Abbott India: Performance Highlights
Abbott India: Performance Highlights
Abbott India: Performance Highlights
Abbott India
Performance Highlights
Y/E December (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adjusted PAT 2QCY2012 2QCY2011 % chg (yoy) 412 44 10.8 30 358 26 7.3 17 14.9 70.6 353bp 72.6 1QCY2012 % chg (qoq) 376 29 7.8 27 9.5 51.6 300bp 9.0
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
`1,536 12 Months
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (Rs cr) Net Debt Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (Rs) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Pharmaceuticals 3,264 (261) 0.4 1,375 / 1,807 1,448 10 17,558 5,320 ABOT.BO BOOT IN
For 2QCY2012, Abbott India Ltd (AIL) reported a top-line of `412cr, in line with our estimate of `410cr and 14.9% higher yoy from `358cr in 2QCY2011. The EBITDA margin expanded by 353bp yoy to 10.8% during 2QCY2012 on account of decline in overall expenses. Consequently, the net profit surged by 72.6% yoy to `30cr in 2QCY2012 from `17cr in 2QCY2011. Synergy with SPIL and focus on advertisement & employee expenses to aid growth: AILs merger with Solvay Pharma (SPIL) in CY2011, has provided AIL a widened product portfolio, thus giving it access to untapped therapeutic segments. In addition, the companys continuing focus on advertisement and employee cost, which witnessed a CAGR of 45.7% and 34.7%, respectively, over CY2006-11, is expected to aid in revenue growth going forward. Outlook and valuation: We expect AIL to post a 12.6% CAGR in revenue to `1,833cr over CY2011-13E. The EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 183bp from 10.0% in CY2011 to 11.8% in CY2013E resulting from reduced expenses on account of the complementary nature of businesses of the two entities getting merged (AIL and SPIL). Hence, we expect the companys net profit to witness a 12.5% CAGR over CY2011-13E to `152cr. At the current market price, the stock is trading at a PE of 21.4x its CY2013E earnings and EV/sales of 1.5x for CY2013E. Considering the high valuation, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 75.0 5.8 2.0 17.2
3m 6.9 1.3
1yr 2.5
3yr 17.0
6.1 204.9
Key financials
Y/E December (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoIC (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
CY2010 990 30.1 61 (21.4) 7.0 44.6 53.5 10.7 21.2 54.4 3.1 44.3
CY2011 1,446 46.0 120 97.2 10.0 56.7 27.1 6.0 28.3 63.7 2.1 20.9
CY2012E 1,602 10.8 116 (3.5) 10.4 54.7 28.1 5.3 20.0 52.1 1.8 17.4
CY2013E 1,833 14.4 152 31.2 11.8 71.7 21.4 4.5 22.7 69.5 1.5 13.0
Shareen Batatawala
+91- 22- 3935 7800 Ext: 6849 [email protected]
2QCY12 412 237 57.5 53 12.9 77 18.8 367 44 10.8 0 4 5.7 46 11.2 17 36.1 30 30 7.2
2QCY11 358 206 57.6 44 12.2 82 22.9 332 26 7.3 0 3 5.3 28 7.9 11 39.3 17 17 4.8
yoy chg (%) 14.9 14.7 21.1 (5.7) 10.5 70.6 353bp 23.1 7.0 64.0 50.7 72.6 72.6
1QCY12 376 222 59.1 49 13.1 75 19.9 347 29 7.8 0 6 5.3 29 7.6 12 41.9 17 (10) 27 4.4
qoq chg (%) 9.5 6.6 7.4 3.3 6.0 51.6 300bp (33.3) 7.2 60.9 38.7 76.9 9.0
1HCY12 788 474 60.1 103 13.0 152 19.3 729 59 7.5 0 10 11 60 7.7 29 47.6 32 (10) 42 4.0
1HCY11 601 361 60.1 73 12.1 132 22.0 566 35 5.8 0 6 8 37 6.2 14 38.4 23 23 3.8
% chg 31.1 31.2 41.2 15.3 28.7 70.4 173bp 71.4 30.9 12.6 100.1 37.2 82.3
Investment rationale
Synergies with SPIL to improve the business model
Product portfolio to expand, giving access to newer segments
AIL is present across different segments such as pain management, gastroenterology, metabolic, urology, thyroid, diabetes, neurology, anesthesiology and neonatology. The company has some of the leading pharmaceutical brands such as Digene, Cremaffin, Brufen, Thyronorm, Zolfresh and Pediasure, which are the main revenue drivers. Post the merger with SPIL, AILs product portfolio has widened, providing it leadership position in different therapeutic segments AIL had a gastroenterology portfolio comprising Digene, Cremaffin and Ganaton. Digene is the market leader in the antacid segment with a 35% market share, while Cremaffin is a leader in the laxative segment. With the addition of Duphalac, Creon and Udiliv through the merger of SPIL, the company gained leadership in the gastroenterology segment in India. In addition, the company got access to the womens health segment post-merger with products such as Duphaston, Duvadilan, Pro-9, Life and B-crip. Duphaston was a major contributor (23%) to the total revenue of SPIL in CY2010. Moreover, AILs CNS portfolio strengthened with the addition of SPILs Vertin, a market leader in the vertigo segment in India. Thus, synergy between the two companies is expected to help AILs growth in the long term.
(` cr)
(%)
150
(` cr)
147
157
168
155
206
229
227
222
237
400
455
504
647
848
2QCY10
3QCY10
4QCY10
1QCY11
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
2QCY12
0 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E % of net sales (RHS) Net raw material cost (LHS)
913
200
1,034
54 50
Source: Company, Angel Research (post 2QCY2011 numbers include consolidated results for AIL and SPIL)
Source: Company, Angel Research (*CY2011-13E are consolidated results for AIL and SPIL)
(%)
600
Financials
Exhibit 5: Change in estimates
Y/E December Net sales (` cr) EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`)
Source: Angel Research
Earlier estimates CY2012E 1,661 9.7 60.7 CY2013E 1,918 11.9 90.4
Revised estimates CY2012E 1,602 10.4 54.7 CY2013E 1,833 11.8 71.7
Exhibit 4: Continued focus on advertisement and employee spend to drive revenue growth
100 80 60 2.6 40 20 13.44 0 CY2006 CY2007 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 Advertisement cost (LHS) % of net sales (RHS) 14 20 2.4 24 49 88 5.1 6.1 7 6 5 180 160 140 120 9.5 SPIL 9 8.0 7.4 8 7 38 CY2006 47 CY2007 63 CY2008 78 CY2009 111 CY2010 168 6 CY2011 Employee expense (LHS) % of net sales (RHS) 10.3 10.9 11 10 11.6 12
(` cr)
SPIL
(%)
3 2 1 0
80 60 40 20 0
(` cr)
800
1,446
1,602
Source: Company, Angel Research (*CY2011-13E are consolidated results for AIL and SPIL)
1,833
666
761
990
(%)
(%)
3.1
(` cr)
3.1
100
(` cr)
80 11.1 40 0 76 CY2008 97 CY2009 69 CY2010 Blended margin 144 CY2011 167 CY2012E 216 10.0 10.4
11.8 12 8 4
EBITDA (LHS)
AIL's margin
Source: Company, Angel Research (*CY2011E-13E are consolidated results for AIL and SPIL)
(` cr)
7.3
7 6 152 5
CY2012E
CY2013E
Source: Company, Angel Research (*CY2011E-13E are consolidated results for AIL and SPIL)
(%)
90
8.3
(%)
14.1
15.7
16
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Aug-07 EV Aug-08 1.6x Aug-09 1.2x Aug-10 0.8x Aug-11 Aug-12 0.4x
Aug-08 Price
Aug-09 8x
Aug-10 12x
Aug-11 16x
Aug-12 20x
Key concerns
Shift of focus to the unlisted subsidiary
Abbott Laboratories, USA, bought the healthcare solution business from Piramal Healthcare Ltd (PHL) for a consideration of US$3.8bn in 2010, which was transferred to the unlisted subsidiary, Abbott Healthcare Pvt Ltd (AHPL). The transfer included manufacturing facilities at Baddi, Himachal Pradesh; rights to approximately 350 brands and trademarks; and ~5,000 employees relating to its domestic formulations business. Since the unlisted subsidiary is 100% owned with extended portfolio from Piramals healthcare business, there is a possibility that the parent company shifts its focus to the unlisted entity. Also, the merger would limit listed AILs access to untapped therapeutic segments where PHL already exists.
Company Background
AIL is a 50.44% subsidiary of Abbott Capital India Ltd, UK, which is a subsidiary of Abbott Laboratories, USA. In CY2011, the company merged with Solvay Pharma, which was acquired by the parent company in CY2010. Post merger, AIL strengthened its distribution network to 35 distribution points (from 18), and caters to 4,500 stockists and 1,50,000 retailers. AILs employee count increased from 1,747 in CY2010 to 2,425 in CY2011. The company caters to a wide range of therapeutic segments like gastroenterology, womens health, CNS, metabolics, pain management, anesthesia, neonatology, vitamins, etc.
Balance Sheet
Y/E December (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability (Net) Other Long Term Liabilities Long Term Provisions Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Long term Loans & adv Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Inventory Debtors Other current assets Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 107 58 49 0 339 176 17 102 44 114 225 274 118 69 50 1 403 189 20 129 65 148 255 306 192 112 80 1 31 678 259 27 255 133 5 241 438 549 211 130 81 1 31 705 348 30 212 110 5 197 508 621 232 150 82 1 31 819 447 34 206 126 6 204 615 729 14 258 272 2 274 14 292 305 0 306 21 523 544 (6) 11 549 21 595 616 (6) 11 621 21 703 724 (6) 11 729 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E
10
11
Key Ratios
Y/E December (` cr) Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (0.6) (1.8) 441.5 (0.6) (2.7) 1,455.1 (0.5) (1.8) 4,297.9 (0.6) (2.1) (0.6) (2.1) 7.4 47 18 66 15 8.8 43 20 52 21 9.3 48 25 54 31 8.0 53 25 50 39 8.3 42 25 46 33 35.4 112.2 31.5 20.1 54.4 21.2 30.2 63.7 28.3 25.5 52.1 20.0 29.1 69.5 22.7 11.6 0.7 9.7 74.1 34.8 (0.7) 172.2 5.9 0.6 9.3 35.2 (0.6) 8.9 0.7 7.1 42.5 (0.5) 9.3 0.7 5.9 36.8 (0.5) 10.7 0.7 6.5 46.9 (0.6) 56.7 56.8 63.4 17.0 198.6 44.6 44.6 52.9 17.0 223.3 56.7 56.6 63.7 17.0 256.1 54.7 54.7 63.1 18.0 289.9 71.7 71.7 81.0 18.0 340.8 42.0 63.4 12.0 1.1 4.1 31.7 11.3 53.5 52.9 10.7 1.1 3.1 44.3 10.1 27.1 63.7 6.0 1.1 2.1 20.9 5.5 28.1 24.3 5.3 1.2 1.8 17.4 4.7 21.4 19.0 4.5 1.2 1.5 13.0 3.9 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E
12
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Ratings (Returns):
13