L3 Fiscal Trends Taxation in India

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Fiscal Trends in India: Tax

Revenues
L3 Indian Public Finance

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Taxation in India
• Evolution of India’s tax structure
• Tax buoyancy and elasticity
• Progressivity of taxes
• Tax reforms in India: reforms of direct taxes
• Reforms of indirect taxes: Move to wards GST
• Tax expenditures in India

2
Structure of Taxation
• Evolution of Tax Structure
• From Indirect to direct taxes
• From import duties to domestic indirect
taxes
• Stylized facts: Hinrichs

3
Federal Systems
• Issues of Vertical Externality
• Issues of Inter-jurisdictional tax competition

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0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 2 3 4

Traditional direct taxes Trade taxe


Domestic indirect taxes Direct taxes on incomes

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80.00

70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00

Traditional direct taxes


Customs
Domestic indirect taxes
Income and corporate income taxes
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Combined Tax Revenues (%)
  DTR/GDP IDTR/GDP TR/GDP
1950-51 2.291 3.927 6.217
1951-52 2.276 4.617 6.892
1952-53 2.395 4.049 6.444
1953-54 2.113 3.755 5.868
1954-55 2.215 4.431 6.646
1955-56 2.348 4.615 6.963
1956-57 2.192 4.581 6.773
1957-58 2.416 5.304 7.720
1958-59 2.280 4.938 7.219
1959-60 2.378 5.272 7.650
1960-61 2.309 5.446 7.755
1961-62 2.434 5.931 8.365
1962-63 2.824 6.582 9.406
1963-64 3.043 7.166 10.209
1964-65 2.797 6.987 9.784
1965-66 2.620 7.810 10.430
1966-67 2.419 7.865 10.283
1967-68 2.101 7.207 9.307
1968-69 2.136 7.423 9.559
1969-70 2.224 7.476 9.700

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  DTR/GDP IDTR/GDP TR/GDP
1970-71 2.182 8.093 10.275
1971-72 2.365 8.893 11.257
1972-73 2.466 9.324 11.790
1973-74 2.336 8.787 11.123
1974-75 2.339 9.422 11.760
1975-76 2.960 10.317 13.277
1976-77 2.848 10.740 13.589
1977-78 2.607 10.270 12.877
1978-79 2.560 11.383 13.943
1979-80 2.534 11.941 14.476
1980-81 2.248 11.403 13.651
1981-82 2.420 11.715 14.134
1982-83 2.351 11.907 14.258
1983-84 2.206 11.964 14.169
1984-85 2.138 12.229 14.368
1985-86 2.222 13.157 15.379
1986-87 2.188 13.547 15.736
1987-88 2.091 13.831 15.922
1988-89 2.298 13.466 15.764
1989-90 2.289 13.642 15.931

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  DTR/GDP IDTR/GDP TR/GDP
1990-91 2.152 13.248 15.400
1991-92 2.544 13.218 15.762
1992-93 2.576 12.594 15.170
1993-94 2.508 11.579 14.086
1994-95 2.843 11.712 14.555
1995-96 3.002 11.703 14.705
1996-97 2.978 11.605 14.584
1997-98 3.309 11.140 14.449
1998-99 2.805 10.501 13.306
1999-00 3.118 10.949 14.066
2000-01 3.413 11.109 14.523
2001-02 3.205 10.584 13.789
2002-03 3.554 10.940 14.494
2003-04 3.961 11.012 14.973
2004-05 4.385 11.427 15.812
2005-06 4.838 11.790 16.628
2006-07 5.133 11.731 16.864

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20.0

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0
10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

DTR/GDP IDTR/GDP TR/GDP

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100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00

Share of direct taxes Share of indirect taxes

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90.00

80.00

70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00

Centre: Share of Direct Taxes Share of Indirect Taxes

12
120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00

States: Share of Direct Taxes Share of Indirect Taxes

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Measuring Buoyancy and Elasticity
• Buoyancy: percentage change in tax
revenue/percentage change in tax base (often
proxied by GDPmp)
• Buoyancy over a period of time measured by
fitting a double log equation with tax revenue as
dependent variable and tax base as the
independent variables.
• Tax base can be decomposed between real and
price components.
14
7.000

6.000
5.000

4.000

3.000
2.000

1.000

0.000
-1.000

-2.000

b(TTR)

15
8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
0.000
-1.000
-2.000
-3.000

b(CT RG) b(ST ROWN)

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