KPCB Internet Trends 2012
KPCB Internet Trends 2012
KPCB Internet Trends 2012
Outline
1) Basic Stats Internet Growth Remains Robust, Rapid Mobile Adoption Still in Early Stages 2) Re-Imagination of Nearly Everything 3) Economy Mixed Trends, With Negative Bias 4) USA, Inc. A Lot to be Excited About in Tech, A Lot to be Worried about in Other Areas 5) Bubble or Not?
BASIC STATS INTERNET GROWTH REMAINS ROBUST, RAPID MOBILE ADOPTION STILL IN EARLY STAGES
INTERNET USERS
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Country China India Indonesia Philippines Nigeria Mexico Russia USA Iran Turkey Top 10 World
Note: *Nigeria / Iran data as of 12/10; Other 8 countries data as of 12/11, 2.3B global Internet users and 8% Y/Y growth rate based on the latest available data (most as of 12/11, some as of 12/10). Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, internetworldstats.com.
MOBILE USERS
1.1B Global Mobile 3G Subscribers, 37% Growth, Q4 @ Only 18% of Mobile Subscribers
Rank Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 USA Japan China Korea Italy UK Brazil India Germany Spain France Indonesia Poland Australia Russia CQ4:11 3G 3G Sub 3G Subs Penetr Y/Y (MM) ation Growth 208 122 57 45 44 42 41 39 38 33 30 29 28 22 17 64% 95 6 85 51 53 17 4 36 57 45 11 57 76 8 31% 9 115 10 25 25 99 841 23 21 35 27 17 21 45 Rank 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Country Canada Taiwan South Africa Turkey Portugal Vietnam Mexico Malaysia Sweden Philippines Saudi Arabia Netherlands Egypt Austria Nigeria CQ4:11 3G 3G Sub 3G Subs Penetr Y/Y (MM) ation Growth 16 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 62% 48 21 20 78 11 11 27 73 11 19 44 10 58 6 34% 17 49 62 19 358 55 7 25 45 17 34 60 24 51
Global 3G Stats:
Subscribers = 1,098MM
Penetration = 18%
Growth = 37%
Note: *3G includes CDMA 1x EV-DO and Rev. A/B, WCDMA, HSPA; One user may have multiple mobile subscriptions and may be counted as multiple subscriber. Source: Informa WCIS+.
iPods Changed Media IndustryiPhones Ramped Even FasteriPad Growth (3x iPhone) Leaves Siblings in Dust
First 8 Quarters Cumulative Unit Shipments, iPod vs. iPhone vs. iPad
1,400 70,000
20,000 1,200 60,000 Global Unit Shipments (000) Global Unit Shipments (000)
400 20,000
5,000
200 10,000
000 000
1 11
2 22
6 6
7 7
8 8
250
200
150
100
50
10
Despite Tremendous Ramp So Far, Smartphone User Adoption Has Huge Upside
Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Subscriptions, Q4:11
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
953MM
Smartphone Subscriptions
1,000
Source: Mobile phone subscriptions per Informa (as of Q4:11), Smartphone subscriptions estimate based on Morgan Stanley Researchs estimated smartphone user as % of total mobile user at the end of 2011 (16%). Note: While there are 1B global 3G subscribers as of Q4:11, not all of them were smartphone users. One user may have multiple mobile subscriptions, therefore actual user #s may be lower than subscriber #s.
11
Impressive 29% of USA Adults Own Tablet / eReader, Up from 2% Less Than Three Years Ago
% of USA Adults Who Own Tablet Computers or eReaders, 4/09 1/12
35% USA Adults that own tablet computers or eReaders (%) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 4/09 9/09 5/10 9/10 11/10 5/11 8/11 12/11 1/12
29%
2%
12
13
Good News = Global Mobile Traffic Growing Rapidly to 10% of Internet Traffic
Global Mobile Traffic as % of Total Internet Traffic, 12/08 5/12 15% 10% in 5/12 % of Internet Traffic
0% 12/08
4/09
8/09
12/09
4/10
8/10
12/10
4/11
8/11
12/11
4/12
14
20%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
Source: comScore.
Good News = Mobile Monetization Growing Rapidly (71% Apps, 29% Ads)
Global Mobile App + Advertising Revenue, 2008 vs. 2011E
$15 Mobile Ad + Apps Spending ($B) Mobile Apps Mobile Advertising $10
$12B
$5
$0.7B
$0 2008 2009 2010 2011E
Source: Gartner. CAGR is compound annual growth rate. Note: Apple has paid >$3B $s to developers as of 9/11, implying gross app market revenue of $4B in 3 years; Google indicated during CQ3 earnings call that it expects $2.5B mobile ad revenue in 2011E
16
Good News = Material Upside for Mobile Ad Spend vs. Mobile Usage
% of Time Spent in Media vs. % of Advertising Spending, USA 2011
Time Spent % of Total Media Consumption Time or Advertising Spending 50%
Internet Ad Mobile Ad = $1.6B*
Ad Spend
43% 42%
= $30B*
~$20B+
Opportunity in USA
Note: *Internet (excl. mobile) advertising reached $30B in USA in 2011 per IAB, Mobile advertising reached $1.6B per IAB. Print includes newspaper and magazine. $20B opportunity calculated assuming Internet and Mobile ad spend share equal their respective time spent share. Source: Time spent and ad spend share data eMarketer, 12/11, Internet and mobile ad dollar spent amount per IAB.
17
Good / Bad News Rapidly Growing Mobile Internet Usage Surpassed More Highly Monetized Desktop Internet Usage in May, 2012, in India
India Internet Traffic by Type, Desktop vs. Mobile, 12/08 5/12
100%
60%
40%
20%
0% 12/08
4/09
8/09
12/09
4/10
8/10
12/10
4/11
8/11
12/11
4/12
18
Note: * Desktop Internet is a weighted average CPM calculation based on comScore Display ad share data and Vivaki CPM by category data as of Q3:11. **Mobile Internet is a simple average eCPM calculation based on Mobclix Exchange USA data as of 3/12.
Bad News = ARPU (Average Revenue per User) 1.7-5x Lower on Mobile than Desktop
Company
ARPU Definition
Ad Revenue per User (Trailing 12-Month) Revenue per Paying User (Annualized) Bookings per Daily Active User (Annualized)
Desktop ARPU
Mobile ARPU
Pandora
$6.62
$3.87
1.7x
Tencent
$58.95
$17.61
3.3x
Zynga
$25.00
$5.00*
5.0x
Note: *Zynga data are estimates. All data as of 5/12. Source: Pandora, Tencent, Zynga.
20
Google Mobile Growth Helping Boost Clicks but Reducing Cost per Click thus Constraining Revenue Growth
15,245 17%
15,004 18%
16,876 28%
19,661 35%
21,116 39%
$0.58 12% 7%
$0.55 4% (5%)
Source: Google, Paid clicks and CPC data per Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
21
Facebook Mobile Growth Helping Drive Users but Containing ARPU thus Constraining Revenue Growth
$4.59 1% 11%
$4.00 1% (13%)
22
Good News = Mobile ARPU Can Rise Rapidly, as Evinced by Japan Mobile Game Maker GREE
GREE Annualized Mobile ARPU (per Registered Member), Q3:09 Q1:12
$30 7/11 New Game Tanken Driland Introduced $20 $17 $12 $10 $6 $7 $7 $8 $8 $9 $10 $24 $23
$0 Q3:09 Q4:09 Q1:10 Q2:10 Q3:10 Q4:10 Q1:11 Q2:11 Q3:11 Q4:11 Q1:12
Note: GREE is a Japanese social / mobile gaming company. Source: GREE, Mia Nagasaka, Morgan Stanley Research.
23
Good News = Mobile ARPU Should Surpass Desktop ARPU, as Evinced by Japan Mobile Game Maker CyberAgent
CyberAgent Ameba Annualized ARPU* (Per Paying User), Desktop vs. Mobile, 6/09 12/11
$450 Average Revenue per Paying User ($) $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 6/09 9/09 8/09 Mobile ARPU = $60 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10 3/11 6/11 9/11 12/11
24
Note: CyberAgent is a Japanese social / mobile gaming company. *Users can purchase 1 AmeGold for 1 Japanese Yen. Users could also earn a small amount of AmeGold from completing certain in-game tasks. Source: CyberAgent.
Mobile Monetization Good News = Desktop Internet Proved Ad $ Follow Eyeballs, it Just Takes Time
1995E Global Internet Ad Revenue Ad Revenue per User Global Internet Users $55MM $9 6MM 2011E $73B $49 1.5B
Mobile Monetization has More Going for It than Early Desktop Monetization Had:
Very Rapid User Growth App + In-App Monetization (44% of apps are free, 56% of apps priced at $3.77 average) Rapid Growth of Mobile Commerce + Payment Systems Large Number of Innovative Developers Broad Base of Sophisticated Advertisers + Marketers Highly Engaged Consumers Assisted by Social + Curation Tools Rapid Acceptance of Two Device Platforms Smartphones + Tablets Essential Utility / Ultra Useful Apps Being Created Lessons from Developed Mobile Markets like Japan Using Japanese Market Pattern Recognition, Mobile Monetization Levels in USA Could Surpass Desktop Within 1-3 Years
Source: Global online ad revenue per Jupiter Communications (1995), ZenithOptimedia (2011). Internet users per Morgan Stanley estimate (1995) and comScore (2011). We note that comScore reports a lower global Internet user # than International Telecommunications Union. App price data per 148apps / AppBrain.
25
26
Facebook Open Graph Distribution Example of Onboarding 17MM New Users in 7 Days*!
Viddy Monthly Active Users (MAU) and Daily Active Users (DAU) on Facebook Platform, 3/31/12 5/29/12 40 Viddy Monthly & Daily Active Users on Facebook (MM)
30 4/24 Facebook Begins Highlighting Viddy in News Feed 20 Monthly Active Users Daily Active Users 10
Note:* Viddy added 17MM new monthly active users between 4/24 (when Facebook began highlighting Viddy in the newsfeed) and 5/1. Source: AppData.
Apple App Store Distribution iTunes App Store Driving 46MM+* Downloads per Day
First 15 Quarters Cumulative # of Downloads, iTunes Music vs. Apps
2,500 30,000
Apps Downloaded iTunes Songs Downloaded
28
RE-IMAGINATION OF NEARLY EVERYTHING* POWERED BY NEW DEVICES + CONNECTIVITY + UI + BEAUTY WHERE WE ARE NOW
*Note that this section includes more slides than were presented at D10 Conference, May 30, 2012.
29
First Generation of Re-Imagination - After 125 Years, Landlines Were Surpassed by Mobiles in 2002
Global Fixed Telephone Lines vs. Mobile Subscriptions, 1994 - 2009
5,000 Global Installed Base (MMs) Fixed Telephone Lines 4,000 Mobile Subscriptions 3,000
2,000
1,000
30
First Generation of Re-Imagination After 244 Years, Encyclopedia Britannica is Going Out of Print in 2012
Encyclopedia Britannica Hard Copy Sales, 1990 2011
150 Annual Hard Copy Sales (000) 1990 Sales Peaked at 120K/year
100 2012 Encyclopedia 2001 Wikipedia Founded, Britannica Announced Today* Wikipedia Has End of Print Editions 470MM Monthly Unique Users 2008 Microsoft Shut Down Encarta
50
Note: *as of 4/12, per comScore global data. Source: Kellog School of Management, Shane Greenstein and Michelle Devereux, The Crisis at Encyclopedia Britannica.
31
First Generation of Re-Imagination After 305 Years,* Newspaper Ad Revenue Was Surpassed by Internet in 2010
U.S. Newspaper (Print) Advertising vs. Internet Advertising Spending, 1995 - 2010
$50 U.S. Advertising Spend ($MM)
$40
$30
$20
$10
$ 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Internet Internet Trendline (2006-2010)
32
2007
2009
Note: *Americas first newspaper ad appeared in 1704 in a Boston local newspaper, per AdAge. Internet advertising includes online newspaper advertising. Source: Print newspaper ad spending per Newspaper Association of America (NAA); Internet ad spending per Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB).
33
Re-Imagination of Connectivity
THEN NOW
34
Re-Imagination of Connectivity
We hope to rewire the way people spread and consume informationWe think a more open and connected world will help create a stronger economy with more authentic businesses that build better products and services.
Mark Zuckerberg, Founder / CEO, Facebook Letter to Potential Shareholders, May 2012
35
NOW
(Facebook Timeline)
Broad Personalized Media Discovery Feed / Automatically Created / Widely Accessible
36
NOW
(Twitter)
Real-Time / Citizen Reporting via Mobile Devices / Global Reach
37
NOW
(Evernote)
Always Synced / Multi-Device / Picture + Audio Enabled / Searchable
38
Re-Imagination of Drawing
THEN
Dedicated Canvas / Paint Supplies / Studios / Limited Distribution
NOW
(Paper by Fiftythree)
Reusable Canvas (Screen) / Creating Art Anywhere Anytime / Digitally Enhanced Creation Tools / Instant Sharing
39
Re-Imagination of Photography
THEN
Dedicated Camera / Manually Transfer Digital Files / Develop Films
NOW
(Instagr.am / Camera+ / Hipstamatic)
Always With You Camera (Smartphone) / Instant Digital Effects / Share / Sync / Discover
40
Re-Imagination of Diaries
THEN
Hand-Written / Drawn
NOW
(Path)
One-Tap to Add Entry / Multimedia / Location-Aware / Share / Search
41
NOW
(Pinterest)
One-Click to Pin / Share / Follow / Always Accessible
42
Re-Imagination of Magazines
THEN
Piles of Print Copies
NOW
(Flipboard)
More Content / Always Up-To-Date / Personalized / Access Everywhere / Interactive (Video + Audio) / Share
43
Re-Imagination of Books
THEN NOW (Amazon Kindle / Apple iBooks)
44
Re-Imagination of Music
THEN
Buy Albums + CDs in Stores / Playback via Dedicated Players
NOW
(Spotify)
Discovery of Music Through Friends + Experts / Instant On-Demand Streaming on InternetEnabled Devices
45
Re-Imagination of Sound
THEN
Tape Recorder / Hard to Edit / Share
NOW
(SoundCloud)
Record / Edit / Upload / Playback Anywhere / Anytime / On Any Device / Playlist sharing / Discovery
46
NOW
(Tupac @ Coachella)
3D / Life-Like / Programmable Hologram / Bringing Past Icons Back to Life
47
Re-Imagination of Video
THEN
Physical Retail / Rental Stores
NOW
(YouTube / Netflix)
On-Demand / Instant Streaming / Accessible Everywhere
48
NOW
(SocialCam / Viddy / GoPro)
Live Digital Effects / Wearable Recording Device / Real-Time Upload / Discovery
49
NOW
(GBTV - Digital)
With 300K Subscribers + Lower Production Costs, GB Making Materially More Money
50
NOW
(Chill)
Curl Up Visual Layout / Social Discovery / Distribution / Interaction
51
Re-Imagination of TV
THEN
Linear Programming / Pre-Set Channels / Little Control Over Content
NOW
(YouTube Channels / Bleacher Team Stream)
On Demand Personalized Content on Big Screen
52
Re-Imagination of Communication
THEN
Dedicated Devices / Limited Function & Range / Intrusive
NOW
(Voxer)
Push-To-Talk / Voice Message / Picture / Text / Location / Group Chat
53
NOW
(Waze)
User-Generated Digital Map / Live Crowd-Sourced Traffic Data
54
NOW
(Bleacher Report)
Anyone Can Be a Contributor / Opinion-Oriented Analysis / Multimedia / Social & Mobile Enabled
55
NOW
(Houzz / One Kings Lane)
Communication Platform for Designers & Consumers / Share / Discover & Click-And-Buy
56
NOW
(Uber)
One-Tap Taxi Call / Location-Aware / Electronic Payment
57
Re-Imagination of Cars
THEN
Gasoline / Diesel Powered Internal Combustion Engine With Exhaust
NOW
(Hybrid / Electric Cars)
Plug-in Electrical Powertrain / Regenerative Brake / Solar Panel Roof / Little-to-Zero Emission
58
NOW
(Yelp)
User Reviews / Pictures / Recommendations / Location-Aware / Easily Searchable
59
NOW
(Groupon)
Personalized / Location-Aware / Instant Deals / Group-buying Discount
60
NOW
(Kogi Food Truck)
~100K Twitter Followers / Real-Time Location Updates
61
NOW
(Square)
Simple + Elegant Tablet + Square Reader / Email Receipts / Touch Signing
62
63
Re-Imagination of Marketplaces
THEN
Tent + Pickup Truck @ Street Fairs
NOW
(Etsy)
Integrated Platform For Listings / Advertising / Payment / Inventory Management
64
Re-Imagination of Manufacturing
THEN
Mass Production of High-Volume Standardized Items
NOW
(Zazzle / Shapeways)
Customized / Personalized Design / 3D Printing Process
65
NOW
(Zaarly / TaskRabbit / Fiverr)
One Click & Delivered to You
66
66
NOW
(KickStarter)
Online / Social Distribution / Real-Time Progress
67
NOW
(Lending Club)
Borrowers Online Application / Funded in Days / Lower Interest Rates Investors Easy Customization / Diversification / Better Returns
68
NOW
(Salesforce.com / Yammer / Jive)
Online Working Groups / Data Sharing / Instant Messages
69
NOW
(LinkedIn)
Online Resumes / Social Relevancy For Recruiters / Searchable Skill Sets / Endorsements / Recommendations
70
NOW
(Affectiva)
Real-Time Video Emotion Detection + Analysis / Effortless Participation / Data Capture / Moodometer
71
Re-Imagination of Data
THEN
Store Everything Because We Can Do It Inexpensively
SOON
Data Obesity / Data Quality Issues How To Find a Needle in a Haystack?
72
Re-Imagination of Signatures
THEN
Scan / Fax / Mail to Return Signature Page
NOW
(DocuSign)
Electronic Documents / Secure Audit Trail / Instant E-Signature
73
NOW
(ZocDoc / Teladoc)
On-Demand Access to Doctors in Minutes or Same Day / In Person or Via Phone Video Call
74
Re-Imagination of Learning
THEN NOW
From learning by listening to learning by doing Education and learning will become as much fun as videogames. And we call it full body learning.
Bing Gordon Partner, KPCB
75
Re-Imagination of Engagement
THEN
Buttons / Joysticks / D-pads / Wires
NOW
(Xbox Kinect)
Camera-Based Gestures / Voice Control
76
Re-Imagination of Education
THEN
Classrooms / Lectures / Reading Materials
NOW
(Codecademy / Coursera / Khan Academy)
Interactive / Online / Accessible by Anyone Anywhere Anytime
77
78
NOW
200MM+ Farmers in India Receive Government Subsidies Via Mobile Devices*
Note: There are 90MM Kisan credit card users and 118MM job card users, both of which do not require bank accounts but utilize mobile phones as identity verification / payment confirmation, per Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India.
79
Re-Imagination of Communication
THEN Caveman Drawings NOW Instagr.am
80
NOW
(SFPD / CrimeMapping)
Centralized Database / Customized Crime Alerts / Mobile Viewing
81
Re-Imagination of Thermostats
THEN
On/Off Switch + Temperature Setting
NOW
(Nest)
Wi-Fi Enabled / Auto-Learning / Auto-Sensing / Remote Control / Energy Efficient
82
NOW
Internet-Enabled / GPS Tracking Pet Collars
83
Re-Imagination of Feeds... ;)
THEN NOW
(Facebook News Feed / Ticker / Twitter Feed)
84
Addressable Market For Re-Imagination Aggregate Market Cap of Global Public Companies = $36+ Trillion*
2012 Market Cap ($B) Financials Consumer Staples Information Technology Energy Consumer Discretionary Health Care Industrials Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Total $6,855 4,386 3,966 3,926 3,734 3,380 3,198 3,129 2,572 1,188 $36,335 2011 Revenue ($B) $4,647 3,972 2,298 6,652 4,734 2,204 4,407 2,607 2,045 1,501 $35,066 2011 EBITDA ($B) $1,035 543 422 1,068 624 455 608 712 699 315 $6,483
Top Companies by Mkt Cap ICBC, China Construction Bank, Wells Fargo Wal-Mart, Nestle, P&G, Coca-Cola Apple, Microsoft, IBM, Google, Samsung Exxon Mobil, PetroChina, Shell, Chevron Toyota, Amazon.com, McDonald's, Walt Disney Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, Roche, Novartis General Electric, Siemens, UPS BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Vale China Mobile, AT&T, Telefonica, Vodafone GDF Suez, National Grid, E.ON, EDF
Note: *Based on 3,000 global publicly traded companies as defined by Morgan Stanley Researchs coverage universe. **EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of 5/23/12.
86
87
2) Car 52 minutes per day by 144MM Americans (76% alone)* spent in cars largely untapped
3) TV 3+ hours per day spent in front of TVs** way better devices / interfaces / interfaces coming rapidly...Apple & Google footsteps raising bar50MM+ Americans have Internet-enabled TVs
Source: *US Census Bureau, **BLS, Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
88
89
Stock Markets = Often Leading Indicators of Economic Activity, Recent 10-Week Trendline Not Encouraging...
Stock / Commodity Markets Performance (% Change From 1/10), 1/10 5/12
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60% 1/10
3/10
5/10
7/10
9/10
11/10
1/11
3/11
5/11
7/11
9/11
11/11
1/12 Oil
3/12 Gold
5/12
S&P500
NASDAQ
MSCI Europe
Note: All values are indexed to 1 (100%) on Jan 1, 2010. Data as of 5/25/12. Source: Bloomberg, Yahoo! Finance, FactSet.
90
Consumer Confidence =
Near Four-Year Highs, Though Still Below 30-Year Average
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, 1978 2012 YTD
160
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Note: Index started in 1967 / benchmarked to 1985=100. The Index is calculated each month on the basis of a household survey of consumers' opinions on current conditions and future expectations of the economy. Source: The Conference Board, 5/12.
91
Percent of USA Consumers Who View The Economy as Poor, 1/09 4/12
77% 68% 66% 61% 61% 59% 62% 61% 52% 59% 60% 62% 60% 54%
49%
1/09
4/09
7/09
10/09
1/10
4/10
7/10
10/10
1/11
4/11
7/11
8/11
10/11
1/12
4/12
Source: comScore.
92
Global GDP Growth Expected to Decelerate in 2012 with Europe Slipping Into Recession
GDP Y/Y % Change, 2009-2012E
Country / Region USA Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain UK Japan China India Russia Brazil Developed Markets Emerging Markets World 2009 -3.5% -4.3 -5.0 -2.6 -5.5 -3.7 -4.9 -6.3 9.2 6.8 -7.8 -0.6 -3.7 2.8 -0.7 2010 3.0% 1.9 3.6 1.4 1.8 -0.1 2.1 4.4 10.4 10.6 4.3 7.5 3.2 7.5 5.3 2011 1.7% 1.4 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 -0.7 9.2 7.2 4.3 2.7 1.6 6.2 3.9 2012E 2.1% -0.3 0.6 0.5 -1.9 -1.8 0.8 2.0 8.2 6.9 4.0 3.0 1.4 5.7 3.5 % of World Total, 2011 22% 19 5 4 3 2 4 8 11 2 3 4 64 36 100
93
USA, INC. A LOT TO BE EXCITED ABOUT IN TECH, A LOT TO BE WORRIED ABOUT IN OTHER AREAS
94
Made in USA Smartphone Operating Systems = 64% Share from 5% Five Years Ago
Smartphone Operating System Market Share, 2005 vs. 2011E
100%
80% Other OS 60% iOS Android Windows Mobile 40% BlackBerry OS Linux Nokia Symbian 20%
0% 2005 2011E
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Gartner.
95
USA, Inc. Biggest Peace Time Gap Between Revenue & Expenses in USA History
USA Inc. Revenue & Expenses as % of GDP, 1901 2011E
50% Revenue as % of GDP (Left Axis) Revenue & Expenses as % of GDP 40% Expenses as % of GDP (Left Axis) Real GDP (Right Axis) 30% $10 $8 20% $6 $4 10% $2 0% 1901 $0 2011E $16 $14 $12 Real GDP (in Trillions of 2005 Dollars)
96
Biggest Peace Time Gap Between Revenue & Expenses in USA History
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
Source: 1910 1930 per Census Bureau, 1940-2010 per White House OMB. Real GDP adjusted for inflation, in 2005 dollars.
97
98
Copyright 2012. All rights reserved.
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Country Japan Jamaica Greece Lebanon Iraq Italy Belgium Singapore Ireland USA Portugal Iceland Germany Canada France
Rank 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Country Hungary Israel UK Egypt Austria Sudan Brazil Jordan Cte d'Ivoire India Netherlands Cyprus Spain Uruguay Pakistan
% of GDP 80% 77 76 74 72 72 67 67 67 64 64 61 60 57 57
Note: Ranking excludes countries with gross government debt less than $10B in 2010. Gross government debt includes intragovernment obligations (such as Treasuries held by the Social Security Trust Fund in US case). Source: The International Monetary Fund (IMF).
99
110K+ Total Views 23K+ YouTube Views 7K+ Facebook Likes 4K+ Retweets
100
Engage in Politics Help Others Understand Key Issues Do What You Can To Innovate, Create Jobs & Improve Education
101
BUBBLE - OR NOT?
102
RECENT INTERNET IPOS WHILE COMPELLING IN MARKET VALUE, NOT COMPELLING IN PERFORMANCE
103
Company Facebook
Zynga
12/11
$8.50-10
10
10
(40)
Groupon
11/11
$16-18
20
26
12
(40)
13
Pandora
6/11
$10-12
16
17
11
(30)
5/11
$32-35
45
94
100
137
10
104
$125
11/11 Follow-on offering @ $71 per share, Raised $714MM 5/12 Q1 Revenue $188MM, 2/12 +101% Y/Y, 5% Q4 Revenue $168MM, above consensus EBITDA $38MM, +105% Y/Y, 5% 31% above above consensus consensus EBITDA $34MM, 62% above consensus
$100
$75
8/11 Q2 Revenue $121MM, +124% Y/Y, 14% above consensus EBITDA $5MM, 5x consensus 11/11 Q3 Revenue $140MM, +129% Y/Y, 10% above consensus EBITDA $12MM, 2x consensus
$50
$25
$0 5/11
7/11
9/11
11/11
1/12
3/12
5/12
105
A Key to Successful Financings / Wealth Creation All Stakeholders in Same Boat, Rowing in Same Direction
106
107
~2% of companies accounted for ~100% of net wealth creation of 1,720 Tech IPOs in USA (19802002).*
*The Technology IPO Yearbook: 9th Edition 23 Years of Tech Investing, Morgan Stanley
108
Source: Presentation titled The State of Capital Markets and An Update on Technology Trends, July 23, 2001, Morgan Stanley.
109
THIS CYCLE OF TECH DISRUPTION IS MATERIALLY FASTER & BROADER THAN PRIOR CYCLES
110
Outline
1) Basic Stats Internet Growth Remains Robust, Rapid Mobile Adoption Still in Early Stages 2) Re-Imagination of Nearly Everything 3) Economy Mixed Trends, With Negative Bias 4) USA, Inc. A Lot to be Excited About in Tech, A Lot to be Worried about in Other Areas 5) Bubble or Not?
111
Disclosure
The information offered in this presentation speaks to industry trends in general, and should not be construed as providing any particular recommendations or analysis for any specific company that is mentioned in this presentation. KPCB is a venture capital firm that owns significant equity positions in certain of the companies referenced in this presentation.
112