Practice Problems For Homework 2

Practice Problems for Homework 2
1. In a certain rm (from homework #1), 70% of employees know C/C++, 60% know Fortran, and 50% know both languages. a) If an employee knows C/C++, what is the probability that she also knows Fortran? b) If an employee knows Fortran, what is the probability that she also knows C/C++? c) If an employee knows at least one of these languages, what is the probability that she knows both of them? d) Are the events knows C/C++ and knows Fortran independent? 2. Sec 1.9 (page 25), #1 Consider four computer rms, A, B, C, D, bidding for a certain contract. A survey of past bidding success of these rms on similar contracts shows the following probabilities of winning: P (A) = 0.35, P (B) = 0.15, P (C) = 0.3, P (D) = 0.2. Before the decision is made to award the contract, rm B withdraws its bid. Find the new probabilities of A, C, D winning the bid. 3. Sec 1.11 (page 44), #3 A lot of components contains 0.6% defectives. Each component is subjected to a test that correctly identies a defective, but about 2 in every 100 good components are also indicated defective. Given a randomly chosen component is declared defective by the tester, compute the probability that it is actually defective. 4. Sec 1.11 (page 44), #6 Of all the graduate students in a university, 70% are women and 30% are men. Suppose 20% and 25% of the female and male population, respectively, smoke cigarettes. What is the probability that a randomly selected graduate student is: a) a woman who smokes? b) a man who smokes? c) a smoker? 5. An on-line computer system has four incoming communication lines with the properties described in the table below. What is the probability that a randomly chosen message has been received without error?
Line Fraction of trafc Fraction of messages without error 1 0.4 0.998 2 0.3 0.999 3 0.1 0.997 4 0.2 0.992 6. A power network involves three substations, A, B, and C. Overloads at any of these substations might result in a blackout of the entire network. Past history shows that if a substation A alone experiences an overload, then there is a 2% chance of a network blackout. For stations B and C alone these percentages are 3% and 2%, respectively. Overloads at two or more substations simultaneously result in a blackout 8% of the time. During a heat wave there is a 60% chance that substation A alone will experience an overload. For stations B and C these percentages are 20% and 15%, respectively. There is a 5% chance of an overload at two or more substations. During a particular heat wave a blackout due to an overload occurred. Find the probability that the overload occurred at: a) substation A alone; b) substation B alone; c) substation C alone; d) two or more substations simultaneously. 7. A certain article is inspected by two inspectors. When a defective article comes through, the rst inspector detects it with probability 0.3 and throws away. Of those that get past the rst inspector, the second inspector will detect 6 out of 10, on the average. a) What fraction of defective articles are stopped by either the rst, or the second inspector? b) If a defective is stopped, what is the probability that it was stopped by the rst inspector? 8. A production line has an automatic scanner to detect defects. In recent production, 10% of items have been defective. Every defective item is identied correctly as defective with the probability 90%. Every nondefective item is identied correctly as nondefective with the probability 80%. a) If a bottle is lled by A or B, what is the probability that it is rejected? b) If a bottle is rejected, what is the probability that it was lled by A? 9. A small brewery has three bottling machines. Machine A produces 40% of all the bottles, machines B and C produce 30% each. Five percent of bottles lled by A, four percent of bottles lled by B, and three percent of bottles lled by C are rejected for some reason. a) If a bottle is lled by A or B, what is the probability that it is rejected? 2
b) If a bottle is rejected, what is the probability that it was lled by A? 10. A computer program consists of two blocks written independently by two different programmers. The rst block has an error with probability 0.2. The second block has an error with probability 0.3. If the program returns an error, what is the probability that there is an error in both blocks? 11. The following situation occurred on a midterm exam. Students X, Y , and Z forgot to sign their papers. Professor knows that they can write a good exam with probabilities 0.8, 0.7, and 0.5, respectively. After grading, he notices that two unsigned exams are good and one is bad. Given this information, and assuming that students worked independently of each other, what is the probability that the bad exam belongs to student Z?

Practice Problems For Homework 2

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