Quarterly Report To Clients
Quarterly Report To Clients
Quarterly Report To Clients
2 4 6
Commentary
The cycles of value investing appear rmly intact, and the current cycle is on-par with where we might expect to be since the prior peak.
Portfolio Strategies
We focused mainly on building positions initiated during the third quarter. Portfolios are among the cheapest in our history.
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Highlighted Holding
Staples, Inc., the worlds largest ofce supplies company, is a prime example of an industry leader left behind in investors ight to safety.
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Pzena Commentary
Although no two cycles are exactly alike, the current cycle is remarkably consistent with the four prior. If history is a guide, there should continue to be signicant opportunity in the deep value space.
Is Value Investing Dead?
Equity investors have been shaken to the core. The cumulative pain of the last ve years is palpable, and has been compounded by the market decline and incessant volatility of the last six months. Add to that the proliferation of high-frequency trading, ETFs and other new market participants, and investors are questioning the very foundation of value investing: the notion that, over the long term, the value of a good, but undervalued, business will ultimately be recognized by the market. We are hearing echoes of 1999, the last time the death knell of value investing gained currency. Investors are asking whether there is a new paradigm, one in which the long term view is overwhelmed by short term traders reacting to macro events half way around the world. Will value investing ever work again? There is no denying that an obsession with macroeconomic events dominated market activity during 2011. The correlation of stock returns is the highest it has ever been, an indication that markets are being driven by broad, unspecied fears. Volatility has also spiked, with the MSCI ACWI moving by more than 1% on 28 trading days in the July December period. The risk-on, risk-off trade has come to dominate market activity, driving cash ows into sectors considered safe on days when fears spike, merely to reverse back into economically sensitive sectors when fears abate. Taking a step back from the day-to-day market noise, however, provides a useful perspective in which to assess recent market activity, and possibly even identify hidden opportunities otherwise obscured. We studied the performance of a nave deep value benchmark (referred to as value in this article and dened as the cheapest quintile of the 1000 largest U.S. listed companies on a price-to-book basis) versus the S&P 500 index over the last 42 years, and have a number of key observations: - Recent experience is highly consistent with the historical ebbs and ows of the cycles of value investing; - The most recent period of value outperformance, which started in December 2008, was interrupted in mid-2011 for six months, as investor sentiment shifted from optimism to uncertainty on concerns over sovereign debt, Eurozone stability, and slowing global economic growth; - We experienced similar interruptions in almost all value cycles over the last 42 years, and both the magnitude and duration of the mid-2011 interruption are consistent with prior cycles (Figure 1); - The last peak in the value cycle was 58 months ago a seeming eternity in the investment world. Since then, value has underperformed the S&P 500 by a cumulative 11.8%. As it turns out, this cycle-to-date relative performance for value versus the broad market is almost exactly the average of the last four full value cycles (Figure 2); - If history is a guide, there is signicant pent-up opportunity in the value category (Figure 2); - The ight to safety and across-the-board, indiscriminate selling of cyclical businesses has left a wealth of deeply undervalued, industry leading companies with solid business franchises, high free cash ows, and solid balance sheets. Conversely, businesses considered safe (i.e., stable earnings or high dividend paying such as utilities and consumer staples) are at record high valuations rela-
*Cheapest quintile price-to-book of 1,000 largest U.S. stocks; Measured from the start of value outperformance vs. S&P 500. Data through 12/31/11 **The Nov 90 - Aug 95 cycle had three relatively short, mild interruptions of 2.7%, 2.7% and 2.0% lasting two months each Source: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., Pzena Analysis
tive to cyclical businesses. - Because these undervalued companies have the nancial strength and market position to make it through a range of economic scenarios, share price volatility provides opportunity without outsized risk of permanent loss relative to the market. - To a large extent, the macro outcomes are not knowable, so it is prudent to place signicant emphasis on balance sheets and competitive position, with a conservative view of future growth. Even with these conservative assumptions, many attractively valued opportunities exist.
peaking and investors throw valuation to the wind to chase the momentum of hot areas. The refrain but this time its different gains widespread currency. Remember the internet in 1999? But eventually, traditional forces that drive the economic cycles reappear, and the cycle starts all over again. Periods of value outperformance in these cycles have been long and rewarding. Since 1969 these periods lasted 7 years on average, and delivered 184% of cumulative out-performance versus the broad market (Figure 1). As a result, over four entire cycles lasting a total of 38 years, value outperformed the broad market by 4.8% per annum. All of these periods of value outperformance, however, have experienced, on average, two temporary interruptions, each lasting 4 months, with value underperforming the broad market by 7.2%. The 2011 interruption was quite similar, lasting six months and producing relative performance of -8.8%. The last value cycle peaked in early 2007, as cracks in the housing market appeared. This ultimately triggered the global nancial crisis, and deep recession that lasted 18 months from late 2007 through March, 2009. As is typical, value strategies suffered as the market underwent a massive re-valuation. But as the U.S. bank stress tests and subsequent capital raises started to stabilize the market in March 2009, value was poised for a strong rebound. This in fact occurred, actually starting right after the U.S. presidential election in November, 2008. From that point through December, 2011, deep value outperformed the broad market by a cumulative 51.5%. Although we have been buffeted by massive volatility during the last half of 2011, the downward re-valuation of global equities occurred mainly during the third (continued on page 16)
Figure 3: Value Investing Cycles over the Last 42 Years
Performance Low P/B* Feb 69 - Jun 73 -8.3% Jul 73 - Jul 79 206.9% Full Cycle (Annualized) 10.4% Aug 79 - Nov 80 17.4% Dec 80 - Aug 88 414.7% Full Cycle (Annualized) 21.9% Sep 88 - Oct 90 -16.2% Nov 90 - Aug 95 247.9% Full Cycle (Annualized) 16.5% Sep 95 - Feb 00 71.8% Mar 00 - Feb 07 187.5% Full Cycle (Annualized) 14.9% Feb 69 - Feb 07 15.5% Mar 07 - Nov 08 -56.3% Dec 08 102.2% Cycle-to-Date (Annualized) -2.5% S&P 500** 19.3% 30.4% 4.3% 45.6% 160.7% 15.8% 25.1% 113.2% 15.1% 163.0% 15.5% 10.1% 10.7% -33.4% 50.6% 0.1% Low P/B vs. S&P 500 -27.6% 176.4% 6.1% -28.3% 254.1% 6.1% -41.3% 134.6% 1.5% -91.2% 171.9% 4.8% 4.8% -22.8% 51.5% -2.6% # Months 53 73 126 16 93 109 26 58 84 54 84 138 457 21 37 58
Fear has created a valuation opportunity in numerous cyclical stocks. This situation is remarkable given that corporate protability has proven to be so resilient in the face of changing economic fortunes. We are taking advantage of deep discounts available today among cyclical stocks with sustainable business franchises, strong balance sheets, and a demonstrated ability to adapt to whatever the economy has to offer. This is exactly what would be expected of value investors at this point in the cycle - buying cyclical companies, with a particular focus on strong franchises and balance sheets. This was how we concluded the Commentary in our September Newsletter and, a strong rally in the markets in October notwithstanding, three months later it feels like not too much has changed. Overall, portfolio turnover was lower than average this quarter, as the signicant revaluation occurred during the third quarter, at which time we initiated a number of new positions in attractively valued cyclical businesses.
better than expected results. We began to exit our position as the share price reected this success after an unusually short period of ownership. In recent months, VW shares have weakened again on macro concerns. We have rebuilt exposure in our Global, EAFE and European strategies at 7.9x our normal earnings estimate.
Intra-Sector Activity
Within nancials, we have rebalanced some positions this quarter, but generally maintained our overall level of exposure. There is plenty of unrealized excess return potential in our deeply undervalued positions without the need to materially increase the exposure. Within the information technology sector we added to Computer Sciences Corporation, which reacted poorly this quarter to a disappointing earnings report, and Hewlett Packard, which seems to have started to gain some equilibrium under new CEO Meg Whitman. Microsoft and Capgemini have been added to while Dell, Ingram Micro and Avnet have been pared in certain U.S. strategies on improved valuations. Capgemini, is a French-based IT consultancy. Europe dominates its business, but it sources around 20% of billings from the U.S. The public sector accounts for more than a quarter of revenues, which makes for some uncertainty in the current scal environment. This area has recently been a source of disappointment to some of its competitors. IT consulting is perceived to be notoriously cyclical, which in part explains the 50% drop in the companys share price from its mid-year high. However, a high proportion of their business is either ongoing, outsourced IT work or long-tail (3- to 5-year) projects. Capgemini has a very exible cost structure which it manages proactively, a robust franchise which is growing as outsourcing increases, and a strong balance sheet. Its shares are unlikely to prove immune from the prevailing short-term headwinds for the sector, but its shares trade attractively at 6x our normal earnings estimate.
PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES
Top 10 Holdings
Since Inception 10/1/00 3.7% 3.2% 3.3%
One Year
Three Year
All returns through December 31, 2011; see Performance/Portfolio notes on page 18
Hewlett-Packard Co. Royal Dutch Shell plc Staples Inc. Allstate Corp. Northrop Grumman Corp. BP plc Entergy Corp. Exxon Mobil Corp. Molson Coors Brewing Co. Abbott Laboratories
4.9% 4.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3%
Portfolio Characteristics
Pzena Large Cap Value Price to Normal Earnings Price / Earnings (1-Year Forecast) Price / Book Median Market Cap ($B) Weighted Average Market Cap ($B) Correlation (to Russell 1000 Value) Standard Deviation (5-Year) Number of Stocks (model portfolio)
Source: Russell 1000 Value, Pzena Analysis
Sector Weights
Russell 1000 Value 11.3x* 11.7x 1.4x $4.6 $71.4 1.0 20.1% 656 Sector Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financial Services Health Care Materials & Processing Producer Durables Technology Utilities
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Pzena Large Russell Cap Value* 1000 Value 14% 3% 12% 33% 3% 7% 7% 17% 4% 10% 8% 12% 25% 13% 3% 9% 7% 13%
* Pzena Large Cap Value Composite. Sector weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Quarterly Portfolio Notes We did not add any new positions to the portfolio this quarter, as we view our current holdings as superior to any of the new opportunities that we investigated. We continue to nd value in a number of cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary, nancials, materials, and technology. Our largest holdings continue to be companies we believe have an ability to adapt to adverse macro environments based on business exibility and sound balance sheets.
Highlighted Holding
Royal Dutch Shell plc is a leading global integrated oil and gas company. Over the last half decade, the company has invested heavily in a number of projects (several of which are quite large), that are just now starting to ramp up. Many of these investments are expected to have long and stable production lives, and together they position the company to have one the highest rates of growth in production and free cash ow among the majors over the next few years. Additionally, the companys rening assets currently are under-earning, representing the potential for a rebound. Meanwhile, the company as a whole is earning an attractive return on equity and pays a dividend yield of just under 5%. The company is nancially sound with net debt representing less than 10% of total operating capital. We view Royal Dutch as attractively valued, trading at just under 7x our estimate of normalized earnings.
PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES
Pzena Value
Performance Summary
Annualized as of December 31, 2011
Top 10 Holdings
Since Ten Inception Year 1/1/96 9.3% 8.5% 7.2%
Three Year
Five Year
All returns through December 31, 2011; see Performance/Portfolio notes on page 18
Hewlett-Packard Co. Exxon Mobil Corp. Avnet Inc. Staples Inc. Abbott Laboratories Allstate Corp. Royal Dutch Shell plc Northrop Grumman Corp. Hospitality Properties Trust RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.
4.8% 4.7% 4.1% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%
Portfolio Characteristics
Pzena Value Price to Normal Earnings Price / Earnings (1-Year Forecast) Price / Book Median Market Cap ($B) Weighted Average Market Cap ($B) Correlation (to Russell 1000 Value) Standard Deviation (5-Year) Number of Stocks (model portfolio)
Source: Russell 1000 Value, Pzena Analysis
Sector Weights
Russell 1000 Value 11.7x* 11.7x 1.4x $4.6 $71.4 1.0 20.1% 656 Sector Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financial Services Health Care Materials & Processing Producer Durables Technology Utilities
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
* Pzena Value Composite. Sector weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Quarterly Portfolio Notes The portfolio continues to have signicant exposure to cyclical businesses with sound balance sheets and solid business franchises which are among the cheapest in our investment universe. We added to existing housing-related exposure (Fortune Brands Home & Security), initiated a new position in MetLife, and added to Molson Coors, a rare opportunity in consumer staples. Our largest exposures continue to be in technology, consumer discretionary and insurance names.
Highlighted Holding
MetLife Inc. is a global life insurer with a market leading position in the U.S. and also strong positions in Japan, Latin America, and other international geographies. The company is very well capitalized and should be able to increase its protability as it deploys excess capital and integrates its acquisition of ALICO (formerly AIGs international life insurance operations). After acquiring ALICO, MetLife is now more globally diversied with more than 40% of prots coming internationally, increasingly earns prots based on mortality rather than capital markets risks, and is better positioned for growth. The stock has fallen on overblown concerns regarding the macro economy and declining interest rates. MetLifes investment exposure to peripheral Europe is very limited, and while low interest rates are a drag on earnings, MetLife has interest rate hedges to help mitigate against lower investment income. At 5.4x our estimate of normalized earnings and 0.6x book value, we believe the stock is very attractive.
PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES
Top 10 Holdings
Since Ten Inception Year 9/1/98 7.8% 11.5% 7.0% 10.8% 7.7% 8.8%
4Q 2011 Mid Cap Value - Gross Mid Cap Value - Net Russell Midcap Value 20.4% 20.2% 13.4%
One Year
Three Year
All returns through December 31, 2011; see Performance/Portfolio notes on page 18
Avnet Inc. Entergy Corp. L-3 Communications Curtiss-Wright Corp. Staples Inc. Brady Corp. Omnicom Group Hospitality Properties Trust Mohawk Industries Inc. Allstate Corp.
4.6% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.1%
Portfolio Characteristics
Pzena Mid Cap Value Price to Normal Earnings Price / Earnings (1-Year Forecast) Price / Book Median Market Cap ($B) Weighted Average Market Cap ($B) Correlation (to Russell Midcap Value) Standard Deviation (5-Year) Number of Stocks (model portfolio)
Source: Russell Midcap Value, Pzena Analysis
Sector Weights
Russell Midcap Value 12.9x* 13.2x 1.3x $3.7 $7.8 1.0 23.2% 528 Sector Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financial Services Health Care Materials & Processing Producer Durables Technology Utilities
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Pzena Russell Mid Cap Value* Mid Cap Value 22% 3% 0% 32% 0% 7% 17% 13% 6% 12% 7% 6% 32% 6% 5% 10% 6% 16%
* Pzena Mid Cap Value Composite. Sector weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Quarterly Portfolio Notes There was not a signicant shift among sectors during the quarter, as we maintained our positioning in cyclical businesses. Our largest exposures are in nancials, consumer discretionary, producer durables and technology and small weights in utilities and energy. We added positions in life insurance and housing products, and sold our position in Rent-A-Center (rent-to-own) as it reached fair value. We continue to see opportunities in good businesses exposed to the economic cycle trading at attractive valuations.
Highlighted Holding
Avnet is the worlds largest distributor of electronic components and value added reseller of enterprise computer and storage products with annual revenue of $26 billion. The company sells semiconductors and electronic components to customers in a wide variety of industries including: automotive, communications, computer hardware, medical, defense and aerospace. Avnet is facing cyclical pressures due to weakness in the semiconductor industry, but we believe long term Avnet will remain a leading company in an industry that will continue to consolidate and deploy capital efciently (the company recently announced its rst stock buyback ever). Avnet also has strong downside protection through a counter-cyclical balance sheet that generates cash from working capital when revenue falls. We assume revenues will grow a modest 2.5% per annum, and margins will normalize at their long-term historical levels of 3.6%. Based on these assumptions, Avnet is currently trading at 5.7x our estimate of normalized earnings, making it one of the cheapest stocks in the portfolio.
PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES
Top 10 Holdings
Since Three Five Ten Inception Year Year Year 1/1/96
4Q 2011 Small Cap Value - Gross Small Cap Value - Net Russell 2000 Value 17.3% 17.0% 16.0%
One Year
-8.7% 21.1% 1.7% 8.5% 12.9% -9.6% 19.9% 0.7% 7.5% 11.7% -5.5% 12.4% -1.9% 6.4% 8.8%
All returns through December 31, 2011; see Performance/Portfolio notes on page 18
Harte-Hanks Inc. Con-way Inc. Diodes Inc. Brady Corp. National Penn Bancshares Inc. Primerica Inc. Webster Financial Corp. Argo Group International BBCN Bancorp Inc. Huntington Ingalls Industrie
4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Portfolio Characteristics
Pzena Small Cap Value Price to Normal Earnings Price / Earnings (1-Year Forecast) Price / Book Median Market Cap ($B) Weighted Average Market Cap ($B) Correlation (to Russell 2000 Value) Standard Deviation (5-Year) Number of Stocks (model portfolio) 7.4x 12.0x 1.0x $1.1 $1.2 0.96 29.3% 43 Russell 2000 Value 12.3x* 14.0x 1.2x $0.4 $1.1 1.0 24.9% 1354
Sector Weights
Sector Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financial Services Health Care Materials & Processing Producer Durables Technology Utilities
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Source: Russell 2000 Value, Pzena Analysis *Small Cap Universe Median
* Pzena Small Cap Value Composite. Sector weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Quarterly Portfolio Notes We continue to nd cheap and interesting opportunities in the small cap universe and established several new positions in home building and industrial batteries. In addition, we added to Skechers USA, PHH Corp. and TCF Financial on weakness. We funded our buys from Delphi Financial Group (buyout offer by Tokyo Marine at a 70% premium) as well as ConMed Corp. and MTS Systems Corp., which have appreciated close to fair value.
Highlighted Holding
Besides the cyclical opportunities that abound in the market today, we also continue to nd stocks with more unique characteristics. VCA Antech operates in two businesses, veterinary hospitals and laboratory testing for domestic animals (dogs and cats). The laboratory business operates in a duopoly with large barriers to entry due to scale and distribution density, and, similar to human medicine, with increasing volumes. In the hospital business, volumes declined over the last decade, as some ea and other medications that were traditionally sold by hospitals now can be purchased through pet and other retail stores. As a result, veterinary hospital visits now mostly result in medical procedures. The volume declines accelerated in the current weak environment as pet owners deferred treatment for their pets. With an eventual return to normal volumes we project normal earnings of $2.25. Although the stock has increased in price from the $14 where we initiated our position, it is still reasonably priced at 9x our estimate of normalized earnings.
PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES
Top 10 Holdings
YTD 2011 -12.8% -13.3% -5.5% One Year -12.8% -13.3% -5.5% Three Year 11.0% 10.2% 11.1% Five Year -8.7% -9.4% -2.4% Since Inception 1/1/04 0.9% 0.1% 3.7%
4Q 2011 Global Value - Gross Global Value - Net MSCI World Index 7.8% 7.7% 7.6%
All returns through December 31, 2011; see Performance/Portfolio notes on page 18
Hewlett-Packard Co. Royal Dutch Shell plc Akzo Nobel Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd. BAE Systems plc Northrop Grumman Corp. Microsoft Corp. BP plc Travis Perkins plc Philips Electronics NV
4.6% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7%
Portfolio Characteristics
Pzena Global Value Price to Normal Earnings Price / Earnings (1-Year Forecast) Price / Book Median Market Cap ($B) Weighted Average Market Cap ($B) Correlation (to MSCI World Index) Standard Deviation (5-Year) Number of Stocks (model portfolio) 6.2x 9.0x 0.9x $25.7 $52.2 0.95 27.1% 44 MSCI World Index 10.4x* 11.8x 1.6x $7.7 $69.2 1.0 20.5% 1615
Sector Weights
Sector Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecom Services Utilities
0% 10% 20%
MSCI World Index 10% 11% 12% 18% 11% 11% 12% 7% 4% 4%
* Pzena Global Value Composite. Sector weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Quarterly Portfolio Notes Global stock markets recovered some of the losses suffered in the previous quarter. Overall valuations remain at very attractive levels despite the modest recovery. During the quarter, we added to exposure in areas such as consumer, technology and industrials and reduced our exposure to health care, where valuation has become less attractive given relative outperformance.
Region Concentration
Region Concentration North America United Kingdom Europe ex-UK Japan Dev.Asia ex-Japan Australia / New Zealand Emerging Markets
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Country weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Highlighted Holding
Molson Coors Brewing Co. is a leading beer producer with 30% market share in the U.S. and 40% in Canada. It has strong brands such as Molson Canadian and Coors Light. Beer consumption volume has been under pressure during the economic downturn as the core consumer of beer tends to be younger and more negatively impacted by the economic downturn versus the general population. Raw material cost increases have been an additional drag on the protability of the industry. We believe that the companys earnings will benet during an economic recovery. Trading at 8.3x our estimate of normalized earnings, its an attractive addition to the portfolio.
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PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES
Top 10 Holdings
YTD 2011 One Year -13.4% -14.1% -12.1% Three Year 13.3% 12.3% 7.7% Five Year -5.9% -6.7% -4.7% Since Inception 1/1/04 3.3% 2.4% 3.9%
4Q 2011 EAFE Value - Gross EAFE Value - Net MSCI EAFE Index
All returns through December 31, 2011; see Performance/Portfolio notes on page 18
BAE Systems plc Philips Electronics NV Azko Nobel Travis Perkins plc Cap Gemini Royal Dutch Shell plc Lagardere SCA Enel SpA Deutsche Boerse AG Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd.
3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%
Portfolio Characteristics
Pzena EAFE Value Price to Normal Earnings Price / Earnings (1-Year Forecast) Price / Book Median Market Cap ($B) Weighted Average Market Cap ($B) Correlation (to MSCI EAFE Index) Standard Deviation (5-Year) Number of Stocks (model portfolio) 6.1x 9.0x 0.9x $13.6 $33.5 0.95 27.8% 43 MSCI EAFE Index 10.1x* 10.7x 1.2x $6.3 $48.6 1.0 22.6% 925
Sector Weights
Sector Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecom Services Utilities
0% 10% 20%
* Pzena EAFE Value Composite. Sector weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Quarterly Portfolio Notes The MSCI EAFE index rose in the quarter as investor sentiment regarding global growth became less negative. Sectors such as energy, consumer and industrial led performance while nancials and utilities detracted from performance. We added to our exposure in European companies, where valuation is particularly low, and reduced our exposure to Japan, where the opportunity is less compelling.
Region Concentration
Region Concentration North America United Kingdom Europe ex-UK Japan Dev.Asia ex-Japan Australia / New Zealand Emerging Markets & Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Country weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Highlighted Holding
Lagardere S.C.A. is a French conglomerate with interests ranging from book publishing, magazine printing, travel retailing to sports marketing. In addition, the company is a shareholder in EADS (the parent company of Airbus) and Canal+ (TV & lm studio and distributor). Lagarderes share price declined sharply following a series of earnings warning. While serious challenges exist for some of Lagarderes divisions, we believe that current share price offers signicant upside potential thru a combination of corporate restructuring and earnings improvement driven by both economic recovery and operational improvement. Trading at 5x our estimate of normalized earnings, Lagardere is a very attractive holding for the portfolio.
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PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES
Top 10 Holdings
4Q 2011 YTD 2011 -16.1% -16.4% -11.1% One Year -16.1% -16.4% -11.1% Three Year 11.5% 11.0% 7.9% Since Inception 8/1/08 -3.8% -4.2% -6.7%
All returns through December 31, 2011; see Performance/Portfolio notes on page 18
BAE Systems plc Akzo Nobel Teleperformance Royal Dutch Shell plc Aegis Group plc Travis Perkins plc Philips Electronics Cap Gemini Gazprom OAO Lagardere SCA
4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%
Portfolio Characteristics
Pzena European Value Price to Normal Earnings Price / Earnings (1-Year Forecast) Price / Book Median Market Cap ($B) Weighted Average Market Cap ($B) Number of Stocks (model portfolio) 5.4x 8.1x 0.8x $11.9 $32.5 39 MSCI Europe Index 8.7x* 10.4x 1.3x $8.0 $58.5 450
Sector Weights
Sector Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecom Services Utilities
0% 10% 20%
Pzena MSCI European Value* Europe Index 8% 21% 14% 0% 13% 14% 22% 18% 1% 12% 25% 10% 8% 3% 4% 10% 2% 7% 3% 5%
30%
* Pzena European Value Composite. Sector weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Quarterly Portfolio Notes European equities, being at the center of current macro anxiety, are exceptionally attractive at the moment. This is particularly true for companies that have global footprints but trade at substantial discounts to their global peers given their European domicile. In the quarter, we added to some of our existing positions where the valuations are compelling.
Region Concentration
Region Concentration United Kingdom France Germany Switzerland Emerging Markets Rest of Europe
0% 10%
Country weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Highlighted Holding
BAE Systems plc is a U.K.-based defense contractor. With U.K. and U.S. governments accounting for the majority of its revenues, concerns over defense budget cuts are weighing on BAEs share price. The company has managed the challenge on the revenue front through aggressive cost cutting and restructuring and has maintained protability in the process. While we see severe challenges on the revenue front for all defense contractors, we believe BAEs share price adequately reects the downside risk. Trading at 6.9x our estimate of normalized earnings and 6.1% free cash ow yield, we believe BAE is an attractive holding.
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PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES
Top 10 Holdings
4Q 2011 YTD 2011 One Year -21.9% -22.3% -18.4% Three Year 19.1% 18.1% 20.1% Since Inception 1/1/08 -3.1% -4.1% -5.2%
Emerging Markets Value - Gross Emerging Markets Value - Net MSCI Emerging Markets Index
All returns through December 31, 2011; see Performance/Portfolio notes on page 18
Gazprom OAO China Mobile Ltd. Usiminas Hon Hai Precision Industry Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Petrobras Sasol Ltd. Oriflame Cosmetics Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. LG Electronics Inc.
3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7%
Portfolio Characteristics
Pzena Emerging Markets Value Price to Normal Earnings Price / Earnings (1-Year Forecast) Price / Book Median Market Cap ($B) Weighted Average Market Cap ($B) Number of Stocks (model portfolio) 7.1x 7.9x 1.0x $5.0 $29.9 52 MSCI Emerging Markets Index 11.2x* 9.7x 1.6x $3.8 $31.2 820
Sector Weights
Sector Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecom Services Utilities
0% 10% 20%
Pzena Emerging MSCI Emerging Markets Value* Markets Index 14% 3% 14% 22% 0% 9% 18% 7% 8% 5%
30%
Source: MSCI Emerging Markets Index, Pzena Analysis *Emerging Markets Universe Median
* Pzena Emerging Markets Value Composite. Sector weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Quarterly Portfolio Notes This quarter, emerging and global markets staged a sharp rebound in October before again succumbing to renewed fears later in the quarter. We continue to see increasing opportunity in selected cyclicals, and, as such, added to our industrial and technology exposures. In addition, the relative underperformance of India this year allowed us to slightly raise our weight in that market.
Region Concentration
Region Concentration Africa / Middle East Asia/Pacific (ex Japan) Europe Latin America
Country weights adjusted for cash - may appear higher than actual
Pzena MSCI Emerging Emerging Markets Value Markets Index 11% 55% 18% 16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Highlighted Holding
Huadian Power and China Power International are mainland China-based independent power producers (IPPs). Both companies have struggled due to high priced coal feedstock and an inability to pass pricing through to power consumers as a result of regulated tariffs. The authorities have been reticent to raise tariffs, fearing the effect on Chinas already high ination rate. Recently, ination has begun to slow; as such, regulators are offering the IPPs tariff relief. In addition, coal price pressure has started to abate. These two factors should lead to an improvement in returns for the IPPs over time. The companies currently trade attractively at about 6x our estimate of normalized earnings.
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HIGHLIGHTED HOLDING
nia to Maine compared to 116 stores for OfceMax and Ofce Depot combined. Strong nancial performance combined with a much better balance sheet and dominant market presence allowed Staples to gain share from its competitors in the last two downturns. Overall, we believe that Staples is well positioned for an economic upturn. But even if the environment weakens in the near term, Staples is positioned to be a net beneciary by gaining share from its relatively weaker competitors, further strengthening its market dominance.
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prots in North America from ofces and small businesses a segment that Amazons business model is not geared to serve effectively. Businesses need one-stop ordering, a clear ofce products catalog, and single delivery of their items supported by a sales and account service team. Amazons business-to-consumer model relies heavily on third-party sellers that results in multiple shipments and requires effort to nd, order and track deliveries, since Amazon provides limited dedicated sales support infrastructure. While Amazons prices are sometimes lower than ofce supplies stores, adjusted for next day delivery promised by ofce superstores, Amazon is generally more expensive. While it is possible for an online competitor like Amazon to develop a robust business-to-business model with a sales force to service businesses, Staples is already the second largest internet retailer worldwide and should be able to effectively address that challenge.
company took on about $2.7 billion of debt in connection with its acquisition of Corporate Express in 2008, but has managed to pay off most of it in the last two years. As a result, net debt today stands at fairly conservative 0.4x earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The company has generated more than $5 billion of free cash ow in last ve years, and at this time, company is focused on returning cash to shareholders. The company bought back approximately $600 million of stock in 2011, and recently announced a $1.5 billion stock buy-back program, which is signicant in relation to the companys market capitalization of approximately $10 billion.
Summary
Staples has a leading and structurally advantaged franchise in the North American ofce products retail and delivery business. The company has a history of generating high returns on capital, industry-leading margins, and strong cash ows. We believe Staples will be able to sustain its margins going forward owing to its local market dominance, scale advantages, and proven track record for identifying prot-enhancing opportunities on both the product and cost sides of the business. Even using conservative assumptions for white collar employment recovery, we believe Staples can generate 11-12% return on invested capital going forward. We expect that when white collar employment ultimately turns up, Staples, should be positioned to fully participate in the recovery. Meanwhile, the company offers a 10% free cash ow yield and, should the economy struggle further, is well positioned to take share as its competitors continue to close marginal stores. Overall, we believe Staples, currently trading at 6.3x our estimate of normalized earnings, ts the description of a good business trading at an unusually attractive valuation.
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Commentary
(Continued from page 3) quarter. Investors ed cyclical stocks, seeking the safe havens in the likes of U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds, as well as dividend paying equities and companies with more stable earnings proles. This has driven the valuation of cyclical (or high beta) stocks to record lows versus stable, or low beta, stocks (Figure 4). demand weakens, protability would likely fall from current levels over the short term. However, since this recovery has been relatively short, companies are generally not experiencing the robust demand that they would after a long period of economic expansion. In other words, they would not be coming off of a peak, as is typical heading into a recession, mitigating the downside. In addition, managements learned in this latest cycle how to restore protability in a very weak demand environment, and have not had the opportunity to forget those lessons quite yet. So if faced with a deteriorating environment, they will likely react quickly once again to cut costs and restructure their processes to gain efciencies. And in the event a downturn is avoided and growth ticks up even modestly, we are likely to experience continued strong prots and cash ows.
Conclusion
When posed the question, will value ever work again? we look to history as our guide, and make a judgment as to whether economic cycles are still relevant, and if we can nd similarities in investor reaction to both fear and greed. There is no shortage of evidence that these primal instincts continue to drive the markets; perhaps technology has aided and abetted market participants in their ability to react even more quickly to these forces. But despite massive stock price volatility and what feels like ve years of uninterrupted pain, the cycles of value investing appear to be rmly intact, with this cycle rhyming with the others.
Figure 5: Free Cash Flow Yields Near Peak Levels Developed Markets Nominal Free Cash Flow Yields* 1986 Through Early-January 2012
7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Period Average
Low Beta
1% 0
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
*Capitalization-weighted data; Data excludes financials Source: Empirical Research Partners Analysis, Pzena Analysis
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Global Strategies Global Value2 EAFE Value2 Emerging Markets Value European Value 40 - 60 30 - 50 40 - 80 40 - 60 500 Largest U.S., 1500 Largest Non-U.S. Companies 1500 Largest Non-U.S. Companies 1500 Largest Emerging Markets Companies 750 Largest European Companies 1/2004 1/2004 1/2008 8/2008
All our strategies follow the same value investment process and philosophy; the primary difference lies in the universe considered for investment.
1
While our investment process includes ongoing review of the companies in the listed universes, our ultimate investment decisions may include companies outside of these ranges at the time of purchase. 2More diversied versions also available.
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Performance Notes
PIM is a registered investment adviser that follows a classic value investment approach. PIM is the operating company of Pzena Investment Management, Inc. Pzena Investment Management, Inc. is a publicly traded company whose shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol PZN. As of 12/31/11, PIM managed $13,519 million in assets under various U.S., international and global value investment strategies. PIM has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the past performance of any accounts or commingled funds managed by PIM should not be considered indicative of the future performance of any accounts or commingled funds managed by PIM. Investment return and principal value of an investment will uctuate over time. Additional information is available upon request regarding policies for calculating and reporting returns. To receive a complete list and description of PIMs composites and/or a full presentation that adheres to the GIPS standards, contact Joan Berger at (212) 583-1291, or write to PIM, 120 West 45th Street, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10036 or [email protected].
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of $1,000 in an account where the average annual return before fees was 10% for a 10-year period, and assuming reinvestment of all dividends and interest, the initial investment would have grown to $1,100 after one year before fees and $1,089 after fees; to $1,611 after ve years before fees and $1,532 after fees; and to $2,594 at the end of ten years before fees and $2,346 after fees. Further discussion regarding our advisory fees is contained in our Form ADV, Part 2A. Composite returns for the EAFE Value Service Composite are benchmarked to the MSCI EAFE Index (the Index). The benchmark is used for comparative purposes only and generally reects the risk or investment style of the investments reported on the schedule of investment performance. The MSCI EAFE Index is a free oat-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada, and is net of withholding tax on dividends from a Luxembourg tax perspective. The Index cannot be invested in directly. Investments made by the Firm for the portfolios it manages in the Pzena EAFE Value Service Composite may differ from those of the MSCI EAFE Index. Composite returns for the Global Value Service Composite are benchmarked to the MSCI World Index (the Index). The benchmark is used for comparative purposes only and generally reects the risk or investment style of the investments reported on the schedule of investment performance. The MSCI World Index is a free oat-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, including the U.S. and Canada, and is net of withholding tax on dividends from a Luxembourg tax perspective. The Index cannot be invested in directly. Investments made by the Firm for the portfolios it manages in the Pzena Global Value Service Composite may differ from those of the MSCI World Index. Investment results for the Composites will differ from those of the benchmark. Composite returns for the European Value Service Composite are benchmarked to the MSCI Europe Index (the Index). The benchmark is used for comparative purposes only and generally reects the risk or investment style of the investments reported on the schedule of investment performance. The MSCI Europe Index is a free oat-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the developed markets in Europe, and is net of withholding tax on dividends from a Luxembourg tax perspective. The Index cannot be invested in directly. Investments made by the Firm for the portfolios it manages in the Pzena European Value Service Composite may differ from those of the MSCI Europe Index. Accordingly, investment results will differ from those of the benchmark. Composite returns for the Emerging Markets Value Service Composite are benchmarked to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (the Index). The benchmark is used for comparative purposes only and generally reects the risk or investment style of the investments reported on the schedule of investment performance. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free oat-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets, and is net of withholding tax on dividends from a Luxembourg tax perspective. The Index cannot be invested in directly. Investments made by the Firm for the portfolios it manages in the Pzena Emerging Markets Value Service Composite may differ from those of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Accordingly, investment results will differ from those of the benchmark. Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or tness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its afliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost prots) even if notied of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCIs express consent. Please note that PIM, LLC has presented a new composite for performance as of 6/30/08 for both the EAFE Value and Global Value Services. The new composite includes all portfolios within each respective product that are not mutual funds. Previously, PIM presented two separate composites for performance that had been linked. The historical returns have also been updated to reect the new, more complete composites. However, for the time period of 1/1/04 to 1/31/06 for the EAFE Value Service, and the time period of 1/1/04 to 4/30/06 for the Global Value Service, there was only one portfolio for each product. These portfolios represented PIMs original funds which consisted of rm and employee capital.
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