Lack of confidence in Irans intentions is the central problem. As mentioned before,
there are compelling reasons to believe that the principal purpose of Irans enrichment
program is to create a nuclear-weapons capability. If this is the case, then no technical
solution will work, because Iran will not accept any condition that would prevent it
from attaining this objective (FITZPATRICK, 2008). However, it is sometimes argued that
offering a fallback position would at least test Irans intentions, and that, in the event
that Iran rejected technical solutions, the United States would be better placed to garner
international support for coercive action.
How the Iranian nuclear problem evolves will inevitably have repercussions
elsewhere. Tehrans program has already created the potential for a nuclearproliferation cascade in the surrounding region. Legitimisation of the Iranian program
could increase the security motivations of Irans neighbours for seeking such a program
themselves, and give them a reason to believe that the United States would eventually
accept their nuclear plans as well. Other than Iran and Israel, no country in the greater
Middle East region is known today to seek fuel-cycle capabilities. As long as Iran
remains under increasing pressure to stop its sensitive nuclear activities and is penalised
for failing to do so, its neighbours have a disincentive against seeking enrichment or
reprocessing capabilities of their own. Any fallback option that legitimised Irans
enrichment efforts would diminish that disincentive. Fallback options would confer
legitimacy on an enrichment program that the Security Council had officially

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delegitimised. Once conferred, this legitimacy would not be reversible, and even to
make the offer would be to acknowledge the right to enrichment. Taking this into
consideration, offering a fallback option that legitimises enrichment in Iran is not the
best way to reduce the proliferation risk (FITZPATRICK, 2008).
One of the worst-case scenarios: bombing Iran
Some experts maintain that the only viable fallback option is military action aimed at
disabling Irans sensitive nuclear facilities (PODHORETZ, 2008). However, an increasing
number of officials and analysts conclude that bombing Iran would both ineffective and
counter-productive, because air strikes would set back the enrichment program just for a
short period of time (IGNATIUS, 2008). Moreover, bombing Irans nuclear facilities
would probably do more spur than to delay the countrys acquisition of nuclear
weapons. Any gains that might be had from a bombing campaign would hardly be
worth the risk of unintended consequences. It would offer an excuse some Iranians
might sorely want to throw out the nuclear inspectors and renounce the NPT. That
would leave Iran in the position to manufacture fuel or bombs freely without inspectors.
In point of fact, an Israeli military strike might be the best thing for Irans leadership,
because it would bring Iranians together against a national enemy. The opposition
would be forced to support a government under attack from abroad. The regime would
foment and fund violence from Afghanistan to Iraq to the Gulf. The price of oil would
skyrocket which, ironically, would help Tehran pay for all these operations. Not to
say that Al Qaeda and its proxies would present the military strike as the third
American invasion of a Muslim nation in a decade, proof positive that the United States
is engaged in a war of civilizations (ZAKARIA, 2010 A).
Israel, which sees Iran as a direct threat, has refused to rule out military force,
although officials there say they are counting for now on diplomatic pressure. While the
West pushing for new UN sanctions Israels preparations for a strike against Irans
nuclear program are as evident as ever: the introduction of an attack drone capable of
flying hundreds of miles, the frequent open talk of a possible attack, the distribution of
new gas masks to the public. Its also not a coincidence that the American chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the director of the C.I.A., Obamas national security adviser
and vice president Joe Biden have all just been to Israel to pressing it to hold off and
help work out a sanctions regime rather than choose an unilateral military action
(BRONNER, 2010 A). The American decision to press Israel to hold its fire stems partly
from war game exercises in both countries that have raised complex questions about
how effective a strike would be, and how Iran would react (STROBEL, 2010).

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Many say this is the time to try to put tougher sanctions against Tehran into place,
because there is a common interest to make sanctions work. Israeli officials also agree
that the Iranian government and economy are weak and that harsh sanctions could
pressure it into changing its nuclear policy. But few believe an attack is imminent. Israel
is watching with enormous concern, because they do not want to be lured into what
could be an Iranian trap: a confrontation in Lebanon or Syria aimed at diverting the
worlds attention from Iran. We should bear in mind, that as a top Israeli official put it:
for the Americans, Iran is a strategic threat. For the Israelis, its an existential one
(BRONNER, 2010 B). Though it is also worth noting that some argue that Israel does not
seem truly serious about the Iranian threat (ZAKARIA, 2010 B).ix
Obviously, the most important factor holding the Israelis back is politics, and more
specifically, the importance that close relations with Washington has on the domestic
political calculations of Israeli leaders. But if the difference between the U.S. and Israel
becomes more significant in the coming year, it is possible that Israel will be ready to
take the risk and break ranks with Washington. This would be the worst-case scenario
with which many Israelis, including Netanyahu, are unlikely to be comfortable. In this
case the resulting breach between Israel and the United States would be unprecedented.
Washington occupies two countries in or adjacent to the region, maintains military
facilities throughout the Persian Gulf, and relies on Arab governments for logistical
support. Hence, in the event of an Israeli attack, Washington would surely be accused of
colluding with Jerusalem, severely damaging the United States position in the region
while provoking a ferocious Iranian response in Iraq, Afghanistan, Gaza, and southern
Lebanon (COOK, 2009).
New sanctions and the Brazil-Turkey initiative
On June 9, as a product of months of negotiations between the U.S., U.K. and France on
the one hand, and Russia and China on the other, the United Nations Security Council
finally passed new economic sanctions against Iran for its nuclear work. The resolution,
among other things, calls for new curbs on conventional-weapons sales to Iran and steps
up international inspections of cargoes shipped in and out of Iran. The new sanctions are
less severe than those initially sought by the U.S., and no one in the Obama White House
ix
Fareed Zakaria, the editor of Newsweek International thinks that Israel does not seem truly serious about what
it claims is its existential threat from Iran, because while the Israeli government talks a great deal about the issue,
its actions suggest that this is actually not that much of a priority. If it were one, Israel would do everything it
could to deepen its ties with its most important ally, the United States. Instead the Israeli government has ruptured
relations with the Obama-administration, and makes little effort on the peace process.

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believes that they will force Tehran to halt its 20-year-long drive for a nuclear capability
by themselves, because when it comes to stopping countries from getting the bomb,
history suggests they are rarely effective. But this new resolution probably will be enough
for the White House to pursue a broader financial war against Iran (LAURIA, 2010).
It is worth noting that the new resolution, the U.N.s fourth round of sanctions
against the country since 2006, passed the 15-nation Security Council with only 12
votes in favor. As expected, council members Brazil and Turkey voted against while
Lebanon abstained , because in May they tried to revive an earlier fuel-swap deal with
an agreement signed in Tehran, which was rejected by the permanent members of the
council since it was not a solution for the core of the Iranian enrichment program.
Moreover, officials from several countries said that the deal was a deftly timed attempt
to throw the sanctions effort off track (SANGER, 2010 A). Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti,
Brazils U.N. ambassador, said sanctions run counter to the successful efforts of
Brazil and Turkey to engage Iran in a negotiated solution, while Turkey also expressed
concern that the adoption of sanctions would negatively affect the momentum of the
Brazil-Turkey initiative.x
Conclusion
Iran is rapidly acquiring the capability to produce nuclear weapons, and recent
developments do not bode well for the prospect of successful negotiations that can end
concerns about Irans nuclear program. Tehran still has far to go to establish
convincingly the peaceful nature of its nuclear efforts, though for now the Iranian
regime might be unable to make significant concessions on the issue because it remains
politically divided and preoccupied with the long-term stability of its rule. In addition, if
Iran believes that the West has a fallback plan, there is little reason for it to make any
concessions before such a plan is offered (ALBRIGHT, 2009).
Iran has an intermediate nuclear status. It has the technical capability to make
nuclear weapons, but it has not acted on that capability, as far as we know
(FITZPATRICK, 2008).xi How the United States and its allies manage this dangerous
period of Irans growing nuclear weapons capabilities could determine whether Iran
x
The deal called for Iran to ship 2,640 pounds of low-enriched uranium to Turkey, where it would be stored
for one year. In exchange, Iran would have the right to receive about 265 pounds of uranium enriched to 20
percent by other countries for use in a reactor that makes isotopes for treating Iranian cancer patients.
Nonetheless, Iran insisted that it would continue its new effort to enrich fuel at a higher level, taking it closer
to bomb-grade material.
xi
Possessing an enrichment capability is not the same as having the Bomb. If enrichment alone conferred
weapons status, Japan, Germany, the Netherlands and Brazil would be considered nuclear-weapons capable.

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takes the step to build nuclear weapons. It is expected that the Obama administration
will expand economic, political, and possibly even military pressure on Iran in an
attempt to keep Iran from stepping out of its threshold status and convince it to suspend
its enrichment program. This will not be easy, because at the same time, the United
States needs to avoid both pushing Iran into a corner from which the Iranian leadership
believes building nuclear weapons is worth the risk and giving other states in the region
incentives to seek nuclear weapons.
Many say Iran constitutes a threat not only to Israel but to the region, to the United
States and to the world at large, and therefore should be addressed without delay by the
international community, first and foremost through effective sanctions. But in fact it
seems the U.S. and Israel still are not certain whether Iran is seeking a nuclear bomb, or
just the ability to build one, or even merely the appearance of the ability. Now the
guessing game touches on three of the most delicate subjects in the dispute: Whether
Israel will strike the facilities and risk igniting a broader Middle East war; whether there
is still time to stop the Iranian program through sanctions and diplomacy; and who is
really in control of Iran and its nuclear program (SANGER, 2010 B).
We shall not forget that even a successful airstrike on Irans nuclear facilities
setting the program back by just a few years could come at a tremendous,
unpredictable cost. Therefore air strike is an option that has to be looked at very
carefully, because the results could be disastrous. Given the risk of unintended
consequences in case of a preemptive military action, it is well worth asking how the
two worst-case outcomes of an Iran with the bomb and a bombed Iran can both be
avoided. Unfortunately, time would appear to be on Irans side as it advances its
weapon capabilities, considering that no country that has proceeded as far as Iran in
nuclear-weapons development has failed to go on to production.xii
An Iran with nuclear weapons would be dangerous and destabilizing, though it is
worth noting that not everyone is convinced that it would automatically force Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey to go nuclear as well. Probably the protections afforded by
American missiles could prevent nuclearization in these countries. Some even argue
that the world can live with a nuclear Iran, since it is living with a nuclear North Korea,
and it lived with a nuclear Soviet Union and communist China (ZAKARIA, 2010 A). We
should also bear in mind that Al Qaeda has expressed interest in acquiring radiological
weapons, and while the world focuses on Iran as the greatest potential source of nuclear
xii

Bruni Tertrais made this observation at the IISS Global Strategic Review conference, September 1214,
2008. Other non-nuclear-weapons states that have developed fissile-material technologies, for example Japan
and Brazil, have not engaged in the kind of weapons-development work that Iran is assessed to have
undertaken.

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proliferation, the clearest danger may be forming somewhere else, maybe in Pakistan.
And unlike Iran, Al Qaeda would have no reason to develop a bomb other than to use it.
A dual policy of engagement and sanctions, with containment strategies targeted at
limiting Iranian access to sensitive technologies and materials, is still the best way to
test possibilities for Iranian cooperation while maintaining vigilance and controls to
limit the nuclear-proliferation threat. If engagement fails, the sanctions strategy
maintains a basis for long-term containment, that can be made working by the Iranian
regimes instinct for self-preservation (CIRINCIONE, 2007).
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